Poultry and egg situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
December 1941
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00067

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text



V.:J_ TH E-


TH"'SAESITUATION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-60 D DECEMBER 1941
,'1 *n-i. _. .-----------rv----_-----------


EGGS: PRICE AT- CHICAGO. PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS. AND FARM
PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. AVERAGE 1930-39. AND 1940-41
CENTS I I I I I I
PER
DOZEN PRICE OF FRESH FIRSTS. CHICAGO
"40 1- 1 1 1


0 1
CASES
I MILLIONS)I


A M S DATA


ALI 9PAITMENT OF AIEICULTUIIP


MIEG 90DI EUE*AiU OF AGIIICULTUIAL ECONOMFCS


EGG PRICES BEGAN TO DECLINE AT ABOUT THE USUAL TIME THIS FALL
(LATE NOVEMBER), THE DOWNTURN COINCIDING WITH THE SEASONAL UPTURN IN
MARKETING. BUT WITH THE SPREAD OF WAR IN EARLY DECEMBER WHOLESALE
EGG PRICES ADVANCED TEMPORARILY, AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH THEY
WERE ABOUT THE SAME AS IN MID-NOVEMBER. WITH FAVORABLE WEATHER, PRO-
SUCTION OF EGGS WILL INCREASE SEASONALLY UNTIL NEXT APRIL AND WILL BE
MATERIALLY LARGER THAN A YEAR EARLIER.







THE EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE


EGGS
I DOZENS I

8


7


6


5


4
CASES
I MILLIONS I

8


6


4


2


0
NUMBER



16



12



8



4


PERCENT

140




120




100




80
CASES
I MILLIONS I




4





2




0
NUMBER
I MILLIONS I

325


300


275


250


-I JULY OCT. 1
APi' JULY OCT.


225
JAN


A M S DATA EXCEPT NONAGRICULTL'PAL EMPLOYEES'COMPENSATION
* IST OF THE MONTH EXCLUDES U 5 D A HOLDINGS BEGINNING APRIL I 1940
t IST OF THE MONTH EXCLUDES U S D A HOLDINGS. BEGINNING JULY I 1941


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 39765 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


I I
NONAGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYEES'COMPENSATION-
INDEX NUMBERS
(1924 29-100)





1940
/. I






Average
1930-39






PEs-6o


THE POULTP.Y AND E3 G S I TUAT 0 IT


Summary

The seasonal low point in farm marketing of eggs has been parsed.

With favorable weather egg production will increase until next April and

will be much larger than a year earlier. On December 1, the average rate

of lay per hen in the United States was the highest or. record for that date,

10 percent higher than on the same date last year. The number of layers on

farms was 7 percent larger than on December 1, 19140, making the total egg

output of eggs on the first day of this month about 17 percent larger than

on December 1 last year. The number of layers on farms will increase further

relative to a year earlier because of the !9 perce-nt larger number of -ullfts

still available for addition to laying floiks. By January laying flccks will

average about 10 percent larger than r y.cv-.r earlier. In the flush seegon

of egg production next spring the increase in lay,.rs may exceed 10 percent,

since with the favorable egg pric,s in prospect the maximum number of

potential layers will be roetined for egg production.

Whole-olo egg prices began to decline ot about the usual timi this

fall, the downturn coirciding ,r.th tn-' s-asonal. unturn in marktigs., But

with the r fprcad cf war in cnarly fDecemer egg prices ndvrmncrd. In i'd-

Deucmbnr the price of fr.-sh firsts at Chic-ao was rbout the sme ..s in mid-

November, but about 10 cents approximatelyy 35 percent) higher then a y...nr

earlier. Egg prices declined agnin after the middle rf the month. Fed

prices have advanced a little in recent weeks but the feed-egg price r'tio is

about the same as a year ago, a little more favornbl" to producers than

average.


- 3 -






DECEMBER 1941 4 -

Storage stocks of shell eggs are declining seasonally and remain

somewhat smaller than a year earlier. The withdrawal of frozen eggs in

recent weeks has been the largest on record but total holdings continue

much larger than a year ago.

Current consumption of chicken meat appears to be the largest on

record. Average prices received by farmers for chickens, however, are con-

tinuing higher than a year ago; the mid-November price was 18 percent higher

than in November 1910O. Specialized broilEr and fryer production now is the

largest on record and probably will continue very large for the next several

months. The feed-chicken price ratio probably will improve in coming months

as prices of individual classes of chickens advance sr-sonally.

Wholesale prices for turkeys in mid-December wero a little lower

than in mid-November but were considerably nighor than a yenr earlier. The

average price received by farmers for turkoves in mid-lovemb-r (20.2 cents)

was 30 percent higher than in Noveaber 1940.

-- December 20, 1941

EGG SITUATION

REVIE'i OF RECEIlT, DEVLOPCINTS

Production Per Layer on Decerber 1 About
One-third L"rger Than Average

During November, the average number of lay-ers on fr.rms (313 million)
was about 5 percent larger than in Nlovembor 1940. The average rate of lay
per hen during the month also was bout 5 percent larger than a yerr earlier,
making the total egg output 11 percent in excess of the output in Uovomber
last yer-. The margin of egg output over a year earlier was even more marked
on December 1 than the average for I'ov-rbcfr. Output per lay'r on December 1
was 10 percent over that of a yerr earlier, and e third lr.rgcr than average.
The number of layers on that datr wns about 7 percent larger, making the
total output of eggs on December 1 about 17 percent Inrger than on December 1,
1940. Unusually mild weather and fr.vorable egg prices have been conducive to
heavy egg production.





PES-60 5 -

The average output per layer in the United States usually reaches the
low point for tihe year 6n about December 1. The total monthly egg output
usually is lowest in Nbovember. Farn marketings of eggs in the Iidwest this
fall reached.the low point in the third week of November, and with favorable
weather marketing will increase until next April. Receipts'at Midwest
markets in recent weeks have been between two and three times heavier than
a-year earlier. Receipts of eggs at Pacific Coast primary markets have been
increasing since late October and early November, and in recent weeks have
been running 13 to 18 percent heavier than in the corresponding period last
year. Receipts of eggs at the four principal markets during the week ended
December 13 ware heavier than a year earlier for "the first time in about 2
months. La.rgo Governmnnt purchases of eggs in the heavy-producing areas re-
sult in a heavy movement of eggs to breaking plants an8 to Army training
camps. Thic tends to reduce the flow of shell eggs thra-ugh Germinal markets
and in lnrge pert accounts for the fact that receipts at such markets have
been running smaller than a yeEr earlier despite much heavier production.
Also, imports of eggs at New York are not included in receipts data, In
some veeks those imports have accounted for a fairly sizable proportion of
receipts at that market.

Number of lnyers on farms, Urited States

Year Jan. Feb. : Mar.: Apr., May mJune :July Aug. :Sept.: Ocrt., Nov. Dec.
: Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. I.il. Mil, :Mil. Mil, Mil.
Average:
1930-39: 332 325 315 301 2s4 267 253 246 256 278 300 322

1938 307 301 292 278 262 24s 23 274 245 269 293 3l4
1939 : 322 316 306 292 27S 260 246 242 253 279 305 326
1940 : 332 327 318 304 289 270 252 247 257 279 303 320
191 : 324 318 30. 295 280 266 254 249 263 291 318



Average number of eggs produced per layer, United Stntes

Year Jan. Feb.: Mdrr,: Apr. May June 'July Aug. Sept, Oct., Nov. Dec,
:No. No. NIo. No. No. No. No. No. No;. No No. Io.
Average:
1930-39: 6.6 8.9 14.3 16.7 16.8 14.2 12.7 11.2 8.9 6.g 5.0 5.2

1938 : 7.9 9.9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14,9 13.6 ll.S 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 : 8.0 9.7 14.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9-3 7.4 6.0 6.g
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.g 13.4 11,8 9.7 7.9 6.2 6.g
1941 : 8.7 10.3 15.0 16.9 17.4 15.1 13.8 12..2 10.0 g.2 6.5




DECEMBER 1941 6 -

Total farm production of eggs, Upited States

M :J O : De.
Year *Jan. Feb.: Mar.. Apr.: May .June ;July .Aug. :Sept.: Octs. Nov.: Decf


: Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mili Mil. Mil.
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average: *
1930-39: 6.0 8.0 12.5 13.9 13.2 10.5 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.2 4.1 4.7


1938
1939
1940
1941


6.7
7.2
6.7
7.9


8.3
8.5
8.2
9.1


12.5
12.6
12.7
12.8


13.5
13.8
14.0
13.9


12.6
13.0
13.7
13.5


10.3
10.6
11.1
11.1


8.9
9.1
9.4
9.7


7.6
7.8
8.1
8.5


6.4
6.5
7.0
7.4


4.8
5.1
5.2
5.7


5.51
6.1
6.0


Agricultural Marketing Service data.


'Monthly Dried Egg Production now the
Largest on Record

Production of dried eggs by 14 firms in October of this year totaled
over 5 million pounds, more than 200 times the output in October 1940. In
addition, considerable quantities were produced by firms that are not in-
cluded in the 14 firms or that were not reporting their production to the
Department. Total production of dried eggs in 1941 will be something like
4 times the previous record output of 10 million pounds in 1939. During the
last few months considerable quantities of storage shell eggs have been used
for producing dried eggs. Relatively small quantities of frozen eggs have
been dried so far, however. Now that production of eggs is increasing season-
ally the quantity of storage eggs that are dried will decrease.


Purchases


of eggs by the Department of Agriculture in 1941


: Direct
-nurchases


Shell


Blue Stamp : Frozen
purchases


Month:
Jan.. ..........
Feb. ..........
Mar. ..........
Apr. ..........
May ...........
June .. ........
July ..........
Aug. ..........
Sept. .........
Oct. ..........
Nov. ..........
Week ended:
Dec. 6 ........
13 ........
20 ........
Total .........


: Cases

:4,003
173,003
72,191
: 386,925
: 398,711
38,401
316,535
96,736
88,150
* 92,395
: 15,700

: 11,124
4,148g
a 10,3492
: 1.708.371


Surplus Marketing Administration data,


Cases

120,000
133,000
157,000
173,oo000
170,000
184,000
161, 00ooo
200,000
.183,000
186,000


1.667.000


1,000 pounds





15,527
6,240
42,218
2,205


66.190


1,000 pounds





s4o
735
4,750
6,525
5,546
12,687
4,247

684
2,553
2.807


41.374


Date


: Dried


I


_






The Department of Agriculture this year up to December 20 had
purchased, the equivalent of a little over 7-3/4 million cases of shell eggs.
The quantities of the three forms, shell, dried, and frozen, are given in
the accompanying table. Up to November 1 the following quantities of egg
products had been delivered to representatives of the British Government:
Dried eggs, 10,410,573 pounds, frozen eggs,. 33,434,160 pounds, and shell eggs,
693,526 cases. These quantities are equivalent to approximately 2-3/4 million
cases. A part of the dried eggs purchased to date are for future delivery.

Storage Stocks Declining Seasonally

Partly because of the strong demand for fresh and storage eggs for
drying, the withdrawal of shell eggs from storage has been about as lnrge
in recent weeks as a year earlier despite continued heavy production. Hold-
ings of privately owned shell eggs on December 1 were 11 percent smaller than
a year-earlier. Stocks owned by the Department of Agriculture also were
smaller than on December 1, 1940, making total holdings of shell eggs about
16 percent smaller than on December 1 lrst year,

The net withdrawal of frozen eggs from storage in November wrs the
largest on record for the month, but total stocks on December 1 were 42 por-
cent larger than a year earlier and 7 percent larger thrn the previous record
high for that date in 1937, The net withdrawal of frozen eg-s in the first
half of December was much heavier than r. year earlier.

Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States a.nd Ftorage
movement at 26 markets


United State
Year stocks
: Nov. 1 : Dec
: 1,000 1,00
Shell : cnses case
Average


1930-39 ..:

1939 ......
1940 ......o1/
1941 ......:
Frozen
Average
1930-39 ..:


1939
1940
1941


.....o=
....... I
. .


4,592

3.,519
3,427
3,271


2,688

2,979
3,195
3,615


: Out-of-storago movement, week
ending as of 1941-42-_
SHeov. Dec. : Jen.
.1 29_ ? 6 :6 13 : 20 : 27 : 3
0 1,000 1,000 .1,000 1,000 1,000 1,00C
s cas,?s cases casess cses ca.se s crse"


303

224
348
320


274

178
222
267


246

162
240


217

167
191


1,580
1/1,1424
1/Z/1,265


303
417
441


2,345


2,509
2,608
2/1/2,963


69
102
163


69
s6
206


Agricultural Marketing Service data.
I/ Excludes U. S. Department of Agriculture holdings as follows Nov. 1,
1940, 717,000 cases; Dec. 1, 1940, 545,000 cases; Nov. 1, 1941, 586,000 cares:
Dec. 1, lCL1, 392,000 cases.
2/ Preliminary.
Excludes U. S. Department of Agriculture holdings as follows: Nov. 1,
1941, 781,000 cases; Dec. 1, 1941, 74g,000 cases,


2,40oo 315


PES-60"


- 7 -






DECEMBER 1941


Egg Prices Increased Temporarily with
the Further Spread of War

Wholesale egg prices began to decline at about the usual time this
year, the downturn coinciding with the upturn in volume of farm marketing.
With the recent war developments, however, the movement of prices was re-
versed despite continued increases in receipts, and prices increased 2 cents
or more over the low point of early December. In mid-December the price of
fresh firsts at Chicago at 36 cents per dozen was 1 cent lower than a month
earlier but about 10 cents (38 percent) higher than a year earlier. Moderate
price declines occurred after the middle of December. Increases in prices
in eastern egg markets, following the spread of war, were of about the same
proportion as the increases at Chicago, so that prices continued much.higher
than a year earlier. Prices of dried and frozen eggs declined somewhat dur-
ing October and November, but are considerably higher than a year ago.

The average price received by farmers for eggs in mid-November at 35.5
cents per dozen was 82 percent of parity. The index of prices paid by farmers
for commodities, including interest and taxes, which is used in computing
parity prices, has advanced materially in recent months. In mid-November this
index was 143 (August 1909-July 1914 100), compared with 141 in mid-October
and 127 in November 1940.

Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs, United States

Year Jan.: Feb,: Ma%.: Apr.: May :June :July : Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec,
: 15 : 15 : 15: 5 : 15 :15 :15 : 15 :15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1930-39: 22.8 18.8 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 17.0 18.7 21.9 24.7 28.2 26.3

1938 : 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.0 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
1939 : 18.8 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
1940 : 18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2 26.8
1941 : 19.7 16.8 16.4 19.7 20.1 23.2 25.6 26.8 30.3 31.8 35.5

Agricultural Marketing Service data.

Department i Giving Further Support
to Egg Prices

On December 18 the Department of Agriculture began making purchases
of fresh shell eggs on the Chicago and New York Mercantile Exchanges to give
further support to egg prices. These purchases are being made in keeping
with the Secretary's announcement in early September, that egg prices would
be supported at not less than 85 percent of parity through December 31, 1942.
Eggs purchased by this procedure will be used principally in school lunch
programs.

OUTLOOK EGGS

BACKGROUND.- Production per lnyer was larger than-a year earlier
in every month during 1941. And although the number of layers on
farms was smaller than a year earlier during the first 6 months


- 8 -





3 s-6o


- 9 -


of the year, total egg production in all months was larger than
in corresponding months'of 1940 except in April and May. The
aggregate of the first -of the month layings for 1941 is 5 per-
cent larger than the comparable figures for 1940 and about 13
percent larger than the 1930-39 average.

Egg Production Li:ely to Continue
Largest on Record

The number of layers in flocks of crop reporters on December 1 was 6.8
percent larger than on December 1, 19hO; and about 19 percent more pullets,
not of laying age, were on farms and available for adding to laying flocks
later. It appears, therefore, that the number of layers on farms by January
will be close to 10 percent larger than a year earlier. With the favorable
egg prices in prospect, only a minimum number of birds probably will be re-
moved from laying flocks during the first few months of 19U2. So by the flush
season of production next spring the increase in the number of layers on farms
may be more than 10 percent larger than in the spring of 1941. This increase
would be sufficient to reach the egg production goal for 1942 even if the
average rate of lay were no higher than this year's rate.

Egg prices probably will decline materially in the course of the next
few months as marketing increase, but prices received by farmers for nggs
will continue higher than a y2ar earlier at least well into 1942. Most
factors in the outlook for egg prices are favorable. Consumer incomes in
1942 are expected to average larger than in 1941 and purchases by the Depart-
ment of Agriculture under the Lend-Lease Act probably will be a little more
than twice as large as this yeir's purchases, and as proclaimed by the
Secretary of Agriculture in early September, egg prices will be supported at
not less than 85 percent of parity through the period ending Decemb.-r 31,
1942. Egg prices also will be influenced to some extent by any further in-
creases in the general price level.

Production Goals for 1942 to be Reviewed

The committees under the supervision of the agricultural defense boards
have about completed can-.-assing nll fP;amers to determine the probable output
of crops and livestock products for 1942. The findings of this survey will
be used in making any revisions that may have become necessary as a result of
the latest developments in the national and international situation.

Index Numbers of Seasonal Variation
in Egg Prices for 19W42

In the May issue of the Poultry and Egg Situation, a moving seasonal
adjustment for egg prices was presented. In that report index numbers of
seasonal variation were published for each year from 1910 through 1941.
Index numbers of seasonal variation in egg prices for 1942 follow:

January 95 May 82 September 114
February 88 June 79 October 127
March 82 July 90 November 111
April 82 August 97 December 123






DECEMBER 1941


- 10 -


The Department of Agriculture uses these index numbers of seasonal
variation in computing parity prices for eggs. Butterfat parity prices also
are adjusted for seasonal variation. In computing parity prices for eggs
prior to May 1941, the Department used an index of seEsonal variation based
on the period 1929-38.

Other commodities are not adjusted for seasonal variation in calculat-
ing parity prices. Variations in prices of most commodities other than eggs
and butterfat have not been sufficiently pronounced or uniform from year to
year to make it desirable to make adjustments for seasonal variation. Chicken
prices fall in this category. Prices of individual classes of chickens
(including fowl) have uniform and well defined patterns of seasonal variation.
But in computing the average price received by farmers for chickens (which is
pn average of many classes and grades), the mixed patterns are combined and
the resulting price series shows relatively little seasonal variation. In
many years changes in demand conditions offset the effects on the average
price received by farmers for chickens of the seasonal changes in supplies of
poultry meat. Hence the effect of seasonal factors on the average farm price
for chickens frequently is not readily apparent. Likewise, the effects on
the seasonal pattern of average farm chicken prices of the phenomenal increase
in specialized broiler and fryer production ore largely obscured.

THE POULTRY SITUATION

REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Seasonal Peak in Farm Marketings
of Chickens Has Been Passed

Marketing of young chickens in the Midwest usually reach a peak in
mid-November. In 1940 this peak wr.s a little later than usual, partly be-
cause of the late beginning of the hatching reason last year. This year re-
ceipts at Midwest primary markets reached the highest point for the year in
the latter part of September and continued heavy until mid-November. Al-
though these receipts are declining seasonally now, they are continuing much
larger than a year ago. Farm marketing of fowls also have passed the
seasonal peak, and are continuing smaller than at this time in 1940.

Two seasonal peaks usually occur in receipts of dressed poultry (fresh
and frozen) at the four principal markets. One peak comes just before
Thanksgiving and a second one just before Christmas (see chart in fig. 2).
Receipts at principal markets include turkeys and other classes of poultry as
well as chickens and fowls, thus making the peaks more pronounced than those
for primary markets. Receipts of dressed poultry at principal markets oarly
this fall wore considerably larger than a year earlier, but in recent weeks
they have been a little smaller th.n for corresponding weeks of last year.
Smaller receipts of turkeys this year than last probably are partly re-
sponsible for the smaller total receipts of dressed poultry at principal
markets. Another factor is that larger quantities of chicken meat are being
consumed in industrial cities other than those in which the four principal
poultry markets are located.








THE POULTRY SITUATION AT A GLANCE


POUNDS I
I MILLIONS I RECEII
40 AT F



30



20



10 1941-

L

CENTS PER
POUND




15


1941

13





11
CENTS PER
POUND FARM PF




18





15





12
JAN APR.
A M S DATA
U 5 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULfURE


JULY OCT.
, FIRST OF THE MONTH


I
PTS OF POULTRY
OUR MARKETS



1940.-..--


JAN APR. JULY OCT.
INCLUDES BROILERS FRYERS AND ROASTERS
NEG 39452 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FIGURE 2


POUNDS
I MILLIONS I
60




40




20




0
POUNDS
MILLIONS I
60




40




20




0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS I
60




DECMBER 1941 12 -

Receipts of dressed poultry at four markets

-_____ Yrr.-r, CY- icgo. Phoilu2'.nW_2 ., Boston)_
Selck esti..ri ~.-. ,,f -.c u1.l2__
Year : Oct. : ____v, : Dec. : Jan.
: 18 : 25 :15 '* ,2 29 ? : 1 : 20 : 27 : 3
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 :1,000 1,0o0 '3,:O 1,ri.0 1,000 1,000 1,000
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pouis pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average:
1939-40: 7,387 7,691 l8,931 25,187 13,766 9,846 16, 10 25,458 9,947 5,?14

1939 : 7,733 ,4L8 23,200 2.,999 12,471 9,"'51 20,274 32,330 9,187 5.973
1940 :10,3'7' 9.."'; 9,526 2-,-133 16,5,'-0 1!,56 21,802 36,909 10,766 5,538
1941 l10. 'E, A" 1 2>34 2 l.702 1 81 i2, 35 15, 2'39
Agricultura.i. -arke;ing Sarvice data.

Current Convum.nTion of ?ovrltry Meat
Largest ).i Record

Farm narketings of some clssTes of poultry, especially young chickens,
have been continued much larger than a year earlier. Although the not into-
storage movement of young chickens t.jis fall hrs hcen very heavy, it appears
that current coas',pticn is cxcccding previous records. The relatively high
prico level for other mrz.ats has boon an important fa-ctor in bringing about
this heavy cons iumpion. Price' of h'av,, your.n chic':ons in retail markets
have been abcou. at lact year's level despite a much larger supply.

Storage holdings of 21 poultry in the United Str.tcs on December 1 were
about 8 percent largCr than on December 1, 1940. Stocks of all classes ex-
cept turkeys wore lai-~r than a year ago, with roasters and fryers showing the
largest increases. Holdings of broilers were up 33 percent; fryers and roast-
ers were 39 percent larger than on Docember 1 last year. Holdings of fowls
were 11 percent larger than the previous record a year earlier, whereas hold-
ings of turkeys were 35 percent smaller. Stocks of roasters on Deccmb-r 1
were the largest on record for that date, oxceedi:ng hLb previous record high
of 29 million pounds ii 1926 by about 31 percent. Stocks of fryers and
broilers though much l1-.rger than usual were not nqual to previous records for
Dcccmber 1.

Poultry: Stor:'eg stocks in the United States and storage
r.ov-ment at 26 msrkets

: United States :Into-storage movement, week ending as of 1941-42
Year : stocks Nov. : Jec. : Jan..
:1Tov. 1 : -'cc. 1: 29 : 5 : 13 : 20 : 27 : 3
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000O 1,000 1,000
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Avernge:
1930-39: 70,412 105,076 10,062 9,085 4,511 3,066 2,971 2,931

1939 : 79,228 127,649 17,462 9,166 4,154 10,617 5,917 3,490
1940 :114,257 159,110 15,845 13,009 8,4so 4,760 8,955 5,229
1241 :127,9811/l,2436 12,735 10,032 8,483
Agricultural Marketing Service data.
I/ Preliminary.




PES-6o


- 13 -


Fowl and Chicken Prices Strengthened Following
Peak in Marketings

Wholesale prices of live fowls and young cnicKans at Chicago in general
advanced about 15 percent from mid-KTvember to rmid-Decen;.er, and continued
higher than a year earlier. Prices of similar live birds in some eastern mar-
kets, however, were about steady. wholesale prices of dressed stock vere
generally higher in mid-December than in mid-Nove.abcr. The average price re-
ceived by farmers for chickens declined from 16,0 cents in mid-.October to 15.5
cents in mid-November; the mid-ITovember price b ing 95 percent of the Tovomber
parity price.

Price per pound received by farmers for liv- c-licl:cns,
United States

Year : Jan.: Feb.: A r.: Apr.: May : Ju.o: July: A-g.: 2?-i..: Oct.: Nov-.: -rC.
15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 9 15 : 15 : I. : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cc.-its Coats Cents Cents Cents Co.its Cc.its ContE Cents C-nts
Average :
1930-39 : 14.0 14.2 14.4 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.1 14.0 14.3 13.7 13.3 12.9

1938 : 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14.3 1.14 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 32.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.8 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.6 1..4 13.7 13.3 13.1 13.0
1941 : 13.r 14.0 14.4 15.7 16o3 16.3 16.8 1-.3 15.3 16.0 15.5

Agricultural Ka:.cting Service data.

Poultry, live: Wholesale price, by classes, at Chicago,
average 1936-40 and selected dates 1940 and 1941

: Av. rqp: 1940 : 1 94
Class :1940: : : : Week ending
:____ ___O Dec. : Nov. Dec. : Jan. : Feb. :hov. :Dec. 6:Decn.
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Centc Cents Cents Cents


Hens:
Over 5 pounds .........: 16.6 14.9 15.5 16.9 16.7 19.0 18.8
5 pounds and under ....: 13.9 12.6 13.5 18.0 18.4 17.2 15.6
Leghorn ...............: 11.6 10.2 10.9 13.2 14.6 12.7 13.2
Spring chickens:
4 pounds and over .....
Colored ................ 16.0 14.g 16.5 18.1 19.5 15.2 16.7
White Rock ..........: 17.3 16.0 13.0 19.6 21.2 16.6 17.2
Barred Rock .........: 17.0 15.4 17.6 19.3 21.8 1S.2 16.9
Under 4 pounds
Colored .............. 16.1 14.3 16.1 17.6 iS.L! 16.2 16.9
White Rock ...........: 17.5 15.S 17.7 18.9 19.4 1.0 1Z.7
Barred Rock ..........: 17.5 16.1 17.6 19.5 20.1 19.8 20.3
Broilers:
2-1/2 pounds and under :
Colored ..............: 17.0 16.3 16.6 17.2 17.8 17.7 17.5
White Rock .......... 18.0 18.6 17.5 18.0 18.6 18.9 18.3
Barred Rock .........: 18.3 18.7 17.9 18.0 18.9 20.1 19.7
Turkeys:
Young hens ............. 20.1 17.5 13.2 18.6 19.0 22.5 21.8
Young toms ............ 16.9 1/14.7 1/15.4 1/15.5 16.o 1/18.9 1/17.4 i/
moted from quotations in, icago Pricc current. -
1. Computed from all quotations on young toms, including classes by weights.


19.O
16.8
14.0


17.0
18.5
17.2

17.1
17.4
19.8


16.6
16.6
18.5

21.7
17.6





DECEK!~R 1941 14 -

OUTLOOK CHICKENS

BACKGROIND. The feed-chicken price-ratio this year, based on
farm prices, was more favorable than a year earlier, and more
favorable than average, until September. Since September, feed
prices have increased and prices received by farmers for chickens
have declined some-.'hat, making the feed-chicken price-ratio less
favorable tha-n average and less favorable than a :,ear ago. As a
factor in determining the total annual chicken output in the
United States, ho--.ver, the feed-chicken ratio usually is less
important than the feed-egg ratio. The unusually favorable feed-
egg ratio during the first half of 194l was primarily responsible
for the largo increase in chickens raised on farms this year.
Changes in tic fced-chicten ratio usually are indicative of cha-nges
in commercial broiler and fryer production.

Demand for Broil-r Chicks Continuing Strong
Dcioito a Littlz Lss Favorable
Feed-Chicken R.tio

Production of baby chicks by commercial hatcheries in November this
year (21,929,000 caicir) was 66 pcrcact lar-gr tht-n the previous record
for Iovcmbcr in lr940. AlthouCgh the proportion of this output that was used.
for pullet production uas a little !arzer than in Noveroo-.'r 19140, the number
used for specialized broiler arnd fr;-or production w.as considerably larger
than in Novembcr last .'2ar. The November commercial h-'tchery production
brings the total output for the first 11 months of this year to 1,028 mil-
lion chicks. Specialized broiler and fryer production this year is expected
to be at least 150 million birds.

Chicken prices have advanced somewhat sinc the p-riod of heaviest
marketing, and the relationship of feed prices to chicken prices has become
a little more favorable to producers despite further advances in feed prices.
If prices of the various classes of chickens advance the full "seasonal amount
during the next few months the feed-chickeon price ratio probably will contin-
ue to improve. Specialized broiler and fryer production, therefore, may con-
tinue the largest o0: record at least well into next y-ar. On December 1,
advance orders for baby,' chicks wore 65 percent larger than on Decenber 1,1940.

The favorable cfg prices in prospect for the- spring of 1942 are ex-
pected to result in a dmanr.d for chicks even stronger than that which pre-
vailed in the spri-n of ll'. The nunbcr of cnickeon raised on farms in 1942
is expected to be a little larger than i.i 1941, rid tae total slaughter of
chickens in the U::ited States next year is expected to be even larger than
the record slaughter t.ids year. Prices recoiv.ed by farmers for chickens in
1942, however, are e erected to average higher th.- in 1941. Domestic supplies
of other meats are expected to be the largest in many years but the stronger
all-around demand is expected to result in higher prices-for farmers for iost
livestock and livestock: products. .......






PES-6o


- 15 -


Wholesale prices fnr livi turkeys at Chicago advanced somewhat from
the level around December 1, btt in mlnd.-Lecumber 'hey were still a little
lower than in mid-ilovmb'or, '-iolcsale p-iuc .-uE of drcsrod turkeys advanced
more than the pric- of live turk-Lys during tLe first part of Lccember, and
in the middle of the month werj a little higher than in mnid-Icvember. Prices
of both live and dressed turkeys are considerably higher than a year ago.

The fwvorabl! turkey prico situation this fa.11 is th: result of
slightly smaller marketing and a much stronger corsuncr demand, The net
into-storage novemont of turkeys during ITcvomber was the sxmallust for that
month since 1935, and stocks on Decomber 1 wer1 35 parc-nt sr-iller than the
record holdings for that dlata iii 1940 and wjro th:a smellest for Decomber 1
since 1938.

The ycar 1941 as a whole was very favorable for turkey raisers. Feeod
costs advanced fairly steadily during the turkey ~rowirn seasn.i but turkey
prices advanced also ani the feed-turkey price ratio av-.raged more favorable
than in 194C and considerably more frvorablo than average. More turkeys are
being saved for brooding purposes next year, and as a result turkey production
in 1942 is expected to roach a now hi,'h,

Price per nound rocoived by fa-rmors for live turkcys, United States

Year : Jan.: Tb.: lia:'.: .p, r.: : June: July: Lug.,:S..ot.: Ct.: ITov.: Dec.
: "_ i.__5._L_.1i..: I 2 15 : 15-i_ 15 la : 15 : 15-
:Ccntr. C,-nt s "unts C.it C ,rntz Conts Ccnt, C .-Lts C -at. C.:nts Cents Conts
Average:
1935-39: 17.2 16.s 16.5 16.2 15.5 14.7 14.6 14.4 15.3 16.1 17.2 17.5

193S : 17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.4 15.6 15.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 17.1 1S.4
1939 : 18.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6 14.7 14.4 14.3 15.4 15.3 16.0 15.6
1940 : 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.3 14.7 15.5 15.9
1941 : 15.5 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.4 19.h 15.8 16.1 17.5 13.8 20.2

Agricultural Marketing Service data,

FEvD SITUATION

This year's corn crop is of poorer quality than in any of the past
3 years, and prices of the higher grades are high relative to prices of
lower cradcs. Excessive rains earlier in the fall delayed harvesting in
a large part of the Midwest but in recent weeks the weather in that area
has been more favorable,

Prices of corn and oats and byroduct feeds advanced slightly in early
December following the spread of war. Following the entry of the United States
into the first World War, prices of feed grains advanced sharply. Supplies of
feed per animal unit are much larger now than during the previous war, however,
Much smaller advances in feed prices may occur during 1941-42 than occurred
in 1917. During the next few weeks corn prices may be supported somewhat





lECEIMER 1941


by the higher loan rate on 1941 corn. The loan rnte on 1911 corn in the
central comm-rcial arca will average 74,8 ca-uts a:i& will. vary from 69 to 79
cents compared with a flat loan rate of 61 cents por bushol nn 1940 corn,.

The cost of po'iltry ration, based on vholes.lc prices at Chicago,
advanced during the firzt half of Dectn-ber, but was more than offset by
an increase in rg prices and the fc rl-agg rc.tio continued favorable for
producers. The nu.t""er of eggs rmq'ir'd to buy 100 pounds of feed probably
will increase seasonally during the next se;-eral months but the ratio is
expected to continue favorable for eg production.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)

________ __Week e:.ing as of lq9'l-'2_
Year : Feb.: June:ESpt.: Oct.: Iove.er : december *: Jan,
22:_ : ?S : 27 25. : 15 : 22 : _9_ 6 13 : 20 : 2 31
: Doz..a Pr. Kr. o f .D P oz. Doz. oz Tz.
Ave rage:
1930-39: 6.o6 6.s6 5.65 4.73 4.03 4.09 4.23 4.5o 4.75 4.93 4.83 5.89

1939 : 6.21 6.71 6.39 5.13 4.62 h 73 5.6s 6.23 6.63 6.62 6.62 5.56
1940 : 6.23 7.57 6.o02 5.95 5.76 5,-4 4o53 .3o0 4,75 4.75 5.53 7.13
1941 : 7.4S 5.19 5.22 4,61 4.i4 4.C2 3,99 4.47 4.59

Agricultural kariketing Service lat'..

20KEST IC DENIA2D

The money income of consumers is expected to continue to increase,
food-for-defense buyin, will be expanded, and speculative and storage demand
for farm products unaffected. by price ceilings may be stimulated by the
spread of hostilities. The expected increase in the money income of con-
sumors is based on the outlook for further gains in industrial activity,
employment, wages, and prices. Curtailment of production of some civilian
goois such as automobiles, household equipment, and residences, will tend
to increase the proportion of funds available for other types of consumerst
good 'rad service, including food, clothing, and amusements. The higher
taxes to be paid noxt ycar may result in lowering net money incomes after
taxes for some of the higher income rrnup. of consumers. The lower income
groups, however, will bU, little affected by the tax increases which have
been made to date, and it is this group which spends a relatively large
proportion ef its income for food,


- 16 -






FES-GO 17 -

Total nor.agricultural employees' compensation,
United States

(Index numbers 1924-2E = 10C)
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. My June Juhly Aug.'Set. Oct. o-.. Dec.
Average
1930-39 83.2 83.2 64.1 84.0 84.6 4 .6 61.0 31.6 84.0 66.1 F4.C 85.7

1939 :94.4 94.6 96.6 95.5 96.9 90.9 94.7 96,6 100.1 104.6 104.7 106.5
1940 : 101.4 101.1 102.6 102.8 104.7 105.3 102.4 104.7 109.0 113.3 113.2 117.3
1941 : 115.2 117.5 119., 121.9 126.7 130.6 12[i.1 130.5 134.9 1/133.2.


Adusted for seasonal variation
Average :
1930-39 : 84.3 V4.2 84.0 83.6 '3.8 84.0 93.7 94.0 83.7 C3.F. r3.C 64.0

1939 : 95.4 6.0 96.7 95.4 96.6 98.9 98.3 99.6 99.6 101.5 1C2,G 1C 3.5
1940 : 102.6 102.5 102.7 102.7 104.3 105.1 106.4 108.0 108.6 109 110.7 114.1
1941 : 117.4 120.3 121.3 122.3 126.4 129.8 130.9 132.4 132.9 1/124.6


Based on data iroj.i tLe Department of Cormmerce and the nationall Pu'ea. of Economic
Research.

I/ Preliminary.




DECEMBER 1941


- 1 -


IJEX OF SPECIAL SUBJECTS DISCUSSED IN THE
POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION
- -- - -


Index numbers of seasonal variation in
egg prices for 1942 ......................

Poultry producers and the 1942 farm program ,

Outlook for turkeys, 1941-42 .................

Outlook for chickens and eggs in 1942 .......

Nonagricultural employees compensation, a
new measure of consumer demand ...........*

Wholesale prices of live fowls and chickens
at Chicago: Index numbers of seasonal
variation, and price differentials between
various market classes of chickens ........

Differentials between Chicago wholesale
prices of hons ..ad prices of specified
market classes of young chickens,
1930-31 to 1940-41 .........................

Wholesale prices of live fowls and chickens
at Chicago, 1930-31 to 1940-41 ............

A moving seasonal adjustment for egg prices .

Downward trend in costs of egg production ...

Estimated storage margin on shell eggs per
dozen, averages 1916-35 end 1925-34,
annual 1935-40 ....................... .....

Eggs, per dozen: Estimated storage margin,
1916-37 ................ ............... ...

Geographic location of storage stocks of
eggs .... o .,,, o...... .....6.............

Geogracrhic location of storage stocks of
poultry ...... .......... ................

Factors affecting the average price received
by farmers for turkeys in the United States

A comparison of four feed-egg ratios ........

Feed-egg ratio defined ..o.....,,.,......


9-10

4-6

page

n


20




16




14-20


14

13

14



S


9


6-s


11


13-16

10-13

10-11


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
HI IIlIIIIHIIllHMIIII
3 1262 08904 0603
I.



Issue


December 1941:. ':j.

October 1941

October 1941

September 1941 '


September 1941 .......




August 1941




July 1941


June 1941

May 1941

March 1941



February 19411


February 1, 193S '


December 1940 Y


November 1940


October 19 ;4

May 1, 1940 :

December 4, 153