Tobacco situation

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Material Information

Title:
Tobacco situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
United States -- World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Frequency:
four no. a year
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Tobacco industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
TS-1 (jAN. 1937) - TS-174 (Dec. 1980).
Numbering Peculiarities:
Issues for <March 1938>-1939 called also spring outlook issue.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Sept. issues for 1941-<1961> called also outlook issue for the next year; e.g. Sept. 1943 called 1944 outlook issue.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Issues TS-67-<TS-71> lack chronological designation.
Issuing Body:
Dec. 1980 issued by the Economics and Statistics Service, USDA.
Issuing Body:
Issued by: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, 1954-Mar. 1961; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, June 1961-Dec. 1977; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, 1978-<Dec. 1979>; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economics and Statistics Service, -Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Previously classed: A 36.94:, A 88.34/2:, and A 93.25:
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
"Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board."

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001233689
oclc - 04015633
notis - AFY4099
lccn - 78643654 //r81
issn - 0040-8344
sobekcm - AA00005303_00059
Classification:
lcc - HD9134 .A375
ddc - 338.1/7/3710973
System ID:
AA00005303:00062

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Tobacco outlook & situation

Full Text



UNIITED STATES DEPARTMENT~ OF AG=RICULL w
Bureau of Agriculturrl 1 nt1s
Washing n
TS-5 U .DPSIO ay 31, 1938 .

THRE T 0l B AC C lj S IT U AT I ON


Summary

The tobacco situation in 1937-38, as indicated by conditions to date

thiis season com~parsrd wvith: the preceding zeaso~n, has been characterized by a

material increase in production, a somewhat smraller increase in supply, a

slightly higher level of domestic rconsumption for tcbacco products as a whole,

increased xpoc~rts o~f flue-cured tobacco, and by fairly high prices andl a rather

favorable demand for ths flue-oured, Buirley, Masryland, a~nd eigar typFes.

The fluie-cured andd BurlEy crops are P4 a.nd 66 percent respectively,

larger than in 198~6-37. Prices o~f flue-cuired, hcwevtr, have averaged h;igher

than a y:ear ago. Burleyr price-s, with the axciption of the ~reco~rd high pries~

which arccompanied the extremelyr arrasll I-rop~ of' last sreaso~n, are; at the highest

level in several years. Though prices :sclined somewhat in Jtanuary, ths rela-

tively high pri'=es would seem to be chilfly~ the result of t~he recent andTI pos-

sibly continuing increase in the demand for ci aretter both in the Uinited States

and foreign rcoult~riCE. Strocks of Bu.rlr-y we-r;; vryr lowr st the beginning o~f the

current season.

Low stocks of flue-clured tchacco and increasing~ cigarette cosnsump~tioon in

many foreign countries, espPcially in the United Kingdocm, have resulted in a

material increase in exports to some mrk~rets thfis season, but t~his in rease has

been offset in part by smaller exports to China.

Production of Maryland tchacco in 1933, and~ the~ estimated supplyr of that

type on January 1, 1938, was smaller thasn a year earlier. Prices In 1937 were








- 2-


TS-5


substantially higher than in the preceding year, and the outlook for

domestic demand and prices ..during the coming months is favorable.

In spite of a material.increase in the fire-cured and dark air-

oured crops, the total supply of the former was smaller on October 1 than

a year earlier, while.the supply of the la-t~ter shcvwed only a moderate in-

orease. The outlook is for a stationary or perhaps even a declining dlom-

estic demand for snuff, and chewing and smoking tobaccoo, the products into

which the domestically consumed portion of fire-cured and dark air-cured

tobaccos are manufactured. The trend in export demand for these types is

dowvnward. Prices on the opening markets for these types were lower than a

year earlier.

The production of' cigar tobacco in 1937 was 8 percent larger than

in 1936s but the total supply of all types on October 1 was smaller than

a year earlier because of the much smaller stocks. Prices for oigar tobacco

as a whole this season probably will not differ greatly fran last year.

It seems likely that production of flue-cured, Bulrley, and dark

air-cured tobacco this season will exceed disappearance. The reverse is

likely in the case of Ma~ryland, most cigar types, and fire-oured. Crn-

sequently it is to be expected that stocks at the beginning of the 1938-39

season will be larger for flue-oured, Burleys and dark air-cured, but

smaller for M~aryland, fire-oured, and cigar types,


FLUE-CURED, TYPES 11-14

Supply fax 1937-38 the largest in history

Approximately 1,733,400,000 pounds of flue-oured tobacco are avail-
able for the 1937-38 season basedd on indications as of December 1). Thlis








TS-5


supply is nearly 12 percent more than the 1956-E? su~pply, and is by; far the
largest supply of flue-oured on reoctrd.

Stocks in the hands of dealers a~nd manufacturer on July 1 amounted
to a farm-sales-weight equivalent of 883,200,000 pounds. While this is a
record high, stocks were only slightly larger thanI those of 871,300,000
pounds on the corresponding daite a yealr e-rlier. F~rediction in 1937-38,
however, is expected to hmount to 8i50,200,000 pounds, about 24 percent more
than last eeaso~n's output and about 5 percent mcre than the previous all-
time high prlrductonn in 1935-36.

Expect larger total disappearance in 193i7-:18

Tota.l disappe-rance (do~mestic consu~mPtion pluis exportal1 of flue
cured tchacco probably will be, larger in the current se~ason than in 1936- 7.
Increased dcmastic consumption probably w-ill account for pert of the increase
in total disappea.rance, And there also w~ill likely, be ar mrderati increase
in exports.

Since the principal domestic use of flue-cured tobrseco is in the
ma~nufactuire of cigarettes, thes currEnit meremont and prevailing general trend
in cigarette consumpltion are the best indienitions of thr prese-nt rund prosE-
pective vo~lumer of filue-CUred consumption in the UJnited States. As is gen-
erally knownn, the trend f cigarette u~tilizaticn hais b~cen shsrply, upward
during the past 303 ;;ears. A te;mpo-~rar reverrsal of thelc trend occu~rred
during the years of deepes2t. depr'-ss-ion, but the~ upward movemealnt halss b~en
resumed since 1f933. Tax~-pnid withdrawals~~ during the calendar ycar 19327
totrlled more than 162.6 billion o~r 6 percent mrre~i tharn wilthdrawa-ls in 1936,
a record high. Wh~kile the current business recession iundubtedly, has tended
to retard the e~pranisin in sales of' cigare~ttes during recent mronths, talx
paid withdrawals in the last hallf of 1937 still were- runn~inS about 6 p_r-
cent larger than in the corresponding months in 1986. DurinZ the next 6
months (Janulry' to JTune 19381 thec course of business conditions- with 3t-
tendanlt chasngr^ In wa:rges rand m~Oney; incomes in gene;r- l vwill be a factor
affecting putrcha~ses of Cigoret~tes by consumers, burt it IF.ems likely tha~-t
consumption will be st least as large as in the corresponding $ months in
1937.

A considcr:.ble sharer~ of tha tcoba-cco going into the manufacturers of
smoking and plug thew~ing consists of' flu-cared, but the propertion of
total domestic consumption of flue,-cured utilized in these products is
small as compared with the volume utilized in the m~nucflct~ure of ciga~r-
ettes.

Production of smoking tobacco in the 10 months ended Olctober 1937
was 9 percent less than in the corresponding period in 1956. A slight
decline occurred betwoo~n the same two pe-riods in the output of plug chew-
ing tobacco. Any decrease which may halve occurred in the utilization of



































: Exprt-r to -
Year -beginning July : United-c : hin:a : Lt~hur:Tol
: Kingdom : 1/ countriess:
:1,000 lb, 1,000 lb. 1,000 lb, 1,000lb.t.

19570-31 i 0,5 194 3,8 8,9
5 me. July November:1941 4154 8,0 1975
Season's total : 184,446 143,942 104,300 432,6888
1931-32
5 me. July Novemnber :72, 604 1 ., 4 1 3.5
Season's tctal : 129,.399 74. 9,2 Z2:.1- -87
1932-33
5 mo, July Ncvember :63,016 5084 ?2 jF.5 140;,5;19
Season's total. : 3100 6,707 118 6,6
1933-34
5 me, July Nrvember: 73,91_3 41,23.5. :2Fl.5,9 140,987
Season's total : 170,E507 9701 7,94 2.,.350
19354-35
5 mo. July Nov~ember : 105,?'74 8 ,21 30,19 153,82 5
Season' s total : 152,389 28,976 E',09 24,474
1935-36 ,! 5L1 .? 9
5 mo, July IT.-~-c:mber:14,1 .19 2,4 1875
Season's total : 226,6 1 E'4,039 2,2 522,792~
1936-37
5 mo, July Noirember : 123,5.99 14,32n S5,405 173,914
Season's total : 170,478 43,096 p9,066 SI02,640r
1937-38
5 mo, July N~ovemnber : 132,894 1,0 3a,184 180,89-

1/ Includes Hong Kong Knd ilwats g


TS-5


- 4-


flue-oured tobacco in these two products in 1937 has been more than offset
by increased .consumption in the manufacture of cigarettes. The~total con-
sumption. of manufactured tobacco, of whichz smoking .and plug chewing are the
principal constituents, has shown a long-time downward trend, although
utilization has been rela.tiy~ely stable during the past 2 or 3 years.

Outlook favcorable for experts to 'Europe

Total exports of flue-oured tobacco from the United States duri~ng
the first 5'nmonths of th8 current marketing season (July through ljievember
1937`) totaled 180,879,108 pounds compared with 1733,914,537. in the corres-
ponding months a year earlier -- an increase of 4 percent. These were the
largest exports of flue-oured for the corresponding period since 1930.
Decreased exports to China were more than offset by larger exports to the
United Kingdom, which takes around 60 percent of United States exports of
flue-oured tobacco


Exports of flue-cured tobacco to principal
July November and season's
1930-31 to 1937-38


importing countries,
totals







TS--~


5-


Cigrette consunptian is tedi;in. t3 incre-ase in fore~ign countries
As well 's in thre Unitedd Statets. It. i ieti-,rted that c~nsu-rmptian if
a.lnl kns sf tabace)-: in Eulrgel~ r.E walle in l197-j:_.neav be .?badt 5
peren lrge tr~ in196-7.The~ c,:nany~tiar ,f ci-"-erettes, shoulli
benefit na~t )nly: fran .any incr~e-~ sowhichl cc: ,ccur in tot.al tjb ce)- c'jn-
sumption, but a~lr3 fran t:1e incin-atiin if c~nsulr.ere t, substitute ci-zrettes
for cerTtanl jthei-r tabseco prjdui'ts.

Exprts if flam-r uredl t,~t-een fran thei Unit~ed St-ates t., EurTpe in the
current Fars--jn as a ;'ille~ -shoulr be stirulTtLed byr theL fract thart increr- cing
consumptijn dlurin..: the5 ~peat 2 ,r i :years rini relatietyL: csmll Impa)rts in
19h-37 have-~~ resulted. l in EulrjIpen st,?:ks 3t the~ beg~~innin;- l jf the1 present
season beii:: s-?-,ll in relatiojn tj e~niluption. It. is esti-vted~ that tit-.1
stacks- if Unitedi States flue-cured, t,3~secj in Europye iin July: 1, 1937, nere

was t rL~uwr Le-.e. Cansuni. 'tl".rt. ELu'~r.pa C~untries w~ill ne.A to inpu~,t
a subtst -.ati.1ll, Lar--or t~t.. quanrtit;: if f'lue-c-ured t.bace.> ~urin_ t;he c1urrent

consumptijn.



tries. Lest ,f rl-bute-:er increase in e-.2'rts tj Europe t-les- pl-c_ in 19 7-30


blended ei_rarttettes .;]ich, in dlitian t, flue-cuire; en:,trin 1=r,-e qi-ntities

and imparted- 3rnn Ciitriaes jt:-lr t!;-n t -c: Un~itedl St tep. In nee~ c)intries,



Isles the1 cjnt~inued~! prefsrenci 'f ci,-l-.rtte E.n.11:ers fir Siure flue~--cuired-

daninate thel nrl-re~t far 3,me ti7, in~ the fuitu~re. .killedtinet
i23wever, thar~t t~h.. shar- jtf leaft ir,~du~ce in the_ United. St-at~e in tjta-l

as a rEsult if inc-rn-se ,rjduction ,f filu-;-cuired tjb-.ce) within the~ Z1rire
and a .mar-gin jf t -.riff prefe~rence~ !c-qui-:alentn ti about. 51 censrts per pTr.lund!
in ava f abaca rodnd ithn te Bitih E.ie.It. is T1oss.ibtlE
tnat, exp~rts t, the~ Unitet~ Ki:..: lj7 will be, fz.rrbl; -affected if recent
negt~iati~ns f~r s tr--e -rer :-nt: bet-enl tl-l-t cuntr.7 --nd. the United.
States, 3re brjought tj -s -tis~f-ot:~.c con~iic~lusian

IOutl,,k uncertai fir esprts tL rrient

11ext t,, thes Unitedl 1:in :4.2;, thnE met ine:.rt.:rt. f~reign~ imporrter
of AmericanL~ flule-clirci to.ab.ce) is ChlinrL In spiteF ,f recent in-rea~ses in
Chinese jutplut ,f flue-ured', impo~rts of Anerican-r .r;onte" toj j-.'er
4) mnillian pjrunds in 1956-ii7. Dulrin,r: the~ firrt 5 -Ionthse if the current





S6 -


Ts-5


season exports to China were 21 percent below tho se of the corresponding
period a year earlier. Largely as a result of military operations, Chinese
cigarette production has been, greatly reduced. Some factories have been
destroyed and others have suffered darlage. The Chinese 1937' flue-cured
production has been estimated at 220 million pounds compared with
180 million.in 1936. The crap was harv~ested before military activities
reached the producing areas, but the mark-eting of the crop has been dis-
rupt ed.

The outlook for exports of AmjericaLn flue-cured to China is velry
uncertain, since so m1uch depieni~s upon the intensity and the duration of
milittary activities. It seemls reasonable to believe, however, that both'
total consumption of flue-cured and total imports of American leaf during
the current season will be considerably less than in 1936-37,

Increased productics. of flue-cured ta3bacc3 within thle Japanese
Empire, Ja~panese exchange restrictions, an~d Governmental regulations
designed to foster the production and consumption of tsbacc3 produced
in Jaipan or in Jap~anese spheres of influence probably will result in
smaller imports of American flue-cured tobacco by Jatpan and Manlchuria
in 1937-38.

It is likely that the decrease in exports to the rOrient will offset
a. large part of the prospective increase in exports of flue-cured to other
mark~ets.

Prices higher this season than last despite l-,rrzr supply

With more than 95 percent of the crop already marketed by the end
of December, the average price for flue-cured tobacco was 23.5 cents per
pound compared with a season's average of 22 cents in 193t; and 20 cents
in 1935. Although that part of the crap still tobe marketed probably
will bring lower prices because of lower quality, the average for the
season will not be materially below the averag~fe to date.

The st~renath in prices in the face of the marked increase in suppIly
and production likely has been due mainly to the prospect for' further in-
creases in cigarette consum-ptian in the United States and fsrsig-n countries,
somne increase in export demand due to the necessity for repl_nishinS
foreign stocks, and perhaps, to somne extent, to the fact that domresti? and
foreign buyers may feel that a new: gov~ernmlent progrun for the adjjustment
of production may result in high~ler tobacco prices in subsequent seasons.

Monthly prices of flue-cured tabacca, by types, durin.- the~ cuLrrent
and the three preceding marketing seasons are given in the -compainyin;
table.





~~


Flue-cured~ t: b 0::: Frice per punt~." receil- d far wa'rehouise sales
fit Geo:rgia, Ulrti Carorin3, SLuth Car>lin-., snd Vir,-inia,
by t:,pes 3n5 n jnthB, 1934-35 t-) 13 ,-3,


Type sn:1 year


.July u e t :*c .


: Br. : ec.: Jnn. : Feb.


: Cents


:


Cente Cns C-nts C-nts Cents


C'en t s et


Type 11 -
1934-7,

1936-37



1-9!7- 33



Type 1i -



19J36-37

Ty~pe 114 -

19'.35-36

19 3;- 3


15r
thr r
17,0


......:
,,,,,,:
.....,:
......:
:

,,,,,,:
......:
......:

......:
......:
......:
......:
:
...---:
......:
......:
......:


25-.2 2 .
19 7 1 .1
24..
25..






21.7 22.0


'C.5
C2.c







19,0

14,5
'L 1


24.1


10,7
17.0
15,4





15.


c.0

15,


1-.7

15. r
21. "


21.1


25.0


EUr~LEY TYIPE ~1




_.lt pendu!~cti~n jf Eurl;y tabacea ir 1 57 wb-n a -t


hanis jf de~alers andi .-nr.nuff-e:~turers jn Rtjtr he in t -r7, jf f.l-roSoles wisg-ht,

c~rrespondjin; da~te in 1936~ -,nd tl< s- 1t. at ekrs since~ 19 1. TII t~tS



the 12 monlths ende-rd S:p:t.mbl~er- 3J., 1'),'7 noa:ir dsa.p rc hoed a
inceas 7:r te peceing.':ar.Thi, w -s th- firurt.i slcCe.SSive .-rear in
which disappcearane has. increasedd. clthou,~ih the; per-enit -,e ,r~wth in 1936-37
3ver 1435-3C' i-a not, as.C lr:TE) T! theli changeF fr-)i 1197,4-7,5 tj 1935_jr.


































Year De.Jan. e.Mr

: Cents Cents Cents Cents

1934-35 : 18.5 17.4 12.9 13.4
1935-36 : 20.2 18.3 12.4 7.2
1936-37 : 40.7 35.1 20.3 25.7
1937-38 : 24.5


TS-5


- 8-


The domestic use of Eurley is in ci,-rerttes and aimoking and chewing
tobacco. Exports of Burle;- have been somewhrat.1argee r l-ring the past few years
than the average during the-1920's, but foreiga dem~.eiand for.Burley constitutes
a relatively small part of the total demand. Exports in the first 2 months of
the current marketing season (October and Novemb~er) were considerably smaller,
than. a yrear earlier. The expansion in the utilization of 3urley in recent
years has been due to the use of larger quanttitie in the manufacture of cigs-
rettes in thie United States. --

Prices below a 12&& a.Ro, but still comraDrtivel~y hig1i

The Kentuckry warehouse .sales rey rt giving total sales in thiat State
during the m~on~th of Decerber, ~lists an average price of 24.5 cents pe~r pound
paid to growers of Eurley tobacco. This compares wnith 40.,7 cents poai'd -in` e-
cemb~er 1936 in Kentuakry and an o'.CTrs e for last season in all State's of 35.8
cents. Prices underwent some decline 'in January, but even if prices`;iuring
the remnainder of the season sta;Y materially be-low the- December level, th~e
season average is expected to be the highest for the last 7 or 8 yeakts",'ith.
the exception of last year.

Burley tobacco: Price per pound received for warehouse,
sales in KentuckyT, by mronthls, 1934-35 to'19377-38.


MEYL.EDi'I TYPE 32

Production and. surpl: decline: exports sma-lle~r

Production of Maryland tobacco for 1937 has been indicated st ':;,200,C000
pounds, a decrease o-f 5,600,000l pounds or 19 percent cor.--r~d with~ -r-,duction
in 1936. An outbreak of blue mould. at plan~ting time resulted i:: so..e reduction
in acreage from 1936, and in addition, growPing conditions throughout th.e season
wrere relatively unfavorable. Thne lar-e 1936 crop wras somewhat in e~-ess of
estimated disappearance during the ca-lendar :Iyear 1937. As a co~seq;e:ce,
stocks on Januzary 1, 1938, are prelicnina-rily estimated to be 3,600,:100: pounds
larger than on the corre-spr.liing~ date a year earlier. In spite of the larger
carry-over, however, the small 1937 crop brings the estimated s.Upply1J fcr th~e
new season to 67,300,000 pounds compared wsith 69,300,000 on Januaryr 1, 19217.





TS-5


Estima~ted? diseng:escennce of Ma~l;'r-lan to't:1aCco in theC calendar ;;enr 19S7
of 271~r,200,00 pounds .Ras Ccomebwhat sr.a~ller thanl in the ?r-.cefin; year. Exp~orts
haRve showni a Bjo;Jnt.Rrd tlren i:. recent .years-, e~nt in the 15rst 2 or 3 con),son~s
have re-presented only fran 20T. to '5~ percent of' total disapprearancea as cvr,-
oared with 50C per'ce:;t u.r :ore i.I ipre=-df;ieression yea09rs, The~ c'.3restic utilizEt
tion of tI.1rylord.i telcco is cl-ietfl;, in t;!e fonr: of ci ar~t~tes, For thisi
reason the .ener-al oul.tlcst_ for do~ertic demsr.d. and consu.-.ption woulld seen to
be favorable.



rPrices .at h~itinlrre in mos7Et r.olth~s ofi 193? --ere well above those -arovril-
ing in th~e c:orrespondjinL :-cont:. s in t'e prrce..in!, --eason, reflection~ the sharp
decrease ind'icr-tedl in 19.E'7 predilection -e-r.1 the e:-:p~ected1 decline in the su:~-.ply


:.ary~laid tobaccD: Price -Ior -cand;: re~ceived fjr
IalrhousJ -sales, by~; .manth~s, 1935;~-.78

Year : Jan.: Feb.: il?;,: kAir.: lMay :Jun~e :Ju~l: :k2.l.... :SF-,t.:Oct. :Ilov, : Dec.
:Celits Cents Cents Cents Cetentt -CCents ICl.:ts Cents Ci-nts Gents Cents

1935 :10l.8 1 r. E. 17.5 12.2 0.4 51 ???20516.6 13.4 12 7,9
193 :1.3 7.9 :.9 1061041.rj 25.2 29 2 :. 7 12'. 13.2 1
19371 : 7.E 11.r3 15.9 25. 25.7 0. 26.6 2..4.3 "'. 5 2a.2 13

If :garketingC semearbe in; Janua-r;,r 1 :* I'.e .year fo-lls;:.n ?reduictioni

HREQUECLTli=, ~TY2ES 21-~24




11,0000 ond.Thi-s is 1I ~erce .t mor~e tein the 197. 6 May, :it withtl th:at
ozcentionr it is the. sy.011.est oit:u.t ciice 19?T'. Stoclis ;n Octoter 1 aere o~nl;
170,00,00 ound cauarf~wt. 25,00,0' .n Octcher 1, 19.2.3. Thre total
su-sply ofi 3 217 l,~,200:,00 -jol.~.:s on~ Ol~cltoter 1 1was ? :5rcent; il~e thnln a ;;car
earlier an:. tle smalnlest. ;n 117ii fo:r en r.l~~; sesn---n rec;rdi.

In spite of tl-e 7119rp '.ecllin 1:. t-tal say-ly.1,, h~o.e ee, the quantities
of f~r~cire-cre toba~ccoJ 1:ailable in t.Ye cu.rr~ent season~ are -.are than' amp1-le.
Prod.r..rtio:n in 13C5 and~ 13..3 -'.s less thain '.ian.-.arance in. those `iars, bu'ct
th-i s a .:uie in *7rt t.: thle b:-pT~rotaCts div.iersij n 'lroprom- of the A:-ricultuiral
Ad~jusctment Ac i :iis t;'et ion. rIh!e 1937--37~ -rodiction sroblatly is not far differ-
ent fro r. "ionestic con~su:D-tion fo- nernw-".1 nul`.rJ-ses and: ex-rtrS.

1The d~onestic utilization of' snulff, t'e ?rincipal :-radul.ct -rade fronr fire-
cuLred tc'sac~cs lhs rlhow~n coupi-aratli.col; little chanee ir_ recen-t yea~rs.. In
recent irlnths, however, snu;ff cojnsuriotin, as i'?dicated ",.7 tax-?aid. with-
B~raaals, has tended to declined. nithd~ravels in the calendar yeoar 1937 nere
3 percent telow those ir. th~e corresioriin period in 19.?G, and in the 6 months
July to Decentler 1".',? w~ere slightly lose than in thie previouse years.












Exports in the first 2 months (October and Novembjer) of the current
marketing season w~ere somewhat larg-er than in the corresponding period in 1936.
Exports of Virginia fire-cured declined, but werei3 more than offset by an
increased movement to foreign markrets of Kentuckiy and Tennessee fire-cur~ed.
With the exception of last year, however, exports in Octob1er and Novemb~er wsere
the smallest for any correspondciing pDeriod on record.

In spite of thLe fact that stocks are comp~raratively low in certain
foreign countries, unfavorable factors dominate the outlook for fire-cured
tobacco in markets abroad. Principal aoong these unfavorable factors are
(1) the barriers placed by the G~ennan Government against the imprIortation of
United States tobacco, (2) the dermoralization of the Sp~anish mrarkret, (3) in-
creasing competition in the form of exports from Italy, (4) the na'ionalistic
policies that demand the use of increasing proportions of domestic leaf in
most prod~ucingj countries, particularly Germany, Poland. and Csechoslovdrcia,
and (5) the general trend toward the consumption of cigarettes and away from
the consupption, of products mad~e largely of fire-cured types of tobacco.

Fire-cured tobacco: Trices per pound received for warehouse
sales of Type 21 in Virginia and T:pes 22, 23, and 24 in
Kentucky, by months, 1934-35 to 1937-38


Typ~e and year BNo. Dec. Jan. F eb.*M. A-pr.


small and were included with January sales.


TS-5


- 10 -


Unfavorable factors in egort outlook


Cen~ts


Type 21 -
1934-35
1935-36
1936-37
1937-38
Type 22 -
1934-35
19 35-36
1936-37
1937-38
Type 23 -
1934-35
1935-36
1936-37
1937-38
Type 24 -
1934-35
1935-36
1936-37
1937-38


14.1
11.1
11.2
9.7


12.0
10.5
11.6
9.9


12.8
11.0
14.1


9,2
7.8
12.1


11.6
9.8
14,0


9.1
8.1
10.7


8. 1
6. 7
8.0


7. '
t6.4
9.1


8.8
9.2
13.9


7.5
7.4
10.5


5.8
6. 7
5.8


8.7


8.2
6.0


7.'


1/


5.1
,5.?


1/ December sales were


Cents Cents Cents .Cents Cents






TS-5


- 11 -


DARE~i AIR-CiTrED,, TY~PES icr5-3r


Production shoes LarF~ee inlre

The tjtcal supp~~~l, of 7.1 t;.rie t:ypes~; jf in~rrk rir-cured~5 tabaCICa is
estimated t>j be jnly: 2,tr0,CO:~ :;ounds mo nre then in 1957.ir, aIjlthoun pr~cdutijn
increased -lbast 7:1 percent. The tjta~l i ~rk air-culred cr.1p~ (b ~sedl jn the~
Dlecembe~r 1 CrapJ Re?, rt) T-oun~rt Ld. to l1.00i 0 pl~ll url~ ds _I?- an8 71pared \ith
24,~O,600,00 in 19 ,E. Inc-r_ses >-:r1)6acurdi ll5tps ne
Sucker, typIe .5,, reached 21_,200,00 l po~l )un.S 3)mpa~rel with 10l 0,00i
1930. *'.'.5t jf C-reen RiveLr, t,pe Jew.s1..0,0 rud gis
11,200,C'00: in t~he p~revl~ius sens n. Virginia sn-cured,.~;j. t;7pe ST, incrersedi

suppl;, in the~ faCe .af the ver,' sharlr rise in producliti~n resuite-d frjn the
fect tha~t stacks, .-hichi haverl declined c~ntinlulusl ~ l' sic- 195, :,ere 33
percent: anaillr )In I'ctober 1 tenr ,n thei c.1rresp:-ndine_ date in 1936,

'IThe l~n.7t;-ti,- trent'~. in t.Ie~ ill)71tiC -'enan:d. f~r and co~ns~ujptijn jf
dark air-c-urlrd t~t-mee:- hertan downward7-T~ bee-u.'Si if t.hei d~Ecline in the
use sf cherinc tabalcc:. Cjnsuanrtian ;f chen7inz t~be~ce) ha- n~t cha-nzed
grea~tly In t:he pa~st 2 3r ..xers, but. there des~~ n:t see~n t, be~ any; p:rjsp~ect
of znyr significrnrt. licre c~ in th~e dancer-tic. d~emandI fir da-rrk rir-cuired types.
Production ;f plug~ ch~erwn. t, t..ces~ fran Jul- t, '-setjbcr 19li or. 4.4
percent less th~an in the~ corre~spo~ndingl periad~ yea~r eaurie~r. Pr~i::u-tion
3f fine cut, declined a ndi thea output f' twisit insrcresed. Prjductijn jf
these td) prjoductr isu veryI Sn.,11, ir:7ever, r-s canper~redj with~ pJ~lug


November werE Srliler th~-ll In theF son, n~nthls a year elrlie~r, Expljrts; of
black fat, af wh;ichr t~he lar er part i3:r One Suker, also wefr- seTller
thal~n In t~he correspojndinn ; pariald in 1936. Ge~nerraLly, --pE,-.in ,, the export
demand ,utl>>k f-,r the curr._nt season is rather iunfa-:ajr-ble T3 ne~m
ex~tent th; sane-~ flct ra unich~l I-.':6 ben ne~ntianr d rs.z ._-..E~I:ersely affectin,
e-xports ,f derk fire-cuLred tabacc3 ral,, aipp:l_: t> :t dark air-_ured types,

h!ateria:l~ly 13uer priccs e:-:Tcted t:his sc,-sen

Wilth the; rpr~spcti-:i- e Amendn thi- yea-r n, 1 r~Er -.nd prabr..bly
siightly, me.11aer ttenr In 1'936-j7, -:ndd Vithi ?.n_.terirni increase in prjductian,
it seems pr~bcable thart prices~ far i~rk: Ir-suredi will ---.er.-e somewhat
lowr tenlas yer.Priesi in ther )peninn imarkete Showedf~ a sharp
decline fran last SeaSon.





TS-5


- 12 -


Dark air-cu~red tobacco: Price p~erp-ound retceived? for warehouse sales
of Typ~es 35 and? 36 in K~entucky andl Type 37 in Virgiinia, by months,
1934-35 to 1937-38

Type and; year Dec. Jan. Feb;. M ~ar. Ar

: Cents Cent s~ ents Cent s Centrs
Type 35 -:
19 34- 35 : 7.3 7. 5 6. 1 4. 7 2.2
1935.-36 : ij.8 9.1 3. 63.
19336-37 ;. 19.4 18. 12.2 18. 8
19 37- 38 : 8.2
Type 36 -:
19 34- 35 : 8.1 9.0 7. 2 5. 3
193 5-38 : 7.2 7.7 7.4 6. 4
1936-37 : 1/15.5 10.2 11.9
1937-38 : 9.8
Tlype 37 :
19 34-35 : 9.3 9.8 9.9 10.0O
1935-36 : 9.5 11.2 11.7 11.1
1936-37 : 12.5 164 13.5
1937-38 : 8.9

1/j December sales were snall and were in~cludced with January sales.

CIGaR TOzACCO

Production lar,-er but stcks,11 a.'i1 Co- 'lie? I-ECline

The outlookr for mnost cigar types of tobacco is favorable. Prolucdtion
of all ciear tobacco in 1937 approxin~ated 105,50"),000 pounds, or 8 percent
more than~ in 1936. 3ut smaller stocks on Octo~ber 1 compared with a year
earlier reduced total suply to 414,100,0>00 n7oun;?s, or 4 percent smaller than
in thie precediin6 seazso-l. 'ihe increase in production occur-red in binder,
typ~es 51-55, all of w;hich1 increased in 1937 as comp-ared? with 1936. Thle in-
crease in the crop from 421,200I,0r-to 51,100,000 ooun~ds was much more than~
offset, however, by a decrease in stockrs from 156, i:00,000 nounzds on October 1,
1936 to 137,300,000 pounds in 1937.

Production of filler and and wrapp~-er types amounted to 45,10)0,3100_ and
9,300,000 pounds, respectively, or sli~Shtly less than in the previous season.
Stockrs of filler, typ;es41-45~, were slightly smaller, while those of wrra??er,
types 61-62, were the sate as in 1936. Total su7Dlies showed a small decline.

Disappearance of cigar tobaccos in 1936-37 armounted to 121,000,000 pounds,
or 12 percent nore than disappearance in 1935-36 and 10 percent more than
19 35-37 productions_. Disappearance h~as exceele production continurously since
1932, The excess in 1936~-37 was n-ainly in binder types. Wrapper production
anld disappearance were approximately the samne.








TS-5 13-

It 3eem~ lik:el, thait the- :enln i forr sr. 'i~rssearance of ci ar tobacco
in 13.3?--32 nill 7-e a7b.t thie sane as lin 1C.I-.77 ir osnain(a nt
cated by, t=7x-r1id wit:hincalc)~ has tenie' t. increase lu'r~in the pasit fCw ;'ears.
Wlithdrawals~ in th~e calender 'eaR 12.5? were ~..c6 percentt lor or than in thie
correcron:i;n_ :erird in, 1955~. Th~e percentq s E: inrea~tSe, howj.ever, was soluller
than in 1CC6 whein --t:ithdraals w7ere ? n~erent aboves 19,5. In the 13 :Ionths from:
July thro?; h Decenler i'?3?, -ithdrawasls werre .11;_1-tly less thaln in th~e ls~t
half of 1926,r Traduc~tion of scrsm chevline, an inver':antt 0.itlet jor some1 binder
anl fi~ller :re~les ha!s irncre-sed 51 -hlltl;' In recent imonthis.

h~ice~s prob~a'll: I a~out, rne a~s in 1923.77

January1";, FebruaryT:,, ?Tnd IMarch~ are th-e ,?on~t:ia ? heav.iest nartetin- ; fr'r
'Imost Cigr'Z tobacco, buit nreici-inery irdicltions ai-e avsilable for ;ne types.
Indicatiirlrs Are that filler t;,pes V..ill .3e ?stou.t thie rann in rice as last ,.ear.
The avernye -price of all t., as of Sind-er tobaJcco~ ir, 1986 was 14. cents, an~d
it is srobsble tha:t the Pveraze for th;e first rrt oft the cul~rrent season will
be sl~_lghtly lowr. Prici s of wrapm~-ertr, .ye 13, vrpd25. et e
season, and' are E~ext--et to 'te about, th-e san~e this season.

Tax-paid wi th;iravlz o~f tobecco nr~lodcr ts Jul:;- ~: -!Toven er, a~nd~ proc~l. t ion of
mnunlfactured. toba~pcc in tho-Unltited Stnte~s, Jul;:--Octaer 1rj56 sr.i 19.5:7 1


: Juy-ec :: Jul;,"-Oct.
Prduts : : : Ch~a.ie :Mauct~ure~,:: :Change-t
: 1933 : 1937 :192C7 from: tobacco : 9 :g 9.?:9


: : :cent
Larre ci prs ...: 2,4l23E .lj :'Plu- .......: 21,1.3 0,1 -4. 4
Small ci -ars ...: :39 ?5 4 .? :Twilst ......: 2,22r5 2,3,E +7.2
Small cicarettes: 5 533 84, .5-14 -t 4.2 :Fine-c..t ...: ,1 1,74-9
Large ci arettn2: 2 .13 :Scrsyp chew~in,, 15s,375 1, 19j7 4
Mfd.tobacco 1/..: 1E4,S3-5 11.3,542 Soi:..: 61 ?9?-.
Snruf' 1/ .,.....: ll,77?? 1C,7?0 ..


Rico.
2/ ThoussuPd.~ poun-'s





Fa~cent CentI

t 11.5 22.0
-2.2 13.2
7.7 12.6


.._.. .- _--------~.~-~--~-


__


TS-5


- 14 -


Production, stocks, supply, and priceiof tobacco in the
United States, by types, 1936 and 1937


:Stocks, 00t.1: Supply :Price
Production hn:

1936 : 937 1 93 1936
: 1936 : 1937 : 1936 : 1937 :: from:


Types


:1.111.16. Mil.1t.


I; il.1b.

S87,1.3
S31.8
1341:7 .


Mil.lb. ii.!il.10. 11.1b.


Flue-oured, 11-14 ;...: 682.8
Va. fire-oured,- 21 i..i -18.1
Ky.&c Tenn.fire-cur~ed,22 :56.4 .
Ky. & Tenn. fire- :'
cured, 23 ........ -: 23.2
Henderson fire-
cured, 24 .........: 2.0
Burley, '31 ..........: .218.3 .
idsr;-land,, 22 ........: 30.8
One Sucker, 35 ...;...: 10.8
Green River, 36 .....: 11.2
Va. sun,-oured, 37 ...: 2.6
Pa. seed leaf, 41 ...: 33.4
Mi~ami Valley, 42-44 .: 13.2
Ga. &e Fla. sun-
grown, 45 .........: .8
"Conn. Val. Broad-
leaf, 51 ......;...at 12.8
Conn. Val. Havana
seed, 52 ......,....: 8,3.
`N. Y. &c Pa. Havana :a
seed, 53 ..........: 1.1
S. Wisconsin, 54 ....: 11.0
N. WNisconsin, 55 ....: -8.0
Conn. Val, shade-
growNn, 61 .........: 6.9
Ga. &c Fla. shade
growniT, 62 .........: 2?


85~0.2
20.1
S66,1


883.8
28.. 2
110,2


1,5 541c
.49;.4


61.7

5. 5
900.0
69.3
39.6
41.9
5.3
135.6
73.4

3.0


1,733.4
48.3
178.3


27.7 38.5 .. 30,9


58.6 -5.0 9,1


- 13.4
+ 4.3
-2.9
c 11.1

.0
1
-8.3


9.5
35.8
21.0
16.3

1,5.1

9.5

13.5

20.5


3O
366,8
25.2
:20.2
18.1
2.9
:28.2
. 15.7

. .2


3.5
681.7
38.5
28.8
30.7
:2.7
102.2
6P.2

2.2


1.6
571.8
2/42.1
23,8
22.0
2.4
S107.3
51.8

3.7


4.6
938.6
67.3
44.0
40.1
5.3
135.5
67.3


4.9 + 63.3


S14.7 34.2 32.9


26,1 23.7


34,4 34,2


.6 17.9


10.5

'1.5
13.8
10.6

6.8


2.0
61.4
33.1

6.8


2.1
50.7
27.9

6.9


.3.1
'72.4
41.1


3.6
64.5
38.5


16.1
:10.9
6.3


11.0
8.0
12.0?


.0 907.0


13.7 13,7


4.2


8.2 + 18.8 65.0


1/ Flue-oured stocks, July 1; T;aryla~nd, January 1 of
-/ Preliminary estimate.


year following production.


47.0 47.6 + 1.3


































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