Tobacco situation

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Material Information

Title:
Tobacco situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
United States -- World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Frequency:
four no. a year
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Tobacco industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
TS-1 (jAN. 1937) - TS-174 (Dec. 1980).
Numbering Peculiarities:
Issues for <March 1938>-1939 called also spring outlook issue.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Sept. issues for 1941-<1961> called also outlook issue for the next year; e.g. Sept. 1943 called 1944 outlook issue.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Issues TS-67-<TS-71> lack chronological designation.
Issuing Body:
Dec. 1980 issued by the Economics and Statistics Service, USDA.
Issuing Body:
Issued by: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, 1954-Mar. 1961; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, June 1961-Dec. 1977; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, 1978-<Dec. 1979>; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economics and Statistics Service, -Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Previously classed: A 36.94:, A 88.34/2:, and A 93.25:
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
"Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board."

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001233689
oclc - 04015633
notis - AFY4099
lccn - 78643654 //r81
issn - 0040-8344
sobekcm - AA00005303_00031
Classification:
lcc - HD9134 .A375
ddc - 338.1/7/3710973
System ID:
AA00005303:00031

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Tobacco outlook & situation

Full Text


S.A&O LOO ,I, ISS

! TH E



..S. TU AT 0 N
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
il;'" UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

7. : TS-30 KU SEPTEMBER 1944


gil: FLUE-CURED TOBACCO: SUPPLY AND PRICE
IN THE UNITED STATES. 1920-44
I P"7.OUNDS CENTS
;! ::iLLIO NS I PER
pStocks July 1 (farm-sle: weight)l POUND
Supply
Production
S2.000 produt 37.5
:-. --- .Parity price (Aug. 1934-Juiy 199:100.)i
S.- Prices 0




S0----- --- 22.5


,p, 800i -1 -- \- 15.0


--,': 400 C --- --- --- -- 7.5


0 :'" 0
1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
;... YEAR BEGINNING JULY
S SEASON AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS PPELIMItAR A Y + ES TIMATED o INDICATED SEPT. I

Ul:.. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG 26.4"F BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

Production of flue-curec tobacco is expected to total I,047 mil 1 ion pounds in 1944, second
ii' only to the record crop of 1939. Although stocks were further reduced last year, the supply
:available for the 1944-45 season will be larger than the-preceding year. The average farm price
this year and last topped all previous peaks back to 1919. The outlook for flue-cured during
the liext year'or so is exceptionally favorable in viek of the high rate of consumption in this
countryy and the improved outlook for exports. Stocks in this country and in Britain are below
no:, rnal in relation to demand, while there is probably no United States grown leaf on the Con
i! :. ti'nent or in the Far. East.

N: .. .
i i,'?." : i, o:,:: .. ... .. .'


Aj~iris.Jun~l~Ewnl -tC emaam&.




r .. w...


BURLEY TOBACCO: SUPPLY AND PRICE
IN THE UNITED STATES. 1920-44

--0 LIEN S ppI. C r:. L I
llIlllP .,,d
'I',oo -------'----.-- I


CENTS
PER
POUND
36


19,1925 1 30 1935 1940 1945
iEA j L".''1 OC CTOBER
.* c E r *' IC T riED SEPT I


Figure I.--In view of the prospective continued high level of consumption of cigarettes
and the smallest carry-over of cigarette type tobaccos for several years, the outlook for burley
is favorable. The exceptionally large 1944 crop givps an indicated total supply of burley for
the current season not greatly different from the large supplies of the five preceding seasons.
Burley prices are expected to continue exceptionally high in 1944-45 and a large gross farm in-
come is essentially certain from the 1944 crop. With the expected acreage and average yields,
farm income in 194E-46 is also expected to be large.



Fire-cured Tobacco: Supply and Price

in the United States, 1920-44


POUNDS


500


400


300


200


100


0


CENTS
PER
POUND

20


1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944
yEAR BECINNrJNG OCTOBER
*EASNw aiVEiAE PA.CE ECCiVEDO r rFAPEAS a ErdtMrIuAir o INDICA TE SEPT. I



Figure 2.--Over a period of years, the demand for fire-cured tobacco produced in this
country was downward, largely because of the declining exports. Consequently, the trend in
prices paid farmers was downward. Since the outbreak of war, however, prices of fire-cured and.
other dark tobaccos have advanced sharply, becauseof increased demand for products manufactured
from the dark types and the increased diversion into nicotine sulphate for insecticides. The
fire-cured price outlook for the next year or two is expected to be reasonably favorable mainly
in viev of probable increased exports.


.......................................


.. . . .. ... ,.. ....b a M


aaiESlSifSSiAsSi---"^^ -i^^-w..^.*S.A^^.."^:"^..si^==..aaiSiS;i.!!l-'lL5


.A







THE TOBACCO SITUATI ON


1945 Outlook Issu


In This Issue.


Summary ................................ 3
Consumption of Tobacco Products ......... 5


SFlue-cu ed .............................. 7
: Burley ............... ............. .. 12
; .: Maryland ............................ ... 1
: Dark Tobaccos ........................... 16
: Cigar Tobaccos .......................... 20



::I Summary

.' : In general, the outlook for tobacco during the next year or so is

i.iavorable, in view of the continued high level of domestic consumption of lee

t' 'tobacco, particularly flue-cured and burley, and the improved outlook for em-

. ports. Governments of liberated countries own outright a considerable anount

;,of export types of tobacco stored in this country, and as conditions permit,

this tobacco will -robably be exported. Stocks of aged tobacco in this coun-

:'ti:ry and in Britain are below normal in relation to disappearance, while thero

i!;ti. probably little United States grown tobacco on the European Continent or in

.the Par-East. In view of the low level of stocks and the probable post-war

:i' foreign demand, exports during the years immediately following the war should.

:e substantial. The exact level of United States exports will depend on a :
9.. ....
i .n.mber of factors such as the nature and extent of aid given Allied and friend

iy nations,, international monetary and credit policies, trade agreements, an&:

:the. supply situation in other exporting countries.. Although it appears likely

t:;hat lend-lease will continue if substantial volume another year or so, an.;

i?:.that aPn 'increase,-in foreign demand for flue-cured and- dark tobacco may foll,

imq .at ,araf ter.the end.of the war. in LEurope, it is possible that jexrij
,Jit ; it ', V'rf.., .. .. ... : : ,




sqeF~l 1944 4..

The overall consumption of tobacco products, including the overs

military, is continuing at or near the highest level in the history .o ':

industry, Domestic consumption has declined in recent months, but t1g

dine has been offset by increased shipments to the armed forces abroa r"

mqptic consumption of cigarettes is down slightly from a year ago, but ion-

esaption of snuff and chewing tobacco is at an all-time peak. Cigar' ad

ina tobacco consumption remains at a low level, but some increase is exy

in the near future. Consumption of cigarettes is expected to continue at

relatively high level throughout most of 1945, but that of'chewing tobato

spuff may decrease as employment in war plants declines.

Although stocks of flue-cured tobacco are now higher than in most.':

war years, they, as well as stocks of burley and some of the other typeso-'

below normal in relation to the present rates of disappearance. So fair ,,

this war, however, sup-lies of tobacco appear to have been sufficient.to..

care of the huge wartime demands.

Inventories of leaf tobacco at present are somewhat below a year-'

but with the large 1944 crop now entering stocks, the indicated supply .is.

bout the same as last year. With consumption tending to level off, litti

no further reduction in stocks is anticipated.

The high prices paid for tobacco this season and last will offer...

incentive to farmers to increase production next year', and in view of

level of consumption and the imDroved outlook for exports, it appears tht.$

larger acreages of most types could be grown and sold at profitable prii

Supplies of certain types., however, notably burley and cigar wrappers ap

adequate in view of the outlook for requirements. Burdensome stocks of 4

S tobaccos of former years have been reduced and are now in line with proba.'

'i ':" ..lanld.


..






: ." .'
,:t Lo s.ght the fact'that opvee a longerperiod -of time

" ...5yearp) te 4itlatin :might not-. prove -partidularly favorable'.
Sindnustrial emplyment and consumer incomes decline appreciably in the ,

tioyt-pr.prio.. stocks Oid. supplies of tobacco could pile up quite i

dbac~ ee decline ma erially.

: -,: -..- September 30 1.9t

S(WSUMPTN -o O TOBACCO PRODG TS

et. Oona mptionP CGonti.nu.es at
eg l; O fthges in :-atter:.'
"*', m :
,tion...- C e.-e

:.-it "is :estim-ateAt that during.the. fiscal' year ended. June 30, .1944 the ::i
; Cigarettes con6 ne-. inthis cpuitry,:'based on tax-paid withdrawals,;
-eA dt;ore tEh 25gY million the highest for any fiscal year on record.. :
:i'si crea.s of 5.5 .percent .oer-the. preceding fiscal year and re- :
:m- .er:canit~ a Con.s~ti~o of 8S cigarettes, which is almost .60 ,
s!ttAi.i'at'io :ip ...19QQ0- ..The -present monthly rate of domestic consump-.;
i lig 1. ast- year Taz-paid withdrawals during the:
NM .i s of .,19. mounted to approximately.138 billion, a decline of '
rhct below the corresponding-period of 19.43. Although tax-paid with-.
l ~~, ;.iona.'t.hl.y basis -maay be somewhat misleading, -inasmuch as there are ,
..Ei.Biu,.es1e., it ., rephap. significant that. consumption of cigarettes
B during uly ,a 11 percent below the' same month a year earlier
tex e'xplaine'd by a .shortage of most, of the .leading. brands in retail.
,rlftgt ..abo.ut by the h pie requirements of the earned forces abroad, as':,,.;
t of sh.ippi g ctain:ers, .and by a limited supply of fac,-
'l).',e;i : e...lar&e~~iber ,:of .cigarettes shipped abroad to the
e.' e 1s pr6ba~le. that total production of, cigare.te ,
hfl..;...nd -',eelow ,th high. level .of 1943-44 fiscal year. ,T'
ad.I-p4pe ent .shorta.e of cigarettes- i only"tempp--:
S# Na te.;i' -b -d container problems- in :the- industry should. b
f t. Since .the industry has no major reconye
614, J- e&W the eeit *y.ear--orx 'so.;siiodA. be suffi ci ent ,. o
qzrs ai hihgh level of. consumption. -. ..

.....:..in e....'xeptionally ,strong ,aemiad (or flktea-,e" .
t nzsg t^ast two s.:saons is th' -high 1vel of ;inaxp faqb


.. *W. g...- -m
t ies 4 s,- *ima1s& ..... "y d'. t 041
S ... . .

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.. t.." .. ..'i a
6 d .. .. .. ... .. :M .
T :"" :' ," :."" .
9 ., ..1, ,,.: .. :,1, ., .:r -. .. .. ..: ,M n .. : .. .
.:.,-.. ..: .. ...... :, ...... ,,.. .... : .. M




SEPTEMBER 1944 6 --

885 million in 1939. Of the total consumption in 1943 of all types of tobac
an estimated 865 million pounds were used in the manufacture of cigarettes
150 million pounds in smoking tobacco (largely granulated smoking), the' r
cipal products manufactured from flue-cured and burley leaf. The total. c.::
sumption figures include many types of leaf tobacco, but flue-cured and.
probably accounted for 75 percent of the total.

Although consumption of tobacco products in this country is contiiuing.n:
at an exceptionally high rate, it appears to have reached a peak in 19435:. bt- h '
in the aggregate and on a per capital basis. In terms of leaf equivalent (which
includes foreign-grown tobacco), the estimated per capital consumption i:i thit
country in 1943 was 8.7 pounds compared with 8.5 pounds in 1942 and 7-3 inc
1939. This is by far the largest per capital consumption of tobacco in the As-
tory of the industry. Consumption during the remainder of 1944 and 1945 is .':
expected to continue at or near the present high level.

1 .. .
Per caoita consumption of smoking tobacco, another outlet for flue..
cured tobacco and burley, has declined rather consistently since the outbre.ea*,Ai
of war and is at the lowest point on record. Production, as reported by the o,
Bureau of Internal Revenue, during the past fiscal year ended June 30, totaled
142 million pounds, 20 million below a year earlier. Production during the- '
first 6 months of 1944 totaled 57 million pounds, 26 percent below the f~ mfl.
lion pounds produced during the first half of 1943. It appears likely that :
the low Doint in the consumption of smoking tobacco has been reached and thfi'
a reversal of the trend will be seen at an early date. Behind the drastic it
duction in the consumption of smoking tobacco during the war is the prohibi"-.{
tion of smoking in war plants. Consequently, pipe smoking has given way to i.
use of chewing tobacco and snuff.

Consumption of both chewing tobacco and snuff has shown remarkable i
creases over Dre-war years, and as employment in war plants is reduced, the .
consumption of these products will be likely to decline along with a correspo
ing rise in consumption of smoking tobacco.i

Other changes in the pattern of consumption of tobacco products may ii
expected to-follow the end of the war, if there is any substantial decline t'a
employment. Inasmuch as the demand for and consumption of tobacco products .i.
affected by the purchasing power of consumers, any substantial reduction'in ;.-
emoloyment will be likely to cause a reduction in total consumption as well !
some shift from the more expensive to the cheaper forms of tobacco. During .:
years of declining industrial activity and declining wage income, such as.in...
1921 and the. early 1930's, there were decreases in the overall consumption o::
tobacco products; while in periods of rising industrial employment, there'weS
increases in the consumption of tobacco products. Changes in the purchasing"
power of consumers, however, affect the various tobacco products differently.?i :
During periods of expanding employment and rising incomes, the demand for
S higher-priced cigars and cigarettes, particularly the latter, expands,'wh'ile'
; the demand for smoking tobacco declines. These changes have been especially
S pronounced during this war. Sales of cigar's in the higher-priced classes h -e.|
increased substantially, whereas sales of low-priced cigars have greatly de-
: lined. But the decline in the consumption of low-priced cigars is due
primarily to lowered output of these types. .




L .A ... ... T. ..
.::::..... ,. .;. : .. .. ... ..









.7.. elv.of. toqtl -consumption was not. reached. again until. 194-0. Gg-
E tio..at.JE. 'the first. World 'War, contrary to tb"e general trends::,
-e&ti.o advance *rebughcut the post-wat'periad, and. eStabllsh'ed.a nrw ;
i.e peierci. 'of "'. pounds per capital in 1929. Consumption of smoking::
-sO a-~airf~ gamateiedl fairly stable during the years immediately fi11owni:
a. "a" i.' "ite" si:n .-.-chpwi.ng tobacco-began in 1918i that oontinu Ld.
y E. Jo. io t fll, the- outbreak of the second World War. Thle hmll n i
Vidrofr..eas. j nsu.mpt- n of cheering bcbacco, which has take-i 6 lace
,: ":'s.o a' of temporary. -






t a sprg ld drtght conditions in nmoE arer s &aririg th
xat,6 ... .~ -.. .. .. :in m .
f'ie t..oe o g ataso the. 194. crop of flue-c-tred. tobacco -i no:
^a.&ge t the 'seo icdla gest- on:recjt- 'Production is now pilei&d- at
.d d, opar d h 788 mi lior. last year a.L the record. oro.,
Sin4t -l S 9 e i.i P .ic.bed increase in Lhis seasbn''s proaaS.t ion^
s 6is `et a of botL a lar ige acreaZe and. a -higher yield pert;l:
i; .: -. g-ia;:. e dugi deditio:o s were most proldngea, is the

^iEkG glttua i:ie iiid-'4sAe a-dip. -roduc tion is general for all types, it is

S, .amp. de.. wi th 282 mill.iori'-last season. Up to
o pa t uLlyitfavorabi e EiI& eastern 1orth 'Carolina -
..3 .t..Q1i el f o rth Caroliz iand irginia '(.type 1). After
tre fa' brable' gto~wiAg conditions prevailed. over most of the-areas :.
,i.ape'e.ebSeio-lds .and. n total .prodrztion improved, considerably as the li
SS pt emb r 1' inAdi. cao average .y ield.- fori all flue-curq fi
M _id,' er ,a..' do "-ia re.l with- -959 a moth earlier and 933 last year..

*. elz on .half of the 1944 crop already sold it appearsnv
S..4 ,diswill .'be about 41i 1/2 cents p6r
~~.ar. Priced are the highest since 199 i .
^U& .p t t ixoereaese h1t year in. both productio8n'a l
RR'M-..". .i ttetu-zn o farmers. of a"iout O n.illio~i lb :..
Z.,t s'f oon igah^S- -saSd 3 mi.lli on in- *l 9 -1. Aftlifith
..i|.. i. thae. ciop waso higher -than at~rpresen'i the .
ii'~.Aib4c'e.- se of, p the smaller crop, was less than, th. t ats i
o gib a tou1.:,,l:,n ,,' b .. : .. :I

.*&i;$ ,..,..>:-
'. -.il .
Mi.: e..g N..f'th mJ.ro..9 Ws!s $ .;4 .:. ,,
% .. .... .. o .. ;,:f6 :. ::' : s :.:':
: ;. ; .., ... : :.. 2 .. ;. : .. ,. t .. .. "/',.. .... ,,
:. :" .. "'.' .. : .. < 4., ':' : ',; ":: .J ,.. "" ." -:: '-:. ." :f# K""" '




SEPTEMBER 1944 8 -

1944 Crop Under Maximum Price Regulation .
With Differentials Between Tied and.
Untied Tobiacco

Before the opening of the Georgia-Ficrida markets in July, the Offaiee."
Price Admiiistration announced that the '1:44 crop of flue-cr'-ed tcob&'_co would '
be placed ird.ar a maximum price regulation with a differentia..l of 4-1/2 cents .
per TO',r"L hbe.ween tied and untied tobacco. The order, effective Jily 28.
provided for a maximum weighted average purchase price at the grower's...levfl of:
43-1/2 cents per pound for tobacco tied in hands (applicable to types 11 13.
produ.:ed in the Carolinas and Virginia) and 39 cents for untied to'p.cco
(apps., able to tyne 14 T.roduced in Georgia and. F .ide). Opening of the,.
markr:ts in Georgia and Florida, originally scheduled for July 21 by the TnitEed
States Tobacco Association, dvla delayed eo~n- -ou.an appeal by-growers to the-
Office of Price Administration for an increase in the ceiling prices. The ..
request was refused by the Prioe Administrator on the grounds that (1) the .
announced I104L ceiling prices were in accord with the provisions of the '
Emergency Price Con'rol Act of 1942 as amended, and (2) that any further
increase in manufacturers' leaf costs may necessitate an upward revision in
cigarette nprces, and, therefore, would not be in keeping wi. hb the
Administration's program of econom'.c st bilization- This decision of the
Office of Price Adninistrsticn tras upheld by the Director of the Off ce of
Economic Stabilization and, after the decision was announced. the Gecegia,-
Florida markets opened for sale of the 19h4 crop. The differential that exi
under: the regulatijn"between the price for tied and untied tobacco is that-,
recommended by the Flue-Cured Tobacco Advisory Committee and other represen-.J
tatives of the industry.

In addition to price ceilings at the grower's level,- the 19hh regul
unlike those of previous years, provides for control of all sales of the ct.
from prod--..er to manufacturer. The regulation provides for mark-ups on .
resises by dealers based on historical prices charged by dealers to vario,:iii
types of purchasers. It also sets prices that may be charged for stemming:,
and redrying services which may be performed by dealers.

Allocatio.s to DoTestic and Foreign
L3se-'s Tncreased as RPsllt of
iL ,.er Crop Prosoects

Owing to the exceptionally strong demand for flue-cured tobacco this ,.
season, and the necessity for the establishment of ceiling prices, the Ware;
Administration, in order to insure a frir distribution of the crop among the.
various buyln- interests, placed restrictions on the purchases of the 1944
crop of flue-curea. ;obac:co byz mPnufacturers and dealers The crop was also. 6
allocated as to foreign and domestic use.

Under the original order (issued July 18), manufacturers and dealers -:
were allocated 516 million pounds, based on July 1 estimated production of .
834 million pounds. An amendment to this order on August 17 increased these :;
allocations to 610 million Dounds based on the August 1 crop estimate of 984
million pounds.


. .; .. ...... 1.M


** .








e..m'.anpficturer'tfrom 578 mil lion to 624 million pounds.."' Te new,
.la-ion toq''anufactitre is 96 percent of'the quantity used by these
c turers in the. year ended June 30, 1944'-, and only 2 percent less than
tI.chased- from th' record 1939 crop. Dealers. .ar- allowed to.purchase 167 'a
n':ipdunds:, of whidh'l28 milli-on pounds are intended for sale to manu- .i
V .T.hen:emaiand- "will be applied to export requirements. This is ."
I,'.f .the I943 ler allocations. Total allocations under the new
:; Ma n&iin e df grants-.is s 1021 million pounds. Of that .otal 391
-atids e to?.a. The.'requirements .of Allied and friendly nations,. .

it .:.ta .~ated..-thdt.-'should 194 production reach. 1,047 million pounds, ,;
.p.t.. g 'f-or,-doma ic use probably will be increased. According. to :.
a.ai ati6ns tha'nsntityavailable to-manufacturers from. the 1944 :..
iL.EaLor .I:e e the.amolnt used.by them during the 12-month period

i-'-.e.. I1 and -4.':Com.leted Tp:es 11 .
1 ." e ....

a-.Flotida ma rke.ts fot Ve1,4. opened.July 31 with prices for 'most'-::'
gWf*1w,.the :opaenin4g4week of' laityear. The.:first week of sales. was
..'a. rlatielyst og dema d-'ahd- avery" narrow range in .price
'Sh'er ?.*andn ovgerr gr-ades. This was-a-continuation of a trend that has
etioied. in nost al-l 'flue-sured markets during the past.two.'seasons.
Sit^h eth'. second week of sales and continuing--throughout the remainder.
,t-blitee,3 a.te'dethy fraipr.iices of --lowe'tgrades of tobacco."to
c io-'S: h-ig-er quality i:af..improved notably..: At -the
eoni oS itpmlb'eprm sa l es of. tL-e i4) .totaNled 113 m.iiion:pounds ;
ree:...6 ..nt: e p.oudi3ients below the establishedd; .
j^ 41hs .typ:e,'- .rInl93 grpwers received an average::f' 390' cents per
type 4,~: tfa'h.ighest bn .reord. Tlhe season .'average price for the .
u ; ured belt ten s 11 1) was 2';4a cents. per pound. Leat year, the:
#.,i.i.bet eween:. the. vari ous tes wa .u.a.lly narrow; however ,

i4S4 i'olinao and ,B" er Belt (type 13) markets: began sales on August o|
... J tal grades. rPrices for better grades.
h. the of Tee eighr thani- in ii 4e ncorre spending period
ie'is -o:f T li .lef.dclined Most of the 1944 crop-.
St^ ?3%e 6iY 'wiy ti million 'po-uds' Aaving been :old
II "e pf4 d.- ;hecrop i'sofi go.d quality-anid ;
o ak^K^tt^ pi^'S^S fi1s 1wihl bring a rpeord rettten ta-gre'fvers;q of0 :
t4,e ............. t g .h ...... ,neu .









Sa Belt (.type 12) market;s.:opened gust. 28 wi-th a
o .a" all quq i,. tie s.. .At to r .pi i y.r .

Aa hi A :t. all REhfe
t .teg.eke,.. ..-e x. ..The. ln:i tSPe It ..





-ji .6 -0
AVdrf.tF^eflt Ji.- a end' fr p.er'-pttn;del^>M: tcmphe b4i w1*4t t
.oenta.:., a.d t 2be.t e ow the ta.b.
'"k &'a-t rrs !dneerul sa1. n4 145 ."e ,ot Sa .
ir":e :L 3:.'.,,;". .' ':; .. .:, .. ..". ", :- .
.o: dt~e; stO" :9hMr ~
i "' $:'." .,',.:"".!:". w., ... I:..'., T".. '" .1"0.. "" .




- ILV -


through September 27 totaled approximately 16 million pounds at an average c
0-(. 42-1/2 cents per pound. Sales on the opening day of the Old B'elt marketS
(type lla) totaled approximately 5 million pounds at an average of 40-i .
per pound.

Stocks Below Year Agg; DiSappearance
at Record Level

.. As a result of the high level of manufacturing, substantial lendA.i
S shipments, and other exports, stocks of flue-cured declined still furth4i 4
during the past season, which ended June 30, 1944.. On July 1, 1944, 8i
S held by manufacturers and dealers were placed at approximately 1,1 88ma
i',. pounds (farm-sales wei-ht), 191 million pounds below July 1, 1943. Modre
of this total, about 154 million pounds consisted of leaf held by or.for-.r
account of the Commodity Credit Corporation and was earmarked for expar
the total estimated stocks of flue-cured on July 1, 194, more than 1.
million pounds will be available for domestic manufacturing, With doe
S consumption of tobacco tending to level off, and a.near record crop in:',
entering stocks, it is possible that the stocks situation will have impr
S by July 1, 1945. Stocks of flue-cured now represent slightly more tha3i,":1
months' utilization at the current rate of manufacturing, which is below nAo
Disappearance of flue-cured tobacco in the 1943-44 marketing year'todale.i:,
approximately 980 million pounds, an increase of 12 percent over the'ptre
year and almost 70 percent over 1940, the first full year of the war. :

It is expected that acquisitions by the Commodity Credit Corporatia n
from the 1944 flue-cured crop may exceed 330 million pounds. With substa
quantities of 1943 tobacco still on hand, lend-lease shipments in 1944 .:
be somewhat larger than the preceding year, and shipments on a regular cn
basis should be above last year. Of the total exports to Allied nation's
1943-44, approximately 1/3 consisted of lend-lease shipments and 2/3 of
shipments. Inasmuch as foreign stocks are low, total exports of flue-cu
are expected to be somewhat larger next year. The expected increase in
should offset any decline in domestic consumption, and, with the large I
crop, disappearance of flue-cured in 1044-45 would be somewhat less thanA
S season, and leave stocks on July 1, 1945, at about the same level as on..
S 1944, After allowing for Commodity Credit holdings, such stocks would b
large in comparison with average carry-over in the past, but would be s
in relation to consumption than on the average in recent years.

With present high prices for flue-cured leaf, growers will have
incentive to increase the acreage and production next year. Inasmuch ad'-
labor and fertilizer situation is expected to improve, a 1945 crop of-fl
cured tobacco larger than that of 1944 would probably be grown and sold.::
profitable prices.

Long-Time Outlook for Foreign
M:: Markets Uncertain

Although it appears likely that lend-lease will continue in fairly'
volume and that a sharp increase in foreign demand for United States fli
tobacco may follow immediately after the end of the war in Europe, it is
;1..4
voueadta hapices nfrig eadfrUiedSae lts<1






Pages
Missing
or
Unavailable







Notwithstanding the record utilization, the outlook with regard to
at year's total supply is more favorable than manufacturers' and dealers'
fentories, mainly because of the relatively large 1944 crop. For the 1941445
n the supply of burley leaf available for domestic manufacturing, export,
iarry-over, as now estimated, represents 250 percent of estimated dis-
r`ance compared with 245 percent for last season and 335 percent for the
1 season. But because of the large 1939 crop, the supply of leaf in 1940
. exgcceptionally large In relation to disappearance. With a 1944 crop of 441
il9.on pounds and a carry-over of 641 million pounds, the total supply avail- .
be. for domestic manufacturing and export and carry-over would be 1,082 ,
1-ion pounds for the 1944-45 season, an increase of about 6 million pounds
reC ,.that for 19hL3-44. .

In view of the continued strong demand for cigarettes and the relatively j
Oflevel of stocks,' the outlook for burley tobacco during the next year or so
4avotvrable. Domesti demand for the leaf should remain strong and prices
%-.: growers favorable eeause of the difficulty of obtaining some brands
t!.eigarettes and the decline in employment in war plants, where smoking is
ptebited, the use of the leaf in the manufacture of smoking tobacco may
se. Any increase in the consumption of smoking tobacco would affect
More than any other type. Unlike flue-cured, little burley is exported
.Ily, but in view of the low level of stocks of cigarette tobacco in
in and on the Continent, it is likely that exports will increase somewhat
M.ig the next year or so over present levels,

"Largely as a result of the increased popularity of cigarettes,
tic consumption of burley has increased over a period of yeprs, both in
ggregate and on a per capital basis. Domestic consumption has increased
226 million pounds in 1923-to 410 million pounds in 1943, or, on a per
basis, from slightly less than 2 pounds to more than 3 pounds. During
*..me period, the consumption of cigarettes has increased from 1.73
"per person (total population) to approximately 5.54 pounds. Smoking
o., on the other hand, declined from 1.39 to 1.10 pounds during the same
~ of time, and chewing tobacco declined from 1.93 to 9.83 pounds per


is in the case of flue-cured, a 1945 crop of burley somewhat larger
EI1.9'14 crop could be produced and sold at profitable prices. But in
-.thle relatively large crop in 1944 and the indicated increase in the
together with the expected decline in employment and a reduction in
er:;pu'chasing power, any further increase in burley production at this
49ea e..to be undesirable. Moreover, burley is not an export tobacco,
te improve outlook for exports does not apoly to this type to any grept
I t '-Because of this fhct, any decline in domestic consumption has a greater
terr affect on burley than on flue-cured. Since the price of tobacco this <
QOi. a expected to be.more favorable than the prices of competing crops,
w il.l :'e.. considerable pressure to. increase burley production next .year,
to% the ultimate disadvantage of barley growers;


S. .. '...:..





SEPTEMBER 1944 -

MARYLAND, TYPE '32

The est'iated 19lh production of Marylanry4t0bcco as of Sep!temoer :.:
approximately 29 million pounds, compared with an estimated 17-1/2 million;.:
pounds in 1943, and an average of 28,9 million for the 5-year period 1935-39;::. :
According to reports, the 1944 crops is of high quality, containing a larger.-. .
than usual percentage of better grades of leaf. In view of the strong demand ".
and low inventories of Maryland, prices peid for this year's crop, which
will be sold in 1945, should be relatively high.

Table 3.- Maryland tobacco: Domestic supplies, disappearance
and season average price, average 1935-39, annual 1940-44 1

Production Stocks Totl :Disaear-eason aver-
(sold in the Jan. 1 of :supply for:aceun: age farm
Year r: the fo :'ef:.
following following the fol- : price per
er): lowing pound
year) year lowing year ear : po
:Mil, lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Cents
Average :
1935-39: 28.9 38.4 67.3 27.9 20.4

1940 : 32.6 3.2 75.2 30.8 33.0
1941 : 31.2 45.0 76.2 28.5 30.1
1942 28.1 47.7 75.8 2/32.0 2/56.5
1943 2/ : 17,6 43.8 61.4 1/32.0 2/45.6
194 4: /29.1 J/29.14 1/58.5 ,B

1/ Farm-sales-weight equivalent.
2/ Preliminary.
j Estimated.
./ Indicated September 1.

Average Price for 19q3 Crop
'Below 1i942

The four Southern Maryland auction markets began selling the 1943 croj
May 9 and closed for the season August 31. Net farm sales (which included- i
some 1942 crop tobacco) were in excess of 17 million pounds at an average
price of 45-1/2 cents, compared with 56 cents for the 1942 crop. In addition
to the sales on the auction markets, Baltimore sales.through September 1
amounted to 3,400,000 pounds. Combined sales on auction floors and Baltimoe:;:
markets were 20-1/2 million pounds, at an average price of roughly 45 cents",;;.
contracted with 25 million pounds at an average price of 56 cents last year.:-%i

The 1943 crop of Maryland was one of the smallest on record, and
Exceptionally poor in quality. Demand.for better grades suitable for cigarette
lamuLfr-.cture was strong, and prices for such grades were at the ceiling price-'
of 62 cents per pound throughout the season. However, because of the large A.
percentage of poor quality leaf, the price of which was substantially lower,..
the person's average rice was well below last year's average.


"....... ........




0 -15-

Just before the opening of the Maryland auction markets, the Office of
SPrice Administration announced a maximum price regulation on the 19h3 crop of
Maryland. This regulation, the first issued on Maryland tobacco, established
a maximum weighted average purchase price of 52 cents per pound. Markets
opened May 9 but were cibsed almost immediately after sales began, owing to
dissatisfaction with the prices offered by buyers. It was evident that, under
the existing circumstances, the season average returns to growers would be
substantially below thb'. contemplated under the regulation. Consequently,
Maximum Price Regulation No. 532 was revised, effective May 20. The revised
regulation established a maximum ceiling price of 62 cents per pound for any
sale of Maryland tobacco except those made by dealers, for whom seaperate
provisions were made. The new order allowed flexibility in that it permitted
buyers to make purchases according to needs, but only so long a s the 62-cent
ceiling was not violated, The averaging of all purchases, and the necessity
of proportioning all -pu#thases in such a way as to be within the price ceiling
Sat the end of the season, was no longer necessary as under the earlier .
regulation.

SFurther Reduction in Stocks Indicated:
Consumption at Record Level

As a result of the high level of domestic manufacturing, stocks of
SMaryland tobacco at the beginning of the marketing season were below a year
Earlier, and a further reduction is indicated for January 1, 1945. On July 1,
1944, stocks held by dealers and manufacturers totaled 39 million pounds
>:.'.(farm-sales weight) which was below July 1, 1943. Additions to manufp cturers'
IA :..sto.cks through purchases of the 1943 crop are substantially less than 19h44
ir;..consumption. It is expected that disappearance of the leaf during the present
I.'calendar year will be about 73 percent of stocks (as reported January 1, 1944),
compared with 67 percent a year earlier. Assuming a 194L disaoneprance of 32
,: million pounds, stocks on January 1, 1945, would be reduced to about 28 million
::::*pounds or less, and, in relation to demand, the lowest in many years. Since
i:?,:very little Maryland has been exported during the war, practically all of the
socks held by manufacturers and dealers will be available for domestic con-
.:i optiontion, and a large percentage for the manufacture of cigarettes. Despite
the relatively large 1944 production, the outlook is for a sharply reduced
supply of Maryland next season. The indicated 1944 crop of 29 million pounds,
S.plus estimated stocks of 29.4 million for January 1, 1945, would result in
;a .. total supply of 58.4 million available for 1945. Because of low inventories,
consumption of Maryland has probably reached a peak for the war period, and is
i. likely to decline during the next year or so. But even with a slight reduc-
S.tion in disappearance, it will trke several years of average production to
S build stocks to the ore-war level.

Although the outlook for exports of tobacco generally is more favorable
Snow than at Finy time since the entrance of this country into the war, it is
not likely that exports of Maryland will increase to any great extent in the
near future. The trend in exports has been downward for a long time. Prior
I to 1930, experts amounted to more than 50 percent of the total production.
In 1926 exports of Maryland leaf amounted to more than 20 million pounds, or
80' percent of that year's production, whereas in 191h2 less than 2 million
Pounds or .5 percent of the crop was exported. During that time Maryland




SE-TTEF PFc l 1 6'-

t:'.bcc') as bec:.oe increaPir.-ly ooD.ular wi:Th doaretic cigarette manufacturers.
'The lr.f is naw used priLraril;. in the manufacture 'f cigarettes, but its con-
sur.ptinn has n.-t increased in proporti m to t he rise in the consumption of
that oroduc.l .

Btcruse of its increased popularity and the tendency for production to
r-r:..in fairly c.table, the rice of MarIyand, in relation to flue-cured and
burlie.y, has ad'va.nccd over a period of ,ears. If the lon time upward trend
in cifarette consumption continues, the demand for Mar'yla.nd should remain
fairly strong and from the standpoint of both the Icng-time outlook and the
present suOpDy and dFe.end conditions, a considerable expansion in PcrenFe end
prd'0.ctionj in the next ftw ye.rs seems desirable 3But further increases in
pr duction of t-'ar'lEnd leaf i'ill demand upon tihe vi inability of labor, and
the price of lr.:-and in rr!at:ion to prices -f fluc-c'ured and barley. The
prr:,xiuit;,y of the Mi.ary:land district t.- the centers of industi;.l activity Lakes
labor increasin-gly difficult to obtain, end it is likely that the cost of
productic-n and narketinT :.f 14arylpand is considerably trePter than either flue-
cured or burley.

PARk 'TOEP.CCOS

Indicated Prduction PAb)ut Same
As Last lear

The iq'- domestic ornd'.i.ction of all dark tobaccos is now placed at
approxi-a-tely 95 zillion rounJs, .*'rich is pb;ut the same as last yeer, but more
than 1/3 lesz than the rvtrar-e production during the 5-;.-esr period 1935-39.
The slight increase which h is indicaTed is due entirely to the larger acreage,
as the ;yield ner acre is belo'-' ll3o

Fire-cured is the only major type of tobacco to show a decline in
production this year. The 19 h crop as of Settember 1 is placed at 59.8
million pounds, 5 milli on belo". the record low of 6h.g million pounds produced
in 1qc3. s of July 1, the fire-cured acreage wrs placed .t 65,800 acres, a
4.4 Dercen.c decrease below, the 6SSG0 Pcres h-rver ted in 19"3. Indicated fire-
cured field d this -yer is cOS pounds ner acre co.nnpred with 942 last year.
Alt.hr.ugh crop conditions iinroved during Aug.ust, the crop suffered from unfavor-
able ,'ather during most of the seaps-n. The 1944 crop of Virginia fi .--cured
is placed at a little over 12 million pounds, up 2-1/2 million from 1943, and
the only fire-cured type to show an increase over last year.

I. contract to fire-cured, the 11q4 production of dark air-cured
(t;-pes 35-3) is expected to be above lj3. The croo is now placed at 35
million pc r.dc -- an incrase- cf about 5 million rounds over 19'j. Production
of One Sucker ttyp-e 35) is lraced aL 20 million pounds corcarel with 17 last
year. Production of Green River (tt-pe 36) is expected to reach 12-1/2 million
pounds comr:. red with the record low of 11 million rounds in 19J3,' This year's
production of Virginia cun-cured (ty.-oe 37) is expected to be-slightly above
last year's production of 2 million pounds, Despite the small. increase in
dark air-cured this year over last, the 19h! crop of dark tobaccos is one of
the smallest in many years,,nd renresentE a continuation of the long-time
downward trend in the production of dark tobaccos in this country.







Stocks Low in Relation to Demand;
Decrease in Su-plies of Dark
Tobaccos Indicated

Largely as a result of the small o19L crop and some increase in domestic
consumption, stocks of all types of dark tobaccos ere below a year a0go
Inventories of manufacturers and dealers on October i, lohL, are ex-acted to
total about 229 million pounds, compared with 2h5 million in 19'3 and 207
million in 19O. The 194L crop of 95 million pounds, together wiLh the
estimated carry-over of 22q million pounds, gives an availpbl- sunny of
slightly less than 3h million pounds for the season beginning Otober 1, 19.
This is about 16 million pounds less than a year earlier and 15 percent
below the average fot the 5-year period 19w0"-9 '.hen there was a definite
surplus of dark tobaccos. Domestic consumption and exports for the 194L--4
season is preliminarily placed at 111 million pour.ds, aboG't the s-m-e as the
previous year, but well below the 1935-35 average of 157 milli-.n po.unds.
Disappearance during 1944-45 is expectedd to be somewhat larger than the present
season,

Stocks of fire-cured (types 21-2L) as of October 1, 1944, are expected
to be about 11 million pounds below the 18I million rounds reported on October
1, 1943. Total disappearance of 76 millic.n for the -.ear ended Scotember 30,
194h, is about the same as the preceding season. Stocks of d ark-air-cured
(types 35-37) are preliminarily placed at 0j.5 million nouind for the be-inning
of next season, about 5 million below October 1, 1'43, and about the same as
the 1935-39 average. Owing to the increase in production this yFrr, the supply
for the 1944-45 season is placed at q6 million poun-ds, about the sa..e aPs a year
earlier. DisapDearance during 19J3-44 sEacon is about the sane i.s the 19L2-h3.
Domestic consumption arnd exports of One Sucl:Fr (type 35) of 1') million pounds
was about 4 million pounds greater than the previous season. DisrcvocarPncc of
Green River (type 36) is lese this season than lp.t, and Virginia sun-cured
is about the same.

Outlook Fevorable

In view of the strong demand for leaf tobacco during. the pc-st two
seasons and the high level of ccns-mrntion of snuff and cl-ewing tobacco, the
outlook for dark tobaccos during the next :year or so is favorable, The low
level of production during the past 4 or 5 j.Cars, and the increased domestic
consumption (including the diversion program) have combined to bring supplies
more nearly into line with probable demand r-F.n at an, time in many years.
For a long time prior to the present war, the trend in demand for and consump-
tion of dark tobaccos produced in this country was downward. Thi as .s ue
-mainly to a shrinkage in export markets, although reduced domestic consumption
was a factor of some importance. During the years immediately preceding the
outbreak of this war, an average of 70 million pounds was exported annually.
This was less than one-half the volume ex-orted during the early 1920's.
Following the outbreak of war in 1939, the stoppage of trade with the countries
of Continental Europe reduced still further the exports of fire-cured and
dark air-cured tobacco from the United States.


TS-30


- 17 -




SEF TE.; ER 1'4j4 18 -

Alli'ough exnorts of d rk to-accos E.r-, now at the lowest level in many
e-..rz, the outlo'.: for eX'or'. i ..-h more tavor:.- l tri-an a year F,;-:o
Ir.:r.:uch PCs toc:: ,on the Eu-ooran ....tit .e! L .-'e p'ooet;t low and ch'jpping
cordil ::;.na3 are expected to _improve, exto. ,.s dur.in1 the,- next .,er-r or co should
be ccn..id-lJy above present levels. It i. likAely th.'t a considerable
quanti ..t.: : t rrck tobaccos in the U.i ted r.ate, uw: a" is o,;'nC outrightt
oy, the Io-,ver.-nl: e!tsI of the liberrcted c: iuntri- s will be ,:'.:ported dw ---. the
1r4h.-'4 C.-a- ,. Since tce t-ax on tobacco pr.r du:l t is : njor scu.- .: of
reV;-nui, it ia probable that finances vill be ur-da avR:.'.l-ble for t.ic purchase
of add. tim tobacco by these national, a '. I",h t'e ".ri'tr outlook for exports,
F nd the c, ntlnued hich level of domestic c.n:u- m.ir:tn 'r. ,ro-j .r t, :t ap eprs
t-at '--on- iderahl:,- la'cr cr.:D of Crk tob'. -.-rtic~uari,; fire-cured, could
be c:.rc ,:L.ced and c')ld at profiL?ble -,rices i 1? 5 .Alt:,ugh -mp.cts of dark
t:o'.ac .o- fUr.ni- the United StS.: z me;,- ir.crec ;e K u; s- "?n' -l 1. -"/ ,":.Pringi the next
car or o" it .p.r.o rr ikel" tiat o'-er a lor..e" pe:i cd of ti.nc they may
d.eclin to a reiF ti-el; low le .-el, Frduc ii tin c.n th i Co;.tinen apn ee.rs to
have in-rt S -- .~' e-' n under r condition -.id c.:;:e stoc- s in thoce countries
are again nor el in si-e, it arppers probable that United States producers may
again face severe competition from Europoean growers.

Doflj'-:tc C,,r'urant ion of Snuff and. Chei.,ing
Tja:,.cs *.:...t n.-u; at -i 'h L_ v,-I

Dor-'jntic conrurjmotion of cnuff and chewing tobacco, the principal
products o .rnuf'ctred f--im d-V r toa.ccos pr'duce in this count ",' has
incr-'c.ce.i under .P:. cornditions. sit ..-u.ch t.ie upr ca:.ita consuzipt-ion of these
Ijroducts hP dr-cli:-d ovzr a pj-rio.. 'fi .-eFrs the aggregate quantities
cuncu'iacd novw are at the highest level in can-, ye ars.

Doir. stic consumption of snuff, the nrincip.l trade outlet for fire-cured
tobacco, :r-z. Chown r sl.betPntial increase over-nre-wir :,'enre, but is now
running b.elo: the record level Fztablished last ,year. Per cEapta consumption
of snuff h!--F been fairly stable -over a period of ;,'-ar, but ha-- in.rc;ased from
.29 Fpound. in 19?.9 t- o a.n estimat ed .33 in 19'"3. E-rii. the 12 mor.:ns ended :
J1._ne '.9i4 d:nestic cons'- ction. r's infiicated b-' 'rles of revenue sta.r.Tps,
totaled L'27 r.m ili :n: rounr .d co.f-:red tith '- .., nil'.ion pound, tche trecccding .
-e?,P Tih; is the hii .ci : l ttt.i co.rsuzation of snruff on rec.:d. D 'urina the
fir.- 7 m:n.t:'E of the rc-tent c;-lendcr year, ta:x-_oid wiLthdrav,-ls of snuff were
5 pr:c:-nt [-:.L--w the same period in t.ie pr!-t. year, e.nd during the month of July
v.it hdr,_arals -v.-re P6 percent below Jul:' 1LO z

Pr-oduction of che'-ine tobccc. '-al.ug rrd tuist), the principal products
npnufr-ctured fro: di rk ir-cur i, c :nt 'nus t nigha ra, te. as rrporte'd by .A
int-.rn'-l r- v.-cue. -.Ldu,:tizn of plu._ rcheiin '.ra-s 30.7 a.11lion pounds during
the first -s;in's cf Ic1Lh, n ncrea':e of 7 oerce.t over 2i5& million pounds .
produced d,.rirngi tle corresuonfir. -=r Ld of 1943o Furthermore, Jun- showed
an i-ncrease of 1 nuercent over the ae -.. onzh of the preceding year- Du ring *
the fiscal J'yer lqj3-h4, Fl 1o: 6l million p-und- cf p-,ug chcwng wj.re produced,:
the largest for an;- 12-r.onth rerind on record. -fu-ing the first b months of
the prevent calendar yeaFr, prcdJcticn of tl.,it amounLtc-d to 3.2 million pounds, .
a Eitht decline from a yrar earlier. 'one'-nption of these products will
prob-~bly continue at a relatively high rate for the remainder of the period .
of high industrial activity and employment in war plants, but the recent upturn
does not appear to represent a reversal of the long-time downward trend in
the per capital consumption of chewing tobacco in this country.

hi






Table 4.- .Dark tobaccos: ,Domestic supplies, disappearance, and season
average price, average 1935-39, annual 1940-44 14
I'. .
.. :, :Disappear- : Average
SProduc- -: Stocks : Total :ance, year': price
. ',Year
S ear tion : Oct. 1 : supply :beginning : per
iii ______ __ : __ : Oct. __pound
SMil. lb. Mill. -b. il. lb. Mil 15b. Cents
St.ypes -
dark air-cured.:

.: TOTAL ALL DABi: TOBACCOS


19402

.:1941

S'1944
e. 21 -,4
9.935-39

i::" 420


t: ,7
( ", ...


1943 2/
11:944

~ .35-37
39"-



43 2
44
SCt*ype 35


4/


139-9
150.1
101.2
106.7
94.8
94.9


103.6
107.6
:: 69.-7
S 71.5
: 64.8
:_/L59-8


: 36.3
42 .-5
S 31.5
35.2
30.0
: 4/ 35.1


240.7 380.6 157-1
S207.2 357-3 99.0
258-3 359.6 111.0
24 .6 355-3 2/ 110.2
245.1 339.9 / 110.9
3/ 229.0 2/ 323.9

Fired-cured


A.


9.9
9.0
13.4
16. 4 .
24.6
1;i

.A


181.4 284.9 120.0 10.3
141.6 249.2 65.3 9.5
183.9 253.6 69.0 14.1
184.6 256.1 2 76.3 .17.1
179.8 244.6 3/ 76.1 23.4
3/ _16.5 3/ 228.3
Dark air-cured


59.3
65.6
74.4
64.0
65-3
/ 60.5


9,5-39 17.7 29.6
94 : 21.9 _31.9
L i. -; 15 7 35-7
9*2"" 4 : 17.9 31-5.
.i943 2 17-0 34.4
'.9. 44.. i/ 20.1 /- 32.1
:.'ype".6 36 '
p5-9 15.8 27.0
:: 17,5 30-1.
:i 13.6 35.0
~ 2 14 .9 29.8
1. 9 ,9. 28.0:
'..9 : 4/ 12.5 3/ 25-5
6#or'a.f. -type 3-7 :
356. -9` 2.8
o 3!1 3.6
: ; *; 2 3-7
.: 14o 4 2.
k: e 'i :-'ii :!: i' i ta ': : ;, ., aS


95-7
108.1
106.0
-99.2
95-3
2/ 95.6
47-3
53.8
51.4
49.3
51-.4
-/ 52.2
42.8
47.6
48.6
44.7
38-9
2/ 3S.o

5.6
6.7
.6.0
5-2


37.1
33-7
42.0
34.0
34.8


17-9
15.1
19.9
14.9
19-3

16.6
1-2.6
18.8
16.7
13.4


r..
.:i
..": i
2. 1i


8-9
7.7
12.0
15.2
27.2


891
7-5
11.4
15.5
24.9


9o2
7 6
11 57
13.7
.. 294


2.6 1.:.9
3.0 9,5
353 1
.3 24






CIGAR TOBACCO, TYPES 111-?2

Larger Production Indicated;
Stocl-s and Sun.olles Lo.wer

The Sentember 1 indicated production of all cigar tobaccos in this '::ii
country. is 113.5 million pounds, 9 percent more than the 109.g-million-
ound cro, ~roTmwn in 19, The '1944i"r.odUnction is above 1943 for all tyvnes :
and in all major nroducihg areas exceDt in Georgia and Florida. By indlvidua3;
classes and ty es the indicated 19q44 reduction estimates are: Filler.-'5. .t
million rounrs, binder 55.1 million pounds, and wrarnier 10.6 million-noouimdn' n 'f:-
Ty-re 62 is the only tyne to show a decline belo" 1943. In general the .
weather has been favorable in moqt cigar tobacco nrdducine areas and the
prospective yield of 1, 371 ounds ner acre (all tynes) is greater by about.; ',:
5 percent. than the average of l, 5'8 pounds for the 5-year period, 1935-39''-
Total stocks of domestically grown cigar tobaccos in the hands of manufac-':.::.
turers and.dealers on,0ctober 1, 1944, are exnected:to be about 276 million;
pounds, 15.million leps than on-October 1, 19q4. Of the separate classes,i :!
stocks of cizar filler and binder are expected to b' smaller, but in the
case of the wraoner ty-nes, a slight increase in stocks is indicated.

Because of the increase in the 1944 cron, the overall sunTly situatf.
for eigar tobaccos is. About the same as a year ago." The current prbd.8.tiq
of 11.5 million pounds, nlus estimated carry-over of 276 3 million dounis4
.zives qn esti-nated total sunnly -of 394.9 million nolinds for the 1944-45
eason. The -unaly s-ituation, however, is somewhat, different for the :
indl-idual- ty-nes and classes. Over a period of several years, there has
been a .substantial reduction in .the sunDly of filler and binder tobacco
the present surely is low in relation to nrobable disa-oeraance. The :
uunnly of wranper, on the other hand, has gradually increased, and present
'stocks annear adequate for anticipated needs. A substantial increase i..
-cirar filler and binder tobacco reductionn in 1945 -a-nears to be'justifi:.

Holdin.-s of foreign-grown cigar leaf in the .United States on Jui.al7
mountingne to 26.7 million pounds, were slightly above those of a year
Stocks in nosse-sion.of manufacturers and dealers at the beginning of t1
marketing year (October 1) are not expected to change greatly from the. .L'!
.25.6 million Dounds (farm-sales weight) reported on October 1, 194. 3
-*ororortions of the total represented by the-various tynes will have ch
*to a considerable extent, however. Stocks of Cubag probably will be 1
'than a year ago, whereas stocks of Sumatra and Philinnine leaf will he':W
lower, Sumatra stocks renorted.as held by domestic manufacturers and .t
dealers in July totaled 4 million rounds, a- reduction of slightly less t
2 million pounds during the preceding 12 months., Stocks of Sumatra in.1
'country are sufficient to last .through most of 1946, although a'conside
ro-ortion of present' holdings are not considered suitable for use;:by j
American cigar manufacturers under normal conditions. Stocks of Philiif
tobacco in this. country are nractically exhausted. Holdings on J'ily 1 .':-
amounted to only 1l5,000 nounds compared-'with. 617,000-'ounds a year.', e




I." _.
-. .;
*"' '^^^^^B



4,,. .4 .. ... .i .,,






TS-30 21 -

Domestic Consumption of Cigars at Low Level; .
Military Requirements Substantial

Domestic consumption of cigars, as indicated by sales of revenue
stamps, probably reached the peak for the war period during the 12 months :
ended June 30, 1942, when a total of 6.1 billion were withdrawn, the highest
since 1930. Since that time the trend in consumption within the United State
largely because of labor difficulties in cigar factories and large shipments
to the armed services abroad, has been downward. Withdrawals during the 12- .:
month period ended June 30, 1914, totaled slightly less than 5 billion, a de-.-
cline of 19 percent from the preceding year. Consumption in the United Stat-
during this period was at the lowest level in ever a decade and only slight-
above the depression low of 1932-33. During the first T months of the orese:
calendar year, withdrawals totaled 2.7 billion, a decline of 420 million or
nearly 14 percent below the corresponding period of 1943. Withdrawals of 356
million during July 1944 were almost 17 percent below July 1943- Inasmuch ar
tax-paid withdrawals do not include the large volume of tax-free cigars going
to the armed forces abroad, tax-paid withdrawals arE not an -ccurate measure
of cigar production in the factories of this country during the war period.
If these tax-free cigars were added to the number cons-umed domestically, it
S is probable that indicated-production would show a decline considerably less
than the decline indicated by tax-paid withdrawals.

During the past 1S.months, as indicated by Internal Revenue figures,
f... there has been a definite trend toward higher-priced cigars. The data indi-
i cate that the decrease in consumption is altogether in th; low-priced groups,
some of which have completely disappeared from the n.:rkets. For each of the
8 months of 1944 for which comparable data on production by classes are avail
S able, classes A, B, and C, have shown declines from the sane months of the
previous year. During July 1944, these classes showed declines of 41 percent
59 percent, and 39 percent, respectively. On the other hand classes D, E, F,
and G, all higher-priced cigars, showed increases ranging from 53 to 339 per-
S cent. This shift has been brought about largely because of the inability of
consumers to obtain lower-priced cigars. Prinprily as result of higher
l... costs of labor and raw materials, producers have concentrated on the produc-
tion of higher-priced cigars.

Domestic consumption of scrap chewing, the only other important trade
outlet for cigar leaf tobacco, has increased.under war conditions and is now
at the highest level in many years. Production, as reported by the Bureau of ..
Internal Revenue, during the fiscal year ended June 30, 1944, amounted to
52.9 million mounds, an increase of 4 percent over the 5^1.8 million produced
during the corresponding. period a year earlier. Although consumption is still
on the upgrade, the rate of increase is definitely slowing down. June 1944
Production of 4.5 million pounds was an increase of 103,000 pounds or a little.
over 2 percent over June 1943. There was-a 7 percent increase for the 6-mont.,.
as':: period ended June 30, 1944, as compared with the corresponding period a year
earlier.


. ..:... .





SE~PGr -1944


- 22 -


Table 5.- Cisar t c-crcc s: Domestic supn-ies, disappearance, and season
a__ _er ge price a'.c-rage 1'3-';39, arnupll 1/____
S: isap- :


Type and year


: Produc-
Cai


Stocks
Oct. 1
-d


Total
sup p1


: Miii in 'Mill ion Million


Total filler, tres 1i-44 -
191 : .......................
1941 ......................
1i 0L ..................
19453 ,/ ...................:
19 '-' ......................:
Perns'lva.ni seedile-a, type li -:
Average 19 -.5- 9 ..............
19 0 ......................:
iq4i ......................:
19-2 ...................... :
194 143 ................... :
l94U ...................... :
Miami Valley, tSpes 42-4 -4
Aver ge 19 9 ................
191 ........................ :
1941 ......................:
19 2 ...................... :
1i94 .,, ................... .
1944 ...................... :
Total binder. t-oes 51-56

19 4r ......................:
1941 .......................
1942 ......................:
1943 / ....................:
194 ......................:
Connecticut Valley brcaileaf,
t:pe 51 -
A-v ra- e 1935-39 ...............
191v) ......................
1941 ...................... :
1942 .......................:

1944 ........
Connecticut Valley Havana seed, :
t:'-e 52 :
Average 19 35-39 ..............:
1940 ...................... :
19l1 ......................
1942 ...................... :
1943 3/ ................... :
1944 ....................... :


poun ds


66.6
71 .7


4/ 52.8

37.6
5'0'.1
57.7
41.6
39.6
!/ 47.3


15.2
16.5
13.7
12.0
5.5


67.9
61.6
55.7
51.4
4/ 55.9
5---9


12.3
12.S
10.4
10.7
h/ 11.7


9.7
13.8
13.4
12.7
1..5
4/ 12.4


: pearance:
: year :
: begin- :
: ing :
: Oct.
Million


pound s prund s pounds

14:. 7 215.2 0:.
157.0 22'.- 61.7
166.7 220.3 0 o.S
153.b 201.0 5/ 610


I/ 140.0


99.1i
106.0
114.3
122.9
109.6
102.2


53 -5

42.7
45,.
4';.0
5/ 37.3


136.0

137.3
12t.6b
5/ 122.0


33.0
27.5
23.3
26.1
22.3
5/ 24.2


25.9
24.5
25.5
29.6
29.0
25.9


5/ 192.3

136.7
1551
15.1
172.0

1 4.2
r/ 155.4

s?.7


55.1

5/ 4.3


2053-.9

193.5
1 78 .0
5/ 177.1


44.g
39.3
36.1
36.5
55.0
U 5.9

35.6
38.3
33.9
42.3
40.5
5/ 38.3


41. 1


if 42.1


average
price
per
poaun


11.9
12.4


13.2



13.2
13.7
18.6


19 .
l6.4
12.6
11 .'~
I'o


67.2
t.O. 4
66.9
/ 56.0u



13.11
16.5
10.0
14.2
5/ 8.8



10.9
12.8
9.3
13.3
5/ 14.6


14.5
16.9
20.3
30.2



18.4
21.0
22.0
26.0
40.0



18.7
21.7
24.0
26. h
37.6


Continued -


Y







Table 5.- -'0igar tobaccoS&- Domestic supplies, disanpe rance, and season
-average price, avegge 1235539, annual 1940-44 1/ Continued
: Disap- :


-- Type and year
, :. t:
p...


: Produc- :
: tion


: Million
S: pounds
k and Pennsylvania Ha'va :
-tpe 53 -
a'l935-39 .......... 1.3
b .................... ... 2.0
........................: 2.2
.............. .... .. 1.9
-1. 13 3/i .................: 1.2
L ...; ................. .:. 1/ 1.4
im A-Wisconsin, tyoe 54 :
S 1935-39 .............: 14.6
9 .... ........................ -0.4
20.4
S .......................: 15.4
19 ...... ...............: 13.8
44 3 / -. .. .:...": 13.4
.4 .... ...................: 4l 135.
n:e.Wisconsin,'tyoe 55 -
aogb 1935-39 ............... 11.2
....................... : 17.0
9 ? ..........................: 1'.9
.............. .. .: 6.1
l 3_/ .................... 14.4
.. ................. / 15.6
and- Florida sun-grown,



,......................: .8
1.3


S ..... ... .... .....: .2
S.......................: .2
Snapper, types 61-62 -
e 1935-39 ...............: 9.2
S. 9.5


o .. i. .i ii. .
........................:
....................
9.....................
$ieu't Valley shade-grown, :

935-39 ................ :

..... ..... ........ ..... .
.: ., ... ... ..5 .. .,...* ,
..' :; "- ..9. .. ... ." "
[ 'Ij : .i k ., *-' -B'A W ':. :...:" ,,,


10.1
9.2
10.0
' 10.6


Stocks : pearpnce: Average
Ot 1 Total : year : price
Oct. 1
/ : supply : begin- : per
b ning : pound
__ Oct. :
Million Million Million
pounds pounds pounds Cents


2.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
1.F
5/ 1.7

53.1
13.6
39.z4
35.6
36.1
5/ 36.2



I3.7
42.0
36.3
5/ 3.5


1.2
1.7
1.6
1.1
3/ *5
10.1
12.9
11. .7
12.7
12.3
5/ 14.3


3.5
5.2
5.3
4.3
3.0
I/ 3.1

67.7
64.0
54.8
49.4
49.5
5/ 50.0

43,4
53.6
6o.6

50.7
5L9.1


3.0
2.6
2.4
1-.3
5_/ *7

19.3
22.4
21.8
21.9
22.3
5/ 24.9


1.1
2.1
2.4
3.0
/ 1.3


20.6
24.6
19.2
13.3
5/ 13.3


12.3
9.9
is.6
21.8S
5/ 17.2



1.3
1.0
1.3



9.0
10.7
9.1
9.6
5/ 8.0


io.6
12,.0 '
12.9
13-.
19.8


8.8
8.5
9.6
16.2
22.5


.11.0
11.7
14.6
16.4
25.3



13.4
S14.5
17.4
22.0


76.2 :.


132.1
159.1p


6.5 7.3 13.8 6.3 7.
.5.5 9.8 15-3 7.4 o80.
6.4 7.9 14.3 6.3 .113,-A
5.6 13.6 6.o Io0 &
6.3 7.6 13.9 5/ 5-1 '. 65
:. 3 7.1 5 s 5/ 16.1 :
... : .. \j;


.






:. *
Table 5.- Cigar tobaccos: Domestic supplies, disappearance, and seadorni
average price, average a935-39, annual 194o0-44 /- Continued
Di sap- :
S: : pearance: A
Stocks
SProduc- stocks Total year : P
Type and year tion Oct. 1 supply begin-
tion supply begin-
:2/ : : ning
:_____ _______ __ Oct.
MiNI Million Million Million Millio
Sounds pounds pounds pounds
Georgia-Florid. shade-grown,
type S2 ::
Average 1935-39 .............. 2.7 2.8 5-5 2.7
19 c ......................: 4.o 3.1 7.1 3.3 3-`
19cl 3.7 7.g. 7.5 2.8 ,.:;:
1911 ...................... 3.7 38 7.5 2.8 *..
1942 ......................: 3.6 4.7 -8.3 3.6
1943 3J ................. 3.7 4.7 8.4 5/ 2,9. 'i::
1944 ....................... 3. 8.3
1 /- .. 3,7 4.7 8.4 / .2,9
19i4 B/3 -3 5-5 9 -9

Slj arm-sales weight. Rounded type figures do not check, in all cases, to.
previously published because of rounding to add to the total for the class. .,
no case is the difference more than one noint. ...
2/ Stocks for types 56 and 62 are as of July 1.
Preliminary.
Indicated September 1.
J/ Estimated.



1 .,j
)..*-* ^l'
,.:.".:i-^ I
:.2L
*'* "'."- i.


.. .iil



S41



JI
:WI.i



Yi:;:
**,:i
,,: : *' .
** *. ,.



* i. ., .. .*.* .. ^ */. ....... ... ..
.. ...~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~ : ,. .. .. ,,.. ,,,@..


.1.


- d4 -


i

..i






tible 6.- Tcbacco: Average yield per acre by types, United States, 1920-44
..- .e .^ :tT Fire-cured. Dr ar-cukrd: Al11
c... ed: cigarJ.
.. 6Tye_. 789 766 7 20 819 796 755 1,25
t e Type T Tp ype Type: Type: Type e types




..".. 87 754 .5 611 7e95 828 855 845 881 579 1.277 |
.... 39 6 824 W 811 81 0 83 859 .. 693 726 1,11 typ
63O. 85770 i -6 93 59 93 770 1,18


722 872 '792 795 785 so '880 827 880 775 1,182.:
S..5. 8 39 .-765 660 798 795 825 782 830 750 1,0o4g

.ll-.. :98 798 778 761 784 780 713 80 778 784. 1,192.
...': 6 8 806 823 751 767 776 775 906 850 795 1,270
., :699 832 .84 -793 810 799 96 905 851 802 1,173 ..
,... 50 731 818 .'9005 749 7l4 646 722 649 821- 1,152 .
...660 g 8 66o .703 753 759 750 76o 0 o 692 1,182
... 691 807 750 760 842 8h0 850 850 840 810 1,182.
),


g...: 733 782 677 720 812 759
`-...: 756 740 560 615 757 700
~ ..: .64 845 730 765 812 804
S:0... ~05 740 775 640 794 779
...-: '797 753 600 760 sol 657
..: 22- 831 -720 820 895 S56
IS ..,.. f:-. .


78 7
745
800
775
740
875'


811 824 660 1,197-
784 785 585 1,170
795 880 650. 1,228 ,.
799 825 5 5 1.142
783 740 720 1,122
893 890 800 --1,322
,,,,:


..: 76. .839" -769 810 814 796 829 844 838 844 1,308
:'....: -928 794 775 870 821 795 s4o 839 845 900 -1,330
..:: 790 -729 820- 770 o05 761 730 735 700 780 1,385. i
g.: s 87 -- 907 650 790 S46 817 850 920 900 795 1,257
866 833 780 710, 726 7e4 4 75 Qoo 870 7o8 1,204.i
S 22 931 S20 910 872 S24 .850 ..?5. .275. 975 1,365' ;
.,': '989 -989 736 876 951 933 875 9.93 951 61- 1,35.9:-
.25 1,42 850 835 925 SR4 g5 927 .g5 '925 i,51 ..
i90,5 987 775 895 .950 929 900 978 975 850 .1438
.t 62,- 9g8 7h0 975 .995. 962 900 1,064 1,0;30 '900 -1,328-:.
N ...953 996 540 800 979 959 900 1,019 -950 780 1,352.,
.I1,058 939 775 875 910 933 825 975 925 850 1,371. "'

|fYL;8, from First Annual Report on Tobacco St--tistics; 1929-40. nnu.
ateo 'Statistics, 1942; 1941-44, from reports of the Bureau of
i.: nomnics, Crop Reporting Board.


kzgv~~ 3 1dicataon.
e &!...... f5... .* .*....;.
"0;," O:i

S ., ...


-A



2





Manufactured tob o


Smoking ...............:
Plug ...................:
Twist ...................:
Fine-cut ................:
Scrap chewing ..........
Snuff ..................


* 1942
1,000
Pounds


174,075
54,300
6,069
5,083
49,608o
41,c33


1943 : Change 1942-43:1943-44- i Oia
1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds Percent pounds pounds 'Per


7.2
8.7
4.3
10.8
4.4
5.3


163,750
57,423
6,338
4.,56
50,794
41,749


161,609
59,001
6,327
4,533
51,796
43,178


142,201
60.930
6,309
4,301
52,881
42,452


SEPTEMBER 1944 26 .



Table 7.- Tax-paid withdrawals of tobacco products in the United States, :j
calendar years 1942 and 1943, fiscal years:1942-43 aind.1 43-44 /

S Calendar year : Fiscal year .
Products **
Produc1942 1943 Change 1942-43; 1943-44' Change

:Mi1 ions Millions Percent Millions Millions Percent

.Small cigarettes ........: 235:840 257,741 + 9-3 -244,828 258,272 + 5,'
Large cigarettes ........ 3 6 2/+113.1 4 10 2/+18 ..
Large bigars ............: 6,207 5,228 15.8 6,003 4;879 1S .
Small cigars ............. 133 128 3.8 130 143 + 10..
Snuff 3/................ : '1,161 43,180 + 4.9 41,907 42,731 + 2-4..9
Manufactured tobacco 3/..: 280,524 262,456 6.4 265,813 250,412 5.8. .

17 Tax-paid withdrawals include products from Philippine Islands and Puerto Rico0. '
Ifter January 1942 tax-paid withdrawals from Philippine Islands are not included. I;:"
2/ Based on actual, not rounded figures.
3/ Thousand pounds. '


Table 8.- Production of manufactured tobacco in the United States,
calendar years 1942 and 1943, and fiscal years 1942-43 and 1943-44 i

: Calendar year : Fiscal year


- 4 -

* + ,









: ;.... '.4935-39= 0oo) ___ .::: '
a garetin Cigars Manufactured. T&tal
,* .-. *- .
-jo"r O
S 29 143 124 72
28 162 116 75 .
32 1 4o 113 74
.: 34 1. l42 123 77 ..
-41 441 121 8 "4
: 45-- 135 121 83-4
; : 51. 131 1.SO 5 .
S 57 13 120 g.8
:i 62- j 132, 115 .90
: 67 19 112 92 :', "1-i
76' 13 110 96 .
-6 : l 108 93 ,
72 106 107 87 ....
66 89 102 79 ...
t 71 86 100 80
-' .: 80 91 101 87 :
s. 6 93 100 o.
S 97. 101 102 99 3
& 103. 14 99 103
S 10"; 1i00 100 102
:. 110 .-103 100 lo6
103 10
r, *;.il5 .1P3 100 109
gi13 1 11 99 120
1 :1-9:. 94 131
164 99 89 133-

S 155 86 5 124 .
S13692' 77 114 .i
S923 73 117
89 73 126
9 80 124 .
79 121 j"
-. .. 9 o 14- -i -eid
R:?' "e ir: 9 .7e.9ve BIIlletin* .. ,
4...i, ... .,..
,, .. .... o1o.
: : .i:;- I ..i:' .I.... "..o9
710:.i ,:' ." :.... : : .. .. E. '
pt:: : .. : 7, H

7... ......
M ... MI I.:..
...ili., :;4 .:.. ;.. ,.. .,. .,. .. .. :




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

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