Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
April 1941
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00059

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text
-S


TH E


THEQ0%0J IT U AT ION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-52 A APRIL 1941



CHICKS HATCHED BY COMMERCIAL HATCHERIES.
UNITED STATES. 1939-41
MILLIONS I



200 -194 --

F- 1939

150 -/ -- 1



100 ---- ---1

S1940






JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV DEC.
A.M.S. DATA DATA FOR 1941 ARE PRELIMINARY


U. I DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 39093 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


ALTHOUGH ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL ANNUAL OUTPUT OF COMMERCIALLY
HATCHED BABY CHICKS IS PRODUCED IN THE 3 MONTHS, MARCH-MAY, THE PROPORTION
OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CHICKS HATCHED ANNUALLY IN THE UNITED STATES IN THESE
MONTHS IS MUCH LARGER SINCE MOST OF THE FARM-IIATCHED CHICKS ARE PRODUCED DUR-
ING THIS PERIOD. THE PROPORTION OF CHICKS HATCHED ON FARMS HAS BEEN DECLIN-
ING FOR MANY YEARS BUT IN 1940 IT WAS STILL ABOUT 28 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL
NUMBER OF CHICKENS RAISED ON FARMS.
COMMERCIAL HATCHERY PRODUCTION REACHES AN ANNUAL PEAK IN APRIL IN ALL
AREAS OF THE COUNTRY BUT THE SEASONAL VARIATION IN MONTHLY OUTPUT VARIES CON-
SIDERABLY BETWEEN GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE LARGELY A RESULT
OF THE STRONG FALL AND WINTER DEMAND FOR CHICKS FOR COMMERCIAL BROILER PRO-
DUCTION IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.









THE EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE.


EGGS
I DOZENS I

8



7



6



5



4
CASES
I MILLIONS I


8



6



4



2


0
CENTS PER
DOZEN
30



25



20




15


JAN. APR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A M 5 DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME INDEX NUMBERS. ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
,FIRST OF THE MONTH EXCLUDING S. M. A. HOLDINGS. BEGINNING APRIL 1.1940


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NE&G 38961 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


CASES
I MILLIONS I


12



9



6



3


0
NUMBER
i MILLIONS )

325



300



275


250



225




PSS-52 3 -

TH E PO ULTR Y AilD E S I T U A T I C II


.,ujniary

Efforts are now being made by the Departnent of Agriculture to stimu-

late the production of egis aijd chickens ov.r a period ending June 30, 1943.

The increase in production is being encouraged to provide for export require-

ments under the provisions of the lend-lease program while maintaining about

normal levels cf per ca-ita consumnntion ir, the United States.

The expansion will be stimulated primarily by supporting egg prices.

By purchasing e9gs in the open marKr.t the Goverrnment -will support eg'g- prices

at a level such that the Chicago wholesale price f.-_r the period fro.r now

until June 30, 1943 will average about 22 cents per dozen. In determining

the approximate monthly prices consideration will be 'iven to normal seasonal

variation, differentials as to -ra.de and shipping distances 'when purchases

are made at country points, and tc relative prices of feed.

In addition to the user in the lend-lease program, supplies of eggs

acquired through Deoartment purchases will be available for direct distribu-

tion in this country through State relief agencies to needy families and for

free school lunches; for release on the in'rket in case of unwarranted

speculative price increases; and to meet requests froua the Red Cros: for

shipment to war refugee ar'as.

With recent advances in egg n-rices, the feej-egg ratio has become

much more favorable thin a year earlier. As P result the increase in the

number of chickens raised on farms in 1941 over 1Q40 probably will be 10

percent cr more. In addition a further expansion in the production of com-

mercial broilers is in prospect; such production in the first 3 months of

this year anpears to have been the largest on record fcir the period. Supplies

of chicken meat for the last half of 1941, therefore, are expected to be

larger than a year earlier. However, chicken prices during the remainder







A.?IL. 191 a -

cf t.his r :: ar-: -rxxctej tc 'e :..-r than a ye'r" arli -r and high-er than

the 1C3'-3? aver"r .- '..- -. *-." -. cf h" i-.cr.A=. ir. consumer incomes.

7- L to c-: --.: i Z'. .r:. ?=.r cricxs frc.m -.i -M:rch to early

*-.il i rttri-c'ut : -=:r :3 .l.-r c-i-t s .t rir.ci.l .1 -'arkies than a

year e. -rli-r .. -. --- .. ..- s .n.. 9-? cr.s'_ner .Tand. eg c pri 'ss during

th-- r-m-air.er -..-- 'xbcted : abcve the-. cf a .--"ar elirlier, pri-

,-;-. .c.. c" the l'arg--_ ccr. sI -:- ir.coca t'i r t3hn l.st -And the

:icv. cf thi -:v:- rent tr surp.prt -4 -rices by dirc..t purchase inn a effort

to incre'.s fourth r zh: nupTb-r of chic.--ns.o r!.is, i cn farr.-..

"'ith ? ccnt inu-d f.vcrbIe fr--c. g ratio, .it'h th-i Government en-

courirair.. betrl-r f di.-., an rnarticl arl- wih relFt ively low; prices fcr high

prcteLn f-s, the ratc cf i- r3r '-r. rn r-cbbi, ill cor.ti ell above

:vera z-. Thus t :t. et z rr.':cti::. durin the r.ext few months may continue

larer thz n --rir P a rv:.' thc.cz? 1 he nuamb:r cf layers now on farrns is

slimh'ly s lllr ti?_n a year ?.:c. CorntiLnued highLr .:gg prices also will tend

-G re.d'ce the r-.te cf declinp- in numbers of layers ca farms from now until

Aisz.. The nur:-ber of lavy-rs on f-rzs byr the _-nd of this year m-ay be con-

siera-bly lar:g.r thar. a yve'r _rliir s-ince in the nast .-ch 5--ercent increase

in the number of chicke-ns rais.c .n frns 'r has been. follow.-ed by an increase of

2 to 3 percent in th'- nluer of la-:;-- on f-'rns h~ follorwi. January.

Su- .lies of turkey -vme.t for 10 -- -7 be abr. :t th same'_ as in 1940,

since with norm-al v-we.ther ccnditirns th'. death lose nay be enough less this

year than last tc offset the 3 percent fewer Doults farmers indicated they

would start in 19L1 compared to 1lO. Because of thu lcrg.:r ccnsuamr incomes

this year, prices r-eceived by farmers for turkeys -re expected to average

hia-her th.n in 19-10.


- April 21, 1941







- 5 -


FEED SITUATION

Feed-ega ratiD nore favorable

Feed gr-din prices are being influenced primarily by the continued im-
provement in business activity a.nd the recently announced Governm.ent purchasing
programs affecting livestock proJucts. Although this przpram will t nd to in-
cruase corn consumption so:;cwhet during the remainder of this corn marketing
year the full effects will not be reflected ur.til hog numbers are increased
late this year and in early 1942. The indicated coabirned acreage of feed
grains planted this year will be slightly smaller than in 1940 but with an
average growing season and an incre-sed average yield of corn (because of ex-
panded use of hybrids) total production of feed grains this season would be
only about 4 percent less than in 1940. This year's production will be sup-
plement..d by large carry-overs, however, and with an average growing season,
total supplies may again be at a near record level. Supplies of high protein
feeds may be slightly smaller in 19.1-L2 than the record large supplies in
1940-U1. The Commodity Cr,-dit Corporation will continue its policy of re-
leasing corn to farmers at approximately the loan rate plus carrying charges.

The price c-f corn at Chic-o. advanced about 6 conts per bushel during
the past month while prices of oats "'nd b-rley advanced slightly. Prices of
high protein feeds and other byproduct feeds changTd little from mid-M rch
to mid-A-ril.

The cost of poultry feed, based on v;holesnle prices at Chicago, advanced
about 10 c.'nts per i00 pounds from mid-Larch to mid-April but the cff-ct of
this on the feed-egg ratio was much more than offset by the 4 to 5 cent in-
crease in egg pric s. About 1 dozen fewer egFs were required to buy 100 pounds
of fted in mid-Arril than a month earlierr; usually this number increases from
March to April. The feed-egg ratio in Arril w-s more favorable to producers

Fe*'d-eg7 ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)

Seck ;nding as of 1941
Year Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : ay: June:'eot.:Dec.
: 22 : 15 : 22 : 29 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 3 : 26 : 27 : 27
Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.

Average:
1930-39 6.06 6.30 6.40 6.60 6.69 6.77 6.71 6.71 6.70 6.86 5.65 4.83

1939 : 6.21 6.05 6.28 6.75 6.39 6.55 6.69 6.65 6.84 6.71 6.39 6.62
1940 : 6.23 7.37 7.51 7.59 7.49 7.84 8.28 8.21 8.05 7.57 6.02 5.52
1941 : 7.43 7.26 6.82 6.57 6.06 6.Ob


than the 10-yetr average and much moru favorable than in April 1940. This
ratio is expected to continue more favorable than a year earlier during the
next few months.


PES-52






APRIL 1941


HATCHINGS

Baby chick production continuing
at a high level

Output of chicks by commercial hatcheries in the first 3 months of
this year slightly exceeded the previous record output for those months in
1939. Although the number of eggs set in March appears to have been re-
stricted somewhat by the relatively low egg prices in late February and in
early March, the recent much higher prices are expected to encourage con-
tinued increases over a year earlier. Such increases, however, probably will
be reflected particularly in a much larger than usual late hatch since most
hatcheries normally operate at near-capacity in April and in early May.

Efforts by the Department of Agriculture to expand poultry production
are to be directed primarily at increasing the rate of lay and utilizing
present unused housing capacity. It is emphasized that expansion in permanent
housing facilities should not be made. Demand for eggs for export may last
for a few years and continued further increases in the average rate of lay
would tend to reduce the number of layers required to supply future domestic
requirements.

Because of the much higher egg prices now than a year ago and the en-
couragement of the Government to increase the production of poultry products,
the number of chickens raised on farms this year may exceed the 10 percent
increase indicated in last month's report. Any such additional increase would
tend to increase supplies of farm-raised young chickens, which compete with
commercial broilers during the summer months. For 1941 as a whole, however,
commercial broiler production will be much larger than in 1940 and probably
the largest on record.

Total chicks hatched by months now
being estimated

The chart on the cover pag- of this report is based on data published
by the Agricultural Marketing Servicv.. Data of monthly chick production by
commercial hatcheries in 1938, 1939 and 1940, have been published in a special
release by the Agricultural Marketing Service entitled "Commercial Hatchery
Production, 1938-40". Such data for 1941 have been published in the monthly
hatchry reports. The total and percentage monthly distribution of chicks
hatched is given in the following tables.

tiumber of chicks produced by commercial hatcheries,
by months, 1938 to date


Year Jan. :Feb. I.'arch: Apr.: May :June :July : Aug. :Sept.: Oct. Nov. DecTotal
:il. Mil. M. Mil. Mil. Mil. MIi. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.

1938 : 29.6 70.2 159.2 212.9 171.7 60.1 17.1 9.9 11.5 12.5 13.0 14.6 781.7
1939 : 40.3 84.5 182.4 238.9 197.4 70.1 18.5 13.3 14.2 13.8 13,0 13.9 900.3
1940 : 30.0 52.9 164.1 233.5 177.2 77.0 21.4 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.2 15.8 825.9
1941 : 43.2 [S.2


- 6 -






Chicks produced by commercial hatcharias, percentage each month
is of annual totvl, 1936-40

Yar Jan.rc Ap "June July Aug. Sept. Oct. NIov.'Dec.Total


1938 : 3.2 9.0 20.4 27.2 21.8 7.7 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 100
1939 : 4.5 9.4 20.3 26.5 21.9 7.8 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 100
1940 : 3.7 6.4 19.9 2R.4 21.5 9.3 2.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 100


The increase in specialized brbiler production in many areas adjacent to
large cities and particularly in Zastera Scaboard States is partially re-
placing "western" farm-raised young chickens in eastern markets. The pub-
lishing of monthly data of commercial hatchery production will help to keep
the poultry industry informed of an,' such shifts in production. Moreover,
these monthly data will help sreccialized broiler producers to adjust their
output to market requirements. Such assistance is especially desirable be-
cause of the short-time nature of production operations. The total output
of broilers may be varied tremendously within a few weeks.

EGG SITUATIOHT

Rate of lay continuing abovc a
year earlier

The rate of lay per hen to date this year nas averaged 11 percent
higher than. a year earlier, and total egg production in the first quarter of
1941 was 8 percent larger than in the corresponding period cf 1940. A higher
average rate of lay this year, compared to early 140, has more than offset
the smaller number of layers on farms.

The general situation now is considerably different from that of a year
ago. The rute of lay was not curtailed this past winter, as it was a year
earlier, and prices of feeds, csoccic.lly the high protein types, have been
lower. Egg prices at terminal markets in _-.:rly April *were 4 to 5 cents higher
than both a month carlirr and a year earlier. A continuation of the present
favorable feed-egg ratio will tend to cause a continued high ratc of lay. ItI
addition it will tend to retard the rate at which farmers liquidate their
flocks in late summer and early fall. This is in line with the Department's
program to expand egg production during the next few months. After the fall
season the larger number of pullets that will result from the larger number of
chicks raised on farms this year than last probably will supply a sufficient
quantity of eggs to fill requirements.

Number of layers on farms, United States


Year Jun. Feb.:March:April' May ,June :July Aug.:Sept.: Oct. Nov. : Dec.
T il. i. MIil. ? I i. :il. :!lil. 1 7'- EI. T I. Mil. M3l. UEi iET.
Average:
1930-39: 332 325 315 301 284 267 253 246 256 278 300 322

1938 : 307 301 292 278 262 248 236 234 245 269 293 314
1939 322 316 306. 292 276 260 246 242 253 279 305 326
1940 : 352 327 318 304 289 270 252 247 257 279 303 320
1941 : 324 318 308


PES-52


- 7 -






APRIL 1941


-8 -


Average number of eggs produced por layer, United States

Year :Jan. : Feb.:March:April' "lay June 'July :Aug. :Sept.: Oct. Nov. : Doc.


: No. No. Dio. !Io. No.
Average:
1930-39: 0.6 8.9 14.3 16,7 16.3


: 7.9
: 8.0
: 7.2
: 8.7


9.9 15.4
9.7 14.9
9.0 14.4
10.3 15.0


17.5
17.0
16.5


17.3
17.0
17.0


Ho. No. llo. No. No. No. No.


14.2 12.7 11.2


14.9
14.6
14.8


13.6
13.2
13.4


11. '
11.7
11.8


8.9 6.8 5.0 5.2

9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
9.3 7.4 6.0 6.8
9.7 7.9 6.2 6.8


Total farmT production of eggs, United States


Year Jan.: Fcb. :Marchl April, UIJ.y June .July : Aug..Sept.. Oct..
: Iil 1.11. i'11. ::il. 1il. :.!il. 'lil 1il. .1111. Ilil.
:cases rcusfs cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average:
1930-39: 6.0 .0 12.5 13.9 13.2 10.5 8.9 7.6 G.4 5.2


:6.7
: 7.2
: 6.7
: 7.9


12.5
12.6
12.7
12.8


13.5
13.8
14.0


12.6
13.0
15.7


10.3
10.6
11.1


Nov.
Mil.
cases


Dec.
MAil.


4.1 4.7


8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5.5
9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
9.4 8.1 7.0 6.1 5.2 6.0


Into-storage movement for eggs smaller
this year than last

The net into-storage move-merit for shell eggs beg-an at about the usual
time this year but has been smaller than a year earlier. This probably is
partly the result of the recent 4 to 5 cent advance in ogg prices and partly
of the long-time tendonc, to store fewer shell eggs. The increased production
of eggs in the fall and winter months and the increased volume of eggs, frozen
or dried, together have reduced somewhat the quantity of shell eggs stored an-
nually. With continued efforts by the Extension Service and other interested
agencies iGovernment and private) to increase efficiency and with the pro-
spective larger number of pullets from this year's hatch, total egg production
in the coming fall and winter may be the largest on record. Thus, fewer
storage eggs probably will be needed.

The into-storage movement for frozen eggs also slowed up somewhat in re-
cent weeks but is progressing at about the same rtte as in 1939. Stocks of
frozen eggs on April 1 were 43 percent larger than a year earlier, and
privately owned stocks of' shell eggs were 34 percent larger than on April 1,
1940. The Surplus I.arketing Administration on April 1 owned 25,000 cases,
which was 2.3 percent of total shell eggs in storage.


1938
1939
1940
1941


1938
1939
1940
1941







FES-52


Eggs: Storage stocks in the Un.ited States, and storage movement
at 2'j markets

: United States :_Ir.to-stcra-e movement, peek endir.- as of 19 1
Year : stocks : Lir. : Apr. :_ May
: Mar. 1 : Apr. 1 : 29 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 2e : 3
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,, iO 1, iCO 1,000 1, C00 1,000
Shell : cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average :
1970-39 : 182 1,400 275 341 396 455 h92 495

1939 : 15 1,105 215 266 360 419 412 429
19460 : 81 / 796 154 253 333 395 i4o0 491

1941 : PI 291 1,066 138 10 241
Frozen :
Avera-ge
1930-39 : 1,458 1,646 ---

1939 : 1,271 1,728 92 93 110 102 109 91
1940 : 1,05g 1,263 42 91 95 97 147 135
1941 : 1,292 V21,0l2 99 94 94

I/ Excludes Suirplus Marketing Administration holdings as follows:
April 1, 1940, 59,000 cases; March 1, 1941, 16,000 cases; April 1, 1941,
25,000 cases.
2/ Preliminary.

gg prices level off in early Anril

Wholesale prices for eggs increased 4 to 5 cents from mid-Uarch to
early April a3d in recent weeks have fieldd about steady. This rise is due
partly to smaller receipts at principal markets than a year earlier and
partly to the stronger consumer demand. Egg prices during the remainder of
1941 are e-oected to be well above those of a ycar earlier, because of the
larger consumer incomes this year than last and the policy of the Government
to support egg prices by direct purchase in order to increase further the
number of chickens raised. on farms. Wholesale prices at Chic.,-:o are to be
used as the brsis for the price-supporting policy. The -,rice of eggs will be
supported -t a. long-term average of about 22 cents per dozen, Ci ago basis.
In dete---iiiin,; monthly prices, consideration will be given to nornal- seasonal
variation, to differentials as to grade and shipping distances rhen eggs are
purchased at country points, and to relative prices of feed.

The average price received by farmers for eggs in mid-March was 1 cent
higher than a .year earlier and only about a half-cent lower than the mid-
February price. The 10-year average decline in eg' prices from mid-February
to mid-March is about 2.5 cents. The smaller-than-usual decline from mid-
February to rmid-March. this year probably is partly a result of the tendency
over a period of years for the seasonal variations in eg, prices to be reduced.


- C -
I^







APRIL 1941 10 -

Price per dozen received ly farmers for eggs, United States


Year .Jan. .Fel. M.ar. : A-r.. May :June :July : A ug..:Se-t..Oct. .Nov. .Dec.
:Cent3 Cert s Cents Ce.nts Cents Cents s Cent Cents Cents Ce'nts Cents Cents
Avera e:
1930-39: 22.S 1.8S 16.1 1S.O 15.9 15.7 17.0 18.7 21.9 24.7 25.2 26.3

193i : 21.4 16.4 16.2 15.0 17. 10.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 2Q9.0 27.9
1939 : 19.3 Ir.7 1.0 15.5 1.2 IL.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
1940 : 18.5 2C.2 1p.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 27.7 25.2 26.3
19a- : 1.7 16.3 16.4



POULTRY SITUAT ION

Farm r.rkx!tir.g of roultry continue
srialler .i'hn a year earli_1'l

Recei-ts of live poultr:-, s-ncially fowls, at Centre.l westernn primary
markets are continuing sualppr than in ti}c corresnondiing nerioi a year earlier.
This reflects in .art the smal..-r ruoabEr of poultry on f-a -s thi ,'-ear than
last, Pn. in trrt the hi ter eWg: n-'ices cor-arAd to those in 1 140, a situation
which tends fo restrict the nunbcr of foils removed from I-i'.;n flocks. The
nu'ter of lp;.-prs 3-r farm floc:_ declined less thl-.n sersmo-lly f-ni less than a
year earlier fror L'erch 1 to A-ril 1 this :'ear. Although the -ros-ective
higher c-;g prices :or the nert several months, corrmared to a -"oa earlier,
will ten!r to cause farmers to rost'one selling t .eir yearling a.ns, total farm
marketin;s are ezmected to avera.-e higher tian a --ea-r earlier because of the
larger number of chickens to b? r-isd on fanrms in 191-l than in 1940.

Receipts of dressed poultry eat -rincipal markets in recant wecks have
avera-ed abo-t the same as a year earlier. This reflects the lar;:er out-of-
strs;e (and int er-market) moveLent of frozen poultry since farm auarketings of
live poultry aprarer.tly are s.all-cr than a year earlier.

Receipts of dressed poultry at four markcts

fl_ ew York, Chi :-7o, Philadelphia, Boston)
: e-k Te ndi-.p :-s of 19l41
Year : Feb. i: I-. :_ .r. :J~rne : Aug.
: 22 : 15_ _: : 20 : 12 : 19 : 2 : 28 : 30
:!,C0O 1,0:C 1,OOC 1'CO 1,C00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,00C 1,000
: -ouinds ouonds ou-nds wol.rds nournds pounds pounds pounAs ounors pounds
Average:
1930-39: h,024 3,953 3,425 3,6-G 3,536 3,533 3,493 3,793 5,42S 5,30S

1939 3,555 3,937 4,305 3,838 3,730 3,19o0 3,759 3,6o4 6,139 6,081
1940 : 5,150 5,7147 4,713 4,395 .,o44 4,851 4,139 4,323 6,653 7,547
19'41 : L,46 W,Lc4 3,18 4,620 L,709 4,9sg










THE POULTRY SITUATION AT A GLANCE


POLINDS F S
IMILLIONSi RECEIPTS OF POULTRY I
40 AT FOUR MARKETS



30 1940o4

|1


0 .Laj,
CHICKENS
POUNDS i I
10




9




8 -



CENTS PER
POUND FA



15




13




11
JAN.
A M S DATA


APR. JULY OCT.
A FIRST OF THE MONTH


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


POUNDS
I MILLIONS
60




40




20




0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS 1
60




40




20




0
POIJ N DS
i MILLIONS i
60




40




20


U S. STOCKS OF
\ C CHICKENS____
1941 I
K Average
S' 1930-39













U S.STOCKS OF FOWL-


I III I


S-- 1940 -,


94 I930-39








U S. SU S STOCKS OF
i ^ ^ AveraeI ,ft L T


I uR EI .T" ___Y


1 ^1940 1


JAN APR. JULY OCT.
* INCLUDES BROILERS FRYERS AND ROASTERS

NEG 389t 2 BUREAU OF AGRICuLTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2




APRTL 1941 12 -

Stora;e stocks of poultir declining
more than seasonally

United States stocks of fowls end cf turkeys both declinr.d more than
usual during March while h.)ldinc.s of ;.ort other clr'sses were reduced about
the usual amount. The d:crazco in total stocks of poultry from March 1 to
April 1 this year was 22 percent corr red with a 20-pcrcent decrease a year
earlier and the 10-year avernpe '-ecrea.se of 21 percent. The lerxer net total
withdrnw].s in March this year comirel! to a year earlier reflect smaller
farm c2rketir;.s of live roultr. and continued heavy consumption of poultry
meat.

Tot?.l stocks of poultry on April 1 were about 10 percent !arcer than a
year ?ar' -r, whereas on March 1 thev were 13 percent larger. Stocks of fowls
on Ap:il 1 were 2-9 percent larger than a year earlier, stocks of roasters were
46 recent lrger, and stocks -f frye-rs were 68 percent la-~rer. Stocks of
broilers m-r, tu-'ke'ys were each about 13 percent smaller than on April 1, 1940.

Poultry: Stor.-ge stocks in the United States ane. storage
rov-:er.t -.t 26 markets

Unite'. States : C'.it-of-sctrae novement. e erk ern'in as of 1941
Year : stock's : r. r. :.A MHay
: I.er. 1 : Anr. 1 : 29 : : 12 : 19 : 2b : 3
: ,0 1,CO 1,000 1, 1,000 1,0CO 1,000 1,OCO 1,000
: o'nr.ds pounds pounds pounds Tpoun ds po-Lunis pounds pounds
Average:
1930-39: 10, 23S S3,518 4,402 4,669 4,550 4,lg 3t,S3 2,833

lq39q : 1b,220 90,987 4,520 4,692 4,059 3,992 7,897 3,204
1940 : 1',75 115,442 4,594 5,158 4,915 5,455 6,143 4,722
1941 : 153,321 1/126,8S5 7,371 5,063 6,254

I./ Proliminary.

Chicken prices n rly 2 cents higher
than a y..egr earlier

The' a-:er--e rrice received ty farmers for chickens increased more than
the 10-yerr cver"5:e from mid-Febraary to mid-March and in the latter month was
nearly 2 r-ents hi n.er than a year earlier the highest for the nonth since
1938 and t'-? s?L-.e as the 1930-39 averrce for that dase. Chiic::kn prices are
expected 1.o continr-e well above those of a year earlier despite the prospective
l--percant or more increase in the n-nmbe-r of chickens raised this "eo ar compared
to last. This anp.:rrs likely '.riuarily because of the or.spective 15 percent
smaller suz.olies of pork, aid t:-.e nuch stronger consumer demand this year than
last.

The Departnent of Agriculture announcement of April 3, which outlined
the program for e-.ansion of the vhenr-lormal Granary Program to include a
program for increasing production of some foods, stated that the long term
(Chicago) price of chickens rould be supported at opnro::imately 15 cents per
pound. This probably will have little immediate effect, however, since chicken
prices at Chicago now are several cents above that level. In determining
monthly prices, consideration will be given to seasonal variation and also to
relative prices for feed.









Price -er pound received bI fsrmiers for chickens,
United States

: Jan.: Fet.: Mar.: AMr.: It-y : June: July: Aug.: S,'-t: 0: .: ov.: Dec.
r 15 : 15 : 15 15 l5 : 15' : 15 : 15 : 15 : 1, : 15 : 1I : 15
:Cnt, Cents Cents Cents Ce: ts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1930-39: 14.o 14.2 14.4 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.1 14.0 14.3 13.7 13.3 12.9

193 : 16.7 l'-.0 15.9 16.2 1'.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 13..9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.8 12.9 1 .6 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.7 1..3 13.1 13.0
1941 : 13.7 14.o 14.4



.DOMESTIC rImI-D

UnCer the stimulus of risi:ar eprloy-nment and consumer inco:.nes brought
about by the defense n'rogram, consumer demand for farm -ro'ducts "will continue
to imrro-'ve in the remainder of l942. Exports of'some a-ric.ultur:l -,roducts
also -.ill 1E- increased as a'result of rurchnsing for Eritish .r'ceds under the
provisions of the lend-lease program. Furtiier gains in wae p-'ynents are ex-
pected. to continue to outstrip those in living costs and fa-rmers will benefit
from the larger consumer purchacinFg -ower. However, increases in prices and
incomes received by farmers rs a result of these changes in de:ane'. conditions
will be partly offset by higher cots of production.

Further strength in commodity prices is likely in view of the general
economic outlook. But the factors contributing most to the recent shairp rise
in the general level of wholesale prices will not act as continuing stimaulants,
and the recent rate of increase is not expected to be maintained.

Index numbers of. nonagricultural income

(1924-29 = 100, adjusted for seasonal variation)
Year :Jan. 'Feb. :1ar. :Apr. -: tay' June: July: Aug.: Sent; Oct. 1Nov.: Dec.
Average: : ..
1930-39: S3.4: 03.1 53.4 02.9 ?2.14 3.6 S2.7 ,2.5 32.1 e?.3 92.3 82.7

1939 : qo.6 90.9 91.3 90.o0 9.8 92.1 91.8 93.3 93.3 95.0 95.9 97.1
1940 : 96.9 n6.2 95.9 95.3 96.4 97.4 97.8 99.1 99.9 1CO.3 101.7 104.1
41 5 105
1941 :1c4.5 105.0


I/ Preliminary.


PES-52


- 13 -







APRIL 19q1


- 14 -


I'rDX OF SPECIAL SU JECTS DISCUSSED IN THE
POULTRY AiD .GG SITUATION


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
I IIIIII 20Il 0llllllIlllllll
3 1262 08904 0512




Ii


Outlook for. tiur:e:s in 1 hl ......................

Dor-nward trend in costs of egg production ........

Unite. States foreign trade in poultry products
in 1qLO ............... .........................

Estimp.ted storage margin on shell ,- es per dozen,
avern.-'e 1916-35 2nd 1925-34, nnu.al 1975-40 ....

1915-37 ........................................

Geogranhic lnction of storage ?t3c!-s of eggs ....

Geograhic location of storage stocks of poultry .

Factors affecting th.e average )rice received by
farmers for turke,-s in the United States .......

Poultry and ecg outlook for 194! .................

Chick Hatchery Survey, 1937-38 ...................

A comparison of four feed-egg ratios .............

Change in official index of seasonal variation of
farm eg-; rices ........................ ........

Feed-e;g ratio defined ..........................


Pages

11

14


Issue

I.nrch 1941

March 1941


12 February 1941 '


8

9

6-8

8-11


13-16l



11-13

10-13


9

10-11


February

February

Decerbeer

November


1941

1, 1938


1940
194o0


October 1940

September 1940

August 1940

May 1, 1940


February 2,

December 4,


1940

1939


I