Poultry and egg situation

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Material Information

Title:
Poultry and egg situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Publisher:
The Bureau
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Creation Date:
July 1952
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Poultry industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Egg trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
serial   ( sobekcm )
statistics   ( marcgt )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Bibliography of agriculture
Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Citation/Reference:
Index to U.S. government periodicals
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with PES 1 (Jan. 1937); ceased with PES-308 (Dec. 1980).
Issuing Body:
Issued by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Dec. 1953-Mar. 1961; Economic Research Service, May 1961-Dec. 1977; and: Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, Mar. 1978-Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
Description based on: PES-301 (Mar. 1979).
General Note:
Previously classed: A 93.20: and A 88.15/2:
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000502977
oclc - 04506769
notis - ACS2711
lccn - 79643440 //r81
issn - 0032-5708
sobekcm - AA00005304_00005
Classification:
lcc - HD9437.U6 A33
ddc - 338.1/7/6500973
System ID:
AA00005304:00005

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Poultry and egg outlook & situation

Full Text

FOR RELEASE
AUG. 11, P. M.


THE
I T UAT ION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
PES- 160 X JULY-AUGUST 195Z


PULLETS ON FARMS JANUARY I

PER 100 CHICKENS RAISED


1955

ECONOMICS


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


30 [
1930


1935 1940 1945 1950
*PULLETS ON FARMS JANUARY I PER 100 CHICKENS RAISED PREVIOUS YEAR


NEG. 48740-XX BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL


To house a given number of pulleys, farmers now
start fewer chicks than they did 20 years ago.
This is partly because of competition from the
broiler industry, which has made byproduct cockerels
and pul.lets sold for meat relatively less profitable.
Therefore, farmers now buy about one-third of their




,K.


chicks as sexed pullets, and the poultry industry
has otherwise improved breeding, feeding, and
management so as to assure a larger proportion of
mature pullets acceptable for housing as part of the
laying flock.







2 -

7HE POLT AD B BIT-2-ATICB AT A GLANCZ
am PQXIL~hT Alt DO B11ITAfl AT A WJJORE


: onth :Ae
item t r :191-5c






Farz proa utlon ........ Mi. dot. MBy 500.9

Average number of
layer 'an farm ....... MIL : x May 338.6

Rate of lay per
100 layers ........... zas : )by 17.8

Apparent civillJan per
capital disappearance .. Eggs : y 31.3

Froten egg productlU .. Mi. lb. : ay 77.5

Dried egg produatimo ... Mil. lb. M: ay 16.6

Price received by
farmres ............... :Ct.pr dot. JJune '3.2

Price received by
faramr a a percent-
age of party .........: Percent : June 99

Retail price (BAU) ..... :Ct.pr doz.: may h5.9

Egg-feed price ratio ...: Lb. feed June 1.1I

Stoks: : :

Shell ................ : on.caase: June 1 5.8

Frozen ............... Mil. lb. : June 1 215.9

Chicks hatched by c- :
marclal hataherlee ....: Mlliom : May 247.3

Chicks and young ohick-
ens on farm .......... : Mll : June 1 565.6

Far prioe of poultry
ratlon ................ :Dol.per owt June 3.16






Prioe received by
farsre for all chick-
ena, including
brollers, live ........ :Ct. per lb.: Jmne 25.7

Price received by
f more am a percent-
age of parity I/ ......: Percent June 113

Retail price of chickenas
dressed (BAE) ......... Ct. per lb.: ify h5.1

Price received by
faraera for turkey,
live .................. :Ct. per lb.: June 28.7

Stocks:

Poultry, xoluding :
turkey .............: MIl. Lb. June 1 68. 4

Turkey .............. MNil. lb. : June 1 k6.0

Chicken-feed price
ratio .................: Lb. feed June 8.3

Turkey-feed price ratio : Lb. feed : June 9.2

Average weekly place-
mont of chioks n :
11 brollar orw ......: aill. e June ---


S _" ;: I : :
thAveCom C nts an
: 1951 1952 : or .9 0 1951 : 1952 c
: : date :l9 1- current situation


190.1 198.6 ::June


320.0 326.2 June


18.1. 18.? :: June


32. 3h. :: Jou

71.8 62.8 :: June

3.6 2.0 : une


41.7 35.7 :: July



91 78 :: July

61.5 52.2 :: June

11.3 8.5 :: July



2.1 3.2 :: July 1

1t2.7 1M5.9 i. July 1


271.0 216.3 :: June


522.9 688.6 8 July 1











28.6 21.7 ::Jul



91 76 *: July


6.8 50.1 ::Jan



35.8 32.3 :J:ly




77. 122.1 ::July I

87.9 63.3 ::July 1


7.2 5.9 :July

9.1 7.7 ::July



16.8 50.6 ::July


416.3 621.7 419.3 : low running below last year
|


319.7 306.0 308.6


15.6 16.6 16.3


28.9 31.1 31.8

53.9 39.7 41.3

15.6 2.7 1.h


36.9 16.6 13.3


10-year average boosted by
Government buying


96 91 88:

k7.8 65.5 1.0 :

11.7 13.8 10.3 : Improved greatly from June
to July


6.6 2.4 3.3 Large withdrawle from these
stocks have already begun
251.h' 190.0 165.9


117.-h 112.9 115.2 : Small late hatch for laying
: flock replacement

57h.5 508.2 166.7


3.21' 3.95 L.18







:Camposito of high broiler
26.0 28.1 26.0 : prices, low prSlee for
farm chikems


115 90 80


L .3 5k.6 51.9



29.5 35.3 31.9




66.2 73.4 118.1 : )
: ) Lare for the seem-
39.8 39.0 56.3 )


8.2 7.1 6.2

9.2 8.9 7.6


:October marketIags will be
--- 11.0 2/10.2 : lowset esine February


For 1941-50, these prices as a percentage of parity are based on unrevised chicken prices.
2 weeks.


ItLY-AUtLBT 1952





PES-160


- - - -
THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION


Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, July 28, 1952

SI4MMARY

Abnormally hot weather in June and July over much of the country
reduced egg production, and after mid-June prices rose much faster than
the usual seasonal rate. By mid-July, farmers' prices averaged 43:3 cents
per dozen, within 7 percent of corresponding 1951 prices. Many grades
in Eastern wholesale markets in mid-July were priced about the same as
a year earlier, although part of the gain in prices was lost later in the
month. During most of the first half of this year, farmers' prices had
averaged about 18 percent below a year earlier.

Egg production ran 5 percent ahead of 1951 during the first 5 months
of 1952, but June output was 1 percent below last year. July output is
likely also to be reduced since on the first of the month U. S. production
was 3 percent below last July 1.

The protracted hot weather also had adverse effects upon egg quality,
and the sharpest price rises were for the better grades. The price rises
would have been even more pronounced but for the withdrawals from storage.
These began late in June, somewhat earlier than usual,

In mid-July, broiler prices averaging 29.2 cents per pound were at
almost the highest levels of the year to date, although still not especially
favorable to producers. United States average prices for farm chickens,
217 cents per pound, were about the same as in mid-June, but otherwise the
lowest since last October. Turkey prices also were little changed from the
month before, and otherwise the lowest in about 18 months.

Although storage stocks of both chickens and turkeys are nearing
their season low points, they remain considerably larger than last year,
Accordingly, they are holding down prices of the classes of poultry for
which storage is important. Broiler marketing in the next few months
will decline because of slightly reduced chick placements. Consequently,
broiler prices for the next month or two may continue high compared with
their usual relation to farm chickens and to turkeys.

REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

Shell EMg Prices Risej
Some Wholesale Ma2 .ets at 1951 Levels

Shell egg prices rose sharply in late June and through mid-July. In
eastern wholesale markets the prices of top grades rose 25 cents per dozen
from mid-June to mid-July, reaching levels above a year earlier. Prices for
current receipt eggs in Iowa rose about 7 cents in the same period, also
exceeding year-ago levels. Prices for futures contracts also rose by about
5 or 6 cents, but remained below a year ago. After July 15 there were some
price declines, but prices remained relatively higher, even after considering
seasonal adjustment, than they had been during the spring.


- 3 -





JULY-AjUGUT 1952


The price rise for the top grades was probably a record for this
season of the year. In Hew York City, nearby whites rose 25 cents per
dozen in about 4 weeks. After a peak of 70-71 cents was reached for
such eggs, they dropped back to bout 57 cents per dozen in late July.

The protracted abnormally hot weather over many areas of the
country is one of several factors influencing the price rise. Since
late June, the unusual heat has reduced rate of lay, reduced the
proportion of market receipts which are of top quality, and-even
resulted in death losses in laying flocks.

The reduced-.output came at a time when per capital consumption
had been Migh, encouraged by-the low egg prices that had been in effect
through the spring. Consumption habits and patterns thus formed during
months of low egg p-rices did-not change os abruptlyy as production, and
the heavy demand for iLmediate use reduced the flow of eggs to storage,
from which the out-movement began in the week ending June 20. The
demand for the limited supplies drove prices to abnormally high levels,
2--cu which they declined toward the end of the month. From the late
July levels, the outlook is for some further seasonal price rise.

If the decline in rate of lay (from the level of a year aLo)
follows the pattern of the- 1st sich midsummer decline in 1949, the
rate is likely to remain low-for -anfother month or so.' However, the
monthly rate of production'may agoin reach or exceed 1951 levels by
October when the large numbers of early-h-tched ;ullets should be in
production. By the end of the calendar year, however, production r1.y
,-in fall below 1951, because of the fewer late-ha.tched pullets.

The Government's egg purchase program, under which 226 thousand
cases were bought, was concluded in June. When delivered-this fall,
the eggs will be donated to the school lunch program. Although the
purchases were less than 1 rercert of-the total U. S. farm -:roduction
of ecgs in May and June, the months in which the program was rctlve,
the npr,'chases were of high quality and. they *comr-rised a larger pro-
portion of the supply of that quality of egg.

Prices of frozen egg have moved upward with the increase. in.
shell egg prices. Frozen albumen, which 4 months go -was. about. 60 per-
cent of the price of frozen whole" ery., was selling din late July at about
the same price per pound as frozene whole egg. At this: level, albumen
was priced higher th-. .a year earlier, but yolk and whole egg were
still somewhat cheaper than in July 1951. Comparable 1951 and 1952
prices are shown in Table 2. Through July, the prices of separated
yolk end albumien brought a considerable premium over the price of a
comparable quantity of whole egg.


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-5-




J(LY-AUG. 1952
Table 2.- Prices


- 6 -


of frozen egg products at wholesale in He;.: York City,
per pound, 19,11 to date ,


-- -- -. .- -- -
o 0 0 S i~r~ce ~
* 0 5


t frozen
Year : whole


iFrozen :
yolk :



32,6
39,24
454
46o8
46.4
46.0
49.5

53,3


Frozen
albumen : Albumen Albumen
to yolk to whole
ents Percen-nt Percent

164 kh4 65
21,3 54 76
Zh42 53 75
22.3 -48 72
23.6 51 76
21,.8 47 73
28.3 57 82
34.7 79 97
29,C 55 79


1950
1951
Jano.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
KaMy
June
July
Aug.


1952
Jan,
Feb.
Mar :
Apr.
Hay :
June :
July 5/:
4-"
11 :
18
25


28.7
36 .1
1/34.7
- 34o6
35.8
36,3
38.1
36. L
36.4
36,-4

2/33.0
3/29.0
- 28.2
28.8
29.3
30.7

31.2
31.4
33,2
33.2


53oO
59.4
5500
55.5
56.9
56.3
61.1
61.7
61.4
61.0


60.2

5o1.2
52.4

50.6

50.2
50,8
51.i
51i 5


15.2
25.1
22.3
22.8
25.5
.6
25.2

24.8


2/25.0
3/20, 2
- 17,4
17.6
1924
22.7

6/28.7
'T/31,6

" 33. '


76
70
62
61
66
7h

92
:01
102
101


I/ Fresh i acl
*/ Spring pack.
3/ Current pack.
/ Light color.
AverS.-s for weeks ending on specified dates.
E/ Carlots not quoted. Prices given arefor L,C,L, Price ratios may accordingly
slightly overstate value of albumen relative to yolk and rolel.


1941
1942
1943
194.4
1945 :
1946
1947 :
1949
1949 :


Cent's

22~,
23 1
32Z4
31 1;
31J.4
29.8
34,6

37.0





FES-160 -
7 -
Ta-Z.e 3.- Frozen eagg Prices of .vAlk, albi aen, and mixed whole e'*.
New York City; awid val:,-s of the y'.ld from ] case of
shell eggs, by outhes, Januar.y 1951 to dat;

a n


*: on ." a, : C.- L "- Frozen whole ;Grea+or value
SC'.ibiued egg :of .-pa.-tcd
Y,.k Albumen value _____ c,-,o onents
Month : Value Value of 17.36 ; ; Value ;oi 1 ceae of
:Price: of :Price: of pomunea yolk'Price: of t eggs over


: per 17,36 per ; 21.36
pounds pounds ;pounu- pounds :


Cents Dol.


: : i/
:Cents Dol.


and 21.3b : per : 38.72
po'mds *pound: pounds
albumen I/: b I
Dol. ;.ents Dol.



14.4 4 ..7 13.44
14.50 3L.6 13.40
S5-35 35 .8 13.86
15.31 36.3 14.06
16.29 38.1 14.75
16.C9 36.8 14.25
1.5.91 36.4 14.09
15.89 36.4 14.09
15.75 36.5 i4.13
16.05 36.5 14.13
16.14 35.5 13 75
16.62 35.5 13.75



15.79 33.0 12.78
13-.15 29.0 11.23
12.61 28.2 10.92
12.86 28.8 11.15
13,3.3 29.3 11.34
13.63 30.7 11.89

14.84 31.2 12.08
15.57 31.4 12.16
36.14 33.2 12.86
16.10 33.2 12.86


------- ---- N --- -- --- --
1/ These quantities are the average yield from 1 case of shell eggs in spring-
time breaktung operations.
:../ Average for weeks ending on specified dates.
-/ Carlots not quoted. Prices given are for L.C.L.


1951
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.


1952
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
4
11
3.8
25


55.0
.5.5
56.9
96 .8
61-I
61.7
61.4
61.o
60.5
60.6
61.0o
61.4



6o.2
50.9
51 ,2
52.4
51.8
50.6

50.2
50.8
51,5
51.5


9-55
9.63
9.88
9.ED
10.61
10,71
10.66
10,59
10.5r
10.52
10.59
10.66



10.45
8.84
8.89
Q0.10
8.99
8.78

8.71
8.82
8.94
8.94


21,5
22.8
25.6
25 5
.26.6
25.2
24.6
24.8
24.6
25.9
26.0
27.9



25.0
20.2
17-4
17,6
19.4
22.7

3/28.7
3/31.6
3/33 .7


4.59
4.87
5.47
5.4?
5.68
5.38
5.25
5.30
...25
5.53
5.55
.96



5.34
4.31
3.72
3-.76
4.14
4.85

6.13
6.75
7.20
7.16


: equivalent
:of vhobs egg

Dol.



.70
I.?0
1.49
1.25

1.84
1.82
1.80
1.62
1.92
2.39
2.87



3.01
1.92
1.69
1.71
1.79
1.74

2.76

3.28
3.24





JULY-AUGUST 1952


-8-


Table 4.- Eggs: Parity prices and fatcors .5nvolvei in parity price comoutations,
by months, January 1951 to date w_.th seas na'l !.justm~:-it factors t.o June 1953.
(.-. ( ) (5) ( )
:j S average Reportec farm- -ice
SL-idex of Par-by: Se5-'sna,. farm price :
Month :prices paid .ri're Edjnstment per dozen As a percent-
and b: farrz.? per f ctor Leoual to 10- Per dozen : age of parity
year :(1.9)0- i4='.1 dozen :percent of .
2 : 2. : parity 3'
Cents' Perceint- Cents Cents Percent
1951
Jan. 266 51.5 101 52.0 42.6 82
Feb. 268 51.8 89 46.1 41.4 90
Iar. 271 52.5 8? 45.7 43.7 96
Apr. 272 52.6 87 45.8 43.2 94
May 273 52.8 8? 45.9 45 2 98
June 274 53.0 9) 47.7 44.7 9
July 273 52.8 97 51.2 46.6 91
Aug. 273 52.8 103 .54.4 49.6 91
Sept. 273 52.8 112 59-. 55.0 93
Oct. 274 53.0 118 62.5 55.6 89
Nov. 275 53.2 117 62.2 56.5 91
Dec. 276 53.4 116 61.9 51.1 83
1952
Jan. 277 50.7 99 50.2 40.5 81
Feb.: 278 50.8 87 44.2 34.5 78
Mar. 277 50.7 87 44.1 33.9 77
Apr. 277 50.7 8? 44.1 35.2 80
May 4/ 278 50.7 87 44.1 34.2 78
June 4/ 278 50.7 90 45.6 35.7 78
July 277 50.7 97 45.6 43.3 88
Aug. 103
Sept. 112
Oct. 117
Nov. 117
Dec. 117
1953
Jan. 96
Feb. 87
Mar. 87
Apr. 87
Hay 89
June 91
1r Through 1952, the appropriate index is that of prices paid, including in-
terest and taxes. In 19'?, the moder:-ized parity computation is likely to
supereede the present transitional parity for eggs and a; that time the ap-
propriate index will be- that of prices paid including int rest, taxes, and wage
rates. 2/ In 1951, Ir.dex of Prices Paid times Base Price (21.5 cents per dozen)
divided by 100 minus 10 percent on account of transition. parity. In 1952,
same formula except minus 15 percent on accoun- of an add .tional year trans-
piring in the transitional parity sequence. Ih 1953, tra isitional parity for
eggs is likely to be superseded by modernized parity, whi ;h will have a different
base price. 3/ Column (2) X column (3). A/ Revised.







Rate of lay Down on July 1;
Four Percent Below 195 ~

Hot weather over most of the United States sharply reduced the late-
June rate of lay per 100 layers. Coupled with a substantial reduction in
the number of layers on hand, this resulted in a June egg production of
14.0 million cases, 16 percent less than a month earlier. Compared with
a year earlier output was down 1 percent-,

The monthly output is computed on the basis of the average of
reports for the beginning and end of the month. The report for July 1,
representative of the end of June, showed a rate of lay h percent lower
than a year earlier, and a number of layers 1 percent ab6ve last Julj 1.
(At the beginning of June the rate of lay had been 1 percent belov a
year earlier, and the number of layers 2 percent above.)

In 1949, the other most recent year when the June rate-of-lay -was
below the preceding June, the rate remained below a year earlier in July
and August. For each September since 1946, however, the rate of lay has
been above the same month of the year before; it has been above the pre-
ceding October in every year since 1942.

During June, the number of birds in laying flocks was reduced
18.4 million, compared with 13,7 million in June 1951. Until June, the
culling rate had not been sharply different from the year before. The
number of layers on June 1 were 75.1 percent of the January 1 potential
layers, while in 1951 the June 1 number was 75.8 percent of the January I
figure.

To June 1, culling was not ahead of last year, despite the low egg
prices. The inducement to culling that would ordinarily be expected from
low egg prices was probably offset by the facts that egg production was at
a high rate, and fowl prices were low. During June, as rate of lay declined,
many farmers evidently decided to sell hens. With the rise in egg prices
since June 1, however, farmers may cull fever birds. If this happens, the
decline in total monthly egg output from a year earlier may be lessened
even before the early-hatched pullets are added to laying flocks.

Shell Eg Storage Profitable:
Stocks larger than Last Year

On July 1, 3.3 million cases of shell eggs were in cold storage in
the U. S. This is very likely to be the first-of-month peak for this year.
In the 35 cities which report weekly, there have beeh net out-movements
from storage since the week ending June 28.

While July 1 holdings of shell eggs were 909 thousand.pcases larger
. than last year's small holdings, and 1,043 thousand cases more than in
S 1949, they were otherwise the lowest since records were.bpgun,,.Not all


PES-160


- 9 -




JULY-AUGUST 1952


of the July 1 stocks were available for commercial use, since some were
Government-owned, and others were earmarked for later delivery to the
Department of Agriculture.

Table 5.- July 1 storage holdings of shell eggs, 1951 and 1952

Item 1951 : 1952
Thousand cases Thousand cases

Total ......................... 2,427 3,333
Government owned ................ 298 206
Contracted for later delivery
to U.S.D.A. ...... .......... --226


Prices for eggs in early July made withdrawals quite profitable, since
the holdings had been accumulated at a much lower price level. Even
stores who had hedged their holdings benefited. from the 17 cent rise
in the Chicago price for extras from June 1 to July 15, since futures in
the same period rose only about 6 cents. Storage operations which had been
closed by mid-July were generally very profitable. The net in-movement of
shell eggs in June, 149 thousand cases was, by coincidence, the same as the
149 thousand cases bought in June by the Department of Agriculture under its
surplus removal program. Contracts let in June under this program provided
that the eggs must be stored before July 1 for later delivery to the Govern-
ment. Assuming that no vendors had made their June sales to the Government
from eggs already in storage by June 1, it seems that net commercial in-
movement of shell eggs in June may have been nil.

Table 6.- Shell eggs: Purchases by U. S. D. A. under surplus removal program,
May and June, 1952

Date of : Delivery date
purchase _
week Sept. 2 Oct. 1 : Nov. 1 Dec. 1 Total
ending :: : total
Cases Cases Cases Cases Cases Cases

May 3 ............ -- -- -

May 10 ............ 6,000 600 --- 6,600 6,600

May 17 ............: 10,9140 5,700 -- --- 16,640 23,a40

May 24 ............: 27,450 15,500 1,200 --- 44,150 67,390

May 31 ............: 7,920 2,460 --- --- 10,380 77,770

June 7 ............: 6,692 15,360 --- --- 22,052 99,822

June 14 *..........: 11,700 6,360 --- --- 18,060 117,882

June 21 ...........: 33,497 16,800 3,840 --- 54,137 172,019

June '28 ...........: 20,940 20,540 11,960 1,000 54,440 226,459


63,320 17,000


T


- ,. .^ _- ^ .


1,000 226,459


-10 -


Total


! 125.119







Holdings of frozen egg, at 166 million pounds on July 1, were 24 mil-
lion pounds smaller than a year earlier. By mid-July, weekly in-movements
in 35 markets had been reduced to a very low rate, and it is possible that
the August 1 holdingswill be little if any higher than the July 1 figure.
In 4 of the past 7 years, peak first-of-month holdings have come at the
beginning of July; the remainder have been on the first of August. Before
1945, the peak was invariably August 1.

Since March, 1952 production of frozen egg has been below 1951.
However, the January 1 stocks were 20 million pounds -greater this year
than last which kept 1952 stocks above 1951 levels for the first 5 months
of the year. Since the beginning of June, however, 1952 stocks of frozen
egg have lagged behind a year earlier.

On July 1, combined stocks of shell and frozen egg (shell egg equiva-
lent) were 104 percent of a year earlier.

Dried Eggs Sold

On June 19 the Commodity Credit Corporation announced the sale of
its entire remaining stocks of dried egg. The quantity of 4 1/2 million
pounds was sold for export, at prices ranging from 20 to 38 cents per pound.
The only egg stocks now owned by or under contract to the Production and
Marketing Administration are the 226,459 cases of shell eggs scheduled for
delivery in September through December.

7 Percent Fegg Chickene Raised:
Smaller Decrease Seen for 120 Layers

Seven percent fewer chickens are being raised for laying flock re-
placement in 1952 than were raised in 1951. The preliminary estimate
shows that 617 million chickens are being raised this year against 663 mil-
lion last year.

The greatest percentage reductions are occurring in the West North
Central, South Central and East North Central Regions where the respective
declines are 12,8, and 7 percent. The cut In the East and West North Cen-
tral Regions is about 30 million birds, 65 percent of the net reduction
for the U. S. No regions show increases, although the estimated decline
for the North Atlantic States is only 1 percent, and, within that region,
the 6 New England States and New Jersey indicate increases, which are more
than offset by decreases in Pennsylvania and New York.

In 1952, the reduction from the year before in chickens raised
occurred in placements from the late-season hatch. The number of young
chickens on farms April 1, 1952 was 9 percent larger than on the same date
of 1951. This early season increase is likely to be reflected in a larger
number of birds laying about October. Because of the reduced late hatch,
however, the number of potential layers at the end of the year is likely
to be below January 1, 1952.


PES-160


- 11 -





JULY-AIUGTT 1952


The percentage reduction in layers, however, Is not likely .to be as
great as the reduction in chickens raised. First of all, about a third
of the potential layers are hens which are not affected by the number of
chickens raised. Then, the standards by which pullets are. Judged are
flexible, and evidently more lenient in the years when fewer pullets are
available for housing as layers. Finally, there is a long term trend,
illustrated on the cover chart, toward a larger number of pullet layers
retained per 100 chickens raised.

If past trends, based on relationships shown in tables 7 and 8, are
borne out, the January 1 flock of potential layers is likely to be about
3 to 5 percent smaller than in 1952. So far as 1953 egg production is
concerned, as much as half of this deficiency in numbers of potential layers
may be offset by a higher rate of lay.

Table 7.- Potential layers, January 1, 1931 to date

Potential layers on farms, January 1 Hens as a percentage of

Year .Pullets : Total : Pullets
Hens _____ __: Total potential : previous
SLaying : ye : layers : January 1
________ _________: : laying ______ :
Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous.

1931 : 158,214 197,581 45,981 401,776 39.4 ---
1932 : 156,178 185,419 44,229 385,826 40.5 64.1
1933 : 154,037 192,011 44,695 390,743 39.4 67.1
1934 : 146,997 196,004 42,340 385,341 38.1 62.1
1935 : 138,609 171,903 39,895 350,407 39.6 58.2
1936 : 136,187 186,093 40,339 362,619 37.6 64.3
1937 : 130,445 209,815 39,49 94 379,754 34.3 57.6
1938 : 137,958 173,130 41,876 352,964 39.1 55.3
1939 134,331 194,106 47,704 376,141 35.7 62.5
1940 : 139,079 202,483 51,093 392,655 35.4 57.5
1941 : .,. 141,430 192,296 47,589 381,315 37.1 55.8
1942. 150,170 Zo0,842 56,899 427,911 35.1 62.6
1943 : 170,337 255,321 63,301 488,959 34.8 61.3
1944 : 174,000 282,183 67,404 523,587 33.2 54.6
1945 : 172,426 254,498 46,956 473,880 36.4 49.3
1946 : 150,712 269,303 52,805 472,820 31-9 50.0
1947 : 150,490 243,931 37,025 431,446 34.9 46.7
1948 139,587 242,785 35,198 417,570 33.4 49.7
1949 : 141,044 227,145 31,191 399,380 35.3 50.7

1950 137,014 254,557 '32,M02 423,773 32.3 53.0
1951 : 146,340 233,717 30,143 410,200 35.7 51.0
1952 : 144,312 246,957 31,956 423,225 34.1 54.7


-12-t







Table 8.- Chickens raised and pullets on farms, 1930 to date.
(Including data f,-r cover cha..*t)

: Chickens raised Bullets on farms J'an following% -p.1ets Jan. I
Lculleta J er a
aPercentage :' ; oal following, per
SNumber of previous: Laying ot Prna 00 chickens
: yea laying : Number :of previous: rased
- year rai sed


Mil.

777.0
709.4
735.5
750.1
644.4
658.3
715.0
601.1
650.7
696.7

633.7
7L45 .0
844.3
,001.4
832.1
890.4
737.6
719.4
615.1
705.1


1950 : 635
1951 : 663
192 1/ 617
I/ Preliminary


Percent

91
103
102
86
102
109
84
108
107

91
118
113
119
83
107
83
98
86
115


.1
.5
.2


90
104
93


Mil.
197.6
185.4
192.0
196.0
171.9
186 .1
209.3
173.1
194.1
202.5

192.3
220.8
255.3
282.2
254.5
269.3
244.0
242.8
227.1
254.6


Mil.
46.0o
44.2
44 7
42.3
39.9
40.3
39.5
41.9
47.7
51.1

47.6
56.9
63.3
67.4
47.0
52.8
37.0
35.2
31.2
32.2


S yearc :
Mil. Percent


243.6
229.6
236.7
238.3
211.8
226.4
249.3
215.0
241.8
253.6

239.9
277.7
318.6
349.6
301.5
.322.1
281.0
278.0
258.3
286.8


233.7 30.2 263.9
247.0 31.9 278.9


94
103
101
89
107
110
86
112
105

95
116
115
110
86
107
87
99
93
111

92
1o6


Number

31.4
32,4
32,2
31.8
32.9
34.4
3 .9
35.8
37.2
36.4

37-9
37 o3
37.7
34.9
36.2
36.2
38.1
38.6
42.0
40.7


41.6
41.8


Table 9.-


Composition of baby chick purchases by farmers (excluding those
for specialized broilers), available data 1943 to date


Year Straight : Pullet : Cockerel
..... : run : chicks : chicks
Percent Percent Percent

1943 77 17 5
1944 75 20 5
1945 77 18 5
1946 73 22 4
1947 70 26 4
1948 66 30 4
1949 65 31 4

1950 63 32 5
1951 62 .33 5
1952 l/ : 6 __ 34 __ 4
SIntended composition of purchased, as reported in February .


1930 :
1931 :
1932 :
1933 :
1934 :
1935 :
1936 :
1937 :
1938 "
1939


1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949


. PES-160


- 13 -




JULY-AUGUST 19592


Poultry Prices Show Mixed Trends;
Storage Stocks Larg.e

Poultry price trends were mixed for several weeks preceding mid-
SJuly. Bro'ler prices, after dipping to varylow levels in early May, rose
to about the highest levei of the 7ear at mid-July. In Virginia and
California, prices of young small turkeys--commonly called turkey fryers--
were the lovast of the year to date, selling at under 30 cents per pound.
Farmers: prices for chickens were also low. For example, prices for hbans
in Icwa were 16-i8 cents per pound.

Marketings of broilers are now considerably below the 1952 peak.
Further declines will occur since the weekly rate of broiler placements
has been decreasing. Reduced supplies of broilers in the next few months
will to some extent be offset by seasonally-ncoreasing supplies of farm-
produced chickens and turkeys, and by the relatively large storage stocks
of poultry.

July 1 or August 1 is the usual seasonal low point for storage
holdings of chicken. On July 1 this year, holdings of "all poultry ex-
clusive of turkeys and ducks" were 108 million pounds, contrasted with
66 million last year, on average of 54 million pounds in the 3 pre-
ceding years, and. an average of 85 million pounds in 1944-47 when meat
shortages encouraged greater holdings of poultrj. The high present level
of storage holdings will tend to discourage..a large not accumulation of
chicken meet in storage this year, and supplies for current consumption
would accordingly be increased. On the other hand, current low prices
for many types of poultry will encourage speculative storage.

Somewhat the same seasonal storage pattern exists with respect
to turkeys, but the low point of storage holdings usually comes a little
later in the year, about September 1. July 1 stocks this year were 56 mil-
lion pounds. compared with a 1948-50 average of 40 million for the same
date, and 39 million pounds for July 1, 1951. The turkey trade is planning
extensive promotions to reduce the storage holdings before heavy marketing
of the large crop begin.


Table 10.- Broilers: Average weekly rate of placements,
11 specialized areas, by months, 1951 and 1952

Month 1951 1952 Month 1951 1952
Thous. Thous. : : Thous.. : Thous.

January : 9,275 : 11,790 : July : 11,607 : 1A0,176

February 11,217 : 13,872 : August : 8,036

March : 11,503 : 13,484 : September 9,079

April : 12,215 : 12,046 : October : 8,819

May : 12,138 : 11,277 : November : 9,891

June : 11,607 : 11,249 : December : 10,603 :

17 4 weeks.


- i -





PES-160


- 15 -


Table 11.- Chickens and turkeys: Monthly cold storage holdings and
net movements, January 1951 to date



: 1951 : 1952
:


Holdings at
beg!nnngC of
month

Thous. youndc


lTet HoldlnCs
movement -.t beGinrni.c
S of' mon bh


Thous. Pounds Thcvs, pound:;


I.ot
r.o I/mE-rnt


Tncus. -'oulds


a. ChlcI-ens 1/


January
February
March

M.?y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December


2/ 163,034
160,944
136,075
109. 73
C4, 91
73,193
3/ 66,:.91
67,097
e. ,'-r *,
110a,611
163,4662
2/ 1lC9762


b. Turl:eye


January
February
March
Ar1il
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December


310,110
2/ 116,k.96
101,466
8o,5oc
59,896
47,941+
31,902
29. .12
3/ 24,290
41,60o
83,09
109,254


6,736
-15,430
-20,966
-20,604
-11,940,
-3,966
-9,170
-4,983
16,779
41,490
26,156
-2,4 0


3-06,76,S
2/ 11.6,352
106,544
93.361
72,461
63,3V8
56,330


if Total poultry excluding turkeys end ducks.
UV Season peak
3/ Se-son low.


Month


317, 14
177,377
1-9,795
136,799
119. 293
1 5,714
LOC, 195


-.2,090
-24, F69
-26,102
-25, 02'
-1i,698
-6,702
606
16, 59
26,925
52,g51
26,300
-2,2


-9,757
-17,582
-2,996
-'7,506
-3,579
-7,539


9.586
-9,108
-13,183
-20,900
-9,1.3
-6,998


_ _~. __ -^I ~--. --... I-





.U. S Department of Agriculture
Washington, D. 0.

OFFICIAL BUSINESS


Penalty for prival
payment of p(


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08903 5843


BAE-PES- "
Permit No. 1001


I::: ..:ITY OF FL1RITDA
LI:SRARY
. :^ZrNTS DEPT.
.5-16-49
FNS-6 GAINESVILLE, FLA.


Prospect for Larger Feed Supolies

Feed crop prospects at the beginning of July were good, and a
corn crop almost 15 percent larger than a year ago.Vas indicated. Al-
though the large corn crop in prospect and the reduced hog population
indicate lower corn prices after harvest, the extent of the decline
will be limited by the $1.60 per bushel (U. S. average basis) loan level
for corn i/, and the possibility that numbers of other classes of live-
stock will be expanded.

Supplier of feed concentrates per animal unit for 1952-53, on the
basis of current estimates, will be slightly larger than a year earlier.

-------------------- 0 ----------------

Egg prices in the Argentine in the first 6 months of 1952 reached
record levels, as much as 4 times as high as in 1951. The high point in
June was equivalent to 79-86 cents (U.S.)-at wholesale, and $1.15-$1.30
(U.S.) per dozen at retail. During the normal into-storage season late
in 1951 (during the Argentine spring) there was little storage activity
with wholesale prices then equivalent to 16 cents (U.S.) per dozen.
Foreign Crops and Markets
July 14, 1952 P. 43


1/ On a comparable basis, the U. P. average farm price in mid-July was
$1.73 per bushel.