Poultry and egg situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
November 1940
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00054

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text


4 S-9 ; 47


SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-47 Z NOVEMBER 1940


"m "7:
i"E


EE," ".

' :: '' .:

:.i !- ... : ...:
':. !* .. .





.tH. ..:": .' .
j .:.'.' ":..* .


I I I J I.^ -Southeast -" f t.,
South Gentral '. I J/ j I S u I I,

JAN. MAR. MAY JULY SEPT NOV. JAN MAR MAY JULY SEPT NOV JAN. MAR
1939 1940 1941
EXCLUDING CHICAGO EXCLUDING NEW YORK CITY


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 38740 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


A MAJOR PART OF THE DRESSED POULTRY IN STORAGE IN THE UNITED
STATES ON THE FIRST OF EACH MONTH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. CHICAGO AND NEW YORK CITY ARE THE TWO
MOST IMPORTANT STORAGE CENTERS. DURING THE INTO-STORAGE SEASON
STOCKS OF POULTRY ARE RELATIVELY LARGER IN THE SURPLUS-PRODUCING
AREAS THAN IN THE DEFICIT AREAS; DURING THE OUT-OF-STORAGE SEASON
THIS RELt.TICNSHIF TENDS TO BE REVERSED. (STORAGE HOLDINGS BY
REGIONS ARE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE SECTION ON "POULTRY STORAGE"
IN THIS REPORT.)


POULTRY: STORAGE HOLDINGS FIRST OF EACH MONTH. 1939-40
POUNDS
I MILLIONS I I









THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
EGGS I I PERCENT I I I
DOZENS) CHICAGO FEED-. NONAGRICULTURAL INCOMES
8 EGG RATIO 105 (1924-29100)



7 100



j \ f '- ----S24-29 -- ---
194N9





SAverage
5 1940 A- rage 1929-38
Average 85 9-38


04.f 80 I I I I I I I
POUNDS I I CENTS
MILLIONS U.S. STOCKS OF PER FARM PRICE OF TURKEYS
160 FROZEN POULTRY POUND

140 -.. 1940 A- erage
1939 17 934-38
120 1 11 -
16 1939 -
100 A Average
1929-38
15 -
1940
60 14

40 13
CASES CENTS i I i
I MILLIONS I FARM EGG PER FARM PRICE OF EGGS
PRODUCTION DOZEN
12


25 AAgverage ___-
9 1929-38




199

3 Average 1-5
1929-38 15 --
1940
0 IT 1 1 1
JAN. APR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY OCT
A M.S. DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME FINDEXt NUMBERS.ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
"ON THE FIRST OF EACH MONTH
U.S. DEPARTMEFNT'OT-GRICULTURE NEG. 38744 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

FIGURE I







PES-47


THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION


Summary

Supplies of turkey meat have been reduced as a result of the storm

in the Midwestern States. Nevertheless, this years production is in-

dicated to be second only to the record large 1939 production. Wholesale

prices in mid-November were about the same as a year earlier; farm prices

are expected to continue to rise relative to those in corresponding months

of 1939-40, largely because of the stronger consumer denand this year.

Receipts of poultry are now increasing seasonally. Poultry re-

ceipts at the principal markets for the 5 months ended November 1 were

larger than a year earlier despite the substantially smaller hatch this

year compared to 1939. The earlier than usual marketing of young stock

and turkeys, the continued heavy farm marketing of fowl, and an inter-

market movement of several classes of frozen poultry largely accounted for

the larger receipts. The effects of this year's smaller hatch and the fewer

fowl on farms probably will become noticeable in the near future. Consc-

quently, farm marketing during the remainder of this year are expected to

average smaller than they averaged in the corresponding period of 1939-

Storage stocks of poultry on November 1 rere nearly half again as large as

a year earlier mainly because of the considerably larger stocks of focl.

Prices received by farmers for chickens are now higher than a year

earlier and they are likely to continue higher for at least most of 1941,

because of the smaller supplies and larger consumer incomes.

SEgg production in October was the largest on record for that month.

The rate of lay per bird during the past few months was the highest on


2' .J


- 3 -






PES-47


record for the period, but the recent sudden change to much colder weather

in some important _producing areas probably curtailed the rate of lay. As

a result, with fewer layers than a year earlier, total egg production in

November and December of this year may be considerably smaller than the

record large November-December 1939. production. Any smaller production

than a year earlier will tend to cause a larger out-of-storage movement

for privately owned eggs since consumer demand is stronger than it was at

this time last year... United States storage stocks of eggs (excluding Gov-

ernment holdings of shell eggs) were about 2 percent larger on November 1

than they were a year earlier.

The average price received by farmers for aggs in -sid-October was

higher than a year earlier and it is expected to average higher than a year

earlier during 1941 because of the prospective smaller supplies of eggs and

larger consumer incomes.

November 19, 194o

=ED-EGG RATIO

The estimate of the 1940 corn crop has been increased about 3 per-
cent over the October 1 figure, thus increasing slightly the prospective
total supply of feed grains available for the 194O-4l feeding season.
The supply of feed grains (excluding the auantity of corn scaled or held
by the Govcrnnent) p:--r aiiral unit is slightly larger than the correspond-
ing supply last ye:r and is about 5 percent larger than the 1928-32
average.,

The cost of the poultry ration used in the Chicago feed-egg ratio
was a little lower in early November than it was in late October, and the
price of e-ggs was a little higher. As a result, the number of eggs re-
quired to buy 100 ,ounds of feed was smaller in early I'ovember than it has
been any time since last February. However, the number was considerably
larger than the number a year earlier or the 10-yenr average number.

The cost of poultry feed in coming months may be about the same as
a year earlier, or a little higher. Corn prices will be affected to h con-
siderable extent by the corn loan. The rate of the loan in the commercial
corn area this year is 0l cents per bushel compared with 57 cents last year.
Since egg prices are ex-oeced to be higher, the feed-egg ratio may average
more favorable for producers in the winter and spring of 190-41 than in the
corresponding period of 19Q9-o0.


__.4 -







PES-47 5 -

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)

: Week ending as of 1O40
Year :Jan. :Apr. :July :Sent.: Oct. : Nov. :Dec.
: 27 : 27 : 27 : 28 : 19 : 26 :_2 : 9 : 16 : 23 : 30 : 7
: Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.
Average:
1929-38: 5.55 6.68 6.62 5.-9 4.76 4.62 4.28 4.01 3.92 3.99 4.01 4.23


193S
1939
1940


: 6.39
b 6.65
: 5.38


5-85
6.65
8.21


5.12
5.76
7.61


4.10
6.39
6.02


3.71
5.29
6.21


3.79
5.13
5.95


3.43
.*73
5.61


3.44
4.66
5.90


3.61 3. 4g
4.62 4.73


3.56
5.68


3.86
6.23


EGG SITUATION

Number of layers on farms

Mainly because of the fewer pullets available for replacement, the
increase since Aus-ust in the nuibe'r of layers on farms has been considerably
less than it was for the corresponding period of 17139. This tendency is ex-
pected to continue and by January the number of layers on farms may be about
5 percent smaller than in January 1940. Since prices of both eggs and chick-
ens are expected to bc higher relative to feed ccsts dv-iring January to August
1941 than in the similar period of 1940, the decline in the number of layers
during that period is expected to be snall,.r than it as in 194O.

The number of la;'ers on farms in October of this year was about the
same as the number for October 1939 and the 10-year av-ra.-e number for that
month.

Number of l19yers on farms, United States


Year Jan.: Feb.; Mar.; Apr.,
M: il. Mil. Mil. 1Mil.


Average:
1929-38: 335 328
,L, 2


May : Junoe July" Aug.'Sept.: Oct.: Nov.. Dec.
M.il. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.


318 5o4 287 270 256 250 259 280 303 325


193g
1939
1940


: 307
: 322
S 2-


301 292
316 306
327 313


262
276
289


248
260
270


236
246
252


245
253
257


269
279
279


293 314
305 326


-19gg production

The average rate of lay per hen declined less from September to October
this year than it did during the corresponding period of 1939 and a little
loss than for the 10-year average. Less favorable weatherr during the re-
mainder of this year anr- early January than the unusually mild weather for
the corresponding period of last winter would tend to restrict the rate of


7.
;


.i .. ......... .


-
*Wrwar







PEBS-47 6 -

lay relative to a year earlier. Thus, with fewer layers in prospect, egg
production may be reduced considerably from last year's record production
for that period. The number of eggs produced per layer in November and De-
cembe6r 1939"was abot-t 31 r:.crcent above the 1929-38 average and about .28-
'"percent above the number r-od-ced in 1936.

SEgg production during the first half of 1541 probably will be less
than in the first half of -12',40 as a result of the smaller number of layers
on farms.

Average number ,f eggs produced per layer, United States

: : : : I : :
Year : Jan.. Feb.: Mar,. Apr.: May June: July. Aug.:Sept." Oct. Nov." Dec.
: No. No. No. ii-,. Thio. Io. No. IT.i. ITo. No. No. No.
Average:
1929-3j: 6.3 ?.6 14.2 16.6 16.7 14.2 12.7 11.1 8.9 6.7 4.8 5.0

1913 : 7.- 9.9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 11.g 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
199 : s. 9.17 1.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 93 7.4 6.0 6.g
1914 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.8 13.4 11.8 9.7 7.9


Total farm production of eggs, United States

Year Jan.. Feb.. MIar.. Arr.. ma, June. July. Aug.. Sept.. Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
: Mil. .ii. Mil. MIil. Mil. :Mi. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
:cases case cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Leverage:
1929-3g: 5.9 7.9 12.5 14.1 13.3 10.6 9.0 7.7' 6.4 5.2 .4.0 4.0

193 : 6.7 S.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5-5
1959 : 7.2 8.5 12.6 13. 0 3.C 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5-.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 8.2 12.7 14.' 13.7 11.1 9q.4 .1 7.0 6.2


Egg s storage

Storage stocks -.f shell 'ggs in the United States on iIovember 1 (ex-
cluding the 717,000, case's held by the Surplus Marketing Administration)
were ab:ut 2 percent smaller thar a year earlier wher.:''.s stocks of frozen
eggs were about 7 percent larger than in IT-vember 1, 1939. Privately owned
stocl:s of shell and fr:.zen eggs ccmbiried were 2 percent larger than a year
ec rlier.

The out-of-storage movement frnn Agust to date for frozen eggs and
priva tel y ownedd shell eggs has been abcut the same as fcr the comparable
peri-d of 1939.. However, r-ith smaller nroducti:,n in immediate prospect and
;ith the co:.tinued strong coonsumer demand, the out-of-storag~ movement may
soon become larger tha-- a year earlier: Thus storage stocks on hand at the
beginning of 1941 may be smaller than they were in early January of 1940.








Eggs: Storage stoc'-s in the United-4 States and stbra.re movement at 26 markets


United States
: +cstock ._=
Year .
: Oct. : [v.
l1 : 1

: cases ca-ses


Shell:
Ave rage :
1929-38 :


SI -49.


: Oil.t-cf- toran-e ..iove:;ent,.
wee!: er.dinr: .3 of 19.0
: 'c..: ___ lov. : Dec.
: 26: 2 : 9 : 16 : 23 : 30 : ?
.'c 1,' 1000 1 000 1, 000 1,000 1,000 00
c sez carEs cases ca'es cascs cases cases


+, 7 .33 21 '1


354 370 33 31


1938 : ,76 6
1939 : 5,430
1940 : 15;13?
Frozen:
Average
1929-38 : 2,922


1938
1939
1940


3,150
' '' ,
3,73 1-


43,519
1,2/3)467?


2L 3 289 272
296 3;c 361
.07 332 315
I )', -<,


327 278 2.2 208
304 3Y0 30'3 224


2,5'1


2,o?-'
2 C :7'


1/ Excludes 01 ,000( case; on uictob'-er 1 and 717,000 ca--s on !!over,,ber 1 sold
by the Surplus M;ar;-.etint Ardjiinistrat ion for relief distribution.
2/ Prelir inarv.

E prices

The marc.in cf this year's price receive by1 far.ers for eggs over
that of a year earlier .ridened from :d-Sept.--embe: t mid'i-0Ltb-) ann in the
latter month the price was nearly a cent higher than in mid-Octc.er 1939.
However, the raid-October price was 3.4 cents belo., the October 1938 price
and 2.5 cents below' the 192q-3, avera-e October price.

The advance duirin- recent '.,ee':s in wholesale prices for fresh e-c-s
has not been as sharp as iwa the advance in the corres:'on,:.inr period of
1939, an:' some vwholesale prices were a little lower than' the corresponding
prices a year ear-ier. uat as the decline in proc:.uction becomr.es more pro-
nounced and as consujiner incomes e:'paund, tlesale prices an3id prices received
by farmers are expected to advance r&Lativ: to prices a year earlier. The
price received by farrers for eG s is e:-xpected to evera-e higher than a year
earlier durin- at least most of 19/1.


Price per dozen received. '-,. farm.'rs for e'.s


Year Jan.: Feb. Mar.: Apr. May Ju'ne July. Arr.o. Sept. Oct. Niov. Dec.
ICents Cents Cents Ce-nts Cents Cents Cants Cunts Cunts Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1929-38: 24.2 20.3 17.3 16.8 16.8 16.8 18.1 19.9 23.2 26.2 30.1 23.8


I7,: 193C
1939
1940
:l ..,


: 21.6
: 18.8
: 18.3


16.4
16.7
20.2


16.2
16.0
15.4


15.9
15.5
15.0


17.6
15.2
15.1


18.2 19.9
1/.9 16.5
1l.4 16.4


21.0
17.5
17.2


24. 9
20.6
21.0


27.1 29.0
22.9 25.8
23.7


27.9
20.5


II..


V.
~1


PES-47


- 7 -









POILTR S'TU IAT-'-

Poult ry. marketing

Receit. ts of poultry- at theft rrincipal uars:ets fcr the 3 r.on-.hs enc'.ed
Nover.-ter 1 were larger than a year earlier despite the substantially araller
hatec- this year compared to 193'. This nay have bee.- the result of earlier
than usual mnarketLin-s of yourog stock and turk.eyes, the continued heavy farm
marketing of fo;l. and a heavy inter-ar':et movement of several classes of
frozen pou.liT-:-. (See the following section and accomrnpain;,z chart.s.) Al-
though far.i nar.'etings may be stimu,, la:e.e in some w.ee.:s. o. cold wert..--er,
weekly receipts curing tLie remainder of this year are e:-pectede to average
asaller than they av,.er.ged Ln the correspcindir ceriod of 1939.

L'a.'or rarketings of young sto:.' a:,'parently iave occurred earlier
than uu.al this year, anI any sti.-ulus to farm mar'-etings as a result of
cold wevat.er would tend to result in 4mal1er ,nmaR"etings at an.d rediately
after the close of the year. Fol r..ar!-etLis robA.bly ill be asaller this
year because there are fev-er layers on farm: anwcd egg prices are expected to
be hither tha. a year earlier d..rin. :-o.qfrg months.

2.ecr.ipts of dressed poultr'- at fcur .aret

(tlir York, hic?.::0, Philac.lphia, _oson,)

:___ ;~__ __ ;lee'-: -.".mn- as oc 1740 ZZZ I ZZ
Year : Sept. : Oct. : ._:v. .: Dec.
21 : 2 : 1- : : 2 : : 16 : : 30 : 28
: 1,00. 1,000 1,000 1, 030 1,00 1,:1 o C' 1, 1,,00 1,000 1,000
: pounds oct.C's noi.u-d s ,ou.ids cuds c.ds 'o': rnds OOUrcids nods pods ods pounds
Average:
1929-38: ,1S1 6,517 7,4-' 7,562 7,718 ,P90 17,32 25,533 1L,164 10,525

1938 : o,6o8 6,93 1 3,55i 8,17 ,, 33,364 17,101 3,596 5,835
1939 7,371 7,530 7,733 3,43:-' 9,470 11,741 2C,2P0 23,999 12,471 9,187
1940 : ;7i 3,403 10,327 9,7?.5 9-, 350 12,256


Poultry stor---e

The increase during c.t ,-er i.1 total stora--e stoc':s of poultry was
sli --tly larger thar. the inc-ease dur'_r- Octobner 193?5 z"id stocks on ;ovem-
ber 1 of t'.is year v.ere about 45 percent lar-er than they v were a year earli-
er. The lar-er thi a usual incr-eas.- n stocks olf fi''il accut offset the un-
usually Icrgz. d.-crease in holdings of t.ur': a little ..1ore t-an usual also, but sc.. of a.ll other- classes chfnred about
the usual seasonal amounts.

Lar:etin. s of fe-shly dressed cic-:e.-s ar.c fo-..l uy be smaller than
a year ea-lier during cc:,-ing,- morn.hs, LTi'nce ti-is ye r'r hatch is consider-
ably s.aler than last year' s. ark' in s cf these classes have bees earli-
er and lar-er than they i-:re last year, and ti-i nuuzmbcr of layers not, on


PES-A7


-0 _










POULTRY: STORAGE HOLDINGS FIRST OF EACH MONTH.
BY CLASSES, 1939-40
POUNDS --- -- -- --- -- I -- --
( MILLIONS I BROILERS



0 -- i I


JAN. MAR. MAY JULY SEPT. NOV. JAN. MAR. MAY JULY SEPT NOV. JAN. MAR
1939 1940 1941
United States --New York City Chicago
'EXCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND CHICAGO

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 38741 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2











POULTRY: STORAGE HOLDINGS FIRST OF EACH MONTH.
BY CLASSES AND BY REGIONS. 1939-40


JAN. MAR MAY JULY SEPT NOV. JAN MAR MAY JULY SEPT NOV JAN MAR.
1939 1940 1941


- North Central* ---South Central
EXCLUDING CHICAGO


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


.--NortheastA ---Southeast
A EXCLUDING NEW YORK CITY


--- West


NEG 38742 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 3








PES-/-7 11 -

fanus is smaller than a year earlier. Furthermore, consumer incomes are
iLore than 7 percent larger than at this time last year, which will makesa
strong demand for freshly dressed poultr; of all 'kinds. Thus, storage
stocks at the beginning of 191?1 may be somewhat smaller than they were in
early 1940.

Geographic location of stora-ze
stocks of -oultry

Th- data presented in chart form on. the cover page of this report and
in figures 2 and 3 show the relative arr.ounts of poult ry stored in New York,
Chicago. and the several geographic divisions. The Worth Central States and.
the groupp of St.:.tes in the northeast section (iew England and iMiddle Atlan-
tic States) store the largest quantities of poultry throughout the year.
The Westerr. States (Pacific Coast and Hountain States) usually store less
than half as much as either of the t"o abo-.e group., anr' the South Central
and. Southeastern States store a i'elcativ-.ely s.,all part of the total.

The qura-tit-. of 11 p,.Llt:- storeI at le%7 Yor': ity is about the same
as the quantity stored at Chica-o. However, .rith respect to -in'.ivi.ual
classes of po.'it,'., t--h rsp:tive 0uwu.tities stc'rd in the t-.o cities, and
the relative Lrpcrtanc, o' thie '.fferznt regions in storing individual
classes vary- considerabl.-. These relationEnips are s-.'o.n clearly in figures
2 and. 3 and 1n tnc cha-t or. the cov-r -r.c.

Although stora-.' holor-in s at l',i York Cit'.- and at other cities in
deficit-produ.cini- areas fluctuate dui-rin. th-e..ear the fluctuations in hold-
ings in surplus-pi :'duci.'. areas are riuch more p:'roa:-uncd. As shown in the
lower section of T.e ci:.'t on th-,e ccver oae, stor;'e holcinvs in the North
Central States cener-:l- ar- lar-er thn in-, the po'rth.east Cdurin' the into-
stor.?ge season, wh-rcss drjrinr tlie out-of-storage season the reverse .pner-
ally is the case. T'Ti. irsults in. a consida:bi, l-: i-rmarket movement .of
frozen poultr.. Since froz-e.I poultry is not separated from freshly dressed
poultry in receipts, th: data on ve'-l-' r cipts .at four m.arets cannot be
used as .an exact -easu--e 'f r-.ce'.f.ts of fresh-ly dcr:ss:o poultry at these
amar!:ets. The resi.ult of this inl. -.:.;t nrov:em.nt m.- n.t sho-.'; up in
changes in storact.: h.lcin-ns :t,;..-, r :.',-nt citi.-s, .Lice additional fresh
(or frozen,) poultry can b shipopd in irr.on .r..ore cist arit country points. It
is proablen that intern r'et mov'.i!:nts of frozen poultry partly explain the
larger rececipts of dressed poultry at the four pi-incipal markets during the
late summer and .erly fell of this -ear.

The intermar'-:et movement of tur'-e ys during the past suinmmer may have
been the most important factor causing the larger rece.ipcr of frozen poultry
at four ra)2'.:ets, since holdin-s of tu- :ey,-s declined iori-e in the "ertern
SStates this year than they did in either the [,Torth Central or Northeastern
4 States. Stocks of broilers and fryers in the W'orth Central States i.ere
- larger than in any other region in every ionth in 1939-20.







12 -

Poultry: Storage stocks .n the United States, and storage
movement at 26 markets


United States : -
st ocks :
Oct. 1 : ov. 1: Oct. :
: : : 26 : 2 :
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds


ito-storage move. ent, w-ek ending
as of 1940


Nov. : Dec.
9 : 16 : 25 : 50 : 7
1,000 1,000 1.000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds


55,073 71,176 3,110. 3,362 35,649 4,5315 6,740 8,899 8,820


59,942 77,692
63,164 79,228
90,842 1/114,625


4,117
3,038
3,681


3,586
4,740
4,541


3,593 5,814
6,629 5,392
4,596


9,144 12,279
9,456 17,462


1/ Prc 1 imin aiy.


Chic-en 1 pries

The evcrage price received by farmers for chickens decreased less
than seasonally between mid-September and mid-October this ycar, and the
price in October was about a half cent hi=thr than a year earlier. The
effe-cts of t his year's smaller hatch in causing smaller supplies of chick-
en meat may soon become noticeable. Because of this fEctor and the larger
consumer incomes which are expected to continue, chicken prices are likely
to remain higher than a year earlier during at least tht: first half of 1941.

Price per pound received by farmers for chickens

: Jan.: Feb.: i.: iLr.: .Apr.: a'qy : June: July: Aug.:Scpt.: Oct.: liov.: Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Ccnts Cents Cents Cents Crnts Cents Cents
Average:
1929-38: 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.9 15.2 14.6 14.1 13.6


1939
1939
1940


: 16.7
: 1.0
: 12.0


16.0
14.2
12.2


15.9
14.3
12.8


16.2
14.4
12.9


16.1
13.9
13.6


15.7
13.4
13.3


15.0
13.7
-13.6


14.2
13.0
13.4


14.3
13.6
13.7


13.6
12.7


13


13.6
12.4


13.6
11.7


.3
A


FRLL iAdT WINTER 3REIL2RS


Hatchery production of baby chicks is continuing larger than a year
earlier in m,,st broiler-produicing areas of the country. This reflects in
part the hiaghr chicken prices comnarcd to the fall of 139 and in part the
c:-ntirnucd expansion of the commercial broiler industry. CoTunmrcial broiler
trr':iucti:n may tc larger this v.inter than in the 15-39-hIJ conrercial broiler.
season, since fresh s iuplics fr'-r. other areas will be snaller and farm
prices na.y continue higher than they were a year earlier.


PES-47


Year


Average :
1929-38 :


1938
1939
1940


7,166
9,166







FES-47 13 -

TURKEYS

Supplies of turkey meat hav.-- -en reduce-d as a -esult of the storm -
in the i-d'.dwestern States. The losses were p-rticul.rj'y heavy in some
States, '.nd for the country os a whole more than offset the 1 percent largr.r
number of turkeys raised this year compared to 1939. Nevertheless, this
year's production is indi. 't-..d to be the second largest on record.

ihe mid- October f.jrm price for turkeys was -bout .a half cent below
a year i-rlier, but wholesale prices in mid-iocvcember were a-bout the same as
a y-ar earlier. Bec use of the larger consumer income. s and srillrr supplies
of frez-i poultry in prospect, turkey prices during thr next sever.-al months
prob'o.b'y will continue to increase rela.ti-v to those of a year ec-rli-r.

storage stocks of turkeys h.id been reduced to 11,716,000 pounds by
November 1. This martin over y-a.r c.r-iier on that Late (-45 percent) is
the smallest that h-s been re-cordad in more- than a ycar.

In carly liovember the Surolus i'.;:rketing Administration announced
that turkeys would be purchased this sec-on to be distributed in the school
lunch prugramri. Hoiwev-.Vr, :rl;y offerings v.-rr rejected pending a more com-
plete appri-is-al of the effiectz of th storm on the turkey crop and .on tur-key
prices.

DOMESTIC DE'JT-

Tmprovcment in the domestic d.am-nd for farm products is continuing
as industrial activity a-nd consumer buying power are stimul-,ted directly
.?nd in'.rectly by the defe-nse program nd b.- 1:rge exports of industrial
products. Although inventors of dur-ble goods hve be-en increasing re-
cently, unfilled orders of producers have not been r:-duced, foreshadowing
further g_-ins in industry l production during the n.-xt few mckths. However,
further inprovemcnt for se7:ral months -ftcr J,-.nu:iry 1 41 is much less like-
ly bec-.use output in some import-nt industries now is too close to capacity
to permit tht full se-.sonal g-.ins which are usu:.l in thosc months, anrd be-
cause inventory building will b.- lss urgent by th .t time.

Index numbers of nonagricultural inc:nec
(1924-29 = 100, adjusted for se..son-l v-riation)


7:-ar Tnn.. Feb.. air.. Apr.. iAy J. une July. Aug. Sept.. Oct. iTov.: Doc.
Average
1929-38 : 84.9 84.6 84.9 84.5 84.0 85.1 84.3 84.1 85.7 86.7 83.4 83.8

1938 : 8.0 87.6 87.4 86.5 85.9 65.6 85.7 87.5 88.0 88.5 89.5 90.6
1959 30.6 90.9 91.3 90.0 90.8 92.1 91.8 95.3 93.3 95.0 95.9 97.1
1940 96.9 96.2 95.9 95.3 96.4 97.4 97.8 99.1 J/99.8

l/ Preliminary.




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


3 1262 08904 0470