Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
September 1938
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00030

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text

: 7 -, : /


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


PES-21 SEPTEMBER I, 1938

-----------------------------------------------------
THE P O ULTR Y AND EG G SITUATI 0 N





FEED-EGG RATIO. 1925-38


DOZENS

4

3

2

1
WEEKLY
10-YEAR AV -
192S-.4
-1

-2

-3

U S DEPARTMENT OF


1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937
S46QCULliUE NMCG J1471 BuM[EU Or niCtuL .UAL ECODOM.C,


HENS AND PULLETS OF LAYING AGE": NUMBER PER FARM FLOCK ABOVE
OR BELOW 10-YEAR AVERAGE. 1ST DAY OF MONTH. 1925-38


28 29 30 "31 32 33
*IN F4rM FLOCKS OF CROP WEPOPTERS


UEG .Oo47U HuREi[u OF ACDICULiUq*L tOho-oMC


U DEPARTMENT or AGRICULTuRq







THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
I AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34-100


PERCENT




100 -




80




60
130



120



110



100


100 *



90



80



70


PERCENT



120



110



100



90




140



120



100



80


II
FARM PRICE
/ OF EGGS

-so



SI I19I



a 19i8
I I I I I


Arm.


JULT


JAN.


b
9'
9'
9'
9'


WUT. UPL.


UI I APARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


mei. 45lmS IURIAU Of AUMICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME
I I


**




19.8
- I I I I


EGGS PER 100 HENS



1987-198

-4--






I I I I I I I
a\^"
\ Ih>Iqh*dpD


A ^ '' _


100



90



80



70


I







PES-21 3 -

THE Pf ULTR A !: D EG G S ITUATI ON
--------------------------------------------


S unmary

As seen by the durapu of ugoicultural Economics, the outlook for poul-

try and egg prices ur.til efrly 1'?9, on the basis of present data, is (1) for

chicken prices to continue at Iow levels relative to last year and (2) for egg

prices to increase in relation to 137.

The feed-egg price ratio is expected to continue favorable to poultry-

men, due both to the prospe-tive large supplies of feed grains and the advancing

price of eggs.

Supplies of poultry during the remainder of 1938 are likely to continue

larger than in 1937 and will prevent prices from rising in relation to their

downward seasonal trrnd unless consunimrs' incomes advance more than is now ex-

pected. Storage stocks of poultry by January 1 are likely to exceed those of

the year before.

The peak of egg storag: holdings has been reached. These holdings, a

principal source of supplies until tht early months of 1939, are far below those

of last year or most other re<:nt y a rs. This shorter supply of eggs, together

with some increase in cons'urers' inconis, will tend to maintain egg prices abcve

1937 levels.


Feed situation

The feed situation in August, as repres.cnt-d by the Chicag- fc-ed-egg
price raLii, c'-anged "er-, itt t.E from that in Jully. The number of ecgs re-
quired to purch.'se 100 pounds .f p..ultry ration is still under 80 percent of
the 1925-34 average. Hen0e, the fo.d situati-on, as a whole, is much more fav-
orable to the poultryman than at this time last year when from 30 to 40 per-
cent more eggs than avera-a werc required to buy 100 pounds cf feed.

It is not likely that the feed-egg rating during the period between
September 19.38 and April 1939 will go much abovE its present level.







-4 -

The feec-egg ratic at .icagc, specified weeks, as norcentage
cf 19%E-34 aser&.7e


Year :Jan. :Mar, :.
: 1 : 26 :
: Pet. Pot.


S.ee- ending as :f l%5
.a.y :jure :July :c-ly ::.u. :Aug. :Aug. : Aug.:Oct. :Dec.
28 : 25 : 23 : 5C : 6 : 13 : 20 : 27 : 29 : 3
Ft. t. ?ct. Pct. Pct. Yct. Pct. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pete .


1937 :167.8 149.0 162.E 148.C 148.5 1 7,7 139.5 139.0 138.8 134.0 125.5 131.6
13.38 :117.6 107.0 79.3 63.5 81.7 75.0 75.1 74.3 7F,8


This year's ecrn crep was indicated as cf August 1 to be slightly less
than last year but still ab-ve t.he 1935-4 average. The indicated wheat crop
is the second largest of record. Frccucticr., for recent years, of the various
grains making up the avers poultry raticn is given in the following table.
Frcn ttes- production figures, an index cf poultry feed supplies, relative to
1925-34, as b-en ccnstr'cted, usirs the sane weighting system that is -used-in
m.iing the feed-egc retio. In the right-hand 'olumn cf this tablc is shown. the.
feed-sgg rati- for the -c-rr:spondin ye.'rs relative t-o its 1325-34-evarage-e
INte that large supplies, as in 1_25, do net always bring rb-it a favcrable
feed-s-i-ri on'from t.e standpoint cf prices. The favorable ratio of 1932 was
t--zcurted fcr- very largely by relatively' high cgg prices.


Frcducticn of poultry feed grains -rid feed-egg ratio
: : : : : Index cf : Feed-egg ratio
Year : Corn : "Rheat : Cats : Barley poultryy feed:rclativ- to 1925-34
: : : : : : average I/
: illian !illier tiin i ..i ic n
:bushels bushels bushels bush-ls P-renrt FPrcent
Average
192-5-34 .: 2,460 778 1,100 227 100.0 100.0

12.5 ....: 2,798 689 1,405 192 109.9 85.0
15. ......: 2,547 832 1,153 166 103.6 81.1
1927 ......: 2,C16 675 1,093 259 10i.7 112.t
12.. ......: 2,665 914- 1,313 328 111.7 115.0
1S2S ....; 2,521 823 1,113 280 135.4 103.6
i93C ......: 2,080 8S6 1,275 ZOC 93.4 98.3
1931 .....: 2,576 942 1,124 1.9 106.7 79.7
1.2 ....... 2,931 757 1,251 /98 115.4 45.6
15 .......: 2,450 552 733 154 39.7 118.1
i 4 ...... : 1 4.1 526 542 117 59.6 161.9
1i35 ......: 1,626 1,195 266 93.7 120.0
.o .......: 1,537 627 765 147 65,4 157.5
17 ......: 2,645 874 1,146 220 107.8 124.7
133 2/ ...: 2,565 956 1,041 248 106.6

I/ Last wtik of Icver.bcr.


7


August 1 estinte.


FES-21


t ***










Poultry marketing

Receipts of dressed poultry at New Ycrk in August (to August 27) were
15 percent above thcse of a year earlier and 22 percent abocve the 1925-34 av-
erage. Because of a 13-peroent increase in the hatch this year, it ie likely
that receipts during the next 8 months will exceed those for the same period a
year earlier.

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York, average 1925-34, annual 1937-38


Week ending as cr Io j
: July : July : Aug.
:..23 : 30 : 6
1,000 1,000 1,000


: Aug. : aug. :Aug.
: 15 3 20 : 27
1,0007 1,000 1,000


p
ounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pou

1925-34.: 3,324 2,070 2,651 3,156 2,914 3,005 3,160 3,201 3,394


1937 .....: 3,720
1938-.....: 2,639


2,349 2,342 3,238 3,049 3,079 3,185 3,187 3,990
1,707 3,819 3,350 3,986 4,258 4,549 -,325 3,386


Poultry storage

As measured at the 26 major storing cities the net into storage movement
of frozen poultry has been under way since early June but to only a very slight
extent. The quantity of frozen poultry in storage ,u.gust 27, while 15 percent
-less than in 1937, is- 18 percent above average. With marketing of poultry this
fall expected to run above those of 1937, it is likely that storage stocks by
January 1 (near their peak) will exceed those cf a year earlier.

Storage holdings of dressed poultry at 26 markets
for weeks ending January 1 and August 27, avurago 1925-34,
annual 1937-38
: Week ending as of 1938
Year: Jan. 1 Aug. 27
: 1,000 pounds 1,000 pounds
Average
1925-34 .........: 91,748 32,979

1937 ................: 135,734 45,867
1938 ................: 93,182 39,070

Chicken prices

The farm price of chickens, usually reaches a seasonal peak in April or
May. During the 10 years 1925-34 the decline from this peak to August has
averaged 5.5 percent, and to December has averaged 13.7 percent. The decline
in 1938 already has resulted in an August price nearly 12 percent lower than in
May. The August price is more than 15 percent lower than in August 1937 when
prices had advanced contrary to the normal seasonal change.


Year


: Jan.
: 29
:1,000


: Mar.
: 26'
1,000


: May
: 28 -
1,000


PES-21


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Farm price cf chickens per pound

ear M'y 15 .Aug. 15 Dec. 15
Certs Cents Cents
Average
125-34 ...: 18.3 17.3 15.8

1927 ........: 14.8 16.8 16.4
1938 ........: 16.1 14.2



Frices during the remainder of 1938 are expected to ccnt:nue at cor-
respondingly low levels in relationto 19-37 axid the 10-year average. -


iCo .aricultural inccne, monthly averages
(Seasonally corrected indexes,


1925-34, monthly 1936-38
1924-?9 = 100)


: : : : .
Year J an. Mar. r Ar. May "JuJ.e July- Auc. :Sept. C't. Dec.

Avera.-e
1?25-34 .: 91.0 90.4 89.9 89.7 89.8 89.6 89.6 89.4 89.4 88.8

196. ......: 81.5 82,5 58.1 64.1 85.1 86.8 87.4 87.9 89.8 100.9
1-27 ......: 92.9 95.3 96.3 96.9 96.9 97.7 96.2 96.8 9E.3 98.3
93e .......: 69.9 87.9 87.1 85.4 84.9 85.6

Laying fleck size

The average size of the farm laying fleck declined seasonally from Janu-
ary 1 to August 1 at about its 1925-34 -verage rate, 24 percent. The low point
is usually reached by September 1.

The chart on the cover page shows the size of the farm flock monthly.
since 1925, corrected for seasonal changes. In a very rough way the existence
7f a 3-year cycle is indicated. There are peaks in the last months of 1927,
193C, 1933, and 1936. It seems likely that the increased hatch this year will
start this cycle upon another upward wave which may culminate a year hence.
It is expected that the 13-percent increase in hatch, together with a more
favorable feed-egg ratio than in the "fall of 1937, will induce farmers to in-
-rease their laying flocks 5 to 10 percent cver those of a year earlier. In
terms cf the cover chart, therefore, the line on January 1,. 1939, is expected
to show from 2 to 6 birds per fleck below the 10-year average. On January 1,
1938, the flock size was 10 birds below average.


FES-2 1


- 6 -







Average number of laying h-ns in farm flocks


Year


.Jan. l:Apr. l.May 1 ;Jur.e l:July 1 .Aug. 1 Sept.1l Uov. l.Dec. 1


:Nurber Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Fumber
Average
1925-34 : 87.5 82.0 77.4 73.4 69.6 66.8 66.1 75.7 81.9

1937 .......: 84.2 77.5 73.1 68.5 63.6 62.1 59.9 69.3 74.4
1938 .......: 77.6 73.8 68.6 65.0 1/61.6 59.4
1/ Revised.

Egg production

The August 1 rate of egg production per 100 hens and pullets of laying
age continued at a high level, 12 percent above the 10-year average fcr that
date. Production of eggs per farm flock an indication of total United States
production was 1 percent below the 1925-34 average and was 2 percent beloW '
that for August 1 last year. Relative to the seasonal average, production of
eggs per flock is likely to increase in November or Dccenber when the size of
flock begins to reflect the increased hatch.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying "age in farm: flecks

Year Jan. 1 Feb. 1 'Apr. 1 May 1 :June 1 >July 1 Aug.1 Dec. 1
:Number Number Number Number Number Number Iumber Number
Average
1925-34 .: 16.5 24.2 52.8 55.1 49.5 42.2 36.9 13.9

1937 ......: 22.0 25.7 52.8 57.8 52.5 44.4 40.4 18.6
1938 ....... 22.7 32.2 57.9 58.1 52.9 46.5 41.2

Egg market ings

Receipts of eggs at New York have been declining from the seasonal peak
reached in May. For the 4 weeks ending August 27 receipts wcre 6 percent bc-
low those for the corresponding period last year and 13 percent below the 10-
year. average. During the next.few-months receipts are expected to continue
lighter than those of a year earlier, and not until late 1938 are they likely
to exceed those of a year earlier.

Receipts of eggs at New York, average 1925-34, annual 1937-38
: Week ending as of 1938
Year : Jan. : Mar. : May : July : July : Aug. : Aug. : Aug. : Aug.
: 29 : 26 : 28 : 23 : 30 : 6 : 13 : 20 : 27
:1.000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,COO 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average
1925-34..: 112.2 200.4 217.9- 127.1 119.9 116.6 113.7 111.7 100.2

1937 ......: 152.0 190.7 193.4 117.0 110.5 111.5 98.7 92.3 108.3
1938 ......: 129.2 151.8 176.7 116.8 108.5 102.2 100.6 92.3 91.2


PES-21


- 7 -





PES-21


Egg st orange


The size of storage stocks of eggs on August 1 is an important influence
on fall and early winter egg prices. Storage stocks this year are small, both
when compared with the 1925-34 average and when compared with 1937.


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08903 9704

-_


United States cold storage holdings of eggs August 1
Year Holdings : Percentage f' 1925-34
Year Holdings
_: : average
: 1,000 cases Percent


Shell eggs
Average 1925-34.:

1937 ......
1938 ......
Frozen eggs
Average 1925-34.:

1937 ......
1938 ......

Total
Average 1925-34.:

1937 ......:
1938 ......:


9,567

8,718
6,407

2,596

4,768
3,867


12,163

13,486
10,274


Y


91.1
67.0


183.7
149.0


110.9
84.5


Egg prices


The farm price of eggs since May has advanced slightly more than in 1937,
In August the average for the entire country was 3 percent higher than last years
Because of the present low levels of storage stocks and the prospective improve-
ment in consumers' incomes it is expected that some further advances in egg
prices in relation to last year will occur during the remainder of 1938 and
the early part of 1939.

Farm prices of eggs per dozen
: Jan. : Apr. : May : June : July : Aug. : Sept.: Oct.:Dect
Year : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 15: 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average : '
1925-34 .....: 31.0 18.7 18.7 18.6 20.0 22.0 25.7 30.0 35.7

1936 ..........: 22.8 16.8 18.1 18.9 20.0 22.4 24.5 27.6 30.5
1937 ........... 23.1 20.1 17.9 17.6 19.4 20.4 22.9 25.2 26.0
1938 ..........; 21.6 15.9 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0


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