Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
September 1952
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
statistics   ( marcgt )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00006
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00006

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text





THE/


PES- 161


7c /62/


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Z SEPT.-ocr. 1952


POTENTIAL LAYERS AND EGG
PRODUCTION ON FARMS


1935 1940

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


1945 1950 1955

NEG. 48779-XX BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


Farmers are producing slightly more eggs in
1952 than their 1951 record of 165 million cases.
In the recent past, increases in rate of lay have
about kept pace with increase in the population of
the United States, so that larger laying flocks would
not have been necessary to maintain a steady level
of per capital consumption.


Egg prices last spring were so unsatisfactory to
farmers as to result in a 7 percent decrease in the
number of chickens raised for laying flock replace-
ment. The likelihood, therefore, is that there will
be somewhat fewer layers and a slightly smaller egg
production in 1953 than in 1952.







SEPT. -OCT. 1952


-

THE Po001. AiD BG SITUATIU O AT A LANd


:: Months
ite : Unit : o '
: date





Farm production ........ M1. doz. July

Average number of
layers an far ....... Millions July

Rate of lay per
100 layers .... ..... : Egg July
Apparent civilian per
capital dieappearanoe ..: Be July

Frozen egg production ..: i1. lb. July

Dried egg production ... M1. lb. July

Price received by
farmre ............... Ct.per doz.: Aug.

Price received by
farmrs as a percent- :
age of parity ......... Percent Aug.

3 3
Retail prrie (RU) .....;ot.per w oz.s July

go-fted price ratio ...: Lb. foee s Aug.

Stock :

bheo ................ Ihos.caes: Aug. 1

Frozen ...............: 1l. lb. : Aug. 1

Cbicks hatched by oa- l
nmroal hatchersie ....: Millions July

Pullets not yet or :
laying agem a fs : M11ma. : Aug. 1

Fare price of poultry :
ration ................ :Dol.per aot Aug.




Price received by farmers:
for chickens, live :
Broilers .............. : Aug.
Farm chickens ......... : :Aug.
All chickens ..........:Ct. per lb.: Aug.


Price received by farmers:
for all chickens as a :
percentage of parity ...: Percent :Aug. 1

Retail price of chlokena;
dressed (BAE) ......... :Ct. per lb.: July


Price received by
farmers for turkey,
live .................. Ct. per

Stocks:

Poultry, excluding :
turkeys .............: Ml.

Turkeys .............. M:l.

Chickon-feed price
ratio .................: Lb. L

Turkey-feed price ratio : Lb. f

Average weekly place- :
ent of chick In
11 broiler areas ......: aM11


lb.: Aug.



Lb. :Aug.

lb. :Aug.


sed Aug.

sed :Aug.


a00


:Aug. -


: m: :: s :

L 19510: 1952 Or 1951 1952
: :: date : : -current situation


315.7 342.7 346'.2 "
ISeptember 1 rate at lay
it multiplied by Besta-
293.7 290.9 396.6 ) ber 1 number of layer
Swa vs almost 3 percent
I larger than last year
12.9 14.1 14.0 )


29.4 30.1 29.9

12.2 10.9 9.3

11.4 0.5 1.1


42.3 55.0 48.7 Bnlov last year


EOGS

362.2 378.6 371.9 Aug.


301.5 291.0 294.6 Aug.
::

14.4 15.6 15.2 : Aug.


30.0 30.9 31.2 Aug.

26.9 19.5 16.6 Aug.

13.7 0.7 1.6 2: Aug.
12
39.4 49.6 48.3 Sept.



96 91 92 i Sept.
3'
50.4 67.3 66.3 3: Aug.

12.5 12.0 U11.4 3 Sept.

23

6,257 2,270 2,728 :: Sept. 1

257.6 190.8 163.14 1 Sept. 1
:3
60.5 104.8 83.6 : Aug.

299.4 294.4 283.3 :: Sept. 1


3.23 3.96 4.24:: Sept.


POLTBT



29.3 29.7 30.9 ::Sept.
24.6 24.6 22.3 ::Sept.
25.8 27.2 26.5 ::Sept.



/115 87 82 :!Sept. y

43.5 55.5 53.3 :: Aug.



30.4 35.3 32.6 ::Sept.
::



76.0 76.9 100.6 ::Sept. 1

30.4 29.8 46.5 ::Sept. 1


8.2 6.9 6.2 ::Sept.

9.5 8.9 7.7 ::Sept.


--- 9.8 9.0 ":Sept. --


1,615


2,160


!40.6 176.3 144.8 Being used fTater than
5 last year

45.7 89.1 75.5 :Mostly for brotlera


270.2 253.7 221.8 l

3.24 3.99 4.28:


29.8 29.1 31.2 :Nide spread between
24.2 23.9 21.8 3 broiler and farm
25.5 26.4 26.3 chickens



114 84 82


44.9 55.0 56.2


31.2 36.3 33.2 Price reflected record-
large crop



92.7 96.7 100.0

24.2 24.8 41.6


8.0 6.6 6.1

9.7 9.1 7.8


9.1 9.2 Likely to exceed 1951 for
--- : reminder or year


y For 1941-50, these prices as a percentage of parity are based on unrevised chicken price.


93 86
71.9 68.8

13.8 U11.


m





PES-161


THE P 0 U"L, T R Y A N D E G G S I TUATI O N
(Approved by Outlook and Situation Board, October 1, 1952)
SUMl1ARY
Demand for poultry prcduccts in :.'953 is expected to continue as strong
as it is this fall. Production of eggs and turkeys is likely to fall below
1952 and prices for eggs next spring probably will be above the relatively low
level of this year. Broiler output probably will again increase, though at a
smaller rate than in most recent years, and prices are likely to be near or
slightly below 1952 levels.

Poultrymen's incomes in 1953 will, in the aggregate, increase over the
relatively poccr year of 1952. The increase will be most apparent to egg pro-
ducers, whose eggs are likely to sell at higher prices while costs will hold
steady or rise only slightly. Turkey producers also may have 1953 returns
above 19952 expectations, but the broiler industry is not likely to increase
its net income under the supply and demand conditions expected for 1953.
Through iMarch, when the ceiling price provisions of the Defense Production Act
of 1951 remain applicable, none of the poultry commodities are likely to be
at minimum ceiling price levels for any sustained period.

Decreases in production of eggs and turkeys are not expected to be large.
Total output of pcu] try products in 1953 probably will be only slightly below
the record total estimated for this year. About 390 to 400 eggs and 35+ pounds
of poultry meat per person are expected to be available next year compared with
406 eggs and 35 pounds cf chicken and turkey this year.

The egg supply next spring is expected to be smaller than it was in the
same period of 1952. The nation's laying flock next January 1 is likely to be
2 to 4 percent smaller than a year earlier. Scme increase in the rate of lay
per layer is probable but it is not likely to be large enough to fully offset
the decline in the number of layers. With demand strong, prices are likely to
be above the low levels of the spring of 1952.

Higher egg prices next spring probably would mean a higher egg-feed
price ratio than a year earlier, since feed costs are not expected to change
much. A more favorable price-cost relationship to poultrymen probably would
lead to an increase in the number of chickens farmers raise.

Most marketing from the record-large 1952 turkey crop are yet to be
made. Farmers' August intentions were to market an increased proportion of
this year's crop in October or earlier. If these intentions were carried
through, turkey prices may increase as the season progresses. Conditions
affecting the price of the 1953 turkey crop are likely to include a smaller
number of turkeys than were raised this year.

Broiler prices for 1953 are likely to average slightly lower than the
average of 1952 prices to date, if present expectations for a moderate increase
in production are borne out. Although wide month-to-month variations in broiler
prices make some sales very profitable and others the opposite, the average
experience of the last few years has been that typical per-unit profit margins
in the enterprise have been narrowing. This situation is expected to continue
into 1953.


- 3 -






SEPT.-OCT. 1952 .


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PES-161


OUTLOOK

Higher Incomes Expected in 1953
for EJgj Turkey, Producers
The value of eggs and poultry produced in 1353 is likely to be
greater than that of 1952. Prices for pGoltry products are expected to
average higher than in 1952 with an irncre.se fo:z eggs more than offsetting
declines for chicken meat, The total quantity of aggs and poultry meat
produced is not likely tJ be much different in 2953 than in 1952. A
slight decline expected in cubput of eggs and turkeys probably will be off-
set by an increase in the production of broilers.

Although poultrymen's costs of production ;.ill remain high, they are
not expected to rise as they have in the past year: (From September 1951
to September 1952 the index of prices paid by farmer for production items
including interest, taxes, and wage rates, rose from 293 to 296, on a
1910-14 base.)

The declines expected in 195? production of eggs and turkeys will be
mozr than offset by the expected price increases, .and cash receipts fcr
these commodities are likely to be higher in 1953. With per unit costs
about the same as this year1 net income also would be higher,

Broiler prices are expected to be about the same a-, in 1952, or
perhaps even a trifle lower- One of bhe principal potentialities for
improved incomes is through ber.ter control of the diseases which recently
have plagued the industry.,

Table 2 itemizes the gross income of various segments of the poultry
industry (grcss value cf sales plus value of products consumed on farms)
for several) recent years. No comparable statistics are available to
measure the net income of poultrymen.


Good Consumer Demand in 1953; Prices
Paid by Farmers Also to Remain High

The general economic outlook indicates that consumer demand for food
will be at least as strong in 1953 as this year, With the population
expected to increase 2 1/h million above 1952, expenditures for food are
likely to be at least up to the 1952 level. The expectation of generally
good demand and not much change in supply suggests that the index of
retail food prices is"not likely to change much from the anticipated 1952
level of 232 (1935-39=100)

----- -- -- -- -- -- --.-- -- -- ---. -- ------- -
a Most 1945-50 data relative to poultry and, egg production, 9
and numbers of birds on farms,ewere extensively revised in the :
spring of 1952. The revisions, discussed in the March-April
issue of the Poultry and Egg Situation, were made in light of :
the findings of the 1950 Census of Agriculture, Accordingly, "
many 1945-50 entries in the tables in this Outlook issue of
the Situation differ from the corresponding entries in pre- *
ceding Outlook issues .
S- - -- - --






SEPT.-OCT. 1952


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- 6 -


I :





PES-161


The 1953 supply of foods other than poultry and eggs is likely to
include significantly more beef, less pcrk,and about the same amount of most
dairy products as in recent years and. about the same amounts of other
foods. These changes are not likely to result in much change in the pat-
tern of demand for eggs and poult ry.

Demand for the products poultrymen buy also is expected to continue
strong. Corn prices received by farmers probably will decline seasonally
during and shortly after the harvest, but later in the season are expected
to rise above the loan rate, which will be $1.60 per bLshel, compared with
the mid-September average price of $1.71. Most other feed grain products
are expected to be priced near their usual relation to corn. The higi-
protein feed ingredients which are used to balance poultry rations have
been at ceiling levels for mrinths, and the standard items in this category show
.little signs of weakness. Supplies for 1952-53 of both high protein
feeds and grain concentrates will probably be below 1951-52.

Poultry equipment for brooding, feeding, etc., is expected to
continue near 1952 price levels, particularly that made largely of metals,
or that which requires relatively large inputs of labor for manufacture.
Prices of building materials are not likely to change much from current
levels.

Iabor costs to poultrymien, particularly those on the fringes of
urban areas, are likely to refLect the near-full employment conditions
that exist in the economy. Of all of the poultrymen's major expenses,
wage rates have shown the largest percentage increase since pro-war.
This increase has been behind much of the drive to mechanize operations
in the poultry house and to introduce labor-saving equipment. The
introduction of such equipment often reduces costs when considered
over an extended period, but in so doing converts the expense of per-
forming an operation from a day-to-day operating expense to a fixed
overhead expense. This helps to stabilize egg and poultry output, but
reduces farmers' opportunities to make adjustments to changes in the
economic outlook.

Higher Springtime Egg Prices
Expected for 1953

Egg prices in the spring of 1953 are likely to be higher than
the abnormally low prices of a yUar earlier.

With employment and incomes next spring expected to be higher and
the population larger, consumer demand for eggs is expected to be at
least as strong as in the spring of 1952. The speculative demand for
storing both shell and frozen eggs for later use also is likely to be
at least at 1952 levels. So far this year margins above springtime
costs for 1952 packed frozen egg aie favorable (the New York City
quotation which averaged about 29 cents in March-May was 37 cents in
September), and stores of shell eggs have had ample demonstrations that
wholesale egg prices in the 3ate summer are sufficiently above spring-
time levels to justify holding for short storage periods.



: *:


- 7 -





SEPT -OCT, 1952


The egg supply that will be available next spring probably will
be smaller than it was this year. The U. S. laying flock on January 1,
1953 is expected to be 2 to 4 percent smaller than a year earlier. While
increases in the rate of lay may partly offset the decline in numbers of
layers, past increases in rate of lay over a year earlier have generally
been the smallest during the spring.

Prospects for good consumer and storage demands and a reduced
supply next spring indicate higher prices for eggs than in the spring
of 1952. An additional factor beyond these supply and demand considera-
tions, which suggests higher springtime egg prices in 1953,is the possi-
bility that 1952 prices in February through mid-June were abnormally low
in light of the supply and demand factors then existing.

In this event, the seasonal rise in June and July next year pro-.
bably will be less than the sharp rise in these months this year. The
1952 rise coincided with the transition from net-into-storage to net-out-
of-storage operations in the wholesale trade and was perhaps a reaction
from the abnormally low prices which had prevailed earlier. (It also
resulted partly from the sharper-than-usual summer slump in 1952 egg'
production). This suggests that prices next summer will rise gradually
and will reach a peak during September or October. With normal weather
and an uninterrupted flow of eggs to market, peak prices in 1953 probably
will be close to the peaks in August and September 2952.

Significant shifts in the demand for eggs, when they occur, result
from increases or decreases in the use of eggs as an alternative to meat
or other main courses in meals other than breakfast. The 1953 total per-
capita supply of meat will be somewhat larger than the 141 pounds of red
meat and 35 pounds of poultry forseen for 1952. Although the proportion
of beef in the total meat supply will increase and the proportion of pork
will decrease, these changes are not likely to affect the demand for eggs.

Egg Production in 1953 to be
Slightly Below 1952 Record

Egg production in 1953 will be slightly under the 1952 record.
Since 7 percent fewer chickens were raised in 1952 for laying f.ock
replacement, farmers are likely to have from 2 to 4 percent f- ..er poten-
tial layers on hand January 1, 1953.

The reduction in the number of layers is likely to be only partly
offset by an increased rate of lay per bird. In January, February, and
perhaps in March, extensions of past trends toward increased rate of
lay can offset a large part of the effect of decreased numbers of layers.
For April, May, and June, however, production per bird usually shows
little increase over a year earlier. During those months production will
likely fall below last year by about the same percentage as the number of
layers.


- 8 -






PES-161


Table 3 .- Chickens raised, pullets on farms January 1 following,
and chick sexing, available data, 1930 to date


Pullets
on farms
January 1
following
?i


Year





30
31
32
)33
34
35
36
37
38
39

40
41
4e
43
44
45
46
47
'48
149

50
51
52


19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

19
19
19


Pullets on
farms as a
percentage of
chickens raised
3/


Percent


31.3
32.4
32.2
31.8
32.9
34.4
34.9
35.8
37.2
36.4

37.9
37.3
37.7
34.9
36.2
36.2
38.1
38.7
42.0
40.7

41.6
42.1


Sexed pullets
bought as a
percentage of
total purchases


Percent


20.9
17.2
20.3
18.5
22.3
26.0
30.0
31.0

32.0
33.0
2/34.0


For farm flock replacement; e:
Laying and not yet laying.
Computed from unrounded data.
Preliminary.
Intentions to purchase.


excluding specialized broilers.


Chickens
raised
1/


Millions

244
230
237
238
212
226
249
215
242
254


240
278
319
350
301
322
281
278
258
287

264
279


Millions

777
709
736
750
644
658
715
601
651
697


634
745
844
1,001
832
890
738
719
615
705

635
663
/617


/
/ IA


- -


_


- 9 -





SEPT.-OCT. 1952


- 10 -


Table .- Potential layers and annual egg production, 1935 to date
(data for cover chart)


Potential
layers
on farms
January 1
/


SMi

: Millions


364
350
363
380
353
376

193
381
428
489
5)24
474

473 .
431
418
399

424
41o
423


Egg production on
farms during the year


Per
Total : *January 1
potential
layer


Million
cases


101
93
96
104
104
103

110
116
135
151
163
156

155
154
152
156

163
165


Number


100
96
95
99
106
103

101
110
114
112
112
119

118
128
131
141

139
145


: As a percentage of average 1935-39


* Potential


layers
on farms
January 1
1/


Percent



96
100
104
97
103

108
105
118
134
144
130

130
118
115
110

116
113
116


.: Egg production on
'arms during the year


: : Per
T : : January 1
: Total : potential
* : player


Percent



92
95
103
10?
107

100
115
134
150
161
154

151
152
150
154

161
163


Percent



96
95
99
106
103

101
110
114
112
112
119

118
128
131
141

139
145


laying age, and pullets not yet of laying age.


Year


Average
1935-39
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

1940
1941
1042
1043
1944
1949


1946
1947
1ic48
1949

1950
1951
1952


__ I


i/ Hens, pullets of






PES-161


If weather and. other conditions affecting production are normal,
egg output in mid-summer 1953 will show a smaller percentage decline from
the spring-time highs than in 1952. Beginning in late June of this summer,
the weather was abnormally hot in much of the U. S. and both the quantity
and quality of the eggs produced were lowered. Output remained low through
the summer with the result that the seasonal rise in 1952 egg prices came
unusually early. If egg production declines more slowly in the summer of
1953 than a year earlier, the seasonal price increase may be less abrupt.

By fall, the volume of egg production will be increasingly affected
by the addition of 1953 pullets to the laying flocks. On the whole, more
pullets are expected to be raised than in 1952; but whether the monthly
distribution will show as early a hatch as in 1952 is uncertain.

Slightly More Chickens to be Raised
for 1953 Laying Flock Peplacement

The expected higher level of 1953 springtime egg prices will tend
to increase the number of chickens raised in 1953 above the 617 million
of this year. With poultry ration costs expected to be at or near cur-
rent levels, the springtime price level will result in a weighted average
egg-feed ratio more favorable to poultrymen than a year ago. This im-
provement in the ratio :ia; approach 10 percent. If it does, the number
of chickens raised might increase almost 5 percent.

The 1952 number ':f chickens raised was 7 percent below the 663 mil-
lion in 1951. From 1951 to 1952, the weighted springtime egg-feed price
ratio declined 21 percent, indicating that the adjustment in chickens
raised was smaller than would have been expected by the rule-of-the thumb
which associates a .- percent change in chickens raised with each 2 percent
change in the egg-feed price ratio during and preceding the hatching sea-
son. Because the 1952 adjustment in numbers did not go as far down as
was expected, it is possible that the increase in 1953 might be less than
would be indicated by the expected increase in the ratio.

The increasing investments in specialized and labor-saving poultry
equipment may be a factor restraining the swings in the number of chick-
ens. Having established the enterprise on a basis where labor require-
ments are minimized and the fixed costs for depreciation become a rela-
tively large proportion of total expenses, poultrymen may now tend toward
smaller year-to-year changes in flock size than was the case 10 years
ago. If this is the case, only a small increase should be expected in
chickens raised in j.953.

The 1952 decrease in chickens raised was confined to the late
season hatch: on April 1 the number of young chickens on farms was 9 per-
cent above a year earlier. This suggests that specialized poultrymen
and other farmers with large flocks--producers who practice intensive
methods such as early brooding-- did not curtail their operations.






I


- 11 -





SEPT.-OCT. 1952


Table 5 .- Egg-feed price ratio, chickens raised, and pullets on farms,
United States, 1925 to date


S Percentage of preceding year
: Egg-feed : Pullets :
Year price ratio :Chickens : on farms : Egg-feed : Pullets
Year (weighted raised : January 1: price ratio : Chickens : on farms
:average) / : :following: (weighted : raised : January 1
:- average) following

: Pound Millions Millions Percent Percent Percent


1925
1926
1927
1928
1929

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

1950
1951
1952


12.9
13.5
13.4
12.2
13.1

13.8
10.6
11.6
14.3
10.9
11.4
13.1
9.4
11.4
12.6

10.4
11.5
13.2
14.7
11.2
12.8
11.9
11.3
9.8
12.7

9.6
11.4
9.0


679
718
750
700
751


777
709
736
750
644
658
715
601
651
697

634
745
844
1,001
832
890
738
719
615
705

635
663
2/617


103
106
104
93
107


244
230
237
238
212
226
249
215
242
254

240
278
319
350
301
322
281
278
258
287

264
279


105
77
109
123
76
105
115
72
121
111

83
111
115
111
76
114
93
95
87
130

76
119
79


104
91
104
102
86
102
109
84
108
107

91
118
113
119
83
107
83
97
86
115

90
10o
2 93


94
103
100
89
107
110
86
113
105

94
116
115
110
86
107
87
99
93
111

92
lo06


1/ Weights are as follows: Preceding November, 1;
February, 4; M 5r-B, 5; April, 3; May, 1.

2J Preliminary.


preceding December, 2;


January, 3;


- 12 -




PES-161


- 13 -


Table 6 .- Egg-feed price ratios, and chickens raised by regions, 1941 to date


: New England
Year : Egg-feed : Chickens
:price ratio*: raised
: Pounds Millions


: Middle AtJantic : East North Central
: E-feed : Chickens : Egg-fed : Chickens
:Drice ratio*: raised :prlce ratio*: raised
Pcunds Miliorns Pounds Millions


11.6
13.1
15.2
11.2
13.7
11.9
13.0
11.3
14.1
10.6
12.5
10.2


23
28
34
31
34
22
25
23
23
27
31
1/33


1941
1942
193
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952



1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952


1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1943
1949
1950
1951
1952


10.8
13.9
15.3
11.8
12.9
12.1
11.0
8.8
12.5
9.2
10.7
8.3


211
246
286
239
259
215
216
163
195
175
173
1/152


11.6
13.7
15.4
11.2
13.8
12.0
12.5
11.2
13.9
11.0
12.3
10.5


62
72
94
80
91
70
71
65
80
73
76
1/73


South Atlentic


9.6
11.6
12.8
10.2
11.7
11.2
11.0
10.1
12.0
9.7
11.7
10.1


West Pouth Central


9.6
12.7
13.6
10.8
12.0
11.2
10.7
9.5
12.0
9.2
11.1
8.4


90
101
120
94
104
84
83
72
85
74
66
1/58


84
91
103
93
94
81
77
72
76
68
68
1/67


10.1
12.8
14.4
11.0
12.5
11.6
10.9
9.5
12.4
9.2
10.9
8.7


143
156
154
154
176
143
141
117
141
130
126
1/118


East South Central


9.0
11.6
12.6
10.2
11.4
11.3
10.6
9.5
12.0
9.4
11.2
8.9


Mountain


11.0
13.5
15.2
12.1
13.6
12.9
11.7
10.7
13.2
9.9
11.7
9.6


23
27
33
26
30
23
24
22
25
22
22
1/19


11.6
12.8
15.4
11.8
13.6
12.0
12.2
10.6
12.7
9.5
12.1
9.4


67
78
89
73
76
70
67
63
68
58
57
1/55


Pacific


42
45
53
42
51
38
41
40
46
43
45
1/42


I/ Preliminary.
* Weighted average of monthly ratios as follows: Preceding November, 1; preceding
December, 2; January, 3; February, 4; March, 5; April, 3; May, 1, except for the
year 1941 which J.s based on the months January to May only.


West North Central


f




SEPT.-OCT. 1952


. Small' Net Expansion in Broiler Output;
Little Change in Average Price

As in the past, broiler prices in 1953 are likely to show consider-
able week-to-week and month-to-month variation, with the result that an
Estimate of .an annual average price would be an uncertain basis for. a
typical broiler producer to plan his production. Most producers sell birds
no more than 3 or 4 times a year, and the prices on the days of their sales,
.rather than the annual average, are the ones influencing their profits.

The short-time fluctuations in broiler prices have some seasonal
aspects, in that they seem generally to average lower in the last few
months of each year than in January-September. This probably is related.
to the large supplies of other poultry meat available in th'.se months.

For .the few growers who are on a weekly production basis, however,
or for credit agencies whose interests are spread uniformly over the
year, there is significance to an annual average price. The expectation
of a moderate increase in 1953 broiler production, and an increase in
beef production, suggest that the average price in 3.553 rmay be slightly
lower than the 28 1/2 cents which is the U. S. average price received by
farmers for the first 9 months of 1952.

The assumption that the "average" 1952 experience to date is-not
likely to encourage broiler growers to make more Than a modest expansion
is-important -n-this expectation of only a slight change in broiler. prices.
At times during 1952, as in August and September, favorable prices pr.o-
bably made producers wish that they had committed themselves more heavily,
but at other.times broiler prices were less favorable. Therefore, the
analysis here is based on the belief that, if its short time ups and downs
were leveled out, that the broiler business in most areas would now be
revealed as a more or less mature one, in which the margins between costs
and returns are now less favorable than during the period when the broiler
industry was.making its greatest expansion. Some industry sources report
that average returns to farmers are about equal to the sum of operating
costs, reserves for the fixed plant, and a moderate profit. In the
established specialized areas, the bonanza aspects of the business are
over, except for occasional fortunate sales on infrequent high markets.

If this appraisal is correct, any rapid expansion of the industry
for the U. S. as a whole would reduce broiler prices enough to induce
ah eventual outback in chick placements. The relatively small net ex-
pansion that would seem justified in this appraisal is in line with or
below the 9 or 10 percent expansion expected for 1952, not the 27 per-
.cent average annual gains of 1948-51. Modest increases in output could
be absorbed without serious price effects if the steady retail distribu-
tion of broilers were undertaken in trade areas presently unserved. The
price effects of increased supply will also be partly offset by the popu-
lation gains in the U. S.


- 14 -







An additional factor which may encourage broiler production is the
possibility that controls may be found for some of the diseases that have
recently become acute. If air-sac disease, for example, is controlled,
the result might expand production even if the industry's increase created
the prospect for a lower price.

Possible developments amung competing tyres of poultry do not seem
to introduce new elements to the broiler outlook. As has often been the
case in the past, in the holiday months seasonally large consumption cf
turkey sometimes checks retail broiler sales, but the new brciler-roaster-
turkeys do not seem to be making sharp inroads into broiler demand. -The
explanation for this may be that the increase in Beltsville Small White
turkey output, though tremendous percentage-wise, has contributed to an
increase of only 1 1/2 pounds in the last 3 years in the per capital con-
sumption of all turkey. Recent prices for Beltsville turkeys have been
a disappointment to producers, and the present expectation is that their
output next year will not increase.

The expectation of a small increase in broiler production in the
IT. S. does not rule out a continuation of the current shifts among regions.
The trend in this res.pecz is toward slower expansion, or even reductions,
in some of the older area which are being more than offset by gains else-
where.


Table 7.- Chaniges in broiler placements, selected
reporting areas, 1950, 1951, and 1952

S : :- : Difference between
S : 951: J952 : 1952 figure and
Area :1950 : : : comparable 1951
SFull year : 9 months : 9 months :Number Percentage

Mil. i l. Mil. iil. Mil. Percent

E. Connecticut : 12 15 12 13 1 8
Del-Mar-Va : 155 167 129 95 -34 -26
Shenandoah Valley : 35 39 31 30 1 3
N. Carolina / 21 26 20 35 / 1/
N. Georgia : 67 l01 74 93 19 26
N. W. Arkansas : 39 52 41 39 2 5
Texas 40 57 43 50 7 16
Alabama 19 .14 19 5 36
Mississippi : 25 19 27 8 42
Florida 9 7 8 1 14
Indiana 38 29 28 1 3


Total : 370 549 419 437 2/3 2/ 1


1/ Reporting area expanded July 1, 1951.;
not be based on comparable figures.
2/ Exclusive of North Carolina.


computations of changes therefore would


PES-161


- 15 -




SEPT.-OCT, 1952 16 -

Prospect for Turkey Price Rise
in Coming Months: Fewer Birds
expected in 1953

The 1952 turkey crop of 59 million birds is record-large, and
marketing nrw being made from it are bringing lower prices than a year
ago. Available data suggest, however, that except in the North and South
Atlantic States, supplies for slaughter in November and December may not
appreciably exceed the 1951 quantities. Therefore, in most of the country,
prices may move closer to 1951 levels as the 1952 marketing season pro-
gresses. Reports from producing areas suggest that some producers, antic-
ipating such a price development, are having their birds custom-slaugh-
tered as they mature, rather than selling them outright.


Table 8.- Turkey production with breed-size breakdown, 1950,
1951, and estimated 1952

*: Estimated
Item 1950 : 1951 1952


Total turkeys raised, milliDns 43.8 52.3 59.0

Increase from previous year, millions 8.5 6.7

Percent Beltsville Small Whites 12.0 21.0 24.5

Number of BSW's, millions : 5.3 11.0 14.5

Increase from previous year, millions : 5.7 3.5

i'umber of other turkeys, millions 38.5 41.3 44.5

Increase from previous year, millions 2.8 3.2

percentt increase from previLus year in
number of other turkeys : 7 8



The expectation that most regions will have no more turkeys than
last year available for November and December slaughter, is based on
3 factors. The first is that 25 percent of the turkeys estimated to
have been raised this year are the year-round Beltsville Small White,
against 21 percent last year. This is partly reflected in the second
factor, that farmers intend, and have to some extent already accom-
plished, record-early marketing this season. The third is that almost
half of this year's increase in the number of turkeys is in the South
Atlantic States. As a result, in most of the U. S., a large part of
the increased turkey output may have already been eaten. Tables 9 and
10 support this expectation of relatively light marketing as the season
progresses, especially for the regions other than the South Atlantic
and North Atlantic. For the Horth Atlantic States, which remain deficit area:
despite the increased output, the increased output will be less of a
price-depressing influence than it would be elsewhere.





pES-161


Table 10.-


Seasonal distribution of farmers' turkey marketing,
1991 actual and 1952 intended


: Percent : hunbers marketed 2/
: Turkeys : marketed :-
Region raised : October : ctoter : After October
: or earlier: or earlier:
1951: 1952: 1951: 1952: -191 19- 195 1: 1952: 1952 as a per-
S : 1 : i/I : : 1/ : 951: / :centage of 1951
Mil. Nil. Pct. Pct. Nil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Percent


North Atlantic

East North Central

West North Central

South Atlantic


: 4.3 5.2 26.3 26.1 1.1 1.4


: 6.0 7.1 29.3

: 12.2 12.5 38.6

: 7.8 11.0 45.0


38.7

46.9

51.2


3.2 3.8


1.8 2.7 4.3 4.3

4.7 5.9 7.5 6.6

3.5 5.7 4.3 5.3


South Central


: 5. 6.0 31.0 41.2 1.7 2.5 3.8


Western


: 16.5 17.2 37.6


United States

U. S. excluding
South Atlantic


43.6


6.1 7.5 10.2


:52.3 59.0 36.1 43.0 18.9 25.4 33.4


: 44.5 48.0 34.5


41.1 15.3 19.7


9.7 95

33.6 101


29.1 28.2


1/ Intentions.
2/ Disregarding hold-overs for the breeding flocks..

Perhaps partly offsetting these factors in the short-term out-
look for turkey growers are the large stocks of frozen turkey held in
cold storage on September 1, and the large 1952 turkey production in
Canada.

September is normally the low point of the year for turkey storage
holdings. On that date this year the stocks were 41.6 million pounds,
against 24.8 a year earlier and 34 million as the average of the lows of


17 -

Table 9.- Proportion of turkey crop marketed in different
months (as reported by farmers)

Month of : : Intentions toward
marketing : : 1952 crop
Percent of output Percent of output

October or earlier 36.1 43.0

November : 33.8 30.4

December : 22.7 21.6

January or later 7.4 5.0


121

101

83

125


3.5


--




SEPT.-OCT. 1952


the preceding 5 years. This means that, to achieve any given level of
storage holdings at the peak (which is usually about February 1), less will
have to be held off from current consumption than would have been the case
last year. However, this year's storage excess over last year was no
greater on September 1 than it had been on August1l. Considering the large
volume of marketing of fresh turkeys that have already been made, the
movement out of storage in August indicates a good consumer demand for
turkey.

The U. S. Department of Agriculture is conducting a surplus removal
program for turkeys this year. The program is to-continue until Janu-
ary 31, 1953. To October 1, the Department had bought 6.5 million pounds
of eviscerated turkey.

The number of heavy-breed turkeys which will be grown in l953 will
be influenced by developments over the next 4 or 5 months. However, even
if prices received by producers rise in the remainder of 1952, it seems
doubtful that growers will equal this years record crop.

The 1953 number of small turkeys likewise is likely to decline,
although trends in this sector of the industry can be reversed during
the year to a degree that is impractical for producers of heavy-breeds.
Latest reports from Virginia, the State which probably produces the mcst
small turkeys, show that from August 9 to September. 20 the number of
turkey eggs placed in incubators declined by one third. Turkeys hatched
from these eggs will be ready for marketing after January 1.

There may also be a significance in the fact that in the North
Atlantic and South Atlantic States the proportion of Beltsvilles to all
turkeys did not increase as it has in past years. These 2 regions, which
have the largest proportions of Beltsvilles among the 6 U. S. regions,
held practically .steady.-at roughly 25 and 50 percent respectively, while
the other regions increased the proportions of Beltavilles in their
total crop by 2.to 5 percentage po-nts.

For Beltsville and large turkeys alike, financing is now very im-
portant to producers. This development, comparable to that which exists
in the broiler industry, may serve to temper the downward adjustments
that are expected in 1953 turkey .numbers. Relieved of part of the usual
risk, farmers may be less reluctant to continue the enterprise on a large
scale, 'whfie'the creditors' continued willin=nness t6-lend money may be
often explained by a desire to maintain near-capacity operations for a
feed mill or dressing plant, or other considerations.

The successive early indicators which will be relevant to judging
the outlook for 1953 turkey production, and its effect on 1953 prices,
will include (a) 1952 holiday-prices,; and January 1953 prices, (b) the
January reports of farmers' intentions to grow turkeys, (c) the volume of
turkey in cold storage at' the season peak, and finally (d) the mid-Febru-
ary report of number of breeder hens on'farms January 1.


- 18 -







- 19 -


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U. S Department of Agriculture
Washington 25, D. C.


Penalty for prive
avoid payment of


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08903 5777


OFFICIAL BLUINESS

BAE-PES -161-10/52-4700
Permit No. 1001


UNT"YB'TTY OF FLORIDA

I ,1-'NTS DEPT.
5-16-19
FNS-6 GAINESVILLE, FLA.