Poultry and egg situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
July 1953
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00011
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00011

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text

: ": FOR RELE

TH E (.

ITU. AT ION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRIj-
/-166 L UGUST 19i


Approved by the Outlook and Situation


SUMMARY


The supply of eggs for the rest of 1953 is expected to be about the
er person, as in the last half of 1952. Production is likely to
.o-the record fall level of 1952 since the number of layers is expected
:tlbt.r above 1952 levels and the rate of lay higher. However, part of
-n in output will be offset by the reduction in storage holdings of
Ieggs which were the smallest of record on July 1. These supply pros-
:itndicate that prices to farmers in the last half of 1953 will be
...to 1952 levels than was the case in the first half of 1953.

With fewer layers on farms, egg production in February-May was about
ion cases, 2 percent, less than in the same period of 1952. Prices
,by farmers averaged 10 cents or more per dozen higher. By mid-year,
::the number of layers on farms was about the same as a year earlier
tion was up slightly. Prices to farmers in mid-July averaged
ts per dozen compared with 43.3 cents at the same time in 1952.

SDespite the favorable egg-feed price ratio this spring, farmers raised
j i:chickens for laying flock replacement than last year. The preliminary
..of chickens raised shows 615 million for 1953 against 617 million in
BSecause of the steady trend toward greater output per bird this very
i secrease is not likely to reduce 1954 egg production from 1953 levels.

Broioer marketing are continuing high, reflecting the heavy chick
0s oF 9-12 weeks ago. Placements are turning downward, probably
a of'te seasonal shortage of hatching eggs. Broiler prices received by
is :in mid-July averaged 28.2 cents per pound compared with 26.2 in June
k.13 cents in July 1952.
Supplies of farm chickens, mainly by-products from egg production, are
lWasing seasonally. Mid-July prices received by farmers, 22.7 cents per
uid' were about the same as in the previous month and almost a cent above a
Wago.

Turkey hatchings to July were 13 percent below last year. On July 1
I storage holdings remaining from the 1952 crop were 52 million pounds,
Pllion less than a year earlier, but 9 million pounds above average.


(1'ir-


A



.M.



53


t'.*







JULY-AUGUST 1953


' Pol ROB AiD MB SITUArI AT A MAUI


: :th
ite Unit ior A -5
t data -
: |



Far production ........ N1i. doz. May 508.7

Average number of
layore on fae ....... Ml.mona HKay 3142.1

Rate of lae per
100 layers ........... gea May 17.9

Apparent civilian per
capital disappearance .. Egga May 31.8

Frozen egg produotioa ..: l. lb. May 79.6

Dried egg production ... MN1. lb. May 16.7

Price received by
farmer ............... Ct.per doz.: June 36.4

Frice received by
farm..er as a
percentage
of parity .............: Percent : June 97


Egg-feed price ratio ...: Lb. feed : June 11.0

Stocks:

beall ................ sihoe.aaaes: June 1 5,466

Irozen ...............: M. lb. : June 1 218.0

Chicks hatched by om-
maNrlel hatobearee ....: Illms : May 252.2

Yo'in chicker ::
on fi-na ..............: lll : June 566.7


ration ................ Dol.per owt June 3.38





Price received by farm- :
ers for chicxeno, live
Broilere .............. :Ct. per lb.: June 30.1
Farm-chickens ......... :Ct. per lb.: June 25.3
All cbicren ......... :Ct. per lb.: June 26.9

Price received by
farner- for all
chickens as a
percentage of


parity ...............: p

Price received by
farame for turkey, :
live .................. Ct.

Stooks:

Poultry, excIsingz
turkeys .............:

Turkeys .............. M

Chicken-feed price
ratio ................. L

Turkey-feed price ratio : L

Average weekly place-
ment of chicks in
11 broiler area ......: N


percent : June



per lb.: June



1. lb. June 1

1. lb. :June 1


b. feed :June

b. feed June



11.,m : June


111



30.6



70.4

47.8


8.1

9.2


= : I: N : a :

1952 : 1953 a 1952 1953 C ants a
am data -urrnt situation


494.8 489.3 : June


323.9 319.7 : June

18.3 18.4 June


34.8 34.2 : June
::
62.8 59.8 2 June
:-
2.0 2.5 S: June
a:

35.7 45.7 a July
ma



78 107 :a July


8.5 11.8 :t July

'a
:t
3,184 1,431 :: July 1
:a
145.9 132.3 :: July 1

am
216.o 237.5 :: June
::

:!
484.7 469.3 a: July 1
::
4.21 3.86 :: July

FOUL=


:

26.8 26.2 : July
21.7 22.8 ::July
24.9 24.9 ::July





77 82 ::July



32.3 31.7 : July



122.4 63.8 :July 1

63.3 59.7 :-July 1


5.9 6.5 aJuly

7.7 8.2 aJuly



12.1 13.6 :aJuly
!!


424.6 415.9 42oo.9


323.1 306.2 304.4


15.8 16.3 16.6


29.4 31.8 30.5

53.2 42.3 46.5

15.5 1.4 1.9


39.0 43.3 47.7




95 88 102


11.5 10.3 12.3



6,241 3,357 1,523 a

252.6 166.4 159.7 :


119.2 116.6 136.3


570.3 462.9 461.6


3.45 4.18 3.83 "


Likely to exceed 1952 for
balance of year






For last half of 1953, will
probably be near 1952 level





Difference narrowing be-
tween 1952 and 1953 prices










)Near season peak
)


Main hatching season far
laying flock replacement
now ended


30.1 29.3 28.2 : Feed price declined from
25.6 21.8 22.7 last year, and offaets
27.1 26.4 26.1 s lightly lower broiler
price



113 82 85 a



31.4 31.9 32.3 Smller crop being Brown
this year


67.8 118.o 65.4

40.9 56.1 52.3


8.0 6.2 6.8

9.2 7.6 8.4


--- 11.0 12.2 : Will decline easaonally for
next few months


L *' '* -... ., ^ ^ w


I


I





PES-166


SITUATION AiD OUTLOOK

Farmers' July Egg Price
Somewhat Above 1952

Farmers' mid-July average price for eggs, 47.7 cents, was less than
5 cents above the July 1952 price of 43.3 cents per dozen. This contrasts
sharply with the previous 6 months, when 1953 prices were mostly 10 to
12 cents higher than in the corresponding months of 1952.

Supplies in prospect for most of the remainder of 1953, indicate
that farmers' egg prices are likely to continue fairly close to year ago
levels. Egg production in the remaining months of 1953 will likely ex-
ceed that of the same months of 1952. During the spring the opposite was
true, though the reduction from last year was small. Because of high prices
early in the spring, egg breakers got off to a slow start, and the total
accumulation of shell eggs in storage was the smallest since 19106, when
records began.

In late June 1952, abnormally hot weather cut both the quantity and
the quality of the egg output and resulted in a sharper-than-usual seasonal
price increase of 7.6 cents from mid-June to mid-July. The change this
year was an increase of 2.0 cents. Rises later in the summer are not ex-
pected to be above average. With 1953 mid-July prices received by farmers
averaging less than 5 cents above 1952, the monthly prices in the rest of
1953 are likely to be fairly close to the corresponding 1952 figures,

Egg Production for Rest of
Year Likely to be Record
for Season

On July 1, the number of layers on farms slightly exceeded the figure
of a year earlier while the number of young chickens on farms was about the
same. Despite the smaller number of early-season replacement chicks that
were started this spring, these 2 figures suggest that for the rest of 1953
and into 1954 the number of layers will be about the same,as, or perhaps
slightly above, a year earlier.

If current trends continue, these layers will produce more eggs per
bird than last years' layers.

In August and thereafter, the rise in rate of lay per bird (compared
with the same month a year earlier) is particularly apparent. If the trend
(which is graphed in the March 1950 Situation) continues this year, the rate
of lay for the last half of 1953 would increase about 3 percent over the
same period of 1952. With the number of layers little different from last
year, an increase in rate of lay will result in an equivalent increase in
total egg production over the record of July-December 1952.

It is significant that the great gains in annual egg output result
from increases in the rate of lay in the third and fourth quarters of the
year. This has evened out the supply through the year, tending to reduce
seasonal price fluctuations and the incentive for shell egg storage.


j^


- 3 -






JULY-AUG. 1953


'4

I



t.













P,


.14
ft














4,j
14t








i.'

t

a'<
Ug








'-I
t4


- 4 -


8888

00% WNktcn
t5 -co co


w^







8 8





U


* S r B





al ,










0 I n I e
cnW c


,*q a a.LA 6


88888
t 9 11 c4 -t


0008
.- I .CM 1


8888
Db-1,


S* *RS
6 004 r-4






8*888
* *


en
N

SIB,
U-\\00\0










WAu



\0R \
I I







U\

CA -4 ITkU

*: .* .*


(n I
A~ cu\ u-V
I en i I


u\ U\ U\ U\

.u\Ur\u\\


'-it


\ \0


0J 01'.0 U\ 01
U % U\ UNf U\
I8





i~ U'%U U' UN t



~q~000
u'u-'U'.
Saill it I









en (rk tA A
;n *-<* (n cn

"- '

I I I. 1 I
- m 'i i u fr


omo Ac
U\ U\ U\UW
I I I






(n Pf%\D %D


A ^


I Z
U' U\'.O '0


Q U COV%
'sL\5 \uo \'oZ



Lf r%\ Le %LE o





A
U'%




lU\l UN Uf

uf\ Lr I\

Lr% ir% ii\D tr-



A*ES

(Io ll,
ene e


* *
-*fi =- i-I- -


r-4 r-


**4S*jSt$*j$i
- "j *^L -4 "^r
vo vovowvo
-kkkkk
\D \D VOKO SO *






6 5-

Table 2 .- Chicken numbers, egg production, and egg prices, monthly, 1951 to date


Item : Uhit 'Jan. : eb. : Mar. : Apr. : .May : June
. j. .. .. :, __ t : : ,


Layer.. on hand firqt'
of idanth
3,951 ""
1952 .-
1953.. .

Average number-of eggs I
100 layers during the z

1952"
1953.

Eggs produced on fr
1951
1952
195.3'



1 9 5 1 'f U ,
1952 f
1953

Youmg chickens on farema
first of month 4/C
1951
1952
1953.
i .- If


frj:; Million

: do...

per -f"


re-
igga


h:
Number
do. :
do.


: Million cases:
do.
S .do. :



Cents
do. :
: do. :


38Q 37. 364
S391 38. ..370
383 370 ;358


1,347
1,395
1,447


14.1
14.9
15.1



42.6
40o.5
45.8


1,405
-1,510
1,463

. 14.4
15.7
14.8



41.4
* 34.7
42.0


1,735
1,-773
1,794


17.1
17.7
. 17.5


43.7
34.o
44.7


Million,
do.
do.


329
341 ; 333
. 44 329


1,789
1,799
1,811


16.8
17.1
16.9



43.2
35.2
3 .a
45.5



201
218
215


*1,838
L,833
1,837 ;


-16.3
16.5.
614.3 .



45.2.
34.2 ,
45.9,.


4o6
382
380


July : Aug. : Sept.
*


Layers on hand first
of month
51 : Million
-.4.'.. .:" .. do.
395 : o.
-Aver-t number of eggs 'per -
100 layers during the month:
1951. : Number
.... -.. do.


Eggs producedd on.fa as..... : ;
*19i56. ; I :.' n:Million cas
1952 : do.
1953 : do.


1 297
. .-,'97.8
. .. .* : '


ies


1,561
: 1,516



: 12.6
: 12.3


285
;. 290




1,413



11.4
11.5:


Oct. :


Nov. : ec.


297 '336
303 .. 342
'' ;*.'
;** -


1,246
1,27,3



10,9
,1-.1


1,202
1,243


.1,153
.1,205


*1..7 12.0.
12.1"' u.k


i e. loat 1 ,t

r .951;" .... .. .. : 6.6 49.6 55.0 55,6 .55
S ,.19.5 .. ... -. do .o ... ..,


195 4.. -- 45 4 B424.4 3.01 4 244
1952 ","4" *9. : '.. 8 1 21 ..a -' .3.. 8
1953


y Beginning August 1, pullets not yet of laying eae.


PES-16


311
315
311



1,664
1,630
1,659


14.1
13.9
14.0



S44.7
35.7
45.7



523
485
469


1,235
1,324


13.2
14.0



. 51.1





'55
*42


- 11


ont





JULY-AUGUST 1953 6 -

Table 3*- Eggs: Annual production en farms, by quarters and
cumulatively, 1940 to date

: ... Quarterly :_ Cumulatively
Year Jan.- Apr.- : July- Oct.- Jan.- : Jan.- : Jan.-
SMar : June Sept. : Dec. June : Sept. : Dec.
: Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil, Mil. Mil.
cases casge cases cases cases cases cases

1940 : 28 39 25 18 68 92 111
1941 : 31 39 26 21 70 96 116
1942 : 36 46 30 24 82 111 135
1943 : 42 52 33 25 93 126 152
1944 : 47 54 34 27 101 135 163

1945 44 51 34 27 95 129 156
1946: 45 50 31 29 96 127 155
1947 44 48 32 29 92 124 154
1948: 42 47 33 31 89 121 153
1949: 43 45 32 35 89 121 156
1950 : 46 47 35 35 94 128 163
1951: 46 47 35 37 93 128 165
1952 : 48 47 35 39 96 131 169
1953 : 47 47 95


Chickens Raised About
Same as Last Year

Farmers are raising 615 million chickens this year for laying flock
replacement, according to a preliminary estimate. This is about the same
as the 1952 figure of 617 million, which is the third lowest figure since
1937 (table 5).
Farmers are now saving more pullets as layers from each 100 chick-
ens they raise, and they get much greater egg production per pullet. As
a result the egg production potential of the 1953 flock is far beyond
what would be indicated by comparing the 1953 number of chickens raised
with the historical record.

One of the important innovations is the practice of sexing chicks-
separating the pullets from the cockerels shortly after hatching. Many
commercial egg producers raise only the pullets, which practically doubles
the number of potential layers such producers save per 100 chickens raised.
In 1953, farmers intended to buy 38 percent of their chicks (exclusive of
broiler chicks) as sexed pullets, compared with 37 percent in 1952, and
17 percent in 1943. For the months March, April, and May of this year, a
sample of reporting hatcheries indicated that the monthly numbers of chicks
sexed were respectively 7. 14, and 24 percent above last year.






PES-166 7 -

The steady increase in '_* production eer lE.yer also must be con-
sidered when making cormparisons which span a long periZd. In 1952 the
number of eggs produced per hen and ptllet on farns January 1 .7;a- 145,
compared vith abcut 14 .ten years earlier. Over the sa-e 10 years, .ro-
duction r-er layer during the year rose from 142 to 178. Percentage
increase in the rate of lay per bird have been nearly the sEi.:e ac recent
population increases in the U. 'S., so increases in rate of l:.y have offset
population increases, and expanded. 1oying flocks have resulted in increased
per capita ecg suEL.Jlies.

C-.rrent data suigest tbit the size of the Jnuary 1, 1554 flock of
potential layers will be the sarae ?s or slicht'ly 7 roger than on Ja.nuary 1,
.19'3. The size o-" this flock vill overn e 'production -'or the first
9 or 10 months of 19i5J. If the number of chickens raised ne::t year
stabilizes at around the level of 1952 and 1953; the seasonal dli-tribi'.tion
of the 1954 ecg prcductton should. be similar to c]at expected this year,
with record fall a tt.ut followin,: a relatively small soring-ILime produ.tion.
Assuming a continued increase in raL:e ofi1;,, ift Is likely to result in a
per capita eGL sup:.ly for 195, not si-aificantly different from the 3q5 egs
per csaita nowr foreseen for 1953.


Table 4.- Young chickens on frmns first of monLh, Akril 1>'53 t:. date and
chickens raised. 1953, by regions
-* __ ReBion ________
i :r a .. : est : United
Iten U North : rh arth south South est- : Sttes
: Atl.-ic CentrlAtlantic'Central ern

: : () s a -erceutage of previous year

Young chickens on:
farms first of : :
nonth, 1953 : :
April :Percent: 2 8.8
May : do. 99.6
June : do. : 96.8
July- : ic. : 9.7

Chickens raised :
for laying flock; :
replacement, for:
the season,
1953 1/ : do. : 103.2 101.5 1C3.3 99.5 93.6 7".9 99.7
S(b) exportedd nu mbers.

Chickens raised
1952 :Million: 106.1 117.8 151.8 67.3 .1-2.8 61.2 617.0
1953 1/ : dc. : 109.5 119.6 156.7 63.7 105.5 60.0 615.0


1/ Preli.iinar/.





JULY-AUGUST 1953


Table 5.- Chickens raised, and related factors indicating egg-laying
potential, 1930 to date

Sexed : Potential layers :
: pullets : on hand,Jan. 1 Pullets Eggs laid
: as a : following Jan. 1 during the: Index of egg
:Chick- percent-: : : -- following: year per production
Year : ens : age of Pullets as a per- hen and : per chicken
:raised: farmers .: laying centage pullet on raised
: : chick :and not: Hens Total of : farms : (1935-39=100)
Sur- yet : : chickens: Jan. 1 2/
: :chases 1/: laying. raised : J 2


1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949


Mil.

777.0
709.4
735.5
750.1
: 644.4
: 658.3
: 715.0
601.1
650.7
696.7

633.7
745.0
: 844.3
:1,001.4
: 832.1
: 890.4
: 737.6
: 719.4
: 615.1
: 705.1


1950 : 635.1 32
1951 : 663.5 33
1952 4/: 617.0 37
1953 L/: 615.0


Percent Mil. Mil. Mil. Percent Number


243.6
229.6
236.7
238.3
211.8
226.4
249.3
215.0
241.8
253.6

239.9
277.7
318.6
349.6
301.5
322.1
281.0
278.0
258.3
286.8

263.9
276.1
254.6


158.2
156.2
154.0
147.0
138.6
136.2
130.4
138.0
134.3
139.1
141.4
150.2.
170.3
174.0
172.4
150.7
150.5
139.6
141.o
137.0

146.3
143.7
151.0


401ol.8
385.8
390.7
385.3
350.4
362.6
379.8
353.0
376.1
392.7
381.3
427.9
489.0
523.6
473.9
472.8
431.4
417.6
399.4
423.8
410.2
419.9
405.6


31.4
32.4
32.2
31.8
32.9
34.4
34.9
35.8
37.2
36.4

37.9
37.3
37.7
34.9
36.2
36.2
38.1
38.6
42.0
40.7

41.6
41.6
41.3


93
96
94
91
89
96
95
99
106
103

101
110
114
112
112
119
118
128
131
141

139
144
145


/ Exclusive of broiler chicks.
2 Note that this column does not correspond to the preceding column which relates
to "--- Jan. 1 following."
3/ Essentially, eggs laid per chicken raised the previous year as a percentage of
1935-39 average.
4/ Preliminary.


93
89
91
86
82
93
93
95
111
107

102
118
116
116
104
121
112
134
136
162

148
166
164


-8 -





PES-166


Smaller Storage Stocks of Shell Eggs;
Frozen Stocks near 1952 Level

The unusually high prices of eggs in the spring of 1953 discouraged
the accumulation of shell eggs for storage, and are a factor in the low
holdings July 1 this year. (They are the smallest for the month since re-
ports were begun in 1916.) But holdings of frozen egg, 160 million pounds,
were within 4 percent of a year earlier. The frozen egg stocks on July 1
were 73 percent of the total combined stocks of shell and frozen. 1j

Weekly reports from 35 cities have shown net withdrawals of shell
eggs since July 1, suggesting that the 1953 peak of holdings for that com-
modity has passed. For frozen egg, however, further net improvements
occurred in the first few weeks of July. In 3 of the past 6 years, August J
has been the date of highest first-of-month holdings of frozen egg.

While stocks of frozen egg on July I were 7 million pounds less than
in 1952, production of frozen and liquid egg to date in 1953 has been greater
than in the same months of last year. The apparent consumption of liquid
and frozen egg also has been ahead of last year. Stocks at the beginning
of 1953 were very low, while a year earlier they were large. For the appar-
ent monthly disappearance of frozen and liquid egg, compared with last year
and the year before, see table 7, which supersedes a similar table published
in the last issue of The Poultry and Egg Situation.

With the seasonal swings in egg production evening out, as shown
in table 3, and price variations reduced, profit opportunities through
storage operations for shell eggs have become more limited. While shell
egg storage has been declining, commercial storage of frozen eggs has been
trending upward. Storage of frozen egg has been encouraged by its easy
adaptation to specialized uses, the relatively low cost of storage (with
risk of quality deterioration almost negligible compared with storage of
shell), and the fact that prices of the stored frozen product are not dis-
counted in relation to the freshly-prepared product as are prices of shell
eggs.

Dried eggs for commercial outlets have not yet supplanted other forms
of processing or storage as a large-scale stabilizer of the seasonal varia-
tions in egg supply. Of course, egg-drying operations are concentrated
into the first half of the year to take advantage of seasonally low prices
for the raw material, but the 10 million pounds of dried egg produced in
January-June this year were made from 1.0 million cases of eggs, while the
equivalent of 7.4 million cases were frozen, and 1.5 million cases were
stored in the shell.

Good Demand for Broilers:
Chicken Marketings Large,
Storage Holdings Half of Last Year

Broiler prices in mid-July were quite favorable to producers, 2 cents
higher than a month earlier and about the same as the average for all of
1952.

1/ Converted at the rate of 38.5 pounds of frozen egg to a case of shell
eggs.


- 9 -






JULY-AUGUST 1953


Prices of feed, the principal cost of production, have declined -
enough since last fall to reduce broiler production costs by 1 to 2 cents
per pound. With the July 1 outlook for above average feed grain production,
a large carryover in prospect, and a reduced grain-consuming livestock popu-
lation, .feed prices are likely to hold favorable to buyers.

The prompt recovery in broiler prices from June to mid-July indicates
that a good demand exists, despite large beef supplies, seasonally increas-
ing marketing of farm chickens, and low prices for fresh small turkeys.
Partly offsetting these competitive factors is the reduction in pork supplies.

Table 6.- Shell and frozen 'eggs in refrigerated storage,
June 1953, with comparisons


Shell eggs%


Date


Frozen eggs


Shell and frozen
combined 1/


S:1951 1952
: Thous. Thous.
: cases cases
*


* 1953 1951
* _________


Thus.
cases


.Mil
Ib.


: 1952 1953 : 1951 1952 1953
. Mil, Mil. Thous. Thous. Thous.
Ib. lb. cases cases cases


Total U. S. stocks


.47
31
33
62
109
i63
190
'191
176
151
122
95


67
53
61
84

146
.166
163
144
124
95
72


Stocks in 35


104
106
109
110
109
109
107
106
104
102
10Q


96
98
101
102
102
100
98
97
.95
92
89


Frozen egg converted at 38.5 pounds, equivalent to 1 case.
Given dates are for,1953; for other years, -corresponding Saturdays.


153
120
248
375
816
1, 431
1,523


34
75
159
309
973
2,083
2,427
2,270
1,615.
'958"
527
230


141
'238
942
1,596
2,184'
3,184
3,357'
2,728
2,169
1,709
1,000
393.


50
35
42
65
99
132
160


Janua
Febru
March
April
May 1
June
July
Augus
Sept
Octob
-Noven
Decemn


June

July


Aug.


1,456
1,029
1,350
2,069
3,387
4,867
5,671


ry 1
iary 1

1 :

1 .
1
t 1.
mber 1
er 1
ber 1 :
ber 1


20
27
4
11
18 :
25
1 :
8
15
22
29


1,263
884
1,009
1,927
3,811
6,308
7,362
7,226
6,194
4,888
3,685
2,701


1,886
1,616
2,515
3,785
5,072
6,973
7,680
6,971
5,91.8
4,921
3,476
2,275


1,607
1,628
1,642
1,6210
1,582
1,545
1,508
1,457
1,356
1,268
1,143


1,050
1,054
1,047
1,033
991
935
859


2,509
2,496
2,438
2,349
2,213
2,095
2,027
1,930
1,843
1,728
1,648


3,245
3,338
3,405
3,404
3,348
3,240
3,134


4,303
4,371
4,478
4,473
4,423
4,378
4,283
4,201
4,056
3,925
3,748


4,991.
5,054
5,063
.4,988
4,852
.4,691
-4,571
S4,443
4, 308
. :4,113
3,962


II II .........


m n ..


__


- o10 -


*


.


Drinci~'al cities 2/





- 11 -


Table 7 .- Frozen and liquid egg: Production, storage stocks, disappearance,
and price, monthly, January 1951 to date
S Production Stocks. Presumed Average price in
: : : Total : Total : :disappearance:: New York City
net, : re- : Net ;net production:
: Total : Dried :for use:ported, change : of liquid : Mixed
:liquid : g : as :begin- :during: and froen whole: Yolk Albumen
egg 7 :liquid : ning :month egg adjusted:
: : : or : of : : for changes : :
; j frozen a month : in stocks ; :
:Million Million Million Million Hillion Million


1951
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
.Sept.
dot.
Nov.
Dec.

1952
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1953
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Jul-v


:pounds


22.7
34,7
77.0
83.7
87.5
49.6
22.5
13.7
7.6
,4.3
3.1
2.3


23.3
48.2
62.7
63.7
71.1
47.9
21.8
12.1
11.0
7.0
6.0
6.6


20.5
45.3
71.7
70.6
70.2
55.2


I/ Liquid weight
(2 Based on only 5


L,


pounds pounds rounds pounds


5.3
6.5
8.0
8.0
10.6
8.0
1.9
1.2
0.7
.2
.1
.3


3.9
7.2
6.1
5.8
5.6
4.6
4.1
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.2
122

.8
3.4
6.7
6.5
7.5
6,0


17.4
28, 2
69.0
75.7
76.9
41.6
20.6
12.5
6.9
4.1
3.0
2.0


19.4
41.0
56.6
57.9
65.5
43.3
17.7
10.7
9.8
5.8
4.8
5.4

19.7
41.9
65.0
64.1
62.7
49.2


47.3
31.2
32.7
62.3
109.3
162.7
190.0
190.8
176.3
151.3
121.5
95.1

67.2
53.1
60.6
84.3
111.2
145.9
166.4
163.4
144.3
123.7
95.3
72.5

50.2
35..0
42.4
65.2
99.0
132.3
159.7


-16.1
1.5
29.6
47. 0
53.4
27.3
0.
-14.5 5
-25.0
-29.7
-26.5
-27.9


-14.1
7.5
23.7
26.9
34.7
20.5
-3.0
-19.1
-20.6
-28.4
-22.8
-22.3


-15.2
7.4
22.8
33.8
33.3
27.4


pounds Centa Cents Cents


34.7
34.6
35.8
36.3
38.1
36.8
36.5
36.4
36.5
36.5
35.5
35.5


31.7
29.0
28.2
28.8
29.3
30.7
32.7
32.8
31.4
31,0
33.1
35.1

32.8
35.0
36.9
38.2
39.2
38.1
38.1


55.0
55.5
56.9
56.8
61.1
61.7
61.4
61.0
60.5
60.6
61.0
61.4


60.2
50.9
51.2
52.4
51.8
50.6
51.5
53.0
52.1
51.2
47.8
46.6


46.5
47.1
50.1
52.2
55.8

54. i


33.5
26.7
39.4
28.7
23.5
14.3
19.8
27 .0
31.9
33.8
29.5
29.9


33.5
33.5
32.9
31.0
30.8
22.8
20.7
29.8
30.4
34.2
27.6
27.7


34.9
34.5
42.2
30.3
30.4-
15. 9


2/21.5
22.8
25.6
25.5
26.7
25.2
24.6
24.8
26.1
26.4
26.0
27.9


25.0
20.2
17.4
17.6
19.4
22.7
1/31.9
30.9
29.5
30.6
33.1
34.7


35.3
34.3
32.3
32.6
33.8
32.6
30.?


FES. 166


of eggs dried, excluding dried:egg produced from frozen egg.
days quotations. 1/ Carlots not quoted. Price given is L.C.L.






JULY-AUG. 1953 12-

SHee-ky placements of broilers in 'the renort.nThgreas'are declining
from what had been the highest' ustained'level ever achieved. The decline
"..probably will continue, since the mrher "of eggs suitable for hatching
goes:down in the late summer and fall. However, the number of -chicks al-
Teady placed assures large broiler supplies through September.

Farm chickens, of which marketing, are increasing seasonally, are
'being sold at prices yve r slightly higher,.htn alyear ago. The July mid-
'month average 4as 22.7 cents per pound, O.9 ce"ts above last'July but
seasonally lover by 1.6 cents, than the Janury-June '1953 average of
24.3 cents. Hens are selling at significantly stronger prices than young
chickens,. .A factor in the present price of farm. chickens has been the
reduction of storage stocks of fowl to a very -1 level.

July. 1 storage stocks of chickens 2g were 58 million pounds, about
in line with, the 5-year average of 67 miaion pounds, but little more
than half 6f -the 108 million pounds reported for' July 1, 1952. The July 1
holdings probably were near the season low, which last year was .hot re-
ported until September 1. For the 35 cities, the low of holdings of. [t6tal
poultry excluding turkeys] was the last week in June.

Fewer Turkeys Raised, but
Storage Stocks Contiue Large

Poult. production. in repoting hatcheries the first half of '1953 'as
13'percent below last year. But on July'l, 'the, number of turkey eggs 'in"
incubators was 3 percent larger than last year. Hatchings in thb 'last '
month or 2 have been nearer last year's rate than those at the beginning
of the season. The hatching season for heavy-breed turkeys, which com-
pri'sed 75 percent of last year'scriop, is now over,' The output of all
- turkeys this year will-fall below the record 60-million-bird crop of 1952.

Even with the Government purchase and diversion of 6 percent of. the
1952 crop, the resulting 33.7 cent average price'per pound received in
October-December was unsatisfactory to producers. *.Consequently, an industry
group meeting at the invitation'of the Departnene of Agticulture'rec6mmended
a 12-15 percent decline:this year in output of heavy-breed turkeys. 'The
Department of Agriculture preliminary report on turkeys raised is scheduled
for'release August 21:'

Early-season indications 'were that the percentage cut in numbers of
light-breed turkeys would be greater than for heavy breeds. But weekly
hatchery reports for the Shenandoah Valley indicate that recent egg settings
there have been ahead of last y,'ar, reversing the situation that prevailed
during the'first 4 or 5 months 6f 1953. 'The Valley, in Virginia and West
Virginia, is probably the site 6f the largest coAcentration of light-breed
turkeys in the U. S.
S'"The effect of the prospective reduction in the total crop on the fall
price outlook for turkey producers may be" partly offset by the above-average
turkey stocks remaining in cold storage. At 52 million pounds on July 1-,
these holdings were 4 million pounds lower.than last year, but 9 million
pounds higher than'the 5-year average.

2/ "Total poLltry minus turkeys and ducks."








- 13 -


o-~ CU
Cu U
5,-
Cu


I





ir4







+ *
-' p I
































0o a




.21
e -1 +
I


** *0

















4-







** ** ***


ri








O m
* H




a C
* -










o)


8.5






r-1
A


o -
4 *cit
I
'd U





5S:



















1-


N
rD

O ,O M r-OH 1 40 .

d rt l sF T0 wv H


w OR










LD 1oL r>
Lc1 CM Q



cu cu C



( M ,I
CMU
Cu CJ


.0




NtA
CU


w0 I--- \

tI
CM CV
C^Jr'!


.. *. ** .. 69 *to 5 **


'fl *r

m
Fq


a

H )
0 I
*9* 02
1414a


op ~1


.0 V. .. .. P. .0 .N. .. to ... *. 55


1

S0
r-I
H *


-* **

(S
4

0)
ctA


it 02

M* **
Pi H
m'


*
1-I












a



*H
1-t
*rI










S



H
l-F




S
*





r.-4


*
ri











*H
*,5



.1-4














*. .5


OJ
9




01








CM
H
r-1








6-
5-













cu
H
*




r I -u






r-l
*
cu






CM
P
co it












Z0
0
I N,
H\ *1*
H
'U


r14
*ri

qc)


ui
.. .. .. 0)
Hi00 C



'd ed
ra a





Qw WW O 0
d6 (d a *H

,&* e. ** ric o
0 *rI
*ri 6 r >





0 H e
( p a o (
4U r-l r-4 C *rl
(U E *H *-rl 'd El (1U

r- U -


PES-I1C6


f- 10
IC C
F-
cd


a
*u -4 U
.rj 0
0
e h
I-,,
0

*q .*. *5







'it
a
0
1


I- r--
DC CuJ

Cu


I






JULY-AUG. 1953


0 -0 t- W, 'I m ( t-- 04
0 CDi en M


,aocB 0 H: no 01cu o uo o
N r i. rj
:<-- '* "- I -' 4% '
Cn t~1 0 00 0 m CO 'O 6 1-
01 01 .4 A


U'%r i- tISO W'a c1
Ra I 6I -t o





p uO0 M MN A
01 : (9 H :




>01 01 -0 m

in ^ cn

U01 01 r4
01 H.. 0.


o% al t* 61%
01 *01 H.


fn0g 5I A%
01 01 1. 4

i 44 -


* -4 01 r4 co \0


tn ; 01.4. 4



f I 4 fta4.
. 01 t- A4 t- m
C1 C4. 01 r4*< .


-. .






; '
MAI -


.'4



**."

*^
-.


.5-.1


f.


'5* U


'em


: n<'s fn '-O O.\OmCu-\ U .% t --
( o* ( ( o\ I O-t N cf\O t' Dr n
C 01\* i tip
a <' "


A 4..


ft ftftt ft
41 4 v 84 r4S--I t;-

5. 8 GI HM
01 .401 >-4e i- 1* r
"' *"* .4.


*n 0% r l M- t- Os
SI %.

sn W 014 r-4


01
rIU%01
4%
4. .4
.4.


I- o- mm r4 u\ o eo ee r oj cb eo fn 0o \
s~g c ,sms.as cn9 r RXa o


0<1 .401 ,r4.4? f
5,-' S .: *
U m 0UN1- 0t- J 24



l.. 5 t S^ ** ** *S -." *.. **
0 U 0rin (h 01 %

cu10 b670 0a. lfr\F- to-jrt i0.


U*.S 1 9 *f- .' *-C 0.


E D*


:4 *'* :4 oI ;



.: i r13


* I I
* -. ..' I


~q4I



ij




Ij
A in
*;:ii'~iIi


- 14 -


.... .... ..





PES-166


15 -

Table 10.- Monthly poult production, United States and
Shenandoah Valleys March-July, 1951 to date


Percentage change from a year earlier
Year and -----
month United States Shenandoah Valley
1o which: ____
report : Turkey eggs in : Poult output jTurkeys: Turkey eggs in: Poult output
applies: incubators at : For : Cumula-:raised : incubators at : For : Cumula-
.: beginning : the :tive for:for the: beginning : the :tive for
: of month : month : season : year of month : month : season
: Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent

1953


March

April :

May

June :

July :

1952 :

March

April :


-13

-15

-13


- 3


-17


o -13


13 -26


57 198

21 108


June :

July :

1951 :

March :

April

May

June

July


6 20

6

6


138


9


21

53

51

65

146


60



59

56

54

57






JULY-AUGUST 1953


.03 ~b


I




i1











I I







di
i-
F1, )* *

























Ira



!.|









SI
0 1 p


o\




Y. \.. ,
m LfI-'!1
r'cb


03



CO)







COl
o





C (* (.


ton


LC\ 1'-
< i
L v.0
-in- rO


i 4

ti-N

-~
LrV.0
~ I
L~ '.~


. c r.'
14
Lf1%\!


S S;i


H4
*1



r-1
t.o





Ig


C1-.



e $
0 .
pa to.li
-9 '6 (

UM 4
S-* 0 (U
0 in 0

C a )


\1 V\ 0

I .. i


.I I- .c -






Ot-
LO Lu L
01 tr
OM>- LO


Il -@


-t-\





j tI
-t -t


i I

co cr
OJ r-f
-.r .-It


Lm\
iln u-1









Wr\ L\l
t I








U-N t








Lrx n
I I
0 cr




LrI, In\





! I
-ki ir



t-- lw
03Cr





I F
Ltr




krN tr


*
*r




-0 t
Q3 0 "Zo qi

i C. I C cu
4 $-1 4M 9' P:
0- ;1 5 C; gq 0 cu

4-o FO o u pL ro p
!: ?10 .d
a-p |3 a -P cq > GI


Le.t 01
.-0 .
L =%

-r

03 rec-



S-t
I .

r-

S*.-~t
o....f


CU



.










Ic



4-')
0

















I,
*

















P














;-I 0

rI U I "r
> 0 o
T-r-



















c 0 xr H 0 1
/ ,HI (-U 0 0o
0 i ^ Ki CM~


0 CH
c3 0

!> -r



.14
vf
S? a
*


+ -
XI ( 3*


*r-f
< **--
(U
.?o

1^


4 '

o 0
u '



Sd a

G 8
!}i)
O U2


ciC


- 16 -





PES-166


- 17 -


Table 12.- Turkeys: First of month U. S. storage stocks, monthly,
1945 to date; weekly, 35 cities January 10, 1953 to date

Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May :.June.; July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.:' Nov.: Dec.
WE Mil Mil.. Mil. l.-Mil...I4il." .MMl-..-Mi. Mil:' Mil. Mil. Mil.
1 .. lb. lb. lb .. lb. lb. lb. l. lb. lb.. -lb. lb. lb.

.. (a) Monthly., U.-.. -
1945 :. 73 74. 6 "46 .33 29 .27 21 18. 27, 1 43 78
1946 : 108 125 135 124 107 97- 79 ,63 55 45- 84 117
1947 :128 140 126 109 95 86 72 59 45 39 65 86
.19 ...83 83. .0. 5.5 41 -.33 27 19 -. 13.- 15 34 47
19,4. 51 51 55" 51 44, 36 33 -29 21 21. 35. 76 107
1950 : 127 138. 129 113 93 .77 64 47. 37'. 43, 77 108
1951. ; 10 .117 101 80 60 ,48 .39. -3 25- ..42 83 109
.1952' : 107 116 "107- .93 72 63 56 .46 44 ,.7-1 142 158
1953. :47 143 .117 92 72 60 52 .
:(b) Weekly, 35 cities

195311:
First :--- 93 77 62 48 38 32
Second: 92 89 74 58 46 38 31
Third : 95 83 71 54 44 36 29
Fourth: 95 79 66 51 42 34 26
Fifth : 94 39

1/ Holdings on successive Saturdays of given month.

Table 13.- Turkeys: October-December average prices received by farmers
and related factors, 1945 to date

.: : Price received :
SPIe recndex .of: Percentage of
Oct. farmers fo prices previous year 2
.e. :e Turkeys: turkey,per pound, : rece
Year soc raised : October-December : by : :
of :in given: average :farmers Oct. 1 :Turkeys ; Deflated
turkey year Reported P9-ce n :(1935-39: stocks :raised : price
a: : average :idoas- 1/: =100)
Mil.lb. Mil. Dol. Dol. Pct. Pct. Pct.

1945 : 27 43 .330 .171 193 121 122 93
1946 : 45 40 .372 .170 219 166 94 99
1947 : 39 34 .366 .142 257 87 85 84
1948 : 15 32 .467 .176 266 39 93 124
1949 : 35 41 .344 .148 233 234 131 84
1950 : 43 44 .328 .137 239 120 106 93
1951 : 42 52 .377 .134 282 97 120 98
1952 : 71 60 .337 .125 269 170 115 93
I/ Actual price deflated by index of prices received for all farm products.
/ Computed from unrounded data.





JULY-AUGUST 1953


- 18 -


Parity Prices
for E ;. -


. '


Table 14 lists the seasonal adjustment factors to be used for con-
verting monthly .prices received 'by farriers for eggs to a percentage of
parity, through June 1954. With no Government price program .for. eggs,,
the egg pri-e as a percentage of parity is- of only incidental interest to
produce. and trade groups, but it should be. observed thab; at ose time -
within the next 6 months the basis for computing parity for eggs is likely
to change in accord with the provisions. of: the Agricultural Acts of 1948
and 1949., The change will occur when the transitional parity f3 --re for
.eggs becomes lower than the modernized parity. Thb method of computation '
for both parities is specified in the earlier Act '

Transitional parity for eggs in July was higher (by leas than 2 percent)
than mbderniked parity, and therefore the modernized parity for eggs is'
'not yet: applicable.. But in January 1954 there will- be an automatic 5" per-
centage&point decline in the basis fort computing transitional parity,
independent of changes which may meanwhile occur in the indexes of prices
paid by farmers. At that time,' if not before, transitional parity for "
eggs is likely to fall below the figure for the modernized parity.


-- -- OQ - ---



"In 1945, 3-pouid chickens were produced in 12 weeks

.......on 13.5pounds. ef-feed-per chicken; .in: 1952- 1- -i- weeks on

S8.25.pounds of .:ed per chicken. .As a result of.this change '

and a similar change in turkey production, chicken and turkey

ha&'V"changed from luxuries-to staple foods.."
.. .*.-.- H. R. Bid in The Scientific Monthly,
.. October 1952.. .-,


S.. -
1' ~.
....................I


a


;:7~.. ... :....~:11::1~. -..


' '






Table 14- Eggs:
by months, Janu


Parity prices and factors involved in parity price computations
iary 1952 to date with seasonal adjustment factors to June 1954


: (1) : (2) : (3) (4) (5) (6)
: : : :U.S; average: Price received by ?armers
Month : Index of :Parity : Seasonal :. price :
and : prices paid: price :adjustment : per dozen : :.As a percentage
year : by farmers: per : factor :equal to 100: Per dozen : of parity
:(1910-14=100) dozen : : percent of ::
: /I : 2/ : : parity 3/ ; :
: Cent Percent eents Cents Percent


1952
Jan.
Feb
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1953
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1954
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
^june


278
279
278
278
278
278
277
278
278
277
276
276

276
273
275
276
275
275
276


50.7
50.8
50.8
50.7
50.7
50.7
50.7
50.8
50.8
50.7
50.4
50.2

47.4
47.0
47.3
47.4
47.3
47.1
4. 4


99
87
87
87
87
90
97
103
112
117
117
117

96
87
87
87
89
91
99
107
113
117
117
113


50.2
44.2
44.2
44.1
44.1
45.6
49.2
52.3
56.9
59.3
59.0
58.7

45.5
40.9
41.2
41.2
42.1
42.9
46;.9


40.5
34.7
34.0
35.2
34.2
35.7
43.3
48.2
48.7
50.3
51.9
46.6

45.8
42.0
44.7
45.5
45.9
45.7
47.7


81
79
77
80
78
78
88
92
86
85
88
79

101
103
109
110
109
107
102


_/ Through 1952, the appropriate index is that of prices paid, including interest
and taxes. Later in 1953 or in 1954 the modernized parity computation will
supersede the present transitional parity for eggs, and at that time the ap-
propriate index will be that of prices paid including interest, taxes, and wage
rates. 2g/ In 1952, Index of Prices Paid times Base Price (21.5 cents per dozen)
divided by 100 minus 15 percent on account of transitional parity. So far
(through July) in 1953, same formula except minus 20 percent on account of an
additional year transpiring in the transitional parity sequence. Later in 1953,
or in 1954, transitional parity for eggs is likely to be superseded by modernized
..parity, which will have a different base price:see te:zt. 3/Column (2) rwu..ti-plicl.
S-y comin (3).





U. S. Department of Agriculture
Washington 25, D. C.


Penalty for private
payment of postage .


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
II3 1262 08903 9886lll
3 1262 08903 9886


OFFICIAL BUSINESS

BAE-PES-166-8-53-4500
Permit No. 1001


*


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
LIBRARY
DOCUMENTS DEPT.
5-16-49
FNS-6 GAINESVILLE, FLA.