Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
July 1939
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00040

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text
i .


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL EcoNOMICS
WASHING TON

PES-31 JULY I, 1939



THE PO ULTR Y AND EG G S I T U A T I O N


CHICKS AND YOUNG CHICKENS PER FARM FLOCK
ON JUNE 1. 1927-39
NUMBER
PER FLOCK




140





130





120


1927 19
U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 3150 BUREAU O AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


HENS AND PULLETS PER.FARM FLOCK ON JANUARY 1. 1928-39
NUMBER
PER FLOCK


90 _-



86 AVERAGE I2s-A




82




78 --------- -_---- I --


11. DEFPAIRTHENI OFMCIILTURE


BEG 55475 BUREAU OF AGICULTURAL ECONOMICS


TNE CHANCE I THE NUMBER Or CHIClE AND YOUNC CHICKENS PE TA rAM LOCK ON
.tMiE 1 AlIBE AN INDICATION OF T C HANC N THE NUMBER r AND PULLET E
rIIM fLOCK ON THE FOLLOWING JANUAnY I. THE PERCENTAGE CHANCE IN THE NUMBER Or
NINE AND PULLEIS, NHOWEER, IB GTNEtALLY L THA THAN THE PERCENTAGE ChIlig IN T
NUMBER OF OHICIK AND YOUNG CHICKENS. ON JUNE I THE NUMBER OF CHICSG AND TYUNO
CHICKENS PEN FAIM FLOCK WA. 3 PERCENT ABOVE LAST YEAN, ON 'iaE AlIs OF PART
EXPERIENCE, THE BIZE OF LAYINN FLOCKS ON JANUARY I, 1940, MAY BE LIT TL., IF AN,
LARDER THAN IN 1939.








THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
EGGS I 1 PERCENT I
(DOZENS) CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME*
1 |1924-29--100
7 --"- --Average-
1I928-37t







S\ I / Average
4 1938-- -- 928-37t



CASES CENTS I I I
THOUSANDS) RECEIPTS OF PER FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS
200 ------EGGS AT-- POUND
NEW YORK
18

150 1938 Average -
A average 1928-37t
I'1928-37 16

100 1939 --



50 -- 939

JAN. APR. JULY OCT. 12
GASES I I I I I I CENTS ] I
THOUSANDS) STORAGE MOVEMENT OF PER FARM PRICE OF EGGS
600 -SHELL EGGS AT 26 MARKETS DOZEN
11938 30 --- ~
400 Average 1938
400 25199 1928-37t /

.25--
IN 19 39
200 STORAGE -


00
15
OUT OF STORAGE

110
JAN. MAR. MAY JULY JAN. APR. JULY OCT
fAVERAOE FOR ImsU-ar/INSTEAD OF FOR 192U-4. AS FORMERLY/SHOWH FOR PURPOSES Of COMPARISON
a INDEX NUMBERS. ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE REG.35E01 BUREAU OP IL9HICULIURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I





PES-31


- 3 -


THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION


Summary

The poultry and egg situation in June showed little improvement over

previous months of this year, reports the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.

Prices of eggs were at the lowest level since 1934 and prices of chickens

were lower than at any time since the winter of 1937. The lower prices

this year than last reflect chiefly larger seasonal marketing of chickens

and eggs and larger storage stocks of these products. A recent supporting

factor to egg prices has been the purchase of 250 cars of eggs by the

Federal Surplus Commodities Corporation for relief distribution. The feed-

egg price ratio continues much less favorable for farmers than a year earlier.

Receipts of eggs at the four markets New York, Chicago, Philadelphia

and Boston have been declining seasonally but continue above last year.

Since late May, combined storage holdings of shell and frozen eggs have been

above last year. By August 1 holdings may be 5 to 10 percent larger than

on that date last year.

The number of chickens from this year's hatchings in farm flocks on

June 1 was about 3 percent larger than on that date in 1938 as compared with

5 percent above last year on May 1. On the basis of past relationships be*

tween changes in numbers of chickens on January 1 and changes in number of

chicks and young chickens the-preceding June 1, the size of laying flocks on

January 1, 1940 may be little if any larger than in 1939.

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York during the 4 weeks ending

June 24 were 25 percent larger than during the corresponding period last

year. Storage stocks of frozen poultry on June 1 were 28 percent larger

than in 1938. The heavy out-of-storage movement of poultry has probably




PES-31 4-

ended for this season. Because of the larger number of hens and chicks on

farms and the increased hatchings of poults compared with last year, market

receipts of poultryprobably will continue larger during the remainder of

1939 than in the same months of 1938.
Prices received by farmers for eggs declined 0.3 cents from May 15 to

June 15. Prices on June 15 were over 3 cents per dozen below prices on that

date last year and 2a cents below the 1928-37 average for June 15. Prices

on June 15 this year were the lowest since 1934.

The farm price of chickens declined a half cent between May 15 and

June 15. The price on June 15 was more than 2 cents per pound below last

year and nearly 3 cents below the 1928-37 average for June 15. Prices on

June 15 this year were the lowest since January 1937 and the lowest for

June since 1934.

Feed situation

The feed-egg ratio (based on Chicago prices) declined considerably
from June 3 to June 24. The ratio continued wall above 1938 but was about
the same as the 1926-37 average for corresponding weeks. During the 4 weeks
ending June 24 the ratio was 27 percent above last year and 2 percent above
the 10-year average. During the week ending June 24, about 1-1/5 dozen more
eggs were required to purchase 100 pounds of poultry ration at Chicago than
in the corresponding week last year.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago
(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)
_: Week ending as of 1939
Year Mar. :May :May :June :June : June: June: July: July: July: Sept. :Dec.
: 25 : 20 : 27 : 3 : 10 : 17 : 24 : 1 : : 15 : 30 : 30
:Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.
Average :
1928-37: 6.51 6.86 7.o4 7.12 6.94 6.82 6.87 7.00 7.12 7.16 5.63 4.62

1938 : 6.56 5.61 5.41 5.44 5.57 5.73 5.56 5.50 5.33 5.31 4.10 4.31
1939 : 6.28 7.14 7.21 7.45 7.14 6.90 6.78

Hat things

The number of chickens from this years hatchings in farm flocks on
June 1 was about 3 percent larger than on that date in 1938 as compared with
5 percent more than last year on May 1. This increase is a reflection of the
22 percent increase over last year in salable chicks hatched by commercial
hatcheries from January through May. Changes in numbers from June 1 to July
1 are usually relatively snall.





PES-31


Average number of chicks and young chickens per farm flock

Year May 1 June 1 July 1

Number Number Tumb er ..... .

Average
1928-37 :37,4 131.5 1354,9

1937 : 82.4 117,8 117.4
1938 94.5 131.7 132.6
1939 : 99.6 135.2


Reports from commercial hnatc.-eries shower. an increase of 21 percent in
the number of chicks ha'ch-d in ''ay as compared -jith a ye~r earlier. However,
advance orders for cli"nk ori Jvne 1 '-ere 10 percent sm-ller than a year earlier.
This decrease reflected recent changes in the relation between feed prices and
egg prices and the heav-y rp.rcha.-ea of chicks '.. bmu-'rs earlier in the season,

The early promise of a substantial increase in the rnmber of poults
hatched by commercial hatcl.erles this joason is being coinii'nmed. Forty-eight
percent more poults were hatched this M.y than last and 49 percent more eggs were
set. The number of turkeys raised this :,ear may be the largest on record.

Poultry marketing

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York have been increasing seasonally.
During the 4 weeks ending June 24, receipts were 25 percent larger than in the
corresponding weekE of 1938 and 40 Dorccnt above the 1925-37 average. Receipts
during the remainder of 1935 probably will continue 1pa," than. in the same
months of 1938. This is indicated by the larger runiber of hens and chicks on
farms and the increased hatchings of poults this year than lAst.

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York

___: W____ ____ __'di~- pf 1.q__
Year May : May : Jine : Ji: e : J.-na3 : June : July : July : Aug.
S 20 2_ ____ : 10 : 17 : ?4 : 1 :__ 26
:1,000 I,Ono lC1,'0 1,0,o 1,'11O 1,C000 1,000 1,000 i, '0o
:pounds pounds _pcun-s poIpndI pounds pounds pounds pounds pc',.nds
Average
1928-37 : 2,710 2,745 2,835 3.,009 3,287 3,345 3,443 3,097 3,443

1938 : 3,087 3,819 3,072 3.78 13. 23 3,560 3,990 3,233 3,386
1939 : 3,805 3.995 3,64o 4,805 4,447 4,611


.tPultry storage

Storage stocks of frozen poultry have apparently reached about the lowest
IeVel for this season. Market supplies of fresh killed poultry are sufficiently


- 5 -




PES-31 6 -


large to supply the current demand. Within another month or two excess supplies
will begin to move into storage. United States storage stocks on June 1 were
2S percent above stocks a year earlier but 19 percent below the record high stocks
on June 1, 1937.

Storage stocks of frozen poultry at 26 markets

_"l____ Week endin g s of 1539 _
Year : Storage : Storage movement : Storage
stocks : June : June : June : June : stocks
: May 27 ; 3 LO___L 17 2 Jamn_4
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average
1928-37 : 38,279 1,521 1,328 576 1ll 34,743

1937 : 60,293 1,224 2,237 639 862 55.331
1938 36.,935 575 +* o 20 303 37,123
1939 : 47,572 + 327 668 42 506 49,031


Chicken price s

The farm price of chickens declined a half-cfnt between May 15 and Jiine 15.
This was considerably more than the usual seasonal decline and slightly more than
the decline last year. The June 15 price was more than 2 cents per pound below
last year and nearly 3 cents below the 1928-37 average for June 15.

Price per pound received by farmers
for chickens

Year : Jan. : Mar. : Apr. : May : June : July : Aug. : Sept. : Nov.
:____ ____ 15- : 15 15 15 : 15 : 1 5 : 15 : 15 : 15
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
192S-37 : 15.1 15,7 16,4 16,.3 16,1 15,8 15.7 16,0 14.9

1937 : 13.4 l4.4 15.2 14.g 14.8 15.3 16;S 17. 16.9
1938 : 16.7 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.o0 14.2 14.3 13.6
1939 : 14.0 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.4

Domestic demand

Recent developments have given further indications of moderate improvement
this summer and fall in industrial activity and consumer incomes. No marked
changes are expected, however, and the general business situation and demand for
farm products probably will continue relatively stable throughout the year.




PES-31


It appears probable that no marked changes in business activity,
such as occurred in opposite directions in 1936-37 and in 1937-38, will
be repeated in 1939 and 1940. It is true that business activity in the
past generally has been characterized by wide fluctuations rather than
stability. There have been, nevertheless, some rather extended periods
of relatively stable conditions, and it is not at all improbable that
changes in industrial activity during the next year or more will be less
marked than those which have occurred in most years since 1929.

Index numbers of nonagricultural income
(1924-29 = 100, adjusted for seasonal variation)

Year Feb. Mar.: Apr.: May :June : July : Aug.: Oct. : Dec.

Average
1928-37 87.0 86.7 86.3 86.5 86.4 86.6 86.6 86.2 87.53

1937 93.7 94.8 95.7 96.8 96.8 97.9 98.2 96.4 98.4
1938 90.0 99.5 89.6 87.5 87.3 87.6 89.0 90.5 95.0
1939 : 92.2 92.2 90.4 1/91.1

I/ Preliminary.


Laying flock size

The seasonal decline in the number of hens and pullets of laying
age in farm flocks this year has been about average. The number of lay-
ers per farm flock on June 1 was 5 percent above a year ago but 4 per-
cent below the 1923-37 average for June 1.

The number of layers per farm flock generally reaches a peak
about the beginning of the year. The chart on the cover page shows how
the number on January 1 has varied since 1928. The dotted lines indi-
cate the range within which the nuriber of hens per flock on January 1,
1940 may fall if past relationships continue.

This range is based on figure 2, which shows the relationship be-
tween changes in numbers of hens and pullets in farm flocks on January 1
and numbers of chicks and young chickens on the preceding June 1. In
years when the number of chicks on farms increases, the number of hens
and pullets on the following January usually also increases but by a
smaller proportional amount. Changes in the feed-egg ratio from July
to December also affect the number of chicks which are kept for laying
flocks. Changes in this and other factors keep the relationship between
chicks and hens from being exactly uniform from ycar to year.


- 7 -






























































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PES-31


9 -


Average number of laying hens per farm flock on the
first day of the month


Year Mar. Apr. May : June : July Aug. : Sept. Dec.
Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Number
Average :
1928-37 : 82.3 79.7 75.1 70.9 66.8 64.2 63.5 79.8

1937 : 80.0 77.5 73.1 68.5 63.6 62.1 59.9 74.4
1938 : 75.8 73.8 68.6 65.0 61.6 59.3 59.8 78.0
1939 79.8 76.8 72.2 68.3



Egg production

The average number of eggs laid per 100 hens continues high. Al-
though the rate of lay on June 1 this year was not quite equal to the
rate in either of the past 2 years, it exceeded the June 1 figure for
any other of the 15 years of record and was 4 percent above the 1928-37
June 1 average.

Total egg production per farm flock on June 1 was 3.5 percent
above that of last year and was about equal to the 10-year average for
that date.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in farm
flocks on the first day of the month


Year Mar. Apr. : May June : July Aug. .
l


Sept..
*


Dec.


:Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Number
Average
1928-37 37.7 53.0 55.5 50.1 42.8 37.1 32.7 15.2

1937 : 39.2 52.8 57.8 52.5 44.4 40.4 36.1 18.6
1938 42.2 57.9 58.1 52.9 46.5 41.2 35.3 19.9
1939 : 41.4 56.3 57.6 52.1



Egg marketing

Receipts of eggs at both New York and the 4 markets combined have
been declining seasonally. However, receipts at New York during the 4
weeks ending June 24 were 9 percent below receipts a year ago, while re-
ceipts at the 4 markets combined were 7 percent above receipts a year
ago.





PEU-31


10 -

Receipts of eggs at New York


SWeek ending as of 1939
Year : May : May : Juno : June aJune une ne :July : July : Aug.
: 20 : 27 : 3 : 10 : 17 -: 24 : 1 S : 26
a 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Avorageo
1928-37 a 224.9 213.7 197.3 197.0 175.5 166.9 157.1 140.8 102.1

1938 : 136.1 176.7 176.3 178.8 163.9 143.4 136.g 113.s 91.2
1939 a 198.1 181.8 158.3 163.6 142.3 138.9



ZEg storage I/

Cold storage holdingsof shell eggs in the United States on June 1
were 15 percent larger than a year earlier but holdings of frozen eggs
were 10 percent smaller. Combined holdings of shell and frozen eggs were
5 percent larger than a year earlier. Through June 17 into-storage move-
ment at 26 cities continued above last year for both shell and frozen
eggs.


On the basis of past
storage stocks of shell and
5 to 10 percent larger than


relationships, it appears that United States
frozen eggs combined on August 1 may be from
on that date last year.


Storage stocks of eggs at 26 markets


: Week ending as of 1939
: Storage : Into-storage movement : Storage
Year stocks : June : June : June : June : stocks
: May 27 : 3 : 10 : 17 : 24 a June 24
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
cases cases cases cases cases cases
Shell: A
Average :
1923-37 : 4,502 382 311 252 199 5,646

1933N 3,495 253 255 213 170 4,386
1939 : 3,760 33S 279 249 156 4,782

Frozen:
1938 s 2,012 45 63 73 52 2,245
1939 : 1,834 102 112 117 109 2,274



C/ Correction The last line of the first paragraph under "Egg storage"
in the June 1 Poultry and Egg Situation should read, "As a result,
storage holdings of shell eggs at these markets on May 27 were 8 per-
cent above last year and of frozen eggs only 9 percent below last year.
Combined holdings of shell and frozen eggs were 2 percent larger than
a year earlier.





- 11 -


E prices

The farm price of epgs declined 0.3 cents from May 15 to June 15.
Last year the price increased 0.b cents while on the average prices-show
little change between these tyro dates. Prices on June 15 wero ovor 3
cents per dozen below prices on that date last year and 21 cents below
the 1928-37 average for June 15.

Prico per dozen received by farmers for eggs

Year : Jan. : Mar. : Apr. : May i June : July : Aug. a Sept.: Nov.
: li 1* I I li 1 I : 15 15


: Gents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cent
Average
1928-37 I 25.9 1s.o 17.4 17.5 17.4 18.7 20.6 23.9 31.1

1937 : 23.1 19.9 20.1 17.9 17.6 19.4 20.4 22.9 28.0
1938 : 21.6 16.2 15.9 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 29.0
1939 : 18.8 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.9


PES-31


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3 1262 06903 9555


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