Emergy Synthesis Perspectives, Sustainable Development and Public Policy Options for Papua New Guinea

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Title:
Emergy Synthesis Perspectives, Sustainable Development and Public Policy Options for Papua New Guinea
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Report
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Creator:
Doherty, Stephen J.
Brown, Mark T.
Murphy, Richard C.
Odum, Howard T.
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Center for Wetlands
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Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
policy
emergy
tourism
forestry
simulation modeling
rainforest
Spatial Coverage:
Papua New Guinea
Coordinates:
-6 x 147

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169 Pages

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University of Florida
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Final Report to
THE COUSTEAU SOCIETY


EMERGY SYNTHESIS PERSPECTIVES,
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND
PUBLIC POLICY OPTIONS FOR
PAPUA NEW GUINEA


Steven J. Doherty and Mark T. Brown

with
R.C. Murphy, H.T. Odum and G.A. Smidi


CFWWR' Publ.iLtion # 93-i"n

Research studies conducted under contract
to The Cousteau Society

Center for Wetlands & Water Resources
University of Florida
Phelps Lab, P.O. Box 116350
Gainesville, Florida 32611-6350
U.S.A.

1993

The Center for
WETLANDS










& WATER
RESOURCES
An Education and Research
Unit of the University of Florida









PREFACE


Among the most important problems humanity faces today are the management of natural resources and
the integration of human and natural processes. There is a need to understand both human and natural
domains, each in the context of the other, and it is important to develop sound management strategies
which acknowledge and promote the vital interconnections between the two.

Traditionally, a reductionist approach to the study of humanity and nature has dominated. By comparison,
much less attention has been given to studying the biosphere at the ecosystem level of organization. It is at
the ecosystem level, however, where many of nature's most important processes occur, where human
benefits are derived and where our impacts fall most severely.

Most regions of the planet have already felt the heavy hand of development. Often such activities
undermine the natural resource base due to a focus on short-term benefits. Too often this approach sets in
motion long-term processes that drastically affect culture and minimize alternatives for sustainability.
There are, though, a few jewels, such as Papua New Guinea, where cultural and natural resources have
not yet been eliminated. These regions are coming under greater external pressure to "develop" along the
same destructive paths seen elsewhere. Consequently, there is an urgent need to protect and manage
wisely the cultural and natural heritage of Papua New Guinea. For these reasons the Cousteaus committed
the "Rediscovery of the World" expeditions to explore, study and document on film the richness of Papua
New Guinea.

Part of this project has been an investigation of Papua New Guinea's wealth in the broadest sense and an
analysis of major economic activities (forestry, fisheries and tourism). Supported by members of The
Cousteau Society, a research team from the University of Florida, USA, working under the direction of
Drs. H. T. Odum and Mark Brown, undertook a substantial research effort to understand the connections
among the human and economic sectors and the natural system. Using energy as a common denominator,
the study compares and analyzes alternative uses of Papua New Guinea's resources in a search for
sustainable strategies.

The research effort has shown that Papua New Guinea is one of the richest countries in the world: its
natural wealth provides people with a quality of life, independence and stability, which provide relative
immunity from the unpredictable fluctuations of external economics and politics.

We hope the insights provided by this report will encourage leaders to implement long-term strategies to
accomplish one of the objectives stated in Papua New Guinea's constitution, ". for Papua New Guinea's
natural resources and environment to be conserved and used for collective benefit of us all, and be
replenished for the benefit of future generations."


Richard C. Murphy
Vice President for Science and Education
Cousteau Society









ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


As part of our effort to evaluate resource management questions in Papua New Guinea, we traveled to
Papua New Guinea in the spring of 1989. Responding to The Cousteau Society 's strong interest in
education, we offered a short course in techniques of resource evaluation and systems modeling at the
University of Papua New Guinea. We would like to express our gratitude to Dr. Patty Osborne of the
Biology Department, University of Papua New Guinea, for his hospitality and the excellent job he did in
organizing our workshop. With out his help we could not have had such an outstanding short course.
Participants in that workshop were a most interesting and enthusiastic blend of students and government
officials and we would like to thank them and wish them well in their endeavors to manage the resources
of their developing nation.


The participants in the short course were: David Coates, FAO, Papua New Guinea; Christopher Hershey,
Melanesian Environment Foundation, Inc., Papua New Guinea; William Asigau, Department of
Environment and Conservation, Papua New Guinea; Charles D. Tenakanai, Fisheries Research-DMFR,
Papua New Guinea; Ana Marikawa, Finance and Planning, Papua New Guinea; Malcolm Leveti, Dept. of
Geography, UPNG; Gavera Arua Rei, Melanesian Environment Foundation, Inc. Papua New Guinea;
Phille P. Daur, Biology Department, UPNG; Monica T. Rau, Forest Research Institute, Papua New
Guinea; Lester Seri, Department of Environment and Conservation, Papua New Guinea; Mary Walta,
Biology Department, UPNG; Tatsio Matsuoka, Department of Biology, UPNG; Anne Bothwell,
Department of Biology, UPNG; Ilaiah Bigilal, Natural History Museum,Papua New Guinea; Harold Ure,
USAJD/Radio Science Project, Papua New Guinea; Mathias Ure, Division of Research and Planning,
Papua New Guinea; Sir Ebia Olewale, Karawane Pty Ltd., Papua New Guinea; Alois Wafy, Department
of Fisheries/Marine Resources, Papua New Guinea; Barbara Brett, Department of Education, Papua New
Guinea; Carrie Turk, Department of Finance and Planning, Papua New Guinea; Pins Piskaut, Department
of Biology, UPNG; Robert Vonole, Department of Education, Papua New Guinea.


We would also like to thank Max Benjamin, owner of the Walindi Plantation on the Island of New Britain,
who provided a wonderful setting and data that allowed us to evaluate tourism. His dive resort was one of
the most ecologically sensitive, low energy, and culturally friendly resorts we have experienced .. not to
mention the most incredible diving we have experienced an. where in the world.








John Furby, company secretary for Burns Philp Limited, Port Moresby, provided travel assistance. Dr.
David Scienceman of New South Wales, Australia, visiting scientist with the University of Florida's
Center for Wetlands & Water Resources, helped with logistical support, initiated contacts and supplied
preliminary data and literature sources. His interest and support are greatly appreciated.


An acknowledgement section would not be complete without recognizing the pivotal role The Cousteau
Society, Captain Jacques-Yves Cousteau, and Jean-Michel Cousteau have played in supporting our
research over the past eight years. Since beginning their series of expeditions titled "Rediscovery of the
World" they have provided funds and logistical support for our research as we accompanied the Cousteau
teams on numerous expeditions. As a result, we have gained much in our understanding of the relation-
ships between humanity and nature and have been able to share our insights with governments and citizens
around the world. We cannot thank the Cousteaus enough for the opportunity they have provided to both
research the complex questions facing humanity and to educate leaders, and future leaders of our water
planet in how we might begin to solve these important questions.









TABLE OF CONTENTS



PREFA CE . .. . . . .... . ... ... .. . ... . i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......... ............... ..... ........ ..... ii

LIST OF TABLES ...... ....................... .......... ...... vi

LIST OF FIGURES.. ..... ..................... .............. viii

1. INTRODUCTION . ........................................... 1-2
Ecological Economics ....... . .................. ...... 1-2
Overview of Papua New Guinea ................................... 1-3
Natural History and Ecological Support Base........ ........ ...... ......... 1-3
Economy ..... ....................... .............. 1-5
Systems View of Papua New Guinea .... ........ .. .. ............ .. 1-7
Study Plan ...... ......... ........ ........... . 1-10

2. METHODS ............ .. ......... ....... ...... 2-2
Step 1: Detailed Energy Systems Diagrams .... ... ........................ 2-2
Step 2: Aggregated Systems Diagrams ... .. ............................. 2-4
Step 3: Solar Emergy E valuation Tables . ... .... ................ 2-5
Step 4: Solar Emergy Indices ... ........ .......................... 2-6
Step 5: Microcomputer Simulation Models . ....... ........ .. 2-16
Step 6: Public Policy Questions .... ......... ................... 2-17

3. RESULTS
Section A: Emergy Synthesis of Papua New Guinea's Resource Base ............... A-1
N national Overview ......... .. ... .................. ........ A-i
Regional Analysis of the Highlands and Lowlands .. ................. A-12
Emergy Evaluation of Indigenous Resource Reserves ...... .. .... A-17

Section B: Subsystems Analyses of Major Rural Production Systems. ............ .. B-i
Forestry in New Britain .......... ........................... B-1
Sago Palm Cultivation in the Gulf Province .......................... B-8
Sweet Potato Farming in a Typical Highland Village ...... . . . B-10

Section C: Rainforest-Land Rotation Model . . . . . . . C-1
Introduction. ........................... . . . C-1
Model Description ..... . . C-1
M odel Simulation ............ ............................ C-9
Discussion .. ............................ ................ C-14










Section D: Emergy Basis for Determining the Carrying Capacity of Tourism. . . D-1
Introduction .................... ...... ....... ......... ... D-1
Results ...... ................. ...... ...... ............ D-8
Discussion ...................... ........... ......... D-21

Section E. Energy, Time and Economic Expectations in a Highland Village . . . E-1
Introduction .... ... ..... .. .. ... ...... .. .. .. ... .... ... E-I
Results ................ ............. ........... ....... E-4
Discussion ..... ..... ...... ....... ........... .......... E-10

Section F: Perspectives on Emergy Support of Indigenous Culture ................ F-
Introduction ............... ........ ..... .......... ....... F-I
Results and Discussion ....................................... F-2

4. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
The Basis for Wealth in Ecologic-Economic Systems ....................... 4-1

Resource Policy Perspectives for Papua New Guinea ........................ 4-3
Solar Emergy Basis for Nation.................................... 4-3
Comparisons with Other Countries ................................ 4-5
International Trade and Balance of Payments ................ . .4-10
Regulauon and Investment Considerations in Forestry Sector ................... 4-15

Tourism Development, Environmental Impact, and the Local Economy ............... 4-17
A Definition for Ecotourism .................................... 4-18


LITERATURE CITED

APPENDIX: Brochure of collaborative workshop titled: Into the Future: Ecology, Economic and Public
Policy in Papua New Guinea. May 5-10, 1990. Co-Sponsored by The Cousteau Society, The
Department of Environment and Conservation and The University of Papua New Guinea.









LIST OF TABLES


Table Page No.

3A-1. Solar energy basis for Papua New Guinea's indigenous resource base, 3A-2
imports and exports in 1987.

3A-2. Summary of major solar energy and monetary flows for Papua New 3A-7
Guinea in 1987.

3A-3. Overview indices of annual solar emergy-use, origin, and economic and 3A-11
demographic relations for Papua New Guinea in 1987.

3A-4. Indigenous renewable solar emergy support for highlands and lowlands 3A-14
regions in Papua New Guinea.

3A-5. Storage of solar emerg. in resource reserves within Papua New Guinea. 3A-19

3B-1. Resource flows supporting rainforest logging in New Britain, Papua New 3B-4
Guinea.

3C-1. Calibration of variables and coefficients for Rainforest-Land Rotation 3C-4
Model (corresponding to systems diagram in Figure C-I).

3C-2. BASIC computer program used in simulation of Rainforest-Land Rotation 3C-6
Model (Figure C-i).

3D-1. Comparative national emergy indices for Papua New Guinea, Mexico and the 3D-12
United States

3D-2. Emergy evaluation of tourist resort on island of New Britain, Papua New 3D-13
Guinea.

3D-3. Emergy evaluation of four star tourist hotel in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (from 3D-15
Brown et al 1992).

3D-4. Comparative emergy indices for tourist resorts in Papua New Guinea and 3D-18
Mexico.

3E-1. Time budgets for nine-hour work d&i s for highland villagers in Papua New 3E-6
Guinea in 1933 and 1953.









Table Page No.

3E-2. Summary of time budgets for a 168 hour-week for Papua New Guinea in 3E-7
1933, 1953 and 1975 and for the USA in 1975.

3E-3. A typical daily diet for an adult Papua New Guinea highland villager in 3E-9
1953.

3F-1. Estimate of solar emergy basis of indigenous culture in Papua New Guinea 3F-4
based on resident renewable inputs from ecological support base.

3F-2. Macro-economic value of shared and genetic information on Papua New 3F-6
Guinea culture.

4-1. Summary of solar emergy flows and indices for Papua New Guinea in 1987. 4-4

4-2. Solar emergy self-sufficiency and trade balance for Papua New Guinea and 4-7
other countries of the world for overview.

4-3. Environmental and economic components of annual solar emergy-use for 4-8
Papua New Guinea and other countries of the world for overview.

4-4. Population dcnsit. and solar emergy-use per unit area for Papua New Guinea 4-11
and other countries of the world for overview.

4-5. Solar emergy-use, population and per capital use for Papua New Guinea and 4-12
other countries of the world for overview.

4-6. Solar emergy-use, gross national products and solar emergy/dollar indices for 4-13
Papua New Guinea and other countries of the world for overview.

4-7. Summary of the solar emergy evaluation of tourism in New Britain, Papua 4-17
New Guinea.









LIST OF FIGURES


Figure Page No.

1-1, Map of Papua New Guinea showing its location in the SouLh\west Pacific 1-4
Ocean, its major rivers, central mountain range, major cities, mining
operations and ports.

1-2. Systems diagram of the combined ecologic-economic system of Papua 1-8
New Guinea.

2-1. Symbols and definitions of the energy language diagramming used to 2-3
represent systems.

2-2. Simplified diagrams illustrating calculation of(a) net emer gy yield ratio; 2-7
(b) net emerg, exchange ratio; and (c) solar transformity.

2-3. Systems diagram illustrating a calculation of investment r:itio. environ- 2-10
mental loading ratio and net yield ratio for a regional economy.

2-4. Systems diagram illustrating calculation of investment ratio, environmental 2-12
loading ratio and net yield ratio for a sector of an economic

2-5. Overview diagram of a nation, its environmental resource base, economic 2-15
component, imports and exports: (a) main flows of money and solar emergy;
(b) procedure for summing solar emergy flows.

3A-1. National summary diagrams of annual solar emergy flows of Papua New 3A-9
Guinea.

3A-2. Map of Papua New Guinea showing its inland relief; lowlands coastal plains 3A-13
and highlands above 3t)l1m.

3A-3. Systems diagram relating solar emergy flows associated with highlands and 3A-18
lowlands regions of Papua New Guinea (data from Table A-4).

3B-1. Map of Papua New Guinea showing its forests of known and possible 3B-3
development potential.

3B-2. Systems diagram of biomass production and cutting in lowland rainforest 3B-6
of New Britain, Papua New Guinea (data from Table B-1).









Figure Page No.

3B-3, Aggregated systems diagram of sago palm cultivation in the Gulf Province 3B-9
of Papua New Guinea.

3B-4. Aggregated s\ stems diagram of sweet potato production in a typical highlands 3B-11
village.

3C-1. Energy systems diagram of a computer simulation model of rainforest-land 3C-2
rotation.

3C-2. Output of model simulation of rainforest growth and net primary production 3C-10
over 150 years.

3C-3. Simulation of biomass yield, iainlorest growth, and land rotations based on 3C-12
57/30 harvest schedule over 300 years.

3C-4. Simulation of total yield response over 300 years due to changes in minimum 3C-13
and maximum land rotations.

3D-1. Systems diagram of (a) a regional economy having no trade with external 3D-6
markets and (b) an economy that has developed trade.

3D-2. Systems diagram illustrating the interactions of tourism with the regional 3D-9
economy.

3D-3. Detailed s. stems diagram of a tourist facility showing the main production 3D-11
function that provides goods and services from the tourists who are attracted
by the resort's image.

3D-4. Overview diagrams illustrating USA trade advantage when tourists spend 3D-20
money in (a) Papua New Guinea and (b) Mexico.

3D-5. Schematic diagrams of a coastline showing alternate ways of grouping tourist 3D-24
resorts within their ecological support regions so as not to exceed economic
carrying capacity.

3E-1. Systems diagram of a pre-World War II village family unit in the highlands 3E-2
of Papua New Guinea, circa 1930 prior to industrialization.

3E-2. Systems diagram of a modem family unit in the highlands of Papua New 3E-3
Guinea, circa 1980.

3F-1. S stems diagram showing the resource basis of cultural and genetic 3F-3
information, and their role in the organization of the combined system
of humanity and nature.









Figure


Page No.


4-1. Summary diagrams of ecological contributions, imports and export exchanges 4-9
with the world economy for Papua New Guinea and the United States (values
are normalized relative to environmental source inputs).









Emergy Synthesis Perspectives, Sustainable Development,
and Public Policy Options for Papua New Guinea

S.J. Doherti and M.T. Brown, editors



INTRODUCTION


Papua New Guinea is at a pivotal point in its history. Rich in both culture and resources, the country is
poised between its isolated past and a complicated future. Papua New Guinea is increasingly being drawn
into the greater world economy at the expense of these rich ecologic and cultural systems. As its population
grows and its economy is further incorporated into the world economy. one based on imports and exports,
Papua New Guinea is confronted with man\ of the policy questions regarding the exploitation of natural
resources that all developing nations face.


This study was undertaken to address specific questions regarding resource utilization and proposed
developments in order to identify public policy perspectives for Papua New Guinea and make
recommendations for a sustainable future. Systems analyses of the national economy, its resource base of
environmental flows, imports and its exports were conducted. Several subsystems within Papua New Guinea
were also analyzed for investment requirements and net contribution to the combined national ecologic-
economic system.


Forest operations, rural production systems and tourism were each analyzed using data obtained from
industry experts and the current literature. Resource allocation between highland and lowland regions was
investigated based on demographic, socioeconomic and environmental conditions unique to each region A
microcomputer simulation model of rainforest gro- th and harvesting was developed to investigate the
relationships between land clearings and forest recovery. Energy and time in a highlands village was studied
and the concept of ecological support was applied to indigenous cultures. The question of whether or not raw
products should be directly shipped out of the country instead of using these resources internally was
addressed. A proper balance of development and environment was investigated based on the extent of free
indigenous sources which drive the economy. Alternative public policies were suggested which mni\ aid
Papua New Guinea in its eLforl to develop and still maintain its rich cultural and ecological systems.









ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIC CS


Regional and national economies are increasingly becoming more global. Issues of resource development,
trade and information exchange are likewise growing in proportion to expanding populations and related
activities. Resources needed to support human potential today are placing great demands on our biosphere.
The days of frontier economics are behind us. Uncontrolled exploitation of limited resources has proven
disastrous in many regions of the globe. As economies and ecological support systems become more
interdependent, new disciplines are needed to "bridge the gap" of understanding between societies and nature.
It is now clear that neither ecology nor economics alone can address the problems of our global commons.
New measures of calth, of value, of contributions and production are needed that acknowledge the "natural
capital" and "ecosystem services" provided from healthy environments.


A new interface is now being recognized called "ecological-economics." It is an ambitious and necessary
attempt to understand the affairs of humanity and nature as a single, interdependent system. New tools are
being investigated to measure wealth, services and production fairly and equitably. In this report we use
systems analysis, a holistic approach to studJ ing the combined ecological-economic system of Papua New
Guinea. We use an alternative measure of value, based on real contributions to system performance, termed
FMI-ERG Y, spelled with an "M." It is a concept which quantifies "energy memory" in products and processes.
It is an accounting unit of total contributions, direct and indirect, used in the generation of a product or
service. It is a concept derived from understanding whole systems, their interactions and interdependencies,
and the resources driving and maintaining them.


While most analyses of energy investment have traditionally been used to investigate efficiency in industrial
processes, a broader approach is undertaken here to investigate Papua New Guinea's resource utilization and
exchange. Emergy analysis allows comparison and incorporation of environmental costs and benefits with
variables of traditional economic costs and benefits to provide a more comprehensive perspective for public
policy directives affecting the common good.










OVERVIEW OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA


The country of Papua New Guinea (Figure 1-1) lies on the eastern half of the island of New Guinea just
above Australia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. Its only island neighbor is Irian Jaya, which occupies the
island's western half. Together, they form the western end of Melanesia. It is one of the largest countries in
the South Pacific with a total area of 460,000 km2 including some 600 offshore islands.



Natural History and Ecological Support Base


Situated between the stable land mass of Australia and the deep ocean basin of the Pacific, the island of New
Guinea is considered one of the most mobile zones of the earth's crust (Loffler 1982). It is characterized by
high seismic activity, widespread volcanism, with young faulted and folded mountain chains being the most
conspicuous features of New Guinea. A great central spine of mountain ranges, extends for the length of the
island, with few gaps below 2000 m for much of its length. Between 2 and 10 degrees south latitude, New
Guinea lays claim to being the largest tropical island, the highest island, one of only three tropical areas with
glaciers (Gressitt 1982), as well as a land of a great v ariety of vegetation types, and most kinds of
environments except deserts (Johns 1982). Biolo!.icjll, New Guinea is one of the most diverse habitats on
earth, with characteristic groups of biota such as the famous birds of paradise, the tree kangaroos, and the
specialized moss-forest weevils.


The indigenous populations of Papua New Guinea have historically been isolated from the world ccononim
and have only recently been in contact with external markets and political forces (Matthicssen 1962, Howlett
1967, Rappaport 1968, Bulmer 1988). The coLniln 's independence only came in 1975 after a century of
complicated political history and colonial rule. Owing to difficult terrain, plentiful resources as well as
cultural mechanisms, the peoples of PNG remain a fragmented and diverse society with over 700 pidgin
languages known to be spoken. The present day inhabitants of PNG exhibit a di\ ersity that "undoubtedly
reflects a lengths and complex history of settlement from outside the area, internal migration and
intermarriage" among the many villages (Chowning 1982).

















15 0 1


Bismarck


Sea


Solomon Sea


Gulf of Papua


Port Moresb


Coral Sea


144


Figure 1-1. Map of Papua New Guinea showing its major rivers, central mountain range, major cities, mining operations and roads (from
Baldwin et al 1978).


1500


144


154








The country's population is about 3.5 million, but is growing at a rapid 2-3% per .%car (Qureshi et al 1988)
due largely to immigration along its coastal port cities. Villages in the highlands, which has historically been
the more populated region, however, have maintained an average population of about 200 over the past 30
years even though the country's population has doubled (Bell 1986). Most of the immigrant population is
settling along coastal areas near ports where a monied economy has developed based mainly on exports of
unprocessed minerals, timber, tuna, and cash crops.



Economy


Traditionally, almost the entire indigenous population of Papua New Guinea was supported by a subsistence
economy based on agric culture A few groups were hunters and gatherers and those along the coast relied
largely on fishing (Howlett 1967). Every village had pigs, though they were more a part of cultural and
religious spheres rather than the economic sector (Rappaport 1968). The majority of inhabitants, however,
were cultivators, practicing various forms of swidden agriculture. Trade has always been an important form
of exchange which cannot be accounted for in traditional economic terms.


Even today, 80-85% of the population rely on some form of subsistence farming (Bell 1 986, Qureshi et al
1988) and 97% of all land is still held within customary land tenure systems (Qureshi et al 19881, Contact
with a monied economy has meant a shift from subsistence farming of indigenous crops to crops grown for
sale outside the village for the purchase of materials and energy which are increasingly being incorporated
into their culture. The economy is still in the earlk stages of de elopment, dominated by agriculture and
mining activities (PNG Information Booklet 1986). Since independence in 1975, the national economic
policy has aimed at financial stability while "promoting sustained, broad based growth and raising the rural
living standards" (Qureshi et al 1988). This is accomplished primarily by encouraging subsistence villagers
to increasingly participate in the production of cash crops either for export or for domest i, markets.


The mining sector now accounts for close to 15"% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and 60% of the
money received for exports (Qureshi et al 1988). Present mining of copper, gold, silver and the prospects for
oil exploration indicate that this sector will continue to contribute significantly to the annual GDP (Coopers et
al 1988). All minerals are extracted and exported directly; there is presently no internal processing of any








kind. Companies are foreign owned and Qureshi et al (1988) state that PNG receives only the money paid to
its people for the work they contribute and through leasing of the land.


Agriculture, while supporting either directly or indirectly 85% of the population, accounts for only 35% of the
GDP and about 43% of exports (Qureshi et al 1988) in monetary terms. Cash cropping systems constitute
55% of the total agricultural production, with the remaining 45% representing subsistence cultivation. Four
tree crops--coffee, cocoa, oil palm and copra--provide about 90% of agricultural exports (PNG National
Statistics Office 1986). Small holder farming tracts produce two-thirds of the output of these crops, with
commercial plantations accounting for the rest. Present ly timber extraction and fisheries together account for
only 7% of the dollar income earned from exports, although both sectors are considered to have considerable
potential for growth (Qureshi et al 1988). Exports, making up about 42% of the GDP, roughly balance
imports in monetary terms.


GDP in 1987 was 2.535 billion US$ with a debt service ratio (external loans/GDP) averaging 30% annually
(Qureshi et al 1988). More than half of this foreign financing requirement is related to private industry,
predominantly the mining sector. In addition foreign aid and an annual grant from the Australian
Government amount for about 37" u of budget revenue (PNG Information Booklet 1986). The growth of
GDP during the seventies averaged 1.2% annually (Galenson et al 1982). With an annual population growth
rate of 2.4%, the gro\ th in GDP averaged less than half the rate of population increase. Growth of GDP has
improved over the last few years, averaging 2.3% (Qureshi et al 1988), due mainly to increased mineral
extractions and sales.


Because of the continued importance of subsistence agriculture, only about 12.5% of the labor force is
considered formally employed (PNG National Stats. Office 198 7a) The remainder of the labor force is part
of the self-sustaining subsistence economy outside of the cash economy.










SYSTENIS VIEW OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA


Papua New Guinea is an area of incredible variety of gcomorphology, biota, peoples, languages, history,
traditions and cultures. Diversity is its primary characteristic, whatever the subject of interest These
relationships of indigenous storage, environmental and economic inputs and outflows of Papua New Guinea
are shown in the conceptual energy diagram in Figure 1-2. The system's boundaries include the continental
shelf to a depth of 152 m below sea level (estimate made from map by Espenshade et al 1986) to insure the
environmental contributions of marine resources to the overall economy.


At the left of the diagram, outside renewable sources of sunlight, rain and tides are illustrated as input flows
driving the natural production systems. These major ecoregions are diagrammed as coastal/mangrove,
grasslands, lowland rainforests and montane/alpine rainforests for overview. Mixed lowland rain forests are
the predominant life zone, covering as much as 40% of the country (Davidson 1983). Geologic uplift is an
important input to Papua New Guinea, creating the vast mountain ranges as a land form with real
geopotential work stored. The top soils in the highlands valleys are fertile, often up to 1.5 m in depth
(Grossman 1984), and the climate is tropical and monsoonal with a high average annual rainfall of 1.2 meters
on the coasts to 3.8 m in the central highlands (PNG Information Booklet 1986). The heavy rainfall and
steep slopes give rise to extensive rivers, considerable erosion, depositing large quantities of alluvial material
into the highland valleys and flat coastal plains. These large river systems are shown being driven by the
interaction of mountains and rainfall.


Large mineral deposits of copper, gold and silver exist and are being mined and potential hydrocarbon
reserves are only beginning to be realized (Hapgood 1989). It is expected that these storage, although
concentrated and exhaustible, will continue to be the major source of revenue from PNG's rich natural
resources.


Subsistence farming is shown as a subsystem dependent on indigenous sources and energy production in
natural systems, with only minimal ties to the main economy. Religion and rituals are still very important in
rural villages shown in the diagram as information storage which feedback to the labor and land involved in
gardens. Subsistence agriculture and smallholder cash cropping involve the









































raw material
exports


Figure 1-2. Systems diagram of the combined ecologic-economic system of Papua New Guinea for overview. Shown are indigenous source
flows and imports (drawn outside the system frame)- major ecological sy stems, resource resent es. industries, economic sectors, rural and
urban communities, and culture (drawn as internal components); and exports and trade. P=Price.








most intensive and widespread use of Papua New Guinea's land resources. Bell (1986), however, notes that
many parts of PNG, perhaps 80% of the total area, remain unused due to steep topographic relief and
inhospitable climate. Most of Papua New Guinea's population is rural with 2/3 of the people involved in
subsistence gardening or cash cropping in highlands valleys and coastal plains. Shifting cultivation with a
rotation period of 10-15 years, has traditionally been the main basis of food production for villagers, growing
sweet potato, taro, cassava, and sago. These gardens may be used for up to 5 years or more before a new site
is selected (Bell 1986).


Increasingly, small landholders are converting land to produce cash crops such as coconuts, coffee, and cocoa.
Cash crop farms and tree plantations are diagrammed as fuel subsidized production systems drawing from the
environment. With human derived inputs of fossil fuels, fertilizers, goods and services the environmental
resources are incorporated into the overall economy of PNG. Industries are shown as subsystems drawing
from the storage of environmental and geologic production. Mining, fishing, and forest extraction are shown
as subsectors within the overall system. As indicated by their outflow lines, most of their product is not
incorporated or refined within the country and exported directly, contributing only to the economic (right
hand) side of the system. Hydroelectric power is harnessed from the rivers and used internally, since it cannot
be exported as a product like other fuels.


Money is shown on the right hand side of the diagram as dotted lines flowing in opposite direction of energy
flow, acting as a counter current to real products. Notice that money is paying only for the services of human
work and therefore not represented on the left hand, production side of the system diagram. Money is not
represented as pa) ing for the vast work of the environment. Further, as illustrated in the country diagram,
major aspects of PNG's economy are operating without money pathways, and therefore not accompanied by
dashed lines. Foreign aid is shown as an economic input with a multiplier action in the return flow of interest
payments.










STUDY PLAN


In the study that follows, the nation of Papua New Guinea is considered as a system with its large inventory
of indigenous energy storage and flows as well as its interactions with the global economy. The report is
organized in four sections: Introduction, Methods, Results and Discussion. Results and Discussion are
presented as follows:


First, emergy analysis is used to develop perspectives on the country's resource-use and competitive position
with other nations of the world. Relationships of solar emergy flows to the economy are developed to make
policy recommendations based on resource requirements, use and exchange. All major components are
identified, including environmental sources, flows of money, human roles, imported goods and fuels, and
international exchanges. Highland and lowland regions are evaluated individually as well as analyses of all
major. known resource reserves. Indices are then presented which enable comparisons of emergy measures
with those of traditional economics.


Anal\ ses of several sectors of Papua New Guinea's economy are then presented: evaluations of forest
operations and tourism on the island of New Britain, sago palm cultivation in the Gulf Province, sweet potato
production in a highland A village A microcomputer model of forest-land rotation is presented to investigate
the exploitation rates, land clearings and ecosystem response in tropical rainforests. Activities studies are
then used to evaluate changes in economic expectations and time spent in varying tasks in a typical highland
villagee from 1930 to the present. Finally, a preliminary analysis of indigenous culture is presented.


New concepts such as ecological support area, net yield on investment. environmental loading and
buying power are presented which may aid the reader in better understanding solar emergy measures of
combined ecologic-economic systems. Conclusions are then drawn for each of these subsystems and an
interpretation and discussion of the implications and meaning of the results are given. Finally, these results
are used to evaluate management alternatives and make policy recommendations which account for the work
of nature and humans in the capital production of Papua New Guinea.










Given next is a short list of definitions given for key words and concepts used throughout this report.


Energy: Sometimes referred to as the ability to do work, with work defined simply as the ability to do or
perform something. Energy is a property of all things which can be turned into heat, and is measured in
heat units (BTUs, calories, or joules).


Emergy: An expression of all the cnerg, used in the work processes that generate a product or service in
units of one type of energy. Solar emergy of a product or service is the solar energy embodied, through
successive transformations, required to create and maintain the product or service. Emergy can be
thought of as energy memory -- that energy used up and transformed in a long chain of interactions.
culminating in a product or process that is being evaluated. Emergy, unlike energy, is not directly
measurable, but must be quani flied using sy ltmcis anal sis


Emjoule: The unit of measure of emergy is the" emergy joule," abbreviated emjoule. In this report, it is
expressed in the units of solar energy. previously used to generate a product or service, therefore
expressed as a solar emjoule (sej).


Empower: Power is defined as the ability to influence. Empower is the flow of emergy per unit time, a
measure of potential influence.


Macro-economic value: This is a measure of the money that circulates in an economy as the result of
some process. To obtain the macro-economic dollar value of an emcrgy flow or storage, the emcrgs was
multiplied by the ratio of total cmerg. use by Papua New Guinea to its Gross National Product (solar
em joules / kina or sej / US $).


Maximum empower principle: Systems that tend to prevail are those that take the most effective
ad\ antage of available emergy. S\ stems, economic or ecological, accomplish this by: reinforcing
productive processes, drawing more resources, and overcoming more limitations through effective sN stem
organization. A theory investigated in this study is that palterrns which maximize emergy contribute the
most wealth.









Nonrenewable energy: Energy and material storage that are used at rates that far exceed the rates at
which they are produced. Examples are fossil fuels and mineral ores. In each, geologic and
environmental processes of heating, compression and concentration occur at a rate much slower
than society's consumption. Soil can also be nonrenewable if it is depleted faster than its environmental
support system can naturally replenish it. Nonrenewable resources generally have large emergy values
since they represent large amounts of biological and geologic work.


Renewable energy: Energy flows of the biosphere that are generallN constant and reoccurring, and which
ultimately drive the bio-chemical processes of the earth and contribute to geologic processes. Examples
are sunlight, rainfall and wind. Each of these resources is ultimately limited by its flow rate -- systems
cannot draw from these sources any faster than they are delivered.


Resident energy: These are renewable resources that are characteristic of a region


Transformity The ratio obtained by dividing the total emergy used in a process by the energy yielded by
the process. Solar transformity is measured as the solar emjoules per joule (sej/J) for a given product
or service. Solar transformities are used to convert energies of different types to solar emergy in order to
compare different energies of resources, products and services.









METHODS


This study was undertaken using a "top-down" systems approach. The first step is to construct systems
diagrams that are a means of organizing large arrays of components, pathways of exchange and resource
flows that combine to form the combined ecologic-economic systems under study. The second step was to
evaluate all resources identified through discussion, literature review and diagramming which contribute to
the combined ecologic-economic system under study. The third step involves calculating several indices that
relate resource flows and monetary exchange in order to identify support base, economic vitality and carrying
capacity. Finally, public policy options are recommended for proposed development and resource-use
sectors.


In order to determine the relation between resource-use and the gross national product and to better
understand and subsystem analyses and resource models in perspective of the national trends, the natural
resource base and economy of Papua New Guinea was first synthesized. Subsystems anahlses of the
highlands and lowlands, forest operations, tourism and culture were then undertaken. Computer simulation
models were constructed for forest rotations and offshore tuna and coastal shrimp fisheries operations.


Each system or subsystem was studied with a similar methodology (steps 1-6) as follows:


(1) First a detailed energy systems diagram of each system studied was drawn as a way to gain an initial
network overview, combine information of participants, and organize data-gathering efforts. This
was done for the entire count ry of Papua New Guinea and each of the subsectors that were
in% estimated.

(2) Next, aggregated diagrams were generated from the detailed ones by grouping components into
those believed important to system trends, those of particular interest to current public policy
questions, and those to be evaluated as line items in resource evaluation tables.

(3) Solar emergy evaluation tables were set up to facilitate calculations of main sources and
contributions to each system studied. Resource inputs and yields are reported in each table as
general accounting units (tons, joules, kina, US$, etc.) and also evaluated in solar emergy units
(solar emjoules) and macro-economic terms to facilitate comparisons and public policy inferences.

(4) Indices of solar emergy-use and source origin were calculated to compare systems, predict trends, to
suggest alternatives, identify system efficiencies, and which will be successful.

(5) For some systems a microcomputer simulation program was written to study the temporal and/or
spatial properties of an aggregated model. The program was used as a controlled experiment to









study the effects of varying one factor at a time. Data from literature, resource specialists in Papua
New Guinea, and the solar emergy analyses were used as calibration. Insights on sensitivities and
trends were then suggested from computer graphs.

(6) Models, evaluations and simulations were used to consider which alternatives generate more real
contributions to the unified economy of humanity and nature in Papua New Guinea.

Each of these steps are described in detail below.




Step 1: Detailed Energy Systems Diagram


For understanding, for evaluating, and for simulating, our procedures start with diagramming the system of
interest, or a subsystem of particular interest. This initial diagramming is done in detail with anything put on
paper that can be identified as a relative influence to the system of interest, even though it is thought to be
minor. The first complex diagram is like an inventory. Since the diagram usually. includes environmental and
economic components, it might be considered an organized impact statement. The following are the steps in
the initial diagramming of a system to be evaluated:

1. The boundary of the system is defined.

2. A list of important sources (external causes, external factors, forcing functions) is made.

3. A list of principal component parts believed important, considering the scale of the defined system, is
made.

4. A list of processes (flows, relationships, interactions, production and consumption processes, etc.) is
made. Included in these are flows and transactions of money believed to be important.

5. With these lists agreed on as the important aspects of the system and the question under consideration,
the diagram is drawn using the following conventions of energy language diagramming (from Odum
1971, 1992):

Symbols: The symbols each have rigorous energetic and mathematical meanings (Figure 2-1). An
example of a system diagram is given in Figure 3 as an overview of the combined environmental-
economic system of Papua New Guinea.

System Frame: A rectangular box is drawn to represent the boundaries that are selected.













40


Pr -
-4..........


Energy circuit. A pathway whose flow is proportional to the
quantity in the storage or source upstream.
Source. Outside source of energy delivering forces according to a
program controlled from outside; a forcing function.

Tank. A compartment of energy storage within the system storing a
quantity as the balance of inflows and outflows; a state variable.

Heat sink. Dispersion of potential energy into heat that accompanies
all real transformation processes and storage; loss of potential
energy from further use by the system.

Interaction. Interactive intersection of two pathways coupled to
produce an outflow in proportion to a function of both; control
action of one flow on another; limiting factor action; work gate.

Consumer. Unit that transforms energy quality, stores it, and feeds it
back autocatalytically to improve inflow.


Switching action. A symbol that indicates one or more switching
actions.


Producer. Unit that collects and transforms low-quality energy
under control interactions of high-quality flows.

Self-limiting energy receiver. A unit that has a self-limiting output
when input drives are high because there is a limiting constant
quality of material reacting on a circular pathway within.


Box. Miscellaneous symbol to use for whatever unit or function is
labeled.

Constant-gain amplifier. A unit that delivers an output in
proportion to the input I but changed by a constant factor as long as
the energy source S is sufficient.



Transaction. A unit that indicates a sale of goods or services (solid
line) in exchange for payment of money (dashed line). Price is
shown as an external source.


Figure 2-1. Symbols and definitions of the energy language diagramming used to represent systems
(from Odum 1971, 1983).









Arrangement of Sources: Any input that crosses a boundary is a source, including pure energy
flows, materials, information, the genes of living organisms, human scr ices, as well as inputs that are
destructive. All of these inputs are given a circular symbol. Sources are arranged around the outside
border from left to right in order of their ability to influence the system (i.e., their solar transformities)
starting with sunlight on the left and information and human services on the right.

Pathway Line: Any flow is represented by a line including pure energy, materials and information.
Money is shown with dashed lines flowing in opposite direction of energy flows. Lines without barbs
to indicate direction of flow, may flow in either direction dependent on the difference between two
forces.

Out lows: An> out low which still has available potential energy, material more concentrated than the
environment, or usable information is shown as a pathway from either of the three upper system
borders, but not out of the bottom.

Degraded Energy: Energy that has lost its ability to do work according to the second law of
thermodynamics is represented as pathways converging to a heat sink at the bottom center of the
diagram. Included is heat energy as byproducts of processes and the dispersed energy from
depreciation of storage.

Adding Pathways: Paihwa) s add their flows when they join or when they go into the same the storage
tank. Every flow in or out of a tank must be the same type of flow and measured in the same units.

Interactions: Two or more flows that are different, but are both required for a process are drawn to an
interaction symbol. The flows to an interaction are connected from left to right in order of their solar
transformity; the lower transformity flow connecting to the notched left margin of the symbol (refer to
Figure 2-1 for details).

Counterclockwise Feedbacks: High-qualiht outputs from consumers such as information, controls, and
scarce materials are fed back from right to left in the diagram. Feedbacks from right to left represent a
loss of concentration because of divergence, the service usually being spread out to a larger area.

Material Balances: Since all inflowing materials either accumulate in systems storage or flow out,
each inflowing material such as water or money needs to have outflows drawn.



Step 2: Aggregated Systems Diagrams


Aggregated diagrams were simplified from the detailed diagrams, not by leaving things out, but by combining
them in aggregated categories. Simplified diagrams have: the source inputs (cross boundary flows) to be
evaluated; environmental inflows (sun, wind, rain, rivers, and geological processes, etc.); the purchased
resources (fuels, minerals, clectriciti, foods, fiber, wood); human labor and indirect services; money and









exchanges; and information flows. Export flows were also drawn. Initial evaluations were useful in deciding
what was important enough to retain as a separate unit in the diagram.


Components inside the system boundary included: the main land use areas, large storage of fuel, water, and
soil; the main economic interfaces with environmental resources, and final consumers. Interior circulation of
money was not drawn, but all the major flows of money in and out of the systems were included.



Step 3: Solar Emergy Evaluation Tables


All systems studied, including the national overview a nal sis and subsystems evaluations of forest
production, development and use are summarized using solar emergy evaluation tables with calculations of
inputs and summaries of solar emergy indices given as footnotes. Each table is presented similarly, with 6
columns, each with the following headings:


1 2 3 4 5 6

Solar Solar Macro-economic
Footnote Item Basic data transformity emergy value
(J, tons, $ cost) (sejIJ) (.j/.quanity,'.iimec (US$, 1988)



Column One is the line item number, which is also the number of the footnote in the table where the
source of the raw data is cited and calculations shown.

Column Two is the name of the item being evaluated, which is also shown on the aggregated diagram.

Column Three is the resource inputs to production, given in units reported by industry accounting or
obtained from environmental and statistical abstracts. These are reported as average annual flows (joules,
grams or US $) per unit volume or area, derived from various sources and identified as footnotes (column
1).

Column Four is the solar transformity or solar emergy per unit for each input, measured in solar emjoules
per joule, s.,i/J (or Ljigram: or s //dollar. see definitions below). These are obtained from pre% ious,
independent studies (updated from Odum et al 1983; McClanahan and Brown 1991, Odum and Arding
1991, and Odum 1991).

Column Fi e is the solar emergy of the resource input, measured in solar emjoules per year per production
output. It is the product of columns 3 and 4.









Column Six is the macro-economic value, reported in macro-economic dollars, for 1988. This was
obtained by dividing the solar emergy (column 5) by the relation of annual solar emergy-use to Papua New
Guinea's GNP in 1988. See definitions below for solar emergy per dollar index and macro-economic
value.

Inputs and outputs for any evaluated sector is identified on each solar energy evaluation table and in the text
and footnotes using a similar notation. Aggregations of environmental inputs are identified as (I); each set of
purchased inputs associated with a particular process step is summed as (F); and product yields are
identified as Yi. Any solar transformities calculated as a result of a subsystems analysis are indexed in the
tables by lower case letters (a, b, c...) given as footnotes. This was done in order to separate solar
transformities derived from other, referenced independent studies and those that were calculated as a result of
this study.



Step 4: Solar Emergy Indices


From the emergy evaluation tables, comparative indices of solar emergy origins, allocations, exchange, and
relations to macro-economic valuation were calculated to draw inferences, gain perspectives, and aid in
decisions regarding public policy and welfare.


Net Yield Ratio


The net solar energy yield ratio is the solar emergy of an output divided by the solar emergy of those inputs
to the process that are purchased and fed back from the economy (Figure 2-2a). This ratio indicates whether
the process can compete in supplying a primary energy source for an economy. Typical competitive fuel
sources have been about 4 or 6 to 1, though these favorable ratios are declining as fossil reserves decline
increasing extraction and processing costs. Processes yielding less than those available may not be currently
economic as primary sources.







PUrckmaed Inflow (F)


Outflow of
Upgraded Energy (Y)


Net Emergy Yield Ratio = (Y-F)/F


Nation A: Emergy Exchange Ratio Imports-
Exports
(b)


A4-+C (au in nwW
Transformity of 0 = A-i- ofsome type)
0 energy )


Simplified diagrams illustrating (a) the calculation of the net emergy yield ratio (NYR) for
an economic activity where purchased goods, fuels and services are used to upgrade a
lower grade resource; (b) the calculation of the net emergy exchange ratio (ER) for trade
between two nations; and (c) the calculation of a solar transformity for the energy flow
"D" that is a product of the process that requires the input of 3 different sources of solar
emergy.


Non- Renewabl. Source


Figure 2-2.









Exchange Ratio


The solar emerge exchange ratio is the ratio of solar emergy received to solar emergy delivered in a trade or
sales transaction. If the market transaction is trade, for example a trade of grain for oil, the ratio can be
expressed as the relation of solar emergy supporting each commodity (Figure 2-2b). If the exchange is a sale
of a commodity in order to generate revenue to purchase necessary goods or scrn ices. the exchange ratio can
be calculated as the solar energy of the product sold divided by the solar emergy that could be purchased with
the earned revenue. This is estimated using the solar cmenrgy/dollar index for the buyer nation or region.


A central theorem investigated here is that the area recei% ing the more solar emergy due to the market
transaction has its economy stimulated more. Previous studies have indicated that raw products such
as minerals, rural products from agriculture, fisheries, and forestry general. tend to have high exchange
ratios when sold at market price (Brown et al 1991, Brown and McClanahan 1991, Odum and Arding 1991).
This is a result of money. being paid for human services and not for the extensive work of nature that went
into these products. The solar emergy exchange ratio is used in this study as a measure of the relative trade
advantage of one trade partner over another.


Solar Transformity


As previously defined, this is the relationship between "what it took" to make a product or service and
its actual energy content. All independent contributing resources to a productive process, evaluated in
solar emergy, are summed logelhcr as the numerator and divided by the observed or actual energy\ content in
the denominator (Figure 2-2c). The units, thercfoi e, are solar emjoules /joule (sej/J). Solar transformiiies
used to convert natural resources, imports and exports in this study are drawn from independent studies
[Odum and Odum 1983 (updated in Odum 1991), Odum et al 1986, Odum et al 1987, Odum and Arding
1991). From emergy evaluations conducted in this stud\. some solar transformities are calculated for
products and services of Papua New Guinea and are listed separately (see emergy evaluation table heading
descriptions above).


If systems are operating at maximum power, a solar transformity for a product or service is a measure
of "potential value" to the receiving system. A related theorem investigated here, is that systems will self-








organize over time to develop components and pathways that stimulate productive processes which generate
at least as much as they require.


Investment Ratio


The solar emergy investment ratio (IR) is the ratio of solar emerge derived from the economy [F] to
the solar emergy delivered free from environmental sources (both renewable [I] and nonrenewable [N])
(Figure 2-3):


IR=F/(I+N) (1)


This ratio indicates if the process is economical as a utilizer of the economY's investments in comparison with
alternatives. The larger the IR, the greater the amount of purchased emergy is required per unit of resident
emergy. To be economical, the process should have a similar ratio to its competitors. If it receives less from
the economy, the ratio is less and its prices are less so that it will tend to compete in the market place. Its
prices are less when it is receiving a higher percentage of its useful work free from environmental inputs than
its competitors.


However, operation at a low investment ratio uses less of the attracted investment than is possible. The
tendency may be to increase the purchased inputs so as to process more output and generate more cash flow.
The tendency is towards optimum resource use. This suggests that operations above or below the current
regional investment ratio will tend to change towards the investment ratio common for that region.


Environmental Loading Ratio


Environmental loading ratio (ELR) is a measure of potential impact or "loading" a particular development
activity can have on its environment. It is the relationship of purchased emergy [F] plus resident
nonrenewable emcrgv [N] to resident renewable emergy [I] (Figure 2-3) as follows:


ELR= (N + F) /I (2)









Purchased Inputs (F)


Renewable Inputs


/ /1 ------ C -- Yield (Y)




Regional
Economy






Investment Ratio of Regional Economy:

IRvon = F/(I + N)


Environmental Loading Ratio of Regional Economy:

ELR?, = ( F + N ) / I


Net Yield Ratio of Regional Economy:

YR oon = Y / F




Figure 2-3. Systems diagram illustrating a regional economy that imports purchased inputs (F) and
uses resident renewable inputs (I) and nonrenewable storage (N). Several ratios used for
comparison between systems are below the diagram and are explained in the text. The
letters on pathways refer to flows of solar emergy per unit time. Thus, ratios of flows are
dynamic and changing over time.


2-10








Nearly all productive processes of humanity involve the interaction of nonrenewable resources with
renewable sources from the environment. Low ELRs indicate relatively small "loading" on the ecosystem
support base, while high ELRs reflect greater potential impact. When compared with other ELRs of the
region, an ELR as a measure of environmental stress due to a proposed action can be used to address carn, ing
capacity.


Evaluating Regional and Local IRs and ELRs


Figure 2-4 is a simplified diagram of a regional economy and a sector of the economy The sector uses
renewable resources (I,) and purchased goods and services from both the local economy (Fm) and external
markets (Fi). The sector is actually part of the regional economy, but is shown separately to highlight the
comparison between it and the region in which it is embedded. The investment ratio in the regional economy
(IR.) is derived using the ratio of purchased resources (F) to resident emergy (renewable sources supporting
the main economy [IJ plus nonrenewables [Nj) as follows:


IR = F / ( l,, +N,,) (3)


The investment ratio of the sector (IR) is calculated in a similar manner, accounting for all sources of
renewable and purchased resources as follows:


IR = (F, + F) / ( I, + N,) (4)


The environmental loading for the region and sector within the regional economy are calculated somewhat
dilTfferently from each other. The regional ELR is calculated as the ratio of nonrenewable (F+N,) to renewable
emergy (I,) as before. The ELR for the economic sector, howec er. has to take into account the portion of Fm
that comes from I,,,, since that area of environment is not adding to the "load" on the environment of the sector
but, in effect is part of the environmental support for the sector. Thus the ELR for the sector is calculated by
subtracting the portion of F,, that is from I,,. This done by first calculating the total solar energy of the main
economy (Total solar emergy {U] = Fm,+F,+N,+N,+I,+I,), then di\ iding by l, to determine the percent of the
total that is derived from renew able sources supporting the main economy (I,,).







-Purchased Inputs (F)
(Imports)


Investment Ratio for Economic Sector:

IR tor = ( F+FM)/( Is + Ns)


Environmental Loading Ratio for Economic Sector:
ELR or = [ FI + ( FM kF ) + Ns / ( Is + kF )


Net Yield Ratio for Economic Sector:
NYRseor = Y / ( F + F)




Figure 2-4. Systems diagram of a regional economy showing the flows of energy from external
sources and from within the economy. The sector of the economy being investigated is
shown separated from the main economy in the lower left. The sector receives resources
from imports (F,), from the main economy (FM), from nonrenewable storage (Ns), and
from the environment (Is). The ratios given in the diagram are explained in the text.









The ELR for the sector is then determined as follows:


ELR,= [F + ( F- kF ) +N] /(I, +kF.) (5)
where:
k = percent of total solar cnicrgy budget for main economy [U] that is derived from
environmental sources [I]


Determining Carrying Capacity for Economic Investments


Once the ELR for a region is known and the total annual nonrenewable energy use by a development
is determined, the area of land necessary to balance the development can be calculated using the average
annual flux of renewable solar emergy per unit area of landscape. This is can be used as a measure of power
density of renewable solar emergy, and is derived from the analysis of the regional or national economy. The
area of support necessary for a proposed development is here defined as its Carrm ing Capacity. To determine
the carr ing capacity of a proposed development, the ELR for the region is calculated (as above), and then the
following equivalent proportion is determined:


ELR -gon= ELRpropod development (6)
where:
ELR,:,, = known
ELRdaveIopt = [ Fi + ( Fm kF. ) + N, ] / (1 + kF )


and the equation is solved as follows:


(I, +kFm) = [ Fj+(F. -kFm, ) +NJ/ ELR ro (7)


Once the quantity (I, + kF ) is known, the area of landscape required to balance the proposed development
can be calculated as follows:


Support area (i.e. Carr-. ing Capacit) = (I, + kF, ) / I, (8)
where:
egion = known power density for renewable resources of the region (sej / m2)


2-13









Relation of Solar Emergy Support Base and Economic Product
The relation of annual solar emergy-use to the gross national product of a country was considered an
estimate of the solar emerge supporting each unit of currency circulating in the economy for a particular year
(Figure 2-5). As the diagram shows, it includes renewable environmental sources such as sunlight, wind and
rain, non-renewable resources used such as fossil and mineral reserves and soil, imported fuels, goods and
services. In general, rural countries tend to have higher solar emergy/dollar indices because more of their
economy involves direct environmental resource inputs that are not paid for (Odum et at 1983, Odum and
Arding 1991, Brown et al 1991).


In this study, the solar energy to dollar index calculated for Papua New Guinea in 1988 is used to estimate
the amount of direct and indirect resources supporting each unit of currency. This is used to address all
inputs and all costs to production sectors, including an estimate of solar emergy supporting life-styles of
workers discussed below.


Macro-economic Value


The term macro-economic value refers to the total amount of dollar flow generated in the entire economy
supported by a given amount of solar emergy input. It is calculated by dividing the solar energy of a product
or process by the solar emergy/dollar index for the economy to which it contributes. This is a way of putting
an monetary value on services and storage not traditionalI\ accounted for in economics such as transpired
rainfall, photos. nthetic production, forest bicnmas<, volunteer labor, parenting and information. This is not a
market value, but instead a value for public policN inferences and directives.


Estimate of the Solar Emergyv Support Base of Human Services


The money paid for machinery, fuels and other goods necessary in a production sector pays for the human
services involved in the refinement, manufacture and delivery of the commodity. By summing the total solar
emergy input to Papua New Guinea in 1988, including environmental sources, fuels and foreign purchases,
the amount of solar cmergv supporting the gross national product was estimated, measured as solar emjoules
per unit currency (sej!kina or sej/US$) for that year. This relation was













































E22 solar emjoules/yr


Imports



Indigenous Exports
sourcesN
R.No. NN2 N2B', E3




(b)


Figure 2-5. Overview systems diagram of a nation, its environmental resource base, economic component,
imports and exports (from Odum et al 1983): (a) main flows of money and solar energy; (b)
procedure for summing solar emergy inflows and outflows.


2-15


E12$/yr








used to assign a solar emergy value to human services in proportion to the money paid for the service,
assuming that each kina paid for a product or service represents a proportional amount of solar emergy
supporting the direct and indirect human labor requirements. By multiplying the monetary cost of a
commodity or labor hour by this index of annual solar emcrg- flow to monetary flow, an estimate of
solar emergy supporting labor inputs and indirect human services was assigned.


Since money is only paid to people for their contributions and not for environmental work, this estimate was
derived so that human services could be cqui\ alentl) evaluated along with other inputs to the forest sector.
An average solar energy base for wages earned is an estimate of the lifestyle support requirements of both
direct forest laborers in Sweden as well as the associated human services that produce and deliver imported
commodities. This method of assigning resources supporting labor in proportion to the money paid is used in
other ecological economic accounting methods such as input-output matrix algebra (Costanza 1980, Hannon
et al 1985) and is not without its limitations (Odum 1992). Other methods are possible. For example, the
solar energy supporting labor can be estimated using an a% eragc solar transformity of human metabolism for
a given socio-economic class. While the method used here is an approximation, some measure of total
contributions to human work is necessary if the real requirements to sN stem production is to be assessed.



Step 5: Microcomputer Simulation Models


For simulation, the models in the systems diaigriims were aggregated further, combining features that
were unchanging, small, or belonging to a more general component or process. The source inputs, boundary
flows of money, and the main features of production and consumption were retained. State variables were
identified with descriptive names and mathematical expressions were written for interactions and processes
between state variables. These equations follow criteria predetermined by the orientation of components and
the relationships identified in the diagrams.


Numerical values for flows were written on the pathwl N\ s and on the storage tanks for the state variables in
the systems diagram Steady states were estimated for expected carn ing capacities within the system being
modeled and coefficients were determined for each interactive pathway (i.e. mathematical expression
identifying the relationship of two or more state variables over time). These equations, written into BASIC
computer language, could then be simulated over time and with changes in inputs or state variables using the


2-16








constructed mircocomputer program. By first identil\ ing the baseline calibration at steadN state, one variable
at a time can be changed in the program to study the effects made by manipulating the system. Graphs were
obtained from the computer simulations and included with the text in order to illustrate principles made
clearer by the simulation models.



Step 6: Public Policy Questions


Public policy alternatives that involve decisions regarding development and use of resources are guided
by two criteria in this study: (1) the proposed or existing activity should increase the total flow of solar
emergy into the economy, and (2) the alternative should be sustainable in the long term. The tools for
determining policy options have been outlined above. General themiodynamic principles of all systems are
then used to evaluate these tools and develop criteria for alternative public policies.


Development alternatives that result in higher energy inputs to an economy increase its vitality and
competitive position. A principle that is useful in understanding why this is so is the Maximum Emergy
Principle (which follows from the work of Lotka [1922a], who named it the "maximum power principle"). In
essence, the Maximum Emergy Principle states that the sN stem (or development alternative, in this case) that
will prevail in competition with others is the one that develops the most useful work with inflowing emergy
sources. Useful work is related to using inflowing emergy in reinforcement actions that insure and, if
possible, increase the inflow ing cmerg.. The principle is somewhat circular. That is, processes that are
successful maximize useful work, and useful work is that work which increases inflow, ing emergy.


It is important that the term "useful" is used here. Energy dissipation without useful contribution to
incrlesing inflowing emergy is not reinforcing, and thus cannot compete with sN stems that use inflowing
emergy in self-reinforcing ways. Thus, drilling oil wells and then burning off the oil may use oil faster (in the
short run) than refining and using it to run machines, but it will not compete in the long run with a system that
uses oil to develop and run machines that increase drilling capacity and, ultimately, the supply of oil.


Development alternatives that do not maximize emergy may not compete in the long run and are "selected
against." In the trial and error processes of open markets and individual human choices, the patterns that
generate more emergy will tend to be copied and will prevail. Recommendations for future plans and


2-17








policies that are likely to be successful are those that go in the natural direction toward maximum emergy
production.


The second guiding criterion is that development alternatives be sustainable in the long run To be sure,
sustainability is an elusive concept. Ultimatel), sustainable developments are activities that use no
nonrenewable energy, for once supplies have dwindled, developments that depend on them must also dwindle.
However, the criteria for maximum emergy would suggest that energy be used effectively in the competitive
struggle for existence. Thus, when energy is available, its use in actions that reinforce overall performance is
a prerequisite for sustainability. To do othen, ise would suggest that the development would not be
competitive, and in the short run would not be sustainable. This alternative (no use of nonrenewable energy)
provides the lower bound for sustainability. The upper bound is determined by the Maximum Emergy
Principle as well. Sustainable developments are those that operate at maximum power, neither too slow
(elTicient) nor too fast (inefficient). The question of defining sustainability becomes one of defining
maximum power. In this analysis, we use the Investment Ratio and the Environmental Loading Ratio as the
criteria for sustainability. By matching the ratios of a development with those of the economy in which it is
imbedded, a proposed development is neither more nor less sustainable than the economy as a whole.


The systems analysis procedure is designed to evaluate the flows of energy and materials of systems in
common units that enables one to compare environmental and economic aspects of systems. Usually
questions of development policy and uses of resources involve environmental impacts that must be weighedd
against economic gains. Most often impacts and benefits are quantified in different units resulting in a
paral\ sis of the decision-making process because ihcrc is not a common means of evaluating the trade-offs
between environment and development. Emergy provides a common basis, the energy of one th pe that is
required by all productive processes.


While "Ecological Economics" and methods of se slems analyses of emerg) support are comparatively
new and still evolving, and often difficult to understand, we believe they offer an important step in developing
a quantitative basis for public policy decision making.


2-18









RESULTS


Section A: Emergy Synthesis of Papua New Guinea's Resource Base


by S.J. Doherty



NATIONAL OVERVIEW


Papua New Guinea is a resource rich country. Abundant rainfall, year round sun and deep soils provide a
renewable supply of energy, for forests and agriculture. Coastal resources are supported through waves and
tidal action along extensive shorelines and the continuous inflow of rivers into estuarine systems. Reserves of
minerals, metals and fossil fuels are currently being mined with increased prospects for the future based on
explorations and new discoveries. An emerg- analysis of indigenous sources, imports and exports identified
major resource contributions to PNG's ecological and economic base (Table A-1). The table, as described in
methods, identifies each source flow in energy units (J0. r) or mass (g.'yr), in solar emergy units (scj/. r), as
well as its macro-economic value. The resource flows are broken into three categories: 1) renewable inputs,
2) indigenous production, and 3) extraction of nonreplenishable storage.


Annual precipitation contributed the greatest emergy to terrestrial systems. A chemical potential energy in
rainfall was calculated as the Gibbs free energy in transpired rain. It is a measure of energy derived (4940
J/kg) from a chemical gradient between soil water taken up by plants and pure water that is transpired at the
leaf surface as part of photosynthesis and evaporative cooling. Geopotential energy in rainfall was calculated
as a gravitational potential due to impact of the rainfall on the earth's contoured surface. Thus rain
contributes to environmental work in two % a s -- potential energies due to chemical composition and
elevational position. The solar emerg) was measured as 600E+20 sej/yr and 730E+20 sej/yr, respectively% for
each potential energy in annual rains (items 3 and 4, Table A-1).
Large numbers of islands, extensive coasilincs and a wide continental shelf off the southern mainland result
in large solar emergy contributions from waves received at shore and the tides. Together these


3A-1










Table A-1. Solar emergy support for Papua New Guinea's indigenous resource base, imports and
exports. All flows are based on annual contributions, using 1987 data. Calculations for
basic data are given as footnotes to this table (referenced in column 1).


Annual flows Solar Solar Macro-economic
Note Item raw units/yr transformityO emergy value"
(J, g) ksej/J) (10' sej/yr) (million US$, 1987)


RENEWABLE SOURCES:


Solar insolation
Wind, kinetic
Rain, chemical
Rain, geopotential
Waves received
Tidal energy
Earth cycle


2.59E+21 J
1.34E+18 J
3.30E+18 J
8.57E+18 J
6.15E+17 J
1.23E+18 J
1.85E+18 J


1
1500
18200
10500
30550
16850
6100


25.89
20.07
599.77
729.70
187.85
207.80
112.65


53.97
41.84
891.62
1521.19
391.60
433.19
234.84


INDIGENOUS RENEWABLE PRODUCTION:


8 Hydroelectricity
(total electric generation)
9 Agriculture production
0 Livestock
I Fuelwood harvested
2 Fisheries
3 Forest extraction
4 Topsoil formation


1.08E+15 J
5.37E+15 J
3.97E+16 J
1.58E+15 J
3.60E+16 J
1.38E+14 J
2.00E+16 J
1.43E+17 J


200000

2.00E+05
2 OOE+06
40000
2.00E+06
2.53E+05
6.30E+04


2.16
10.74
79.30
31.55
14.37
2.76
50.60
90.14


4.50
22.36
165.32
65.78
29.94
5.76
105.42
187.91


NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES, MINED:


Copper
Gold
Silver


1.75E+11 g
1.45E+07 g
3.68E+07 g


4.50E+10
5.00E+10
5.00E+10


78.80
0.01
0.02


164.26
0.02
0.04


3A-2


a) Mineral and metal ore resources are evaluated using solar emtergy per mass (ejigj>.
b) Solar emergy value divided by annual solar cmerg:, ue!GNP for PNG, 1987 (48 x 102 sejl$).










Table A-1, continued.


Annual flows Solar Solar Macro-economic
Note Item raw units/yr transformitya) emergy value
(J, g, $, p-y) (s.i/J) (10. sej/ r) (million US$, 1987)


IMPORTS AND OUTSIDE SOURCES:

18 Oil 2.80E+16 J 66000 18.49 38.54
19 Phosphorus 1.49E+11 J 4.14E+07 0.06 0.13
20 Nitrogen 5.69E+11 J 1.69E+06 0.01 0.02
21 Potash 4.09E+10 J 2.62E+06 0.001
22 Miscellaneous goods 5.13E+08 $ 3.60E+12 18.48 38.53
23 Net human migration) 9280 p-y 3.47E+16 3.22 6.72
24 Tourism 5.85E+06 $ 2.60E+12 0.15 0.32
25 Foreign aid 9.46E+08 $ 3.60E+12 34.06 71.00
26 Services in imports 9.63E+08 $ 3.60E+12 34.67 72.28

EXPORTS:

27 Cash crops 5.52E+15 J 2.00E+05 11.04 23.02
28 Fisheries products 4.8oE+13 J 2.00E+06 0.97 2.03
29 Forcstr) products 9.46E+15 J 2.53E+05 23.94 49.86
30 Copper 1.75E+11 g 4.50E+10 78.80 164.26
31 Gold 1.45E+07 g 5.00E+10 0.01 0.02
32 Silver 3.68E+07 g 5.00E+10 0.02 0.04
33 Services in exports 1.03E+09 $ 4.80E+13 495.47 1032.90


a) Mineral and metal ore resources are evaluated using solar emergy per mass (sej/g); human services, tourism and foreign
aid are estimated using sej/$ for Papua New Cuini-a for 1987.
b) Solar emergy value divided by annual solar emerg)y-LserGNP for PNG, 1987 (P, = 48 x 10"2 sej/$, Table A-2).
c) Net immigration of people to PNG is evaluated using an estimate for solar emergy supporting an immigidnt for an
average livespan ejipeo[ile-year.


Footnotes to Table A-1.

Derivation of annual energy flows of environmental contributions and principle production systems in Papua New Guinea,
circa 1987. 1 joule = 10' ergs = 1 I.g*n!esc2.

Renvr'able resources:

1. Direct solar insolation received over inland areas and continental shelf:
Shelf area based on measurement within the 153 m below sea level contour [est. from Eperiah:ae (1986)1 .
= [land area + shelf areal*(avg. insolation)*(1-albedo) = (4 h2E I1 m2 + 1.43E+1lm')(85 kcalkm/v'yriEt -l cm2/m2)
*(1-0.3 41 .L0/kcajli =2.59E+21 J/yr


3A-3









Table A-i footnotes, continued.

2. Wind, kinetic energy (within 90 m of surface) =(3.717E+11 kWh/yrfl 3.6E+6 J/kWh) = 1.34E+18 J/yr (Gabel et al
1987)

3. Chemical potential, .-.nL-rg. in rainfall is estimated as the sum of highlands, lowlands and coastal systems contributions
(see subsystems analysis): highlands, 1.31E+18 J/yr + lowlands, 0 s7E+lS J/yr + continental shelf, 0.17E18 J/yr =
2.35E+18 J/yr

4. Gravitational potential energy in rainfall is estimated as the sum of highlands and lowlands contributing energies (see
subsystems analysis): highland.. 6.58E+18 J/yr + lowlands, 0.10E+18 J/yr = 6 45E+18 J/yr

5. Wave energy received at shoreline; (1.708E+11 kWh/yr; Gabel et al I187) (3.6E+6 J/KwH) = 6.15E+17 J/yr

6. Tidal energy = (continental shelf area) (0.5) (no. tides/yr)2 (density of seawater) (gravitational force) = (1.43E+11 m2;
Espenshade et al 1986) (mean tidal rangc. 1.56 m; US Dept. Commerce 1987) (1030 kg!'ni; Odum et al 1983) (706
tides/yr) (9.8 m/s) = 1 2 E+1I J/yr

7. Earth cycle = (4 62E +11 m2) (estimate heat il> o,'e, 4E+6 J/m2/yr; Odum et al 1983) = E 85E+ I J/yr

8. a) Hydroelectricity; 1,31L)[+6 k\\'hlt; Gabel et al lS47) (3.6E+6 J/kWh) = I 08E+15 J/yr
b) Total electricity generation, 1.49E9 kWh, 1984 (UN 1986); (1.49E+9 kWh/yr) (3.6E+6 J',kWh)
= 5.37E+15 J/yr

9. Agrkultural production, 2.71E+6 tonne crop yield, 1982; United Nations 1984a); (2.706E+6 t) (E+6 g/t) (3.5 kcal/g)
(4186 Jl/1. = 3.97E+lb J/yr

10. Livestock production, 4.28E+5 t, 1982 (UN 1984a); (4.28E+5 t) (E+6 g/t) (4 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal) 122% protein) =
1.58E-- l5 J/yr

11. Fuelwood production, 1.79IE+6 t, 1983 (UN lyx:5i; (1.7tbE+6 t) (1E+6 g/t) (2E+4 J/t) = 3 0.,E+lt J/yr
Solar Uarnsforrmity (40,000 sej/J) from sub.-.ten is analysis of rainforest biomass (Table B-l)

12. Fisheries (tuna, crayfish and prawn), 3.75E+4 t, 1982 (UN 1984a); (3.75E+4 t) (E+6 g/t) (4 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal) (22%
protien)= 1.3SLE 14 J/yr

13. Forestry, 1.25E+6 mi avg. annual harvest (PNG Information Booklet 1986); (1.25E+6 mi) (8E+5 g/m') (2E+4 J/g) =
2 (iE+16 Ji/:r. Solar transformity (253,000 sej/J) from ul):,,.Ieni, analysis of forest products (Table B-1).

14. Net topsoil formation;

a) Soil formation assumed occurring on half of forest area = (1/i2c,3 3'4E--11 m2 rainforest; McIntosh 1974) (1260 g
soil build up/m2/yr) = 2.14E+14 g/yr;

b) Soil loss on agricultural areas estimated as ,.3 ? NE' mi agricultural land; UN 1984b) (850 g soil loss/m'/yr; est.
Odum et al 1987) = 3.2E1 l 2 g/yr;

(soil fIorrnaiionu-isoil eroded) = (2.14E+14 g/m2/yr) ('3 2E+12 g/rri/:,T) = 2.11E+14 g/yr

Energy in organic matter of soil estimated as (2.11E+14 g/yr) ('.3 OM content) (5.4 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal)
= 1.43E+17 J/yr

15. Copper, :.75Et5 t/yr mined (UN 1984a); (1.75E+5 t/yr) (1.0E+6g/t) = 1.75E+11 g/yr

16. Gold, 1.45E+4 kg/yr mined irIN 1y4j)., (14500 kg.1 i 0IClIg/k.g; = 1.45E+7 g/yr


3A-4









Table A-1 footnotes, continued.

17. SiIver, 3bx.0O kg/yr (UN 1984); (36800 kg)l(100 X/kg) = 3.68E+7 g/yr

18. Oil, foreign imports = 2.80E+16 J/yr (Johnston 1984)

19. Phophorus imports, 1300 t/yr (UN 1984); % P by atomic wgl, P04 = .33; est. [PO0] as 10% of bulk fertilizer; (1300 t)
(.33) (.1) (E+6g/t) i3-18J/g) = 1.AE+l I J/yr

20. Nitrogen imports, 3200 t/yr (UN 1984); % N by atomic wgt, NH, = .82; est. [NH3] as 10% of bulk fertilizer; (3200 t)
(.82) (.1) (E+6g/t) 12.17E+3 J/g) = 5.6'E+ll J/yr

21. Potash imports.. 1100 t/yr .,UN 1984); est. K as 53% of bulk fert; (1100 t) (.53) tE+6g/i) (702 JIg) = 4.09E+10 J/yr

22. Goods (Yearbook of International Trade Statistics 1981): .food/l ,e animals, 9.227E+7 US$ + beverages/tobacco,
7 334E+6 US$ + crude materials excluding fuels, 2.02SE+o LIS$ + machines/transport equipment, 1.378E+8 US$ +
basic manufactures, 6.066E+7 US$, misc. manufactured goods, 3.471E+7 US$ + other goods not classified, 1.785E+S
US$ = 5.13E+8 US$

23. Net human immigration, 371 irminigatio.rLns (PNG Natd. Stats. Ollike 1987b); (371 persons/yr) (25 yrs old, avg.) = 9280
people-years

24. Tourism, visitor arrivals (19r..i = 8363 people (PNG Nail. Stats. Office 1987b); (8363) %Sl00l/day average expenditures)
(7 day stay) = 5.85E+6 US$

25. Foreign, Aid, K 880 million iCoopers and Lybrand 9IJS.; (8.8E+8) (US$ 1.075,K.) = 9.46E+8 US$

26. Human services in import products; (K 8.73E+8 import expenditures; Qureshi et al 1988)/(K 0.9302/USS) = 9.63E+8
US$. Solar emergy determined from emerg,'GNP index calculated from this study (Table A-2).

27. Cash crop exports (PNG National Stats. Off. 1986); (cocoa beans, 3.09E+4 + coffee, 5.31E+4 + copra, 1.13E+5 + copra
oil, 4.11E+4 + palm oil, 1.29E+5 + rubber, 4940 + tea, 5320)tonnes = 3.77E+5 t; (3.77E+5 t) (E+6 g/t) (3.5 kcal/g) =
(4186 J/kcal) = 5.52E+15 J/yr

28. Fisheries 1985 exports, 1.32E+4 t (P'NG Info. Booklet I9.S7.); (1.32E+4 t) (E+6 g/t) (4 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal) (22%
protein) = 4.86E+13 J/yr

29. Forest products 1986 experts (PNG Info. Booklet 1987); logs, 4.5E+5 m3 + lumber, 4.0E+4 m3) = 4.9E+5 m3; (4.95
E+5 m') (8E+5 g/m3) (2E+$ J/g) = 7.84E+15 J/yr.

woodchips, 8.10E+4 t i1PNG Natl. Stats. Office 1987a); (8.1E-+4 t) (E+t. g/t) t2E+4 J/g) = 1.62E+15

total energy in forest exports = 9.46E+15 J/yr.

Solar transformity .253.0U.i .,)'Jj from analysis of forest products (Table B-1).

All mineral, metal ores are exported without refinement:
30. Copper exports, 1.75E+11 g/yr

31. Gold icporrt, 1.45E+7 g/yr

32. Silver exports, 3 ?EE+7 g/yr

33. Human services in export products, 1987 = 1.03E+09 USS (Qureshi et al 1988)


3A-5








independent sources supply almost 400E+20 sej/yr to PNG, about 20% of total free c.unibuiiins from
indigenous environmental resources. Productive estuaries and extensive coral reefs are supported by
these energies along with extensive inland runoff resulting in large volumes of freshwater to deltas supplied
from numerous rivers. An estimate of earth cycling due to subsurface heat flow was calculated as about
10% of indigenous renewable contributions. This estimate is considered low, as evidenced by tih- high
degree of orographic and volcanic activity in this geologically young land mass (Dow 1977, Loffler 1982).


Many environmental inputs (ie. rain, wind, waves and earth heat flow) are byproducts of the same coupled
solar, atmospheric and geologic processes. Global solar insolation drives physical processes and bi,'lugicil
processes, which in turn are coupled. Wind patterns and surface waves, :on\.ection currents, c% :iporation
over oceans and land surfaces, and weather systems, among other processes are all driven either directly
or indirectly from the sun's energy. The solar transformities used to determine the solar emergy of each
of these inputs were calculated using the annual global flux of solar insolation and deep earth heat released.
The solar transformities are therefore coupled, and in order not to "double count" resource inputs that are
not independent, only the largest contributor of solar energy is counted, representing all co' upled
environmental sources. A total rented ble solar ermergy flow for Papua New Guinea (R) was estimated as
the sum of rain, tides and earth cycle -- a contribution of 1050E+20 seji's r. over 80% of annual solar
emergy-use in the country. Table A-2 summarizes all resource flows for Papua New Guinea in 1987.


Productive sectors of the economy include agriculture, livestock, forest, and fisheries (itemv 8-13, Table
A-1). Hydroelectricity generation is a fledgling industry with potential for growth as evidenced by current
production and the emergy supplied from runoff collected in rivers moving across elevated g radients (i.e.
gravitational potential energy of rain runoff). These indigenous production systems are supported by the
independent sources described above. Almost 2 million tons of fuelwood is harvested each year for
domestic cooking and heating, representing a rural resource formed from past environmental work. This
resource supplies 14E+20 sej/yr on average to the country's indigenous resource base. E..ni a:tti, on of
forest materials was calculated using a solar transfurmity of 2.53E+5 sej/J derived from a subsystems
analysis of forest development in Section B of this report. Forest products contributed 50E+20 sej in 1987
and over half was exported as logs and woodchips (items 13 and 29). An estimate of topsoil loss and
formation showed a net build up contributing about 8% of the


3A-6









Table A-2. Summary of major solar emcrg flows and market economic monetary flows for Papua
New Guinea, 1987. Complete analyses are given in Table A-1.


Solar energy Market value
Variable Item (10" sej/yr) (109 US$, 1987) sej/$



R Renewable sources') 1050.1
N Nonrenewable sources within Papua New Guinea 190.3

No Dispersed rural sources2) 104.5
N, Concentrated use3) 2.6
N2 Export of unprocessed raw materials4) 78.8
F Imported fuels and fertilizers 18.6 0.246
G Imported goods 18.5 0.717
I Dollars paid for imports5) 0.963
P21 Solar emergy value of service in imports6) 17.1
E Dollars received for exports) 1.033
PIE Solar emergy value of service in exports'7 290.5
B Exports transformed, upgraded within country"' 36.0
x Gross National Product, 19S7 (0.93 kina/US$) 2.535
P2 World solar emergy/$ index9) 3.6 x 1012
P, Papua New Guinea's solar energyy$ index 48.0 x 1012

Footnotes to Table A-2.

1) solar emergy contributions from rainlall, tidal energy and earth cycle. Other renewable sources are accounted in this
summation -- since they are coupled, gIb.ilb flows, their solar transfomities share global solar energy flux.
2) fuelwood production and net top soil formation (items 11 and 14, table 1)
3) hydroelectricity gener.tliiir (item 8, table 1)
4) all mined minerals (Cu, Ag, Au) are currently exported directly without value-added processing.
5) data for import expenditures and export revenues from Qureshi et al (1988).
6) imported services (P21) are corrected by subtraLiing the cost of goods (item 22, table 1) whose solar transformity includes
human services from import expenditures: (.1 't.31 0.513 lEt9 US$ = 0.450 E+9 US$; solar emergy value is estimated
by multiplying the $ received for imported services by 3.6E+12sej/$ averagee sej/S index for world economy):
(0.450E+09 $) (3.8E+12seji$) = 17.12 E+20 sej/yr
7) exported services (PE) are corrected by subtracting revenues for agricultural, forestry, and fisher) products (items 27-29,
table 1) whose solar transformities include human labor involved in their production and retrieval: (1.033 0.342 0.077
0.008)E+9 US$ = 0.6056 E+9 US$; solar emergy value is estimated using sej/$ index for Papua New Guinea (48.0E+12
sej/$): ,0 (t156E+9 $) (48.0E+12 sej/$) = 290.69 E+20 sej/yr
8) agriculture, fisheries and forestry product. (items 27-29, table 1)
9) from Odum and Odum (1983), updated in Odum 1991.


3A-7








solar emergy base of Papua New Guinea. Large reserves of solar emergy are mined each year in the form of
copper, gold and silver (items 15-17), totaling about 80E+20 sej/yr. All excavated material is currentlI
exported, thus not contributing directly to production sectors in the country's economy, except for what the
revenues from overseas sales can purchase in terms of needed goods, fuels and services not yet available
within its boarders.


Goods (G), fuels (F) and services (P2) purchased outside the country contributed 54E+20 sej in 1987, about
5% of annual solar cmcrgy-use (Table A-2). Imported fuels represented the largest single import commodity
in 1987 (item 18, Table A-1); over 30% of imports, though less than 2% of the total solar emergy used. The
solar emergy buying power in foreign aid (950 million US $ in 1987) represented an inflow of 35E+20 sej,
representing 60% of imports, yet only 3% of the country's annual emergy base. Over seven times as much
solar emerg) was exported than received through imports in 1987. Direct export of unrefined metal ores (N2:
Cu, Ag, Au) accounted over 20% of exports. Cash crops such as coffee, cocoa, sorghum, and rubber,
accounted for roughly 3% of exports. A majority of forest products are still used within the country as
indicated by the larger amount of wood harvested for domestic use than for export pulp and logs.


Copper ores and forest products represented the two greatest exports of solar emergy. The solar emergy
supporting Papua New Guineans employ ed in services related to the extraction, production and delivery of
export commodities was estimated at 290E+20 sej in 19s8 (PE). As described in methods, this value is a
measure of resources and purchased goods that are consumed directly and indirectly in order to support the
people who produce services or commodities for sale to outside markets. This value suggests that the
majority (75%) of solar emergN exported from Papua New Guinea was the support base of the people, largely
the environment. In other words, low cost raw materials and upgraded goods are subsidized by an abundant
and still healthy ecosystem fe support base.


Figure A-1(a) summarizes resource flows for Papua New Guinea in 1987. Environmental sources are
identified at the left; mineral, soils and forest wood are shown as internal storage, market goods, services
and money are shown toward the right Numbers and variables on the pathim as s correspond to evaluations in
Table A-I and summarized in Table A-2. A three-arm diagram [Figure A-l(b)] further aggregates
contributing flo\\ s as three pathways: 1) free indigenous, environmental sources


3A-8
















































Imports


Indigenous 1237
Sources


Figure A-1.


1 1 58


Total Exports 406
79
N
2


National summary diagrams of annual solar emergy flows of Papua New Guinea. (a)
Aggregated diagram of major resource flows and monetary exchange. Values on pathway
correspond to Table A-2. (b) Three-arm diagram further summarizing contributions as
indigenous sources, imports and exports.


3A-9








[R + (No + N1)]; 2) purchased imports (F + G + P21); and 3) exports to other countries (B + PIE and N2).
These diagrams assist the reader in s) nthesi.'ing the energy evaluations by combining similar flows from the
tables and aggregating the systems diagram of the country presented in the introduction.


A number of indices relating resources, people and the economy of Papua New Guinea have been prepared in
order to draw perspectives on the relative importance of contributing emergy sources (Table A-3). The first
seven entries are simple aggregations of supporting emergy flows evaluated in Tables A-1 and A-2. The
other listings are ratios and indices derived from these summations. Over 85% of PNG's total support base is
delivered from renewable environmental sources -- much higher than most other countries of the world.
Including nonrenewable sources, about 95% of PNG's emergy basis is derived from within the country (item
14). In other words, the environment contributes more than 6 times the solar emergy than is received through
economic transactions. Currently, electricity and fossil fuel consumption account for less than 5% of the
country's annual emergy-use


On the other hand, Papua New Guinea exports more than 7 times as much solar emergy as it can purchase
with revenues from overseas sales (item 11, Table A-3). This translates into a net emergy deficit due to trade
of about 350E+20 sej/yr -- about 25% of the country's annual emerg -use Relating annual emergy-use to the
country's GNP, 52 trillion solar emergy joules are used annually for each kina circulating in the economy
(exchange rate 0.93 kina/US $, 1988 ; 48E+12 sej / international $ US). This index is an order of magnitude
higher than more developed countries. For instance, in 1987 the USA emergy/money index was about 2E+12
sej/$ US (Odum 1988). This suggests that much more solar energy supports each unit of currency in PNG.
When products are sold at market value to overseas buyers, PNG delivers 20 times more solar emergy to the
foreign market than thce could purchase with the revenues from the sale. This solar emcrgy represents
environmental resources supporting the people of PNG, including both monied and unmonied lifestyles. By
not recognizing the services and products provided from PNG's ecological support base, resources sold to
foreign buN crs are subsidized resulting in low prices that do not accurately rellect the ability of a resource to
stimulate real work in the receiver's economy.


An estimate of a carrying capacity based on renewable resource use for the people of Papua New Guinea was
estimated using current emergy-use and the percentage of that annual consumption that


3A-10







Table A-3. Overview indices of annual solar emergy-use, origin, and economic and demographic
relations for Papua New Guinea, 19S7.


Name of Index Derivation Quantity


1 Renewable solar energy flow
(rain, tides, earth heat floA)
2 Solar emergy flow from indigenous
nonrenewable reserves
3 Flow of imported solar emergy
4 Total solar emergy inflows
5 Total solar emergy used, U
6 Economic component
7 Total exported solar emergy
8 % Locally renewable (free)
9 Economic/cnvironment ratio
10 Ratio of imports to exports
11 Export to imports
12 Net solar emergy deficit due to trade
(imports minus exports)
13 % of solar emergy-use purchased
14 % of solar emergy-use derived
from home sources
15 Solar emergy-use per unit area
(0.462 million km2)
16 Solar emergy-use per person
(3.5 million people)
17 Renewable canr ing cjpacit)
at present living standard
18 Developed carrying capacity
at same living standard


1050.1 x 1020 sej/yr


N
F+G+P2I
R+N+F+G+P2I
NI+R+F+G+P2I
U-R
N2+B+PIE
R/U
(U-R) / R
(F+G+P21) / (N2+B+PiE)
(N2+B+PiE) / (F+G+P21)

(F+G+P21) (N2+B+PE)
(F+G+P21) / U


190.3 x 1020
54.1 x 1020
1294.6 x 1020
1215.8 x 1020
165.6 x 10'0
405.3 x 1020
86.4
0.14
0.13
7.49

- 351.2 x 1020
4.5


(N,+R) / U


sej/yr
sej/yr
sej/yr
sej/yr
sej/yr
sej/yr
%






sej/yr
%


95.5 %


U / area


U / population

(R/Ll)* po(pulat ion0)

8*(R/U)*(population)


0.26 x 1012 sej/m2

34.7 x 101s sej/person

3.02 x 106 people

24.2 x 106 people


Index of solar emerge -usc to GNP
% Electric (1.5 TWh)
% Fossil fuels
Fuel-use per person


P, = U / GNP,187
(electricity use) / U
(fuel use) / U
fuel-use / population


3A-11


48.0 x 1012
1.8
1.5
0.53 x 10i"


sej/$
%
%
sej/person








was renewable (R/U). Just over 3 million people can presumably be supported on a sustainable basis using
only resident renewable resources (about 87% of current population). With increasing ties to world
economies, developing to global standards, Papua New Guinea could presumably support almost 7 times the
current population. This assumes greater trade with outside markets, greater use of indigenous resources, and
an increase in the country 's regional investment ratio (IR) to a world average of 8 to 1 (purchased imports to
environmental source contributions). Such an increase would be accompanied by further integration into a
monied economy and a lowering of per capital energy consumption resulting in a lower standard of living. A
few other indices relating population and area to solar emergy-use are presented in Table A-3. These indices
and the others discussed here will be revisited in the Recommendations and Conclusion Section of this report
comparing Papua New Guinea's emergy and economic indices to other countries of the world.


It is evident here that Papua New Guinea is still a rural country with most of its real wealth derived from free
indigenous sources. There is a 20:1 ratio of environmental emerg) to purchased imports, re% dealing a low
dependence on foreign exchange. At the same time, a large amount of solar emergy is exported %without any
refinement in the country. Raw materials provide societ- with a net contribution of solar emergy due to past
unmonied environmental work, supporting value-added industries and peoples. Currently, as evidenced by
low solar energy contributions from imports relative to exported resources, Papua New Guinea is operating
at a net trade deficit. This is possible due primarily to a large ecological support system -- one that will
increasingly be threatened with further developments that don't consider these free contributions.




REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE HIGHLANDS AND LOWLANDS


An emergy evaluation of the highland and lowland regions of Papua New Guinea was undertaken to better
understand the role of ecological and ph. siographic conditions considered unique to each region and their
effects on resource production and allocation. The country's relief is shown in Figure A-2 and Table A-4
summarizes physiographic and climatological differences between the regions.


The highlands represent those lands greater than 300 meters in elevation, comprising 56% of PNG's land
base. Based on data from Davidson (1983), the mean elevation of the highlands above the upper limit of the
lowlands (300 meters) is 1000 meters. This elevation was used to calculate the


3A-12












































Map of Papua New Guinea, showing its inland relief; lowlands coastal plains, highlands above 300m, and the central
cordillera above 2400m.


Figure A-2.









Table A-4. Indigenous, renewable solar cmrrgy support for highlands and lowlands regions in Papua
New Guinea. Calculations are given as footnotes to this table.


Highlands" Lowlands2 Country total


% Total area 56 44 100 %

Avg. elevation 1000 150 794 m

Annual rainfall 3.73 1.20 2.62 m/yr

Runoff
volume 699 68 767 x 109 m4/yr
percent of incident rainfall 72 28 53 %

Evapotranspiration 28 72 47 %

Chemical potential emergy in rainfall" 238 189 427 x 1020 sej/yr

Geopotential emergy in rainfall 719 11 730 x 102) sej/yr

Chemical stream emergy ---- ---- 1708 x 1020 sej/yr

Phi),ical stream emergy4 ---- ---- 314 x 10' sej/yr



Footnotes to Table A-4.

1. Highlands region
a. chemical potential: "highlands area) (rainfall) (% ET) (density of rain water) (Gibbs free erierg.) = (56%)(4.62E+11
m') (3.73 m rain) (0.28) (1000 kg/m') (4940 JI/kg) = 1.31E+18 J/yr;
solar trherg:, = (1.31E+t8 J/yr)(18200 s.'j,'J) = 2.3X[+22 sej/yr

b. geopotential energy: (highlands area) (avg. elevation) (rainfall) (% runoff) (density of rain water) 'gravitational force)
= (5r(')I.4.62E+ll m2) (1000 m) (3.73 m rain) (0.72) (1000 kg/m') (9.8 m/s2) = 6.85E+18 J/yr;
solar emergy = (6.85E+18 J/yr) (10500 sej/J) = 7.19E+22 sej/yr

2. Lowlands region
a. chemical energy. rain over land: (lowlands area) tirinfill) (% ET) (density of rain water) (Gibbs free energy) =
(44%)(4.62E+11 m2) (1.20 m rain) (0.72) (1000 kg/m3) (4940 J/kg) = 0.87E+18 J/yr;
solar emergy = (0.87E+-18 J/yr) (18200 sej/J) = 1.58E+22 sej/yr

chemical energy, rain over coastal system: (continental shelf) .rainfall) (density of rain water) (Gibbs free energy
for seawater/rainwater differential) = (1.43E+11 m2) (1.20 m rain) (1000 kg/m1) (1000 J/kg) = 0.17E+18 J/yr;
solar energy = (0.17E+18 J/yr, over sea) (18200 sej/J) = 3.09E+21 sej/yr

total chemical emergy in rainfall = (1.58 + 0.31)Ei22 sej/yr = 1.89E+22 sej/yr


3A-14









Table A-4 footnotes, continued.

2. b. physical energy, rain over land: (lowlands area) (avg. elevation) (rainfall) (% runoff) (density of rain water)
(gravitational force) = (44%)(4.62E+11 m2) (150 m) (1.20 m rain) (.28) (1000 kg/m') (9.8 m/s2) = 0.10E+18 J/yr;
solar energy = Q.U.lUEtl8 J/yr) (105O0 sej/J) = 05E+21 sej/yr

3. Chemical stream energy estimated as contributions from 2 sources: 1) volume flow from highlands runoff into
lowlands and 2) runoff from lowlands into coastal systems:

1) highlands runoff into lowlands = (% runoff from highlands) ('highlands rain) (highlands area) = 6.99E+11 m3/yr;
(6.99E+11 m3/yr) (I10-Xikg/mr) (4940 J/kg) = 3.45E+18 J/yr;

2) lowlands runoff into coastal systems = (lowlands runoff) (lowlands rain) (lowlands area) = 6.83E+10 m'/yr;
(6.83E+10 m3/yr) ,0, 0kg,"m') (1000 J.,kgj = U.UtLb E+1 J/yr;

Solar energy = (3.45E+18 J/yr + 0.68E+18 J/yr) (48500 sej/J) = 1.71E+23 sej/Ar

4. PlJ,,sical stream energy estimated as the sum of 1) -.ur'face water runoff from highlands into lowlands and 2) direct
precipitation on lowlands not evapotranspirated:

Solar emergy = (highlands + lowlands runoffT (avg. elev. drop of lowlands drainage area) (gravitational force)
(density of water) = [6.99E+11 m3 + 0.68 m3j (150 m elevational change) (9.8 m/s2) (1000 kg/m') = 1.13E+18 J/yr;
(1.13E+18 J/yr) (27900 sej/J) = 3.14E+22 sejiyr


3A-15








geopotential energy due to rain runoff for the highlands. A% erage annual rainfall for this region is 3.73 m
(van der Leeden 1985). Evapotranspiration rates (ET) were estimated to be around 30% of incident rain;
runoff was considered to be that which is not evaporated or transpired (100 %ET = 72%).


The lowlands represent the remaining 44% of the land area with an average elevation of 150 m (the mean
height between sea level and 300 m), including the coastal waters out to the edge of the continental shelf.
Lowlands have lower cloud coverage, greater solar insolation, lower rainfall, more winds and less steep
slopes yielding greater evapotranspiration rates and lower runoff rates. An average of 1.20 m of precipitation
falls annually on the lowlands and surrounding coastal waters (PNG Info. Booklet 1986). Evapotranspiration
and runoff rates were considered inverse of those in the highlands.


From these regional analyses, it is clear that a vast majority of the emergy delivered from annual rains is due
to climatic conditions, ecological cover and physiographic relief unique to the highlands. Nearly all of the
gravitational potential in rainwater across the country's topography is due to highland conditions. About 98%
of the 730E+20 sej/yr is contributed from actions of highlands rains (Table A-4). In contrast, much of rain's
chemical potential energy is derived from lowland i egetati'. e cover, higher temperatures and winds which
drive photosynthesis and transpiration (almost 60% of the 427E+20 sej/yr in transpired rain is delivered from
lowland and coastal areas).


The chemical and physical energies in rivers were also estimated based on volume of runoff from the
two regions' 1) the volume of surface water runoff leaving the highlands which is concentrated in river
channels and flows into the lowlands, and 2) the volume of runoff into coastal systems due to the direct
rainfall on the lowlands which is not evapotranspired. The chemical potential emergy in river flow was
estimated 1708E+20 sej/yr; the physical stream emergy was estimated at 314E+20 scij/r. This regional
analysis brings into perspective the large energy contributions due to prevailing conditions of the
environment in these two regions of the mainland. Further, it is apparent that although the highlands receive
greater rainfall, most is runoff and collected in stream channels entering the lowlands, so that much of its
potential is directed downstream toward the receiving systems below.


In an attempt to investigate issues of resource allocation, demographic and socioeconomic conditions were
attributed to each region. Two-thirds of the country's population was considered rural highlands (Bell 1986)
or roughly 2.3 million people, with 1.2 million inhabitants in the lowlands and along the coast. It was


3A-16








assumed that a quarter of the imported goods and services reached the highlands; the lowlands being the more
urban area with its large port cities. Solar emergy flows for both regions are summarized in Figure A-3. The
total solar emergy base for the highlands was estimated at just over 1000E+20 sej/yr. Lowlands solar emergy
base totalled 2500E+20 sej/yr, over twice that of the highlands. Using this scenario, per capital emergy-use in
the lowlands was over 4 times as great as per capita-use in the highlands. This regional analysis identifies the
importance of highlands rain, forest cover and stream network to the country's renewable resource base.



ENERGY EVALUATION OF INDIGENOUS RESOURCE RESERVES


Papua New Guinea has large resource rescr\ cs, including forest biomass. organic matter in soil, metal ores
and fossil hydro-carbon reserves. Estimates of solar emergy were made for all known major reserves (Table
A-5). Solar emergy of rainforest reserves were calculated using a solar transformity for standing forest
biomass derived in the subsystems analysis of forest operations in New Britain (see Table B-1). Coastal
plain swamps were evaluated using a solar transformity derived from subsystems analh sis of sago palm (see
footnotes to Figure B-2). Other solar transformities are drawn from independent studies and cited as
footnotes. All storages are expressed in billion macro-economic dollars, by dividing the solar emergy stored
in a resource reserve by 2E+12 sej/$ US, the emerg. dollarr index for the United States in 1987 (Odum 1988).
This was done in order to relate real value based on past environmental production of existing reserves. As
defined in the methods section, macro-economic value refers to the total amount of dollar flow that could be
generated by use of a resource. By expressing solar emergy in macro-economic dollars, potential
contributions to Papua New Guinea's total, combined economy are made relative to international markets.


Based on energy content and wood density values for rainforest biomass derived from Brown and Lugo
(1984) and standing crop estimates of PNG's different forest types (Davidson 1983), estimates of stored solar
emergy were made. Lowland rainforests, the largest area of forest cover type (about 20 million ha), had the
largest biomass storage of solar emergy (item 1, Table A-5), about 6.5E+24 sej.


3A-17



























Total Inputs into Highlands:

20
--- 1022 x 10 sej/yr


Fo' ion Total Inputs Into Lowlands:

S40 20
208 2513 x 10 sej/yr
Tides


LOWLANDS





Figure A-3. Systems diagram relating solar emergy flows associated with highlands and lowlands
regions of Papua New Guinea. Calculations for pathway values are given as footnotes to
Table A-4.


3A-18



















Table A-5. Storage of solar energy in resoruce reserves within Papua New Guinea.
Calculations for basic data given as footnotes to this table.


Storage Solar Macro-economic
Note Indigenous quantity emergy') valueb)
reserves (J, g) (sej) (billion US $, 1988)


1 Lowland rainforest 1.62E+20 J 6.46E+24 3228
2 Lower montane forest 1.04E+20 J 4.17E+24 2085
3 Alpine/montane forest 9.48E+18 J 3.80E+23 190
4 Coastal plains swamps 5.88E+17 J 7.44E+22 39
5 Mangroves 7.10E+18 J 1.04E+18 52
6 Regrowth and gardens 2.95E+18 J 5.60E+22 28
7 Soil organic matter 6.65E+18 J 4.15E+23 208
8 Copper ore 6.24E+12 g 2.81E+23 140
9 Gold 9.72E+09 g 4.86E+20 < 1
10 Oil 2.95E+18 J 1.56E+23 78
11 Natural gas 1.10E+19 J 5.29E+23 265


total macro-economic value of resource reserves: 6.3 trillion US $, 1988.



a) Solar emergy derived using solar transformilies given below.
b) Solar emergy divided by solar emnrgy,' index for U.S. in 1988 (2 x 10" sej/$) to give perspective of
value on international markets.


3A-19










Footnotes toTable A-5.


1 Lowland tropical rainforest; area of forest cover = 19.9E+6 ha (McIntosh 1974), biomass = 405.4 ton/ha (Broun and
Lugo 1'~S-); energy content = 4.78 kcal/g (E.P. Odum 1971); solar transformity = 40,000 sej/J (for derivation see Table
B-1): (19 4'E-rb ha) (405.4. t/ha) (1E+6 g/ton) (4.78 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal) = 1.62E+20 J; (1.62E+20 J) (40000 sej/J) =
6.46E+24 sej

2 Lower montane forest; 9.1E+6 ha (MNclrntoh 1974), 572.6 t/ha (Brown and Lugo 1984): (9.1 E+6 ha) (572.6 t/ha) (1E+6
g/t) (4.78 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal) = 1 .U4E+2J J; (1.04E+20 J) (40000 sej/J) = 4.17E+24 sej

3 Montane and alpine forest; 1.2E+6 ha (McIntosh 1974), 394.9 t/ha (Brown and Lugo 1984): (1.2E+6 ha) (394.9 t/ha)
(1E+6 g/t) (4.78 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcjlh = 9.48E+18 J; (9.48E+18 J) (4u0() sej/J) = 3 80E-23 sej

4 Sago palm and woodland swamps; 3.5E+6 ha (McIntosh 19741. 4.012 kcal/ha (Ulijaszek and Poraituk 1983); solar
:ransfo.rmii> = 131600 -_j/JJ (for derivation see footnotes to Figure B-2): (3.5E+6 ha) (135 trunks/ha) (74.3 kg/trunks)
(400 kcal/U.I kg) (4186 J/kca ) = 5.88E+17 J; (5.88E+17 J) (131600 sL'J'JI = 7.74E+22 sej

5 MNagruves. 4.5E+6 ha (McIntosh 19744); 1E+4 g/m2 (Snedaker 1986), energy content 3.77 kcal/g: (4.5E+6 ha) (10000
m2/ha) (1E+4 g/m2) (3.77 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal) = 7. IUE+1 J; (7.10E+18 J) (14700 SLj/J i = 1 04E+23 sej

6 Regrowth and gardens; 2.4E+b ha (MklnroA h 1974)., 4.2 kcal/g (Odum et al 19.'13): (2.4E+6 ha) (10000 m%/ha) (7000
g/m2) (4.2 k'c alg) (4186 J/kcal) = 2.95E+18 J; (2.95E+18 J) (19000 sej/J) = 5.60E+22 sej

7 Organic matter in soil; est. 7000 g/m2, 10% ,rganrik matter content: (4.2E+7 ha) (10000 m2/ha) (7000 g/m') (0.1) (5.4
kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal) = 6.65E+18 J; (6.652E+18 J) (62500 ojj/I = 4 15E+23 sej

8 Copper ore; estimates 950 million tons i.Parigun.i Mine, 0.4% Cu coriterL') + 350 million tons (Ok Tedi Mine, 0.7%)
(PNG Info. Bk. ] $4-l = 6.25E+6 tons: (6.25E+6 t) (I 0E+n g/t) = 6.25Et12 g; (,.25E+12 g) (4.5E+10 sej/g) =
2.81E+23 sej

9 Gold; estimate 34E+6 tons, (Ok Tedi Mine, 286g/t purity) (PNG Info. Bk. 1984): (3.4E+7 t) (286 g/t) = 9.72E+9 g;
:.9 72E+9 g) (5.0E+10 sej/J) = 4 86E+20 sej

10 Oil reserves = 345 mbbI oil + 137 mbbl condensate (Qureshi et al 198S): (482E+6 bbl) (5.8E+6 Btu/bbl) (1055 J/Btu) =
2.95E+1,S J; 2.95E+18 J) (53000 scy'i = 1.56E+23 sej

11 Natural gas; estimate 10 millionn cu ft (Qureshi et al 1,Q88y (10E+12 cu ft) (2 832E 02 m'!cu ft) (3.89E+7 J/m3) =
1.102E+19 J; (1.IO2Et19 J) (48000 sej/J) = 5.29E+23 sej


3A-20








Referring back to Table A-1, only about 0.04E+24 sej of forest products including fuelwood was harvested in
1988. This lowland rainforest emergy expressed as macro-economic contributions, was estimated to be
worth 3.2 trillion dollars, roughly half of all solar energy stored in major reserves in PNG. Lower montane
forests are the next largest emergy storage with over 9 million ha and over 2E+12 sej stored in standing
biomass (Table A-5, item 2). Coastal plain swamps and mangroves together represent about 90E+9 US$ in
storage.


Other biotic reserves of include regrow\th and gardens and organic matter stored in forest soils, together worth
almost 250 billion macro-economic dollars (items 6 and 7). The two largest mining companies in Papua New
Guinea, Panguna and Ok Tedi, have an estimated 140 billion macro-dollars in copper reserves (item 8).
Known gold reserves represent insignificant contributions of solar emergy. Known, potential and possible
hydrocarbon reserves, while relatively small (oil and natural gas store 340 billion US$), may be significantly
larger if future explorations meet current discoveries (Dow 1977 and Hapgood 1989).


Together, all major reserves store over 6 trillion US$ in macro-economic value within Papua New Guinea.
The macro-economic value of these resource reserves is almost 2500 times greater than the current national
product of 2.54 billion US$. Further, 90% of all reserves are forest biomass, based on renewable energy
sources of sunlight and rainfall. These resource reserves will play important and expanding roles in the
country's future economy. In chapter 3-F of this report, we make a preliminary estimate of the solar emergy
of stored genetic and cultural information in PNG nationals, representing the convergence of past
environmental work into high quality information storage. The large solar emergy stored in these resource
and information reserves illustrates the abundant %eahlih not only in annual production but in sa% ings as well.
By recognizing real value of all contributing sources, not simply those with market value, a new perspective is
gained which identifies Papua New Guinea as a resource wealthy counir) with great amounts of solar emergy
delivered mostly free from home sources and stored in indigenous reserves. These values will be compared
with those of other countries as concluding remarks to this report in order to draw perspectives relative to
other rural and developed nations.


3A-21









Section B: Subsystems Analyses of Major Rural Production Systems


by S.J. Doherty



In this section, three indigenous production ss stems are evaluated for net N field and return on investments
using measures of solar emergy. These systems are: 1) a lowland rainforest logging operation on the island
of New Britain; 2) sago palm cultivation in the Gulf Province; and 3) sweet potato production in a typical
highlands village. Each one will be introduced briefly, accompanied by a systems diagram with calculations
footnoted. Sources from both the environment and any purchased resources derived outside the system were
evaluated. Ratios of net yield and investment as described in the methods section of this report are calculated
for each production sector. Solar transformities calculated for each product was then used in the national
overview analysis (Section A) in order to estimate as accurately as possible the contributions due to major
production sectors. Finally an estimate of environmental support area is given for each sector which
demonstrates the role of Papua New Guinea's rich renewable resource base in supporting its people and their
activities.



SUBSYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF FORESTRY IN NEW BRITAIN


Overview of Forest Resources


For many thousands of years the forests of Papua New Guinea have been the primary renewable resource for
its people, providing building materials, fuels, food, medicine and gardening plots. The commercial
exploitation of forests began after World War II. Eighty-five percent of the country's land area is tree-
covered, and one-third is considered accessible commercial forest K ing et al 1982). Other valuations are
lower; Galenson et al (1982) estimated that one million hectares (2 percent of the land area) were under
allocation for exploitation and another 6 million hectares are of known and possible potential. The
discrepancy in figures is largely due to the debate over accessibility of forest products and variable
assessments of timber grade. Davidson (1984) reports that although PNG has the highest forest/land area
ratio of all the Indo-Pacific nations, it has a low percentage of operable forest area due to difficulty of the
terrain.


3B-1








The forests of Papua New Guinea are broken into major ecotypes Table A-5, along with emergy valuations of
standing reserves based on solar transformities determined from these subsystem analyses. The major
forestry operations have been in lowland rainforests which cover the greatest land area. Much of the country
is difficult to access owing to extensive swamps and steep slopes. What is accessible is of a mixed variety
hardwood type with generally low economic returns on investment (McIntosh 1974, Tickell per. comm.
1990). Some 200 timber species have economic potential (Komtagarea 1979), but presently only a few
account for the bulk of merchantable timber. The island of New Britain is the major forest industry area of
PNG (Perry 1985), but the largest individual clear felling project has been the Gogol/JANT project in the
valleys south of Madang Province.


The Office of Forests (1977) developed an inventory of known, possible and potential forest development
areas based on difficulty of access, suitability of terrain to clear felling operations and risk assessment.
Important ecological variables such as biomass produatiL ity, stability, evapotranspiration rates and water
quality have not been included in the inventory. These known and possible areas of forestry potential along
with the major timber operations existing in 1977 are gi% en in Figure B-I. Most of the marketable timber
comes from a few select species such as Pomctiai spp., Eucalvptis spp., Agathis spp., and Araucaria spp. in
the higher elevations. Because of the high diversity of low-grade timber, the steep slopes, high rainfall
(average 2500-3500 mm annually), the remoteness of much of the resource, and the division of land tenure,
the rainforests of much of Papua New Guinea's landscape are afforded, at least temporarily, some protection--
if by nothing more than aggravation.


Emergy Analysis of Forestry in New Britain


Data for forestry operating expenses (fuel, machinery, road materials, labor) and estimates of forest biomass
(total organic matter, stemwood biomass, annual production) were derived from the literature and synthesized
with known values supplied by industry (Tickell per. comm. 1990). The evaluation was made for a 20,000 ha
operation in lowland rainforests of New Britain. Table B-I lists all resource flows in raw input units per ton
wood product and as solar emergy (sej/ton). All calculations are given as footnotes to the table. An overview
diagram is gi ven in Figure B-2 summarizing all solar emergy flows for forest production.


3B-2

































Sea
.Phii l pines
Mlas- Papuad
)i Ne w Guinea
Areas f orest types low mid in e n wh t y
cllan Coreal <:= t' 'dmh ind ns 0t
< Ocean Pacifeic
\ sAustralia Ocean
Sea
e, New s
Zealand>


14 1440 147 5' 0 153 156-


Figure B-1. Map of Papua New Guinea showing its forests of known and possible development potential (redrawn from Baldwin et al 1978).
Areas of forest types (lowland, montane, alpine, coastal plains and mangroves) are reported in Table A-5 with the emergy
calculations of forest biomass reserves. Note the high development potential on the island of New Britain.









Table B-1. Resource flows supporting rainforest logging in New Britain, Papua New Guinea. All
values are given per ton of harvestable wood.


Resource Solar Solar
Note Item inputs transformity emergy
(J, g, $/ton) (sej/J) (sej/ton)


1 environmental energy 4.40E+10 J 1.82E+04 8,00E+14
2 fuels 2.70E+08 J 5.30E+04 1.43E+13
3 oil 6.77E+07 J 6.80E+04 4.61E+12
4 machinery 11.20 $ 2.00E+12 2.24E+13
5 other equipment 1.28 $ 2.00E+12 2.55E+12
6 road construction 3.20E+06 g 1.50E+06 4.80E+12
7 labor 4.57$ 4.80E+13 2.19E+14
8 miscellaneous costs 12.10 $ 2.00E+12 2.42E+13

Standing crop biomass 2.00E+10 J (a) 8.00E+14
Harvested yield 4.32E+09 J (b) 1.09E+15


(a) Solar transformity of standing biomass: 40000 sej/J
(b) Solar transformity of harvested wood: 253000 sej/J

Net yield ratio of harvested wood: 4.19
Investment ratio of harvested wood: 0.33



Footnotes to Table B-1.

Energy content of rainforest wood: 4.78 kcal/g (4186 J/kcal) = 2 00E+t- J/g
%% oud density: 8.00E+5 g/m'

Estimate of standing crop of lowland rainforest biomass 1 ickill per. comm. 1990):
min 120 m'/ha, max 250 im/hd, 185 m'/ha avg.
extractable, usable volume = 40 rnm/h. = 22 % of avg volume
(40m'/ha) (0.8E+6 g/m3) = 145 tons/ha i,21:i-4 J/g) = 2.9oE+12 J/ha

total standing crop on 20,000 ha: (185 m'/ha) (0.8 t/m3) (2Uii)0 ha) = 2.'E+u6 tons
total energy: (2.96E+6 t) (2E+4 J/g) = 5.92E+16 J

Annual yield
premium qualtiy: (1500 m3/mo) .0 8E+5 t/m') (12 mo/yr) = 14400 tons/yr (2E+4 J/g) = 2.88E+14 J/yr
construction quality: i35.iJ m'/ino) (U SEtb g/m') (12 mo/yr) = 33600 tons/yr (2E+4 J/g) = 6.72E+14 J/yr
total volume harvested: 48000 tons/yr
total uen-Tgy in harvest: 9.60E+14 J/yr


3B-4









Table B-1 footnotes, continued.

Percent of total harvested armuLhIll (annual harvest, 48000 tons/yr) / (total standing crop, 2 9vE+ 6 tons) = 2 %
Average area cleared annually: 324 ha/yr
Lifetime of project: 62 yrs

1. Transpired rain, chemical potential: land area = 10000 m'/ha; annual rainfall = 80 in; runoff = 28%; evapotranspiration =
72; (72%) (80 in) (.0254 m/in) (lJ00 m2) (1000 kg/mn) (4940 J/kg) = 7.23E+10 J/ha/yr; (7.23E+10 J/ha/yr) (18200
sej/l) = 1.32E+15 sej/ha/yr

Total rdanf.JI supporting total standing crop: estimated time to grow forest (200t/ha, max voume) = 90 yrs (based on
simulation of forest land rotation model, section C); (90 yrs) (1.32E+15 sej/ha/yr) = 1.19E+17 sej;

sej per ton standing crop: (1.19E+17 sej) (148 t/ha, average) (20,000 ha, total project area) = 8.00E+14 sej/ton

sej per ton harvested: (8.00E+14 sej/ton) (22% estractable) = 3.70E+15 sej/ton

2. Fuel used: 30000 liters/mo; (30000 liters/mo) (energy content 3 60E+07 J/l) (12 mo/yr) = 1.30E+13 J/mo (53000 sej/J)
= 6.87E+17 sej/yr;

sej per ton: (6.87E+17 sej/yr) / (48000 tons/yr harvested) = 1.43E+13 sej/ton

3. Oil, lubricants, etc. (3500 kina/month) / (0.93 k/$) 1 (0.50 $Ihlnr) = (7527 1/mo) energyy content, 3.60E+07 J/l) (12 mo/yr)
= 3 25E+ 12 J/mo (6S0u.I sej/J) = 2.21E+17 sej/:,r,

sej per ton: (2.21E+17 sej/yr) / (48000 tons/yr harvested) = 4.61E+12 sej/ton

4. Machinery: (capital outlay, 2.00E+06 kina) (estimated lifetime, 4 yrs) / (0.93 k/$) = 5.38E+5 $/yr (U.S. sej/$ index,
'2 oE+12 sej/S)= 1 I 08E-t s Sj/,r.

sej per ton: (1 tISE+ 1 sej/yr) / (48000 tons/yr harvested) = 2.24E+13 sej/ton

5. Other equipment: (5 70E-iJ5 kina) (est. lifeurnei, 10 yrs) / (0.93 k/S) = b.13Eo4-1 $/yr (2.i)lE+12 sej/US $)= 1 23E+17
sej/yr;

sej per ton: (1.23E+17 sej.'yr) / (i48(.10 tuns/.,,r harvested) = 2.55E+12 sej!IIon

6. Road construction: (length, 4 km) (width, 6 m) = 22000 m2 surface area:
gravel: (800 m/lmo) (est. rock density 2.W00Eato g/m3) (12 mo/yr) = 1.54E+11 g/yr (est. solar transformity using
concrete, 1.50E+06 se.ggI = 2.30E+17 sej/yr:

sej per ton: (2.30E+17 sej/yr) / (48000 tons/yr harvested) = 4.80E+12 sej/ton

7. Labor:
nationals, 8000 kina/mo / .0.93 k/$) (12 mo/yr) = 1.03E+05 $/yr;
expatriates, 9000 kina/mo / (0.93 k/$) (12 mo/yr) = 1.16E+05 $/yr
total labor costs = 2.19E+05 $/yr (4.80E+13 sej/$, P,, table A-2) = 1.05E+19 iej/r,

sej per ton: (1 U5E+ I~ sej/yr) / (48000 tons/yr hav'cstd) = 2.19E+14 sej/ton

8. Miscellaneous costs = 45t0 0O kina/mo / (0.93 k/$) (12 mo/yr) = 5.S I E-45 $/yr (2 00E+12 sej/ US $) = 1.16E+18 sej/yr;

sej per ton: (1.16E+18 sej/yr) / (48000 tons/yr hIrc<-stc*a = 2.42E+13

3B-5

























































Figure B-2. Systems diagram of biomass production and cutting in lowland rainforests in New Britain.
All pathway values are 1012 sej/Ion Values correspond to those in Table B-1 with
accompanying footnotes and citations.

3B-6








Transpired rainfall was used to estimate environmental emergy supporting forest growth and maintenance.
Rainfall in New Britain averages 80 inches (2000 mm) annually. Using the forest land rotation model
(Section 3-C of this report), it was estimated that about 90 years would be required to reach a mature steady
state forest, averaging 148 tons of stemwood biomass per hectare. Using a wood density estimate for tropical
woods of 0.8 tons/m3, this represents 185 m'/ha. As described in the previous paragraphs, although there is a
high volume of Ibrest biomass (range 120 m3 to 250 m3 per hectare, mean 185 mn/ha), the exportable volume
of lumber and construction quality stemwood was estimated to be 40 m3/ha (32 tons), or about 22% of total
volume.


Using this information, a solar transformity for total biomass standing in forest was calculated as 40,000
sej/J [Table B-I, item (a)]. This is the same order of magnitude as other tropical wood (Odum et al 1986,
Keitt 1991) though this Iransformiti does not include societal goods and services required to extract and
process it. Once the wood has been harvested, the solar transformity increases to 253,000 sej/J (item b).
Solar transformities for temperate wood products are generally much lower. For instance, harvested spruce
and pine in Sweden had solar transformities of about 10,000 sej/J (Doherty et al 1991). The higher values for
tropical woods are due in part to two factors: 1) high environmental emergy per unit product and 2) a greater
diversity of structure in complex rainforests. This greater complexity yields much of material that is not
targeted for exploitation and structure that is wasted in the process of extracting marketable timber. This is
certainly the case in Papua New Guinea where, because of the difficult terrain and diverse mix of forest
species, much of the standing forest biomass is wasted when forests are clearcut.


A net yield ratio of just over 4 to 1 suggests that forest products deliver a net benefit to Papua New Guinea's
combined economy, though the net yields are not as high as previous studies of other tropical regions have
reported. An investment ratio of 0.3 similarly demonstrates that nature is contributing 3 times as much solar
emergy as that invested from the main economy for forest development projects. Using 40.000 sej/J for
standing forest biomass, the rainforests of Papua New Guinea were estimated to store as much as 14E+24 sej
with a macro-economic value of 5.5 trillion dollars (refer to Table A-5, items 1, 2 and 3 summing lowland
rainforests, montane and alpine forests). Of course, this value is an estimate for all restt biomass, not just
export quality stemwood. The question of whether these forest products should be used by PNG nationals or
sold overseas for needed revenues will be discussed in the concluding sections of this report


3B-7








SUBSYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF SAGO PALM CULTIVATION


Sago palm woodlands along the coastal plains of Southern Papua New Guinea cover an estimated 3.5 million
hectares (Davidson 1983). Traditionally sago palm has been either harvested through progressive clearings
from natural woodlands or cultivated under limited management by local villagers for building materials and
other resources. Although some plantations exist, sago palm is still considered a local resource and is not
targeted for export (Pernetta and Hill 1984). Coastal plains woodlands are vast wetlands receiving large
amounts of environmental resources in the form of surface water runoff from the highlands. Direct rainfall is
tN pically lower than in the highlands and solar insolation is greater than a erage due to lower cloud coverage.


A subs steins anal) sis for sago palm cultivation was conducted using data drawn from a comprehensive
study in Papua New Guinea's Gulf Province by Ulijaszek and Poraituk (1983). Values for productivity
ranged from 7 mature trunks/ha per annum for subsistence gathering of uncultivated woodlands to 330
trunks/ha/yr from plantations under intensive management. A mean production of 135 trunks/ha taken
annually under village management was considered a sustainable harvest. This value was used in the
following analysis. Palm trunk weight (74 kg.'trunk) and energy content (4000 kal 'kg1 and estimates of
village labor (133 hrs/106 kcal dry sago palm) were drawn from Ulijasiek and Poraituk (1983). Rainfall was
estimated as the average for the country (2.62 m).


The solar emergy supporting labor was calculated two ways: 1) using a transformi\ for human metabolism
calculated in Section F (Table F-1, item 2) and 2) using a measure of solar emergy per capital calculated from
the national analysis (Section A, Table A-3, item 16). The average of these two calculations was used to
estimate solar emergy supporting labor. The ecological support area for labor was estimated following
methods for calculating carn ing capacity for economic investments described in the Methods Section of this
report. Simply, the percent of the country's total emergy budget that was locally renewable ([R/U = 86%];
Table A-3, item 8) was used as to determine how much village labor was supported by the local environment.


Solar emergy values are shown in Figure B-3 with corresponding calculations given as footnotes to the
summary diagram A solar transformity for harvested sago palm was determined at 131,600 sej/J.


3B-8





















188 x 10 J/ha-yr


x 10 iseJ/ha yr


Solar transformity = 131,600 sej/J
Net yield ratio = 8
Investment ratio = 0.15


Figure B-3. Aggregated systems diagram of sago palm cultivation in the Gulf Province of Papua New
Guinea. All pathway values are 10"1 sej/ha/yr for sustainable production.


footnotes to Figure B-3
Sago palm yield = (135 trunks/ha/yr) (74.3 kg/trunk) (400 kcal/O.1 kg) (4186 J/kcal) = 1.68E+11 J/ha/yr

Chemical rain = (2.62 m/yr) (10000 m2/ha) (1000 kg/m3) (4940 J/kg i = 1.29E+11 J/ha/yr; (1.29E+11 J/ha/yr) (18200 sej/J) =
2.36E+15 sej/ha/yr

Labor estimated using average of two calculations:
(133 hrs labor/I E +6 kcal dry sago palm) (4.0122E+7 kcal SP/ha/yr production) (2927 kcal/day food intake) / (24 hrs/day)
(4186 J/kcal) = 2.724 E+9 J/ha/yr; (2.724E+9 J/hyr.)(6.7E+6 sej/J; Table F-1, item 2) = 18.25E+15 sej/ha/yr
(133 hrs labor/lE+6 kcal dry sago palm) (4.0122E+7 kcal SP/ha/yr production) = 5336 hrs/yr; (5336 hrs/yr) / (8736
hrs/yr) = 61% of annual activity; U/person = 34.7E+15 sej/per (Table A-3, item 16); (0.61) (34.7E+15 sej/per) =
21.2E+15 sej/ha/yr
average = [(18.25 + 21.2)/2] E+15 sej/ha/yr = 19.7E+15 sej/ha/yr

Environmental support for labor, [10als.n] = R/U = 86% (Table A-3, item 8); 0.86,) (19.7E+15 sej/ha/yr) = 16.9E+15 sej/haTyr
Outside village support for labor, [F(tabor)] = 1 -R/U = 14%; (0.14) (19.7E+15 sej/ha/yr) = 2.8E+15 sej/ha/yr

I = total ecosystem emergy = rain + I(labor) = (2.36 +16.9) E+15 sej/ha!yT = 19.3E+15 sej/ha/yr
F = total support outside village = F(labor) = 2 8E+ 15 sej/ha/yr
Y = total solar energy input = I + F = 22.1E+15 sej/ha/yr

Net yield ratio = Y/F = 8:1
Investment ratio = F/I = 0.15
Solar transformity = (22.1E+15 sej/ha/yr) / (1.68E+11 J/ha/yr) = 131600 sej /J

Renewable cnmergy density for country [R/ha] = [R (waves, tides)] / (area of PNG) = (712E+20 sej/yr) / (46.2E+6 ha) =
1.54E+15 sej/ha
Ecological support area = I(labor) / (R/ha) = (16.9 E+15 sej/ha/yr) / (1.54E+15 seji/a/yr) = 11


3B-9








This value is of similar magnitude of other agricultural crops in tropical regions (2E+5 sej/J). A net energy
yield ratio of 8:1 and an investment ratio of 0.15 suggest the importance of environmental sources in sago
palm cultivation. Most other agro-forest operations yield much lower returns on investment [compare for
c\ample harvested lowland rainforest wood at 4:1 (Table B-l)]. An ecological support area of 11 ha for each
hectare of sago palm further demonstrates the role of the environment in rural production of indigenous crops.



SUBSYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF SWEET POTATO PRODUCTION


Although not native to Papua New Guinea, the sweet potato or yam (lpomea batatas) has quantitatively been
the most important food crop in subsistence agriculture (Kimber 1972). As of 1985, sweet potato production
was worth an estimated K200 million per year (0.22 trillion US $) (Bourke 1985). No other single crop,
including exports crops, contributes as much to the national economy. Over 100,000 ha of sweet potato are
planted throughout the country. As well as being a major subsistence crop, sweet potato is now an important
cash crop with over 450,000 tons produced per annum. The role of the sweet potato in village life has been
widely reported through ethnographic and agronomic studies (Rappaport 1968; Malynicz 1971; Kimber
1972; Bourke 1977; Grossman 1984 among many others). The principle products are cooked tubers for
human consumption and raw tubers, vines and leaves used as pig feed.


In this overview analysis, 22.4 tons/ha of sweet potato produced annually was used as an average production
(from Grossman 1984 and Bourke 1985). Purchased inputs included fertilizers as well as goods and services
support ing \ village labor. About 30% of a villager's time was estimated spent tending sweet potato gardens
(2770 hrs/yr). This value was determined as the average of two activities studies in Papua New Guinea
villages (Lea 1970 and Grossman 1984). Solar emergy basis for labor and its ecological support area were
determined using the methods given in the 'subs% stems anal sis of sago palm.


Solar emergy flows are summarized in Figure B-4 with accompanying calculations given as footnotes. A
solar transformity of 52,100 sej/J was calculated for sweet potato. A net emery yield ratio of 12:1


3B-10





















J/ha yr


Solar transformity = 52,100 sej/J
Net yield ratio = 12
Investment ratio = 0.14


Figure B-4. Aggregated systems diagram of sweet potato production in a typical highland village. All
pathway values are 10'5 sej/ha/yr for average production.

Footnotes to Figure B-4.
Sweet potato yield = (22.4 tons/ha/yr) (1E+6 g/t) (2.77 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal) = 2.59E+11 Ih-a/yr

Chcniicl rain = (2.62 m/yr) i.1l)(i0j m2/ha) (1000 kg/m3) (4940 J/kg) = 1 29E-- 11 J/ha/yr; (1 29E+11 J/!h./rl (18200 sej/J) =
2 3 E+15 sej/ha/yr

Nitrogen fertilizer = (100 kghla/;, r. (1000 g/kg) (0.82) (0.1) (2170 J/g) = 1.7SE+7 J/ha/yr; (1.78E+7 J/ha&yr) (1.69E+6 sej/J) =
301E+13 sej/haUr,
Potash = (100 kg/ha/yr) (1000 g/kg) (0.53) (702 J/g) = 3.72E+7 Jihayr. (3 72E+7 J/ha/yr) (2.62E+6 sej/J) = 9.75E+13
sej/ha/yr;
Phosphorus = (50 kg/ha/)T) (1000 g/kg) (0.33) (0.1) (348 J/g) = 5.74E+5 J/h.l.yr: (5.74E+5 J/lha/yr) (4.14 EB+7 sej/J) =
2.38E+13 scj/,hayr;
total fertilizer input = 0.15E+15 sej/haiyr

Village labor = 2768 hrs/ha/yr (Lea 1970 and Grossman 19S4): (2768 hrshlia/>r)/(8736 hrs/yr) = 32% of annual activity;
(U/persun) = 34.7E+15 sej/person (Table A-3, item 16); (0.32) (34.7E+15 sej/pr) = ll.OE+15 sej/ha/yr
Environmental support for labor, [1.itil.cJ = R/U = 86% (Table A-3, item 8); (0.86) (1l.OE+15 sej/yr) = 9.45E+15
sej/ha/yr
Outside village support for labor, [F(labor)] = 1 -R/U = 1 0.86 = 0,14; (0.14) (ll.0E+15 sej/yr) = 1.54E+15 se./ha/yr

I = total ecosystem emergy = chemical rain + I(labor) = (2.36 + 9.45) E+15 sej/ha/yr = 11.81E+15 sej/hrd/r
F = total support outside k illige = fertilizers + F(labor) = (0.15 + 1.54) E+15 sej/ha/yr = 1.69E+15 sejta/'.r
Y = total solar emergy input = I + F = (11.81 + 1.69) E+15 sej/ha/yv = 13.5E+15 sej/ha!yr

Net yield ratio = Y/F = 12:1
Investment ratio = F/I = 0.14
Solar transformity = (13.5E+15 sej/ha/yr) / (2.59E+11 J/ha/yr) = 52100 sej/J

Ecological support area = I(labor) / (R/ha) = (9.45E+15 sej/ha/yr) / (1 54E+15 sej/ha/yr) = 6.1


3B-11








suggests a greater return on labor and investment than either rainforest wood or sago palm production. More
than seven times as much solar emergy is contributed from environmental sources than from outside goods
and services delivered outside the village as illustrated by an investment ratio of 0.14. An ecological support
area of 6 ha means that six hectares of surrounding environment is required or "used" by villagers indirectly
in support of one hectare of sweet potato gardens


In each of these studies, as well as the analysis of tourism (Section D), it is clear that resources from
surrounding areas are needed to support not only production or proposed development, but the people
themselves. In fact, it is this "ecological support area" that determines the large net yields for rural
production systems. It is therefore unreasonable to assume that much of the country could be opened
for development since a large portion of it is required for support of rural production systems, the people and
their lifestyles. Further, cash crops and tourist activities generally draw emergy away from local production
systems because, as shown in Section A, the revenues cannot purchase an equivalent amount of solar emergy
as was sold to overseas buyers These issues will be further explored in the Recommendations and
Conclusions Section of this report.


3B-12









Section C: Rainforest-Land Rotation Model


by S.J. Doherty



INTRODUCTION


Large scale clear-fell logging operations in the tropical lowland rainforests of Papua New Guinea began in
1973 with the Gogol/JANT timber project This operation has since cleared all of its 68,140 hectares at an
annual cutting rate of 3-4000 hectare per annum (Seddon 1984). Eighty-seven percent of the cleared areas
have naturally reverted to secondary rcgrowih and grasslands, while only 4800 hectares (13%) have been
actively reforested (Qureshi et al 1988). A study of the site indicates that primary and secondary trees
account for only 15 and 1 percent, respectively, of the abandoned clear-fell area (Saulei 1984). Further, most
of the regrowth was achieved by coppicing from old tree stumps and germination of the stored seed bank in
the soil. There is little indication of seed dispersal from adjacent forests (Saulei 1984).


At the time of this research, forestry stalT indicated that the government had put a halt on all forestry projects
until a thorough assessment of the costs (including land, forest products, and money lost overseas) incurred
from the Gogol Valley project is complete. Due to problems of slope, heavy rains, and increased runoff with
land clearings. forestry) projects are met with limited success in most parts of Papua New Guinea. A better
understanding of the role of forest seed reserves left in place to aid secondary succession through
recolonization of forest species and the multiplicative effects from clearcuts of increasing size are sought to
alleviate some of the problems of the past. As an initial inquiry into the problems with forestry in lowland
rainforest areas of difficult terrain, a computer simulation model was developed to explore the relationships
between forest production, harvest rates and the rotation of lands between forested and unforested states.


MODEL DESCRIPTION


A theoretical model of timber extraction and the resulting patterns of landscape disturbance is presented
which addresses some of the problems caused by large scale clear-culling and raw resource extraction in
lowland rainforests. The model, shown in Figure C-1, rotates land area between three


3C-1









































Figure C-1. Energy systems diagram of the rainforest-land rotation model Variables (k1) are pathway coefficients; their mathematical
expressions are given in Table C-1 and explained in the text.











400


25 50 75 100 125 150
Years


Output of modcl simulation of rainforest growth and net primary production over 150 years. A mature steady state forest
(NPP= 0) takes 143 years.


10.0





7.5 .
0
OT




5.0 Z
0



I-
2.5
Z


300





200





100


Figure C-2.








conditions: 1) native forest [F] (though mostly second growth). 2) cleared land [C] immediately following
harvest; and 3) degraded land [D] which results from both the scale of clearcuts as well as erosion of exposed
top soil from the run off of heavy rains. The percentage of land that is forested [F] is directly proportional to
amount of forest biomass [B] present. Forest biomass changes as a function of its own mass, respiration, and
the environmental inputs which drive production as well as the rate of land returning to forest.


The systems diagram is a visual expression of the mathematics which determine the flows and storage within
the model. A set of calibrated values for initial storage and flows were determined for steady state forest
production (Table C-1). Data were synthesized from Saulei (1984), Brown and Lugo (1984), Odum (1971)
and Vitousek et al (1971). A mature tropical lowland rainforest was estimated to have a standing crop of 380
tons/ha (item 2, Table C-1) and an a% crae annual gross production of 42 tons/ha/yr [20,000 kcal/m2/yr]
(item 6). These values were calibrated to determine transfer coefficients (k) for each pathway and rates of
change for state variables when the model is simulated (items 5-12). A computer program written in BASIC
is listed in Table C-2. In this program are the mathematical expressions that represent pathways and rate
equations that represent changes in state variables.


The environmental energy driving forest production was considered the amount of incident rain that is
transpired. This is a flow-limited source; only a given amount of rain is available during any given time
period (3.73 m/year). Thus forest production is limited if all incident rain is transpired [initial capture was
estimated as 60% of incoming rainfall for a mature forest; see Table C-1 (1)]. The more biomass that is
present the greater the percentage of incoming rain that is transpired, and less is runoff. Notice that some
pathways are connected to state variables by a small rectangular box. This symbol, called a sensor, indicates
that the state variable changes in proportion to the flow or storage where the symbol is located, but does not
directly draw from that flow or storage. In the example of degraded land [D], cleared land [C] becomes
degraded as a function of the amount of runoff [R] -- the greater the amount of rain that is unused and
ninoffs, the greater the rate at which rcLently cleared land becomes degraded


3C-3









Table C-1. Calibration of variables and coefficients for Rainforest-Land Rotation Model
(RF ver_2.BAS) corresponding to systems diagram in Figure C-1.


Sources:
1 Total incident energy inflows (JO):
a. Energy used by system (kO*R*B):
b. Available energy, unused (R):


184.3
110.6
73.7


E+9J/ha/yr
E+9 J/ha/yr
E+9 J/ha/yr


State variables:


2 B = Forest biomass (380 tons/ha):

3 Land quality types:
a. F = Forested land =
b. C = Recently cleared land =
c. D = Degraded land =

4 Mangement switch: H = Harvest


Flow equations (E+12 J/ha/year):

5 Available incident energy
6 Average annual production
7 Annual harvest
8 Forested land that is cleared
9 Cleared land that is degraded
10 Cleared land returning to forest
11 Degraded land returning to forest
12 Forest metabolism


7.603 E+12 J/ha


1 ha
1 ha
1 ha

1 = begin cutting
0 = stop cutting


R = JO/(1 + kU*B*F) =
kl*R*B*F =
k2*B*H =
k3*F*(k2*B*H) =
K4*C*R =
k5*C*B2 =
kb*D*B =
k7*B =


0.0737;
0.8372;
0.4186;
0.0551;
0.0275;
0.0275;
0.0275;
0.8372;


FooiLteCs to Table C-1

1 Chemical potential energy in transpired rainfall:
annual rainfall = 3.73 nm/yr; evapotranpiration = 60 %; runoff (100 %ET) = 40 %

Total energy coming in (JO): (3.73 m) (10,000 m2) (1000 kg/m3) (4940 J/kg) = 1.8426E+11

b. Incident energy used by forest system = evapotranspired rain (k04 R*B) = (% ET) (JO) = 1.1056E+11 J/ha/yr
c. Available energ., unsed = runoff [remainder (R)] = JO / (1 + kO*B) = (% rnuff (JO) = 73704E+10 J/ha/yr

2 Energy in forest biomass [(B) after 143 years of growth; (36 yrs to reach 50% of steady state storage]:

Organic matter in stemwood biomass = 380 tons/ha (Brown and Lugo 1984);

Caloric content per unit mass = 4.78 kcal/g (E.P. Odum 1971)
(380 tons OM/ha) (1E+6 g/ton) (4.78 kcal/g) (4186 J/kcal) = 7.603E+12 J/ha


3C-4


kO =
kl =
k2=
k3 =
k4=
k5=
k6 =
k7 =


0.197291
1.494009
0.055057
0.131527
0.373502
0.000476
0.003621
0.110114










Footnotes to Table C-1, continued.

3 Rotational lands: At steady state calibration, each land cover type occupied 1 ha (1/3 total area).

4 Harvest (H) is a management switch that is turned on (1) or off (0) to initiate or stop forest cutting based on extent of
forested land available.

5 Available incident energy = unused chemical energy from rainfall (i.e., runoff); see lb.

6 Annual production (GPP = kl*R'B) = 20,000 kcal/m2/yr, Viluusck 1971):

(2.OE+4 kcal/m2/vr) (10,000 ms/ha) (4186 J/kcal) = 8 372E+11 Jiha/yr = 41.84 tons OM/ha/yr

7 Annual harvest (k2*B*H) considered 50% of annual production at steady state:

(0 837E+12 J/ha/yr) (501 ) = 0.4185E+12 J/ha/yr cut (21 icns/ha/yr)
then, (0.- 18 5E+12 J/ha/yr) / (7.603E+12 J/ha mature forest biomass) = 5.51 .

8 Forested land cleared [k3 'F* k2*Bl H.] = constant percent of harvested biomass: 5.51% (F)= 0.055 ha/yr

9 Cleared land that is degraded t4 C R) = 50q;

10 Cleared land returned to forested land (k5*C*B') = 50%; (0.0551 ha) (50%) = 0.0275 ha/yr

11 Degraded lands returning to forested lands (k6*D*B) = 50%

12 Annual forest metabolism (Respiration + Death = k7*B):

NPP = GPP Respiiation; at steady state NPP = 0, therefore GPP = Respiration:
kl*R*B*F = k7*B

Forest turnover time: (forest biomass) / (annual production) =

(7.603E-12 J/ha) / (0.837E+12 J/ha/yr) = 9.08 years = 11.0 % annual replacement


3C-5









Table C-2. BASIC computer program used in simulation of Rainforest-Land Rotation Model.


REM filename: RF ver 2.BAS
REM PNG Rainforest Land Rotation Simulation Model
CLS 'Clears monitor for new simulation
REM Opens output file to store data for graphic analysis:
'OPEN "B.\RF-OUT.PRN" FOR OUTPUT AS #1
REM Sets coordinates of graph for monitor display:
SCREEN 1, 1: COLOR 0, 1
REM Colors are defined at end of LINE and PSET statements as:
REM 1 = blue; 2 = purple; 3 = white
LINE (0, 0)-(300, 180), 3, B
LINE (0, 100)-(300, 100), 3, B
LINE (0, 45)-(300, 45), 3, B
REM Initial values:
I= 1
T=1
REM Management switches:
CUT = 2.9
GROW = 1
H= 1
REM Scaling factors:
FO =25
CO = 25
DO = 25
BO = .25
YO = 60
TO= 1
REM Inputs (chemical potential energy driving gross production):
JO = .18426
REM Initial Storages:
B = .76
F=I; C=l;: D=1
REM Transfer coefficients:
kO = .197291
kl = 1.494009
k2 = .055057
k3 = .131527
k4 = .373502
k5 = .000476
k6 =.003621
k7 =.110114
REM Sets X,Y coordinates for monitor display:
PSET (T / TO, 45 Y YO), 1 Yield (Y) is displayed in top graph
PSET (T / TO, 100 B / BO), 2 Biomass is graphed second from top
PSET (T / TO, 170 C CO), 3 Cleared land is displayed in lower graph
PSET (T / TO, 160 D DO), I Degraded land is displayed in lower graph


3C-6









Table C-2, continued.


110 REM Management alternatives:
111 IF F > CUT THEN H = 1 Begin harvesting
112 IF F < GROW THEN H = 0 Stop harvesting, allow forest recovery
120 REM Mathematical model:
121 R= JO / (1 +kO*B*F)
122 Y = k2 B H
123 Ytot = Ytot + Y
130 REM Difference equations:
131 DB = (kl R B F) (k2 B H) (k7 B)
132 DF = (k5 C B A 2) + (k6 D *B) (k3 F k2 B H)
133 DC = (k3 F* k2 B H) (k4* C* R) (k5* C B A 2)
134 DD=(k4*C*R)-(k6*D*B)
140 REM Rate equations:
141 B = B + DB
142 F = F + DF
143 C = C + DC
144 D = D + DD
145 T = T + I
150 REM Prints data to output file identified in line 20 of program:
151 PRINT #1, T, Y, B, C, D
200 REM Subroutine 1: Loop counter to simulate model for 300 years:
210 'LOCATE 15, 1
211 'PRINT "NPP="; 'PRINT USING ####.###"; ((kI R B F) (k7 B))
220 IF T / TO < 300 GOTO 100
221 GOTO 400
300 REM Subroutine 2: Loop counter to determine which management alternative
301 REM results in maximum total yield (Ytot) over 300 year rotation:
302 REM Note: must disable lines 200-221for subroutine 2 to work.
310 REM Sets X,Y coordinates for monitor display
311 REM (Total biomass harvested as a function of forest rotation):
312 PSET (GROW*GROWO, 180 -Ytot / YtoIO), 1
320 REM Simulate total yield under different harvest and fallow requirements:
322 IF GROW < 3 THEN GROW = GROW + 0.05
323 IF GROW >= 3 THEN GOTO 400
330 REM Reset initiation values:
331 T = 1
332 Ytot = 0
340 GOTO 60
400 END


3C-7








The amount of forested land available for reseeding acts as a control over the rate of biomass production.
Here, biomass [B] is increased proportionally to the change in forested land [F] as indicated by the pathway
expression kRBF. This is a measure of gross primary production (GPP). For initial calibration, the model
was set at steady state for a mature rainforest. At steady state, there is no net primary production (NPP), and
forest respiration (R, defined as forest metabolism and death) was calculated to equal gross primary
production [(kB) = (klRBF)].


As an approximation of the effects of spatial scale of land clearings on seed dispersal from forest biomass, a
sensor was put on the biomass variable which controls the rate at which cleared and degraded lands return to
forest. If there is too little land left as seed refugia, the successional ability of forest clearings is slowed by
lack of seed reserves. Cleared land, however, can be cycled back to forest as a square function of the biomass
because of its limited scale (k5CB2). As more of the forest is cut, more land becomes cleared and
consequently more land becomes degraded. The rate at which cleared land becomes degraded [D] is a
function of the amount of cleared land [C] and amount of runoff [R] due to low forest cover--thus the
pathway expression k4CR. The gravity model suggests that communication (in this case genetic dispersal by
seeds) is a phenomenon of the squared distance between two objects (Forman and Godron 1987). Once land
has become degraded it is more difficult for secondary succession to regenerate forest. Therefore degraded
land only cycles back to forest as a simple multiplier interaction with biomass as a control (k6CB). Finally,
cutting of forest biomass is activated with a switch [H], representing goods and services, that is either on (1)
or off (0). Thus a certain percentage of forest biomass is harvested as a function of the transfer coefficient k2.


In the initial calibration, forests were cut at a rate equal to 50% of average annual production or about 5% of
mature forest biomass at steady state [Table C-1 (7)]. This value was chosen as it closely approximates the
harvest schedule of Gogol/JANT. Each of three land conditions were given equal area (1 ha each, totalling 3
ha) for model calibration. Since the model tracks biomass on a per hectare basis, the results of the model can
be interpreted per hectare. Thus, each land type can be considered to represent a percentage of the total (i.e.,
1 = 33% of land total). Management switches, therefore, rotate forest land between values of 0 and 3 (0%
and 100%). Next, a few outcomes of model simulation are given to illustrate trends and forecast predictions,
followed by some simple management recommendations based on insights gained from the model.


3C-8








MODEL SIMULATION


First, only the forest production and metabolism components of the model were run in order to determine
forest maturation and turnover times. Based on 3.73 meters of incident rainfall driving an average gross
primary production (GPP) of 42 tons/ha,' r, about 140 years is required for the system to develop a mature
forest of 380 tons OM/ha (Figure C-2). Maximum net primary production (NPP) was measured at 34 years
(9.4 tons OM/ha/yr). At a mature steady state gross production is balanced with forest respiration and net
production equals zero. These calibrations suggest that this forest system has an annual replacement rate of
about 10% (Table C-I).


State variables and production processes are calibrated in energy units (J/ha for biomass storage and J/ha/yr
for production and harvest yields). Therefore in order to express model outputs on a volume basis, the values
must be converted using an energy content of 4.78 keal/g (20000 J/g) and the estimate for biomass volume
(380 tons OM/ha). These conversions are gi\ en in Table C-1 and discussed in the text.


The next step was to simulate the model using all state variables, i.e. incorporating the rotation of land
storage with forest production and harN esting schedules. Forest harvesting is started and stopped with a
switch (H) in the program, based on management alternatives which are input by the user. Two variables
determine the harvesting schedule: CUT and GROW (lines 110-112). The forest is allowed to grow until its
land area reaches a value set by the variable cuT, at which time harvesting begins until the forested area is
below a value set by variable GROW (lines 50-53). Input values range between 0 and 3 (0% and 100% of land
area as explained in the methods).


A management period of 300 years was chosen in order to simulate long-term trends based on forest growth,
harvest schedules and land rotations. Thus, annual changes in forest production, harvest volumes and land
cover are re-calculated each time the program loop is executed for 300 iterations subroutinee 1). This
simulation period allows a natural forest to complete two full successional cycles of growth (143 years to
mat ural ion') and the biomass to turn over more than 20 times, as well as adequate time to observe trends from
harvest schedules and land rotations.


3C-9








In the example in Figure C-3, the rainforest was allowed to grow until it reached 57% (curr = 1.7) of the total
land area. Harvesting then began until the amount of forested land was reduced to 30% (GROW = 0.9), at
which time cutting is stopped and the cleared and degraded lands begin to recover to forest. This
management schedule resulted in a rotation of about 60 years. Forest biomass (middle graph) recovers
quickly as secondary growth is most rapid in early stages of succession. Before net production begins to
decline as the forest matures toward steady state, the forested land is again harvested when it has recovered
57% of the land in rotation. Lands rotate between forested, cleared and degraded states (lower graph--
forested land is not shown as it changes in direct proportion to forest biomass). Harvest yields (upper graph)
are greatest at initial cutting when biomass is highest, and declines in volume as the return per unit harvesting
effort increases. In this example, yields range between 5 and 7 tons/ha/year, on average with a total yield of
870 tons/ha over 300 years.


In a series of computer runs, the minimum amount of forest land required before harvesting was discontinued
was held constant (i.e., GROW = 0.9; 30%) while the extent of recovered forest land required before
harvesting could begin again (i.e., CUT) was changed by increments of 0.05 (approximately 2% change in
total land cover). The harvest schedule described above (and shown in Figure C-3), rotating forested land
between 30 and 57%, was determined to yield the greatest volume output over the 300 year simulation period,
without degrading forest lands to an unrecoverable extent.


Figure C-4 shows the results of this simulation, changing both the harvest times and recovery times (given as
subroutine 2 in program). Here the total yield over 300 years is calculated based on extent of forest land
necessary before harvesting can begin as well as the minimum extent at which time harvesting is stopped.
Forest yields are reduced as a function of the extent of forest land required by management for a particular
rotation schedule. It appears that maintaining forest land extent between about 60% (before cutting begins)
and 30% (when cutting stops) yields the greatest volume of biomass while still allowing the land enough time
and resources to recover to forest.


3C-11







































Years


Simulation of biomass yield (upper graph), rainforest growth (middle), and land rotations (lower) based on 57/30 harvest
schedule over 300 year management scenario (start curling when forest land reaches 57% of total land area; Stop cutting when
forest land reaches 30%).


Figure C-3.











1000


800 / A % Forest land before
,,/ / harvest begins [CUT]
S\ /\ s7
,o. 6 00 \ ,\

%- \ 72
600




& 400




200




0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% Minimum forest land [ R ow]

Figure C-4. Simulation of total harvest yields over 300 years (Y-axis) due to changes in minimum and maximum allowable land rotations.
X-axis is the minimum amount of forest land allowed before cutting is stopped [GROWl. Graphed are results based on forest
land requirements of 30%, 57%, and 72% necessary before cutting is again started [ctr].










DISCUSSION


The rainforest-land rotation model presented here simulates forest production and recovery based on
harvest schedules and rotation of land between forested and two states of post-clearcut lands. It makes
an attempt at accounting for conditions of increased runoff from forest cover removal compounded by
high rainfall and mountainous terrain. Forest operations in Papua New Guinea have faced these adverse
conditions with limited success in the past (Saulei 1984 and Seddon 1984). It is shown that previously
forested lands can quickly degrade and that degraded land is slow to recover. Further, the ability of cleared
lands to reforest is not a simple linear function of available forest seed reserves; harvest schedules, recovery
times, proximate forest reserves, and spatial extent of clearcuts, among others, all contribute to successful
and sustainable forest management practices. The model illustrates some of these principles. If for example,
har\ testing began before the forest had recovered, cleared lands became degraded and land could no longer
recover. Also if the forest is not cut before the forest begins to mature and net production declines, total yield
also declines.


A question not addressed with this model is "what is the optimum harvesting schedule not only for
maximizing yield but minimizing investment" -- i.e., optimizing effort. Forest plantations are generally
managed on rotations that cut the forest when it is at its maximum net production (the inflection point in
Figure C-2; 34 years). In fact the rotation schedules determined by this model to maximize yields include this
interval. Further, forest trees could be harvested in small quantities but at very rapid intervals so that the
effect is an almost continual thinning program. This combination, hocw evr, would not reduce investment
inputs but rather increase them, diminishing the net return on investment.


An evaluation of solar energy supporting forest production as well as the solar emergy in required economic
investments may provide the information needed to determine net yield and investment ratios for forest
schedules. The subsystems analysis of forest operations in New Britain (Section B) found that 3 times as
much solar energy is contributed from environmental sources than from the main economy in rainforest
harvests, providing a net yield on investments of about 4 to 1 (Table B-1). In New Britain, annual harvests
were estimated to be about 2% of standing crop--a rate slower than reported by Gogol/JANT and slower than
the 5% cutting rate used in this model.


3C-14








These questions of net return and investment should be addressed as a next step of model development, using
solar emergy as a baseline unit of measure. As in the past, rainforests, their services and products, will
continue to play important roles in the quality of life of nationals and the sustainable development of their
resource base. This was demonstrated in calculation of macro-economic values for forest reserves (Table A-
5) and in the 4:1 net yield ratio determined for forest operations in New Britain. The few general
recommendations that are given here are based on energetic, temporal and spatial considerations. This model
of forest-land rotation is presented as an exercise to investigate some of the problems forest operations are
faced within diverse rainforest si semns on diflicult terrain and to begin considering han testing schedules that
are appropriate for a given set of site conditions. Management goals ultimately should pertain to more than
just resource output yields and begin to ensure the full range of ecologic values and functions remain intact.


3C-15









Section D: Emergy Basis for Determining the Carrying Capacity of Tourism

by Mark T. Brown and Richard C. Murphy



INTRODUCTION


With the recently increased emphasis placed on tourism and on attracting economic investment for tourism
development by many governments around the world, some hard questions are beginning to emerge. Is
tourist development the cn% ironmentally benign industry it is touted to be? Is tourist development beneficial
to local cultures and economies? Is tourist development a form of sustainable development that should be
encouraged in developing economies of the world?


This portion of the study investigates the relationship of outside investment, in general, and tourism
development, in particular, to cultural and environmental integrity, and to local economies, regional welfare,
and international balance of payments. Using data from tourism development in New Britain, Papua New
Guinea and a related study in Nayarit, Mexico, and techniques of energy analysis, several questions related
to economic development are addressed: (1) What is the carrying capacity for outside economic investment
within local, undeveloped regions that is environmentally and culturally benign and economically beneficial?
(2) What are the benefits and costs of differing intensities of development? (3) W\\hat intensity of economic
development is most beneficial to the economy and welfare of populations?


Ecotourism and Intensity of Economic Investment


Recently. ecotourism (Laarman and Durst 1987, Boo 1989) has been coined to mean a variety of things, but
primarily to mean tourism that has an ecological imperative. Ecotourism should not only seek to expose
tourists to the environment of a region, but should also be balanced with the local environment and not cause
cultural degradation or serious economic shifts. There is much in the literature documenting the
consequences of large development projects on the culture, environment, and economy of relatively
"underdeveloped" regions (e.g., Archer and Sadler 1976; Archer 1985; Burn 1975; Caribbean Tourism
Research Center 1976, 1977 a, b; Cohen 1978; Edelman 1975 a, b; Jenkins 1982; Oliver-Smith et al. 1989;
Rodenburg 1980). Some of the documented impacts are as follows:


3D-1









Cross-cultural contacts result in changes in traditional dress, habits, values, ethics, and social
organization.

Local economies become more externalized as wages are paid to populations who never used
money before and who have to import goods and resources to purchase.

Additional strain is placed on the environment to provide food, building materials, and other
services like waste recycling, which result in loss of environmental value and capacity for
support of the population.

Local control of resources like land and water is lost as the result of their sale to foreign
investors.


In all, the larger the development and its intensity, the greater the potential for negative impacts on culture,
environment, and economy (Jenkins 1982, Rodenburg 1980). Thus, ecotourism that seeks to expose the
traveler to a natural environment without regard to the effect a visitor's presence has on that environment may
not be sustainable in the long run. To be truly an ecotourist development, it should neither exceed the
carrying capacity of the local environment and culture, nor cause secondary or tertiary environmental
degradation.


Tourism as an Extractive Industry


Economic investments in undeveloped regions of the world are, for the most part, investments in extractive
enterprises. The investments are used to assemble the technology and pay the human labor necessary to
extract resources and sell them for more than the costs of extraction. In a way, tourist development is an
extractive enterprise. The resources are more varied: sun, wind, waves, and scenic vistas, as well as an
unspoiled environment and a dissimilar culture. Unlike other extractive industry, the tourist industry does not
cut, dig, or catch its resource and thereby exhaust the reserve. Yet with over-exploitation, the tourist resource
is "used up" (Maihicson and Wall 1982). Too many tourists translates into loss of environmental quality and
shifting of the local culture away from traditional elements that were of interest, toward the values, customs,
and fads of the outside culture.


The question regarding outside investment and its sustainability is: how much is too much? At certain levels
of investment and for certain resources, the extracted resource may last indefinitely because it is renewed at a
rate that is equivalent to or less than the rate at which it is extracted. Under these circumstances the
development is often described as sustainable. As in other types of extractive investments, tourism


3D-2









dc clopment has an appropriate intensity of investment at which it will not exceed the ability of the local
environment and culture to absorb it (Edelman 1975a,b; Gunn and Jafari 1980). Determining the appropriate
intensity of development that does not cause negative cultural, economic, or ecologic impacts is what is meant
by determining the economic carrn ing capacity of an external investment.


The Benefits and Costs of Economic Investments


For many years, economic investments in undeveloped and developing regions have been considered
beneficial to the local economy. The increased number of jobs and higher wages were cited as proof of the
positive benefits of investment. For the most part, it has long been believed that the bigger the project, the
greater the benefit to the local economy, since bigger always translated into more jobs and greater payrolls.
In fact, the opposite in many cases was true. Large projects often displaced local populations, disordered the
environment, and disrupted the local economic system. Smaller projects, scaled to the local economy and
social organization, were better integrated into the cconoms and caused less social and environmental
disruption (Jenkins 1982, Lichty and Steinnes 1982, Rodenburg 1980).


It appears that an economic investment from outside can either act to amplify existing social and ecologic
order and stimulate the local economy, or it can act as a disrupt ive force, much like a disaster. In fact,
"economic earthquake" might be a fitting way of describing what happens to local, small-scale economies and
social organization when large-scale investments occur. The greater the differences in intensity between
existing systems and imposed developments, the more disaster-like they become.


The Disappearing Benefits of Economic Investments


Experience has shown that some economic investments have not yielded the benefits to local economies that
were anticipated (Oliver-Smith et al. 1989). This results from several different but complementary factors:
First, investments from outside must be repaid. Considering current interest rates and the emergy trade
advantage enjoyed by most developed nations over undeveloped nations, investing nations receive far more
from their investments than just repayment of principle and interest (Odum 1984, Odum et al. 1986, Odum
and Arding 1991). The undeveloped nation finds that more national wealth flows out of their economy than
flows in as the result of an unfavorable emergy exchange ratio. Second, if the investment is from sources
outside the region, little of the currency generated by it remains %w within the local economy (Oliver-Smith et al.


3D-3









1989). Other than a local payroll and some user taxes, if a development project uses funds from elsewhere
and is foreign owned, most of the currency generated is "drawn" back outside the region as profit and debt
service. Third, the currency that is added to the local economy causes local inflation (Oliver-Smith et al.
1989). When more money "chases" the same amount of resources, prices rise.


Unaccountable Costs of Economic Investments


Impact analyses aimed at determining costs and benefits often fail to properly account for costs, especially
social and environmental costs (Archer 1985, Bum 1975, Cohen 1983, Pigram 1980, Wang et al. 1980).
When economic benefit/cost accounting is used, the benefits are easily quantified using a monetary system of
value, but social and environmental costs, since they are outside the monied economy, are often not included
because they are not easily or reliably quantified in monetary units. The resulting picture of economic
benefits is one-sided, showing increased numbers of people employed and money flowing through the
economy, but not including increased costs of social disorder, or loss of environmental systems or services.


Impacts of Economic Investments


Emergy analysis may offer a more complete perspective of the impacts of economic investments on the
ecological and cultural resources of regions. A systems perspective of a region suggests that its ecological,
economic, and cultural systems are closely inter-twined. As a region's economic system changes, for
example, there are resulting changes in its ecological and cultural systems, as the increased economic activity
affects a wider and wider spatial area and may cause changes in values and ethics. The extent of change in
each of these systems is more or less dependent on the extent of change in the other. Figure D- illustrates
the interconnections between environmental, cultural, and economic systems of regions. A balanced and well-
adapted subsistence economy might have the organization depicted in Figure D-la. Ecological resources are
extracted by the economic system, converted to goods, and consumed by cultural components which, in turn,
provide the necessary organizational structure and "manpower" for the economic system. By-products of the
economic system are recycled back to the environment, and information and "good stewardship" are fed back
from culture. The driving forces are renewable emergies shown coming from the left side of the diagram and
the nonrenewable emergy storage from % within The overall system that develops (i.e., the levels of
ecological productivity, economic activity, and cultural organizations is, to a large degree. dependent on the
magnitude of renewable emergy flow and the nonrenewable storage that are available.


3D-4









Economic investment from outside can be depicted like that in the bottom diagram (Figure D-lb).
Investment dollars are used to purchase fuels, goods, and services from outside the local economy. A second
outside energy source now influences the system. As a result of the connections between components of the
regional system, any increase in one compartment affects the other two compartments (whether they increase
or decrease depends on the nature of the interconnections and is not necessarily important at this point). The
bigger the influence of outside investment (that is, the bigger the magnitude of the flows coming from the top
right compared to the flows coming from the left), the greater the impact. The emergy analysis technique
utilized in this study quantitatively evaluates the relative size of both of these driving energy flows in a
regional economy, and suggests that the appropriate intensity of a new economic investment is one that does
not alter their relative proportion significantly (Odum 1980).


The secondary impact of economic investments is also illustrated in Figure D-lb. Economic investments
from outside are made as a means of financing enterprises that either directly extract natural resources (e.g.,
wood, minerals, fuels, or fish) and sell them to outside markets, or to develop enterprises for the conversion
of resources within the local economy (hydroelectric projects or tourist developments). In either case, the
"attracted" investments carry with them a significant debt that must be repaid and which is financed through
the export and sale of resources. The net benefit of investments from outside to the local economy, then,
becomes a matter of determining the balance between what is purchased with the investment, and the
resources that are exported over the long term. Additional insight related to the net benefit from investment
is gained using emergy analysis.


One of the basic principles of the emergy systems perspective is that true wealth comes from resources, not
from money (Odum and Arding 1991). Money can be used to purchase resources, but the moneN in itself is
not representative of wealth. E\ aluating international trade and net benefit from investments using only the
inflows and outflows of currency often shows a monetary balance of payments, but does not take into account
the inflows and outflows of wealth. Often, the investing economy receives double benefit--the resources
extracted directly. and the resources that must be extracted and sold by the developing economy in order to
pay interest on outside loans. Most developing economies seek money from outside sources instead of
seeking resources (the true basis of wealth), and thus often sell their wealth cheaply to purchase economic
goods that have less effect t in stimulating their economy and that do not lead to a sustainable future.


3D-5






















































Figure D-1. Systems diagram of a regional economy having no trade with external markets (top) and
an economy that has developed trade (bottom). Money is shown as dashed lines, and
energy and information flows as solid lines. While invested money may circulate within
the economic system, eventually, like income from exports, it is used to purchase goods
and services from external economies.

3D-6









A Theoretical Approach to Determining Carry ing Capacity of Local Environments


One theory for determining carr, ing capacity is that the scale or intensity of development' in relation to
existing conditions may be critical in predicting its effect and ultimately its sustainability (Odum 1980, Odum
and Arding 1991). If a development's intensity is much greater than that which is characteristic of the
surrounding landscape, the development has greater capacity to disrupt existing social, economic, and
ecologic patterns (Brown 1980, Odum 1980). If it is similar in intensity it is more easily integrated into
existing patterns. For example, because of the differences between a hea% ilv urbanized area and an
undeveloped wilderness area, the appropriate intensity of development in each environment is much different.


Large-scale developments and those N ith greater intensity than the surroundings can be integrated into the
local economy and environment if there is sufficient regional area to balance their effects. Much like the
ecological concept of carrying capacity, where differing environments require different aerial extent of
photosynthetic production for support of a given biomass of animals, environmental carrying capacity for
economic investments depends on the area of "support" over which a development can be integrated. As the
intensity of development increases (and therefore its consumption of resources, requirement for laborers, and
environmental impacts increase), the area of natural, undeveloped environment required for its support must
increase. All other things being equal, the more intense a development, the greater the area of environment
necessary to balance it. Thus, the spacing between developments should increase as their intensity increases.


The methodology described in this report uses emergy analysis to measure intensity of two tourist resorts and
the local environment, and then uses a ratio of purchased emergy to resident renewable emergy as a means of
determining carrying capacity. The theoretical construct and primary assumption is that this ratio is, in itself,
a measure of the intensity of the local economnN, based on how the environmental and cultural systems are
adapted to the level of economic activity present. This is complicated when the local economy is in a state of
flux, to which neither the ecological nor cultural systems have adapted or reached a balanced steady-state
Our rationale for using the current regional intensity of economic activity (the Environmental Loading Ratio)
is that, if a new development is significantly greater in intensity than the surroundings, even if a balance has



Inlcnst) ma\ be measured using any quantity (energy, materials, money, or information) per unit time per unit
area. If one uses energy per unit time, or power, expressed over a unit area, ihe intensity is power density (Brown
19noI


3D-7









not been reached, it may further exacerbate the existing problems of cultural and ecological integration of
change


RESULTS


Systems Diagrams


Figure D-2 is a systems diagram of a region that includes, among other activities, tourism. Tourism is shown
drawing on resources of the local economy and importing resources from outside. The region is shown as
being driven by two main sources of outside emergy: (1) free, renewable emergies, and (2) purchased
emergies (sometimes referred to as nonrenewable since they are based on resources that are nonrenewable).
Inflowing renewable energies combine and interact to drive the productive processes in ecological systems.
Purchased inputs from outside develop systems of extraction and consumption internally, which interact with
indigenous environmental resources to provide resources, emergies and products for use and export. Money
derived from exported resources and from visiting tourists is used to purchase goods and fuels from other
regions


As with any tourist facility or tourist region, there is an image maintained by the combined interaction of the
environment, urban structure, culture. and the development itself. Image is the information that "draws"
people from outside to visit the development The greater the image, the greater the draw. Image is
negatively affected by increased wastes in the environment (pollution), overcrowding, and loss of resources,
including culture, that form the image of a region or development.


Resources are extracted or harvested from marine and terrestrial systems and sold to the local economy or to
the tourist facility. Money paid by tourists for imported goods, fuels, services, and locally derived resources
enters the local economy before exiting the region in quantities equal to the inflows. Increased spending by
tourists drives inflation up if inflows of local and imported resources and fuels are not increased.


A simplified systems diagram of the main driving energies and internal processes of a tourist resort facility is
given in Figure D-3. As in the regional diagram (Figure D-2), image plays a central role in "attracting"
tourists. The regional image is augmented by the attributes of the resort facility including beach, grounds and
landscaping, and assets (or hotel structure and furnishings) The main production function of the hotel


3D-8









































Figure D-2. Energy systems diagram of a region showing the relationship of tourism with the
local economy. Often tourism is a competitive system. competing with the local economy for
goods and resources. Dashed lines are money and solid lines are energy flows.









provides goods and services for tourists by combining potable water, food and liquor, fuels, electricity, goods
and materials, and labor. The assets and tourists are also part of the production function. Money income
from tourists is used to pay for all of the above goods and services, shown as the dashed lines accompanying
each purchased flow of energy. The diagram in Figure D-3 is the diagram from which the emergy analysis of
tourism in Papua New Guinea and Mexico (Brown et al. 1992) were performed.


Emergy Analysis of National Economies


Summary statistics and indices of Papua New Guinea, Mexico and the USA are given in Table D-1. Total
emergy-use (U) varies from a low of 1213 E+20 sej/yr (PNG) to a high of 87,570 E+20 sej/yr (USA). Gross
national product (GNP) varies by 3 orders of magnitude. with PNG having a GNP of only 0.005% of the
USA. Probably the most telling relationships are the various ratios (E-I). The relation between emerg) and
money (sej / $), a measure of relative buying power, shows that the USA has the lowest ratio. Thus when US
dollars are used to purchase goods and services from PNG or Mexico, the benefit to the US economy is 18.5
to 1 and about 1.5 to 1, respectively. The USA has the highest emergy density --3.6 times that of PNG and
about 2.7 times that of Mexico Emergy per capital in the USA and PNG are similar, but result from different
supporting resources. The main emergies driving the PNG economy are inflows of renewable resources
(about 85%) of the economy while nonrenewable resources are the dominant sources of emergy of the US
economy (about 75%).


Total cmcrgx -usec per capital in the USA and PNG is nearly equal. The world emergy exchange ratio, which is
a relative measure of world buying power (or trading advantage), shows that the USA has the highest trade
advantage; it receives, on the average, 1.5 units of emergy for each unit of emergy exported. Mexico's ratio
suggests it receives roughly equal emergy imported for each unit exported, PNG has, on the average, a net
loss receiving only 0.08 units of emergy for each unit exported (an average trade deficit of 13 to 1). The
highest environmental loading is in the USA; it is 30 times that characteristic of the PNG economy.


Emergy Analysis of Tourism


Tables D-2 and D-3 give the results of the emergy analysis of a small, high quality tourist resort on the island
of New Britain, PNG, and a "four-star" tourist hotel in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. The facilities are as different


3D-10












































Figure D-3. A detailed systems diagram of a tourist facility showing the main production function that provides goods and services from the
tourists who are anracted by the resort's image. Dashed lines are money and solid lines are resource flows.




Full Text

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Final Report to THE COUSTEAU SOCIETYEMERGY SYNTHESIS PERSPECTIVES, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND PUBLIC POLICY OPTIONS FOR PAPUA NEW GUINEAStevenJ.DohertyandMarkT.Brownwith R.C.Murphy,HT.Odum and G.A. SmithCFWWRPublication#93-06 Research studies conducted under contract to The Cousteau SocietyCenterfor Wetlands &WaterResources UniversityofFlorida PhelpsLab,P.O. Box 116350 Gainesville, Florida 32611-6350 U.S.A. 1993TheCenterfor WETlANDS& WATERRESOURCES AnEducationlindResearch Unit ofItt,Unive",ity ofRonda

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Final ReporttoTHE COUSTEAU SOCIETYEMERGY SYNTHESIS PERSPECTIVES, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND PUBLIC POLICY OPTIONS FOR PAPUA NEW GUINEASteven1.DohertyandMarkT.BrownwithRC.Murphy,H.T.OdumandG.A.Smith CFWWR Publication#93-06 Research studies conducted under contracttoThe Cousteau Society Center for Wetlands &WaterResources UniversityofFlorida PhelpsLabP.O. Box 116350 Gainesville, Florida 32611-6350 U.S.A. 1993

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PREFACEAmong the most important problems humanity faces today are the managementofnatural resources and the integrationofhuman and natural processes. Thereisa need to understand both human and natural domains, each in the contextofthe other, and itisimportanttodevelop sound management strategies which acknowledge and promote the vital interconnections between the two. Traditionally, a reductionist approachtothe studyofhumanity and nature has dominated.Bycomparison, much less attention has been given to studying the biosphere at the ecosystem leveloforganization.Itisat the ecosystem level, however, where manyofnature's most important processes occur, where human benefits are derived and where our impacts fall most severely. Most regionsofthe planet have already felt the heavy handofdevelopment. Often such activities undermine the natural resource base duetoa focus on short-term benefits. Too often this approach sets in motion long-term processes that drastically affect culture and minimize alternatives for sustainability. There are, though, a few jewels, such as Papua New Guinea, where cultural and natural resources have not yet been eliminated. These regions are coming under greater external pressureto"develop" along the same destructive paths seen elsewhere. Consequently, thereisan urgent need to protect and manage wisely the cultural and natural heritageofPapua New Guinea. For these reasons the Cousteaus committed the "Rediscoveryofthe World" expeditionstoexplore, study and document on film the richnessofPapua New Guinea. Partofthis project has been an investigationofPapua New Guinea's wealth in the broadest sense and an analysisofmajor economic activities (forestry, fisheries and tourism). Supported by membersofThe Cousteau Society, a research team from the UniversityofFlorida, USA, working under the directionofDrs. H. T. Odum and Mark Brown, undertook a substantial research effort to understand the connections among the human and economic sectors and the natural system. Using energy as a common denominator, the study compares and analyzes alternative usesofPapua New Guinea's resources in a search for sustainable strategies. The research effort has shown that Papua New Guineaisoneofthe richest countries in the world: its natural wealth provides people with a qualityoflife, independence and stability, which provide relative immunity from the unpredictable fluctuationsofexternal economics andpolitics. We hope the insights providedbythis report will encourage leaders to implement long-term strategiestoaccomplish oneofthe objectives stated in Papua New Guinea's constitution, "...for Papua New Guinea's natural resources and environment to be conserved and used for collective benefitofus all, and be replenished for the benefitoffuture generations. Richard C. Murphy Vice President for Science and Education Cousteau Society

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSAs partofour effort to evaluate resource management questions in Papua New Guinea, we traveled to Papua New Guinea in the springof1989. Responding to The Cousteau Society's strong interest in education, we offered a short course in techniquesofresource evaluation and systems modeling at the UniversityofPapua New Guinea. We would liketoexpress our gratitude to Dr. Patty Osborneofthe Biology Department, UniversityofPapua New Guinea, for his hospitality and the excellent job he did in organizing our workshop. Without his help we could not have had such an outstanding short course. Participants in that workshop were a most interesting and enthusiastic blendofstudents and government officials and we would like to thank them and wish them well in their endeavorstomanage the resourcesoftheir developing nation. The participants in the short course were: David Coates,FAa,Papua New Guinea; Christopher Hershey, Melanesian Environment Foundation, Inc., Papua New Guinea; William Asigau, DepartmentofEnvironment and Conservation, Papua New Guinea; Charles D. Tenakanai, Fisheries Research-DMFR, Papua New Guinea; Ana Marikawa, Finance and Planning, Papua New Guinea; Malcolm Leveti, Dept.ofGeography, UPNG; Gavera Arua Rei, Melanesian Environment Foundation, Inc. Papua New Guinea; Phille P. Daur, Biology Department, UPNG; Monica T. Rau, Forest Research Institute, Papua New Guinea; Lester Seri, DepartmentofEnvironment and Conservation, Papua New Guinea; Mary Walta, Biology Department, UPNG; Tatsio Matsuoka, DepartmentofBiology, UPNG; Anne Bothwell, DepartmentofBiology, UPNG; Ilaiah Bigilal, Natural History Museum,Papua New Guinea; Harold Ure, USAJD/Radio Science Project, Papua New Guinea; Mathias Ure, DivisionofResearch and Planning, Papua New Guinea; Sir Ebia Olewale, Karawane Pty Ltd., Papua New Guinea; Alois Wafy, DepartmentofFisheries/Marine Resources, Papua New Guinea; Barbara Brett, DepartmentofEducation, Papua New Guinea; Carrie Turk, DepartmentofFinance and Planning, Papua New Guinea; Pins Piskaut, DepartmentofBiology, UPNG; Robert Vonole, DepartmentofEducation, Papua New Guinea. We would also liketothank Max Benjamin, ownerofthe Walindi Plantation on the IslandofNew Britain, who provided a wonderful setting and data that allowed us to evaluate tourism. His dive resort was oneofthe most ecologically sensitive, low energy, and culturally friendly resortswehave experienced...not to mention the most incredible diving we have experienced anywhere in the world.II

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JohnFurby,company secretary for Burns Philp Limited,PortMoresby, provided travel assistance.Dr.David SciencemanofNew South Wales, Australia, visiting scientist with the UniversityofFlorida's Center for Wetlands&Water Resources, helped with logistical support, initiated contacts and supplied preliminary data and literaturesources. His interest and support are greatly appreciated.Anacknowledgement section would notbecomplete without recognizing the pivotal role The Cousteau Society, Captain Jacques-Yves Cousteau, and Jean-Michel Cousteau have playedinsupportingourresearch over the past eight years. Since beginning their seriesofexpeditions titled "Rediscoveryofthe World" they have providedfundsand logistical support forourresearch asweaccompanied the Cousteau teamsonnumerous expeditions. As a result,wehave gained muchinourunderstandingofthe relation ships between humanity and nature and havebeenable to share our insights with governments and citizens around the world.Wecannotthank:the Cousteaus enough for the opportunity they have provided to both research the complex questions facing humanity and to educate leaders, and future leadersofour water planetinhowwemight begin to solve these important questions.iii

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TABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS LIST OF TABLES. LISTOFFIGURES.1.INTRODUCTION Ecological Economics OverviewofPapua New Guinea. Natural History and Ecological Support Base. Economy Systems ViewofPapuaNewGuinea. Study Plan .2.METHODS..Step1:Detailed Energy Systems Diagrams Step2:Aggregated Systems Diagrams..Step3:Solar Emergy Evaluation Tables..Step4:Solar Emergy Indices Step5:Microcomputer Simulation Models. Step6:Public Policy Questions .3.RESULTS SectionA:Emergy SynthesisofPapuaNewGuinea's Resource Base. National Overview ................... Regional AnalysisoftheHighlandsandLowlands .. Emergy Evaluation oflndigenous Resource Reserves. SectionB:Subsystems AnalysesofMajorRuralProduction Systems. ForestryinNewBritain Sago Palm Cultivationinthe Gulf Province. ..... Sweet Potato Farmingina Typical Highland Village. SectionC:Rainforest-Land Rotation Model. Introduction. .... Model Description Model Simulation. Discussion .....IV.iIIviVlll1-2 1-21-31-3 1-51-71-102-22-22-42-52-6 2-16 2-17 A-I A-I A-12 A-17B-1 B-1B-8B-IOC-I C-I C-IC-9C-14

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SectionD:EmergyBasis forDeterminingthe Carrying CapacityofTourism. ........... D-l Introduction. ............................................ D-l Results ............................................D-8Discussion .............................................D-21SectionE:Energy,TimeandEconomicExpectationsinaHighlandVillage ............ -1 Introduction. ............................................ E-l Results ...............................................E-4Discussion ............................................. -10 SectionF: PerspectivesonEmergySupportofIndigenousCultureF-l Introduction. ............................................ F-l ResultsandDiscussion. ...................................... F-24.RECOMMENDATIONSANDCONCLUSIONSTheBasis forWealthinEcologic-EconomicSystems4-1ResourcePolicyPerspectives for PapuaNewGuinea. .......................4-3SolarEmergyBasis for Nation. ..................................4-3Comparisons withOtherCountries................................4-5InternationalTradeandBalanceofPayments4-10RegulationandInvestment ConsiderationsinForestrySector.4-15 TourismDevelopment,EnvironmentalImpact,andtheLocalEconomy. ..............4-17A Defmition for Ecotourism ....................................4-18LITERATURECITEDAPPENDIX:Brochureofcollaborativeworkshoptitled:IntotheFuture:Ecology,EconomicandPublic PolicyinPapuaNewGuinea.May5-10,1990.Co-SponsoredbyTheCousteauSociety,TheDepartmentofEnvironmentandConservationandTheUniversityofPapuaNewGuinea.v

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LIST OF TABLES3A-I. Solar emergy basis for Papua New Guinea's indigenous resource base, imports and exportsin1987. 3A-2. Summaryofmajor solar emergy and monetary flows for Papua New Guineain1987. 3A-3. Overview indicesofannual solar emergy-use, origin, and economic and demographic relations for Papua New Guinea in 1987. 3A-4. Indigenous renewable solar emergy support for highlands and lowlands regions in Papua New Guinea. 3A-5. Storageofsolar emergy in resource reserves within Papua New Guinea. 3B-I. Resource flows supporting rainforest logging in New Britain, Papua New Guinea. 3C-I. Calibrationofvariables and coefficients for Rainforest-Land Rotation Model (corresponding to systems diagraminFigure C-I). 3C-2. BASIC computer program usedinsimulationofRainforest-Land Rotation Model (Figure Col). 3D-I. Comparative national emergy indices for Papua New Guinea, Mexico and the United States. 3D-2. Emergy evaluationoftourist resort on islandofNew Britain, Papua New Guinea. 3D-3. Emergy evaluationoffourstar tourist hotel in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (from Brown et al 1992). 3D-4. Comparative emergy indices for tourist resortsinPapua New Guinea and Mexico. 3E-I. Time budgets for nine-hour work days for highland villagers in Papua New Guinea in 1933 and 1953.viPageNo.3A-2 3A-73A-ll3A-14 3A-19 3B-4 3C-4 3C-6 3D-12 3D-13 3D-15 3D-18 3E-6

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3E-2. Summaryoftime budgets for a168hour-week for Papua New Guinea in 1933,1953 and 1975 and for the USAin1975. 3E-3. A typical daily diet for an adult Papua New Guinea highland villager in 1953. 3F -1. Estimateofsolar emergy basisofindigenous culture in Papua New Guinea based on resident renewable inputs from ecological support base. 3F-2. Macro-economic valueofshared and genetic information on Papua New Guinea culture. 4-1. Summaryofsolar emergy flows and indices for Papua New Guineain1987. 4-2. Solar emergy self-sufficiency and trade balance for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for overview. 4-3. Environmental and economic componentsofannual solar emergy-use for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for overview. 4-4. Population density and solar emergy-use per unit area for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for overview. 4-5. Solar emergy-use, population and per capita use for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for overview. 4-6. Solar emergy-use, gross national products and solar emergy/dollar indices for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for overview. 4-7. Summaryofthe solar emergy evaluationoftourism in New Britain, Papua New Guinea.VllPage No. 3E-7 3E-9 3F-4 3F-6 4-4 4-7 4-84-114-124-134-17

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1-1. 1-2.2-1. 2-2. 2-3. 2-4. 2-5.LIST OF FIGURESMapofPapuaNewGuinea showing its locationinthe Southwest Pacific Ocean, its major rivers, central mountain range, major cities, mining operations and ports. Systems diagramofthe combined ecologic-economic systemofPapuaNewGuinea. Symbols and definitionsofthe energy language diagramming used to represent systems. Simplified diagrams illustrating calculationof(a) net emergy yield ratio; (b) net emergy exchange ratio; and(c)solar transformity. Systemsdiagram illustrating a calculationofinvestmentratio, environ mental loading ratio and netyieldratio for a regionaleconomy.Systems diagram illustrating calculationofinvestment ratio, environmental loading ratioandnet yield ratiofora sectorofaneconomy.Overview diagramofa nation, its environmental resource base, economic component, imports and exports:(a)mainflowsofmoneyand solar emergy; (b) procedure for summing solar emergyflows.PageNo.1-41-82-32-72-10 2-122-153A-1. National summary diagramsofannual solaremergyflowsofPapuaNewGuinea. 3A-2. MapofPapuaNewGuinea showing its inland relief; lowlands coastal plains and highlands above 300m. 3A-3. Systemsdiagram relating solar emergyflowsassociatedwithhighlandsandlowlands regionsofPapuaNewGuinea (datafromTable A-4). 3B-1. MapofPapuaNewGuinea showingitsforestsofknownandpossible development potential. 3B-2. Systemsdiagramofbiomass productionandcuttinginlowland rainforestofNew Britain, PapuaNewGuinea (datafromTable B-1).VIll3A-9 3A-13 3A-183B-33B-6

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3B-3. Aggregated systems diagramofsago palm cultivationinthe Gulf ProvinceofPapua New Guinea. 3B-4. Aggregated systems diagramofsweet potato productionina typical highlands village. 3C-1. Energy systems diagramofa computer simulation modelofrainforest-land rotation. 3C-2. Outputofmodel simulationofrainforest growth and net primary production over 150 years. 3C-3. Simulationofbiomass yield, rainforest growth, and land rotations based on 57/30 harvest schedule over 300 years. 3C-4. Simulationoftotal yield response over 300 years due to changesinminimum and maximum land rotations. 3D-I. Systems diagramof(a) a regional economy having no trade with external markets and (b) an economy that has developed trade.30-2.Systems diagram illustrating the interactionsoftourism with the regional economy.30-3.Detailed systems diagramofa tourist facility showing the main production function that provides goods and services from the tourists who are attracted by the resort's image.30-4.Overview diagrams illustrating USA trade advantage when tourists spend moneyin(a) Papua New Guinea and (b) Mexico.30-5.Schematic diagramsofa coastline showing alternate waysofgrouping tourist resorts within their ecological support regions so as not to exceed economic carrying capacity.3E-I.Systems diagramofapre-World War11village family unitinthe highlandsofPapua New Guinea, circa 1930 prior to industrialization. 3E-2. Systems diagramofamodem family unit in the highlandsofPapua New Guinea, circa 1980. 3F-1. Systems diagram showing the resource basisofcultural and genetic information, and their role in the organizationofthe combined systemofhumanity and nature.IXPage No. 3B-93B-ll3C-2 3C-IO 3C-12 3C-1330-6 30-930-11 30-2030-243E-2 3E-3 3F-3

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4-1.Summary diagramsofecological contributions, imports and export exchanges with the world economy for Papua New Guinea and the United States (values are normalized relative to environmental source inputs).xPage No. 4-9

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Emergy Synthesis Perspectives, Sustainable Development, and Public Policy Options for Papua New GuineaSJ.Doherty and M.T. Brown, editorsINTRODUCTIONPapua New Guinea is at a pivotal point in its history. Rich in both culture and resources, the country is poised between its isolated past and a complicated future. Papua New Guinea is increasingly being drawn into the greater world economy at the expenseofthese rich ecologic and cultural systems. As its population grows and its economy is further incorporated into the world economy, one based on imports and exports, Papua New Guinea is confronted with manyofthe policy questions regarding the exploitationofnatural resources that all developing nations face. This study was undertaken to address specific questions regarding resource utilization and proposed developments in order to identify public policy perspectives for Papua New Guinea and make recommendations for a sustainable future. Systems analysesofthe national economy, its resource baseofenvironmental flows, imports and its exports were conducted. Several subsystems within Papua New Guinea were also analyzed for investment requirements and net contribution to the combined national ecologic economic system. Forest operations, rural production systems and tourism were each analyzed using data obtained from industry experts and the current literature. Resource allocation between highland and lowland regions was investigated based on demographic, socioeconomic and environmental conditions uniquetoeach region. A microcomputer simulation modelofrainforest growth and harvesting was developed to investigate the relationships between land clearings and forest recovery. Energy and time in a highlands village was studied and the conceptofecological support was applied to indigenous cultures. The questionofwhetherornot raw products should be directly shipped outofthe country insteadofusing these resources internally was addressed. A proper balanceofdevelopment and environment was investigated based on the extentoffree indigenous sources which drive the economy. Alternative public policies were suggested which may aid Papua New Guinea in its effort to develop and still maintain its rich cultural and ecological systems.I-I

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ECOLOGICALECONOMICSRegional and national economies are increasingly becoming more global. Issuesofresource development, trade and information exchange are likewise growing in proportion to expanding populations and related activities. Resources neededtosupport human potential today are placing great demandsonour biosphere. The daysoffrontier economics are behind us. Uncontrolled exploitationoflimited resources has proven disastrous in many regionsofthe globe. As economies and ecological support systems become more interdependent, new disciplines are needed to "bridge the gap"ofunderstanding between societies and nature.Itis now clear that neither ecology nor economics alone can address the problemsofour global commons. New measuresofwealth,ofvalue,ofcontributions and production are needed that acknowledge the "natural capital" and "ecosystem services" provided from healthy environments. A new interface is now being recognized called "ecological-economics."Itis an ambitious and necessary attempt to understand the affairsofhumanity and nature as a single, interdependent system. New tools are being investigated to measure wealth, services and production fairly and equitably. In this report we use systems analysis, a holistic approach to studying the combined ecological-economic systemofPapua New Guinea. We use an alternative measureofvalue, based on real contributions to system performance, termed EMERGY, spelled with an "M."Itis a concept which quantifies "energy memory" in products and processes. It is an accounting unitoftotal contributions, directand indirect, used in the generationofa productorservice.Itis a concept derived from understanding whole systems,their interactions and interdependencies, and the resources driving and maintaining them. While most analysesofenergy investment have traditionally been used to investigate efficiency in industrial processes, a broader approach is undertaken here to investigate Papua New Guinea's resource utilization and exchange. Emergy analysis allows comparison and incorporationofenvironmental costs and benefitswith variablesoftraditional economic costs and benefits to provide a more comprehensive perspective for public policy directives affecting the common good.1-2

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OVERVIEWOFPAPUANEWGUINEAThe countryofPapua New Guinea (FigureI-I)lies on the easternhalfofthe islandofNew Guineajustabove Australia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. Its only island neighbor is Irian Jaya, which occupies the island's western half. Together, they form the western endofMelanesia.Itis oneofthe largest countries in the South Pacific with a total areaof460,000lan'including some 600 offshore islands.NaturalHistoryandEcologicalSupportBaseSituated between the stable land massofAustralia and the deep ocean basinofthe Pacific, the islandofNew Guinea is considered oneofthe most mobile zonesofthe earth's crust(Lamer1982).Itis characterized by high seismic activity, widespread volcanism, with young faulted and folded mountain chains being the most conspicuous featuresofNew Guinea. A great central spineofmountain ranges, extends for the lengthofthe island, with few gaps below 2000 m for muchofits length. Between 2 and 10 degrees south latitude, New Guinea lays claim to being the largest tropical island, the highest island, oneofonly three tropical areas with glaciers (Gressitt 1982), as well as a landofa great varietyofvegetation types, and most kindsofenvironments except deserts (Johns 1982). Biologically, New Guinea is oneofthe most diverse habitats on earth, with characteristic groupsofbiota such as the famous birdsofparadise, the tree kangaroos, and the specialized moss-forest weevils. Theindigenous populationsofPapua New Guinea have historically been isolated from the world economy and have only recently been in contact with external markets and political forces (Matthies sen 1962, Howlett 1967, Rappaport 1968, Bulmer 1988). The country's independence only came in 1975 after a cenlul)' ofcomplicated political history and colonial rule. Owing to difficult terrain, plentiful resources as well as cultural mechanisms, the peoplesofPNGremain a fragmented and diverse society with over 700 pidgin languages known to be spoken. The present day inhabitantsofPNGexhibit a diversity that "undoubtedly reflects a lengthy and complex historyofsettlement from outside the area, internal migration and intermarriage" among the many villages (Chowning 1982).1-3

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144 154Wewak30 Bismarck I ___ 3 DSea Q.! !(,.. .. m& c j.. ....:.::rt>" \ ./' SolomonSee /'g" I ,1:, .. ,.)--"""' gO '\I'\l.rhlI1llln GulfofPapuaI ,iA ,.,'repue (1")..... Oulnn. "(tons,1'.>. Indl." /"l'\ "ee"'e ( Oc .Oe."" ....8",.. New t> CoraISee 7.ellhu1tf 1420I '. 1440150 IJtf', Figure 1-1. MapofPapua New Guinea showing its major rivers, central mountain range, major cities, mining operations and roads (from Baldwin etaI1978).

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The country's population is about 3.5 million, but is growing at a rapid 2-3% per year (Qureshieta11988) due largelytoimmigration along its coastal port cities. Villages in the highlands, which has historically been the more populated region, however, have maintained an average populationofabout 200 over thepast30 years even though the country's population has doubled (Bell 1986). Mostofthe immigrant population is settling along coastal areas near ports where a monied economy has developed based mainlyonexportsofunprocessed minerals, timber, tuna, and cash crops.EconomyTraditionally, almost the entire indigenous populationofPapua New Guinea was supported by a subsistence economy based on agriculture. A few groups were hunters and gatherers and those along the coast relied largely on fishing (Howlett 1967). Every village had pigs, though they were more apartofcultural and religious spheres rather than the economic sector (Rappaport 1968). The majorityofinhabitants, however, were cultivators, practicing various formsofswidden agriculture. Trade has always been an important formofexchange which cannot be accounted for in traditional economic terms. Even today, 80-85%ofthe population rely on some formofsubsistence farming (Bell 1986, Qureshi etal1988) and 97%ofall land is still held within customary land tenure systems (Qureshi et al 1988). Contact with a monied economy has meant a shift from subsistence farmingofindigenous crops to crops grown for sale outside the village for the purchaseofmaterials and energy which are increasingly being incorporated into their culture. The economy is still in the early stagesofdevelopment, dominated by agriculture and mining activities (PNG Information Booklet 1986). Since independence in 1975, the national economic policy has aimed at financial stability while "promoting sustained, broad based growth and raising the rural living standards" (Qureshi et aI1988). This is accomplished primarily byencouraging subsistence villagers to increasingly participate in the productionofcash crops either for exportorfor domestic markets. The mining sector now accounts for close to 15%ofthe gross domestic product (GDP) and 60%ofthe money received for exports (Qureshi et aI1988). Present miningofcopper, gold, silver and the prospects for oil exploration indicate that this sector will continue to contribute significantly to the annual GDP (Coopers etal1988). All minerals are extracted and exported directly; there is presently no internal processingofany1-5

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kind. Companies are foreign owned and Qureshi etal(1988) state that PNG receives only the money paid to its people for the work they contribute and through leasingofthe land. Agriculture, while supporting either directlyorindirectly 85%ofthe population, accounts for only 35%ofthe GDP and about 43%ofexports (Qureshi etal1988) in monetary terms. Cash cropping systems constitute 55%ofthetotal agricultural production, with the remaining 45% representing subsistence cultivation. Four tree crops--coffee, cocoa, oil palm and copra--provide about 90%ofagricultural exports (PNG National Statistics Office 1986). Small holder farming tracts produce two-thirdsofthe outputofthese crops, with commercial plantations accounting for the rest. Presently timber extraction and fisheries together account for only 7%ofthe dollar income earned from exports, although both sectors are consideredtohave considerable potential for growth (Qureshietal1988). Exports, making up about 42%ofthe GDP, roughly balance imports in monetary terms. GDP in 1987 was 2.535 billion US$ with a debt service ratio (externalloans/GDP) averaging30%annually (Qureshi etal1988). More than halfofthis foreign financing requirement is related to private industry, predominantly the mining sector. In addition foreign aid and anannual grant from the Australian Government amount for about 37%ofbudget revenue (PNG Information Booklet 1986). The growthofGDP during the seventies averaged 1.2% annually (Galenson et aI1982). With an annual population growth rateof2.4%, the growth in GDP averaged less than half the rateofpopulation increase. GrowthofGDPhas improved over the last few years, averaging 2.3% (QureshietaI1988), due mainly to increased mineral extractions and sales. Becauseofthe continued importanceofsubsistence agriculture, only about 12.5%ofthe labor force is considered formally employed (PNG National Stats. Office 1987a). The remainderofthe labor force is partofthe self-sustaining subsistence economy outsideofthe cash economy.1-6

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SYSTEMSVIEWOFPAPUANEWGUINEAPapua New Guinea is an area,ofincredible varietyofgeomorphology, biota, peoples, languages, history, traditions and cultures. Diversity is its primary characteristic, whatever the subjectofinterest. These relationshipsofindigenous storage, envirorunental and economic inputs and outflowsofPapua New Guinea are shown in the conceptual energy diagram in Figure 1-2. The system's boundaries include the continental shelf to a depthof152 m below sea level (estimate made from map by Espenshade et a11986)toinsure the envirorunental contributionsofmarine resources to the overall economy.Atthe leftofthe diagram, outside renewable sourcesofsunlight, rain and tides are illustrated as input flows driving the natural production systems. These major ecoregions are diagrammed as coastal/mangrove, grasslands, lowland rainforests and montane/alpine rainforests for overview. Mixed lowland rain forests are the predominant life zone, covering as much as 40%ofthe country (Davidson 1983). Geologic uplift is an important input to Papua New Guinea, creating the vast mountain ranges as a land form with great geopotential work stored. The top soils in the highlands valleys are fertile, often up to1.5m in depth (Grossman 1984), and the climate is tropical and monsoonal with a high average annual rainfallof1.2 meters on the coasts to 3.8 m in the central highlands (PNG Information Booklet 1986). The heavy rainfall and steep slopes give risetoextensive rivers, considerable erosion, depositing large quantitiesofalluvial material into the highland valleys and flat coastal plains. These large river systems are shown being driven by the interactionofmountains and rainfall. Large mineral depositsofcopper, gold and silver exist and are being mined and potential hydrocarbon reserves are only beginning to be realized (Hapgood 1989).Itis expected that these storage, although concentrated and exhaustible, will continue to be the major sourceofrevenue from PNG's rich natural resources. Subsistence farming is shown as a subsystem dependent on indigenous sources and energy production in natural systems, with only minimal ties to the main economy. Religion and rituals are still very important in rural villages shown in the diagram as information storage which feedback to the labor and land involved in gardens. Subsistence agriculture and smallholder cash cropping involve the1-7

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ET 8 1_-----t--intereat7' J )1':-----0--rPapuaNewGuinea l Figure1-2.Systemsdiagramofthecombined ecologic-economic system of PapuaNewGuineaforoverview.Shownareindigenoussourceflowsandimports(drawn outsidethesystemframe);major ecological systems, resource reserves, industries,economicsectors, ruralandurban communities,andculture (drawnasinternal components);andexportsandtrade.P=Price.

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most intensiveandwidespread useofPapuaNewGuinea's land resources. Bell (1986),however,notes that many parts ofPNG, perhaps 80%ofthe total area, remainunuseddueto steep topographic reliefandinhospitableclimate.MostofPapua NewGuinea'spopulationisrural with2/3ofthe people involved in subsistence gardening or cash cropping in highlands valleysandcoastal plains. Shifting cultivation with a rotation periodof10-15years, has traditionally been the main basisoffoodproduction for villagers,growingsweet potato, taro, cassava,andsago.These gardensmaybe used forupto5 years ormorebefore anewsiteisselected(Bell1986). Increasingly, small landholdersareconverting landtoproduce cash crops suchascoconuts, coffee,andcocoa.Cash crop farmsandtree plantationsarediagranunedasfuelsubsidized production systems drawing fromtheenvironment.With human derived inputsoffossil fuels, fertilizers,goodsandservicestheenvironmental resourcesareincorporated into the overalleconomyofPNG. Industriesareshownassubsystems drawing from the storageofenvironmentalandgeologic production.Mining,fishing,andforest extractionareshownassubsectors within the overallsystem.Asindicated by their outflow lines, mostoftheir productisnot incorporated or refined withinthecountryandexporteddirectly,contributing only to theeconomic(right hand) sideofthesystem.Hydroelectric power is harnessedfromthe riversandused internally, since it cannot be exportedasa product like otherfuels.Money is shown on the righthandsideofthediagramasdotted linesflowingin opposite directionofenergyflow,actingasa counter current to real products. Notice thatmoneyispayingonlyfor the services ofhumanworkandtherefore not represented on the left hand, production sideofthe systemdiagram.Moneyisnot representedaspaying forthevastworkoftheenvironment.Further,asillustrated in the country diagram, major aspects ofPNG'seconomyareoperating withoutmoneypathways,andtherefore not accompanied by dashedlines.Foreignaidisshownasaneconomicinput with a multiplier action in the returnflowofinterest payments.1-9

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STUDYPLANIn the study that follows, the nationofPapua New Guinea is considered as a system with its large inventoryofindigenous energy storages and flows as well as its interactions with the global economy. The report is organized in four sections: Introduction, Methods, Results and Discussion. Results and Discussion are presented as follows: First, emergy analysis is used to develop perspectives on the country's resource-use and competitive position with other nationsofthe world. Relationshipsofsolar emergy flows to the economy are developed to make policy recommendations based on resource requirements, use and exchange. All major components are identified, including environmental sources, flowsofmoney, human roles, imported goods and fuels, and international exchanges. Highland and lowland regions are evaluated individually as well as analysesofall major, known resource reserves. Indices are then presented which enable comparisonsofemergy measures with thoseoftraditional economics. Analysesofseveral sectorsofPapua New Guinea's economy are then presented: evaluationsofforest operations and tourism on the islandofNew Britain, sago palm cultivation in theGulfProvince, sweet potato production in a highland village. A microcomputer modelofforest-land rotation is presented to investigate the exploitation rates, land clearings and ecosystem response in tropical rainforests. Activities studies are then used to evaluate changes in economic expectations and time spent in varying tasks in a typical highland village from 1930 to the present. Finally, a preliminary analysisofindigenous culture is presented. New concepts such asecological support area, netyieldon investment, environmental loadingandbuyingpowerare presented which may aid the reader in better understanding solar emergy measuresofcombined ecologic-economic systems. Conclusions are then drawn for eachofthese subsystems and an interpretation and discussionoftheimplications and meaningofthe results are given. Finally, these results are used to evaluate management alternatives and make policy recommendations which account for the workofnature and humans in the capital productionofPapua New Guinea.1-10

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Given next is a short listofdefinitions given for key words and concepts used throughout this report. Energy: Sometimes referred to as the ability to do work, with work defined simply as the ability to doorperform something. Energy is a propertyofall things which can be turned into heat, and is measured in heat units (BTUs, calories,orjoules). Emergy:Anexpressionofall the energy used in the work processes that generate a productorservice in unitsofone typeofenergy.Solaremergyofa product or service is the solar energy embodied, through successive transformations, required to create and maintain the product or service. Emergy canbethoughtofasenergymemory-that energy used up and transformed in a long chainofinteractions, culminating in a productorprocess that is being evaluated. Emergy, unlike energy, is not directly measurable, but must be quantified using systems analysis. Emjoule: The unitofmeasureofemergy is the" emergy joule," abbreviated emjoule.Inthis report, it is expressed in the unitsofsolar energy previously used to generate a productorservice, therefore expressed as asolaremjoule (seD. Empower: Power is defined as the ability to influence.Empoweris the flowofemergy per unit time, a measureofpotential influence. Macro-economic value: This is a measureofthe money that circulates in an economy as the resultofsome process. To obtain the macro-economic dollar valueofan emergy floworstorage, the emergy was multiplied by the ratiooftotalemergy use by Papua New Guinea to its Gross National Product(solaremjoules /kinaor sej / US$).Maximum empower principle: Systems that tend to prevail are those that take the most effective advantageofavailable emergy. Systems, economicorecological, accomplish this by: reinforcing productive processes, drawing more resources, and overcoming more limitations through effective system organization. A theory investigated in this study is that patterns which maximizeemergycontribute the most wealth.I-II

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Nonrenewable energy: Energy and material storages that are used at rates that far exceed the ratesatwhich they are produced. Examples are fossil fuels and mineral ores. In each, geologic and environmental processesofheating, compression and concentration occur at a rate much slower than society's consumption. Soil can also be nonrenewableifit is depleted faster than its environmental support system can naturally replenish it. Nonrenewable resources generally have large emergy values since they represent large amountsofbiological and geologic work. Renewable energy: Energy flowsofthe biosphere that are generally constant and reoccurring, and which ultimately drive the bio-chemical processesofthe earth and contribute to geologic processes. Examples are sunlight, rainfall and wind. Eachofthese resources is ultimately limited by its flow rate -systems cannot draw from these sources any faster than they are delivered. Resident energy: These are renewable resources that are characteristicofa region. Transformitv: The ratio obtained by dividing the total emergy used in a process by the energy yielded by the process. Solar transformity is measured as thesolaremjoulesperjoule(sej/J)for a given productorservice. Solar transformities are used to convert energiesofdifferent types to solar emergy in order to compare different energiesofresources, products and services.1-12

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METHODSThis study was undertaken using a "top-down" systems approach. The first step is to construct systems diagrams that are a meansoforganizing large arraysofcomponents, pathwaysofexchange and resource flows that combine to form the combined ecologic-economic systems under study. The second step was to evaluate all resources identified through discussion, literature review and diagramming which contribute to the combined ecologic-economic system under study. The third step involves calculating several indices that relate resource flows and monetary exchange in order to identitY support base, economic vitality and carrying capacity. Finally, public policy options are recommended for proposed development and resource-use sectors.Inorder to determine therelation between resource-use and the gross national product and to better understand and subsystem analyses and resource models in perspectiveofthe national trends, the natural resource base and economyofPapua New Guinea was first synthesized. Subsystems analysesofthe highlands and lowlands, forest operations, tourism and culture were then undertaken. Computer simulation modelswere constructed for forest rotations and offshore tuna and coastal shrimp fisheries operations. Each systemorsubsystem was studied with a similar methodology (steps 1-6) as follows:(I)First a detailed energy systems diagramofeach system studied was drawn as a way to gain an initial network overview, combine informationofparticipants, and organize data-gathering efforts. This was done for the entire countryofPapua New Guinea and eachofthe subsectors that were investigated. (2) Next, aggregated diagrams were generated from the detailed ones by grouping components into those believed important to system trends, thoseofparticular interest to current public policy questions, and those to be evaluated as line items in resource evaluation tables. (3) Solar emergy evaluation tables were set up to facilitate calculationsofmain sources and contributions to each system studied. Resource inputs and yields are reported in each table as general accounting units (tons, joules, kina, US$, etc.) and also evaluated in solar emergy units (solar emjoules) and macro-economic terms to facilitate comparisons and publicpolicy inferences. (4) Indicesofsolar emergy-use and source origin were calculated to compare systems, predict trends, to suggest alternatives, identitY system efficiencies, and which will be successful. (5) For some systems a microcomputer simulation program was written to study the temporal and/or spatial propertiesofan aggregated model. The program was used as a controlled experiment to2-1

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study the effectsofvarying one factor at a time. Data from literature, resource specialists in PapuaNewGuinea, and the solar emergy analyses were used as calibration. Insights on sensitivities and trends were then suggested from computer graphs. (6) Models, evaluations and simulations were used to consider which alternatives generate more real contributions to the unified economyofhumanity and nature in Papua New Guinea. Eachofthese steps are described in detail below.Step1:DetailedEnergySystemsDiagramFor understanding, for evaluating, and for simulating, our procedures start with diagranuning the systemofinterest,ora subsystemofparticular interest. This initial diagramming is done in detail with anything put on paper that can be identified as a relative influence to the systemofinterest, even though it is thought to be minor. The first complex diagram is like an inventory. Since the diagram usually includes environmental and economic components, it might be considered an organized impact statement. The following are the steps in the initial diagrammingofa system to be evaluated:1.The boundaryofthe system is defined. 2. A listofimportant sources (external causes, external factors, forcing functions) is made. 3. A listofprincipal component parts believed important, considering the scaleofthe defined system, is made. 4. A listofprocesses (flows, relationships, interactions, production and consumption processes, etc.) is made. Included in these are flows and transactionsofmoney believed to be important. 5. With these lists agreed on as the important aspectsofthe system and the question under consideration, the diagram is drawn using the following conventionsofenergy language diagranuning (from Odum 1971, 1992): Symbols: The symbols each haverigorous energetic and mathematical meanings (Figure 2-1). An exampleofasystem diagram is given in Figure 3 as an overviewofthe combined environmental economic systemofPapua New Guinea. System Frame: A rectangular box is drawn to represent the boundaries that are selected.2-2

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)Energy circuit. Apathwaywhoseflowisproportional to the quantityinthe storageorsource upstream. Source. Outsidesourceofenergy deliver;ng forces according to a program controlled from outside; a forcing function.Tank. A compartmentofenergy storage within the system storing a quantity as the balanceofinflowsandoutflows; a state variable. Heat sink. Dispersionofpotential energy into heat that accompaniesaUreal transformation processes and storages; lossof potential energy from furtheruseby the system. Interaction. Interactive intersection of two pathways coupled to produceanoutflow in proportion to a functionof both; control action ofoneflowon another; limiting factor action; work gate. Consumer. Unitthattransforms energy quality, stores it, andfeedsitback autocatalyticaUy to improve inflow. Switching action. A symbol that indicates oneormore switchingactions.Producer. Unit that collects andtransforms low-quality energyundercontrol interactions ofhigh-quality flows. Self-limiting energy ieceiver. A unit that has a self-limiting output wheninputdrivesarehighbecause there is a limiting constant qualityofmaterial reactingona cin:ular pathway within. Box. Miscellaneous symbol to use for whatever unitorfunctionislabeled. Constant-gain amplifier. Aunit that deliversan output in proportion to the inputI but changed by a constant factor as longas the energy source Sissufficient. Transaction. A unit that indicates a saleofgoodsorservices (solid line)inexchange forpaymentofmoney (dashed line). Priceisshownas an external source. Figure 2-1. Symbols and definitionsofthe energy language diagramming used to represent systems (from Odum 1971, 1983).2-3

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ArrangementofSources: Any input that crosses a boundary is a source, including pure energy flows, materials, information, the genesofliving organisms, human services, as well as inputs that are destructive. Allofthese inputs are given a circular symbol. Sources are arranged around the outside border from left to right in orderoftheir ability to influence the system (i.e., their solar transformities) starting with sunlight on the left and information and human services on the right. Pathway Line: Any flow is represented by a line including pure energy, materials and information. Money is shown with dashed lines flowing in opposite directionofenergy flows. Lines without barbs to indicate directionofflow, may flow in either direction dependent on the difference between two forces. Outflows: Any outflow which still has available potential energy, material more concentrated than the environment,orusable information is shown as a pathway from eitherofthe three upper system borders,butnot outofthe bottom. Degraded Energy: Energy that has lost its ability to do work according to the second lawofthermodynamics is represented as pathways converging to a heat sink at the bottom centerofthe diagram. Included is heat energy as byproductsofprocesses and the dispersed energy from depreciationofstorages. Adding Pathways: Pathways add their flows when they joinorwhen they go into the same the storage tank. Every flow inoroutofa tank must be the same typeofflow and measured in the same units. Interactions: Twoormore flows that are different, but are both required for a process are drawntoan interaction symbol. The flows to an interaction are connected from lefttoright in orderoftheir solar transformity; the lower transformity flow connecting to the notched left marginofthe symbol (refer to Figure 2-1 for details). Counterclockwise Feedbacks: High-quality outputs from consumers such as information, controls, and scarce materials are fed back from right to left in the diagram. Feedbacks from right to left represent a lossofconcentration becauseofdivergence, the service usually being spread out to a larger area. Material Balances: Since all inflowing materials either accumulate in systems storagesorflow out, each inflowing material such as water or money needs to have outflows drawn.Step2:AggregatedSystemsDiagramsAggregated diagrams were simplified from the detailed diagrams, not by leaving things out, but by combining them in aggregated categories. Simplifieddiagrams have: the source inputs (cross boundary flows) to be evaluated; environmental inflows (sun, wind, rain, rivers, and geological processes, etc.); the purchased resources (fuels, minerals, electricity, foods, fiber, wood); human labor and indirect services; money and2-4

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exchanges; and information flows. Export flows were also drawn. Initial evaluations were useful in deciding what was important enough to retain as a separate unit in the diagram. Components inside the system boundary included: the main land use areas; large storagesoffuel, water, and soil; the main economic interfaces with environmental resources; and final consumers. Interior circulationofmoney was not drawn,butall the major flowsofmoney in and outofthe systems were included.Step3:SolarEmergyEvaluationTablesAll systems studied, including the national overview analysis and subsystems evaluationsofforest production, development and use are summarized using solar emergy evaluation tables with calculationsofinputs and summariesofsolar emergy indices given as footnotes. Each table is presented similarly, with6colunms, each with the following headings:1Footnote2Item3Basic data(J,tons,$cost) 4 Solar transformity(sejlI)5Solaremergy (sejlquantity/time)6Macro-economicvalue(US$,1988)Column One is the line item number, which is also the numberofthe footnote in the table where the sourceofthe raw data is cited and calculations shown. Colunm Two is the nameofthe item being evaluated, which is also shown on the aggregated diagram. Colunm Three is the resource inputs to production, given in units reported by industry accountingorobtained from environmental and statistical abstracts. These are reported as average annual flows (joules, gramsorUS$)per unit volumeorarea, derived from various sources and identified as footnotes (colunmI).Colunm Four is the solar transformity or solar emergy per unit for each input, measured in solar emjoules per joule,sej/J(orsej/gram;orsej/dollar,see definitions below). These are obtained from previous, independent studies (updated from Odumetal1983; McClanahan and Brown 1991, Odum and Arding 1991, and Odum 1991). Column Five is the solar emergyofthe resource input, measured in solar emjoules per year per production output. It is the productofcolunms 3 and4.2-5

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Column Six is the macro-economic value, reported in macro-economic dollars, for 1988. This was obtained by dividing the solar emergy (column 5) by therelationofannual solar emergy-use to Papua New Guinea's GNP in 1988. See definitions below for solar emergy per dollar index and macro-economic value. Inputs and outputs for any evaluated sector is identified on each solar emergy evaluation table and in the text and footnotes using a similar notation. Aggregationsofenvironmental inputs are identified as (I); each setofpurchased inputs associated with a particular process step is summed as (F); and product yields are identified asY;.Any solar transformities calculated as a resultofa subsystems analysis are indexed in the tables by lower case letters(a,b,c...)given as footnotes. This was done in order to separate solar transformities derived from other, referenced independent studies and those that were calculated as a resultofthis study.Step4:SolarEmergyIndices From the emergy evaluation tables, comparative indicesofsolar emergy origins, allocations, exchange, and relations to macro-economic valuation were calculated to draw inferences, gain perspectives, and aid in decisions regarding public policy and welfare.NetYieldRatioThe net solar emergy yield ratio is the solar emergyofan output divided by the solar emergyofthose inputs to the process that are purchased and fed back from the economy (Figure 2-2a). This ratio indicates whether the process can compete in supplying a primary energy source for an economy. Typical competitive fuel sources have been about 4or6 to I, though these favorable ratios are declining as fossil reserves decline increasing extraction and processing costs. Processes yielding less than those available may not be currently economic as primary sources.2-6

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F)/F (Purchased Inflow(FJInflowFrom RenewaD'e oreconomic OUtflow ofNonRenewable Source ConversionUpgradedEnergy(Y) NetEmergy YieldRatio=(Y--(a) w..... --\IIIII / I I/\/ '-_/Imports(A)NationA Nation A; EmergyExchangeRatio(b) Nation. B ImportsExparts(:B--'\ I\,\I. '--",. I,I I ,-/Energy 0A+B+C(aUIn_Transformityof0= -'-''':-:::''':'''=-ofsometype) o (energy) Figure 2-2. Simplified diagrams illustrating (a) the calculationofthenet emergy yield ratio(NYR)for an economic activity where purchased goods. fuels and services are used to upgrade a lower grade resource;(b)the calculationofthe net emergy exchange ratio (ER) for trade between two nations; and (c) the calculationofa solar transfonnity for the energy flow "D" that is a productofthe process that requires the inputof3 different sourcesofsolar emergy.2-7

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ExchangeRatioThe solar emergy exchange ratio is the ratioofsolar emergy received to solar emergy delivered in a tradeorsales transaction.Ifthe market transaction is trade, for example a tradeofgrain for oil, the ratio can be expressed as therelationofsolar emergy supporting each commodity (Figure 2-2b).Ifthe exchange is a saleofa commodity in order to generate revenue to purchase necessary goods or services, the exchange ratio can be calculated as the solar emergyofthe product sold divided by the solar emergy that could be purchased with the earned revenue. This is estimated using the solar emergy/dollar index for the buyer nationorregion. A central theorem investigated here is that the area receiving the more solar emergy duetothe market transaction has its economy stimulated more. Previous studies have indicated that raw products such as minerals, rural products from agriculture, fisheries, and forestry generally tend to have high exchange ratios when soldatmarket price (Brownetal1991, Brown and McClanahan 1991, Odum and Arding 1991). This is a resultofmoney being paid for human services and not for the extensive workofnature that went into these products. The solar emergy exchange ratio is used in this study as a measureofthe relative trade advantageofone trade partner over another.SolarTransformityAs previously defined, this is the relationship between "what it took" to make a productorservice and its actual energy content. All independent contributing resources to a productive process, evaluated in solar emergy, are sururned together as the numerator and divided by the observedoractual energy content in the denominator (Figure 2-2c). The units, therefore, are solar emjoulesIjoule (sej/J). Solar transformities used to convert natural resources, imports and exports in this study are drawn from independent studies [Odum and Odum 1983 (updated in Odum 1991), Odumetal1986, Odum et a11987, Odum and Arding 1991). From emergy evaluations conducted in this study, some solar transformities are calculated for products and servicesofPapua New Guinea and are listed separately (see emergy evaluation table heading descriptions above).Ifsystems are operatingatmaximum power, a solar transformity for a productorservice is a measureof"potential value" to the receiving system. A related theorem investigated here, is that systems will self2-8

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organize over time to develop components and pathways that stimulate productive processes which generateatleast as much as they require.InvestmentRatioThe solar emergy investment ratio (lR) is the ratioofsolar emergy derived from the economy IF]tothe solar emergy delivered free from environmental sources (both renewableII]and nonrenewable [N]) (Figure 2-3):IR=F/(I+N)(1)This ratio indicatesifthe process is economical as a utilizerofthe economy's investments in comparison with alternatives. The larger the IR, the greater the amountofpurchased emergy is required per unitofresident emergy. To be economical, the process should have a similar ratio to its competitors.Ifit receives less from the economy, the ratio is less and its prices are less so that it will tend to compete in the market place. Its prices are less when it is receiving a higher percentageofits useful work free from environmental inputs than its competitors. However, operation at a low investment ratio uses lessofthe attracted investment than is possible. The tendency may be to increase the purchased inputs so as to process more output and generate more cash flow. The tendency is towards optimum resource use. This suggests that operations above or below the current regional investment ratio will tend to change towards the investment ratio common for that region.EnvironmentalLoadingRatioEnvironmental loading ratio (ELR) is a measureofpotential impact or "loading" a particular development activity can have on its environment. It is the relationshipofpurchased emergyIF]plus resident nonrenewable emergy [N] to resident renewable emergyII](Figure 2-3) as follows:ELR=(N+F)/l2-9(2)

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1--+-YieldCYlRenewableInputs .,--.....,,/ \/ I/ I / II "",'--.L \ .-'...._"""" RegionaJ EconomyInvestment RatioofRegional Economy: Environmental Loading RatioofRegional Economy: =(F+N)IINet Yield RatioofRegional Economy: IFFigure 2-3. Systems diagram illustrating a regional economy that imports purchased inputs(F)and uses resident renewable inputs (I) and nonrenewable storages(N).Several ratios used for comparison between systems are below the diagram and are explained in the text. The letters on pathways refer to flowsofsolar emergy per unit time. Thus, ratiosofflows are dynamic and changing over time.2-10

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Nearly all productive processesofhumanity involve the interactionofnonrenewable resources with renewable sources from the environment. Low ELRs indicate relatively small "loading" on the ecosystem support base, while high ELRs reflect greater potential impact. When compared with other ELRsofthe region, an ELR as a measureofenvironmental stress due to a proposed action can be used to address carrying capacity. Evaluating Regional and Local IRs and ELRs Figure 2-4 is a simplified diagramofa regional economy and a sectorofthe economy. The sector uses renewable resources (I,) and purchased goods and services from both the local economy (F..) and external markets (FJ The sector is actually partofthe regional economy, but is shown separately to highlight the comparison between it and the region in which it is embedded. The investment ratio in the regional economy (lR..) is derived using the ratioofpurchased resources (F) to resident emergy (renewable sources supporting the main economy[1m]plus nonrenewables[NmDas follows: (3) The investment ratioofthe sector (IR,') is calculated in a similar manner, accounting for all sourcesofrenewable and purchased resources as follows:(4)The environmental loading for the region and sector within the regional economy are calculated somewhat differently from each other. The regional ELR is calculated as the ratioofnonrenewable (F+N..) to renewable emergy (I..) as before. The ELR for the economic sector, however, has to take into account the portionofFmthat comes from 1m ,since that areaofenvironment is not adding to the "load" on the environmentofthe sector but, in effect is partofthe environmental support for the sector. Thus the ELR for the sector is calculated by subtracting the portionofF",that is from 1m This done by first calculating the total solar emergyofthe main economy (Total solar emergy{U]=Fm+F;+Nm +N,+I... +1,),then dividing by 1mto determine the percentofthe total that is derived from renewable sources supporting the main economy (I...). 2-11

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PurchasedInputs(F)(Imports)Exports.Fuel.I ...ServicesRenewableInputs ....-,/ \I\IIII/ 1-'1--'_-lCnvlronment:.,.ob<=Tlt--1 I Wom III\I '....._/RegionalEccmmY--..:..... ........ Investment Ratio for Economic Sector: Environmental Loading Ratio for Economic Sector: ELR.e
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TheELRfor the sector is then determined as follows: ELR, =[Fi+(Fm-kFm)+N. ]/(I,+kFm) where:k=percentoftotal solar emergy budget for main economy[V]that is derived from environmental sources[I]Determining Carrying Capacitv for Economic Investments(5)Once theELRfor a region is known and the total annual nonrenewable emergy usebya development is determined, the areaofland necessary to balance the development canbecalculated using the average annual fluxofrenewable solar emergyperunit areaoflandscape. This is canbeused as a measureofpower densityofrenewable solar emergy, and is derived from the analysisofthe regionalornational economy. The areaofsupport necessary for a proposed development is here defined as its Carrying Capacity.Todetermine thecarrying capacityofa proposed development, theELRfor the region is calculated (as above), and then the following equivalent proportion is determined: = ELR"roposed developmentwhere: ELR,,,,o" =known ELRd",lopm,,,t =[Fi+(Fm-kFm)+N, ]/(I,+kFm) and the equation is solved as follows:(6) (7)Once the quantity (I,+kFm) is known, the areaoflandscape required to balance the proposed development can be calculated as follows: where: Support area (i.e. Carrying Capacity)=(I,+kFm)/I"gio" l,.,giO" =known power density for renewable resourcesofthe region (sej /m2 )2-13(8)

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RelationofSolarEmergySupportBaseandEconomicProductThe relationofannual solar emergy-use to the gross national productofa country was considered an estimateofthe solar emergy supporting each unitofcurrency circulating in the economy for a particular year (Figure 2-5). As the diagram shows, it includes renewable environmental sources such as sunlight, wind and rain, non-renewable resources used such as fossil and mineral reserves and soil, imported fuels, goods and services. In general, rural countries tend to have higher solar emergy/dollar indices because moreoftheir economy involves direct environmental resource inputs that are not paid for (Odum et al 1983, Odum and Arding 1991, BrownetaI1991).Inthis study, the solar emergy to dollar index calculated for Papua New Guinea in 1988 is used to estimate the amountofdirectand indirect resources supporting each unitofcurrency. This is used to address all inputs and all costs to production sectors, including an estimateofsolar emergy supporting life-stylesofworkers discussed below. Macro-economic Value The term macro-economic value refers to the total amountofdollar flow generated in the entire economy supported by a given amountofsolar emergy input.Itis calculated by dividing the solar emergyofa productorprocess by the solar emergy/dollar index for the economy to which it contributes. This is a wayofputting an monetary value on services and storages not traditionally accounted for in economicssuch as transpired rainfall, photosynthetic production, forest biomass, volunteer labor, parenting and information. This is not a market value, but instead a value for public policy inferences and directives. Estimateofthe Solar Emergy Support BaseofHuman Services The money paid for machinery, fuels and other goods necessary in a production sector pays for the human services involved in the refinement, manufacture and deliveryofthe commodity. By sununing the total solar emergy input to Papua New Guinea in 1988, including environmental sources, fuels and foreign purchases, the amountofsolar emergy supporting the gross national product was estimated, measured as solar emjoules per unit currency (sej/kina or sejIUS$) for that year. This relation was2-14

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RRural 'L __ syetemeE2280laremjoules/yr ,.. II IIIIIIIII/I S ,1,..--; (a)E12S/yr(b)Figure 2-5. Overview systems diagramofa nation. its environmental resource base. economic component. imports and exports (from Odum etalI983):(a) main flowsofmoney and solar emergy;(b)procedure for summing solar emergy inflows and outflows.2-15

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used to assign a solar emergy value to human services in proportion to the money paid for the service, assuming that each kina paid for a productorservice represents a proportional amountofsolar emergy supporting the direct and indirect human labor requirements. By multiplying the monetary costofa commodityorlabor hour by this indexofannual solar emergy flow to monetary flow, an estimateofsolar emergy supporting labor inputs and indirect human services was assigned. Since money is only paid to people for their contributions and not for environmental work, this estimate was derived so that human services could be equivalently evaluated along with other inputs to the forest sector. An average solar emergy base for wages eamed is an estimateofthe lifestyle support requirementsofboth direct forest laborers in Sweden as well as the associated human services that produce and deliver imported commodities. This methodofassigning resources supporting labor in proportion to the money paid is used in other ecological economic accounting methods such as input-output matrix algebra (Costanza 1980, Hannon et a11985) and is not without its limitations (Odum 1992). Other methods are possible. For example, the solar emergy supporting labor can be estimated using an average solar transformityofhuman metabolism for a given socio-economic class. While the method used here is an approximation, some measureoftotal contributions to human work is necessaryifthe real requirements to system production is to be assessed.Step5:MicrocomputerSimulation Models For simulation, the models in the systems diagrams were aggregated further, combining features that were unchanging, small,orbelonging to a more general componentorprocess. The source inputs, boundary flowsofmoney, and the main featuresofproduction and consumption were retained. State variables were identified with descriptive names and mathematical expressions were written for interactions and processes between state variables. These equations follow criteria predetermined by the orientationofcomponents and the relationships identified in the diagrams. Numerical values for flows were written on the pathways and on the storage tanks for the state variables in the systems diagram. Steady states were estimated for expected carrying capacities within the system being modeled and coefficients were determined for each interactive pathway (i.e. mathematical expression identifYing the relationshipoftwo or more state variables over time). These equations, written into BASIC computer language, could then be simulated over time and with changes in inputs or state variables using the2-16

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constructed mircocomputer program. By first identifying the baseline calibration at steady state, one variableata time can be changed in the program to study the effects made by manipulating the system. Graphs were obtained from the computer simulations and included with the text in ordertoillustrate principles made clearer by the simulation models.Step6: Public Policy Questions Public policy alternatives that involve decisions regarding development and useofresources are guided by two criteria in this study:(1)the proposedorexisting activity should increase the total flowofsolar emergy into the economy, and (2) the alternative should be sustainable in the long term. The tools for determining policy options have been outlined above. General thermodynamic principlesofall systems are then used to evaluate these tools and develop criteria for alternative public policies. Development alternatives that result in higher emergy inputs to an economy increase its vitality and competitive position. A principle that is useful in understanding why this is so is the Maximum Emergy Principle (which follows from the workofLotka [1922a], who named it the "maximum power principle"). In essence, the Maximum Emergy Principle states that the system (or development alternative, in this case) that will prevail in competition with others is the one that develops the most useful work with inflowing emergy sources. Useful work is related to using inflowing emergy in reinforcementactions that insure and,ifpossible, increase the inflowing emergy. The principleissomewhat circular. That is, processes that are successful maximize useful work, and useful work is that work which increases inflowing emergy. It is important that the term "useful" is used here. Energy dissipation without useful contribution to increasing inflowing emergy is not reinforcing, and thus cannot compete with systems that use inflowing emergy in self-reinforcing ways. Thus, drilling oil wells and then burningoffthe oil may use oil faster (in the short run) than refining and using it to run machines, butitwill not compete in the long run with a system that uses oil to develop and run machines that increase drilling capacity and, ultimately, the supplyofoil. Development alternatives that do not maximize emergy may not compete in the long run and are "selected against." In the trial and error processesofopen markets and individual human choices, the patterns that generate more emergy will tend to be copied and will prevail. Recommendations for future plans and2-17

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policies that are likely to be successful are those that go in the natural direction toward maximum emergy production. The second guiding criterion is that development alternatives be sustainable in the long run. To be sure, sustainability is an elusive concept. Ultimately, sustainable developments are activities that use no nonrenewable energy, for once supplies have dwindled, developments that depend on them must also dwindle. However, the criteria for maximum emergy would suggest that energybeused effectively in the competitive struggle for existence. Thus, when energy is available, its use in actions that reinforce overall performance is a prerequisite for sustainability. To do otherwise would suggest that the development would not be competitive, and in the short run would not be sustainable. This alternative (no useofnonrenewable energy) provides the lower bound for sustainability. The upper bound is determined by the Maximum Emergy Principleas well. Sustainable developments are those that operate at maximum power, neither too slow (efficient) nor too fast (inefficient). The questionofdefining sustainability becomes oneofdefining maximum power. In this analysis, we use the Investment Ratio and the Environmental Loading Ratio as the criteria for sustainability. By matching the ratiosofa development with thoseofthe economy in whichitis imbedded, a proposed development is neither more nor less sustainable than the economy as a whole. The systems analysis procedure is designed to evaluate the flowsofenergy and materialsofsystems in common units that enables one to compare environmental and economic aspectsofsystems. Usually questionsofdevelopment policy and usesofresources involve environmental impacts that must be weighed against economic gains. Most often impacts and benefits are quantified in different units resultingina paralysisofthe decision-making process because there is not a common meansofevaluating the trade-offs between environment and development. Emergy provides a common basis, the energyofone type that is required by all productive processes. While "Ecological Economics" and methodsofsystems analysesofemergy support are comparatively new and still evolving, and often difficult to understand, we believe they offer an important step in developing a quantitative basis for public policy decision making.2-18

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RESULTS Section A: Emergy SynthesisofPapuaNew Guinea's Resource BasebySJ.DohertyNATIONALOVERVIEWPapua New Guinea is a resource rich country. Abundant rainfall, year round sun and deep soils provide a renewable supplyofenergy for forests and agriculture. Coastal resources are supported through waves and tidal action along extensive shorelines and the continuous inflowofrivers into estuarine systems. Reservesofminerals, metals and fossil fuels are currently being mined with increased prospects for the future based on explorations and new discoveries. An emergy analysisofindigenous sources, imports and exports identified major resource contributions to PNG's ecological and economic base (Table A-I). The table, as described in methods, identifies each source flow in energy units (J/yr)ormass(glyr),in solar emergy units (sej/yr), as well as its macro-economic value. The resource flows are broken into three categories:I)renewable inputs, 2) indigenous production, and 3) extraction ofnonreplenishable storages. Annual precipitation contributed the greatest emergy to terrestrial systems. A chemical potential energy in rainfall was calculated as the Gibbs free energy in transpired rain. It is a measureofenergy derived (4940 Jlkg) from a chemical gradient between soil water taken up by plants and pure water that is transpiredattheleafsurface as partofphotosynthesis and evaporative cooling. Geopotential energy in rainfall was calculated as a gravitational potential due to impactofthe rainfall on theearth's contoured surface. Thus rain contributes to environmental work in two ways -potential energies due to chemical composition and elevational position. The solar emergy was measured as 600E+20 sej/yr and 730E+20 sej/yr, respectively for each potential energy in annual rains (items 3 and 4, Table A-I). Large numbersofislands, extensive coastlines and a wide continental shelfoffthe southern mainland result in large solar emergy contributions from waves received at shore and the tides. Together these3A-l

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TableA-I.Solaremergy support for Papua NewGuinea'sindigenous resource base, imports and exports. All flows are based on annual contributions, using 1987 data. Calculations for basic data are given as fooUlotes to this table (referenced in column I). AnnualflowsSolar Solar Macro-economic NoteItemraw units/yr transformity') emergy valueb )(J,g)(sej/J)(rowsej/yr)(million US$,1987)RENEWABLESOURCES: ISolarinsolation 2.59E+21JI 25.89 53.97 2 Wind, kinetic 1.34E+18J1500 20.07 41.84 3 Rain, chemical 3.30E+18J18200 599.77 891.62 4 Rain, geopotential 8.57E+18J10500 729.70 1521.19 5 Waves received 6.15E+17J30550 187.85 391.60 6 Tidal energy 1.23E+18J16850 207.80 433.19 7 Earth cycle 1.85E+18J6100 112.65 234.84 INDIGENOUS RENEWABLE PRODUCTION: 8 Hydroelectricity 1.08E+ 15J200000 2.164.50(total electric generation) 5.37E+15J200000 10.74 22.36 9 Agriculture production 3.97E+16J2.00E+05 79.30 165.32 10 Livestock 1.58E+15J2.ooE+06 31.55 65.7811Fuelwood harvested 3.60E+16J4000014.37 29.94 12 Fisheries 1.38E+14J2.00E+06 2.765.7613Forest extraction 2.00E+16J2.53E+05 50.60 105.42 14 Topsoil formation 1.43E+17J6.30E+04 90.14 187.91 NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES, MINED:15Copper1.75E+llg 4.50E+1O 78.80 164.2616Gold 1.45E+07 g 5.00E+1O 0.01 0.02 17 Silver 3.68E+07 g 5.00E+1O 0.02 0.04a)Mineralandmetaloreresourcesareevaluatedusingsolaremergypermass(sej/g).b) Solar emergy value divided by annual solar emergy-use/GNP for PNG, 1987 (48 x10"sej/$).3A-2

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TableA-I,continued.AnnualflowsSolarSolar Macro-economicNoteItemrawunits/yr transformity') emergyvalueb)0,g,$,p-y) (sej/J) (1020sej/yr) (millionUS$,1987)IMPORTS AND OUTSIDE SOURCES:18Oil 2.80E+16J66000 18.49 38.5419Phosphorus 1.49E+IIJ4.14E+07 0.06 0.13 20 Nitrogen5.69E+IIJ1.69E+06 0.01 0.0221Potash 4.09E+1OJ2.62E+06 0.001 22 Miscellaneous goods 5.13E+08$3.60E+12 18.48 38.53 23 Net human migration') 9280 p-y 3.47E+16 3.22 6.72 24 Tourism 5.85E+06$2.60E+12 0.15 0.32 25 Foreign aid 9.46E+08$3.60E+12 34.06 71.00 26 Servicesinimports 9.63E+08$3.60E+12 34.67 72.28 EXPORTS: 27 Cash crops 5.52E+15J2.00E+05 11.04 23.02 28 Fisheries products 4.86E+13J2.00E+06 0.97 2.03 29 Forestry products 9.46E+15J2.53E+05 23.94 49.86 30 Copper 1.75E+II g 4.50E+1O 78.80 164.2631Gold 1.45E+07 g 5.00E+1Oom0.02 32 Silver 3.68E+07 g 5.00E+1O 0.02 0.04 33 Services in exports 1.03E+09$4.80E+13 495.47 1032.90a) Mineralandmetal ore resources are evaluated using solar emergy per mass(sej/g);human services, tourism and foreignaidareestimated using sej/$forPapuaNewGuineafor1987. b) Solar emergy value dividedbyarmua!solar emergy-use/GNPforPNG. t987(PI=48xto"sejl$,Table A-2).c)NetimmigrationofpeopletoPNG is evaluated usinganestimateforsolar emergy supportinganimmigrant foranaverage !ivespan (sej/peop!e-year).FootnotestoTableA-I.Derivationof aJUlual energy flows ofenvironmentalcontributionsandprincipleproductionsystemsinPapuaNewGuinea.circa1987.1joule=107ergs=1kg*m2/sec2 .Renewableresources:1.Direct solar insolation received over inland areasandcontinental shelf: Shelf area based on measurement within the 153 m below sea level contour [est. from Espenshade (1986) .= [land area + shelf areaJ*(avg. insolation)*(l-albedo) = (4.62E+1Im'+ 1.43E+lIm')(85 kcal/cm'/yr)(E+4cm'/m')*(l-O.3)(4186Jlkcal) =2.59E+21J/yr3A-3

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Table A-I footnotes, continued.2.Wind, kinetic energy(within 90 mofsurface) = (3.717E+11 kWhlyr)(3.6E+6 JIkWh) = 1.34E+18 J/yr (Gabeletal1987)3. Chemical potential energyinrainfall is estimatedastheswnofhighlands, lowlandsandcoastal systems contributions(see subsystems analysis): highlands, 1.31E+18 J/yr + lowlands, 0.87E+18 J/yr + continental shelf, O.l7E18 J/yr = 2.35E+18 J/yr4. Gravitational potential energyinrainfall is estimatedasthesumofhighlandsandlowlands contributing energies (seesubsystems analysis): highlands, 6.58E+18 J/yr + lowlands, 0.IOE+18 J/yr = 6.95E+18 J/yr5.Wave energy received at shoreline; (1.708E+11 kWh/yr; Gabel etal1987) (3.6E+6 J/KwH) = 6.15E+17 J/yr6.Tidal energy = (continental shelf area) (0.5) (no. tides/yr)' (densityofseawater) (gravitational force) = (1.43E+11m';Espenshade etal1986) (mean tidal range, 1.56m;USDept. Commerce 1987) (1030 kglm'; Odum et a11983) (706 tides/yr) (9.8rn/s') = 1.23E+18 J/yr7.Earth cycle = (4.62E+11 m') (estimate heat flow/area, 4E+6 J/m'/yr; Odumetal1983) = 1.85E+18 J/yr8.a)Hydroelectricity; (300E+6kWhlyr; Gabel etal1987) (3.6E+6 JIkWh) = 1.08E+15 J/yr b) Total electricity generation, 1.49E+9 kWh, 1984 (UN 1986); (1,49E+9 kWh/yr) (3.6E+6 JIkWh) = 5.37E+15J/yr9.Agricultural production, 2.71E+6 tonne crop yield, 1982; United Nations 1984a); (2.706E+6 t) (E+6 glt) (3.5 kcallg) (4186 Jlkcal) = 3.97E+16 J/yr10.Livestock production, 4.28E+5 t. 1982 (UN 1984a); (4.28E+5t)(E+6 glt) (4 kcaVg) (4186 Jlkcal) (22% protein) = 1.58E+15J/yr11.Fuelwood production, 1.796E+6 t. 1983(UN 1985); (1.796E+6t)(lE+6 glt) (2E+4 J/t) = 3.60E+16 J/yr Solar transfonnity (40,000 sej/J)fromsubsystems analysisofrainforest biomass (Table B-1)12.Fisheries (tuna, crayfish and prawn), 3.75E+4 t. 1982 (UN 1984a); (3.75E+4 t) (E+6 glt) (4 kcallg) (4186 Jlkcal) (22% protien) 1.38E+14 J/yr13.Forestry, 1.25E+6m'avg.armualharvest (PNG Infonnation Booklet 1986); (I.25E+6 m') (8E+5 glm') (2E+4 J/g) = 2.00E+16 J/yr. Solar transfonnity (253,000 sej/J)fromsubsystems analysisofforest products (Table B-1).14.Net topsoil fannalion;a)Soil fonnation assumed occurring on halfofforest area = (I/2)(3.39E+ 1Im'rainforest; Mcintosh 1974) (1260 g soil build up/m'/yr) = 2.14E+14 g/yr; b) Soil loss on agricultural areas estimatedas(3.78E+9m'agricultural land;UN1984b) (850 g soilloss/m'/yr; est. Odum etal1987) = 3.2E+12g/yr;(soil fonnation)-(soil eroded) = (2.14E+14 glm'/yr) (3.2E+12 g/m'/yr) = 2.lIE+14g/yrEnergyinorganic matterofsoil estimatedas(2.lIE+14 glyr) (3% OM content) (5,4 kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal) = I.43E+17J/yr15.Copper, 1.75E+5t/yrmined (UN 1984a); (1.75E+5 t/yr) (1.0E+6g/t) = 1.75E+1Ig/yr16.Gold, 1.45E+4 kg/yr mined (UN 1984a); (14500kg)*(lOOOglkg) = 1.45E+7 g/yr3A-4

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TableA-Ifootnotes, continued.17.Silver, 36800 kglyr (UN 1984); (36800 kg)*(I000g/kg) = 3.68E+7g/yr18.Oil, foreign imports = 2.80E+16 Jlyr (Johnston 1984)19.Phophorus imports, 1300t/yr(UN 1984); %Pbyatomic P04 = .33; est. [PO,l as10%ofbulk fertilizer; (1300 t) (.33)(.I)(E+6g1t)(348J/g) = 1.49E+II J/yr 20. Nitrogen imports, 3200 t/yr (UN 1984); %Nbyatomic NH, = .82; est. [NH,l as10%ofbulk fertilizer; (3200 t) (.82)(.I)(E+6g1t) (2.17E+3Jig) = 5.69E+IIJ/yr21. Potash impons, 1100 t/yr (UN 1984); est.Kas 53%ofbulk fert; (1100t)(.53)(E+6g1t)(702Jig) = 4.09E+IOJ/yr22. Goods (YearbookofInternational Trade Statistics 1981): (foodllive animals, 9.227E+7 US$ + beveragesltobacco, 7.334E+6US$+ crude materials excluding fuels, 2.028E+6US$+ machinesltransport 1.378E+8 US$ + basic manufactures, 6.066E+7 US$, misc. manufactured goods, 3,47IE+7US$+ other goods not classiliad, 1.785E+8US$ = 5.I3E+8US$23. Net human immigration.371immigrations (PNG Nad. Stats. Office 1987b); (371 persons/yr)(25yrs old, avg.) = 9280people-years24. Tourism, visitor arrivals (1986) = 8363 people (PNG Natl. Stats. Office 1987b); (8363)($IOO/dayaverage expenditures)(7daystay) = 5.85E+6US$25. Foreign Aid,K880 miUion (Coopers and Lybrand 1988); (8.8E+8) (US$ 1.075/K) = 9,46E+8 US$ 26. Human services in import products;(K8.73E+8 import expenditures; Qureshi etal1988)/(K0.9302/US$) = 9.63E+8US$.Solar emergy determined from emergy/GNP index calculated from this study (Table A-2). 27. Cash crop exports (PNG National Stats. Off. 1986); (cocoa beans, 3.09E+4 + coffee, 5.31E+4 + copra, 1.13E+5 + copra oil, 4.IIE+4 + palm oil, 1.29E+5 + rubber, 4940 +tea,5320)toooes = 3.77E+5t;(3.77E+5t)(E+6 glt) (3.5 kcal/g) = (4186 Jlkcal) = 5.52E+15 J/yr 28. Fisheries 1985 expons, I.32E+4 t (PNG Info. Booklet 1987); (I.32E+4t)(E+6 g/t)(4kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal) (22% protein) = 4.86E+13J/yr29. Forest products 1986 expons (PNG Info. Booklet 1987); logs, 4.5E+5m'+ lumber, 4.0E+4 m') = 4.9E+5 m'; (4.95E+5m') (8E+5 glm') (2E+$Jig) = 7.84E+15 J/yr. woodchips, 8.lOE+4 t (PNG Nat!. Stats. Office 1987a); (8.IE+4t)(E+6 glt) (2E+4Jig) = 1.62E+15 total energyinforest exports = 9,46E+15 J/yr. Solar transformity (253,000 sej/I) from analysisofforest products (Table B-1).All mineral, metal oresareexported without refinement:30. Copper exports,l.75E+llglyr 31. Gold exports, 1.45E+7 glyr 32. Silver exports, 3.68E+ 7 glyr 33. Human services in export products, 1987 = I.03E+09US$(Qureshietal1988)3A-5

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independent sources supply almost400E+20 sejlyr to PNG, about 20%oftotal free contributions from indigenous environmental resources. Productive estuaries and extensive coral reefs are supportedbythese energies along with extensive inland runoff resulting in large volumesoffreshwatertodeltas supplied from numerous rivers. An estimateofearth cycling due to subsurface heat flow was calculated as about 10%ofindigenous renewable contributions. This estimateisconsidered low, as evidenced bythehigh degreeoforographic and volcanic activity in this geologically young land mass (Dow 1977, Loffler 1982). Many environmental inputs (ie. rain, wind, waves and earth heat flow) are byproductsofthe same coupled solar, atmospheric and geologic processes. Global solar insolation drives physical processes and biological processes, which in turn are coupled. Wind patterns and surface waves, convection currents, evaporation over oceans and land surfaces, and weather systems, among other processes are all driven either directly or indirectly from the sun's energy. The solar transformities used to determine the solar emergyofeachofthese inputs were calculated using the annual global fluxofsolar insolation and deep earth heat released. The solar transforrnities are therefore coupled, and in order notto"double count" resource inputs that are not independent, only the largest contributorofsolar emergy is counted, representing all coupled environmental sources. A total renewable solar emergy flow for Papua New Guinea (R) was estimatedasthe sumofrain, tides and earth cycle -a contributionofIOSOE+20 sej/yr, over 80%ofannual solar emergy-useinthe country. Table A-2 summarizes all resource flows for Papua New Guinea in 1987. Productive sectorsofthe economy include agriculture, livestock, forest, and fisheries (items 8-13, Table A-I). Hydroelectricity generation is a fledgling industry with potential for growth as evidencedbycurrent production and the emergy supplied from runoff collected in rivers moving across elevated gradients (i.e. gravitational potential energyofrain runoff). These indigenous production systems are supportedbytheindependent sources described above. Almost 2 million tonsoffuelwoodisharvested each year for domestic cooking and heating, representing a rural resource formed from past environmental work. This resource supplies14E+20 sej/yr on averagetothe country's indigenous resource base. Extractionofforest materials was calculated using a solar transformityof2.53E+5 sejlJ derived from a subsystems analysisofforest development in Section Bofthis report. Forest products contributed SOE+ 20 sej in1987and over half was exported as logs and woodchips (items I3 and 29). An estimateoftopsoil loss and formation showed a net build up contributing about 8%ofthe3A

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Table A-2. Summaryofmajor solar emergy flows and market economic monetary flows for Papua New Guinea, 1987. Complete analyses are given in Table A-I.Variable Item Solaremergy(1020sej/yr)Marketvalue(10'US$,1987)sej/$R Renewable sources') 1050.1 N Nonrenewable sources within Papua New Guinea 190.3NoDispersed rural sources') 104.5 N, Concentrated use') 2.6 N, Exportofunprocessed raw materials') 78.8FImported fuels and fertilizers 18.6 G Imported goods 18.5 Dollars paid for imports') P,I Solar emergy valueofservice in imports')17.1E Dollars received for exports') PiE Solar emergy valueofservice in exports?) 290.5BExports transfonned, upgraded within counIry') 36.0 x Gross National Product, 1987 (0.93 kina/US$) P, World solar emergy/$ index') P, Papua New Guinea's solar emergy/$ indexFootnotestoTable A-2.0.246 0.717 0.963 1.033 2.535 3.6X101248.0X10121) solar emergy conlributions from rainfall, tidal energyandearth cycle. Other renewable sources are accounted in this summation--since theyarecoupled, global flows. their solar transfomities share global solar emergy flux.2)fuelwoodproductionand netlOpsoil [annalion (items11and14, table1)3) hydroelectricity generation (item8,tableI)4)all mined minerals (Cu, Ag. Au) are currently exported directly without value-added processing.5)dataforimport expendituresandexport revenues from Qureshi et al (1988).6)imported services(P2I)are correctedbysubtracting the costofgoods (item22.table 1) whose solar transformity includeshuman services from import expenditures: (0.9631 0.513)8+9US$=0.450 8+9 US$; solar emergy valueisestimatedbymultiplyingthe$ receivedforimportedservicesby3.6E+12sej/$(averagesej/Sindexforworldeconomy):(0.4508+09 $) (3.88+12sej/$)=17.12 8+20 sej/yr7) eXJXlrted services (PIE)arecorrectedbysubtracting revenuesforagricultural. forestry.andfishery products (items27-29,table1)whosesolartransfonnitiesincludehwnanlaborinvolvedintheirproductionandretrieval:(1.033 0.342 0.0770.008)8+9US$=0.6056 8+9US$;solar emergy valueisestimated using sej/$ indexforPapua New Guinea (48.08+12sej/$):(0.60568+9$)(48.08+12sej/$)=290.69 8+20 sej/yr8)agriculture.fisheriesandforestryproducts(items27-29.table1)9) from Odum and Odum (1983), updatedinOdum 1991.3A-7

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solar emergy baseofPapua New Guinea. Large reservesofsolar emergy are mined each year in the formofcopper, gold and silver (items 15-17), totaling about 80E+ 20 sej/yr. All excavated material is currently exported, thus not contributing directly to production sectors in the country's economy, except for what the revenues from overseas sales can purchase in termsofneeded goods, fuels and services not yet available within its boarders. Goods (G), fuels(F)and services(P21)purchased outside the country contributed 54E+20 sej in 1987, about5%ofannual solar emergy-use (Table A-2). Imported fuels represented the largest single import commodity in 1987 (item 18, TableA-I);over30%ofimports, though less than 2%ofthe total solar emergy used. The solar emergy buying power in foreign aid (950 million US$in 1987) represented an inflowof35E+20 sej, representing 60%ofimports, yet only3%ofthe country's annual emergy base. Over seven times as much solar emergy was exported than received through imports in 1987. Direct exportofunrefined metal ores(N2:Cu, Ag, Au) accounted over 20%ofexports. Cash crops such as coffee, cocoa, sorghum, and rubber, accounted for roughly3%ofexports. A majorityofforest products are still used within the country as indicated by the larger amountofwood harvested for domestic use than for export pulp and logs. Copper ores and forestproducts represented the two greatest exportsofsolar emergy. The solar emergy supporting Papua New Guineans employed in servicesrelated to the extraction, production and deliveryofexport commodities was estimated at 290E+20sejin 1988 (P,E). As described in methods, this value is a measureofresources and purchased goods that are consumed directly and indirectly in order to support the people who produce services or commodities for sale to outside markets. This value suggests that the majority (75%)ofsolar emergy exported from Papua New Guinea was the support baseofthe people, largely the environment. In other words, low cost raw materials and upgraded goods are subsidized by an abundant and still healthy ecosystem life support base. FigureA-I(a)summarizes resource flows for Papua New Guinea in 1987. Environmental sources are identifiedatthe left; mineral, soils and forest wood are shown as internal storages; market goods, services and money are shown toward the right. Numbers and variables on the pathways correspond to evaluations in TableA-Iand summarized in Table A-2. A three-arm diagram [Figure A-I(b)] further aggregates contributing flows as three pathways: I) free indigenous, environmental sources3A-8

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79N 2,' IJ //I)""Ix\ \ 2.54 / J 103E \-...../ I -----1-'''''=--=--''''""-..4J.----+--/\ B36 ,/ ....._-----F1052.679RuralSystems E-+20 solaremJoules/yrE+9US$/yr 54, _F,G,PI 2ImportsIndigenous12371158Sources R,NO 'N 1Papua,NewGuinea327B,P,ETotalExports40679Figure A-I. National summary diagramsofannual solar emergy flowsofPapua New Guinea. (a) Aggregated diagramofmajor resource flows and monetary exchange, Valuesonpathway correspond to Table A-2.(b)Three-arm diagram further summarizing contributionsasindigenous sources. imports and exports.3A-9

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[R +(No+NI)];2) purchased imports (F +G+ P,I); and 3) exports to other countries (B + PIE and N,). These diagrams assist the reader in synthesizing the emergy evaluations by combining similar flows from the tables and aggregating the systems diagramofthe country presented in the introduction. A numberofindices relating resources, people and the economyofPapua New Guinea have been prepared in order to draw perspectives on the relative importanceofcontributing emergy sources (Table A-3). The first seven entries are simple aggregationsofsupporting emergy flows evaluated in TablesA-Iand A-2. The other listings are ratios and indices derived from these sununations. Over 85%ofPNG'stotal support base is delivered from renewable environmental sources -much higher than most other countriesofthe world. Including nonrenewable sources, about 95%ofPNG'semergy basis is derived from within the country (item 14). In other words, the environment contributes more than 6 times the solar emergy than is received through economic transactions. Currently, electricity and fossil fuel consumption account for less than5%ofthe country's annual emergy-use. On the other hand, Papua New Guinea exports more than 7 times as much solar emergy as it can purchase with revenues from overseas sales (item 11, Table A-3). This translates into a net emergy deficit due to tradeofabout 350E+20 sej/yr -about 25%ofthecountry's annual emergy-use. Relating annual emergy-use to the country's GNP, 52 trillion solar emergy joules are used annually for each kina circulating in the economy (exchange rate 0.93 kina/US $, 1988 ;48E+l2sej / international $ US). This index is an orderofmagnitude higher than more developed countries. For instance, in 1987 the USA emergy/money index was about 2E+ 12 sej/$ US (Odum 1988). This suggests that much more solar emergy supports each unitofcurrencyinPNG. When products are sold at market value to overseas buyers, PNG delivers20times more solar emergy to the foreign market thanthey could purchase with the revenues from the sale. This solar emergy represents environmental resources supporting the peopleofPNG,including both monied and unmonied lifestyles. By not recognizing the services and products provided from PNG's ecological support base, resources sold to foreign buyers are subsidized resulting in low prices that do not accurately reflect the abilityofa resource to stimulate real work in the receiver's economy. An estimateofa carrying capacity based on renewable resource use for the peopleofPapua New Guinea was estimated using current emergy-use and the percentageofthat annual consumption that3A-1O

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Table A-3. Overview indicesofannual solar emergy-use, origin. and economic and demographic relations for Papua New Guinea. 1987. NameofIndex Derivation Quantity I Renewable solar emergy flow (rain, tides. earth heat flow) R 1050.1 x lOW sej/yr 2 Solar emergy flow from indigenous nonrenewable reserves N 190.3 x lOW sej/yr 3Howofimported solar emergy F+G+P 2 1 54.1 x 10" sej/yr 4 Total solar emergy inflows R+N+F+G+P 2 I 1294.6 x 10" sej/yr 5 Total solar emergy used. U N,+R+F+G+P 2 I 1215.8 x lOW sej/yr 6 Economic component U-R 165.6 x 10" sej/yr 7 Total exported solar emergy N 2 +B+P,E 405.3 x 10" sej/yr 8%Locally renewable (free)R/U86.4%9 Economic/environment ratio (U-R) /R 0.14 10 Ratioofimportstoexports (F+G+P 2 I) /(N2+B + P ,E) 0.13IIExport to imports (N 2 +B+P,E) / (F+G+P 2 I) 7.4912Net solar emergy deficit duetotrade (imports minus exports) (F+G+P 2 I) -(N2+B+P ,E) 351.2 x 10" sej/yr13%ofsolar emergy-use purchased (F+G+P 2I)/U 4.5%14%ofsolar emergy-use derived from home sources (N,+R) /U 95.5%ISSolar emergy-use per unit area (0.462 millionkm2 ) U/ area 0.26 x 1012sej/m 216Solar emergy-use per person (3.5 million people) U/ population 34.7 x 1015sej/person17Renewable carrying capacity at present living standard (R/U)*(population) 3.02 x10"people18Developed carrying capacity at same living standard 8*(R/U)*(population) 24.2 x10"people19Indexofsolar emergy-usetoGNP P, = U/GNP'98?48.0X1012sej/$ 20%Electric (1.5 TWh) (electricity use) /U 1.8%21%Fossil fuels (fuel use) /U 1.5%22 Fuel-use per person fuel-use / population 0.53 x10'5sej/person 3A-ll

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was renewable (RIU). Just over 3 million people can presumably be supported on a sustainable basis using only resident renewable resources (about 87%ofcurrent population). With increasing ties to world economies, developing to global standards, Papua New Guinea could presumably support almost 7 times the current population. This assumes greater trade with outside markets, greater useofindigenous resources, and an increase in the country's regional investment ratio (lR) to a world averageof8 to I (purchased imports to environmental source contributions). Such an increase would be accompanied by further integration into a monied economy and a loweringofper capita emergy consumption resulting in a lower standardofliving. A few other indices relating population and area to solar emergy-use are presented in Table A-3. These indices and the others discussed here will be revisited in the Recommendations and Conclusion Sectionofthis report comparing Papua New Guinea's emergy and economic indices to other countriesofthe world.Itis evident here that Papua New Guinea is still a rural country with mostofits real wealth derived from free indigenous sources. There is a 20: I ratioofenvironmental emergy to purchased imports, revealing a low dependence on foreign exchange.Atthe same time, a large amountofsolar emergy is exported without any refinement in the country. Raw materials provide society with a net contributionofsolar emergy due to past unmonied environmental work, supporting value-added industries and peoples. Currently, as evidenced by low solar emergy contributions from imports relative to exported resources, Papua New Guinea is operating at a net trade deficit. This is possible due primarily to a large ecological support system -one that will increasingly be threatened with further developments that don't consider these free contributions.REGIONAL ANALYSISOFTHEHIGHLANDS AND LOWLANDSAn emergy evaluationofthe highland and lowland regionsofPapua New Guinea was undertaken to better understand the roleofecological and physiographic conditions considered unique to each region and their effects on resource production and allocation. The country's relief is shown in Figure A-2 and Table A-4 summarizes physiographic and climatological differences between the regions. The highlands represent those lands greater than 300 meters in elevation, comprising 56%ofPNG's land base. Based on data from Davidson (1983), the mean elevationofthe highlands above the upper limitofthe lowlands (300 meters) is 1000 meters. This elevation was used to calculate the3A-12

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Bismarck 300115New Zealand!>IJo Ocean ,.o Pacific 9 100200kllomelers.. I)..PhIIlplnes Papua ....'-1CIT'" Gulnea In(jonesl">. '.' .',.Ind/e" Pacific Ocesn,/'-'" Ocesn 9 s Ocean <@III Solomon Q 1. Cii::?, sCor.' 4 Pacific w:;-w Figure A-2. MapofPapua New Guinea, showing its inland relief; lowlands coastal plains, highlands above 300m, and the central cordillera above 2400m.

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Table A-4. Indigenous, renewable solar emergy support for highlands and lowlands regionsinPapua New Guinea. Calculations are givenasfootnotestothis table.%Total area Avg. elevation Annual rainfall Runoff volume percentofincident rainfall Evapotranspiration Chemical potential emergyinrainfall' Geopotential emergy in rainfallbChemical stream emergy') Physical stream emergy4)FootnotestoTable A. Highlands') 56 1000 3.73 699 72 28 238 719 Lowlands2 )44150 1.20 68 28 72 18911Country total 100%794 m 2.62 m/yr 767 x10'm3/yr53%47%427 xl0' sej/yr 730 x law sej/yr 1708 xl0' sej/yr 314 x l(fO sej/yr1.Highlands regiona,chemical potential: (highlands area) (rainfall)(%ET)(densityofrain water) (Gibbs free energy)=(56%)(4,62E+11 m') (3,73 m rain) (0,28) (1000 kg/m') (4940 J/kg)=1.31E+18 J/yr; solar emergy=(1.31E+18 Jlyr)(l8200 sej/J)=2.38E+22 sejlyrb.geopotential energy: (highlands area) (avg. elevation) (rainfall)(%runoff) (densityofrain water) (gravitational force)=(56%)(4,62E+11 m') (1000m)(3.73 m rain) (0,72) (1000 kg/m') (9,8 mls')=6,85E+18 J/yr; solar emergy=(6,85E+18 J/yr) (10500 sej/J)=7,19E+22 sejlyr2.Lowlands regiona,chemical energy. rain over land: (lowlands area) (rainfall)(%ET) (densityofrain water) (Gibbs free energy)=(44%)(4,62E+11m')(1.20 m rain) (0.72) (1000 kg/m') (4940 J/kg)=0.87E+18 J/yr; solar emergy=(0,87E+18 J/yr) (18200 sej/J)=I.S8E+22 sej/yr chemical energy. rain over coastal system: (continental shelf) (rainJall) (densityofrain water) (Gibbs free energy for seawater/rainwater differential)=(1.43E+11 m') (1.20 m rain) (1000 kg/m') (1000 J/kg)=0.17E+18 J/yr; solar emergy=(0.17E+18 J/yr. over sea) (18200 sej/J)=3,09E+21 sej/yr total chemical emcrgy in rainfall=(1.58 + 0,31)E+22 sej/yr=1.89E+22 sej/yr3A-14

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TableA-4footnotes, continued. 2.b.physical energy,rainoverland:(lowlandsarea)(avg. elevation) (rainfall)(%runoff) (densityofrain water)(gravitational force)=(44%)(4.62E+1lm')(ISO m) (1.20 m rain) (.28) (1000 kg/m') (9.8mls')=0.IOE+18 J/yr; solar emergy=(0.IOE+18 J/yr) (10500 sej/J)=1.05E+21 sej/yr3. Chemical stream energy estimatedascontributionsfrom2 sources:1)volwne flowfromhighlands runoffintolowlandsand2) runofffromlowlands into coastal systems:I)highlands runoff into lowlands=(% runoff from highlands) (highlands rain) (highlands area)=6.99E+1l m'/yr; (6.99E+1l m'/yr) (IOOOkg/m') (4940 Jlkg)=3,45E+18 J/yr; 2) lowlands runoff into coastal systems=(lowlands runofO (lowlands rain) (lowlands area)=6.83E+1O m'/yr; (6.83E+I0 m'/yr) (lOOOkg/m') (1000 Jlkg)=0.068E+18 J/yr; Solar emergy=(3.45E+18 J/yr + 0.68E+18 J/yr) (48500sejm=1.71E+23 sej/yr4. Physical stream energy estimatedastheswnof1)surface water runofffromhigWandsinto lowlandsand2) direct precipitation on lowlands not evapotranspirated: Solar emergy=(highlands+lowlands runoff) (avg. elev.dropoflowlands drainagearea)(gravitational force)(density of water)=[6.99E+1lm'+ 0.68 m'] (ISO m elevational change) (9.8mls')(1000 kg/m')=1.13E+18 J/yr; (1.l3E+18 J/yr) (27900 sej/J)=3.14E+22 sej/yr3A-15

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geopotential energy due to rain runoff for the highlands. Average annual rainfall for this region is 3.73 m (van der Leeden 1985). Evapotranspiration rates (ET) were estimated to be around30%ofincident rain; runoff was considered to be that which is not evaporatedortranspired (100 %ET=72%). The lowlands represent the remaining 44%ofthe land area with an average elevationof150 m (the mean height between sea level and 300 m), including the coastal waters out to the edgeofthe continental shelf. Lowlands have lower cloud coverage, greater solar insolation, lower rainfall, more winds and less steep slopes yielding greater evapotranspiration rates and lower runoff rates. An averageof1.20 mofprecipitation falls annually on the lowlands and surrounding coastal waters (PNG Info. Booklet 1986). Evapotranspiration and runoff rates were considered inverseofthose in the highlands. From these regional analyses, it is clear that a vast majorityofthe emergy delivered from annual rains is due to climatic conditions, ecologcal cover and physiographic relief unique to the highlands. Nearly allofthegravitational potential in rainwater across the country's topography is due to highland conditions. About 98%ofthe 730E+20sej/yris contributed from actionsofhighlands rains (Table A-4).Incontrast, muchofrain's chemical potential energy is derived from lowland vegetative cover, higher temperatures and winds which drive photosynthesis and transpiration (almost 60%ofthe 427E+20sejlyrin transpired rain is delivered from lowland and coastal areas). The chemical and physical energies in rivers were also estimated based on volumeofrunoff from the two regions:I)the volumeofsurface water runoff leaving the highlands which is concentrated in river channels and flows into the lowlands, and 2) the volumeofrunoff into coastal systems due to the direct rainfall on the lowlands which is not evapotranspired. The chemical potential emergy in river flow was estimated 1708E+20sej/yr;the physical stream emergy was estimated at 314E+20sej/yr.This regional analysis brings into perspective the large emergy contributions due to prevailing conditionsofthe environment in these two regionsofthe mainland. Further, it is apparent that although the highlands receive greater rainfall, most is runoff and collected in stream channels entering the lowlands, so that muchofits potential is directed downstream toward the receiving systems below. In an attempt to investigate issuesofresource allocation, demographic and socioeconomic conditions were attributed to each region. Two-thirdsofthe country's population was considered rural highlands (Bell 1986)orroughly 2.3 million people, with 1.2 million inhabitants in the lowlands and along the coast. It was3A-16

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assumed that a quarterofthe imported goods and services reached the highlands; the lowlands being the more urban area with its large port cities. Solar emergy flows for both regions are summarized in Figure A-3. The total solar emergy base for the highlands was estimated atjustover 1000E+20 sej/yr. Lowlands solar emergy base totalled 2500E+20 sej/yr, over twice thatofthe highlands. Using this scenario, per capita emergy-use in the lowlands was over 4 times as great as per capita-use in the highlands. This regional analysis identifies the importanceofhighlands rain, forest cover and stream network to the country's renewable resource base.EMERGY EVALUATIONOFINDIGENOUS RESOURCE RESERVESPapua New Guinea has large resource reserves, including forest biomass, organic matter in soil, metal ores and fossil hydro-carbon reserves. Estimatesofsolar emergy were made for all known major reserves (Table A-5). Solar emergyofrainforest reserves were calculated using a solar transformity for standing forest biomass derived in the subsystems analysisofforestoperations in New Britain (see Table B-1). Coastal plain swamps were evaluated using a solar transformity derived from subsystems analysisofsago palm (see footnotestoFigure B-2). Other solar transformities are drawn from independent studies and cited as footnotes. All storages are expressed in billion macro-economic dollars, by dividing the solar emergy stored in a resource reserve by 2E+12sej/$ US, the emergy/dollar index for the United States in 1987 (Odum 1988). This was done in order to relate real value based on past environmental productionofexisting reserves. As defined in the methods section, macro-economic value refers to the total amountofdollar flow that could be generated by useofa resource. By expressing solar emergy in macro-economic dollars, potential contributions to Papua New Guinea's total, combined economy are made relative to international markets. Based on energy content and wood density values for rainforest biomass derived from Brown and Lugo (1984) and standing crop estimatesofPNG'sdifferent forest types (Davidson 1983), estimatesofstored solar emergy were made. Lowland rainforests, the largest areaofforest cover type (about 20 million ha), had the largest biomass storageofsolar emergy (item I, Table A-5), about 6.5E+24 sej.3A-17

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202613x 10 oeJ/yrTotalInputsIntoLowlands:TotalInputsIntoHighlands:201022x10seJ/yr41 40 1417100 """'" 3 n n!!.!!. m m3 3 .,"'"'";; HIGHLANDS208LOWLANDSFigureA-3.Systems diagram relating solar emergy flows associated with highiands and lowlands regionsofPapua New Guinea. Calculations for pathway values are givenasfootnotes to Table A-4.3A-18

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Table A-5. Storageofsolar emergy in resoruce reserves within PapuaNewGuinea. Calculations for basic data given as footnotes to this table. Storage SolarMacro-economicNote Indigenous quantityemergy">valueD)reserves(J,g)(sej) (billionUS$, 1988)ILowland rainforest 1.62E+20J6.46E+24 3228 2Lowermontane forest I.04E+20J4.17E+24 2085 3 Alpine/montane forest 9.48E+18J3.80E+23 190 4 Coastal plains swam ps 5.88E+17J7.44E+22 39 5 Mangroves 7.IOE+18JI.04E+18526 Regrowth and gardens 2.95E+18J5.60E+22 28 7 Soil organic matter 6.65E+18J4.15E+23 208 8 Copper ore 6.24E+12 g 2.8IE+23 140 9 Gold 9.72E+09 g 4.86E+20
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Footnotes toTable A-5.Lowland tropical rainforest; areaofforest cover=19.9E+6 ha (Mcintosh 1974), biomass=405.4 ton/ha (Brown and Lugo 1984); energy contem=4.78 kcaVg (E.P. Odum 1971); solar transformity=40,000 sej/J (for derivation see Table B-1): (l9.9E+6 hal (405.4. !/ha) (IE+6 glton) (4.78 kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal)=1.62E+20J;(1.62E+20 J) (40000 sej/I)=6.46E+24 sej 2 Lower montane forest; 9.IE+6 ha (McIntosh 1974), 572.6 !/ha (Brown and Lugo 1984): (9.IE+6 hal (572.6 !/ha) (lE+6 glt) (4.78 kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal)=1.04E+20J;(1.04E+20 I) (40000 sejlJ)=4.17E+24 sej 3 Montane and alpine forest; 1.2E+6 ha (McIntosh 1974), 394.9 !/ha (Brown and Lugo 1984): (1.2E+6 hal (394.9 !/ha)(lE+6glt) (4.78 kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal)=9.48E+18 J; (9.48E+18 J) (40000 sej/I)=3.80E+23 sej 4 Sago palm and woodland swamps; 3.5E+6 ha (McIntosh 1974), 4.012 kcaltha (Ulijaszek and Poraituk 1983); solar transformity=131600 sej/J (for derivation see footnotestoFigure B-2): (3.5E+6 hal (135 trunkstha) (74.3 kgltrunks) (400 kcal/O.I kg) (4186 Jlkcal)=5.88E+17J;(5.88E+17 I) (131600 sej/I)=7.74E+22 sej 5 Mangroves; 4.5E+6 ha (Mcintosh 1974); IE+4 glm' (Snedaker 1986); energy content 3.77 kcal/g: (4.5E+6 hal (10000 m'tha) (lE+4 glm') (3.77 kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal)=7.IOE+18J;(7.IOE+18 J) (14700 sej/J)=1.04E+23 sej 6 Regrowthandgardens; 2.4E+6 ha (McIntosh 1974),4.2 kcal/g (Odum etal1983): (2.4E+6 hal (10000 m'tha) (7000 glm') (4.2 kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal)=2.95E+18J;(2.95E+18 J) (19000 sej/I)=5.60E+22 sej 7 Organic matterinsoil; est. 7000 glm', 10% organic malter content: (4.2E+7 hal (10000 m'tha) (7000 glm') (0.1) (5.4 kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal)=6.65E+18J;(6.652E+18J)(62500 scj/I)=4.15E+23 sej8 Copperore;estimates 950 milliontons(Panguna Mine,0.4%Cucontent)+350 milliontons(Ok Tedi Mine. 0.7%)(PNG Info.Bk.1984)=6.25E+6 tons: (6.25E+6t)(1.0E+6 glt)=6.25E+12g;(6.25E+12 g) (4.5E+1O sej/g)=2.81E+23sej 9 Gold; estimate 34E+6 tons,(OkTedi Mine,286g1tpurity) (PNG Info. Bk. 1984): (3.4E+7t)(286 glt)=9.72E+9g;(9.72E+9 g) (5.0E+IO sej/I)=4.86E+20 sej10Oil reserves=345mbb1oil +137mbbl condensate (Qureshi etal1988): (482E+6 bbl) (5.8E+6 Btu/bbl) (1055 J!Btu)=2.95E+18 J; 2.95E+18 J) (53000 sej/I)=1.56E+23 sejIINatural gas; estimate10trillion cuft(Qureshi etal1988): (IOE+12 cuft)(2.832E-02 m'/cuIt)(3.89E+7 J/m')=1.102E+19J;(I.102E+19J)(48000 sej/I)=5.29E+23 sej3A-20

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Referring back to TableA-I,only about 0.04E+24 sejofforest products including fuelwood was harvested in 1988. This lowland rainforest emergy expressed as macro-economic contributions, was estimated to be worth 3.2 trillion dollars, roughlyhalfofall solar emergy stored in major reserves in PNG. Lower montane forests are the next largest emergy storage with over 9 million ha and over 2E+ 12 sej stored in standing biomass (Table A-5, item 2). Coastal plain swamps and mangroves together represent about 90E+9 US$ in storages. Other biotic reservesofincluderegrowth and gardens and organic matter stored in forest soils, together worth almost 250 billion macro-economic dollars (items 6 and 7). The two largest mining companies in Papua New Guinea, Panguna and Ok Tedi, have an estimated 140 billion macro-dollars in copper reserves (item 8). Known gold reserves represent insignificant contributionsofsolar emergy. Known, potential and possible hydrocarbon reserves, while relatively small (oil and natural gas store 340 billion US$), may be significantly largeriffuture explorations meet current discoveries (Dow 1977 and Hapgood 1989). Together, all major reserves store over 6 trillion US$ in macro-economic value within Papua New Guinea. The macro-economic valueofthese resource reserves is almost 2500 times greater than the current national productof2.54 billion US$. Further, 90%ofall reserves are forest biomass, based on renewable energy sourcesofsunlight and rainfall. These resource reserves will play important and expanding roles in the country's future economy. In chapter 3-Fofthis report, we make a preliminary estimateofthe solar emergyofstored genetic and cultural information in PNG nationals, representing the convergenceofpast envirorunental work into high quality information storages. The large solar emergy stored in these resource and information reserves illustrates the abundant wealth not only in annual productionbutin savings as well. By recognizing real valueofall contributing sources, not simply those with market value, a new perspective is gained which identifies Papua New Guinea as a resource wealthy country with great amountsofsolar emergy delivered mostly free from home sources and stored in indigenous reserves. These values will be compared with thoseofother countries as concluding remarks to this report in order to draw perspectives relative to other rural and developed nations.3A-21

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Section B: Subsystems AnalysesofMajorRuralProduction SystemsbyS.lDohertyInthis section, three indigenous production systems are evaluatedfor net yield and returnoninvestments using measuresofsolar emergy. These systems are:I)a lowland rainforest logging operationonthe islandofNew Britain; 2) sago palm cultivation in theGulfProvince; and 3) sweet potato production in a typical highlands village. Each one willbeintroduced briefly, accompanied by a systems diagram with calculations footnoted. Sources from both the environment andany purchased resources derived outside the system were evaluated. Ratiosofnet yield and investment as described in the methods sectionofthis report are calculated for each production sector. Solar transformities calculated for each product was then used in the national overview analysis (Section A) in order to estimate as accurately as possible the contributions duetomajor production sectors. Finally an estimateofenvironmental support area is given for each sector which demonstrates the roleofPapua New Guinea's rich renewable resource base in supporting its people and their activities.SUBSYSTEMSANALYSISOFFORESTRYINNEWBRITAINOverviewofForestResources For many thousandsofyears the forestsofPapua New Guinea have been the primary renewable resource for its people, providing building materials, fuels, food, medicine and gardening plots. The commercial exploitationofforests began after World WarII.Eighty-five percentofthe country's land area is tree covered, and one-third is considered accessible commercial forest (Kingetal1982). Other valuations are lower; Galenson et al (1982) estimated that one million hectares (2 percentofthe land area) were under allocation for exploitation and another 6 million hectares areofknown and possible potential. The discrepancy in figures is largely due to the debate over accessibilityofforestproducts and variable assessmentsoftimber grade. Davidson (1984) reports that althoughPNGhas the highest forestlland area ratioofall the Indo-Pacific nations, it has a low percentageofoperable forest area due to difficultyofthe terrain.3B-I

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The forestsofPapua New Guinea are broken into major ecotypes Table A-5, along with emergy valuationsofstanding reserves based on solar transformities determined from these subsystem analyses. The major forestry operations have been in lowland rainforests which cover the greatest land area. Muchofthe country is difficult to access owing to extensive swamps and steep slopes. What is accessible isofa mixed variety hardwood type with generally low economic returns on investment (McIntosh 1974, Tickell per. comm. 1990). Some 200 timber species have economic potential (Komtagarea 1979), but presently only a few account for the bulkofmerchantable timber. The islandofNew Britain is the major forest industry areaofPNG(Perry 1985), but the largest individual clear felling project has been the GogollJANT projectinthe valleys southofMadang Province. The OfficeofForests (1977) developed an inventoryofknown, possible and potential forest development areas based on difficultyofaccess, suitabilityofterrain to clear felling operations and risk assessment. Important ecological variables such as biomass productivity, stability, evapotranspiration rates and water quality have not been included in the inventory. These known and possible areasofforestry potential along with the major timber operations existing in 1977 are given in Figure B-1. Mostofthe marketabletimber comes from a few select species such as Pometia spp., Eucalyptis spp., Agathis spp., and Araucaria spp.inthe higher elevations. BecauseofI.he high diversity oflow-grade timber, the steep slopes, high rainfall (average 2500-3500 mm annually), the remotenessofmuchofthe resource, and the divisionoflandtenure, the rainforestsofmuchofPapua New Guinea's landscape are afforded, at least temporarily, some protection-ifby nothing more than aggravation.EmergyAnalysisofForestryin NewBritainData for forestry operating expenses (fuel, machinery, road materials, labor) and estimatesofforest biomass (total organic matter, stemwood biomass, annual production) were derived from the literature and synthesized with known values supplied by industry (Tickell per. comm. 1990). The evaluation was made for a 20,000 ha operation in lowland rainforestsofNew Britain. Table B-1 lists all resource flows in raw input units per ton wood product and as solar emergy (sejlton). All calculations are given as footnotestothe table. An overview diagram is given in Figure B-2 summarizing all solar emergy flows for forest production.3B-2

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New Zealandl,.>o" PacificOcesn100200300kilometers..o 1530 ForestryPotential ms Area01possiblepotentialArea0'knownpotential 0.. Phillpines ,-'!2, Papua ("}iT' Guineauones '';:'.<::::::"":0, ".',-.IndIan t\Oc n./\... PacificOcn ; 'J>... ..Ocean ,1::1 Solomon ,,.,'"(}14701500BI.marc" Cor.1$..Pacific '0 '. d.. ...(J'WOq'Q;, 141"1440 in I, ...tIl.:. Figure B-1. MapofPapua New Guinea showing its forestsofknown and possible development potential (redrawnfromBaldwin etal1978). Areasofforest types (lowland, montane, alpine, coastal plains and mangroves) are reported in TableA-5with the emergy calculationsofforest biomass reserves. Note the high development potential on the islandofNew Britain.

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Table B-1. Resource flows supporting rainforest logginginNew Britain, Papua New Guinea.Allvalues are given per tonofharvestable wood. Resource Solar Solar Note Item inputs transformity emergy (J,g,$/ton) (sej/J) (sej/ton) 1 environmental energy 4,40E+1O J1.82E+04 8.00E+14 2 fuels 2.70E+08 J 5.30E+04 1.43E+13 3 oil 6.77E+07 J 6.80E+04 4.61E+12 4 machinery 11.20 $ 2.00E+12 2.24E+13 5 other equipment 1.28$2.00E+12 2.55E+12 6 road construction 3.20E+06 g 1.50E+06 4.80E+12 7 labor 4.57$4.80E+13 2.19E+14 8 miscellaneous costs 12.10$2.00E+12 2,42E+13 Standing crop biomass 2.00E+1O J (a) 8.00E+14 Harvested yield 4.32E+09 J (b) I.09E+15 (a) Solar transformityofstanding biomass: (b) Solar transformityofharvested wood: Net yield ratioofharvested wood: Investment ratioofharvested wood:FootnotestoTable B-1.40000 sejlJ 253000 sej/J 4.19 0.33Energy contentofrainforest wood: 4.78kcaVg(4186 Jlkcal)=2.00E+4JigWood density: 8.00E+5 g/m'Estimateofstandingcropoflowlandrainforestbiomass(TickeUper.comm.1990):min120m3/ha,max250m3Jha;185m3{haavg.extractable, usable volume=40 m3/ha=22%ofavgvolume(4Om'/ha) (0.8E+6 g/m')=148tons/ha (2E+4 Jig)=2.96E+12 J/ha total standing crop on 20.000 ha: (185 m'/ha) (0.8 tim') (20000 hal=2.96E+06 tons total energy: (2.96E+6 t) (2E+4 Jig)=5.92E+16J Annual yield premium qualtiy: (1500m'/mo)(0.8E+5 tim') (12 mo/yr)=14400 tons/yr (2E+4 Jig)=2.88E+14 J/yr construction quality: (3500m'/mo)(0.8E+6 g/m') (12mo/yr)=33600 tonslyr (2E+4 Jig)=6.72E+14 J/yr total volume harvested: 48000tons/yrtotal energyinharvest: 9.60E+14 Jlyr3B-4

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Table B-1 footnotes. continued.Percentoftotal harvested annually: (annual harvest,48000tons/yr)I(IOtalstanding crop,2,96E+6IOns)=2%Average area cleared annually:324ha/yrLifetimeofproject: 62yrs1.Transpired rain. chemical potential: landarea=10000 m2/ha;arumalrainfall=80in;runoff=28%; evapotranspiration=72; (72%) (80in)(,0254m/in)(10000m')(1000kgim')(4940J/kg)=7,23E+1OJlha/yr;(7.23E+1OJlha/yr)(18200sejlJ)=1.32E+15 sejlhaiyr Total rainfall supporting total standing crop: estimated timetogrow forest (200t/ha. max voume)=90 yrs (based onsimulationofforestland rotation model, section C);(90yrs)(1.32E+15sej/ha/yr)=1.19E+17sej;sejperIOnstanding crop:(1.19E+17sej)(148t/ha,average)(20,000ha,IOtalproject area)=8.00E+14sej/lOn sej perIOnharvested:(8.00E+14sej/ton)(22%estractable)=3.70E+15sej/lOn2.Fuel used:liters/mo;(30000liters/mo) (energy content3.60E+07JIl)(12mo/yr)=1.30E+13J/mo(53000sej/J)=6.87E+17sej/yr;sejper ton:(6.87E+17sej/yr)I(48000tons/yr harvested)=1.43E+13sej/ton3.Oil, lubricants, etc.(3500kina/month)I(0.93k/$)I(0.50$/liter)=(7527limo)(energy content,3.60E+07J/I)(12mo/yr)=3.25E+12Jlmo(68000sej/I)=2.21E+17sej/yr;sejperIOn:(2.21E+17sej/yr)I(48000tons/yr harvested)=4.61E+12sej/lOn4.Machinery: (capital outlay,2.00E+06kina) (estimated lifetime,4yrs)I(0.93 k/$) =5.38E+5$/yr (U.S, sej/$ index,2.00E+ 12sej/$)=1.08E+18sej/yr;sejperIOn:(1.08E+18sejlyr)I(48000tons/yr harvested)=2.24E+13sej/ton5.Other equipment:(5.70E+05kina) (est. lifetime,10yrs)I(0.93k/$)=6.13E+04$/yr(2.00E+12sejNS$)=1.23E+17sej/yr;sej perIOn:(1.23E+17sej/yr)I(48000tons/yr harvested)=2.55E+12sej/ton6.Road construction: (length,4km)(width,6m)=22000m'surface area: gravel:(800m'/mo)(est. rock density2.00E+06gim')(12mOlyr)=1.54E+llgiyr (est. solar transformity using concrete,1.50E+06sej/g)=2.30E+ 17sej/yr: sej perIOn:(2.30E+17sej/yr)I(48000tonslyr harvested)=4.80E+12sej/lOn 7. Labor: nationals,8000kina/moI(0.93 k/$) (12mo/yr)=1.03E+05$/yr; expatriates,9000kina/moI(0.93 k/$) (12mo/yr) =1.16E+05$/yrtotal labor costs=2.l9E+05$/yr(4.80E+13sej/$,P"tableA)=1.05E+19sej/yr; sej perIOn:(1.05E+19sej/yr)I(48000tonslyr harvested)=2.l9E+14sej/lOn8.Miscellaneous costs=45000kina/moI(0.93k/$)(12mo/yr)=5.81E+05$/yr(2.00E+12sejlUS$)=1.16E+18sej/yr;sejper ton:(1.16E+18sej/yr)I(48000tons/yr harvested)=2.42E+13sej/ton3B

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800Rain Forest ProductionWoodProduction292F1092yCulling1092MainEconomyForExport1tonWoodFigure B-2. Systems diagramofbiomass production and cuttinginlowland rainforests in New Britain.Allpathway values are1012sej/ton. Values correspondtothose in TableB-1with accompanying footnotes and citations.3B-6

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Transpired rainfall was used to estimate environmental emergy supporting forest growth and maintenance. Rainfall in New Britain averages 80 inches (2000 mm) annually. Using the forest land rotation model (Section3-eofthis report),itwas estimated that about 90 years would be required to reach a mature steady state forest, averaging 148 tonsofstemwood biomass per hectare. Using a wood density estimate for tropical woodsof0.8 tons/m', this represents 185 m'/ha. As described in the previous paragraphs, although there is a high volumeofforestbiomass (range 120m'to 250m'per hectare, mean 185 m'/ha), the exportable volumeoflumberand construction quality stemwood was estimated to be40m'/ha(32 tons), or about 22%oftotal volume. Using this information, a solar transformity for total biomass standing in forest was calculated as 40,000 sej/J [Table B-1, item (a)). This is the same orderofmagnitude as other tropical wood (Odum et a11986, Keitt 1991) though this transformity does not include societal goods and services required to extract and process it. Once the wood has been harvested, the solar transformity increases to 253,000 sej/J (item b). Solar transformities for temperate wood products are generally much lower. For instance, harvested spruce and pine in Sweden had solar transformitiesofabout 10,000 sej/J (Dohertyetal 1991). The higher values for tropical woods are due in part to two factors:1)high environmental emergy per unit product and 2) a greater diversityofstructure in complex rainforests. Thisgreater complexity yields muchofmaterial that is not targeted for exploitation and structure that is wasted in the processofextracting marketable timber. This is certainly the caseinPapua New Guinea where, becauseofthe difficult terrain and diverse mixofforest species, muchofthe standing forest biomass is wasted when forests are clearcut. A net yield ratioofjustover 4 to 1 suggests that forest products deliver a net benefit to Papua New Guinea's combined economy, though the net yields are not as high as previousstudiesofother tropical regions have reported. An investment ratioof0.3 similarly demonstrates that nature is contributing 3 times as much solar emergy as that invested from the main economy for forest development projects. Using 40,000 sej/J for standing forest biomass, the rainforestsofPapua New Guinea were estimated to store as much as 14E+24 sej with a macro-economic valueof5.5 trillion dollars (refer to Table A-5, items1,2and 3 sununing lowland rainforests, montane and alpine forests).Ofcourse, this value is an estimate for all forest biomass, notjustexport quality stemwood. The questionofwhether these forestproducts should be used byPNGnationalsorsold overseas for needed revenues will be discussed in the concluding sectionsofthis report.3B-7

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SUBSYSTEMS ANALYSISOFSAGO PALM CULTIVATIONSago palm woodlands along the coastal plainsofSouthern Papua New Guinea cover an estimated 3.5 million hectares (Davidson 1983). Traditionally sago palm has been either harvested through progressive clearings from natural woodlandsorcultivated under limited management by local villagers for building materials and other resources. Although some plantations exist, sago palm is still considered a local resource and is not targeted for export (Pernella and Hill 1984). Coastal plains woodlands are vast wetlands receiving large amountsofenvironmental resources in the formofsurface water runoff from the highlands. Direct rainfall is typically lower than in the highlands and solar insolation is greater than average duetolower cloud coverage. A subsystems analysis for sago palm cultivation was conducted using data drawn from a comprehensive study in Papua New Guinea'sGulfProvince by Ulijaszek and Poraituk (1983). Values for productivity ranged from 7 mature trunkslha per annum for subsistence gatheringofuncultivated woodlands to 330 trunkslhalyr from plantations under intensive management. A mean productionof135 trunkslha taken annually under village management was considered a sustainable harvest. This value was used in the following analysis. Palm trunk weight (74 kg/trunk) and energy content (4000 kcal/kg) and estimatesofvillage labor (133 hrs/106kcal dry sago palm) were drawn from Ulijaszek and Poraituk (1983). Rainfall was estimated as the average for the country (2.62 m). The solar emergy supporting labor was calculated two ways:I)using a transformity for human metabolism calculated in Section F (TableF-l,item 2) and 2) using a measureofsolar emergy per capita calculated from the national analysis (Section A, Table A-3, item 16). The averageofthese two calculations was used to estimate solar emergy supporting labor. The ecological support area for labor was estimated following methods for calculating carrying capacity for economic investments described in the Methods Sectionofthis report. Simply, the percentofthe country's totalemergy budget that was locally renewable ([RIU=86%]; Table A-3, item 8) was used as to determine how much village labor was supported by the local environment. Solar emergy values are shown in Figure B-3 with corresponding calculations given as footnotes to the summary diagram. A solar transformity for harvested sago palm was determined at13I ,600 sej/J.3B-8

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Villagelabor2.822.1168x109J/ha-yr19.7Sagopalm cultivation15x10"Vhayr 2.4 Solar transformity=Net yield ratio=Investment ratio=131,600 sej/J80.15Figure B-3. Aggregated systems diagramofsago palm cultivation in the Gulf ProvinceofPapua New Guinea. All pathway values are 1015sej/halyr for sustainable production.footnotes to Figure B-3 Sago palm yield = (135 tnmks/ha/yr) (74.3 kg/trunk) (400kcaVO.lkg) (4186 J/kcal) = 1.68E+II J/ha/yr Chemical rain = (2.62rn/yr)(10000 m2/ha) (1000 kg/m3) (4940 J/kg) = 1.29E+1l J/ha/yr; (1.29E+1l J/ha/yr)(18200 sej/I) = 2.36E+15sej/ha/yrLaborestimatedusingaverageoftwocalculations:(133 hrs labor/IE+6 kcaldrysago palm) (4.0122E+7 kcal SP/ha/yr production) (2927 kcal/day food intake) / (24 hrs/day) (4186 J/kcal) = 2.724E+9 J/ha/yr; (2.724E+9 J/ha/yr)(6.7E+6 sej/J; Table F-I, item 2) = 18.25E+15 sej/ha/yr (133 hrs laborllE+6 kcaldrysago palm) (4.0122E+7 kcal SP/ha/yr production) = 5336 hrs/yr; (5336 hrs/yr) / (8736 hrsiyr) = 61%ofannual activity; U/person = 34.7E+15 sej/per (Table A-3, item 16); (0.61) (34.7E+15 sejjper) = 21.2E+15sej/ha/yr average = [(18.25 + 21.2)/2] E+15 sej/ha/yr = 19.7E+15 sej/ha/yr Environmental support for tabor, [I0abor)]= R/U = 86%(fableA-3, item 8); (0.86) (l9.7E+15 sej/ha/yr) = 16.9E+15 sej/ha/yr Outside village support for labor,[F(labor)] = I -R/U = 14%; (0.14) (l9.7E+15 sej/ha/yr) = 2.8E+15 sej/ha/yr I = total ecosystem emergy = rain +1(I.OOr) = (2.36 +16.9)E+15sej/ha/yr = 19.3E+15 sej/ha/yr F = total support outside village = F(labor) = 2.8E+15sej/ha/yr Y = total solar emergy input = 1+F = 22.IE+15 sej/ha/yr Net yield ratio = YIF = 8:I Investment ratio = F/I = 0.15 Solar transforrnity = (22.IE+15 sej/ha/yr) / (1.68E+1l J/ha/yr) = 131600 sejIIRenewable emergy density for country [R/ha] = [R(waves. tides)] / (areaofPNG) = (712E+20 sej/yr) / (46.2E+6 ha) = 1.54E+15sej/ha Ecological support area = 1(I.OOr)/ (R/ha) = (16.9 E+15 sej/ha/yr) / (1.54E+15 sej/ha/yr) = 113B-9

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This value isofsimilar magnitudeofother agricultural crops in tropical regions (2E+5 sej/J). A net emergy yield ratioof8:1 and an investment ratioof0.15 suggest the importanceofenvironmental sources in sago palm cultivation. Most other agro-forest operations yield much lower returns on investment [compare for example harvested lowland rainforest wood at 4: I (Table B-1)]. An ecological support areaof11ha for each hectareofsago palm further demonstrates the roleofthe environment in rural productionofindigenous crops.SUBSYSTEMS ANALYSISOFSWEET POTATO PRODUCTIONAlthough not native to Papua New Guinea, the sweet potato or yam (Ipomea batatas) has quantitatively been the most important food crop in subsistence agriculture (Kimber 1972). Asof1985, sweet potato production was worth an estimated K200 million per year (0.22 trillion US$)(Bourke 1985).Noother single crop, including exports crops, contributes as much to the national economy. Over 100,000 haofsweet potato are planted throughout the country. As well as being a major subsistence crop, sweet potato is now an important cash crop with over 450,000 tons produced per annum. The roleofthe sweet potato in village life has been widely reported through ethnographic and agronomic studies (Rappaport 1968; Malynicz 1971; Kimber 1972; Bourke 1977; Grossman 1984 among many others). The principle products are cooked tubers for human consumption and raw tubers, vines and leaves used as pig feed. In this overview analysis, 22.4 tons/haofsweet potato produced annually was used as an average production (from Grossman 1984 and Bourke 1985). Purchased inputs included fertilizers as well as goods and services supporting village labor. About 30%ofa villager's time was estimated spent tending sweet potato gardens (2770 hrs/yr). This value was determined as the averageoftwo activities studies in Papua New Guinea villages (Lea 1970 and Grossman 1984). Solar emergy basis for labor and its ecological support area were determined using the methods given in the subsystems analysisofsago palm. Solar emergy flows are sununarized in Figure B-4 with accompanying calculations given as footnotes. A solar transformityof52,\00sej/J was calculated for sweet potato. A net emergy yield ratioof12: 13B-1O

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1.50.2 H,,_2_._4_--i Sweetpotat0 )---,'-,3-,.-,5_--.0Farming259x109J/ha yr Solar transformity = Net yield ratio = Investment ratio=52,100 sej/J12 0.14Figure B-4. Aggregated systems diagramofsweet potato productionina typical highland village. All pathway values arelOISsej/ha/yr for average production.Footnotes10Figure BA. Sweet potato yield=(22.4 tonslha/yr)(lE+6g/t) (2.77 kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal)=2.59E+11 Jlha/yr Chemical rain=(2.62 m/yr)(looOOm2lha) (1000 kg/m3) (4940 Jlkg)=L29E+11Jlha/yr;(L29E+11 Jlha/yr) (l82oo sej/I)=2.36E+15 sej/ha/yr Nitrogen fertilizer=(100 kg/ha/yr) (1000 gikg) (0.82) (0.1)(2t70Jig)=J.78E+7 Jlha/yr; (L78E+7 Jlha/yr) (L69E+6 sejlJ)=301E+13sej/ha/yr; Potash=(lookg/ha/yr) (1000 gikg) (0.53) (702Jig)=3.72E+7 Jlha/yr; (3.72E+7 J/ha/yr) (2.62E+6 sej/J)=9.75E+13 sejlha/yr; Phosphorus=(50 kg/ha/yr) (1000 gikg) (0.33) (0.1) (348Jig)=5.74E+5 Jlha/yr; (5.74E+5 J/ha/yr) (4.14 E+7 sejlJ)=2.38E+13sejlha/yr; total fertilizer input=O.l5E+15 sejlha/yr Village labor=2768 hrs/ha/yr (Lea 1970 and Grossman 1984): (2768hrs/ha/yr)/(8736hrs/yr)=32%ofannual activity; (Viperson)=34.7E+15 sej/person (fable A-3, item 16); (0.32) (34.7E+15 sej/per)=ILOE+15 sej/ha/yr Environmental support for labor, [I(I.be')]=R/U=86% (fable A-3, item8);(0.86)(lLOE+15 sej/yr)=9.45E+15 sejlha/yr Outside village support for labor, [F(I.be')]=I -R/U=I 0.86=0.14; (0.14) (l LOE+15 sej/yr)=L54E+15 sej/ha/yr I=total ecosystem emergy=chemicalrain +1(I.bo,)=(2.36 + 9.45) E+15 sej/ha/yr=IL81E+15 sej/ha/yr F=total support outside village=fertilizers +F(I.bo,)=(0.15 + 1.54) E+15 sej/ha/yr=L69E+15 sejlha/yr Y=total solar emergy input=I+F=(11.81 +(69) E+15 sej/ha/yr=13.5E+15 sej/ha/yr Net yield ratio=Y/F=12:1Investmentratio=FIl=0.14Solar transformily=(l3.5E+15 sejlha/yr)I(2.59E+ll Jlha/yr)=52100 sej/J Ecological support area=1(I.bo,)I(Rlha)=(9.45E+15 sej/ha/yr)I(L54E+15 sej/ha/yr)=6.13B-1I

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suggests a greater return on labor and investment than either rainforest woodorsago palm production. More than seven times as much solar emergy is contributed from environmental sources than from outside goods and services delivered outside the village as illustrated by an investment ratioof0.14. An ecological support areaof6 ha means that six hectaresofsurrounding environment is requiredor"used" by villagers indirectly in supportofone hectareofsweet potato gardens. In eachofthese studies, as well as the analysisoftourism (Section D), it is clear that resources from surrounding areas are needed to support not only production or proposed development, but the people themselves. In fact,itis this "ecological support area" that determines the large net yields forrural production systems.Itis therefore unreasonable to assume that muchofthe country could be opened for development since a large portionofit is required for supportofrural production systems, the people and their lifestyles. Further, cash crops and tourist activities generally draw emergy away from local production systems because, as shown in Section A, the revenues cannot purchase an equivalent amountofsolar emergy as was soldtooverseas buyers. These issues will be further explored in the Recommendations and Conclusions Sectionofthis report.3B-12

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Section C: Rainforest-Land Rotation ModelbySJ.DohertyINTRODUCfIONLarge scale clear-fell logging operations in the tropical lowland rainforestsofPapua New Guinea began in 1973 with the GogoUJANT timber project. This operation has since cleared allofits 68,140 hectaresatan annual cutting rateof3-4000hectare per annum (Seddon 1984). Eighty-seven percentofthe cleared areas have naturally reverted to secondary regrowth and grasslands, while only 4800 hectares (13%) have been actively reforested (Qureshi etal1988). A studyofthe site indicates that primary and secondary trees account for only15and I percent, respectively,ofthe abandoned clear-fell area (Saulei 1984). Further, mostofthe regrowth was achieved by coppicing from old tree stumps and germinationofthe stored seed bank in the soil. There is little indicationofseed dispersal from adjacent forests (Saulei 1984).Atthe timeofthis research, forestry staff indicated that the government had put a haltonall forestry projects until a thorough assessmentofthe costs (including land, forest products, and money lost overseas) incurred from the Gogol Valley project is complete. Due to problemsofslope, heavy rains, and increased runoff with land clearings, forestry projects are met with limited success in most partsofPapua New Guinea. A better understandingofthe roleofforest seed reserves left in place to aid secondary succession through recolonizationofforest species and the multiplicative effects from clearcutsofincreasing size are sought to alleviate someofthe problemsofthe past. As an initial inquiry into the problems with forestry in lowland rainforest areasofdifficult terrain, a computer simulation model was developed to explore the relationships between forest production, harvest rates and the rotation oflands between forested and unforested states.MODEL DESCRIPTIONA theoretical modeloftimber extraction and the resulting patternsoflandscape disturbance is presented which addresses someoftheproblems caused by large scale clear-cutting and raw resource extraction in lowland rainforests. The model, shown in FigureC-l,rotates land area between three3C-l

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YieldRainforestRunoff=JI (1+KBF)oK OJo --....Sun,RainFigure C-l. Energy systems diagramofthe rainforest-land rotation model Variables (k,) are pathway coefficients; their mathematical expressionsaregiven in Table C-I and explainedinthe text

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4001 110. 0 / I380tons OM/ha til 300I7.5..c til -::2 ..cI0--Forest biomass ::2Ul 0 "c Ul I g c0 a...a...Ul 200I5.0z m cE.0 t5 0 I.0 I ,:J 1ii I ,"0 INPP e I, a. 0Iu..100,2.5 ..... ,Q) ZIII I I ,, L I 1.......... ..... _--....... _--0'255075100125150YearsFigure C-2. Outputofmodel simulationofrainforest growthandnet primary production over150years. A mature steady state forest(NPP=0) takes143years.

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conditions: 1) native forest [F] (though mostly second growth); 2) cleared land [C] immediately following harvest; and 3) degraded land[D]which results from both the scaleofclearcuts as well as erosionofexposed top soil from the runoffofheavy rains. The percentageofland that is forested[F]is directly proportional to amountofforest biomass [B] present. Forest biomass changes as a functionofits own mass, respiration, and the environmental inputs which drive production as well as the rateofland returning to forest. The systems diagram is a visual expressionofthe mathematics which determine the flows and storages within the model. A setofcalibrated values for initial storages and flows were determined for steady state forest production (TableC-l).Data were synthesized from Saulei (1984), Brown and Lugo (1984), Odum (1971) and Vitouseketal (1971). A mature tropical lowland rainforest was estimated to have a standing cropof380 tons/ha (item 2, TableC-I)and an average annual gross productionof42 tons/ha/yr [20,000 kcaVm'/yr] (item 6). These values were calibrated to determine transfer coefficients (k) for each pathway and ratesofchange for state variables when the model is simulated (items 5-12). A computer program written in BASIC is listed in Table C-2. In this program are the mathematical expressions that represent pathways and rate equations that represent changes in state variables. The environmental energy driving forest production was considered the amountofincident rain that is transpired. This is a flow-limited source; only a given amountofrain is available during any given time period (3.73 mlyear). Thus forest production is limitedifall incident rain is transpired [initial capture was estimated as 60%ofincoming rainfall for a mature forest; see TableC-l(1)]. The more biomass that is present the greater the percentageofincoming rain that is transpired, and less is runoff. Notice that some pathways are connected to state variables by a small rectangular box. This symbol, called a sensor, indicates that the state variable changes in proportion to the flow or storage where the symbol is located, but does not directly draw from that floworstorage. In the exampleofdegraded land [D], cleared land [C] becomes degraded as a functionofthe amountofrunoff [R] -the greater the amountofrain that is unused and runoffs, the greater the rate at which recently cleared land becomes degraded.3C-3

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Table C-I. Calibrationofvariables and coefficients for Rainforest-Land Rotation Model (RF vec2.BAS) correspondingtosystems diagram in Figure C-I. Sources: I Total incident energy inflows(10):184.3 E+9J/ha/yra.Energy used by system(kO*R*B):110.6 E+9 J/ha/yr b. Available energy. unused(R):73.7 E+9 J/ha/yr State variables: 2 B= Forest biomass (380 tons/ha): 7.603 E+12 J/ha 3 Land quality types:a.F= Forested land = 1 hab.C= Recent! y cleared land = 1 ha c. D= Degraded land = 1 ha 4 Mangement switch: H= Harvest 1= begin cuttingo= stop cutting Flow equations (E+12 J/ha/year): 5 Available incident energy R=10/(1+kO*B*F)= 0.0737;kO= 0.197291 6 Average annual production kl*R*B*F = 0.8372;kl= 1.494009 7 Annual harvest k2*B*H = 0.4186;k2=0.055057 8 Forested land that is cleared k3*F*(k2*B*H) = 0.0551;k3= 0.131527 9 Cleared land that is degraded K4*C*R = 0.0275; k4 = 0.37350210Cleared land returning to forest k5*C*B2= 0.0275;k5=0.00047611Degraded land returning to forest k6*D*B = 0.0275; k6 = 0.00362112Forest metabolism k7*B = 0.8372; k7 = 0.110114FootnotestoTable C-I Chemical fOtential energy in transpired rainfall: annual rainfall=3.73rn/yr;evafOtranpiration=60%;runoff (100 %ET)=40% Total energy corningin(JO):(3.73 m) (10.000 m') (1000 kg/m') (4940 Jlkg)=1.8426E+llb.Incident energy used by forest system=evapotranspired rain(kO*R*B)=(%ET)(JO)=1.1056E+ll J/ha/yrc.Available energy. unsed=runoff [remainder(R)]=10I(I +kO*B)=(% runofO (IO)=7.3704E+1O J/ha/yr 2 Energyinforest biomass[(B)after 143 years of growth; (36yrsto reach 50%ofsteady state storage]:Organicmatterinstemwood biomass=380tonslha (BrownandLugo 1984);Caloric contentperunit mass=4.78kcaVg(E.P. Odum 1971) (380 tons OM/ha) (lE+6 g/ton) (4.78kcaVg)(4186 Jlkcal)=7.603E+12 J/ha3C-4

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FootnotestoTable C-I, continued. 3 Rotational lands: At steady state calibration, each land covertypeoccupied Iha (1/3 total area).4 Harvest (H)isa management switchthatisturned on(1)oroff(0) to initiate or stop forest cutting basedonextentofforested land available. 5 Available incident energy=unused cheotical energy from rainfall (i.e., muofl); seelb.6 Annual production (GPP=kl*R*B)=20,000 kcallm'/yr, Vitousek 1971): (2.0E+4 kcallm'/yr) (10,000 m'/ha) (4186 Jlkcal)=8.372E+11 J/hafyr=41.84 tons OM/hafyr7Annualharvest (k2"'B*H): considered 50%ofannual productionatsteady state:(0.837E+12 J/hafyr) (50%)=0.4185E+12 J/hafyr cut(21tons/ha/yr) then, (0.4185E+12 J/ha/yr) / (7.603E+12 J/ha mature forest biomass)=5.51% 8 Forested land cleared [k3*F*(k2*B*H)]=constant percentofharvested biomass: 5.51% (F)=0.055 hafyr 9 Cleared land that is degraded (k4*C*R)=50%;10Cleared land returnedtoforested land (k5*C*B')=50%; (0.0551 hal (50%)=0.0275 ha/yr11Degraded lands returning to forested lands (k6*D*B)=50%12Annual forest metabolism (Respiration + Death=k7*B):NPP=OPP Respiration;atsteady state NPP=0, therefore OPP=Respiration:kl*R*B*F=k7*BForestturnovertime:(forestbiomass)I (armual production)=(7.603E+12 J/ha) / (0.837E+12 J/hafyr)=9.08 years=11.0 % annual replacement3C-S

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Table C-2. BASIC computer program used in simulationofRainforest-Land Rotation Model. I REM filename: RF ver_2.BAS 5 REM PNG Rainforest Land Rotation Simulation Model 10 CLS 'Clears monitor for new simulation 20 REM Opens output me tostore data for graphic analysis:21'OPEN "B:\RF-OUT.PRN" FOR OUTPUT AS#130 REM Sets coordinatesofgraph for monitor display:31SCREENI,I:COLOR 0,I32 REM Colors are defined at endofLINE and PSET statements as: 33 REMI= blue; 2= purple; 3= white 34 LINE (0, 0)-(300, 180), 3, B 35 LINE (0, 1(0)-(300, 1(0), 3, B 36 LINE(0,45)-(300, 45), 3, B 40 REM Initial values:41I=I42 T=I 50 REM Management switches:51CUT=2.9 52 GROW =I53H=I60 REM Scaling factors:61FO=25 62CO=2563DO=2564BO=.2565YO=6066TO=I70 REM Inputs (chemical potential energy driving grossproduction):71JO= .18426 80 REM Initial Storages:81B=.76 82 F=I;C= 1;: D=1 90 REM Transfer coefficients:91kO= .197291 92kl= 1.494009 93k2= .055057 94 k3 = .131527 95 k4 = .373502 96k5= .000476 97 k6 = .00362198k7=.110114 100 REM Sets X,Y coordinates for monitor display:101PSET (TITO,45 -Y*YO),I'Yield(Y)is displayed in top graph 102 PSET (TITO,100 -B/BO),2'Biomassis graphed second from top 103 PSET(TITO,170 -C*CO),3'Clearedland is displayed in lower graph 104 PSET (TITO,160 -D*DO),1'Degradedland is displayed in lower graph3C-6

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Table C-2, continued. 110 REM Management alternatives:IIIIFF> CUT THEN H=I' Begin harvesting112IFF=3 THEN GOTO 400 330 REM Reset initiation values:331T=1 332 Ytot =0 340 GOTO 60 400 END3C-7

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Theamountofforestedlandavailable for reseedingactsasa controlovertherateofbiomassproduction.Here,biomass[B]is increased proportionallytothechangeinforestedland[F]asindicatedby thepathwayexpression k,RBF.Thisisameasureofgrossprimary production(GPP).For initial calibration, themodelwasset at steady state for amaturerainforest. At steady state,thereisnonet primary production(NPP),andforest respiration(R,definedasforest metabolismanddeath)wascalculatedtoequalgrossprimary production [(k,B)=(k,RBF)].Asanapproximationoftheeffectsofspatial scale of landclearingsonseeddispersalfromforest biomass, a sensorwasput on the biomass variablewhichcontrolsthe rate atwhichclearedanddegradedlandsreturn toforest.Ifthere istoolittle land leftasseedrefugia,thesuccessionalabilityofforestclearingsisslowedbylackofseed reserves.Clearedland,however,can becycledbacktoforestasa squarefunctionof thebiomassbecauseofits limitedscale(k,CB2).Asmoreofthe forestiscut,morelandbecomesclearedandconsequentlymorelandbecomesdegraded.Therate atwhichclearedlandbecomesdegraded[D]isafunctionoftheamountofclearedland[C]andamountofmnoff[R]duetolowforest cover--thus the pathway expressionk.CR.Thegravitymodelsuggeststhatcommunication(in thiscasegeneticdispersal byseeds)isaphenomenonofthe squareddistancebetweentwoobjects(FormanandGodron1987).Oncelandhasbecomedegraded it ismoredifficult forsecondarysuccessiontoregenerateforest.Thereforedegradedlandonlycyclesbacktoforestasasimplemultiplier interactionwithbiomassasa control (k.,CB). Finally,cuttingofforest biomassisactivated with aswitch[H],representinggoodsandservices, thatiseitheron(1)oroff(0).Thusacertainpercentageofforestbiomassisharvestedasafunctionofthe transfer coefficient k,. Intheinitial calibration, forestswerecut at a rateequalto50%ofaverageannualproduction or about5%ofmature forest biomass at steady state[TableC-l(7)].Thisvaluewaschosenasit closely approximates the harvestscheduleofGogoVJANT.Eachofthreelandconditionsweregivenequalarea(1haeach,totalling 3ha)formodelcalibration.Sincethemodeltracksbiomassona perhectarebasis, the resultsofthemodelcanbeinterpreted perhectare.Thus,eachlandtypecanbeconsideredtorepresent a percentageofthe total (i.e., 1=33%ofland total).Managementswitches,therefore,rotate forestlandbetweenvaluesof0and3(0%and100%).Next, afewoutcomesofmodelsimulationaregivento illustrate trendsandforecast predictions,followedbysomesimplemanagementrecommendationsbasedoninsightsgainedfromthemodel.3C-8

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MODEL SIMULATIONFirst, only the forest production and metabolism componentsofthe model were run in order to determine forest maturation and turnover times. Based on 3.73 metersofincident rainfall driving an average gross primary production (GPP)of42tonslha/yr, about 140 years is required for the system to develop a mature forestof380tons OMlha (Figure C-2). Maximum net primary production (NPP) was measured at 34 years (9.4 tons OMlha/yr).Ata mature steady state gross production is balanced with forest respiration and net production equals zero. These calibrations suggest that this forest system has an annual replacement rateofabout 10% (Table C-J). State variables and production processes are calibrated in energy units (Jlha for biomass storage and Jlha/yr for production and harvest yields). Therefore in order to express model outputs on a volume basis, the values must be converted using an energy contentof4.78kcaVg (20000JIg)and the estimate for biomass volume (380 tons OMlha). These conversions are given in TableC-Iand discussed in the text. The next step was to simulate the model using all state variables, i.e. incorporatingthe rotationoflandstorages with forest production and harvesting schedules. Forest harvesting is started and stopped with a switch (H) in the program, based on management alternatives which are input by the user. Two variables determine the harvesting schedule:CUTandGROW(lines 110-112). The forest is allowed to grow until its land area reaches a value set by the variableCUT,atwhich time harvesting begins until the forested area is below a value set by variableGROW(lines 50-53). Input values range between 0 and 3 (0% and 100%oflandarea as explained in the methods). A management periodof300 years was chosen in order to simulate long-term trends based on forest growth, harvest schedules and land rotations. Thus, annual changes in forest production, harvest volumes and land cover are re-calculated each time the program loop is executed for 300 iterations (subroutine I). This simulation period allows a natural forest to complete two full successional cyclesofgrowth (143 years to maturation) and the biomass to turn over more than 20 times, as well as adequate time to observe trends from harvest schedules and land rotations. 3C-9

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ht the exampleinFigureC-3,the rainforestwasallowedto grow until itreached57% (cur =1.7)ofthetotal landarea.Harvesting then began untiltheamountofforestedlandwasreducedto30%(GROW=0.9), atwhichtimecuttingisstoppedandtheclearedanddegradedlandsbegin to recover to forest. This managementscheduleresultedina rotationofabout60years.Forest biomass(middlegraph)recoversquicklyassecondary growth is mostrapidinearly stagesofsuccession.Before net production begins todeclineasthe forest matures toward steady state, the forestedlandisagain harvestedwhenithasrecovered57%ofthelandinrotation.Landsrotatebetweenforested,clearedanddegraded states(lowergraphforestedlandisnotshownasitchangesindirect proportiontoforest biomass). Harvest yields (upper graph)aregreatest at iuitial cuttingwhenbiomassishighest,anddeclinesinvolumeasthe return per uuit harvesting effort increases. ht this example,yieldsrangebetween5and7 tonslha/year,onaveragewith a totalyieldof870tonslha over 300 years. ht a seriesofcomputer runs, theminimumamountofforestlandrequired before harvestingwasdiscontinuedwasheldconstant (i.e.,GROW=0.9; 30%)whilethe extentofrecoveredforest land required before harvestingcouldbegin again (i.e., cur) waschangedbyincrementsof0.05(approximately2%changeintotallandcover).Theharvestscheduledescribedabove(andshowninFigureC-3), rotating forestedlandbetween30and57%,wasdeterminedto yield the greatestvolumeoutput overthe300 year simulation period, without degrading forestlandstoanunrecoverable extent. FigureC-4showsthe resultsofthis simulation,changingboththeharvest timesandrecoverytimes(givenassubroutine 2 in program).Herethe totalyieldover300yearsis calculated based on extentofforestlandnecessary before harvestingcanbeginaswellastheminimumextent atwhichtimeharvestingisstopped.Forest yieldsarereducedasafunctionofthe extent of forest land required by management for a particular rotationschedule.Itappears that maintaining forestlandextentbetweenabout60%(before cutting begins)and30%(whencutting stops)yieldsthegreatestvolumeofbiomasswhilestill allowing thelandenoughtimeandresources to recover toforest.3C-ll

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10 OJ'1e ..--...."-.. "".. .. ".. ".... .... .. ...." 't..., .....," _-Degraded land Cleared land..-..... .,"\ ,............' .. .. ...."""'.. ", '\, .... ............. .. ...._ ...-;#' .....10170 OJ'::. 0.. c: 0 e .. 13 E .Q m01.5 OJ'oS! oI I 50 100 1502lXl25Daoo YearsFigure C-3. Simulationofbiomass yield (upper graph), rainforest growth (middle), and land rotations (lower) based on 57/30 harvest schedule over 300year management scenario (start cutting when forest land reaches 57%oftotal land area; Stop cutting when forest land reaches 30%).

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100030 .. Forestlandbeforeharvestbegins[CUT]800 !!!1Il Q) >0 0 C') 600 ....mlisc: 0400 "0a;>200r\ I /\ 57 '" ,\ ,-''\.. \/\ \..'. \./'\ 72. .",".,.. '."'.J' './,\ ...\ .. _..-...... \.\"" .._0\ "\-"-"" ..,oo102030405060 7080%Minimumforestland[GROW]90100Figure C-4. Simulationoftotal harvest yields over 300 years (Y-axis) due to changes in minimum and maximum allowable land rotations. X-axis is the minimum amountofforest land allowed before cuning is stopped[GROW].Graphedare results based on forest land requirementsof30%, 57%, and 72% necessary before cutting is again started[CUT].

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DISCUSSIONThe rainforest-land rotation model presented here simulates forest production and recovery basedonharvest schedules and rotationoflandbetween forested and two statesofpost-clearcut lands.Itmakes an attemptataccounting for conditionsofincreased runoff from forest cover removal compounded by high rainfall and mountainous terrain. Forest operations in Papua New Guinea have faced these adverse conditions with limited success in the past (Saulei 1984 and Seddon 1984). It is shown that previously forested lands can quickly degradeand that degraded land is slow to recover. Further, the abilityofcleared lands to reforest is not a simple linear functionofavailable forest seed reserves; harvest schedules, recovery times, proximate forest reserves, and spatial extentofclearcuts, among others, all contribute to successful and sustainable forest management practices. The model illustrates someofthese principles.Iffor example, harvesting began before the forest had recovered, cleared lands became degraded and land could no longer recover. Alsoifthe forest is not cut before the forest begins to mature and net production declines, total yield also declines. A question not addressed with this model is "whatisthe optimum harvesting schedule not only for maximizing yield but minimizing investment" -i.e., optimizing effort. Forest plantations are generally managedonrotations that cut the forest when it is at its maximum net production (the inflection point in Figure C-2; 34 years). In fact the rotation schedules determined by this model to maximize yields include this interval. Further, forest trees could be harvested in small quantities but at very rapid intervals so that the effect is an almost continual thinning program. This combination, however, would not reduce investment inputsbutrather increase them, diminishing thenetreturn on investment. An evaluationofsolar emergy supporting forest production as well as the solar emergy in required economic investments may provide the information needed to determine net yield and investment ratiosfor forest schedules. The subsystems analysisofforest operations in New Britain (Section B) found that 3 times as much solar emergy is contributed from environmental sources than from the main economy in rainforest harvests, providing a net yield on investmentsofabout 4 to I (Table B-1). In New Britain, annual harvests were estimated to be about 2%ofstanding crop--a rate slower than reported by GogoVJANT and slower than the5%cutting rate used in this model.3C-14

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These questionsofnet return and investment should be addressed as a next stepofmodel development, using solar emergy as a baseline unitofmeasure. As in the past, rainforests, their services and products, will continue to play important roles in the qualityoflifeofnationals and the sustainable developmentoftheir resource base. This was demonstrated in calculationofmacro-economic values for forest reserves (Table A 5) and in the 4: I net yield ratio determined for forest operations in New Britain. The few general recommendations that are given here are based on energetic, temporal and spatial considerations. This modelofforest-land rotation is presented as an exercise to investigate someofthe problemsforest operations are faced within diverse rainforest systems on difficult terrain and to begin considering harvesting schedules that are appropriate for a given setofsite conditions. Management goals ultimately should pertain to more thanjustresource output yields and begin to ensure the full rangeofecologic values and functions remain intact.3C-lS

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SectionD:Emergy Basis for Determining the Carrying Capacity of Tourismby MarkT.Brown and RichardC.MurphyINTRODUCfIONWith the recently increased emphasis placed on tourism and on attracting economic investment for tourism development by many govermnents around the world, some hard questions are beginningtoemerge. Is tourist development the environmentally benign industry it is touted to be? Is tourist development beneficial to local cultures and economies? Is tourist development a formofsustainable development that should be encouraged in developing economiesofthe world? This portionofthe study investigates the relationshipofoutside investment, in general, and tourism development, in particular, to cultural and environmental integrity, and to local economies, regional welfare, and international balanceofpayments. Using data from tourism development in New Britain, Papua New Guinea and a related study in Nayarit, Mexico, and techniquesofemergy analysis, several questions related to economic development are addressed:(I)What is the carrying capacity for outside economic investment within local, undeveloped regions that is environmentally and culturally benign and economically beneficial? (2) What are the benefits and costsofdiffering intensitiesofdevelopment? (3) What intensityofeconomic development is most beneficial to the economy and welfareofpopulations?EcotourismandIntensityofEconomicInvestmentRecently, ecotourism (Laarman and Durst 1987, Boo 1989) has been coined to mean a varietyofthings, but primarily to mean tourism that has an ecological imperative. Ecotourism should not only seek to expose tourists to the environmentofa region, but should also be balanced with the local environment and not cause cultural degradationorserious economic shifts. There is much in the literature documenting the consequencesoflarge development projects on the culture, environment, and economyofrelatively "underdeveloped" regions (e.g., Archer and Sadler 1976; Archer 1985;Bum1975; Caribbean Tourism Research Center 1976, 1977a,b; Cohen 1978; Edelman 1975 a, b; Jenkins 1982; Oliver-Smith etaf.1989; Rodenburg 1980). Someofthe documented impacts are as follows:3D-I

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Cross-cultural contacts resultinchangesintraditional dress, habits, values, ethics,andsocial organization. Local economiesbecomemoreexternalizedaswagesarepaidtopopulationswhonever usedmoneybeforeandwhohavetoimportgoodsandresources to purchase. Additional strainisplacedontheenvironmenttoprovidefood,building materials,andother serviceslikewaste recycling,whichresultinlossofenvironmentalvalueandcapacity for supportofthe population.Localcontrolofresourceslikelandandwaterislostasthe result of their saletoforeign investors.Inall,thelarger the developmentandits intensity,thegreaterthepotentialfornegative impactsonculture, environment,andeconomy (Jenkins 1982, Rodenburg1980).Thus, ecotourism that seekstoexposethetravelertoa natural environment without regardtotheeffect a visitor's presence has on that environmentmaynotbesustainable inthelongrun.Tobetrulyanecotourist development, it should neither exceedthecarrying capacityofthelocalenvironmentandculture, nor cause secondary or tertiary environmental degradation. Tourism as an Extractive Industry Economic investmentsinundeveloped regionsoftheworldare,forthemost part, investmentsinextractive enterprises.Theinvestmentsareusedtoassemblethetechnologyandpaythehuman labor necessarytoextract resourcesandsellthemformorethanthecosts of extraction.Inaway,tourist developmentisanextractive enterprise.Theresourcesaremorevaried:sun,wind,waves,andscenic vistas,aswellasanunspoiled environmentanda dissimilarculture.Unlike other extractive industry,thetourist industry does not cut,dig,or catch its resourceandthereby exhaustthereserve.Yetwithover-exploitation,thetourist resourceis"used up" (MathiesonandWall1982).Toomanytourists translates intolossofenvironmental qualityandshiftingofthelocalcultureawayfromtraditional elements thatwereof interest, towardthevalues, customs, andfadsoftheoutside culture.Thequestion regarding outside investmentandits sustainabilityis:howmuchistoomuch?Atcertain levelsofinvestmentandforcertain resources,theextracted resourcemaylast indefinitelybecause itisrenewedata rate thatisequivalent to orlessthantherateatwhichitisextracted. Under these circumstancesthedevelopmentisoften describedassustainable.Asinother typesofextractive investments, tourism30-2

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developmenthasanappropriate intensityofinvestmentatwhichitwillnotexceedtheability ofthelocalenvironmentandculturetoabsorb it (Edelman 1975a,b;GunnandJafari1980).Determiningtheappropriate intensityofdevelopment thatdoesnot cause negative cultural,economic,or ecologic impactsiswhatismeantbydetermining the economic carrying capacityofanextemal investment. The Benefits and Costs of Economic Investments Formanyyears, economic investmentsinundeveloped and developing regionshavebeen considered beneficialtothelocaleconomy.Theincreased number of jobsandhigherwageswerecitedasproof of the positive benefitsofinvestment. Forthemost part, ithaslongbeen believed thatthebigger the project,thegreaterthebenefit to thelocaleconomy,since biggeralwaystranslated intomorejobsandgreater payrolls.Infact,theoppositeinmanycaseswastrue.Large projects often displacedlocalpopulations, disordered the environment, and disruptedthelocaleconomicsystem.Smaller projects, scaledtothelocaleconomyandsocial organization,werebetter integrated intotheeconomyandcausedlesssocialandenvironmental disruption (Jenkins 1982, LichtyandSteinnes 1982, Rodenburg1980).Itappears thataneconomic investmentfromoutsidecaneither acttoamplify existing socialandecologic orderandstimulatethelocaleconomy,or itcanactasa disruptiveforce,muchlikea disaster.Infact, "economic earthquake" mightbea fittingwayofdescribing what happenstolocal, small-scale economies and social organizationwhenlarge-scale investmentsoccur.Thegreaterthedifferencesinintensity between existing systemsandimposed developments,themoredisaster-liketheybecome.The Disappearing Benefits of Economic Investments Experience hasshownthatsomeeconomicinvestments have not yieldedthebenefitstolocaleconomies thatwereanticipated(Oliver-Smith etal.1989).This resultsfromseveral different but complementary factors: First, investmentsfromoutside mustberepaid.Considering current interest ratesandtheemergytrade advantageenjoyedby most developed nations over undeveloped nations, investing nations receive farmorefromtheir investments than just repayment of principleandinterest(Odum1984,Odumetal.1986,Odumand Arding 1991).Theundeveloped nationfindsthatmorenational wealthflowsout of theireconomythanflowsinastheresultofanunfavorableemergyexchange ratio.Second,iftheinvestmentisfromsources outside the region, little of the currency generatedbyit remains withinthelocaleconomy(Oliver-Smith etal.3D-3

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1989). Other than alocalpayrollandsomeuser taxes, if a development project uses fundsfromelsewhereandisforeignowned,mostofthecurrency generatedis"drawn"back outsidetheregionasprofitanddebtservice.Third,thecurrency thatisaddedtothelocaleconomycauseslocalinflation (Oliver-Smith etal.1989).Whenmoremoney"chases"thesame amountofresources, prices rise. Unaccountable Costs of Economic Investments Impact analyses aimedatdetermining costsandbenefits oftenfailtoproperly accountforcosts, especially social and environmental costs (Archer1985,Burn 1975, Cohen 1983, Pigram 1980, Wang etal.1980).Wheneconomic benefit/cost accountingisused,thebenefitsareeasily quantified using a monetary system ofvalue,but socialandenvironmental costs, sincetheyareoutsidethemoniedeconomy,areoften not included becausetheyare not easily or reliably quantifiedinmonetary units.Theresulting pictureofeconomicbenefitsisone-sided, showing increased numbers of peopleemployedandmoneyflowing throughtheeconomy,but not including increased costs of social disorder, orlossof environmental systems or services. Impacts of Economic Investments Emergy analysismayoffer amorecomplete perspectiveoftheimpactsofeconomicinvestmentsontheecologicalandcultural resourcesofregions. A systems perspectiveofa region suggests that its ecological, economic, and cultural systemsareclosely inter-twined.Asa region'seconomicsystem changes,forexample, thereareresulting changesinits ecologicalandcultural systems,astheincreasedeconomicactivity affects a wider and wider spatial areaandmaycause changesinvaluesandethics.Theextent of changeineachofthese systemsismoreorless dependentontheextentofchangeintheother.Figure D-I illustratestheinterconnections between environmental, cultural,andeconomicsystems ofregions.A balancedandwelladapted subsistenceeconomymighthavetheorganization depictedinFigure D-la. Ecological resources are extractedbytheeconomic system, convertedtogoods,andconsumedbycultural componentswhich,inturn,providethenecessary organizational structureand"manpower"fortheeconomicsystem.By-productsoftheeconomic systemarerecycled backtotheenvironment, and infonnationand"good stewardship"arefedbackfromculture.Thedriving forcesarerenewable emergiesshowncomingfromtheleft sideofthediagramandthenonrenewable emergy storagesfromwithin.Theoverall system that develops (i.e.,thelevelsofecological productivity, economic activity,andcultural organization)is,toa large degree, dependentonthemagnitudeofrenewableemergyflowandthenonrenewable storages thatareavailable.30-4

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Economic investment from outside can be depicted like that in the bottom diagram (FigureD-Ib). Investment dollars are used to purchase fuels, goods, and services from outside the local economy. A second outside energy source now influences the system. As a resultofthe connections between componentsofthe regional system, any increase in one compartment affects the other two compartments (whether they increaseordecrease depends on the natureofthe interconnections and is not necessarily importantatthis point). The bigger the influenceofoutside investment (that is, the bigger themagnitudeofthe flows coming from the top right compared to the flows coming from the left), the greater the impact. The emergy analysis technique utilized in this study quantitatively evaluates the relative sizeofbothofthese driving energy flows in a regional economy, and suggests that the appropriate intensityofa new economic investment is one that does not alter their relative proportion significantly (Odum 1980). The secondary impactofeconomic investments is also illustrated in Figure D-Ib. Economic investments from outside are made as a meansoffinancing enterprises that either directly extract natural resources (e.g., wood, minerals, fuels,orfish) and sell them to outside markets,orto develop enterprises for the conversionofresources within the local economy (hydroelectric projects or tourist developments). In either case, the "attracted" investments carry with them a significant debt that must be repaid and which is financed through the export and saleofresources. The net benefitofinvestments from outside to the local economy, then, becomes a matterofdetermining the balance between what is purchased with the investment, and the resources that are exported over the long term. Additional insight related to the net benefit from investment is gained using emergy analysis. Oneofthe basic principlesofthe emergy systems perspective is that true wealth comes from resources, not from money (Odum and Arding 1991). Money can be used to purchase resources, but the money in itself is not representativeofwealth. Evaluating international trade and net benefit from investments using only the inflows and outflowsofcurrency often shows a monetary balanceofpayments,butdoes not take into account the inflows and outflowsofwealth. Often, the investing economy receives double benefit--the resources extracted directly, and the resources that must be extracted and sold by the developing economy in order to pay interest on outside loans. Most developing economies seek money from outside sources insteadofseeking resources (the true basisofwealth), and thus often sell their wealth cheaply to purchase economic goods that have less effect in stimulating their economy and that do not lead to a sustainable future.3D-5

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Environmental System Renewab.Energy -....../ / \/\II III I I II,\,./ ,/ RenewableEnergy ",,-_/" I \I \IIIJIII IIIII\ I '--_/ EnvironmentalSystemCulturalSystemEconomicSystem --$-avExporta Figure0-1.Systemsdiagramofa regional economy havingnotrade with external maIkets (top) and an economy that has developed trade (bottom). Money is shownasdashed lines, and energy and information flowsassolid lines. While invested money may circulate within the economic system, eventually, like incomefromexports, it is usedtopurchase goods and services from external economies.3D-6

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A Theoretical Approach to Determining Carrying Capacity of Local EnvironmentsOnetheoryfordetermining carrying capacityisthatthescaleorintensity ofdevelopment!inrelationtoexisting conditionsmaybecriticalinpredicting its effectandultimately its sustainability (Odum 1980,OdumandArding 1991).Ifa development's intensityismuchgreater than thatwhichischaracteristicofthesurrounding landscape,thedevelopment has greater capacitytodisrupt existing social,economic,andecologic patterns (Brown 1980,Odum1980).If itissimilarinintensity itismoreeasily integrated into existing patterns. For example, becauseofthedifferences between a heavily urbanized area andanundeveloped wilderness area,theappropriate intensityofdevelopmentineachenvironmentismuchdifferent. Large-scale developmentsandthosewithgreater intensity thanthesurroundings canbeintegrated intothelocaleconomyandenvironment if thereissufficient regionalareatobalance their effects.Muchliketheecological concept of carrying capacity,wherediffering environments require different aerial extent of photosynthetic productionforsupport of a given biomass of animals, environmental carrying capacityforeconomic investments dependsontheareaof"support" overwhicha development can be integrated.Astheintensityofdevelopment increases (and therefore its consumptionofresources, requirementforlaborers,andenvironmental impacts increase),theareaofnatural,undevelopedenvironment requiredforits support must increase.Allother things being equal,themoreintense a development,thegreatertheareaofenvironment necessarytobalanceit.Thus,thespacing between developments should increaseastheir intensity increases.Themethodology describedinthis report usesemergyanalysistomeasure intensityoftwotourist resortsandthelocalenvironment,andthenuses a ratioofpurchasedemergytoresident renewableemergyasameansof determining carrying capacity.Thetheoretical constructandprimary assumptionisthat this ratiois,in itself, a measureoftheintensity ofthelocaleconomy,basedonhowtheenvironmentalandcultural systemsareadaptedtothelevelofeconomicactivity present. Thisiscomplicatedwhenthelocaleconomyisina stateofflux, towhichneithertheecological nor cultural systemshaveadaptedorreached a balanced steady-state. Our rationaleforusingthecurrent regional intensityofeconomicactivity (the Environmental Loading Ratio)isthat,ifanewdevelopmentissignificantly greaterinintensity thanthesurroundings,evenifa balancehas"Intensitymaybe measured usinganyquantity(energy,materials,money,or information) per unittimeperunitarea.Ifoneusesenergyperunittime,orpower,expressedoveraunitarea,theintensityispowerdensity(Brown1980).30-7

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notbeenreached, itmayfurther exacerbatetheexisting problems of culturalandecological integration ofchange.RESULTS Systems Diagrams FigureD-2isa systems diagram of a region thatincludes,amongother activities, tourism. Tourismisshown drawingonresourcesofthelocaleconomyandimporting resourcesfromoutside.Theregionisshownasbeing driven bytwomainsourcesofoutsideemergy:(I)free,renewable emergies,and(2) purchased emergies (sometimes referredtoasnonrenewablesincetheyarebasedonresources thatarenonrenewable). Inflowing renewable emergies combineandinteracttodrivetheproductive processes in ecological systems. Purchased inputsfromoutside develop systems of extractionandconsumption internally,whichinteract with indigenous environmental resourcestoprovide resources, emergiesandproductsforuseandexport.Moneyderivedfromexported resourcesandfromvisiting touristsisusedtopurchasegoodsandfuelsfromotherregIOns.Aswithanytourist facilityortourist region, thereisanimagemaintained bythecombined interaction oftheenvironment, urban structure, culture,andthedevelopment itself. Imageistheinformation that"draws"peoplefromoutsidetovisitthedevelopment.Thegreatertheimage,thegreaterthedraw.Imageisnegatively affected by increased wastesintheenvironment (pollution), overcrowding, andlossofresources, including culture, thatformtheimageof aregionordevelopment.Resourcesareextracted or harvestedfrommarineandterrestrial systemsandsoldtothelocaleconomyortothetourist facility.Moneypaidbytouristsforimported goods, fuels, services,andlocallyderivedresources enters thelocaleconomybefore exitingtheregioninquantities equaltotheinflows.Increased spending by tourists drives inflationupifinflowsoflocalandimported resourcesandfuelsarenot increased. A simplified systems diagram ofthemaindrivingenergiesandinternal processesofa tourist resort facilityisgiveninFigureD-3.Asintheregional diagram (Figure D-2),imageplays a central rolein"attracting" tourists.Theregionalimageisaugmentedbytheattributes oftheresort facility including beach, groundsandlandscaping,andassets (orhotelstructureandfurnishings).Themainproduction functionofthehotel30-8

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TOURISMFigure0.2.Energy systems diagramofa region showingtherelationshipoftourism with thelocaleconomy.Oftentourism is a competitivesystem,competing with thelocaleconomyforgoodsand resources. Dashed lines aremoneyand solid lines are energyflows. "

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provides goods and services for tourists by combining potable water, food and liquor, fuels, electricity, goods and materials, and labor. The assets and tourists are also partofthe production function. Money income from tourists is used to pay for allofthe above goods and services, shown as the dashed lines accompanying each purchased flowofenergy. The diagram in Figure0-3is the diagram from which the emergy analysisoftourism in Papua New Guinea and Mexico (Brown et al. 1992) were performed.EmergyAnalysisofNational Economies Summary statistics and indicesofPapua New Guinea, Mexico and the USA are giveninTable0-1.Total emergy-use(U)varies from a lowof1213 E+20 sej/yr (PNG) to a highof87,570 E+20 sej/yr (USA).Gross national product (GNP) varies by 3 ordersofmagnitude, with PNG having a GNPofonly 0.005%ofthe USA. Probably the most telling relationships are the various ratios (E-I). The relation between emergy and money (sejI$), a measureofrelative buying power, shows that the USA has the lowest ratio. Thus whenUSdollars are used to purchase goods and services from PNG or Mexico, the benefit to the US economy is 18.5 to 1 and about 1.5 to I, respectively. The USA has the highest emergy density --3.6 times thatofPNGand about 2.7 times thatofMexico. Emergy per capita in the USA andPNGare similar, but result from different supporting resources. The main emergies driving the PNG economy are inflowsofrenewable resources (about 85%)ofthe economy while nonrenewable resources are the dominant sourcesofemergyofthe US economy (about 75%). Total emergy-use per capitainthe USA andPNGis nearly equal. The world emergy exchange ratio, which is a relative measureofworld buying power (or trading advantage), shows that the USA has the highest trade advantage; it receives, on the average,1.5unitsofemergy for each unitofemergy exported. Mexico's ratio suggests it receives roughly equal emergy imported for each unit exported;PNGhas, on the average, a net loss receiving only 0.08 unitsofemergy for each unit exported (an average trade deficitof13to I). The highest environmental loading is in the USA; it is 30 times that characteristicofthePNGeconomy.EmergyAnalysisofTourismTables0-2and0-3give the resultsofthe emergy analysisofa small, high quality tourist resort on the islandofNew Britain, PNG, and a "four-star" tourist hotelinPuerto Vallarta, Mexico. The facilities are as different 30-10

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TouristResortFacilityFigure 0-3. Adetailedsystemsdiagramof a touristfacilityshowingthemainproductionfunctionthatprovidesgoodsandseIVicesfromthetouristswhoareattractedbytheresort' simage.Dashedlinesaremoneyandsolidlinesareresourceflows.

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Table D-1. Comparative national Emergy indices for Papua New Guinea, Mexico, andtheUnited StatesRowIndex PNG(I)Mexico (2) USA (3) '(1987)'(1987) '(1983)ATotal Emergy Use (E20 sej/yr) 1213 6955 87570 Renewable Emergy Use (E20 sej/yr) 1050 1386 12355 Nonrenewable Emergy Use (E20 sejlyr) 163 5569 75215BGNP (E9 US $/yr) 2.51853305 C Area (EIO MA2) 46.2 196 940DPopulation(E6people) 3.5 81.1 234EEmergy/money ratio (E12 sej/$) 48 3.8 2.6FEmpower density(Ellsej/mA2*yr) 2.6 3.5 9.3GEmergypercapita (E15 sej/person*yr) 34.7 8.5 37.4HWorld Emergy exchange ratio@ 0.08 1.0 1.5IEnvironmental loading ratio 0.2 4.0 6.1(1) from Doherty (1991)(2)from Brownetal. (1992) (3) from Brown and Arding (1991)'@Emergy trade advantageofcountry based on ratioofworldEMergy/money ratio (3.8 E12 sejl$)tothe EMergy/moneyratio for the country.

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Table0-2.EmergyevaluationoftouristresortonNewBritainIsland,PapuaNewGuineaNoteItemUnitsUnitslYr.TransformitySolarEmergyMacroeconomic(sejlunit)(H15sej/yr)value(1988US$) RENEWABlE RESOURCESISunlightJ1.74E+14I.00E+OO0.173.632WindJ1.l8E+ III.50E+030.183.683RainJ2.4lE+ll1.82E+044.3991.434TidalEnergyJ2.2lE+llI.68E+043.7277.565WaveEnergyJ1.53E+ll3.06E+044.6697.10NONRENEWABLESTORAGES6PotablewaterJ2.93E+096.66E+051.9540.64Sumof free inputs (sun,wind,waves omitted)10.06 209.63 PURCHASEDINPUTSConstructioninputs7WoodJI.64E+093.49E+040.061.198Concreteg1.70E+069.26E+070.163.289Steelg5.100+04I.80E+090.091.9110 Furnishings J3.16E+094.00E+0612.66263.7211Services$2.4OE+044.80E+131,152.0024,000.00Operationalinputs12FuelJ2.28E+126.60E+04150.453,134.4513ElectricityJO.OOE+OO2.00E+050.000.0014FoodJl.25E+132.500+053,113.7564,869.7915LiquorJI.28E+IO6.00E+040.7716.0016Services(PNG)$1.400+054.80E+136,720.00140,000.0017Services(World)$1.4OE+053.600+12504.0010,500.00Sumof purchased inputs 11,14!1.94232,2!1O.34 18Tourists(number)6.20E+023.74E+1623,188.00483,083.33 Poomotes: 1 SunliBb!1.46 E5 callcm'2Iyr (1.46c.llm'2)(40.7 m'2)(70% )(4.1861Ica1)=1.741/yr2 W"Uld 2.9 E61Im'2 (hued onPNG ""....ge) (2.9 E61/m'2)(40.7E3 m"2) =1.2 E111/yr 3 Rain -1.2mIyr(1.2 m)(40.7 E3 m'2j(1000kg/m'3)(4.94 E31/kg) =2.4EII1/yr4 TidaI1.2 ......tidoIrange;.borelength = SOO In; ....... 100 m width (SE4 m'2)(O.S)(730 lideoIyr)(1.2 m)(1.03E3l
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NoIeB to TableD-2 continued 6 Potable water 593 mA3Iyr (593 mA3)(IOOOgImA3)(4.94 E31/g) =2.93 E91/yr 7Wood-544mA3(593 mA3)(5.5 kg/mA3)(15.1E61/kg)= 4.9EIO 1/3Oyr = 1.6 E91/yr 8 Concr
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Table0-3. Emergy evaluationoffourstar touristhotel in PuertoVallarta,MexicoNoteItemUnitsUnitsIYr.TransformitySolarEmergyMacroeconomic(sejlunlt)(E15 sejlyr) Value(\988US$)RENEWABlERESOURCES1 Sunlight J9.14E+13l.OOE+OO0.09242WindJ 1.l0E+ll1.50E+030.16433RainJ 9.3lE+1O l.82E+041.694464 TidalEnergyJ4.18E+09I.68E+040.07195Wave Energy J I.60E+I03.06E+040.49129NONRENEWABlESTORAGES6PotablewaterJ 2.44E+ll6.66E+05162.4342746Sumof free inputs (sun,wind,wavesomitted) 164.20 43210PURCHASEDINPUTSConstructioninputs7 Concreteg1.15E+089.26E+0710.6528028 Steelg2.70E+07l.80E+0948.60127899FurnlshingsJ5.72E+1O4.00E+06228.806021110Services$1.41E+063.80E+125,358.001410000Operational inputs 11FuelJ3.90E+126.60E+04257.406773712Electricity J6.20E+132.00E+0512,400.00326315813FoodJ 8.46E+ll2.00E+061,692.1444530014 liquor J 7.93E+I06.00E+044.76125315Services$1.74E+063.80E+126,593.001735000Sumof purchased inputs 26,593.356998250 16Tourists(number)5.37E+038.500+1545,636.5012009605 FootnoIe8: I Sunlight -1.64 E5caI1cm"2Jyr (1.64E9callm A 2XI9.03E3 mA2)(70% X4.186J/cal) =9.14E13J/yr 2 W'Uld 5.8E6J/mA2 (balOd on Mexicoaverage) (5.8 E6J/m'2XI9.03E3 m A 2) =1.1EllJ/yr 3 Rain 0.99 mIyr (0.99mXI9.03E3 mA2XlOOOkgImA3X4.94 E3 JIkg) =9.31EIOJ/yr 4 Tidal1.0 ......tidalnnge;shoceIqth= ll3.5m;a.. ume 100m width (1135m A2XO.5)(730 tidellyrXI.OmXl.03E3kg1mA3)(9.SmI.A2) = 4.18E9J/yr 5Wav..shocelength =113.5 m;wave"""'llY =3.36E7cal/m/yr(113.SmX3.36E7calimlyrX4.186 J/ca1) =1.6EIOJ/yr6 Potablewater49,287mA3Iyr(4.93E4mA 3Xlooo,/mA3X4.94 E3Jig)= 2.44EllJIyr3DIS

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Noteo toTable 0-3contdlued 7 Conaete 5736tomlll(baaed onav ...geconcreteIroom)(5.7361l6kt<)(1000gikg) = 5.736E9g/SOyn = 1.15 E8 gIyr 8Steel1356 to ...(basedon av ...geateellroom) 1.3S61l6kg)(IOOOg/1q() = 1.356 E9g/SOyn =2.7 E7g 9 Fumiahing. -240 kgIroom, plua5000 kt< miac fumiahinga (eatimale)= 43400kt< (43.41l6 g)(90',l;drywt)(35OOca11g)(4.186Jlca1)1IOyeara5.72 EIO J10 Sc
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as their total emergy flows indicate. ThePNGresort is hand-built from local materials (wood and thatching), purchases fuel to generate its own electricity, burns coconut shells for hot water, andhas 12 guest rooms serving a totalofabout 3924 person-days per year. The Mexican hotel is built almost entirelyofconcrete and steel, purchases electricity, has 160 rooms,andserves a totalof37,584person days per year. Renewable and nonrenewable emergy inputs for the two tourist systems reflect the differences in intensity.Byfar the most significant non-purchased emergy flow in the Mexican resort is potable water use (nearly 99%ofthe total), while the largest flows in thePNGresort are from rain and tides. Potable water useatthe PNG resort is quite small (about 228 liters/person/day) as comparedtothe Mexican resort (1311 Uperson/day). Since there is no purchased electricity in the PNG resort, the emergyoffuels and electricity are added together for comparison between the PNG and Mexican resorts. Probably the most telling, with respect to intensityofdevelopment, is that the Mexican resort uses more than 110 times the amountoffuels and electricity as the PNG resort, yet has less than 10 times the numberofguests. Food and liquor consumption reflect the differences in the numberoftourists served by the two resorts. Totalpurchased inputs are similar for eachofthe resorts, considering the differences in size. While the total is similar, the sourceofthe largest inputs is quite different. The greatest emergy input in the Mexican resort is electricity (over50%ofthe total), while the greatest in the PNG resort is the purchaseofservices from the local and world economies (added together they amount to over 50%ofthe total purchased emergy).EmergyIndicesofTheTouristResortsTable D-4 contains summary statisticsofthetwo resorts, and the economiesofPapua New Guinea and Mexico, for comparison. Since the spatial areaofeach resort is relatively small, the percentoftotal emergy flows from renewable and nonrenewable emergy (rows 2 and 3 in Table D-4) are small in comparison with the national economies. When only the land area occupied by the resort is used, the intensityofdevelopmentofboth resorts is 3 to 4 ordersofmagnitude greater than the average for their respective economies. Per capita emergy flows are from 6 (PNG resort) to 22 times (Mexican resort) that which is characteristicofthe national economies.30-17

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Table 0.4. ComparativeEmergyindicesfortouristresortsinPapuaNewGuineaandMexicoIndexTotalEmergyUse(E18sejlyr)PercentRenewable % renewable+nonrenewablestorageEmpowerdensity(EllsejlmA2*yr)Emergyper capita(E15sejfperson*yr)EnvironmentalloadingratioSupportArearequired(mA2)PNOMexicoCountryResortCountryResort12160011.269550026.886.4%0.1%19.9%0.0%95.5%0.1%52.6%0.6%2.62741.83.514056.834.7178.58.5259.80.16194.18.912189.55.66E+074.17E+073D-18

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Using the actual area occupied by each resort, the Environmental Loading Ratios (ELR) vary from 8 times (Mexican resort) to 4 times (PNG resort) the environmental loading characteristicofthe national economy. Using the ELRs, the support areas were calculated as 156kIn'and 117kIn'for the PNG and Mexican resorts, respectively. In other words, to balance and reduce the ELRofeach resort to thatofthe national economy, 156kIn'are required for thePNGresort andIIIkIn'for the Mexican resort. Once the support area is known, the Investment Ratio (IR) is determined. The IRs show higher investments per unitofresident emergy flow than is characteristicofthe national economies (10 times the national average for the PNG resort and 9 times the national average for the Mexican resort).EmergyExchangeofTourismThe emergy exchangeofthePNGand Mexican resort developments are illustrated in Figure D-4. An exchangeofemergy is shown flowing countercurrent to the dollar exchange between the two economies. In both examples, the tourists are assumed to be 100% from the USA; while this is not necessarily accurate, it serves to make our point.Inthe top diagram, the PNG resort receives $2.8 E+5/yr as income, for whichitprovides 11.2E+18sej/yr in goods and services to the tourists (this is the emergy that is consumed by the resort in direct supportofthe tourists). The Mexican resort receives $3.2 E+6/yr and provides 23.0 E+18 sej/yr in goods and services. When the income from tourists is eventually spent for import purchases from the USA, the amountofemergy received (on average) is determined by multiplying the money spent by the emergy/money index for the USA economy. The calculated emergy valuesofimported goods and services is 4.5E+17 sej/yr (PNG) and 5.0E+l8sej/yr (Mexico). The trade advantage for the USA in both these examples is calculated by dividing what is received by the USA by what is exported. The USA trade advantage overPNGis 16 toI,and over Mexicoitis 1.4 to1.In other words, for every unitofemergy that is sold to PNG and Mexico using money these countries received from USA tourists, the USA economy receives, on the average, 16 units and 1.4 unitsofvalue, respectively, from PNG and Mexico.All international transactions are subject to these relative values (Emergy/$). As we have shown, this ratio exists for all transactions irrespectiveofwhether they are tourism,forestryorfisheries.30-19

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U.S.A.Received(2.8E6$/yr)--------PNGResortServices&Goods=11.16E18seJI r '...SoldtoTouristsYU.S.A.TradeAdvantage=25/1MexicoResortDOllars Received{3.l6E6 $fIr!... ----------U.S.A.Services&Goods=22.98E18sej/yr '---__ .... SoldtoTouristsU.S.A.TradeAdvantage=4.6/1FigureD-4.Overview diagrams illustratingtheUSAtrade advantagewhentourists spendmoneyinPapuaNewGuinea (top)andMexico(boltom).Thetrade advantageiscalculated assuming thatalltourist currencyisusedtopurchasegoodsandservicesfromtheUSAeconomy.30-20

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Another wayoflooking at value received is thatanAmerican tourist receives about16times the emergy for each dollar spent inPNGat this tourist resort thanifit were spent in the USA economy. The advantage in Mexico is smaller, receiving only 1.4 times the emergy. DISCUSSIONCarryingCapacityforTouristResortsThe support area calculated using the ELR for eachofthe tourist developments in this study reflects the area necessary to reduce their environmental loading to that which is characteristicofthe national economy.Inessence, the support area provides the carrying capacityofthe environment to absorb the resort itself, and possibly more developmentsofa similar type (i.e.,ofsimilar size and emergy intensity).Ifthe size and/or intensityofa development changes, the support region will also change since its determination is based on these factors. In this way the determinationofcarrying capacity using the ELR achieves a dynamic balance that is affected not only by the environment's ability to absorb the development, but by the size and intensityofthedevelopment itself. To illustrate this point, suppose the PNG resort was built in Mexico, and the Mexican resort built in PNG. Much different support area requirements result becauseofthe differences in each economy and the intensityofeach development.IfthePNGresort were constructedinMexico, its support area would need to be only33lan'as compared to the 117lan'required by the Mexican resort. Andifthe Mexican resort were constructed in PNG, it would require a support areaof547Ian'.Comparison between the two resorts and their required support areas can be expressed relative to their physical size and the average numberoftourists served per day. These may be more familiar waysofexpressing canying capacity. Assuming that emergy use per tourist and per resort room does not change appreciably as the sizeofthe facility is varied, these measures could be used to determine, relatively quickly, the support area required for a given resort size. ThePNGresort had12rooms and served 3924 person days per year (or an averageofaboutIItourists per day), while the Mexican resort had 160 rooms and served 37,584 person days per year (103 tourists per day). Using the support area for each resort (156lan'in PNG and 117lan'inMexico) the numberofrooms and average densityoftourists can be determined. InPNGthe30-21

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support area per room was13km2/room, and the average daily numberoftourists per square kilometerofsupport area was 0.07 touristslkm2The support area per room in Mexico was 0.73km2/room and the average daily numberoftourists per unit support area was about 0.9 touristslkm2 InternationalTradeandTouristResortsEmergy as a measureofvalue, offers interesting perspectives on issuesofnational wealth and economic well being. International development has become an important economic activity as accumulated currencyindeveloped economies is invested in undeveloped economies to achieve high returns on investment. The resources and environmentofany country, whether developedornot, represent its wealth (Odum 1984). When money is invested in developing economies, the principle reason is to extract resources (i.e., wealth) and sell them for more money than they cost to extract. Thus, the activity results in the exportationofnational wealth and the inflowofcurrency. Since currency cannot accumulate for long, but must be spent, it is used to purchase fuels, goods, and services from the developed world. Most often the goods purchased do not equal in unitsofwealth (emergy) that whichisexported.Inother words, a developing economy that sells raw resources and imports finished goods from a developed economy supports the outside economy at the expenseofits own. In a recent analysisofthe shrimp fishery in the SeaofCortez, Mexico (Brown et al. 1990),itwas found that the consequencesofan expanded mechanized fishing fleet and international sales were to raise the priceofshrimp beyond local purchasing power (thus eliminating their consumption by local populations) and exportationof1.4 times more emergy than was purchased with the currency from the sale. The consequencesofinternational tourism on trade balance is often seen only as beneficial to undeveloped economies sinceitseems to be a non-extractive sourceofmuch needed foreign currency. What is often overlooked is the environmental support required and resources consumed to provide the goods and services for an expanded populationofvisitors.Inessence, the resources that are consumed in supportofa tourist population are "extracted" and exported with each tourist and therefore not available for consumption by the local population. In return, the local economy receives a currency income with which they purchase goods from the international market place. Evaluating tourism's economic impact by measuring only the currency input misses this important consequence. The money spent by each tourist purchases local goods and resources and environmental support (for instance, a portionofthe local estuary that cannot be used by the local population for sewage disposal or fish harvest because it is being used for waste disposalofthe tourist facility). When these are expressed in their emergy equivalent and compared with the emergy that is30-22

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imported, as was done in this study, more wealth is used and exported than is imported, basedonthe assumption that 100%oftourists are from the U.S.InPNG, the ratioofemergy exported to that received was18to 1 and in Mexico it was 1.4 to1.This assumes that all tourists originated in the USA. In reality, tourists come from many different countries, each having a different emergy currency ratio. Thus the aggregate ratioofemergy exportedtothat received could be significantly different. For instance, at thePNGresort, about 40%ofthe visitors originated from within the country, and the balance came from many different countries. To determine the aggregate emergy balanceofpayments would require calculating currency ratios for eachofthe home countries. While this was beyond the scopeofour analysis, we can say that the aggregate ratio for thePNGresort, insteadofbeing18/1,would be somewhat lower,onthe strength that 40%ofthe tourists visiting the resort were from PNG. While we have not analyzed tourism in other developing nations, our analysesofother development projects (Odum and Arding 1991, Odum etaJ.1986) suggests that oneofthe main driving forces behind all international trade and tourism is the fact that developed countries benefit greatly through an uneven emergy exchange.Inspiteofthe fact that tourism does have extractive aspects, ecotourism in particular is certainly less harmful than most other activities in which resources are exploited for international exchange. The tourist facility analyzed inPNGwasa unique facility that stroveto be environmentally benign, economically integrated into the local economy, and socially acceptable. To be sure, the facility was well designed and thought out. Local materials and renewable energies were used wherever possible (for instance water was heated using coconut shells from a nearby coconut plantation), local sourcesoffoods and labor were favored over importing, and in general it was oneofthe most ecologically sensitive tourist developments we have seen. Our analysis in no way should suggest that this development was insensitive to the ecology, economyorcultureofPNG.Itwas very well done. Our analysis, especially as it relates to international trade, does point out, however, that no matterhow sensitive a development, tourism is an extractive industry albeit far less destructiveofenvironmental and cultural resources than the extractionofmineralsorforestry products for instance. Spatial RelationshipsofResortsandSupportAreas Therearenumerous ways that resorts and support areas might be organized spatially and yet maintain a balanced Environmental Loading Ratio.Incoastal regions, muchofthe new tourist developmentiswithin the coastal zone to take advantageofthe interfaceofmarine and terrestrial environments and the diversity3D-23

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TouristResort EZ21 SupportArea Tourist Resort SupportArea Tourist Resort EZZI Support AreaLandFigureD-5.Schematic diagrams of a coastlineshowingalternatewaysofgrouping tourist resortswithintheir support regionssoasnottoexceedeconomiccarryingcapacity.Inthetopdiagram, resortsarespaced basedonthesizeoftherequired support region;andinthebottom diagram, resortsareclusteredleavingtheremainingsupportregionundeveloped.3D-24

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that results. Figure D-5 illustrates three different concepts for a groupofresort complexes in a coastal rone. Since the environmental basisofcoastal regionsisa blendofboth marine and terrestrial productivity, the support regions (hatched areas) are composedofbothofthese environments.Inthe top illustration resort developments are spaced along the coast, each surrounded by their appropriate support region.Inthe middle illustration, the same number and size developments are clustered in one area and surrounded by a support region equal to the sumofthe individual areas. To maintain a balanced ELR, further development within the support areas would be restricted. The bottom illustration shows a spatial arrangement where the support region does not surround the resorts, but is located elsewhere within the region.Inmany cases, this arrangement may be more attractive as a meansofsetting aside ecological reservesorimportant wetland ecosystems. We have considered only the tourist resort in our analysis and in the above illustrationsofspatial arrangements.Insome developing regions, where the regional economy is already relatively intense, resort development also brings infrastructure development and urban expansion resulting from increased populations. We believe that this method for determining carrying capacity and support areas could apply in these circumstances as well,ifthe infrastructure and increased urban developments were factored into the calculations. Often feasibility studies for new developments determine infrastructure requirements and urban expansion that will result from the development. These data could provide the basis foranexpanded evaluationofcarrying capacity that included secondary development. SustainabilityofDevelopment Projects Economic development in the developing nations seemstobe increasing in rate and magnitude as developed countries seek higher returns on investment than are characteristicoftheir internal economies. The result is increased ratesofchange in environmental, cultural, and economic system. With it, an awareness has recently developed that sustainability is a key factor to consider when analyzing potential impactsofproposed projects. Yet sustainability remains an elusive concept.Itcan be argued that sustainable development, in the long run (100 yearsormore?), is that which can be supported by the renewable flowsofemergyofa region. Development that depends on purchased resources is ultimately not sustainable, since purchased emergy is composedofnonrenewable flows and fluctuations in world prices. Yet, development that does not allow for the possibilityofusing purchased resources to amplify a region's environmental basis cannot give an3D-25

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economic return and becomes a moot point. Thus, sustainability should reflect the current intensityofdevelopmentofaneconomy and match it.Inthis way,itisnomore dependent on limited suppliesofnonrenewable emergies than is the economy as a whole. As the economy's useofnonrenewable purchased energies may decline, new development under these circumstances does not draw moreofthese energiesonthe average than the rest. To put it another way, what is sustainableinthe USA is much different from what is sustainable in Papua New Guinea. Determinationsofsustainability should take into account: (1) the relative mixofaneconomy's environmental basis (renewable emergy sources), (2) its useofnonrenewable storages from within, and (3) its purchased goods, resources, and services. These flows drive the economy and ultimately influence what is sustainable, by defininganupper boundarytothe present mixofpurchased emergy, resources from within, and renewable emergy flows. The Investment Ratio described in this report is a ratioofpurchased emergy to resident emergy and, when the ratiosofdevelopment proposals are comparedtothe ratio for the economyinwhich they are imbedded, may provide one meansofdefining sustainability. Development proposals that have IRs that are higher than the economy require more purchased emergy per unitofresident emergy, and therefore are more vulnerable, on the average, to changesinavailabilityofpurchased emergy. Developments with lower IRs than the local economy are less vulnerable, but also yield less,onaverage.Ifthese support areas could remain undeveloped, eachofthe resorts can potentially use more resident emergy and, as a consequence, be less vulnerabletooutside economic fluctuations. Where economic development results in extraction and saleofresourcestoforeign economies, sustainability may be related to the trade advantage or emergy exchange that results.Ifmore wealth leaves the local economy than is received in exchange, the development is probably not sustainable. Balancing the exchangeofwealth between that which is exported and that whichisimported may leadtomore sustainable developments.Inthe caseofthe tourist developmentsinPNGand Mexico that were analyzed, more wealth left both economies "embodied"invisitors than was received when the income derived from them was used to purchase foreign goods and services. In other words, tourists and the nation from which they came gained more emergy than the nation they visited.Inthe caseofPNG, the advantage for the USA resulting from one tourist's visit was 25to1, whileinthe Mexican resort the advantage to the USA3D-26

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economy was4.6to I; more total wealth left eachofthe economiesembodiedintourists than was purchased from foreign economies with the tourist-derived income. The useofemergy flows as a meansofevaluating costs and benefitsofeconomic investments and the carrying capacityofregional economies may lend insight into the complex questions surrounding the increased integrationofnational economies on a global scale and whether such developments are beneficial and sustainableinthe long run. The proposed methodsofquantitative evaluation are tendered more as a meansofhelping guide public policy decisions than as the means to answer, once and for all, the questions surrounding soundnessofeconomic policy that fosters economic investments in developing nations.3D-27

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Section E: Energy, Time and Economic Expectations in a Highlands Villageby G.A. Smith,SJ.Doherty and M.T. BrownINTRODUCfIONEnergy, time and economic expectations are basic concepts which are interrelated. Individuals and communities have a given amountofresources and a fixed amountoftime with which they canuse to meet their economic expectations. These expectations here are broadly defined as 'needed and/or hoped-for commodities and services.' Generally, the available formsofincident energy including sun, rain and land resources have to be transformed by plants, animals or technology before they are directly useful to humans. This processofenergy transformation includes land clearing, crop cultivation, harvesting and food preparation, as well as building construction and developmentofother commodities. Both rural and industrial societies require basic transformations, althoughindiffering degrees. This manipulationofprimary resources into upgraded goods and services is called production and consumes greater amountsofconcentrated formsofenergy as societies become industrialized. A common observation in modem times is that past generationsofpeople seemed to have more time to visit and relax -more free time -than people today. Modem middle class Americans, for example, live in the midstofmore time-saving devices than their ancestorsorpeople in other partsofthe world, yet their lives do not necessarily seem to be any less hurried as a result. One would think that with all these labor and time saving technologies now available, technology would reduce the amountoftime spent working and humans wouldbeafforded greater leisure.Ifanything, the opposite seems to be true (this is described by Staffan Linder inThe Harried Leisure Class).Oras John Stuart Mills once noted, there was never a labor-saving device invented that saved anybody a minute's labor. In order to address these observations, this section will focus on time budgets and economic expectationsofa typical highlands village in Papua New Guinea as it moved from a subsistence level to a more industrialized setting. Systems diagrams illustrate the differences between a typical family unit in a highlands village prior to World War II (FigureE-I)and a modem, industrialized family unit (Figure E-2). Village life in 1930 was subsistence-based, generally sustainable and self-sufficient.3E-l

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HighlandsPre-IndustrialFamilyUnitPapuaNewGuineac.1930FigureE-l.Systemsdiagramofa village family unit in the highlandsofPapua New Guinea, circa 1930 priortoindustrialization.

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RiverGoods&Services "'SoliGov'tWorkTAX .-.. Information -/]My'h&{InfoHighlands-ModernFamilyUnit.PapuaNewGuineac.1980FigureE-2.Systems diagramofa modemfamilyunitinthe highlandsofPapuaNewGuinea. circa1980.

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There was little contact with other populations since mostofthe resources needed to support lifestyles were came directly from the environment. Gardens were rotated in fallow systems, resources were drawn directly from secondary growth forests and grasslands. Pigs supplied essential proteins and recycled unused garden wastes. Trade was generally for ceremonial purposes. In modern villages, an increasing portionofenvironmental support emergy is consumed by cash crops. Forests and minerals are extracted without use and sold as raw materials to foreign markets. There is an increase in exports, imports, financial aid and government work. With greater ties to outside markets, there is less emphasis on subsistence farming and more basic resources such as food and building materials are purchased from external markets. Time budgets are generated for three different years: 1933, 1953 and 1976. A time budget for an average worker in the U.S.A. circa 1975 is also constructed for comparison.Inthe short courseofa person's lifetime, PapuaNewGuinea nationals have seen their lifestyles change from subsistence-based communities with little connection to external markets to more "modern" lifestyles, greatly affected by industrialization and global markets. Here, "modern" is not used to elicit connotationsofbetterment or wealth, but instead is simply a reference to current conditionsofmodern society. Real wealth, as measured by solar emergy available to do useful work for the combined ecologic-economic system, is discussed in the national overview (Section A) and again as the support basis for agro-forest production sectors (SectionB),tourism (Section D) and indigenous culture (Section F) in this report. The questionsofwhetherornot these momentous changes during the past century have affected a villager's allocationoftime spent in work and leisure or their economic expectations are addressed.RESULTSDaily Activities Time spent in varying activities were monitored by Salisbury (1962) in a highland village during 1953. In addition, the authorassembled time schedules for villagers before contact with western civilization in 1933 by questioning the village elders. From this data, time budgets for nine workinghours during the day were constructed for 1933 and 1953. Data from a 1975 studyofdaily schedules for highland villagers (Grossman 1984) was used to construct time budgets for typical adult workers living in more modern times. Finally, a study by (Hill 1985) was used to assemble activity schedulesofa typical American worker in order to draw3E-4

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comparisons with an industrialized economy. Lea (1970) cautions that many activities are seasonal so that studies over many years are required to produce meaningful data. With this in mind, we draw some general conclusions regarding how activity schedules have changed from 1930's to the mid 70's with the introductionoftechnologies, fossil fuels, and western influence and information. In 1933, a little over 7 hours per day were spent at the work site (TableE-l),though allofthose hours were not spent directly working any more than Americans work the entire time they are at a work place.By1953, the amountoftime spent working for village men was reduced by 40% (32 hrs/wk compared with 50 hrs/wk in 1933). At least partial explanation is that by the mid 50's muchofthe traditional workofvillagemen-clearing forests for gardens, building fences and housing --had been eased due to the introductionofsteel axes, replacing traditional stone tools. The steel axes did not, however, seem to reduce the women's work load. This introductionofsteel axes occurred rapidly but was unaccompanied by other technologies, ideasorvaluesdue to WorldWarII which kept the industrialized nations, particularly Japan and Australia, occupied with other concerns than the exploration and colonizationofthe highlandsofPapua New Guinea. However, the 1950's, 60's and 70's were a time when at least the ideasofmodern civilization advanced rapidly in the highlands through road construction, truck transportation and the transistor radio. By 1975, previously subsistence-based communities and family units begantodevote a portionoftheir labor, time and land resourcestoproducing items for sale to outside markets -generally coffee and cattle. Table E-2 compares life in Papua New Guinea during this period oftechnological change and western influence to past yearsofsubsistence and relative isolation. Activities for a 24 hour-day (168 hours/week) were divided into 5 categories:I)work -which includes all work for income as well as any activity which is done to provide one's self, familyorcommunity with food, shelterorother useful commodities; 2) childcare; 3) personal care -this includes sleeping and eating as well as grooming and washing; 4) ceremonies, religiousoreducational activities; and 5) leisureor'free' time.3E-5

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Table E-1. Time budgets for nine-hour work days (63hrwork-wk) for highlands villagersinPapua New Guineain1933 and 1953 (data compiled from Salisbury 1962).Meantimeallocation(hours/person/week)in1933 in 1953ActivitymenwomenaveragemenwomenaverageGeneral:a at home sick 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.36.3 6.3 b leisure, visiting 1.9 3.2 2.5 3.8 3.2 3.5 c total Ceremonial: c religious 4.4 1.9 8.8 1.9 d courts 00 2.5 0 total 4.4 1.9 3.2 11.3 1.9 6.6 Subsistencework:e clan work 34.7 13.9 f lineage work 15.1 10.I g home crafts 0.6 7.6 total (for men) 50.4 31.5 h traveling to gardens and tending pigs 12.9 12.9 garden work 12.9 12.9Jharvesting crops 12.9 12.9 k cooking and crafts 12.9 12.9 total (for women) 51.751.4 51.7 41.6Introducedactivities:Igovernment work 00 6.3 0 m missionary work 00 1.9 0 n football 00 2.5 0 total: 00 10.7 0 5.43E-6

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Table E-2. Sununaryoftimebudgets for a 168 hour-weeki) for Papua New Guinea in 1933, 1953, 1975 and for the U.S.A. in 1975. Activity 1933 Papua New Guinea 1953 1975 U.S.A. 1975 Work 51.2 45.0 44.8 46.0 Childcare 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.6 Personal care 67.0 67.0 67.6 76.9 Ceremonies, education 3.2 7.5 7.5 4.5 Leisure 43.1 45.0 44.6 38.0I)PNGdata compiled from Salisbury (1962) and Grossman (1984). Data for U.S. from Hill (1985).Although the data set is small and synthesized from unrelated studies, a conclusion drawn here would be that there is great similarity between daily activities for both cultures (PNG and USA), and that allocationoftimeand responsibilities has not been greatly affected by changes in technology and infonnation over the courseofalmost half a century. Though there are some differences in time spent in different activities, the differences are not major and may be artifactsofsurveying techniques and differing interpretationsofpersonal care and leisure. Some differences are noteworthy. It appears that the amountoftime villagers spent working had been reduced by about 13% from 5 Ihrs/wk in 1933 to around 45 hrs/wk in modem times (Table E-2). This savingsofalmost 6 hrs/wk had been reallocated into ceremonies and education which has increased from around 3 hrs/wk in 1933 to over 7 hrs/wk in 1975. Leisure time also appears to have increased possibly an hourortwo per week for PNG nationals. In the U.S. in 1975, about the same amountoftimewas spent working as in Papua New Guinea, yet more time was spent in personal care, less in education and ceremonies, and there was generally less time for leisure activities (38 hrs/wk for U.S. workers compared with 45 hrs/wk forPNGworkers). In a very rough sense however, in either cultures, pastorpresent, people spend about a thirdoftheir time working, a little more than a third in personal care, and a little less than a thirdoftheir time in other activities such as cultural and religious ceremonies, education, child care and leisure.3E-7

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EconomicExpectationsWealth has been variously defined as an abundanceofmaterial possessionsorresources, but more generally understood as a measureofwell-being. In this report, wealth is measured as available and useful resources, all expressed in common unitsofsolar emergy so they maybe"added up" expressing contributions relative from one sourcetoanother. As expressed by Sahlins (1972,p.37) in his bookStone AgeEconomics;"the world's most [primitive] people have few possessions, but they are not poor. Poverty is not a certain small amountofgoods, nor isitjusta relation between means and ends; above all it is a relation between people." For villagers in pre-World War II Papua New Guinea, although personal possessions were small,total resources available for the common good were large. Villages were relatively small [80-200 people (Bell 1984)], un-monied and self-sufficient, and therefore with little exchange with other villages. Land and resources were held in commons and decisions as to which land to take outoffallow andputinto garden cultivation were discussed by the married menofthe community. After consensus was reached, men would take responsibility for land clearing. The communal garden would be subdivided into smaller plots for individual women who were responsible for planting, tending the garden, harvesting and food preparation. The food was then shared by all villagers. There appeared to be little incentive to acquire individual wealth. Estimates for food consumption for typical village adults in 1953 is given in Table E-3. This dietofalmost 3000 kcal/day was at least sufficient to meet daily nutritional needs, and as reported in several ethnographic studies, the problemoffood production and distribution was largely solved in Papua New Guineaatthe time (although essential proteins were not always obtained). Thus, there was no need or possibilityofindividual acquisitionoflandresources or food items. 3E-8

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Table E-3. A typical daily diet for an adult Papua New Guinea highland villager circa 1953 (from Salisbury 1962). Food item sweet potatomaizetaro green vegetables cucumber sugarcane pork Bulk weight (lbs/adult/day) 4.20 0.25 0.33 0.87 0.66 2.20 0.17 Energy content (kcalladult/day) 1890 10513590 31 305 317 total: 2927 kcallperson/day Non-subsistence items were few and could be divided into 2 categories: ceremonial items and luxuries. Ceremonial items were symbolically traded at public events and between villages. Pigs were the main ceremonial goods; others included necklaces, cowry shells and plume feathers from the bird-of-paradise. These items were not usually gained by labor but rather exchanged in a ritual manner at events such as weddings, funerals and initiations into adulthood. Respect was earned not through owning these possessions but rather giving them to others. Luxury itemsin1933-53 generally consistedofthe following: tobacco, palm oil forwashing, pandanus nuts, drums, sharpening stones, and palm wood for spears. Again, however, there was not much differentiation in amounts ownedoftheseitems. Such luxuries were useful to the extent that an individual could use them. Qualityoflife was in no way enhanced by possessionoflarge numbersofthese goods, so that villagers saw no advantages in owning anything more than could be immediately and directly used. In conclusion, economic expectations were few and constrained and generally were met for indigenous peopleofPapua New Guinea prior to World WarII.As the country was increasingly drawn into modern times, personal ownership became more important. Money and goodswere in such demand that "cargo cults" started in which members would try to emulate their understandingofwestern "production." Money was created by mysterious machines and money could buy anything. Possessions became valuable regardlessofutility. Cult leaders would tell curious villagers how, by mimicking the white man's ways, they too could3E-9

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become rich in material goodsorwealth (Kirk 1973). Government officials discouraged activitiesofcargo cultists since cult members often abandoned normal occupations in their mystic strivings after cargo. Although cargo cults are no longer common, there is still concern within government that an increasing numberofyouths are abandoning rural lifestyles and skills for a chance at a "richer life" in port cities and urban centers.DISCUSSIONVillagersofthe 1930's and 1950's did not have the machines and tools available to them as modem people have today, yet their working hours were only slightly higher (51 hrs/wk in 1933 compared with about 45 hrs/wk in 1975 for both PNG and USA). Although the reasons for this are complex, a few observations help explain the discrepancy between technological advancement and corresponding reductionsofworker-related activities. First, although modem machines are productive, many hours and resources are required for invention, testing, construction, transportation and maintenanceofthe technologies. Education is also time and resource consumptive and is required with modem industrialization. Secondly, in modem times, people have a greater amountofcommodities available to them, each requiring time and resources that could otherwise be used in other activities. An example is in the U.S., where so much time is spent watching television, and where an essential partoftelevision is commercial advertizing, the objectiveofwhich is to promote desires for things. Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, an increasing numberofhoursinmodem times are devoted to work which the environment does freeofcharge in the highlandsofPapua New Guinea. For example, in the important areaofgardening, the fallow method has historically been used to re-build soil fertility. In this method garden plots are left abandoned for about15years, allowing for regrowth from the surrounding matrixofforested areas in order to re-nourish topsoil depletedoforganic matter, humus and essential nutrients.Nohuman effort is spent through fertilizers or pest control. Instead, these tasks are performed by the ecological support base that such a fallow system requires. Another example is waste control. Due both to a lackofsynthetic and inorganic products foreign to the environment and becauseofthe sizeofthe environment in relation to the population, waste disposalisa simple matter. As Salisbury (1962,p.83) noted, "the bush is large and requires fertilizing."3E-1O

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Although today cargo cults are uncommon, economic expectations have grown. There are numerous storiesofindividuals and communities trading land, timber and mineral rights for material possessions such as trucks and televisions even though there was little use for such commodities and perhaps no fuels available to even use them. With the expansionoflocal economies, there is a growing influence from foreign markets. Increasingly the ecological support baseofvillage enterprises is being soldortraded for promisesofmaterial wealth, schools, road construction and other infrastructure. While mostofthese agreements with foreign owned and operated companies have been met, there is generally no provisions made for maintenance and operating costsofthe facilities set in place. Saulei (per. comm. 1990) reiterated this point with regard to the Forest Research Institute in Lae -a facility donated by Japanese forestry operations but with no additional supporttooperate the stationorhire adequate research staff. These observations are substantiated through the analysesofsolar emergy support for production sectors in Papua New Guinea in other sectionsofthisreport. As stated earlier, the solar emergy per capita is very large for Papua New Guinea nationals compared with other countriesofthe world, especially more industrialized nations(Table A-3, item 16). Further, as evidenced in Section B, the large net yields delivered from production systems such as forestry, sago palm cultivation and sweet potato farming, are due to the large ecological support base delivering constant, renewable sourcesofsolar emergy as the basis for production. This is also demonstrated with tourism (Section D). One consequenceofindustrialization appears to be an increasing extemalizationoflocal economies, with increasing dependence on purchased, upgraded fuels. Technology and fossil fuels support increased production, however often at the expenseoflocal resources that are unaccounted for in market decisions. And because there is greater reliance on purchased goods and services, economies experience lower net yields for production sectors. Papua New Guinea's self-sufficiency may be a costofeconomic expansion, especiallyifenvironmental contributions continue to go unrecognized.3E-ll

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Section F: Perspectives on Emergy SupportofIndigenous CulturebyH.T.OdumandS.J.DohertyBecausePapuaNewGuinearemainedinrelative isolationuntilthelastcenturyfromdevelopmentactivities occurringinmost other countriesoftheworld,it presents itselfasacasehistoryofcultural evolution based ahnost entirelyonresidentsourcesofrenewable,environmentalenergies.Asa preliminary effort to investigate theemergybasisofgeneticandculturalinformation,weusedtherenewableemergyflowsdeterminedfromthis studyastheannualcontribution supportingindigenouspopulationsduringtheir isolated past.Demographicdatawasdrawnfromthe literatureandestimatesofdeliverytimerequirementsforgeneticevolutionandcultural informationweremade.Together,thisdatawasusedtoinvestigate the solaremergybasis for information storagesinindigenousculturesof PapuaNewGuinea.INTRODUCfIONInheritanceofgenetic informationisthe primarymechanismthatecosystemsandspeciescan storeandcopyinformation.Whenanecosystemhasdevelopedafunctioningsetofspeciesthrough self-organizationofavailableseeds,geneticstocksandimmigrants, this integrated setofreproductives constitutes apackageofinformation that can restore itselfafterdisturbancesmuchmorerapidly thanoccurredthe first time.A premiseweexplore here is that theemergyrequirementsformaintenanceofgeneticstocksandorderedsystemsareappreciablylessthantheemergyoforiginationorevolution.Inadditiontothe inheritedgeneticinformation,humansaswellasother socialorganismshavethe capacitytodevelopanduselearnedinformationindividuallyandinsocialorganizationwithitsgroup.Wedefmethelearnedinformationofsocietyasculture.Theabilitytolearnandtobesociallyorganized(amongother reasons) causeshumanstobecomedominantmechanismsofecosystemtransformations.Thisemergingeconomyofnatureandsocietynowinprogressre-organizessystem resources,acceleratesenergytransformationsanddevelopsnewprocessesandstorages thatwouldnot exist withoutlearnedandshared culturalinformation.Througheducationandrolesinsocialhierarchies,humanbeingscanutilize awiderangeofresident solaremergysourcesfromtheirlocalenvironmentaswellasoutsideresourcesobtained throughexchangewith other socialgroupsandnations.Anotherthesis investigatedhereisthathuman3F-1

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society, as infonnation processors, is at the topofthe hierarchyofthe ecological life support system. Hence, the emergyofa system such as Papua New Guinea converges in supportofthe culture. Human infonnation was considered here to have evolved and been stored in two fonns: I) shared, cultural infonnation and 2) genetic infonnation. These infonnation fluxes are shown in Figure F-I,supported by the landscape. Shown is genetic inheritance, the shared infonnationofculture through customs and objects, and the important interchangeofinfonnation with the ecosystem. Exchangeofgoods and services with outside systems is also represented. This includes immigration and emigrationofpeople.Inthis preliminary study, we investigated the solar emergy supporting: I) cultural and 2) genetic infonnationofPNGnationals. For eachofthese information fonns, 2 categoriesofsolar emergy were investigated: I) the emergy necessary to maintain the infonnation and 2) the emergy required to generate the infonnation in the first place. The solar emergy supporting annual infonnation fluxes and long tenn steady state storages was considered to be the annual renewable resource base [R] for Papua New Guineaof1050E+20 sej/yr (Table A-2), assuming this representativeofpast years. Data on daily human metabolism, life expectancies, reproductive ageoffemales, generation turnover time, and village hours spent on cultural and social activities were derived from the literature. From this infonnation perspectives on emergy support for infonnation creation and maintenanceofindigenous peopleofPapua New Guinea are drawn for overview.RESULTSA numberofsolar transfonnities are given in TableF-Iin order to draw comparisons between genetic and learned infonnation fluxes and storages. A typical diet supporting villagers in a study by Salisbury (1969) was 2900 kcal/person/day, withjustover 35%ofa typical day spent on activitiesofsocial interaction and learning (Salisbury 1962, Grossman 1984). Annual genetic infonnation flux was estimated using a generation timeof33years [49 year average life expectancy (Gabel et a11987) 16 year average reproductive age] and an estimate for the energy contentofDNA (footnote 7). Relating3F-2

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.uJturaJ RenewableEnergy ---"-/,,/ 0\ ) / /IIJII\\\ /1/ILANDSCAPE "/,_/ PeopleFigureF-l.Systems diagram showing the resource basisofculturalandgenetic infonnation. and their role in the organizationofthe combined systemofhumanity and nature. (lnf=infonnation).

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Table F-1. Estimateofsolar emergy basisofindigenous culture in Papua New Guinea basedonresident renewable inputs from ecological support base. Solar emergy Energy Solar Annual Flux:flux fluxtransformity (sej/yr)(J/yr)(sej/J)IRenewable sources 1050 E+20 2 Human metabolism 1050 E+20 1.6 E+16 6.7 E+6 3 Infonnation flux 1050 E+20 5.7 E+15 1.8 E+6 4 Genetic flux 1050 E+20 6.3E+1O1.7 E+12 Steady state storage: (sej) (J) (sej / J) 5 Human population (3.5 million people) 3.5 E+24 1.0 E+15 3.5 E+9 6 Cultural infonnation 3.5 E+25 1.0 E+14 3.5E+lI7 Human DNA (genetic infonnation) 3.2 E+262.1E+12 1.5 E+14FootnotestoTable F-1. I) Annual renewable resource base (R) for Papua New Guinea (from tables A-I and A-2). 2) Annual melllbolism of human population: Average daily caloric intake per person=2927 kcaVday (Table E-3); (3.5 E+6 people) (2927 kcal/person/day) (4186 Jlkcal) (365 days/yr)=1.57 E+16 J/yr 3) Annual infonnationfluxfor village population: 61.3 hours/week spent on activitiesofsocial interaction and learned information (Salisbury 1962, Grossman 1984); 61.3 hrs/168 hrs/week=365%ofmetabolism allocated for shared information; (37%)(1.57 E+16 J/yr)=5.73E+15J/yr 4) Annual genetic information flow:49year life expectancy (Gabel et al 1987); average reproductive age=16years; generation timeofvillage population estimatedas49 yrs -16years=33 years; turnover time=1/33 yrs=0.03; (0.03)(2.1E+12 J/DNA, see item 7 below)=6.3 E+IO J/yr 5) Energy storageinvillage population: (3.5 E+6 people) (150 lbs, average weight) (20% dry malter) (454 g/lb)(5kcal/g) (4186 Jlkcal)=9.98 E+14J;Solar emergy storage estimatedastolal resident, renewable resource base(R)over generation timeofpopulation (33 yrs. see item 4 above); (1050 E+20 sejlyr) (33 yrs)=3.47 E+24 solar emjoules6)Storageoflearned. shared information (i.e. culture) based on estimateof10generationswithsocial information exchangewithinfonnation carriers assumedtostore informationas10%ofbiomass(J)initem 5; (1050 E+20 sej/yr) (10 generations)(33yrs/generation)=3.47 E+25 sej 7) Storageofhuman DNA (information carrier):(2.1mgDNNg dry) (9.98 E+14 J energy storage in population, item 5 above) (0.001 g/mg) (5 kcaVg)=2.1E+12 J human DNA in population; Genetic differences from precursor stocks generated in 100,000 years (estimate): (1050 E+20 sej/yr)(3generations/IOOyrs)(100,000 years)=3.15 E+26 sej3F-4

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this informationtoits annual solar emergy support (R), solar transformities were calculated for annual information fluxes (items 2, 3, and 4). Notice that solar emergy supporting one unitofgenetic energy flux is on the orderofone million times greater than the solar emergy supporting cultural information flows (approximately 2E+ 12 sej/J compared with 2E+6 sej/J). The solar emergy supporting a population is less per unit energy (i.e. the smaller transformities) than thatofthe information stored in the minds and genetic materialofthe population. Further, the solar emergyofsteady state, information storages are much higher than annual fluxes representing a historyofresources that both directly and indirectly support the originationofinformation (TableF-l,items 5, 6, and 7). With an approximation for turnoverofsocial informationof10 generations, a solar transformity for shared cultural information was calculated at3.5E+llsej/J (item 6). By comparison, a transformity for genetic information stored as human DNA was estimated at 1.5E+14sej/J (item 7; using a gross approximation for genetic differences in precursor stocksof100,000 years). Two trends are evidenced from these overview calculations. First, the solar emergyoflearned informationofculture is much less than that in the genetic informationofhuman species, since learned information is readily changed to make people more adapted to their environment. Second, once information has been either coded (genetic)orshared (cultural), the solar emergy required to transfer or share that information is much less than codifyingorlearningthe information in the first place. This observation supports the common postulate that high quality information such as electronic bits uses less energy per unit processed, although as demonstrated here, the solar emergy is greater.Inorder to relate cultural and genetic information with national emergy contributions, macro-economic values were calculated for the emergy supporting PNG nationals,their culture and their genetic stocks (Table F-2).Itshould be noted that these values are very preliminary and intended only to illustrate the importanceofrecognizing these information services and maintaining both cultural and genetic stocks.3F-S

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Table F-2. Macro-economic value')ofshared and genetic informationofPapua New Guinea culture. Solar emergy Macro-economic item(sej)value (US$) Support base for one human1.0 E+18 0.5 E+6 2Support baseofindigenous population1.05 E+23 52.5 E+9 3Support base for shared. cultural information3.5 E+2517E+12 4Support base for genetic information3.2 E+26 158 E+12a) Macro-economic value estimatedbydividing solar emergy basebythe emergy to dollar index for U.S.A.in1990(2E+lZ sejIUS$; Odum 1991). FootnotestoTableFoZ.1) Considered single copyofgenetic infonnation,with33 year generation; solar emergy slored in population (item 5, TableF-I) divided by population; (3.5E+Z4sej)I(3.5 E+6 people) = 9.9 E+17 sej2)Renewable solar emergy (tableA-l)supporting 3.5 million indigenous people.3)item 6, tableF-l;basedonestimatedof10generation culture.4)item7. tableF-l;estimate basedon100,000 yearstogenerate precursor genetic stocks; 3 generations/IOO yrs; renewablesolaremergysupportingpopulations.3F-6

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The gross national product in 1987 was 2.5 billion US$. By comparison, the solar emergy support base for the country's populationofthree and ahalfmillion people was estimated at over 50 billion US$ (item 2). The macro-economic valueofculture was estimated to be 7000 times greater than the national product (item3)'while the support base for genetic information in the peopleofPNGwhen expressed as macro-economic dollars was almost 70,000 times greater (item 4). These calculations illustrate the real value inherent in indigenous peoples and their diverse cultures. Activities which threaten the qualityoflifeand resource support baseofPNGnationals threaten these information stocks as well. Further, these high quality formsofinformation control large areasofresource development and exchange with only small amountsofenergy relative to the investmentsofsolar emergy in their origination over previous generations. Thus educational roles and information sharing influences larger areas with less energy. Similarly, genetic stocks transfer from one generation to the next with relatively small amountsofsolar emergy, even though their territoriesofcontrol are large. As evidenced by solar transformities calculated here, copiesofgenetic materialorshared cultural information are thousandsofordersofmagnitude less to undertake than developing that same information from scratch. By understanding the hierarchical positionofshared and stored information in a system, and by recognizing the diverse roles, the influence, and the flexibilityofthis information, we can now begin to address policy choices that affect the resource baseofpeople and thus their lifestyles, which together maintain high quality servicesatrelatively low amountsofsolar emergy.3F-7

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SUMMARY AND DISCUSSIONbyM.T.BrownandSJ.DohertyInthis section, asummaryofthe resultsfromthisstudyisgiven.First, the conceptofwealthisagainvisitedfroma solaremergyperspective.Thennational trendsarereviewedandPapuaNewGuinea'ssolaremergybasisiscomparedwith other nations foroverview.Issuesofinternational tradeandbalanceofpaymentsareaddressedrelatingindicesofsolaremergy-useto traditionaleconomicindicators.Resourcepolicy perspectivesaregiven forindigenousproductionsystemsofagricultureandforestry.Tourismandhumanresourcesarethen reconsidered basedonsustainabledevelopmentandanunderstandingofecologicalsupport.THEBASISFORWEALTHINECOLOGIC-ECONOMICSYSTEMSThewealthofnations is nottheamountofmoneythatisheldorcontrolled,but the basicresourcesthatareavailable todrivemachineryandtransportation,tosupply therawmaterials for agriculturalandindustrial production,andtosupport thequalityoflifeofitspeople.Thewealthof aregionincludesits storageofmineralandmetal ores, fossil carbons, soilsandforests,theproductiveprocessesofitsecosystems,anditsclimatethatincludesrenewablesourcesofsunandrainfall.InthecaseofPapuaNewGuinea,italsostemsfromtidalaction,wavesandoceancurrentsdrivingbay,estuarineandcoralreefecosystemsandrelatedfisheries.Aneconomyisnot a circulationofcurrency,but the circulationanduseofresources.Currencycirculation is a measureofaneconomy,muchlikedegreesoftemperatureareameasureofthe potentialenergyin a heatsource.Thepotential energyinresourcesthatdriveaneconomyisthe actual basis for its production,andthe circulationofcurrencyisbutonemeasureofthisdrivingforce.Aneconomyisthesumtotalofproductive processes thatmakeavailablegoodsandservices.Theprocessesareextraction, collection, concentration, transformationandexchange.Ineachoftheseprocesses,someresourcesareusedupandothersaretransformedorupgraded.Thecirculationofcurrencyisonemeasureof4-1

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the workorproductivityofan economy. When the performanceofa national economy is expressed using currency circulation, the measure is the relative dollar valueofall exchangesofresources, goods and services. Called the Gross National Product (GNP), it measures the currency circulation within, and into and outofa national economy. When corrected for inflation and differing exchange ratios between currencies, yearly changes in GNP and the differences between nations can be compared. The changes and differences are enlightening, but do not reflect in any real sense the actual productivity that occurs. Increasingly, over the last several decades, an economy's production has been made synonymous with its GNP. A large circulationofcurrency meant the economy was productive. With this over-emphasis on the circulationofcurrency as a measureofeconomic performance has come an increased useofmoney as the meansofdetermining value and wealth. This may seem appropriate, on the surface, since money can be converted to resources in almost any marketplace throughout the world. Yet, inherent in the useofmoney to establish value and measure wealthisa serious omission. Money cannot be used to measure the valueofthings for which there is no market. In otherwords,pricecannot measure the valueofresources relative to their contribution to productive processes outside the monied economy. Traditional economic theory is based on the premisesofscarcity and the belief that the wantsofhumans are virtually unlimited. From these twopremises comes the conceptofwillingness-to-pay. Essentially, the valueofa commodity, service,orresource is determined by its scarcity and how badly an individual wants it (often called supply and demand). Traditional economic value is determined by the user; what a consumer is willing to pay. In this context, economic value is equivalent to price. However, price says nothing about the contribution a commodity, service,orresource can make to an economy; it is only an accountofscarcity and the amountofmoney an individual is willing to pay to obtain it. Its value to the productive processesofan economy is unchanged regardlessofprice. As an example, consider gasoline: While its price fluctuates based on supply and demand, the numberofmiles that can be driven using a gallonofgasoline remains unchanged. The actual work that canbeaccomplished with the gallonofgas is unchanged, yet with fluctuations in the "valueofa dollar", the amountofgasoline that can be purchased with a single dollar changes. Further, the priceofa commodityorresource is generally inverse to the material's potential to contribute to productive processes. Consider a basic resource like water: When its abundant, it can support large amountsofagriculturalproduction, yet its relatively inexpensive. When water is scarce, on the other hand, few crops4-2

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canbegrown, there is little contributed to the regional economy, yet its price can be quite high. Economicsthe scienceofscarcity--does not adequately measure real contributions. GNP, while accounting for capital stocksofhuman industries, says nothing about stocksofnatural capital such as forests or the productive capacityofits land. Repetto (1989) points out that a country's natural resource base, upon which its economy is based, can be depleted to an unrecoverable extent, yet the country's leading economic indicators can still show productive growth and development. It is becauseofconcerns such as these, that an alternative measureofreal contributions is neededtobetter assess the wealthofcombined ecologic-economic systems.EMERGYevaluates the potential contributionofall resources to the economy, including those that are independentofmarket price. As a result, resources that are necessary inputs to an economy, but that do not carry a monetary price, can be evaluated and their contribution to productive processesofthe combined andinterdependentecologic-economic system can be estimated. Using solar emergy, all resources as well as flowsofrenewable energy can be included and their relative contributions evaluated. In this way, public policy decisions regarding resource-use, protection,orconservation can be better facilitated, since a more comprehensive pictureoftheir contribution to the economy emerges when evaluated using solar emergy. The units ofmcasure we used in this study, solar emjoules (sej), are unfamiliar to most people. This is a serious limitation and we recognize the difficulty this presents. In this discussion, we willtryto present the resultsofour analysis in unitsofsolar emergy as well as in macro-economic value, a public policy measureofrelative contribution. Results will also be compared with other studies and with thoseofother countries in percentage terms and using the indices discussed in the methods section. This should help to overcome the inherent difficultiesofusing unfamiliar unitsofmeasure.RESOURCEPOLICYPERSPECTIVESFORPAPUANEWGUINEASolarEmergyBasisforNation Papua New Guinea is a country rich in resources; its ecologic and cultural diversities are recognized the world over. Yet traditional economic analyses indicate that Papua New Guinea has a small amountofmoney circulating in its economy and thus a relatively poor standardofliving. This study, however, by synthesizing all contributing resources based on solar emergy, indicates a country with great quantitiesoflargely4-3

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renewable resources supporting diverse ecosystems, its people and its economy. The following table summarizes someofthe most important featuresofPapua New Guinea's combined ecologic-economic system: Table 4-1. Summaryofsolar emergy flows and indicesofPapua New Guinea in 1987. Renewable solar emergy-use 1050 E+20 sej/yr Non-renewable solar emergy-use 190 E+20 sej/yr Total solar emergy-use 1216 E+20 sej/yr Exported solar emergy 405 E+20 sej/yr Imported solar emergy 54 E+20 sej/yr Solar emergy/money 48E+12 sej/US$ Solar emergy/person 35 E +15 sej/person Dollars received from exports 1033 E+6 $/yr Dollars paid for imports 963 E+6 $/yr Papua New Guinea has a low economic to environment ratioof14% indicating the important roleofecological support systems to the nation's vitality. In fact, over 85%ofall solar emergy used each year is supplied through locally renewable sources without direct payment from the economy. As illustrated by the investment ratio, less than5%ofthe resources used within the country are purchased from foreign markets. This can be considered an indexofthe degreeofindustrial development. Used as a measureofself sufficiency, Papua New Guinea correspondingly receives more than 95%ofits total resornce base from largely renewable resources within its border (miningofmetal ores and fossil carbons contribute 10%). A subsystems analysisofPapua New Guinea's highlands and lowlands indicates that the majorityofthe country's renewable inputs are a resultoftrade winds condensing moisture over the forested central cordillera. These tropical, premontane, montane and alpine rainforest systems act as headwaters for large watersheds converging in lowlands and supporting coastal communities, port cities and the island's fisheries. Lowland4-4

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and lower montane rainforests represent the largest storageofsolar emergy among the country's reserves (84%), reflecting past contributionsofenvironmental transformations. The country's reserves offossil carbons as well as the fledgling industryofhydro-electric power generation may fill muchofthe country's fuel needsifthose resources are developed within the country for internal consumption. Since the net yieldoffossil fuels currently remains high compared with other primary sources available in the world markets (Odum 1991), Papua New Guinea will benefit in an emergy exchange for oil with other trading nations. Continued exploration, extraction and refinement efforts for the country's fossil carbon reserves should be directed, as much as possible, to home-use. As the net yieldsoffossil fuel derivatives decrease with increasing expenditures required for extraction and refinement, alternative fuels and practices will become more competitive.Itmay be prudent then, for Papua New Guinea to use that primary source to develop lower energy, sustainable technologies and avenues for commerce which will not find themselves dependent on those fuels should they become limiting in the future.Inthe probable event that a lower energy world is forthcoming as declining reservesoffossil fuels are used up world wide, Papua New Guinea will find itself in a secure position to face that future becauseofits large ecological support base. Papua New Guinea is unique among other nations in thatitstill has a largely renewable, self-supporting resource base with which it can draw upon for sustainable developmentofa steady-state economy.ComparisonswithOtherCountriesIndicesofsolar emergy-use, origin and exchange for Papua New Guinea are compared with resultsofstudiesofother countries in order to draw general conclusions and identifY trends using relative numbers for easier understanding. Papua New Guinea has the lowest ratioofimports to exports, when accounted for in solar emergy,ofany countryofthe world thus far studied (Table 4-2). Comparing countries' economicallyderived resources with environmental sources, Papua New Guineaiscurrently among the most self-sufficient nationsofthe world.Itis characteristicofrural, developing nations to derive mostoftheir support base from local, largely renewable sources. Industrialized nations, those tied to external markets and with infrastructure in place to utilize refined fuels, generally show the opposite trend. Compare for example,PNGwith the USA (0.14 compared with 7.1, respectively, Table 4-3).4-5

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Given in Figure4-1are conceptual diagramsofPNGand the USA showing their relationshipsofecological support and exchanges with the world economy. Here, solar emergy values are normalized so that imports, exports and nonrenewable reserves are expressed relative to renewable sources, setat"100" for each country. Differences between the 2 countries stand out. The United States imports 3 times more solar emergy than Papua New Guinea, each relative to its ecological contributions. It also exports more resources relative to its ecological inputs than PNG. The US economy is moretied to external markets and more dependent upon stored reserves than Papua New Guinea. Yet a measureofsurplus emergy available for growth and progress shows similar values. Papua New Guinea has anetpercapita surplusof25x 1015sej/person/yr, while the United States isofsimilar magnitude (28 x 1015sej/person/yr). The difference lies in the originsofthe inputs and their magnitude relative to exports. Here we see that while the USA operates at a net trade benefitofover 400 billion macro-economic dollars per annum, Papua New Guinea has a trade deficitofalmost $1 billion/yr (0.73E+9 $US, 1987). Our studies indicate that countries with positive trade imbalances (generally industrialized) derive their surpluses from countries operating trade deficits (generally developing countries). An intuitive conclusion, the consequencesofwhich are discussed in the following section. Papua New Guinea currently has a low population density(8peoplelkm') compared with other nations (Table 4-4). And although the country's annual emergy-use is relatively low compared with other larger, more industrialized countries, on a per capita basis it has among the highest emergy-useofany nation (Table 4-5). While manyofthe nations with high per capita resource consumption rates are industrialized and dependent upon foreign markets and nonrenewable fuels, PNG is exceptional in that it derives the vast majorityofits solar emergy from home sources. Finally, relating annual solar emergy-use with gross national product (sej/$), Papua New Guinea is shown to have a high indexofsolar emergy to money (Table 4-6). Again, rural countries tend to have more resources supporting each unitofcurrency than developed countries which have comparatively small amountsofreal resources contributing to relatively large circulationsofcurrency (i.e., GNP). Papua New Guinea has as much as 20 times the resources per GNP as some industrialized nations. This is due to a largely rural population which derives its basic resources from the surrounding ecological support base. Muchofthe4-6

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Table 4-2. Solar emergy self-sufficiency and trade balance for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for overview. Nation Netherlands West Germany Switzerland Spain U.S.A. India Sweden Taiwan Brazil Dominica New Zealand Thailand Australia Soviet Union Ecuador LiberiaPapua New Guinea %solar emergy from withinl )23IO1924 77883428916960 7092 97949296solar emergy imooned2 )solar emergyexponed4.34.23.22.3 2.21.451.351.190.98 0.84 0.76 0.54 0.39 0.23 0.20 0.150.13Solar emergy valuations for countries compared in Tables 4-1 4-5arebased on revised national analyses from Odum etal(1983) except Thailand (McClanahane1al 1990), Taiwan (Huang and Odum 1991), Ecuador (Odorn and Arding 1991) andSweden (Doheny etal1991). ValuesforPapuaNew Guinea based on national analysis documentedinSection 3-Aofthisstudy. I)(N,+R)IU;item 14, Table A-3. 2) (F+G+P,l) I(N,+B+P,E);ilem10,Table A-3.4-7

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Table 4-3. Environmental and economic componentsofannual solar emergy-use for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for ovelView. Environmental Economic component') component Economic/ (renewable solar emergy)ofsolar emergy") environment Nation (x 10" sejlyr) (x 10" sejlyr) ratio West Germany19317300 9.0 Switzerland87646 7.4 U.S.A. 8240 58160 7.1 Spain 255 1835 7.2 Sweden 630 1923 3.1 Dominica 2 5 2.7 Australia 4590 39601.1Thailand 7798111.1India 3340 3410 1.0 Soviet Union 9110 9110 1.0 World') 94400 90000 0.96 New Zealand 438 353 0.8 Brazil 10100 7600 0.7PapuaNew Guinea 1050 166 0.14 Ecuador8914830.1Liberia 427380.11)R=independent, renewable environmental sources; Table A-2.2)Total solar emergy-use minus renewable environmental contribution=U R,item 6, TableA-3.3) Annual global solar emergy flux dividedbyannual world fossil fuel consumption (updated from Odum and Odum 1983).4-8

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38Imports15PNG r-...... Export s Macro-economlcTradeDeficit=-0.73billion$USAImports230WorldEconomyMacro-economicTradeSurplus= +416 billion$Figure 4-1. Summary diagramsofecological contributions(R. N).imports and export exchanges with the world economy for PapuaNewGuinea and the United States. Annual emergy flows are normalized.calculated relative to renewable sources (set at 100).FootnotestoFigure4-1.Papua New Guinea data from this study (Table A-3); USA data from Odum etal1987. Net per capita surplus emergy = Annual emergy contributions [U; R+N+(F+G+P,I)] exports (N,+B+P1E)Ipopulation; PNG = ([1050+190+54-406]E+20 sej/yr)I(3.5E+6 people) = 25E+15 sej/person USA = ([82+543+190-107]E+20 sej/yr)I(227E+6 people) = 28E+15 sej/person Trade benefit (or deficit) = (Imports Exports)I(sej/$) = (macro-economic value): PNG = ([54-406IE+20 sej/yr)I(48E+12 sej/$) = -O.73E+9 $ USA = 9[190-107]E+20 sej/yr)I(2E+12 sej/yr) = + 415E+9 $4-9

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activities which generate revenue, which yield products for export, are supported by the country's natural resource base, outsideofmarket valuation. While a high solar emergy to dollar index is one measureofwealth, buying power actually rests with those economies with low sej/$ indices. This is because countries with large GNPs generally invest less actual resources per unit currency yet can turn around and purchase commodities from exporting countries which invest more total resources in their services and commodities made available for purchase. These concepts are explored further in the following section.InternationalTradeandBalanceofPaymentsPapua New Guinea currently has a7:I ratioofexports to imports [see Table A-3(11)]. This indicates that although there exists a balanceoftrade in monetary terms for imports and exports (Table 4-1), more than seven times as much solar emergy leaves PNG as is purchased. This represents an imbalance between the products sold and the buying powerofthe money received.Byexporting raw materials such as copper ores, unrefined fossil carbonsorunprocessed rainforest logs, a trade deficit is realized. Becauseofthe great amountofenvironmental resources supporting the country's currency, Papua New Guinea gives to its buyers on the international market more than it can purchase with the revenues received from exports. A coupleofexamples help to demostrate this issue. In 1988 while 1.033 billion dollars were paid for exported goods and services, 405E+20sejwere exported. By dividing the revenues received by the solar emergy obtained by foreign markets, an indexofsolar emergy received per dollar spentof39E+ 12 sej/$ is obtained. In contrast, Papua New Guinea paid 0.963E+9 US$ for 54E+20 sejofimported fuels, goods and services; a index 5.6E+9 sej/$. The difference is striking. Papua New Guinea operates under a net trade deficit, supplying purchasing nations with basic resources at a low costs, subsidized by its ecological support systems and geologic reserves. In 1988,PNGhad a net solar emergy deficit due to tradeof350E+20 sej [Table A-3(12)]. This is represents 0.73 billion dollars in macro-economic value lost due to tradepractices29%ofthe gross national product. To illustrate this concept in another way, the solar emergy exported can be related to the amountofsolar emergy that Papua New Guinea can purchase in return for the revenues received. The billion dollars received in revenues for the country's exports is used toto purchase necessary fuels, goods and services not currently4-10

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Table 4-4. Population density and solar emergy-useperunit area for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for overview. Nation Netherlands Taiwan West Germany Sweden Switzerland Dominica U.S.A. Liberia Ecuador Spain New ZealandPapuaNewGuineaThailand Brazil India Soviet Union Australia Area(x1010m')3.7 3.6 24.94I.!4.1 0.1940II.!28.0 50.5 26.9 46.2 74.0 918 329 2240 768 Population density') peoplejkm' 378 494 247 20.7 154 107 24.2 16.1 34 68.511.57.667.6 13.2 19211.61.9Solarempower density'> (xlO"sej/m'/yr) 100.0 94.6 70.4 62.117.78.87.04.1 3.4 3.12 2.94 2.63 2.15 2.08 2.051.711.421)Populationdividedbynationalarea.2) Rateofsolar emergy-use, U (item 5, Table A-3) divided by national area.4-11

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Table 4-5. Solar emergy-use, population and per capita solar emergy-use for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for overview. Nation Australia Papua New Guinea Sweden U.S.A. West Germany Netherlands New Zealand Liberia Soviet Union Brazil Dominica Switzerland Ecuador Taiwan Spain Thailand India Solar emergy usedI)(x IOZo sej/yr) 885012162552 66400 17500 3702 791 465 43150 178207733 964 1340 2090 1590 6750 Populationx106153.5 8.5 227 62143.11.32601210.08 6.37 9.6 17.8 134 50.0 630 Solar emergy-useperperson2 )(x 1015sej/personjyr)593530 29 28 26 26 2616 15 1312 10863.211)U=N1+R+F+G+P,I; item5,TableA-3. 2)Papua New Guinea's population(1987)=3.5million; item16,TableA-3.4-12

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Table 4-6. Solar emergy-use, gross national productsandsolar emergy/dollar indices for Papua New Guinea and other countriesofthe world for overview. Solar emergy usedI) GW) Solar emergy-use/dollar') Nation (x lOW sej/yr) (x109US$/yr) (x1012sej/US$)PapuaNewGuinea1216 2.6 48.0Liberia 465 1.34 34.5 Dominica 7 0.08 14.9 Brazil 17820 214. 8.4 India 6750 106. 6.4 Australia 8850 139. 6.4 Thailand 1509 43.1 3.7 Soviet Union 43150 1300. 3.4 New Zealand 791 26. 3.0 West Germany 17500 715. 2.5 U.S.A. 66400 2600. 2.0 Netherlands 3702 16.6 2.2 Taiwan186199.3 1.9 Sweden 2553 155. 1.7 Spain 2090 139. 1.6 Switzerland 733 102. 0.7I)U=NJ+R+F+G+P,J; item 5. Table A-3. 2) Gross national productfor1987; Table A-2.3) Solar emergy supporting a unitofcurrency, expressedininternational US$, 1987;PI'Table A-2.4-13

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available within Papua New Guinea. Again a net trade deficit is realized because trading nations generally have lower sej/$ indices.Ifthe trade partner were the U.S.A. for example, with its 2E+ 12 sej/$ (Odum 1987), it would receive 24 times as much solar emergy as Papua New Guinea could purchase with the earned revenuesofits export sales. These issuesoftrade advantages are addressed with specific examples in Section Dontourism and later in this concluding section. Currently, international free trade agreements suchasGATT only acknowledge market valuesoftrade commodities and services. As discussed previously, monetary prices are subject to fluctuations based on market temperment and do not account for the indirect but necessary contributionsofecological support systems. In lightofthis and the large trade imbalances documented in this analysis, an obvious conclusion for Papua New Guinea is to develop local industries to process indigenous resources before they are exported. In this way, net lossesofsolar emergy through trade are minimized while jobs and resources are kept at home. By processing and using indigenous resources at home, value is added each time high quality servicesorfuels transform the materials into upgraded products. This provides a greater contribution to the economy than the money received in sales. A traditional economic argument is that by keeping raw products at home insteadofexporting them for income earnings, the local prices are forced down and the country will not receive a maximum economic return on its investment. Another way to look at this is that falling prices can attract internal investments--necessary income for building the industries and providing jobs to use the resources at home. Product transformations take place at home and employment is internalized. The local economy is benefited, rather than thatofurban industrialized nations overseas. Borrowing and debt servicing, as demonstrated from a systems perspective, is also detrimental to the economic healthofrural countries. Papua New Guinea, for example, borrows international currency from developed nations at an averageof2-4E+12sej/$, yet pays back the principle and its interest with it's own currency at 48E+12 sej/$. For every dollar PNG borrows, it pays back between 12-24 times that amount in real buying power. When an international dollar is converted to kina, it can purchase greater amountsofresources than it can at home. This is, at leastinpart, why industrialized economies invest in less developed countries; their investments derive greater net benefits as they receive basic resourcesatlow costs which fuel their home industries and providejobsand resources with high net yields.4-14

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RegulationandInvestmentConsiderationsinForestrySectorItis encouraging to read the country's preamble and constitution which purports self-sufficiency and recognizes the costsofforeign owned and operated industries. Major timber projects, along with mineral and hydrocarbon exploration, offshore fishing and agriculture are listed as priority activities, in which the governmentofPapua New Guinea is actively seeking new foreign investment (Baldwinetal 1977). The National Investment and Development Authority, however, has recognized the losses associated with over participation by foreign companies and the direct exportofthe raw timber products as indicated io the followiog passage: "The utilizationofour forest resources must be carefully planned. We will not allow systematic logging or clear fellingofour forest areas purely for the exportofthe unprocessed wood. The exportoflogs as a revenue earner is no longer appropriate and will be eliminated. Existing operations will be encouraged to increase the degreeofprocessing and vertical integration. within Papua New Guinea. In any forestry development, reforestation mustbeundertaken as a meansofrenewing the resource and sustaining the iodustry" (Baldwin et al. 1977). Yet becauseofnational pressure for economic development, decisions were made to proceed with offeriog timber concessions for developmentofa major export indusll)' (F AO 1976, Davidson 1983). Although further research and baseline data collection was commissioned and is continuing (Davidson 1983), there has been little effort to refine and analyze the data for use in a comprehensive foresll)' development policy (Seddon 1984). Reforestation efforts to date have been minimal. Presently, only about 12%ofthecleared areasofthe major forestry projects have been developed for reforestation (Seddon 1984) and agricultural development on these areas is met with only limited success. Qureshi etal(1988) report that log exports are a major export item and continued growth io export volumes is expected over the medium term. They further suggest that a resource management strategy is urgently needed so that these resources can be developed on a sustainable basis. A Tropical Foresll)' Action Plan for Papua New Guinea (see World Bank 1990) has been issued which outlioes a courseofaction the government should take to promote sustainable developmentofits forest resources. The TFAP is not without its criticisms. The World Resorces Institute reported that the TFAP in4-15

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general is not acheiving manyofthe plan's original objectives (Winterbottom 1990). The Papua New Guinea Law Reform Commission published a critique stating that theTFAP is "flawed by its failure to confront the fundamental contradiction between a money-based profit-oriented economic system and its values on the one hand, and wider national, global, ecological, customary, political and social needs on the other" (Brunton 1990). The critque argues that the roleofthe forests must not rest solely in development for market exchange but also and perhaps more importantly their "use value" should be acknowledged, i.e., those ecosystem services without market value. Our analysesofforest reserves demonstrate that the tropical forestsofPapua New Guinea are its greatest assets. The subsystems analysisofforest operations in New Britain indicates that although the lowland forests deliver as much as 4 to I net returns on investments, becauseoftheir diversity and their great mixofunmarketable timber species, large-scale clearfell forest practices may not be sustainable nor competitive in the long-term. Presently "wokabot" sawmills are being distributed to communities through government loan programs. These are small-scale, transportable sawmills that can process about 0.5-1kmboard feetoftimber daily and cost 7-10,000 kina for the equipment and training. This technology is intended to bring a levelofinternal-useofforest resources and perhaps a levelofself-sufficiency for villagers. It is recommended that appropriate technologies that support local peoples be given increased consideration in forest policy. The rainforest-land rotation model suggests that better monitoringofbaseline data is essential for proper management and sustainable useofthese resources. Lowland and montane rainforest ecosystems in Papua New Guinea embody a great historyofenvironmental work, transforming resident energy flowsofsun and rain into vast storesofbiomass in complex and functioning ecosystems. But becauseofthe riskoflanddegradation due to high rains and increased runoff on mountainous terrain,ifexploited these forests may provetobe non-substitutable ecosystems. Further, manyofthe services provided by these systems are in fact without market value. The indigenous peopleofPapua New Guinea have developed integrated yield systems with their environment throughout their history. Our analysesofforestsand the ecological support basisofdevelopments and indigenous culture have demostrated real wealth contributed by these systems, values mostofwhich are outside the market place.4-16

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TOURISM,DEVELOPMENT,ENVIRONMENTALIMPACfANDTHELOCALECONOMYTourist developmentsinundeveloped regions often compete with local populations for resourcesfromlandand marine systems, for potable water and for availableland.Emergy evaluationoftourisminPapuaNewGuinea evaluated the intensityofa small scale tourist development,andthen determined a carrying capacity or support region that is necessary to insure that development does not have negative environmental, economic, and cultural impacts. Determinationofcarrying capacitywasbasedonthe premise thatfordevelopment to fit within a region its intensity should nearly match the intensityofdevelopmentofthe regiononthe average. The following table summarizes several important indices for a typical tourist developmentinPapua New Guinea. Table 4-7. Summary of the solar emergy evaluationoftourisminNewBritain,PNG.Tourist Resort PNG Renewable solar emergy (E+15sej/yr) Non-renewable solar emergy (E+15sej/yr) Percent renewable Solar emergy density(lOllsej/m'/yr) Solar emergy per capita (sej/person/yr) Ratioofsolar emergy: exports/imports8.111.950.1%2742 77916:I86%2.6357:1Several interesting factsareapparentinthe table:(I)the percentofsupporting emergyintourist resorts thatisfromrenewable sourcesisverysmall (less than0.1%),(2)theenergy intensityoftourist resortsisnearly 1000 times the average intensityinPNG, and(3)the per capita energy-usebytouristsisover20times thatofthe average PNG national. The ratioofemergyexports to imports shows a net export for both tourism and the national economyasa whole, although tourism appears to beasmuchas3 times greater.4-17

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A DefinitionforEcotourismThetenn'ecotourism' has recently become much in vogue. While it means many things to many people, its basis lies in the desireoftourists and the world tourist industry to seek out an unspoiled environment to observe "nature". Most often this means observing wildlifeofsome fonn in its natural environment. Natural environments are decreasing as population increases and development spreads, so the few that remain are deservingofspecial attention to ensure that the very environment upon which the wildlife depends is not degraded by tourists who seektoenjoy it. To ensure that there is an unspoiled environment for future generations, ecotourism should strive tofitwithin a region's carrying capacity and achieve a sustainable levelofdevelopment that does not draw more from the regional resource base than it can provide. The following are several general principles that we feel are important guidelines for an ecologically based tourism industry in undeveloped regionsofthe globe:Ecotourismshouldbeenvironmentallybenign. Environmental pollutionofany sort should be cause for disqualification.Anecotourism resort should fit within the local environment's ability to handle and process wastes. Useofresources should be minimized and waste byproducts like sewage and solid wastes should be recycled. Developments should be favored that, becauseoftheir sizeorfor cultural reasons,(I)do not requireimportsoffoods and materials, (2) do not overload the local environment's ability to provide these commodities, and (3) do not produce waste byproducts that overload the environment's ability to process them.Ecotourismshouldbesustainable. All ecological systems have a sustainable yield that is a functionoftheir productivity and the positive feedback actionsofthose harvesting the resources. For instance, forests have a sustainable yield that is based on the productionofwood on the one hand, and management actionsofforesters that increase production on the other. When the sustainable yieldisexceeded, declines in both the quantity and qualityofthe harvest results. With continued overload, the environmental system can degenerate to such a point that no yield is possible. Local fisheries, ecological and agricultural systems, and the local pooloflabor have a sustainable yield that,ifnot exceeded, can provide the resources necessary for a tourist development that is sustainable in the long run; however,ifexceeded,itnot only jeopardizes the development, but the local population as well.4-18

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Ecotourismshould be scaled tothelocal economy. Large developments often exceed the local economy's ability to provide start-up capital and needed infrastructure. As a result, external financing is required. Tourist developments and needed infrastructure like airports, roads, and waste treatment plants that are externally financed often result in secondary environmental degradation as resources from other sectorsofthe environment are extracted and sold to earn the necessary currency to pay back principle and interest on tourism related infrastructure. On the other hand, small-scale, locally financed operations are more apt to fit within current infrastructure and not require external financing.Ecotourismdevelopment should not increasetherateofchange in economicorculturalsystems. The rate at which development occurs often can exceed the abilityofthe local cultureand economy to absorb it, and while its ultimate size may not be a problem,ifdeveloped too quickly it may cause disruption. The rateofchange also applies to the abilityofthe local environment's sustainable ratesofproductionofresources.4-19

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