Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
July 1938
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00028

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


PES-19 JULY I, 1938



TH E POULTRY AND EGG S I TUAT I O N


U. S. EGG PRICES. NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME.
AND STORAGE STOCKS OF EGGS


I Nov. nonagriculural income




--' --,'*- --- ~--
% '




IA-,


-30 1__
1920


1922 1924 1926 1928 1930


U.1 DEPARTMENT OF AGEICULTUEL


1932


a
' 110
0


100.




u








40



30




S20
80
70
















30
a
S20
0 0


Za



a -I
LU


I I 70
1934 1936 1938


MEG 34411 BUREAU OF AGR.CULTU4AL ECONOMICS


CHANGES IN CONSUMER INCOME AND CHANGES IN STORAGE STOCKS
OF EGGS ARE TWO OF THE MOST IMPORTANT INFLUENCES ON CHANGES
IN FALL EGG PRICES. THUS, WHEN INCOME DECLINES UNDER THE
PREVIOUS YEAR EGG PRICES USUALLY DECLINE. WHEN PRICES DROP
SY A LARGER PERCENT THAN INCOME, THE DIFFERENCE IS OFTEN
ATTRIBUTABLE TO AN INCREASE IN STORAGE STOCKS; WHEN PRICES
FALL BY LESS THAN INCOME, THERE HAS OFTEN BEEN A DECREASE
IN STORAGE STOCKS.


140




130
xi



4
o



0
>


I,
120 .
o


u,
110


4




u-
L.I
r






8o
UJ




90 ,
C'i







THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34= 100 )
PERCENT[ I I I I PERCENT I I


200



150



100



50



160


140


120


100


80


60





100



90



80


70 I I 1 I1
JAN. APR.

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


100 -



90



80



70


JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC.

NEG. 14311 NUMEAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


FARM PRICE
/ \ OF EGGS



-,--
I 1 9
I%

I P



5 1

1938 S


I I I I I I I






PES-19 3 -

THE POULTRY AND EGG S I TUAT IC N



Sumirary

On the basis of. present data, the outlook for poultry and egg prices

until early 1939, as seen by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, is (1) for

a more than seasonal decline in chicken prices and (2) for a more than seasonal

advance in egg prices.

Supplies cf poultry during the last half cf this year are likely to be

greater than those of a year before because rf the increased hatch. The in-

crease in the hatch, as of June 1, had placed about 12 percent more chicks

and young chickens on farms. Because cf an unprofitable poultry storage

season just closing the demand fcr poultry for storage may be weaker than

usual. Demand for poultry for consumption, toc, is likely to be weaker than

in the last 6 months of 1937 because of the lower level of consumer income.

The principal sources cf egg supplies in the second half of the year

are storage stocks, which this year are likely to be much below these cf last

year. It is expected that the effect of this shorter supply of eggs will more

than offset the effect of lower consumer incomes.

Feed situation

A sharp rise in thL price of the poultry ration in June raised the feed-
egg ratio from 78 percent 6f the average (1925-34) on June 4 to 83 percent on
June 25. Because of probable advances in egg prices, however, the feed-egg
ratio is not expected to go above average during the summer.

The feed-egg ratio at Chicago, specified weeks, as percent of
1925-34 average
Week ending es of 1938
Year : Jan. : Mar. ::Apr. : May : June: June: June: June: July : Oct. : Dec.
: 1 : 26 :' 30 : 28 : 4 : 11 : 18: 25 : 2 : 29 : 3
: Pet. Pet. ,Pet. Pet. Pct. Pot. Pot. Pct. Pet. Pet. Pet*

1937 t 167.8 148.0 168.0 162.8 160.9 156.5 147,2 148.8 151.7 125,5 131.6
1938 : 117.6 107.0 91.0 79.3 77.9 81.1 84.8 83.5





PES.-19


S-4 -


_-- -. ch i-rs

With the hatchir.g season abcut over, available evidence points to an
-icrease -fror 1937 cf tore than 10 percent in the number of chicks hatched.
CoG=ercial hatcheries from January through Lay hatched about 10 percent more
chicks than a year earlier, and a- the first of June 12 percent more young
chickens were o hcz.d in far= floaks.

Average number of chicks and yo7ng chickens per farm flock
Junae 1

Year H'er YYear U -mber Year Eu-ber

1927 143.8 931 127.3 : 1935 : 123.6
1928 : 130.2 : 1932 : 130.6 : 1936 138.0
1929 : 138.3 :1933 : 138.7 : 1937 117.5
190 : 1345.7 1935 : 121.4 : 1938 131.7


?caltr7 markettia-s

Receipts :f dressed pro-n 7 at '-ew York in June (to June 25) were 5 per-
cent above those of a 7ear earlier ani 17 percent above the 1925-34 average.
-ecause c" the iZ-creased hatch this year it is likely that receipts in the
last 6 months rf the ear will exzecd these cf the last half of 1937.

Receipts of dressed o 'ltry at -7ew York, average 1925-34,
a-u"al 1937-38

week ending as of 1938
Year : Jan. : Mar. : Acr. : May : June : June :June :June : July
: 29 : 26 : 3Q : 28 : 4 : 11 : 18 : 25 : 2
:1,000 1,COO 1,000 1,OCO 1,00C 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:L nords pyot-d n-rr-s pounds nc-mds pounds wRaad Vfous Rpoundsa
Average
1925-34 ..: 3.324 2,C70 2,25 2,651 2,745 2,878 3,240 3,157 3,305

1937 .......: 3,720 2,34. 3,419 2,342 2,942 3,822 3.254 3,35 3.739
1938 .......: 2,639 1,707 2,221 3,819 3,C72 3,781 3,623 3,560


Poqilt=. storage

Storage stocks of frzsen poultry .rze now near their low point for the
year. By September the net into-storage noTeent will be well under ,ay.
thile exact data are nzt available the course of chicken prices indicates a
heaTy loss tj poultry storage operators in the 1937-38 season. As sh-cc in
the next table chicken prices were materially higher during the into-sttrage
period last fall than they have been since January, -





PES-19


- 5 -


Chicken prices

The farm price of chickens usually reaches a seasonal peak in April or.
May and then declines until the end of the year. As may be noted in the chart
on page 2 the price relative to the 10-year (1925-34) average has dec ined
steadily since October. It was then 5 percent above average; in June it was
13 percent below. Further declines, relative to average, are likely.

Farm price of chickens per pound


, : Jan. :
Year I
: 15 ;
C: nt s
Average
1925-34 ..: 16.8
1936 .......: 16,5
1937 .......: 13.4
1938 .......: 16.7


Mar.:

Cens


Apr. :
15 :
gentg


May :
15 a
Cea.nts


June :

Cents


July :
15 :
C9ats


17,5 18,2 18,3 18,0 17,8


16,6
14.4
15,9


16,9
15.2
16.2


16,6
14 .8
16,1


16,
14.8
15.7


16.1
15.3


Sept.: Oct. : Dec.
15 : 15 : 15
Cents Cents Cents


17,3 16,s


14.9
17.4


*17.6
17.6


15,8

16.4


Three factors will contribute to this tendency for a more-than-seasonal
decline in chicken prices. Marketings in the last half of 1938 will probably
exceed those of a year before; storage losses in the past season may weaken
the demand for poultry for storage; and lower'consumer incomes will weaken
the demand for poultry for immediate consumption.

Nonagricultural income, monthly averages 1925-34, monthly 1936-38
(Seasonally corrected indexes, 1924-29 100)

Year Jan.: Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : May July Aug. Sept.j Oct.: Dec.
- ------- I ----------L-. .--. _____ ; ___ --------- --- ---- --- -- .I ,

Average :
1925-34 .: 91,0 90,8 90,4 89.9 89.7 89.6 89.6 89.4 89.4 gg,s


1936 ...,,,: 81.5
1937 ...;..: 92.9
1938.......: 89.9


81 ,9
93.9
88.4


82.5
95.3
87.9


83.1
96.3
87.1


s4,1 86.8
96.9 97.7
s8.6


87.4
98.2


87.9 89.8 100.9
96.8 96.3 98.3


Lvying flock size

The size of
1 to September 1,
about the same as
hatch, the laying
January 1, 1938.


the laying flock declines by about 25 percent from January
The decline to June 1 this year has been.1 .4 percent,
the 1925-34 average decline for this period. With a heavier
flock on January 1, 1939, is likely to be greater than on





PES-19


Average number of laying hens in farm flocks

Year %Jan. 1lFeb. 1 Apr. 1;May :June 1:Aug. 11Sept.1:Nov. 1 Dec. 1
:Number Number Number Nu3ber Number Numnber Number Nuimber Nurmber


Average :
1925-34..: 87.5 87.2 82.0


1937......
1938.......:


84.2
77.6


g2.5
78.3


77.5
73.8


77.4 73.4 66.s


73.1 6g.5
68.6 64.9


62.1


66.1 75.7 81,9


59.9 69.3


74.4


Egg production

The June 1 rate of egg production per 100 hens "nd pullets of laying age
continued at a high level, 7 percent above the 10-year average for the date.
Production of eggs per farm flock an indication of total United States pro-
duction was 6 percent below the 1925-34 average and -was 4 percent below that
for June 1 last year.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in farm flocks

Year Jan. 1 Feb. l1Apr. 1 : Mny 1 :June 1lJuly 1 Sept. 1 Dec. 1
: Number lumber Number Number Nunber Number Number Number
Average
1925-34....: 16.5 24.2 52.8 55.1 49.5 42.2 32.4 13.9

1937........: 22.0 25.7 52.8 57.8 52.5 44.4 36.1 1s.6
1938........ 22.7 32.2 57.9 58.1 52.9


ErM marketing

Receipts of ergs at New York are declining from their seasonal peak
reached during May. For the 4 weeks ending June 25 receipts were 6 percent
below those for the corresponding period last year and 11 percent below the
10-year average. Receipts during the next few months are expected to continue
below those of a year earlier.

Receipts of e&;s at New York, average 1925-34, annual
1937-38
: Week er.ning ,-s "f 193S
Year : Jan. : Mar.: Apr. : May :June : June : June :June
: 29 : 26 : 30 : 28 : 4 : 11 : 13 : 25
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average
1925-34.... 112.2 200.4 235.1 217.9 201.5 197.7 180.4 16g.3

1937 ........ 152.0 190.7 213.8 193.4 176.1 203.3 176.3 148.5
1938........: 129.2 151.8 170.5 176.7 176.3 178.8 163.9 143.4






" S-19


kz storage stocks

Eggs are ordinaril:- stored in the spring] for ui:-se dvrirq the fall nnd
winter whean production is relatively low. The into-stcr&-e fteason c-intinues
from about March 1 to aboat ncit 1. EL-' -re stre inI th- shell -ir are
broken and stored in frozen icrnm.

The movement of e-gs .nt-o storfeke s3o i.r thip .;eatrn has been nuch lighter
than usual. The into-z.torae- m'ven-ont pt the 2o markets in June (to June 25) was
much less than last year 8 percent fcwer shell e' s and 62 percent fewer frozen
eggs.

Storage stocks ancd storage moven.nt of e' :s at Lb :.iar:ets, average
19?5-34, annual 295"7-3?
s 10_cek eftzjin 1- as of 19 ______ ______
Year :Storage : Into-storae .veament : SteorCe
stja- _. : sto cdes
:Mpy 2Z : June 4 : June 11 : JWLC 1' : Jine 25 : Jiue 25
I 1,C00 1.,0 1,000 l,.,, t, (C' 1,000
: cases cases cares c-." c'ises cases


hell egs :
AV.1925-34
1937
.1938
Frozen eg.s
1937
1~935


5,089,
4,694
3,495

2,093
2.012


351
3L'7


177
74


231
297
25t

125
b


17. 7

170

1^4


6,129
,667
, 386

2.,706
2.2h


k:& prices

The farr price of er..s continues t- rise y i.r ti.Fn the v-:erae seasonal
amo-unt. As shown in the chart o:. pnge 2, the price, relati-.e to tno 10-year
(1925-34) averrae, reached a low in Febjn..ry .ni has risan sharrily and steadily
since then. 3y June 15 it was above the 1,-37 li-e; during the last hilf of 1933
it is e:pec-te.1 t) be above e'era.-re.

?-rm prices of e-.s per dozen

Ye;-r :Jan. : Mi. Apr. : May :Ju n July : Sept.: @ct. : Dec.
; 15 .: 1 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 1.5 : 15 : 15 : 15
: Cet. CerLts Cents Cents Cents Qents Cornts Cents Cents


. Average :
1925-34 ......: Ti.0 19.3 j1.7 18.7 13.6 20.0 25.7


30.0 35.7


1936..........: 22.3 17.5
1937 .......... 2 .1 19.9
.1938........... 21.6 16.2


1 :


IS6. s
20.1
15.9


17.9
17.6


1.S.9
17.6
':.. 2


20.0 24.5
19.4 22.9


27.6
25.2


30.5
26.0


The rain basis fnr this a-pe:tation is the low stick if e:,gs in storage.
It is belireed that the effect of this will more that offset the depressing
tendency of lower cons-um.er incomes than ini 1937.


- 7 -




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3 1262 08903 972



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