Poultry and egg situation

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Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
February 1937
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00012

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Poultry and egg outlook & situation


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Full Text







2 S-2


U.!IT' ST^.T2S EAET:: '.T OF AG, TC,'ILTTjE
bureau of Acricultural Economics
s.- s .ir: ton


,.Trwr,-: 1937


-m------------------------
POULTRY AMD EGG SITUATION







The tr'o 1i. "'rtrnt developnents.in the -oultry and eg'r situation in

January have beeL. (1) the continuance of :--ld te-iperctures in many proCucing

res, '.7':ich. has sti .'.Uil-.tef er -roTrduction to exceptionally hi-rh levels despite

an u-.ifeverable fe-e' r- tio, and (2) the operation of the Agricultural

Aijust-,cnt A-:.-ir.ist r.ti:.rin .ur-plus eG- -purchasing TroCgr which is .dosi.;r..

to rc.dcrr the ..oci-ic i:, -..- prices, caused by this heavy production, less

severe u-rc.i t',,' *:ltr--.-.n nao making his ":l'ns for smrin'" hetchin- -,

price rc-,ul.-rl:y decline -t this period of the year, but not so much as has

ben ceaise..., this a. .or..-l production. The purchase prorcm a .tte-p)ts to

"nor..lize" this ieclin.. Laying fl._:zs are now below erawrf;e size for this

tir.,e of ,-cr, eP, a :...te.rial reduction in hatching, such as night be caused by

n severe -rice dec- .r-, w-il,:d -r-cEThly lead to excessively- bi -rices for

e-;s in early 1933.

Poultry -.rices in the first half of 1937, ancd prospects for the last

hr.lf of 1937, Till L dr.-niated by the storage situation. These present

record strr-.. stocks will very likely prevent poultry prices this spring

from, renc-cinr,. levels rs hih As those of last s~pring. If consumer de:-.and

cintirues to stre:ngt'.enr, 1i.wever, so that there will be no large carry-ovcr

to effect prices in th'e f-.ll of 1937, the decline which commonly characterizes

fll poultry- prices --iy -.ot occur or mra e loss than average, in this event

f-.ll prices would11 exceed' t.-:se of 1936.


, *)




PES-2 -2-


Feed situation

The relation of feed costs to egg prices from August 1936 to the end
of the year has followed rather closely the samu course that was taken after
the 1934 drought. In both years the feood-egg ratio was unfavorable to heavy
feeding largely because of scarcity of feed and high food prices.


The feed-egg ratio, by months, average 1910-33, annual
1934-35 to 1936-37

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)


Year :Aue. :3Set.: Oct.: Ilov.: Dec.: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May

:D -en Dezen Dczen Dozen Dozen Dozen Dozen Dozen Dozen Dozen
Average
1910-33.....: 7.17 6.05 4.90 3.95 3.72 4.35 5.59 7.16 7.75 7.91

1934-35........: 3.12 6.834 6.30 5.18 5.91 6.45 6.29 8.38 8.02 7.38
1935-36.... 6.19 5.25 4.3 :.1 3. 4.97 4.86 6.66 6.89 6.50
1936-37........: .?l 7.66 6.47 5.41 5.95 ---




In January, however, thc feed situation d-parted markedly from its
1934-35 parallel. Ilild tcmpcraturcs over many producing areas have
stimulated ctg production to unusually high levels for this time of year so
that agg prices have, fallen by more th.-n th-e average seasonal decline.
Therefore, in addition to high fee-d costs, relatively low egg prices are
causing an exceptionally high fted-cgg ratio; in other words, an exceptionally
large number of eggs is required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration.

The course of the fe-d-egg ratio during Ja.nuary is indicated by the
ratio at Chicago, b:.sed upon market prices there rather than upon farm prices.


The feed-cgg ratio, at Chicago by weeks, average 1926-35, and
December 5, 1936 to January 30, 1937


Week ended as Dec. :Dec. :Dec. Dec. : Jan. Jan.: J rn. Jan.: Jan.
of 1936-37 5 12 19 26 : 2 9 :16 23 30

:Dozc-n Dozen Dozen Dozen Dozen Dozen Dozen Dozen Dozen
Average
1926-35........ 3.72 3.95 4-15 4.23 4.21 4.23 4.50 4.72 4.92

1936-37............ 5.92 6.44 7.00 6.93 6.98 7.76 8.79 9.30 9.03
19933 ... ... .. 8:7 9 0.,0




I) T


PES-2 -3-


Hatchings

The size of the hatch is greatly affected by the feed-egg ratio just
prior to and during the hatching season.

!'ith the feed-egg ratio steadily rising or being maintained at high
levels it becomes increasingly more likely that the 1937 hatch will be less
than that of 1936. In areas which produce most of the winter broilers,
commercial hatcheries reported a 32-percent decrease in the number of salable
chicks hatched in December 1936 compared with the number hatched a year
earlier. While this decrease was partly the result of very low poultry
prices, the same tendency will probably prevail when hatching of chicks for
laying flocks begins.


Poultry marketing

Most of the farm marketing of poultry are now past. The course of
poultry receipts during the next 3 or 4 months will be rather stable and
at a low level compared with that of many other years.

Receipts of dressed poultry, however, will probably exceed the very
low figures of a year earlier. This will be due mainly to three conditions:
The inclusion in receipts of poultry moving out of storage, the larger average
size of flock as cio.jured with last year, and the tendency to reduce the
laying flock because of the unfavorable feed-egg ratio. If the increase over
1936 from these causes amounts altogether to' about 10 percent, then receipts
of dressed poultry at the four markets during the period January through
June will be about 110,000,000 pounds. In January, receipts were 9 percent
greater than a year before.



Receipts of dressed poultry at the four markets, January-June,
average 1925-34, annual 1935-37



Year Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : May : June : Jan.-June

:Ldillion Million Million liillion Million Million Million
pounds s found s- pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average
1925-34......: 28.5 20.2 17.0 15.4 18.6 21.0 120.7

1935............: 21.0 15.1 12.6 13.5 14.4 18.3 94.9
1936............: 19.6 13.7 14.2 14.5 17.9 21.7 101.6
1937............: 21.3 --- --- --- -- --. --





P S3-2


Poultry storage

Storage holdings of poultry decline from a maximum in January -
187,000,000 pounds this year to a low point som, time during the sumcor.
By July 1, the United States stocio is usually between 35,000,000 and
55,000,000 pounds.

At 26 major markets, storage stocks were 141,000,000 pounds on
January 2 and 136,000,000 on January 30. By July 1 this stock usually averages
(1925-34) about 35,000,000 pounds. To keep in line with other years, then
stock in-ho 26 markets would nave to be reduced by 106,000,000 pounds in the
period January through June, if it is not to burden the new crop of poultry.
This would be about 74 percent greater than the 1925-34 average out-of-
storage movement. The cut-movement this January was about three times as great
as average.

Out-of-storage movement cf frozen poultry at 26 markets,
average 1925-34, annual 1935-37

Jan.- : Percentage Jan. is
Year Jan. June : of 6 months total
: Million Million
: pounds pcands Percent


Average
1925-34...

1935........... :
1936........... :
1937........... :


1.5


8.3 67
2.9 50
4.7 Will this be 106?


2.5


12.4
5.8
4.4 (of 106)


Chicken prices

The low point of the seasonal decline in the farm price of chickens
apparently occurred in December. A seasonal rise is now in prospect. If
this were an "average" year the United States fn.rm price wouldl d rise about
12 percent from January to a high in May of about 15 cents per pound.


Chickens: Average price per pound received by farmers in the
United States, 15th of the month, 1935-37


Year : Jan. :Feb. .Mar. A:r. May .June : Oct. Dec.

:Oents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


1935 ............. : 12.4
1936............. : 16.5
1937.............: 13.4


13.4 14.2 15.5
16.9 16.6 16.9


15.7 15.6
16.6 16.4


: Average seasonal index averagee for the year = 100)


Average
1921-30.......: 94.9 98.3 100.0 103.9


105.9 105.7 98.5 92.2


15.7
14.0


16.0
12.6








In no sense, however, is this an "averf'e" year. Storage stocks,
particularly, are at a record high level while receipts are below the average
for the past 5 years. From the supply standpoint, taken alone, it is not
likely that the full seasonal rise in prices will occur. On the other
hand, though, consumer purchasing power has been steadily advancing in
recent months. This has prevented poultry prices from going so low as they
otherwise would have gone. It is likely that this demand situation will
continue to improve sufficiently to offset much of the effect of the supply
situation. Therefore, while a seasonal rise in price equal to the a.r.e a
is by no means unlikely, the most probable occurrence is a rise from
January to M Vi, of somewhat less than average. It should be noted that
double the average rise would be required to raise 1937 prices above those
of 1936 in this period. In the latter part of 1937, however, chicken prices
are likely to exceed those of 1936 unless a burdensome surplus remains in
storage.

Index of national: income, excluding agriculture, average 1925-34,
annual, 1935-36

1924-29 = 100

: : : .
Year Jan. Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : May : June : Oct. : Dec.


Average
1925-34 ....: 91.0 90.7 90.2 89.7 89.6 89.6 88.6 88.8

1935 ..........: 73.5 75.5 74.4 72.3 74.4 73.8 74.3 79.9
1936 ..........: 78.6 78.5 81.6 78.7 82.2 83.3 86.6 96.9



Laying flock size

The average number of hens and pullets of laying age in farm flocks
was 4.5 percent greater on January 1, 1937, than a year earlier. Of the
years since the beginning of the record in 1925, however, only in 1935'and
1936 were numbers of layers smaller on January 1. In most years the laying
flock is at its greatest size about January 1.

Average number of l:iyinr hens in farm flocks, c-.: r.ae 1925-34,
annual 1935-37


Year :Jan. 1 :Feb. 1 :Mar. 1 :Apr. 1 :May 1 :June 1 : Oct. l:Dec.l

: Number Number Number Number I Tumber Number Number Number
Average
1925-34 .....: 87.5 87.2 84.7 82.1 77.4 73.4 70.4 81.9

1935 ........... : 78.3 77.6 75.8 72.9 69.1 65.1 65.4 76.6
1936 ...........: 80.6 79.1 76.7 74.8 70.5 66.5 66.9 79.1
1937 ........... : 84.2 --- --- --- --- --- -


PES-2


- 5 -






PES-2 6 -

It ser-.ms lil:el;. that this nercent:.-e increase may have been reduced
sorncmwhi.t during Ja.luJry by the tendency to market laying birds as the result
of the exceedingly urinfvorable feed-egg ratio.

sE.te of egg ,rduchion

The rate of egg production reported on Jnnuary 1 was the greatest
?ince the bcgiinnin: of t-he rec-:d in 1925. This navy rate is the result
of exceptionally mr ld te:iperatu;res i. many important producing areas and has
occurred in spite of an cquall;; excc--*ional unfavorable feed-egg ratio. It
is likely that as long as riil. '" at: r lasts this tendency will continue,
but tht wit', n.1. _-I winter codiitior ns thie rate of production will decline
to average o" loa:.

Egis laid per 1-10 hens and pullets of laying age in farm flocks,
average 1925-34, annual 19.5-37


Year


:Jan. 1:Feb. 1:Mar. 1:Arr. 1:May 1 :June l:0ct. 1:Dec. 1

:;Iumnber Nuimber Iurr imer ITurbLr 1,a.ber Iumiber Number lfujmber


Average
12S5-34 .......: 16.5 24.2 38.4 52.8


1935 .............: 16.9
1936 .............: 19.1
1937 .............: 22.0


55.1 49.5 25.0 13.9


21.7 37.3 53.9 55.2 50.3 25.9 16.3
24. 32.6 54.7 56.5 51.2 35.1 16.0


Egg mar-ketings

As a result of the larger laying flocks and of the heavier rate of
production, receipts of eggs at the four markets in January were larger than
in any previous January. While it was expected that the larger flocks of 1937
would somewhat more than offset the effect of the unfavorable feed-egg ratio,
so that marketing in the first half of 1937 would exceed those of the same
months of 1i'_-36, this very he-vy supply is almost entirely a mfLtter of unusual
weather conditions and is likely to continue as long as these conditions
remain essentially unchanged.

Receipts of eg-s ?t four markets, average 1?25-34, annual 1935-37


Year


: Jzn. : Feb.


: 1, 0CJ
: c.ses


Average
1925-34 ...:

1935 ..........
1936 ..........:
1937? ..........:


Mnr.


1, JuO 1, C0JC
cases cas,'7s


842 1,C 060 1,764


684
120
1,012


792 1,415
734 1,635


Jan. Mar.


1, 000
cases

3,666

2,391
3,349


Apr. June


1,000
cases

6,185

5,079
5,571





PES-2


Egg storage stocks

Storage stocks of eggs are ordinarily of little importance as a
source of supply in February. It is quite unusual for any large proportion
of the February 1 stock to consist of eggs stored in January. This year,
however, much of the approximately 430,000 cases in storage was placed
there during January. This storing was caused by the heavy receipts and
most of it will come out of storage immediately upon the arrival of normal
winter weather. Cold storage holdings of shell eggs totalled 159,000
cases on February 1, 1936; the 1925-34 average for February 1 is 285,000
cases.

Ezg storage margin

Eggs are stored mainly during the period from March through June and
come out of storage chiefly during the period from September through January.
The difference in average prices between these two periods is a rough
measure of the average gross profit on the season's storage operations.
From this margin an allowance must be made for storage costs of all kinds.
These costs are estimated to average from 3.5 to 4.0 cents per dozen. The
success of the past storage season, from the standpoint of the operator,
often has a bearing on the level of egg prices in late winter and early
spring.

Estimated storage margin on eggs per dozen, average 1916-35,
1925-34, annual 1935-36


Seasonal average : Seasonal average :
: st. pkd. frists : refrig. firsts : Storage
Year at N. Y. : at N, Y. margin
: Mar. June : Sept. Jan. :
Cents Cents Cents
Average
1916-35 ...... : 28.22 33.16 4.94
1925-34 ...... 24.08 27.69 3.61

1935 ...........: 25.06 23.66 1.40
1936 ...........: 21.24 1/ 26.79 1/ 5.55



L/ Preliminary.

The March-June average price is the average of the monthly prices of
storage packed firsts at New York weighted by the net into-storage movement as
indicated by the first of the month United States cold storage reports. The
September-January price is similarly obtained using the price of refrigerator
firsts at New York weighted by the net out-of-storage movement.


- 7 ,-





PES-2 x 8

AAA egg --urchasin. program

In January the Agricultural Adjustment Administration began a surplus
egg purchasing program. ,nile a large part of the eggs bought are for
distribution in the flood areas, the major purpose of the program is to pre-
vent a continuation of the abnormally sharp decline in winter farm egg
prices. Tniz program has had the effect of narrowing the spread bet-een
retail and W-nolesale prices. B'r sl'owing uap the rate of the price decline
it tends to discoura-e both forced sales of poultry now and reductions in
the spring hatch, either of which -.ould tend to develop unduly higher
prices next fall and winter.


Ejr prices

Tn-- farm price of eg-s on January 15 usually averages about 17 per-
cent less than a month earlier. Ti.is year, ho-.'vevr, the decline vas 25
percent. This greater-than-av-ra.e decline is almost entirely due to heavy
receipts resultin- from mill t-empr-raturts. The course of prices through-
out the remainder of the winter is no more prr-.ictable than the weather.


Egg-.s: Average price ier inozen of mixed colors, special )acked
at New York, and .initli Stat-s farm pri:s, 19.75-37


Year and price' Jan.


e'o. Mar.


Apr.


May


June


: Cents Cent. s C-:nts Cents Cents Cents


Oct. s
Cents


Dee.
Cents


N.Y. price:
1935

1937
U.S. farm
price:
1935
1936
1937




1921-30


52..9
17. 1


2..0


22.8
2 .1


1 .O
32.6




i 0
'7.


214, 1
23. 5



17.65
17.5


26.6 27.5 26.9 32.8 32.3
22.2 23.9 2.1 33.5 3h


20.' 21.4 21 ?'
16. s 18.1 1i.9


27.9
27.6o


Seasonal index of farm prices averagee for year 100)


: 125.O 102.0 7h.4 72.6 73.7 74.2 1lS.9


Thou,- i. is unlikely that February prices in 1937 will equal those of
that month of extremely cold -weathcr in 1936, it is likely that spring prices
will average above those of lY, and -ill, perhaps, be nearer to the levels of
1935. It is believed trat tre advance in consumer purchasing, po-er is enough
to counteract the effects of heavier receipts expected.


2S.7
7-- 5


151.2









Increased receipts in the .r.ring often result in larger storage
stocks of eggs by midsummer; and large stora-.- stocks tend to depress fall
and early winter prices. It is not clear now, however, whether storage
stocks will increase to such an extent as to cause 1937 fall prices to go
below those of 1936 in spite of str:ng .."i;nn consumer demand. Looking
farther ahead, it is worth noting that with laying flocks now below aver-
age any material reduction in this springs hatch may easily result in
relatively high prices in the first half of 1938 when eggs from this hatch
will be an important source of supply.

S"'TPF'L.1E;i'TARY DATA


Table 1.- Indox of national income, excluding agriculture,
1925-36

(1924-29 = 100)


Year :Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. : May :June :July :Aug. :Sept.:Oct. :Nov. :Dec.


1925 93.6 93.6 93.6 94.1 94.6 95.6 96.8 96.8 96.9 98.9 99.9 99.9
1926 : 99.8 100.3 100.7 100.3 935.4 99.8 99.4 99.8 100.7 101.9 101.4 101.4
1927 :101.8 102.3 101.8 102.3 102.3 102.3 101.8 102.3 101.8 100.5 100.5 100.5
1928 :101.5 101.9 102.4 101.9. 101.9 103.8 104.7 105.6 105.6 106,1 106.1 106.1
1929 :106.0 106.2 106.2 106.0 10o6.8 108.2 108.3 109.3 109.4 109.0 106.3.107.2
1930 :104.9 104.1 104.9 104.1 103.5 102.7 100.4 97.4 96.4 95.7 93.2 93.1
1931 : 91.6 90.9 90.7 89.6 87.8 S6.8 S5.4 83.0 81.4 79.7 78.6 78.0
1932 : 77.0 74.7 72.3 70.2 68.3 65.9 63.5 61.6 62.4 C2.6 63.0 62.1
1933 : 63.0 61.4 58.2 58.5 60.0 62.0 61.5- 63.9 64.7 65.0 66.7 68.2
1934 : 71.1 71.7 71.4 70.3 72.1 69.2 69.8 70.4 68.8 69.2 70.6 71.8
1935 : 73.5 75.5 74.4 72.3 74.4 73.8 72.4 74.3 75.8 74.3 77.2 79.9
1936 : 78.6 78.5 81.6 78.7 82.2 83.3 82.2 s4.2 S5.0 86.6 90.0 96.9


- 9 -


PES-2








P2 S-2


- 10 -


Table 2.- Eggs, estimated storage ma


: Seasonal average st. : Seasonal aver
Year : pkd. firsts at Ti.Y., : refrig. firsts
__ : T.r June : Sept.-Jan.
: Cents Cents


1916.........
1917..... .:
1I18 .........:
1 19......... :
1920 ......... :
1921......... :
1922.........
19023.........:
1'24 ........ :
1925......... :

1927.........:
1928 ......... :
19 9.'......... :
1.30........ :
1'ij31......... :
1932........ .:
1933.......... :
1i'34......... :
10 35 .........
1936.........:


23.27
57.52
36.88
45.90
45.92
28.4?
27.71
28.36
26.54
31.79
31.68
25.72
30.54
30.21
25. G3
19.08
14.58
14. 271
17.4.7
2 5.06
21.24


33.70
37.81
46.37
51.68
56.44
36.78
29.50
30.92
39.40
34.27
36.31
34.15
30.87
38.22
21.32
19.42
* 23.43
* 16.42
22.48
23.66
* 1/26..79


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08739 2543
S--- .- '. .-

rgin, 1916-36


age .
at N.Y. :Storage Mgi;n.

Scents -

10."43
,439
9.49
5.78
10.582
8.31
1.79
2.56
12.86
2.48 j
4,63
8.43
.33
8.01 .;
o- 4.4 ..
.34
9.05
8.12.
5.01 2 ,
1.40
1/ 5.55 '


17/ P]reliia nar--.


Correctic n:


In tablc ?9 ,n page 1-' of the January "Poultry
prices should be corrected tc read:


and Egg Situation" the 1925


Jan. Feb. ar. A-r. Ilay June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Cents Ce.ts Cents Cents Ccnts CLrnts Cents Cerns Cents Cents Cents Cents

1925 48.6 35." 2J..? 24.2 24.8 26.1 27.9 30.0 31.1 37.7 46.8 48.1




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