Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
September 1937
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00019

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text





UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


PES-9 SEPTEMBER 9, 1937

e----------------------------------------------------
THE POULTRY Y AND EG G S I T U A T I O N
------------------------------------------------------I









U.S. FARM PRICES OF CHICKENS AND EGGS
CE NTS
PER
POUND 'unm s- r -


20







15







10
CENTS
PER
DOZEN

35



30



25



20



15



10


XN. FEB MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT. OCT NOV DEC.


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


REG 124BO BUjREAU OF AGRiCULTURAL ECONOMICS









THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS, 1925 34=100)


JAN. APR JULY OCT. DEC.


120




100 -




80
130






110


100 -


90


80


70


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICUL.IURE


NEG 32655 BUREAU or AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


EGGS PER 100 HENS


1937 1936



r A

"*A



I I I l I I I


I I I
NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME


1936 _

I
a
I
I
'9


-p *~. 4-


P


-'
- &


o


--1937


I I I I


1 1 1 1 1 1 1


I





PES-9 3-

UNITED STATES DEPART1VEITT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washinrton

- - -- -- -- - - - -.
THE P O ULTRY A IID EGG S I UA TI OI


Summary


Important developments in the poultry and egg situation in August,

as reported by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, -"ere: (1) a sharp

rise in the farm price of chickens; (2) a lers-than-avernge reduction in

storage stocks of eggs; (3) a less-than-average seasonal rise in the farm

price of eggs.

The rise of the farm price of chickens to its highest point in 1937

(see cover chart) at a time when Thicken prices usually decline w?.as due to

the failure of poultry receipts to show their usual seasonal increase.

Chicken prices are expected to remain above those of 1936 during the rest

of 1937. With the average size of flock declinin. less than average from

July 1 to August 1 there is evidence that farmers are beginning to save

their hens in greater proportions than usual. This probably reflects a some-

what more favorable feed situation than earlier in the summer.

With large storage stocks of eggs moving rather slowly, so that the

effect of these stocks may be intensified in the late fall or early winter,

the farm price of eggs during the rest of 1937 is not expected to exceed

.that of 1936. In early 1938, ho-ever, the anticipated relatively light pro-

duction resulting from a prospective reduction in laying flock size is likely

to keen egg prices above those of early 1937.

The feed-egg price situation, from the producer's standpoint, is ex-

pected to improve steadily, but during the remainder of 1937 the situation is

not likely to become as favorable as the 1925-34 average for this period.





TES-9


Ftfed situation

The feed situation in August, as represented by the Chicago feed-egg
ratio, sho-,ed little change from the lnst week of July. About S or 9 dozens
of eggs were required to b'.iy 100 pounds of poultry feed. As figure 1 shows,
this is about 0O percent more than the 1925-34 average for this period.
Wnile feed prices are expected to fall, egg prices are not expected to rise
by as mrch as usual, so that the ratio during the rest of 1937 will not de-
cline as rapidly as feed prices. The ratio is quite unlikely to go so low
as its average.


The feed-egg ratio at Chicago, by -eeks, average
1925-34, annual 1935-37


Dozens of e7.s required to buy, 100 pounds of poultry ration


Year : e__ek ended as of 193 _
: Apr.: June: July: July: July: Aug.: Aug.: Aug.: Aug.:Se
3: : 5 : 3 : 17 : 31 : 7 : l5 : 21 : 28 :
: Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. I


Average
1925-34

1935
1936
1937


pt.: Nov.
4 : 27
oz. Doz.


: 6.23 6.98 6.71 6.76 6.56 6.86 6.43 6.18 5.91 5.60 3.60


: 7.10
: 6.74
: 9.72


6.34

11.23


6.22
6.32
10.13


6.16
7.67
10.64


6. 5
7.35
8.77


6.12
7.71
8.90


5.92
8.28
8.94


5.73
8.75
8.58


5.45
E.80
7.92


.199
7.99,


4.32
5.67


This year's corn crop -as indicated as of August 1 to be the largest
with two exceptions since 1925. The wheat crop likewise is indicated at a
high level. The following table gives the production, for recent years, of
the various grain making up the average poultry ration. From those production
figures, an index of poultry feed supplies relative to 1925-34 has been con-
structed, using the same weighting system that is used in making the feed-egg
ratio. In the right hand column of this table is shown the feed-egg ratio
for corresponding ycars relative to its 1925-34 average. Note that large sup-
plies, as in 1923, do not always bring about a favorable feed situation from
the standpoint of prices. The favorable ratio of 1932 was accounted for very
largely by relatively high egg prices.


- 4 -






PES-9


5-

Production cf poultry feed grains and the Nov. 27 feed-egg ratio


: : : Index of :Feed-cgg ratio
Year Corn : Wheat : Oats : Barley poultryy feed: relative to
: rroduction:1925--31h avraee
Million Million Million Million
bushels bushels bashels bushel Percent Percent
Ave rage :
1925-34 : 2,460 778 1,100 227 10O.O 100.0

1925 : 2,793 669 1,405 192 109.9 85.0
1926 2, 547 832 1,153 166 103.6 81.1
1927 : 2,616 875 1,093 239 106.7 112.8
1928 2,660 914 1,313 328 111.7 115.0
1929 2,521 323 1,113 280 103.4 103.6
193C 2,080 886 1,275 300 93.4 98.3
1931 : 2,576 942 1,124 199 106.7 79.7
1932 : 2,931 757 1,251 298 l15. 45.6
1933 2, 00 552 733 154 89.7 118.1
193 : 1,461 526 542 117 53.6 161.9
1935 2,30-4 626 1.195 286 93.7 120.0
1936 1.529 626 7S9 147 66.1 157.5
1337 : 2,659 890 1,131 227 I1.35

]/ August 1 estimate..

_omitry marketing

Receipts of dressed po iltry in August at the four markets New-York,
Chicago, Boston, and Philadelphia -ere 22 percent less than a year earlier
and the same as in July. In many years receipts are greater in August than
in July, the 1925-311 average increase being 9 percent.

As seen in figure 1, receipts are now well beloi the 1925-34 avera.ge.
In view of the light hatch and a tendency for the farmer to save his laying
flock, receipts are likely to continue low throughout the fall and winter. -

Receipts of dressed poultry at the four markets,
average 1925-34, annual 1935-37


Year


Average
1935-34 ..


1935 .....
19356 ..
1937 .....


To t.al :
Jan.-Jane:
Mil.
Ibs.


June
Mil.
Ibs.


: : : : Total
: July:_ Ag._m: Sppt.:: July-Sopt..
Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
lbs. Ibs. lbs. lbs.


120.7 21. 1 20.6 22.4 2.4.8


94.9
101.6
113.3


18.3
21.7
21.14


13.2
22.3
20. 4


16.5
lb. 5
26. r
20.4


21.3
27.0


67.8

56.0
75. 3


-1


: Total
: Oct.-Dec.
Mil.
Ib .

168.7


141.2
177.2


II





PES-9


Poultry storage

Stocks of frozen poultry in storage are about i 'heir low noint for
the year. The into-storage movement in September will probably exceed
movement out-of-storage. Storage stocks are built up very largely in the period
September-December, reaching a peak in January or early February.

Chicken prices


The
cent. The
noted from
nearer the


farm rice of chickens advanced from July 15 to August 15 by 10 per-
usual movement at this time is a decline of 3 percent. As will be
the chart on the cover this is the highest price this year, and is
1925-34 average than at any time since February 1936.


Average United States farm price of chickens per pound,
average 1925-34, annual 1935-37


I May June July


: Aug. Sent. Oct. Nov. Dec.


: Cents Cenrts Cents Ce-its Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1925-34 : 18.3 18.0 17.8 17.3 17.3 16.8 16.2 15.8

1935 ..........: 15.7 15.6 14.0 14.1 15.4 15.7 15.8 16.0
1936 .........: 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.1 14.9 14.0 13.2 12.6
1937 .......... 14.8 14.8 15.3 16.8


That the price this fall and winter will remain. above that of 1936 seems
assured, but it is not clear now whether the price will exceed the 1925-34
average. The July-August advance, contrary to the usual seasonal movement,
may be attributed to the failure of receipts to rise seasonally which in turn
was due to a. less than average reduction in the laying flock and to the sr.all
hatch.

Nonagricultural income, average 1925-34, annual 1935-37
(Seasonally corrected indexes, 1924-29 = 100)

Year Jan. Mar. : My June : July :Aug. : Sent. Oct. Dec.
Average
1925-34 ... 91.0 90.4 89.7 99.8 39.6 89.6 89.4 89.4 88.8

1935 ........... 75.4 75.8 75.8 75.7 75.5 76.7 77.3 78.4 81.5
1936 ..........: 81.5 82.5 94.1 85.1 86.8 87.4 87.9 89.8 100.9
1937 .......... 82.9 95.3 96.9 96.8 97.6


Year







- PES-9


Laying flock size

That farmers are modifying their earlier policy and arc tending to save
a greater proportion of their laying birds is shown b, the change in the size
of the laying flock. The average number of hens and pullets of laying aue per
farm flock declined only 2.2 percent from July 1 to August 1. The 1925-34
average decline is 4.0 percent. This may be partly in response to the more
favorable feed situation.

Flock size usually diminishes by about 25 percent from January 1 to
September 1, the low point of the year. The decline to August 1 this .,-ear
was 26 percent. Because of this greater than nvernge decline layii. flocks
this fall are expected to be lower than in 1936.

As was pointed out last month, the size of the laying floc'. on Jnnu-ary 1,
1938 is likely to be from 7 to 12 percent less than a ,year earlier, largely
because of the reduction in hatchings.


Average number of laying her.s in firm flocks, average
1925-34, annual 1935-37


Year : Jan. : June : July : Aug. : Sent. : Oct. : 1ov. : Dec.
: 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1
:Number Nuxmber Numrber ITumber lumber iNumber Number Nurber
Average'
1925-34 : 87.5 73.4 69.6 66.8 66.1 70.4 75.7 51.9

1935 ........: 78.3 65.1 61.4 59.2 58.5 65.1 70.5 76.6
1936 ........: 80.6 66.5 62.3 60.0 59.9 66.9 72.4 79.1
1937 ........: 84.2 68.5 63.6 62.2


Rate of e production

The number of eggs laid oer 100 layers on August 1 was again, the highest
on record for the month. As shown by figure 1, it was well above 1936. That
the rate of production has been so high thus far i.: 1937, regardless of an
unfavorable feeding situation, has bees:, due in part to the larger-than-usual
proportion of pullets in the flock. Since the feedinC situation is likely
to continue unfavorable into the fill, and since the effect of the present
pronortion of pullets will be gone by then, the rate of production in early
1938 is not likely to be as high as in early 1937.








Eggs laid. per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in farm
flocks, average 1925-34, annual 1935-37


Year : Jan. : June : July : Aug. : Sent. : Oct. : Nov. : Dec.
--1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 1 : 1
:Number Number Ilumber Number Number Number Number Iumber
Average
1925-34 .. 16.5 49.5 42.2 36.9 32.4 25.0 17.0 13.9

1935 .......: 16.9 50.3 44.1 38.2 32.8 25.9 19.5 16.3
1936 .......: 19.1 51.2 44.2 35.8 31.4 25.1 18.1 16.0
1937 .......: 22.0 52.5 44.4 40.4



E z market nFs

Receipts of ec-s at the four markets in August were 5 percent less than
a year before. The seasonal decrease from July, 22 percent, however, was only
slightly greater than the average (1925-34) decrease of 19 percent.


Receipts of eggs at


the four markets,
1935-37


average 1925-34, annual


Year : Jan.- : Apr.- : June July Aug. : Sept.
: Mar, : June : : : :
: 1,000 1,000 1,1,00 1,000 1,000 1,000
: cases cases cases cases cases cases

Average 1925-34 : 3,666 6,185 1,694 1,182 962 828

1935 .........: 2,891 5,079 1,429 1,101 788 719
1936 .........: 3,249 5,571 1,646 1,173 921 724
1937 .........: 3,392 5,597 1,599 1,113 870


Egg storage stocks

Storage stocks of efgs arc now being used to supply partly the needs of
consumption. As measured at the 26 major storage centers, however, the stock
of shell eggs is not diminishing as rapidly as usual, only 2 percent of the
July 51 stock being withdrawn by September 4 as compared with the 1925-34 average
withdrawal of 4 percent. No weekly 10-year average is available for frozen
eggs moving out of storage, but the larger holdings this year are not being
reduced as rapidly as were the smaller holdings of 1936.






PES-9


Cold storage holdings and out-of-storage movement of eggs at 26
markets, average 1925-34, annual 1935-37


: Storage :
: stock :
Ye'-r : July :


Shell
eggs- :
Average :
1925-34:
1935 ...:
1936 ...:
1937 ...:
Frozen
eggs (in
1936 2
1937 :


31
1,000
cases


6,433
5,242
5,067
5,917

shell egg
2,017
2,917


Out-of-storage movement, week ended
as of 1937
Aug. : Aug. : Aug. : Aug. : Sept.
? : 14 : 21 : 28 : 4
1,000 1,000 1,C00 1,COO 1,000
cases cases cases cases cases


equivalent)-
14 2(
11


: Storage
: stocks
: Sept. 4
1, C"i
cases



5,990
4,716
4,811
5,682


1,8,.0
D,O6S


As was pointed out last month in some detail, storage holdings of eggs
are important in determining the fall and winter price of eggs. Should
storage stocks move out at a less than average rate, the effect of this year's
heavy stocks on egg prices will be intensified by November and December. In
other words, while a less than aver:,e use of storage eggs in earl;, fall
may tend to keep prices above what they would otherwise be (mnd probably
to cut consumption for a longer period), egg prices in the l.-:te fall and
early winter would tend to be lowered to an even greater extent by the
storage stocks.

Egg consumption

Consumption of eggs during the period January to August 1937 :ppe.rs
to have been distinctly greater than in the same period of 1936. Egg
production in these months, as judged by production per farm flock (scc figure
1) has been 9 percent greater than in 1936. The quantity of eg;s stored each
year seldom exceeds 20 percent of this first 8 month's production. Hence,
with 1937 storage about 25 percent greater than in 1936, not over 5 of the
9 percent increase in production went into storage and therefore consumption
must have increased by at least 4 percent over 1936.

Egg prices

The farm price of eggs rose only 5.2 percent from July 15 to August 15.
The average (1925-34), seasonal rise between these dates is 10.0 percent


- 9 -


:*




umvnawnav \r rLwr~IBUn

3 1262 08903 9647

- 1t:- .


FPSS-93


isee c-art on cover). By December, egg prices ordinarily double their
March-June average. The, are not likely to go so high this year. Indeed,
if st:r7ge stocks contin-ae to move so slowly cgg prices may be expected
to rzair. below those of 1936 during the rest of the year. The analysis
presented last month evaluating the effect of storage stocks on egg prices
ad indicating little difference between prices in 1936 and 1937 was based
cn a nrai rate of withdrawal.

_T-e effect o7. ej prices of tte reduction in laying flock size,
res'ti-ng from the smaller ha-tch, is not likely to be felt before early 1938.
-T.en, while prices mCjy e expected to exceed those of early 1937, they will
of co-irse be lower than in. the las: 2 months of this year.


A7erage U:-iei States f rm price of e-7gs per dozen, average
1925-34, annual 1935-37


r" .....
-Je :Juiy Aug. :Sent. Oct. 4 ov. Dec.
: Cents Cents Certs jcrnt Cents Cents Cents Cents
Aver -ne
1925-34 .....: 18.8 15.6 20.0 22.0 25.7 30.0 35.4 35.7

.35. ..........: 20.2 2 21. 21.7 22.7 26.4 27.9 30.1 28.7
1936 ..........: .17.8 15.3 20.0 22.4 24.5 27.6 32.5 30.5
1937 ..........: 15.9 17.6 19.4 20.4