Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
February 1938
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00023

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text
'-I "/


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


PES- 14


FEBRUARY 1 1938


THE POULTRY AND EGG S I T U A T I ON


HENS AND PULLETS OF LAYING AGE': NUMBER PER FARM FLOCK ABOVE
OR BELOW 10-YEAR AVERAGE, 1ST DAY OF MONTH. 1925-38
NUMBER I I I I --,
I10-YEAR AVERAGE. 1925 34


IN FARM FLOCKS OF CROP REPORT rEPS


I I KDPAfTMEIN OF AGRICULTURE


AIG 12413 BuREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


EGGS LAID PER FARM FLOCK*: NUMBER ABOVE OR BELOW
10-YEAR AVERAGE 1ST DAY OF MONTH. 1925-38


a I MHuRTHEri or ABRICULTUEZ


*IN FARM FLOCKS OF CROP REPORTERS
NEB 31474 BUREAU OF 4GIICULTURAL ECONOMICS






THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34-100)
PERCENT I I I PERCENT,
NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO

O110 -- 200 1937-


150 ----
100


100- 19
90

180 -__________ -____ 50 ______ _
SI I I I
I S\ EGGS PER 100 HENS
160 ----RECEIPTS OF EGGS 19.38
AT NEW YORK
120 1937-- ----
140 .19 -

120 -1938- 0-
1000


80 so80

6 0 I .. .. I,,, I,, ,

FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS FARM PRICE OF EGGS

100 --- 100

1938
90 90



80 -- \ -- -- 0o -/--"a-- ----
1/ 188

70 1 I I I I I JI 70 fl I I I I 9 I
JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC. JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC.

U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 34064 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

FIGURE I








3 -

THE POULTRY AND EG G SITUATI 0 l

PES-14 February 1, 1938.

Summary

An outstanding fnvtor in the current poultry and egg situati-n, accord-

ing to the Eurpau of Agricultural Economics, is the small flock size with which

farmers have started out thn new year. The effect of this situation on egg

prices is at present offset by lower consumer incomes than in 1937, by large

holdings of frozen eggs, by a high rate cf egg production per bird, and by the

completion of a very unprofitable storage year. Hence, the outlook until mid-

spring is for egg prices below those of 1937. During the remainder of the year,

reduce production resulting from the smaller flock size is likely to bring a

gradual price advance above the corresponding prices of 1957.

The more favorable feed-egg price conditions this year will tend to

stimulate hatchings above those cf 1937. The outlook, therefore, is for lower

chicken prices in the last half of the year than in 1937. During the next few

months, however, low Foultry supplies, both on the farm and in storage, will

tend to keep prices above those in the first half of 1937,. But the non-seasonal

advance of last fall may prevent a full seasonal advance this spring.

Feed situation

While the cost of feed relative to the price of eggs has risen in January
by more than average (1925-34), the rise has been much less than in January a
year ago. Between 3 and 4 dozen fewer eggs are ncw required to buy lO pounds
of poultry ration than was the case in early 1937. This spring the period
when egg production is at its heaviest it is likely that the poultryman's feed
costs in terms of eggs will be near average and will be about two-thirds of last
spring's feed cost.









The feed-egg ratio at -.'hicgo, weekly, average 1925-34,
ar-nual 1937-3-8

S Dozens c -f eg-s retired to buy 10- pounds of poultry ration
Yer V'lree 1V ended as cf 196 8
Yer n.: JLn.: Jan.: Jan Jan.: Feb.: Apr. : July : Sept.: Tot.: Dec.
: 1 : 8 : 15 : 22 : 29 : 26 : 30 : 2 : 3 : 29 : 3
: D z. Do D.. 7 Doz. Dcz. Dcz. Lc. D-z. Doz. Dcz Doz.
Average
1925-34 ...: 4.16 4.06" 4.23 4.52 4. 2 6.04 6.43 6.71 5.C8 4.24 3.64

19.7 ..7...:. 6.98 7.76 P.79 9.30 9.n3 3.13 10.80 10.18 8.17 5.32 4.79
1938 ......: 4.89 5.30 5.40 5.88


Hatchings

rnHe of the.most important consequences of the change in the feed-egg ratio
frcm that of 1937 will be its effect in increasing the 1938 hatch. Some evidence
of this is already presc.nt in the reports cf increased zcmrn,:rcial hatchings during
December. The increase is estimated to be nearly 25 percent. While these hatch-
ings are primarily for winter broiler production, the tendency for larger hatchings
than F. year earlier is expected to continue.

Pou Itry Tr'rketings

Rh-ceiFtr of dress-d poultry at Iew Ycrk- in Jan,.uary '.cntinuzd abcut 16 per-
cent under th-se cf a :,ear earlier. ;'Vith v:-ry lwIr,.,j t cks of poultry cn farms, re-
ceipts during thk first half cf this year will r-,r:bbly re-main much below those
cf 1937 and "b.lov,' the 1925-34 avcrar.

hec-'ipts of drese-?d poultry rt I:ew Y' r, average 1925-34,
arn'jl 1.37-38

Year : _e_._. _. i c f 193iF
..rr. J'r 1~ n.l?..'' :Apr. 30 :MIy 28 :July 2
':1, 1b.1UJ.T1I7-,Ti1y. y.77-J .1,C"'. lb.,c 1.1,01 lb.
Average :
1925-34 : .3,949 3,220 3,C47 3,.-24 2,4?2 2,245 2,651 3,305

1937 ...: 2,492 2,495 3, 55? ,720 1,770 ?,419 2,342 3,739
1938 ...: 2,611 2,055 2,485


Poultry storage

Frozen poultry, starred during the period fr m September to January, is an
important source cf supplies for cennsumpticn during thc first half of the year,
when receipts of frish poultry -re the lowest. Stocks of frozen poultry in the
United States on January 1 were 34 F:rcent below the record stocks cf a year ear-
lier but were slightly above the 11-year average, 1925-34. The not out-cf-storage
moment during January at the 26 major stcrinr cities has been somewhat greater
in 1938 than in 1937.


FES-14


- 4 -







PES-14


Storage stocks and out-of-storage movement of frozen poultry at
2b markets

Week ending as of 1938
Year : Storage stocks: Storage movement : Storage stocks
_: Jan. 1' Jan. 8 : Jan. 15 : Jan. 22 Jan. 22
1 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
I pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds


Average
1925-34 ...:

1937 ......
1938 .......


91,745'

140,802
93,182


+ 4,662 + 622 -


* 1,616
S4l9


- 2,677
- 1,319


742 96,290


- 1,996
- 2,587


137,745
89,695


Chicken -prices .

The farm price of chickens rose from December 15 to January 15 but
not by so much as the average seasonal amount nor by so much as last year.
While low supplies of poultry, both on the farm and in storage, will tend
to keep chicken prices high this spring it is believed that part of the
seasonal price advance has been anticipated by the exceptional rise this
spring. Hence a less-than-average increase in prices is likely to occur in
1938.

Because of a probable increase in the hatch this year over last,
chicken prices in the last half of 1933 are expected to drop below those of
a year earlier.

Farm price of chickens per pound

Year Jan. Mar. : May July ;'Aug. ;Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
-* I "
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1925-34 ....z 16.g 17.5. 18.3 17.8 17.3 17.3 16.g 16.2 15.S

1936 ........ 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.1 15.1 14.9 14.0 13.2 12.6
1937 .......... 13.4 14.4 14.8 15.3 16.g 17.4 17.6 16.9 16,4
1938 .........: 16.7



Nonagricultural income, average 1925-34, annual 1936-37
(Seasonally corrected indexes, 1924-29 = 100)
: : *
Year :Jan. Mar.' May 'June 'July :Aug. :Sept.:Oct. *Nov. Dec.
Average a
1925-34 ....r 91.0 90.4 89.7 89.8 89.6 89.6 89.4 39.4 89.1 88.8

1936 .......... 81.5 82.5 84.1 85.1 86.S 87.4 87.9 89.8 92.6 100.9
1937 ........ 92.9 95.3 96.9 96.9 97.7 98.2 96.8 96.3 95.1 98.3


- 5 -






P.S-14


Laying flock size

The laying flock is usually near its maximum size for the year on
January 1. This year numbers of hans and pull ts of laying age in farm
flocks on January 1 were at their lowest point of record for that date -
8 percent below 1937 and 12 percent below the 10-year average, 1925-34.
The cover chart shows laying flock size (adjusted for seasonal movement by
comparison with the 10-yer average of each month). The January figure
is farther below average than any month has been in the period since 1925.
The graph has a distinctly cyclical character, the low points occurring
rather regularly at 3-year intervals. It is likely that the first quarter
of 1938 will mark another such low in numbers of laying birds.

Average number of laying hens in farm flocks on the 1st day of month

Year Jan. Feb. Mar.' May : June Aug. "Sept. Nov. Dec.
u.Number Number Number Numbe r Number Number Number Number Number
Average :
1925-34 .. 87.5 37.2 s4.7 77.4 73.4 66.s 66.1 75.7 81.9

1937 ......: 84.2 62.5 EO.0 73.1 08.5 62.1 59.9 69.3 74.4
1938 ..... .77.4


Egg production

Though the numnbr of eggs laid on January 1 per 100 hens and pullets
of laying age continued at record high levels for this time of year, it
was but little above that at the beginning of 1937. It is likely that the
extreme cold weather of late January has brought egg production par hen
down below that of February 1, 1937.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in farm flocks

Year C Jan. 1: Feb. 1* Mar. 1I May 1 July 1Sept. l:Nov. 1 'Dec. 1
numberr Number Number Number Number Number Number Number
Average 1
1925-34 ...: 16.5 24.2 38.4 55.1 42.2 32.4 17.0 13.9

1937 ........: 22.0 25.7 39.2 57.8 44.4 36.1 21.1 18.6
1933 ......... 22.7



The small flock size, even with the high rate of egg production re-
ported as of January 1, has brought total production below thnt of early 1937.
Total production, however, was still the second largest on record for January
1 and 21 percent above the 10-year average for the first of the year.








Eggs laid daily per farm flock


Year Jan. l.Feb. 1 .Mar. 1 .Lay 1 .July 1 .Sept. 1. Nov. 1: Dec. 1
:Nurmber i'iLrber Humber 'umber '-irr.ber !Furrter 1!umber Number
Average
1925-34 14.6 21.1 32.7 42.2 29.2 21.1 13.0 11.5

19.37 .....: 1.5 21.6 31.7 41.8 27.9 21.1 14.7 14.1
1938 ..... 17.7


Egg marketing

Egg receiFts at Pew York since January 1 havebeen about 11 percent
above average btt much below those in the same period of 1937. They are
now increasing seascnally.

Receipts of egFs at New York, average 1925-34, annual 1937-38

.eel' ending as cf 1-93F
Year Jan. 9 :Jan. 15 Jan. 22: Jan. 29:Feb. 26:Apr. 30:May 28 'July 2
:1, r, iC 1 nr'u 1 C,.' 17 i'ir, 1 1 0
S1,00 1,' 1, 1,00 1,b 1,000 1,000 1,,000
cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average
1925-34 : .2 94.6 101.1 112.2 134.1 255.1 -217.9 16Y.0

1937 ..... 123.7 153.4 176.6 150.F 1/115.2 213.8 193.4 151.5
1938 ...... 5.2 49.4 131.7

I/ 5-day week.

Egg storage

Stc-ks of shell eggs in e.ld storage at 26 majcr string centers are
now belcw those cf early 19.37 and are also bel.-w the 1'925-34 average. St cks
rf fr zen eggs, however, o.n January 22 were more than twice as great as in
1937. These large frozen egg holdings may lead to a reduction in egg breaking
this spring arnd hence to an increase in the quantity ,cf eggs tc he consumed at
cnce or to be stored in the shell.

Egg storage margin

Eggs are stored mainly during the period from March through June and
ccme out of storage chiefly during the. peric-d from SepteImber through Jaznuary.
The difference in average prices between th',se two periods is a rough measure
,f the average gross profit cn the season's storage o perationrs. From this
margin an allowance must be made for storage costs -f all kinds; these costs
are estimated tc aver-ige from .3.5 to 4.C0 cents per dozen. The results of the
pre-eding storage season, from th) standpoint of their operator, often have a
bearing on the levcl cf egg prices in late winter and early spring, and tend
to affect the quantity of cgrs rtorcd.


PES-14


- 7 -













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st age ys~hi. fits at T;-r -s- :-i 7 -:. i- -.:-s"? r ? s e as
- i -_-. s ,, .. -... .... *,.. ..-..







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m_-ot f are of a y-9 =.'_-t r, -- i- ._- e .-, f-. Z-e s I
-_ 'o szewil, ss: r7e'-- :- :j ^-{ -- : r. 'riz _.is_
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I_ -e :-. -. I -- p ezt
S-.. .--. .i..- .


'-"-' ;- --- S. -. 2 .- i. '-3. --.2







9 -

Suipplemenitary Data

Eggs, rer dozen: Estir.ated storage martin, 1916-37


: Scascnral average : Seasonal average :
Year : -t. pkl. firsts : refriA. firsts at : Storage martin
: nt New York : New York :
: (qr. June : Sent, Jan. :
: Cents Cents Cents


33.70
37.81
46.37
51.68

56.44
36.78
29.50
30.92
39.40
34. ?7
3' .31
3.15

38..22?


.........




****CC***:

....... S
9.4.*..*. S
*............
*............
... .. .. .

*............
.*







*..........:
*...........:
.~... .. .:
e........:
....o.ee:
........:
....i.l.:*
Ofln~ao*
.aa~oam*
,,a~eoo*
.@me~oe


10.43
2.29
9.49
5.78

10.52
8.31
1.79
2.56
12.86
2.48
4.63
3.43
.33
8.01


23.27
35.52
36.3?
45.90

45.92
28.47
27.71
28.36
2J. 54
31.79
31. 56
25.72
30.54
30.21

25.56
19.0.3
14.38
14. 30
17.47
25.09
21.24
22.52


l/ Prelimrinary.


PES-14


21.32
19.42
23.43
16.42
22.48
23.66
2 .82 -
I/ 20. 65


1923
.1921
1322
1923
1924
1925
1926
1327
1923
1929

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937


4.34
.34
9.05
2.12
5.C1
1.40
5.58
I/ 1.97




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
llllIII~lll llll llllll ll
3 1262 08903 9779







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