Tobacco situation

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Material Information

Title:
Tobacco situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
United States -- World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Frequency:
four no. a year
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Tobacco industry -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
serial   ( sobekcm )

Notes

Citation/Reference:
Predicasts
Citation/Reference:
American statistics index
Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
TS-1 (jAN. 1937) - TS-174 (Dec. 1980).
Numbering Peculiarities:
Issues for <March 1938>-1939 called also spring outlook issue.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Sept. issues for 1941-<1961> called also outlook issue for the next year; e.g. Sept. 1943 called 1944 outlook issue.
Numbering Peculiarities:
Issues TS-67-<TS-71> lack chronological designation.
Issuing Body:
Dec. 1980 issued by the Economics and Statistics Service, USDA.
Issuing Body:
Issued by: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, 1954-Mar. 1961; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, June 1961-Dec. 1977; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, 1978-<Dec. 1979>; U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economics and Statistics Service, -Dec. 1980.
General Note:
Previously classed: A 36.94:, A 88.34/2:, and A 93.25:
General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
"Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board."

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 001233689
oclc - 04015633
notis - AFY4099
lccn - 78643654 //r81
issn - 0040-8344
sobekcm - AA00005303_00001
Classification:
lcc - HD9134 .A375
ddc - 338.1/7/3710973
System ID:
AA00005303:00001

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Tobacco outlook & situation

Full Text

A3. UITLD STATES DiDTART.7NT OF AG3 TURE .
Bureau of A-ricultural Ecor Lnic1i
"J sh i ntcn ;

TS-1 i .... -. January 1937


TE TOBACCO SITUATION W



This is the first issue of The Tobacco Situation, one
of r ner series of cor..odity situation reports in:ugux7r.te'd by
the Bureiu of Akricultural Ecrnomics. The Tobacco Situation,
tentatively scheduled for release in Janury, HMrch, July and
Se-_tenber, will -rovide current inforr-.tion on chances in the
factors which affect the de.mand for and the su.--l- ?l nd -rices
of tobacco. Cortnents, criticisms, ?nd su-cestions on the present
form of this reort are welcome.


Sis.r.ary

The tobacco situation in 1933-37, as contrasted rith 1935-35, is

characterized by reduced su-Plies, an increasing rpte of consurntion of many

tobeco products, somer:hat ljwer exrorts during the first few months of the

aatketinc season, and higher prices to rro ers. The higher prices reflect

both reduced su-7lies and increased de~e~nd. The increased demand for tobacco

products, as evidenced by increased consuianTition without a reduction in retail

prices, is the result of increpscd consumer -iurchasingr power and the addition

of new consumers of tobacco -rolucts. The most marked increase in domestic

consumption has taken -l.-ce in cij-rettes.

The effects of the increased de-;an, on prices :'aid for the two r'ost

important ty pes of cirrrette tobacco hove been ccnsidere'ly different. In

the case of flue-cured, prices have been only sli'lhtly higher thnn those of

last year, the increase in domestic consli.irtion beinCi lar.:ely offset b.y a

relatively lar-e su-.-ly and a sli-tly lo--er forei,jg de-mand. On the other

hand, there has been a rnrked increase in the -'rice of Eurley, since supplies

have been rinterially reduced -nd forei:-n dc.mand is of rclativel; slight im-

p.., ortance.






TS-1


Stocks at the beginning of the 1937-38 marketing year will

probably be further reduced, since consumption during 1936-37 will exceed

production for most types. The higher prices being paid to farmers for

their tobacco, however, will probably stimulate increased plantings, although

the effect of possible interstate compacts for control of acreage and

production can not as yet be foreseen.

Flue-cured, Types 11-14

The supply of flue-cured tobacco for the 1936-37 season is practically
the same as the 1935-36 supply. Stocks in the hands of dealers and manu-
facturers on July 1, 1936, amounted to a farm-sales weight equivalent of
871,000,000 pounds compared with 753,000,000 pounds the previous year. The
increase in stocks was largely offset, however, by a decrease in production
from 811,000,000 pounds in 1935 to 695,000,000 pounds. Consequently, the
supply of 1,566,379,000 pounds is only 2,616,000 pounds larger than the
1935-36 supply.

Total disappearance (domestic consumption plus exports) of flue-cured
tobacco usually increases in years when he supply increases, and decreases
when the supply is smaller. With this year's supply being practically the
same as that of last year, it is unlikely that disappearance will greatly
exceed the 1935-36 disappearance of 692,500,000 pounds. Increased domestic
consumption may be at least partly offset by lower exports.

The chief domestic use for flue-cured tobacco is in the manufacture
of cigarettes, the consumption of which reached a record high of around
150,000,000,000 during 1936. Tax-paid withdrawals during the first
11 months of 1936 were 12.1 percent above withdrawals during the same period
in 1935. The increase has been even more marked in recent months, the
July-November withdrawals for 1936 being 13.4 percent above those of last year.
The wholesale price of the popular cigarette brands was recently raised from
$6.10 to $6.25 per thousand. Although this will probably result in higher
retail prices in many localities, the growth in consumption is likely to
continue.

Some flue-cured tobacco is also used in the manufacture of smoking and
plug chewing tobacco, the consumption of which has not changed significantly.
Production of smoking tobacco during the first 10 months of 1936 was less
than one-half of 1 percent greater than during the first 10 months of 1935;
production of plug chewing tobacco for the same period declined by 3.2 percent.





iS-1


Total exports of flue-cur-d tobacco from the United States during the
5-month period, July T.ovcmbcr 1'?3,, w. 173,115,000 pounds, 3.3 percent
less than for the same period in 1935. Increpses in exports to China and
other countries wer: not Sufficicnt to offset a 15.) percent decrease in
exports to th.e ULnit.-d Kingdom, the rmost important foreign market for United
States flue-cjurd tobacco. Exports tc the United K'inTdowi r.-.chcd a record
high level in 1 .,-36 becaLuse of depleted stocks in ti.ht country and it is
probable that exports during 173.-37 will be more in line with the curre-nt
rate of consuLiption in the Unit.-d Iingdoni.

With approximately ', percent of the crop already marketed by the end
of December, the average price for flue-clured tobacco vwas 22.2 cents per
pound compared with a season's average of 2_ cents in i935. Although that
part of the crop still to be nmar-.,:-tcid ill probably bring lower prices
because of lower quality, the- season's averagee will not be mat rially below
the ave-raee to data.

Higher prices for the 1l936 crop as cora-:--red with those for 1?35 will
probably stimulate increa-sed pll.i tintgs this y&er. ii.onthly prices, by types,
are given below for this and the 2 previous marketing years.


Flue-cared tobacco: Price per pound received for warehouse. sales
in Georgia, northh Caroliiin, South Carolina, -and Virginia,
by types and months, 19?_-35 to 2'3'-37



Type and year : Au. : Sept. : Oct. : [ov. : Dec. Jan. :Feb.

:Cfnts Cennts Cents Cents Ce nts Cents Cents
Type 11 -
1934-35 .......: 225.2 27.e 32.3 2.1 1S.7 16.0 ?.0
?5-3o ....... : .1.7 18.1 2.0 21.3 17.4 14.4 .5
1936-37 ......: --- 24.6 23.5 23.3 19.4
Type 12 -
1934-35 ....... : 6. 27. 35 2 .1 1.4
1935-3" ......1: 15.2 18.9 23.5 20.3 15.5
1 3 -37 ....... 21.5 24.9 21..? 1 .6
Type 13 -
193L:-35 ....... : 24.1 21.0 19.0
135-36 ....... 21.7 7.9 16.4
-37 .......: 23.2 21.1 14.5
Typo 14 -
1934-35 .......: 13.7
1935-3. ....... : 1..
i?36-37 ...... 21.0




TS-1


Burley, iype 31

With the 1936 production of 217,000,000 rounds the smallest since 1927,
and stocks of 681,000,000 pounds the smallest since 1931, the total supply of
Burley tobacco this year is 898,000,000 pounds. This is a decrease of
more than 93,000,000 pounds from last year's supply, and the third successive
year in which supplies have decreased. On the other hand, disappearance has
increased every year for the last 4 years and will undoubtedly show another
increase in 1936-37.

The domestic use of Burley is in cigarettes and in smoking and chewing
tobacco. Exports during the first part of the present marketing season have
been above those of last year, but foreign demand for Burley constitutes a
relatively small part of the total demand. There has been no significant
change in the consumption of smoking or chewing tobacco in recent years, the
increased use of Burley being due to expanded cigarette consumption. From
1920 to 1930, cigarette consumption increased on the average by 7,500,000,000
per year. It fell off in 1931 and 1932, but has again been on the up-grade
in the last 4 years, with an average annual increase of about 11,700,000,000.

If the upward trend in Burley consumption continued at the present
rate, the stocks on hand on October 1, 1936, would be exhausted in
a little over 2 years. Since tobacco is usually stored for 2 years or more
before it is used in the manufacture of cigarettes, the 1936 crop of Burley
would be the only crop aged sufficiently to fulfill tnis requirement by
the end of 1938 when present stocks would be largely exhausted. The 1937
crop, which may be large, will still be new cro; tobacco and hardly suitable
for use in 1938. The 1936 crop is small compared with present consumption,
and when considered relative to the probable future demand it appears even
smaller.

As a result of this situation, unusually high prices have been paid for
Burley this season. The Kentucky warehouse sales report, giving total sales
in that State from the opening of the markets on December 7 and 3 to the end
of the month, re orts an average price of 40.7 cents per pound paid to growers
of Burley tobacco. The average price for the 1935 crop was 19.1 cents.

Although prices were well maintained during the first week in January,
with new high levels being attained on many markets, they have since declined
rapidly. Prices for good cigarette grades have shown the least declines,
however, and it is probable that the season average ,rice will be between
35 and 40 cents per pound, which would be a record high. The high prices
being paid will probably result in increased plantings this year.

Burley tobacco: Price per pound received for warehouse sales in
Kentucky, by months, 1934-35 and 1936-37


Year : Dec. Jan. Feb. : Mar.

: Cnts Cents C-nts Cents

1934-35 .........: 10.5 17.4 12.9 13.4
1935-36 .........: 20.2 18.3 12.4 7.2
1936-37 ......... : 40.7





TS-1


Burley tobacco:
markets


- 5 -


Average price per pcund received at specified
in Kentucky, eason 1920-55 and 1936 to
January 9


S1936 : Season's -verage 1/
Market to : : : : : :
: Jan. 9 : 1935 : 1934 : 1933. : 1932 : 1931 1930
SCents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

Lexington ....: 45.49 19.78 18.56 12.31 13.37 10.34 16.96
Shelbyville ...: 39.27 18.86 16.81 10.17 11.18 7.33 14.32
Maysville .....: 32.77 16.34 16.57 9.98 12.33 S.85 15.22
Carrollton ....: 35.65 19.90 16.01 8.64 11.63 8.26 12.28
Cynthiana .....: 46.19 18.70 19.12 10.11 11.68 8.91 16.18
Danville ...... 41.71 19.25 17.01 10.97 11.5 8.45 16.73
Harrodsburg ...: 43.29 18.59 18.16 10.9 12.25 .99 15.78
Mt. Sterling ..: 40.55 18.41 17.96 9.97 13.26 9.15 16.45
Paris ..........: 46.2 20.50 20.17 12.10 14.13 1C.41 17.44
Richmond ......: 42.52 18.65 17.51 10.50 13.84 9.21 16.46

Season's average 1930-35, compiled from report of R. IM. Barker Tobacco Company,
Carrollton, Ky.; 1936, compiled from Tobacco, Vol. CIV, Uo. 2.

1/ Marketing season usually begins in early December.

Maryland, Type 32

Production of Maryland tobacco for 1936 is estimated at 29,6,00,000
pounds, the largest on record. Although stocks fiv-res are not yet available
for January 1, the beginning of the marketing year, it is probable that they
will not differ greatly from last years stocks of 38,6c.0,0C00 pounds. Total
supply may be a little larger than last year's record supply of 66,500,0'0'
pounds.

Domestic consumption of Maryland tobacco has been increasing steadily
as a result of the expansion in the output of cigarettes. Some use of this
type of tobacco in short filler cigars also has been reported recently.

Although exports during the first 11 months of 1936 were 28.8 percent
above 1935 exports for the same months, the;,- were still far below exports of
pre-depression years.

In view of the large supply and low foreign demand, the price outlook
for Maryland tobacco is rather uncertain, depending upon the extent of
increase in domestic demand. In view of the strength in tobacco prices in
general, it seems probable that prices will be maintained. For the past 4
years, average prices of Maryland tobacco have been markedly steady, showing
only a slight upward tendency.





S-!i


Marylani tobacco: Price opr pound received for warehouse sales,
b.- month, 1935-36 1/


Year :Jan. :eb. :Mar. :Arr. .May :June :July :Aug. :Sept.,Oct. :No'.,. Dec.
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cent Cet Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

1935 : 10.8 12.8 17.5 18.2 20.4 23.1 23.7 22.5 16.6 16.4 12.9 7.9
1936 : 11.3 7.9 5.9 10.6 16.4 18.6 25.2 22.9 20.7 12.8 10.2 6.1



1/ Marketing sea-son begins January 1 of the year following production.

Fire-c-,red, Ty:es 21 24

Total production of fire-cured tobacco this year is estimated at
104,200,0jl' pounds. This is the smallest in many years. Although stocks
this year are smaller than last year, they are still large relative to con-
sumption.

Exports have continued to decline, October and November of 1936 showing
a 36 percent decrease compared with 19J5. Although snuff consumption, the
chief domestic out!-l for fire-cured tobaccos, has been increasing from the
low level of 1935 (J'il;.-:.ove,-ib=r withdrawT .* were 9.5 percent larger in 1936
than in 1935), the ..rincir,-l incre-.se in dor~istic consumption has resulted
from the b::.pr.oi'cts-diver-iorn *,rogrm of the Agricultural Adjustment Adminis-
tration.

Prices on the opening mn.rket.s this ye:r have been somewhat higher than
last year.

Fire-cured tob-.ccc: Prices per po nrd received for warehouse
sales of T:..Te 21 in Virginia cnd Types 22, 23, :.nd 24 in
Xentucky, by months, 1934-35 to 1936-37

TL-pe and year :v. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.
: Cents Cents Cent Cents nt Cents Cents
Type 21-
1934-55 : 14.1 ?12. 12.8 11.6 8.8
1935-36 : 11.1 10.5 11.0 9.8 9.2
1936-37 : 11.3 11.5
Type 22-
1934-35 : 9.2 9.1 7.5 5.8
1935-36 : C.7 7.8 8.1 7.4
1936-37
Type 23-
1934-35 : 8.2 8.1 5.8 4.9
1935-36 : 6.1 6.7 6.7
1936-37
Type 24-
1934-35 : 8.6 .8 7.0 5.1
1935-36 : 6.3 6.3 6.4 5.7
1936-37 : 1/
1/ December sales were small and cre to be included with January sales.


- F -





TS-1


Dark Air-cured, Types 35 37


The 1936 supply of all dark air-erred types is 13 percent less than
last years supply and the lowest in many years, the greatest reductions
being in the supplies of One Suc!-er and Green River, types 35 and 36. The
low supplies have resulted partly from drought-reduced production and partly
from lower stocks.

Although disappearance of these types of tobacco has been on a
declining basis for many years, production during recent years has been less
than disappearance. The production of chewing tobacco, the chief domestic
outlet for these tobaccos, increased less than 1 percent in the first 10
months of 1936 over the same period in 1935.

Exports during the first part of the present marketing year have been
lower, although exports of black fat, of wnich the larger part is One Sucker
and Green River, have increased.

With disappearance this year probably remaining about the same as last
year, and both production and stocks materially reduced, higher prices were
to be expect-e this year corroared with last year. The December price of One
Sucker, type 35, averaged 19.4 cents showing a marked increase over the price
of 6.8 cents for the same month in 1935. The December price of Virginia
Sun-cured, type 37, was 12.5 cents, 3 cents higher than last year.


Dark air-.cured tobacco:
of Types 35 and 36 in


Price p.er pound received for warehouse sales
KenLucky and Type 57 in Virginia, by months,
1934-35 to 193'6-37


Type and year Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.
Cents Cents Cents Cent .lents
Type 35-
1934-35 7.3 7.5 6.1 4.7 2.2
195-36 : 6.8 9.1 8.6 3.8
196-357 : 19.4
Type 36-
1934-55 : 8.1 9. 7.2 5.3
195-36 : 7.2 7.7 7.4 6.
1936-37 1/
Type 37-
1934-35 : 9.3 9.8 9.9 10.0
1935-36 : 9.5 11.2 11.7 11.1
1956-57 : 12.5


1/ December sales were small end are to be included with January sales.




TS-1 .8 -

Cigar Tobc co

The outlook for most ci'ar types continues favorable. Although the
production of 95,000,000 pounds is 9 percent lr-,ur th.rn 1st .re-r's pro-
duction, the total supply is smaller due to rclucci stocks.

Consumption has been greater than production in the -.mst 3 years, and
the same will undoubtedly be true in 193'-37. Ciar withdrawals ircre.sed
6.7 percent during the first 11 months of 1936. The production of scrap
chLevring tobacco for the first 10 months, however, increased only 1.6 percent.




.9


Production, stocss, su -4i, ..'- rice of totecco in the
Unite,. St-.tes, ';, t- ous, 1935 r nd 193

: Production :Stocks, Qct.l : Su 1ly : rice
Tyier _: : : Chan.-e:
: 1335 : 1936 : 19 5 1936 : 1935 : 1936 :1936fra 1935
:* 1935
:Million ilillion 1:illion Million Million Hillion
r: nund-:s jiounds g-oundsnds oounuds ouns pounds recent Cents

lue-cured, 11-14 ......: 811.2 695.1 752.6 871.3 1563. 1566.4 2 .2 20.0
Va. fire-cured,21 .....: 20.4 19.1 30.8 29.9 51.2 49.0 4.3 10.2
Ky.& Tenn.fire-cured,22: 68.9 59.1 14 .6 134.7 217.6 193.8 -10.9 9.0
Ky.& Tenn.fire-cured,23: 25. 23.8 40.5 38.4 66.3 62.2 6.2 7.4
Henderson fire-cured,24: 3.0 2.2 4.0 3.5 7.0 5.7 -18.6 6.4
Burley, 31 ............: 220.9 216. 769.9 681.2 990.9 8 ,. 0 9.4 19.1
Mlaryland, 32 ....... ..: 27.9 29.6 33.6 2/ 33.5 '6.5 2/ 64.6 2.9 18.5
One Sucker, .5 ........: 13.0 11.6 32.7 28.8 45.7 40.4 -11. 3 8.2
Green River, 56 .......: 15.2 11.2 34.3 30.7 49.5 41.9 -15.4 7.3
Va. sun-cured, 37 .....: 2.8 2. .7 2.7 5.5 5.3 3.3 11.0
Pa. seed leaf, 41 .....: 28.2 32.2 99.9 102.1 1iS.1 134.3 4.8 12.0
I:iani Valle;., 42-44 ...: 17.4 13.2 65.3 60.2 33.2 73.4 -11.8 7.5
Ga.& Fla. suri--rorn, 45: 1.2 .3 2.7 2.2 3.9 3.0 -23.1 13.5
Conn.Val.Broadlef, 51.: 10.7 13.1 35.5 34.1 46.2 47.2 4 2.2 17.6
Conn.Val.Havana seed, 52: 6.7 8.0 30.8 26.1 37.5 34.1 9.1 16.9
IT.Y.& Pe.Hav7rna seed,533: .7 1.1 2.0 2.0 2.7 3.1 +14.8 11.2
S. 'Jisconsin, 54 ......: 8.4 10.4 73.6 61.4 82.0 71.8 -12.4 7.3
IT. "Jisconsin, 55 ......: F6.9 7.9 41.5 33.1 48.4 41.0 -15.3 7.2
Conn.Val.shade--'rown,61: 5.7 6.3 8.7 6.8 14.4 13.6 5.6 75.0
Ga.& Fla. shade- Torrjn,62: 2.1 2.6 .. 7 4.2 6.8 '.8 .0 65.0

V Flue-cured stocks, July 1; lj.aryland, Jani,-ri 1 of :yc2r followlin.- production.
2/ PrelirninrLy" estiriLate.


Tax-oaid v.ithdr-.aals of to'unco products July-iiover5ter, 9nd -)roduction of
manufactured tobacco in the United Stites, July-October 1935 and. 1936 i1

T,.x-Kpaid vwithdrr3 ls :: Production
: July-Tovc.ber : : J;ul;-October
Products : Chnn:e ::IInuf!ctured: : : Crne
1935 : 1936 :1933from:: tobacco :1935 : 1936 :19.36fron
: 193 : : 1935
::: : 1,000 1,000
: millions million'ss Percent:: poundss pounds Percent

Lorge ci-,..rs ...: 2,392 2,560 -: 7.0 ::Plu7 ....... 21,754 21,133 2.9
Small ci ars ...: 79 78 1.3 ::Twist ......: 1,964 2,225 413.3
Small cipzrettes:59,401,727 67,336,873 -13.4 ::Fine-cut ...: 1,822 2,012 +10.4
Large ci-erettes: 1 1 .0 :Scrapchewing 15,446 15,876 4 2.8
Manufactured : :
tobacco 2/ ...: 132,414 131,009 1.1 ::Smokin ....: 68,330 66,390 2.8
Snuff 2/ ....... 14,451 15,827 9.5 :

1 Tax-)aid withdrawals include n'rod-acts from, the Phili'-oine Islands and Puerto Rico
2/ Thousand pounds.


-em *........ -.a U L DtA ..-dthlui ::....:= "" '*.......--.-...


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