Poultry and egg situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
July 1940
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00050

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text




THE



IT U ACTION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-43 JULY 1, 1940


CHICKS AND YOUNG CHICKENS PER FARM FLOCK
ON JUNE 1.1927-40


NUMBER
PER FLOCK


120


d 1 0EIIIITMEhl 0r GR-CdL'UAiE


MEG ]-O O E BUREAU Or AGRICuLILRAL. ECONOMICS


AVERAGE NUMBER OF LAYERS ON FARMS DURING JANUARY. 1928-40
NUMBER
( MILLIONS I

380


360


340 -


320


300
1928 193
U 5 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 3a441 BUREAUOr AGRICULTURE* ECONOMICS


THE PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF CHICKS AND YOUNG CHICKENS PER
FARM FLOCK ON JUNE I USUALLY IS FOLLOWED BY A SMALLER PERCENTAGE CHANGE
IN THE NUMBER OF LAYERS ON FARMS THE FOLLOWING JANUARY. ON THE BASIS OF
PAST RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THESE TWO NUMBERS, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
NUMBER OF LAYERS ON FARMS NEXT JANUARY WILL BE WITHIN THE RANGE INDICATED
IN THE LOWER CHART, IN VIEW OF THE 12 PERCENT REDUCTION IN THE NUMBER OF
YOUNG STOCK ON JUNE I OF THIS YEAR.


In


( : *:.E:: .' : *': '

*!., ii~ ,.. : ..
h.:





"A
H E.;c'.:'" :


". .., ." .
". '.;*:.: ,,,:: .


. ..





L.,. .. ;..


] :**.....
'C I::

Y... :










THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
EGGS | |I I PERCENT [ 1 -
( DOZENS N CHICAGO FEED- L NONAGRICULTURAL INCO
8 -- I ~\ ,-. n ru --- I ..... .


7



6



5



4
CASES
( THOUSANDS

500


400


300


200


100


0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS I
30


25


20


15


10


[ I -Average 1929-38
0 L I I... I, I, I .... 1 ....LL....h
JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A.M.S. DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
*INDEX NUMBBRS.ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

MNES 38440 BUREAUOF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I







PES-13


THE POULT RY AI:D EGG S ITUAT I 0


Summary

The number of layers on farms in Janur.:ry 1941 will be from 3 to

S percent less than in January-i of this ye:.'. This conclusion is based on

the fact that the 1940 hatch is substantially smaller than the hatch of

last year and flocks are now being culled at a normal rate. With egg pro-

duction e:.-pected to be smaller in the last half of this Year than a .year

earlier and privately held stor-.e stocks of e.s about the s:nme as a

year earlier, smaller supplis of ,gf. are in pror-pect for the last half

of this year than in the same period of 1939.

Stora.-e operations for both shell and. frozen ags :-T, off to a

comp. .r- tively li,.te start this .:ca..n because of roelatuive.y hiit-h prices

and uncertain a;- quality occasioned by co-ntinu,: cold athr. Eut tho

accel..erated into-stcrang- mov-..mr.t during reccnt wrk. has ma.i tot-al

storage stocks of o.cs, incluiinz Fcdcrnl Surluvs Co;anroditi Cs Cro r'oration

holdings, somewhat l.r r thin year c.rli,:r.

Prices of farm rronucts c' :r,.1l.- declined during 1-i.t May and early

Juno, andI whole.sale price. Acicli.:cd with them. Thc decline irn the price re-

coived by far.jmers for es- from micd-.IHay to nil-Junc wS.3 greater than the de-

cline in the same period of 1939. However, ags prices probably will rise

during coming months relative to prices a ycqr earlier.

Market ir.s of poultry during : recent vwooks compared with y -e r earlier

probably included a sTi- ller proportion of young stock than at the same time

in 1939. The number of layers -',,d of turkey brooder hons on farms this

year was larger than a yc-.r -.rli er, but production of baby chicks during


- 3 -





P-S-"3 4 -

the irt icrt ..'? .his ye-r -- n-ciirdl' l-s th a n. the smne months

of '.9. Storr.. stocks of y-un; cldic-kens on Jrue 1 were smaller th n a

year .:11 ?r, but s'oc.:s f t ., rc r.uch larger a-.d stocks of fowl

wer? rbout the sCr s ".s rn Jiunr 1 1-.-.t -;'ar.

7Th: sin'.!lr "''ti of" bh c&:ick..rs .nd t'-rkc.ys thi.n ;y'-r probably

will ro--- th-n a .: c t-. the pr....t l''r: stocl-s cf 'il prj.lt-ry, .n. total

sur-,lis ':f ''.lt.' r.e".'1 r t l...- t '. alf of t-ha- yeza"' 2-' ero ctod to be

loss :.nrn i.i +h: i:.t '.-.If of "'l., Th?"is Till r.rve Ftr.-'r.,tLerni in-

flu .... : 2.11 pc'.lrr price. z 'i-rkcy : ric.-s n-y- bc '-f-.ctcd aversely

by 1-.-t s,.n-un'. nf.vrblo :te'?".2 d-al.

.77. cast '_. cortti.-uo hi w_ th:,n year o.rl-. atr far: the .oet foew

months.

-S :5 .- .TIO

The cr -1 -", '-coultr7' f-', b .-i c:-, Chic e-' uoric-' n.-_ hi:; r th--n
a yc- -ri'-: d.riL.-- -11 of th: fir:;. ._.lf of i'O -r. .-L:r-.--: the high-
est sice- t.-. fi:'-t If cf 1 7. -s 2r-lt, the rxcz:: of z- 's required
to b1- ICO ;ouz:z: of r -.t:'ry ". ,: .t :.t r.-rkct .2.s ,3_: r--:r thn n a year
earli: r d r-.. mc.t ]f 't-he ti:,. -i..:' Ju rn-r,, rf tif s ",.:1'r c-:" :. -h
0Ch c'50.o C-- .c..e : .... -r i 'hI-'" t-:-n 'turn.z t"- fil St h-.f ,:f 1939.

dc-c: d-..:.:i.e in the fc'i:d.--'_ r.ti- during 1 r:ccr-t 7-. :ks, L-s shown in
the ., 't i.: f_."-- 1 ,n-. in th-c f:i "cir.- t2.ble, is '.C res-lt Of declin-
in1 f. : fC".'.- th' rn--'ke. E c vric: h...- rn. t yet bjcu- their seasoln-
a1 ir:cr-.:.seI. .-- I';d-- r i. r il, ":i --.:, iay cor.;ir.ue to be loss favorable
to pn,'zltr;,- -.r:u':cr t _..:. --r r for the re::at fi orths.

: xl- r:.tio t Cai -:--o

(D-2. ": ..rc r.eqir:!. ti" c' I'? oc-'r.ds cf .<ry ration)

c_____g___"._,.-7-:e_ .c.ci'.. c 0I-O
Yoe.r Jl: 1 : ` Ju1- : Spot.:Dec.
____ : _._ : .'*2. : 1 : S : "0 : 22 : 2 : 6 : 1 : 0 : 2S : 28
: D-'. D.. Dozr. D)o *-. D :. Do'. De z. Dcz. D. z. L z. D)z. Doz.
Av.
1929-53: .60 o.O0 6.92 6.7n 6.6. .:-; 6.79 6.u4 6.9? 6.75 5.49 .454

193 : '1.7 5.41 C. I 5.57 5.77 5c 5.50 5.3,3 5.31 3.0 4.10 4.31
199 : -..' 7.21 7.45 7. IL (.-C 6.70 6.71 6.61 .37 6.c 0.39 6.62
1940 : 7,f9 7.92 7.32 7.32 7.-7 7.74








FES-43 5 -

HATCH WINGS

The increased ur-favo:rablcness of the feed-egg ratio as the hatching
season progressed this year largely accounts for the much smaller hatch to
date as compared with a year earlier. Commercial production of bsby chicks
from January through .ay of this year was 14 percent smaller than in the same
months of 1939. Increa-es in the hatch over a yecr earlier may occur in scme
months in the last half of this y.or, tut the demand f'or these chicks will
come mainly from cornimerci.l broil-r producers, an outlet accounting for a
relatively small part of the ye zr's total hatch.

The number of chicks and young chicker.s in farri flocks on Juno 1 of
this yacr was 12 percent less than a y"oar c--.rlicr.

During the S months ended v.ith D'.:y of this year cmm-.ercial hatcheries
produced 10 percent fowcr turkey peults than a ye.Cr earlier. The decline in
total turkey production from a year :.:.rli;r, hovjrv.r, may be less than this,
depending upon '.hcth.r producers ha'v:- carried out their February intentional to
homo hatch : larger rnurnbr cf poults this ye:.r than in 1939.

Average number of chicks and younc chickens per f-:rm flock


Year i ny 1 Jun: 1 July 1

S Thuber number I-?unbc r

Averaeo
1929-58 : 88.0 131.6 134.9

1937 62.4 117.8 117.4
1938 : 4.5 1,1.7 132.6
1959 : 9.6 115.2 136.0
1940 :1.4 119.5



Poultry marketings

Receipts of dressed poultry, which ha-'Vo av.raTcd about the sano as a
year earlier during recent weeks, probably include 2. smaller proportion of
young chickens than in the same weeks of 1939. This is a joint result of theo
smaller hatch this spring th-n last, turkey breeder hens :.s numerous as in the
spring of 1939, and a somuwhs.t larger number of fowl on fa-,rms this spring than
a year earlier. Young stock vill continue to account for a smaller proportion
of poultry receipts, and wmvkly markotings of all poultry are expected to aver-
age smaller during the la.t e months of this year than a year earlier, both
probabilities reflecting the smz.llcr ht.tch of both chickens and turkeys this
year than in 1939.







PES-43 6 -

-,: do'-,sn,: d poultry .t four markets
(he'.. frk, C-.ic:.go, Philadelphia, Boston)

: Z":,': -nding ,s of 1940
Yc ar : !.:, ___ Jur.. :_ Jiuly : Aug.
S : 8 5 22 : 29 : : 31
S ,'0 1000 1 ,C 1, O 1,0C 1,'C0 1,000 l,CO 1,0.0 1,000
: p-.unds pounds pounds pO s '.ds p.:unds pounds o :tur.dc pounds pounds
Avc raer :
1929-3: .5 ,29 4,7 ,477 C 5,117 5,510 4,643 4,795 5,370

1935 : 6,.311 ,e 5,174 .,054 '5 ,2-C 5,49 675 5,304 5,005
.193.- 5, '? e,'-.8 6,82-. 6, 53 6,515 3,159 J,357 6,500 6,081
19-10 : ,, 71 .?,2?2 6,60 t, 21 1, 6 4


'r-iitr t ., st r -c;

.. f r all lt ry in the Un-ited St.tcats decroacod less than
scron"ll-,- duri -:.', .'d r-.-r a for th: 26 mark-ts indici-o a nut increase
in st,:. :.;. din:A r:.- c:.rl-- v: -Ks of Jun. This r.:t int-st-orago move-
mcnt pr.-b::.y i Lcgc- du t. in.:':-:.a.-d r--:-rke -ins :f tur::oy brooding hons
a-.d foil (-'.tr: l ";, Alti -u h st rc ldi s. r :a, c ::-tiruc larger than a
v.' ar rli .r f.-.r :- r-- 1 :or.th .n...:.t. r. r.ai in- ir. stor':.g at th-; nd of
1940 r.: r :r..ct: t. 1::: -h:.:-. :. :-.a --:.rli:r b.:caus': .:.f tih: smaller hatch
of bth ch rL:.._ n- :nd tou-l:.--- t:iA -- -r cc-.rr-.d .:ith 1939.

Stc.-::..g e'ct fc ..r ulitr az a o .mar!:.:t

S';ek ensdi n as of 1i9-._
: .t,,r:e : : Storage
Year : t,.,.-ks : Et .-.:- m:v,.n t, ,.n- 1: stocks
: 1._" 25 : i : 8 : 15 29 : June 29
S 1, : 1,00 1,'- 1,o0r, 1 _, 1 iC 1,000
F -.r.is .iOntds c.our.js pounds oounds pounds pounds
Average :
1929-8 -1,41 -1,4.3 41? 14 174 35,279

1959 47,57 + 327 + 563 42 + 50. 758 48,248
1940 : E,77 72: + 5G ,04 +1,6,7.4


Poultry prices

The increase since January in the average rice received by farmers for
chickens was more than seasonal, but the June 15 price of 13.3 cents was slight
ly below the price of a year earlier and was about 2 cents b :.ow the 10-year
average >-r tht date. The smaller storage stocks of most classes of chickens
'and th- sm.alicr h.tch this year compared with la.t are expected to bring about
higher a'-er'-., chicken prices to farmers during the r.:.mainder of 1940.









The losses to storage operators as a result of the unfavorable turkey
storage deal of the past season and the large stocks of turkeys now in storage
will be factors tending to affect adversely the average price received by
farmers for turkeys this coming fall.

S- Price per pound received by farmers for chickens

Year Jan.: Feb.: Mar.- Apr.. May : June: July: Au,. :Sept.: Oct.: Iov.: Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 1 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 1
:Cents Conts Cents Cents Cents Cents Centnts Cents Cents Cents Cents Conts
Average:
1929-38: 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.9 15.2 14.6 14.1 13.6

1938 : 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.8 12.9 13,6 16.5


ITumber of layers on firms

f .. The number of layers on farms reaches a pre :-. in January and then dc-
S,. lines gradually until the following August, as indicated in the following
table and in the chart in figure 1. Since a large proportion of the layers are
: replaced during the fall and ,early winter by y'ung stock from the current
year's hatching, it is possible tc forecast the. number of layers on farms in
.. o.ach January on the basis of the number of chicks and young chickens in farm
flocks on the preceding June 1.

The two charts on the cover page indicate the general relationship be-
tween these two series in past years, and figure 2 indicates more specifically
the percentage change from the preceding yea-r in the number of layers in
January that can be expected from a given percentage change from the preceding
years in the number of chicks and young chickens in farm flocks on the preced-
ing June 1. On the basis of this relationship in past yeCars and the 12 percent
fewer chicks and young chickens in farm flocks on June 1, from 3 to 8 percent
fewer layers may be expected on f:.rms in January 1941 than a year earlier. This
range is indica.-ted in the lower chart on the cover pago of this report.

The decline in the number of lay,'rs on forms from now until the low
point is reached in August probably will be ci'only seascnal, but the increase
thereafter will tend to be less than seasonal on account of the smaller number
of young stock available for replacements.

The number of hens and pullets on farms in January reached a record high
S figure in 1928. This was followvod by o. definite downward trend until 1935.
Since the latter year there appears to have been sont leveling off of numbers
and a general tendency for 2 years' increase in numbers to be followed by 1
year of decline in numbers.


- 7 -


PES-43












OJ
_j
U
0
z
0




o

U,
0
lal


0
CI


















LI
U
0
z













-2



z

0



w

inC

-JL


0 I I I Io
I I 1 1 7


!-
z

IL
a-






[lumber of layers on farms, United States

Year Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: MayI June: July: Aug. :Sert.: Oct. HNov. Dec.
: Miil- Iil- il- HiI- ilil- IIil Idil- lil- l.il- Til- liil- Mil-
:lions lio.s lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions lions
Average:
192-33: 335 3238 1S 3024 3? 270 256 250 259 230 303 325


301 292 2?3 262
316 306 292 276
327 318 304 2.9


214 236 231 24.5 269 293 314
2 0 246 212 253 279 305 326


Egg production

Since the seasonal variation in the rate of eg' production per hen is
several times greater thar the seasonal variation in th.e- number of layers on
farms, changes from month to month in the total nrLber of eg5-s produced in
the United States are brought about largely by chang-es in the rate of lay.
Deviations from the usual seasonal pattern of monthly e' production, ho.i-
ever, are influenced bote, by cianres in numbers of layers a d by changes in
the rate of lay. Year-to-year changes in the latter are largely a result of
changes in feedin- practices and c'.Ln-:es in weather conditions.

With the expected smaller nur,mber of layers during the latter -,art of
the year, egg production in the last haLf of 10i0 may be less than a year
earlier. In late 1939 the uea her ..as unusually mild less favorable
weather in late 192,0 also would tend to curtail me7 production. Production
in the first half of this ,-year was larger than during the first 6 months of
1939.

Total far,,- pro,.j.ct ion of e_'s, United States


Jan. Feb.: Lar. Apr.
c, : *


!:v ': June J'l- Au-. Seot. Oct.; Hov.: Dec.


: LIil. i l. R!il. il. ;'ii i4il. Mil. Alil. il1: il. Mil. Mil.
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average:
1929-38: 5.9 7.9 12.5 11.1 13.3 10.6 7.0 7.7 6.4 5.2 4.0 4.4

1938 :6.7 8.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5.5
1939 : 7.2 &.5 12.6 13.8 13.0 10.6 9.1 7.0 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 3.2 12.7 14.0 13.7


Average num-be," of e -s pro,:uced per layer. United States


. Yeai


Jan.: Feb.: Liar.


': ,To. P'o.
average:
929-38: 6.3 .6

1938 : 7.9 C.9
S1939 : 8.0 9.7
S940 : 7.2 9.0


: Apr. : ,ay : June July : AuT. :Sept. Oct.: Hov. Dec.
* : :


o. No. C. 1 o. l!o. Io. o. o. "o.


14.2 16.6


15.4
14.9
14.4


17.5
17.0
16.5


16.7 14.2


17.3.
17.0
17.0


12.7 11.1 8.9 6.7 L.8 5.0


14.9 13.6 11. 9.A 7.5
14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.4


1938
1939
1940


: 307C
: 322
: 332


5.9 6.4
6.0 6.8


PES-43


- 9 -


1,




PES- 10 I

Egg storage

The i- Lo-storzse movement for brth shell and frozen eggs got off to a
comprar-.ti"7ly l-ate start at thz ber' .i. of this storage season, largely be-
cause of r-litiel,- hi.h rIicc a.. a .certain egg quality following the severe
Janu.ry-Februrry cold spell. The int,-stora'e movement since about April 1,
however, h's toe:: hc-vier than usunl, and total U-itad States stocks on June 1,
including F 3S.C.C. holdings, were l,.r,.er than a year earlier for the first time
during' the current stori-ng s.so:,. Although the volume ;f privately owned
shell eggs i., stor--e (i.e., cxciui-n- F.S.C.C. holdings) was smaller than a
year earli--r, the qvra-itities of froza:, eggs were larger, a-d the two combined
made t-:tal -rivatel;, owned stoc's iLe.rly th' sane as a year ca.rlier.

Stocks of cegs oprDbrbl': will c;':.tinue to accumulate at about the seasonal
ra.e until tho3 us-zail an-mual poJ: is r-ached on 2Aug,.st 1; the rate of decline
thereafter m;' "be greater tiuan. y;.r c.irliir, since production is likely to be
less thCLna in the same months of 1)39.

Szorz-e stocks o' eggs ct twer.ty-six narknts

Wec eiudi_ ac of 1940
:St-.rae : Into-= Ye ar
: st-ck : 1 F 15 22 29 : stocks
: .____. 5 : __ __: : June 29
:1,0.0 1,000 1,CD) 1,000 1,0000 1,000 1,000
: e-ses c:ses c-.ses cases cases cases cases
Shell


3,752
3.712


353

33.3
323


297

2797
377


Frozen :
q939 : 1,S34 102 112
190 : 1,79 157 131


241

249
3K1


117
16S


195

156
257


109
141


142 5,583

1oO ,3r5



71 2,345


Egg prices

Lower eg- prices t.: iate i.: 19)- compared with a ;ertr earlier are
chiefly due to,: lrrer sup-lies rsi.,'- consumer purchasing pwer h-as been main-
tainci :t r. :clatively hi.Lh level si .ce the fall of 193J. However, egg prices
during the r'%.aind.'- of 1- 40 rn,- tcnd to rise rele-tive t-o prices a year earlier.
Total su-:.11 -r *li':ely to ce, s:::.ller :-.d consumers' incomes are expected to
be at IchYt as large as i:: tne lst half of 1939.

Price p-r dozen received by farmers for eggs


:Jan. :Feb. :U;ar. : Apr. : May : J-us : July : Aug. :Sept.
ear : 15 : 1 5 : 15 : 1 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15


:Ce:itsCe.ltsCc-ts Cents Cents Cent s Cents Cents Cents


L-verage:
.929-38:24.2 20.3 17.3


:21.6
:1C.8
1 .t


16.4 16.2
16.7 16.0
20l 2 1R 11


16.S 16.3 16,r5


15.9
15.5
' I :


17.6
15.2
1 F I


18.2
i1 L


: Oct.: Nov.: Dec,
: 15 : 15 : 1
uents Uents enMs


18.1 19.9 23.2 26.2 30.1 28.8

19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9:
16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20..5:


Aver-ae, :
1929-3s : 4,350


1939 :
1940 :


i .
" J ._ .. l 'r s -. #, .r. .'- T.. i, ,







PES-43


- 11 -


SDC)G.STIC LE1.LEUTD

Consumers' incomes did not decline nePrly as much as industrial pro-
duction from the high point reached last Deceuoer to May of this y:ear. Hence,
the improvement in consumer buying pour duri- the next several months nay
be correspondingly less than the incr-.se in industrial activity which began
in May. Consumers' purchasing pow r, however probably will continue above
the level of a .yc-:r earlier for th.. next several months, since the present
level is several points above that of a yo.r earlier. The sudden pick-up of
steel output is mainly responsible for the sharp rise in the index of indus-
trial activity to d*ite.

Index numbers of non:.ricuiltural income

(192h-29 100, adjusted for seasonal variation)

Year Jan., Feb. Iar.. Amr. : May :June, July: Aug.Secpt.. Oct.. ITov. Dec.
Average
*929-38 8: 5.2 55.1 35.-4 5.0 g4.3 35.4 -1.7 P4.7 S4.4 S4.5 84.2 s4.1

1938 : s.9 8s.1 7.9 c7.o0 6.1 86.1 C6.2 8s.0 83.3 89.0 89.8 90.3
1939 90.6 90.6 91.1 O90.1 90.5 91.7 91.3 93.1 93.4 95.4 96.1 96.6
1940 96.4 95.4 95.0 94.0






- 12 -


IE:DX OF SPECIAL SUFPJCTS DISCUSSED fH THE
PC'UL'RY '.jT) G-G SITUATIOiI


Subje ct

Forecast of number of layers on f .r-s in
J-0at r7- I 1 ?'41 ..........................

A comparison of four feed-egi ratios ............

Special outlook reort for turk:e;s ..............

Changes in method of reporting egg production
and nu-tc6r of l.-rcrs .........................

Forecast of 19:)40 hntchin-s nrid chicks -.nd
young chicks on ua-.rins, June 1, 19qCO ... ........

Estimated storage- m-rgin on shell ezjs per
dozen, v-er-ge 1916-35 nd 1925-34, rnnur.1
1935-39 ...... .................................

1916-37 .......................................

Change in official inde: of szeAonal -:"rintion
of fcrm og prices ...........................

?eed-egg ritio defined ..........................

Nonagricultur-.l income index revised, by
months, 1929-5? ...................... ......

Effects of the orldi War "nd possible effects
of tie Tr sent rnr ..........................

Long-ti; e factors in the chicken -.rid re
outlook ...................... .............

Long-tiTr.e f-ctors in the turkey outlook- .........

Production of poultry feed grains "nd Novomber
feWd-:gr" r-t io .... .............. .......... .


7

10-13

12-14


7


5-6



11-12

9


9

10-11


11-12


4-7


13-14

20-22


Issue


This issue

m.sy 1, 1940

April 2, 1940


April 2, 1940


March 2, 1940


March 2,

February


Fe b rua:ry

December


1940

1, 1938


1940

1939


December 4, 1939


ITovcmber 10, 1939


November 10, 1939

yIovembcr 10, 1939


Saptenber 1, 1939


PES-43


UNIVERSiTV OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08904 0413