Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
November 1937
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00020

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text
l I


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


PES- 11 NOVEMBER 1, 1937


THE P O ULTR Y AND EG G S I TUATI O N





Chickens i i Farm Flocks, by Classes,
October 1, 1930-37


NUMBER I I I I I
F Pullets, all ages

60

--Hens
40 -



20 Other chickens ""


|,I I I


U1930 1931
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937
NEG 31674.- BUREAU OFAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


Hens and Pullets, All Ages, in Fani
Flocks, October 1,1930-37
NUMBER I I I
PER Hens and pullets of laying age
FLOCK

60 -

50 Pullets not of laying age

40 lS i-a l

30 -


20 Pullets of laying age
10 -
n I I I -- I I


1930 1931
U.S. EPARTMENTOFAGRICULTURE


1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937
NEGU31679-. BUREAU OFAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS










THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34=100)
---- I I I I PERCENT I I


I i 120 ---a" I 1936-
150 1 1936-37 -


1 I 00-- 100 ---- ---- -----



5 80 -%9


0 %
AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV DEC JAN 60 I i j
250 1 I
CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS

200 1937 -00
1936 %


150 -- -? 90 -- 1936

I i

100 -- --\- --80 ---- ---

I.' %, 1937
50 ... 70 _9_ .III__ I

EGG FUTURES PRICES FARM PRICE OF EGGS

1937 N100 -%.
I I r/ 198





80-
.- 80 I- 1937
9 J 1936 f


60 A R ..J .. L ... I ... ..IA 70 I UI Y I 1 I I
JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC. JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC.


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 32800 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS






UIr:TED STATES :F.PA-T:.NT O0 AGRICULTURE
Tueau of Agricultural Economics
',asni ngton

P3S-Il November 1, 1937

THE POULTRY AND EG G SITUATI 0 T


Summary

Important developments in the poultry and egg situation during October,

says the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, were (1) the continuance of the

non-seasonal rise in farm chicken prices to a new high for the year, (2) the

relatively heavy poultry marketing in the last half of the month, (3) the

continued less-than-average seasonal advance in the farm egg prices, and (4)

the institution of an egg purchasing program by the Agricultural Adjustment

Administration.

The heavy poultry marketing, as shown by receipts at New York, may be

largely at the expense of laying flocks, which will probably be quite small

on January 1 relative to other years. The sale of poultry is due partly to

high chicken prices and partly to low egg prices. The aim of the egg

purchasing program is to stimulate a more nearly av=r- e seasonal gain in egg

prices in order to check the tendency to diminish laying flocks. _--n- rate of

egg production per hen has continued so. high, with the favorable ws.ather this

fall, that even with a small number of layers, total egg production is

estimated at much above average for the period.

Feed situation

The feed-egg ratio at Chicago during October continued to remain about
30 percent above the 1925-34 average. Though this is not a definitely favor-
able relation of prices from the standpoint of feeding for heavy egg production,
it is much more favorable than was the case at this time in 1936. "-, f,':.itir
great improvement in the feed-egg price situation is likely until egg prices
advance above those of the year before -- and this is not anticipated until
early 1938. During the first half of 1938 the ratio is expected to be :rach
lower than in the same months of 1937 and it may go below the 1925-34 average.







PES-11


The feed-ogg ratio at Chicn.-o, by weeks, average 1925-34,
annual 1936-37


S pDozens of eggs retired to buy 100 pounds of poultry ratio-s
: Week ended as of 1937
Year :Jan. :Mar. : May :June :Aug. :Sept.:Oct, :Oct. :Oct. :Oct'. :ITo'. :-Pc.
: 9 : 6 : 1 : 5 : 7 : 4 : 2 : 9 : 16 : .3 : 6 : 4
: Doz. Doz. Dos. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.


Av-r-je :
1925-34: 4.06 6.20 6.43 6.98 6.38 5.68 5.02


10-yr. av:

1936 ...: 5.22
1937 ...: 7.76


3. "7 3.64


4.67 4.56 4.32


5.11 6.01 5.60 7.71 7.99 7.37
9.17 10.80 11.23 8.90 8.17 7.08


7.04 6.79
6.20 5.81


65
5.


Poultry marketing


half of
reflect
low t~


Receipts of dressed poultry at New York advanced sharply
October. They exceeded both 1936 and the 2125-34 aver
the sale of laying stock during a period of hi,-h chick
prices.


Receipts of dressed poultry-at--ew-Ye-rke-average 1
annual 1936-37


Year :
*


July
3


Aug.
7


: Sept.
A 4


Week ended as of 1937
Sept. : Oct. :
c a


Oct.
9


: 1,000 1,0 '0 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,COO 1i,,0(
: iLOds pounds pounds pounds ponispons pouns poLr.is
Average :
1925-341 3,305 3,005 3,587 3,922 3,963 4,156 4,283

1933 ...: 3,729 3,826 3,239 4,134 4,571 4,573 4,089
1937 ...: 3,739 3,079 3,877 3,538 3,873 4,193 5,050


.6 5. 5.92
,6 3





y in t h: L.i Pt
2a0e. T-nis nay
:en pricn'. urd







: 0-t. : Oct.
I p7. P 7:


1,000
pounds


4,521

4,727
5,125


Poultry stora-e

The net into-storage movement of ooultry did not 'begin thiz. y.- until
October, movement out-of-store,;e exceeding that going in during t-e. prEvious
months. This is rather a late start. Stora-e stocks of frozen poultry, c..t the
26 cities on October 23 were 23 percent below those of 1936, though 20 orcent
above the 19.J5-34 average. When storage stocks reach their e:atonal p-rJk in
January or February they are expected to be somewhat above average but not
nearly so large as a year earlier.


..


- 4-









Storage stocks of frozen poultry at 26 markets


:Storage : .Into storage movement : Storage
: stocks : __ week ended as of 1937 _: stocks
Yer : Sent. : Oct. 2: Oct. Oct. 16 Oct. 23: Oct.
: 423
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: ornd s po-nds pounds pounds t'ouns poandds
Average
1925-4 .....: 33,317 1,331 1,601 1,940 2,585 5 2,602

1935 ............: 24,395 1,376 1,142 1,155 1,524 30, 33
1936 ............ 46,702 3,722 3,667 3,307 2,708 65,795
1937 ............: .6,o0 132 1,795 1,j28 3,290 50,898


Ci'A-:er. prices

In most years chicken prices decline in the last half of the year.
This year prices are advancing, end are 2b percent higher than last year
at this time.

Farm price of chickens
per pound

Year Jan.' Mr. May J-ly' Aug. Sept., Oct. Nov. Dec.
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1925-34 ....: 16.8 17.5 18.3 17.8 17.3 17.3 16.3 16.2 15.8

1935 ............: 12.1; 14.2 15.7 l14.o 14.1 15.4 15.7 1i5.9 1 .0
1936 .. ....... .: 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.1 15.1 14.9 14.0 13.2 12.6
1937 ...........: 13.4 14.4 14.8 15.3 16.S 17.4 17.6


This rise in price now may be at the expense of the usual seasonal
rise that occurs from December to May. While poultry storage stocks in
the first half of 1938 will probably be less than in the first half of 1937,
the effect of this on chicken prices may be offset some-hat by a possible
decline in consumer incomes. Though chicken prices in this period are ex-
pected to -e greatly above those of 1937 they are not likely to exceed the
1925-34 average.

In the last half of 1938 the effect on chicken prices of the pros-
pective increase in hatchings may be partly offset by possible advances in
consumer incomes. Chicken prices then are expected to be. somewhat below
those of the last half of 1937. There is no basis now for anticipating a
seasonal decline in this period greatly different from average.





FES-11


Turkey prices

The. farm price of turkeys on ,Ltob'er 15 was 5 percent above the price a
year earlier. As was pointed out last month this is :r result that could be ex-
pected in view of the estimated 10 percent reduction in the 19.7 turkey -*rop from
that of 1936. The hicghr *urLehy,, prices and. lower feed costss this ye.r as compared
with last will probably induce a larger hatch of turkey's in 19.,' tlian in 1937,and
hence fall and winter prices in 1938 may be expected to be low-:r tn.-Ln in 1937.

Farm price of turkeys per pound

Year Oct. Nov. D.c. Jan.
Cents Cent s Cent Cents
Average
1925-34 ........: 20.8 22.5 .2

1935-36 .............. : 15.9 19.9 '1.3 19.9
1936-37 .............. : 15.9 15.0 14... 14.1
1937-38 ...............: 16.7


Nonagricultural income, average 19.'5-34, nrnu 1 193i,-,
(Seasonally corrected i:l-:.es, 1924-29 = i'0)

Year Jan. -.ir. May June July Aug. Sept.*, Oct. L c.
Average


1925-34 ..: 91.0

1936 .......: 81.5
1937 ....... : 92.9


90.4 89.7 89.8 89.6 89.6


?9.4 89.4 3S.8


82.5 84.1 85.1 86.8 87.4 87.9 89.9 100.9
95.3 96.9 96.9 97.7 98.2 9c6.


Layirn flock size

Thile the avera-e size of the farm laying floe.! in.r..asd from S- ptemter
1 to October 1 by a little more than the usual seasonal amount, by 7.3 percent
as compared with the 1925-34 av,--r-i o of 6.5 percent, this relative rate of in-
crease is not likely to be maintained during the fall C.na '.iintLr.

Average number of laying hens in farm flocks on the .: Is da:' of month

Year Jan. Mar. May June 0. Au,. pt. Oct. ov. Le.
:Numbers uITL1,:rs Numbers Numnbers Numbers Iumtr'ers !Uimbb-rs iu'mb rs INumbers
Average
1925-34..: 87.5 84.7 77.4 73.4 66.8 6C.1 70.4 75.7 81.9

1935 .....: 78.3 75.8 69.1 65.1 59.2 5E.5 65.1 70.5 76.6
1936 .....: 80.6 76.7 70.5 :.6.5 60.0 59.9 66.9 72.4 79.1
1937 .....: 84.2 80.0 73.1 08.5 62.1 7 9.' 64.3


- 6 -








PES-11


On October 1 the farm laying flock is largely
These were as numerous in 1937 as in 1936. They are
will be most heavily culled in the next month or so.
ings were some evidence of this culling.


made up of mature hens.
the class of birds that
The heavy poultry market-


Pullets, on the other hand, both of laying age and younger, are
fewer than in 1936. It is from these that the bulk of the 1938 laying
will be formed. This is the main basis for expecting the laying flock
1, 1938, to be much smaller than at the beginning of 1936 and probably
than in 1935 when flocks were the smallest of record for January 1.


much
flock
on January
smaller


Average numbers of chickens in farm flocks, by classes,
October 1, 1930-37

Pullets
Year : All Mature : :O Not of: Other
: chickens hens .Laying age:aying age : Total: chickens
: Number Number Number Number Number Number

1930 .....: 146.3 50.3 24.3 41.0 65.3 30.7
1931 .....: 139.7 48.2 22.6 37.8 60.4 31.1
1932 .....: 142.5 45.9 23.1 40.3 63.4 33.-2
1933 .....: 143.0 45.4 22.6 42.3 64.9 32.7
1934 .....: 128.1 43.6 20.9 37.9 58.8 25.7
1935 .....: .131.6 42.1 23.0 39.7 62.7 26.8
1936 .....: 141.6 39.6 27.3 44.1 71.4 30.6
1937 .....: 126.9 39.7 24.6 40.7 65,3 21a9

These data are presented graphically in the charts on the cover.

Rate of egg production

The number of eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age continued
at record high levels on October 1. Even with the reduced size of flock, as
compared with other years, the high rate of production is estimated to have'
brought total egg production above that of any October 1 since 1931 and to
more than 3 percent above the 1925-34 average.,

E^3 laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in farm flocks

: Jan. : Mar. : May : July : Sept. : Oct. : Nov. : Dec.
1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1
:Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Number
Average
1925-34 ..: 16.5 38.4 55.1 42.2 32.4 25.0 17.0 13.9

1936 .......: 19.1 32.6 56.5 44.2 31.4 25.1 18.1 16.0
1937 .......: 22.0 39.2 57.8 44.4 36.1 28.8


- 7 -










r- marketing

During October receipts of eggs at flew York have been about the same as
tliose o a y,'ear t-ariier. Receipts at four leading markets, including Hew
Yort:, 'jere abut 5 ..ercent greater iuring- this period than a year ago. Hot all
of these receipts represent mariKetings of fresh, eL s, however, since they in-
clude out-of-sto'rae ..o.verent to sre extent. M.larketings after mid-winter will
reflect current product ion and are, therefore, likely to be mucrh lower in the
first 9 months of 12f'3 than 1n the sari.e period of this :,year.

Feceipts of e s-:s at 1ew Y,.A, averr.ge 1?25-:4, annual 1956-37

W: F-ee ended -s 71f 1.-37
Year : July : Au : Sept. : S--pt. : Oct. : Oct. : Oct. : Oct.
: : 7 : 4 : 5 : : 9 : 16 : 3


:1 ,C000,
: cases
Average
1 25-124 ...: 16C.0

1936 ........ .: 176.7
I'3"' ........ : 151.5


1 ,,1iFC


1 -I


116.6 104..


1, C'0 2 ,CXO
case? cases


1 ,C O..'0
ccse


1 ,c -(
case s:


1,000
casess


1''1.3 95.6 95.1 97.4 91.9


114.0 112.9 37.1 94.9
111.5 99.6 '96.6 96.2


95.0 86.5 73.4
89.3 89.3 78.2


T".- inrc.:-aii tc ; ffect cn egg rric.s of this :- ar's lrge- storage stock is
b=irng acerntuiat-d by a sloI., .thcugn improvingr, out-of-storage movement. The re-
duction in shell e,-r t,:c.-s in trne first 2 rj' 5 crs of October at the 26 cities was
17.5, erer.t, 4"il-. ti. 1i25--54 av, raea rL-duction is 18.8 percent. Frozen eggs,
of cours_. ar r ic'vin r,- ve1 r. .c' re slIwl- since they m ;, b,- k' pt for a longer
reriodi vithcut 1d: tei loration.

Co'd storage holdings an.i ,:ut-of-stor&,e mol'emrnt of eggs at
2G C .ar;:?t aver-a Z 19'. -,4, arnn al a 19 6-Z7
: ut-of-stJrge (rovzement, :
SStorge st .C:s : .ee!: ended vs rf 3-" : Storage stocks
Y:ar .July : t. : Oct. : Oct. : Oct. : Oct. 23

1 : : 9 : 16 : :
: 1,00'.. 1,000 1, C.0 1,O0C. 1,000 1,000
: ase? caFes c res ca -es cases cases
Shell eggs
Average
1925-?4 ... : 6,433 5,134 2= 32?7 250 4,169

1'?6 ........: 5,067 4,041 263 299 .06 .,1 3
195 ." ........ ,917 4,812 2 0 296 325 3,971
frozen eggs
6 ........ : 2,017 1,677 4 57 66 1,511
19'7 .'........ : 2,917 2,626 6 49 69 2,440


FES-11


- 8 -








IE,-11 9 -

With the 1957 storage operations apparently resulting in a general loss,
it is expected that the incentive to store e.75. next spring will be very -uch
weaker than in this -ast sprin-.

Federal -. purchase program

In mid-October the Agricultural Adjustment Administration announced a
pr-,r-ii, of :gg purchasing by the Federal Surplus Commodities Corporation in an
e:'-rt to keep c- prices advancing at more nearly their normal seasonal rate.
As in the program last spring, the aim is to present further reduction of farm
flocks. The --- bought will be distributed to persons on relief. By November
1, about 330 cars had been purchased.

*E-v prices

The farm price of eggs, while rising some, continues to fall behind its
usual seasonal advance. On October 15 it was 9 ocrcent below that of a year earlier.

Farm prices of eggs per dozen

Tear IJan.. Mar.. May .July Aug..Sept.. Oct.. Nov.. Dec.
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

1925-34 .: 51.0 19.3 18.7 20.0 22.0 25.7 30.0 35.4 35.7

1935 .....: 25.0 18.6 21.4 :1.7 22.7 2G.4 27.9 30.1 28.7
1936 ..... : 22.8 17.5 18.1 20.0 22.4 24.5 27.6 32.5 50.5
1937 .....: 23.1 19.9 17.9 19.4 20.4 22.9 25.2

T:- greater-than-average carry-over of storage eggs expected on January 1,
1938, will tend to keep winter prices low. This price depressing effect, however,
is likely to be more tnan offset by low egg production. Prices, therefore, are
expected to be above those of the winter of 19357 unless abnormally mild weather
prevails as it did then.

The outlook for the remainder of 1958 is for prices above those of the
corresponding periods of 1937 because of the lower production in prospect.

That 1937 storage operations are likely to result in losses to many opera-
tors is clearly indicated by the record of prices of refri, ..:.or standards for
October delivery at Chicago. Note(in the following table) the decline from the
spring months when ::iost storage eggs go into storage.

Average closing prices of refrigerator standards at Chicago for
delivery in October /
7_ ___-k ended as ofI 17C37
Year : Mar. : Apr. : May : June : Sert. : Oct. Oct. : Oct. : Oct
6 :3 1 : 5 : 4 : 2 : 9 : 16 : 23
Average i/ :Cents Centts Cents Cnts Cents Cents C3ts Cents CGents
1925-34~..: 26.1 26.5 26.4 26.6 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.1 27.2

1936 ...... : 21.4 21.6 22.3 25.1 24.8 25.3 25.2 25.9 26.5
. ......: 25.1 26.4 24.1 23.3 22.3 22.1 20.5 20.0 19.4
I/ December delivery 1925-26, November delivery 1927-31.




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