Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
May 1939
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00038

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text
'r 11(9: -, /


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

29 MAY I, I

TH----------E P ULTR ---------------------Y AN--D EG G S I TUAT ----------------I N
T HE PO0UL T RY A ND E GG S ITU A TIO N


EGGS: FARM PRICE IN THE UNITED STATES
AND RECEIPTS AT NEW YORK
CENTS I
PER DOZEN I I
U. S. FARM PRICE OF EGGS

35 -_-- -/ -
Average
1925-34
30 -i--/
A average
/ 1928-37 ,
25 --19388-- -







15
CASES
I THOUSANDS I f-T
Average f RECEIPTS OF EGGS AT NEW YORK
1928-37 1 1

200

Average 1925-34






50





JAN. FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT. NOV. DEC.


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULIURE


NEG 35318 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


A SHIFT FROM THE 1925-34 AVERAGE TO THE 1928-37 AVERAGE FOR PURPOSES OF
COMPARISON MAKES ALLOWANCE FOR AN APPARENT CHANCE IN THE SEASONAL VARIATION
OF EGG PRICES. AVERAGE PRICES WERE MUCH LOWER IN THE LATTER PERIOD FROM NOV-
EMBER TO JANUARY THAN FROM MARCH TO JUNE. THIS CHANGE IN THE SEASONAL VARIA-
TION OF PRICES SEEMS TO DE LARGELY A RESULT OF CHANGES IN EGG PRODUCTION AND
RECEIPTS. AVERAGE RECEIPTS OF EGGS AT NEW YORK WERE MATERIALLY LESS FROM
APRIL TO THE MIDDLE OF MAY DURING 1928-37 THAN DURING 1925-34 BUT WERE SOME-
WHAT LARGER FROM NOVEMBER TO JANUARY.


PES-


939








THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE


.N APR JULY OCT
I I I I I I
STORAGE MOVEMENT OF
SHELL EGGS AT 26 MARKETS
I I I /S^ Jo/938


JAN. MAR MAY JULY JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
AVERAGE FOR 192-8.7/INSTEAD OF FOR 1925-34 AS FORMERLY SHOWN FOR PURPOSES OF COMPARfISON
*INDEF NUMBERS. ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATIOh A ON 1ST DAY OF MONTH


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


hEG. 35319 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


EGGS
(DOZENS)


7



6



5



4



3
NUMBER


50



40



30



20


12
NUMB






PES-29


THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATI 0I



Summary


The outlook for poultry and eggs changed little during the past month,

according to the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. The feed-egg ratio is

less favorable for production than it was a month ago but has been slightly

more favorable than it was last year or than the average for 1928-37. Egg

production per 100 hens on April 1 was about 3 percent less than the record

high production last year, but the increased size of flocks resulted in the

largest production per flock reported since 1930.

Receipts of eggs at the 4 markets have been increasing steadily since

February. Receipts during the 4 weeks ending April 22 were 4 percent above

last year. The into-storage movement of frozen eggs has been above last year

throughout this season, and since April 15 the movement of shell eggE has

been above last year. Egg prices declined seasonally from March 15 to April

15.

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York in April were about 6 percent

larger than in April last year, and United States storage stocks of frozen

poultry on April 1 were about 15 percent larger than last year. Poultry mar-

ketings during the remaining months in 1929 are expected to continue larger

than in 1938 since there are more chickens on farms this year, and reports

have indicated a probable large increase in the size of this spring's hatch

of both turkeys and chickens.

Feed situation

The feed-egg ratio (based on Chicago prices) has risen rather steadily
during the past month and for the week ending April 22 was the highest to
date this year. The ratio normally rises from December to June. During the


- 3 -






PES-29


3 weeks ending April 15, the ratio was 4 percent below the corresponding weeks
last year and 5 percent below the 1928-37 average. However, for the week end-
ing April 22, the ratio was 10 percent above last year. The use of the new
10-year average (see page 9) makes egg production in 1939 appear more profit-
able than when the feed-egg ratio was compared with the 1925-34 average.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago
(Ratio of cost of 100 pounds of poultry ration to price of one dozen eggs)


Week ending as of 1939
Year : Jan. :.1ar. :Apr. :Apr. :Apr. :Apr. :Apr. :May -May :May :July:Oct.
: 28 : 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 22 : 29 : 6 : 13 : 20 : 29 : 28
: Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.
Average :
1928-37: 5.32 6.51 6.69 6.78 6.86 6.89 6.86 6.83 6.75 6.86 6.75 4.72

1938 ..: 6.39 6.56 6.70 6.58 6.70 6.10 5.85 5.73 5.78 5.61 5.12 3.79
1939 ..: 6.65 6.28 6.35 6.38 6.55 6.69


Hat chings

The relatively favorable feed-egg ratio continues to encourage an in-
crease in the 1939 hatch as compared with 1938.

The average number of young chickens of this year's hatching on hand
April 1 was about 4 percent above the number on hand last year. The number
on April 1 this year was the largest since 1927, the first year of the rec-
ord. However, this figure varies greatly from year to year and should be
taken only as a general indication. The indicated change on April generally
shows the direction of the trend in production of chickens for the season,
but it does not always do so and is far front being a reliable measure of the
degree of change, even when it is correct as to trend. However, the intend-
ed increase of 8 percent in the purchase of baby chicks reported last month,
together with the 4 percent increase in young chickens on hand April 1, does
indicate the probability of an increase in chicken numbers during the year.

Reports from commercial hatcheries showed an increase of 18 percent
in the number of chicks hatched in March as compared with a year earlier.
Eggs set during March increased 16 percent, and advance orders on Aprillwere
23 percent above the preceding year.

Poultry market incs

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York during the four weeks ended
April 22 were about 6 percent larger than in the corresponding weeks of 1938
and 6 percent above the 1928-37 average. Receipts will probably continue
larger than in the same months of 1938 during the remainder of 1939. Poultry
receipts usually reach a low point in April and increase from that date un-
til Deccmbur.


- 4 -






PES-29


Receipts of dressed poultry at New York


: Week Ending as of 1959
Year Mar. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : Ay : Iley : June
: 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 23 : 29 : 6 : 13 : 24
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,C00 1,000 1,000 1,000
:pounds pound s pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average
1928-37 ..: 2,093 2,133 2,175 2,274 2,302 2,372 2,687 2,720 3,345


1938 .....: 1,707
1939 .....: 2,808


2,538 1,989 2,341 1,991 2,221 2,826 2,977 3,560
2,425 2,294 2,275 2,418


Poultry storage

Stocks of frozen poultry in the United States on A-ril 1 were 15 per-
cent above stc...ks of a year earlier but 24 percent relow the record high
stocks for April 1, 1937. The out-of-storage movemLnnt has probably reached
its seasonal peak, and during the 3 weeks ended April 15 was about equal to
the movement last year.


Storage stocks of frozen poultry at 26 markets

Week ending as of 1939
Storage : Out-of-storage movement : Storage
Year stocks : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : stocks
: Mar. 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 22 : 29 : Apr. 29
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average
1928-37 .....: 69,217 4,486 4,437 4,372 4,309 3,728 47,885

1937 ........ : 96,200 5,752 5,498 5,249 4,578 3,586 71,537
1938 ........ : 61,719 3,252 5,548 4,357 2,401 2,461 43,700
1939 ........ : 74,744 4,520 4,692 4,059 3,982


Chicken prices


The farm price of chickens on April 15 was
March 15, but the increase was much less than the
The price on April 15 was about 2 cents per pound
1928-37 average for April 15. The effects of the
on farms and in storage this spring compared with
by the probable higher level of consumers' income


fractionally higher than on
average% seasonal amount.
below'last year and the
larger supplies of poultry
last will be partly offset
and demand.


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PES -29


Price per pound received by farmers for chickens


: Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : May : June : July : Sept.:
: 115 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 15


Nov.
15


: Cents Cents Cents Centq Cents Ce"ts Cents Cents Cents
Average
1928-37 .: [1.1 15.4 15.7 16.4 16.3 16.1 15.8 16.0 14.9

1937 ....: 13.4 12.6 11.4 15.2 14.8 14.8 15.3 17.4 16.9
1938 ....: 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.3 13.6
1959 ....: 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4


Domestic demand

There was little change during tha past two months in general business
activity and other conditions affecting the current domestic demand for farm
products, although the coal strike resulted in a decline of several points
in the index of industrial production during April. But a number of events
occurred which may have an imporrtea beering on dezeand conditions during the
remainder of the year. Outstanding events were the increased tenseness of
the political situation in Europe and the sharp declines in stock prices to
the lowest point since June 1938. These developments and uncertainties tend
to reduce, but do not eliminate, the possibility of sane improvement in busi-
ness and consumer incomes by summer. The actual outcome depends largely up-
on how long the fears and uncertainties continue. The best appraisal which
can now be made of the outlook for domestic demand is that the anticipated
moderate spring-summer improvement will be delayed, and possibly even pre-
vented altogether, but prospects still are for a year of relative stability
in domestic demand conditions if there is no general Europein war.

Index of nonagriculturel income.
(1924-29 1= 00, adjusted for seasonal variation)


Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. My June Aug. Oct. Dec.

Average
1928-37 .: 86.9 87.0 86.7 86.3 86.5 86.4 86.6 86.2 87.3

1937 ....: 92.6 93.7 94.8 95.7 96.8 96.8 98.2 96.4 98.4
1938 ....: 91.2 90.0 89.5 89.6 87.5 87.3 89.0 90.5 95.0
1939 ....: 92.4 92.2 1/92.2

1/ Preliminary

Laying flock size

The seasonal decline in numbers of hens and pullets in farm flocks
this year has been about equal to the usual decline. The number of layers
per farm flock on April 1 was about 4 percent above a year ago but about 3
percent below the 1928-37 average for April 1.


- 6 -






PES-29


Average number of laying hens per farm flock on the
first day of the month


Year


Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Oct.
: : eb : : : : .. Juy .O t


:Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Number
Average
1928-37 ....: 86.0 85.1 82.3 79.7 75.1 70.9 66.8 68.6

1937 .....: 84.2 82.5 80.0 77.5 73.1 68.5 63.6 64.3
1938 .....: 77.6 78.3 75.8 73.8 68.6 65.0 61.6 65.6
1939 .....: 82.8 82.0 79.8 77.0


Egg production


Although egg
last year's April 1
April 1 and was the
year's.


production per hundred layers failed by 3 percent to equal
production, it was 6 percent above the 1928-37 average for
highest April 1 rate of laying on record except for last


Reported production per farm flock on April 1 was 1 percent above last
year and was the largest for that date since 1930. It was about 2 percent above
the 1928-37 average production for April 1. It is expected that the aggregate
egg production per flock from March to June will be from 1 to 5 percent above
last year for these months because of the larger size of farm flocks on March 1.

About 37 billion eggs were produced on farms in the United States in 1938.
This was only 2 percent less than the 1937 production which was the largest pro-
duction on record. Production in 1938 was 1 percent above the 1927-36 average.
A complete report giving farm production and disposition of chickens and eggs by
States for 1937 and 1938 may be obtained from the Bureau if Agricultural Economics.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in farm
flncks on the first day of the month


Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Oct.

:Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Number
Average
1928-37 ....: 17.9 25.0 37.7 53.0 55.5 50.1 42.8 25.5

1937 ......: 22.0 25.7 39.2 52.8 57.8 52.5 44.4 28.8
1938 ......: 22.7 32.2 42.2 57.9 58.1 52.9 46.5 28.2
1959 ......: 24.6 31.9 41.4 56.3


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PES-29


Egg marketing

Receipts of eggs at New York during the 4 weeks ending April 22 were 1
percent below receipts a year ago and 17 percent below the 1928-37 average for
this period. During March, receipts at New York were about 10 percent above
last year. However, last year in early April receipts rose rapidly above pre-
ceding weeks while this year rooeipts during the 4 weeks ending April 22 were
slightly below receipts for the week ending March 25. This accounts for the
apparent reversal ii? the trend of egg receipts at New York as compared with
last year.

Receipts of eggs at the 4 markets have been rising steadily since Febru-
ary and during the 4 weeks ending April 22 were 4 percent above last year*

Receipts of eggs at New York

Week ending as of 1939
Year : Mar. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : May : May s June
: 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 22 : 29 : 6 : 13 : 24
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000X
: cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average
1928-37 .: 192.7 209.0 212.3 221.0 215.1 217.2 216.7 220.9 166.9

1938 ..: 151.8 178.8 198.1 193.1 152.0 170.5 183.8 176.4 143.4
1939 ..: 188.1 171.7 175.1 179.3 187.3

Egg storage

Cold storage holdings of shell eggs on April 1 were 16 percent below
last year and of frozen eggs,were 37 percent below last year. However, the
into-storage movement of eggs to be stored in frozen form has been well above
last year throughout the present into-storage season. The into-storage move-
ment of shell eggs was below last year until the week ended April 15 but has
been above last year since that time.

Storage stocks of eggs at 26 markets
_: Week ending as of 1939
Year :Storage : Into-storage movement :Storage
:stocks : April : April : April : April t April :stocks
:Mar. 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 22 : 29 :Apr. 29
: 1,000 1000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Shell: : cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average
1928-37 .: 497 269 368 441 491 524 2,590

1938 ..: 621 263 299 291 314 345 2,133
1939 ..: 431 215 266 360 419
Frozen:
1938 ..: 1,540 60 54 43 88 216 1,811
1939 ..: 850 92 93 110 102


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PES-29


Egg prices

The farm price of eggs declined a half cent between March 15 and April
15. This was slightly less than the 1928-37 average decline between these
two months but slightly greater than the decline which occurred last year.
Prices on April 15 were almost a half cent below last year and almost 2 cents
below the 1928-37 average for this date. Egg prices on the average remain
about the same from April 15 to June 15, but last year they rose rapidly be-
tween April 15 and Uay 15 and continued to rise until Novem;ber 15.

Price per dozen received by firm-rs for eggs

ear : Jan. : Feb. : L'r. : Apr. : May : June : July : Sept.: Nov.


: 15 : 15 : 15 : 10


: 10 : 15


:Cents Cents Cents C.onts Cents CLnts Cents Cents Cents
Average
1928-37 ...: 25.9 21.6 18,0 17.4 17.5 17.4 18.7 23.9 31.1

1937 .... 23.1 20.1 19.9 20.1 17.9 17.6 19.4 22.9 28.0
1938 ....: 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.9 17.6 18.2 19.9 24.9 29.0
1953 ....: 18.8 16.7 16.0 15.5



Shift from a 1925-34 to a 1928-37 average for
comparison purposes

It has been decided to shift from a 1925-34 average for comparison
purposes to a 10-year average ending 2 years prior to the current year. For
1939, this average includes the period 1928-37. This shift not only brings
the comparison period more up to date and makes it agree with the average used
in the Monthly Crop report but it also makes some allowance for an apparent
change in the seasonal variation of the production and price of eggs.

This change in seasonal variation is most pronounced with respect to
egg prices. While the 1928-37 average is only 1 cent per dozen below the
1925-34 average during March to June, it is 4 cents lower in November and 5
cents lower in December and January. The 1925-34 average shows a slight in-
crease from November to December, but the 192S-37 average shows a 1-cent
decrease.

This change in the seasonal variation of prices seems to be largely a
result of changes in production. By earlier hatching and more scientific
management, farmers have increased the production of eggs in the late fall
and winter months. VYhile the aggregate layings per 100 hens on the 1st day
of the month from march to June during 1928-37 was less than one-half of 1
percent greater than in 1925-34, laying from November to January were 8 per-
cent greater. Also, while the average number of hens per flock from March


- 9 -


: 15


: 15 : 15i




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IIIIIl IIIIIIi11|111
3 1262 08903 9530
PES-29 10 -


to Jure during 1928-37 was 3 percent less than in 1925-34, the average number
was only 2 percent less from November to January.

This change in seasonal production has caused a corresponding change
in egg receipts. Average receipts at New York, as shown on the cover chart,
were materially less from April through May 15 during 1928-37 than during
1925-34 and were somewhat larger from November through January.

Average peak storage holdings of shell eggs on August 1 during 1928-37
were 660,000 cases less than the August 1 average for 1925-34. However,
these smaller holdings cf shell eggs were just about offset by larger hold- .
ings of frozen eggs, so that total cold storage holdings of eggs were about .
the same in the two periods, i.

The change in seasonality was much less pronounced in poultry prices
and receipts and may be largely accounted for by earlier hatchings. The i.
April 15 peak in average farm chicken prices came a month earlier during
1928-37. There was a slight increase in average prices on September 15
during 1928-37 which may be due to improved quality at that time and the .
several important Jewish holidays that occur in September. Decreases in .
cold storage holdings of frozen poultry tended to level off a month or two .
earlier on the average, during 1928-37 than during 1925-34.


A:.