Poultry and egg situation

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Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
September 1941
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00064

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text








BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMITUCSATION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

SEPTEMBER 1941


1942 OUTLOOK ISSUE WITH CHARTS


SALES OF EGGS. PRICE AND CASH FARM INCOME
RECEIVED FOR EGGS. AND NONAGRICULTURAL
LABOR INCOME. UNITED STATES. 1910-40


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940
A BASED ON DATA FROM DEPT OF COMMERCE AND NATIONAL BUR OF ECON RESEARCH
U. DEPAMENT OF AGRICULTURE MES m911 [URE[AU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


EGG PRODUCTION ON FARMS IN 1942 IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 PERCENT
LARGER THAN IN 1941. BECAUSE OF THE PROSPECTIVE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN
CONSUMER DEMAND AND HEAVY PURCHASES FOR LEND-LEASE NEEDS, HOWEVER, EGG
PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE HIGHER IN 1942 THAN THIS YEAR. THE INCREASE
IN CASH FARM INCOME FROM EGGS IN 1942 OVER 1941 PROBABLY WILL CLOSELY PARAL-
LEL THE INCREASE IN NONAGRICULTURAL LABOR INCOME; AND TOTAL CASH FARM IN-
COME FROM EGGS IN 1942 MAY BE THE LARGEST ON RECORD.


PES-57


I '____








THE EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE


EGGS
DOZENS I

8


7


6


5


4
CASES
I MILLIONS I

8


6


4


2


0
NUMBER



16



12


0
NUMBER
I MILLIONS)

325


300


275


250


225


APR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY
A. M. 8. DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL LABOR INCOME
SJRST OF THE MONTH. EXCLUDES U 8 D. A. HOLDINGS. BEOINNINO APRIL I. J940
S7ST OF THE MONTH EXCLUDES U. S. D. A. HOLDINGS, BEOINNINO JULY I 1941


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 39491 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


CASES
I MILLIONS )


I I I
LAYERS ON HAND




1941





Average
1930-39


OCT.






PES-57 3 -


T 3 POU LTR Y AND EGG S I T A T I 0


Summar y

Production of poultry products is responding rapidly to a. vora.le

prices, ar.d output in the United States in 1942 is expected to be the largest

on record.

The basis for a material increase in egg production in 1942 vas

established with the 14-percent increase in number of chickens raised on

farms this year over last. This yevr marked the upturn of the cycle of

chicken production, and with chicken and egg prices supported at not less

than 85 percent o2 parity a further increase of several percent in chicklens

raised in 1942 is probable. -4,ith the number of layers now in prospect for

next year it is likely that the tentative gcal established for egg produc-

tion in 1942 will be attained.

The goal for production of chicken neat in 1942 also is likely of

attainment. Only a moderate increase in tfne hatch ivill be necessary, since

the slaughter of fowls ir 1942 probably will be larger than in 1941, and

numbers of all chickens on farms may rot be inerr-se8 tn the extent they

were this year. The 1942 number of layers could be L.ai].tained into 191-3

even though the 1942 hatch should be no larger t'an this year's output.

The effects on prices received 'by farmers of the prospective larger

supplies of poultry products are expected to be more than offset by a

stronger consumer demand and by the Department's purchasing and price-

supporting program. Cash farm income from poultry products in 1942 will

be materially larger than in 1941 and probably the largest on record.

Farmers' costs also will be higher than in 1941 but may not increase as

much as income.







SEPTE3.ER 1941 4 -

Erg production continues larger than a year earlier and with favor-

able weather villa increase further relative to late 1940 as this year's much

larger nunher of pullets come into production. The margin of egg prices

over those of a year earlier has been decreasing along with the relative

increase in receipts. The price of frosh firsts at Chicago in the third

week of September was about 50 percent higher than in the corresponding

period of 1940, whereas in mid-August the difference was about 65 percent.

Egg prices are expected to continue -well above those of a your earlier, but

the increase may continue to be less than usual in view of the heavier

marketing in prospect.

Market supplies of young chickeL.s are continuing to increase and

storage stocks of poultry are being accumulated despite much smaller farm.

marketing of foil than a year ago. Wholesale prices of live chickens at

Chicago in mid-September were slightly lower than in mid-August but have

held un well in vie: of the heavy :narzetings. Prices of most classes are

2 to 4 cents hi .her now than a year a~,o.

September 22, 1941

GUTLOO : FCR FEEDS

ThM combined supplies of corn, oats, and barley for 1941-42, plus
the 1941 production of grain sorghiuns, total 125 million tons, slightly more
than the supply last year and 17 percent above the 1i28-32 average. In
the central area of the Corn Belt supplies of corn are about 50 percent
above the predrought average. Supplies in the eastern Corn Belt also are
considerably larger than the 1928-32 average, but in the area west of the
Missouri River supplies are considerably below this average though larger
than in other recent years.

Supplies of wheat millfeeds for 1941-42 will be above average for
recent years and supplies of high protein feeds will be the largest on
record. Supplies of cottonseed, peanut, and copra cakes and meals are
expected to be smaller than in 1940-41, The reduction in these supplies,
however, is expected to be more than offset by a considerable increase in
supplies of soybean cake and meal. Supplies of linseed meal will be large
again in 1941-42, since flaxseed crushing will be heavy and foreign
markets for such cake and meal are closed.








Prices of feeds during the crop year 1941-42 are expected to be sup-
ported at, or above, the September 1941 level. A marked improvement in the
demand for feed .ras largely responsible for the rise in feed prices to date
this year, although" provisions -for higher loan rates on 1941 corn and wheat
were partly responsible. Prices of corn, oats, and barley are 10 to 15
cents per bushel higher than in Sentember 1940, and prices of wheat mill-
feeds and high protein feeds are upn from $10 to $15 per ton. With increases
in livestock production in prospect for 1942 and with no material drop in
livestock prices, feed prices may be expected to continue considerably higher
than during the past ferrw years.

Unless feed prices advance more than now senmr likely, ho-,-ver, the
feed-egC ratio d'.ring the coning winter and spring period probably will be
more favorable than average and more favorable than during the early part of
the 1940-41 production season. During the week ended S-ptember 13 t;er- feed-
egg ratio at Chicago was 13 percent more favorable than a y.,ear earlier ard
6 percent more favorable- than the 1930-39 average.

Foed-egg ratio at Chicago
(Dozens of eggs required to bu'r I0 pounds of poultry ration)
: heal : e .C..I. as cf 1941
Year : Feb.: May : July: :____ : Lept. : Oct.: Dec.
: 22 : 31 : 26 : 13 : : : : 13 : 20 : 27 : 25 : 27
: Doz. Doz. Doz. ozoz. Doz. Doz. Los. Loz. Loz. Doze, Do. Doz,
Average:
1930-39: 6.06 7.11 6.59 6.43 6.20 6.,7 5.S7 5.76 5.75 5.65 4.73 4.83

1939 6.21 7.45 5.76 6.15 6.33 6.13 7.08 6.5F 6.66 6.39 5.13 6.32
1940 : 6.23 7.82 7.61 7.17 7.08 6.78 6.36 C.25 E.87 6.02 .95 5.52
1941 : 7.48 5.E3 5.30 5.39 5,24 5.13 5 .32 5.44

Agricultural Iarketing Servico data.

EGG S ITU.T ICG

REVIEW OF RECEIPT DEZELOPO"iTTS

Number of Layers Continues to Increase
Relative to a Year Ago

The number of layers declined about normally from January to May this
year. !Fron I!ay to about Aurust, however, the nunmbr declined less than usual
and much less than a year earlier. Data for Soplcaber 1 indicate that the
number is continuing to increase more tl an usral. Th.e re3atiiely more favor-
able feed-egg ratio than feed-chickcr ratio was instrumental in restricting
fowl marketing this summer. The who sale rice of hers this summer vas
about one-third higher than a year ssrlier, wherras the price of eggs was
about two-thirds higher than in the summer of 194K*. In addition, extension
poultrymen and others encouraged farmers to postpone nrkcting their old hens
in order to obtain larger egg production in the late sur.ne.r and early fall.

In August the average number of layers on farms in the United States
was 1 percent larger than in Augus- 1:4C. With a 3-percent higher rate of


PES-57


- 5 -




SEPTEMBER 1941


lay about 4 percent more eggs were produced during the month than in August
last year. By regions the changes frcm a yeer earlier in the August egg out-
put were as follows: North Atlantic, 4 percent; East North Central, 5 per-
cent; 1'est r.orth Central, 6 percent; South Atlantic, -2 percent; South
Central, 7 percent; and Wlesternb 1 percent.

Egg production in the United States since September 1 apparently has
continued larger than a year earlier. Receipts at Midwest primary markets
have been twice as large as a year ago, and receipts at Pacific Coast Primary
markets are larger than a year earlier for the first time this year. As a
result of heavy marketing of freshly produced eggs the net withdrawals of
shell eggs from storage in recert veels have been smaller than a year earlier.

Number of layers on farms, United States

Year 'Jan. :Feb. :Mar. ::Artr. May *June *July :Aug. .Sept.Oct. .NJov, N Dec.
: iL. Il Ira. I a l. Wi 1 Mile I, Mil. 1. Mil, Fil. 'ile ~~il.
Average
1930-39: 332 325 315 301 264 267 253 246 256 278 300 322

1938 : 307 301 292 278 262 248 236 234 245 269 293 314
1939 322 316 306 292 276 260 246 242 253 279 3'5, 326
1940 : 332 527 318 3C4 289 270 252 247 257 279 303 320
1941 : 324 313 303 295 280 266 254 249


Average number of eggs produced per layer, United States

Year Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Ar, :.May :June "July .AUg. .Sept..Oct. *Nov. *Dec.
: !o. No. iTo. No. To. No. Nio, 1ica !!o. No. No. No.
Aver age:
1930-39: 6.6 8. 14.3 16.7 16.3 14,2 12.7 11.2 8.9 6.8 5.0 5.2

1938 : 7.9 9.5 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 11,8 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1959 : 8.0 9.7 14.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9,3 7.4 6.0 6.8
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.8 153.4 11,8 9.7 7.9 G.2 6,8
1941 : 8.7 10.Z 15.C 16.9 17.4 15.1 13.8 12.2


Total farm production of eggs, United States


Year :Jan. :Feb, liar. :Apr. :May .June iJuly :Aug. .Sept. Oct, llov. .Dec.
: Ei!. i. aiI. iil, il, 1 1l, Lil. 0Iil. 1a il. W1ilT I. il7 'iil.
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average:
1930-59: 6.0 8.0 12.5 13.9 13.2 10.5 8.9 7,6 6.4 5.2 4.1 4.7

1938 : 6.7 8.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5.5
1939 : 7.2 8.5 12.6 13.8 13.0 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 8.2 12.7 14.0 13.7 11.1 9.4 8.1 7.0 6.1 5.2 6.0
1941 : 7.9 9.1 12.8 13.9 13.5 11.1 9.7 8,5


Agricultural Marketing Service data.


- 6 -






PES-57 7 -

Total Storage Stocks of Eggs Now Are
Larger Than a Year Ago

The-net out-of-storage movement for both hell and frozen eggs
during August was much lighter than in August 19110. During the first
week in September an into-storage movement for frozen eggs occurred. This
is the first time such a movement has occurred after September 1.

On September 1 total United States stocks of shell eggs uere 15
percent smaller and:private stocks were 11 percent smaller than a year earlier.
The Department of Agriculture owned 619,000 cases on that date this year
compared with 1,025,000 cares on September 1, 1940. Total holdings of
frozen eggs were about one-third larger .than a year earlier, and privately
owned stocks were 20 percent over those of Septembsr 1, 1940.

Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States and storage movement at
26 markets

United States : Out-of-storagc movement, 'N-eek
Year : stocks : __ending noas of 1941
Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Aug. Sept._ : Oct.
: 5 0 : l;-: 13 : 20 : 2_ 7 : __
1,000 1,0)0 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Shell : cases cases cases cs cases cases cases case cases
.1 Average
-1930-39 ...: s,304 7,754 116 143 1s6 188 205 242

1939 .......: 7,024 6,598 g9 156 208 163 201 250
1940 ....... :1/6,716 J/6,216 125 165 210 191 190 263

1941 ....... :1/6,.402 5,515 95 102 S4
Frozen
Average
*1930-39 ...: 3,536 3,352 --- ---

1939 .......: 4,125 3,8g4 29 37 64 714 62 64
1940 .......: 4,427 14, 162 36 50 57 71 61 58

1941 ....... :1/5,574 ,542 19 4/ 6 09

Agricultural Marketing Service data.
t/ Excludes U. S. Department of Agriculture holdings as follows: Aug. 1,
1940, 1,068,000 cases; Sept. 1, 1940, 1,025,000 cases; Aug. i, 1941, 239,000
cases; and Sept. 1, 1941, 619,000 cares.
2/ Preliminr.ry.
j/ Excludes U. S. Department of Agriqulture holdings as follows: Aug. 1,
51,000 cases and Sept. 1, 549,000 cases.
V/ Into-storage movement.

Egg Prices Advancing Less Than Se,-sonally

Advances of 2 to 6 cents in egg prices during August were fairly
general. During the first half of September, however, prices hald steady
and wholesale prices in general increased less than seaconrlly from mid-
August to mid-September. As a result, the excess of prices over those of





SEPTEMBER 1941


- 9 -


a year earlier had diminished somewhat. These price movements coincided
with increases in receipts relative to a year earlier. In mid-September
the price of fresh firsts at Chicago, at 29 cents, was about 50 percent
higher than a year previous. The average price received by farmers in
mid-AuCist, 26.8 cents, was 55 percent higher thsn in August 1940.

Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs, United States

Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: Mcy : June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec
ear 15 : 15 15 t 15 I Id 15 15 15 15 i 15 15 15
:Conts Cents Cents Cents Cent3 Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cent
Average:
1930-39: 22.8 18.8 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 17.0 18.7 21.9 24.7 28.2 26.,

1938 : 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.0 17.6 1S.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.'
1939 : 18.8 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.
1940 : 18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2 26.
1941 : 19.7 16.s 16.4 19.7 20.1 23.2 25.6 26.8

Agricultural Marketing Service data.'

Department Announces Further Price Support
for Chickens and Eggs

In early September the Secretary of Agriculture announced.that in
order to encourage sufficient production of some products prices .received
by farmers would be supported at not less than 85 percent of parity until
December 31, 1942. The products specifically included are chickens, eggs,
evaporated milk, dry skim milk, cheese, nnd hogs. For chickens and eggs
this price-supporting program is different from that announced last April in
that it applies to farm prices, not to market prices. Parity price for a
commodity having a pro-war brse is thrt price which gives to the commodity
a purchasing power, with respect to articles that farmers buy, and'interest
and tr.xes payable per acre on farm real estate, equivalent to the purchasing
power in the base period (August 1909-July 1914).

Computation of Parity Prices

For eggs parity prices are computed as follows: The simple average
of prices received by farmers for eggs in the base period (21.5 cents per
dozen) is multiplied by the current index number of prices paid by farmers
for commodities (including interest xnd taxes), and then this figures is
divided by 100. I/ To determine the parity price of eggs for any month an
adjustment for seasonal variation is made. This is done by multiplying the
above result by the index of seasonal variation in egg prices for the month
in question and dividing by 100. (Index numbers of seasonal variation in
egg prices were published in the May issue of The Poultry and Egg Situation
report.)

Using data for August 1941 the computations are as follows; 21.5
cents (price in base period) X 135 (index number of prices paid, including
interest and tnxes) 4 100 w 29 cents ( adjusteded. 29.0 cents X 97

/7 These monthly index numbers are published by the Agricultural Marketing
Service in its mid-month local market price report.






PES-57 9 -

(August index number of seasonal variation) 4 100 = 28.1 cents, the parity
price for August 1941. The overage price received by farmers for eggs in
the United States in August was 26.8 cents or 95 percent of parity. Eighty-
five percent of parity for August was 23.9 cents.

The base-period prica for chickens is 11.4 cents per pound. Parity
prices for chickens are computed in the same way as for eggs except that no
adjustment is made for seasonal variation. Farmers have been receiving a
larger percentage of parity for chickens than for eggs to date this year. 2/

It is apparent that with the current level of prices paid by farmers
for commodities used in production (the index number of which has advanced
materially in recent months), the support level of 85 percent of parity for
eggs is somewhat higher than the farm equivalent of the 22-cent Chicago price
announced last April.

Egg Purchases by the Department of Agriculture
Much Smaller in Recent 'pcks

The Department of Agriculture now is purchasing dried egg products
-ind shell eggs, but until further notice no more frozen eggs will be purchased.
Purchases by months pnd for recent weeks are shown in the accompanying table.
The approximate shell-egg equivrlont of all egg products plrch-tsed up to
September 20 was slightly cr'-r 5 million c..scs.

Purchases of e,-s by thn Doeprtment of Agriculture in 194l


Date Shell Frozen Dried
: Css 1,000 pounds 1,000 pounds
Month:
Jan. ......: 4,003 --- --
Feb. .......: 173,003 ---
Mar. ......: 72,191 ---
Apr ...... : S6,925 --- ---
May ........ 398,711 15,527 s4o
June ...... : 38,401 6,240 735
July ......: 316,535 42,218 4,750
Aug. ....... : 96,736 2,205 6,525

Week ended:
Sept. 6 ...: --* --- 1,298
13 ... --- 1.337
20 ...: 42,850 --- 1,345

Data from Surplus Marketing Administration.


2/ Prices received by farmers for chickens rand eggs from 1910 to date as
percentages of parity are presented in tables nppenring toward the end of
this report.





SEPTEMBER 1941


Exports of Eggs

Total exports of shell eggs have inc.'eased considerably since April.
Exports of e;gs for May and June 19'.1 were greater than for any calendar
year from 1931-40 inclusive. Export data by co-mtries are not available
but shipments to Britain under the lend-lepse authority no doubt are largely
responsible for the increase. However, additional quantities of eggs also
probably are being shipped to Carribbounn and other nearby outlets since they
formerly obtained large quantities from the low countries of Europe.

Exports of eggs and egg products, United States, by months,
19)0-41

Month Shell eggs : Egprodr-.ts
: _1940 1__1 : .-0o : 1941
: 1000 dozens 1,000 dozens Pounds Pounds

J-n. 284 C327 7,55h 34,522
Feb. 212 293 21,461 17,514
Mar. 363 359 23,121 77,252
Apr. 746 488 14,903 36,093
May 796 7,490 16,602 14,g47
June : 312 6,231 7,477 15,310
July 320 5,722 7,776 9,250
Aug. : 34 14,110
Sept. : 227 14,185
Oct. 310 9,549
Nov. 350 30,455
Dec. : 3218 21,839

Basic data from Donartm-nt of Commerce.

OUTLOOK EGGS

BACKGROUND.- The number of eggs produced per hon increased
gradually during the pazt thrce decades. In recent years
the r.nnual rate of lay has avernCed about 10 percent higher
than in the 1c.te 1920'r. The increase in the fall Pnd
winter months has been most pronounced, exceeding 50 per-
cent over the late 1920's for November rand Decembor. As
a result of a higher average rn.tc of production relatively
fewer hens are supplying the nrtion's egg requirements
them a decade or more ngo. The number of layers reached
an all-time peak of 427 million in Jrnurry 1928. With the
droughts and unfavorable feeding ratios in the 1930's, the
number of layers was reduced considerably, especially in
the West North Centrerl ".nd South Central States, but these
areas will recover much of their losses by next January.


- 10 -









Continued Heavy Egg Production. in rrospect

Egg production very likely will continue larger than a year earlier
during the remainder of 1941. As a result, the excess of egg prices over
a year earlier may continue to decrease. The nur.b r of layers on farms will
continue to increase rapidly relative to late 19-40. during comirg months and
the rate of lay per bird probably will continue at record or r.ear-rrcord
high levels. Total egg production on furis in 141 v:ill bhe something like
3.5 percent larger than in 1940.

Number of Pillets on Farms 9 Percent Larger
than a ear earlier on September 1

The 14-rercent larger number of chickens raised cn farms this ylar
than in 1940 resulted in 9 percent mere pullets on September 1 than on
September 1 a year ago. By regions, the ir.crf;ascs in pullit.- on S.pcc:-ber 1
over September 1, 1940 were as follows: North Atlantic,5 percent;
East North Central, S oerccnt; W:st North Central, 10 Perccnt; Sou.h Atlantic,
1 percent; South Central, 19 percEnt .-d .v7strn, 10 pcrcnt.

Although the incr.%.se over e ycar .ea-rlir in n'.;,mber of [u]llets on farms
declined from 19 percent on A'icgu-t t' J- c.rn' or. S pt-:mbr 1, conditions
in general favor a consLderasle iieri:S.t. in ,omb.-r of i'y. rs for 1.42.
Farrers are continuing to sell f:v'er clci h:ns thrtn the, did in 1940 and
with continued favorable egE prices :L larger proport] on of this y:ar's
pulluts will be savjd for ugg production ;therr than iarket.d for slaught,.r.
In addition the rr.cord largc lA.te ....tc-h ill t'rovide a considerable number
of pullets for adctition to ls'y'ing flocks wv.ll into 1942. Th-.se factors,
together with the campaign by extension workers ar.d c.tnrrs to encourage
farmers to keep all available liens for cgg production, rr.; cexprectcd to result
in an increase in layers by Janu.ary, IC12 of about 10 percent over January 1941,

Large Increases in 1'.tyers Taking Place in
trougnt Areas of l&'O's

Up until this year poultry n-umbers in the V.'est :L-krth Central and in
the South Central regions had not recovered from the effects of the droughts
in the middle 1&30's. But this ,ryear those regions show the largest in-
erea&s.s in chickens raised and ar,- expected to follow through with large
increases in layurs also.

Egg production In 1942 Expected to .a About
10 -er- t L. r.r hFban in 1 41

To supply sufficient eggs for domestic a r.d lend-le.os needs in 1942
a total egg production of a little over 4 billion Lozan L.ggs is needed.
This includes an allowance for nonfnr:n production and is about 10 percent
larger than the probable output this .-ear. The l'-rgest increases are ex-
pected in the- West .'orth Central and South Central S:.t.s. Some Stiates
may increase output 20 percent over the 1941 prodictirrn. Fhe rate of lay
in 1942 may average ev.:n higher thnr, in 1'-41 since tfi, proportion of pullets
in next year's flocks will be larger on the avzra:u tlan it was this year.


PES-57


- 11 -






SEPTEMBER 1941


- 12 -


In addition the feed-egg ratio next year probably -:.ill bc favorable for
egg, reduction during the Lntir'e -se=son of heavvy ojtp'it. In 13,11 the
ratio did not becor.3 favorable until April.

Favorable Egg Prices in Frospect

Egg prices in 19,12 are expected to average som,-what higher than in
1941. Purchases of uggs for ln-nd-1.,asJ n.rds in 1942 nar expected to total
Ubout a half billion dozen or bout 16-3/4 million cos.-s (approximate sh.ll-
egg :..quivalent). Thes.- pJrc'hses, which will suppl',me.t un cvesn stronger
confsu1re'r d'.nan;d irn his country than in 1941, form th.. bnsis for the favor-
ablj outlook for prices. If neocss.ry, in. order to s'apport price s a.t E5
percent of parity, the Department will purch-se eggs in addition to those
needed for lend-leasc shipments. Such elgs would be- used for distribution
to ocoole in low income groups and for building u rcss-rvrs of food in this
country. Even after allowing for c'. ,orts of ubout 13 percent of the prcs-
pectivn totFal production for 1942, dorn- stic supplies of' eggs on c per capital
basis will b,- as large as thr av-.rage for recent y-,arz, :r !..rger.

The number of Irnvers for 1943 will be larger tnan, in 19-12 if the
prospective increase in chic':en production mut-rinliz-.r. Egg production
in 1943 probably would incre ise corrcsnondinLgly. In such an cv'.nt, an even
stronger consumer demand than in 19-12 and p2rhalas increased purchases by
the Governnment :night be nLcescsar in order to prv..-nt low egg r'riccis tftvr
1942, depending r:-rtl en the- gcner-l lev-l of corru.rcdity prices.

Ampl,. Fgg-?rying Capacity now: in Frospoct for 1X-;,2

Prior to this yea-r the record production of drid cgE products in
this country was about 10 r.illion rcuzids. 0:: the bvsis .-f f. 29-22 hour-day
and 300 da"s' ODnration, plants in Lxistenca. in eirly 1Sll prob:'bl'y had
the csp.-ciny to produce 50 million rc.-u.ds of dried pr duct. To meet domestic
and lend-lzssc n~cds a much Ereat,:r output is ncrcd With govr.rnment&l
enrcour'gem-e-nt end smr.e grtontinfg of prioritis, it .:,-': appears that sufficien:
drying facilities "'aill be coiistr'.ccd. By. J-.r.u ry 12A42 tetal capacity on
an annual bssis is c:xr'ctrd to b.".- b-.tv;w.en 130 and 140 ,iillio:i pounds. This
will be aer'le to rovidt for :.crr-ol do;-,-stic n -.as nd,. m'".xi.num. British r.--
quests undcr the Icnd-laSL program'n, iad leov' zuffici:nt -faciliti.s tc dry
a large p-art o.f any sp.:cinl r-.-s .rv':; .f i' g s tht-.t ,ri,.y be set aside.

!jear-Recc.rd C-nsh 7arm Inrcone in Pr .[opct f'Lr

Cash: fnrm income frim '.gs in: 141 probably will be about one-third
large:'r thai in 190C and maiy be the largest since 1j2.. In 1942 cash fa.rm
income fron this source will be much ]F.rger thaT in 1.il, th.- lrgiesL since
1920, and it min'y even ob the Isrgest n r-ecord. Higher cost will partly
offsv.t the larger returns in 1942, but all things cur.sidercd it vill b-e
mo-re profitable than overage to produc.. c-gs ne::t ycor. The efficica:cy of
eg.g pr-ducti-.n has increased materially in dhe past 10 or 15 years.









POUNDS
(MILLIONS )
40



30



20



10


0 J
CENTS PER
POUND



15




13




11
CENTS PER
POUND



18 -










12
_-4,


THE POULTRY SITUATION
I I I POUNDS
RECEIPTS OF POULTRY I MILLIONS:
AT FOUR MARKETS -- 60



1940O. -
dO



Average
1930-39 | 20
-1941-




F-- POUNDS
FARM I MILLIONS
RICE OF 60
CHICKENS -

____ Average
/1930-39
240




20
W 1940



I I POUNDS
FARM PRICE OF TURKEYS (MILLIONS
I I 60
Average
1935-59












....L .. L. o0


JAN. APr. JULY ULI.
A. M. S. DATA A FIRST OF THE MONTH
U. DEPAaTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


AT A GLANCE


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
* INCLUDES BROILERS. FRYERS AND ROASTERS
NEG. 39452 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2


) U. S. STOCKS OF FOWLSA




1941
1941 1940


SAverage
S I 930-39



1^ Y | | |


I A hi m ...... ...





SEPTEMBER 1941 14 -

POULTRY SITUATION

REVTEW OF hBEGNT D3VELOPMFTTS

Hatchery QOut2rt in 1941 Large t Jn Fistory

In early 1941 fairers indicated that the;- intended to purchase about
9 percent nore chicks than in 1940. The early season chick demand was in
line with those intentions, but as egg prices weakened in late February and
in early Marrc. the demand for chicken declined. As egg- prices began advancing
in late March, however, the demand for cnickc again increased and after the
Secretary's .annou:l.ement of the price-supiorting program in early April, farm-
crs' demand -f.r ci '.ks kont hatcheries operating at record levels. During
the first F i,.nths *.f -,r'., 14 percent more chicks were produced than the
previous record for tn:-t period in 1939 and 25 percent more than in the cor-
responding months of 1940. Formers parchrsed from hatcneries about 77 percent
of the chickens they raised this year compared with 73 percent in 1940 and
less than 50 percent a d.-cdo ago.

liarkctingg .f Youn-_ Ohickons Increasing;
FL,_ -I '. ,ing

ar etings of fowls in recent week have been nearly one-third smaller
than a ye-. earlier. The movement of young chickens on the other hand has
contin-dU.A --r than in the corresponding period of 1913 though by a slightly
Cocl1.: -.n r.ia. ; ur"nr, thc. week en.led Soct.ember 13 receipts of young stock
at cen-.ra'l iest primary larkcts were 4 percent larger than in the correspond*
wee!: of last year.

Receipt." of dressed poultry at four markets

___ (ew Yurk, Cij.cago, Philadelphia, Boston)
Year :_ ... ''TT'ee. ending as of 191
Year _: Jul." : ,. : SeOt. :___ Oct.
____ _.- : : :" :" 6 : l j : 20 : 27 : 25
:1,C.u -, jO0 1,0 1,jOO 1,0C'C 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:pocn.s L o, s :.o,..ds -ronds sounds pounds rounds punds pounds pounds
Average:
1 50-39: 4,832 4,380 5,093 5,224 5,30o 5,303 5,761 6,238 6,627 7,641

1939 : 5.942 6,91-.8 5,Sos 5,624 6,0o1 5,18s 6,4h3 7,371 7,530 8.438
1910 : 5,'?"- 6,079 7,548 7,003 7,547 6,807 7,979 S,478 8,4o3 9,796
1941 : 7,o0 61,339 6,931 6,591 7,499 6,756 9,912

Agricultural M-larketing Service data.

Storage stocks of ,,young chickens increased considerably during August,
the increase more than offsetting the declines in holdings of fowls and tur-
keys. 1 -..-. stocks of r.oultry increased about 4 million pounds during the
month and on Septeciber 1 were 4 percent larger than the previous record high
for that dote a *-car earlier. Stocks of broilers were up 56 percent; stocks
of fryers were about trice as large, and stocks of roasters were nearly three








PES-57 15 -

times as large as on Septembr 1. 19-0. Stocks of f:.rls -3rc ,i'wn 14 percent
and stocks of turkeys were j3 percent under the record SebtM.Iber 1 stocks of
1940. Although holdings of poultry on Septenber 1 ar" n-'r.ally about at the
seasonal low point, the distrLbution among classes this year is significant.
Stocks of young chick-en new arc nearly twicc as largao RZ a year ago.

Poultr-: Storage t +-cks in the United States and storage
m.ovement at 26 markets

: United States : Into-storage movement, week ending as of 1941
Year : stocks : Aug. : Sept. : Oct.
: -Aug. 1 :Semt. 1 : 30_ 6 : 1i 20 : 27 : 4
: 1,0C 1,0 1,000 1,000 1,000 1, /'0 1,000 i1,00
: ounas roun...s pounds pounds pounds pnds pounds _ounds
Average:
1930-39: 4g,2S3 9,174 157 436 330 991; 1,SS7 2,073

1939 : 64,i9g 62,570 1/019 1/610 1/1,122 2/19 1,g19 sl1
1940 : F2,415 S2,173 1/S34 1-7 & 1,990 2,254 2,377
1941 : S1,206 2/S5,276 4 0 1,4so 735

Agricultural Marketinz S-v;'ice data.
1/ Out-of-storaog mov' ea:tPit.
2/ Preliminary.

Chicken Prices Contin-i .n ALove a Year
Earlier Despite Ieavier R-Eceits

Wholesale rice : uj' .u.'-r-tLn.- chickens at C:.icago in mid-September were
slightly lower than a .cn i earlier, but prLcoz of most cl.asseE wore from 2
to 4 cents higher than in Stolteraber 1(i40. WhTroles.-lc prices of heavier fowls
on the other hand wore r to 6 cents above a ;year earlier, rcflectlins much
lighter sales of hens by farmers. Prices of leghorn fowls were only slightly
higher than in Serterber 1940.




SEPTEMBER 1941


- 16 -


Poultry, live: Wholesale price, by classes, at Chicago, average
1936-40 and selected date-. 1940 and 1941

:A*:er:.ge: 1940 241
Class :i196-. : 1 O : : Week ending
.-_--- Aut.,Sert. Oct. Nov. AuW _6:Svpt.13:Spt-
:__ est. : be-. : : u Sept. 6:Sept.13 S.t.2
: Cents Ce'-ts Cents Cents Gents Cenms Cents Cente Cents
lens:
Over 5 pounds .......: 18.8 15.0 16.0 15.1 14.9 19.1 20.4 20.3 20.4
5 pounds and under ..: 16.6 15.0 16.0 13.1 12.6 17.6 19.7 20.4 19.3
Leghorn .............: 13.0 11.2 11.4 10.8 10.2 15.4 15.8 15.4 15.5
Spring chickens:
4 pounds and over
Colored ...........: 14.7 17.1 14.7 14.2 14.g 17.2 17.1 16.5 16.3
White Rock ........: 16.5 13.5 16.6 15.7 16.0 19.2 18.6 18.0 1S.8
Scarred Rock .......: 16.7 18.5 16.6 15.4 15.4 19.6 19.1 18.6 17.7
Under 4 pounds
Colored ........... : 15.4 15.9 14.5 13.9 14.3 17.0 17.3 17.0 16.E
White Pock ........ : 17.4 17.6 16.3 15-. 15.8 19.2 18-8 18i.4 18.5
Barred Rock .......: 17.7 17.3 16.4 15.8 16.1 19.3 19.5 19.3 18.2
Broilers:
2-1/2 pounds and under:
Colored ...........: 16.7 16.1 15.5 16.2 16.3 17.2 17.5 17.5 17.5
White Rock ........: 13.5 17.4 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
barred Rock ....... 1..5 17.6 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.Z 20.1 20.5 20.5

Jhicago Price Current.

Price per pound received by farmers for live cnickens,
United States

: Jan.: Feb.: iar.: Acr.: I'iay :Juaze :July : AI. :Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
ear : 15 : _: 15 : 1 : 15 15 15 15 15: 115 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Crnts C-tt.s Cents Cents Cents Cents Cc is Cents Cents Cents
Ave ra-e :
1930-39 : 14.0 14.2 14.4 1.o 114.7 14.4 l.i 1I4.0 1.3 13.7 13.3 12.9

1938 : 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.7 13.3 13.1 13.0
1941 13.7 14.o 14.4 15.7 16.3 16.3 16.S 16.3

Agricultural ilarketing Service data.

OUTLOOK CiHIC2MNS

3ACjKGROUID.- As n rocult of the relatively smaller number of
lpyers required now to produce the nation's supply of eggs,
the fowl slaughter accounts for a smaller proportion of the
annual production of chicken meat than formerl;. Before the
large increase in broiler output, production of young chickens
for meat fluctuated pretty closely with the number of pullets
raised for flock replacement.






PES-57 17 -

Commercial broiler production has more than made up
for the relatively smaller quantity of meat coming from the
fowl slaughter. Since broiler production has become a year-
round proposition, it has resulted in a lessoning of seasonal
variation in prices and consequently has stimulated consumption.

Chicken Slaughter in 194l Will B3o
the Largest in History

Preliminary data indicate an increase of 14 percent in the number of
chickens raised on farms this year compared to 1q40. Increases have occurred
in all regions, but are most pronounced i-n the West North Central and South
Central States -- the area.-s whcre numbers were reduced most during the drought
in the middle 1930's. Feed suppli-s in tncsc ar as this year werc the largest
in several years, and a considerable amount of unused housing capacity was
available as a result of the decline in numbers a few years ago.

The slaughter of farm-produced chickens this year is expected to total
around 680 million birds. In addition, tno slaughter of broilqrs. will be
something like 150 million hand, and nonfarm production probably will con-
tribute another 50 to 0O million. The total slaughter of chickcps in the
United States this year, t'hereforc, is expected to br' by far the largest on
record. The increase ii. meat supplies may be cvonr larger than the increase
in number slaughtered since condition's this year favor feeding to heavier
weights.

DesieLa the prospective heavy marketings, the aver.Lag price received
by farmers for chickens is expected to remain abovo a year earlier at least
for the next several months. The spread over a year earlier will continue to
be relatively greater for hens than for young chickens, however, since market-
ings of fowl will d:clIne and marketings of young chickens will increase sea-
sonally. In fact, prices received by farmers for soma classics of young
chickens later this year may average little different from those a year earlier

A Further Increase in Chicken Production
in Prospect for ri-2?

Although prices received by farmers for chickens ma:y decline later
this year, chicken producing in 1941 has been v3ry favorable. Thus with a
favorable outlook for chicken and eg, prices for 1342, a further increase in
chicken production next year probably will result. It is likely that with
the larger number of f.)wls to be marketcd, total slaughter of farm-produced
chickens in 1942 will reach 750 million head -- the goal specified by the
Secretary of Agriculture in the recently announced food expansion program.
The number of all chickens on farms probably will not be incrrascd as much
in 1942 as this yper. S:umbcrs of chickens on farms may be increased 50 mil-
lion head or more during. 1911l, but only a mod:ratc increazc nay occur during
1942. Because of tno probability of a heavier fowl n1".u.hter next year and
a smaller increase in size of farm flocks, the desired claighter .iy be
attE.incd with an incrc-se in hatchin2s over a year earlier only half as
large as occurred in 1941. An increrso any lar. r th'n. that M;ay cause
considcr-.blc readjustr.-..it difficulties latcr. The .aubcr of layers .for 1943







SEPTEMBER 1941


- 18 -


could be maintained at the 1542 level ever though the 1942 hatch should be
no larger than this year's output.

Because of the further improvement in consumer demand for poultry
expected for 1942 and the relatively elastic nature of that demand, prices
received by farmers during most of 1942 may average higher than in 1941. How-
over, during the last fow, months of 1942 a very strong demand may be nocosnary
to eoop prices above those of lato 1941 since the prospective record supplies
of chickens probably will bo competing with record domestic supplies of other
ncats. If favorable price sho--:1d continue through the heavy marketing sea-
son in the fall of next year, tho usur.1 3-yoar cycle of chicken production
may be modified in that further increases might occur in 19h3. In such an
event chicken price in 1943 might decline even if the 1942 level of consumers
incomes were maintained, since the fowl slaughter in 1943 would bo even larger
than that in prospect for next year, although prices at that time also will
depend partly upon movcmints of the general price level,

Government to Purchase Chickens
Under Lend-Lease Authority

On September 3 the Federal Sur-1us Commodity Corporation announced
that it was prepared to receive offers for the sale of canned, boned chicken.
Offers in response to the first announcement were received up to September 10
and 52,000 pounds were nurc'.ased. Arrangements are being made to purchase
additional quantities. During 1942 it is expectaec'. that about 18 million
pounds (drossed-wcight basis) of poultry, mostly chicken, will be purchased
for export under the lend-lease program or for other purposes.

Broiler Output Has Increased Rapidly

Indications are that the broiler industry during the past year or so
as a whole has operated at about 5C percent of prevailing capacity. In other
words, if all houses had been filled to capacity all year, nearly twice as
many broilers cculd have been produced. In 1941 at least 150 million broilers
will be produced, an cutput equivalent to perhaps 15 percent of the probable
domestic chicken production. Thus, if chicken prices should average much
higher next year than now ::ppcars likely, chicken production may increase con-
siderably more than is now expected (because of increased broiler output)
since supplies of hatching eggs probably will be more abundant next year than
they were this year.

In connection with the poultry expansion program, however, it is
emphasized that the need is decidedly more for eggs than for meat. The de-
sired slaughter as recently, announced is expected to result from the price
relationships in prospect. Broiler production has increased from one-fourth
to one-third annually for several years -nd already contributes a sizable
portion of the total chicken production in the United States. It is hard to
determine, during the present abnormal times, just how much additional ex-
pansion would be justified in the long run. But, in r-neral, it appears to
be rather hazardous to expand pernane: poultry housing facilities materially
at this time. With fowl slaughter much larger during the next few years and
production of young chickens on a higher level, per canita supplies of chicken









meat will be by far the largest in history. In addition, domestic per capital
supplies of other meats probably will be the largest in more than a decade.
Maintenance of favorable prices under these conditions arc dependent upon a
continued strong consumer demand for all meats.

TURKEYS

Preliminary data indicate turkey production in '"941 will be about 5
percent larger than in 1940. This year's slaughter, however, probably will
be a little smaller than in 1940. Fewer turkeys w3re carried over from last
year for marketing in earl;.- 19hl and more will be carried over into 1342 be-
cause of the largo late hatch and the probability. of some increase in the
number of breeding stock. Turkey prices for 1941 will average materially
higher than in 19,0. This probably -.-'1. lead to further expansion in turkey
production next year.

The average price received by farmers for turkeys inr mid-August, 16.1
cents per pound, was 20 pcrcnt higher than in At-aust 1,40. 'holesalo prices
for live turkeys strei.gthned somewhat further in mid-September.

Price per pound received by farmer for live turkey s, United Sta.tes

: Jan.: Feb.: iVar.: Apr.: lAy :Jvr.n :July : Au.:Se]-t.: Oct.: 17ov.: Dec.
Year : 15: 5 : 15: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Ccnts Cents Centu C.arts C.'ntz Cents C'nts Cants
Average:
1935-39: 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.2 15.5 14.7 14.6 14.4 15.3 16.1 17.2 17.5

1938 : 17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 1-.' 15.6 15.7 15.l 16.0 16.5 17.1 s1.1
1939 : 18.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6 1'.7 14.4 1l.3 15.4 15.3 16.0 15.'
19~0 : 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.': 14.3 14.7 15.5 15.-
1941 : 15.5 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.8 16.1

Agricultural Marketing Service data.

DOMESTIC DEI,'ATD

TPrther gains in the consumer demand for farm products are in prospect
for the remainder of 1941 but the gains arc expected to be rore moderate than
those during the past S months. Industrial activity has about stopnod rising,
partly as a result of tne diversion of materials from civilian use to defense
needs. The rapid gains in economic activity which occurred prior to August,
ho'-ever, will result in some further increases in consumer income. The limi-
tations on output of durable gocds for consumer use '-ill release more of the
income for purchases of nondurable items, including fod and other products
using farm commodities a'z raw materials.

Consumer incomes are expected to increase further during 1942 as the
econcly becomes adjusted to a lnrgcr production of defense r-atorials. (The
outlook for domestic done.r.d in 1942 will be presented in detail in the Cctober
issue of the Denand-and Price Sit-.tion.)


P:s-57


- 19 -






SEPT -!'BER 1941 20 -

ionagricultural Labor Income Fre~ented as
ar.improved Mcasure of Co:-.suimer Le-ianl

In connection with inuome rucearch being carried on in this Bureau
a series of data has been com-puted which measures the labor income rocoived.
by nonagricultural workers. This group constitutes a major portion of the
total ncnferm population :,and thereby also the most im'-ortent single outlet for
agricultural products. In recent years the aggregate income rec3lvad by this
Cgrop has constituted over two-thires of the total nonagriciltural income
a'yr-nt s.

Nonagricultural labor income for recent years was determined from
Department of Commerce data of income payments. It consists of salaries and
wagEs, and unomplooT.ent, retirement, and workman's cor.mpnsations and pensions
(oxclusivc of military pensiors).

Conparsble dcta f.>r corlier years were dcvcloo";d from ir.formation ob-
tained fror the INa.i4onal Pureau of Economic ReCoarch. TLo rosalting series
measures the flow of mcney to that group of the population which materially
alters its e-xpenditures for food when its income is changed. Generally speak-
ing, individuals receiving their income from interest, diviends, etc. are in
the higher income groups ond their demand for food is not changed materially
when their income changes. For those r-nsons the non:f:ricultu'ral labor in-
come series appears to be a better indicator of chan-os in tho level of demand.
for many farm products in recent years than tnose previously used.

Changes in cash farm income from. eggs arc closely, associated with
change in the nonagricultural labor incojes. In the cover *-agr chart these
two series are expressed Eis percentage changes from th.e preceding year rather
than as percentages of a fixed taste. Over the 2l-year ncriud so many gradual
changes have occurred in the structure of the economy a.id in the source of
income trr.t the long-time changes in the two surias .ihav boon quite different.
Relative to the period 1910-14, for example, nonaric::l.tra. labor income in
recent ,years has been much higher than ca.sh farm income from eggs. The annual
data and the monthly data of nonagricu'ltiural labor inco',e (unadjuztod. for
seasonal variation) are irescntcd in the followin- taieo. This series will
be carried hcreaft.'r in -he Poultry ard Zgg Situ...ion iast a.d of tha series
of index numbers of nonac:ricultural incouo payineucs.










Nonagricultural labor income, by months, 1M29 to date

Index numbers (1924-29 = 100) ___
Year Jan.. Feb.. Mar.: Apr.; May .June :July Aug..Sopt.. Octl. Nov.. DTc.


1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941


:105 .1
:103.9
: 88.8
74.0
: 60.0
71.3
74.4
:3.7
92.9
89.1
9: 4.4
:101.4
:115.2


106.1
103.2
rS.e
72 .3
EF.Y7
''1.3
'.5.3
"* .1
4 .4
,9.6
94.6G
101.1
115.5


106.3
10L.o6
89.2
71.5
L7.4
72.7
76 .5
P5.9
27.4
90.6
96.6
102.6
119.9


10e.5
103.8
98.8
69.4
57.6
71.4
77.3
PG .3
C8.7
90.5
95.5
102,8
121.9


111.3
103.8
88.6
68.2
59.3
72.9
77.6
88.1
99.9
90.4
96.9
104.7
126.5


111.5
102.9
87.3
66.0
61.1
72.7
77.5
88.8
100.0
90.6
98.9
105.3
130.2


108.9
97.4
82.8
60.6
60.0
69.7
74.6
86.4
96.7
87.5
94.7
102 .4
127.9


110.3
95.8
80,8
60.0
62.0
70.2
75.9
97.5
97.6
90.0
96.6
104.7


112.8
97.6
81,2
62.4
64.6
70.9
7&.3
90.3
99.1
94.1
100.1
10 s.0


114.0
97.6
80.8
63.8
67.2
73.4
82.1
94.0
100.5
96.9
1(4.6
113.3


109.6
94.0
78.1
62.1
66.8
73.0
82.0
94.5
96.9
97.1
104.7
113.2


108.7
92.8
76.4
61.2
70.6
74.0
84.8
96.8
95.3
98.9
106.5
1.17.3


Based on data from Departrent of Commerce and +he Tational Buroa'i of Eccnodic
Research.

I/ Annual data from 1910 to date are included in another table of this report.


- 21 -


FES-57






SEPTEMBER 1941 22 -

Chickers, live: Price received by farmers as 1:ercentage of parity price,
arnuql, 1910-^0, by months, Mar:]h Tl23 to date



Year Percentag" Yo-.r Percentage Year Pcrcent-ege Year Percentage


1910 : 105 1918 : 109 : 1926 : 114 : 1934 : 77
1911 : 94 : 1919 : 106 : 1927 : 107 : 1935 : 100
1912 : 96 : 1920 : 107 : 1928 : 110 : 1936 : 105
1913 : (3 : 1921 .: 112 : 1929 : 119 : 1937 : 102
1914 : 107 : 1:.2 : 103 : 1930 : 103 : 1938 : 104
I15 : 6 : 1923 .: 101 : 1931 : S3 : 1939 92
1916 : :1L?4: 102 1932: 85 : 1940: 90
1917 : 100 : 1925: 105 :1933: 70 :

IMonthly
: Jr-.. 7 : l,: .Iar.: Apr.: May : June: July: A'.:Sept,: Oct.: Nov.:Dec.
:-. --'" ...- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-
: c,.:t c..t- cerAt cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent

1925 : 00 103 106 107 110 1C5 105 102 95 89
1924 : 94 97 101 104 109 110 108 107 105 103 98 94
1925 : 9r 9. 10i3 109 113 111 110 109 1C6 104 100 102
1926 : lf 11. 113 12C 123 12'1 122 115 111 108 105 104
1327 : 100 1S 113 115 113 ICd 1(5 14 1C(3 164 103 102
1328 : l le 1% 16 19M8 112 111 113 112 116 115 113 112
1929 : 114 116 119 125 128 130 125 1]9 118 114 107 102

1930 : 10 110 11: 115 109 104 9P 96 99 98 93 88
1931 : 9 9: 9: 102 93 101 1(1 1C4 1C2 94 6 93
1932 : 92 87 S 90 88 83 E5 85 65 79 76 69
1933 : 72 73 72 77 81 77 78 71 67 65 62 61.
1934 : 37 72 74 77 77 77 81 77 85 79 79 79
1935 : 33 89 95 103 105 104 94 95 105 108 110 110
1936 : 114 117 115 117 115 115 110 102 100CO 94 89 84
1937 : C 83 93 97 S5 95 93 103 114 117 113 110
1938 : 112 107 107 109 109 107 103 98 99 94 94 94
1939 : 97 99 99 100 97 93 95 92 93 87 85 80

1940 : 83 84 88 88 93 91 94 92 94 92 90 89
1941 : 94 9c3 98 107 110 103 111 ICs







- 23 -


Eggs: Price received by farmers as percentaLe of parity price,
annual, 1910-40, by nontis, Mairch 1923 to date
_____________- -______ -r- -_I
Year :Fercentager Year Percentage Yea"r :Percentage Year :Percentago


1910 : 108 : 1918 : 107 : 1926 : 87 1934 : 67
1911 : 90 : 1919 : 103 : 1927 79 : 1935 : 86
1912 102 : 1920 : 108 : 1928 : 84 : 1936 : 83
1913 : 98 : 1921: 94 :1929: 90 :1937 75
1914 : 104 : 1922 : 61 : 193C : 74 : 1938 : 73
1915 : 94 : 1923: 84 :1931 : 63 : 139: 67
1916 : 93 : 1924 : 85 :1932: 62 :1940: 69
1917 : 107 : 1925 : 92 : 1953 : 60 :

: _orthly
Jen.: Feb.: i-r.: Apr.: MZny : J-ne: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: laov.: Dec.
: P-:- Per- Fcr- Per- Pcr- Per- Per- Pr- Pr- Per- P2r- Per-
cent cent cent cent cart cent c.nt cent cent cont cent cant

1923 : F1 84 83 7e 76 7C 83. 84 92 89
1924 : 80 94 73 74 76 91 82 84 89 91 90 95
1925 : 108 38 2 0 1 95 97 94 95 8C 91 91
1926 : 62 11 84 C4 f4 94 .Cj S3 86 86 58 91
1927 : 65 F? 74 78 75 66 71 74 38 83 33 85
1928 : 89 f3 82 85 b. c e 87 84 34 81 78 84
1929 : 77 -2 98 86 92 96 C 4 92 9] 89 87 91

1930 : C3 E5 77 83 76 71 67 67 71 66 63 59
1931 : 60 47 69 70 58 62 61 '3 62 65 63 64
1932 : 55 50 49 51 53 54 56 63 63 73 73 80
1933 79 4 53 56 64 57 6:5 56 56 63 63 59
1934 : 60 03 66 65 64 63 62 67 7? 66 72 70
1935 : 81 97 E2 0o 96 96 92 87 88 82 73 78
1936 : 79 95 80 80 37 91 95 85 79 78 81 81
1937 : 77 76 84 86 78 77 76 74 72 71 70 70
1938 : 75 64 71 71 80 84 83 81 82 79 75 SO
1939 : 69 66 73 71 71 70 69 68 67 66 66 58

1940 : 68 85 68 67 69 56 67 66 68 69 68 77
1941 : 75 69 72 87 89 134 100 95


PES-57






SEPTEMBER 1941


Fenis and pullet;: on farms, rate of lay, eggs produced, sales of eggs,
average price received by farmers and cash farm
income frcr. g.gs 1l10-40

Da__ sta for neg* 39621 and 39539)
: Average : : : Lvora o :
: hens and : number cf : Eggs : Quantity : price per : Cash
: pullets : eggs pro- : produced : of eggs : doz'n re- : Irm


Year : on farrs : ducek
: Jan. I : hon
__ : : pull

: Millions NumtI


319
M42
329
327
328
34 0
731

326
351

341
332
554
372
590
391
394
415
427
4C4

420
402
386
391
385
350
S61
577
350
571


86
06
56
85
P8
87
36
86
67

87
23
C3
F94
90

.95

1
94

93
96
94
91
89
95
94
100i
106
103

101


on
farms


Million
dozen

2,250
2,45')
2,358
2,342
2, 25
2,492
2,400
2,303
2,733
2,542

2,475
2,567
2,75)
2,i17
2,C 3
2,C14
3,104
3,219
3,222
3,160

3..,256
3,211
3,025
2,960
2,869
2,775
2,833
3,137
3,083
3,136

3,240


sold by
farmer s


Mi llion
dozen

1,582
1,736
1,C7
1,653
1,637
1,756
1,C983


Is
1.646
1,663


1,79t


2,129
L,194






2,551
2,469
2,235
2,228
2,171
2,098
2,136
2,408
2,330
2,431

2,504


: ceived by : IPOc
: farmers : ro
: for egg,s : egs
million
Cents dollars


20.9
17.5
2C.2
15.4
20.5
19.4
22.1
31.8
36,0
41.3

43.5
22.3
25.0
2C.5
26.7
2G.4

25.1
22.1
20.8

23.7
17.6
14.2
13.8
17.1
23.4
21.8
21.3
20.3
17,4

18.0


331
304
339
321
336
341
375
E23
599
762

781
523
506
583
585
682
695
626
709
740

606
434
224
309
370
491
466
513
473
423


Agricultural marketing Service data.


1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1916
1919

1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929


1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

1940
1941


- 24 -






PES-57


- 25 -


Prices received by farmers for chickens and eggs, cost of poultry
ratio. ard nonpgr< cultural labor income 1910-41

(Data for neg. 39E39 and 32541)
: Average :
: price re-: Average price pr : Average cost of a : icon-
ceived by: pound received byotr agricultural
farmer for r labor
: foarmerg chickens : pr 1(0 pounds 1/ : nco
Year : for eggs : : :
: Index : : Index : : ndex : Index
: numbers : Pr : numbers Cost numbers : umber
: (1910-14 : :(l10-1 (1910-14 : (1910-14
: 10 = 100) : -: = lO ) : : 100) : = 10...
SCents Dollars

1910 : 106 11.8 101 1.29 .99 35,4
1911 89 10.9 93 1.,22 94 35.3
1912 103 11.0 94 1.38 106 39.3
1913 98 12,3 10 1.23 94 41,1
1914 : 104 12.6 103 1.40 107 40.5
1915 98 11.8 101 1.44 110 42.3
1916 : 112 13.5 115 1.53 117 49.1
1917 : 161 13.9 144 2.67 205 56,1
1918 : 3 21.7 185 2.89 222 70.4
1919 : 210 24.6 210 2.97 228 76.7

1920 : 221 26.3 224 2.93 225, 90.8
1921 : 144 20.9 178 1.20 98 74.0
1922 : 127 19.2 164 1,34 103 76.1
1923 135 19.1 16Z 1.c0 123 90.7
1924 136 19.4 160 1.72 132 9C.6
1925 : 154 20.5 175 1.33 148 94,2
1926 : 147 22.3 199 1.55 119 100.5
1927 : 127 20.3 171 1.67 128 101.5
1928 : 143 21.5 181 1.79 137 103,5
1929 151 22,8 192 1.72 132 109,7

1930 120 13.4 153 1.50 115 99.7
1931 89 15.8 135 .98 75 84.3
1932 72 11.8 109 ,64 49 06.0
1933 : 70 9.5 82 .31 62 62.1
1934 : 87 11,3 9G 1.23 94 72,0
1935 : 119 1A.9 127 1,44 111 76.1
1936 : 111 15,8 13b 1.46 112 886.9
1937 : 108 13.9 143 1.74 134 07.5
1938 : 103 15.0 133 1,02 79 92.1
1939 : 88 13.5 115 1.04 80 98,7

1940 91 13.3 114 1,19 91 106.5
1941


Contirnu3d -






SEJTEI'BSP 1941 26 -

Prices received by farmers for chickens and og.gs, cost of poultry
ration erd ronpgriou]tural labor incoiT 1910-41 -Continued

Nonagricultural labor income based on data front Devartent of Commerce and
National Burear. of Economic Research. All other basic data from Agricultural
Marketing Service.

Y/ Ration consists of corn 62 pounds, w.4heat 14 pounds, oats 8 pounds, barlsy
2 pounds, bran 9 pounds, and tankage 5 pounds, Monthly cost based on United
States average midmonth prices received for corn, wheat, oats, and barley
and midmonth prices paid for bran and tarkags. Annual figures are simple aver-
ages ef monthly data. Although this ration may not be used as such anywhere
in the United States, the constituents comrose a very larze percentage of all
rations and therefore the price changes are significant. Rations used in
present-day poultry feeding operations are flexible and include many addi-
tional ingredients.









HENS AND PULLETS ON FARMS JANUARY 1. EGGS PER LAYER. AND
TOTAL EGG PRODUCTION ON FARMS. UNITED STATES. 1910-41


HENS AND
PULLETS
(MILLIONS )
420


400


380


360


340


320


300
EGGS
PRODUCED
DOZENS
(BILLIONS )


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940
DATA FROM A. M. S. *AVERAGE NUMBER OF EGGS PRODUCED ANNUALLY PER LAYER


EGGS PER
LAYER*
(NUMBER)
110


105


100


95


90


85


80
EGGS
PRODUCED
DOZENS
(BILLIONS)



3.0


2.7


24


2.1


A ESTIMATE


U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 39521 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 3.- THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF EGGS PRODUCED ANNUALLY
PER HEN IN RECENT YEARS HAS BEEN ABOUT 10 PERCENT LARGER THAN
IN THE LATE 1920's. AS A RESULT, RELATIVELY FEWER HENS ARE
SUPPLYING THE NATION'S EGGS. EGG PRODUCTION IN 1942 WILL BE
THE LARGEST ON RECORD BUT THE NUMBER OF HENS WILL BE BELOW THE
1927-30 AVERAGE.




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

1262lllll 004llllll 05llll 7057lll ll
3 1262 08904 0579


FEED-EGG RATIO AT CHICAGO. 1927-41
I DEVIATIONS FROM 10-YEAR AVERAGE)


DOZENS

4


3


2




AVERAGE
1929-58

-1


-2


-3


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


FIGURE 4


NEG. 32471 UIEfAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR CHICKENS AND FOR EGGS.
AND COST OF POULTRY RATION. UNITED STATES. 1910-41
INDEX NUMBERS I 1910 141001
PERCENT

220 Poultry
ration *



180 o-



140 .



100 -



60 7 Eggs


aB45ED ON PRICES OF CORN OATS BARLEY. WHEAT BRAN. AND TANKAGE
BASED C,' DATA FROM A M S DATA FOR 1941 ARE ESTIMATED


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTUREC


NECG 39541 BUREU or AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 5

DURING THE WORLDD JAR FEED COSTS ADVANCED MUCH MORE rAPIDLY THAN CHICKEN AND EGG
PRICES. IN THE PAST tEAR, OSEVESER, THE ADVANCE IN PRICES OF POULTRY PRODUCTS HAS *
KEPT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCES IN FEED COSTS. ALTHOUGH FEED PRICES DURING THE 1941-42
CROP YEAR PROBABLY, WILL BE MAINTAINED AT OR ABOVE THE SEPTEMBER 1941 LEVELS, THE
FEED-EGG RATIO FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHDLE 15 EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRO-
DUCERS TANm Tn 10-YEAP AVERAGE FEED-EGG RATIO.