Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
January 1938
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00022

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

PES-13 JANUARY 3, 1938


THE P 0 ULTR Y AND EG G S I TUATI O N



PJD----------------------- --------------------------------
U.S. COLD STORAGE HOLDINGS OF POULTRY AND EGGS ON JANUARY
POUNDS
I MILLIOh5S
POULTRY

150 Turkeys
~~150 -- Other poultry .



100


10 -






CASES
I MILLIONS I
EGGS

I Frozen
Shell











-- -






0 i
1917 '19 '21 '23 25 '27 29 "31 '33 '35 "37
ESTIMATED FROM STOP4CE HOLOINCO OF 96 CITIES


U. DSPARIMENT Of AGRICULTURE


tEG 3296 HUREgIU 01 *GRICULtuRIL ECONOMUCS








THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34-100)
PERCENT I I PERCENT I I
EGGS PER 100 HENS SIZE OF LAYING FLOC


120 937 /--100 -

r / 1937 1936

100 95


1936
80 90 1-


I I I I I l
250 ---
CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO FARM PRICE OF CHICKEN

200 1-9371 100
1936 % %

150 9---j- 80 -- --'




,,, -.1937


5 0 ... ,... .. ... .. .. ... ...I. .. .. I .. .. 7 0 1 I I I I

EGG FUTURES PRICES FARM PRICE OF

197 100 I,.
100 *




80 \

,-/ 80 1937
JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC. JAN. APR. J19ULY 6


60 70
JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC. JAN. APR. JULY OC


:T DEC


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 32557 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIrS


FIGURE I







-3-


THE POU LTRY AND EGG SITUATION

PES-13 January 4,1938
Summary

The most important development in the poultry -and egg situation during

December, says the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, was the large out-of-

storage movement of shell eggs. -This increases the chances of more favorable

egg prices to the producer this winter and next spring.

Other developments include (1) the continued high rate of egg rrod'auction

per hen, (2) the earlier-than-usual peak in cold storage stocks of frozen

poultry, and (3) the record low numbers of laying birds on farms.

Egg prices usually decline from icvenmber or December until spring, but

a decline as sharp as in early 19Z7 is unlikely because oi the miuc smaller

size of farm flocks. Also, normally rigorcus ,'.ir.ter leather will tend to

curtail the high rate of egg production arnd, cause narketin7s tc, be under those

of 1937. Spring prices, therefore, may be some',ihat above those of i',7 and,

as the year progresses, the spread between 1'.B and 1'?77 is ex.pectd to .riden

unless incomes decline more sharply than is now anticipated.

The early peak of cold storage holdings of frozen poultry, together

with fewer poultry on farms, will tenJ to keer chicken prices in the first

half of 19i8 above t hose of a year earlier. On the other hand, declining

consumer incomes, at least in the fore part of this period, will tend to

keep prices from rising above the 1925-34 average during this period. In-

asmuch as a prospective larg-r -,ath in 19'. is expected to increasFe the

poultry supply in the last half of the :.'ear, chicken prices tfien will prob-

ably be under those of the :,'ear before.







PES-13


Feed situtipon

The feed situation, as measured by, the feed-.E.g ratio at Chicago, con-
tinues to become a li-tle more favcra.le to t-.e poultryman. On the average
in the years 1925-3hL this ratio rose fror about the middle of November until
June. This year the rise so far hLs h en less than average. Note in the
chart on page 2 tiat the ratio has ieclinel s-tadil-.' relative to its 1925-34
average, since last spring. This decline is expected to continue into early
1338 so that the feet-eg ratio will probably fluctluate close to or somewhat
below average during. the spring of0 1" '38. In other -vords, during the period
of heaviest eg- production in 1938, the pou1tr.t-man.'s feed costs, in terms of
eggs, ar-- not likely to be higher than average, and -ill be about t-,o-thirds
of last spring's feei cost.

The feed-ec ratio at Chicago, by -.'eeks, everse 1?25-3$ annual 1936-37

: Dozens of esc r:oir- tc- ay 100 c,;ind-i of poujltry/ ration
Year ----______k n._el gs rf !i7"..
:Jan. :Mar.: Jine:A.J--. :Stot.:Oct. :ov. :1ov.. :Dec. :ec.:Dec. :Dec.
So- : 5 : 7 : : : 2 : a : -7 : : 11 1 : 25

Average
1925-3'-. : n6 6.20 .93 6.3 =.5 .02 3.97 3.%0 3.4 3.92 4.13 4.18

193. ..... .22 5.11 5.O 7.71 7.99 7.?7 r.S 9 .`7 5.92 6.4 7.08 6.93
1337 ..... 7.7 9.17 11.23 s.90 5.17 .03s U.c? ..i9 7. 4.g8 44.-5 .87


Eatchinas

Cne of the most important consaeqrances nf this change in the feed-egg
ratio from that of 1937 will be its effect in increasing the 1931 hatch. Some
evidence of this is already present ir. t.e reports of increased commercial
hatchings during NYvember. While these natchings are primarily for winter
broiler prod--ic-ton, the tendency for larger Latchings than a year earlier is
erected to continue.

Receipts of dressed poultr.y- at New York, average 1925-34, annual 1936-37

Week, cadeiE7 of 10'7
Year :: 6 : ov. 27 : Dfc. : Dac. 11 Dec. 1 Dec.'25

:L il co b. 1.0I 1b.- 1.O3( lbo 1.000 lb. 1.000 Ib.

Average,
,19.5-3 ....: 84,43 1,8'41 7,h39 5,283 7,234 11,630

1936 ...........: 5,207 17,671 9,15h 5,659 4,797 13,855
1937 ........... : 5,273 7,o4h 4,S58 ,7'5h 11i,626 7,121


_ h _







PES-I1


'oultry marketing

Receipts of dressed poultry. at New York in December were about 16 per-
cent less than a year earlier. The heavy receipts during October and Novem-
ber relative to the year before reflected a heavy sale of older birds. This
situation is not likely to be rqpeasted soon. With very low stocks of bird's
on farms and with a small hatch last spring there will be fewer birds for
marketing during the next 6 months than was the case in 1937.

Po ul try tOrage .

Storage stocks of frozen poultry at the 26 markets have continued
above the 1325-3- average being 7 percent above on December 2' but the
into-storage movcmi-nt has fallen, off very rapidly this year. The peak of
storage holdings has been earlier trcin Iusual and, t-il-r close to the 1925-37
average- p. ak, is about 30 percent less than the record peak of last year.
Since the storage stock is largely : used up before July and is a major source
of supply until then, this mcans a distinct reduction in the volume of poul-
try available for cons. Totion ir. the first half of 19,30 as compared rith the
first half of 1937.

.Storage stocks of frozen pol tr7.; 3t 2- marKe-ts

We,-, ,: ^i t ^ od 1a ,:

Year :Storage: I.to-.tora- mvnc.-t : Storage stocks
:Nov. 6 :1ov. 27:Dec, h :ec. ll:Der. -:D ec. 2 ;De Jan. 1 I/
: i,0i 0 1 ,C1o 1,Ofla 1, o, 1, o-- 1, 0 0 1 '. 0 If
: rounds n dn oou s nds o ponds s toands, r.ou-nds pounds

Average
1925-34: 48,33? 6,181 8,2140 S,755 ,Su49 3,16.4 37,639 96,410

1935 ... : 39,5.4S 4,370 7,9- 10,l6.2 ,ll3 71 77,025 Sls,85S
1936 7... 75,36 4 8, 9.5 9,61 13,1 0 ?, 7,S 7,2' 132, 52 1n, 802
1937 ... : 9,84S9 6,o?3 12.0Wo 4.735 1,950' 199 93,765

l/ Of year following.

Chicken Dri.7es

The declin-e in the farm price of chickens from November 15 to December
15 half a cent was about the average seasonal decline between these dates.
Chicken prices usually rise from December 15 to May 15. The average rise is
16 percent. With consumer incomes no-" declining and some farther decline ex-
pected, chicken prices are not lir:elr to advance rs much as average. While
they -vill probably be much above 1937 they are not likely to exceed the 1925-354
average. The effect of short poultry supplies has largely been reflected in
the present relatively hi.i price and in the inse-.sorial ris-e -hich led to it.


- 5 -








Chick-..n price: in the last half of 1938, however, are expected to be
below these of a year before, lr.rgely because of an increased hatch. Any
advance in cinsum'r income -)f course, would t-nrd to offset this effect.


Fnr.-. price of chi cken- per p-iund


Yc r Jr.n. 1 'lar. ;ay ': July 1 Aug. : Sepit. Oct. o K v. Dec.

: Cents Crnts C nt t .'e,'-: Cents Cents .Cents Cents Cents


Average
1'9 5-34 ......

1935 .........
1936 ......... .
19 7 .........


i ts.8


12.4
1 5.4
13.4


17.3 17.3 16.8


1. .2
16.6
14.4


15.7
16.-3
1 P


14.0
15.1
15.3


14.1
1.5.1


15.4
1i.9
17.4


15.7
14.0
17.6


16.2 15.8


15.9
13.2
16.9


16.0
12.6
16.4


Turkey prices

Th: f.Arm pric- cf turkeys -n D0c-arber 15 '.6.s r' percent above the price
a year earl i-r, resulting chi efly fro,?. a reduction t st im..ted at 10-percent -
in thcS 1937 turkey!. cr-p fronr tnat -.f I?$. Thi.. higf!'ir turkey prices and lower
feed cst-L this y:e-.r r.c c:mpg red rith list will probably induce a larger hatch
Pf turkeys in 1'.38 t xi in 1987. Hence fall prices in 193? may be expected te
be lowcr than those i,, 1937. Again, this lik-lihocd cf lower prices in the latter
part of the- [,e.r wiuld be rffs.-t by slightly higher inrrme-!.


Farm price Af turkey: pyr pcurd


Year cet. Iov. Dec. Jan.
: Cent s 'nts Cents C, ern ts

Average
1925- 4 .......... ...... ...: 2 .3 '2. 22. 22.2

1935-3 ................... .. ... 19.9 21.3 19.9
1936-37 .................... : 1..9 15.0 14.3 14.1
1937-38 .................... 1: 1 .7 17.9 1 .C'



rNonayricIAltural irncrire ..ver-ag- 1925-54, annual 1936-37
LSeascnally corrected indexes, 1924-29 100)

Year jan. ar. ay i June July Aug. Stzpt. Oct. Nov.. Dec.

Average
1925-34 91.0 90.4 89.7 89.8 89.6 89.6 89.4 89.4 89.1 88.8

1936 .... 81.5 82.5 84.1 86. 86.8 87.4 87.9 89.8 92.6 100.9
.1937 ... 92.9 95.3 96.9 96.9 97.7 98.2 96.8 96.3 95.1


FES-15


- 6 -


17.5 1i .. 17.8





FES-13 _

Lrying flock size

Poultrym.cn usually build uo their laying flocks during. th:- lst 4
months of the year, so that by Jwnuary 1 the flock is at its mExir",um sizc. The
1938 flock size may be t;r,- smallest An record fnr that date. By Dccer.ber 1, 1937,
the gain per flock frnm September 1 wvas nl", 14.5 bird-., a percent 1.,S than
average nnd 25 percent less than he Ein fror the -rLt period L. ,',,r carlier.
The flock size on Dczc-.ber 1 was thl lowest nn r3eerr1 for the moc.th.

Average nu-b.-r nf laying hens in farm flock'- cn the 1st day of month

YL.:.r J-.n. W Iu',r. ; y : : : o t. : t Dee.
nDr:.r I'.t Tr ,ur'b r u'.t-, r 'u, F-.t rIi-b tr !Juznber !urr:ber 1'u.ber
Average
1925-34 : P7.5 84.7 77.4 73.4 6?. 66.1 70.4 75.7 ,1.9

1935 ...: 78.3 75.8 6.9.1 65.1 .2 F.,.5 65.1 70.5 7G.6
196 ...: 3..6 7C.7 70.5 66.5 6).0 .9 67.' 72.4 79.1
1337 ... .: S0.0 735.1 68.5 t .- 59.9 64.3 69.3 74.4


Rate of eE [rrjduction

"..: n- r nf eggs laid [ -r 10C h, nr a.- pTull ts r.f lic,ring a;-, continued
at recrr I hih r, levels on Decc rber 1. Ev n .ri h the reduced size of flock, Fs
compared vrith other years, the hiTh r-te orf production rpr hen is estim'-ted to
.have brnught-total .egJ product'n ,s h-igh as that of any December 1 of record and
to 13 percent ab-vye the 1925-34 D2cermbc-:r 1 :x er ,-c.

Egg: l-id p-r 100 hens end pullF ts of I 'ir.g 1 .gc in farr. flrcks

Year : J-. 1 : 'ar. 1 Y L'ay 1 July 1 Sep-. 1 Oct. 1: No-.. 1 tDec. 1
:-- rar umtr Yurr iub,- TJ. .T-r 'Tiber !Tu-t,-: N umber
Average :
1925-34 1: 1.5 8A.4 55.1 4?.? 3 .4 ;5.0 1.9 13.9

1936 ... 19.1 32.6 56.5 44.2 31.4 25.1 16..1 16.0
21.7 ... : 220 9.2 57.8 44.4 36.1 28.8 21.1 18.6



Eg; rmark:tin-s

Ef- receipts during December continuc-d to: exc-t d those of r- year earlier
and Ul'.- toSL of the 1925-354 December nveragrc. i.'ost of thl-is e.xcss represents
the hi.-er r*.te of c&g- production per h2n. RPcccipts of e.gc will continue to
incre?.a:. *-.son.lly u.til spring. It is expected th.t., with nrr:rm..l v.inter weather,
they ill f-ll blow.- these of a year earlier.









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PES-13 9-

Egg prices

The facm price of ,TWs fall 2 cents from Ilovember 15 to Deccnib.:r 15.
While this was true also in 19.36, t-.e 1935-34 average change was a slight
advance. Egg prices us':allv decline from Loveirer or Iecember until spring.
The decline in !98 is aot, expected to be so great as the sharp itop of
1937, m.ninly bcc-use cf thi-e much E-n,tller flzok size. This factor of flock
size will :ior: t:an offset teo tenler.cy of declinirc consu-ner incomes to
increase ti:e eea.-onal drop in egr: prices.

Sprir.g prices, tn.er-fore, rmi.,- be somewhat abov3 those of 1937 -rid,
as the ;'.ar proc.rsse33 the spread uetaeen 1339 ,rni 1337 is expected to
widen uonlers incomes decline more sharply than is now .-nticipCLtcd.

F.-arm prices of e:gs per dozen


Y...r Jan. ..o.r. i M ay July- Aug. Scpt.. Oct. lov. D'c.
Cents Cents Cnt s ,c:nts Ctn ts Cents Ce-it Cunt L Cents
Ave rar e
1925-34 ..: 31.0 19.3 1.,7 2 Z. 22.0 23.7 30.0 35.4 35.7

1935 ......: 5.0 15.6 21.4 21.7 22.7 323.4 27.9 (. 1 26.7
1936 ......: 22.8 17.5 1i.1 2\.,' 23.4 24.5 .7.6 32.5 3-''.5
1337 ...... 23.1 19.9 17.9 I.4 2).4 2. .9 .C..2 20c. 26.0




A-vera.c closing prices of r.-'fziterator standards at Chicago for
delivery in Dcce.'..b.r 1/


S~;Neek ended ias of 1937
Yerr : Mar. M: ay :Sect. : Nov. : i.ov. : ec. : Dec. : fec. : Dec.
6 : 1 4 : 6 : 27 : 4 : 11 : IS : 25
: Cent? Cents Cents C-nts Cents Cents Cents Cent. Cents
Average j/
192"-34 ..: 26.1 26.4 27.8 26.F 27.2 27.1 26.D 26.2 25.8

1936 ...... : 21.4 22.3 24.8 26.8 29.1 29.6 29.7 27.9 26.8
1937 ...... : 25.1 24.1 22.3 12.5 18.3 19.3 18.4 19.7 20.5


1/ December deliver,-192Z-26, and after November 30 in 11 .'years.
ilovember delivery 1927-31 and November 1-llovember 50 in all years.
October delivery 1932-37 to October 31.




IIMItIIi ii
3 122 -003 M972

.:i1