Poultry and egg situation

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Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
September 1940
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00052

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text
-r : -A r


THE


-SITUATION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
." UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-45 -_ SEPTEMBER 1940

5 '.. ,



PRODUCTION AND PRICE OF EGGS, AND INDEX NUMBERS OF
NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME, UNITED STATES. 1921-39


ACTION
iES
IONS)


90
80
70'
80


1921


1924 1927 1930 1933 1936
*PRODUCTION PLUS NET IMPORTS. ADJUSTED FOR CHANGE IN STOCKS


.DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


PRICE
( CENTS PER
DOZEN I

25


20


15


10
INCOME
(PERCENT)
-- 100
-f 90
- 80
J- 70
3- 60
1939


NEG. 38591 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


DURING THE YEARS 1921-39 CHANGES IN PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS
FOR EGGS WERE CAUSED PRIMARILY BY CHANGES IN CONSUMER DEMAND, MEAS-
URED IN THIS CHART BY NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
BY CHANGES IN PRODUCTION. THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN NONAGRICULTURAL
INCOME ON CHANGES IN EGG PRICES IS PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE FOR THE
DEPRESSION YEARS. SINCE 1935 THE TREND IN EGG PRICES HAS BEEN DOWN-
WARD, CHIEFLY BECAUSE OF INCREASES IN SUPPLIES.


.44


Uir. ,




i: "!:" :" ': "
.'


., f :



u. .S
.: *


::::

,,ii1
""
::. ::::::.


.._o. ............










THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE


EGGS
I DOZENS )
8



7



6



5



4
POUNDS
MILLIONS)
160


140


120


100


80


60


40
CASES
I MILLIONS I
8



6



4


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A. M. S. DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME
'ON THE FIRST OF EACH MONTH


U 5. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


CENTS
PER
POUND
18


17


16


15


14


13
CENTS
PER
DOZEN




25


j 1940

JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
#INDEX NItMBERS, ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
t INCLUDES SHELL AND FROZEN. CASE EQUIVALENT

NErG 38592 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I







PES-45


S----
THE POULTRY A 17 D EGG SITUATION


Summary

Suoclies of eg;s in the United States for the first half of 1941 ore

expected to be about 3 or 4 percent smaller than in the first half of 1940,

and supplies of chicken meat (including fowl) for the snie period may be

about 5 percent smaller than a year earlier. Domestic egg sul.lies for the

remainder of 1940 are likely to be only slightly smaller than a year earlier,

but supplies of chicken meat may be considerably smaller. Storage stocks

of turkeys are considerably larger than a year earlier, and the larger stocks

will tend to offset the decrease in 10W turkey production from that of 1939-

Domestic consumer demand for poultry products is expected to remain

stronger than a year earlier during the remainder of 1940 and probably will

be well maintained in the first half of 1941, in view of the increasing ex-

penditures for national defense. lie demand for poultry ?nd eygs in 194l

also will be stimulated to some e:-tent by smaller supplies of other neats,

especially pork.

As a result of the expected smaller supplies and stronger demand,

chicken, 2 i, d turkey prices are e:.pected to average higher in the first

half of l'94l than in the first half of 1940. Turkey prices for the remainder

of 1940 may be about the same as a year earlier, or slightly lower, while

chicken and e-g prices may be somewhat higher.

With the exception of corn, prices of most feeds used in poultry

rations ?.re expected to be about the same in the coming season as they were

a year earlier, if not lower. The price of corn may be higher and the cost

of poultry ration which include a substantial quantity of corn nay be about

the same as the cost a year earlier. But, as a result of the e-pected higher



.. :. .


-53-





PES-45


- 4 -


egg prices, the number of dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of

poultry ration during the remainder of 1940 and the first half of 1941 may

average smaller than in the same period a year earlier, although the number

probably will continue to avers.ge larger than the number required in the

1929-3S average during the corresponding period. However, individual pro-

ducers may be able to obtain a cheaper ration by substituting to some extent,

other grains for corn. Other costs of producing poultry products are ex--

pected to be about the same in 1941 as in 1940.

Because of the more.favorable feed-egg ratio in prospect for the first

half of 1941 than in.the first half of 1940, the hatch of .chicks next year

may be l.arxer than-in 1940. This rill mark the upturn in .ahat may be another

3-year cycle of chick production, and probably will result in increased

marketing of chickens and eggs in the last part of 1941 relative to the last

few months of 1940...

WIith higher chicken prices expected for the coming fall rnd winter and

feed costs about the same as a year earlier, the production of broilers in

the commercial broiler areas this fall and winter is expected to be as large

as in the fall and winter of 1939-40, if not larger.

September 20, 1940

FZ 2EGG& RATIO

The prospective 1940-41 supply of all feed grains, as indicated on
September 1 is about ll million tons, compared with 118 million tons last
year and the 1929-32 average of 10S million tons. Excluding the 430 million
bushels of corn which may be sealed or held by the Government on October 1,
the supply of feed grains will total about 103 million tons co:,mared with
111 million tons last year. The number of feed grain-consuning livestock,
however, will be about 3 or percent less than a year earlier. And the
prospective supply of feed grains per animal unit may be only about 4 percent
smaller than in 1939-40, and about the same as a year earlier if sealed corn
is included. Total supplies of high protein feeds and other concentrated
feeds used e:.:tensively for poultry feeding are expected to be a little larger
in 1940-41 than in 1939-40.

Prices of certain feed grains bear a considerably different relation
to each other this fall than they did in the latter part of 1939, During






PES- 45


- 5 -


July and August of 1940, 1 bushel of corn was equivalent in price to 2.2
bushels and 2.4 bushels of oats respectively, compared to 1.8 bushels for
both months in 1939. As compared to the price of barley, corn was equivalent
to 1.7 bushels in these months of 1940'compared to 1.3 bushels a year earlier.
Thus the corn-oats price ratio is the highest since August 1938 and the corn-
barley price ratio is the highest since September 1937. The price received
by farmers for corn was higher than the price for wheat in July and August of
1940 for the first time since 1937. The price of corn also is high relative
to the price of bran. Therefore, the substitution of other feeds for corn
in poultry rations vill tend to reduce poultry feeding costs as long as the
above relationshios continue.

Droughts occurred in some sections of the United States in 1940 but any
feed shortages in these areas probably will be taken care of by shipments of
feed from areas of abundant supplies. The several regional feed-eg; ratios
discussed in the May Poultry and Egg Situation indicate that feed costs in
relation to egg prices are higher than usual in all sections of the country.
These regional ratios, however, bear about the same relation to each other as
in former years. Teed costs in the 1939-40 crop year were highest relative
to egg prices in all regions since 1936-37.

The number of eggs require6i to buy 100 pounds of poultry feed at
Chicago wrs considerably larger than a year earlier during the first S months
of 1940 with the exception of a few weeks in January and February. Beginning
early in Se-tember the feed-egg ratio became more favorable than a year
earlier. With higher egg prices and little change in feed prices expected
for 1940-41 as compared with 1939-10, the feed-egg ratio is ez:ected to aver-
age more favorable than a year earlier, although it may average less favorable
than the 10-year average for the corresponding period.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)

: Week ending as of 1940
Year : ?eb.: liay : July: Aug. : Sept. : Oct.: Hov,
: 24 : 25 : 27 : 17 : 24 : 31 : 7 : 14 : 21 : 28 : 5 : 30
Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.
Average:
1929-30: 5.87 6.go 6.62 6.36 6.11 5.98 5.79 5.65 5.63 5.49 5.04 4.01

1938 : 6.92 5.41 5.12 4.87 4.57 .4.26 4.o4 4.16 4.13 4.10 3.91 3.56
1939 : 3.21 7.21 5.76 6.15 6.33 6.13 7.os 6.59 5.66 6.39 6.10 5.68
940 : 6.23 7.92 7.61 7.17 7.08 6.7S 6.36 6.25


HATCHINGS

Larely because of the very unfavorable feed-egg ratio during the hatch-
ing season of 1940 and the resultin- weak demand for chicks, commercial hatcher-
:' ies produced 11 percent fewer baby chicks in the first 3 months of 1940 than
in the corresponding months of 1939. Home hatchings were reduced, likewise,
and the number of pullets not of leaving age on hand on Seotember 1 was about
6 percent smaller than a year earlier.





r
- 0 -


Since 19?29, when records on courercial hatchings first became avail-
able, hadchings have followed a definite 3-year cycle, 1 year dovn and 2
years up. Should this cycle be continued, more chicks will be produced by
hatcheries in 1941 than were produced in 1940. The more favorable feed-egg
ratio in prospect for the fall and winter of 1940-41 will tend to increase
hatching, so that the total production of chicks in the United States
probably will be larger in 1941 than in 1940. The shift from farm to com-
mercial hatching of baby chicks -orobably will continue during the ne::t few
years but ?.t a declining rate.

POULTRY S ITUATION

Poultry mark etings

Receipts of dressed poultry at the four principal markets during the
first S months of 1940 were 16 percent larger than in the corresponding period
of 1939. The excess of receipts over those of a year earlier declined from
31 percent in the first 4 months to 6 percent in the second 4 months. These
larger receipts resulted partly from the larger inventories of live poultry
carried over from 1939 and partly from the unusually heavy inter-market move-
ment of storage poultry.

Because of the smaller hatch in 1940 and the smaller n-uT-ber of layers
now on hEnd, farm marketings of chickens (including fowl) are e:roected to de-
cline relative to tarketings of a ,er:r earlier, and to average smaller during
the remainder of 1940 and the firLt helf of 1941 than in the corresponding
period in 1939-40. Iar!:etins of turkeys also may tend to be smaller than
those of a year earlier.

Because of the e-pected larger production of chickens in 1941, market-
ings of poultry during the last half of that year probably vill be larger than
during the last half of 1940.

Receipts of dressed poultry at four markets

(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston)
: Week ending as of 1940
Year : July : Aug. : Scot. : Oct.
: 20 : 27 : 17 : 24 : 31 : 7 : 14 : 21 : 28 : 26


:1 ,0C00


1,000


1,000


1,000 1,000


1,000


1,000 1,000


1,000


1,000


Average :-ounds rounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
1929-38 : 4,769 4,625 5,113 5,213 5,370 5,349 .5,3756 611 6,517 7,562

1938 : 4,506 5,405 4,567 4,So4 5,005 5,382 5,972' 3,5' 6,981 8,817
1939 : 5,942 6,948 5,608 5,624 6,Os1 5,1S8 6,443 7,371 7,530 S,438
1940 :5,724 6,079 7,540 7,008 7,547 6,507 7,979


Poultry storp.,ae

Total holdings of poultry declined more than seasonally C.uring the first
few months of 1940. Beginning in the early summer, however, holdings increased
contraseasonally, largely because of heavy marketing of fowl, and indirectly
as a result of heavy farm marketin-s of breeder turkeys. Storfge stocks of
young chickens now are smaller than a year earlier, as shown in figure 2, where-
as stocks of fowl, turkeys, and ducks are considerably larger than usual. j










STORAGE HOLDINGS OF DRESSED POULTRY, BY CLASSES.
UNITED STATES. AVERAGE 1934-38, AND 1939 TO DATE


POUNDS |O
(MILLIONS FOWLS


-1940o

20 -




10

SAverage
1934-38

0 I I I

TURKEYS


60 --


0 \ -1940


50




40




30

1939


20




10 ---


Avera e 1934-38


JA0 N.1 APR.I JULY I OCT
JAN.1 APR.I JULY I OCT 1


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


POUNDS
(MILLIONS)
20




10




0





10




0





30




20




10


JAN I APR.1 JULY 1 OCT.1

NEG 38593 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2


I,







The into-storage movement during the remainder of 1940 will tend to
be smaller than in the closing months of 1939. Although total storage stocks
at the end of the year may be smaller than those of a year earlier, they
probably will be considerably larger than the 1929-35 average, and will tend
to consist of a larger proportion of foul and turkeys than at the end of 1939.

The er-.-ected higher level of consumers' income during the coning winter
end spring will be favorable to a heavy out-of-storage movouent of poultry
during th.-t time and may result in considerably smaller stocks of poultry for
the su5rmer of 1941.

Poultry: Storage stocks in the United States, and stor-ge
movement at 26 markets

: United States : Storage movement, -eek ending
: stocks : as of i_40
ear Aug. 1 Se : Aug. : Set. : Oct.
3Aug. 1 1Seot. 1 1 7 : 14 : 21 : 25 5
: 1,000 1,000 i, oc' 1,000 1, 00 1,000 1,C0 1,000
Aver ,-e : tounun nunds sound os -oonds pounds pounds pounds pounds
1329-35: 45,sCi 47,785 353 641 621 1,050 1,926 2,204

1935 : 52,64k0 54,941 -757 4L0 197 1,260 2,144 2,483
1939 : 64,9lS 62,[70 -b19 -610 -1,122 -119 1,049 441
194o0 : 02,15 1/S2,137 -814 137 601

I/ Preliminary.

Chicken prices

The avert'.e price received by farmers for chickens cdurinc the first
half of 1940 was considerably below both that of a year earlier and the
1929-39 average. However, prices rose relative to those of a year earlier,
and by August the mid-month price wvs higher than that of Auguist 1939. The
low prices in the early months of l-40 were largely the results of large
supplies of both turkeys and chickens. Improved consumer denand and the
more favorable supply situation em.lain the increasing chicken prices.

As a result of the expected smaller supplies of chicken and other com-
peting neats End the stronger consumer demand, chicken prices during the re-
mainder of 1340 and the first half of 1941 are orpected to average higher than
those of a year earlier.

Price per nound received by farmers for chickens

: Jan.: 7eb.: liar.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aug.: Sent.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
Ye : 15 : 5 : 15 15 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1929-3": 14.g 15.0 15.3 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.9 15.2 1 .6 14.1 13.6

1938 : 1.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.8 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.6 13.4


F3Es-45


- a -






PES-45


EGG SITUATION

Number of layers on farms

The number of layers on farms at the beginning of 1940 was about 3
percent larger than in January 1959 and about 8 percent larger than at the
beginning of 1938 but was slightly smaller than the 1929-38 average numb-er.
Numbers of layers declined at a less-than-seasonal rate frdm January
through May but the decline from June to August was sharper than usual.
At the seasonal low point in August the number of layers on farms was only
2 percent above a year earlier and was 1 percent below the 10-year average.

The increase in numbers of layers which takes place from September
to January probably will be less than usual this year largely because of
the 6 percent fewer pullets now available for flock replacements. The num-
.. ber, of course, also will be influenced by the relation between costs of
feed ,and other items and the price of eggs. However, the more favorable
feed-egg ratio, which is expected for this fall and winter, may cause far-
mers to carry over a larger proportion of their old hens than they did in
1939. The number of layers on farms in January 1941 may be from 3 to S
percent smaller than in January 19'o.

This decrease in numbers of layers is a normal part of the 3-year
cycle since, for the past 2 years, numbers have bpen increasing. It is
expected that the number of layers in January 19l1 will be slightly larger
Than the number in January 1938, the preceding low point in the cycle.
The decline in numbers fron January to August 1941 nma. be less than in
1940 since prices of both eggs and chickens are expected to be higher, rela-
tive to feed costs, during that period than they were in January to August
of 1940.

Because of the expected larger hatch in 194l, the number of layers
on farms at the beginning of 1942 may; be larger than the number in January
1941.

Hunter of layers on farns, United States


Year .Jan. .Fe. .Mar. :Apr.. May .June :July .Aug. :Sept.:Oct. :Uov. :Dec.


:Mil. Mil. M'il. Mil. Mil. Iil. Mil. ail. Mil. Mil. Mil. !Til.
Average
1929-3- 335 328 318 304 287 270 256 250 259 280 303 325

'. 1938 : 307 301 292 278 262 248 236 234 245 269 293 314
.1939 : 322 316 306 292 276 260 246 242 253 279 305 326
1940 : 332 327 318 304 289 270 252 247


Egg production

The lower rate of lay in January and February of 1940, caused by the
unusually cold weather at that tine, morc than offset tho larger number of
layers on hand and resulted in smaller egg production for those 2 months


'V. :' -. i]. .. .. ..


- 9 -






PES-45 10 -

than in January and Februar.;, of 1939. Beginning in March, however, the
output of eggs increased relative to a year earlier and by May and June
the monthly production was about 5 percent larger than the 1939 produc-
tion for those months. Monthly production of eggs has declined relative
to a year earlier, with the sharp drop in number of layers which began in
July, but during A..',ust production continued 4 percent above that of Au-
gust 1939. Total agg production for 1940 is expected to be larger than in
1939, which will make this year's production the largest since 1931.
The average production per layer during the first 8 months of 1940
was 'well above the 10-year average for those months but was somewhat below
the production in the corresponding months of 1938 and 1939. The lower
rate of lay for 1940 probably was due partly to unusual weather conditions
and partly to the unfavorable feed-egg ratio. The expected more favorable
feed-egg ratio for the laying season of 1940-41 nay encourage heavier feed-
ing and better care. However, the effects of this on the rate of lay will be
offset, to sone extent at least, by the effects of the smaller proportion of
pullet layers in layinF flocks.

With a decrease indicated in the number of la7yrs for next year and
no great change probable in the average rate of lay per bird, total egg
production during the first half of 19L1 is expected to be snaller than in
the first half of 1940. However, because of the expected larger hatch for
1941, total egg production, in the last few months of that ycar nay be
larger than in the l:.st few months of 1940.

Total farn production of eggs, United States

Year Jan. Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May iJun.e July Au-i.'Sept.' Oct.: Nov." Dec.
M: il. Mil. L.il. Mi,. i il. IMil. Mil. Mi Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cares cases cases cases
Ave rage:
1929-38: 5*9 7-9 12.5 14.1 13.3 10.6 9.0 7.7 6.4 5.2 4.0 4.0

1938 : 6-7 .3 12.5 17.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5-5
1939 : 7.2 S,5 12.6 13.8 17.o 10.b 9.1 7.8 6.5 5-7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 E.2 12.7 l4.0 13.7 11.1 9.4 8.1



Ave rage number of eggs produced per lawyer, United States

Year .Jon. Feb.: ilar.. Apr.: May .Jmne .July AuL1. :S,-t.. Oct.. Nov.. Dec.
: .o. No. No. No. o. No. To. I.. ir. No. No. No.
Average:
1929-35: 6.3 8.6 14.2 16.6 16.7 14.2 12.7 ll.1 g.9 6.7 4.8 5.0

1938 : 7.9 9.9 15.4 17.5 17-3 14.9 13.6 11.8 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 : 8.0 9.7 14.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.-7 7.4 6.0 6.S
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.8 13.4 11.3


-j







PES-45


EZ, storage

Storage stocks of shell eggs in the United States on August 1, 1940
were larger than a year earlier b-y about 750,000 cases, or nearly 11 percent.
Included in the holdings, however, vferc 1,068,000 cases held by the Sur-
plus Marketing Association for relief distribution. Total stocks of pri-
vately owned shell c-gzs, therefore, were about 5 percent smaller on August 1,
1 940 than a year earlier. Stocks of frozen eggs were larger by an amount
equivalent to about 7,02,000 cases of shell e3gs, or 7 percent. Combined
stocks of shell and frozen oegs on August 1 were a'-out 9 percent larger
than a year earlier an-d about 3 percent larger than the 1929-38 average hold-
ings for August 1. Cold storage holdings of all Oegs declined about season-
ally between August 1 and Septen-ber 1.

Storage stocks of shell oags in recent ynars have declined relative
to total holdings of eggs and to stocks of frozen -.Dcs. The increasing
production of eggs in the winter n.nths and the rapid expansion of the fro-
zen e-g industry l.-r--oly explain these changes.

Supplies of e.-gs available for storage in 1941 are likely to be
slightly smaller than a yuar earlier. The number that will be stored, of
course, will depend upon the financial outcome of the 1940-4 egg storage
deal, the prevailing prices during the 1941 into-storage afosan, and the
outlook for egg nrizes in general.

Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States, ani storage movement
at 26 markets

OUnited Stt-of-storage novecnt, nek ending as of 1940
Year stocks :
SAug I: St. 1. 14 21 31 pen ct. 5
: 1,000 1,000000 100 1, 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: cases cases cases cases caLes cases cases cases
Shell: :
Average :
1929-38 : g,497 7,949 115 13,4 179 190 210 243

1938 : 6,411 5,942 160 193 189 186 172 223
1939 : 7,024 6,598 89 156 208 163 201 250
1940 : 7,784 1/7,238 125 165 210

Frozen:
Average :
1929-38 ; 3,385 3.212 --- ------

1938 : 3,867 3,572 46 39 71 77 4 53
1939 : 4,125 3,884 29 37 64 74 62 64
1940 : 4,427 1/4,166 36 50 57

, 1/ Preliminary.


- 11 -







PES-45


- 12 -


Egg prices

Prices received by farmers for eggs were lover than a year earlier in
all of the first 8 months of 1940 except February. The effect on prices of
larger consumers' incomes and larger purchases by the Government compared to
a year earlier were more than offset by the effects of increased egg production.

It is expected that egg prices will rise during the remainder of 1940
and the first half of 1911 relative to those of a year earlier since consumers'
buying power probably vrill be higher than a year earlier and egg supplies are
likely to be less.

Frice per dozen received by farmers for eggs
: T Feb. :Mar. Apr .july
Year Jan. Feb. 'ar. "Apr. ay ,June -July .Aug. :Sept. Oct. :Nov. :Dec.
:Cents Cents Cents C-nts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average .
1929-3E. 24.2 20.3 17.5 16.3 16.8 I5.9 18.1 13.9 23.2 26.2 30.1 28.8

1938 :21.6 16.4 16.2 15.3 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
1339 :18.8 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.9 If-.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
1940 :18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2


TURKEYS

Reports from commercial hatcheries indicate a commercial production of
about 16 percent fewer hatchery poults in 1940 than in 13'?. V1ith the exception
of the East North Central States, all regions of the United States showed
decreases from a year earlier. The decline in the 1940 turkey production from
- year earlier, however, is likely to be considerably less than 16 percent,
since producers early in the year indicated they would buy fewer poults but
would home hatch more poults than in 1939. Preliminary reports from turkey
growers, as of July 1, indicated a reduction of only 2 percent fiom a year
earlier in the number of poults on farms. Thus turkey production in 1940 may
be the second largest on record.

Storage stocks of turkeys were reduced by about 44 million pounds
between February 1 and September 1 of tnis ye-.r compared with 18 million pounds
during the. correspondinr. months of 199 but stocks on September 1 were still
about tv-ice those of a year earlier and ..re.ro the larg.'-t on record. The effects
on prices of the larger holdings this ye-.r probably will b,. very small, however,
since the September 1 holdings were equivalent to only ae.out 4 percent of the
total 1939 production.

The effects of the slightly smalL r turkey production indicated for this
year and the higher level of consumers' incomes on prices may offset the effects
of last season's unprofitable storage de-.1 end the present large storage stocks.
Thus, prices during the lst f.-w months of 1940 when the bulk of the crop is
marketed may be about the same or sli-htly lower than in the corresponding
months of 1939. Chicken prices this fall are higher than a year earlier both







PES-45 13 -

absolutely and relative to turkey pr-ce-, c.nd supplies of chickens a.re smaller;
these f-ctors wil tend to result in in crecsd cons'urcion of fresh killed
turkeys this fall compared to th- fall of 193j.

In the 1939-40 im.rk-tin; sei5oon, prices r..-'?ivLd by- farm-.rs for turkeys
dropped very shWrply from Deccmnr 15 to J-,nuri,r 15 and continu-6d a a low
level because of th.- continued hcvyv f'-rmi rar-etings and the large storage
stocks. Although stora.,-c stocks i.i.'; b- Ps lrgce i.n early 1941 is in early 1940,
marketing of breder'" hens and.:] t!r frsh---ii]ed turk-,;s r..re expected to be
less. Since turk-:: prir's r.ili ,.e support.-d b;' highe-r consumers' incomes and
smaller suprplix-s of chict:e:.s rd competing .ts during the first' half of 1941,
prices mey aver-..ge hiiht r than tn':-y 'id year earlier.


Price per pound reciv-d by farmers for liv.. turkeys


Year Jan. :Feb. :ar. :Apr. : ''..v -June :July; :Aug. :Sept.: Cct.:Nov. :Dec.
15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 1 : 15 : 15 : 1.5 : 15 : 15 : 15 :15
:Cents Cents Cants Cents Ce.its Cents C-'i-ts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average :
1934-38: 15.8 15.7 15.4 15.3 14.6 14.0 13.9 13.8 14.6 15.5 16.9 17.6

1938 17.5 17.7 1-.2 17.0 16.4 15.6 15.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 17.1 18.4
1939 : I8.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6 11.7 14.- 14.3 15.4 15.3 16.0 15.6
1940 : 14..2 114.0 1 .7 13.5 15.2 12.' 12.9 13.4


SUPPLIES OF rOTrL I IATS

Total sl',ujht r P.,f me-t "cinj!s In t1hv Uni.t.ed Statts in 1941 is expect-
ed to be smaller then ir. i9-0. The. d-c] i:. in sl-.:ught:r of hogs is expected to
bring about mo.-:st of this r meats will be r supportin, in''i.a nic, to p,?...ltr-," n'-t r'rices during the coming
yeo r.

Meat production in th Uinit.d St-:t,2s, tot-il .nd p-r capift c:"is'umnption
of each of six kinds, dre-sse w-i.-l- bA-si, 179. i/

: : C: unit ion : Percentage
Meat : Pr,:oucti-n : Tot-l :Pr rp te: ,of total
et consumed
M: 1l. lb. ;.Uil. lb. Lb. Fet.

Beef .................: 6,901 7,049 53.7 35.2
Veal ................ ..: 934 934 7.1 4.7
Lamb and mutton ......: 874 871 C.6 4.3
Pork excludingr lard) : ,53.4 6,347 63.C 41.6
Chickens ............. 2,133 2,1462 1 .7 12.3
Turk. ys .............. 411 382 2.9 1.9
Tot l ......... 20,117 20,015 15 .6 100.0
1/ Dat'. for beefc,vel, 1-i"b vnd nutt.on, P.aid pork werr: taken from the Agricult-
"ural M.Trketing Serv-ice public .tin "Livestock, r: ..ts and 7'ool 7:.rket Statistics
-and Related Data, 1959". Dat" f',-r chickl:rs ?nd turkeys were compiled by the
. Bureau of Agricultural Econo..ics fr-tr Ag;ricult.irrl Mark,'ting Service data.









DOIIESTIC DEMAND

C- nditions affecting th' domr.stic demand for farm products are expected
to impr:'ve moderately during th:- r-.,-iinder cf 19410. Th.-e index of industrial
activity, which heas rmovi-d sidvrrise during rcst of the sLum Ier, apparently is
resumir', the advanje which between Anri. a2nd June carried the new Fed'ir.al
Reserve inde:: of prodicti:n up fr:m 111 to 121 p-rc-ent of tri.e 1935-39 average.
The inc pr of industrial w.-rkers, as us.l., 1A.ggFd behind the changes in
industrial output and has not adv'ncesd as rnlpidly since April as has industrial
activity y. I vertheless, reports irdic-at- that the rise in co'.nsuners' incomes
cortirue-., after June despite th.- pause in manufacturing opera-tions. Further
gains in th. purchasing power o:f conEsucrs are in prospect, ind by the end of
this :,ye'qr in-ustri 1l varl-ers' inc-mes nay be. rc'.ound th.- post-depression peak
reach,-,d in 1 .37, .:r ab.:ut the avcerv.,c for the 1924-2'2 perl-,d. Incomes of
consumers prbabhl v li he well maiintairi.-d at lea:t through the first half of
1941.

Index numbers ncf nonagriculTuiiral incOime
(19'21-29 = 100, adjusted for seas :.nal vari ati.nn)
R,'v s5 .r.s -s -.f September, 1'A40


Year Jrn. F--b." Mr." Apr. Iay June J;jul Au-, Sept. Oct." Nov. Dec.;
: :

Aver ae
1929-58: 3 -1.9 8,.6 84..9 84.5 -1.0 85.1 -.3 85.7 83.7 83.4 83.8 :

1933 : 8.0 87.6 87.4 86.5 85.9 85.6 85.7 87.5 38.0 88.5 89.5 90.6
1939 90.6 90.9 91.3 90.0 90.8 92.1 91.8 93.3 935.3 95.0 95.9 97.1
1910 : 96.9 96.2 96.9 95.3 96.4 97.4 1/9 .5

1/ Prelirin'.ry.

L'LPOT DEMAND

The effect of developments in f.oreimn cour-tries on th:- d.nmestic poultry
industry are expected to be limited largely t1 t'e Indirect affects which may
come from increased industrial activity .anli '-,n -ilcreSs'd domestic cnsu er
demand for poultry products.

-t.reign trade in some classes of poultry r,.nd e.: prc,,ets may be in-
creaced considerably over the levels of recent ..:r:. Fo:r p-ultry and eggs as
9a 'h.ie, however, foreign trade is not expnct.-d t:,o mount t. more than a few
perct-nt :.f our domestic production. Thus it is unlikely that changes in the
fore-ign trade situation will materially affect i.:m.stic prices of poultry
products.

Exp-rts- of c,,-rs during .the first half .: f 19-40 wr re ab_,.t d.-)uble those
f -e-:'r earlier but still 6r-iCuted to only .ne-f.ourth :- -, e percent of our
domestic prciLuJti.rn for trih t period. .it!. t e :, cpti.on :'f .-riud yelks, im-
ports :-f all fc.rms of ej,;s into th United Stittes during Jan'-!"y-July 1940, .:
were c-rnside r bly sn.1 ler than a year earlier.

1'.i

E""'. ,


PES-45


- 14 -







- lb -


INDEX OF SPECIAL ST'BJECTS DISCUSSED li THE
POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION


Subject

Poultry aid E gg outlook f.r 1941 ................

Chick Hatchery Survey, 1937-38 ..................

Foreoaot ,.f :iumb.r cf layers on farms in
Janu -ry 1941 ..............................

A comparis :n of f'ur feed-egg rati:,s ............

Changes in methrd -.f rep-rting egg pr ductirn crd
nu.-bcr of layers .........................

Estimated storage mn rgin on shell s gg- pEr Aczen,
average 1916-35 an' 19265-34, a.nuni 1935-3."

1916-37 ..................................

Change in official inJex cf seas .,il variati n
of ft-ar r -a prices .......................

Feed-ecg r-..tic defined ..........................

Effects of the Wlorld 17'r nr. possible .rfectc: :of
th. present vwar ............... ...........

Lone-tinr- fact:.rs in the} chicken and .gs outlook

Long-time factors in the turkey outl.ol: .........

Prodlicti' o of p iultry feed grains and Ii:,vemb'r
fe .d-egg rrtio ...........................


Pages



11-13


7

10-13


Is sue

This i:su-

AuLgu t 1940


July 1,

t-ia- i,


1940

1940


7 April 2, 1940


11-12

9


9

10-11


4-7

13-14

20-2?


March 2,

Februiary,


February

December


I.,v-?i:iber

11-. vmber
i -.vembe r

ilJ.venb -r


1940

1, 1938


2, 1940

1, 1939


10, 1939

10, 1939

10, 1939


September 1, 1939


PES-45




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
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