Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
July 1937
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00017

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
n Bureau of Agricultural Economics
S | ashington

PXS-7 July 8, 1937


THE P 0 ULTR Y AN-D EG G S I TUAT I 01T




This issue contains the significant facts in the I
sumner outlook for roaltry and eggs. A separate report
on the Summer Outlook is not being issued this year.



Summary

In early summer the poultry outlook is of special importance to the

poultry industry because at that time farmers nust decide what to do -.vith

the young chickens hatched in the past spring. The essential features of

the present outlook, as reported-by the Bureau of Agricul-tural Economics,

are (1) the prospect that an unfavorable feed situation will continue to

some extent during the remainder of 1937, and (2) the prospect that pullets

carried through this period will entcr their season of heaviest production

in early 1938 with a more favorable feed situation and with egg prices above

those of 1937.

While the farm price of chickens may decline during the summer by as

much as they did in the corresponding period of 1936, because of the disposal

of the remainder of the heavy storage stocks, any decline after September is

likely to be less than in-1936. By then the effect of the reduction in the

hatch will be felt upon poultry marketing.

The farm price of eggs is about to begin its seasonal rise to a peak

in December. Because of the 26-percent increase over 1936 in storage stocks

of eggs, both shell and frozen, the advance this year is not likely to be as

great as a year ago. In the first half of 1938, however, when these stor ge

stocks are no longer an important factor in the situation and when both the
size of the laying flock and the rate of egg production will probably be less
thaa in early 1937, egg prices are likely to be above those of the same months
of 1937.






- 2 -


Feed situation

The feed situation in June, as represented by the Chicago feed-egg
ratio, was less unfavorable to the poultry producer than in May. Lore
dozens of eggs, however, are still required to buy 100 pounds of feed than
L.t any time prior to 1937.

The feed-egg ratio at Chicago, by weeks, average 1925-34,
annual 1935-37

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)

Week ended as of 1937
Year : MEr.: Apr.: May :June :June :Ju-.e :June :July :Sept.:NTov.
: 6 : 3 : 1 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 3 : 4 : 27
: Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Do?. Doz. Do-. Doz.
Average :
1925-34 6.20 6.23 6.43 6.98 6.87 U.76 6.66 6.71 5.68 3.60

1935 .....: 7.30 7.10 6.77 6.34 6.43 6.32 6.45 6.22 5.14 4.32
1936 .....: 5.11 6.48 6.01 5.60 5.37 5.47 6.01 6.32 7.99 5.67
1937 .....: 9.17 9.72 10.80 11.23 10.75 9.95 9.91


The feed-egg ratio usually reaches a peak in Junn and then gradually
declines to the end of Ulovember, when it aver7iges (1925-34) about 4. vVhile
some decline in the feed-egg ratio is expected this year because of larger
supplies it is quite unlikely to go this low. fiWether it becomes as low as
in 1936 will depend largely uron the outcome of the feed situation this
surncer and fall. In other words, in considering how many of the young
chickens to sav? for the 1938 lay,'inj flock, it mu:t be remembered that a
favorable -it-.ation with rearard to relative prices of egg-s and of feed is by
no means .zstured to the producer during the remainder of 1937.

Hatchings and
17unber of -oiug chickens

The 1937 hatching season is practically over. A sharp reduction
from 1936 is evident. The nuriber of young chickens in farm flocks on June 1
is esti.--ted at 15 percent less than in 1936. As shown in figure 1 this
brings numbers of young chickens to the lowest point in the record (1926-37).

Reports of co.tmercial hatchings in May showed a decrease of 27 percent
in salable chicks as compared with May 1936. Fcr the period Jonuary-May the
decrease was 10 percent. The ;unber of salable chicks hatched by cr.m.ercial
hatcheries rel-.tive to that nuxaber in 1934 is shown in figure 2. While the
total nu-mber of comnr.ercially hatched chicks is not exactly known, an extensive
survey by the Agricultural Adjustment Administration 1/ indicated 453 million
salable chicks from comuLercial hatcheries in 1934.


i/ An Economic Survey of the Baby Chick 'Hatchery Indt.ry, E. L. MTarren
and M. T. Wermel. May 1935.


PES-7









CHICKS AND YOUNG CHICKENS PER FARM FLOCK ON JUNE 1. 1926-37
NUMBER -- PERCENT
PER FLOCK OF 10-YR
AV. 1926-35


1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938
U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG 31505 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FIGURE 1.- THE 15 PERCENT REDUCTION IN THE 1937 NATCH FROM THAT OF 1936 BRINC8
THE NUMBER OF YOUNG CHICKENS TO THE LOWEST LEVEL IN THE PERIOD 1926-37.




RELATIVE NUMBER OF SALADLE CHICKS IN
COMMERCIAL HATCHERIES. 1929-37
PERCENT 934 I I I I
OF 1934 I i


1929 1930 1931 1932

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
FIGURE 2.- COMMERCIAL HATCHINGS
THE PERIOD 1929-36.


1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

RNE 3241I BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FOR 1937 REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE AVERAGE OF








_oltry marketing


Receipts of dressed poultry in Jane at the four markets, New York,
Chicago, Boston, and Philadelphia, were about the same as a year before
and were 11 percent greater than in May. The average (1925-34) seasonal
increase from May to June is 13 percent.

Receipts of dressed poultry at the four markets,
average 19?5-',4, annual 193Y-37


Year
:*


Total
Jan. -June
Mil.
lbs.


: Jne : Juy : Set : Total : Total
June July Aug. Sent -
: : : :July-Sept. :Oct.-Dec.
Mil. Mi!. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
ibs. bs. ibs. lbs. lbs. It.A


Average
1925-34 .. :


1935f
193o
1937


120.7 21.0 20.6 22.4 214.8


9h.9
101. b
113.3


15.3
21.7
P_.


18.2 16'.5 21.3 5:S.O
22.3 26.0 27.0 75.3


Storage out-movement and flock reductions may keep receipts through
the summer above those of 1936. From September to the end of the year,
however, the reduction in hatchinrs this year will tend to keep receipts
below those of 1936. Because f--ed will probably be more plentiful than in
1936, poultry will be fed to heavier weights, and therefore receipts are
not likely to be reduced by as imu-h as the reduction in hatchings would
indicate.

Poultry storage

Stocks of frozen poultry continue at record high le-vels for the
period. Poultry storage reaches a minimum in the summer and by September
the into-stcrage movement is well started.

Storage holdings and ou,.-of-storage movement of frozen poultry
at 26 markets, average 1925-34, annual 1935-37


Year


Average
1925-34 .. :


1935 ...
1936 ...
1937 ...


In storaTge
June 26
Mil.
lbs.

35.4

33.7
31.5
55.3


Out-of-storage movement
Jan. -June : May_29j-June 26
Mil. Mil.
lbs. lbs.


6o.5

67.1
50.4
85.7


2.0
.7
5.0


67.8


168.7

141.2
177.2





- 5 -


Phiclkenn prices

The farm price of chickens was the same on June 15 as a month earlier.
In most years prices decline from their seasonal peak in the spring to a low
in December. This movement is -;ell sho-m by the 1925-35 average in figure
3. Note that in 1936, unier the off-=cts of hcavy supplies, prices fell more
rapidly than e.verage. Most of these su-pplies -ere in cold storage by January
1, and they continued to affect prices in 1937, In disposing of this record.
stock in thL next 2 months, before the into-storage movement becomes large,
it is possible that the farm price of chickens may fall by as much as last
year. From September on, however, because of prospective lighter s'liplies
than in 1936 and with consumer incomes above 1936, any decline is; not likely
to be as great as last year, and a slight advance is possible. It is probable
if consumer incomes remain above their 1925-34 average that the whole decline
from:May to December will be less than average, so that by the end of the year
prices will be cibove those of the end of 1936. In other -oc.ris, while in 1936
the gap between current prices and the average w-rs becoming, wider, it is ex-
pected to become narrower in the remainder nf 1937 and in early 1938. (See
figure 3.)

Average Unitedf State3 farm rice of chickens, per pound
average- 1925-34, annual 1935-37

Year May : June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

Average
1925-34:- 18.3 180. 17.8 17.3 17.3 14.8 16.2 15.8

1935 *..: 15.7 15.6 l4.0 14.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.0
1936 ...: 16.6 lt.h 1 1.1 15.1 14.9 l4.0 13.2 12.6
1937 ...: 14.8 14.



Index of national income, excluding agriculture,
average 1925-f4, annual 1935-37


Year Jan. Mar. May : June: July Aug. Oct. : Dec.

Average
1925-34 : 91.1 90.2 89.5 89.7 89.7 89.5 &9.2 88.9

1935 ....... : 73.8 73.9 73.9 74.1 74.1 74.9 77.3 80.0
1936 .......: 79.7 -79.9 82.1 83.3 84.8 85.2 87.3 97.2
1937 ....... : 87.8 89.7 91.4


This series has been revised since the last issue. Complete data will
be found on the last page.






PES-7.


Laying flock size

The number of hens and pullets of laying age in farm flocks averaged
3 percent more on June 1, 1937, than a year earlier. The period January 1 to
September 1 is one of steadily diminishing size of flock as there are normally
about 25 percent fewer layers on September 1. The decline so far in 1937 has
beca 13.6 percent while the average is 15.1 percent. This slightly greater
reduction together with the reduction in hatchings is likely to bring the
n'.uber of layers this fall below the number a year earlier.

Average number of laying hens in farm flocks, average 1925-34
annual 1935-37

Year Jan. : June July : Au;. : Set. : Oct. N; ov. : Dec.
: 1 1 1 : : 1 1 :1 : i 1I
Number Number Number Nmnber Number Number Number Number
Avera-ge
1925-34..: 87.5 73.4 69. 66.8 66.1 70.4 75.7 81.9

1935 ....: 7.3 65.1 31.4 59.2 58.5 65.1 70.5 76.6
1936 ....: 9.5 566.5 62.3 60.0 59.9 66.9 72.4 73.9
1337 ....: 84.2 38.5



Rate of e-, production

The rate of eg; production nper hen reported on June 1 was the highest
'n recorC for the month. That the rate of production has been so hi.rh thus far
in 1937, regardless of an 'unfavorable feeding situation, has been due in part
to the larger than usual proportion of pullets in the flock. Since the feeding
situationn is likely to continue *unfavoraLle into the fall, and since the
effect of the present -roportion of pullets will be .one by then, the rate of
production in early 19338 will probably not be maintained above its level of a
year earlier.

E.wRs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying a-e in farm flocks,
average 1925-34, annual 1?35-37

Ye ar Jan. : June : July : Aug. : Sept. : Oct. : Nov. : Dec.
: 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1 : 1
: Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Number
Average
192.-24..: 16.5 49.5 42.2 36.9 32.4 25.0 17.0 13.9

1935 .... 16.9 50.3 44.1 38.2 32.8 25.9 19.5 16.3.
1935 ....: 19.1 51.2 44.2 35.8 31.4 25.1 13.1 16.0
1937 .... 22.0 52.5


- 6 -






PES-7


Egg marketing

Receipts of eggs at the four markets during June were 3 percent less-
than a year before. The seasonal decrease from the pe'k in May, 23 percent,
was about as great as the avera-re (1925-34) decrease of 24 percent.

Receipts of er-gs at the four markets
average 1925-34, annual 1935-37

Year Jan.-Mar. : Apr.-June June : July Aug. : Sent.

: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,0100 1,0 0 1,7'0
cases cases cases cases cases cases
Ave rage
1925-34...: 3,666 6,185 1,684 1,132 962 823

1935 .....: 2,291 5,079 1,429 1,101 789 719
1933 .....; 3,249 5,571 1,046 1,173 921 724
1937 .....: 3,392 5,597 1,599


Eg storage stocks

The into-storage rnovement of shell ecggs in J.une, as measured at the 2?
major stora",e centers, 'Twas little more than a year before; but nearly twice
as many frozen egps were stored as in June 1936. Because of heavy storing
early in the season stocks of shell eggs on June 26 were 20 percent greater
than in 1936 and frozen stocks were 43 percent greater. The stock with frozen
eggs converted to shell egg equivalents was 23 percent Creater than in 1936.
There is ordinarily but little into-storage movement in July, and from August
through January storage stocks constitute a major so rce of supply.

Cold storage holdings of ec s at 26 markets
average 1925-34, annual 1935-37
Week ended as of 1937
Case eggs Frozen eggs
Year : .lry :June :June :June :June : May : June : June :Juns : Z.ne
S29 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 29 : 5 : 12 : 19 :.3-i
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,00? 1,000 Million Million Million Hillio:-. :'Illio
cases cases cases cases cases pounds pounds pounds cJ'c 2ourds
Average
1925-34..: 5,039 5,440 5,721 5,952 6,128


4,106
3,787
4,694


4,381
4,036
5,001


4,341
4,290
5,298


4, 32
4,521
5,529


4,962
4,731
5, 67


55.2
73.3


59.0 61.8 63.3 68.3
79.4 83.3 839.C 94.7


- 7 -









Egg prices

The farm price of eggs declined slightly from May 15 to Jure 15, reach-
ing the lowest price this year. In most years egg prices fluctuate rather
irregularly'at a low level during the spring. By the end of June they have
definitely begun to rise; by December they about double their March-June
average. This usual seasonal movement is shown in figure 3 by the 1925-34
average.

Average United States farm price of eggs per dozen,
average 1925-34, annual 1935-37

Year Mar.-June: : : :
Year : average June July Aug. : Sept. Oct. Nov. : Dec.
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

Average
1925-34 18.8 18.6 20.0 22.0 25.7 30.0 35.4 35.7

1935 ....... 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.7 26.4 27.9 30.1 28.7
1936 ....... 17.8 18.9 20.0 22.4 24.5 27.6 32.5 30.5
1937 .......: 18.9 17.6



The seasonal rise in egg prices in 1937 is not expected to exceed that
of 1936, which figure 3 shows was not quite as great as average. The depressing
tendency of the storage stock is not likely to be completely offset by the
possibly somewhat higher level of consumer incomes than in the fall of 1936.
There is lit tle chance that narketings will be light enough, in addition, to
make prices rise faster than last year.

By thr end of the year, however, and in the first half of 1938, the
smaller flocks in prospect will tend to lessen the winter decline and to
keep prices above those of the spring of 1937. Any increase in consumer
incomes would, of course, accentuate this tendency, while a decrease would
offset it.

In deciding as to the number of young chickens to keep for the 1938
laying flock, therefore, thu outlook contains two features of importance:
(1) the likelihood that egg and feed prices together will maintain a rather
unfavorable situation during the remnairder of 1937, and (2) the likelihood
that when these pullets come into their heaviest production egg prices and
the feed situation will be more favorable to the producer than in 1937, sub-
ject, of course, to changes in other elements of the situation which are not
now elected to vary materially.


- 8 -


PES-7










AVERAGE FARM PRICES FOR CHICKENS AND EGGS,
UNITED STATES, AVERAGE 1925-34. AND 1936 TO DATE
CENTS 1 T
PER 1
POUND ..- a -, v --


20 A average 19256-34




19315






1937


to10
CENTS
PER
DOZEN EGGS



35 1936

30



25



20



15 1937



10 : _L
JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF MJA CULTURE NEG. 32490 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FIGURE 3.- THE GAP BETWEEN THE 1937 FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS AND THE
1925-34 AVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS THIS FALL. EGG PRICES IN
1937 ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE AS MUCH FROM THEIR MARCH-JUNE LEVEL AS
THEY DID IN 1936.






- 10 -


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