Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
January 1942
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00068

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text
7- -7

TW:..


CUS) SITUATION

N. .. BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UN'ITE41 STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

JANUARY 1942




IENS AND PULLtTS ON FARMS JANUARY 1. EGGS PER LAYER. AND
S:: TOTAL EGG PRODUCTION ON FARMS. UNITED STATES. 1910-41
1 NENiID -- 1 EGGS PER
PULLETS LAYER*

SLLIONS ... NUBE110


105


100


95


90

85

80
EGGS
PRODUCED
DOZENS
I BILLIONS I


3.0


2.7


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940
DATA PROM A.I.M. a uLImAMr I E ESTIMATE
*AVERAOE HUNIIUDI OF nal PaalUObU AHALLY mA RMIAND PULLET ON FARM& JAN. I


L.L UYUEST OF AUREiCLIO


"99. 2I211 | UNIAU OF ASlIuLTURAL IcOlluEI


*Tv. NUMBER.OF POTENTIAL LAYERS NOW ON FARMS IS MORE THAN 8 PERCENT LARGER
THAN A YEAR AGO, ANO THE EXCESS OVER A YEAR EARLIER IS EXPECTED TO IbCREASE
DURING COMING MONTHS. WITH FLOCKS COMPOSED OF A LARGER PROPORTION OF PULLETS,
A HIGH AVERAGE RATE OF LAY PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE. IT IS EVIDENT, THEREFORE,
THAT THE REVISED PRODUCTION GOAL FOR 1942 (13 PERCENT OVER 1941 PRODUCTION)
-ill LINE WITH PROBABLE OUTPUT.




. A'


THE EGG SITUATION


EGGS I
Sboss II CHICAGO F















CASES I
S191-40
6


5



CASES I
MILLIONS 1EU.GS. STOCKS








4



16 -------
2 194



NUMBER [ --- --
AN.EGGS PROD

















AMS D
1941 OF Td
16 n













JAN. APR.
A M S D
18a OF TH
isr OF THi

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


I I NUMBER I I
UCED PER LAYER I MILLIONS I LAYERS ON I


325


%. 300 -


275 ----- --
ie J Average
1930-59



225
JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY
ATA. EXCEPT NONHAcGRULTURIAL EMPLOYEE 'COMPENIATIOM
E MONTH. EXCLUDES U. 8 D. A. MOLDIN0S. BEGINNING APRIL 1. 1940
E MONTH EXCLUDE I. B. D A. MOLDIN08. BEOIINING JULY 1. 1941

NEG. )STeS *UREAU OF AGIRCI


OCT.




CULTURAL ECONOMICS


FiouME I


I






PS-61


THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATI ON T.'


Summary

Production of poultry products responded rapidly to favorable prices

in 1941, and further material increases are expected this year. The demand

for poultry and eggs will average greater than in 1941,however, and prob-

ably will more than offset the effects on prices of the increased supplies.

The 1942 goal for egg production has been revised upward to a level

about 13 percent larger than the 1941 output. The expanded goal, however,

is within the range of probable output. The number of potential layers in

flocks of crop reporters on January 1 was more than S percent larger than

on January 1, 1941 and the margin over a year earlier is expected to increase

in coming months. Laying flocks are composed of a slightly larger proportion

of pullets this year than last, thus helping to assure a continued high rate

of production per layer. Prices received by farmers for eggs this year are

expected to average higher than in 1941, and the feed-egg ratio probably will

be a little more favorable than average despite the probable higher feed prices.

Egg production in December was 15 percent larger than in December 1940,

and the rate of lay per hen on January 1 was 9. percent larger than on January 1

last year. Production of eggs and the volume marketed were retarded by the

cold weather in early January with the result that wholesale prices of eggs

remained steady from mid-December to mid-January. Usually prices decline

several cents during that period. In the third week of January the wholesale

price of fresh firsts at Chicago was 33 cents per dozen, 90 percent higher

than a year earlier.

The number of chickens raised on farms is expected to increase further

this year, as indicated in earlier outlook statements, and the output of


- 3 -





JANUARY 1942 4 -

commercial broilers probably will continue at record levels during much of

the year. Although total slaughter supplies and per capital consumption of

chickens this year probably will be the largest on record, prices received

by farmers for chickens may average higher than in 1941.

Merketings of chickens in the Midwest also were retarded by the un-

favorable weather and as a result wholesale prices of live chickens at

Chicago increased during the first half of January. Storage holdings of

dressed fowl and chickens on January 1 were the largest on record but whole-

sale prices of dressed stock advanced further during the first part of

January. Although wholesale prices of turkeys declined following the

Christmas marketing period, they are continuing considerably higher than a

year earlier. Turkey production in the United States this year is expected

to reach a new high.

-- January 22, 1942

EGG SITUATION

REVIEW OF RECE-T DEVELOPMENTS

The average number of layers on forms during December was about 7
percent larger than in December 1940. The average rate of lay in December
was the highest on record for the seventh consecutive month, being 8 percent
higher than in December 1940. Total egg output was about 15 percent in ex-
cess of the output in December 1940. On January 1 the average number of eggs
laid per hen was 9 percent larger than a year earlier, and with the number
of layers in flocks of crop reporters averaging about 8 percent larger, total
egg output on the first day of this year is estimated at about 18 percent
over that of a year earlier.

The rate of lay -er hen was retarded by the general cold weather in
early Jao... -- bat ircreased again as the cold subsided. Prior to December
1941, :.".* ,*.. o7 .-,-;. at principal markets were smaller than a year earlier
des Ltn ,. .- heavy rE.ceipts at primary markets in the Midwest. In 1941
la-erge sc-nnn. r. in -*hse producing area were used in drying plants or for ship-
me,'. to i"' .. xry camps while only small quantities were so used in 1940. As
pi *L..cti'c.' began increasing seasonally in December the margin of receipts at
midwest markets over a year earlier became even more pronounced and receipts
at the four principal markets for December were larger than in December 1940.
Receipts of eggs at the four principal markets in 1941 totaled 13,479,000
cases compared with 14,224,000 cases in 1940.







Number of layers on farms. United States

Year Jan., Feb. Mar.- Apr.. May aJune.,July Aug.:Sept., Oct., Nov.: Dec.
; i. M Lil. NililMil. Mil. l. il. il. MXil. Mil. Mil.
Average: ... -
1939-39: 332 -325 315 301 2s4 267 253 246 256 278 300 322

1938 : 307 301 292 278 262 248 236 234 245 269 293 314
1939 : 322 316 306 292 276 260 246 242 253 279 305 326
1940 : 332 327 318 304 289 270 252. 247 257 279 303 320
1941 s324 318 308 295 20o 266 254 e249 263 291 318 341
I I___ I______ I I_ ___ II__________

Average number of eggs produced per layer, United States

Tear Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.! May June July Aug.;Sept.: Oct. Nov.: Dec.
g, No. No. o. No. No. No. No.- No. 'No. No.
Average: ..
1930-39: 6.6 8.9 14.3 16.7 16. 14.2 12.7 11.2 8.9 6.s 5.0 5.2

1938 : 7.9 9.9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 11.8 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 8.0 9.7 14.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3- 7.4 6.0 6.8
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.s 13.4 11.8 9.7 7.9 6.2 6.8
1941 : 8.7 10.3 15.0 16.9 17.4 15.1 13.8 12.2 .10.0 8.2 6.5 7.3

Total farm production of eggs, United States

Year Jan.: Feb.: Mar. Apr.' May :June :July Aug. Sept.' Oct. Nov. Dec.
Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Nil. Nil. Mil. Mil.
:eases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average:
1930-39: 6.0 8.0 12.5 13.9 13.2 10.5 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.2 4.1 4.7

1938 : 6.7 8.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.s 5.5
1939 : 7.2 8.5 12.6 13.8 13.0 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 8.2 12.7 14.0 13.7 11.1 9.4 8.1 7.0 6.1 5.2 6.o
1941 : 7.9 9.1 12.8 13.9 13.5 11.1 9.7 8.5 7.4 6.6 5.7 6.9

Agricultural Marketing Service data.

Purchases of Egs b_ the Department
of Aricr-Lure Jin 19g* Totaled
About 8 MHJ .lcrn .Jaes

The quantities of shell, dried, and frozen eggs purchased by the
Department of Agriculture in 1941 were equivalent to about 8 million cases.
The quantities of the three forms are given in the accompanying table. A
part of the dried eggs contracted for up to January 1 was for delivery in
1942.


PzS-61


- 5 -






JANUARY 1942


- 6 -


Purchases of eggs by the Department of Agriculture

n ;Shell : "
Date : Direct : Blue Stamp : -Jrczsen : Dried
: purchases : purchases.: -, __
1941 : Cases Cases 1.000 pounds 1,000 pounds
Month: :


Jan. ..........:
Feb. ..........
Mar. .. .........:
Apr ..........
May ...........:
June ..........
July ..........:
Aug. ........ .:
Sept. .........
Oct. ..........
Nov. ......... .


4,003
173,003
72,191
386,925
398,711
. 38,401
316,535
96,736
88.150
92.395
15.700


Dec. ..........: 72,091
Total ....: 1,75.8414


120,000 0 0
133,000 0 0 o
157,000 o o
173,000 0 0
170.000 15.527 .s4o
184,000 6,240 .735
16,00ooo 42,218 4,750
200,000 2,205 6,525
is3,0ooo 5.546
186,0ooo 0. 1i,687
112,000 .0 4,247
--- 0 9.284
--- 66,190 44,614


1942
Week ended:
Jan. 3 I/......: 20,994 ---
10 ........: 46,743 ---
17 ......... 42,668 --

Surplus Marketing Administration data.
I/ Jan. 1 to Jan. 3.


:301
1,224
2,431


As a result of the heavy Government demands for dried eggs during 1941,
egg-drying facilities were expanded several-fold. At the beginning of 1942
total egg-drying capacity in the United States was somewhat prer 200 million
pounds, based on 300-day operation at 20-22 hours per day. The existing
capacity is adequate to supply all requirements now in prospect.

Privately Owned Storage Stocks of Shell
Eggs on January 1, 4 Percent Smaller
Than a, Year Earlier

Because of the large quantities of fresh eggs and storage eggs (mostly
shell) used for. drying during the latter part of 1941, storage stocks declined
about seasonally despite the much larger current farm production of eggs. On
January 1 stocks of privately owned shell eggs in the United States were about
4 percent smaller than a year earlier. Holdings by the Department of Agricul-
ture were down about 17 percent, leaving total stocks of shell eggs about 10
percent smaller than on January 1, 1941. Privately owned stocks of frozen
eggs on January 1 were about 12 percent larger than on January 1, 1941. The
Department of Agriculture owned the equivalent of about 360,000 cases of fro-
zen eggs on January 1 whereas a year earlier no eggs were so held. Total
stocks of frozen eggs, therefore, were about 22 percent larger than .on January],
1941. In addition to the storage stocks of shell and frozen eggs on January 1
there were considerable quantities of dried eggs. Including dried eggs the
Department of Agriculture on January 1 owned the equivalent of about 1-2/3






PES-61


- 7 -


million cases of egg-s. Private stocks consisted of about 2-1/2 million cases
of shell and frozen eggs and an undetermined quantity of dried eggs.

Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States and storage movement at 35'markets

:United States : Out-of-storage movement, week ending as of l*42
Year : stock I/ : Dec. : January : Feb.
:Jan. l':Dec. 1 : 26 : 3 : 10 : 17 : 24 : 31 : 7
: 1,000' 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Shell : cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average :
1931-40 : 819 2,128 213 2j 160 132 93 70 53 38

1940 : 532 1,424 196 ,85 103 S6 100 46 14
1941 : 313 1,278 124 139 102 49 58 72 20
1942 :I/ 300 118 67 74

Frozen 4:
Average :
1931-40 : 1,893 2,193 --- --- --- -

1940 : 1,927 2,434 72 4S .6o 54 71 71 67
1941 : 1.955 2,757 76 .60 87 85 77 s4 67
1942. :2,188 89 107 89

Agricultural Marketing Service data.
i/ Excludes United States De-oartment of Agriculture holdings as follows:
Shell eggs on December 1, 1940. 545,000 cases; on January 1, 1941, 301,000
* cases; on December 1, 1941, 392,000 cases; and on January 1, 1942, 251,000
cases. Frozen eggs on December 1, 1941, 698,000 cases, and on January 1,
1942, 361,000 cases.
? Average 1932-40.
* 3] Preliminary,
Converted on the basis of 37.5 pounds to the case.

Liquid Egg Yield from Shell
.. ggs has been Increased

As a result of the expansionn of the liquid egg industry during the
past several years the average size of eggs used has increased. To allow
for this development the *Denartment hIs adopted a new set of conversion
factors for determining the shell-egg equivalent of frozen eg -s in storage.
Since the increase in size and improvement in quality of eggs used have
been gradual developments varying conversion factors have been established
for the years 1916 to date. The conversion factors for the indicated years
follow:






JANUARY 1942


Years Conversion factor

Pounds
per case

1916-20 35.0
1921-25 35.5.
1926-30 36.0
1931-33 36.5
1934-36 37.0
1937 onward 37.5

The conversion factor formerly used for all years was 35 pounds per
case.

E g Prices Declining Less
than Seasonally

Wholesale prices for eggs were fairly steady from mid-December to
mid-January. Usually prices decline several cents during this period. The
stable prices this year are mostly the result of the reduction in supplies
following the cold weather. The price of fresh firstsat Chicago in the third
week of January was 33 cents, 90 percent higher than a year earlier. During
the last half of December the Department of Agriculture purchased a'little
over 5,000 cases of eggs on the New York and Chicago Mercantile Exchanges for
price-supporting purposes. The decline in supplies in early January made
further purchases for price-support unnecessary during the first half of the
month.

Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs, United States

Year Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec,
: 15 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 15 : 15 : 15 15 : 15 1 5 1
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1930-39: 22.8 18.8 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 17.o0 18.7 21.9 24.7 28.2 26.3

1938 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.0 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
1939 : 18.8 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
194 : 18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2 26.8
1941 : 19.7 16.8 16.4 19.7 20.1 23.2 25.6 26.8 30.3 31.8 35.5 34.1

Agricultural Marketing Service data.

OUTLOOK EGGS

BACKGROUND.- Prior to 1929 the number of hens and pullets in
flocks of crop reporters reached the annual peak on February 1.
However, as the commercial hatchery industry expanded, farmers
purchased an increasing proportion of their chicks rather than
home-hatching them, and baby chicks were started earlier in
the season. This development together with reduction in time
required for pullets to mature resulted in a stepping up of the


- 8 -






PBS-6l 9-

beginning of. the laying season, Pullets came into production
earlier in the fall and laying 'flecks on the average in the
United States, weae largest on Jahuary 1 instead of on Febru-
ary 1. -Consequently laying flocks have reached the annual
peak on January 1 in every year since 1928 with the exception
of 1938. Because of the drought of 1936 feed prices were
high during the main part of the 1937 hatching season and
some delay resulted both in starting the chicks and in ma-
turing the pullets. This probably accounts for the larger
number of layers on February 1, 1938 than on January 1 of
,that year... The late hatch in 1941 was the largest on record
for the period.

Production Goals Have Been Revised

Sipce the production goals for several commodities were established
last September the prospective demands for many farm products- have increased.
To meet these additional demands the Department of Agriculture on January 16
announced the revision of 1942 production goals for many commodities. For
eggs the goal was increased from about 4 billion dozens as established last
September to 4,200 million dozens. These figures include an allowance for
nonfarm production which is estimated at about 10 percent of the farm output.
In terms of farm production the revised goal calls for 3,8?.2 million dozens
compared with the September goal of 3,700 million dozens and the 1941 pro-
duction of 3,393 million dozens. The revised 1942 production goal therefore
is 12.6 percent larger than the 1941 output. It exceeds the 1940 output by
18 percent and the 1936-40 average production by 23 percent. If the goal is
'reached the prospective lend-lease requirements of somewhat over 600 million
dozens (shell-egg equivalent, compared with 500 million formerly anticipated)
can be fully met while maintaining domestic p6r capital supplies at the-average
for recent years.

Number of Potential Layers Now
Considerably Larger Than a Year

On January 1 the number of potential layers in crop reporters'
flocks (of less than 400 birds) was 8.1 percent larger than on January 1, 1941.
The average number of layers on farms in the United States in December, includ-
ing flocks of more than 400 birds, was 7 percent larger than a year earlier.
During the last few months of 194l1 the number of birds in flocks of more than
400 layers increased greater than usual relative to the flocks of smaller size.

The increase in layers over a year earlier is expected to increase
further during cunmi-.g months. The most Important basis for this expectation
is the favorable fed-egg price relationship in prospect, Alt-.ough the feed-
egg raLio meay not be as Iavorable in 1942 as it w-s last year, i' t.s expected
to be more favorable than average. As a result farmers will keep a&E many
hens for egg production as possible. During the first 3 months of 1941 the
feed-egg ratio was considerably less favorable than average, sn the incentive
to keep all available hens was not as great as it probbl wi,1 be this year.
A second factor is that this year's laying flocks are composed of a slightly
larger proportion of pullets than those in early 1941. On January 1 the
average number of hens per flock, 31.1 head, was 3 percent larger than a year






JANUARY 1942


earlier while the number of all pullets was 10 percent larger than the 65.7
head average an January 1, 1914 Of the potential layers in farm flocks
(including pullets not of laying age) on January 1, 70'percent were pullets
compared with 69 percent in early 1941. Because of the favorable egg prices
in prospect, all available pullets probably will be utilized Tor laying
purposes.

Hi Rate of ay Likely to Cohtinue

The rate of lay per hen in 1941 was the largest on record and con-
tinued at record levels until the cold weather in early January. The favor-
able feed-egg ratio in prospect and the larger proportion of pullets in laying
flocks will help to maintain a continued high rate of output per bird, The
newly announced program of the Department of Agriculture to release.wheat at
prices comparable to corn prices will improve the poultry feed situation in
some areas. All factors considered, therefore, it appears' likely that the
revised production goal for eggs is within the range of probable output. With
unusually favorable weather and ample feed supplies throughout 1942 it may
even be exceeded. In the Nation-wide farm canvass recently completed, farmers
indicated that they intended to produce even more eggs than are called for in
the revised production goal.

Period of Price Support Extended

As part of the announcement revising the production goals the
Secretary proclaimed that prices for eggs and chickens (excluding broilers)
and some other commodities would be supported at not less than 85 percent of
parity through June 30, 1943 rather than just to December 31, 1942 as an-
nounced in September 1941. As applied to eggs, the Department will make pur-
chases if necessary in the open market, within the limit of available funds,
to keep the United States average price received by farmers for eggs at not
less than 85 percent of parity*

With the stronger average consumer demand in prospect for.this year
than in 1941, and the lend-lease purchases expected to be made, it is likely
that egg prices this year will average higher than in 1941, Considerable
price declines probably will occur during the weeks immediately ahead, however,
as market supplies .increase seasonally.

THE POULTRY SITUATION

REVIEW 07 RECENT DEVLOPMENTS

Far Marketing Continuing Larger
- han a Year Earlier

Receipts of young chickens at midwest primary markets during the week
ended January 10 were 23 percent larger than a year earlier* Larger market-
ings after the first of the year were to be expected in view of the heavy late-
season hatch in 1941 and the fact that the number of young chickens on farms
an January 1 was 12 percent larger than en .January 1, 1941. Marketing 'n
early January were retarded considerably by the general cold weather in the
Midwest* Receipts of dressed poultry at the four principal markets since the


- 10 -








THE POULTRY SITUATION


POUNDS
(M ILMtONS-)


18





..15 .


PolwiqEas
11 |LLION$ I


0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS
60


12 i ii I ,I L
S. JAN. APR. JULY' OCT.. JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A. M. I. DATA .* FarST'OF THK MdITH *'JNGLUDES BROILBS. PRYeArI. AND ROASTEpI
L S. DEPAiTMENT OF AGRICULrURE "* ME 39452 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOItCS


FIGURE 2


,g ,v -- ;, .* -. .
RECELP.TS OF DRESSED -
- R. W-LTR-Y AT 4 MARKETS -


1.






JANUARY 1942


- 12 -


Christmas peak in receipts also have been larger than a year earlier. These
data include the movement of frozen poultry and therefore may continue very
heavy, mostly because of the record large cold storage holdings of poultry
this year.

Receipts of dressed poultry at four markets

(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston)
: Week ending as of 1942
Year ; Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : Nov. : Dec.
: 0 : 1 7 : 24 : 31 : 7 : 28 : 28 : 19 : 26
: 1,000 1,0 1,00oo 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average:
1931-4o: 5,414 5,143 5,649 6,204 5.736 4,644 3,644 13,821 26,464 9,714

1940 : 5.973 6,o037 7,678 8,628 6,111 5,634 4,395 16,500 36,909 10,766
1941 : 5,538 4,291 6,s814 6,461 6,377 4,934 4,620 12,881 34,845 13,738
1942 : 6,432 4,626 5,550

Agricultural Marketing Service data.

Storage Holdings of Chickens and
Fowl Largest on Record

Although the consumption of chicken meat was about the largest on
record during the last few months of 1941, storage stocks on January 1 ex-
ceeded previous record holdings. Stocks of broilers were up 26 percent over
a year ago, stocks of fryers were 27 percent larger, and holdings of roasters
were 30 percent larger than on January 1, 1941. Stocks of fowl on the first
of the year were about 7 percent larger than at the beginning of last year,
despite the smaller farm marketing of fowl during the past several months.
The storage demand for all poultry has been stronger than in the fall and
winter of 1940-41, and the price of young chickens has been low relative to
prices of fowl.

Poultry: Storage stocks in the United States and
storage movement at 35 markets

: United States : Storage movement, week ending as of 1942
Year : stocks : Dec. : Jan. : Feb.
: Jan. 1 : Dec. 1 : 26 : 3 10 : 17 : 24 :31 : 7
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Sounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average :
1931-40 : 131,429 112,695 .3,790 V/-2,356 sis -1,424 -1,206 -1.366 -2,143
1940 : 167,643 159,110 t8,926 t3,618 321 210 344 616 +2,883
1941 208,365 172,913 .6,657 *5,34 -1,oo00 -4.441 -3.489 -3,839 -4,610
1942 :2/218,374 *5.468 t 674 -5.268

Agricultural Marketing Service data.
1 Average 1932-40. 2/ Preliminary.






Fowl and Chicken Prices Strengthened Further

Wholesale prices of live fowl and young chickens at Chicago advanced
materially from mid-December to mid-January. These price increases were
the result of a continued heavy demand for current consumption and some de-
cline in market supplies due to the cold weather during the first part of
January. Prices received by producers for commercial broilers declined to
a relatively low level in early December and a marked decline in the demand
for broiler chicks occurred. The price soon recovered, however, and in
mid-January prices were the highest-in several months. Wholesale prices
for dressed stock also advanced materially from mid-December to mid-January.

Price per pound received by farmers for live chickens,
United States


Year: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr. :May June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: 11ov.: Dec.
Year 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cens Centfs Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1930-39: 14.0 14.2 14,4 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.1 14.0 14.3 13.7 13.3 12.9


1938 : 16,7 16.0 15,9
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14,3
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.8
1941 : 13.7 14.0 14,4
** t .


16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14,2
14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13,0
12.9 13.6 13.3 13,6 13,4
15.7 16.3 16,3 16.8 16,3


14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
13.7 13.3 13.1 13.0
16,3 16.0 15.5 15.8


Agricultural Marketing Service data.

Poultry, lives Wholesale price, by classes, at Chicago,
average 1936-40 and selected dates 1940-42
: Av. : 1940 : 1941 : 1942
:1936-: : : : : : Week ending
Class 40 : Dec. : Jan. : Feb.: Mar.: Dec. : Jan. : Jan. : Jan.
: Jan.: : : : : 3 : 10 : 17
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Hens:
Over 5 pounds ...: 18.8 15.5 16.9 16.7 17.4 20.0 21.7 23.2 23.0
5 pounds and under : 19.0 13.5 18.0 18.4 20.5 18.3 21.1 23.2 23.3
Leghorn ...........: 14.4 10.9 13.2 14.6 16.4 14.7 16,0 16.7 18.0
Spring chickens:
4 pounds and over ,/:
Colored .......e..: 18.7 16.5 18.1 19.5 20.6 18.4 20.7 20.5 22.9
White Rook .......: 20.4 18.0 19.6 21.2 23.2 19.6 21.9 21.5 23.3
Barred Rock ......: 20.5 17.6 19.8 21,8 23.6 19.3 22.3 21.2 23.3
Under 4 pounds
Colored : 18.2 16.1 17.6 18.4 19.3 17.8 19.4 18.5 18.2
White Rock .......: 19.3 17..7 18.9 19.4 21.2 18.7 20.3 19.1 18.2
Barred Rock ......: 19.8 17.6 19.5 20.1 22.1 20.6 21.3 20.2 20.2
Broilers t
2-1/2 pounds and :
under :
Colored .........: 18.8 16.6 17.2 17.8 18,9 17.6 19.4 18.5 18.2
White Rook s.....: 19.6 17.5 18.0 18.6 20.5 18.0 19.9 18.8 18.2
Barred Rook ......: 20.1 17.9 18.0 18.9 21.0 19.8 21.3 19.5 19.2
Turkeys: :
Tounr hens 20,5 18,2 18.6 190 20.8 246 7.2 26.0 26.0
o to ; 7 154 155 17 1 1 55 e20 0 21,0
ZCoputed from qua'fons 3in C icagoP lae Current.
I/Four-year average. No quotations for 1937. 2/ Computed from all quotations
an young toms, ine uding classes by wvip-h+s.


- 13 *


PES-61





JANUARY 1942


OUTLOOK CHICKENS

BACKGROUND.- With the phenomenal expansion in commercial broiler
production, it has become increasingly desirable that producers
of such chickens plan their operations to avoid marketing large
numbers at the same time that marketing in general farming
areas are at a seasonal high level* Heavy marketing from these
two sources during the last few months of 1941 coincided to a
considerable degree and were accompanied by relatively low
prices for young chickens.

Rising Chicken Prices Strengthened
Demand for Brol-er Chicks

The relatively low chicken prices in early December and continually
advancing feed prices resulted in numerous cancellations of orders for baby
chicks. This vas accompanied by a sharp drop in the number of eggs set dar-
ing December. The number increased during the last half of the month,
however, and the total for December was 31 percent larger than the number
set in December 1940. The number of chicks hatched wvs 52 percent larger
than -in December 1940 On Japuary 1 the number, of chicks on advanced order,
for various delivery dates, was 54 percent larger than a year earlier. The
rise in chicken prices during the past several .weeks has resulted in a marked
strengthening in the demand for baby chicks in commercial broiler areas.

Continued Heavy Production of
Chickens in Prospect

Although prices received by farmers for chickens in 1941 were low
relative to prices of most other farm products and to feed prices, it is
expected that the number of chickens raised on farms this year will be even
larger than the number raised last year. A favorable feed-egg ratio is more
important in determining the farmers* demand 'for chicks in general farming
areas than the feed-chicken ratio* The feed-egg ratio in 1942 is expected
to be relatively more favorable than the feed-chicken ratio.

The revised goal of chicken slaughter for 1942 (644 million head),
* as announced by the.Secretary on January 16, is 10 percent larger than the
estimated slaughter in 1941. The slaughter figure consists of the number
of chickens consumed on farms and the number sold. This figure is not com-
- parable with published data for-earlier years, however, because a consider-
able number of commercial broilers have been removed front the data on
general farm production of chickens, on the basis of information which
recently became available. Data closely comparable to the goal figure will
be published by the Agricultural Marketing Service within a few months.

The 10-percent increase in slaughter of farm-chickens was estimated
on the assumption that the slaughter of fowl this year would be considerably
larger than in 1941 and the increase over last year in the number of chickens
raised on farms would be about 7 percent. The increase in number of chicks
farmers intend to purchase this-year will be estimated in the annual February
* survey. On the basis of these findings and other developments in the imme-
diate weeks, an estimate of the increase in the number of chickens raised on
farmsawill be made and published as usual in the March issue of this report.


- 14 -






PES-61


- 15 a


Outleok for Chioken Prices

Although supplies of chicken meat will be considerably larger in 1942
than in 1941 it is fairly likely that the United States average price re-,
oeived'by farmers for chickens will average higher this year than in 19414 .
--The domestic. supplies of other meats. this year also will be mch larger th'p-
in 1941 but with the prospects for a stronger average consumer, demand and
an advance in the general price level it is expected that prices received by
farmers for livestock and livestock products will average higher in 1942
than in 1941.' prices received by farmers for fowls and young chickens
probably will be in A more nearly normal relationship than they were. during
most of 1941.

An addationtl factor in the farmr chicken price outlook is that the
Department of Agriculture intends to purchase for lend-lease a considerable
quantity of canned-boned chicken in 1942.

Commercial Broiler Output Expected
to Continue at Record Levels

In extending the period during ihich chicken prices will be supported
at not less than 85 percent of parity, the Secretary specifically stated
--that prices of commerciall Broilees are not to be supported. Connroial
broiler production has increased at a phenomenal rate during the past few.
years, and ka view of the fact that per cdpita consumption of chicken meat .
this year will be by .far the largest on record it is difficult to estimate
how nuch empansidn in permanent broiler facilities wduld be desirable.

Although an increased broiler output may be absorbed at favorable
prices during.most of 1942, it may be costly for individual raisers to
materially expand expensive permanent facilities at this time. It would be
desirable for broiler producers, therefore, to attempt to raise no more
broilers than can be handled with present facilities and to avoid market-
ing large numbers at.the .same time that marketing in general farming areas -
are at a seasonally high level. Supplies of young chickens that will come
from general farming areas during the last part of 1942 are expected to be,
the largest on eeord.

FEED SITUATION

Supplies of feed gainss, hay, and high-protein, feeds are the largest
in more than 20 years. Consumption of feed grains during 1941-42 is ex-
pected to be larger than the 1941 crop, so that the carry-over into 1942-43
probably will be-smaller than at the beginning of 1941-42.

Feed grain prices advanced about 25 percent during 1941 and byproduct
feed prices advanced about 35 percent. The strong demand for feed and the
higher loan on 1942 corn are expected to hold feed prices during 1942 near
or above the late 1941 level. The policy established early in 1941 of sell-
ing Government-owned corn stocks will continue through 1942. The feed-
production goal has been increased along with livestock goals. In addition,
provision was recently made whereby approximately 100 million bushels of
wheat owned by the Commodity Credit Corporation was offered for sale to







producers of livestock products. Under this plan the feed wheat sales price
per bushel for cracked wheat delivered to the purchaser will be the leaer
of (1) the 1941 wheat loan value at point of delivery, or (2) the Conmodity
Credit Corporation sale price for corn per bushel at point of delivery.
Producers may order the wheat "thiouh'-'their dealers or direct from the
regional offices of the Corporation. Detailed information as to the offer-
ing price of feed wheat at deliveryy points can be obtained from the county
offices of the Agricultural Adjustnmnt' Administration or the Regional Offices
of the Conmodity Credit Corporation,

The cost -of poultry ration at Chicago advanced steadily during the
4 weeks ended in mid-January to the highest level since 1937. Because of
the steady egg prices at Chicago since mid-December,'however, the feed-egg
ratio in mid-January was more favorable than a year earlier and more favor-
able than average. The feed-egg ratio in 1942 is expected to be more favor-
able than average but probably not as favorable as the average for 1941.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)
a Week ending as of 1942
Year a January : Feb.: Mar,;July : Oct.: Nov.: Dee.
1 3 : 10 : 17 : 24 : 31 : 28 28 : 25 : 31 : 28 :19 26
a Do. Doz. Doz Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Do:, Do:. Doz. Doi. Doz.'
Average:
1931-40: 5.04 5.54 5,76 5.82 5.88 6.41 6,72 6.68 4,44 4.29 4.90 4.92

1940 : 6.72 6.66 6,32 5.38 5.56 6.98 7.59 7.61 5,61 4.53 4.75 5.62
1941 : 5.74 6.37 6.86 7.16 7.13 7.38 6,57 5,30 4.55 35,99 4,70 4.87
1942 : 4.94 5.12 5.14

Agricultural MarkeTig Service data.

TURKEYS

Wholesale prices of live turkeys at Chicago have declined somewhat
since the Christmas holiday period but are continuing much higher than a year
earlier. The average price received by farmers for turkeys in mid-December
was 20.9 cents, 5 cents higher than a year earlier and the highest farm
price since 1935.

The into-storage movement of turkeys during December was the largest
on record but storage holdings on January 1 were 17 percent smaller than a
year earlier.

Because of the favorable outcome of turkey raising during 1941, a
considerable increase in production is expected this year. A material in-
crease in turkey supplies probably could be absorbed in 1942 at prices which
compare favorably with prices in 1941,


JANUARY 1942


- 16 -







Price per pound received by farmers for live turkey, United States

I Jan.: Feb.: 0ar.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aug.: Sept.: Oct.: Nov.. Dec.
Year 15 a 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 a 15 a 15 : 15 a 15 : 15 : 15
sCents Cents' CCeEntBs CeCs Cents re Cents 'enrs Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average a
1935-39s 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.2 15.5 14 .7 14.6 14.4 15.3 16.1 17.2 17.5

1938 a 17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.4 15.6 15.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 17.1 -le-4
1939 u 18.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6.. 14.7 .14.4..14,3 -.15.4 15.3 16.0 15.6
1940 s 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13,4 14.3 14.7 15.5 15.9
1941 15.5 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.4 .15.4 15.8 16.1 17.5 18.8 20.2 20.9

Agricultural Marketing Service data.....

DOLIESTIC DEADD

National income probably will be at least 10 billion dollars greater
in 1942 than in 1E41. Incomes of i.nduatrial workers will be over 15 percent
greater than in 1941, and nearly double what they were at the beginning of
the war. But increased taxes applying to individuals may hold the not in-
crease in the money purchasing power of consumers in 1942, over the average
for 1941, to not much more than 5 percent. The net result of increased
money incomes, taxes, and defense bond.purchases may-leave the money income
of consumers available for purchase of commodities and services in 1942 as
a whole not much different from the present level. For some groups it will
be even less than in 1941. Increased war production, however, will sub-
stantially reduce the quantity of factory products remaining for civilian
use, probably to less than the quantity in 1940, so that consumer income in
relation to available supplies of goods will be increased. This should add
to the consumer demand for farm products in 1942 compared with 1941.

Total nonagricultural employees' compensation, United States

Yr(Index numbers 1924-29 100)
Year Jane. Feb. Mar.: Apr. May June: July: Aug..Sept.. Oct.. Nov. Dec.
Average:
1930-39: 83.2 835.2 84.1 84.0 .84.e6 84.6. 81.0 81.6 84,0 86.1 84.9 85.7

1939 : 94.4 94.6 96,6 95.5 96.9 98.9 94.7 96.6 100.1 104.6 104.7 106.5
1940 :101.4 101.1 102.6 102.8 104.7. Q05. .102.4 104.7 109,0 113.3 -113.2 117,3
1941 :115.2 117.5 119.9 121.9 2id,7 130.6 128.1 130.6 134.9 137.7 .138.2

--- Adjuste.d for .seasonal variation '
Average:
1930-39: 84.3 84.2 84.0 83.6 83.8 84.0 83.7 84.0 83.7 83.9 83.9 84.0

1939 : 95.4 96.0 96.7 95.4' 96,6' 98.9 98,3 99.6 99.6 101.5 102.6 103,5
1940 :102.6 102.5 102.7 102.7 104.3 105.1 106.4 108.0 108.6 109.9 110.7 114.1
1941 :117.4 120.3 121.3 122.3 126.4 129,8 130,9 132.4 132.9 134.4 /136.1

Based on data from the Department of Commerce and the National Bureau of
Economic Research.
1/ Preliminary. ..* .


PES-61


* 17 *




JANUARY 1942


- 18 -


3 1262 08904 0611


INDEX OF SPECIAL SUBJECTS DISCUSSED IN THE
POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION
m -- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---


Issue.


Factors for determining shell egg equivalent of
frozen-eggs in storage, 1916-20 .........

Index numbers of seasonal variation in egg
prices-far 1942 ..........esue ee..............

Poultry producers and the 1942 fa. prgrea..... *

Outlook for turkeys, 1941-42 ...................

Outlook for chickens and eggs in 1942 ..........

Nonagricultural employees' compensation, a
new measure of consumer demand ................

Wholesale prices of live fowls and chickens at
Chicago: index numbers of seasonal variation,
and price differentials between various market
classes of chickens ...........................

Differentials between Chicago wholesale prices
of hens and prices of specified market
classes of young chickens, 1930-31 to 1940-41 .

Wholesale prices of live fowls and chickens
at Chicago, 1930-31 to 1940-41 ................

A moving seasonal adjustment for egg prices .....

Downward trend in costs of egg production .......

Estimated storage margin on shell eggs per
dozen, averages 1916-35 and 1925-34,
annual 1935-40 *eu.o..**ee.mue.eoe..e..o...m.ee

Eggs, per dozen: Estimated storage margin,
1916-37 ....... g......................

Geographic location of storage stocks
of eggs ooU........6..U.eOe...........e......

Geographic location of storage stocks
of poultry ......... ..................

Factors affecting the average price received
by farmers for turkeys in the United States ...

A comparison of four feed-egg ratios ............

Feed-egg ratio defined *.......... ...........


January 1942


9-10

4-6

page
It


December 1941

October 1941

no. October 1941

" September 1941


20 September 1941




16 August 1941


14-20


14

13

14


July 1941


June 1941

May 1941

March 1941


8 February 1911


9 February 1, 1938


6-8


December 1940


11 November 1940


13-16

10-13

10-11


October 1940

May 1, 1940

December 4,. 1930 |: