Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
November 1941
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00066

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text






THE


SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-59 A* NOVEMBER 1941



WHOLESALE PRICES OF LIVE POULTRY. SELECTED CLASSES.
CHICAGO. AVERAGE 1936-40. AND 1940-41
CENTS
PERO Average HENS. MEDIUM HEAVY.
1936-40 19 5 POUNDS AND UNDER


20 ----



1940


30
ROASTERS. BARRED PLYMOUTH ROCK
H HEAVY 4 POUNDS AND OVER
25 1941 ---


20 -
1940
15
-5 i 1 L I 1 1 I I L
.LJJ.,- -LL.L___U-J_._LL_ Lj -L._ 1 1
TURKEYS I
YOUNGTOMS OLDTOMS YOUNGTOMS
t0 luder lI poud-s
19 141 I

15 r i8apunda and over.

Uider IS pound. --. \ Under 6 peas ..
0 S pounds and aver i 6 pons and over


*WEEKS ENDED DEC. 20 AND II. UNDER 18 POUNDS AND i POUNDS AND OVER


U.3 EPARTUlEIT or AdeICULruRE


NEL I70B BURtAU OF 46UICULTUUL ECONOMICS


THE INCREASE IN SUPPLIES OF CHICKEN MEAT HAS OFFSET A LARGE PART OF THE EFFECTS
ON PRICES OF THE LARGER CONSUMER INCOMES THIS FALL THAN LAST. PRICES OF CHICKENS AND
FOWL IN EARLY NOVEMBER AVERAGED ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A YEAR EARLIER, WHILE IN THE
SUMMER MONTHS THEY WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN IN THE CORRESPONDING TIME LAST YEAR.
SUPPLIES OF TURKEYS THIS FALL ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE RECORD SUPPLIES iN 1940 BUT
BECAUSE OF THE MUCH STRONGER CONSUMER DEMAND TURKEY PRICES ARE AVERAGING CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO.









THE EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE


PERCENT I I I-
NONAGRICULTURAL
140 EMPLOYEES'COMPENSATION
INDEX NUMBERS
1924-29I100)


120 941-----


EGGS
(DOZENS)

8


7


6


5


4
CASES
I MILLIONS I

8


6



4


2


0
CENTS PER
DOZEN
30



25



20



15


OCT.


JAN APR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY
A. M. S. DATA. EXCEPT ONA"RIr ULTVFlAL EMPLOYEES'COMPENSA TION
r Is. OF THE MONTH. EXCLUDES U. S. D. A. HODfFNOS. BEGINNING APRIL T. 1940
+IST UF THE MONTH EXCLUDES U 5 D A. HOLDINGS BEGOIIIiJIG JULY I 1941


U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEf 39713 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


80
CASES
I MILLIONS I




4





2





0
CASES
* MILLIONS I


12


9



6


3






PES-59 3 -

-------I-----------------.----------------
THE POUL TRY AT E GG S I TUATI ON


Summary

Although supplies of turkeys for consumption this fall arc almost as

large as the record supplies of 1940, wholesale prices of turkeys are averqg-

ing about one fourth higher than a year ago. Supplies of chickens are con-

siderably larger this fall than last but prices have been averaging slightly

higher. Marlketings of chickens in recent weeks have been about the largest

on record and although current consumption is at a very high rate, storage

stocks are accumulating more rapidly than usual. Total stocks of poultry on

November 1 were 12 percent over the previous record for that date in 1940.

The seasonal peak in holdings will be reached early in Januar--.

Marketings of chickens will continue heavier than a year earlier

into 1942 because of the large late hatch this year. Commercial broiler

output apparently is continuing even larger thpn the previous record output

last fall. Chicken prices are expected to resume an upward trend after the

heavy fall marketing and for 1942, an a whole, r-'ces received by farmers

for chickens probably will average higher than in 1941.

Egg production is continuing even lrgser than the record outout a

year ago. On November 1 total egg production wFs about 9 percent larger

than a year earlier. Receipts of eges at midwest primary markets in recent

weeks have been about twice as large as a year earlier. But because of the

heavy egg-breaking operations in that area, receipts at terminil1 markets are

continuing a little smaller than a year aro. Stores.3 withdrawals of eggs

had been running considerably below normal but in recent weeks increased con-

siderably and are now about as laree as those of a year ago. Stocks of

-privately owrTned frozen eggs on November 1 were about 13 percent larger than





NOVEMBER 1941


on November 1, 1940, but stocks of shell oggs in private hands were 5 percent

smaller than a year earlier.

Egz prices advanced further during the past month; wholesale prices

of fresh firsts at Chicago in mid-November were 37 cents per dozen, about

60 percent higher than t. that time last year. Feed prices advanced in recent

weeks but the feed-egg ratio, based on Chicago prices in mid-November, was

about average and was much more favorable than a year earlier. Because of

the stronger demand and increased purchases for lend-lease requirements,

egg prices are expected to continue considerably higher than a year earlier

well into 1942. Direct purchases by the Department to date this year are

equivalent to approximately 6,924,290 cases of shell eggs.

-- November 19, 1941

EGG SITUATION

REVIEW OF RECENT DE'ELOP'MTTS

Average Rate of Lay Continuing at
a Record Level

The average number of eggs laid Ter hen in sample farm flocks on
November 1 was about 2 percent larger than the previous record for that date
in lq40, and w.as 28 percent larger than the 1930-39 average. With about 7
percent more layers on farms on November 1 than a year earlier, total egg
output on that date was about 9 percent larger than on november 1 last year.

For the month of October, the average number of layers on farms, 291
million, was about 4 percent larger than in October 1940. The rate of lay
was 2 percent higher this October than last, making the total egg output for
the month about 3 percent larger than in October 1940.

Receipts of eggs at primary markets indicate that erg production
since November 1 has continued larger than a year earlier. In the Midwest,
receipts at primary markets during early Noverber were running about twice
as large as in early November last year. Receipts at Pacific Coast markets
are continuing to increpae relative to a year earlier. Terminal merkot
receipts, however, have been running smaller this fall than last. The dif-
.. ference in trends between these two types of markets is due to the heavy
purrhases by the CGovermuent in producing areas. Such purchases result in
a heavy moveienit. of eggs directly from country plants or assembling points
to br akers.


- 4 -






- 5 -


Number of layers on farms-, United States

Year Jan. Feb." Mar.: A-r.: May June" July' Aug.:Sept.' Oct.: Nov. Dec.
Mil. il. Mi. Mi. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
Average:
1930-39: 332 325 315 301 28g 267 253 246 256 278 300 322

1938 307 301 292 278 262 248 236 234 245 269 293 314
1939 .: 322 316 306 292 276 260 246 242 253 279 305 326
l19o : 332 327 318 304 299 270 252 247 257 279 303 320
1941 324 318 308 295 280 266 254 240 263 2ql


Average number of eggs produced ncr layer, United.States

Year Jan." Feb." Mar.' Anr.' May June" July' Aug.'Sept.' Oct.' INov. Dec.
: : : : *
Uo. No. No. No. No. No. bo. No. No. No. No. No.
Average:
1930-39: 6.6 8.9 14.3 16.7 16.s 14.2 12.7 11.2 s.9 6.8 5.0 5.2

1938 7.9 9.9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.O 13.6 il.g 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 8.0 9.7 14.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.4 6.0 6.s
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.8 13.4 11.8 9.7 7.9 6.2 6.8
1941 : 8.7 10.3 15.0 16.9 17.4 15.1 13.8 12.2- 10.0 S.2


Total farm -roduction of eaps, United Stptes

Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Aor. M.Ay June: July: Auo..Sept.c Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
: Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Nil. 1il. Mil. Mil.
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cpses cases cases cases c'ses cases
Average 1
1930-39: 6.0 8.0 12.5 13.9 13.2 1.0.5 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.2 4.1 4.7

1938 6.7 8.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5.5
1939 7.2 8.5 12.6 13.8 13.0 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 8.2 12.7 14.0 13.7 11.1 9.4 8.1 7.0 6.1 5.2 6.0
1941 : 7.9 9.1 12.8 13.9 13.5 11.1 9.7 8.5 7.4 6.6

Agricultural Mprketing Service data.

Direct Purchases of Eggs by the Denartment
.This Year New Nearly 7 Million Cases

The Demprtment hPs continued to purchase shell eggs as well as dried
eggs; purchases of frozen eggs have been discontinued until further notice.
Dried epgs make up the largest -ronortion of present Durchases, though nart
of such purchases are made for delivery early in 1942. Monthly production
of drrled ege pr-uoin'.ts now is over 3 million pounds compared to 100,000 pounds,


PES-59






NOVEMBER 191


or less, per month in the late fall of 1940. The approximate shell-egg
equivalent of all eggs and egg products purchased directly by the Department
to the middle of November was 6,924,290 cAseq. The following table shows
direct purchases by the Department and quantities purchased indirectly by
redeeming blue stamps.

Purchases of eggs by the Department of Agriculture in lq41

~: Shell : :
Date : Direct : Blue Stamp : Frozen : Dried
__ purchases : purchases : _
: Cases Cases 1,000 ucunds 1,000 pounds
Month -
Jan. ........ : 4,003 120,067
Feb. ........: 173,003 132,933
Mar. ........ 72,191 157,000 ---
Apr. ....... 386,925 173,000
May ........: 39.,711 169,700 15,527 N840
June ....... 3j,401 184,100 6,240 735
July .......: 316,535 160,900 42,218 4,750
Aug. ........: 96,736 .199,633 2,205 6,525
Sept. .......: S8,150 182,967 --- 5.546
Oct. ........: 92,3q5 --- 12,687

Week ended :
Nov. 8 ....: 7,700 --- 999
15 ....: 1,600 --- 826
Total .......... 1,676,350 1,4so,300 66,190 32,897


Withdrawal of Storage Stocks Increased
in Recent Weeks

Up until about mid-October the net out-of-storage movement of shell
eg-s was running much smaller than a year earlier, and in some weeks the net
withdrawals were the smallest in more than 20 years. Beginning in the latter
part of October the out-movement increased considerably and now is running
about average. Storage stocks of privately owned shell eggs on November 1
were only 5 percent smaller than a year ago compared with as much as 15 per-
cent in earlier months. Holdings by the Depsrtment of Agriculture on
November 1 were 18 percent smaller than a ye-r earlier, making total hold-
ings of shell eggs about 7 percent smaller than on November 1, 1940.

Although the out-of-storsge movement of frozen eagc has been running
about average, privately owned stocks on November 1 were about 12 percent
larger-than on November 1, 1lQ40. The Department owned the equivalent of
3,608,000 ceses on November 1 this year whereas on November 1 last year no
frozen eges were held by the Department.


- 6 -








Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States and storage movement
at 26 ma.rkcts

: United. States: Out-of-storuge movement, wcek ending as of 194l
Year : stocks : Oct. : Novembcr : Jec.
: Oct. 1: Nov. 1: 25 : 1 : S : 15 : 22 : 29 : 6
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,0no 1,000 1,000 1,000
cases cases cases cases cases cases C.SOS c cases cases
Shell :
Average :
1930-39 : 6,572 4,592 321 354 354 367 334 315 303

1939 : 5,430 3,519 296 359 361 304 3 30 03 224
1940 :1/5,139 1I3,"27 307 332 315 373 331 417 348
1941 :/4,8146j73 _1 271 386 306 358

Frozen :
Average
1930-39 : 3,036 2,6SS --- --- --- ---

1939 : 3,471 2,979 82 72 57 C7 6g 69 51
1940 : 3,737 3,195 78 81 81 101 .5 102 74
1941 :%/4,261 2/3,08 198 s4 96 77


Agricultural Marketing Service data.
I/ Excludes United States Department of Agricu-ture holdings as follows:
October 1, 1940, 901,000 cases; rovembcr 1, 1940, 717,000 cases; Octobeor 1, 1941,
595,000 cases; November 1, 1941, 5s6,000 cases.
2/ Preliminary.
rj Excludes United States Departmrnt of Agriculture holdings as follows:
October 1, 1941, 837,000 cases; Novcmb.r 1, 1941, ?7-1,JOO cases.

Egg Prices Advancad Further During
the Past Month

Wholesale eg prices advanced further duri:-ing the last half of
October and first part of November as receipts declined seasonally and
purchases by the Department of A&-riculture continued li-re. Fresh firsts
at Chicago increased about 5 cents p-r dozen from rid-Octobor to mid-November
and arc now about 14 cents (60 percent) hijner than a :rtinr ago. Price ad-
vances at other n-.rk.-ts were about proportional to the average ad-vance at
Chicago.

The aver--e price received by farmers in i-id-October (31.8 ccnts)
was about 8 cents hi-hcr than a year earlier andc wns L4 percent of the Octo-
ber parity price.


PES-59


- 7 -





NOVEMmlR 1941


Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs, United States

Year :Jan. :.eb. :Mar. :Apr. : May :June :July :Aug. :Sept. iOct. :Nov :Dec.
:1ear 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 1i15 l 15 _j 15 :15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cent s Conts Cents Canta Cents
Average :
1930-39 : 22.8 18.8 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 17.0 18.7 21.9 2h.7 28.2 26.3

1938 : 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.0 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 2.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
1939 : 18.8 13.7 15.0 15.5 15.2 l4.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.3 25.8 20.5
1940 : 18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2 26.8
191 : 19.7 lo6. 1.h4 19.7 20.1 23.2 25.6 26.8 3C.3 31.8

Afric'ltural Marketing Scrvncc data.

Imports of Eggs from Argentina

The rclaLi-vly high egg prices in this ccuntr'- during the past few
months have resulted ir. imports of eggs from Arrentina. Erg prices in
the United States have been running considerably !-hiher than a y-ar earlier
since last April and recently have been at the seasonal high level. Prices
of eggs in argontina and adjoining South American countries, on the other
hand, are at tnu seasonal low level. The seasonal variation in egg prices
in Argentina is about as pronounced as in this country but the pattern of
variation i reversed& because th3 seasons are opposite. In the next few
months egg prices in tho United States probably will decline somewhat from
the present level Ds production increases scasonnlly, whereas prices in
Argentina will rise as production drops off with the coming of summer and
early fall in that c .ntry. Urndr these conditions imports of eggs into
the United States frou Argentina mip- ceace.

Tariff rates on poultry products and ergs .ero not changed by the
Argentine Trade Agn-ement which w'3nt into cifact on Novezubor 15.

Q,'antitics of cg7-s imported it. some mouths have been large relative
to receipts of donrrstic egLs at specific markets. Such. imports, however,
probr.'uly ha-e had reiati-'ely little effect on &orncstic egg prices since it
is unlikely that total imports exceeded 1 percont of the montL-ly domestic
supply of eags. Department of Co:.nmerce data on total current imports of
eggs will not be avaletle -'or several weeks, but the A-rici.ltural Market-
ing Service reports that about 84,000 cases of c~;.s were received at
New: iork from South American countries during October. For tiis year up
to November 5 about 21h.O,000 cases of eggs wvcr received at New York from
South America. These receipts ar' not included i;. th.- data on receipt of
eggs at New York City.

O-UTLOOZ

BI CKGr.OL',D.- Per capital consumption of ,-~7s i:, the United
States ir- 1940 was the largest in n-arly a decade. E,-g
prices i- T-hat year averaged only sliZhtl-' hi.!:..r than in
1939 despite the larger consumer incomes. Prices received
by farmers for cgrs continued at a relatively low- level
during th3 first quarter of 191l. But since last A-ril egg

*1


- 9 -







PES-59 9 -

prices have been advancing steadily. The food-for-defense
program was announced in early April and large Government
purchases have been made under the Lend-Lease Act. To
assure a large production of eggs in 19l2 the De-.rtment has
announced that prices received by farmer for eggs will be
supported at not less than 85 percent of parity through
December 31, 19h2.

The outlook for eggs during the remaind:r of this year and in 1942
was discussed i-i detail in the September issue of The Poultry and E,g
Situation. Since there has been little change in the general. situation dur-
ing the past several weeks, the principal points concerning the outloc': are
outlined below.

(1) With favorable weather, egg production this fall and vint-r vill
continue even 1-rgrr than the record output of a year earlier.

(2) The number of layers on farms i.s b-:.n increasing for sev-ral
months relative to a ;-car earlier and by January clocc to 10 pe:-rc.nt more
layers will be on arms than in January 1941. I.- addition, b-cause of the
large late hatch this year, a larger number of p-lcl;rs will be available
for addition to la.-ing flocks after the first of th- year. The prospective
increase in layers is largely the basis for e3rpcc-,ing an increase of 10 per-
cent in total egg output in 192. With such an iL:.crrase the production
goal of about 4 billion 6ozen aggs i;: 19L2 would be reached.

(3) Purchases b"r the Dcpartm.'nt of AJric-lture for lrnd-lease prr-
poses in 19h2 ar cxpectcd to total about a half Lillion dozen eggs, or
about 16-3/4 million cases (approhximr.te shell-cgg equivr.lent). Supplies
of eggs for domestic consumption in 1942, however, are -xpoected to be as
large as average for recent years, or pnrhaips a little larger.

(4) Prices received by farmers for eggs next y-ar are expected to
average somewhat h'ghcr tham. in 19L1. The prospective stronger average
consumer demand ini 1942 will be surplmcr.tedc by the announced purchase pro-
gram. Egg prices will be influenced to sonic extent also by movements in
the general price level.

(5) The feed-exg ratio is exz.ected to continue favorable for c7gg
production. Some costs will be hi -her in 1942 thinn th:y.- have b3fln this
year, but .all thi:ins cc:-sidered it should be more profitable than a-.-crage
to produce Cerrs n:-xt year. Cash farn income front o.:ts in 1942 will be
materially largecr than. in 1941.












POUNDS
I MILLIONS 1
40



30



20



10



0
CENTS PER
POUND




15





13





11
CENTS PER
POUND




18





15





12


THE POULTRY SITUATION
I' I POUNDS
RECEIPTS OF POULTRY I MILLIONS I
- AT FOUR MARKETS 60



1940 ^-


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A M S DATA A FIRST OF THE MONTH
U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


0
POUNDS
MILLIONS I
60




40




20




0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS 1
60




40




20


AT A GLANCE


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
INCLUDES BROILERS. FRYERS AND ROASTERS
NEG. 39452 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FIGURE 2





PES-59


- 11 -


POULTRY SITUATION

REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Hatchery Output Oontinuing Large

The demand for chicks for specialized broiler and fryer production
is continuing unusually strong and the hatchery output of "baby chicks is
being maintained at a high level. About 60 percent more chicks were produced
by commercial hatcheries in October this year than in that month in 1940.
The output in October exceeded the previous record. for that month by
15 percent. During the first 10 months of 1941 about 1,009 million chicks
were produced by commercial hatcheries, 27 percent more than a year earlier
and 16 percent more than the previous record for that period established in
1939.

Farm Marketings and Terminal Market Receipts
of Poultry Much Larger than a Year Ago

Receipts of live young chickens at midwest primary markets in recent
weeks have been about 50 percent larger than receipts a year earlier. This
probably reflects an increase in the average weight of birds sold as well as
an increase in numbers, since conditions this year have favored feeding to
heavier weights.

Receipts of fowls also have increased in recent weeks and now are a
little larger than those of a year ago. The increase in fowl marketing is
due in large part to the fact that fowls were retained on farms during the
past summer and early fall to increase egg production.

Receipts of dressed poultry (fresh and frozen) at the four principal
markets during the first 10 months of 1941 were about as large as in the same
months a year earlier. But in recent weeks receipts at these markets have
been as much as one fourth larger than in corresponding weeks of 1940 and the
largest on record for those weeks. These data, of course, include receipts
of turkeys and other classes of poultry as well as chickens ard fowls. The
movement of turkeys may have started a little earlier this year than last.

Receipts of dressed poultry at four markets

(New York, Chicaro, Philadolohia. Boston)
S_ Wool: ending as of 1941
Year : Sept. : Oct : Nov. : Doc.___
: 20 : 27 : 11 : 18 : 25 : 1 : s : 15 : 22: 29 : 6
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000CO 1,000
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
average:
930-39: 6,238 6,627 7,238 7,387 7,641 7,788 9,101 18,931 25,187 13,766 9,846

1939 : 7,371 7,530 8,526 7,733 s,438 9,470 11,741 28,200 23,999 12,471 9,451
194+ : s,47 8,40o3 9,548 10,327 9,796 9,350 12,256 29,526 25,818 16,500 13,656
941 : 8,082 8,354 10,150 10,865 10,951 11,756 13,405 23,634

agriculturall Marketing Service data.




NOVEMBER 1941


- 12 -


Storage HEcdings Even Lgarger than the
Record Koldings of Last Year

The not into-storage movement of all poultry in October was about
one third larger than the previous record in October 1940, and data for the
26 markets indicate that this margin has been at least maintained during early
November, On November 1 holdings of broilers end fryers were 36 percent
larger than a year earlier while stocks of roasters were up 46 percent from
ITovembor 1, 1940. Stocks of fowls wore 3 percent larger than on November 1,
1940, but holdings of turkeys (at the seasonal low point) were 32 percent
smaller than on November 1 last year.

Poultry: Storage stocks in the United States and
storage movement at 26 markets

: United States : Into-storago movement, week ending as of 194
Year : stocks : Oct, ___ov. : Dec.
: Oct, 1 : Nov. 1 : 25 : 1 : 1 : 15 : 22 : 29 : 6
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average:
1930-39: 55,192 70,412 3,117 3,487 3,s64 4,398 7,os6 10,062 9,085

1939 : 63,164 79,228 3,03s 4,740 6,629 5,392. 9,456 17,462 9,166
1940 : 90,842 114,257 3,681 4,541 4,596 5,o81 6,887 15.845 13,009
1941 : 96,701 1/128,071 6,169 7,255 8,096 5,477

Agricultural Marketing Service data.
I/ Preliminary.

Fowl and Chicken Prices Lower in
November than in October

Wholesale prices of live young chickens, of heavier weights, declined a
little further in the last half of October and in the first part of November,
In mid-November the price of heavy colored roasters at Chicago was the same
as a year earlier and about a half cent lower than in mid-October. Prices of
medium weight spring chickens also declined a little during the past month
but in mid-November were somewhat higher than a year earlier. Prices of live
fowls declined from 1 to 2 cents during the month ended in mid-November, but
they are still 2 to 3 cents higher than in NTovcmbcr 1940. The average price
received by farmers for chickens in mid-October was 16.0 cents per pound,
20 percent higher than a year earlier, and 2 percent above parity.

Price per pound received by farmers for live chickens,
United States

Tear : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May : Juno: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
S15: 15 : 1: 1 : 1 : 19 : 15 : 15 : 15 : _1 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents' Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cnr.ts Cents Cents Cents
Average :
1930-39 : 14.0 14.2 14.4 15.0 14.7 14.4 14,1 14.o 14.3 13.7 13.3 12.9

-1938 : 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.o 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.8 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.7 13.3 13.1 13.0
_194_ A-. 7 l4.o 14.4 15.7 _16.3 l6.3 16.8 16.3 16.3 16.0
Agricultural Marketing Service data,






PES-59


Poultry, live: Wholesale price, by classes, at Chicago, average
1936-40 and selected dates 1940 and 1941

:Averago i 1940 : 19q4
Class :1936-_0J: I : : : Week ending
90Nv_ Oct. Nov, Doc. Jan. Oct.
___~~___________ ov.;Oct Nov:* : D : :Nov.1:Nov.S:Noj5.
: Conts Cents Conta Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Hens:
Over 5 pounds ........: 16.6 15.1 14.9 15.5 16.9 19.0 18.1 18.2 1S.O
5 pounds and under ...z 13.3 13.1 12.6 13.5 18.0 17.2 15.9 15.2 14.2
Leghorn ..............: 11.6 10.8 10.2 10.9 13.2 14.7 14.2 13.2 12.6
Spring chickens:
4 pounds and over
Colored ...........: 15.0 14.2 14,. 16.5 18.1 15.7 15.2 15.0 14.,
White Rock .........: 16.3 15.7 16.o 18.0 19.6 17.0 16.2 16.2 16.5
Barred Rock ........: 15.9 15.4 15.4 17.6 19.8 16.9 16.7 16.0 15.5
Under 4 pounds
Colored ............: 14.9 13.9 14.3 16.1 17.6 17.0 17.1 17.0 16.2
White Rock .........: 16.7 15.8 15.8 17.7 18.9 18.5 19.2 19.0 17.3
Barred Rock .,.....: 16.6 15.8 16.1 17.6 19.5 19.1 20.5 20.7 19.5
Broilers:
2-1/2 pounds and under:
Colored ............ 17.8 16.2 16.3 16.6 17.2 18.9 19.0 19.0 17.6
White Rock .........: 19.5 18.1 18.6 17.5 18.0 20.1 20.5 20.5 18.3
Barred Rock ........: 19.2 18.0 18.7 17.9 18.0 21.2 21.5 21.2 19.7
jurkoys:
Young hons ........,6.: 19.3 18.5 17.5 18.2 18.6 22.4 21.0 21.0 23.2
Young toms ...........: 16.9 15.4 1/14.7 !/15.4 1/15.5 20.7 19.5 18.5 1/20.4

Computed from quotations in Chicago Price Current.
I/ Computed from all quotations on-young toms, including classes by weights,

Chicken Prices ERvon st Incrcased as Much
as Price of Soreo Othcr Luvcstrck Products

The natorial improvement in demand during the past year has resulted
r in mixed trends in prices received by farmers for various livestock products,.
On the basis of a comparison of October prices this year with those of 1940,
prices received for beef cattle increased the least and prices for hogs
increased the most. Chicken prices had increased slightly more than prices
of beef cattle. Increases in supplies of chicken and beef have partly
offset the effects on prices of the stronger demand for those products.
Supplies of beef are large chiefly because of the largo increase in cattle
feeding during the past year. The cycle of chicken production is about the
shortest of all cycles of livestock enterprises, and as illustrated this
*year, the supply can be increased materially in a few months. Supplies of
chicken meat this fall and winter as a whole will be something like 15 percent
larger than a year earlier, In view of this increase and the 25 percent
increase in consumer income, the increase in chicken prices this fall over
last compares favorably with increases in prices of other farm products.
The average price received by farmers for chickens in mid-October was 20


- 13 -







NOVEMBER 1941


percent higher than in October 1940. The products showing the largest
advances in prices are those also showing only slightly larger supplies
this year than last. Supplies of some products are smaller.

The increase in cash: farm income from chickens will compare favorably
with increases in cash farm income from other sources despite the fact that
the increase in chicken prices this fall over last is among the smallest of
all commodities.. FarM marketing of chickens this year probably will be
something like 10 percent larger than in 1940 and the avorLge' price received
in 1941 will average a little more than 20 percent higher than in 1940.

OUTLOOK CHICKENS

BACKGROUND.- Domestic supplies of chickens in 1910 "were smaller
than in 1939 and prices received by farmers for chickens during
1940 increased relative to a year earlier. This encouraged
further expansion of the specialized broiler an4 fryer industry.
The number of chickens raised on fairs this year'also increased
considerably. The marketing of chickens is about'at the*
seasonal peak now and the increase in supplies over last year
has offset a large part of the effects on prices of the much
stronger demand this fall than last.

The outlook for chickens during the remainder of this year and in
1942 was discussed in detail in the September issue of'The Poultry and Egg
Situation. Since there has been little change in the outlook during the
past month or two, the principal points bearing on the. ftureo are- outlined
below. *..

(1) The market movement of this years record chicken crop is about
at the seasonal peak and will continue larger than a year earlier during the
rest of 1941 and into 1942. The record farm marketing for the. next few
months may be supplemented by an even larger commercial broiler output than
that of the winter of 1940-41.

(2) Although specific encouragement is not being given to the broiler
industry for an increase in production it is likely that the total output
will be increased over that of a year earlier. Thu capacity for producing
broilers has been expanded considerably since last winter so that oven if
existing facilities were operated at a lower rate this 'year than last the
total output night be greater. It is impossible to determine how much
additional output would be desirable in the long run and it, thorofore, seems
particularly hazardous to expand facilities materially at this time.

(3) Expansion of the poultry industry has boon encouraged primarily
to obtain increased supplies of eggs. It is expected, however, that the
number of chickens- raised on farms in 1942 will be larger than this years
number. The slaughter of farm chickens-in 1942 is expected to approach
750 million head (the tentative goal established for chicken l-victhtor),
about 10 percent more than the probable slaughter this year. m,.; E. level
of slaughter will be closely approached even if the number of chicleons raised


- 14 -






PEs-59


- 15 -


on farms in 1942 is no more than 6 to S percent larger than the number raised
this year. The combined slaughter of farm chickens and commercial broilers
may increase as much as 13 or 14 percent in 1942 compared to 1941. This does
not mean that the total hatch is expected to incroise by 13 or 14 percent.
The increase in chicken slaughter ii- 1942 compared to this year will be
larger than the increase in the total hatch because fowl marketing in 1942
very likely will be larger than they wero this year, and numbers of chickens
on farms may increase only moderately next year compared with a probable
increased of 50 million head or more during 1941.

(4) Prices of heavy young chickens de.cclined with the increase in
. marketing, and wholesale prices of such classes now are little different
from prices a year ago. Prices of almost all classes of young chickens
probably will rise during the course of the next few months as marketing
decline seasonally. The large storage stocks in prospect will tend to limit
the extent of the increase. For 1942 as a wholo it is expected that average
prices received by farmers for chickens will average higher than in 1941.

TURKEYS

Supplies of turkeys for consi ption this fall are almost as large as
the record supplies a year earlier, The number of turkeys raised on farms
this year is expected to be slightly (0.3 percent) larger than the number
raised in 1940 (excluding the more than a million birds lost in a storm last
year), and turkeys are expected to average sli-htly heavier this year than
last. It is likely, however, that supplies of neat will not be as large this
fall as last because more turkeys will be carried over into 1942 than were
carried over into 1941, and cold storage holdings of turkeys this fall are
smaller than a year ago. At the seasonal low point in holdings on November 1,
United States storage stocks of turkeys tot-led 4 million pounds, about
one third less than on November 1, 1940.

Wholesale prices of turkeys have been averaging about one fourth
higher than a year ago. The increase in prices of tor.s, however, is about
double the increase in price of hons. The pricu of young tons at Chicago in
mid-November was about 36 percent higher than a year ago while hens were
about 17 percent higher than in mid-November 1940. In 1940. larger price
differential were established in order to move the heavier birds. This
year, with the much stronger consumer demand, the various weights tre solving
at more nearly the same price. In addition, Government purchases for per-
sonnel in the Arry and Navy are much larger this year than last and consist
of a large proportion of heavy birds,

Tho movement of turkeys to market started in volume in early November.
Prices paid to farmers are reported to be running about one third higher than
those of last fall. The average price received by farmers for turkeys in
mid-October, 18.8 cents, was 28 percent higher than in October last year.
As a result of these favorable prices and the scarcity of eggs last spring,
it is expected that more breeder hens will be saved this year than last.
This would form the basis for a considerable expansion in turkey production
in 1942.






NOVEMBER 1941


- 16 -


Price per pound received by farmers for live turkeys, United States

: Jan.: Feb.: Lar.: Apr.: Iisy : June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: :ov.: Dec.
Year 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Jents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1935-39: 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.2 15.5 14.7 14.6 14.4 15.3 16.1 17.2 17.5

1938 : 17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.4 15.6 15.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 17.1 19.4
1939 : 18.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6 14.7 14.4 14.3 15.4 15.3 16.0 15.6
1940 : 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.3 14.7 15.5 15.5
1941 : 15.5 15.1 15.' 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.3 16.1 17.5 Id.8

Agricultural Mlarketing Service data.

FIED SIT'JATICN

The October 1 supply of feed grains for l'M41-42 was 120 million tons,
the largest total in over 20 years. The feed grain supply per animal unit is
expected to be slightly smaller than that of last year but 18 r.rcent above
the 1928-32 average.

Prices of feed grains and nan:' of the byproduct feeds advanced during
the past 3 weeks, efter declining during September and the first half of
October. Prices of all feeds are considerably higher than a year ago, but
corn prices have advanced relatively less than prices of other feeds.

The cost of the poultry ration, based on Chicago wholesale prices,
advanced in recent weeks but this rise was more than offset by the advance
in egg prices and the feed-eg, ratio declined further. This ratio is xmuch
more favorable than a year ago and about as favorable r.s the 10-year average.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)

: Week ending as of 1941
Year : Jan.: Ma y : Aug.:Sept.: Oct. : Nov. : Dec.
: 25 : 31 : 30 : 27 : 11 : 18 : 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 22 : 29 : 27
: Do:. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.
average :
1930-39: 5.70 7.11 6.07 5.6' 5.00 4.84 4.73 4.36 4.10 4.03 4.09 4.23 4.83

1939 : 6.G5 7.45 6.13 6.3z) 5.79 5.29 6.13 4.73 4.66 4.62 4.73 5.68 6.62
1940 : 5.38 7.82 6.78 6.02 6.19 6.21 5.95 5.61 5.90 5.76 5.34 4.53 5.52
1941 : 7.16 5.83 5.13 5.22 4.?3 4.56 4.61 4.55 4.39 4.14


agricultural Marketing Service data.








DOMESTIC DEMAND

The demand for farm products is expected to show some improvement from
recent levels over the next few months. Some additional increase in indus-
trial production and employment should occur during the winter, bringing
further gains in consumer incomes. Food-for-defense purchases in general are
expected to be increased, and some recovery from the recent slump in specu-
lative demand is indicated.

The general level of wholesale prices has shown no definite trend since
mid-September, following the broad advance of the preceding 6 months, but
this halt to the general rise very likely is temporary and the upward trend
will be resumed. The rise in the farm and food groups of products, however,
is likely to be much more moderate than during most of 1941.

Total nonagricultural employees' compensation,
United States

(Index numbers 1924-29 = 100)
Year Jan., Feb.,: !ar.: Apr.: I.ay June: July: Aug. Sept.: Oct.: !;ov., Dec.
Average:
1930-39: 83.2 83.2 84.1 84.0 84.6 84.6 81.0 81.6 84.0 86.1 84.9 85.7

1939 : 94.4 94.6 G6.6 95.5 96.C 98.0 94.7 96.6 100.1 104.6 104.7 106.5
1940 :101.4 101.1 1.02.6 102.8 104.7 105.3 102.4 104.7 109.0 113.3 113.2 117.3
1941 :115.2 115.5 119.9 121.9 126.5 129.9 127.9 130.4 /135.7

: Adjusted for seasonal variation
Average:
1930-39: 84.3 84.2 84.0 C3.6 83.8 84.0 83.7 84.0 33.7 83.9 83.9 84.0

1939 : 95.4 96.0 96.7 95.4 96.6 98.9 98.3 99.6 99.6 101.5 102.6 103.5
1940 :102.6 102.5 102.7 102.7 104.3 105.1 106.4 105.0 108.6 109.9 110.7 114.1
1941 :117.5 120.2 120.7 121.3 127.0 130.3 131.9 1553.2133.9

Based on data from the Department of Commnerce and the national bureau of
Economic Research.


1/ Preliminary.


PES-59


- 17 -




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
111111111III1111111 11111 1111 III111111
3 1262 08904 0587

..A".*


NOVE:BER 1941


18 -


SIDEX OF SPECIAL SUBJECTS DISCUSSED IN THE
POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION


Page

Poultry producers and the 1942 farm program ..... 4-6

Outlook for turkeys, 1941-42 .................... No page no.

Outlook for chickens and eggs in 1942 ........... "

Nonagricultural employees' compensation, a new
measure of consumer demand .................... 20

Wholesale prices of live fowls and chickens at Chicago:
Index numbers of seasonal variation, and price
differentials between various market classes of
chickens ...................................... '16

Differentials between Chicago wholesale prices cf
hens and prices of specified market classes
of young chickens, 1930-31-1940-41 ............ 14-20

Wholesale prices of live fowls and chickens at
Chicago, 1930-31 to 1940-41 ................... 14

A moving seasonal adjustment for egg prices ..... 13

Downward trend in costs of egg production ....... 14

Estimated storage margin on shell eggs per dozen,
averages 1916-35 and 1925-34, annual 1935-40 .. 8

Eggs,per dozen: Estimated storage margin, 1916-37 9

Geographic location of storage stocks of eggs ... 6-8

Geographic location of storage stocks of poultry 11

Factors affecting the average price received by
farmers for turkeys in the United States ...... 13-16

A comparison of four feed-egg ratios ............ 10-13

Feed-egg.ratio defined .......................... 10-11


Issue

October 1941

October 1941

September 1941


September 1941


,Auguat 1941



July 1941


June 1941-

May 1941

March 1941


February

February

December

November


1941

.1,193Q

1940

1940


October 1940

May 1, 1940

December 4,19..






:II;: