Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
April 1938
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00025

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


PES-16 APRIL 1, 1938



THE P 0 ULTR Y AND E G G S I TUATI O N





U. S. COLD STORAGE STOCKS OF EGGS ON AUGUST 1. 1916-37


CASES
I MILLIONS I

14


NEG 26382 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


EGG RECEIPTS AT FOUR MARKETS*. MARCH-JUNE. 1918-37
CASES
MILLIONS I

8.5 ---- ---


8.0


7.5 __ _


7.0


6.5


6.0
1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938
SNEW YORK. CHICAGO BOSTON AND PHILADELPHIA


NEG 341P0 BuREAU OF AGRICULILITURAL ECONOMICS


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGR CULTURE










PERCENT


NES. 34123

FIGURE I


APR. JULY OCT. DEC.

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34=100 )
I-- I I PERCENT
NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME RECEIPTS OF EGGS
AT NEW YORK




120 -1938



1938



I I I I I 1 11 1 1 111
II I 130 L I I I

FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS EGG PRODUCTION PER FL
120
-*-1938

1938 110 --197




3100
80 *--------


-- 90


80

-| [105 -

FARM PRICE OF EGGS SIZE OF LAYING FLOC

100

1937




191938 1

1938 90 -


110



100



90



80




110



100



90



80


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE






PES-16


THE F 0 ULTRY L ND EC G S 1T A T I C0


S .--. ; r y


The rrice of eggs appears to lhsvc reaoi.ed it: seasonal 1 .'v point in

March. And tnhugh snme small declines may occur during the srria;, the trend

of egg prices is expected 0o.- r!e _ureau cf Agric-ilt-iral Fi.nor..i*. to be. up-

ward unless consumer inccmes fa.ll rcr than iL ncw "',liev-d likely. Supplies

of eggs are not expected t. toe as g.rfat a. ir 193". St r-ie .to0ks are not

expected to accu'mulat:e tr s.'ch a prize a-. during ti.e part '-er, and a sab-

strantial reduction from 137 at a-rs li .el/ n the ..' a.irt 1 hollirngs o.f shell

and frozen eggs. ThV- effect. of th pi rjc.ble -al'-r hc-dings on eg; prices

in the last half of 1938 will tprnba '-. e t rais. ten ebove t-.hrce rf 1937.

The rice of chickFns ij d:clcring rel: ive :r. its 10-year average cf

corresponding months (.ee figure 1.) Pv nrid-vcar, with a larger hatch ex-

pected than in 1937, l.hioken prices are lik- lv to ro under those cf 1937 and

to remain belev those of a veer earlier throu.-hout the fall and winter. The

relative decline is believed to have been the result cf fellinr consumer in-

comes.. Su applies of poultry, both in storeae and or fYrm., r-re quite low.

Feed situation

In mnizt ycarE the cost ~rf poultry fad during thea p-ri d from December
to June rises relative ti the ',ri-e cif eags. In Jan.:;ary 1D2 3 this rise was
somewhat mcre t-.han e.verage but since then it bha b'en less than a-.v.rvge. By
March 26 the Chicago fee-.'-6g- ratii, v-s very lc.se t' the 10-vear avcLrage for
that date. The chart on the co'-t.r cf th. i.rch "Pcultry and Egg Situation"
showed rather clearly that th? feed--e ratio hals been above the 10-year
average since the middle of 19.53. T.ie decline in the past few- mor.ths in the
ratio relative tc the 10-y'ear average rar.s that fewer ergs ar' required to
buy 100 pounds of feed. This decline ].as b'cn the r.-.ult both of lcver feed
prices since the middle of February and of rising egg pr'.ceZ since then.


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P3S-16 5 -

Poultry storage

Stor..ge hold; a of po-iltry 1,-cline frjrn a *:i in J5iIualry to a
low p-int during th- su.-..vr. If-- Th'.i; p-riod the holi.'irFs *i.r.:. 12.-d to supple-
lent the usually. low receipts of fr. pJouJtry a1d henc, 'ir-: an i. p :art:nt
source of supply for consu spt ion. Wit.' stor-.r-e tocks .-uch 1-.- than in
1937 thr, is no li:c;lih-Od of such a I .r crr:-o-vr in aid-si :-r as l.-t
ydear. ThL out-of-stoar.v-,e m*.:.ve .ont of p sultry has ben pr )cedi:ie q at atb.ut
the usual r.-te consi:rir tr:- size of stocks. Or. Loth Febru r. 2.:. and
March 2b stor-'-c stocks at the 2: :J.rketE w:re ebout -.4 percent -,f thoer- a
year earlier.

Storr-e stocks an,. ..t--f- t.torw.:, .n-veient of fr.z.-.n oaultr- at 2S
Xar':ts

_____-.: i:'c'inrL- as of ___
Yer : Sto.,e : Out- .f-st r,-,' -, !.+t : Storage
.3: tocs : : stocks
-F 2t. : M',Lr_. 5 : !Lr. 12 : ML .- 10 : i.a .r. 2-L: lar. 2b
1,.00 1,0C .. 1,000 ,:' : 1,000 1,000
: ud' s .j'.'. ,i: o'. s r. u .S pouijnd pounds
Average
19N2-5..: -y,-e^ 3,040 3, 03 3. 27 4,o1: 71, 117

1937 ...... 121,7'5 5,1 6 '.,' 2 7,4 6b,47 96,200
9 ......: 77,939 3,: 4, ,2, 4 4,213 bl,719


Chicken prices

Th,'uu h the usi:1 ;,- -,',,,l ..iv n:i.t of chic". L: prices front Decomber to
May is upward, the far- prico,-: f chic':ens o:'. LIrch 15 ,-.. prcticatlly un-
chn-vg:.d fro-i that a _.mth :arii.r.

FAr.- price of chick.nr p:cr pru:.d

Ye ar : J : F-b. a ;.lr. : Apr. : '.1- : J lyj : S-pt. : Oct. : Dec.
: 15 ; 15 ;: 5 : 159 : 1]_ : _: : 15 : 1, : 15
: Cents Cer.t-s Cents Cents Cc..ts C -tc C:.nt.- C- '-its Cents
Average:
1925-34..: 1.1 17.2- 17.5 1.72 1.3 17.: 17.5 l.C 15.3

1936 ....... 16.5 16.9 1 .. 1 .9 16. 6 1".1 14.9 '14.0 12.6
1937 ....... 13.4 13.h i4.h 1-.2 14.- 15.3 17.4 17.6 16.4
1933 ......: '..7 16.0 15.9



Relative to the 10-.'ea-.r I avr,--e of trne cirr-'sponrlir7 date, chicken
prices have been fallin,- since October 1I (see ch--rt on pae 2). To some
extent this relative decline has been e. result ,f ,declinirqn consumer incomes
and hence is likely to continue as long s incorJ-.s decline. In the last
half of 1938, chicken prices are likely to ro beloa; those of 1937, largely
because of greater supplies of poultry, expected from this .'ear's larger hatch.





PSI3-1


N.na-"grici1l 'rI).L? ircC'Y -. -1 A S -25.-34, a~m'7-u 193-'-3
(Sear&.ilr .- c-re- c.'C ":.d'-e, 1924-29 = 100)

Year J n. :Ph. :tar. Apr. Lv 'A-r. :S t. :Oct. Dec.



l --.4 ...: '].o .,z 90.4 g..9 :9 .7 :3.6 u9., c9.1- ,.'9.4 3.3

1933 ....... 1: ..5 1.9- .2.' 33.1 4.1 E .' :7.4 S.7.9 9.8 1030.3
1 75 ....... ?l"2. Tqi. -.3 1 6.3 79 97 71 9.. o 95.3 9 .3
?5Y .


icing flock V'i.

T', s"'.* of the l ,' ing -lo,2k is r- ;v r?.'J t'. s.r-:e fxr:r 't b thn f-ed
rituat5 on. 7 .: f. r .'..r-.b e f dir c'. ".".i,. -i-ns f r r s n1 to cull leis
cevcrely tha.: .,'*:r .3;- 7'Ith tl.E f .-*C--r, ra3tio -.r f vor:.:a Lnr e3qr
producLion ti.o: "' ., ''. "[i i r i.u o'n C 1..i'2 t birds frrm
their p.-k iL. JLIi. 'y 4othe .o l t.' S r-,: r j -:, '-y tc be Lcss thn
the e.T'erJ r .*- ; o 2 p rce T... ci.., .s :.c J.'. iu .r 1. :. bean only
2.3 percent -'i'e t-E 1925-3'4 ver e r ;: ".n .2 .'rc-.t.


Averoe z b -r if 1-yi:'- e. .- i fir' fl ock r:r.-t n.,ay- f ...cnth

Yer J. Ap. Aug. S* S-pt. No1'. : Dec.

:I'ut- er IJurter i.'i:' .-r I-:rb r IF:-il r 1J'J- --r ?Nrter 'uur'-r iJ.jnb.'r

Av'rato
125-314 .: 37.5 J7.2 -4.7 :2.0 77.4 6.d, 66.1 75.7 1.9

1037 ... : 31.2 2.5 70.0 77.5 7).1 F.T 59.9 (9.3 74.4
1C35 ....: 7 .6 75.3 75.8


Eg; production

T:o r".- of E productiur. per .:.r..d' .:c-s 1 :c' p';ll..ts of lnying a.ge
continued at a '.ig. level cn 'larch 1, 10 perc t &ac'Ov the O-.;eur n'-rnge
for t.hi d-tte. .Lrto of production in J-.an.r-- a. br :.ar -'; .-, 7v-r, ..R.s -ore
thwi' 30 nercert nbove the c rrc2-.y.ci.'.- '.2-31 ar-.r'.:e. Ia ..i sprirg roaths
there is con'-:.'ni- ruc',, less varinti-on t- roi'c :r. i diff rent yetirs
than bthtre i- at most o-thr z nzc.mj. E-:.C6, t. sw 1 size of flocks is likely
to bring priluztion p'r flock d'ir-f the snri-; b- .'. tna.t of 1937 by from
3 to 8 percent. For the first time since J'u-., pr. ,cti :n per flck is below
the 10-y-ar av2rre.c for the corrA.3ro:'i-:-.! dI-o,.


- -







PES-16


- 7 -


EggF laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying a6e in farm flocks


Year .Jan. l.Feb. 1.Mar. I Apr. 1 May 1 -July 1. Sept.1 Dec. 1

lumberer Ilumber Number 'buibr Nrber Number INunber Number


Averac
1925-34 .: 16.5 24.2 38.4 52.8 5.1.


1937 .....: 22.0
1938 .....: 22.7


42.2 32.4


25.7 39.2 52.8 57.8 44.4 33.1l
32.2 4?.2


Egg market.inrs

Receipts of eggs at New Yrrk in March were running 1" pnrcnnt below
1937 arid C? pprcnt belcw the 10-year everagc. Fe-Pipts have ',een increas-
ing seasonally much less rapidly th'an usual. Tre overI,e gein in receipts
between the fi;r3t w -.k cf March ein the last is ?' F'irer t. Iis year the
gain has been only c percent. It is likely that rarketings during April,
May and June will f'"llor pr"odluz-'ion anr oc from c percent below market-
ings of these months cf 1,>77.

Receipts of egEs at 1Ncw Ycr'-, average 1925--4, annual 19.37-38

: Week -rd rg as cf 1. 1 8
Year :Jan. : Feb. : Lar. : Mar. : far. : ar. : Apr. : July
: 29 : 26 : 5 : 12 : 19 :26 : 30 : 2
:1, :OO 1,000C I ,C 00 O 1 ,000 ,o 1 ,0'O 1,'0O 1 ,oDC
:cases rases cases cases cares cases c:s:s cases
Average
1925-34 ...: 112.2 134.1 154.1 162.7 10.1.35 3D0.4 235.1 160.0

1937 .......: 152.0 115.2 125.5 152.8 179.6 190.7 213.8 151.5
1938 .......: 129.2 131.8 1c9.7 122.9 125.0 151.8


Egg storage stocks


To provide eggs fcr ccrns upti -n ;n the frIl an winter when production
is relatively lc.:, eggs are ordinary ly stored in the spring, but the int '-
stcrage season cortirues from an ut Ic:arch 1 t.. aboiu Augu-t 1. Eggs are
stored in the shell cr are broken and starred in frozen forT:. Figure 2 shews
that the proportion cf eggs stcr;d in frozen fcrn is rapidly and steadily
increasing; and if this trend continues into 1938 a proportion of about 35
percent might be expected.


15.3

18.6










FROZEN


EGGS AS PERCENTAGE OF U.S. TOTAL STORAGE
STOCKS ON AUGUST 1. 1916 TO DATE


PERCENT 1I

STOCKS ---------



I
30 ._




20


-i I I II V "


1916 "18 20 '22 '24 '26 '28 '30- '32


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICuLIURE


'34 '36 '38


NEG 32576 BUREAU OF >GPICULIURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2


CHANGES IN U. S. STORAGE STOCKS OF SHELL EGGS ON AUGUST 1.
AND IN RECEIPTS OF EGGS AT FOUR MARKETS, MARCH-JUNE
160 -

S.1 33
w I

*_ 140 *
-0
'30
CL
z 37 1919

in
025



u a
0 LL 20 35 336


90 100 110
RECEIPTS AT FOUR MARKETS'. MARCH.JUNE
(PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR)
*NEW YORK. CHIGAGO. BQSTON. AND PHILADELPHIA


NEG 31191 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 3


U S DEPARMENI OF AGRICULTURE








FES-1-6 9 -

In many years the chne in the rnoiurt -f c ?t. :'.d in the shell
his be-n propc. 1-t cral to t .: :-._e i, -5e "s .. ,' ..t th:. frur raaj -r
r. rl--et- in 'tr,' ],, -..pri r 'i a", Jun" r 1 s}. m in i- ire !.. I n ., if this
re!tic.nshiip prcTvils in 1>l38 ur.-i if r:rirts -.re -j-ruL f. percent less than
in the sane 4 months ,f 1c 3 h.n cr' g -": : f shl-l e-g on A.ugIst 1
would be- about 7 p' -rent 1 icr 1 han on 1.,,. ....' 1.; L. t S 'r, cr 9,10Ci ,0C 0
cases. It will be noticed thr i.n noc "'.r ni, c1.. rer i r, hip b.,-n fcl-
l owed ex act ,. M'4iry, cf 1he a,'r-,r- nt .i cr'-r. .ci .s .i.,' .: p i.,-.d by a c n-
siderat icn cf the [rcfit h-i' it- o. t.:- pr. nd et:-reg. a, cr. Thus, with
a storcg- m:rzin ( s.C- th'. -.brairy i zs. ,. of rT.,- ,, try a.:c.. '!r Si t: rticn) of
lcss than c..5 cents r.r ,-.::tn ]o-E :,L- th(. irdu-try -.s W-. wh .- Frba-hly lest
mrr.Ley ,n its orerat-ticns ,rnd w l'.- t :rd t,: t. tcr l-s bh. vl y in i -, ne"w season.
It is .=.stimi..ted tl.,t a fur:the-r 1, p r,:nt -.t 'din.- i tc.tal cf 17 recent) r.e-
diction in sl-hll -:1 g st.r-Le strc'-s on Au .iust 1, as c nc-ir d I with a ye-,r
e rlier, is lik ikly b ca'ire cf the lI-sf in '9.:7 r fl:ct d '- tiim n.rgin of
-2.0 cents. bsed crnly cn thl.s,- twvc consid .-.tic:. t Icr' fore, A'uust I
stortge stock: cf shi:-l mis 'ni .t .. :-stimr. td iat :i out 7, ,2C0,y'vC cases.
If these- rc-rezsent ,'5 p.:.rc rt of th1_ total .tc rig-c hcol din-s, z .'ZE pwr:cnt
being, frozen, then all .'_:. in strru-e would d be rst'r-t ,t. I :.t trout t 11 nil-
lijon eJECs, or -bbout 20 p-rcei:t 1.-s- t'h:in in 19'-37. 1h- ?'.:rt on th cc.-r
shows howv this comf-ir--rs v. ith th --r r ',7.r r .

.':th tiw- intc-stcr-ec sr -,scn just begir-.inu their o s.'-rv:tiori is nrt
to be considered ts fo.re-cast b-.it r th'r'-r :as oin i.ic. ti on cf s '.- r l b-
servir lei rp.l-ticnships w-i:h ixv. exist-d in pi 3st yv- rs. I.'m-ny cilrcumste.nces,
not ncf' forr.scn e.':v- bring rbc.ut v. v ry diffi-r-nt r .s r.--ge figur- by -u--'uust 1.


Eterage stc.;-'S ind stor-.-L mC7r,- .nt cf eggs t 26. m.arktt,
av:r2.-.. 19L 5-.4, :.ru:l lE."7-38

_: L2_ k rdin, as f 1 *.i -
Y'.e r : itor. ,g.- St:rjg nov,.:__t tr1.
: t cC .: t:: t :..:s
: "t-o. '? : .:r; 5 : -:'-, 12 : "ljr.' 29 : ,", r. 5 : '*a". 26
IC.. ". 1, ,: 1*, 1_ l. 0
.C,'( B. r .--. r*...:-,- n[3 .S f9 r:.2 .. CL S
Shell egs :
Av. 1925-34: 9-:0 t C3 .5 + 124 + 17 709

1927 ...: 219 + 2. 1C00 -" I + 171 F63
19.38 .... 14 13 + 1.3 ?2 7 621

Fr-r.zn s :
"'77 ....: .60 t 13 + 29 3R t- ? 757
13 8 .... 1,J41 12 7 + 17 4. 1i 1,540





FES-16 : -



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=p l.e-i t ile "-_r- v 1. .: c; i- i7::. r r :7 z prim t.-.?r L ast w;1
ter.: U. tier :ri:'i: 35 7.. t..?s of .r '.- f:re, this **sak r ^s~n*
;:r"~isr; ic :**? L"-." *" -: -- -:f'L--r rn-;tic" In --." 1: :T i.elf of
"e vy? r, if *r. .-' r ci-.'e: i nr t fall : -' re i-: o i n ncr, enr.ticirated,
t--m i -l ---e -::k- -. ill ;r:-balyv keEp ;rie abs:ve z:.:se :f 1C37.
-- C- r--e -s"?_-: 3:.- c:.-- .- i2.c-.es : .& i br r :t fe- fr- -bier .--.3
.-_- Circ"- t, e:i :re --. : :- t o:m -_c? i pnarcrt n-a : nri e i1_nf uer y--s Eg
:ri:. i. 1: '. i a.?-.5 'lf :-_" 7% r ." he .exT.?eted :c by ab-j- the s me9 as




IarT-e rri:-ec : r: er dirzer




: : -r : L -. : 1* r: : _" CenAs


.---.. ".. 3 a 5.4 35.7

S- "" 2- 7925 730.5
.: :. .: .. :.-- .C- 4 2 -.* 32.5 5.0
1i:?- .........: 2-. : -. :-, .i -.. -,.4 25.2 25.3 26.0
1933 ....... : 1.* 1-.4 I C.



















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