Tobacco situation

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Material Information

Title:
Tobacco situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
United States -- World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Frequency:
four no. a year
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Tobacco industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
TS-1 (jAN. 1937) - TS-174 (Dec. 1980).
Numbering Peculiarities:
Issues for <March 1938>-1939 called also spring outlook issue.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Sept. issues for 1941-<1961> called also outlook issue for the next year; e.g. Sept. 1943 called 1944 outlook issue.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Issues TS-67-<TS-71> lack chronological designation.
Issuing Body:
Dec. 1980 issued by the Economics and Statistics Service, USDA.
Issuing Body:
Issued by: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, 1954-Mar. 1961; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, June 1961-Dec. 1977; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, 1978-<Dec. 1979>; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economics and Statistics Service, -Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Previously classed: A 36.94:, A 88.34/2:, and A 93.25:
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
"Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board."

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001233689
oclc - 04015633
notis - AFY4099
lccn - 78643654 //r81
issn - 0040-8344
sobekcm - AA00005303_00059
Classification:
lcc - HD9134 .A375
ddc - 338.1/7/3710973
System ID:
AA00005303:00064

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Tobacco outlook & situation

Full Text












TS -


;P~c ~'P' '' J/
r r


/ FQR RELEASE



\I aL. FE B. 6, A. M.
UJSg TION
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONO
UNITED STATES DEPARTM ENT OF AGRICULTURE

39 R JANUARY 1947



CIGAR CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES ACCORDING TO
RETAIL PRICE RANGE, 1937-41 AVERAGE, AND 1942-46
BILLIONS
15 1 cents and over
81 cents-150 cents
80O cents anrd under

























1937-41 : 1235 1234 113
AV 1942 1943 1944 1945' 1946 1:
CONSUbPHiON A3 INDicATED S Y TA I PdlO Ih tfHORAWALj OF LARGE CIGAriS 5 6 PRICE CLA5553L~
IN INITERNAL REILENUF REPORTS
'OQUAArERLI. DATAr FOR 19-as AND r946 .401UiSTE~D 70 ANNU4rL RATE 'PARTLY ES`TIMATEO


u 5.DEFARTMENT CFi AGR~ICULTRE


rrEC. dE!B+ Biinstab OF.IsircutiuiL ErrNOMICf


Cigar consumPtion in the United States (excluding armed services overseas)
averaged a little over 51 billion 1937-41, increased to more than 6 billion in 1942 and
then decreased during the mid-war years when supplies were inadequate to satisfy both
civilian and armed force demands. Since V-J day the consumption has been rising, sus-
tained by high employment and income levels. The retail price pattern of cigars has
changed strikingly. In the pre-war years close to 90 percent of all cigars consumed
sold-for 5 cents or less. In the 4th quarter of 1946 about 38 percent sold for 8 cents
or less compared to 60 percent in that price range in the 4th quarter of 1945.


TH E











1945 =


Gset.r : Gt. : Nov. I Dec. t



42.2 44.1 46.0 44.3 s
-- -45.3 :
-- -28.9 :
24.1 24.2 :


33.2 33.4 33.4 33.4 :
32.3 32.4 32.4 32.4 :
154 15.5 15.5 15.5 :
12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 a

113 114 114 114 :
145 th$ 146 146 :


263031,340 25,406 16,o61 :
27 517 472 368 :
24 27 23 12 :
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.0 :

.94,815 226.156 251.56 267.622 :
3,657 4.174 4,64 5,oth a
207 234 25 270 :
33 37 4 :

802 1,269 1,348 1,466 :

60,W41 61,710 63,058 64,525 I
1551256 287,866 314,62o 332,147 :



1,483 :
759 :
52 :


14) :
102 .:
18


20.187 35,047 25.490 22,621 i
1,478 1,86 1,138 1,807 :
40 16 139 768 :
91563 5,670 2,223- 4.270 *
825 1.324 709 783 :
71 1,308 621 539 :
38,193 45.536 30,6'-19 30,ss9:


90,064 125.111 150,601 173,222 :
9,437 &/1,863 3,ool 4,soa :
2,007 2,113 2.252 3,020 :
631851 _/65,670 7r983 12,163 :
6,278 A/1.324 2,033 2,816 :
3.455 1.30s 1,929 2,468 :

229 231 236 234 :


171 164 167 161 :

96.9 96.2 qS,7 96,) :


r het data
1946lf ravdailbl
:ae percent
: r r r ofas
Sept. : Oat. : Nov. t Seed year
a : I earlier


: Unit or :
Itas : base a
: period :
: a
: :


II All tynes excese-t flue-cured. 11-14 sad ~uley, 31. 2/ FLue-cared tyner, 11-14 and Barity tyner 31. ~ Includes
Purerto Rico. I/ CStcks for October 1, 10946 are preliminary. i/ Includes a small amount of Perigue. Beginning of
next erop year. / Unadjusted.


~


-2-


STATISTICAL SWIMARY


Prices received by farmers:
at rructions rurrently opent


Cents
per


48.2




3s.5
37.3
17.8
14.3




26,865
46
19
3.1

238.305
4,294
155
29

1,9 4

22.364
260,669













50,036
2, 9
302
1.979


56,o61


loo, 376
35.272
5,055
47,612
13,122
6.,756

247


50.8 43.6


-23.6


Xlue-curea : pound :
Bur'ley *
Fire-Eured : :
Dark air-cured a :

Parity Prices : Cents per
]Plue-ceured : ound :
Burlely : :
Fire-cured : :
Dark air-curea : :

Indez of Prices Paid :1933F10119-28-100 1:


Tax-paid withdravale, :
Cigarettes, small 1/ : Mllion :
Cigars, large 3Z/ *
Chewing and Smoking : l.1 :
sanuf: :
Accumulated since Jau.1:
Cigarettes, small 21 : illion ::
Cigars, large 1/ : :
Chewing and Smoking :Ml.b. :
snute : :


40.8

23.0


39.8 41.o 41.2 123
38.6 39.7 4o.o 123
18.5 19).o 19.2 124
14.2 15.3 15.4 124

36 140 1 a
1 179 120 123


32,78
594
22
3.8


27,696 22,695
555 471
19~ 14
3.3 3.2


Million :

:

Million:
pounds a

a :
:

:
I :


MIOnthly :
Thousand :




pounded :
:

:
* : 9lo

* : 3910

Ho :


1






2


271,os3 298.779 321.474
4,sas 5. 43 5.914
177 197 211
33 36a4

2.561 3.165

24.925 28,090
296.008 326,869



1.495
853
105
60


17


Cigarettes, tax-free :
Accumulated since Jan.1:
Taz-free :
Tax-p~aid plus tax-free :

Stocks beginning of :
quarter s/(farm-sales :
eight)
Plue-cured
Barley
Maryland
F1re-cured
D~ark air-cured :
Cigar, filler
Cigar, binder :
Cigar, wrapper :
Arnorte 87ar-Sal9s Wt.) !
Flue-cured :
Burley :
Maryland :
Pire-cured :
DaBrk air-cured :
Cigar :
Total q/ :
Aceurmulated since:
beginning of crop year :
Flue-cured :
hurley :
Marylana :
aire-curea :
D~ark air-cured :
Cigar :

Total Income Payments ::

Index of Industrial :
Production L/
Percent labor Fbrce :
Itaplayed :


513399r279
4,18 2,898
671,114
3,al 2,729
561 482
359 41ff
59.817 107,014


153.729 251,aos
/,1 7,os2
5.122 6.236
}6 3.214 5,943
}6 561 1,043
359 773

254 259


184 184 182 176 log


96-7 96-7 96:4


96.5





THE T 0 ACCO SITUATI 0N


Approved b~y ''! Ou:look~ and Si'-u--tion Board, January 28, 1987

SLSP~IIi'

The- pr~oitezi3!on~ a ~n onsumplion of1 -l-icrettes and cigars duiring tho calecnda~r
,Ear 1046: wire :bo~ve; lr;.7ent yeara1, re~flectin_ high~ levels of econromic- act~ivity;
-nd culst...ined consumair purchalsing power, Product:ion, and consumption -re expecrted.
to crntinue. F at high'r lenals during the firzt b If' of 1957,J Ccnaumption for the year21
prob "oly will ecual maint*-;ned near cu~rrlent l~;evels

Consumntion of cligarettce in 1966 wze Ft a record r te and -abouf ?21
billion (tax-a-id wichdrawl s). 1 were consumers! ar.meeti~cally Productioin of
around ?57 billlijl cigart7Lstes; (taxv-free~ plus tar-,paid. withdrzw--ls) ws thle
highest .nntasl cultpu.t zv,r .-nieved and xCCeeded 1964 prorduction about 6~ per-
cent, Prices adv-ance? moler-ltely dur'ingF the .--2-.i

Consumption of '7ig:3_ l:urin,3 1FI!-6, .cz'vi'.ny? to in~dicatedd t-ix-ncid with-
dr~val, ws 5? bllin, he ighst inc 13-.Plicr;s adv-an~cd during the
year, end both tho pl~l\roportin anrd number of ~;Cig rs retailing for more th-an 8
cents incl~s~ria..

Smo;-ing7 '._bacco nrcin-'lon declined :Morply durin3 the first half of 1946
after whiuca iv. Icvallr1 thie comprabl- period7 i'n 2196"'. Plroductionn .-ndi 1naumption in lak-i-' probably will
be! abouC, the r t asL. in 198 6.i~ If ecoI~nomi 3ctlivity dllclines consumption of
smoking to,-.cco woruld '._:ni ro incre-as

Chevinlg .abscro ord.c udi,7Fon for thle 1966t~ January1 to IOrctber pEriod. was
11 percent i'r.lew :he sme me~n~lhs in 1 85. Sc'irap ena fins-cutr cheviwng tob-cco
decclined the- loo3- fromn 1-.2> ;;iea !d p.lugi, ani Lwis1 fill oCff ithe most.
Producttionr .:nd! ;:roniup; t n of~ chew-in t.oba~cco vlll pei-rhpe react, io economic
chenge abotr\+ '.ho4 same5 :as makOn.7 to^bT-CCO and if "high-,gesr" econonic. activity
is sucS-inred n? ,7re:'- E--u;-.. js expected in 1 6 ,

Snuff consu=lmP'ien in me; calndr ;;el.;.S ar lakE w"9 1 pe-lrcenti bel1ow theC 1?45
record and prod~ucFTon? ?nd,, consumptio~l n -luring 1957l Clre texp-ctedl to be :Ibout rche
sam~ e las L6,

Thr- 1?!; cro~p of fll:-credL~~ tabac,- o war? t.o 1:rg'LEst everr; prodiu-ced and
supplice for i.-bo I;4b-hr mo~rl-Ptn. ?'Far .Ir hifgher then for ;hF pr v~io~us yer..
The cl~rop was sold. aT on~ ..vealCe ofl "bot01: IES cents per po~und nosellyr ,en percent
arbovE last sEa:son. Cr -_~r.:.1-r Ir;'E ci.=ur -tte conufctLu'r'e and s'tronE: expiort~s
will resul; in :.- Cto c., Ei." .pwa3r.EncL in 1 66E-h7 exce-di:ng~ that of 13]-r-%6. A
10l prrce~nt upwrdmr revision in th-e 1967r' n".-lonel anote for fllecu~rid was announcedd
after' discussions with grolwers in rssembe~r.

Burley~; supplies *re o' n ver: high leval and the third successive lar-ge
crop is being .markketed. P-icca in contrast to last season. hlave remar~ined fairly
sta~7ble~--ave~ragi;ng: 4'0 cents, per pound for sales through Jcnuary 24. Although
total disappeanrafnce during 1966-47 'is expected .co exceed that of 1945-46,
the carry-over on Octobelir 1, 1347 will be largo. The announced 1947 marketing
quota is about 15 percentt below 1-66 production.
(For I~clease 5, A. M..





JANUARY 1947


-- 4


Fire-cured supplies for 1946-47 are above~last year because of the larger
crop produced ;in~ 19466, Prices of Tirgilni? fire-cured in lecember- 1 were_ above
last season, but January prices were below last year.. Prices of oithSTr types
of fire-cured for opening sales in mid-January were below~ a yFar ago. Dis-
appearance in the current year is expect~edto be' larger than lest, year. The
acreage goal for 1947 calls for 10 ~percent increase for fire-c~ured tobacco.

Dark_ air-ctrled~tobacco. supplies for 1946-47 are greater than la-st year and
prices for alli type's have been lower.~~ Export.s ~were fairly strong during the
past year but domestic consumption was lower. Total disappearances in 1346-47
will probably be smaller than in 1945-46. Acreazge allotments for ty:pes !5
and 36 in,1947 are 10 percent below 1946.

Domestic 'cigar fi'ller supplies are srilightly above laszt ye9r' -and cigar bindis
supplies were appreciably higher~ than the low point .of last year. Disappeara~ince
in 19346-47 is expected to be larger than 1945-46 because of thet anticipated
large cigar manufacture. Acreag~e goals call ~for 5 percent increased~ in Pennsy-
Ivania, Connecticut, and Wisconsin; and 15 percent increases in Ohlio, Massrlchusette
amid in the Kavana Seed area. of. New York and Pennsylvania.

Wrapper supplies-are.ab~out the same Bs last year.~ Disappeararne has been
higher than in the previous year. The ABcre-ge goal calls for a slight Increase
in-Connecticut Valley shade type 61.
(For Rolasse 5, A. M.)
PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF TOBACCO PP~ODUCTS

Cigarettes

The production of cigarettes in the calendatr years 1986 again si-t a new
rEcolrd as it has each calendar year~since 1932. Approxima~tely 350! billion
cigarettes were-manufactuirled in 1946, '6 percent more than in 1345 und 88 percent
above the 1937-41 average of.186.bllion. Domestic consumption as indicated
by tax-paid withdrawal was 321 billion ~while exports atnd trlx-free withdrawals
totaled approximattely ~30 billion, aboutu; 3 times the 1937-41 average. In 1965,
taxt-paid withdrawals totaled 2683 billion and exports plus tax.-free withdrawals
amounted to 64 billion. The Philippine Islands took 40 percent of 1966 exports.
If employment and income payrments are maintained at high levels, continuing high
cigarette production and consumption in 1947 are exp-cted. Cigarette prices
advanced moderately during 1946 but with no apparent affect on consumption.

Cigars

Cigar consumption i~n 1946 as indicated by tax-paid withdrovals for the
calenda~r year was 5.9 billion, the highiest since 1962. Conditions more favorable
to cigar factory; output he-lped make possible this re-lativelyr high consumption
level. Numbers of cigars within the vario~us Internal Re-venue Classes (according
to the prices at which intended to retail) changed during t~he war years and par-
t-icularly during the last half of 1966 after ceilings were removed from all
tobacco products. (See chart on cover). MIany of the popular brands which had
sold for 2 for 15 cents were increased to 3 cents and many of the higher priced
brands were also advanced. The groups selling for more than ;3 cents have expanded
considerably and during the last quarter comprised 62 percent of the- total
while those selling for.8 cents and below had decrezaed. If high employment
-tlrd -jicnco payments ars maintained, cigar pr.oduction in 1947 may exceed thlat of
1966; and cigar consumption probably will continue at currenti high rates.






TS-39-- -

I~Smoking Tobacco

SThe production of smoking tobacco declined very sharply'in 1966 from the
S1945 level. The output of smoking tobacco in the first ten months of 1466
was 41 percent below the samne period of 1965 and 48 percent below the average
i for the same period in 1937-4l. Thie downtrend appears to have reached its
Slowest point in t~he first quarter of' 19466 Each month from July to October,
showed an increase. The production for Oct~ober was3 11.7 mill-ion pounds compared
to the monthly average of 14.1 million pounds during 1345. Consumption of
manufactured toba-cco I-moking and chewing) indicated by-~tax-paid withdrawals
totaled about 211 million jounds in the calend--r ye~r 1946, or bout 22 percent
less than in ;315 '<) ;- Phen sou~?nomi activity: and Inco~me pay-msnts are at high
levels, smokinZ t;Jbacc=o c~onsump;ltion usual~jl;, recceies andl cigare-ttes and cigar
consumption increased. A' cone:r.liing high! inscom- levrel will tend to maintain
this pattern of ~cocawmption.~ Sine pipe-smo::ing is a cheaper form of tcbncco
consumiption, a d-cline in ccns;umo~r purchasing power would tend to bring about some
increases in. usage of smoking tcba-cco.

ChEwing Tobacco~

The 91,2 -million pound production of t-vist, fine-cut, plug and a-crap
chewing in tha first ten months of 1946 wha 11 percent below that period in
1945, but -bove; the 1:737-41 ave-rage- for the corr~esponding~ months. Plug and
twist were about- 15 percent below last year and very near their 1337-61 average
level, TWhille flne.-cut was only 6 percent lower than in the ;-ame period of 1945,
it was 23 percent below its 1937-41 nverage Scr-ip chewing manufacture in the
first ten month-s of 1946 fell 7 percent be-low the samel months of 196)5, but was
7 percent over the 193'i-41 average for those months. The production of plug,
tvist and scrap in October (last month for which data is --vailable) was larger
than in any other previous month in 19466 Production of chewing tobacco in 1347
may increase by a moderate amount for reasons similar to tholse mentioned under
smoking tobacco.. However, the persistent long-term dlownward trend will pro-
bably continue.

Snuff

Snuff consumption as indicated by tax-paid withdrawals, in the calendar
year 1946 vas about _39 million pounds or o percent below the record~high year
of 1945 but around 4 percent aboyc the 1937-4l~average. Although snuff has
shownr some response to wide swings of business activity, snuff consumption has
been relatively stable through many years, Production In 1947 is not expected
Tod be greatly different from 196$.

Flue-Cured, Types 11-14

Prices Average 10 Percent Above 1945 Season

The 19466crop of flue-cured tobacco set new records i~n several respects.
It was the largest crop in history and brought the highest average price of
record, The season ave~rage~ price for the 1946 crop was about 48 cents per pound,
about 10 percent higher than for. 19h) and more than 100O percent abovo the 1934-38
average. Ca-sh returns to growe-rs for the 1946 crop vere around 640 million
dollars compared with 507 million dollars in 1945. During 1941-45 producers
sales averaged 354 million dollars.





JANUARY 1947 6 -

A very strong demand for the 1946 crop of'f1ue-cured tobacco was sustained
until mid-November when some weakness occurred in the Old and Middile oelts and
prices decl-inedi, All markets in the Eastern North Caroli~na and -:he Old and
Middle belts recessed November 27 because of the uncertainty of fuel supplies
for redrying plants which resulted from the coal strike. Whken the coal st rik~e
ended,t~he holiday period was near and markfet remaiined closed until Jasnuar:, 2.
Prices during January did not recover to earlier season levels. Wh~ilP .arices
usually taper off toward the end of the marketing season, the declines which
occurred. this season were greater than usual.

For the crop as a whole, however, the strong export demand and the high
domestic usings for cigarette manufacture contributed to the favorable season
avera e price.

Supp-lies Altl2 Last Year:
Dis~attiearance at High Level

Total supplies for 1946-47 are 2,470 million p~ounds, .170 million pounds
or 7 percent above the ~preceding year, Stocks on July 1, 1946 were only about
21 milli'an pounds larger than the precedingg year but the record crop of 1,322
million pounds topped the 1945 rproduction by nearly 13 -3ercent.

It is currently estimated that total disange-rance of flue-cured tobacco
during 1946-47.will exceed 1945-46 by around 75 mlillion pounds,primairily because
of larger ex-,orts. In the marketing year ended June 30, 1946 d~isappa:? rance was
1152 million pounds. An estimated 666 million pounds were used domestically
and, an estimated h186 million pounds (farm-sales weight) were exports

Table 1.-Flue-cured tobacco': D~omestic suppnlies, di~sa:?pealrance, and
season average price, alversee 199~-38, annual 1939-46 1/


: Stocks : Total Dis yerance : A4verage
: tcs oa
Year : Production : July 1 :supply .year beginning : price
: July 1 : per poundl
!Million Miillion MIillion Million
:pounds pounds rounds pounds Cents
Average
1934-38 :. 741.o 844.9 1, 585.9 704r3 2?.9

1939 :1,170.9 946.3 2,117.2 707.5 1h.9
194o : 759.9 1,"09.7 2.169.6. 576.7 1.
1941 :649.6 1,592-9 2,242.5 783.0 24.1
1942 : 811.7 1,459.5 2,271.2 892.8 8.
1943 : 790.2 1,378.8 2,169.0 980.2 60.2
1944 :1,089.7 1,186.8 2,278,5 1,152.2 42.4
1198} 2] 1,173.5 1,126.3 2,299.8g 1,152.4 4j.7
11946 2} 1,322.2 1,147.4 2,469.6

1/ Fa~rn-sales weight.
2/ FPrl~iminary;.







Ts-39 -j

Domestic use of leaf has been at 9 high level1 because of large cigarette.
production \rhich in July-Decenber 1?46 was 4 uPrcent, above January-June -and 12
percent above July-Decenber 1945. In the 1966,C iy.-ear domestic consumption may
~Idecline slieh~tl, if cigarette c7nsiumption levels off or decreases because of
lower incomes and. emoiloyment. Flue-cured is the major e--ort ty-o~e and bioments
for the first five months Jul:y-;invember of the 1946-47 ma~rketing yJear were 2751
million -,ounds (form-sales weight).. This is about 66; percent -bove the same
period of the rceceding year. A cointinul~ati onT of thlis rate, together wjith expected
domestic disappearances, would result in cprr,-over toc'ks in the United Sta.tes
on Jul,; 1, 191?7, onlly lightly ab-ove July 196, such~ carr;,-over Ftock~s are.ome-
what low in relatipp to expeted cdemestic c7nsumaIon~~ n and exports if mp~derately
high level em.loylment is malintained and if j-vort ~outlet~s continue favorable.

National Mnr'-e t i ng .Rbuo ta RieviZed Unw~ard

TPhe likelihood of ,Trea.ter flue-cured learf reaulrem~ents was considered by
the Depiartlnent of Agriculture an~d discussed with t~he Prowiers i'n December. As a
result, the na~tinnal ouota f'or 1Si47 w rie Tvised u waidlO percentt, or from 1148
to 126) mnili~on pounds. This production do~uld tring~ tota eu np-~lies for 1987-l18
into better balance with pros ective reluirements. The outlook for ories i-s
generally favrorab'le. The avera -e loan Irate --hich is d'ete~r.?ned by~ thle inderr
of prices paid byi farnP1rs is e:xpected to be higher than last .;-ear.

EUE~LEY, T'rPE j1

Average P~rices Above Last Iea~r;
High Procjortion of Red Leaf

Eurley mar'retings bl;?-an in ourly; Decemb;I r d1rinS th~e coal strike and
early sellers jammed the aucti7ns with toba~cco. Oonenin :Irices were substantially
below earlyl season prices of th-e ;-rel.eding y.ear. Dur~ing11 the second week~ of
sales, following term'nation of the coal strike, ?rices improved lightly. In
the :?re-holida.7 period, gross sales wrere 23~1 mnilion I:o;unds at an average of
40.8 cents per pound, or about 10 i recent belou aricoe at~ the same period a
year earl.ier. Contrasting with~ Inst seas.on,prices for sales in the first three
weeks of Jainuaryr, averaged 4. cent per ound or 3.9) cents higher than the
correspondingly~ avrae orJnury19 Ciparette rgrades have been in strong
demand. Prices for grades of"red leaf" have been below last season, Loan rates
were based on 33.6 cents per pound--90 percent of the ap licable marity price
for burleyr uithn differentials for individual t~rades. BLurley, as ociations in
the pre-Chrlistnas sales ieriod. received under loan about twenrty--five ?Dercent
of the deliveries. Since enrly January. this p~roijortion hacs dropped to about
twenty Ij~rcent of deliveries.




JA11UcTil 197~ 8 -

2 .11i _.-Eurlcy toacco:: Dojmestic su:,plia=, di'.lm.~~-._earae and



: tocks: otl Di an.: -'ralnce : Averace
Iyrar : Produii'~lCt~i n OcI~t. : supy : ;, car 1.0 inning g : srice
: Oct 1 Dr 7nund
1-ii o 1 1n I-il io l-illionr i-fiillion
: ou.nds po;n ov~ Iosmdr pound. Cents


194-,8: r287.2 700.9, ?88.1 31L.5 2'.2

193 --0.4 601 ,0795 317.2 17.3
199 : 77.3tG-.;, 1,3?695 16.2
1'61 : .879. 1,l %.9 3.629.2

1943 : .9.868.n ~ 1,07. 46.2 45.6
1966 : .91.5 4c. 1j2. 8.7 4h.o
1q4F'i. : F76.9 759 a 1,335.9 13;1. 39.4
1946 2/ : .3.5 E53.3 1. 33.8



SunrJiEs -!t Eccord Level:
D~il-:1 Dear : nc~ Cl"ose to L.;
Totral sum;ilie of bur~lce;, for the 1I186-27 -I': ti e :-----r -rF st the record
level of 1:-34 million poundss !'f rni-s7l a wei~i ti l refl. eting the last three years
1.,re-r..cio.Thi Is ; lcre t hIch-r than7~ .;total o C.i.ly' for 1C985-46 and 26
rent abtor-e the :;y r:- e 14?1 -1? The Dece~nt-:r orim-te- of 19i4b bturley production
wass 581 million :ouinds v.'hich, togeither .: th record cirr,-or.er. stocks of 85.3
million Ijounds, com rise~ tot-al Fii lies, Stocks~ onl ~catato 1, 1946 were nearly
10( mi~llion ?ounds R'tor-e th~~e 2 .0 8 &:te in 198L5 rnd -stout 115 million pounds
above thie 191'rC-0-ht nve~:n-rle. Tot 1 diran -- eilrnce O~ctol-r-Sc :r:.ber 114c-46 was
LkS} million, almost identical to :'.or.t ofi thre .-.~crnced.n-.1 'a, EY.riSortsere at a
record level of about 7Tr million crnd.s ifan-C1'.-ele knight) and domesPCtic connsum ~tion
wans cstimzt ed to to a round 667 nillio rn ,-oundF--o b'ut 6 :.rcent. les thnn the hT4
million _:.oundsP of 1944-8 .~ TotlirL-J?_Ce yearae in 1?41-'-'-7 is e:-pe~ct~ed to
apprloxi.iantet0 ilinmons Soen increne in Inth? I!ome.=ticl connunotion and
exports~ are in prosoEert. Dc.t hssih1. ngreiepaachwv
stokcks ne:.:t Olctober 1 will to:. the record level of O3ctober 1, 191!'sr probablyl by
75 million :.ounds or more.

MarrketineI gyta and Acre~Ee Allotme-nts
Redulc d for 1041

Oln Octot-er 25 burlel, rovl~e rsoted ove~ri'-hlen-1 in fav~~or of marketing
oluotais for three ears 1971~, 10%8a -and 1949. Tihe 1967 ai-nnounced mariketing anota.
in 4g0 million oundls. Thlis leRis at-o 15 percent les tharn the 1346 production.
The E0oal ACre;age of 5 6,;:00 is C ,200 les than the 1366 ha.rvested acrrage of
877,00.Thi redctin i dc=1 :ned to b~rin.Y total sun--diies for 1c147-48 into bettaF
balance wiith? nticipated r-eaur~;~2tronnt If mounting n=ur luses are to be avoided
msmller prod~uction in 1987 is as en~ti.l.. The total blrleyr :nduced in the last
three .:-corc h .s vexcded disag~-rne rance lyround 350 million -.ounds. Continued
excces-ive ;_roduLction un,uld affect prices unfavorabl:.- and result. in large qluantit-ies
of tobacco be~cing ::laced under gov-mme~int loan which wJould be a continuing price-
depressing factor.







TIs-39 9

INDIAN)I TYP-E 31

i. The 13286 I-faryland tobacco ciny. was ofr re,-ord size--'iOr.B million pounds
:compared to t~he very. small 134 cr~o-. of 18.6J. Ther !5 million pound carry;-over
onJanuar: 1, 1946 w~as vlery shar 1:: down from last.gear?. Total supplies, fbr 15147,
because of the large 19846 cro -., rlre nearly. 1I' million ?bove the- "receding :.eir and
close to the 1941-45 -over~nge Totarl disa~ppeararnce riuring 1946 wras about 30 million
pounds, sli.;htly above th~e precediing: ,ear. E'";orts accmountc d for a little morr
than one-fifth of total disappeacr~ance. Erportcs re expe~'cted to increase done-
what during 1947 and dome tic conerumption also wril. to hirhor. Prices for the
"1946 Maryland crop, which goes to n~uctions in Apiril, arye expected again to be
relativelly favoraible to =roweris, A~ stro~nl demand is inr ro a-lct beca-use of high
cigarette manufacture and. thle low st,clr on h-and. The csuc ceted P01.1 acrease~ for
1947 is 50l,000~ or 5,000 acrer. hiher~l tha-n the harv~e~ti-d 1e46 Powrc~e.

Toble 3.-Malr;, l ndi t~obcco: Dom:rt~ic lp_._liesdisa -Der)FJa'nce., and.
ceason SavTr.Co ::'IaCe, RageT~~ lc~1 ,-i8, annual 10 9~-L1 1/'


: :Stck : D -.isappea.'=nrance r. : AvrP
Year : Product~ion :Ja-rnuar. 1 of' : Tot71 :einn e,1 :oi e
: : oll-r~? Zgr_:ME2; :of he fllo-rir g*: ou.nd
: million I-lillion Iliio Iilli on
: pounds couds oind rOcuinds Cocnts
Average


1939 : 32-8 '36.3 69?.1 5.9 21.1

1941 : 31.2 'c5.0 s762 r.r 0.
1942 : 28'.1 '' .7 r5;5. 56.5
1943 : n 2.8s 6. j 64.6 7=.0 1?5.3
1944 : 38.~2 376 5.8 5.55
1945 2/ : 1.4 46.5 68.9 I/ 9. 55.01
1946 1/ : 0. 5 r/l. / 5.5



FIRLE-CURZiLI, TYTES 2'1-24

Prices Belowr Record. Hieh Lev~el
of Last Yezr

Sales of Virginia fire-cured, t.:'Le ?1, tFLgan Decc~ibcir 9 .,ith dern-nd Senerally
l.stron@* The avcreige price dur'inS the first weeki wass 30?.6 cont~s :er )ouind, ns*Trly
) cents above openinrr week~ price in Dacembe~r 1345. Althiouh the average rice
adanced during succeecding weeks5 a:d for 9ales th!roug-~h Janua~ir:- 21 was 11.5 cents
or found, this was below the ;ver-age of 32.3 for all sales of typ~e 21 in 1385.
ntuck;y and Tennlessee fire-curedl 3uctions~,t;;-ne 25 -Thdr ?, o-:ened on January 9
d13 respectively, Prices for ty-,e 25'J sarlFe throluch Jaruar~yi 17 Raverare~d ?j.8
ce~~nts p3er pound, about 4 cents, below the: --vcrr.Jr for thc cmpraDTrble peFriod las.t yearZ.





- 10


For type 22, the arelrage p~rice for about 6-1/2 million -p-ounds sold at auctionse
through Ja2nuaryT 22 was 27.2 cents per :;ound, close to 3 cents below the earlys
season E-.erage a year ago. Fire-cured tobacco ranks second amzong export tobacco.
Shipments are expected to continue Sttong because of depleted stncks abroad.
The cro-p in Virginia is generally reported to be of supe~srior quality. Su-pport-
price loan rates for fire-cured average 75 percent of the ;1ven =i-- burley loin
rate. Deliveries of Virginia fire-cured to Associ-aticins haveLI been small1. .Abouit;
25 -oercent of XentuckyT and TGeT~rnec ee fire--cured deliveries have been received! tv
Associations for government loans.

~tble 4. Dark tobacco: D~omestic su3plies, disap7ea~rance, and
season avTeragSe price, averatze 1934-38, annual 1939-'-46 1


:: Stocks :Total : i~~nventrnce: Avsrase
:Production : October 1 : Su7ply :year besiluln:oingcrc ?er
:: : `-October 1 : nund
: million Million Million Million
: pounds mounds pounds pounds Cents


Fire-cured


Year


Total typTes 21-24

1933'-38


1911.2

136.2
141.6
183;.9
ls'.6
179.8
173,5
131.8
104.9


:110.2

:99.3
:107.6
: 9.7
:71.5
:64.8
:65.1
BS.]
:96.3


12j.0

93.9
65-3
69.0
76.3
71.1
108.8
85,2


10.2


9.5
1L.1
17-1
2-s.4
26.5
31-55


1939
1940
1941


1944

1946


'235.5
217.2
'253.6
??6,1
.2iL.6
238.6
190o.1
`201.2_


Da~rk air-curlT ed



:35.5 62.8 a5.3 7?.0


Total types 35-37
Average
193"-38


34 .7
33.6
`Li2.0
33.9
37.6
It1.8
""3.5


44.2
42.5
31.5
35.2
30.0
44.5
43.6
?6.9


561
,6.6
74.5
64.o
65.3
57.7
60.4
60.5


'.3
7.7

15-2

23.3
25.2


1939
19ko
1941
1942
1943
19344
19845 g]
1946 ]


95.3


1_07.4


17 TFm-sales weight
21 Preliminary.


JANUARE~Y 1947






8-e39 11

ie-Cured Supply Above Last Year:
Exrports and Consumption Less

Fire-cured production in 194t6 of 9~6 miillion pounds exceeded the small 1945
auction by 05 percent and, when added to the record low carry over~boosted total
supply for 1346-47 to 201 million pouJ~nds.--11 million more cthan for- thle pr~ecedling year
but well below any other year of r~ecord. During the marketing year ended SepteFmber
30, 1946 estimated exports I;ottaled close to 47 million pounds (farerl-sales veigh-~t) and
estimated domestic using were around 38 million pounds. Borth were below t~he pre-
.Pous year with exports probably limited by supplies available. Total disappearance
~during the current marketing year (1960-47i) is expected to be moderately Ilarger, but
stocks October 1, 1947 will probably exceed those of" October 1, l1066.

1947 Acreage Goal Up 10 Perce'nt

The acreage goal as announced called for a 10:' percent increase in acr-age cmmr
i1946, because, under average expectations, per acre yields in 1967 would not be as
high as those obtained in 1946.~ Acreagee allorments under the- 1?47 marketing ouicta.
program are the same as 1966.

DARK AIF-URED~, TY~rPES 3;-;r

Average Prices Below Last Year

Sales of One Sucker, rype 35, and Gre~en Riiver, type .t6, began In late N'ovember
and of Virginia sun-csured, type 37, in thle first week of Decembezr. Average prices
of both types 35 and S6 t~hr~ough mid-Januar~y were close ,o 23j.0; cents per pound. This
was about 1.7 cents below last season's average price b~ut, very mu~ch above any prewar
year. TIhe highest recor~ded prices were reslizedd for the 1343 crop~. Vir~ginia sun-
c~ured prices through January 26 averaged 20.7 cents per pound compared with the 1945
season average of 33.8. In the? early part of thle m.arkFtiSng season auctions of types
35 and 36 were interrupted for. a few days because of t~he coal St~rie and this pro-
pably contributed to some price uncertainty. Deliveries to the associations for gov-
ernment loans approx~imated nearly 20 percent in Ithe early selling, pe-riod. The aver-
age ;of the loan rate schedule for da;rk air-cured -obaacco is 06-2/3 percent of the
iiverage burley loan rate.

Total Supply Up, Exports Higher

Th~e carry-over stocks of the dark air cured t:,pes Octob'ter 1, 198116 were the
same as October 1, 13451 but the larger production in 134t6 boosted total supply for
1946-47 to 107 million pounds compared to 104 million pounds a year ago. Production
in 1946 was the highest since 1931 with the exception of 19J37. Tota-l disappearance
during the marketing year ended. Sept~em~bei-r S, 1966~ was 4_..6 million pounds, almost 2
million pounds above the preceding year. Sig~nif~icantlyj lower domestic consumption
was more than offset by increases in expor~te. Expsorts in 1963-66 were- about 1? mil-
~lon pounds (farm-sales wetight), more than docuble the previous year and 12 percent
aabove the 1934-38 average. ~The declrine in the3 consumption of chewing and anoking to-
Ebacco which contributed to lower domestic consumption will also be a factor during;
tecurrant year. Tbtal disappearance during 1966;-47 will probably be less as both
pots and domestic consumption are expected to be below last year.

97 Goal Less Than 1946

The total production goal announced for dark air-cured types including type
1: 39.9 million pounds cappared to the relatively high production of 46.9 million





- 12


pounds in 1946. The announced acreage goal for 19347 is 39,400 acres compared with
the December 1946 acreage estimate of 39,c;00!: acres. Per acre yields In s46 ver~e the
highest of record for all three dark air-cured types. Smaller ~acreage uinder' average
conditions will result in a. production in 194-7 more nearly in line wlith consum~ptiojn
requirements. Marketing Quotas and acreage allojtmenta will be effectiveS fo~r types8
35 and 36 and the 1947 allotmen~ts will be 10 percent below 1946.

CIGAR. TOBACCO

Large Crops Increase Supplies of Filler and Binder:
Prices of Same Types Well Above Last Year

Production of a large crop in Pennsylvania and sane increase in thle Ohio area
over last year, lifted total supplies of cigar filler to 193-million pounds for the
1946-47 marketing year, slightly above last year but 21 million below the~ 1i40-44 ev-
arage. Disappearance in the marketing year ended zSeptember 30, 1946 wasr 66.1 million
pounds, about 2.3 million above th~e previous year and over 10 million greater than in
1934-38. Cigar m~anufacture is expected to remain high through 1946-47 and constunp-
tion of domestic types of cigar filler will probably be slightly higher than in1 t~he
preceding year. Reports to date indicate that prices for the 1946 crop are2 ne-ar or
slightly above the 1945 season average of 34 cents per pound.

Production of nearly 72 million pounds of cigar binder, types 3.1 -6j, in 1466
exceeded 1945 by 10 mi~llion1 pounds. Stocks on October 1, 1946 were atolut~ the same
as last year and total supply for 1946-47 is about 10 million pounds hli.gher. This
total supply is, however, almost 7 percent below the average for 1940~-4r. Domestic
consumptiona of the binder lfeaf' ':,;-::: is expected to be moderately greate-r during
19 :1-47 because of sustained. igh~5 rate of cigar ma~nufactuire-. ConLnecti oc.t Valley
binder typess 51 and 52) waiiS add mostly before harvest lact AvC ;ust, eieiswr
nade in volume in January and because of" reported: love- qualfity :3-': s:ls c-ops are
being delivered at prices lowerr than those of _iugust. A.c-.pie ::it
hzowerver, to be around li percent above la~st yeazr. Flisconsin bin.der pri-iI .--il_ or ab-
abl~y be: near last year's level. iiAM York Hla~van~a Seed, TLpet 13,ol .-.Ut hilhe3r~
prices than in 1945.

The supply of Connecticu-t Vall~ey wrapper, type 61l, and Georgie--lor-ide w,'.pLTr;
type 62, is about the sure as a year ago Stocks on July 1,.1946, were~ l'er byr a-
bout 1 million pounds but the yroduct~ion increase In likE, mostly of c pe~l cl. wn,
1.3 million pounds above the preivious :-..e:. 31::.Pry.--anc i~n the miixc'o I1-a-;rts l yer nd-
ed June 30, 19!'-6 vras up 13 percent fi~rom the year pr)eviou:s andl~ iS expe:.r... to to high-
erfblr the' current year. LIncreasedJ use of uomlestic urrapy~,er has been rL_--c=ntry, as sup-
plies of imnporc-ed Culetl--wl~t-rapper Eiandlel. Sficocks of Eumaatra on~ Oct;ber 1, 1966;
we~re 1,2 million pounds (unste~rne~d basis) compared to the 19)37-4-1 averages of; 2.0,
zillion pea.nds.

1987 Acr-:ig Goalo Call for Increases

The 19147 goal for cigar filler, Pennsylvania Se~edleaf: type 41 Is 39,200O acres
or 5 percent above 1946. For -the: Ohio, Miami Val.ley, types 42-lr4,the 1 7~ goal is
li pe~rcin-t aiboveF 1g4( cr 6,300 acres, The 1947 Ocnnecticut cigar b1~inde 7oals,types
;1 2nd )?L,call for 11,'700 acres or a 5 percen-t incl-ease over 194c6. Th'ie lisEachusettss
goal for the scenec to-:soea is h,000 acres or a 15 ..e!--:..t increase. Wiscrnsin binder,
tyre's ;;4 and ;1 has a 1947 ;;L1 a goal o 30,400r sTI:;:h in: an ins;_rease; c ;er e~n~t
37er-1-rl ac .LE-. lew Yok and? r:;. ;.:-1ania F;aena ? 7` --. -r ,ha3 a 1-' goal of
1,4Z00 rEv.s~ _, pe-r~cer. zoove t.:1~ 1340 acreare. The :1-2 ---- :er gol o tpe
i.- a 300-acrer~ in~cr-eas-, and. for.i t::'l 62 thie sarie LLicrea gl: acin 1346..


JTANU~ARY 1947






_


Tabe ".- oec: vncv i ap lie ic_;-nr.-:@ Prnc nd sec.sonr




Yearandr;,De :rod n ..ac :3 ,7 1 Die' ppc-tence : Avery,ge
Yber 1n Ir nup\, :::-ar. l btn~i-:rc

*111 on lllion 1- lio million


'Z








; tt. ;


bl.=









1~J. j







'l,

1 .1

".2





:11.3
: 11 "
:12 "


r _


p31undrS p uni T1


11.6

1.* )





12 L
16.6
lb .'
16.'





nh~


'Totanl filler '-;,-p s

Average 1 ,5!-3:i



1941







iTo'ial Binder typesa
51-56
i~ve~rage 1: E-3;5





i:194-3
191 & ?



iTo tal wrz per I.ypes
61-62~
Average 1936-?,8

1939

1960


1
.1 l~


1 6





L1 .

? 1;


,9 '







i



61.1

r





1.C







-.7

10.9


116.6


198 .








11.2




13.6


11.2


1 .



2 ,'




pl

2 5.
--

61


16;

15,.


F rio.-noles ve~lqh..
S..ccks I'~-r t.l?/p 5r~ ii: 61. .d 6 ": aRe ., 8 of Jul;1, 1,
A nemll qu-..n~t1 ,v I 1 -pe 4ST f:-lr 113- rid i.?)13 LO is included.
- re lir, dn. ..e


lJE1iiUAPY l'dG













: : : : Drk


: Mry-:Cicar : P'eri?ue
:-land
Mil. 15. Hi.1. il. it.


Year 2) : Plue-


: Burley :Fr-


:Air
:cured
Mil. lb.


11.`7


: cured :: cured


1935-39
k4verag e


69.8




15.6

63.9
47.6


12.5

11.6
5.6
6.4
5.9
9.0
9.4
35.3


19ko
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946


7.4
4.7
3.0
4.1
3.2
6.3
13.1


2_.4
2.6
1.0
1.4
1,8
3.o
4/ 6.8


.6
2.0!
.6
.6
.::
,.-


289.5
155.6
291.3
289-1
3553
454.3
486.6


1/ Es timarted arm~r-sales wieignt s of eYports are subject to revision -e --cept, er iquei
which is export wleight;.
2/ Orop3 yEear basis varies by types -- flue-cured, y~ear sending in Ju~ne: ;i7.ryle-.nd,
year ending~i in D~ecember; all1 others, year Fer-.din~ in Sepstem'oer.
51,ooo pounds in 194o and 17,ooo pounds in 1941.
tiMonth~ of Locember estimated.

Table 7.-Tax-paid withdrawati~ls of tobacco products in the Unit~ed St~ates,
calendar years 1945 and 1946, and October-D~ecemboer 1-Ai" and 1946 J./


: Ca~lendar Tear
Pro auct s : 1945 1946 :


i Oct.-D c._C
Chenee 1943L5 198 ch-n -c


:Millions H~illions Percent Mil i ?ions HiIill ione ?-re- nt


cigarettes....,......: 267,622
cigarettes..........: 82
cigars..........,....: 5,014
cigars..............:: 98
j]1............: 436
.ctured tobacco. 3/...: 2705.2


j21,?4 4
1
5,914
93
39.7
211.1


Fi,169 C
=/
1,620 /
23 -
18-3-
j.-


1_'.
19.
13.2


Small
Large
Larg6
Small
Snrt Lf
Manufa


20.1
C! .8
17.9
5.1
9.1
21.9


72,807

1.357
24
10.5
3.2


T ax-p~aid withdrawals include -oroducts from =uerto Ri~co.
/1 360,000 in 1945 and 238,000~ in 1946.
1/ Million :pounds.


JAriSJARY 1947 -14-

Table 6.-United States 'exports, of leaf tobacco, by types, 1935'-39 overnzli.e rand
Annual 19 0-46

(Approui~mate farmcc.ales vreEight equivalent 1/)






















































1930 1935 1940
YEAR BEGINNING OCTOBER
DATA FOR 1945 AND 1946 AfRE PRELIMIINARY


U.S DEPARTMENrT OF AGRICULTUIRE NEG 46269 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
The annual relationship between supply and disappearance has influenced
prices received by growers for dark air-cured tobacco during much of the past quarter
century. The decline in outlets since the early twenties was principally due to less
chewing and decreases in exports. Other factors affecting prices are the level of gen-
eral economic activity and tobacco programs. Increased chewing by personnel in war
plants where smoking was prohibited, larger exports and government diversion programs
for nicotine and other by-products contributed to much higher prices in the late war
years. Quotas (except for type 37) and loans at rates based on 66 2/3 percent of the
burley loan rate are effective through 1948,


DARK AIR-CURED TOBACCO: PRICE: RECEIVED BY FARMERS RELATED
TO SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE, UNITED STATES, 1920-46


4



















*


PERCENT



400



300



200







0
POUNDS
MILLIONS >


200



150



100



50



0


CENTS
PER
POUND

40



30



20







0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS)


200



150



100



50



0


Supply as a percent t
olo'isappearance




\11



rr1
r r Pri1


i I I I l I I I I I I l l I






FIRE-CURED TOBACCO: PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS RELATED
TO SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE, UNITED STATES, 1920-46


CENTS
PER
POUND

40



30



20



10



0 -
POUNDS
(MILLIONS)


400



300



200



100


PERCENT



400



300



200



100



-
POUNIDS
(MILLIONS)


400



300



200



100


1930 1935 1940
YEAR BEGINNING OCTOBER
DATA FOR 194S AND 1946 ARE PRELIMINARY


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 46270 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


The annual relationship between supply and disappearance has been a factor
affecting prices received by growers of fire-cured tobacco during several of the past
twenty six years. Outlets for these types have declined since the early Twenties as
exports and chewing fell off. Snuff manufacture has been a more stable outlet. Other
factors influencing prices are the general level of economic activity and tobacco pro-
grams. Diversion to by-product uses in the early war years and increased exports to
replenish stocks in liberated Europe in the late war years contributed to higher prices
for these types. Quotas and loans at rates based on 75 percent of the burley loan rate
are effective through 1948.














:ii





U. S. IDepamme~.' t oi' Ag~icutlture
Waishingtonl 25, D. C.


OFFICIAL EUS'TESS

TS-39-1/47-1225


UNIVERSITY OF PI.A LIBRART
REFERENCES DEIPT
FNS-1 GAINSESYII.I.W! FL


1


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IIIIIlill llllllllllllllI I I l IlI I lII IIYI 11 II
3 1262 08902 3344
Pernalt:, ir- pr evar e use -co ravola
pay-:mernt ..0f noFStage, $00