Poultry and egg situation

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Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
January 1940
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00044

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

PES-36 DECEMBER 4, 1939



THE P O ULTR Y AND EG G S I TUATI O N


FEED-EGG RATIO AT CHICAGO, 1925 TO DATE


U. & DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 32471 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


CHICKS AND YOUNG CHICKENS PER
ON JUNE 1, 1927-39
NUMBER
PER FLOCK


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


FARM FLOCK


NEG. 31505 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


THE FEED-EGG RATIO MEASURES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FEED COSTS
AND EGG PRICES. WHEN THE FEED-EGG RATIO IS HIGH, FEED COSTS ARE HIGH
AND THE SITUATION IS RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE TO THE PRODUCER OF EGGS.
SINCE SEPTEMBER THE FEED-EGG RATIO HAS BEEN ABOVE BOTH LAST TEAR'S
RATIO AND THE 10-YEAR AVERAGE. THIS SAME UNFAVORABLE SITUATION IS EX-
PECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE REMAINDER OF 1939 AND EARLY 1940. AS A
RESULT, HATCHINGS IN 1940 ARE EXPECTED TO BE SMALLER THAN IN 1939.










THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
NUMBER I I I I PERCENT I I I


80



70



60


50
CENTS
PER
POUND
18

17

16

15

14

13
NUMBER


40



30



20


I I I
FARM PRICE OF TURKEYS

1- 939

1938 /






Average
1934-38


EGG PRODUCTION PER FLOCK"




-


- r1938 -

/4


".. Average
1928-37
I I I


1>:


--i L -I


CENTS
PER
POUND

18


16


14



12
CENTS
PER
DOZEN
30


25


20


15


10


JAN. APR. JULY OCT. JAN.
*INDEX NUMBERS. ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 35664


APR JULY OCT.
4 ON 1ST DAY OF MONTH
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


-1939-







PES-36 3 -

THE POULTRY AND EG G SITUATI ON


Summary

Market receipts of dressed poultry have been increasing seasonally to

take care of the holiday demand. The into-storage movement for poultry is

now well under way, and stocks at the 26 major storinEg cities on November 25

were 6 percent larger than at the same time last year. Suoplies of poultry

during the remainder of 1939 and early 1940 will continue larger than in the

corresponding -period of the 1938-39 marketing season.

Receipts of eggs have about reached thi-7 low point for the year. The

out-of-storage movement of shell eggs during o c.tst 2 months has been

materially above that of the corresponding 2 months of last year. As a re-

sult, stocks of shell eggs at 26 cities on November 25 were only 1 percent

above a year earlier as compared with 10 percent above on September 16. The

out-of-storage movement of frozen eggs has been about coual to that of last

year. Stocks on November 25 were 17 percent above a year earlier.

Feed costs in relation to egg prices continue above both a year earlier

and the 10-year average. During the first half of 1940 the feed-egg ratio

is expected to average higher than in the first half of 1939.

Prices received by farmers for chickens and eggs are following their

usual seasonal movements, but on November 15 they continued well below both a

year earlier and the 1928-37 November average. The effect of larger supplies

on prices during the first half of 1940 will be at least partly offset by the

effect of larger consumer incomes as compared with the same period in 1939.

The farm price of turkeys on November 15 was about 1 cent per pound above

the price on October 15 but was 1 cent below the -price on November 15, 1938.






PES-36


The seasonal increase in the number of layers Per fqrm flock from

August 1 to November 1 was greater this year than either last ye1.r's or

the 1928-37 average increase. Laying flocks on November 1 this year were

4 percent larger than a year earlier and the largest for November 1 since

1930.

As a result of the expected less favorable feed-egg ratio, hatchings

in 1940 may be smaller than in 1939.


: Note: An explanation of how :
: the f.ed-egg ratio is deter- :
: mined is piven on page 10 of :
: this Poultry and Egg Situation.:

POULTRY SIT-ATION

Poultry marketing

Receipts of dressed poultry at the four rrinciral markets have been in-
creasing seasonally to take care of the holiday demands. Receipts during the
remainder of 1939 and early 1940 will continue larger than in the corresnond-
ing period of the 1938-39 marketing season because of the larger nunbcr of
hens and chickens on hand and the larg- increase in turkey Production. Re-
ceipts in the latter half of 1940 may be somewhat smaller than in 1939 because
of the expected smaller hatchi:t.,

Receipts of dressed poultry at 4 m:,rkets
(Now York, Chicago, Philade lrhi-, Boston)

___ __ Week .ndin.g s of 1i39
Year : Jan. : Oct. : Iov. : Dec.
28 : 21 : 28 : 4 :11 18 2 : 5 : 2 : 9
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb.
Av.,rage
1928-37 : 6,252 7.366 7,479 7,597 8,485 12,841 28,5385 15,627 9,754

1938 : 3,814 8,558 8,817 8,855 9,515 33,364 17,101 8,596 10,217
1939 : 6,020 7,733 8,438 9,470 11,741 28,200 2-,999


Poultry storage

Storage stocks of frozen poultry are now increasing seasonally. Stocks
at the 26 major storing cities on November 25 were 6 percent above the corres-
ponding week last year and 24 percent above the 1928-37 average. During the


- 4-









PEs-36 5-

4 weeks .ndin, November 25, the into-storage movement was 18 percent above a
year earlier arid S4 percent above the 10-year average.

The net into-storage movement during the period of accumulations from
September to January is expected to exceed that of a year earlier but to be
smaller than the movement in 1936 when the severe drought forced the sale of
large numbers of hens and chickens. Thus, storage stocks on January 1, 1940,
are expected to be larger than on the same date in 1939 but smaller than the
record hi.h stocks of January 1, 1937.

Storage stocks of frozen poultry at 26 markets

:__ __" ending as of 1939 _
Year : Storage : Into-storage movement, NJovember : Storage
: stocks : : 18 25 : stocks
: Oct. 28 : 1: 2 : Nov. 25
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pouddss -ound s pounds pounds
Average
1928-37 : 48,698 3,235 3,544 4,o4g 6,159 65,6g4

1936 : 70,660 4,704 4,676 5,536 8,995 94,571
1937 55,136 4,353 5,356 3,693 6,083 74,621
1938 : 54,344 3,586 3,593 5,814 9,144 76,4gi
1939 : 54,948 4,740 6,629 5,392 9,456 81,165


Chicken prices

Prices received by farmers for chickens on November 15 were over 1 cent
per pound below prices on the same date last year and 2- cents below the
1128-37 average for November 15. The seasonal decline in prices since A-ril 15
has been somewhat less than occurred last year but somnrhat greater than the
10-year average.

The effect on prices of larger surnlies of poultry during the first half
of 1940 as comn-arud with a year earlier will be at least -artly offset by
larger consumers' income. During the latter part of 1940, smaller supplies and
larger consumers' incomes are expected to result in considerable improvement
in chicken prices as compared with a year earlier.

Price per oound received by farmers for chickens

Yre_ :Jan. : Feb. : Apr. : June : Aug. : Sept. : Oct. : Nov. : Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average :
1928-37 : 15.1 15.4 16.4 16.1 15.7 16.0 15.4 14.9 14.4

1 -' : 16.7 16.0 16.2 15.7 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 14.0 14.2 14.4 13.4 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4









PES-36


Fall and winter broilers

Peprrts from 68 commercial hatcheries, located in the States along the
Atlantic Seaboard and in certain .-iidwestern States where the production of fall
and early winter broilers is an important industry, show a hatch 1 percent
larger for October than the record high hatch of October, 1938. In Mew England
a marked decrease of 29 percent compared with a year earlier was reported,
whereas in the riddle western n States there was an increase of 32 percent. The
difference between these two areas may be explained in part by the rise in feed
prices earlier in the fall and the fact that mmst I'ewv England producers pur-
chase shi.-ped-in feed wvherees most Fiddle Western producers have abundant
available asuppli-s of locally-grov.-n feed.

Turkey prices

Prices received by farmers for turkeys increased 0.7 cents between
October 15 and li-veTLber 15, Thi.i increase was about the same as that for the
corresponding period last ','ear but lcss than the 1928-37 average increase.
Prices con i'ovcember 15 vcre r-r'. than 1 cent per round below a year earlier and
almost C. cents belaw the 1928-37 average for N:o'/ember 15.

Price per pound reci,_ed by farenors for turkeys


Year Oct. 15 Iur-. 1E Dec. 15 Jan. 15

S C- r.ts Cents Cents Cents

Average
19'28-37 17.9 l4.9 1.5 18.1

1937-38 : 1.7 17.9 18.0 17.5
1938-39 16.5 17.1 1;7.4 18.3
193 -40 15.3 16.0


EGG SITUATION

Laying flock size

The average size of laying flocks on I'ov.Tmbcr 1 was 4 percent larger
than a year earlier and 2 percent above the 1928-37 average. This year laying
flocks were larger than they have been for any other I'ovcmber 1 since 1930.

The seasonal increase in numbers of layers per fr.rm flock from August 1
to November 1 has been 14 birds this year cormiarcd with 13 last year and the
10-year average: seasonal increase for that period of 1'D birds.


- 6 -







PES-36


Average number of laying hens per farm flock
on the first day of the month


Year Jan. Feb. May Aug. Spt. Oct. Nov. De c.

: Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Iumber
Average
1928-37 86.0 85.1 75.1 64.2 63.5 68.6 73.8 79.8

1937 84.2 82.5 73.1 62.1 59.9 64.3 69.3 74.4
1938 77.6 78,3 68.6 59.3 59.8 65.6 72.5 78.0
1939 : 82.8 82.0 72.2 61.3 62.1 68,0 75.6


Egg production

The rate of egg production per layer continues slightly below that of a
year earlier, as has been the case in every month of 1939 except January and
September, when production per hen was higher than in 1938, Throughout the
year production has been well above the 1928-3'' average. Egg production per
hen is expected to continue above the 10-year average.

Total egg production per farm flock on November 1 was 3 percent larger
than a year earlier and 24 percent above the 10-year average. With some in-
crease indicated in the number of layers next year and no great change probable
in the rate of lay per bird, total egg production during 1940 may be slightly
larger than in 1939,

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in
farm flocks on the first day of the month


Year Jan. Feb. : May : Aug. : Sept. Oct. : Nov. o Dec.

:Number Number m.- r Number Number Number Number Number
Average
1928-37 17.9 25.0 55.5 37.1 32.7 25.5 18.1 15.2

1937 22.0 25,7 57.R 40.4 36.1 28.8 21.1 18.6
1938 22.7 32.2 58.1 41.2 35.3 28.2 22.3 19.9
1939 24.6 31.9 57.6 40.4 36.0 27.5 22.0


Egg marketing

Receipts of eggs at the four principal markets have about reached their
low point for the year. During the 4 weeks ended November 25, receipts were 9
percent above receipts a year earlier and 1 percent above the 1928-37 average
for these weeks. Receipts in 1940 may be slightly larger than in 1i39 because
of the expected larger egg production.


- 7 -







- 8 -


Rcce4.-Dt- )I e,s at fci'u- 'arkets
(?e-.- Ycrki, Ch!icago, Fh'iladel-hia, Pnstcn I

__ _k crne k dirg o:f 1?_ _____
Y:-ar : Jan Oc. : N. : -.
____ C -- 21: 3: 4- : 7: 25 : 2 ':
: 1,0(/'.' 1,C.'3 O...C 1,''G 1,O'-) i,( )" 1,(''> 1,,(0 1,100

ALr rCCge
*- 'F-37 : 212,2 I ..,"1 6.(. "24.8 11 ,9 12'2.' 125.P 116,7 130..8

11 : 22r.1 1 .:.-1 12e .] 125..- 1 ., C.0 113 136.8 130,9
Z ? '.: 29.2 117.0 ?25.4 .32..4 1 .2 17 .7 119.1


Eg sic .rge


citieF c.-i r"l-." 'ler l c c ? ;,, v :'' r,'.e s ca: 1 '. .' .-&.e" rr, stocks of
sn i l e -.zs r- c 'i- 1 -,r -er-, lair--.. tn.an : ':r ,a.-i. r, v.nile stacks ofQ
fr: :.' e:,"'n -. 17 p. : :--.., la r'- ar,

Tifj. -u-.- f-.-'- -r m- :-'nen .'- :hel. c n 'irin t. 4 1. ks on.-' d
',ovcmb r n 5 -- ? :.. .bo v. r @ .''.i '-, -a.- .i the nc T, er.:.n'i fL r
frrzmn c-L.gs ?'. a L r cT' )1m.i t e 1 :orcC (- r c i i.I ..2 .

t, ra: ctcc1z of -r '.t 2-" .L.'- Zt

S:',' -k -r.ir .; t C.5'..
:': -:':g,: : O,.,:-.:- -s ,,r.r c .:_, .-:':r.r: i .v. .m.L. r P: Stor'agc





Shell
Av e r ag e

.92 -.3'7 : 3,7E.5 3 C 5 2, 324
191t7 : 2,61F. 22 ',7 3?7 28 ,447
ca7's rc .n$:1 : ec.. i, 4ars





1939 2,7G .. .- 1 3.3 1,466

Frozen
16- : .:20 3.5 3 C 54 1,350
193' : 1,-.. 3 7" [ 7 *7 C9 1,573


Egr prices

Prices received L far:.'r-. f.- ?:cgs c'" I'ocir 'cr 15 cc-itinued over 3
certs per dozen below a year erl. :r ar.i "er E e,.-rts --1:l-w t-.e 1i28-37 average
for t',;nmter 15. In every "ear s.'r. 1N33 -g ric 's have rnac'ied a peEc in *









VIovember. Trends in wholesale eg, prices indicate that this will also be true
in 1939,

Egg supplies during the first half of 1940 may be slightly larger than
in 1939 but the effect on prices of any increase in supplies as compared with a
year earlier will be at least partly offset by increased consumers' income.
Expected smaller supplies and larger consumers' income in the latter part of
1940 should result in considerable improvement in egg prices as compared with a
year earlier.

Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs

Year: Jan. : Feb. : Apr. : June : Aug. :Sept. : Oct, : Nov. : Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1028-37 25.9 21,6 17.4 17.4 20.6 23.9 27.0 31.1 30.3

1938 21.6 16.4 15.9 18.2 21.0 24.9 27,1 29.0 27.9
1939 18.8 16,7 15.5 14.9 17.5 20.6 22.9 25,8


SPRITiG .JACTC ING;C

Because of the expected loss favorable feed-egg ratio, hatchings in the
spring of 1940 are expected to be somewhat smaller than the large hatch of 1939.
Since 1925, a 3-year cycle in chicken numbers has been evident. Production has
bpen expanding for the past 2 years, so if this cycle is continued hatchings
will be smaller in 1940 than in 1939.

FEED-EGG RATIO

During recent months the number of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of
poultry feed at Chicago has been declining seasonally. This number usually
reaches a low point for the year by about the end of November. Since September
the number has been above the number required in the corresponding weeks of
1938 or the 1928-37 average. For the iwok ended Novomber 25, 1-1/4 dozen more
eggs were required to purchase 100 pounds of food than in the corresponding
wook last year and almost 3/4 dozen more than the 10-year average. It is ex-
pected that more eggs will be required to buy 100 pounds of food during the re-
mainder of 1939 and the first half of 1940 than wore required a year earlier or
than the 10-year avorago number.

Food-egg ratio at Chicago
(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)
___ Wcok ending as of 1939
Year : Fob.: oy : Aug.: Oct. : :eov. : Dec.
: 25 : 27 : 26 : 21 : 28 : 4 11 : 18 : 25 : 2: 9 :16
Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.
Avorago
1928-37 : 6.01 7.04 6.26 4.89 4.72 4.33 4.04 4.02 4.04 4.09 4.30 4,52

1938 6.92 5,41 4.57 3.71 3,79 3,48 3,44 3.61 3.48 3.56 3.86 4.01
1939 6.21 7.21 6.33 5.29 5.13 4.73 4,66 4.62 4,73


PES-36


- 9 -










Feed-egg ratio defined

A study of the relate ion beti'en fe:ed, prices a., es- prices can be of
.great value to poultry producer, part c. :.]y J n plarnin.r future operations.
This relation can be .xpTresse:d either as a oe.d-a. ratio or as an e.:-f-eed
ratio.

In the June 1 iss-ue of the ?oni'r;- a:-d -r: Situation a r'iscussion-of
the two types -f ratios :.'as giv.n and co.-r.aets were requezste'.' as to which typ
of ratio vwas preferred. Too f"wa letters v.ere received in response to this re
quest to warrar.t ;:na-in a char.;e at. the rro.--cnt t.i'..e fro,. the feed-e-r' ratio'
to an -' L-feed .'to. 'ic'rcver, ef'eral of the letters :crntaincd requests as
to just how a feed-ugg ratio .was c-nlculaed an-: how., it s-oulc be interpreted.
An answer to these questions is riven be'.cxv:

The Depari -:.nt of A-.ic ".t.': pubi- s>,t two fe.;d-c ratios. Onc of
these is publis'.ed w ]. -. i .- *. .'i-i:alr e ad f ed prices at
Chicago. Th:..s is publis i.d ":.c. 3 di1.- r".':.At ri--orts an-r:' in the Poultz
and ?7- Situiation.. Th ot.hr pu... r.it thl.:' and is ba're-. onl the esti-
rated farmn price of ec-s a.d f'ed as cf t., lt'. of the jonth. It is oub-
lished in the onorThly .r''odL'ctio.. rp-ost of th, C'-'p Ri;.ortui-; board .

Both rtilos show the nnmb-r of do.-,,an e rci:-,' to purchase 100
pounds of a standard poultry ration. Th--: -.1 iorn .se-d is co.pccce.d of 62 pound
of corn, 14 pounds of heat, F "ci.undcs of Poe-, Z _oun:s of bars -', 9 pounds c
branK and 5 pou0n.-- of t.n_._-., the total .:c'u.i. LO' pou, Tan.:ate as in-
cluded instead of sor ot!'.-" fo.-r, of an; al protein, su.'i as r:meat scrap, be-
cause a long caries of -.ric. iras not avail:-l.-: for suc;i a zrotcin. This ra-
tion is not neccssa il;- --coi. :nc'- .:o: 1outo ,. :.u-C' '. It Las chioscn be-
cause it reoresent3 a .-c'erai zv.r l ft. iL -ractic: over wide areas and
many years anc' so serves a.s b.s..- .'; co--' i co,_tr f,.d costs du-'in.r
various periods.

Th>. Chica.-o fe.--::-. rat.-o is b _s-r c thL"c follo'. rg w.'i-ly average
market quotations:

I,s Frush -Qr.-.d Firsts at Chica.'o
Ccrn I'. 3 :.t "hica';o
a,'hc.t T' .. 3 i. ot rh..ca.o
0a t s -. 3 ".hi,': a;Lt ,hica-o
3r..ly ;r',. 2 at .ira' anco i:s
Dra.. At r'.ica-r-
r.-acae At ,:- ica-o

The far .ifee'j-ec_- rtio is based on the fol-n'.-.n-r prices for the Unit<
States as estitatc- for th:- 1th, n' c.ch n.-'onth:

-- Pric. -crceiv. b f.
Ccri, w^'-at, oaL. P.-c. ca'-: '.." Pr-i ces recciv.d
b'y far.:crs
PBr' and tapn;a-e Fri.c; [r.a r' b:' f a -.cr"

After fcc-ci. and eg- prices have bcr. ..tainrK.'., the fecd-egg ratio is
comn:utud by dJivid-..i- f'-d pr ccs b' c-,s nic s a. illut 'ats- below:


PES-36


- 10 -







Z 3-36 11 -

Chicago feed-e-gg ratio, INovenber 13-18, 1939

Cost of poultry ration per cwt. $13.131
Price of Fresh Graded Firsts per cozen .245
Ch''ic-o feed-egg rtio 4.62

The principal ._v-ntges of the Chicago ratio, as cor-pared wi.h the
ar.' ratio, are th.t the ratio can be computed for a raore recent period and
that sometimes ch nges are evident in weekly data which are hidden in monthly
averages. For these reasons, the Chicago rFatio is published in the Poultry
and Z- Situation. An advantage of the farm ratio is that it gives a better
indication of conditions throughout the United States,

The most important use for the feed-egg ratio is in forecasting future
!poultry and egg production. For exam!p;.e, it has been found that, on the aver-
ae, a 20-percent decrease from the preceding year in the October-Miarch feed-
egg ratio has resulted in a 5-percent increase in the number of chicks on hand
per farm, floc'k the following. June 1 as compared with the preceding year. Like-
wise, a 20-percent decrease in the July-December feed-egg ratio, on the aver-
age, has resulted in a 1-percent increase in the number of hens and pullets of
laying age in farm flocks on January I over what would normally result from
changes in the number of chicks on hand per farm flock' the preceding July 1.

The fee,-:--- ratio alone, cannot bh used to show whether egg producers
are marinrg or losing money at any one time. Many factors other than feed
costs and egg prices determine the profitableness of an individual laying
flock. However, the change in feed costs in relation to egg prices from one
period to another is an important factor in affectiLnr a change in the profit-
ableness of egg production. ". :n the feed-egg ratio is high, feed costs are
high in relation to e:-g prices;, and, other things being equal, it is less
profitable to produce eggs t ian when the ratio is low.

DATA

Dome stic demand

The domestic demand for farm products is expected to be stronger in
1940 as a whole than in 193Y, large-ly because of prospective increases in do-
r.estic business acti- it-y a'nd cons-mucrs' incomes. Both industrial production
and consumerE incomes will be higher at the sta-t of the year then they were
at the begierzin.- of 1939. There may be a temporary let-do-n in the first part
of 1940 while industrial output is being adjusted to the actual volume of do-
mestic consumer deIand and exports, but recovery from such a possible reces-
sion should be sufficiX.ntly early and vigo-ous to brin- the averages for the
year at least moderatol above thos-- for 1939.

jri 1" iultA r'- income index revised

The index of nonagricu]t.u-al income has bee::- revised back to 1929. Trh-
revised index numbers are given in the following table. Data for earlier
-ears were published in the December 1, 193C Poultry and ogg Situation.




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08903 9571
12 -

'ena i icultur:.! income p'yenter, United States, 1920 to date
S.."<:.,.ai corr-ctJ in'e:. nFL. '.e:'rs: ?192,-2 = 10(';


Yea. J :i., Feb. a.. A,"r. isy J'ne. July. Au-. .Sapt., Oct. Iov.. Dec.*nual

---.," ... : ..9 .'" 6.5. .2 6.6 26.1. S6. 96.1 .5.7 65.5 S4.7


1%2 E : c5.0 10.7. 106.3
-30, : 1(6.3. 105.0 104 .1
1 3 '1.7 90.9 C55.)
S'-? .. '7.1 73.2
1 ',3 : 6. .'- 62.1 "
'34 : ,7'./ 70. 71.3
:' 7 .' 7>.6 75.5
'. '-" : ?." 3.' .' .
1 '7 : 92., 73. .5 .1
1 5 : ,.... .l ..7.
13" : :'.6 90.6 '1. 1


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