Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
January 1941
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00056

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text
~9 ~4. 96; 0


TH W

..-- -S IT U ACTION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
PES-49 3 JANUARY 1941


U. S. COLD STORAGE HOLDINGS OF POULTRY AND EGGS ON JANUARY 1
POUNDS
IMILLIONSSI


M suAMuA Ofma AMLIC&iLUWMIL ICOMIlCS


ILLMgNMIAIT lW MalCULTUA5









THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
EGGS I I I PERCENT I
(DOZENS) CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO 105 -NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME*
(1924-29=100)
8 -
S.1940- 100


95 1939


61941 90 r
A verge
5 1929-38
Average 85 -

4 ll 80 II I I I I
CENTS I I I CENTS I I
PER FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS PER FARM PRICE OF TURKEYS
POUND --POUND
18
Average Average .
1 929-338 17 __ 1934-38_
15
16 1939 _

15PRODUCTION -
13 -___
1940




I9Q-9 14 -- ----
11 L A 13 1
CASES CENTS I I I
(MILLIONS I PER FARM PRICE OF EGGS
PRODUCTION


25 Average
9 1929-38
19391-



;99
3 -Average |
Iqco-ARn 15 -


JAN. APR. JULY OCT
A.M.S. DATA. EXCEPT KOTAAGRICULTURAL INCOME
U. 5. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURi


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
INDEXX NIUEESRRADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
IfFPlsw BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I





PES-49


THE P U LTRY .N D EG G S IT ULIATI 0


Surrm ary

Farm mar!'.-t ings of poultry are expected to be ,,oderately s:..aller than

a year earlier during the next several months, but receipts at principal

markets may be little different from those in early 1Q1O since there again

will be heavy intermarket movements of storage poultry. Storage stoc':s of

poultry now are the largest on record. Despite the smaller hatch in 1940

than in 1939, receipts of dressed -.cultry at principal market s in the last

half of the yoar were larger than a year earlier. A major part. of these

larger receipts in the last half of 1940 ap;)Jear t. have been the result of

heavy marketing of foul and turkey's and substantial intermarket movements

of storage poultry, especially in the late summer and ea:ly fall months.

The average price received by farmers f.r chickens in mid-December

was about 1-1/4 cents higher than a year earlier and -nly about 1/2 cent be-

low the 10-year (1929-36) average price for that date. 'Tholesale prices for

chickens have advanced somev.what in recent w3e-ks, and chicken prices in gen-

eral are expected to average higher than a year earlier during the next sev-

eral months because of the smaller supplies and stroner consumLier demand.

For the first ti.e in nearly 2 years turkey prices are higher than a year

earlier and may continue higher than a year earlier throughout 1941.

Although the average rate of lay; per hen on January 1 was slightly

higher than a year earlier, total production was a little smaller because of

the fewer layers -n farms. This smaller production, compared to a year ear-

lier, was reflected in lighter receipts at principal markets and in a larger

out-of-storage r.iovem:ent for shell eggs than in early 1'40.. i..:re recently,


- 3 -






PES-49 4 -

however, receipts of eg-s have been larger than a year earlier, and the out-

of-stora.re moverient has been smaller. This is probably due to the fact that

the weather in recent weeks has been rild in contrast to the unusually cold

weather around j.iid-January last year.

-- January 21, 1941

FEED-EGG PATIO

Eg- prices at Chicago have declined considerably since early December
and feed prices have advanced a little at that market during recent weeks.
Consequently, the nur.iber of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ra-
tion, based on Chicago prices, increased more than usual for this ti,.e of
year. In early January the ratio was considerably above the 10-year aver-
age and little different from a year earlier. Although. the feed-e.gF ratio
may be considerably less favorable than a r,?ar earlier during the ne:t few
weeks, it is expected to average m:.- f --crable during, the months of heavi-
est production this year than last. ...a result, more chickens may be
raised. in 19L1 than were raised in 10'.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago
(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 ouin-.s of poultry ration)
: Wee!: en-Ling as of 191 __
Year : Jan. : Feb. :.iar. :June :Sept.:Hiov. : Dec.
: A : 11 : 12 : 25 : 1 : 8 : 29 : 28 : 27 : 29 : 20 : 27
Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. D oz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.
Average:
1930-39: .76 5.25 5.54 5.70 5.79 5.84 6.60 6.86 5.65 4.23 4.93 4.83
1939 : 5.02 6.12 6.13 6.65 6.52 6.07 6.35 6.71 6.39 5.68 6.62 6.62
1940 : 0.72 6.66 6.32 5.38 5.56 5.18 7.59 7.57 6.02 4.53 4.75 5.52
1941 : 5.74 6.37


EGG SITUATION
Egg production

The effects on the number of layers on farms of the smaller nua.iber of
chickens raised in 1940 have become more apparent. The number nf layers on
farms in December was 1 percent sr.aller than a year earlier and about 1 per-
cent s,.aller than the 10-year (1929-38) average number fer December. The
number of layers on farms on January 1, as indicated by the average number
of layers per flock on that date, was about 2 percent smaller than the num-
ber on January 1, 1940 but a little larger than the number for January 1,
1938. Because egg prices are expected to average higher than a year earlier
during the next several months and feed costs are expected to be about the
same as in the corresponding period last year, the decline in the number of
layers fiom norw until August is expected to be less than in 1940.





c


PES-40


The average rate of lay per hen during December about eoualed the
record hi-h rate of' Dece!.ber lQ3'. a.-nd wit1- slightly fe;.er laer.s on farms
than a year earlier total farm reduction of egs for the rcntl-: ;as about 2
percent sraller than in December 193'. Total fa ;:.rcducti.'n of Fe-C' in
1940 of aboi.t 1038 illiori cases was 2 percent lar-ger tiran the 1i?3, p- iuc-
tion; with the exception of the l0c.5 r -l.lion cases produced in 1C30, pro-
duction in .40 was the largest on record. The o.utnut of egw-7 in 1740, now-
ever, was produced with about 9 percent fewer la;-ers than were on farms ian
1930.


B-'ca' ie
eg-. p-od.ction
little smaller


of the slightly fewer 1si;ers on far-Is twi.s year than last,
thrcu-Th at least the first hali of 1-9l :-i exp acted tc be a
than during the corres-F.ndiLn: period of '1'O.


1.ILL- .er of layers cn far. s, United St.at -s


Year Jan.
: r;il.
Average :
1929-30 : 335.


Feb.' Mar. Apr. ia;' June:
Mil. 11 Jil. i :i_. L'..

-32 31C 3 0C 2 270
.2" -- -'1-


July' Auj. :SepT. Oct.: lov. Dec.
Lil. 1'~ i i.il. i-.il. s:il. Ik;ii.


2;j3 25' 2 5r 280


301 22 92 278 ::62 2.8 23 23 245 2 269 293 314
316 30o 292 276 2L 24.o 24 25. 279 305 326
327 313 304 239 270 252 2' 257 279 303 322


Average number of eggs proc'dcej ;er layer, United States


Year : Jan.
: o.
Average
1929-38 : 6.3

1938 : 7.9
1939 : 8.0
1940 : 7.2


Feb. .iar. ;Apr. h Lay "June 'July "Aug. "Sent.: ,ct.. : ov. Dec.
No. fN' nIc,. [Jo. '.-,. ic. Ho. :!0. o, o. o.

8.b 14.2 16.6 16.7 11..2 12.7 11.1 S.9 6.7 4.8 5.0


9.9 15.4
9.7 14.9
9.0 14.4-


17.5
17.0
16.5


17.3
17.0
17.0


14.9
14.6
14.8


13.6
13.2
13.4


11.8
11.7
11.8


7.5 5.9 6.4
7.4 6.0 6.8
7.9 6.2 6.8


Total farm production of eggs, United States

Year Jan. Feb. Lar. Apr. : 1ay :June :July: Aug. :Sept. : Oct. : lcyv. Dec.
: Lil. Ilil. Lil. Mil. iiil. Mil. i:il. ,Iil. iil. dil. Lil. MAil.
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average :
1929-38 : 5.9 7.9 12.5 14.1 13.3 10.6 9.0 7.7 6.4 5.2 4.0 4.0


8.3 12.5
8.5 12.6
2.2 12.7


13.5
13.6
14.0


12.6
1i.0
13.7


10.3
10.6
11.1


S.9
9.1
9.4


7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5.5
7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
8.1 7.0 6.2 5.2 6.0


1938
1939
1940


: 307
: 322
: 332


303 325


1938
1939
1940


: 6.7
: 7.2
: 6.7





PES-49


Egg storage

The smaller production of eggs in the closing weeks of 1940 compared
with a year earlier, to'e'Ther with -the stronger demand late last year, re-
sulted in a hearer out-oi'-st.'-age r movement for privately owned shell eggs
than in December 1939. Stor'-,e sLo.ks of _rivatsl y oned shill eggs on
January 1 -":re 4? ircent sms..lli thin on Ju'uue." 1 1P40. Storage stocks s of
frozen eggs on JLE-:'.ary 1 rvere slightly" larger tiPan on January 1, 1949 but the
out-of-storage move- rnt since that dEate has continued larger than a year
earl'ic-. Ihe Surplus Ia-ketinu AdrLiristrrtion owned 300,668 cases of shell
eggs on January 1, or about hrlf of t o shell eggs in storage in the United
States at thL. ti-l. Storage stocJ.-s of both shell and frozen eggs now are
nearing the s.aso: al Ice for the y6ar, sin-e in February or early March a net
into-storage j,.ovenent fcr eggs usually begins. Farm egg prices during the
into-stor .Ge season in 1UN0 were loier than a year earlier and since last
August, the icjcr out-cf-storage sea.:on, such prices have been higher than a
year e'irlier, The store se.ibon nau d':ai-ng to a close appears to have been
more favorabn3 for storage operators than the 1939-40 season. This should
result in a Ftronger stor' e Ade:-'nd this spring than prevailed during the
into-storage season in the spring and early summer of 1940.

Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States and
storage movement at 26 markets

: U-ited Staces : Ct-of-stc.-age mov?,ent, week ending as of 1941
st~ocl.s : u.c. :
Year : D-t. 1: i '/ : January Feb.
: : Jan. 1 :1 8 : .c : 11 : 18 : 25 : 1
: 1,C': 1,000 1,cC.J 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Shell : cares cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
average :
1930-39 : 2,506 836 228 213 131 92 66 53

1939 : 1,439 3C2 146 83 27 37 21 23
1940 : ],580 532 167 86 95 81 94 45
1941 :2/ 1,424 2/3/ 317 191 133 97

Frozen
average
1930-39 : 2,271 1,975 -- -- -- -- --

1939 2,231 1,797 49 51 51 44 20 45
1940 2,5C9 2,065 66 45 57 54 75 70
1941 : 2,608 3/ 2,079 67 62 77

I/ For preceding year.
/ Excludes Surplus Marketing Administration holdings as follows:
December 1940C, 545,000 cases; January 1941, 301,000 cases.
3/ Preliminary.

Egg prices

The average price received by farmers for eggs increased contra-
seasonally from mid-November to mid-December and in the latter month was more


- 6 -








thgn 6 cents higher than the record low price in December 1939. But the
December price still was about 2 cents below the 1929-38 average price for
December. Wholesale egg prices have declined considerably in recent weeks
apparently because of the greater than usual increase in market receipts.
However, because of the stronger consumer demand -nd the sr'aller supplies of
eggs in prospect for most of this year, compared to 1940, prices received by
farmers for eggs are expected to average higher this year than last.

With the excention of 1532, this is the first time since 1929 that the
average price received by farmers for eggs has increase between mid-Novenber
and mid-December. For several years preceding 1929 egg prices reached a sea-
sonal high in December rather than in Noverber. The increased rate of egg
production in the vinter months is responsible for the apparent change in the
seasonal pattern of egg prices since 1929. The annual variation ia egg
prices from seasonal low to seasonal high also has become considerably less
pronounced since 1929.

The higher price in December than in h;ovenber in 1940 was a result of
the combined effects of the expanding consumer incomrs and some decline in
production around December 1, as indicated by the rate of production on
December 1 and market receipts at that tine.

Price per dozen received by farmers for egrs, United States


Year Jan.: Feb. ?.:ar.. Apr.. 1.ay June LJuly : Aug. Sept. Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
:Cents Centa Cents Cents Cents Cents Ccrts Cnts Cents Cents Cerits Cents
Average:
1929-38: 24.2 20.3 17.3 16.8 16.8 16.8 18.1 19.9 23.2 26.2 30.1 20.8


1938 : 21.6 16.4 16.2
1939 : 18.8 16.7 16.0
1940 : 18.3 20.2 15.4


15.9 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
15.5 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2 26.8


POULTRY S SITUATION


Poultry marketing

Farm marketing of poultry are expected to be considerably smaller than
a year earlier during the next several month since the number of all poultry
now on farms is smaller than a year ago and the prospective higher egg prices
this year than last may cause farmers to cull less closely this spring than
they did in the spring of 1940. Receipts at principal markets, however, may
be little different from those in early 1940 since there again will be heavy
inter-market movements of storage poultry.

Receipts of? dressed poultry at the principal markets during the first
half of 1940 were 19 percent larger than a year earlier and in the last half
of the year vjerc 12 percent larger than in the last half of 1939. The large
inventory of live poultry on farms and the large storage stocks at the be-
ginning of 1940 largely explain the larger receipts during the first half of


PES-49


- 7 -






- 8 -


that year. Large storage stocks result in a heavy inter-market movement of
frozen poultry and therefore increased receipts at principal markets.

Reas-i- fcr the larger receTits during the last half of the year, how-
ever, are a-- s- -ar -'rt. Larger r-eceirts in the lart half of the -ear have
follred a cc-.-s :r-: a yTess ear,-i r in the sEze of hatch in only 2 other
years on record, --el~- 1-13 Sad 1---!, and either- of these increase; was as
large as t-he i:rease :- the I.t ha f of '40. t appears t-hat the larger
receipts i-n the last half of 19-C0 mere largely due to the he-avy meratings of
fowl a.d iur':e.-s aid a s-bstartial inat.-- ---rket movernet of storage poultry.
The into-rt-crae r-rr ..t of dressed f- --r the last half of 1940 is the
heaviest or r-cir. it.h .he sa eptian of -the unusually heavy novme t which
foll-ed t-.e r-;t inr L36 .eceiT-s cf turzys may have been larger in
the '-pcrtEr-. z_-eting : rts of 194c than in 19S9 since last year's turkey
crop 7as c a l1t.e s--aller than t.he 19- crop and in the early fall farm-
ers inricated th 7 itr-i.ed = arkst a ljarer prop-rtioa of their turkeys
before Jazz 1 t--n Th:L '- i in 1.32. 1he-. 2ov5emnt of storage turkeys from
the wrs-: co1st ar ar :-:-3er- atriz.z centers to eastern markets also nay
bhare helped : in-rease receirZs ari"- the late suanrr and early fall.

Receipts cf dressed poultry at four markets

(W-ew Yorc, Chizago, F iladelphia, Bostcn)

T e e S of -s e
:T : e 5 '5- D o e s- !
Year : Ja. -: : ::'r. :" ECy. : Dec.
____ : 4 : 11- : : : I : : .2 : 15 : 2C : 27
: ,0c": I,X 1,COC :,c CCC I,:LC' 1,'0 1,0CC l,OC 1,000 1,000
:p a .s ;pourds p-ouri-s -cuxirs rounds pconds pounds pounds pounds ponds
Average:
195~C : 5,740 5,321 5.C10 6,Ct9 5,764 3,6D5 25,187 13,766 25,458 9,947

1939 : 4,155 4,415 5,30 020 4,657 3,688 23,999 12,471 32,380 9,187
194 : E,572 6,C .7 7, 72 E,52 E,111 4,595 25,818 16,500 36,909 10,766
1941 : 5,.535 4,221


Toultry' storage

The met into-storage movenest far poultry during December exceeded that
far any month an record. The apparently strong stores dearnd caused poultry
prices to be naintained despite the fact that receipts of dressed poultry dmr-
ing the oneth also were the largest for any morth on record.

The larre rc-opertoan of holdings that are made up of fowl and turkeys
cortin es to da-ina-re the poultry storage situation. Stocks of fowl on
Jsanary 1 ere 4- percent larr thr. a year earlier and stocks of turkeys
wer= 15 percent lar.gr than these mo January 1, 1540. Storage stocks of all
poultry in -he United Stetes oa January 1 this year were 24 percent larger
than those of a year earlier.

The smaller supplies of freshly dressed poultry in prospect for the
next several months and the stronger consumer demand will be famorable






PES-49


factors in bringing about a substantial out-of-storage movement during com-
ing months.

Poultry: Storage stocks in the United States, and
storage movement at 26 markets


: United States
Year : stocks
:Dec. 1 1/: Jan. 1
: ,000 1,0CO
pounds pounds
Average:
1930-39 : 103,899 123,737


1939 : 118,088
1940 : 127,649
1941 : 159,110


139,108
167,643
2/208,234


: Storage movement, week ending as of 1941
: Dec. 1/: January : Feb.
28 : 4 : 11 : 1 : 25 : 1
1,C000 1,o00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds

+2,749 +3,2SG 538 -1,305 -1,264 -1,462


+2,044
+5,917
+8,955


+2,369
+3,490
+5,229


- 574
- 42P
-2,086


-2,002 -1,521 997
- 206 + 256 578


I/ For preceding year.
2/ Preliminary.

Chicken prices

The average price received by farmers for chickens declined less than
seasonally from mid-November to mid-December and in the latter month was about
1-1/4 cents higher than a year earli,,r and only about one-half cent below the
10-year (1929-38) average price for that month. In view of the unusually
heavy receipts during the closing months of 1940 it appears that the effects
on chicken prices of the stronger consumer demand have been fairly substan-
tial. This factor, together with the apparently strong storage demand, has
been largely responsible for the improve:..ent in cnic'en prices relative to
those of a year earlier.

Chicken prices are expected to continue higher than a year earlier dur-
ing most of this year because of the larger consumer incomes, smaller supplies
of pork, and prospective smaller supplies of chicken meat at least in the
first half of the year.

Price per pound received by farmers for chickens,
United States

Year : Jan.: Feb.: T ar.: Apr.: !.ay :June :July : Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 -
:Cents Cents C'ernt Cents Gents Ce::ts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1929-38: 14.8 15.C0 15.3 -15. -15.7 15.5 15.1 14.9 15.2 14.6 14.1 13.6


1938
1939
1940


: 16.7
: 14.0
: 12.0


16.0
14.2
12.2


15.9
14.3
12.8


16.2
14.4
12.9


16.1
13.9
13.6


15.7
13.4
13.3


15.0
13.7
13.6


14.2
13.0
13.4


14.3
13.6
13.7


12.6
12.7
13.3


13.6
12,4
13.1


13.6
11.7
13.0


- 9 -







PES-49


WIE .L LROIIUES

The larger number of chicks produced by commercial hatcheries in
Decemb-r compared to a ycir earlier indicates that th- hPavy production
of winter broilrre and fryers is continuing. The output of chicks by com-
mercial hitcheries in LDe:!=abr .Es 20 percent larger than a year earlier
for the co-untry as a whole but increases were more pronounced in the com-
mercial broilEr-pro"ucing areas. Chicken prices have been favorable for
this -nzansion .i2 the feed-chicken price ratio now is considerably more
favorable th-n 7 year ago.

T7--. LY3

The 3v-ra..e price received by fr.-.ers for turkeys again increased
from mid-N!over.brb tc mid-Lece:b r and in the latt r month was slightly
higher then a y5-ar earlier for th first time in nearly 2 years. The
,Lec-:mb-r price, however, ':as about 1-1/2 cents telo.' the 1934-38 overage
for that month. ".i.olesale prices f.-r turkeys did not Jecline as much
after the hravy rove.rent fo., the ChriFrtm-s r:arl:et -.s th-y did in the cor-
rcsponding period of 1933, and ..holes-Jle prices for live turkeys in early
January -were Z oi 4 cents htighEr than a year earlier. ;Jholesale prices
also were hi her th'an those ir=redi-st:ly after the Thanksgiving market,
whereas in 1939 th- r:-verse wvas true. These improved turkey prices probably
resulted largely fror, the strcnber c-nsarcer demand this year than last.

Although Fresent storage stL..ek of turkeys are the largest on record,
the total surpcl; of tuikey neat in t!.. .::iitcd -tates nay be no larger than
at this time last year, since the nt- bF-r of turkeys still on f'-rs probably
is sasller than z ;ear a.o. The exc-ss of thlis ye.r's rr-ices received by
farmers for tur.Leys ov-r ttLose of a y ar earlier is e.r--cted to :iden dur-
ing coming nor.ths C,'cat-se of the IL.rg.r conzu--r incomes in prospect, smal-
ler surlies ctf chicken, and the smaller supplies of pork .ahi:h .Jill result
from the decline in hog marketings.

Fri.e per pound received by frz-ers for live turkeys, United States


: .an.: re..: Kar.: rr.: Ly : Jane: Ju-ly: ;.uA .:S,-.t.: Cot.: Nov.: Dec.
:ear I : "_ :. : -5. : 15 : 5 : : : : 12 : 15 : 15
:.Lt: .nt :z : .: A..: tC .-TS : '-ts C:' :3 C: ;. 3 e:;s cr.f s C-.*a Cents
Average:
1934-38: 15.8 15.7 1 .4 1 .j 14.6 14.0 1".9 1i.8 14.6 15.5 16.9 17.6

1933 : 17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 1C.4 1.7, 5!E.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 17.1 18.4
1939 : 18.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 It.5 11.7 14.4 14.3 15.4 15.3 16.0 15.6
1940 : 14.2 14.0 13.7 1. .5 1.2 1' .3 1,.9 1l.4 14.3 14.7 15.5 15.9


DOcMSTIC DTIPITM

Industrial activity has increased considerably since last August and
the index reached new peaks for each month in th3 final quarter of 1940.
However, this sharp rise has brought many important industries to near


- 10 -







PES-49


- 11 -


capacity operation so that attainmnert of full seasonal gains during the
next few months will be difficult, and some decline of seasonally corrected
measures of industrial activity may even result. But the actual rate of
operations in steel, in the machine-tools industry, and in Other iniportant
heavy goods industries producing 'or defense probably will expand farther
as capacity enlargement permits.

Nonagricultural employment (eycludir military) no'; is the highest
since 1929 and further gains are in prospect. laetion-l income payments for
1941 as a hole are expected to he about as large as in 1329, which in terms
of real purchasing power perhaps would be 10 to 15 percent higher. Thus the
domestic den;and for frr, products should be irmprovcd materially.

Index nunmbbers of nonugricultural income

(1924-29 100, adjusted for seasonal variation)


Year Jan.. Feb.. Lar.. Apr.:. Iay June. July: iuc. .Sept.. Oct.. Nov. Dec.
Average:
1929-38: 84.9 84.6 84.9 84.5 84.0 85.1 84.3 84.1 83.7 83.7 83.4 83.8

1938 : 88.0 97.6 97.4 86.5 85.9 85.6 85.7 7..5 388.0 89.5 89.5 90.6
1939 : 90.6 90.9 91.3 90.0 90.8 92.1 91.8 93.3 93.3 95.0 95.9 97.1
1940 : 96.9 96.2 95.9 95.3 96.4 9?.4 97.8 99.1 99.9 100.3 1/lQ.5

I/ Preliminary.





ES-49


- 12 -


IlrLX OF SPECIAL SUEJECTS DISCUSSED IN TEE
PO ULTY .-NL EGG SITUATION


Pages

Geographic location of storage stocks of eggs .... 6-8

Geographic location of storage stocks of poultry 8-11

Factors affecting the average price recr.ived by
farmers for turkeys ir. the United States ...... 13-16

Poultry and egg outlook for 1941 ................. -

Chick Eatchery Survey, 1937-38 .................. 11-13

A comparIson of ''our feed-egg ratios ............ 10-153

Estimated storage margin on shell eggs per dozen,
average 1916-35 and 1925-34, annual 1935-39 ... 11-12

1916-37 .................................. ..... 9

Change i'n official index of seasonal variation
of farm egg prices ........................... 9

Feed-egg ratio defined ........................... 10-11

Effects of the World War and possible effects
of the present war ............................ 4-7


Dece

Nove


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Augu

May


.Marc

.Febr


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Issue

mber 1940

umber 1940


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ember 1940

Lst 1940 |I

1, 1940 ':I


h.2, 1940

uary 1, 1938


uary 2, 1940

rmber 4, 1939"'


'mba r 10, 1939






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