Citation
Female preferences for unmated versus mated males in two species of voles, prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) and montane voles (Microtus montanus)

Material Information

Title:
Female preferences for unmated versus mated males in two species of voles, prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) and montane voles (Microtus montanus)
Creator:
Pierce, John David, 1959-
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
viii, 144 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Animals ( jstor )
Ejaculation ( jstor )
Female animals ( jstor )
Mating behavior ( jstor )
Odors ( jstor )
Prairies ( jstor )
Rats ( jstor )
Species ( jstor )
Voles ( jstor )
Women ( jstor )
Sexual attraction ( lcsh )
Sexual behavior in animals ( lcsh )
Voles ( lcsh )
Genre:
bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1989.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 121-143).
General Note:
Typescript.
General Note:
Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
by John David Pierce.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
Copyright [name of dissertation author]. Permission granted to the University of Florida to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
Resource Identifier:
001500395 ( ALEPH )
AHB3123 ( NOTIS )
21381661 ( OCLC )

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:


Full Text








FEMALE PREFERENCES FOR UNMATED VERSUS MATED MALES IN TWO
SPECIES OF VOLES, PRAIRIE VOLES (MICROTUS OCHROGASTER) AND
MONTANE VOLES (MICROTUS MONTANUS)







By

JOHN DAVID PIERCE, JR.


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY



UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


1989






















Copyright 1989

by

John David Pierce, Jr.



















This dissertation is dedicated to the memory of a true,

true friend and sense, Willard F. Day.













ACKNOWLEDGMENTS


It is difficult to acknowledge all the people who

have provided assistance in the completion of this work.

I thank my committee members, Drs. Marc N. Branch, H. Jane

Brockmann, Donald A. Dewsbury, Sergio M. Pellis, and John

G. Robinson. Each has been extremely generous in sharing

time, ideas, and other valuable resources. I especially

thank my committee chair and major professor, Dr.

Dewsbury, for his invaluable contributions to all aspects

of my education. I have learned much from him.

I thank my fellow graduate students for their unique

contributions. In particular, Stephen A. Taylor has

always been there when I needed him. His help is

gratefully acknowledged.

My family has shown remarkable altruism (based on kin

recognition) and I thank them for that.

Finally, and most importantly, I thank my wife

Lorraine for all her love, support, and encouragement.

This is as much her accomplishment as it is mine.










TABLE OF CONTENTS

page

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...... ...............................iv

ABSTRACT.... ..................... .......................... ii

INTRODUCTION.... ...........................................1

Mate Choice............................................. 2
Methodological Issues in Preference Demonstration......4

ASSOCIATION AND MATING PREFERENCES IN MUROID RODENTS........ 9

Preferences for Conspecifics...........................9
Preferences for Members of the Opposite Sex...........20
Preferences for Different Reproductive Conditions.....23
Preferences for Dominant Individuals..................27
Preferences Based on Genetic Differences..............29
Preferences for Familiar and Novel Conspecifics........32
Preferences for Unmated versus Mated Individuals.......36
Other Preferences....................................38
Summary of Association/Mating Preferences.............40
Future Directions....................................48

RELATIONSHIP OF MATE CHOICE TO MATING SYSTEM..............51

Mating Systems of Prairie and Montane Voles...........51
Mating Systems and Mate Choice........................58
Summary..... ........................................... 65

GOALS OF THE PRESENT RESEARCH.............................66

TEN EXPERIMENTS ON FEMALE PREFERENCES.....................69

General Method......................................... 69
Experiment 1 ..........................................75
Experiment 2..........................................78
Experiment 3...........................................79
Experiment 4........................................... 83
Experiment 5...........................................90
Experiment 6...........................................92
Experiment 7........................................... 93
Experiment 8........................................... 95
Experiment 9............................................99
Experiment 10........................................105






GENERAL DISCUSSION ................. ................... 107

Summary and Overview of Results......................107
Comparison to Preferences in Other Species........... 113
Preferences in Prairie and Montane Voles.............115
Preferences and Mating Systems........................119

REFERENCES................................ ................. 121

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH... ..................................144











Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy


FEMALE PREFERENCES FOR UNMATED VERSUS MATED MALES IN TWO
SPECIES OF VOLES, PRAIRIE VOLES (MICROTUS OCHROGASTER) AND
MONTANE VOLES (MICROTUS MONTANUS)

By

John David Pierce, Jr.

August, 1989

Chairman: Donald A. Dewsbury
Major Department: Psychology

Mate selection has been the focus of much thought and

experimental inquiry in the field of animal behavior.

Many criteria have been identified as influencing mate

choice in rodent species. In the present study, one

aspect of mate choice, namely female preferences for

unmated versus mated males, was examined in two species of

voles, prairie voles (Microtus ochroqaster) and montane

voles (M. montanus). These two species were compared

because existing field and laboratory evidence suggests

that they may differ in their mating systems, with prairie

voles being generally monogamous and montane voles

generally polygamous. In a series of 10 experiments,

female preferences for unmated versus recently mated males

were examined using two different procedures. In tether

tests permitting copulatory behavior, prairie vole females


vii






preferentially visited with unmated males over males that

had been mated for three ejaculations prior to testing

(Exp. 1). Prairie vole females preferentially associated

with anesthetized unmated males over anesthetized males

that had delivered three ejaculations prior to testing

(Exp. 3). When mated males delivered one, as opposed to

three, ejaculations prior to testing, prairie vole females

showed no preferences in tether tests (Exp. 2) and greatly

reduced preferences in anesthetization tests (Exp. 4).

Montane vole females showed few preferences during either

procedure regardless of the number (one or three) of prior

ejaculations by the mated male (Exps. 5-8). In

Experiments 9 and 10, females of each species were mated

to either fresh or already mated males to assess

detrimental effects on pregnancy initiation as a

consequence of mating with a depleted male. No

significant differences were noted for either species in

either probability of pregnancy or size of resulting

litters. Species differences in female preference for

unmated males parallel differences in other mating

preferences and may be related to mating system

differences.


viii













INTRODUCTION


Mate selection has been the focus of much thought and

experimental inquiry in the field of animal behavior.

Potential mating partners can vary considerably along

several dimensions related to mate quality (Halliday,

1983). Variations in characteristics such as physical

condition, dominance status, resources, and parental

abilities, among others, affect many parameters of

reproduction, including the number, survival, and quality

of offspring. A key tenet of evolutionary theory is that

animals should be selected for their ability to assess

potential mates with respect to these characteristics.

Discrimination and selection of the best potential mate

available should enhance an individual's reproductive

success. For this reason, the study of mate choice is an

important area of interest in animal behavior. In the

present study, one aspect of mate choice, namely female

preferences for unmated versus recently mated males, was

examined in two species of voles, prairie voles (Microtus

ochrogaster) and montane voles (M. montanus).






Mate Choice



In this section, mate choice is defined and discussed

in relation to mating preferences and active versus

passive choice.



A Definition



Halliday (1983) has defined mate choice as "any

pattern of behaviour, shown by members of one sex, that

leads to their being more likely to mate with certain

members of the opposite sex than with others" (p. 4).

This definition has the advantage of characterizing mate

choice solely in terms of observable phenomena. Further,

this definition makes clear that the relationship between

variations in individual behavior and variations in mating

success is the critical relationship underlying mate

choice.



Active versus Passive Choice



As Halliday's definition implies, mate choice need

not be based on specific mating preferences by the

choosing animal. For example, differences in the ease of

localizing the source of a call may lead to variations in

mating success. Alternatively, individuals may move

toward the source of a call perceived as the closest.






Parker (1983), O'Donald (1983), and others, have attempted

to clarify this issue by distinguishing between passive

and active choice. For Parker (1983), passive choice

occurs when individuals have no prior preferences for

particular characteristics, but are passively attracted to

the most intense source of a conspecific cue. Searcy and

Andersson (1986) proposed that passive choice be defined

as choice of the animal perceived to be closest to the

choosing individual.

In active choice, by contrast, choosing individuals

exhibit preferences for particular characteristics. In

these cases, individuals choose mates based on phenotypic

preferences shaped by natural selection. Whereas in

passive choice the choosing individual accepts any mate

perceived as most proximate, in active choice choosing

animals will reject certain individuals regardless of

their proximity. Thus, "evidence that females actively

reject some males in favour of others is needed to

establish the occurrence of active choice" (Partridge &

Halliday, 1984, p. 235).

Sullivan (1989) has argued that the distinction

between passive and active choice is inappropriate and

that the more important issue is the evolutionary

significance of mate choice. First, Sullivan argues, it

is difficult to distinguish between these two types of

mate choice, especially at a proximate level. For

instance, attraction to the more intense (Parker, 1983) or







most proximate (Searcy & Andersson, 1986) cue may

represent an active choice for proximity. Second,

instances of passive choice may still be shaped by natural

selection: "If we find that females prefer mates who call

frequently, we may still ask why the female's sensory

system passively responds in such a fashion" (p. 693).

Further, passive responding in this manner may still

result in differential mating success conferred upon

certain individuals, and these evolutionary implications

need to be addressed. Sullivan's approach emphasizes, as

does Halliday's (1983) definition, that the critical

relationship underlying mate choice is between variations

in individual behavior and variations in mating success.

Halliday's (1983) definition was adopted for the

present work. Following Sullivan (1989), no attempt was

made to distinguish between passive and active choice.

The word "preference" in the present paper is used as a

convenient descriptive term for associative or mating

behaviors directed toward particular individuals.



Methodological Issues in Preference Demonstration



Many studies of mate choice have involved

experimental manipulations in a laboratory setting.

Although such manipulations provide a powerful means of

investigation, there are methodological concerns which can

affect the demonstration of mating preferences. These




5


concerns are addressed in this section through a

consideration of stimulus presentation and response

measurement.



Stimulus Presentation



Several methods have been used for the presentation

of stimuli in an experimental study of mate choice. In

most laboratory studies of mating preference, the test

subject is placed in an arena where two or more stimuli

are presented simultaneously. Stimuli can be presented

singly in a sequential manner, but such procedures are

less sensitive and more variable than two-choice

preference tasks in which two stimuli are presented

simultaneously (Johnston, 1981). Forced-choice paradigms

in which the subject must be in an area associated with a

stimulus do not allow an assessment of whether the subject

is attracted to one stimulus or repelled by the other

stimulus (Doty, 1975). Accordingly, most preference tasks

incorporate a neutral area.

Stimuli presented in a preference task may be live

animals, anesthetized animals, or odors collected from

animals. Each type of stimuli has its own particular

advantages. The use of odors as stimuli allows the

opportunity to isolate and test a specific sensory cue

without the effects of other sensory modalities. Use of

live animals has at least two advantages. First, live







stimuli allow for presentation of cues from more sensory

modalities. Second, use of live animals permits the

recording of different measures (e.g., copulatory

measures) to provide a more powerful means of assessing

preferences. Anesthetization procedures are useful in

isolating specific sensory cues while controlling for

extraneous behavioral cues by the stimulus animals.

The mode of stimulus presentation is more than a

question of convenience. In some cases, the way in which

stimuli are presented can influence the outcome of

preference testing. For example, male golden hamsters

prefer odors from estrous females over diestrous females

(Johnston, 1980), but apparently do not show this

preference when live animals serve as stimuli (Johnston,

1980; Kwan & Johnston, 1980). Preferences are most

accurately assessed when a combination of stimuli

presentations is used.



Response Measurement



A number of different measures have been used to

assess preferences. Measures taken to evaluate

preferences may be time spent in association with a given

stimulus, copulation with each stimulus animal, or

specialized behaviors (e.g., sniffing, urine marking,

solicitation behavior) directed towards the stimulus.







Ideally, mating preferences should be assessed by a

methodology that permits copulation as a measured response

(Johnston, 1983). Such a procedure is advantageous in

determining that preferences directly result in mating

behavior being directed toward a particular partner.

However, a laboratory choice test may preclude the

expression of a preference because of the proximity of and

the ease of copulating with both potential mating

partners.

An alternative approach is to assess association

preferences when copulation is prevented (e.g, by a wire

barrier) or impossible (e.g., use of anesthetized animals

or odor cues alone). In such studies, association

preferences are assumed to reflect mating preferences.

Studies using association measures have the advantages of

controlling for animal differences extraneous to the

variable under study and of allowing for a more precise

analysis of a specific criterion for mate choice. The

validity of such an approach in assessing mate choice is

dependent upon the relationship between association

preferences and mating preferences, a relationship not

fully established. Ideally, both approaches should be

used in conjunction to assess mate choice.







Summary



Association and mating preferences have been

established for many species by these methods and have

been the subject of much recent literature (cf., Bateson,

1983). There is now strong evidence that females play an

active role in the initiation and maintenance of

copulation (Doty, 1974) and do exert active choice in mate

selection (Partridge & Halliday, 1984). Evidence is also

accumulating that males of many species exhibit mating

preferences as well (Dewsbury, 1982a). The mating

preferences of muroid rodents are the subject of the next

section.













ASSOCIATION AND MATING PREFERENCES IN MUROID RODENTS


Many criteria that form the basis for association and

mating preferences have been identified for muroid

rodents, a diverse taxonomic group numbering over 200

genera in three major and two minor families (Dewsbury,

1984). Olfactory cues, in particular, appear to be

critical, as preferences have been exhibited for several

classes of mammalian social odors (Brown, 1979). However,

preferences have been established for a number of non-

olfactory cues as well. Table 1 contains a listing of the

muroid rodent species which have been studied for mating

preferences and which will be discussed in this section.



Preferences for Conspecifics



A fundamental problem for animals selecting mates is

identifying conspecifics. Species-typical odors, odors

"characteristic of all members of a species or subspecies"

(Brown, 1979, p. 104), have often been shown to influence

mate choice and association preferences. Species

exhibiting a preference for conspecifics versus

heterospecifics are listed in Table 2. With few










Table 1
Muroid Rodent Species in which Association or Mating Preferences
have been Established


Common Name


Scientific Name


Montane voles

Prairie voles

Gray-tailed voles

Meadow voles

Common voles

Bank voles

Brown lemmings

Collared lemmings

Golden hamsters

Romanian hamsters

Turkish hamsters

Indian desert gerbils

Mongolian gerbils

House mice

Laboratory rats

Pygmy mice

S. grasshopper mice

Deer Mice

White-footed mice

Mexican mice


Microtus montanus

M. ochrogaster

M. canicaudus

M. pennsylvanicus

M. arvalis

Clethrionomys glareolus

Lemmus trimucronatus

Dicrostonyx groenlandicus

Mesocricetus auratus

M. neutoni

M. brandti

Meriones hurrianae

M. unguiculatus

Mus musculus

Rattus norvegicus

Baiomvs taylori

Onychomys torridus

Peromyscus maniculatus bairdi

P. leucopus

P. polionotus







Table 1-- continued


Common Name


Scientific Name


California mice P. californicus

Cactus mice P. eremicus

Wood rats Neotoma micropus

Desert wood rats Neotoma lepida












Oc 00 co co co co

a% ON 0) ON H

o 0 0o 0 > > > H H cc
SH H 4 H 0 0H 0 0 : ,.O O.
00 ( 0 0 (>0 > > CO Z

0C C C C C4 C CO C4 J C C H
F-4 r-4 rH r)l 0r l a) H

a (o i- O O W O O 4O O p
-- 0 0 0 0 4 4






OO r ,I I 0 0 0l 0 0 U) )l >
+ 0 C C C U U 0 L1 H H H 3














S- 1, .4O o o4 14 P 4 0 o o
4 o ) E D to a a )rl i a E ( ul na
p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 H 0 0 0



) i ) U ) i ) O U 0 0 u U U u)













H (11 I 0 0
H 4 4 w o ( )
0) t 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0) u M u a u U u a u R 0 u U U U







)0 ) -4 I 1 1 0
o U) U)





) (0 0
-r U 4) V r- r H
S(0 v H H 0> 0 U) 0 0 U M as
Srl > 0 0 > > > U U U)


44 U) rq *4 -- > f rHq rHl -44I *H
U 0 0 40 04 0 4 ( O (l< 00 0



0 0C H I (C (0 0 C0 (- -i ( { 0 0 5-




S- 0 0r Pk

0 0 CO C C C C C CO C
c0 0 0



U)

4 r-4 r-1 W- )
0 0 r-1 r-4
S> r-4 > 0 0 0
-4 > > r

P 0 0
U P >4 e
U)) 0 to
0 1 0 0 0 U U) 0








0
r"-
NO
m o 0 0
CO (1 <>O O
DO O O N
s (0 to r
0 0 0 0 0 0


0 o C0 0 .
c cW co c -, -
m ON ON C) 1



H,- ( H H H-. 9- 4- UN 4J
U4 U U 0 N 04 0 4
,, a ~


0 0 0 0 H H H H C ) ,4

o o oo 0 0
00 0 0c4 C) P c
C) C C C



in ia i iE n En W w U) En Ei n M) to En M C
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ct g a En




C U U U U U U U U U U U 0 U 0
'I)






U 9 r. 3 U ) U Ul ) U )

.H 4 ) C C -ri WC C )0 4 4- 4 C

4)4 > r I M d O 0 ( (-4
0 4J 4) ( U U U U 0 p M w




4 H 44 4 It 4 C O 0 4 4.)
M 0 0 ) 0 ) to U U w 0 0 0 .
0 4 ()) ) 4 a 4 94
4 ) I *H 0 0 0 0



0 C C H H p 0 0 :) C) 0 C) ( >1 C C
0 0 P H 4. 4. 4) r4 "i4 -4 U4 4
u) 4.1 r-4 (i) C)q C) U) U) r U 00 -4 r-4
oo ) C) C ) to H A s to to 0 4. 4) 4 0 t



4 0 4 0 0 0 0
) 0H 0 0 -4 -0 H q I I >H >H
0 0 O O O i O 330 O 0 0 0



H 0 o0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1-. (G <0 03 0 0 0 0 0 0fl i0
x 0 0 0 0 -4 0 4 H -H *D.4 ...4 *- *'4 *z.4 *zPz







U) U

4) C) ( .

4.) < in 0 U)
H 0 0 Cq

Ci M ) rl 0
C) q mC C)
V r0 .l U)
O H 0 4 M
0 0 0 0 0 0




14










N 0 N
o 0 0 0 0\





m I'D > m N 0 m > e w %
ori 4i C c
N N








0 0
H H i*H
4 r. ) 4 ) .- 4 )








S 0 0 4 0 03
M M 0 0i E O


a a a 04 04
> t-i o C i C C o C o r
-4 -4 O 4.li 4.l >









C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 l 0 0 0 0 0




z z +z U u u u z z u z z z
H H (D 10 L0 (0 0 0 0 ) L0




>q H U4

0) i H 4 4-) 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 U0 0
M0
000 0 0 0 0 0





-4 P*4 *-I



Qo (a o a o





0 0 0 0 0 0 -HO.qO0
4 0 4 O 0 0 0 0 0 O 0 0 O
S*H 4 44 r *
O ap O e










0- H U 0 0 U O.
0Q0)0 4 X -4 4 *-4 X 4 a) 4 0 0






















0 4 1
S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0








*-H


0) U

UH 0 0




00 US X
C. 4 Q S S









N N
0 0 H H

c c o cc 1-1 r- -
O O Ch O0 U C
SH 44 r- O H



a4a A a 0 0


C C > >
tC C0 k M Q
4J 4J 4 4 4 4- '4 0 0 U 0 4
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E MQ o oa a a W m











S 0 0 z 0 0 c
0 U U U U U K O O U U U




0 4 0 U U U 0 O4 0 0






4-4 > "4 -H4 rH ".q

0 ( U u U (0 0 (0 (D 4) 4- ) 4
*c-: "q q r -H ui 4- u u 0 0 V ui


to p. R a.4 "A 0 0 0


4-) 4 4 4.) 4. -.4 --4 -H U) UM 4 4O 0
S0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0



U0
r-I r-& *4 -4 5. 4 5-1

M 4 -4 -4 ".4 4 O- ".4 0 0 00
4 0 0 0 0




MI ) o



D W>*

0 4
S4- 0
0 IV 9:g 4











l 4 3 0 0 0 I I


) r-4 5-i rq 0 3
+* 4". 4J II

U) H U *i O
00 0 0







exceptions, animals have demonstrated clear preferences

for members of the same species.

Two main factors have been identified as modifying

conspecific association preferences. First, results from

cross-fostering work have demonstrated that these

preferences are influenced by early experience. Table 3

contains a listing of cross-fostering studies in which

species preferences have been evaluated. Not all species

studied have established preferences for foster species.

In general, however, most cross-fostered animals appear to

show a preference for the foster species or a significant

reduction in preferences for conspecifics. D'Udine and

Alleva (1983) have reviewed cross-fostering studies from

several rodent families. Their conclusions are similar to

the present ones: "Early experience resulted mainly in a

reduced preference for conspecifics and in an enhanced

preference for the cross-fostering species" (p. 312).

Foster preferences, like conspecific preferences

(Porter & Doane, 1979), are established early.

Preferences for foster species are evident as early as two

days of age in spiny mice reared by house mice (Porter,

Deni, & Doane, 1977). LeRoy, Roy, and Briley (1982)

showed an effect of cross-fostering in 15-day-old house

mice and an effect of the general rearing environment

(colony odors) in 36-day-old house mice.

Second, conspecific preferences in several species

are influenced by the estrous state of the female. In









co cc 0c 0 c
r- r, r- r- 0

oco oo oll 0 ON



H H H H 0) 0* 0
f 0 i4 4 4 (0 (*3
S- O > C


0 r 3 o O 0 0 0 0 H > > 4 -1
4H Jl rH a O L a-I m
M I Ul M ^ X rIl 4 rl (L) 4 0) r






9C C C9 C9 H H H r .4
O O O O 0 0 (0 a c









0 Cy G
o o 0 0 > > O H 0 O










(1) ) W J ) 4 ) a)
0 0 0 P4 O O 0 0 41 (0 a
0n Z m ^ ,! cc cc 01






+ e a C C C C O (T> +J











4-4 O I (1) -L O
0 > H H 0 0 0 0 H P 4H 4 4-)
0 0 VI Q VQ V V V U O0





V*O H H H H 0 0 O C







o 1 0 0 0 0 '4 >., >4 >4
.cc -4 -4 a rc u a) 01 0 0 0
o (d co a) 0) Q) 0) o1) 4) o-o r4 rl 4-) 41 4J 1'







0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C 0 0 0 0

r-4 U 4 (U U U U C H O 0 I 0







O ( 0 ( O 0 o 0 (a ( o 0
t) 0 1 0101 0l 01: 0 0 0







01






4-) 4 4 4 r z
01 C C CD C C t













% *0 Q 0 ) U M O O O + +)



H ( > > 4J w u u E > P
) ) 0% 0) L l C Ca 4- 4






















4J 0O(1) r 4 0 to 4)
-U > 4 0 0 4
0 # m C > & m
0 1 0 01 0 0 0 4
SV V H H H H 04 r
0U 0 0 0 01 r l 0rl 1 H H. 0 l
01 4. 4.) .) o o o o 0 0 g

l rl rl > > > > j0 k k l
oI 01 m 0 5i 4 0 0 C C -' 0 5- 5 5 >i
00 0 >i >, 4. 4' -'.-H O H H 3 3 -4 0 0 0 6
( 4 0 0 O O 0 H O 0 0




-H 3 0 0 M 0 0 0 E 4 i 0

M *-4 < s< r' 0 0 0 0 < '



-'.4 011






-4 a) 0' 0c 4 4
5-s 01 CO 4. CO


I 0 4CO
0W C01 0

(04 0 0 5 s 0 0 3 0
-iu w s u s o U u ^ ac












m 0 (ON 0 0 -
S-4 r- r- r- -,
SH H H cO O O CO p O O
S1 5 00 H 3 3




>4f I I
-4C O O TI C C rO 4J 4J 44
m m fu (0 (0 to 0 0 0 0

0 44 44 4 0 0 % 0 % O

0 M M 0 9 z O > > O u u u u
4 O 10 r. M
0 r 1 >1 0 (0 p) p p p $

3 -r4 -4O 3 O t O MC U O U
(Y x .-i oY ci u u u o z z

U .4 $ 54 $4
a ) 2 4 U) 4) u4 0)
U 4-) (U U) 4-) En 4-) WU U 4Ji 4-) U) U) 4-) U)
^ M U) z En z r. En (n U r r. Ut r
) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4-4 f4 z z rL u P z 4 D 4 z z O< z
a)
1O4



4) U) (1) 4 4
U) US) -4 *4




S 0) D 0 (0 4 U 0 0 O
U p4 41 0 0 4 4 4U
0at H q 0 0 0 0 w 0 0


R 4 4 4) 4 4 *WI W IM
U tt 0 0 1 1 (0 AS 9z
U) p) U) 4U) u) 4 P 0
M) >p pU Uo) U U 'l t0 4.) 4.) 0 0 U


) 0 0 ( UQ U 0 0 CI I (i 14

) 0 O 4 4 4 4 4 4 -4 4 P Ou t U
o l U Q) H 3 U4 U H H-i -r-i *
1 ) o 0 (0 tt M 0 M



H 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 p p
3 0 --I -4 *4 *H- 4-4 *- 0 0 0 0
0 c z c o 1V
-, 0 0 <4 4 4 4< 0 4 0 0 0 0





UD



)H *t o



0 U 0
0 U --4 -4 0

a) z (0 Uq 0
0 0) > 00 0
o) UP U I +i
MC~ BUE~U -H
'I, I- t r
U U U) a aa e







deer mice, estrous females, but not diestrous females,

preferred conspecific males (Doty, 1972). Estrous state

in females used as stimulus animals can influence male

preferences. When given a choice between conspecific and

heterospecific females, prairie and meadow vole males

showed no preferences when females were diestrus but

significant preferences when females were estrus (Pierce,

Ferguson, & Dewsbury, 1989). In contrast, it appears that

estrous state does not influence conspecific preferences

by males in two species (brown and collared) of lemmings

(Huck & Banks, 1980a; see also Huck & Banks, 1980b),

cactus mice (Carter & Brand, 1986), and California mice

(Carter & Brand, 1986). It is likely that estrous

condition affects the display of a preference rather than

the ability to discriminate between conspecific and

heterospecific stimulus animals, although no evidence yet

exists to support this hypothesis.

There is evidence to suggest that conspecific

preferences can be influenced by adult experiences. Work

with strain preferences in house mice suggests that adult

social experience may be necessary for the expression of a

conspecific preference (Albonetti & D'Udine, 1986).

The work discussed here has demonstrated conspecific

preferences in laboratory settings. Field investigations

of this phenomenon are scarce. Stoddart (1986) reported

that wood mice and short-tailed voles preferentially

entered conspecifically scented traps over either odorless







or heterospecifically scented traps. These trapping data

supplement the existing laboratory evidence and suggest

that preferences for conspecifics are a real field

phenomenon.



Preferences for Members of the Opposite Sex



Like conspecific preferences, preferences for members

of the opposite sex are a fundamental component of mate

choice. Preferences for heterosexuals have been assessed

by allowing a test animal a choice between 1) a male and a

female conspecific, 2) the odors alone from male and

female conspecifics, or 3) the odor of an opposite-sexed

animal versus a clean, no-odor choice. Both males and

females of almost all species studied have displayed

heterosexual association and mating preferences.

In tests using opposite-sexed conspecifics as

stimuli, preferences have been shown by female laboratory

rats (de Jonge, Burger, van Haaren, Overdijk, & van de

Poll, 1987; de Jonge, Eerland, & van de Poll, 1986; Dudley

& Moss, 1985; Gilman & Westbrook, 1978) and male and

female golden hamsters (Beach, Stern, Carmichael, &

Ranson, 1976; Carmichael, 1980; Landauer, Banks, & Carter,

1977, 1978). Preferences based on odors from opposite-

sexed animals have been demonstrated in male prairie voles

(Taylor & Dewsbury, 1988), female montane voles (Sawrey &

Dewsbury, 1987), male and female meadow voles (Ferkin &







Seamon, 1987; Ferkin, 1988a), male deer mice (Dewsbury,

Ferguson, Hodges, & Taylor, 1986), male and female wood

rats (August, 1978), male brown lemmings (Huck & Banks,

1980a), male collared lemmings (Huck & Banks, 1980a), and

male golden hamsters (Landauer, Banks, & Carter, 1978).

Comparisons between a heterosexual odor and a control

or no-odor condition have shown generally consistent

preferences for the heterosexual odors in several species

including deer mice (Doty, 1973 for females but not for

males; Dewsbury et al., 1986 for males and females),

golden hamsters (Gregory, Engel, & Pfaff, 1975; Johnston,

1974; Kwan & Johnston, 1980; Murphy, 1973 for males;

Johnston, 1979 for females), and male laboratory rats

(Lydell & Doty, 1972), but not in either male or female

white-footed mice (Doty, 1973).

Drickamer (1984) examined capture rates of deer mice

and white-footed mice in traps baited with either male or

female odors and noted a "strong heterosexual odor

preference" (p. 701) by males and females of both species.

Similar findings from trap entry data have been reported

for short-tailed voles by Stoddart (1986).

There is evidence to suggest that social and sexual

experience influences heterosexual preferences. Sexually

experienced male laboratory rats preferred female urine

odor over distilled water odor, whereas sexually

inexperienced males did not (Lydell & Doty, 1972). An

influence of sexual experience has also been noted for







male laboratory rats (Pfaff & Pfaffmann, 1969), female

laboratory rats (de Jonge et al., 1987), and male montane

voles (Sawrey & Dewsbury, 1987). Further, socially

isolated male laboratory rats exhibited decreased

preferences for investigating female odors compared to

group-housed male laboratory rats (Brown, 1985). In

contrast, there appears to be no effect of sexual

experience in golden hamsters (Gregory et al., 1975;

Johnston, 1974; Landauer et al., 1978), collared lemmings

(Huck & Banks, 1984), or brown lemmings (Huck & Banks,

1984).

Similarly, reproductive condition may play a role in

heterosexual preferences in laboratory rats.

Gonadectomized laboratory rats of both sexes showed no

preferences (Brown, 1977, 1978). In ovariectomized female

laboratory rats, injections of testosterone propionate or

estradiol benzoate significantly increased partner

preference for males over estrous females (de Jonge et

al., 1986). Meadow voles of both sexes exhibited

preferences for heterospecific odor during the breeding

season. During the nonbreeding season, females preferred

the odors of other females, and males showed no preference

(Ferkin & Seamon, 1987). Juveniles of this species

preferred opposite-sexed adult conspecifics, regardless of

the season in which they were tested (Ferkin, 1988b).







Preferences for Different Reproductive Conditions



Male Preferences for Estrous Females



The data concerning male preferences for estrous over

diestrous females have recently been reviewed by Taylor

and Dewsbury (1988, in press). These authors note that

relatively few species have been studied and species

differences exist: "Males of some species do not prefer

estrous females, and males of other species display

preferences only under particular conditions" (Taylor &

Dewsbury, in press, p. 3).

Species in which males have shown a preference

include laboratory rats (Carr, Loeb, & Dissinger, 1965;

Carr, Wylie, & Loeb, 1970; Lydell & Doty, 1972; Merkx,

1984; Merkx, Slob, & van der Werff Ten Bosch, 1988; Pfaff

& Pfaffmann, 1969; Stern, 1970; but see Brown, 1977),

desert woodrats (Fleming, Chee, & Vaccarino, 1981), Indian

desert gerbils (Kumari & Prakash, 1984), Mongolian gerbils

(Block, Volpe, & Hayes, 1981), house mice (Hayashi &

Kimura, 1974; Rose & Drickamer, 1975), brown lemmings

(Huck & Banks, 1984), collared lemmings (Huck & Banks,

1984), and prairie voles (Taylor and Dewsbury, 1988).

Males of two species, deer mice (Dewsbury et al., 1986)

and montane voles (Taylor and Dewsbury, in press),

apparently do not prefer estrous females over diestrous

females.






Male golden hamsters have not shown preferences when

the choice is between an estrous and a diestrous female

(Johnston, 1980; Kwan & Johnston, 1980; Landauer et al.,

1978), but do show a preference when odors from soiled

bedding are used as the stimuli (Johnston, 1980; Huck,

Lisk, Kim, & Evans, 1989), or if the estrous female

receives physical contact from another male prior to

testing (Carmichael, 1980). Male golden hamsters

discriminate and prefer an intact female over a

vaginectomized one both when odors cues alone are present

and when the stimulus females are present but physical

contact is prevented (Kwan & Johnston, 1980). Even in

this study, male golden hamsters did not exhibit a

preference for estrus versus diestrus in either intact or

vaginectomized females.

There is evidence to suggest that prior sexual

experience by the male may be necessary for the

demonstration of a preference in most, but not all,

species (see Taylor & Dewsbury, 1988, in press).

Reproductive condition provides a similar influence.

Castrated male laboratory rats did not show any

preference, but implants of dihydrotestosterone (DHT)

restored estrous preferences in such laboratory rats

(Merkx, 1984).

Estrous preferences appear to be at least partially

mediated by vaginal bacterial flora. Estrous female

laboratory rats treated with a vaginal antibiotic solution







were less attractive to males than were untreated estrous

laboratory rats (Merkx et al., 1988).



Female Preference for Intact Versus Castrated Males



Female preference for males of different reproductive

condition has been assessed in five species by giving

females a choice between intact and castrated males.

Female house mice preferred intact over castrated males

when odors alone provided the stimulus (Scott & Pfaff,

1970) and when intact and castrated males were used as

stimulus animals (Hayashi & Kimari, 1978). Female montane

voles, when presented with tethered intact and castrated

males, preferentially associated and copulated with the

intact males (Webster, Williams, & Dewsbury, 1982).

Estrous Mongolian gerbils likewise preferred intact males

over castrated males (Agren & Meyerson, 1977, 1978).

Female golden hamsters preferred the odors of intact males

over the odors of castrated males and of females

(Johnston, 1979). This preference was expressed most

strongly by estrous females, but was also shown by

diestrous and lactating females. Pregnant females showed

"a high degree of generalized interest in odors of

conspecifics but are not differentially attracted to

potential sexual partners" (Johnston, 1979, p. 33).

Laboratory rats have been the most studied species

with respect to this preference. Experienced females of







this species, regardless of their estrous state, can

discriminate (Carr & Caul, 1962) and prefer intact males

(Drewett, 1973; Dudley & Moss, 1985) and their odors

(Brown, 1977; Carr et al., 1965; Taylor, Haller, & Regan,

1982; Taylor, Regan, & Haller, 1983) over castrated males.

Inexperienced females prefer intact male odors only when

they are in estrus. This relationship has been

demonstrated in adult (Carr et al., 1965) and immature

(36-54 days old) female laboratory rats (Carr, Wylie, &

Loeb, 1970). Ovariectomized female laboratory rats fail

to demonstrate any preferences for intact males (Brown,

1977).

Female preference for intact males is almost surely

mediated by androgen levels of the stimulus animals.

Drewett and Spiteri (1979) injected castrated male

laboratory rats with either dihydrotestosterone (DHT-

castrated males smell like intact males), DHT and

estradiol benzoate (EB- castrated males smell and behave

like intact males), or nothing. Preferences assessed by

speed of approach in a straight runway apparatus indicated

that DHT-EB males were preferred over DHT males, and DHT

males were preferred over castrated controls. In another

study, exogenous injections of testosterone propionate

(TP) increased the attractiveness of castrates and

eliminated a female preference for intact males (Taylor et

al., 1982). The amount of TP injected affected

preferences; female laboratory rats consistently preferred







to urine mark in the area vacated by the male with higher

testosterone levels (Taylor et al., 1982). These studies

support the conclusion that females are choosing based on

"changes in androgen-dependent urinary byproducts" (Taylor

et al., 1983, p. 43).

A related female choice that has been examined is a

preference for sexually experienced males over sexually

naive males. To date, such a preference has only been

reported for female laboratory rats in studies using

stimulus animals (Gilman & Westbrook, 1978; Hill & Thomas,

1973) and odors alone (Taylor et al., 1983). Female

golden hamsters showed no preference for sexually

experienced males over naive ones, but did choose males

primed by contact with an estrous female immediately prior

to testing over unprimed males (Carmichael, 1980).

Sexually inexperienced prairie voles showed no preference

when given a choice between a tethered sexually

experienced and a tethered naive male (Pizzuto, 1988).

Examination of female preferences for experienced males is

a rich topic for future study.



Preferences for Dominant Individuals



Females of several species prefer dominant males or

their odors over subordinate males. Typically, males are

classified as dominant/subordinate based upon the outcome

of staged aggressive interactions, then females are






allowed a choice of a dominant and subordinate male (or

their odors) for association and/or copulation. In

studies using tether choice testing, preferential

association and copulation with the dominant male have

been demonstrated in laboratory rats (Carr, Kimmel,

Anthony, & Schlocker, 1982), brown lemmings (Huck & Banks,

1982a), golden hamsters (Brown, Humm, & Fischer, 1988;

Huck, Lisk, Allison, & Van Dongen, 1986), and prairie

voles (Shapiro & Dewsbury, 1986), but not montane voles

(Shapiro & Dewsbury, 1986). Female house mice associated

preferentially with subordinates but copulated

preferentially with dominant males (Parmigiani, Brunoni, &

Pasquali, 1982). In experiments where copulation was

prevented, preferential visiting of dominant males has

been shown by female prairie voles (Shapiro & Dewsbury,

1986) and female bank voles (Hoffmeyer, 1982), but not

female montane voles (Shapiro & Dewsbury, 1986).

Preferences for dominant males based on odor cues alone

have been shown by brown lemmings (Huck & Banks, 1982b;

Huck, Banks, & Wang, 1981), bank voles (Hoffmeyer, 1982),

house mice (Jones & Nowell, 1974), and golden hamsters

(White, Fischer, & Meunier, 1984a, 1986; Huck, Lisk, &

Gore, 1985).

In two species, brown lemmings (Huck et al., 1981)

and golden hamsters (White, Fischer, & Meunier, 1984b),

estrous females preferred the odors of certain males

before dominance testing was begun. Preferred males







subsequently emerged as the dominant males following

testing. This effect is most probably mediated by

androgen by-products in the urine as several researchers

have established that urine odors, in some way, indicate

social status (e.g., Jones & Nowell, 1973, 1974; Lombardi

& Vandenbergh, 1977; Maruniak, Desjardins, & Bronson,

1977). Dominance may also be indicated by the increase in

scent marking by dominant males (Huck et al., 1985) and

the reduction in scent marking by subordinates

(Desjardins, Maruniak, & Bronson, 1973).

As is the case for many preferences, the estrous

condition of the female influences the preference for

dominant males. Whereas estrous brown lemmings preferred

dominant males, diestrous females preferred the odors of

subordinate males (Huck et al., 1981). Similarly,

diestrous golden hamsters preferred the odors of

submissive males (White et al., 1984a), although a

replication of this work did not confirm the initial

findings, as diestrous females preferred control odors

over either dominant or subordinate odors (White et al.,

1986).



Preferences Based on Genetic Differences



The optimal balance between inbreeding and

outbreeding has been discussed by Bateson (1983). Bateson

noted that while the evidence for optimal outbreeding is






"still relatively meagre" (p. 273), an analysis of the

costs associated with inbreeding and outbreeding suggests

a great importance to finding a mate that is optimally

related.

Dewsbury (1988a) has recently reviewed the literature

on kinship-based mating preferences. Five paradigms for

the study of this aspect of mate choice were presented,

but it was noted that the most valid paradigm, choice

tests permitting actual copulation, has received very

limited use.

Male house mice (D'Udine & Partridge, 1981; Gilder &

Slater, 1978; Hayashi & Kimura, 1983; Winn & Vestal, 1986;

Yanai & McClearn, 1972) have exhibited preferences for

unrelated individuals (see Dewsbury, 1988a). Barnard and

Fitzsimons (1988) showed that male house mice preferred

individuals less closely related than half siblings.

Whether female house mice show a similar preference

is difficult to assess. In studies where female house

mice did show a preference, the estrous state of the

female was artificially induced via the injection of

exogenous hormones (Winn & Vestal, 1986; Yanai & McClearn,

1972) or not assessed (D'Udine & Partridge, 1981; Gilder &

Slater, 1978). Hayashi and Kimura (1983) and Barnard and

Fitzsimons (1988) noted no female preference in this

species but again estrous state was not controlled in

either study.







Mongolian gerbils (Agren, 1984a) and common voles

(Bolhuis, Strijkstra, Moor, & van der Lende, 1988) have

been reported to show a preference for unrelated

individuals. In contrast, male laboratory rats preferred

female siblings in the work of Deni, Vocino, and Epstein

(1980). Much more work is needed in this area before

definitive conclusions can be reached (see Dewsbury,

1988a).

Incest avoidance and reproductive suppression provide

supporting evidence that animals prefer to mate with

unrelated individuals. In laboratory studies, sibling

pairs housed together generally show a reduction in

breeding compared to non-sibling pairs housed together.

Species in which reproductive suppression and inbreeding

avoidance have been demonstrated include prairie voles

(Batzli, Getz, & Hurley, 1977; Carter & Getz, 1985;

Gavish, Hofmann, & Getz, 1984), gray-tailed voles (Boyd &

Blaustein, 1985), pine voles (Schadler, 1983), California

voles (Batzli et al., 1977), deer mice (Dewsbury, 1982b;

Hill, 1974), cactus mice (Dewsbury, 1982b), white-footed

mice (Wolff & Lundy, 1985; Wolff, Lundy, & Baccus, 1988),

Mongolian gerbils (Agren, 1981, 1984b), laboratory rats

(Hepper, 1983 [quoted in Hepper, 1986]), and house mice

(Yanai & McClearn, 1972). Meadow voles (Batzli et al.,

1977) and Djungarian hamsters (Ferguson & Dewsbury, 1987)

apparently do not show inbreeding avoidance.







In addition to mate choice based on kinship and

degree of relatedness, muroid rodents may base a choice of

mates on other genetic factors. Work with inbred house

mice suggests that the major histocompatibility complex

(MHC) of genes influences mate choice in this species (see

Beauchamp, Yamazaki, Bard, & Boyse, 1988; Yamazaki et al.,

1976, 1988). Males of most strains prefer estrous females

of different MHC types; a preference that may maintain MHC

heterozygosity (Beauchamp et al., 1988) and is affected by

rearing experience (Yamazaki et al., 1988).

Mating preferences of house mice may also be

influenced by the T locus. In tests of social and

association preferences, male and female house mice showed

consistent preferences for individuals not carrying the

lethal t-allele (Lenington, 1983), regardless of their own

genotype (Egid & Lenington, 1985; Lenington & Egid, 1985).

Preferences based on t-alleles and MHC genes are the best

examples of choice based solely on genetic quality of

potential mates.



Preferences for Familiar and Novel Conspecifics



The complexity and variety of mammalian chemical

signals are sufficient to provide individuals with unique

odors that provide cues for individual recognition

(Johnston, 1983). Individual recognition of conspecifics

plays an important mediating role in the social







interactions of many species. Dominant-subordinate

relations, territorial interactions, parent-sibling

relations, and mating encounters are affected by prior

experience with the same individuals and the outcomes of

these interactions may be contingent upon individual

recognition. The role of odors in individual recognition

has been summarized by Brown (1979) and Halpin (1980) who

note the many mammalian species in which there are

recognizable individual differences in body odors of

conspecifics.

The typical laboratory paradigm for assessing

individual recognition involves testing subjects for a

preference for familiar versus novel heterosexual

conspecifics. Table 4 provides a listing of species in

which individual recognition has been studied with this

method. The data are inconsistent in many instances. For

instance, depending on the study, female laboratory rats

either prefer the familiar male (Carr et al., 1979),

prefer the novel male (Krames, 1970), or show no

preference at all (Carr, Krames, & Costanzo, 1970; Krames

& Mastromatteo, 1973). Data from male collared lemmings

also are inconsistent (see Table 4), although this

discrepancy may be attributable to different testing

conditions. Further, there are interspecific and

intersexual differences in the display of preferences.

There may be differences in male and female mating














0
0


* i







TI
0



*H
44












u
-4
0



a)
0






to











0





-4
0
z44









0)










0
4-1

,I


aO
co


CO


04





C
a








9)






-4
*-4
r4

54




-4
0
O
0





0
r-l


a) a) a) 0)
rr4 r-l r r-

) a) a) 0 ) 0
r4 (4 S Z h S


)











a)
4






C4


4
0)



0)
<
0)
5-1


*H
r-4
4-il
$()
R3


i41 ,--4 r1 ,-I 4-*

-4 *- -4- -4-
C C C C C
4 I 4


H H


4 0 4<
C a C


(0
a)
*-'

0
0
















CO
a\
I-
r l
H
to )



4) r)

4 (0 r-4
x u P4


)









a)
CO
0)
a)
M
0
44
a)
>1l


U'
H
0
-H)










to
x








0)
en
U)


(UI








I


a) Q) a) Q)
0 w0 0 0
0 0 0 0












0
r-l






*H
0




0
O
C
O


0 0 0 0
r~z zi


0 0
o C
0 z

2 2


0 0
0 0


0) 0 0) 0


U) a) Q ) a)
4 fj4 r4 r4
,-I ,-. ,-


1.4 .4
0 (0 ( 00
M* -4 *M-
l-I r- r -4 l-i
* ll 0) -4 -r a) a)
(0 0 0 A0 0 0





.-f -r H 0 0 "C
C C C 3 0 4
4 04 0
r a, 0~ r u o







strategies in laboratory rats, brown lemmings, and gerbils

(see Table 4).

The pattern displayed generally correlates well with

mating system. Monogamous species, such as prairie voles

(Carter, Getz, & Cohen-Parsons, 1986) and Mongolian

gerbils (Agren, 1984c), have generally shown preferences

for familiar individuals, whereas polygamous species have

preferred novel partners or shown no preference. Carr,

Krames, and Costanzo (1970) have suggested that prior

sexual experience influences familiarity preferences.

Male laboratory rats given extensive polygamous experience

preferred the odor of novel laboratory rats, whereas

"monogamous" males showed no preference.



Preferences for Unmated versus Mated Individuals



Mating with recently mated individuals represents a

potential risk for both males and females (see below).

Accordingly, both sexes should have a similar mating

strategy for this criterion; namely, an avoidance of

recently mated individuals and a corresponding preference

for unmated individuals.

Preferences for unmated individuals have been tested

in several species of muroid rodents. Male and female

laboratory rats respond preferentially to the odors from

fresh individuals over those that had mated for one

ejaculation (Krames & Mastromatteo, 1973). These authors







concluded that in laboratory rats it "would appear that

during copulation, 2 crucial odor variables to which the

male responds are freshness and novelty" (p. 533). In

contrast, Zucker and Wade (1968) noted that male

laboratory rats indiscriminately mated when fresh and

mated females were presented. Sexually satiated male

golden hamsters likewise showed no preference when given a

choice between fresh and mated anesthetized females in a

lordosis position (Johnston & Rasmussen, 1984). Female

montane voles showed no preferences for unmated males in

tests permitting copulation and in tests where copulation

was prevented (Sawrey, 1983). However, female golden

hamsters discriminated and preferred rested anesthetized

males over recently mated anesthetized ones (Huck, Lisk,

Parente, & Principato, 1986). Male brown lemmings and

male collared lemmings preferred the odors of unmated over

mated females (Huck, Banks, & Coopersmith, 1984). This

preference was shown by sexually experienced males and by

sexually satiated males, but not by sexually naive males.

Male preference for unmated over mated females has

been demonstrated in prairie voles. Ferguson, Fuentes,

Sawrey, and Dewsbury (1986) presented male prairie voles

with a choice between two females, one which had recently

been mated to a nonexperimental male for one ejaculation

and one that had not. Males preferred unmated females in

both tether tests and anesthetization tests. Procedures

were then repeated using montane voles. No preferences







were exhibited in the tether tests; only a weak preference

was shown in anesthetization trials.



Other Preferences



Blonde coat color is a simple recessive trait in

prairie voles. The blonde color morph is extremely rare

in wild prairie vole populations, attributable to the

recessive nature of this trait and increased

susceptibility to predation. Getz and Pizzuto (1987)

conducted a tether choice study with blonde and normal-

colored voles as stimulus animals. Results revealed a

preference by each color morph for individuals of the

opposite coat color. These authors speculate that such

preferences "contribute to suppression of expression of

the blonde allele in prairie vole populations" (p. 230).

Edwards and Barnard (1987) infected female house mice

with larvae of the parasitic Trichinella spiralis, then

staged encounters with uninfected males. Sexually

experienced males investigated infected females more and

were less likely to associate and mate with them compared

to males paired with uninfected females. Sexually

inexperienced males responded similarly to infected and

uninfected females. In a follow-up study, infected and

uninfected male house mice were grouped together (Edwards,

1988). Social behaviors by infected house mice were

reduced, whereas investigation of infected house mice by







uninfected house mice was increased. Although these

studies have not shown directly a preference for healthy

individuals, the results suggest such a relationship (see

also Hamilton & Zuk, 1982).

Fischer, Olsen, & Meunier (1985) presented outbred

female golden hamsters with odors from inbred and outbred

males. Significant preferences for outbred males were

noted for estrous females; diestrous females exhibited no

preferences. If these results are generalizable, then

female mate selection may provide a further advantage to

outbreeding.

Rodents of many species produce ultrasonic

vocalizations (USVs) prior to, during, and after

copulation (see Pierce, Sawrey, & Dewsbury, 1989 for a

review). Golden hamsters of both sexes approached natural

and synthetic ultrasounds produced in one arm of a Y-maze

(Floody & Pfaff, 1977). Association preferences for

vocalizing males over devocalized males have been reported

in estrous and diestrous house mice (Pomerantz, Nunez, &

Bean, 1983). In a similar design, female laboratory rats

did not differ in their association times, but did direct

more solicitation behavior (darting) to the intact males

(Thomas, Howard, & Barfield, 1982). Production of USVs

may be a possible preference-based criterion.

In two-choice tests, females have expressed

preferences for one male in the absence of any

experimental manipulation of the stimulus animals (French,







Fitzpatrick, & Law, 1972; Taylor & Weiss, 1987; Webster et

al., 1982) and the bases for these preferences remain

unclear. Preferred males achieved higher levels of

copulatory activity than non-preferred males (Taylor &

Weiss, 1987; Webster et al., 1982), although no evidence

yet exists to suggest there is a reproductive advantage in

terms of pregnancy initiation and successful production of

a litter. Still, the conclusion is clear. The

identification of the criteria by which choices are made,

and the relationship of these criteria to other variables

such as mating system and reproductive success, is still

incomplete.



Summary of Association/Mating Preferences



Table 5 provides a summary listing of preferences

exhibited in a variety of species. Muroid rodents choose

mates based on a surprisingly large number of criteria.

It appears that variations in many diverse characteristics

provide the bases for mate selection by these species.

The criteria for mating preferences can be classified

into two types. First, "identification" criteria identify

individuals as potential and appropriate mating partners

but provide no assessment of individuals that fit these

criteria. Examples of identification criteria include

preferences for conspecifics and members of the opposite

sex. Discrimination of these criteria are necessary for





41


0
r-l
54 0






Da U
0



O) VO 4. 4.
a) a) *
to o o*




U) > 0 *
o0 t:o Z P 4 -4




0 -4


3 O C3









-,0 2 3 .J
S0

0 r0 OO
a) a) r4l







u *
a )
a 0) 0

0) U)
C 41 1
0 a u 0
o u 0 p



0 a
to x o< a4


C E 0 0 0 0 0)


0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
U U Z U U U Z U Z U U



x
(4.4 w)
0 to En

0

-4g CD )
4. 0) 0) CD
>D >0 0


LO > t 0) 0) 00
4) t r4 (0 4 0
4U 4 *H V a
) 0 c to z
0 p O4) (0
E-4U ) z 1 0 z)









o o

P UlU) U3)
0 > > .,1
3 0


S 4.) 4 4.) 4



z :D
0 0 0 0










0 o
0 00 00 00


r-4
p) r. 40 40 4) 41










U 0




0)


4.4
S9*

S0 0 0 0
o Vi 2 4 a [ a a































0 000 0 0 0
S U U U u
















~4 44
a C

















C3 0















0 *H 0 C
oD 0
U) to
14-



























00 0 R 0
U0 0 rV

0u 0 :












4 0 0 p 0 0
Q)U UU ) U

























r-4 r-4 r-1
4) a) *.-4
> > e
0 0 it
z z Z4




















.1 4-),
I1 (n C
mw H


0 0
u u


a rZ z F4


CD


M .M
C H


0 4
CD

* M
0
O 3j
O E-4


4 E4 z


4.)
I-

4)


r4

0 4)
1-1


X
a)
C,)








a)
U
a,




44




U0 0 0
C 0-4 0
cp a o c 00
o r- U r- *H U
O B I CM I 3



0 00 I0
04 0 0 0 0



0)
U \ r
04 0 *r 0 0
0 m4 OO









r6 0 0

-4))



44J
0 0q
* \













O0
0 N 0 N
0, O) U
o 0 $4 0 $U 0

0U N H N H








0 0 0 0 0 0
U U U Z U U




U)


(0

0 0)<



$ 4 0 >1
) 0 U )
0
&i 0ao>
























































a a N
0 0 0
0 0 Z
s &U


0 0 0
O Z Z
O a &


0 0 0 0

O O Z 0
z


0

40
a) a)
-4--


o0 0
a C) 0

Sa 0
U) a)-e


0) X '-
U,,


0
4)


0
0

to
N 0)
V 4-)

4 R


*-
0

r-4

X X
U)
Cor


x
0)
co








U)
--4
0












4 1
0
4-i3
o I

C.

0






0 0 0
O 0





0 N r4 0 .
oo A 4
H III 4
4) w rq r:i
-,o -4
c 0 to
44-4 ) 0
4) W 04

S-4
C II r I
)*4 *4 C
-4r


0 k 0 4
0 0 1 II0



0 UU O

En0 0 0
o *P P4 0 4.1 Q
4 r) a e

S0 II *H 0)



00 i ao

d4 a W I
0 m 0 0 0 U
0 C 0P 1 04 C
a O 0000 4.



4* 0
II C
X 0C O
0 M 4 0
a) .*. (0
0 4) 0 0

to C ai o


0 O 11 4

0 v-I 0 O







successful mating, and as would be expected, most (but not

all) species have shown clear discrimination and

preferences based on identification criteria.

The second type of criteria, "evaluative" criteria,

provide criteria by which individuals can be assessed for

quality. Here, individuals may be appropriate mating

partners but variations in important characteristics make

some individuals better potential mates than others.

Characteristics such as dominance rank, familiarity to the

choosing animal, and unmated status are examples of

evaluative criteria. Whereas most species display clear

preferences based on identification criteria, there is

greater interspecies variation in the display of

preferences based on evaluative criteria.

The classification scheme proposed here is

arbitrary, but may have utility in aiding understanding of

interspecific variation in mating preferences. Variation

in social and mating systems should affect preferences for

evaluative, but not identification, criteria. Preferences

for evaluative criteria also should provide an indication

of the "choosiness" of each sex in various species.

There is no reason to expect that all preferences are

mutually exclusive and dependent on uniquely associated

cues. For instance, androgen by-products in the urine

provide information concerning an animal's sex,

reproductive condition, and dominance status. A simple

strategy of attraction to stronger levels of androgen







odors would account for female preferences for several

criteria. Similarly, prior association mediates not only

a preference for novel versus familiar, but also

apparently for kin based preferences.

It is apparent from this review that preferences are

not "hard-wired" components of mate selection. Many

preferences are directly influenced by early experience

(see also Bateson, 1978; D'Udine & Alleva, 1983) and are

labile even in adulthood. In many instances, expression

of mating preferences is a function of the individual's

reproductive condition. Differences as a function of

season, prior sexual experience, and female's estrous

condition have been noted for one or more criteria.



Future Directions



The work of many researchers has yielded valuable

insights into mate choice by muroid rodents. It is

apparent that more work is needed to elucidate further the

importance of these criteria for all rodent species.

Additionally, other aspects of mate choice need to be

studied. A few aspects can be mentioned here.

First, the relationship of association preferences to

mating preferences needs to be assessed more carefully.

Studies which have used both of these measures to assess

mate choice have generally found an agreement between time

spent in association and amount of copulatory behavior.







However, association preferences and mating preferences

may differ for some species in some instances (e.g.,

Parmigiani et al., 1982). Interpretations of association

preferences as indicative of mating preferences should be

made with caution, until this relationship is assessed

more fully.

Little work on physical characteristics such as size

and age has been conducted. Age in particular is a

criterion for choice in such diverse groups as primates

(Robinson, 1982), feral pigeons (Burley & Moran, 1979),

crickets (Zuk, 1988), and butterflies (Wiklund & Forsberg,

1985). Age may be a criterion for mate choice in rodents.

There is existing research for laboratory rats which

indicates deleterious effects of age on pregnancy

initiation and cycling in females (Davis, Gray, &

Dewsbury, 1977; Hendricks, Lehman, & Oswalt, 1979) and on

the potency of the male's ejaculates (Toner & Adler,

1985). Swanson, Desjardins, and Turek (1982) failed to

find significant decrements in copulatory behavior in aged

male golden hamsters, but Huck, Lisk, and Guyton (1988)

have reported that aged females of this species required

greater amounts of vaginal stimulation for the initiation

of pregnancy. The effects of age on mating preferences

merit further attention.

Future research with pregnant or lactating females

also holds great promise, as it can be argued that females

in the field are most frequently in this condition.






Drickamer (1989) has examined odor preferences in pregnant

female house mice. During the early days of gestation,

females preferred the odors of the stud male and avoided

the odors of a strange male. As gestation continued, odor

preferences were reduced. Females avoided both male odors

toward the end of gestation. Avoidance of males and their

odors has also been noted for prairie vole females during

gestation (Prater & Rigley, 1982), although methodological

issues make this interpretation subject to caution.

Pregnant female golden hamsters approached conspecific

odors from intact and castrated males, but did not prefer

either odor (Johnston, 1979).














RELATIONSHIP OF MATE CHOICE TO MATING SYSTEM


In this section, the mating systems characteristic of

prairie and montane voles are described. Mate choice is

then discussed in relation to their mating system.

Finally, a rationale is provided for why monogamous

females should prefer unmated males as mating partners.



Mating Systems of Prairie and Montane Voles



Mating Systems



Mating systems have been defined as the "ensemble of

behaviors and physical adaptations to mating, as well as

some of the social consequences of these behaviors"

(Vehrencamp & Bradbury, 1984, p. 251). This behavioral

ensemble reflects ecological and physiological constraints

on the species, and produces a mating system

characteristic of most members of a given population

(Dewsbury, 1988b).

One type of mating system, monogamy, is

characteristic of less than three percent of mammalian

species (Kleiman, 1977). Dewsbury (1988b) has proposed







that monogamy can be defined in terms of three dimensions.

The three dimensions are exclusivity of mating, joint

parental care, and preferential or exclusive association

between a particular male and female. Animals are

considered monogamous if they meet two of the three

dimensions.

Although other definitions vary, they are generally

based on one or more of these dimensions. Thus,

Wittenberger and Tilson (1980) propose that monogamy is "a

prolonged association and essentially exclusive mating

relationship between one male and one female" (p. 198).

Wickler and Seibt (1983) distinguish between monogamy as a

social system and monogamy as a mating system. They argue

that the latter is defined by "exclusivity of copulation"

(p. 37). Kleiman (1977) does not provide a specific

definition for monogamy, but proposes that a useful

distinction can be made between obligate and facultative

monogamy. Obligate monogamy is defined by family unit

cohesiveness, biparental care, and exclusivity of mating.

Facultative monogamy occurs at low densities and is

characterized by reduced pair association, minimal

paternal care, and more frequent extra-pair copulations.

Mating systems can vary across species within a

genus. For example, voles of the genus Microtus display

substantial interspecies variation in mating systems.

These species are widespread in North America and found in

most grassland and tundra communities (Rose & Birney,







1985). Typically, microtine rodents live sympatrically

with other mammalian species, but are usually the most

numerous in any given region in which they occur.

Microtine species display a range of different social and

mating systems, due in part to the diversity of the

ecological habitats which different species occupy. The

Microtus species of the present study, prairie voles and

montane voles, represent two diverse points in that range.



Mating System of Prairie Voles



Prairie voles, Microtus ochroqaster, evolved in the

stable habitats of prairie grasslands of North America,

habitats suitable for the formation of monogamous mating

systems (Getz, Hoffman, & Jike, 1986). Diet consists

mainly of succulent forbs (broadleaf herbaceous plants)

and grasses (Getz, 1985). Forbs are critical for survival

and reproduction (Cole & Batzli, 1979), and their low

availability and dispersed distribution provide the

ecological conditions for territoriality, and, in the case

of prairie voles, monogamy (Ostfeld, 1985).

Extensive field and laboratory research has

established that prairie voles exhibit a monogamous mating

system under most ecological conditions (see Carter &

Getz, 1985; Carter et al., 1986; Getz & Carter, 1980).

Trapping data have provided strong evidence for continued

male-female associations. Captures of male-female pairs







were frequent and equally likely during the breeding and

non-breeding seasons (Getz, Carter, & Gavish, 1981).

Male-female pairs were frequently recaptured together,

some as late as 20 weeks after the initial capture.

Hofmann, Getz, & Gavish (1984) tracked heterosexual pairs

via radiotelemetry. Results indicated that 11 or 12 pairs

remained together and shared a common nesting burrow

during the 10-day tracking period. Trapping data derived

from nests of two field populations indicated that 50% of

281 breeding units were monogamous (defined as a single

resident male and female pair); only 23% contained more

that one male or one female (Getz & Hofmann, 1986).

Population density strongly influenced mating system in

this study, with monogamous units significantly more

frequent at low population densities that at high

population densities, although monogamous units were the

most frequent at all densities. Visits by nonfamily

members were infrequent.

Laboratory studies corroborate the field data.

Family pairs in a semi-natural environment displayed

cohabitation of a common nest and exhibited biparental

care of the young (Gruder-Adams & Getz, 1985). Biparental

care by prairie voles has also been documented by other

researchers (Hartung & Dewsbury, 1979; McGuire & Novak,

1984; Oliveras & Novak, 1986). Thomas and Birney (1979)

established 27 vole societies of varying sex ratios in

laboratory pens. All but one of these societies mated







monogamously and displayed extensive biparental care to

offspring. In related work, Gavish, Carter, and Getz

(1981) showed that reproductive success, as measured by

number of pups born, was significantly higher in

monogamous pairs than in experimentally-created breeding

units consisting of three animals.

Preferential associations between pair members have

been assessed in a series of experimental studies. In

staged dyadic encounters, aggressive behaviors were

significantly greater between a breeder animal and an

unfamiliar, opposite-sexed animal than between members of

established pairs (Getz et al., 1981). Shapiro (1987)

examined rates of contact in dyadic encounters and

concluded that prairie voles exhibit "contact proneness".

In multiple female situations, male prairie voles

preferentially mated with a single female (Fuentes &

Dewsbury, 1984). Mating preferences for familiar mates

(Newman & Halpin, 1988; Shapiro, Austin, Ward, & Dewsbury,

1986) and unmated individuals (Ferguson et al., 1986) have

also been reported for this species and are indicative of

a monogamous mating system.

Together, these data provide strong evidence that

prairie voles mate monogamously under low to moderate

population densities. Laboratory evidence has been well

established for the three dimensions of monogamy proposed

by Dewsbury 1988b); exclusivity of mating, joint parental

care, and association. Field evidence has been






established for the latter two of the three dimensions.

Dewsbury (1981) suggested nine correlates of monogamy.

Prairie voles scored highly on this Monogamy Scale.

Evidence for monogamy for prairie voles meets the

definition established by other researchers (i.e.,

Kleiman, 1977; Wittenberger & Tilson, 1980).



Mating System of Montane Voles



The behavior of montane voles, in contrast, is more

consistent with a polygamous mating system. Montane voles

are native to mountain valley regions of the northwestern

United States (Jannett, 1980). These regions contain

sedges and grasses, but the feeding habits of this species

have not been fully established (Ostfeld, 1985). It is

known that a critical nutritional requirement for

reproductive activation is 6-MBOA, a compound found in

green vegetation (Sanders, Gardner, Berger, & Negus, 1981;

Berger, Negus, Sanders, & Gardner, 1981).

Field work has established that male and female

montane voles are territorial (Jannett, 1978, 1980), but

the size and shape of territories differ between males and

females. Male territories are larger and overlap the

ranges of several females (Jannett, 1980). Although a

male and female may be in close association during female

estrus, there is no indication of pairs nesting together

(Jannett, 1982). In addition, in instances of female







dispersal, males do not follow but rather remain behind.

There is little effect of density upon the mating system.

Polygamy occurs at all population levels except very low

densities where facultative monogamy generally occurs

(Jannett, 1980).

Laboratory evidence confirms the polygamous

tendencies of montane voles. As noted above, montane

voles show little preference for familiar (Shapiro et al.,

1986) or unmated individuals (Ferguson et al., 1986).

Male-female dyadic encounters in a seminatural enclosure

revealed that montane voles show low levels of contact

proneness and high rates of aggression (Shapiro, 1987).

Males in multiple female test situations copulated with

more females and distributed ejaculations more equally

than did prairie voles (Fuentes & Dewsbury, 1984).

Montane voles scored toward the polygamy end of the

Monogamy Scale of Dewsbury (1981).



Summary of Mating Systems of Prairie and Montane Voles



Different forms of social organization and mating

system result from environmental regulation and stable

differences in behavior. These factors have led to

prairie voles exhibiting a territorial, monogamous system

at low to moderate population densities, and montane voles

exhibiting a territorial, polygamous system at most

population densities.









Mating Systems and Mate Choice



The mating system characteristic of a given

population has implications for the mating preferences

exhibited by individuals in that population. It has been

argued that mate choice should be more pronounced in

monogamous species than polygamous ones (Kleiman, 1977;

O'Donald, 1983). Preferences related to a potential

mate's ability to provide resources and parental care

should be critical for monogamous animals, as should

characteristics that identify a potential mate as

"available"; i.e., not already a member of a long-term,

stable association. In polygamous species where the male

does not provide resources or parental care, preferences

based on these characteristics would be expected to be

less critical.

One example of a characteristic from the latter

category is the recency of mating by the potential mate.

Wittenberger and Tilson (1980) have argued that the

ability to ascertain the "true mated status of potential

mates" (p. 199) represents one of three critical

preconditions for the evolution of monogamous mating

systems. Although their argument was for female choice,

the ability to detect mated status should be critical for

both sexes. For males displaying high male parental

effort (MPE), pairing with a recently mated female leads






to the dangers of sperm competition and cuckoldry (see

Parker, 1970). For females of a species with high MPE,

copulating with a recently mated male is risky for several

reasons, including (1) failure to initiate pregnancy, (2)

failure to maintain pregnancy, and (3) failure to raise a

litter.



Failure to initiate pregnancy



The basic organizational unit of copulatory behavior

in many mammalian species is the ejaculatory series, which

begins with an intromission and terminates with an

ejaculation. During ejaculatory series, males of many

species provide not only sperm, but also the stimulation

necessary to initiate a series of neuroendocrine reflexes

critical for sperm transfer, ovulation, and the initiation

of pregnancy (Dewsbury, 1978; Diamond, 1970, 1972).

Providing adequate stimulation to initiate pregnancy

may require copulation beyond the completion of one

ejaculatory series; stimulation that a recently mated male

may not be able to provide. Copulatory stimulation has

been shown to facilitate sperm transfer in golden hamsters

(Diamond, 1972; Lanier, Estep, & Dewsbury, 1975, but see

Huck & Lisk, 1985b), and laboratory rats (Matthews &

Adler, 1977, 1978). In montane voles, more than two

complete ejaculatory series were required to induce

ovulation in all females tested (Davis, Gray, Zerylnick, &







Dewsbury, 1974). Ovulation rates dropped to 25% in

females that received only one ejaculatory series. One

ejaculatory series was sufficient to produce ovulation and

implantation in female prairie voles (Gray, Zerylnick,

Davis, & Dewsbury, 1974).

In addition to possibly failing to provide

stimulation, a recently mated male is probably a depleted

male. A characteristic pattern of sexual activity in many

mammalian species is the completion of several ejaculatory

series followed by a general decrease in copulatory

activity to the point of cessation of copulation for long

periods of time. This cessation point has been generally

referred to as sexual satiation or sexual exhaustion

(e.g., Beach, 1956). Thus, whereas sperm production is

"cheap," the capacity to produce ejaculates, and

consequently the capacity to impregnate females, may be

limited (Dewsbury, 1982a; see Nakatsuru & Kramer, 1982).

Not only are there limitations in the number of

ejaculates produced, there are also significant decreases

in sperm counts of later ejaculates. Decrements in

potency and fertilizing capacity of successive ejaculates

have been shown in several rodent species. Mating with

depleted golden hamsters resulted in reduced fertility

(Huck et al., 1986) and smaller litter sizes, presumably

because of smaller ejaculates (Huck & Lisk, 1985a).

Successive ejaculates in laboratory rats were







characterized by decreasing sperm counts and reduced

fertility (Austin & Dewsbury, 1986; Toner & Adler, 1985).

Limited ejaculate production and decreases in sperm

counts across series have also been noted in prairie and

montane voles. Characteristic of both species is the

production of a large, initial ejaculate with subsequent

ejaculates being a diminishing fraction of the initial

ejaculate (Pierce et al., manuscript submitted for

publication). In early laboratory tests, montane voles

achieved a mean of 5.0 (Dewsbury, 1973) and prairie voles

a mean of 2.0 (Gray & Dewsbury, 1973) ejaculations before

reaching a satiety criterion of 30 min without an

intromission. In more recent work with different

colonies, a satiety criterion of 30 min without an

intromission or 60 min without an ejaculation has been

used. This criterion was adopted to correct for the

occurrence of "incomplete series", intromissions at

irregular intervals for hours after the last ejaculation,

in species such as montane voles (Dewsbury, 1973) and

cactus mice (Dewsbury, 1974). Using this more recent

criterion, a montane vole mean of 3.4 ejaculations (Pierce

et al., submitted) and prairie voles means of 2.7 (Pierce

et al., submitted) and 2.9 (Pierce et al., 1988)

ejaculations have been reported. Thus, these species are

limited in ejaculate production with montane voles

generally showing more copulatory behavior than prairie

voles.







Limited ejaculate production, the comparatively small

ejaculates following the initial ejaculate, and the

stimulation requirements to initiate pregnancy suggest

that females of these species may not receive the

necessary copulation to initiate pregnancy by mating with

depleted males. This may be more the case for prairie

voles, however. Satiated male montane voles display a

Coolidge effect, the reliable resumption of copulatory

activity following introduction of a novel female

(Dewsbury, 1973). This resumption may be sufficient to

initiate pregnancy, as has been demonstrated in golden

hamsters (Huck & Lisk, 1985a, 1985b). Prairie voles fail

to show a Coolidge effect (Gray & Dewsbury, 1973). Thus,

it can be argued that mating with a depleted male in

prairie voles may be more likely to lead to a failure to

ovulate and conceive than in montane voles.



Failure to maintain pregnancy



Even if pregnancy is successfully initiated, mating

with a recently mated male may have two consequences for

maintaining pregnancy because of the risk of desertion.

First, in several species, the presence of the male during

the early stages of pregnancy is critical for the

maintenance of that pregnancy by the female. This effect

has been reported for prairie voles by Richmond and Stehn

(1976) who discovered that 1-4 days of cohabitation were







necessary for pregnancy maintenance. Highest rates of

pregnancy occur when the male is present throughout

pregnancy (Hofmann, Getz, & Gavish, 1987). A similar

facilitation by male presence has been reported for

montane voles (Berger & Negus, 1982).

Second, a deserted female is at risk of having the

pregnancy disrupted. The Bruce effect (Bruce, 1959) is a

pregnancy block that occurs when a female is exposed to a

strange male or the odor of a strange male. This effect

is common in many rodent species (see reviews by Labov,

1981; Schwagmeyer, 1979), especially microtine rodents

(Stehn & Jannett, 1981). Montane (Stehn & Jannett, 1981)

and particularly prairie voles (Stehn & Jannett, 1981;

Stehn & Richmond, 1975) are susceptible to the Bruce

effect. In prairie voles, post-implantational pregnancy

blocks can occur as late as 16 or 17 days past copulation

(Stehn & Richmond, 1975) and in semi-natural enclosures

where the female can potentially avoid the male (Heske &

Nelson, 1984). Evidence suggests that the presence of the

original male facilitates the maintenance of pregnancy

(Richmond & Stehn, 1976) and may block the occurrence of

the Bruce effect. Thus, the male's presence during

gestation can be critical for pregnancy maintenance.







Failure to raise a litter



Even if a female is able to deliver a litter

successfully, the absence of a partner that would

otherwise provide parental care may result in increased

pup mortality or even the catastrophic loss of an entire

litter. Kleiman and Malcolm (1981) have identified

several categories of direct and indirect paternal

behavior; including resource acquisition, nest

construction and maintenance, care of mother and young,

defense, pup retrieval, etc. Without male parental care,

females of some species, such as prairie voles, may be

unable to raise a litter successfully. Prairie vole males

provide extensive parental care in laboratory (Dewsbury,

1985; Hartung & Dewsbury, 1979) and field (Getz, 1962) and

existing evidence suggests that this paternal care results

in higher pup survivorship (Thomas & Birney, 1979).

Male presence during development may also help

prevent infanticide. Many laboratory studies have

reported infanticidal behavior in several rodent species,

although field data of this phenomenon are scarce (see

reviews by Brooks, 1984; Labov, Huck, Elwood, & Brooks,

1985). Male absence during litter development may leave a

litter more susceptible to infanticide.








Summary

In monogamous species, males may provide resources

and parental care critical for the survival and

development of the offspring. Thus, females of these

species should discriminate and prefer males that are not

already a member of a long-term stable association. One

proximate cue that may indicate the "availability" of a

male is the recency of his prior mating. The ability of

females to discriminate between unmated and recently mated

males was assessed in the present research.














GOALS OF THE PRESENT RESEARCH


As noted above, male preferences for unmated over

mated females have been demonstrated in prairie voles,

whereas male montane voles show little preference

(Ferguson et al., 1986). These results suggest that

animals of monogamous species are more discriminating than

are polygamous species with respect to the proposed

criterion of recency of mating. The studies reported here

were designed 1) to consider a similar effect in female

prairie and montane voles, 2) to assess whether the amount

of recent mating by the potential partner influences the

expression of a preference, and 3) to determine if there

is a functional consequence in terms of pregnancy

initiation that underlies a preference for an unmated

male.

The general structure of the 10 experiments was as

follows. Experiments 1-8 represented a 2 x 2 x 2 design

with two species (prairie voles and montane voles), two

levels of recent mating (one versus three ejaculations),

and two types of apparatus (tether tests and

anesthetization tests) used to study female preferences

for unmated versus mated males (see Figure 1). In



















Tether


METHOD


Anesthesia


Tether


METHOD


Anesthesia


PRAIRIE VOLES


NO. OF EJACULATIONS BY MATED MALE

3 1



EXP. 1 EXP. 2





EXP. 3 EXP. 4





MONTANE VOLES


NO. OF EJACULATIONS BY MATED MALE

3 1



EXP. 5 EXP. 6





EXP. 7 EXP. 8


Figure 1. Experimental design of Experiments 1-8.







Experiments 9 and 10, pregnancy rates in virgin females

which mated with a recently mated, depleted male or a

sexually experienced, non-depleted male were examined.

The levels of recent mating selected for the present

experiment were based on the number of ejaculations

typically attained before satiety and the requirements for

pregnancy in the two species (see above). At one prior

ejaculation, males can not be considered as depleted. At

three ejaculations, however, most male prairie voles have

reached sexual satiety and future copulation would likely

be at infrequent and irregular intervals. Montane voles

after three ejaculations will still display sexual

behavior, but may not have the more than two series

required to initiate pregnancy (Davis et al., 1974; see

above).

It was predicted that prairie vole females would

prefer unmated males in both tether and anesthetization

trials when the amount of recent mating was sufficient to

provide the cues necessary for the discrimination, whereas

female montane voles would show no preference. With

respect to a functional consequence of this preference, it

was predicted that prairie vole females would show reduced

probability of pregnancy when mated with a depleted male

as compared to mating with a fresh male. It was expected

that montane voles would show no difference.













TEN EXPERIMENTS ON FEMALE PREFERENCE


General Method



Subjects



Subjects were 78 female and 74 male prairie voles and

80 female and 70 male montane voles derived from the

laboratory colonies at the University of Florida. Females

were 90-180 days old at the time of testing; males were no

older than 240 days by the completion of testing. Prior

to testing, subjects were individually housed in 23 x 19 x

13 cm polycarbonate cages in colony rooms on a reversed

16L:8D photoperiod with lights on starting at 20:00 hours.

Water and Purina rabbit chow were available ad lib.

All male voles were pretested for copulatory behavior

prior to testing in order to provide them with sexual

experience and ensure that they copulated under test

conditions. Pretesting consisted of mating each male to a

nonexperimental female for two complete ejaculatory

series, then leaving the pair together overnight in the

same cage for additional sexual experience. All protests

were conducted at least 10 days prior to using the male as







a subject. Some males were used as stimulus animals more

than once in an experiment. When being used a second

time, the stimulus male was paired with a different

stimulus male and in the opposite treatment condition

(i.e., fresh versus depleted) than the first time he was

used as a stimulus male.

All female voles used as subjects were without known

sexual experience prior to testing and were behaviorally

receptive at the time of testing. Each female was a

subject in only one experiment and had no prior exposure

to either of the stimulus males prior to testing.



Apparatus



All tests for Experiments 1-8 were conducted in a

tether box made of plywood painted flat gray, with a

Plexiglas front and a layer of San-i-cel bedding covering

the floor (see Figure 2). The box measured 68 x 20 x 33

cm and was divided into three equal-sized compartments;

end compartments for the two males and a central neutral

area. For Experiments 1, 2, 5, and 6, males were tethered

at opposite ends of the box and a female were free to move

between them. In Experiments 3, 4, 7, and 8, untethered,

anesthetized males were placed ventrum up at opposite ends

of the box and a female was free to move between them.

Males were placed ventrum up to allow females maximal



































C
I
U,

4I)
a)

4-4
0



ad
x


*r4






04
a)
U,








41
E,





a)

a)

a)

H


a)

-4























I
E
u.







exposure to the olfactory cues assumed to underlie the

preference.

Experiments 9 and 10 were conducted in 48 x 27 x 13

cm polycarbonate cages.



Procedure



Females were brought into estrus by placing them

across a wire barrier from a male in a divided cage three

days prior to testing. Receptivity was determined on the

day of testing. For prairie voles, daily vaginal smears

were taken using tap water and a thin wire loop. Only

those females whose smears indicated a first-day estrus

(defined as a virtual lack of leukocytes and a

predominance of non-nucleated squamous cells) on the test

day and which showed behavioral receptivity to a stud male

were used. For montane voles, receptivity was assessed by

the female's behavioral responses to a stud male on the

test day, as vaginal smears are not a good predictor of

behavioral estrus in this species (Sawrey, 1989).

For Experiments 1-8, one male was mated for the

appropriate number of complete ejaculatory series with a

nonexperimental female. These females were brought into

behavioral receptivity by injection of 0.06 mg of

estradiol benzoate three days before testing. Following

the last ejaculation, both males were either tethered

(Experiments 1, 2, 5, and 6) or anesthetized (Experiments







3, 4, 7, and 8) at opposite ends of the box. The side on

which the mated male was placed was counterbalanced across

trials. The female was then introduced into the back of

the central area and data recordings were begun.

Anesthetization tests lasted 30 min following the

introduction of the female. Tether tests lasted for 60

min following the first intromission by either male.

Tests were aborted if the female failed to visit each male

at least once within the first five minutes.

Anesthetization was accomplished by subcutaneous

injections of 0.04 ml of a ketamine HCL- xylazine mixture.

Males were placed in the tether box when all activity had

ceased and the animal was breathing deeply and slowly.

The female was introduced immediately thereafter into the

back of the central area.

All tests were conducted under red light conditions

during the dark phase of the photoperiod.



Measures



Tests involving the tethering procedure permitted the

collection of visitation and copulatory data. Visitation

measures, which provide a measure of association

preferences, included the number and duration of visits to

each male. A visit to a male was scored when any part of

the female entered the section of the tether box

containing a male.







The copulatory pattern of voles consists of three

classes of behaviors: mounts (with no vaginal insertion),

intromissions (mounts with insertion and thrusting but no

ejaculation), and ejaculations (mounts with intromission,

thrusting, and seminal emission). Copulatory measures

recorded included the number of mounts, the number of

intromissions, the number of thrusts, and the number of

ejaculations. Hit rate, the ratio of intromissions to the

number of mounts plus intromissions, was calculated for

each male (Dewsbury, 1973; Gray & Dewsbury, 1973).

Tests involving anesthetized males permitted the

collection of visitation data only. Measures related to

visitation included the number and duration of 1) visits

to each male, 2) bouts of sniffing/licking each male, and

3) bouts of lying beside/across each male (Ferguson et

al., 1986). Sniffing/licking was scored whenever the

female's snout was within 1 cm of any part of an

anesthetized male.

Measures for tests involving pregnancy in females

(Experiments 9 and 10) were the number of pregnancies in

each condition and the number of pups born.



Experiment 1



The first experiment was an attempt to determine

whether a behaviorally receptive prairie vole female would

discriminate between and copulate preferentially with an







unmated, tethered male versus a tethered male which had

recently mated for three ejaculatory series.



Method



Within three days prior to testing, prairie vole

males were fitted with plastic collars and given 1-hr

adaptation to the tether procedure and apparatus. Females

were given 1-hr adaptation to the tether box in the

absence of males. Just prior to testing, one male was

mated to a nonexperimental, hormone-injected female for

three complete ejaculatory series in a separate 48 x 27 x

13 cm polycarbonate cage. The mated and unmated males

were then tethered at each end of the tether box for 10

min. Following this adaptation period, the female was

placed in the back of the neutral area to start the test.

Recording of copulatory and visitation measures started

immediately and continued until 1 hr after the first

intromission by either male. A test was considered

aborted if the female failed to begin copulation within 30

min following introduction. A total of 12 trials was run.



Results



Results of paired t-tests are presented in Table 6.

There was a substantial difference in time spent with each

male, as females preferentially associated with unmated







Table 6
Preferences of Female Prairie Voles for Unmated Versus Mated
(for Three Ejaculations) Tethered Male Voles in Experiment 1



Measure Unmated Mated t E

(M) Male Male (df=ll)



Total Visit Time (sec) 2244.4 616.8 3.26 .01

No. Visits 29.3 24.1 1.44 n.s.

No. Ejaculations 2.3 1.0 2.11 .056

No. Intromissions 12.0 4.2 2.03 .06

No. Thrusts 71.3 24.2 2.24 .05

No. Mounts 13.7 7.1 1.57 n.s.

Hit Rate 0.47 0.34 0.98 n.s.

No. Trials with >50% of 11 1

Total Visit Time







males. Mean number of visits to each male did not differ

significantly, indicating that the results were not due to

differential sampling of each male.

Differences in the amount of copulatory behavior

engaged in by each male fell just short of statistical

significance. Females received significantly more thrusts

from unmated males than from mated males.



Experiment 2



In the first experiment, a significant female

preference for associating with unmated males over males

recently mated for three ejaculations was revealed. The

second experiment was an attempt to assess whether females

would continue to show a preference for unmated males when

the amount of copulatory activity by the mated male was

reduced. In this experiment, it was determined whether a

behaviorally receptive female would discriminate between

and copulate preferentially with an unmated, tethered male

versus a tethered male which had recently mated for one

ejaculatory series.



Method



In Experiment 2, mated males copulated for one, as

opposed to three, ejaculatory series with a

nonexperimental female before being tethered in the tether







apparatus. The procedures for Experiment 2 were otherwise

similar to those of Experiment 1. A total of 10 trials

was run.



Results



Results of paired t-tests are presented in Table 7

and show that females did not establish significant

preferences for unmated versus mated males.

None of the visitation or copulatory measures was

significantly different, although number of visits

approached significance (t = 2.07, R <.07) and there was a

substantial difference of 535.5 sec in total visit time

between males. These results demonstrate that the amount

of copulatory behavior by a recently mated male has an

important influence on female preferences.



Experiment 3



Females in Experiment 1 may have shown a preference

for an unmated male based on both behavioral and

nonbehavioral cues. Behaviorally, informal observations

suggested that recently mated males interacted less with

the female, at least initially. Conversely, unmated males

were frequently more persistent in their approaches and

interactions. This difference in behavior may have been

the cue for female preference. Experiments 3 and 4 were







Table 7
Preferences of Female Prairie Voles for Unmated Versus Mated
(for One Ejaculation) Tethered Male Voles in Experiment 2



Measure Unmated Mated t E

(M) Male Male (df=9)



Total Visit Time (sec) 1796.9 1261.4 0.89 n.s.

No. Visits 26.4 23.8 2.07 .07

No. Ejaculations 2.2 1.6 0.90 n.s.

No. Intromissions 19.1 12.9 0.62 n.s.

No. Thrusts 97.1 52.9 1.24 n.s.

No. Mounts 8.9 12.1 0.40 n.s.

Hit Rate 0.55 0.46 0.55 n.s.

No. Trials with >50% of 6 4

Total Visit Time







attempts to determine if prairie vole females would

discriminate and associate preferentially with an unmated

male over a recently mated male when behavioral cues were

eliminated. In Experiment 3, prairie vole females were

given a choice between an anesthetized unmated male and an

anesthetized male which had recently mated with a

nonexperimental female for three ejaculatory series.



Method



Just prior to testing, a prairie vole male was mated

to a nonexperimental, hormone-injected female for three

ejaculations. Following the last ejaculation, the mated

male and an unmated male were injected subcutaneously with

0.04 ml of the ketamine HCL-xylazine mixture and placed,

ventrum up, in opposite sides of the tether box. The

female was introduced immediately thereafter in the back

of the neutral area to start the test. Visitation and

association measures were recorded for 30 min following

introduction of the female. A total of 12 trials was run.



Results



Results of paired t-tests are presented in Table 8.

Prairie vole females spent significantly more time

visiting and lying beside the unmated male compared to the

mated male. The amount of sniffing to each male







Table 8
Preferences of Female Prairie Voles for Unmated Versus Mated
(For Three Ejaculations) Anesthetized Male Voles in
Experiment 3



Measure Unmated Mated t E

(M) Male Male (df=ll)



Total Visit Time (sec) 1093.6 363.3 3.90 .01

No. Visits 22.1 14.0 1.61 n.s.

Time Sniffing (sec) 243.2 171.3 1.97 .07

Time Lying Beside/ 99.2 24.1 2.18 .05

Across (sec)

No. Trials with >50% of 10 2

Total Visit Time







approached significance (R <.07). Mean number of visits

did not differ significantly, indicating similar sampling

rates to each male.

The pattern of visitation indicates the establishment

of a preference during testing. A mean time spent

visiting each male was determined for each third of the 30

min observation session. These data are presented in

Figure 3. As the figure shows, females established

preferences for unmated males during the first 10 min,

then progressively increased visitation to the unmated

male as the session continued. By the final third of the

session, females were spending virtually all of the time

with the unmated male.



Experiment 4



In Experiment 3, female prairie voles preferred to

associate with anesthetized unmated males over

anesthetized males recently mated for three ejaculations.

Experiment 4 was undertaken to determine if a prairie vole

female, in the absence of behavioral cues, would

discriminate and associate preferentially with an unmated

male over a male which had recently delivered one

ejaculation to a nonexperimental female. Females failed

to show this preference when males were tethered

(Experiment 2).












































































w .


cW
4 -)


0a)

-Il X
F 04Ez





































I I I


(o


9S)


0

-Nm


w--


ONIISIA 3-"lI NV3I


--0






--0






-0


<3






<3--1







Method



The procedures for Experiment 4 were similar to those

of Experiment 3, except that the mated male copulated for

one, as opposed to three, ejaculatory series with a non-

experimental female. A total of 12 trials was run.



Results



Results of paired t-tests are presented in Table 9.

There was no significant difference in number of visits,

time visiting, or time spent lying beside or across either

male. Females sniffed unmated males significantly longer

than mated males. Females initially preferred unmated

males, but increased time spent visiting with the mated

male as the session continued (see Figure 4). Overall,

however, there was no significant difference in time spent

with either male.

These data are consistent with the data from

Experiment 2 in that females did not preferentially

associate with unmated males when mated males deliver one,

as opposed to three, ejaculations.

Prairie vole females, like prairie vole males,

display preferences for unmated versus recently mated

potential partners. Further, in this species, the amount

of prior copulatory behavior is one factor influencing

female preference for unmated males. The next four







Table 9
Preferences of Female Prairie Voles for Unmated Versus Mated
(For One Ejaculation) Anesthetized Male Voles in Experiment
4



Measure Unmated Mated t R

(M) Male Male (df=ll)



Total Visit Time (sec) 769.1 840.4 0.41 n.s.

No. Visits 10.3 10.7 0.20 n.s.

Time Sniffing (sec) 282.2 149.9 2.18 .05

Time Lying Beside/ 169.4 84.0 0.71 n.s.

Across (sec)

No. Trials with >50% of 5 7

Total Visit Time











r.
.r-

V
a




0
.r-l

ai
a)







m
0





z










4)
0


a)
r.I





0
It
a)










r-4


41
4).,
ai










0













N04
rad
EU





as

a).


~a)

as ~

'-4















< II


-0


I I I


(3


9s)


ONIIISIA 3-1Alil NV3n


0

L--
w
w'


< -







experiments were an attempt to assess whether montane vole

females would show a similar preference.



Experiment 5



Experiment 5 was an attempt to determine whether a

behaviorally receptive montane vole female would

discriminate between and copulate preferentially with an

unmated tethered male versus a tethered male which had

recently mated for three ejaculatory series.



Method



The procedures for Experiment 5 were similar to those

of Experiment 1, except that montane voles were used as

subjects and stimulus animals. A total of 12 trials was

run.



Results



Results of paired t-tests are presented in Table 10.

Female montane voles visited each male similarly, as no

significant differences were noted for number or duration

of visits. Unmated males achieved significantly more

mounts than did recently mated males, but no difference

was noted for number of intromissions or thrusts. The







Table 10
Preferences of Female Montane Voles for Unmated Versus Mated
(for Three Ejaculations) Tethered Male Voles in Experiment 5



Measure Unmated Mated t R

(M) Male Male (df=ll)



Total Visit Time (sec) 1604.7 1510.7 0.17 n.s.

No. Visits 58.9 49.8 1.16 n.s.

No. Ejaculations 2.7 1.6 2.11 .057

No. Intromissions 27.3 22.4 0.75 n.s.

No. Thrusts 152.0 55.5 1.02 n.s.

No. Mounts 27.0 6.6 2.80 .05

Hit Rate 0.49 0.63 1.16 n.s.

No. Trials with >50% of 7 5

Total Visit Time







difference in ejaculation frequency for each male

approached significance.



Experiment 6



In Experiment 5, female montane voles failed to

associate preferentially with unmated males over males

which had recently mated for three ejaculations.

Experiment 6 was designed to determine whether the amount

of prior copulatory behavior by the mated male influences

preference formation by females. In this experiment, it

was determined whether a behaviorally receptive female

will discriminate between and copulate preferentially with

an unmated tethered male versus a tethered male which had

recently mated for one ejaculatory series.



Method



The procedures for Experiment 6 were similar to those

of Experiment 2, except that montane voles were used as

subjects and stimulus males. A total of 12 trials was

run.




Full Text

PAGE 1

)(0$,; 63(&,(6 $ 2) 7

PAGE 2

)(0$/( 35()(5(1&(6 )25 810$7(' 9(5686 0$7(' 0$/(6 ,1 7:2 63(&,(6 2) 92/(6 35$,5,( 92/(6 I0,&52786 2&+52*$67(5A $1' 0217$1( 92/(6 0,&52786 0217$186f %\ -2+1 '$9,' 3,(5&( -5 $ ',66(57$7,21 35(6(17(' 72 7+( *5$'8$7( 6&+22/ 2) 7+( 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$ ,1 3$57,$/ )8/),//0(17 2) 7+( 5(48,5(0(176 )25 7+( '(*5(( 2) '2&725 2) 3+,/2623+< 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 3

&RS\ULJKW E\ -RKQ 'DYLG 3LHUFH -U

PAGE 4

7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ LV GHGLFDWHG WR WKH PHPRU\ RI D WUXH WUXH IULHQG DQG VHQVHL :LOODUG ) 'D\

PAGE 5

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f DQG WKDQN WKHP IRU WKDW )LQDOO\ DQG PRVW LPSRUWDQWO\ WKDQN P\ ZLIH /RUUDLQH IRU DOO KHU ORYH VXSSRUW DQG HQFRXUDJHPHQW 7KLV LV DV PXFK KHU DFFRPSOLVKPHQW DV LW LV PLQH ,9

PAGE 6

7$%/( 2) &217(176 3DJH $&.12:/('*0(176 LY $%675$&7 YLL ,1752'8&7,21 0DWH &KRLFH 0HWKRGRORJLFDO ,VVXHV LQ 3UHIHUHQFH 'HPRQVWUDWLRQ $662&,$7,21 $1' 0$7,1* 35()(5(1&(6 ,1 0852,' 52'(176 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU &RQVSHFLILFV 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 0HPEHUV RI WKH 2SSRVLWH 6H[ 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 'LIIHUHQW 5HSURGXFWLYH &RQGLWLRQV 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 'RPLQDQW ,QGLYLGXDOV 3UHIHUHQFHV %DVHG RQ *HQHWLF 'LIIHUHQFHV 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU )DPLOLDU DQG 1RYHO &RQVSHFLILFV 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 8QPDWHG YHUVXV 0DWHG ,QGLYLGXDOV 2WKHU 3UHIHUHQFHV 6XPPDU\ RI $VVRFLDWLRQ0DWLQJ 3UHIHUHQFHV )XWXUH 'LUHFWLRQV 5(/$7,216+,3 2) 0$7( &+2,&( 72 0$7,1* 6<67(0 0DWLQJ 6\VWHPV RI 3UDLULH DQG 0RQWDQH 9ROHV 0DWLQJ 6\VWHPV DQG 0DWH &KRLFH 6XPPDU\ *2$/6 2) 7+( 35(6(17 5(6($5&+ 7(1 (;3(5,0(176 21 )(0$/( 35()(5(1&(6 *HQHUDO 0HWKRG ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW Y

PAGE 7

*(1(5$/ ',6&866,21 6XPPDU\ DQG 2YHUYLHZ RI 5HVXOWV &RPSDULVRQ WR 3UHIHUHQFHV LQ 2WKHU 6SHFLHV 3UHIHUHQFHV LQ 3UDLULH DQG 0RQWDQH 9ROHV 3UHIHUHQFHV DQG 0DWLQJ 6\VWHPV 5()(5(1&(6 %,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ YL

PAGE 8

$EVWUDFW RI 'LVVHUWDWLRQ 3UHVHQWHG WR WKH *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO RI WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD LQ 3DUWLDO )XOILOOPHQW RI WKH 5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH 'HJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ )(0$/( 35()(5(1&(6 )25 810$7(' 9(5686 0$7(' 0$/(6 ,1 7:2 63(&,(6 2) 92/(6 35$,5,( 92/(6 0,&52786 2&+52*$67(5f $1' 0217$1( 92/(6 0,&52786 0217$186f %\ -RKQ 'DYLG 3LHUFH -U $XJXVW &KDLUPDQ 'RQDOG $ 'HZVEXU\ 0DMRU 'HSDUWPHQW 3V\FKRORJ\ 0DWH VHOHFWLRQ KDV EHHQ WKH IRFXV RI PXFK WKRXJKW DQG H[SHULPHQWDO LQTXLU\ LQ WKH ILHOG RI DQLPDO EHKDYLRU 0DQ\ FULWHULD KDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG DV LQIOXHQFLQJ PDWH FKRLFH LQ URGHQW VSHFLHV ,Q WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ RQH DVSHFW RI PDWH FKRLFH QDPHO\ IHPDOH SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG YHUVXV PDWHG PDOHV ZDV H[DPLQHG LQ WZR VSHFLHV RI YROHV SUDLULH YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHUf DQG PRQWDQH YROHV 0 PRQWDQXVf 7KHVH WZR VSHFLHV ZHUH FRPSDUHG EHFDXVH H[LVWLQJ ILHOG DQG ODERUDWRU\ HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH\ PD\ GLIIHU LQ WKHLU PDWLQJ V\VWHPV ZLWK SUDLULH YROHV EHLQJ JHQHUDOO\ PRQRJDPRXV DQG PRQWDQH YROHV JHQHUDOO\ SRO\JDPRXV ,Q D VHULHV RI H[SHULPHQWV IHPDOH SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG YHUVXV UHFHQWO\ PDWHG PDOHV ZHUH H[DPLQHG XVLQJ WZR GLIIHUHQW SURFHGXUHV ,Q WHWKHU WHVWV SHUPLWWLQJ FRSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU SUDLULH YROH IHPDOHV YLL

PAGE 9

SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ YLVLWHG ZLWK XQPDWHG PDOHV RYHU PDOHV WKDW KDG EHHQ PDWHG IRU WKUHH HMDFXODWLRQV SULRU WR WHVWLQJ ([S f 3UDLULH YROH IHPDOHV SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQHVWKHWL]HG XQPDWHG PDOHV RYHU DQHVWKHWL]HG PDOHV WKDW KDG GHOLYHUHG WKUHH HMDFXODWLRQV SULRU WR WHVWLQJ ([S f :KHQ PDWHG PDOHV GHOLYHUHG RQH DV RSSRVHG WR WKUHH HMDFXODWLRQV SULRU WR WHVWLQJ SUDLULH YROH IHPDOHV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFHV LQ WHWKHU WHVWV ([S f DQG JUHDWO\ UHGXFHG SUHIHUHQFHV LQ DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WHVWV ([S f 0RQWDQH YROH IHPDOHV VKRZHG IHZ SUHIHUHQFHV GXULQJ HLWKHU SURFHGXUH UHJDUGOHVV RI WKH QXPEHU RQH RU WKUHHf RI SULRU HMDFXODWLRQV E\ WKH PDWHG PDOH ([SV f ,Q ([SHULPHQWV DQG IHPDOHV RI HDFK VSHFLHV ZHUH PDWHG WR HLWKHU IUHVK RU DOUHDG\ PDWHG PDOHV WR DVVHVV GHWULPHQWDO HIIHFWV RQ SUHJQDQF\ LQLWLDWLRQ DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI PDWLQJ ZLWK D GHSOHWHG PDOH 1R VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH QRWHG IRU HLWKHU VSHFLHV LQ HLWKHU SUREDELOLW\ RI SUHJQDQF\ RU VL]H RI UHVXOWLQJ OLWWHUV 6SHFLHV GLIIHUHQFHV LQ IHPDOH SUHIHUHQFH IRU XQPDWHG PDOHV SDUDOOHO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ RWKHU PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV DQG PD\ EH UHODWHG WR PDWLQJ V\VWHP GLIIHUHQFHV YLLL

PAGE 10

,1752'8&7,21 0DWH VHOHFWLRQ KDV EHHQ WKH IRFXV RI PXFK WKRXJKW DQG H[SHULPHQWDO LQTXLU\ LQ WKH ILHOG RI DQLPDO EHKDYLRU 3RWHQWLDO PDWLQJ SDUWQHUV FDQ YDU\ FRQVLGHUDEO\ DORQJ VHYHUDO GLPHQVLRQV UHODWHG WR PDWH TXDOLW\ +DOOLGD\ f 9DULDWLRQV LQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VXFK DV SK\VLFDO FRQGLWLRQ GRPLQDQFH VWDWXV UHVRXUFHV DQG SDUHQWDO DELOLWLHV DPRQJ RWKHUV DIIHFW PDQ\ SDUDPHWHUV RI UHSURGXFWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ WKH QXPEHU VXUYLYDO DQG TXDOLW\ RI RIIVSULQJ $ NH\ WHQHW RI HYROXWLRQDU\ WKHRU\ LV WKDW DQLPDOV VKRXOG EH VHOHFWHG IRU WKHLU DELOLW\ WR DVVHVV SRWHQWLDO PDWHV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKHVH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ DQG VHOHFWLRQ RI WKH EHVW SRWHQWLDO PDWH DYDLODEOH VKRXOG HQKDQFH DQ LQGLYLGXDOnV UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV )RU WKLV UHDVRQ WKH VWXG\ RI PDWH FKRLFH LV DQ LPSRUWDQW DUHD RI LQWHUHVW LQ DQLPDO EHKDYLRU ,Q WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ RQH DVSHFW RI PDWH FKRLFH QDPHO\ IHPDOH SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG YHUVXV UHFHQWO\ PDWHG PDOHV ZDV H[DPLQHG LQ WZR VSHFLHV RI YROHV SUDLULH YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHUf DQG PRQWDQH YROHV &0 PRQWDQXVf

PAGE 11

0DWH &KRLFH ,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ PDWH FKRLFH LV GHILQHG DQG GLVFXVVHG LQ UHODWLRQ WR PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV DQG DFWLYH YHUVXV SDVVLYH FKRLFH $ 'HILQLWLRQ +DOOLGD\ f KDV GHILQHG PDWH FKRLFH DV DQ\ SDWWHUQ RI EHKDYLRXU VKRZQ E\ PHPEHUV RI RQH VH[ WKDW OHDGV WR WKHLU EHLQJ PRUH OLNHO\ WR PDWH ZLWK FHUWDLQ PHPEHUV RI WKH RSSRVLWH VH[ WKDQ ZLWK RWKHUV S f 7KLV GHILQLWLRQ KDV WKH DGYDQWDJH RI FKDUDFWHUL]LQJ PDWH FKRLFH VROHO\ LQ WHUPV RI REVHUYDEOH SKHQRPHQD )XUWKHU WKLV GHILQLWLRQ PDNHV FOHDU WKDW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ YDULDWLRQV LQ LQGLYLGXDO EHKDYLRU DQG YDULDWLRQV LQ PDWLQJ VXFFHVV LV WKH FULWLFDO UHODWLRQVKLS XQGHUO\LQJ PDWH FKRLFH $FWLYH YHUVXV 3DVVLYH &KRLFH $V +DOOLGD\nV GHILQLWLRQ LPSOLHV PDWH FKRLFH QHHG QRW EH EDVHG RQ VSHFLILF PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV E\ WKH FKRRVLQJ DQLPDO )RU H[DPSOH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH HDVH RI ORFDOL]LQJ WKH VRXUFH RI D FDOO PD\ OHDG WR YDULDWLRQV LQ PDWLQJ VXFFHVV $OWHUQDWLYHO\ LQGLYLGXDOV PD\ PRYH WRZDUG WKH VRXUFH RI D FDOO SHUFHLYHG DV WKH FORVHVW

PAGE 12

3DUNHU f 2n'RQDOG f DQG RWKHUV KDYH DWWHPSWHG WR FODULI\ WKLV LVVXH E\ GLVWLQJXLVKLQJ EHWZHHQ SDVVLYH DQG DFWLYH FKRLFH )RU 3DUNHU f SDVVLYH FKRLFH RFFXUV ZKHQ LQGLYLGXDOV KDYH QR SULRU SUHIHUHQFHV IRU SDUWLFXODU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV EXW DUH SDVVLYHO\ DWWUDFWHG WR WKH PRVW LQWHQVH VRXUFH RI D FRQVSHFLILF FXH 6HDUF\ DQG $QGHUVVRQ f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t +DOOLGD\ S f 6XOOLYDQ f KDV DUJXHG WKDW WKH GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ SDVVLYH DQG DFWLYH FKRLFH LV LQDSSURSULDWH DQG WKDW WKH PRUH LPSRUWDQW LVVXH LV WKH HYROXWLRQDU\ VLJQLILFDQFH RI PDWH FKRLFH )LUVW 6XOOLYDQ DUJXHV LW LV GLIILFXOW WR GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ WKHVH WZR W\SHV RI PDWH FKRLFH HVSHFLDOO\ DW D SUR[LPDWH OHYHO )RU LQVWDQFH DWWUDFWLRQ WR WKH PRUH LQWHQVH 3DUNHU f RU

PAGE 13

PRVW SUR[LPDWH 6HDUF\ t $QGHUVVRQ f FXH PD\ UHSUHVHQW DQ DFWLYH FKRLFH IRU SUR[LPLW\ 6HFRQG LQVWDQFHV RI SDVVLYH FKRLFH PD\ VWLOO EH VKDSHG E\ QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ ,I ZH ILQG WKDW IHPDOHV SUHIHU PDWHV ZKR FDOO IUHTXHQWO\ ZH PD\ VWLOO DVN ZK\ WKH IHPDOHnV VHQVRU\ V\VWHP SDVVLYHO\ UHVSRQGV LQ VXFK D IDVKLRQ S f )XUWKHU SDVVLYH UHVSRQGLQJ LQ WKLV PDQQHU PD\ VWLOO UHVXOW LQ GLIIHUHQWLDO PDWLQJ VXFFHVV FRQIHUUHG XSRQ FHUWDLQ LQGLYLGXDOV DQG WKHVH HYROXWLRQDU\ LPSOLFDWLRQV QHHG WR EH DGGUHVVHG 6XOOLYDQnV DSSURDFK HPSKDVL]HV DV GRHV +DOOLGD\nV f GHILQLWLRQ WKDW WKH FULWLFDO UHODWLRQVKLS XQGHUO\LQJ PDWH FKRLFH LV EHWZHHQ YDULDWLRQV LQ LQGLYLGXDO EHKDYLRU DQG YDULDWLRQV LQ PDWLQJ VXFFHVV +DOOLGD\nV f GHILQLWLRQ ZDV DGRSWHG IRU WKH SUHVHQW ZRUN )ROORZLQJ 6XOOLYDQ f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

PAGE 14

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f )RUFHGFKRLFH SDUDGLJPV LQ ZKLFK WKH VXEMHFW PXVW EH LQ DQ DUHD DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D VWLPXOXV GR QRW DOORZ DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI ZKHWKHU WKH VXEMHFW LV DWWUDFWHG WR RQH VWLPXOXV RU UHSHOOHG E\ WKH RWKHU VWLPXOXV 'RW\ f $FFRUGLQJO\ PRVW SUHIHUHQFH WDVNV LQFRUSRUDWH D QHXWUDO DUHD 6WLPXOL SUHVHQWHG LQ D SUHIHUHQFH WDVN PD\ EH OLYH DQLPDOV DQHVWKHWL]HG DQLPDOV RU RGRUV FROOHFWHG IURP DQLPDOV (DFK W\SH RI VWLPXOL KDV LWV RZQ SDUWLFXODU DGYDQWDJHV 7KH XVH RI RGRUV DV VWLPXOL DOORZV WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR LVRODWH DQG WHVW D VSHFLILF VHQVRU\ FXH ZLWKRXW WKH HIIHFWV RI RWKHU VHQVRU\ PRGDOLWLHV 8VH RI OLYH DQLPDOV KDV DW OHDVW WZR DGYDQWDJHV )LUVW OLYH

PAGE 15

VWLPXOL DOORZ IRU SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI FXHV IURP PRUH VHQVRU\ PRGDOLWLHV 6HFRQG XVH RI OLYH DQLPDOV SHUPLWV WKH UHFRUGLQJ RI GLIIHUHQW PHDVXUHV HJ FRSXODWRU\ PHDVXUHVf WR SURYLGH D PRUH SRZHUIXO PHDQV RI DVVHVVLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV $QHVWKHWL]DWLRQ SURFHGXUHV DUH XVHIXO LQ LVRODWLQJ VSHFLILF VHQVRU\ FXHV ZKLOH FRQWUROOLQJ IRU H[WUDQHRXV EHKDYLRUDO FXHV E\ WKH VWLPXOXV DQLPDOV 7KH PRGH RI VWLPXOXV SUHVHQWDWLRQ LV PRUH WKDQ D TXHVWLRQ RI FRQYHQLHQFH ,Q VRPH FDVHV WKH ZD\ LQ ZKLFK VWLPXOL DUH SUHVHQWHG FDQ LQIOXHQFH WKH RXWFRPH RI SUHIHUHQFH WHVWLQJ )RU H[DPSOH PDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV SUHIHU RGRUV IURP HVWURXV IHPDOHV RYHU GLHVWURXV IHPDOHV -RKQVWRQ f EXW DSSDUHQWO\ GR QRW VKRZ WKLV SUHIHUHQFH ZKHQ OLYH DQLPDOV VHUYH DV VWLPXOL -RKQVWRQ .ZDQ t -RKQVWRQ f 3UHIHUHQFHV DUH PRVW DFFXUDWHO\ DVVHVVHG ZKHQ D FRPELQDWLRQ RI VWLPXOL SUHVHQWDWLRQV LV XVHG 5HVSRQVH 0HDVXUHPHQW $ QXPEHU RI GLIIHUHQW PHDVXUHV KDYH EHHQ XVHG WR DVVHVV SUHIHUHQFHV 0HDVXUHV WDNHQ WR HYDOXDWH SUHIHUHQFHV PD\ EH WLPH VSHQW LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK D JLYHQ VWLPXOXV FRSXODWLRQ ZLWK HDFK VWLPXOXV DQLPDO RU VSHFLDOL]HG EHKDYLRUV HJ VQLIILQJ XULQH PDUNLQJ VROLFLWDWLRQ EHKDYLRUf GLUHFWHG WRZDUGV WKH VWLPXOXV

PAGE 16

,GHDOO\ PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV VKRXOG EH DVVHVVHG E\ D PHWKRGRORJ\ WKDW SHUPLWV FRSXODWLRQ DV D PHDVXUHG UHVSRQVH -RKQVWRQ f 6XFK D SURFHGXUH LV DGYDQWDJHRXV LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKDW SUHIHUHQFHV GLUHFWO\ UHVXOW LQ PDWLQJ EHKDYLRU EHLQJ GLUHFWHG WRZDUG D SDUWLFXODU SDUWQHU +RZHYHU D ODERUDWRU\ FKRLFH WHVW PD\ SUHFOXGH WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI D SUHIHUHQFH EHFDXVH RI WKH SUR[LPLW\ RI DQG WKH HDVH RI FRSXODWLQJ ZLWK ERWK SRWHQWLDO PDWLQJ SDUWQHUV $Q DOWHUQDWLYH DSSURDFK LV WR DVVHVV DVVRFLDWLRQ SUHIHUHQFHV ZKHQ FRSXODWLRQ LV SUHYHQWHG HJ E\ D ZLUH EDUULHUf RU LPSRVVLEOH HJ XVH RI DQHVWKHWL]HG DQLPDOV RU RGRU FXHV DORQHf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

PAGE 17

6XPPDU\ $VVRFLDWLRQ DQG PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV KDYH EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG IRU PDQ\ VSHFLHV E\ WKHVH PHWKRGV DQG KDYH EHHQ WKH VXEMHFW RI PXFK UHFHQW OLWHUDWXUH FI %DWHVRQ f 7KHUH LV QRZ VWURQJ HYLGHQFH WKDW IHPDOHV SOD\ DQ DFWLYH UROH LQ WKH LQLWLDWLRQ DQG PDLQWHQDQFH RI FRSXODWLRQ 'RW\ f DQG GR H[HUW DFWLYH FKRLFH LQ PDWH VHOHFWLRQ 3DUWULGJH t +DOOLGD\ f (YLGHQFH LV DOVR DFFXPXODWLQJ WKDW PDOHV RI PDQ\ VSHFLHV H[KLELW PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV DV ZHOO 'HZVEXU\ Df 7KH PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV RI PXURLG URGHQWV DUH WKH VXEMHFW RI WKH QH[W VHFWLRQ

PAGE 18

$662&,$7,21 $1' 0$7,1* 35()(5(1&(6 ,1 0852,' 52'(176 0DQ\ FULWHULD WKDW IRUP WKH EDVLV IRU DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV KDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG IRU PXURLG URGHQWV D GLYHUVH WD[RQRPLF JURXS QXPEHULQJ RYHU JHQHUD LQ WKUHH PDMRU DQG WZR PLQRU IDPLOLHV 'HZVEXU\ f 2OIDFWRU\ FXHV LQ SDUWLFXODU DSSHDU WR EH FULWLFDO DV SUHIHUHQFHV KDYH EHHQ H[KLELWHG IRU VHYHUDO FODVVHV RI PDPPDOLDQ VRFLDO RGRUV %URZQ f +RZHYHU SUHIHUHQFHV KDYH EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG IRU D QXPEHU RI QRQn ROIDFWRU\ FXHV DV ZHOO 7DEOH FRQWDLQV D OLVWLQJ RI WKH PXURLG URGHQW VSHFLHV ZKLFK KDYH EHHQ VWXGLHG IRU PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV DQG ZKLFK ZLOO EH GLVFXVVHG LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU &RQVRHFLILFV $ IXQGDPHQWDO SUREOHP IRU DQLPDOV VHOHFWLQJ PDWHV LV LGHQWLI\LQJ FRQVSHFLILFV 6SHFLHVW\SLFDO RGRUV RGRUV FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI DOO PHPEHUV RI D VSHFLHV RU VXEVSHFLHV %URZQ S f KDYH RIWHQ EHHQ VKRZQ WR LQIOXHQFH PDWH FKRLFH DQG DVVRFLDWLRQ SUHIHUHQFHV 6SHFLHV H[KLELWLQJ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU FRQVSHFLILFV YHUVXV KHWHURVSHFLILFV DUH OLVWHG LQ 7DEOH :LWK IHZ

PAGE 19

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

PAGE 20

7DEOH f§ FRQWLQXHG &RPPRQ 1DPH 6FLHQWLILF 1DPH &DOLIRUQLD PLFH 3 FDOLIRUQLFXV &DFWXV PLFH 3 HUHPLFXV :RRG UDWV 1HRWRPD PLFURRXV 'HVHUW ZRRG UDWV 1HRWRPD OHRLGD

PAGE 21

7DEOH 6WXGLHV $VVHVVLQJ &RQVSHFLILF 3UHIHUHQFHV LQ 0XURLG 5RGHQWV +HWHURVSHFLILF 6SHFLHV 6H[ 6WLPXOXV $OWHUQDWLYH 3UHIHUHQFH 6WXGY 0RQWDQH YROHV 0 $QLPDO JUD\WDLOHG YROHV &RQVS 0F'RQDOG t )RUVOXQG ) $QLPDO JUD\WDLOHG YROHV 1RQH 0F'RQDOG t )RUVOXQG *UD\WDLOHG YROHV 0 $QLPDO PRQWDQH YROHV &RQVS 0F'RQDOG t )RUVOXQG ) $QLPDO PRQWDQH YROHV 1RQH 0F'RQDOG t )RUVOXQG 3UDLULH YROHV 0 $QLPDO PHDGRZ YROHV &RQVS 3LHUFH HW DO ) $QLPDO PHDGRZ YROHV &RQVS 3LHUFH HW DO 0HDGRZ YROHV 0 $QLPDO SUDLULH YROHV &RQVS 3LHUFH HW DO 0 $QLPDO SUDLULH YROHV 1RQH 0F*XLUH t 1RYDN 0 $QLPDO SLQH YROHV &RQVS 0F*XLUH t 1RYDN ) $QLPDO SUDLULH YROHV 1RQH 3LHUFH HW DO ) $QLPDO SUDLULH YROHV 1RQH 0F*XLUH t 1RYDN ) $QLPDO SLQH YROHV &RQVS 0F*XLUH t 1RYDN &RPPRQ YROHV 0 2GRU KRXVH PLFH &RQVS %ROKXLV HW DO ) 2GRU KRXVH PLFH &RQVS %ROKXLV HW DO %DQN YROHV 0 $QLPDO VHYHUDO VSHFLHV &RQVS *RGIUH\

PAGE 22

7DEOH f§FRQWLQXHG 6SHFLHV +HWHURVSHFLILF 6H[ 6WLPXOXV $OWHUQDWLYH 3UHIHUHQFH 6WXG\ %URZQ OHPPLQJV 0 2GRU FROODUHG OHPPLQJV &RQVS +XFN t %DQNV D ) 2GRU FROODUHG OHPPLQJV &RQVS +XFN t %DQNV D &ROODUHG OHPPLQJV 0 2GRU EURZQ OHPPLQJV &RQVS +XFN t %DQNV D ) 2GRU EURZQ OHPPLQJV &RQVS +XFN t %DQNV D *ROGHQ KDPVWHUV 0 $QLPDO 7XUNLVK KDPVWHUV &RQVS 0XUSK\ 0 2GRU 7XUNLVK KDPVWHUV &RQVS 0XUSK\ ) $QLPDO WZR KDPVWHU VSHFLHV &RQVS 0XUSK\ 5RPDQLDQ KDPVWHUV ) $QLPDO WZR KDPVWHU VSHFLHV &RQVS 0XUSK\ 7XUNLVK KDPVWHUV 0 $QLPDO JROGHQ KDPVWHUV &RQVS 0XUSK\ ) $QLPDO WZR KDPVWHU VSHFLHV &RQVS 0XUSK\ +RXVH PLFH 0 $QLPDO ODERUDWRU\ UDWV &RQVS +XGJHQV HW DO 0 $QLPDO ODERUDWRU\ UDWV &RQVS 'HQHQEHUJ HW DO 0 $QLPDO ODERUDWRU\ UDWV &RQVS /DJHUVSLW] t +HLQ] 0 $QLPDO S\JP\ PLFH &RQVS 4XDGDJQR t %DQNV ) $QLPDO S\JP\ PLFH &RQVS 4XDGDJQR t %DQNV

PAGE 23

7DEOH f§FRQWLQXHG +HWHURVSHFLILF 6SHFLHV 6H[ 6WLPXOXV $OWHUQDWLYH 3UHIHUHQFH 6WXGY +RXVH PLFH ) 2GRU GHHU PLFH 1RQH .LUFKKRI*OD]LHU ) $QLPDO GHHU PLFH 1RQH .LUFKKRI*OD]LHU 'HHU PLFH 0 2GRU DLU 1RQH 'RW\ 0 2GRU 0H[LFDQ PLFH &RQVS 0RRUH 0 2GRU ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH &RQVS 0LOOHU t 9RRUKHHV ) 2GRU DLU &RQVS 'RW\ ) 2GRU ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH &RQVS 'RW\ ) 2GRU 0H[LFDQ PLFH &RQVS 0RRUH :KLWHIRRWHG PLFH 0 2GRU DLU 1RQH 'RW\ 0 2GRU GHHU PLFH 1RQH 0LOOHU t 9RRUKHHV 0 $QLPDO 6 JUDVVKRSSHU PLFH &RQVS 0F&DUW\ t 6RXWKZLFN n ) 2GRU DLU 1RQH 'RW\ ) $QLPDO 6 JUDVVKRSSHU PLFH &RQVS 0F&DUW\ t 6RXWKZLFN n 0H[LFDQ PLFH 0 2GRU GHHU PLFH 1RQH 0RRUH ) 2GRU GHHU PLFH 1RQH 0RRUH

PAGE 24

7DEOH FRQWLQXHG +HWHURVSHFLILF 6SHFLHV 6H[ 6WLPXOXV $OWHUQDWLYH 3UHIHUHQFH &DOLIRUQLD PLFH 0 $QLPDO FDFWXV PLFH &RQVS 0 $QLPDO FDFWXV PLFH &RQVS ) $QLPDO FDFWXV PLFH &RQVS &DFWXV PLFH 0 $QLPDO &DOLIRUQLD PLFH &RQVS 0 $QLPDO &DOLIRUQLD PLFH &RQVS ) $QLPDO &DOLIRUQLD PLFH &RQVS 3\JP\ PLFH 0 $QLPDO KRXVH PLFH &RQVS ) $QLPDO KRXVH PLFH &RQVS 6 JUDVVKRSSHU PLFH 0 2GRU ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH &RQVS ) 2GRU ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH &RQVS 6SLQ\ PLFH 0 2GRU FOHDQ EHGGLQJ &RQVS ZHDQOLQJVf 6WXG\ 6PLWK &DUWHU t %UDQG &DUWHU t %UDQG 6PLWK &DUWHU t %UDQG &DUWHU t %UDQG 4XDGDJQR t %DQNV 4XDGDJQR t %DQNV 0F&DUW\ t 6RXWKZLFN 0F&DUW\ t 6RXWKZLFN 3RUWHU t 'RDQH 1RWH 0 0DOH ) )HPDOH &RQVS &RQVSHFLILF

PAGE 25

H[FHSWLRQV DQLPDOV KDYH GHPRQVWUDWHG FOHDU SUHIHUHQFHV IRU PHPEHUV RI WKH VDPH VSHFLHV 7ZR PDLQ IDFWRUV KDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG DV PRGLI\LQJ FRQVSHFLILF DVVRFLDWLRQ SUHIHUHQFHV )LUVW UHVXOWV IURP FURVVIRVWHULQJ ZRUN KDYH GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKHVH SUHIHUHQFHV DUH LQIOXHQFHG E\ HDUO\ H[SHULHQFH 7DEOH FRQWDLQV D OLVWLQJ RI FURVVIRVWHULQJ VWXGLHV LQ ZKLFK VSHFLHV SUHIHUHQFHV KDYH EHHQ HYDOXDWHG 1RW DOO VSHFLHV VWXGLHG KDYH HVWDEOLVKHG SUHIHUHQFHV IRU IRVWHU VSHFLHV ,Q JHQHUDO KRZHYHU PRVW FURVVIRVWHUHG DQLPDOV DSSHDU WR VKRZ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU WKH IRVWHU VSHFLHV RU D VLJQLILFDQW UHGXFWLRQ LQ SUHIHUHQFHV IRU FRQVSHFLILFV 'n8GLQH DQG $OLHYD f KDYH UHYLHZHG FURVVIRVWHULQJ VWXGLHV IURP VHYHUDO URGHQW IDPLOLHV 7KHLU FRQFOXVLRQV DUH VLPLODU WR WKH SUHVHQW RQHV (DUO\ H[SHULHQFH UHVXOWHG PDLQO\ LQ D UHGXFHG SUHIHUHQFH IRU FRQVSHFLILFV DQG LQ DQ HQKDQFHG SUHIHUHQFH IRU WKH FURVVIRVWHULQJ VSHFLHV S f )RVWHU SUHIHUHQFHV OLNH FRQVSHFLILF SUHIHUHQFHV 3RUWHU t 'RDQH f DUH HVWDEOLVKHG HDUO\ 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU IRVWHU VSHFLHV DUH HYLGHQW DV HDUO\ DV WZR GD\V RI DJH LQ VSLQ\ PLFH UHDUHG E\ KRXVH PLFH 3RUWHU 'HQL t 'RDQH f /H5R\ 5R\ DQG %ULOH\ f VKRZHG DQ HIIHFW RI FURVVIRVWHULQJ LQ GD\ROG KRXVH PLFH DQG DQ HIIHFW RI WKH JHQHUDO UHDULQJ HQYLURQPHQW FRORQ\ RGRUVf LQ GD\ROG KRXVH PLFH 6HFRQG FRQVSHFLILF SUHIHUHQFHV LQ VHYHUDO VSHFLHV DUH LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH HVWURXV VWDWH RI WKH IHPDOH ,Q

PAGE 26

&URVVIRVWHULQJ 6WXGLHV $VVHVVLQJ &RQVSHFLILF 3UHIHUHQFHV LQ 0XURLG 5RGHQWV 6RHFLHV 6H[ 6WLPXOXV )RVWHU 6SHFLHV 3UHIHUHQFH 6WXGY 0RQWDQH YROHV 0 $QLPDO JUD\WDLOHG YROHV 1RQH 0F'RQDOG t )RUVOXQG ) $QLPDO JUD\WDLOHG YROHV )RVWHU 0F'RQDOG t )RUVOXQG *UD\WDLOHG YROHV 0 $QLPDO PRQWDQH YROHV 1RQH 0F'RQDOG t )RUVOXQG ) $QLPDO PRQWDQH YROHV 1RQH 0F'RQDOG t )RUVOXQG 0HDGRZ YROHV 0 $QLPDO SUDLULH YROHV )RVWHU 0F*XLUH t 1RYDN ) $QLPDO SUDLULH YROHV 1RQH 0F*XLUH t 1RYDN %URZQ OHPPLQJV 0 2GRU FROODUHG OHPPLQJV )RVWHU +XFN t %DQNV D ) 2GRU FROODUHG OHPPLQJV 1RQH +XFN t %DQNV D &ROODUHG OHPPLQJV 0 2GRU EURZQ OHPPLQJV )RVWHU +XFN t %DQNV D ) 2GRU EURZQ OHPPLQJV 1RQH +XFN t %DQNV D *ROGHQ KDPVWHUV 0 $QLPDO 7XUNLVK KDPVWHUV 1RQH 0XUSK\ 7XUNLVK KDPVWHUV 0 $QLPDO 6\ULDQ KDPVWHUV 1RQH 0XUSK\ +RXVH PLFH 0 $QLPDO ODERUDWRU\ UDWV )RVWHU 'HQHQEHUJ HW DO 0 $QLPDO ODERUDWRU\ UDWV )RVWHU +XGJHQV HW DO 0 $QLPDO ODERUDWRU\ UDWV )RVWHU /DJHUVSHW] t +HLQR 0 $QLPDO S\JP\ PLFH )RVWHU 4XDGDJQR t %DQNV

PAGE 27

7DEOH FRQWLQXHG 6SHFLHV 6H[ 6WLPXOXV )RVWHU 6SHFLHV 3UHIHUHQFH 6WXGY +RXVH PLFH ) $QLPDO S\JP\ PLFH )RVWHU 4XDGDJQR t %DQNV ) 2GRU GHHU PLFH 1RQH .LUFKKRI*OD]LHU ) $QLPDO GHHU PLFH 1RQH .LUFKKRI*OD]LHU $QLPDO ODERUDWRU\ UDWV )RVWHU /H5R\ HW DO 3\JP\ PLFH 0 $QLPDO KRXVH PLFH &RQVS 4XDGDJQR t %DQNV ) $QLPDO KRXVH PLFH )RVWHU 4XDGDJQR t %DQNV &DOLIRUQLD PLFH 0 $QLPDO FDFWXV PLFH 1RQH &DUWHU t %UDQG ) $QLPDO FDFWXV PLFH 1RQH &DUWHU t %UDQG &DFWXV PLFH 0 $QLPDO &DOLIRUQLD PLFH )RVWHU &DUWHU t %UDQG ) $QLPDO &DOLIRUQLD PLFH )RVWHU &DUWHU t %UDQG 6 JUDVVKRSSHU PLFH 0 2GRU ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH 1RQH 0F&DUW\ t 6RXWKZLFN ) 2GRU ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH 1RQH 0F&DUW\ t 6RXWKZLFN :KLWHIRRWHG PLFH 0 2GRU 6 JUDVVKRSSHU PLFH )RVWHU 0F&DUW\ t 6RXWKZLFN ) 2GRU 6 JUDVVKRSSHU PLFH 1RQH 0F&DUW\ t 6RXWKZLFN 1RWH 0 0DOH ) )HPDOH &RQVS &RQVSHFLILF

PAGE 28

GHHU PLFH HVWURXV IHPDOHV EXW QRW GLHVWURXV IHPDOHV SUHIHUUHG FRQVSHFLILF PDOHV 'RW\ f (VWURXV VWDWH LQ IHPDOHV XVHG DV VWLPXOXV DQLPDOV FDQ LQIOXHQFH PDOH SUHIHUHQFHV :KHQ JLYHQ D FKRLFH EHWZHHQ FRQVSHFLILF DQG KHWHURVSHFLILF IHPDOHV SUDLULH DQG PHDGRZ YROH PDOHV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFHV ZKHQ IHPDOHV ZHUH GLHVWUXV EXW VLJQLILFDQW SUHIHUHQFHV ZKHQ IHPDOHV ZHUH HVWUXV 3LHUFH )HUJXVRQ t 'HZVEXU\ f ,Q FRQWUDVW LW DSSHDUV WKDW HVWURXV VWDWH GRHV QRW LQIOXHQFH FRQVSHFLILF SUHIHUHQFHV E\ PDOHV LQ WZR VSHFLHV EURZQ DQG FROODUHGf RI OHPPLQJV +XFN t %DQNV D VHH DOVR +XFN t %DQNV Ef FDFWXV PLFH &DUWHU t %UDQG f DQG &DOLIRUQLD PLFH &DUWHU t %UDQG f ,W LV OLNHO\ WKDW HVWURXV FRQGLWLRQ DIIHFWV WKH GLVSOD\ RI D SUHIHUHQFH UDWKHU WKDQ WKH DELOLW\ WR GLVFULPLQDWH EHWZHHQ FRQVSHFLILF DQG KHWHURVSHFLILF VWLPXOXV DQLPDOV DOWKRXJK QR HYLGHQFH \HW H[LVWV WR VXSSRUW WKLV K\SRWKHVLV 7KHUH LV HYLGHQFH WR VXJJHVW WKDW FRQVSHFLILF SUHIHUHQFHV FDQ EH LQIOXHQFHG E\ DGXOW H[SHULHQFHV :RUN ZLWK VWUDLQ SUHIHUHQFHV LQ KRXVH PLFH VXJJHVWV WKDW DGXOW VRFLDO H[SHULHQFH PD\ EH QHFHVVDU\ IRU WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI D FRQVSHFLILF SUHIHUHQFH $OERQHWWL t 'n8GLQH f 7KH ZRUN GLVFXVVHG KHUH KDV GHPRQVWUDWHG FRQVSHFLILF SUHIHUHQFHV LQ ODERUDWRU\ VHWWLQJV )LHOG LQYHVWLJDWLRQV RI WKLV SKHQRPHQRQ DUH VFDUFH 6WRGGDUW f UHSRUWHG WKDW ZRRG PLFH DQG VKRUWWDLOHG YROHV SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ HQWHUHG FRQVSHFLILFDOO\ VFHQWHG WUDSV RYHU HLWKHU RGRUOHVV

PAGE 29

RU KHWHURVSHFLILFDOO\ VFHQWHG WUDSV 7KHVH WUDSSLQJ GDWD VXSSOHPHQW WKH H[LVWLQJ ODERUDWRU\ HYLGHQFH DQG VXJJHVW WKDW SUHIHUHQFHV IRU FRQVSHFLILFV DUH D UHDO ILHOG SKHQRPHQRQ 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 0HPEHUV RI WKH 2SSRVLWH 6H[ /LNH FRQVSHFLILF SUHIHUHQFHV SUHIHUHQFHV IRU PHPEHUV RI WKH RSSRVLWH VH[ DUH D IXQGDPHQWDO FRPSRQHQW RI PDWH FKRLFH 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU KHWHURVH[XDOV KDYH EHHQ DVVHVVHG E\ DOORZLQJ D WHVW DQLPDO D FKRLFH EHWZHHQ f D PDOH DQG D IHPDOH FRQVSHFLILF f WKH RGRUV DORQH IURP PDOH DQG IHPDOH FRQVSHFLILFV RU f WKH RGRU RI DQ RSSRVLWHVH[HG DQLPDO YHUVXV D FOHDQ QRRGRU FKRLFH %RWK PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV RI DOPRVW DOO VSHFLHV VWXGLHG KDYH GLVSOD\HG KHWHURVH[XDO DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV ,Q WHVWV XVLQJ RSSRVLWHVH[HG FRQVSHFLILFV DV VWLPXOL SUHIHUHQFHV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ E\ IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV GH -RQJH %XUJHU YDQ +DDUHQ 2YHUGLMN t YDQ GH 3ROO GH -RQJH (HUODQG t YDQ GH 3ROO 'XGOH\ t 0RVV *LOPDQ t :HVWEURRN f DQG PDOH DQG IHPDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV %HDFK 6WHUQ &DUPLFKDHO t 5DQVRQ &DUPLFKDHO /DQGDXHU %DQNV t &DUWHU f 3UHIHUHQFHV EDVHG RQ RGRUV IURP RSSRVLWH VH[HG DQLPDOV KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ PDOH SUDLULH YROHV 7D\ORU t 'HZVEXU\ f IHPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV 6DZUH\ t 'HZVEXU\ f PDOH DQG IHPDOH PHDGRZ YROHV )HUNLQ t

PAGE 30

6HDPRQ )HUNLQ Df PDOH GHHU PLFH 'HZVEXU\ )HUJXVRQ +RGJHV t 7D\ORU f PDOH DQG IHPDOH ZRRG UDWV $XJXVW f PDOH EURZQ OHPPLQJV +XFN t %DQNV Df PDOH FROODUHG OHPPLQJV +XFN t %DQNV Df DQG PDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV /DQGDXHU %DQNV t &DUWHU f &RPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ D KHWHURVH[XDO RGRU DQG D FRQWURO RU QRRGRU FRQGLWLRQ KDYH VKRZQ JHQHUDOO\ FRQVLVWHQW SUHIHUHQFHV IRU WKH KHWHURVH[XDO RGRUV LQ VHYHUDO VSHFLHV LQFOXGLQJ GHHU PLFH 'RW\ IRU IHPDOHV EXW QRW IRU PDOHV 'HZVEXU\ HW DO IRU PDOHV DQG IHPDOHVf JROGHQ KDPVWHUV *UHJRU\ (QJHO t 3IDII -RKQVWRQ .ZDQ t -RKQVWRQ 0XUSK\ IRU PDOHV -RKQVWRQ IRU IHPDOHVf DQG PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV /\GHOO t 'RW\ f EXW QRW LQ HLWKHU PDOH RU IHPDOH ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH 'RW\ f 'ULFNDPHU f H[DPLQHG FDSWXUH UDWHV RI GHHU PLFH DQG ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH LQ WUDSV EDLWHG ZLWK HLWKHU PDOH RU IHPDOH RGRUV DQG QRWHG D VWURQJ KHWHURVH[XDO RGRU SUHIHUHQFH S f E\ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV RI ERWK VSHFLHV 6LPLODU ILQGLQJV IURP WUDS HQWU\ GDWD KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG IRU VKRUWWDLOHG YROHV E\ 6WRGGDUW f 7KHUH LV HYLGHQFH WR VXJJHVW WKDW VRFLDO DQG VH[XDO H[SHULHQFH LQIOXHQFHV KHWHURVH[XDO SUHIHUHQFHV 6H[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV SUHIHUUHG IHPDOH XULQH RGRU RYHU GLVWLOOHG ZDWHU RGRU ZKHUHDV VH[XDOO\ LQH[SHULHQFHG PDOHV GLG QRW /\GHOO t 'RW\ f $Q LQIOXHQFH RI VH[XDO H[SHULHQFH KDV DOVR EHHQ QRWHG IRU

PAGE 31

PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV 3IDII t 3IDIIPDQQ f IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV GH -RQJH HW DO f DQG PDOH PRQWDQH YROHV 6DZUH\ t 'HZVEXU\ f )XUWKHU VRFLDOO\ LVRODWHG PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV H[KLELWHG GHFUHDVHG SUHIHUHQFHV IRU LQYHVWLJDWLQJ IHPDOH RGRUV FRPSDUHG WR JURXSKRXVHG PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV %URZQ f ,Q FRQWUDVW WKHUH DSSHDUV WR EH QR HIIHFW RI VH[XDO H[SHULHQFH LQ JROGHQ KDPVWHUV *UHJRU\ HW DO -RKQVWRQ /DQGDXHU HW DO f FROODUHG OHPPLQJV +XFN t %DQNV f RU EURZQ OHPPLQJV +XFN t %DQNV f 6LPLODUO\ UHSURGXFWLYH FRQGLWLRQ PD\ SOD\ D UROH LQ KHWHURVH[XDO SUHIHUHQFHV LQ ODERUDWRU\ UDWV *RQDGHFWRPL]HG ODERUDWRU\ UDWV RI ERWK VH[HV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFHV %URZQ f ,Q RYDULHFWRPL]HG IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV LQMHFWLRQV RI WHVWRVWHURQH SURSLRQDWH RU HVWUDGLRO EHQ]RDWH VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQFUHDVHG SDUWQHU SUHIHUHQFH IRU PDOHV RYHU HVWURXV IHPDOHV GH -RQJH HW DO f 0HDGRZ YROHV RI ERWK VH[HV H[KLELWHG SUHIHUHQFHV IRU KHWHURVSHFLILF RGRU GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ 'XULQJ WKH QRQEUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ IHPDOHV SUHIHUUHG WKH RGRUV RI RWKHU IHPDOHV DQG PDOHV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFH )HUNLQ t 6HDPRQ f -XYHQLOHV RI WKLV VSHFLHV SUHIHUUHG RSSRVLWHVH[HG DGXOW FRQVSHFLILFV UHJDUGOHVV RI WKH VHDVRQ LQ ZKLFK WKH\ ZHUH WHVWHG )HUNLQ Ef

PAGE 32

3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 'LIIHUHQW 5HSURGXFWLYH &RQGLWLRQV 0DOH 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU (VWURXV )HPDOHV 7KH GDWD FRQFHUQLQJ PDOH SUHIHUHQFHV IRU HVWURXV RYHU GLHVWURXV IHPDOHV KDYH UHFHQWO\ EHHQ UHYLHZHG E\ 7D\ORU DQG 'HZVEXU\ LQ SUHVVf 7KHVH DXWKRUV QRWH WKDW UHODWLYHO\ IHZ VSHFLHV KDYH EHHQ VWXGLHG DQG VSHFLHV GLIIHUHQFHV H[LVW 0DOHV RI VRPH VSHFLHV GR QRW SUHIHU HVWURXV IHPDOHV DQG PDOHV RI RWKHU VSHFLHV GLVSOD\ SUHIHUHQFHV RQO\ XQGHU SDUWLFXODU FRQGLWLRQV 7D\ORU t 'HZVEXU\ LQ SUHVV S f 6SHFLHV LQ ZKLFK PDOHV KDYH VKRZQ D SUHIHUHQFH LQFOXGH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV &DUU /RHE t 'LVVLQJHU &DUU :\OLH t /RHE /\GHOO t 'RW\ 0HUN[ 0HUN[ 6ORE t YDQ GHU :HUII 7HQ %RVFK 3IDII t 3IDIIPDQQ 6WHUQ EXW VHH %URZQ f GHVHUW ZRRGUDWV )OHPLQJ &KHH t 9DFFDULQR f ,QGLDQ GHVHUW JHUELOV .XPDUL t 3UDNDVK f 0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV %ORFN 9ROSH t +D\HV f KRXVH PLFH +D\DVKL t .LPXUD 5RVH t 'ULFNDPHU f EURZQ OHPPLQJV +XFN t %DQNV f FROODUHG OHPPLQJV +XFN t %DQNV f DQG SUDLULH YROHV 7D\ORU DQG 'HZVEXU\ f 0DOHV RI WZR VSHFLHV GHHU PLFH 'HZVEXU\ HW DO f DQG PRQWDQH YROHV 7D\ORU DQG 'HZVEXU\ LQ SUHVVf DSSDUHQWO\ GR QRW SUHIHU HVWURXV IHPDOHV RYHU GLHVWURXV IHPDOHV

PAGE 33

0DOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV KDYH QRW VKRZQ SUHIHUHQFHV ZKHQ WKH FKRLFH LV EHWZHHQ DQ HVWURXV DQG D GLHVWURXV IHPDOH -RKQVWRQ .ZDQ t -RKQVWRQ /DQGDXHU HW DO f EXW GR VKRZ D SUHIHUHQFH ZKHQ RGRUV IURP VRLOHG EHGGLQJ DUH XVHG DV WKH VWLPXOL -RKQVWRQ +XFN /LVN .LP t (YDQV f RU LI WKH HVWURXV IHPDOH UHFHLYHV SK\VLFDO FRQWDFW IURP DQRWKHU PDOH SULRU WR WHVWLQJ &DUPLFKDHO f 0DOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV GLVFULPLQDWH DQG SUHIHU DQ LQWDFW IHPDOH RYHU D YDJLQHFWRPL]HG RQH ERWK ZKHQ RGRUV FXHV DORQH DUH SUHVHQW DQG ZKHQ WKH VWLPXOXV IHPDOHV DUH SUHVHQW EXW SK\VLFDO FRQWDFW LV SUHYHQWHG .ZDQ t -RKQVWRQ f (YHQ LQ WKLV VWXG\ PDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV GLG QRW H[KLELW D SUHIHUHQFH IRU HVWUXV YHUVXV GLHVWUXV LQ HLWKHU LQWDFW RU YDJLQHFWRPL]HG IHPDOHV 7KHUH LV HYLGHQFH WR VXJJHVW WKDW SULRU VH[XDO H[SHULHQFH E\ WKH PDOH PD\ EH QHFHVVDU\ IRU WKH GHPRQVWUDWLRQ RI D SUHIHUHQFH LQ PRVW EXW QRW DOO VSHFLHV VHH 7D\ORU t 'HZVEXU\ LQ SUHVVf 5HSURGXFWLYH FRQGLWLRQ SURYLGHV D VLPLODU LQIOXHQFH &DVWUDWHG PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV GLG QRW VKRZ DQ\ SUHIHUHQFH EXW LPSODQWV RI GLK\GURWHVWRVWHURQH '+7f UHVWRUHG HVWURXV SUHIHUHQFHV LQ VXFK ODERUDWRU\ UDWV 0HUN[ f (VWURXV SUHIHUHQFHV DSSHDU WR EH DW OHDVW SDUWLDOO\ PHGLDWHG E\ YDJLQDO EDFWHULDO IORUD (VWURXV IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV WUHDWHG ZLWK D YDJLQDO DQWLELRWLF VROXWLRQ

PAGE 34

ZHUH OHVV DWWUDFWLYH WR PDOHV WKDQ ZHUH XQWUHDWHG HVWURXV ODERUDWRU\ UDWV 0HUN[ HW DO f )HPDOH 3UHIHUHQFH IRU ,QWDFW 9HUVXV &DVWUDWHG 0DOHV )HPDOH SUHIHUHQFH IRU PDOHV RI GLIIHUHQW UHSURGXFWLYH FRQGLWLRQ KDV EHHQ DVVHVVHG LQ ILYH VSHFLHV E\ JLYLQJ IHPDOHV D FKRLFH EHWZHHQ LQWDFW DQG FDVWUDWHG PDOHV )HPDOH KRXVH PLFH SUHIHUUHG LQWDFW RYHU FDVWUDWHG PDOHV ZKHQ RGRUV DORQH SURYLGHG WKH VWLPXOXV 6FRWW t 3IDII f DQG ZKHQ LQWDFW DQG FDVWUDWHG PDOHV ZHUH XVHG DV VWLPXOXV DQLPDOV +D\DVKL t .LPDUL f )HPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV ZKHQ SUHVHQWHG ZLWK WHWKHUHG LQWDFW DQG FDVWUDWHG PDOHV SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG DQG FRSXODWHG ZLWK WKH LQWDFW PDOHV :HEVWHU :LOOLDPV t 'HZVEXU\ f (VWURXV 0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV OLNHZLVH SUHIHUUHG LQWDFW PDOHV RYHU FDVWUDWHG PDOHV $JUHQ t 0H\HUVRQ f )HPDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV SUHIHUUHG WKH RGRUV RI LQWDFW PDOHV RYHU WKH RGRUV RI FDVWUDWHG PDOHV DQG RI IHPDOHV -RKQVWRQ f 7KLV SUHIHUHQFH ZDV H[SUHVVHG PRVW VWURQJO\ E\ HVWURXV IHPDOHV EXW ZDV DOVR VKRZQ E\ GLHVWURXV DQG ODFWDWLQJ IHPDOHV 3UHJQDQW IHPDOHV VKRZHG D KLJK GHJUHH RI JHQHUDOL]HG LQWHUHVW LQ RGRUV RI FRQVSHFLILFV EXW DUH QRW GLIIHUHQWLDOO\ DWWUDFWHG WR SRWHQWLDO VH[XDO SDUWQHUV -RKQVWRQ S f /DERUDWRU\ UDWV KDYH EHHQ WKH PRVW VWXGLHG VSHFLHV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKLV SUHIHUHQFH ([SHULHQFHG IHPDOHV RI

PAGE 35

WKLV VSHFLHV UHJDUGOHVV RI WKHLU HVWURXV VWDWH FDQ GLVFULPLQDWH &DUU t &DXO f DQG SUHIHU LQWDFW PDOHV 'UHZHWW 'XGOH\ t 0RVV f DQG WKHLU RGRUV %URZQ &DUU HW DO 7D\ORU +DOOHU t 5HJDQ 7D\ORU 5HJDQ t +DOOHU f RYHU FDVWUDWHG PDOHV ,QH[SHULHQFHG IHPDOHV SUHIHU LQWDFW PDOH RGRUV RQO\ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH LQ HVWUXV 7KLV UHODWLRQVKLS KDV EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ DGXOW &DUU HW DO f DQG LPPDWXUH GD\V ROGf IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV &DUU :\OLH t /RHE f 2YDULHFWRPL]HG IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV IDLO WR GHPRQVWUDWH DQ\ SUHIHUHQFHV IRU LQWDFW PDOHV %URZQ f )HPDOH SUHIHUHQFH IRU LQWDFW PDOHV LV DOPRVW VXUHO\ PHGLDWHG E\ DQGURJHQ OHYHOV RI WKH VWLPXOXV DQLPDOV 'UHZHWW DQG 6SLWHUL f LQMHFWHG FDVWUDWHG PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV ZLWK HLWKHU GLK\GURWHVWRVWHURQH '+7 FDVWUDWHG PDOHV VPHOO OLNH LQWDFW PDOHVf '+7 DQG HVWUDGLRO EHQ]RDWH (% FDVWUDWHG PDOHV VPHOO DQG EHKDYH OLNH LQWDFW PDOHVf RU QRWKLQJ 3UHIHUHQFHV DVVHVVHG E\ VSHHG RI DSSURDFK LQ D VWUDLJKW UXQZD\ DSSDUDWXV LQGLFDWHG WKDW '+7(% PDOHV ZHUH SUHIHUUHG RYHU '+7 PDOHV DQG '+7 PDOHV ZHUH SUHIHUUHG RYHU FDVWUDWHG FRQWUROV ,Q DQRWKHU VWXG\ H[RJHQRXV LQMHFWLRQV RI WHVWRVWHURQH SURSLRQDWH 73f LQFUHDVHG WKH DWWUDFWLYHQHVV RI FDVWUDWHV DQG HOLPLQDWHG D IHPDOH SUHIHUHQFH IRU LQWDFW PDOHV 7D\ORU HW DO f 7KH DPRXQW RI 73 LQMHFWHG DIIHFWHG SUHIHUHQFHV IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV FRQVLVWHQWO\ SUHIHUUHG

PAGE 36

WR XULQH PDUN LQ WKH DUHD YDFDWHG E\ WKH PDOH ZLWK KLJKHU WHVWRVWHURQH OHYHOV 7D\ORU HW DO f 7KHVH VWXGLHV VXSSRUW WKH FRQFOXVLRQ WKDW IHPDOHV DUH FKRRVLQJ EDVHG RQ FKDQJHV LQ DQGURJHQGHSHQGHQW XULQDU\ E\SURGXFWV 7D\ORU HW DO S f $ UHODWHG IHPDOH FKRLFH WKDW KDV EHHQ H[DPLQHG LV D SUHIHUHQFH IRU VH[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG PDOHV RYHU VH[XDOO\ QDLYH PDOHV 7R GDWH VXFK D SUHIHUHQFH KDV RQO\ EHHQ UHSRUWHG IRU IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV LQ VWXGLHV XVLQJ VWLPXOXV DQLPDOV *LOPDQ t :HVWEURRN +LOO t 7KRPDV f DQG RGRUV DORQH 7D\ORU HW DO f )HPDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFH IRU VH[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG PDOHV RYHU QDLYH RQHV EXW GLG FKRRVH PDOHV SULPHG E\ FRQWDFW ZLWK DQ HVWURXV IHPDOH LPPHGLDWHO\ SULRU WR WHVWLQJ RYHU XQSULPHG PDOHV &DUPLFKDHO f 6H[XDOO\ LQH[SHULHQFHG SUDLULH YROHV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFH ZKHQ JLYHQ D FKRLFH EHWZHHQ D WHWKHUHG VH[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG DQG D WHWKHUHG QDLYH PDOH 3L]]XWR f ([DPLQDWLRQ RI IHPDOH SUHIHUHQFHV IRU H[SHULHQFHG PDOHV LV D ULFK WRSLF IRU IXWXUH VWXG\ 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 'RPLQDQW ,QGLYLGXDOV )HPDOHV RI VHYHUDO VSHFLHV SUHIHU GRPLQDQW PDOHV RU WKHLU RGRUV RYHU VXERUGLQDWH PDOHV 7\SLFDOO\ PDOHV DUH FODVVLILHG DV GRPLQDQWVXERUGLQDWH EDVHG XSRQ WKH RXWFRPH RI VWDJHG DJJUHVVLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV WKHQ IHPDOHV DUH

PAGE 37

DOORZHG D FKRLFH RI D GRPLQDQW DQG VXERUGLQDWH PDOH RU WKHLU RGRUVf IRU DVVRFLDWLRQ DQGRU FRSXODWLRQ ,Q VWXGLHV XVLQJ WHWKHU FKRLFH WHVWLQJ SUHIHUHQWLDO DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG FRSXODWLRQ ZLWK WKH GRPLQDQW PDOH KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ ODERUDWRU\ UDWV &DUU .LPPHO $QWKRQ\ t 6FKORFNHU f EURZQ OHPPLQJV +XFN t %DQNV Df JROGHQ KDPVWHUV %URZQ +XPP t )LVFKHU +XFN /LVN $OOLVRQ t 9DQ 'RQJHQ f DQG SUDLULH YROHV 6KDSLUR t 'HZVEXU\ f EXW QRW PRQWDQH YROHV 6KDSLUR t 'HZVEXU\ f )HPDOH KRXVH PLFH DVVRFLDWHG SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ ZLWK VXERUGLQDWHV EXW FRSXODWHG SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ ZLWK GRPLQDQW PDOHV 3DUPLJLDQL %UXQRQL t 3DVTXDOL f ,Q H[SHULPHQWV ZKHUH FRSXODWLRQ ZDV SUHYHQWHG SUHIHUHQWLDO YLVLWLQJ RI GRPLQDQW PDOHV KDV EHHQ VKRZQ E\ IHPDOH SUDLULH YROHV 6KDSLUR t 'HZVEXU\ f DQG IHPDOH EDQN YROHV +RIIPH\HU f EXW QRW IHPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV 6KDSLUR t 'HZVEXU\ f 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU GRPLQDQW PDOHV EDVHG RQ RGRU FXHV DORQH KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ E\ EURZQ OHPPLQJV +XFN t %DQNV E +XFN %DQNV t :DQJ f EDQN YROHV +RIIPH\HU f KRXVH PLFH -RQHV t 1RZHOO f DQG JROGHQ KDPVWHUV :KLWH )LVFKHU t 0HXQLHU D +XFN /LVN t *RUH f ,Q WZR VSHFLHV EURZQ OHPPLQJV +XFN HW DO f DQG JROGHQ KDPVWHUV :KLWH )LVFKHU t 0HXQLHU Ef HVWURXV IHPDOHV SUHIHUUHG WKH RGRUV RI FHUWDLQ PDOHV EHIRUH GRPLQDQFH WHVWLQJ ZDV EHJXQ 3UHIHUUHG PDOHV

PAGE 38

VXEVHTXHQWO\ HPHUJHG DV WKH GRPLQDQW PDOHV IROORZLQJ WHVWLQJ 7KLV HIIHFW LV PRVW SUREDEO\ PHGLDWHG E\ DQGURJHQ E\SURGXFWV LQ WKH XULQH DV VHYHUDO UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH HVWDEOLVKHG WKDW XULQH RGRUV LQ VRPH ZD\ LQGLFDWH VRFLDO VWDWXV HJ -RQHV t 1RZHOO /RPEDUGL t 9DQGHQEHUJK 0DUXQLDN 'HVMDUGLQV t %URQVRQ f 'RPLQDQFH PD\ DOVR EH LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH LQFUHDVH LQ VFHQW PDUNLQJ E\ GRPLQDQW PDOHV +XFN HW DO f DQG WKH UHGXFWLRQ LQ VFHQW PDUNLQJ E\ VXERUGLQDWHV 'HVMDUGLQV 0DUXQLDN t %URQVRQ f $V LV WKH FDVH IRU PDQ\ SUHIHUHQFHV WKH HVWURXV FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH IHPDOH LQIOXHQFHV WKH SUHIHUHQFH IRU GRPLQDQW PDOHV :KHUHDV HVWURXV EURZQ OHPPLQJV SUHIHUUHG GRPLQDQW PDOHV GLHVWURXV IHPDOHV SUHIHUUHG WKH RGRUV RI VXERUGLQDWH PDOHV +XFN HW DO f 6LPLODUO\ GLHVWURXV JROGHQ KDPVWHUV SUHIHUUHG WKH RGRUV RI VXEPLVVLYH PDOHV :KLWH HW DO Df DOWKRXJK D UHSOLFDWLRQ RI WKLV ZRUN GLG QRW FRQILUP WKH LQLWLDO ILQGLQJV DV GLHVWURXV IHPDOHV SUHIHUUHG FRQWURO RGRUV RYHU HLWKHU GRPLQDQW RU VXERUGLQDWH RGRUV :KLWH HW DO f 3UHIHUHQFHV %DVHG RQ *HQHWLF 'LIIHUHQFHV 7KH RSWLPDO EDODQFH EHWZHHQ LQEUHHGLQJ DQG RXWEUHHGLQJ KDV EHHQ GLVFXVVHG E\ %DWHVRQ f %DWHVRQ QRWHG WKDW ZKLOH WKH HYLGHQFH IRU RSWLPDO RXWEUHHGLQJ LV

PAGE 39

VWLOO UHODWLYHO\ PHDJUH S f DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH FRVWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQEUHHGLQJ DQG RXWEUHHGLQJ VXJJHVWV D JUHDW LPSRUWDQFH WR ILQGLQJ D PDWH WKDW LV RSWLPDOO\ UHODWHG 'HZVEXU\ Df KDV UHFHQWO\ UHYLHZHG WKH OLWHUDWXUH RQ NLQVKLSEDVHG PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV )LYH SDUDGLJPV IRU WKH VWXG\ RI WKLV DVSHFW RI PDWH FKRLFH ZHUH SUHVHQWHG EXW LW ZDV QRWHG WKDW WKH PRVW YDOLG SDUDGLJP FKRLFH WHVWV SHUPLWWLQJ DFWXDO FRSXODWLRQ KDV UHFHLYHG YHU\ OLPLWHG XVH 0DOH KRXVH PLFH 'n8GLQH t 3DUWULGJH *LOGHU t 6ODWHU +D\DVKL t .LPXUD :LQQ t 9HVWDO
PAGE 40

0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV $JUHQ Df DQG FRPPRQ YROHV %ROKXLV 6WULMNVWUD 0RRU t YDQ GHU /HQGH f KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG WR VKRZ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU XQUHODWHG LQGLYLGXDOV ,Q FRQWUDVW PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV SUHIHUUHG IHPDOH VLEOLQJV LQ WKH ZRUN RI 'HQL 9RFLQR DQG (SVWHLQ f 0XFK PRUH ZRUN LV QHHGHG LQ WKLV DUHD EHIRUH GHILQLWLYH FRQFOXVLRQV FDQ EH UHDFKHG VHH 'HZVEXU\ Df ,QFHVW DYRLGDQFH DQG UHSURGXFWLYH VXSSUHVVLRQ SURYLGH VXSSRUWLQJ HYLGHQFH WKDW DQLPDOV SUHIHU WR PDWH ZLWK XQUHODWHG LQGLYLGXDOV ,Q ODERUDWRU\ VWXGLHV VLEOLQJ SDLUV KRXVHG WRJHWKHU JHQHUDOO\ VKRZ D UHGXFWLRQ LQ EUHHGLQJ FRPSDUHG WR QRQVLEOLQJ SDLUV KRXVHG WRJHWKHU 6SHFLHV LQ ZKLFK UHSURGXFWLYH VXSSUHVVLRQ DQG LQEUHHGLQJ DYRLGDQFH KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG LQFOXGH SUDLULH YROHV %DW]OL *HW] t +XUOH\ &DUWHU t *HW] *DYLVK +RIPDQQ t *HW] f JUD\WDLOHG YROHV %R\G t %ODXVWHLQ f SLQH YROHV 6FKDGOHU f &DOLIRUQLD YROHV %DW]OL HW DO f GHHU PLFH 'HZVEXU\ E +LOO f FDFWXV PLFH 'HZVEXU\ Ef ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH :ROII t /XQG\ :ROII /XQG\ t %DFFXV f 0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV $JUHQ Ef ODERUDWRU\ UDWV +HSSHU >TXRWHG LQ +HSSHU @f DQG KRXVH PLFH
PAGE 41

,Q DGGLWLRQ WR PDWH FKRLFH EDVHG RQ NLQVKLS DQG GHJUHH RI UHODWHGQHVV PXURLG URGHQWV PD\ EDVH D FKRLFH RI PDWHV RQ RWKHU JHQHWLF IDFWRUV :RUN ZLWK LQEUHG KRXVH PLFH VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH PDMRU KLVWRFRPSDWLELOLW\ FRPSOH[ 0+&f RI JHQHV LQIOXHQFHV PDWH FKRLFH LQ WKLV VSHFLHV VHH %HDXFKDPS
PAGE 42

LQWHUDFWLRQV RI PDQ\ VSHFLHV 'RPLQDQWVXERUGLQDWH UHODWLRQV WHUULWRULDO LQWHUDFWLRQV SDUHQWVLEOLQJ UHODWLRQV DQG PDWLQJ HQFRXQWHUV DUH DIIHFWHG E\ SULRU H[SHULHQFH ZLWK WKH VDPH LQGLYLGXDOV DQG WKH RXWFRPHV RI WKHVH LQWHUDFWLRQV PD\ EH FRQWLQJHQW XSRQ LQGLYLGXDO UHFRJQLWLRQ 7KH UROH RI RGRUV LQ LQGLYLGXDO UHFRJQLWLRQ KDV EHHQ VXPPDUL]HG E\ %URZQ f DQG +DOSLQ f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f SUHIHU WKH QRYHO PDOH )UDPHV f RU VKRZ QR SUHIHUHQFH DW DOO &DUU )UDPHV t &RVWDQ]R )UDPHV t 0DVWURPDWWHR f 'DWD IURP PDOH FROODUHG OHPPLQJV DOVR DUH LQFRQVLVWHQW VHH 7DEOH f DOWKRXJK WKLV GLVFUHSDQF\ PD\ EH DWWULEXWDEOH WR GLIIHUHQW WHVWLQJ FRQGLWLRQV )XUWKHU WKHUH DUH LQWHUVSHFLILF DQG LQWHUVH[XDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH GLVSOD\ RI SUHIHUHQFHV 7KHUH PD\ EH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ PDOH DQG IHPDOH PDWLQJ

PAGE 43

7DEOH 6WXGLHV $VVHVVLQJ 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 1RYHO 9HUVXV )DPLOLDU &RQVSHFLILFV LQ 0XURLG 5RGHQWV 6RHFLHV 6H[ 6WLPXOXV 3UHIHUHQFH 6WXGY 3UDLULH YROHV 0DOH 2GRU )DPLOLDU 1HZPDQ t +DOSLQ )HPDOH 2GRU )DPLOLDU 1HZPDQ t +DOSLQ )HPDOH $QLPDO )DPLOLDU 6KDSLUR HW DO 0RQWDQH YROHV )HPDOH $QLPDO 1RQH 6KDSLUR HW DO &ROODUHG /HPPLQJV 0DOH 2GRU )DPLOLDU +XFN t %DQNV 0DOH $QLPDO )DPLOLDU +XFN t %DQNV 0DOH 2GRU 1RYHO +XFN HW DO )HPDOH 2GRU )DPLOLDU +XFN t %DQNV )HPDOH $QLPDO )DPLOLDU +XFN t %DQNV %URZQ /HPPLQJV 0DOH 2GRU 1RYHO +XFN HW DO )HPDOH $QLPDO )DPLOLDU &RRSHUVPLWK t %DQNV *ROGHQ +DPVWHUV 0DOH $QLPDO 1RYHO -RKQVWRQ t 5DVPXVVHQ )HPDOH $QLPDO 1RYHO /HVWHU t *RU]DOND 0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV 0DOH $QLPDO 1RYHO $JUHQ t 0H\HUVRQ 0DOH $QLPDO 1RQH $JUHQ t 0H\HUVRQ

PAGE 44

7DEOH f§FRQWLQXHG 6RHFLHV 6H[ 6WLPXOXV 3UHIHUHQFH 6WXGY 0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV )HPDOH $QLPDO )DPLOLDU $JUHQ t 0H\HUVRQ )HPDOH $QLPDO 1RYHO $JUHQ t 0H\HUVRQ )HPDOH $QLPDO )DPLOLDU $JUHQ t 0H\HUVRQ )HPDOH 2GRU )DPLOLDU 'DO\ /DERUDWRU\ UDWV 0DOH 2GRU 1RQH )UDPHV t 0DVWURPDWWHR 0DOH $QLPDO 1RQH =XFNHU t :DGH 0DOH 2GRU 1RYHO &DUU +LUVFK t %DOD]V 0DOH 2GRU 1RYHO1RQH &DUU )UDPHV t &RVWDQ]R )HPDOH 2GRU 1RQH &DUU )UDPHV t &RVWDQ]R )HPDOH 2GRU 1RQH )UDPHV t 0DVWURPDWWHR )HPDOH 2GRU 1RYHO )UDPHV )HPDOH 2GRU )DPLOLDU &DUU HW DO 'HVHUW :RRGUDWV 0DOH 2GRU )DPLOLDU )OHPLQJ HW DO 8! -

PAGE 45

VWUDWHJLHV LQ ODERUDWRU\ UDWV EURZQ OHPPLQJV DQG JHUELOV VHH 7DEOH f 7KH SDWWHUQ GLVSOD\HG JHQHUDOO\ FRUUHODWHV ZHOO ZLWK PDWLQJ V\VWHP 0RQRJDPRXV VSHFLHV VXFK DV SUDLULH YROHV &DUWHU *HW] t &RKHQ3DUVRQV f DQG 0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV $JUHQ Ff KDYH JHQHUDOO\ VKRZQ SUHIHUHQFHV IRU IDPLOLDU LQGLYLGXDOV ZKHUHDV SRO\JDPRXV VSHFLHV KDYH SUHIHUUHG QRYHO SDUWQHUV RU VKRZQ QR SUHIHUHQFH &DUU .UDPHV DQG &RVWDQ]R f KDYH VXJJHVWHG WKDW SULRU VH[XDO H[SHULHQFH LQIOXHQFHV IDPLOLDULW\ SUHIHUHQFHV 0DOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV JLYHQ H[WHQVLYH SRO\JDPRXV H[SHULHQFH SUHIHUUHG WKH RGRU RI QRYHO ODERUDWRU\ UDWV ZKHUHDV PRQRJDPRXV PDOHV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFH 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 8QPDWHG YHUVXV 0DWHG ,QGLYLGXDOV 0DWLQJ ZLWK UHFHQWO\ PDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV UHSUHVHQWV D SRWHQWLDO ULVN IRU ERWK PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV VHH EHORZf $FFRUGLQJO\ ERWK VH[HV VKRXOG KDYH D VLPLODU PDWLQJ VWUDWHJ\ IRU WKLV FULWHULRQ QDPHO\ DQ DYRLGDQFH RI UHFHQWO\ PDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV DQG D FRUUHVSRQGLQJ SUHIHUHQFH IRU XQPDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV KDYH EHHQ WHVWHG LQ VHYHUDO VSHFLHV RI PXURLG URGHQWV 0DOH DQG IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV UHVSRQG SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ WR WKH RGRUV IURP IUHVK LQGLYLGXDOV RYHU WKRVH WKDW KDG PDWHG IRU RQH HMDFXODWLRQ .UDPHV t 0DVWURPDWWHR f 7KHVH DXWKRUV

PAGE 46

FRQFOXGHG WKDW LQ ODERUDWRU\ UDWV LW ZRXOG DSSHDU WKDW GXULQJ FRSXODWLRQ FUXFLDO RGRU YDULDEOHV WR ZKLFK WKH PDOH UHVSRQGV DUH IUHVKQHVV DQG QRYHOW\ S f ,Q FRQWUDVW =XFNHU DQG :DGH f QRWHG WKDW PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV LQGLVFULPLQDWHO\ PDWHG ZKHQ IUHVK DQG PDWHG IHPDOHV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG 6H[XDOO\ VDWLDWHG PDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV OLNHZLVH VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFH ZKHQ JLYHQ D FKRLFH EHWZHHQ IUHVK DQG PDWHG DQHVWKHWL]HG IHPDOHV LQ D ORUGRVLV SRVLWLRQ -RKQVWRQ t 5DVPXVVHQ f )HPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG PDOHV LQ WHVWV SHUPLWWLQJ FRSXODWLRQ DQG LQ WHVWV ZKHUH FRSXODWLRQ ZDV SUHYHQWHG 6DZUH\ f +RZHYHU IHPDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV GLVFULPLQDWHG DQG SUHIHUUHG UHVWHG DQHVWKHWL]HG PDOHV RYHU UHFHQWO\ PDWHG DQHVWKHWL]HG RQHV +XFN /LVN 3£UHQWH t 3ULQFLSDWR f 0DOH EURZQ OHPPLQJV DQG PDOH FROODUHG OHPPLQJV SUHIHUUHG WKH RGRUV RI XQPDWHG RYHU PDWHG IHPDOHV +XFN %DQNV t &RRSHUVPLWK f 7KLV SUHIHUHQFH ZDV VKRZQ E\ VH[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG PDOHV DQG E\ VH[XDOO\ VDWLDWHG PDOHV EXW QRW E\ VH[XDOO\ QDLYH PDOHV 0DOH SUHIHUHQFH IRU XQPDWHG RYHU PDWHG IHPDOHV KDV EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ SUDLULH YROHV )HUJXVRQ )XHQWHV 6DZUH\ DQG 'HZVEXU\ f SUHVHQWHG PDOH SUDLULH YROHV ZLWK D FKRLFH EHWZHHQ WZR IHPDOHV RQH ZKLFK KDG UHFHQWO\ EHHQ PDWHG WR D QRQH[SHULPHQWDO PDOH IRU RQH HMDFXODWLRQ DQG RQH WKDW KDG QRW 0DOHV SUHIHUUHG XQPDWHG IHPDOHV LQ ERWK WHWKHU WHVWV DQG DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WHVWV 3URFHGXUHV ZHUH WKHQ UHSHDWHG XVLQJ PRQWDQH YROHV 1R SUHIHUHQFHV

PAGE 47

ZHUH H[KLELWHG LQ WKH WHWKHU WHVWV RQO\ D ZHDN SUHIHUHQFH ZDV VKRZQ LQ DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WULDOV 2WKHU 3UHIHUHQFHV %ORQGH FRDW FRORU LV D VLPSOH UHFHVVLYH WUDLW LQ SUDLULH YROHV 7KH EORQGH FRORU PRUSK LV H[WUHPHO\ UDUH LQ ZLOG SUDLULH YROH SRSXODWLRQV DWWULEXWDEOH WR WKH UHFHVVLYH QDWXUH RI WKLV WUDLW DQG LQFUHDVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ WR SUHGDWLRQ *HW] DQG 3L]]XWR f FRQGXFWHG D WHWKHU FKRLFH VWXG\ ZLWK EORQGH DQG QRUPDO FRORUHG YROHV DV VWLPXOXV DQLPDOV 5HVXOWV UHYHDOHG D SUHIHUHQFH E\ HDFK FRORU PRUSK IRU LQGLYLGXDOV RI WKH RSSRVLWH FRDW FRORU 7KHVH DXWKRUV VSHFXODWH WKDW VXFK SUHIHUHQFHV FRQWULEXWH WR VXSSUHVVLRQ RI H[SUHVVLRQ RI WKH EORQGH DOOHOH LQ SUDLULH YROH SRSXODWLRQV S f (GZDUGV DQG %DUQDUG f LQIHFWHG IHPDOH KRXVH PLFH ZLWK ODUYDH RI WKH SDUDVLWLF 7ULFKLQHOOD VSLUDOLV WKHQ VWDJHG HQFRXQWHUV ZLWK XQLQIHFWHG PDOHV 6H[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG PDOHV LQYHVWLJDWHG LQIHFWHG IHPDOHV PRUH DQG ZHUH OHVV OLNHO\ WR DVVRFLDWH DQG PDWH ZLWK WKHP FRPSDUHG WR PDOHV SDLUHG ZLWK XQLQIHFWHG IHPDOHV 6H[XDOO\ LQH[SHULHQFHG PDOHV UHVSRQGHG VLPLODUO\ WR LQIHFWHG DQG XQLQIHFWHG IHPDOHV ,Q D IROORZXS VWXG\ LQIHFWHG DQG XQLQIHFWHG PDOH KRXVH PLFH ZHUH JURXSHG WRJHWKHU (GZDUGV f 6RFLDO EHKDYLRUV E\ LQIHFWHG KRXVH PLFH ZHUH UHGXFHG ZKHUHDV LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI LQIHFWHG KRXVH PLFH E\

PAGE 48

XQLQIHFWHG KRXVH PLFH ZDV LQFUHDVHG $OWKRXJK WKHVH VWXGLHV KDYH QRW VKRZQ GLUHFWO\ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU KHDOWK\ LQGLYLGXDOV WKH UHVXOWV VXJJHVW VXFK D UHODWLRQVKLS VHH DOVR +DPLOWRQ t =XN f )LVFKHU 2OVHQ t 0HXQLHU f SUHVHQWHG RXWEUHG IHPDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV ZLWK RGRUV IURP LQEUHG DQG RXWEUHG PDOHV 6LJQLILFDQW SUHIHUHQFHV IRU RXWEUHG PDOHV ZHUH QRWHG IRU HVWURXV IHPDOHV" GLHVWURXV IHPDOHV H[KLELWHG QR SUHIHUHQFHV ,I WKHVH UHVXOWV DUH JHQHUDOL]DEOH WKHQ IHPDOH PDWH VHOHFWLRQ PD\ SURYLGH D IXUWKHU DGYDQWDJH WR RXWEUHHGLQJ 5RGHQWV RI PDQ\ VSHFLHV SURGXFH XOWUDVRQLF YRFDOL]DWLRQV 869Vf SULRU WR GXULQJ DQG DIWHU FRSXODWLRQ VHH 3LHUFH 6DZUH\ t 'HZVEXU\ IRU D UHYLHZf *ROGHQ KDPVWHUV RI ERWK VH[HV DSSURDFKHG QDWXUDO DQG V\QWKHWLF XOWUDVRXQGV SURGXFHG LQ RQH DUP RI D
PAGE 49

)LW]SDWULFN t /DZ 7D\ORU t :HLVV :HEVWHU HW DO f DQG WKH EDVHV IRU WKHVH SUHIHUHQFHV UHPDLQ XQFOHDU 3UHIHUUHG PDOHV DFKLHYHG KLJKHU OHYHOV RI FRSXODWRU\ DFWLYLW\ WKDQ QRQSUHIHUUHG PDOHV 7D\ORU t :HLVV :HEVWHU HW DO f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

PAGE 50

7DEOH 6XPPDU\ /LVWLQJ RI 0DWLQJ DQG $VVRFLDWLRQ 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU 0XURLG 5RGHQWV 6SHFLHV 3UHIHUHQFHV GLVSOD\HG E\ 6SHFLHV 5HSURG 6H[XDO 1RYHO 0DWHG 6SHFLHV 6H[ &RQVS 6H[ &RQG ([S 'RPLQ .LQ )DPLO 8QPDWHG 2WKHU 0RQWDQH YROHV 0 &RQVS 2SS 1RQH ) 1RQH 2SS ,QWDFW 3UDLULH YROHV 0 &RQVS 2SS (VWURXV ) &RQVS ,QWDFW *UD\WDLOHG YROHV 0 &RQVS ) 1RQH 0HDGRZ YROHV 0 &RQVS 2SS ) 1RQH 2SS &RQVS %DQN YROHV 0 &RQVS 1RQH 1RQH 1RQH 1RQH )DPLO 8QPDWHG 1RQH 'RP )DPLO &RDW &RORU ) 'RP

PAGE 51

7DEOH FRQWLQXHG 3UHIHUHQFHV GLVSOD\HG E\ 6SHFLHV 6SHFLHV 5HSURG 6H[XDO 1RYHO 0DWHG 6H[ &RQVS 6H[ &RQG ([S 'RPLQ .LQ )DPLO 8QPDWHG 2WKHU &RPPRQ YROHV 0 &RQVS &RPPRQ YROHV ) &RQVS %URZQ OHPPLQJV 0 &RQVS 2SS (VWURXV ) &ROODUHG OHPPLQJV 0 &RQVS 2SS (VWURXV ) *ROGHQ KDPVWHUV 0 &RQVS 2SS (VWURXV ) &RQVS 2SS ,QWDFW 8QUHO 1RYHO 8QPDWHG 'RUQ )DPLO 1RYHO 8QPDWHG )DPLO )DPLO 1RYHO 1RQH 869V 1RQH 'RP 1RYHO 8QPDWHG 869V 2XWEUHG PDOHV WR

PAGE 52

7DEOH f§FRQWLQXHG 3UHIHUHQFHV GLVSOD\HG E\ 6SHFLHV 6SHFLHV 5HSURG 6H[XDO 1RYHO 0DWHG 6H[ &RQVS 6H[ &RQG ([S 'RPLQ .LQ )DPLO 8QPDWHG 2WKHU 5RPDQLDQ KDPVWHUV 0 ) &RQVS 7XUNLVK KDPVWHUV 0 &RQVS ) &RQVS ,QGLDQ GHVHUW 0 (VWURXV JHUELOV ) 0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV 0 (VWURXV 8QUHO 1RYHO ) ,QWDFW 8QUHO 1RYHO )DPLO A 8!

PAGE 53

7DEOH f§FRQWLQXHG 3UHIHUHQFHV GLVSOD\HG E\ 6SHFLHV 6SHFLHV 6H[ &RQVS 6H[ 5HSURG &RQG 6H[XDO ([S 'RPLQ .LQ 1RYHO )DPLO 0DWHG 8QPDWHG 2WKHU /DERUDWRU\ UDWV 0 2SS (VWURXV 5HO 1RYHO 8QPDWHG 1RQH 1RQH ) 2SS ,QWDFW ([S 'RUQ 8QPDWHG 0DOH 869V +RXVH PLFH 0 &RQVS (VWURXV 8QUHO 0+& 7ORFXV 8QLQIHFWHG ) &RQVS ,QWDFW 'RUQ 8QUHO 0+& 1RQH 6XE 7ORFXV 0DOH 869V 3\JP\ PLFH 0 &RQVS ) &RQVS

PAGE 54

7DEOH f§FRQWLQXHG 3UHIHUHQFHV GLVSOD\HG E\ 6SHFLHV 6SHFLHV 5HSURG 6H[XDO 1RYHO 0DWHG 6H[ &RQVS 6H[ &RQG ([S 'RPLQ .LQ )DPLO 8QPDWHG 2WKHU 6 JUDVVKRSSHU PLFH 0 &RQVS ) &RQVS 'HHU 0LFH 0 1RQH &RQVS ) &RQVS 0H[LFDQ PLFH 0 1RQH ) 1RQH :KLWHIRRWHG PLFH 0 1RQH &RQVS ) 1RQH &RQVS 2SS 1RQH 2SS ,QWDFW 1RQH 1RQH 8O

PAGE 55

7DEOH f§FRQWLQXHG 3UHIHUHQFHV GLVSOD\HG E\ 6SHFLHV 5HSURG 6H[XDO 1RYHO 0DWHG 6SHFLHV 6H[ &RQVS 6H[ &RQG ([S 'RPLQ .LQ )DPLO 8QPDWHG 2WKHU &DOLIRUQLD PLFH 0 &RQVS ) &RQVS &DFWXV PLFH 0 &RQVS ) &RQVS :RRG UDWV 0 2SS ) 2SS 'HVHUW ZRRG UDWV 0 (VWURXV )DPLO ) 1RWH 0 0DOH ) )HPDOH &RQVS &RQVSHFLILF 2SS 2SSRVLWH ([S ([SHULHQFHG 'RP 'RPLQDQW 6XE 6XERUGLQDWH )DPLO )DPLOLDU 8QGHFLGHG %ODQN VSDFHV LQGLFDWH WKH DEVHQFH RI UHOHYDQW VWXGLHV R?

PAGE 56

VXFFHVVIXO PDWLQJ DQG DV ZRXOG EH H[SHFWHG PRVW EXW QRW DOOf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nV VH[ UHSURGXFWLYH FRQGLWLRQ DQG GRPLQDQFH VWDWXV $ VLPSOH VWUDWHJ\ RI DWWUDFWLRQ WR VWURQJHU OHYHOV RI DQGURJHQ

PAGE 57

RGRUV ZRXOG DFFRXQW IRU IHPDOH SUHIHUHQFHV IRU VHYHUDO FULWHULD 6LPLODUO\ SULRU DVVRFLDWLRQ PHGLDWHV QRW RQO\ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU QRYHO YHUVXV IDPLOLDU EXW DOVR DSSDUHQWO\ IRU NLQ EDVHG SUHIHUHQFHV ,W LV DSSDUHQW IURP WKLV UHYLHZ WKDW SUHIHUHQFHV DUH QRW KDUGZLUHG FRPSRQHQWV RI PDWH VHOHFWLRQ 0DQ\ SUHIHUHQFHV DUH GLUHFWO\ LQIOXHQFHG E\ HDUO\ H[SHULHQFH VHH DOVR %DWHVRQ 'n8GLQH t $OLHYD f DQG DUH ODELOH HYHQ LQ DGXOWKRRG ,Q PDQ\ LQVWDQFHV H[SUHVVLRQ RI PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV LV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH LQGLYLGXDOnV UHSURGXFWLYH FRQGLWLRQ 'LIIHUHQFHV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI VHDVRQ SULRU VH[XDO H[SHULHQFH DQG IHPDOHnV HVWURXV FRQGLWLRQ KDYH EHHQ QRWHG IRU RQH RU PRUH FULWHULD )XWXUH 'LUHFWLRQV 7KH ZRUN RI PDQ\ UHVHDUFKHUV KDV \LHOGHG YDOXDEOH LQVLJKWV LQWR PDWH FKRLFH E\ PXURLG URGHQWV ,W LV DSSDUHQW WKDW PRUH ZRUN LV QHHGHG WR HOXFLGDWH IXUWKHU WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKHVH FULWHULD IRU DOO URGHQW VSHFLHV $GGLWLRQDOO\ RWKHU DVSHFWV RI PDWH FKRLFH QHHG WR EH VWXGLHG $ IHZ DVSHFWV FDQ EH PHQWLRQHG KHUH )LUVW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI DVVRFLDWLRQ SUHIHUHQFHV WR PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV QHHGV WR EH DVVHVVHG PRUH FDUHIXOO\ 6WXGLHV ZKLFK KDYH XVHG ERWK RI WKHVH PHDVXUHV WR DVVHVV PDWH FKRLFH KDYH JHQHUDOO\ IRXQG DQ DJUHHPHQW EHWZHHQ WLPH VSHQW LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG DPRXQW RI FRSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU

PAGE 58

+RZHYHU DVVRFLDWLRQ SUHIHUHQFHV DQG PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV PD\ GLIIHU IRU VRPH VSHFLHV LQ VRPH LQVWDQFHV HJ 3DUPLJLDQL HW DO f ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQV RI DVVRFLDWLRQ SUHIHUHQFHV DV LQGLFDWLYH RI PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV VKRXOG EH PDGH ZLWK FDXWLRQ XQWLO WKLV UHODWLRQVKLS LV DVVHVVHG PRUH IXOO\ /LWWOH ZRUN RQ SK\VLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VXFK DV VL]H DQG DJH KDV EHHQ FRQGXFWHG $JH LQ SDUWLFXODU LV D FULWHULRQ IRU FKRLFH LQ VXFK GLYHUVH JURXSV DV SULPDWHV 5RELQVRQ f IHUDO SLJHRQV %XUOH\ t 0RUDQ f FULFNHWV =XN f DQG EXWWHUIOLHV :LNOXQG t )RUVEHUJ f $JH PD\ EH D FULWHULRQ IRU PDWH FKRLFH LQ URGHQWV 7KHUH LV H[LVWLQJ UHVHDUFK IRU ODERUDWRU\ UDWV ZKLFK LQGLFDWHV GHOHWHULRXV HIIHFWV RI DJH RQ SUHJQDQF\ LQLWLDWLRQ DQG F\FOLQJ LQ IHPDOHV 'DYLV *UD\ t 'HZVEXU\ +HQGULFNV /HKPDQ t 2VZDOW f DQG RQ WKH SRWHQF\ RI WKH PDOHnV HMDFXODWHV 7RQHU t $GOHU f 6ZDQVRQ 'HVMDUGLQV DQG 7XUHN f IDLOHG WR ILQG VLJQLILFDQW GHFUHPHQWV LQ FRSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU LQ DJHG PDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV EXW +XFN /LVN DQG *X\WRQ f KDYH UHSRUWHG WKDW DJHG IHPDOHV RI WKLV VSHFLHV UHTXLUHG JUHDWHU DPRXQWV RI YDJLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ IRU WKH LQLWLDWLRQ RI SUHJQDQF\ 7KH HIIHFWV RI DJH RQ PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV PHULW IXUWKHU DWWHQWLRQ )XWXUH UHVHDUFK ZLWK SUHJQDQW RU ODFWDWLQJ IHPDOHV DOVR KROGV JUHDW SURPLVH DV LW FDQ EH DUJXHG WKDW IHPDOHV LQ WKH ILHOG DUH PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ LQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ

PAGE 59

'ULFNDPHU f KDV H[DPLQHG RGRU SUHIHUHQFHV LQ SUHJQDQW IHPDOH KRXVH PLFH 'XULQJ WKH HDUO\ GD\V RI JHVWDWLRQ IHPDOHV SUHIHUUHG WKH RGRUV RI WKH VWXG PDOH DQG DYRLGHG WKH RGRUV RI D VWUDQJH PDOH $V JHVWDWLRQ FRQWLQXHG RGRU SUHIHUHQFHV ZHUH UHGXFHG )HPDOHV DYRLGHG ERWK PDOH RGRUV WRZDUG WKH HQG RI JHVWDWLRQ $YRLGDQFH RI PDOHV DQG WKHLU RGRUV KDV DOVR EHHQ QRWHG IRU SUDLULH YROH IHPDOHV GXULQJ JHVWDWLRQ 3UDWHU t 5LJOH\ f DOWKRXJK PHWKRGRORJLFDO LVVXHV PDNH WKLV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ VXEMHFW WR FDXWLRQ 3UHJQDQW IHPDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV DSSURDFKHG FRQVSHFLILF RGRUV IURP LQWDFW DQG FDVWUDWHG PDOHV EXW GLG QRW SUHIHU HLWKHU RGRU -RKQVWRQ f

PAGE 60

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t %UDGEXU\ S f 7KLV EHKDYLRUDO HQVHPEOH UHIOHFWV HFRORJLFDO DQG SK\VLRORJLFDO FRQVWUDLQWV RQ WKH VSHFLHV DQG SURGXFHV D PDWLQJ V\VWHP FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI PRVW PHPEHUV RI D JLYHQ SRSXODWLRQ 'HZVEXU\ Ef 2QH W\SH RI PDWLQJ V\VWHP PRQRJDP\ LV FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI OHVV WKDQ WKUHH SHUFHQW RI PDPPDOLDQ VSHFLHV .OHLPDQ f 'HZVEXU\ Ef KDV SURSRVHG

PAGE 61

WKDW PRQRJDP\ FDQ EH GHILQHG LQ WHUPV RI WKUHH GLPHQVLRQV 7KH WKUHH GLPHQVLRQV DUH H[FOXVLYLW\ RI PDWLQJ MRLQW SDUHQWDO FDUH DQG SUHIHUHQWLDO RU H[FOXVLYH DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ D SDUWLFXODU PDOH DQG IHPDOH $QLPDOV DUH FRQVLGHUHG PRQRJDPRXV LI WKH\ PHHW WZR RI WKH WKUHH GLPHQVLRQV $OWKRXJK RWKHU GHILQLWLRQV YDU\ WKH\ DUH JHQHUDOO\ EDVHG RQ RQH RU PRUH RI WKHVH GLPHQVLRQV 7KXV :LWWHQEHUJHU DQG 7LOVRQ f SURSRVH WKDW PRQRJDP\ LV D SURORQJHG DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG HVVHQWLDOO\ H[FOXVLYH PDWLQJ UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ RQH PDOH DQG RQH IHPDOH S f :LFNOHU DQG 6HLEW f GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ PRQRJDP\ DV D VRFLDO V\VWHP DQG PRQRJDP\ DV D PDWLQJ V\VWHP 7KH\ DUJXH WKDW WKH ODWWHU LV GHILQHG E\ H[FOXVLYLW\ RI FRSXODWLRQ S f .OHLPDQ f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t %LUQH\

PAGE 62

f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t -LNH f 'LHW FRQVLVWV PDLQO\ RI VXFFXOHQW IRUEV EURDGOHDI KHUEDFHRXV SODQWVf DQG JUDVVHV *HW] f )RUEV DUH FULWLFDO IRU VXUYLYDO DQG UHSURGXFWLRQ &ROH t %DW]OL f DQG WKHLU ORZ DYDLODELOLW\ DQG GLVSHUVHG GLVWULEXWLRQ SURYLGH WKH HFRORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV IRU WHUULWRULDOLW\ DQG LQ WKH FDVH RI SUDLULH YROHV PRQRJDP\ 2VWIHOG f ([WHQVLYH ILHOG DQG ODERUDWRU\ UHVHDUFK KDV HVWDEOLVKHG WKDW SUDLULH YROHV H[KLELW D PRQRJDPRXV PDWLQJ V\VWHP XQGHU PRVW HFRORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV VHH &DUWHU t *HW] &DUWHU HW DO *HW] t &DUWHU f 7UDSSLQJ GDWD KDYH SURYLGHG VWURQJ HYLGHQFH IRU FRQWLQXHG PDOHIHPDOH DVVRFLDWLRQV &DSWXUHV RI PDOHIHPDOH SDLUV

PAGE 63

ZHUH IUHTXHQW DQG HTXDOO\ OLNHO\ GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ DQG QRQEUHHGLQJ VHDVRQV *HW] &DUWHU t *DYLVK f 0DOHIHPDOH SDLUV ZHUH IUHTXHQWO\ UHFDSWXUHG WRJHWKHU VRPH DV ODWH DV ZHHNV DIWHU WKH LQLWLDO FDSWXUH +RIPDQQ *HW] t *DYLVK f WUDFNHG KHWHURVH[XDO SDLUV YLD UDGLRWHOHPHWU\ 5HVXOWV LQGLFDWHG WKDW RU SDLUV UHPDLQHG WRJHWKHU DQG VKDUHG D FRPPRQ QHVWLQJ EXUURZ GXULQJ WKH GD\ WUDFNLQJ SHULRG 7UDSSLQJ GDWD GHULYHG IURP QHVWV RI WZR ILHOG SRSXODWLRQV LQGLFDWHG WKDW b RI EUHHGLQJ XQLWV ZHUH PRQRJDPRXV GHILQHG DV D VLQJOH UHVLGHQW PDOH DQG IHPDOH SDLUf RQO\ b FRQWDLQHG PRUH WKDW RQH PDOH RU RQH IHPDOH *HW] t +RIPDQQ f 3RSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ VWURQJO\ LQIOXHQFHG PDWLQJ V\VWHP LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZLWK PRQRJDPRXV XQLWV VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH IUHTXHQW DW ORZ SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLWLHV WKDW DW KLJK SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLWLHV DOWKRXJK PRQRJDPRXV XQLWV ZHUH WKH PRVW IUHTXHQW DW DOO GHQVLWLHV 9LVLWV E\ QRQIDPLO\ PHPEHUV ZHUH LQIUHTXHQW /DERUDWRU\ VWXGLHV FRUURERUDWH WKH ILHOG GDWD )DPLO\ SDLUV LQ D VHPLQDWXUDO HQYLURQPHQW GLVSOD\HG FRKDELWDWLRQ RI D FRPPRQ QHVW DQG H[KLELWHG ELSDUHQWDO FDUH RI WKH \RXQJ *UXGHU$GDPV t *HW] f %LSDUHQWDO FDUH E\ SUDLULH YROHV KDV DOVR EHHQ GRFXPHQWHG E\ RWKHU UHVHDUFKHUV +DUWXQJ t 'HZVEXU\ 0F*XLUH t 1RYDN 2OLYHUDV t 1RYDN f 7KRPDV DQG %LUQH\ f HVWDEOLVKHG YROH VRFLHWLHV RI YDU\LQJ VH[ UDWLRV LQ ODERUDWRU\ SHQV $OO EXW RQH RI WKHVH VRFLHWLHV PDWHG

PAGE 64

PRQRJDPRXVO\ DQG GLVSOD\HG H[WHQVLYH ELSDUHQWDO FDUH WR RIIVSULQJ ,Q UHODWHG ZRUN *DYLVK &DUWHU DQG *HW] f VKRZHG WKDW UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV DV PHDVXUHG E\ QXPEHU RI SXSV ERUQ ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU LQ PRQRJDPRXV SDLUV WKDQ LQ H[SHULPHQWDOO\FUHDWHG EUHHGLQJ XQLWV FRQVLVWLQJ RI WKUHH DQLPDOV 3UHIHUHQWLDO DVVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ SDLU PHPEHUV KDYH EHHQ DVVHVVHG LQ D VHULHV RI H[SHULPHQWDO VWXGLHV ,Q VWDJHG G\DGLF HQFRXQWHUV DJJUHVVLYH EHKDYLRUV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ JUHDWHU EHWZHHQ D EUHHGHU DQLPDO DQG DQ XQIDPLOLDU RSSRVLWHVH[HG DQLPDO WKDQ EHWZHHQ PHPEHUV RI HVWDEOLVKHG SDLUV *HW] HW DO f 6KDSLUR f H[DPLQHG UDWHV RI FRQWDFW LQ G\DGLF HQFRXQWHUV DQG FRQFOXGHG WKDW SUDLULH YROHV H[KLELW FRQWDFW SURQHQHVV ,Q PXOWLSOH IHPDOH VLWXDWLRQV PDOH SUDLULH YROHV SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ PDWHG ZLWK D VLQJOH IHPDOH )XHQWHV t 'HZVEXU\ f 0DWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV IRU IDPLOLDU PDWHV 1HZPDQ t +DOSLQ 6KDSLUR $XVWLQ :DUG t 'HZVEXU\ f DQG XQPDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV )HUJXVRQ HW DO f KDYH DOVR EHHQ UHSRUWHG IRU WKLV VSHFLHV DQG DUH LQGLFDWLYH RI D PRQRJDPRXV PDWLQJ V\VWHP 7RJHWKHU WKHVH GDWD SURYLGH VWURQJ HYLGHQFH WKDW SUDLULH YROHV PDWH PRQRJDPRXVO\ XQGHU ORZ WR PRGHUDWH SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLWLHV /DERUDWRU\ HYLGHQFH KDV EHHQ ZHOO HVWDEOLVKHG IRU WKH WKUHH GLPHQVLRQV RI PRQRJDP\ SURSRVHG E\ 'HZVEXU\ Ef H[FOXVLYLW\ RI PDWLQJ MRLQW SDUHQWDO FDUH DQG DVVRFLDWLRQ )LHOG HYLGHQFH KDV EHHQ

PAGE 65

HVWDEOLVKHG IRU WKH ODWWHU WZR RI WKH WKUHH GLPHQVLRQV 'HZVEXU\ f VXJJHVWHG QLQH FRUUHODWHV RI PRQRJDP\ 3UDLULH YROHV VFRUHG KLJKO\ RQ WKLV 0RQRJDP\ 6FDOH (YLGHQFH IRU PRQRJDP\ IRU SUDLULH YROHV PHHWV WKH GHILQLWLRQ HVWDEOLVKHG E\ RWKHU UHVHDUFKHUV LH .OHLPDQ :LWWHQEHUJHU t 7LOVRQ f 0DWLQJ 6\VWHP RI 0RQWDQH 9ROHV 7KH EHKDYLRU RI PRQWDQH YROHV LQ FRQWUDVW LV PRUH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK D SRO\JDPRXV PDWLQJ V\VWHP 0RQWDQH YROHV DUH QDWLYH WR PRXQWDLQ YDOOH\ UHJLRQV RI WKH QRUWKZHVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV -DQQHWW f 7KHVH UHJLRQV FRQWDLQ VHGJHV DQG JUDVVHV EXW WKH IHHGLQJ KDELWV RI WKLV VSHFLHV KDYH QRW EHHQ IXOO\ HVWDEOLVKHG 2VWIHOG f ,W LV NQRZQ WKDW D FULWLFDO QXWULWLRQDO UHTXLUHPHQW IRU UHSURGXFWLYH DFWLYDWLRQ LV 0%2$ D FRPSRXQG IRXQG LQ JUHHQ YHJHWDWLRQ 6DQGHUV *DUGQHU %HUJHU t 1HJXV %HUJHU 1HJXV 6DQGHUV t *DUGQHU f )LHOG ZRUN KDV HVWDEOLVKHG WKDW PDOH DQG IHPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV DUH WHUULWRULDO -DQQHWW f EXW WKH VL]H DQG VKDSH RI WHUULWRULHV GLIIHU EHWZHHQ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV 0DOH WHUULWRULHV DUH ODUJHU DQG RYHUODS WKH UDQJHV RI VHYHUDO IHPDOHV -DQQHWW f $OWKRXJK D PDOH DQG IHPDOH PD\ EH LQ FORVH DVVRFLDWLRQ GXULQJ IHPDOH HVWUXV WKHUH LV QR LQGLFDWLRQ RI SDLUV QHVWLQJ WRJHWKHU -DQQHWW f ,Q DGGLWLRQ LQ LQVWDQFHV RI IHPDOH

PAGE 66

GLVSHUVDO PDOHV GR QRW IROORZ EXW UDWKHU UHPDLQ EHKLQG 7KHUH LV OLWWOH HIIHFW RI GHQVLW\ XSRQ WKH PDWLQJ V\VWHP 3RO\JDP\ RFFXUV DW DOO SRSXODWLRQ OHYHOV H[FHSW YHU\ ORZ GHQVLWLHV ZKHUH IDFXOWDWLYH PRQRJDP\ JHQHUDOO\ RFFXUV -DQQHWW f /DERUDWRU\ HYLGHQFH FRQILUPV WKH SRO\JDPRXV WHQGHQFLHV RI PRQWDQH YROHV $V QRWHG DERYH PRQWDQH YROHV VKRZ OLWWOH SUHIHUHQFH IRU IDPLOLDU 6KDSLUR HW DO f RU XQPDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV )HUJXVRQ HW DO f 0DOHIHPDOH G\DGLF HQFRXQWHUV LQ D VHPLQDWXUDO HQFORVXUH UHYHDOHG WKDW PRQWDQH YROHV VKRZ ORZ OHYHOV RI FRQWDFW SURQHQHVV DQG KLJK UDWHV RI DJJUHVVLRQ 6KDSLUR f 0DOHV LQ PXOWLSOH IHPDOH WHVW VLWXDWLRQV FRSXODWHG ZLWK PRUH IHPDOHV DQG GLVWULEXWHG HMDFXODWLRQV PRUH HTXDOO\ WKDQ GLG SUDLULH YROHV )XHQWHV t 'HZVEXU\ f 0RQWDQH YROHV VFRUHG WRZDUG WKH SRO\JDP\ HQG RI WKH 0RQRJDP\ 6FDOH RI 'HZVEXU\ f 6XPPDU\ RI 0DWLQJ 6\VWHPV RI 3UDLULH DQG 0RQWDQH 9ROHV 'LIIHUHQW IRUPV RI VRFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ DQG PDWLQJ V\VWHP UHVXOW IURP HQYLURQPHQWDO UHJXODWLRQ DQG VWDEOH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ EHKDYLRU 7KHVH IDFWRUV KDYH OHG WR SUDLULH YROHV H[KLELWLQJ D WHUULWRULDO PRQRJDPRXV V\VWHP DW ORZ WR PRGHUDWH SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLWLHV DQG PRQWDQH YROHV H[KLELWLQJ D WHUULWRULDO SRO\JDPRXV V\VWHP DW PRVW SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLWLHV

PAGE 67

0DWLQJ 6\VWHPV DQG 0DWH &KRLFH 7KH PDWLQJ V\VWHP FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI D JLYHQ SRSXODWLRQ KDV LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU WKH PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV H[KLELWHG E\ LQGLYLGXDOV LQ WKDW SRSXODWLRQ ,W KDV EHHQ DUJXHG WKDW PDWH FKRLFH VKRXOG EH PRUH SURQRXQFHG LQ PRQRJDPRXV VSHFLHV WKDQ SRO\JDPRXV RQHV .OHLPDQ 2n'RQDOG f 3UHIHUHQFHV UHODWHG WR D SRWHQWLDO PDWHn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f KDYH DUJXHG WKDW WKH DELOLW\ WR DVFHUWDLQ WKH WUXH PDWHG VWDWXV RI SRWHQWLDO PDWHV S f UHSUHVHQWV RQH RI WKUHH FULWLFDO SUHFRQGLWLRQV IRU WKH HYROXWLRQ RI PRQRJDPRXV PDWLQJ V\VWHPV $OWKRXJK WKHLU DUJXPHQW ZDV IRU IHPDOH FKRLFH WKH DELOLW\ WR GHWHFW PDWHG VWDWXV VKRXOG EH FULWLFDO IRU ERWK VH[HV )RU PDOHV GLVSOD\LQJ KLJK PDOH SDUHQWDO HIIRUW 03(f SDLULQJ ZLWK D UHFHQWO\ PDWHG IHPDOH OHDGV

PAGE 68

WR WKH GDQJHUV RI VSHUP FRPSHWLWLRQ DQG FXFNROGU\ VHH 3DUNHU f )RU IHPDOHV RI D VSHFLHV ZLWK KLJK 03( FRSXODWLQJ ZLWK D UHFHQWO\ PDWHG PDOH LV ULVN\ IRU VHYHUDO UHDVRQV LQFOXGLQJ f IDLOXUH WR LQLWLDWH SUHJQDQF\ f IDLOXUH WR PDLQWDLQ SUHJQDQF\ DQG f IDLOXUH WR UDLVH D OLWWHU )DLOXUH WR LQLWLDWH SUHJQDQF\ 7KH EDVLF RUJDQL]DWLRQDO XQLW RI FRSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU LQ PDQ\ PDPPDOLDQ VSHFLHV LV WKH HMDFXODWRU\ VHULHV ZKLFK EHJLQV ZLWK DQ LQWURPLVVLRQ DQG WHUPLQDWHV ZLWK DQ HMDFXODWLRQ 'XULQJ HMDFXODWRU\ VHULHV PDOHV RI PDQ\ VSHFLHV SURYLGH QRW RQO\ VSHUP EXW DOVR WKH VWLPXODWLRQ QHFHVVDU\ WR LQLWLDWH D VHULHV RI QHXURHQGRFULQH UHIOH[HV FULWLFDO IRU VSHUP WUDQVIHU RYXODWLRQ DQG WKH LQLWLDWLRQ RI SUHJQDQF\ 'HZVEXU\ 'LDPRQG f 3URYLGLQJ DGHTXDWH VWLPXODWLRQ WR LQLWLDWH SUHJQDQF\ PD\ UHTXLUH FRSXODWLRQ EH\RQG WKH FRPSOHWLRQ RI RQH HMDFXODWRU\ VHULHV VWLPXODWLRQ WKDW D UHFHQWO\ PDWHG PDOH PD\ QRW EH DEOH WR SURYLGH &RSXODWRU\ VWLPXODWLRQ KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR IDFLOLWDWH VSHUP WUDQVIHU LQ JROGHQ KDPVWHUV 'LDPRQG /DQLHU (VWHS t 'HZVEXU\ EXW VHH +XFN t /LVN Ef DQG ODERUDWRU\ UDWV 0DWWKHZV t $GOHU f ,Q PRQWDQH YROHV PRUH WKDQ WZR FRPSOHWH HMDFXODWRU\ VHULHV ZHUH UHTXLUHG WR LQGXFH RYXODWLRQ LQ DOO IHPDOHV WHVWHG 'DYLV *UD\ =HU\OQLFN t

PAGE 69

'HZVEXU\ f 2YXODWLRQ UDWHV GURSSHG WR b LQ IHPDOHV WKDW UHFHLYHG RQO\ RQH HMDFXODWRU\ VHULHV 2QH HMDFXODWRU\ VHULHV ZDV VXIILFLHQW WR SURGXFH RYXODWLRQ DQG LPSODQWDWLRQ LQ IHPDOH SUDLULH YROHV *UD\ =HU\OQLFN 'DYLV t 'HZVEXU\ f ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR SRVVLEO\ IDLOLQJ WR SURYLGH VWLPXODWLRQ D UHFHQWO\ PDWHG PDOH LV SUREDEO\ D GHSOHWHG PDOH $ FKDUDFWHULVWLF SDWWHUQ RI VH[XDO DFWLYLW\ LQ PDQ\ PDPPDOLDQ VSHFLHV LV WKH FRPSOHWLRQ RI VHYHUDO HMDFXODWRU\ VHULHV IROORZHG E\ D JHQHUDO GHFUHDVH LQ FRSXODWRU\ DFWLYLW\ WR WKH SRLQW RI FHVVDWLRQ RI FRSXODWLRQ IRU ORQJ SHULRGV RI WLPH 7KLV FHVVDWLRQ SRLQW KDV EHHQ JHQHUDOO\ UHIHUUHG WR DV VH[XDO VDWLDWLRQ RU VH[XDO H[KDXVWLRQ HJ %HDFK f 7KXV ZKHUHDV VSHUP SURGXFWLRQ LV FKHDS WKH FDSDFLW\ WR SURGXFH HMDFXODWHV DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ WKH FDSDFLW\ WR LPSUHJQDWH IHPDOHV PD\ EH OLPLWHG 'HZVEXU\ D VHH 1DNDWVXUX t .UDPHU f 1RW RQO\ DUH WKHUH OLPLWDWLRQV LQ WKH QXPEHU RI HMDFXODWHV SURGXFHG WKHUH DUH DOVR VLJQLILFDQW GHFUHDVHV LQ VSHUP FRXQWV RI ODWHU HMDFXODWHV 'HFUHPHQWV LQ SRWHQF\ DQG IHUWLOL]LQJ FDSDFLW\ RI VXFFHVVLYH HMDFXODWHV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ LQ VHYHUDO URGHQW VSHFLHV 0DWLQJ ZLWK GHSOHWHG JROGHQ KDPVWHUV UHVXOWHG LQ UHGXFHG IHUWLOLW\ +XFN HW DO f DQG VPDOOHU OLWWHU VL]HV SUHVXPDEO\ EHFDXVH RI VPDOOHU HMDFXODWHV +XFN t /LVN Df 6XFFHVVLYH HMDFXODWHV LQ ODERUDWRU\ UDWV ZHUH

PAGE 70

FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ GHFUHDVLQJ VSHUP FRXQWV DQG UHGXFHG IHUWLOLW\ $XVWLQ t 'HZVEXU\ 7RQHU t $GOHU f /LPLWHG HMDFXODWH SURGXFWLRQ DQG GHFUHDVHV LQ VSHUP FRXQWV DFURVV VHULHV KDYH DOVR EHHQ QRWHG LQ SUDLULH DQG PRQWDQH YROHV &KDUDFWHULVWLF RI ERWK VSHFLHV LV WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI D ODUJH LQLWLDO HMDFXODWH ZLWK VXEVHTXHQW HMDFXODWHV EHLQJ D GLPLQLVKLQJ IUDFWLRQ RI WKH LQLWLDO HMDFXODWH 3LHUFH HW DO PDQXVFULSW VXEPLWWHG IRU SXEOLFDWLRQf ,Q HDUO\ ODERUDWRU\ WHVWV PRQWDQH YROHV DFKLHYHG D PHDQ RI 'HZVEXU\ f DQG SUDLULH YROHV D PHDQ RI *UD\ t 'HZVEXU\ f HMDFXODWLRQV EHIRUH UHDFKLQJ D VDWLHW\ FULWHULRQ RI PLQ ZLWKRXW DQ LQWURPLVVLRQ ,Q PRUH UHFHQW ZRUN ZLWK GLIIHUHQW FRORQLHV D VDWLHW\ FULWHULRQ RI PLQ ZLWKRXW DQ LQWURPLVVLRQ RU PLQ ZLWKRXW DQ HMDFXODWLRQ KDV EHHQ XVHG 7KLV FULWHULRQ ZDV DGRSWHG WR FRUUHFW IRU WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI LQFRPSOHWH VHULHV LQWURPLVVLRQV DW LUUHJXODU LQWHUYDOV IRU KRXUV DIWHU WKH ODVW HMDFXODWLRQ LQ VSHFLHV VXFK DV PRQWDQH YROHV 'HZVEXU\ f DQG FDFWXV PLFH 'HZVEXU\ f 8VLQJ WKLV PRUH UHFHQW FULWHULRQ D PRQWDQH YROH PHDQ RI HMDFXODWLRQV 3LHUFH HW DO VXEPLWWHGf DQG SUDLULH YROHV PHDQV RI 3LHUFH HW DO VXEPLWWHGf DQG 3LHUFH HW DO f HMDFXODWLRQV KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG 7KXV WKHVH VSHFLHV DUH OLPLWHG LQ HMDFXODWH SURGXFWLRQ ZLWK PRQWDQH YROHV JHQHUDOO\ VKRZLQJ PRUH FRSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU WKDQ SUDLULH YROHV

PAGE 71

/LPLWHG HMDFXODWH SURGXFWLRQ WKH FRPSDUDWLYHO\ VPDOO HMDFXODWHV IROORZLQJ WKH LQLWLDO HMDFXODWH DQG WKH VWLPXODWLRQ UHTXLUHPHQWV WR LQLWLDWH SUHJQDQF\ VXJJHVW WKDW IHPDOHV RI WKHVH VSHFLHV PD\ QRW UHFHLYH WKH QHFHVVDU\ FRSXODWLRQ WR LQLWLDWH SUHJQDQF\ E\ PDWLQJ ZLWK GHSOHWHG PDOHV 7KLV PD\ EH PRUH WKH FDVH IRU SUDLULH YROHV KRZHYHU 6DWLDWHG PDOH PRQWDQH YROHV GLVSOD\ D &RROLGJH HIIHFW WKH UHOLDEOH UHVXPSWLRQ RI FRSXODWRU\ DFWLYLW\ IROORZLQJ LQWURGXFWLRQ RI D QRYHO IHPDOH 'HZVEXU\ f 7KLV UHVXPSWLRQ PD\ EH VXIILFLHQW WR LQLWLDWH SUHJQDQF\ DV KDV EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ JROGHQ KDPVWHUV +XFN t /LVN D Ef 3UDLULH YROHV IDLO WR VKRZ D &RROLGJH HIIHFW *UD\ t 'HZVEXU\ f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f ZKR GLVFRYHUHG WKDW GD\V RI FRKDELWDWLRQ ZHUH

PAGE 72

QHFHVVDU\ IRU SUHJQDQF\ PDLQWHQDQFH +LJKHVW UDWHV RI SUHJQDQF\ RFFXU ZKHQ WKH PDOH LV SUHVHQW WKURXJKRXW SUHJQDQF\ +RIPDQQ *HW] t *DYLVK f $ VLPLODU IDFLOLWDWLRQ E\ PDOH SUHVHQFH KDV EHHQ UHSRUWHG IRU PRQWDQH YROHV %HUJHU t 1HJXV f 6HFRQG D GHVHUWHG IHPDOH LV DW ULVN RI KDYLQJ WKH SUHJQDQF\ GLVUXSWHG 7KH %UXFH HIIHFW %UXFH f LV D SUHJQDQF\ EORFN WKDW RFFXUV ZKHQ D IHPDOH LV H[SRVHG WR D VWUDQJH PDOH RU WKH RGRU RI D VWUDQJH PDOH 7KLV HIIHFW LV FRPPRQ LQ PDQ\ URGHQW VSHFLHV VHH UHYLHZV E\ /DERY 6FKZDJPH\HU f HVSHFLDOO\ PLFURWLQH URGHQWV 6WHKQ t -DQQHWW f 0RQWDQH 6WHKQ t -DQQHWW f DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ SUDLULH YROHV 6WHKQ t -DQQHWW 6WHKQ t 5LFKPRQG f DUH VXVFHSWLEOH WR WKH %UXFH HIIHFW ,Q SUDLULH YROHV SRVWLPSODQWDWLRQDO SUHJQDQF\ EORFNV FDQ RFFXU DV ODWH DV RU GD\V SDVW FRSXODWLRQ 6WHKQ t 5LFKPRQG f DQG LQ VHPLQDWXUDO HQFORVXUHV ZKHUH WKH IHPDOH FDQ SRWHQWLDOO\ DYRLG WKH PDOH +HVNH t 1HOVRQ f (YLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH SUHVHQFH RI WKH RULJLQDO PDOH IDFLOLWDWHV WKH PDLQWHQDQFH RI SUHJQDQF\ 5LFKPRQG t 6WHKQ f DQG PD\ EORFN WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI WKH %UXFH HIIHFW 7KXV WKH PDOHnV SUHVHQFH GXULQJ JHVWDWLRQ FDQ EH FULWLFDO IRU SUHJQDQF\ PDLQWHQDQFH

PAGE 73

)DLOXUH WR UDLVH D OLWWHU (YHQ LI D IHPDOH LV DEOH WR GHOLYHU D OLWWHU VXFFHVVIXOO\ WKH DEVHQFH RI D SDUWQHU WKDW ZRXOG RWKHUZLVH SURYLGH SDUHQWDO FDUH PD\ UHVXOW LQ LQFUHDVHG SXS PRUWDOLW\ RU HYHQ WKH FDWDVWURSKLF ORVV RI DQ HQWLUH OLWWHU .OHLPDQ DQG 0DOFROP f KDYH LGHQWLILHG VHYHUDO FDWHJRULHV RI GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW SDWHUQDO EHKDYLRU LQFOXGLQJ UHVRXUFH DFTXLVLWLRQ QHVW FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG PDLQWHQDQFH FDUH RI PRWKHU DQG \RXQJ GHIHQVH SXS UHWULHYDO HWF :LWKRXW PDOH SDUHQWDO FDUH IHPDOHV RI VRPH VSHFLHV VXFK DV SUDLULH YROHV PD\ EH XQDEOH WR UDLVH D OLWWHU VXFFHVVIXOO\ 3UDLULH YROH PDOHV SURYLGH H[WHQVLYH SDUHQWDO FDUH LQ ODERUDWRU\ 'HZVEXU\ +DUWXQJ t 'HZVEXU\ f DQG ILHOG *HW] f DQG H[LVWLQJ HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW WKLV SDWHUQDO FDUH UHVXOWV LQ KLJKHU SXS VXUYLYRUVKLS 7KRPDV t %LUQH\ f 0DOH SUHVHQFH GXULQJ GHYHORSPHQW PD\ DOVR KHOS SUHYHQW LQIDQWLFLGH 0DQ\ ODERUDWRU\ VWXGLHV KDYH UHSRUWHG LQIDQWLFLGDO EHKDYLRU LQ VHYHUDO URGHQW VSHFLHV DOWKRXJK ILHOG GDWD RI WKLV SKHQRPHQRQ DUH VFDUFH VHH UHYLHZV E\ %URRNV /DERY +XFN (OZRRG t %URRNV f 0DOH DEVHQFH GXULQJ OLWWHU GHYHORSPHQW PD\ OHDYH D OLWWHU PRUH VXVFHSWLEOH WR LQIDQWLFLGH

PAGE 74

6XPPDU\ ,Q PRQRJDPRXV VSHFLHV PDOHV PD\ SURYLGH UHVRXUFHV DQG SDUHQWDO FDUH FULWLFDO IRU WKH VXUYLYDO DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH RIIVSULQJ 7KXV IHPDOHV RI WKHVH VSHFLHV VKRXOG GLVFULPLQDWH DQG SUHIHU PDOHV WKDW DUH QRW DOUHDG\ D PHPEHU RI D ORQJWHUP VWDEOH DVVRFLDWLRQ 2QH SUR[LPDWH FXH WKDW PD\ LQGLFDWH WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI D PDOH LV WKH UHFHQF\ RI KLV SULRU PDWLQJ 7KH DELOLW\ RI IHPDOHV WR GLVFULPLQDWH EHWZHHQ XQPDWHG DQG UHFHQWO\ PDWHG PDOHV ZDV DVVHVVHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW UHVHDUFK

PAGE 75

*2$/6 2) 7+( 35(6(17 5(6($5&+ $V QRWHG DERYH PDOH SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG RYHU PDWHG IHPDOHV KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ SUDLULH YROHV ZKHUHDV PDOH PRQWDQH YROHV VKRZ OLWWOH SUHIHUHQFH )HUJXVRQ HW DO f 7KHVH UHVXOWV VXJJHVW WKDW DQLPDOV RI PRQRJDPRXV VSHFLHV DUH PRUH GLVFULPLQDWLQJ WKDQ DUH SRO\JDPRXV VSHFLHV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH SURSRVHG FULWHULRQ RI UHFHQF\ RI PDWLQJ 7KH VWXGLHV UHSRUWHG KHUH ZHUH GHVLJQHG f WR FRQVLGHU D VLPLODU HIIHFW LQ IHPDOH SUDLULH DQG PRQWDQH YROHV f WR DVVHVV ZKHWKHU WKH DPRXQW RI UHFHQW PDWLQJ E\ WKH SRWHQWLDO SDUWQHU LQIOXHQFHV WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI D SUHIHUHQFH DQG f WR GHWHUPLQH LI WKHUH LV D IXQFWLRQDO FRQVHTXHQFH LQ WHUPV RI SUHJQDQF\ LQLWLDWLRQ WKDW XQGHUOLHV D SUHIHUHQFH IRU DQ XQPDWHG PDOH 7KH JHQHUDO VWUXFWXUH RI WKH H[SHULPHQWV ZDV DV IROORZV ([SHULPHQWV UHSUHVHQWHG D [ [ GHVLJQ ZLWK WZR VSHFLHV SUDLULH YROHV DQG PRQWDQH YROHVf WZR OHYHOV RI UHFHQW PDWLQJ RQH YHUVXV WKUHH HMDFXODWLRQVf DQG WZR W\SHV RI DSSDUDWXV WHWKHU WHVWV DQG DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WHVWVf XVHG WR VWXG\ IHPDOH SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG YHUVXV PDWHG PDOHV VHH )LJXUH f ,Q

PAGE 76

7HWKHU 0(7+2' $QHVWKHVLD 7HWKHU 0(7+2' $QHVWKHVLD 35$,5,( 92/(6 12 2) (-$&8/$7,216 %< 0$7(' 0$/( (;3 (;3 (;3 (;3 0217$1( 92/(6 12 2) (-$&8/$7,216 %< 0$7(' 0$/( (;3 (;3 (;3 (;3 )LJXUH ([SHULPHQWDO GHVLJQ RI ([SHULPHQWV

PAGE 77

([SHULPHQWV DQG SUHJQDQF\ UDWHV LQ YLUJLQ IHPDOHV ZKLFK PDWHG ZLWK D UHFHQWO\ PDWHG GHSOHWHG PDOH RU D VH[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG QRQGHSOHWHG PDOH ZHUH H[DPLQHG 7KH OHYHOV RI UHFHQW PDWLQJ VHOHFWHG IRU WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQW ZHUH EDVHG RQ WKH QXPEHU RI HMDFXODWLRQV W\SLFDOO\ DWWDLQHG EHIRUH VDWLHW\ DQG WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU SUHJQDQF\ LQ WKH WZR VSHFLHV VHH DERYHf $W RQH SULRU HMDFXODWLRQ PDOHV FDQ QRW EH FRQVLGHUHG DV GHSOHWHG $W WKUHH HMDFXODWLRQV KRZHYHU PRVW PDOH SUDLULH YROHV KDYH UHDFKHG VH[XDO VDWLHW\ DQG IXWXUH FRSXODWLRQ ZRXOG OLNHO\ EH DW LQIUHTXHQW DQG LUUHJXODU LQWHUYDOV 0RQWDQH YROHV DIWHU WKUHH HMDFXODWLRQV ZLOO VWLOO GLVSOD\ VH[XDO EHKDYLRU EXW PD\ QRW KDYH WKH PRUH WKDQ WZR VHULHV UHTXLUHG WR LQLWLDWH SUHJQDQF\ 'DYLV HW DO VHH DERYHf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

PAGE 78

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

PAGE 79

D VXEMHFW 6RPH PDOHV ZHUH XVHG DV VWLPXOXV DQLPDOV PRUH WKDQ RQFH LQ DQ H[SHULPHQW :KHQ EHLQJ XVHG D VHFRQG WLPH WKH VWLPXOXV PDOH ZDV SDLUHG ZLWK D GLIIHUHQW VWLPXOXV PDOH DQG LQ WKH RSSRVLWH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ LH IUHVK YHUVXV GHSOHWHGf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f 7KH ER[ PHDVXUHG [ [ FP DQG ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR WKUHH HTXDOVL]HG FRPSDUWPHQWV HQG FRPSDUWPHQWV IRU WKH WZR PDOHV DQG D FHQWUDO QHXWUDO DUHD )RU ([SHULPHQWV DQG PDOHV ZHUH WHWKHUHG DW RSSRVLWH HQGV RI WKH ER[ DQG D IHPDOH ZHUH IUHH WR PRYH EHWZHHQ WKHP ,Q ([SHULPHQWV DQG XQWHWKHUHG DQHVWKHWL]HG PDOHV ZHUH SODFHG YHQWUXP XS DW RSSRVLWH HQGV RI WKH ER[ DQG D IHPDOH ZDV IUHH WR PRYH EHWZHHQ WKHP 0DOHV ZHUH SODFHG YHQWUXP XS WR DOORZ IHPDOHV PD[LPDO

PAGE 80

)LJXUH 7KH WHWKHU DSSDUDWXV XVHG LQ ([SHULPHQWV

PAGE 81

FP FP

PAGE 82

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f RQ WKH WHVW GD\ DQG ZKLFK VKRZHG EHKDYLRUDO UHFHSWLYLW\ WR D VWXG PDOH ZHUH XVHG )RU PRQWDQH YROHV UHFHSWLYLW\ ZDV DVVHVVHG E\ WKH IHPDOHnV EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV WR D VWXG PDOH RQ WKH WHVW GD\ DV YDJLQDO VPHDUV DUH QRW D JRRG SUHGLFWRU RI EHKDYLRUDO HVWUXV LQ WKLV VSHFLHV 6DZUH\ f )RU ([SHULPHQWV RQH PDOH ZDV PDWHG IRU WKH DSSURSULDWH QXPEHU RI FRPSOHWH HMDFXODWRU\ VHULHV ZLWK D QRQH[SHULPHQWDO IHPDOH 7KHVH IHPDOHV ZHUH EURXJKW LQWR EHKDYLRUDO UHFHSWLYLW\ E\ LQMHFWLRQ RI PJ RI HVWUDGLRO EHQ]RDWH WKUHH GD\V EHIRUH WHVWLQJ )ROORZLQJ WKH ODVW HMDFXODWLRQ ERWK PDOHV ZHUH HLWKHU WHWKHUHG ([SHULPHQWV DQG f RU DQHVWKHWL]HG ([SHULPHQWV

PAGE 83

DQG f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

PAGE 84

7KH FRSXODWRU\ SDWWHUQ RI YROHV FRQVLVWV RI WKUHH FODVVHV RI EHKDYLRUV PRXQWV ZLWK QR YDJLQDO LQVHUWLRQf LQWURPLVVLRQV PRXQWV ZLWK LQVHUWLRQ DQG WKUXVWLQJ EXW QR HMDFXODWLRQf DQG HMDFXODWLRQV PRXQWV ZLWK LQWURPLVVLRQ WKUXVWLQJ DQG VHPLQDO HPLVVLRQf &RSXODWRU\ PHDVXUHV UHFRUGHG LQFOXGHG WKH QXPEHU RI PRXQWV WKH QXPEHU RI LQWURPLVVLRQV WKH QXPEHU RI WKUXVWV DQG WKH QXPEHU RI HMDFXODWLRQV +LW UDWH WKH UDWLR RI LQWURPLVVLRQV WR WKH QXPEHU RI PRXQWV SOXV LQWURPLVVLRQV ZDV FDOFXODWHG IRU HDFK PDOH 'HZVEXU\ *UD\ t 'HZVEXU\ f 7HVWV LQYROYLQJ DQHVWKHWL]HG PDOHV SHUPLWWHG WKH FROOHFWLRQ RI YLVLWDWLRQ GDWD RQO\ 0HDVXUHV UHODWHG WR YLVLWDWLRQ LQFOXGHG WKH QXPEHU DQG GXUDWLRQ RI f YLVLWV WR HDFK PDOH f ERXWV RI VQLIILQJOLFNLQJ HDFK PDOH DQG f ERXWV RI O\LQJ EHVLGHDFURVV HDFK PDOH )HUJXVRQ HW DO f 6QLIILQJOLFNLQJ ZDV VFRUHG ZKHQHYHU WKH IHPDOHnV VQRXW ZDV ZLWKLQ FP RI DQ\ SDUW RI DQ DQHVWKHWL]HG PDOH 0HDVXUHV IRU WHVWV LQYROYLQJ SUHJQDQF\ LQ IHPDOHV ([SHULPHQWV DQG f ZHUH WKH QXPEHU RI SUHJQDQFLHV LQ HDFK FRQGLWLRQ DQG WKH QXPEHU RI SXSV ERUQ ([SHULPHQW 7KH ILUVW H[SHULPHQW ZDV DQ DWWHPSW WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU D EHKDYLRUDOO\ UHFHSWLYH SUDLULH YROH IHPDOH ZRXOG GLVFULPLQDWH EHWZHHQ DQG FRSXODWH SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ ZLWK DQ

PAGE 85

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

PAGE 86

7DEOH 3UHIHUHQFHV RI )HPDOH 3UDLULH 9ROHV IRU 8QPDWHG 9HUVXV 0DWHG IRU 7KUHH (MDFXODWLRQVf 7HWKHUHG 0DOH 9ROHV LQ ([SHULPHQW 0HDVXUH 0f 8QPDWHG 0DOH 0DWHG 0DOH W GI OOf ( 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH VHFf 1R 9LVLWV Q V 1R (MDFXODWLRQV 1R ,QWURPLVVLRQV 1R 7KUXVWV 1R 0RXQWV Q V +LW 5DWH Q V 1R 7ULDOV ZLWK !b RI 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH

PAGE 87

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

PAGE 88

DSSDUDWXV 7KH SURFHGXUHV IRU ([SHULPHQW ZHUH RWKHUZLVH VLPLODU WR WKRVH RI ([SHULPHQW $ WRWDO RI WULDOV ZDV UXQ 5HVXOWV 5HVXOWV RI SDLUHG WWHVWV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH DQG VKRZ WKDW IHPDOHV GLG QRW HVWDEOLVK VLJQLILFDQW SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG YHUVXV PDWHG PDOHV 1RQH RI WKH YLVLWDWLRQ RU FRSXODWRU\ PHDVXUHV ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW DOWKRXJK QXPEHU RI YLVLWV DSSURDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH W S f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

PAGE 89

7DEOH 3UHIHUHQFHV RI )HPDOH 3UDLULH 9ROHV IRU 8QPDWHG 9HUVXV 0DWHG IRU 2QH (MDFXODWLRQf 7HWKHUHG 0DOH 9ROHV LQ ([SHULPHQW 0HDVXUH 0f 8QPDWHG 0DOH 0DWHG 0DOH W GI f ( 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH VHFf Q V 1R 9LVLWV 1R (M DFXODWLRQV Q V 1R ,QWURPLVVLRQV Q V 1R 7KUXVWV QV 1R 0RXQWV QV +LW 5DWH QV 1R 7ULDOV ZLWK !b RI 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH

PAGE 90

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

PAGE 91

7DEOH 3UHIHUHQFHV RI )HPDOH 3UDLULH 9ROHV IRU 8QPDWHG 9HUVXV 0DWHG )RU 7KUHH (MDFXODWLRQVf $QHVWKHWL]HG 0DOH 9ROHV LQ ([SHULPHQW 0HDVXUH 0f 8QPDWHG 0DOH 0DWHG 0DOH W GI OOf e 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH VHFf 1R 9LVLWV Q V 7LPH 6QLIILQJ VHFf 7LPH /\LQJ %HVLGH $FURVV VHFf 1R 7ULDOV ZLWK !b RI 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH

PAGE 92

DSSURDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH S f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f

PAGE 93

)LJXUH )HPDOH YLVLWDWLRQ WR HDFK PDOH RYHU WKUHH FRQVHFXWLYH PLQ SHULRGV LQ ([SHULPHQW

PAGE 94

2 28QPDWHG 0DOH $ $0DWHG 0DOH 2 7,0( 3(5,2' + FR 8O

PAGE 95

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f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

PAGE 96

7DEOH 3UHIHUHQFHV RI )HPDOH 3UDLULH 9ROHV IRU 8QPDWHG 9HUVXV 0DWHG )RU 2QH (MDFXODWLRQf $QHVWKHWL]HG 0DOH 9ROHV LQ ([SHULPHQW 0HDVXUH 0f 8QPDWHG 0DOH 0DWHG 0DOH W GI OOf ( 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH VHFf Q V 1R 9LVLWV QV 7LPH 6QLIILQJ VHFf 7LPH /\LQJ %HVLGH QV $FURVV VHFf 1R 7ULDOV ZLWK !b RI 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH

PAGE 97

)LJXUH )HPDOH YLVLWDWLRQ WR HDFK PDOH RYHU WKUHH FRQVHFXWLYH PLQ SHULRGV LQ ([SHULPHQW

PAGE 98

2 28QPDWHG 0DOH $ $0DWHG 0DOH 7,0( 3(5,2' + FR 92

PAGE 99

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

PAGE 100

7DEOH 3UHIHUHQFHV RI )HPDOH 0RQWDQH 9ROHV IRU 8QPDWHG 9HUVXV 0DWHG IRU 7KUHH (MDFXODWLRQVf 7HWKHUHG 0DOH 9ROHV LQ ([SHULPHQW 0HDVXUH 0f 8QPDWHG 0DOH 0DWHG 0DOH W GI OOf ( 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH VHFf Q V 1R 9LVLWV Q V 1R (MDFXODWLRQV 1R ,QWURPLVVLRQV Q V 1R 7KUXVWV Q V 1R 0RXQWV +LW 5DWH Q V 1R 7ULDOV ZLWK !b RI 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH

PAGE 101

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

PAGE 102

5HVXOWV $V SUHGLFWHG SDLUHG WWHVWV UHYHDOHG QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ PDOHV IRU DQ\ RI WKH YLVLWDWLRQ RU FRSXODWRU\ PHDVXUHV VHH 7DEOH f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

PAGE 103

7DEOH 3UHIHUHQFHV RI )HPDOH 0RQWDQH 9ROHV IRU 8QPDWHG 9HUVXV 0DWHG IRU 2QH (MDFXODWLRQA 7HWKHUHG 0DOH 9ROHV LQ ([SHULPHQW 0HDVXUH 8QPDWHG 0DWHG W ( 0f 0DOH 0DOH GI OOf 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH VHFf Q V 1R 9LVLWV Q V 1R (M DFXODWLRQV Q V 1R ,QWURPLVVLRQV Q V 1R 7KUXVWV Q V 1R 0RXQWV Q V +LW 5DWH Q V 1R 7ULDOV ZLWK !b RI 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH

PAGE 104

VXEMHFWV DQG VWLPXOXV PDOHV $ WRWDO RI WULDOV ZDV UXQ 5HVXOWV 5HVXOWV RI SDLUHG WWHVWV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH &RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH UHVXOWV RI ([SHULPHQW IHPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV VKRZHG QR DVVRFLDWLRQ SUHIHUHQFH IRU HLWKHU PDOH 7KH SDWWHUQ RI YLVLWLQJ IRU HDFK WKLUG RI WKH REVHUYDWLRQ VHVVLRQ VKRZHG QR WUHQG LQ SUHIHUHQFH IRU D SDUWLFXODU PDOH )LJXUH f ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ZDV XQGHUWDNHQ WR GHWHUPLQH LI PRQWDQH YROH IHPDOHV LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI EHKDYLRUDO FXHV ZRXOG GLVFULPLQDWH DQG DVVRFLDWH SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ ZLWK DQ XQPDWHG PDOH RYHU D PDOH ZKLFK KDG UHFHQWO\ GHOLYHUHG RQH HMDFXODWLRQ WR D QRQH[SHULPHQWDO IHPDOH 0HWKRG 7KH SURFHGXUHV IRU ([SHULPHQW ZHUH VLPLODU WR WKRVH RI ([SHULPHQW H[FHSW WKDW PRQWDQH YROHV ZHUH XVHG DV VXEMHFWV DQG VWLPXOXV PDOHV $ WRWDO RI WULDOV ZDV UXQ

PAGE 105

7DEOH 3UHIHUHQFHV RI )HPDOH 0RQWDQH 9ROHV IRU 8QPDWHG 9HUVXV 0DWHG )RU 7KUHH (MDFXODWLRQVf $QHVWKHWL]HG 0DOH 9ROHV LQ ([SHULPHQW 0HDVXUH 0f 8QPDWHG 0DOH 0DWHG 0DOH W GI OOf 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH VHFf Q V 1R 9LVLWV Q V 7LPH 6QLIILQJ VHFf Q V 7LPH /\LQJ %HVLGH Q V $FURVV VHFf 1R 7ULDOV ZLWK !b RI 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH

PAGE 106

)LJXUH )HPDOH YLVLWDWLRQ WR HDFK PDOH RYHU WKUHH FRQVHFXWLYH PLQ SHULRGV LQ ([SHULPHQW

PAGE 107

2 28QPDWHG 0DOH $ $0DWHG 0DOH 7,0( 3(5,2' YR &'

PAGE 108

5HVXOWV 5HVXOWV RI SDLUHG WWHVWV FDQ EH IRXQG LQ 7DEOH 1R SUHIHUHQFHV IRU HLWKHU PDOH ZHUH QRWHG )HPDOHV LQFUHDVHG WRWDO YLVLW WLPH ZLWK PDWHG PDOHV GXULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI WKH VHVVLRQ EXW QRW WR D VLJQLILFDQW GHJUHH )LJXUH f ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQWV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW IHPDOH SUDLULH YROHV EXW QRW IHPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV SUHIHUUHG WR DVVRFLDWH ZLWK XQPDWHG PDOHV RYHU UHFHQWO\ PDWHG PDOHV ([SHULPHQWV DQG ZHUH GHVLJQHG WR DVVHVV ZKHWKHU WKLV SUHIHUHQFH UHIOHFWV D IXQFWLRQDO FRQVHTXHQFH RI PDWLQJ ZLWK D UHFHQWO\ PDWHG DQG SRVVLEO\ GHSOHWHG PDOH 3UHYLRXV DWWHPSWV WR VWXG\ SUHJQDQF\ UDWHV LQ IHPDOHV PDWLQJ ZLWK SDUWLDOO\ GHSOHWHG PDOHV KDYH LQGLFDWHG UHGXFHG IHUWLOLW\ RI ODWHU HMDFXODWHV E\ VRPH VSHFLHV 7RQHU DQG $GOHU f DQG $XVWLQ DQG 'HZVEXU\ f QRWHG WKDW ODWHU HMDFXODWLRQV RI PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV KDG ORZHU VSHUP FRXQWV DQG UHGXFHG IHUWLOLW\ UHODWLYH WR LQLWLDO HMDFXODWLRQV $ VLPLODU HIIHFW KDV EHHQ QRWHG LQ JROGHQ KDPVWHUV +XFN t /LVN D E +XFN HW DO f ,Q FRQWUDVW QR GHFUHDVH LQ SRWHQF\ RI ODWH HMDFXODWHV KDV EHHQ UHSRUWHG IRU GHHU PLFH 'HZVEXU\ Ff DQG UDEELWV $GDPV t 6LQJK f

PAGE 109

7DEOH 3UHIHUHQFHV RI )HPDOH 0RQWDQH 9ROHV IRU 8QPDWHG 9HUVXV 0DWHG )RU 2QH (LDFXODWLRQf $QHVWKHWL]HG 0DOH 9ROHV LQ ([SHULPHQW 0HDVXUH 0f 8QPDWHG 0DOH 0DWHG 0DOH W GI OOf ( 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH VHFf QV 1R 9LVLWV Q V 7LPH 6QLIILQJ VHFf QV 7LPH /\LQJ %HVLGH QV $FURVV VHFf 1R 7ULDOV ZLWK !b RI 7RWDO 9LVLW 7LPH

PAGE 110

)LJXUH )HPDOH YLVLWDWLRQ WR HDFK PDOH RYHU WKUHH FRQVHFXWLYH PLQ SHULRGV LQ ([SHULPHQW

PAGE 111

2 28QPDWHG 0DOH $ $0DWHG 0DOH + I 7,0( 3(5,2'

PAGE 112

)HUWLOLW\ RI ODWH HMDFXODWHV RI SUDLULH DQG PRQWDQH YROHV ZDV H[DPLQHG LQ ([SHULPHQWV DQG ,Q WKHVH H[SHULPHQWV SUHJQDQF\ UDWHV DQG OLWWHU VL]H ZHUH FRPSDUHG IRU IHPDOHV WKDW KDG FRSXODWHG ZLWK D UHFHQWO\ PDWHG GHSOHWHG PDOH DQG IHPDOHV WKDW KDG FRSXODWHG ZLWK D VH[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG PDOH ZKLFK ZDV QRW GHSOHWHG ,Q ([SHULPHQW VH[XDOO\ LQH[SHULHQFHG SUDLULH YROH IHPDOHV PDWHG ZLWK HLWKHU D UHFHQWO\ PDWHG GHSOHWHG PDOH RU D VH[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG QRQGHSOHWHG PDOH 0HWKRG 6H[XDOO\ LQH[SHULHQFHG IHPDOH SUDLULH YROHV ZHUH KRXVHG DFURVV D ZLUH EDUULHU IURP D VH[XDOO\ H[SHULHQFHG PDOH LQ D GLYLGHG FDJH WKUHH GD\V SULRU WR WHVWLQJ 'DLO\ YDJLQDO VPHDUV ZHUH WDNHQ )HPDOHV ZKRVH VPHDUV LQGLFDWHG D ILUVWGD\ HVWUXV RQ WKH WKLUG GD\ ZHUH XVHG DV VXEMHFWV (DFK PDOH ZDV UXQ LQ WZR FRXQWHUEDODQFHG FRQGLWLRQV ,Q RQH FRQGLWLRQ WKH PDOH ZDV UHPRYHG IURP WKH GLYLGHG FDJH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PLQ EHIRUH WHVWLQJ DQG SODFHG LQ D [ [ FP SRO\FDUERQDWH FDJH ZLWK D QRQH[SHULPHQWDO KRUPRQHLQMHFWHG IHPDOH 2EVHUYDWLRQV ZHUH PDGH XQWLO WKH FRPSOHWLRQ RI WKH ILUVW HMDFXODWRU\ VHULHV WKHQ WKH SDLU ZDV DOORZHG WR FRSXODWH ZLWKRXW LQWHUUXSWLRQ IRU WZR DGGLWLRQDO KRXUV $W WKH HQG RI WKLV SHULRG WKH PDOH ZDV UHPRYHG WR KLV KRPH FDJH WKH ZLUH EDUULHU UHPRYHG DQG WKH SDLU DOORZHG WR FRSXODWH ZLWKRXW LQWHUUXSWLRQ IRU WZR

PAGE 113

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

PAGE 114

EHLQJ UXQ LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ ILUVW 'LIIHUHQW IHPDOHV ZHUH XVHG IRU HDFK WULDO 5HVXOWV 2I IHPDOHV PDWHG WR XQPDWHG PDOHV bf GHOLYHUHG D OLWWHU VXFFHVVIXOO\ 2I IHPDOHV PDWHG WR D GHSOHWHG PDOH bf GHOLYHUHG OLWWHUV 7KLV GLIIHUHQFH ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW DV DVVHVVHG E\ D ELQRPLDO WHVW 0HDQ OLWWHU VL]HV ZHUH LQ WKH XQPDWHG PDOH FRQGLWLRQ DQG IRU IHPDOHV LQ WKH GHSOHWHG PDOH FRQGLWLRQ $ :LOFR[RQ PDWFKHGSDLUV WHVW IDLOHG WR \LHOG VLJQLILFDQFH 7 QVf ([SHULPHQW (YHQ WKRXJK PRQWDQH YROH IHPDOHV IDLOHG WR GLVSOD\ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU XQPDWHG PDOHV WKHUH PD\ VWLOO EH D UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH OLNHOLKRRG RI SUHJQDQF\ LQLWLDWLRQ DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI PDWLQJ ZLWK D GHSOHWHG PDOH $FFRUGLQJO\ ([SHULPHQW ZDV DQ DWWHPSW WR DVFHUWDLQ ZKHWKHU WKHUH LV D IXQFWLRQDO FRQVHTXHQFH LQ PRQWDQH YROH IHPDOHV WR PDWLQJ ZLWK UHFHQWO\ PDWHG GHSOHWHG PDOHV

PAGE 115

0HWKRG 7KH SURFHGXUHV IRU ([SHULPHQW ZHUH VLPLODU WR WKRVH RI ([SHULPHQW H[FHSW WKDW PRQWDQH YROHV ZHUH XVHG DV VXEMHFWV DQG UHFHSWLYLW\ ZDV GHWHUPLQHG E\ EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV WR WKH PDOH UDWKHU WKDQ E\ YDJLQDO VPHDUV $ WRWDO RI WULDOV ZDV UXQ 5HVXOWV 2I IHPDOHV PDWHG WR XQPDWHG PDOHV bf GHOLYHUHG D OLWWHU VXFFHVVIXOO\ 2QO\ RI bf IHPDOHV PDWHG WR GHSOHWHG PDOHV ERUH SXSV $ ELQRPLDO WHVW IDLOHG WR \LHOG VLJQLILFDQFH 0HDQ OLWWHU VL]HV ZHUH IRU IHPDOHV LQ WKH XQPDWHG PDOH FRQGLWLRQ DQG IRU IHPDOHV LQ WKH GHSOHWHG PDOH FRQGLWLRQ 7KLV GLIIHUHQFH ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW :LOFR[RQ 7 QVf

PAGE 116

*(1(5$/ ',6&866,21 6XPPDU\ DQG 2YHUYLHZ RI 5HVXOWV 7KH VWXGLHV UHSRUWHG KHUH ZHUH GHVLJQHG f WR DVVHVV DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG YHUVXV PDWHG PDOHV LQ IHPDOH SUDLULH DQG PRQWDQH YROHV f WR DVVHVV ZKHWKHU WKH DPRXQW RI UHFHQW PDWLQJ E\ WKH SRWHQWLDO SDUWQHU LQIOXHQFHV WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI D SUHIHUHQFH DQG f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f ,Q DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WHVWV ZKHQ

PAGE 117

PDWHG PDOHV KDG GHOLYHUHG WKUHH SULRU HMDFXODWLRQV IHPDOHV SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ YLVLWHG DQG ODLG LQ FRQWDFW ZLWK XQPDWHG PDOHV ([S f )HPDOH SUHIHUHQFHV ZHUH JUHDWO\ UHGXFHG ZKHQ PDWHG PDOHV GHOLYHUHG RQH DV RSSRVHG WR WKUHH SULRU HMDFXODWLRQV 7RWDO YLVLW WLPH GLG QRW GLIIHU VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWZHHQ PDOHV LQ HLWKHU WHWKHU WHVWV ([S f RU DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WHVWV ([S f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f DQG YLVLWHG PDOHV DW VLPLODU UDWHV GXULQJ DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WHVWV ([SV DQG f

PAGE 118

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f DQG LQWURPLVVLRQV SFf ZDV QRWHG 1R VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ FRSXODWRU\ PHDVXUHV ZHUH REWDLQHG LQ WHWKHU WHVWV ZKHQ PDOHV KDG GHOLYHUHG RQH SULRU HMDFXODWLRQ ([S f )RU PRQWDQH YROHV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ FRSXODWRU\ PHDVXUHV ZHUH QRWHG LQ WHWKHU WHVWV ZKHQ PDWHG PDOHV KDG GHOLYHUHG RQH SULRU HMDFXODWLRQ ([S f ,Q WHWKHU WHVWV ZKHQ PDWHG PDOHV KDG GHOLYHUHG WKUHH SULRU HMDFXODWLRQV XQPDWHG PDOHV GHOLYHUHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH PRXQWV )XUWKHU WKHUH ZDV D WUHQG IRU XQPDWHG PDOHV WR GHOLYHU PRUH HMDFXODWLRQV SFf 2WKHU FRSXODWRU\ PHDVXUHV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW

PAGE 119

7KH VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ QXPEHU RI PRXQWV LQ ([SHULPHQW ZDV XQH[SHFWHG 2QH SRVVLEOH H[SODQDWLRQ LV VXJJHVWHG E\ WKH WHPSRUDO SDWWHUQ RI HMDFXODWLRQV GXULQJ WKLV H[SHULPHQW 2I WRWDO HMDFXODWLRQV bf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f IHPDOHV ZHUH OLNHO\ WR EH PRUH DJJUHVVLYH DQG UHVLVWDQW WR IXUWKHU FRSXODWRU\ DFWLYLW\ DQG f DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ RI SOXJ GHEULV PD\ KDYH PDGH HQWU\ PRUH GLIILFXOW 7KLV K\SRWKHVLV LV VWUHQJWKHQHG E\ DQ H[DPLQDWLRQ RI WKH PRXQW WRWDOV RI ([SHULPHQW LQ ZKLFK PDWHG PDOHV GHOLYHUHG RQH HMDFXODWLRQ SULRU WR WHVWLQJ 6LQFH PDWHG PDOHV ZHUH QRW DV GHSOHWHG WKH\ FRQWLQXHG FRSXODWLQJ ODWHU LQ WKH WHVW SHULRG WKDQ GLG WKH PDWHG PDOHV RI ([SHULPHQW 2I WRWDO HMDFXODWLRQV LQ ([SHULPHQW

PAGE 120

,OO bf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f LQ ZKLFK LQWURPLVVLRQV RFFXU DW LUUHJXODU LQWHUYDOV IRU KRXUV IROORZLQJ WKH ODVW HMDFXODWLRQ ,W LV OLNHO\ WKDW PDWHG PDOHV KDYLQJ GHOLYHUHG WKUHH HMDFXODWLRQV SULRU WR WHVWLQJ DQG D PHDQ RI HMDFXODWLRQV GXULQJ WHVWLQJ ZHUH DW RU DSSURDFKLQJ VDWLHW\ (MDFXODWLRQ GLIIHUHQFHV WKHUHIRUH ZHUH PRVW OLNHO\ D UHIOHFWLRQ RI LQFRPSOHWH

PAGE 121

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

PAGE 122

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f IRU PDOHV RI WKHVH WZR VSHFLHV DQG E\ 6DZUH\ f IRU PRQWDQH YROH IHPDOHV ,Q WKH VWXG\ RI )HUJXVRQ HW DO f PDOH SUDLULH YROHV SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ YLVLWHG DQG FRSXODWHG ZLWK XQPDWHG IHPDOHV LQ WHWKHU WHVWV DQG SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ YLVLWHG DQG VQLIIHG XQPDWHG IHPDOHV LQ DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WHVWV 0DOH PRQWDQH YROHV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFHV LQ WHWKHU WHVWV EXW YLVLWHG XQPDWHG IHPDOHV PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ LQ DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WHVWV )HPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV VKRZHG QR DVVRFLDWLRQ RU PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WHWKHUHG XQPDWHG PDOHV DQG WHWKHUHG PDOHV WKDW KDG PDWHG IRU RQH SULRU HMDFXODWLRQ 6DZUH\ f 2QH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ DQG WKH )UHJXVRQ HW DO f VWXG\ LV DSSDUHQW KRZHYHU 0DOH

PAGE 123

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t 'HZVEXU\ f 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG SDUWQHUV KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ RWKHU URGHQW VSHFLHV 3UHIHUHQFHV EDVHG RQ RQH HMDFXODWLRQ GHOLYHUHG WR WKH PDWHG SDUWQHU KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ E\ PDOH DQG IHPDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV .UDPHV t 0DVWURPDWWHR EXW VHH =XFNHU t :DGH f PDOH EURZQ OHPPLQJV +XFN HW DO f DQG PDOH FROODUHG OHPPLQJV +XFN HW DO f )HPDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV GLVSOD\HG SUHIHUHQFHV IRU DQHVWKHWL]HG XQPDWHG PDOHV RYHU PDOHV WKDW KDG DFKLHYHG SULRU HMDFXODWLRQV +XFN HW DO f EXW PDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHUV VKRZHG QR SUHIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ IUHVK DQG PDWHG DQHVWKHWL]HG IHPDOHV -RKQVWRQ t 5DVPXVVHQ f

PAGE 124

'HPRQVWUDWLRQV RI SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG IRU VHYHUDO VSHFLHV RXWVLGH WKH URGHQW IDPLO\ $PRQJ LQVHFWV PDOH IORXU EHHWOHV 7ULEROLXP FDVWDQHXP *UDXU t :RRO f PDOH DPEURVLD EHHWOHV 7U\SRGHQGURQ OLQHDWXP 1LMKROW f DQG IHPDOH 0DUNRZ 4XDLG t .HUU f DQG PDOH 7RPNLQV t +DOO f IUXLW IOLHV 'URVRSKLOD PHODQRJDVWHU SUHIHU WR PDWH ZLWK YLUJLQ RYHU PDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV )HPDOH OHPRQ WHWUDV +\SKHVVREUYFRQ SXOFKULSLQQLV H[KLELWHG D SUHIHUHQFH IRU IUHVK PDOHV RYHU PDOHV WKDW KDYH UHFHQWO\ VSDZQHG 1DNDWVXUX t .UDPHU f ,Q UDPV VH[XDO UHFRYHU\ IROORZLQJ HMDFXODWLRQ ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ JXLFNHU IROORZLQJ LQWURGXFWLRQ RI DQ XQPDWHG IHPDOH FRPSDUHG WR D UHFHQWO\ PDWHG HZH 3HSHONR t &OHJJ 3UHWRULXV f 7KLV VXUYH\ LQGLFDWHV WKDW SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG SDUWQHUV PD\ EH FRPPRQ WR D ZLGH YDULHW\ RI VSHFLHV 3UHIHUHQFHV LQ 3UDLULH DQG 0RQWDQH 9ROHV $ FOHDU SLFWXUH RI PDWLQJ DQG DVVRFLDWLRQ SUHIHUHQFHV LQ SUDLULH DQG PRQWDQH YROHV LV QRZ HPHUJLQJ 'HZVEXU\ Ef )LQGLQJV RI WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ DUH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK VHYHUDO EHKDYLRUDO GLIIHUHQFHV WKDW KDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG IRU WKH WZR VSHFLHV 'HZVEXU\ E 6KDSLUR f

PAGE 125

&RQWDFW DQG 3UR[LPLW\ 3UHIHUHQFHV 7KH SUHVHQW UHVXOWV DUH UHOHYDQW WR WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI SUDLULH YROHV DV SDLUERQGLQJ DQG FRQWDFW SURQH 6KDSLUR f 3UDLULH YROHV GXULQJ DQHVWKHWL]DWLRQ WULDOV VSHQW D JUHDWHU DPRXQW RI WLPH LQ SUR[LPLW\ WR D PDOH WKDQ GLG PRQWDQH YROH IHPDOHV 3UDLULH YROH IHPDOHV VSHQW D PHDQ WLPH RI VHF b RI WKH WRWDO WHVWLQJ WLPHf LQ ([S DQG VHF bf LQ ([S LQ D VHFWLRQ FRQWDLQLQJ D PDOH ZKHUHDV PRQWDQH YROH IHPDOHV VSHQW VHF bf LQ ([S DQG VHF bf LQ ([S ZLWK PDOHV 0HDQ WLPHV VQLIILQJ DQG O\LQJ EHVLGHDFURVV D PDOH ZHUH DOVR JUHDWO\ UHGXFHG LQ PRQWDQH YROHV FRPSDUHG WR SUDLULH YROHV VHH 7DEOH f 7KXV LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI FRSXODWLRQ SUDLULH YROH IHPDOHV DSSURDFKHG DQG UHPDLQHG LQ SUR[LPLW\ WR D PDOH ZKLOH PRQWDQH YROH IHPDOHV VKRZHG JUHDWHU DYRLGDQFH RI PDOHV 0DWLQJ 3UHIHUHQFHV 7KH VSHFLHV GLIIHU LQ WKH GHPRQVWUDWLRQ RI PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV %RWK VSHFLHV VHOHFW PDWHV RQ WKH EDVLV RI ZKDW PLJKW EH WHUPHG LGHQWLILFDWLRQ FULWHULD FULWHULD WKDW LGHQWLI\ LQGLYLGXDOV DV SRWHQWLDO DQG DSSURSULDWH PDWLQJ SDUWQHUV 0DOH DQG IHPDOH SUDLULH YROHV SUHIHU FRQVSHFLILFV WR KHWHURVSHFLILFV 3LHUFH HW DO f

PAGE 126

7DEOH ZLWK D 0DOH IRU 3UDLULH 9HUVXV 0RQWDQH 9ROH )HPDOHV LQ $QHVWKHWL]DWLRQ 7HVWV RI ([SHULPHQWV DQG 0HDVXUH 3UDLULH 0RQWDQH 0f 9ROHV 9ROHV 0DWHG 0DOHV 'HOLYHUHG 7KUHH (MDFXODWLRQV ([S f ([S f 7RWDO 7LPH 9LVLWLQJ D 0DOH VHFf 7LPH 6QLIILQJ D 0DOH VHFf 7LPH /\LQJ %HVLGH $FURVV D 0DOH VHFf 0DWHG 0DOHV 'HOLYHUHG 2QH (MDFXODWLRQ ([S f ([S f 7RWDO 7LPH 9LVLWLQJ D 0DOH VHFf 7LPH 6QLIILQJ D 0DOH VHFf 7LPH /\LQJ %HVLGH $FURVV D 0DOH VHFf

PAGE 127

PDOH EXW QRW IHPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV GR VLPLODUO\ 0F'RQDOG t )RUVOXQG f 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU DQLPDOV RI WKH RSSRVLWH VH[ KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG E\ PDOH DQG IHPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV 6DZUH\ t 'HZVEXU\ f DQG PDOH SUDLULH YROHV 7D\ORU t 'HZVEXU\ f )HPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV :HEVWHU HW DO f SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG DQG FRSXODWHG ZLWK LQWDFW WHWKHUHG PDOHV RYHU FDVWUDWHG WHWKHUHG PDOHV +RZHYHU WKH WZR VSHFLHV GLIIHU LQ WHUPV RI HYDOXDWLYH FULWHULD FULWHULD E\ ZKLFK LQGLYLGXDOV DUH DVVHVVHG IRU TXDOLW\ )HPDOH SUDLULH YROHV EXW QRW IHPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV VKRZHG SUHIHUHQWLDO DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG FRSXODWLRQ ZLWK GRPLQDQW RYHU VXERUGLQDWH PDOHV 6KDSLUR t 'HZVEXU\ f DQG IDPLOLDU RYHU QRYHO PDOHV 1HZPDQ t +DOSLQ 6KDSLUR HW DO f 0DOH SUDLULH YROHV SUHIHUUHG WKH RGRUV RI IDPLOLDU IHPDOHV RYHU RGRUV IURP XQIDPLOLDU LQGLYLGXDOV 1HZPDQ t +DOSLQ f 3UHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG YHUVXV PDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV WKH HYDOXDWLYH FULWHULD DVVHVVHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ DUH JHQHUDOO\ FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH VSHFLHV GLIIHUHQFHV LQ RWKHU HYDOXDWLYH FULWHULD 0XOWLSOH 0DWH 6LWXDWLRQV 7KH EHKDYLRU RI IHPDOHV GXULQJ WHWKHU WHVWV ZDV VLPLODU WR WKH EHKDYLRU GHPRQVWUDWHG E\ PDOHV LQ PXOWLSOH IHPDOH VLWXDWLRQV )XHQWHV t 'HZVEXU\ f 0DOH

PAGE 128

SUDLULH YROHV LQ WHWKHU WHVWV ZLWK WZR RU IRXU IHPDOHV SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG DQG FRSXODWHG ZLWK D VLQJOH SUHIHUUHG PDWLQJ SDUWQHU ZKHUHDV PDOH PRQWDQH YROHV GLVWULEXWHG FRSXODWLRQ PRUH HTXDOO\ DPRQJ WKH IHPDOHV SUHVHQW )XHQWHV t 'HZVEXU\ VHH DOVR )HUJXVRQ HW DO f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f ,Q IDFW WKH SUHVHQW ZRUN DQG UHODWHG VWXGLHV KDYH FRQILUPHG WKLV H[SHFWDWLRQ 3UDLULH YROHV D JHQHUDOO\ PRQRJDPRXV VSHFLHV GLVSOD\ DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV EDVHG RQ VHYHUDO GLIIHUHQW FULWHULD LQFOXGLQJ WKH PDWHG YHUVXV

PAGE 129

XQPDWHG VWDWXV RI SRWHQWLDO PDWLQJ SDUWQHUV 7KHVH FULWHULD DSSDUHQWO\ GR QRW LQIOXHQFH PDWLQJ EHKDYLRUV E\ PRQWDQH YROHV D JHQHUDOO\ SRO\JDPRXV VSHFLHV 0DWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV FDQ EH YLHZHG DV RQH RI WKH VWDEOH EHKDYLRUDO SDWWHUQV XQGHUO\LQJ WKH PDWLQJ V\VWHPV RI SUDLULH DQG PRQWDQH YROHV

PAGE 130

5()(5(1&(6 $GDPV & ( t 6LQJK 0 0 f 6HPHQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG IHUWLOLW\ RI UDEELWV VXEMHFWHG WR H[KDXVWLYH XVH /DERUDWRU\ $QLPDOV $JUHQ f 7ZR ODERUDWRU\ H[SHULPHQWV RQ LQEUHHGLQJ DYRLGDQFH LQ WKH 0RQJROLDQ JHUELO %HKDYLRXUDO 3URFHVVHV $JUHQ Df $OWHUQDWLYH PDWLQJ VWUDWHJLHV LQ WKH 0RQJROLDQ JHUELO %HKDYLRXU $JUHQ Ef ,QFHVW DYRLGDQFH DQG ERQGLQJ EHWZHHQ VLEOLQJV LQ JHUELOV %HKDYLRUDO (FRORJ\ DQG 6RFLRELRORT\ $JUHQ Ff 3DLU IRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH 0RQJROLDQ JHUELO $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU $JUHQ t 0H\HUVRQ % f ,QIOXHQFH RI JRQDGDO KRUPRQHV RQ WKH EHKDYLRXU RI SDLUOLYLQJ 0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV 0HULRQHV XQDXLFXODWXVf WRZDUGV WKH FDJHPDWH YHUVXV D QRQFDJHPDWH LQ D VRFLDO FKRLFH WHVW %HKDYLRXUDO 3URFHVVHV $JUHQ t 0H\HUVRQ % f ,QIOXHQFH RI PDOH HQGRFULQH FRQGLWLRQ RQ WKH FKRLFH RI VRFLDO FRQWDFW LQ SDLUOLYLQJ 0RQJROLDQ JHUELOV 0HULRQHV XQTXLFXODWXVfA %HKDYLRXUDO 3URFHVVHV $OERQHWWL 0 ( t 'n8GLQH % f 6RFLDO H[SHULHQFH RFFXUULQJ GXULQJ DGXOW OLIH ,WV HIIHFWV RQ VRFLR VH[XDO ROIDFWRU\ SUHIHUHQFHV LQ LQEUHG PLFH 0XV PXVFXOXV $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU $XJXVW 3 9 f 6FHQW FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LQ WKH VRXWKHUQ SODLQV ZRRG UDW 1HRWRPD PLFURSXV $PHULFDQ 0LGODQG 1DWXUDOLVW $XVWLQ t 'HZVEXU\ $ f 5HSURGXFWLYH FDSDFLW\ RI PDOH ODERUDWRU\ UDWV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU %DUQDUG & t )LW]VLPRQV f .LQ UHFRJQLWLRQ DQG PDWH FKRLFH LQ PLFH 7KH HIIHFWV RI NLQVKLS

PAGE 131

IDPLOLDULW\ DQG VRFLDO LQWHUIHUHQFH RQ LQWHUVH[XDO LQWHUDFWLRQ $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU %DWHVRQ 3 3 f (DUO\ H[SHULHQFH DQG VH[XDO SUHIHUHQFHV ,Q % +XWFKLVRQ (Gf %LRORJLFDO GHWHUPLQDQWV RI EHKDYLRU SS f 1HZ
PAGE 132

%URRNV 5 f &DXVHV DQG FRQVHTXHQFHV RI LQIDQWLFLGH LQ SRSXODWLRQV RI URGHQWV ,Q +DXVIDWHU t 6 % +UG\ (GVf ,QIDQWLFLGH &RPSDUDWLYH DQG HYROXWLRQDU\ SHUVSHFWLYHV 1HZ
PAGE 133

QRYHO IHPDOHV %HKDYLRUDO DQG 1HXUDO %LRORJ\ &DUU : .LPPHO 5 $QWKRQ\ 6 / t 6FKORFNHU ( f )HPDOH UDWV SUHIHU WR PDWH ZLWK GRPLQDQW UDWKHU WKDQ VXERUGLQDWH PDOHV %XOOHWLQ RI WKH 3VYFKRQRPLF 6RFLHW\ &DUU : )UDPHV / t &RVWDQ]R f 3UHYLRXV VH[XDO H[SHULHQFH DQG ROIDFWRU\ SUHIHUHQFH IRU QRYHO YHUVXV RULJLQDO VH[ SDUWQHUV LQ UDWV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ &DUU : /RHE / 6 t 'LVVLQJHU 0 / f 5HVSRQVHV RI UDWV WR VH[ RGRUV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ &DUU : :\OLH 1 5 t /RHE / 6 f 5HVSRQVHV RI DGXOW DQG LPPDWXUH UDWV WR VH[ RGRUV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ &DUWHU & 6 t *HW] / / f 6RFLDO DQG KRUPRQDO GHWHUPLQDQWV RI UHSURGXFWLYH SDWWHUQV LQ WKH SUDLULH YROH ,Q 5 *LOHV t %DOWKD]DUW (GVf 1HXURELRORJ\ SS f %HUOLQ 6SULQJHU9HUODJ &DUWHU & 6 *HW] / / t &RKHQ3DUVRQV 0 f 5HODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ VRFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ DQG EHKDYLRUDO HQGRFULQRORJ\ LQ D PRQRJDPRXV PDPPDO $GYDQFHV LQ WKH 6WXG\ RI %HKDYLRU &DUWHU 5 / t %UDQG / 5 f 6SHFLHV UHFRJQLWLRQ LQ ZLOGFDXJKW ODERUDWRU\UHDUHG DQG FURVVIRVWHUHG 3HURPYVFXV FDOLIRUQLFXV DQG 3HURPYVFXV HUHPLFXV 5RGHQWLD &ULFHWLGDHf $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU &ROH ) 5 t %DW]OL f 1XWULWLRQ DQG SRSXODWLRQ G\QDPLFV RI WKH SUDLULH YROH 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU LQ FHQWUDO ,OOLQRLV -RXUQDO RI $QLPDO (FRORJ\ &RRSHUVPLWK & % t %DQNV ( 0 f (IIHFWV RI ROIDFWRU\ FXHV RQ VH[XDO EHKDYLRU LQ WKH EURZQ OHPPLQJ /HPPXV WULPXFURQDWXV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ 'DO\ 0 f 6RPH H[SHULPHQWDO WHVWV RI WKH IXQFWLRQDO VLJQLILFDQFH RI VFHQWPDUNLQJ E\ JHUELOV I0HULRQHV XQJXLFXODWXVf -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\

PAGE 134

'DYLV + 1 -U *UD\ t 'HZVEXU\ $ f 0DWHUQDO DJH DQG PDOH EHKDYLRU LQ UHODWLRQ WR VXFFHVVIXO UHSURGXFWLRQ E\ IHPDOH UDWV 5DWWXV QRUYHJLFXVf -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 'DYLV + 1 *UD\ =HU\OQLFN 0 t 'HZVEXU\ $ f 2YXODWLRQ DQG LPSODQWDWLRQ LQ PRQWDQH YROHV 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXVf DV D IXQFWLRQ RI YDU\LQJ DPRXQWV RI FRSXODWRU\ VWLPXODWLRQ +RUPRQHV DQG %HKDYLRU GH -RQJH ) + %XUJHU YDQ +DDUHQ ) 2YHUGLMN + t YDQ GH 3ROO 1 ( f 6H[XDO H[SHULHQFH DQG SUHIHUHQFHV IRU PDOHV RU IHPDOHV LQ WKH IHPDOH UDW %HKDYLRUDO DQG 1HXUDO %LRORJ\ GH -RQJH ) + (HUODQG ( 0 t YDQ GH 3ROO 1 ( f 7KH LQIOXHQFH RI HVWURJHQ WHVWRVWHURQH DQG SURJHVWHURQH RQ SDUWQHU SUHIHUHQFH UHFHSWLYLW\ DQG SURFHSWLYLW\ 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU 'HQHQEHUJ 9 + +XGJHQV $ t =DUURZ 0 ; f 0LFH UHDUHG ZLWK UDWV 0RGLILFDWLRQ RI EHKDYLRU E\ HDUO\ H[SHULHQFH ZLWK DQRWKHU VSHFLHV 6FLHQFH 'HQL 5 9RFLQR t (SVWHLQ 0 f (IIHFWV RI NLQVKLS DJH DQG VH[ RQ VRFLDO SUHIHUHQFHV LQ UDWV PHDVXUHG LQ DQ RSHUDQW UHVSRQVH VLWXDWLRQ %XOOHWLQ RI WKH 3VYFKRQRPLF 6RFLHW\ 'HVMDUGLQV & 0DUXQLDN $ t %URQVRQ ) + f 6RFLDO UDQN LQ KRXVH PLFH 'LIIHUHQWLDWLRQ E\ XOWUDn YLROHW YLVXDOL]DWLRQ RI XULQDU\ PDUNLQJ SDWWHUQV 6FLHQFH 'HZVEXU\ $ f &RSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU RI PRQWDQH YROHV 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXVf %HKDYLRXU 'HZVEXU\ $ f &RSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU RI ZLOG WUDSSHG DQG ODERUDWRU\UHDUHG FDFWXV PLFH 3HURPYVFXV HUHPLFXVf IURP WZR GLIIHUHQW QDWXUDO SRSXODWLRQV %HKDYLRUDO %LRORJ\ 'HZVEXU\ $ f 7KH FRPSDUDWLYH PHWKRG LQ VWXGLHV RI UHSURGXFWLYH EHKDYLRU ,Q 7 ( 0F*LOO $ 'HZVEXU\ t % 6DFKV (GVf 6H[ DQG %HKDYLRU SS f 1HZ
PAGE 135

VSHFLHV RI PXURLG URGHQWV 7KH %LRORJLVW 'HZVEXU\ $ Df (MDFXODWH FRVW DQG PDOH FKRLFH $PHULFDQ 1DWXUDOLVW 'HZVEXU\ $ Ef $YRLGDQFH RI LQFHVWXRXV EUHHGLQJ EHWZHHQ VLEOLQJV LQ WZR VSHFLHV RI 3HURPYVFXV PLFH %LRORJ\ RI %HKDYLRU 'HZVEXU\ $ f 0XURLG URGHQWV DV UHVHDUFK DQLPDOV ,/$5 1HZV 'HZVEXU\ $ f 3DWHUQDO EHKDYLRU LQ URGHQWV $PHULFDQ =RRORJLVW 'HZVEXU\ $ f /DERUDWRU\ UHVHDUFK RQ EHKDYLRUDO LQWHUDFWLRQV DV JHQHUDWRUV RI SRSXODWLRQ SKHQRPHQD LQ URGHQWV $PHULFDQ =RRORJLVW 'HZVEXU\ $ Df .LQ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ DQG UHSURGXFWLYH EHKDYLRU LQ PXURLG URGHQWV %HKDYLRU *HQHWLFV 'HZVEXU\ $ Ef 7KH FRPSDUDWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ RI PRQRJDP\ 1HEUDVND 6\PSRVLXP RQ 0RWLYDWLRQ 'HZVEXU\ $ Ff 0DWLQJ FDSDFLW\ RI PDOH GHHU PLFH 3HURPYVFXV PDQLFXODWXV EDLUGLf FRSXODWLQJ ZLWK VXFFHVVLYH IHPDOHV %XOOHWLQ RI WKH 3VYFKRQRPLF 6RFLHW\ 'HZVEXU\ $ )HUJXVRQ % +RGJHV $ : t 7D\ORU 6 $ f 7HVWV RI SUHIHUHQFHV RI GHHU PLFH 3HURP\VFXV PDQLFXODWXV EDLUGLf IRU LQGLYLGXDOV DQG WKHLU RGRUV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI VH[ DQG HVWURXV FRQGLWLRQ -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ 'LDPRQG 0 f ,QWURPLVVLRQ SDWWHUQ DQG VSHFLHV YDJLQDO FRGH LQ UHODWLRQ WR LQGXFWLRQ RI SVHXGRSUHJQDQF\ 6FLHQFH 'LDPRQG 0 f 9DJLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ DQG SURJHVWHURQH LQ UHODWLRQ WR SUHJQDQF\ DQG SDUWXULWLRQ %LRORJ\ RI 5HSURGXFWLRQ 'RW\ 5 / f 2GRU SUHIHUHQFHV RI IHPDOH 3HURPYVFXV PDQLFXODWXV EDLUGL IRU PDOH PRXVH RGRUV RI 3 P EDLUGL DQG 3 OHXFRSXV QRYHERUDFHQVLV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI HVWURXV VWDWH -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\

PAGE 136

'RW\ 5 / f 5HDFWLRQV RI GHHU PLFH 3HURPYVFXV PDQLFXODWXVf DQG ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH 3HURPYVFXV OHXFRSXVf WR KRPRVSHFLILF DQG KHWHURVSHFLILF XULQH RGRUV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 'RW\ 5 / f $ FU\ IRU WKH OLEHUDWLRQ RI WKH IHPDOH URGHQW &RXUWVKLS DQG FRSXODWLRQ LQ 5RGHQWLD 3V\FKRORJLFDO %XOOHWLQ 'RW\ 5 / f 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RI RGRXU SUHIHUHQFHV LQ URGHQWV $ PHWKRGRORJLFDO UHYLHZ ,Q 0RXOWRQ : -RKQVRQ t $ 7XUN (GVf 0HWKRGV LQ ROIDFWRU\ UHVHDUFK SS f /RQGRQ $FDGHPLF 3UHVV 'UHZHWW 5 ) f 6H[XDO EHKDYLRXU DQG VH[XDO PRWLYDWLRQ LQ WKH IHPDOH UDW 1DWXUH 'UHZHWW 5 ) t 6SLWHUL 1 f 7KH VH[XDO DWWUDFWLYHQHVV RI PDOH UDWV 2OIDFWRU\ DQG EHKDYLRUDO FRPSRQHQWV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU 'ULFNDPHU / & f &DSWXUHV RI WZR VSHFLHV RI 3HURPYVFXV DW OLYH WUDSV EDLWHG ZLWK PDOH DQG IHPDOH RGRUV -RXUQDO RI 0DPPDORJ\ 'ULFNDPHU / & f 3UHJQDQF\ EORFN LQ ZLOG VWRFN KRXVH PLFH 0XV GRPHVWLFXV 2OIDFWRU\ SUHIHUHQFHV RI IHPDOHV GXULQJ JHVWDWLRQ $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU 'n8GLQH % t $OOHYD ( f (DUO\ H[SHULHQFH DQG VH[XDO SUHIHUHQFHV LQ URGHQWV ,Q 3 %DWHVRQ (Gf 0DWH FKRLFH SS f &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 'n8GLQH % t 3DUWULGJH / f 2OIDFWRU\ SUHIHUHQFHV RI LQEUHG PLFH 0XV PXVFXOXVf IRU WKHLU RZQ VWUDLQ DQG IRU VLEOLQJV (IIHFWV RI VWUDLQ VH[ DQG FURVVIRVWHULQJ %HKDYLRXU 'XGOH\ & $ t 0RVV 5 / f /+5+ DQG PDWLQJ EHKDYLRU 6H[XDO UHFHSWLYLW\ YHUVXV VH[XDO SUHIHUHQFH 3KDUPDFRORJ\ %LRFKHPLVWU\ t %HKDYLRU (GZDUGV & f 7KH HIIHFWV RI 7ULFKLQHOOD VSLUDOLV LQIHFWLRQ RQ VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQV LQ PL[HG JURXSV RI LQIHFWHG DQG XQLQIHFWHG PDOH PLFH $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU

PAGE 137

(GZDUGV & t %DUQDUG & f 7KH HIIHFWV RI 7ULFKLQHOOD LQIHFWLRQ RQ LQWHUVH[XDO LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ PLFH $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU (JLG t /HQLQJWRQ 6 f 5HVSRQVHV RI PDOH PLFH WR RGRUV RI IHPDOHV (IIHFWV RI 7 DQG +ORFXV JHQRW\SH %HKDYLRU *HQHWLFV )HUJXVRQ % t 'HZVEXU\ $ f 'MXQJDULDQ KDPVWHU IHPDOHV FRQFHLYH LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI PXOWLSOH VLEOLQJ PDOHV $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU )HUJXVRQ % )XHQWHV 6 0 6DZUH\ t 'HZVEXU\ $ f 0DOH SUHIHUHQFHV IRU XQPDWHG YHUVXV PDWHG IHPDOHV LQ WZR VSHFLHV RI YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURDDVWHU DQG 0 PRQWDQXVf -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ )HUNLQ 0 + Df 7KH HIIHFW RI IDPLOLDULW\ RQ VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQV LQ PHDGRZ YROHV 0LFURWXV SHQQVYOYDQLFXV $ ODERUDWRU\ DQG ILHOG VWXG\ $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU )HUNLQ 0 + Ef 6HDVRQDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ VRFLDO EHKDYLRU DPRQJ DGXOW DQG MXYHQLOH PHDGRZ YROHV 0LFURWXV SHQQVYOYDQLFXV (WKRORJ\ )HUNLQ 0 + t 6HDPRQ f 2GRU SUHIHUHQFH DQG VRFLDO EHKDYLRU LQ PHDGRZ YROHV 0LFURWXV SHQQVYOYDQLFXV 6HDVRQDO GLIIHUHQFHV &DQDGLDQ -RXUQDO RI =RRORJ\ )LVFKHU 5 % 2OVHQ 1 t 0HXQLHU ) f %UHHGLQJ KLVWRU\ DQG ROIDFWRU\ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ LQ WKH 6\ULDQ KDPVWHU %HKDYLRXUDO 3URFHVVHV )OHPLQJ $ 6 &KHH 3 t 9DFFDULQR ) f 6H[XDO EHKDYLRXU DQG LWV ROIDFWRU\ FRQWURO LQ WKH GHVHUW ZRRGUDW 1HRWRPD OHSLGD OHSLGDf $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU )ORRG\ 2 5 t 3IDII : f &RPPXQLFDWLRQ DPRQJ KDPVWHUV E\ KLJKIUHTXHQF\ DFRXVWLF VLJQDOV ,,, 5HVSRQVHV HYRNHG E\ QDWXUDO DQG V\QWKHWLF XOWUDVRXQGV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ )UHQFK )LW]SDWULFN t /DZ 2 7 f 2SHUDQW LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV LQ IHPDOH UDWV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ )XHQWHV 6 0 t 'HZVEXU\ $ f &RSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU RI YROHV 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXV DQG 0

PAGE 138

RFKURJDVWHUf LQ PXOWLSOHIHPDOH WHVW VLWXDWLRQV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ *DYLVK / &DUWHU & 6 t *HW] / / f )XUWKHU HYLGHQFH IRU PRQRJDP\ LQ WKH SUDLULH YROH $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU *DYLVK / +RIPDQQ ( t *HW] / / f 6LEOLQJ UHFRJQLWLRQ LQ WKH SUDLULH YROH 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU *HW] / / f $JJUHVVLYH EHKDYLRU RI WKH PHDGRZ DQG SUDLULH YROHV -RXUQDO RI 0DPPDORJ\ *HW] / / f +DELWDWV ,Q 5 + 7DPDULQ (Gf %LRORJ\ RI QHZ ZRUOG 0LFURWXV SS f /DZUHQFH .6 $PHULFDQ 6RFLHW\ RI 0DPPDORJLVWV *HW] / / t &DUWHU & 6 f 6RFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU SRSXODWLRQV 7KH %LRORJLVW *HW] / / &DUWHU & 6 t *DYLVK / f 7KH PDWLQJ V\VWHP RI WKH SUDLULH YROH 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU )LHOG DQG ODERUDWRU\ HYLGHQFH IRU SDLUn ERQGLQJ %HKDYLRUDO (FRORJ\ DQG 6RFLRELRORJ\ *HW] / / t +RIPDQQ ( f 6RFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ IUHHOLYLQJ SUDLULH YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU %HKDYLRUDO (FRORJ\ DQG 6RFLRELRORJ\ *HW] / / +RIPDQQ ( t -LNH / f 5HODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ VRFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ PDWLQJ V\VWHP DQG KDELWDWV RI PLFURWLQDH URGHQWV $FWD 7KHULRORTLFD 6LQLFD *HW] / / t 3L]]XWR 7 0 f 0DWLQJ V\VWHP PDWH SUHIHUHQFH DQG UDULW\ RI EORQGH SUDLULH YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU 7UDQVDFWLRQV RI WKH ,OOLQRLV $FDGHP\ RI 6FLHQFH *LOGHU 3 0 t 6ODWHU 3 % f ,QWHUHVW RI PLFH LQ FRQVSHFLILF PDOH RGRXUV LV LQIOXHQFHG E\ GHJUHH RI NLQVKLS 1DWXUH *LOPDQ 3 t :HVWEURRN : + f 0DWLQJ SUHIHUHQFH DQG VH[XDO UHLQIRUFHPHQW LQ IHPDOH UDWV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU *RGIUH\ f 7KH RULJLQ RI VH[XDO LVRODWLRQ EHWZHHQ EDQN YROHV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 5R\DO 3K\VLFDO 6RFLHW\ RI (GLQEXUJK

PAGE 139

*UDXU t :RRO f '\QDPLFV DQG JHQHWLFV RI PDWLQJ EHKDYLRU LQ 7ULEROLXP FDVWDQHXP &ROHSWHUD 7HQHEULRQLGDHf %HKDYLRU *HQHWLFV *UD\ t 'HZVEXU\ $ f $ TXDQWLWDWLYH GHVFULSWLRQ RI FRSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU LQ SUDLULH YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURDDVWHUf %UDLQ %HKDYLRU DQG (YROXWLRQ *UD\ =HU\OQLFN 0 'DYLV + 1 t 'HZVEXU\ $ f (IIHFWV RI YDULDWLRQV LQ PDOH FRSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU RQ RYXODWLRQ DQG LPSODQWDWLRQ LQ SUDLULH YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURDDVWHU +RUPRQHV DQG %HKDYLRU *UHJRU\ ( (QJHO t 3IDII f 0DOH KDPVWHU SUHIHUHQFH IRU RGRUV RI IHPDOH KDPVWHU YDJLQDO GLVFKDUJHV 6WXGLHV RI H[SHULHQWLDO DQG KRUPRQDO GHWHUPLQDQWV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ *UXGHU$GDPV 6 t *HW] / / f &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH PDWLQJ V\VWHP DQG SDWHUQDO EHKDYLRU LQ 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU DQG 0 RHQQVYOYDQLFXV -RXUQDO RI 0DPPDORJ\ +DOOLGD\ 7 5 f 7KH VWXG\ RI PDWH FKRLFH ,Q %DWHVRQ 3 (Gf 0DWH &KRLFH SS f &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV +DOSLQ = 7 f ,QGLYLGXDO RGRUV DQG LQGLYLGXDO UHFRJQLWLRQ 5HYLHZ DQG FRPPHQWDU\ %LRORJ\ RI %HKDYLRXU +DPLOWRQ : t =XN 0 f +HULWDEOH WUXH ILWQHVV DQG EULJKW ELUGV $ UROH IRU SDUDVLWHV" 6FLHQFH +DUWXQJ 7 t 'HZVEXU\ $ f 3DWHUQDO EHKDYLRU LQ VL[ VSHFLHV RI PXURLG URGHQWV %HKDYLRUDO DQG 1HXUDO %LRORJ\ +D\DVKL 6 t .LPXUD 7 f 6H[DWWUDFWDQW HPLWWHG E\ IHPDOH PLFH 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU +D\DVKL 6 t .LPXUD 7 f (IIHFWV RI H[SRVXUH WR PDOHV RQ VH[XDO SUHIHUHQFH LQ IHPDOH PLFH $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU +D\DVKL 6 t .LPXUD 7 f 'HJUHH RI NLQVKLS DV D IDFWRU UHJXODWLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV DPRQJ FRQVSHFLILFV LQ PLFH $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU

PAGE 140

+HQGULFNV 6 ( /HKPDQ 5 t 2VZDOW / f (IIHFWV RI FRSXODWLRQ RQ UHSURGXFWLYH IXQFWLRQ LQ DJHG IHPDOH UDWV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU +HSSHU 3 f .LQ UHFRJQLWLRQ )XQFWLRQV DQG PHFKDQLVPV $ UHYLHZ %LRORJLFDO 5HYLHZV +HVNH ( t 1HOVRQ 5 f 3UHJQDQF\ LQWHUUXSWLRQ LQ 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU /DERUDWRU\ DUWLIDFW RU ILHOG SKHQRPHQRQ" %LRORJ\ RI 5HSURGXFWLRQ +LOO / f 3HURPYVFXV (IIHFW RI HDUO\ SDLULQJ RQ UHSURGXFWLRQ 6FLHQFH +LOO 7 ( t 7KRPDV 7 5 f 7KH UROH RI UHLQIRUFHPHQW LQ WKH VH[XDO EHKDYLRXU RI WKH IHPDOH UDW 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU +RIIPH\HU f 5HVSRQVHV RI IHPDOH EDQN YROHV &OHWKULRQRPYV JODUHROXVO WR GRPLQDQW YV VXERUGLQDWH FRQVSHFLILF PDOHV DQG WR XULQH RGRUV IURP GRPLQDQW YV VXERUGLQDWH PDOHV %HKDYLRUDO DQG 1HXUDO %LRORJ\ +RIPDQQ ( *HW] / / t *DYLVK / f +RPH UDQJH RYHUODS DQG QHVW FRKDELWDWLRQ RI PDOH DQG IHPDOH SUDLULH YROHV $PHULFDQ 0LGODQG 1DWXUDOLVW +RIPDQQ ( *HW] / / t *DYLVK / f (IIHFW RI PXOWLSOH VKRUWWHUP H[SRVXUHV RI SUHJQDQW 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU WR VWUDQJH PDOHV -RXUQDO RI 0DPPDORJ\ +XFN 8 : t %DQNV ( 0 f %HKDYLRUDO FRPSRQHQWV RI LQGLYLGXDO UHFRJQLWLRQ LQ WKH FROODUHG OHPPLQJ 'LFURVWRQY[ JURHQODQGLFXVf %HKDYLRUDO (FRORJ\ DQG 6RFLRELRORJ\ +XFN 8 : t %DQNV ( 0 Df 7KH HIIHFWV RI FURVVIRVWHULQJ RQ WKH EHKDYLRXU RI WZR VSHFLHV RI 1RUWK $PHULFDQ OHPPLQJV 'LFURVWRQY[ JURHQODQGLFXV DQG /HPPXV WULPXFURQDWXV 2OIDFWRU\ SUHIHUHQFHV $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU +XFN 8 : t %DQNV ( 0 Ef 7KH HIIHFWV RI FURVVIRVWHULQJ RQ WKH EHKDYLRXU RI WZR VSHFLHV RI 1RUWK $PHULFDQ OHPPLQJV 'LFURVWRQY[ JURHQODQGLFXV DQG /HPPXV WULPXFURQDWXV ,, 6H[XDO EHKDYLRXU $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU

PAGE 141

+XFN 8 : t %DQNV ( 0 Df 0DOH GRPLQDQFH VWDWXV IHPDOH FKRLFH DQG PDWLQJ VXFFHVV LQ WKH EURZQ OHPPLQJ /HPPXV WULPXFURQDWXV $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU +XFN 8 : t %DQNV ( 0 Ef 'LIIHUHQWLDO DWWUDFWLRQ RI IHPDOHV WR GRPLQDQW PDOHV 2OIDFWRU\ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ DQG PDWLQJ SUHIHUHQFH LQ WKH EURZQ OHPPLQJ /HPPXV WULPXFURQDWXVf %HKDYLRUDO (FRORJ\ DQG 6RFLRELRORJ\ +XFN 8 : t %DQNV ( 0 f 6RFLDO ROIDFWLRQ LQ PDOH EURZQ OHPPLQJV /HPPXV VLELULFXV WULPXFURQDWXVf DQG FROODUHG OHPPLQJV 'LFURVWRQY[ TURHQODQGLFXVf 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ RI VSHFLHV VH[ DQG HVWURXV FRQGLWLRQ -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ +XFN 8 : %DQNV ( 0 t &RRSHUVPLWK & % f 6RFLDO ROIDFWLRQ LQ PDOH EURZQ OHPPLQJV /HPPXV VLELULFXV WULPXFURQDWXVf DQG FROODUHG OHPPLQJV 'LFURVWRQY[ TURHQODQGLFXVf ,, 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ RI PDWHG DQG XQPDWHG IHPDOHV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ +XFN 8 : %DQNV ( 0 t :DQJ 6& f 2OIDFWRU\ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ RI VRFLDO VWDWXV LQ WKH EURZQ OHPPLQJ %HKDYLRUDO DQG 1HXUDO %LRORJ\ +XFN 8 : t /LVN 5 Df 'HWHUPLQDQWV RI PDWLQJ VXFFHVV LQ WKH JROGHQ KDPVWHU 0HVRFULFHWXV DXUDWXVf 0DOH FDSDFLW\ -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ +XFN 8 : t /LVN 5 Ef 'HWHUPLQDQWV RI PDWLQJ VXFFHVV LQ WKH JROGHQ KDPVWHU 0HVRFULFHWXV DXUDWXVf ,, 3UHJQDQF\ LQLWLDWLRQ -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ +XFN 8 : /LVN 5 $OOLVRQ & t 9DQ 'RQJHQ & f 'HWHUPLQDQWV RI PDWLQJ VXFFHVV LQ WKH JROGHQ KDPVWHU 0HVRFULFHWXV DXUDWXVf 6RFLDO GRPLQDQFH DQG PDWLQJ WDFWLFV XQGHU VHPLQDWXUDO FRQGLWLRQV $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU +XFN 8 : /LVN 5 t *RUH $ & f 6FHQW PDUNLQJ DQG PDWH FKRLFH LQ WKH JROGHQ KDPVWHU 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU +XFN 8 : /LVN 5 t *X\WRQ & / f 6WLPXOXV UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU SUHJQDQF\ LQLWLDWLRQ LQ WKH JROGHQ KDPVWHU 0HVRFULFHWXV DXUDWXVf FKDQJH ZLWK DJH DQG SDULW\ -RXUQDO RI 5HSURGXFWLRQ DQG )HUWLOLW\

PAGE 142

+XFN 8 : /LVN 5 .LP 6 t (YDQV $ % f 2OIDFWRU\ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ RI HVWURXV FRQGLWLRQ E\ WKH PDOH JROGHQ KDPVWHU 0HVRFULFHWXV DXUDWXVf %HKDYLRUDO DQG 1HXUDO %LRORJ\ +XFN 8 : /LVN 5 3£UHQWH ( t 3ULQFLSDWR ( f 'HWHUPLQDQWV RI PDWLQJ VXFFHVV LQ WKH JROGHQ KDPVWHU 0HVRFULFHWXV DXUDWXVf ,,, )HPDOH DFFHSWDQFH RI PXOWLSOH PDWLQJ SDUWQHUV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ +XGJHQV $ 'HQHQEHUJ 9 + t =DUURZ 0 ; f 0LFH UHDUHG ZLWK UDWV (IIHFWV RI SUHZHDQLQJ DQG SRVWZHDQLQJ VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQV XSRQ DGXOW EHKDYLRXU %HKDYLRXU -DQQHWW ) -U f 7KH GHQVLW\GHSHQGHQW IRUPDWLRQ RI H[WHQGHG PDWHUQDO IDPLOLHV RI WKH PRQWDQH YROH 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXV QDQXV %HKDYLRUDO (FRORJ\ DQG 6RFLRELRORJ\ -DQQHWW ) -U f 6RFLDO G\QDPLFV RI WKH PRQWDQH YROH 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXV DV D SDUDGLJP %LRORJLVW -DQQHWW ) -U f 1HVWLQJ SDWWHUQV RI DGXOW YROHV 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXV LQ ILHOG SRSXODWLRQV -RXUQDO RI 0DPPDORJ\ -RKQVWRQ 5 ( f 6H[XDO DWWUDFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ RI JROGHQ KDPVWHU YDJLQDO VHFUHWLRQ %HKDYLRUDO %LRORJ\ -RKQVWRQ 5 ( f 2OIDFWRU\ SUHIHUHQFHV VFHQW PDUNLQJ DQG SURFHSWLYLW\ LQ IHPDOH KDPVWHUV +RUPRQHV DQG %HKDYLRU -RKQVWRQ 5 ( f 5HVSRQVHV RI PDOH KDPVWHUV WR RGRUV RI IHPDOHV LQ GLIIHUHQW UHSURGXFWLYH VWDWHV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ -RKQVWRQ 5 ( f $WWUDFWLRQ WR RGRUV LQ KDPVWHUV $Q HYDOXDWLRQ RI PHWKRGV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ -RKQVWRQ 5 ( f &KHPLFDO VLJQDOV DQG UHSURGXFWLYH EHKDYLRU ,Q 9DQGHQEHUJK (Gf 3KHURPRQHV DQG UHSURGXFWLRQ LQ PDPPDOV SS f 1HZ
PAGE 143

&KHPLFDO FXHV DQG RI WKH ROIDFWRU\ DQG YRPHURQDVDO V\VWHPV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU -RQHV 5 % t 1RZHOO 1 : f $YHUVLYH DQG DJJUHVVLRQSURPRWLQJ SURSHUWLHV RI XULQH IURP GRPLQDQW DQG VXERUGLQDWH PDOH PLFH $QLPDO /HDUQLQJ t %HKDYLRU -RQHV 5 % t 1RZHOO 1 : f $ FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH DYHUVLYH DQG IHPDOH DWWUDFWDQW SURSHUWLHV RI XULQH IURP GRPLQDQW DQG VXERUGLQDWH PDOH PLFH $QLPDO /HDUQLQJ t %HKDYLRU .LUFKKRI*OD]LHU $ f $EVHQFH RI VH[XDO LPSULQWLQJ LQ KRXVH PLFH FURVVIRVWHUHG WR GHHUPLFH 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU .OHLPDQ f 0RQRJDP\ LQ PDPPDOV 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ RI %LRORJ\ .OHLPDQ t 0DOFROP 5 f 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI PDOH SDUHQWDO LQYHVWPHQW LQ PDPPDOV ,Q *XEHUQLFN t 3 + .ORSIHU (GVf 3DUHQWDO FDUH LQ PDPPDOV 1HZ
PAGE 144

/DJHUVSHW] t +HLQR 7 f &KDQJHV LQ VRFLDO UHDFWLRQV UHVXOWLQJ IURP HDUO\ H[SHULHQFH ZLWK DQRWKHU VSHFLHV 3V\FKRORJLFDO 5HSRUWV /DQGDXHU 0 5 %DQNV ( 0 t &DUWHU & 6 f 6H[XDO SUHIHUHQFHV RI PDOH KDPVWHUV 0HVRFULFHWXV DXUDWXVf IRU FRQVSHFLILFV LQ GLIIHUHQFH HQGRFULQH FRQGLWLRQV +RUPRQHV DQG %HKDYLRU /DQGDXHU 0 5 %DQNV ( 0 t &DUWHU & 6 f 6H[XDO DQG ROIDFWRU\ SUHIHUHQFHV RI QDLYH DQG H[SHULHQFHG PDOH KDPVWHUV $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU /DQLHU / (VWHS 4 t 'HZVEXU\ $ f &RSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU RI JROGHQ KDPVWHUV (IIHFWV RQ SUHJQDQF\ 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU /HQLQJWRQ 6 f 6RFLDO SUHIHUHQFHV IRU SDUWQHUV FDUU\LQJ nJRRG JHQHVn LQ ZLOG KRXVH PLFH $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU /HQLQJWRQ 6 t (JLG f )HPDOH GLVFULPLQDWLRQ RI PDOH RGRUV FRUUHODWHG ZLWK PDOH JHQRW\SH DW WKH 7 ORFXV $ UHVSRQVH WR 7ORFXV RU +ORFXV YDULDELOLW\" %HKDYLRU *HQHWLFV /H5R\ 5 5R\ 0 $ t %ULOH\ 6 0 f 6RFLDO SUHIHUHQFHV LQ PLFH LQIOXHQFHG E\ DPELHQW VWLPXOL LQ WKH JHQHUDO UHDULQJ HQYLURQPHQW $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU /HVWHU / / t *RU]DOND % % f (IIHFW RI QRYHO DQG IDPLOLDU PDWLQJ SDUWQHUV RQ WKH GXUDWLRQ RI VH[XDO UHFHSWLYLW\ LQ WKH IHPDOH KDPVWHU %HKDYLRUDO DQG 1HXUDO %LRORJ\ /RPEDUGL 5 t 9DQGHQEHUJK f 3KHURPRQDOO\ LQGXFHG VH[XDO PDWXUDWLRQ LQ IHPDOHV 5HJXODWLRQ E\ WKH VRFLDO HQYLURQPHQW RI WKH PDOH 6FLHQFH /RWW ) f ,QWUDVSHFLILF YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH VRFLDO V\VWHPV RI ZLOG YHUWHEUDWHV %HKDYLRXU /\GHOO t 'RW\ 5 / f 0DOH UDW RGRU SUHIHUHQFHV IRU IHPDOH XULQH DV D IXQFWLRQ RI VH[XDO H[SHULHQFH XULQH DJH DQG XULQH VRXUFH +RUPRQHV DQG %HKDYLRU 0DUNRZ 7 $ 4XDLG 0 t .HUU 6 f 0DOH PDWLQJ H[SHULHQFH DQG FRPSHWLWLYH FRXUWVKLS VXFFHVV LQ 'URVRSKLOD PHODQRJDVWHU 1DWXUH

PAGE 145

0DUXQLDN $ 'HVMDUGLQV & t %URQVRQ ) + f 'RPLQDQWVXERUGLQDWH UHODWLRQVKLSV LQ FDVWUDWHG PDOH PLFH EHDULQJ WHVWRVWHURQH LPSODQWV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI 3K\VLRORJ\ 0DWWKHZV 0 t $GOHU 1 7 f )DFLOLWDWLYH DQG LQKLELWRU\ LQIOXHQFHV RI UHSURGXFWLYH EHKDYLRU RQ VSHUP WUDQVSRUW LQ UDWV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 0DWWKHZV 0 -U t $GOHU 1 7 f 6\VWHPDWLF LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLS RI PDWLQJ YDJLQDO SOXJ SRVLWLRQ DQG VSHUP WUDQVSRUW LQ WKH UDW 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU 0F&DUW\ 5 t 6RXWKZLFN & + f &URVVVSHFLHV IRVWHULQJ (IIHFWV RQ WKH ROIDFWRU\ SUHIHUHQFH RI 2QYFKRPYV WRUULGXV DQG 3HURPYVFXV OHXFRSXV %HKDYLRUDO %LRORJ\ 0F'RQDOG / t )RUVOXQG / f 7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI VRFLDO SUHIHUHQFHV LQ WKH YROHV 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXV DQG 0LFURWXV FDQLFDXGXV (IIHFWV RI FURVVIRVWHULQJ %HKDYLRUDO %LRORJ\ 0F*XLUH % t 1RYDN 0 f $ FRPSDULVRQ RI PDWHUQDO EHKDYLRXU LQ WKH PHDGRZ YROH 0LFURWXV SHQQVYOYDQLFXVf SUDLULH YROH 0 RFKURJDVWHUf DQG SLQH YROH 0 SLQHWRUXPf $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU 0F*XLUH % t 1RYDN 0 f 7KH HIIHFWV RI FURVV IRVWHULQJ RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI VRFLDO SUHIHUHQFHV LQ PHDGRZ YROHV 0LFURWXV SHQQVYOYDQLFXVf %HKDYLRUDO DQG 1HXUDO %LRORJ\ 0HUN[ f (IIHFW RI FDVWUDWLRQ DQG VXEVHTXHQW VXEVWLWXWLRQ ZLWK WHVWRVWHURQH GLK\GURWHVWRVWHURQH DQG RHVWUDGLRO RQ VH[XDO SUHIHUHQFH EHKDYLRXU LQ WKH PDOH UDW %HKDYLRXUDO %UDLQ 5HVHDUFK 0HUN[ 6ORE $ t YDQ GHU :HUII 7HQ %RVFK f 9DJLQDO EDFWHULDO IORUD SDUWLDOO\ GHWHUPLQHV VH[XDO DWWUDFWLYLW\ RI IHPDOH UDWV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU 0LOOHU & $ t 9RRUKHHV / f 2OIDFWLRQ DV D FXH IRU PDWH VHOHFWLRQ LQ PDOH 3HURPYVFXV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 3HQQV\OYDQLD $FDGHP\ RI 6FLHQFHV >$EVWUDFW@ 0RRUH 5 ( f 2OIDFWRU\ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ DV DQ LVRODWLQJ PHFKDQLVP EHWZHHQ 3HURPYVFXV PDQLFXODWXV

PAGE 146

DQG 3HURPYVFXV SROLRQRWXV $PHULFDQ 0LGODQG 1DWXUDOLVW 0XUSK\ 0 5 f (IIHFWV RI IHPDOH KDPVWHU YDJLQDO GLVFKDUJH RQ WKH EHKDYLRU RI PDOH KDPVWHUV %HKDYLRUDO %LRORJ\ 0XUSK\ 0 5 f ,QWUDVSHFLILF VH[XDO SUHIHUHQFHV RI IHPDOH KDPVWHUV -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 0XUSK\ 0 5 f 6H[XDO SUHIHUHQFHV RI PDOH KDPVWHUV ,PSRUWDQFH RI SUHZHDQLQJ DQG DGXOW H[SHULHQFH YDJLQDO VHFUHWLRQ DQG ROIDFWRU\ RU YRPHURQDVDO VHQVDWLRQ %HKDYLRUDO DQG 1HXUDO %LRORJ\ 1DNDWVXUX t .UDPHU / f ,V VSHUP FKHDS" /LPLWHG PDOH IHUWLOLW\ DQG IHPDOH FKRLFH LQ WKH OHPRQ WHWUD 3LVFHV &KDUDFLGDHf 6FLHQFH 1HZPDQ 6 t +DOSLQ = 7 f ,QGLYLGXDO RGRXUV DQG PDWH UHFRJQLWLRQ LQ WKH SUDLULH YROH 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU 1LMKROW : : f 7KH HIIHFW RI PDWLQJ DQG WKH SUHVHQFH RI WKH PDOH DPEURVLD EHHWOH 7UYSRGHQGURQ OLQHDWXP RQ VHFRQGDU\ DWWUDFWLRQ &DQDGLDQ (QWRPRORJLVW 2n'RQDOG 3 f 6H[XDO VHOHFWLRQ E\ IHPDOH FKRLFH ,Q 3 %DWHVRQ (Gf 0DWH FKRLFH SS f &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 2OLYHUDV t 1RYDN 0 f $ FRPSDULVRQ RI SDWHUQDO EHKDYLRXU LQ WKH PHDGRZ YROH 0LFURWXV SHQQVYOYDQLFXV WKH SLQH YROH 0 SLQHWRUXP DQG WKH SUDLULH YROH 0 RFKURJDVWHU $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU 2VWIHOG 5 6 f /LPLWLQJ UHVRXUFHV DQG WHUULWRULDOLW\ LQ PLFURWLQH URGHQWV $PHULFDQ 1DWXUDOLVW 3DUNHU $ f 6SHUP FRPSHWLWLRQ DQG LWV HYROXWLRQDU\ FRQVHTXHQFHV LQ WKH LQVHFWV %LRORJLFDO 5HYLHZV 3DUNHU $ f 0DWH TXDOLW\ DQG PDWLQJ GHFLVLRQV ,Q 3 %DWHVRQ (Gf 0DWH FKRLFH SS f &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 3DUPLJLDQL 6 %UXQRQL 9 t 3DVTXDOL $ f %HKDYLRXUDO LQIOXHQFHV RI GRPLQDQW LVRODWHG DQG

PAGE 147

VXERUGLQDWHG PDOH PLFH RQ IHPDOH VRFLRVH[XDO SUHIHUHQFHV %ROOHWWLQR GL =RRORJD 3DUWULGJH / t +DOOLGD\ 7 f 0DWLQJ SDWWHUQV DQG PDWH FKRLFH ,Q 5 .UHEV t 1 % 'DYLHV (GVf %HKDYLRXUDO HFRORJ\ $Q HYROXWLRQDU\ DSSURDFK QG (G SS f 6LQDXHU $VVRFLDWHV 6XQGHUODQG 0$ 3HSHONR : ( t &OHJJ 0 7 f 6WXGLHV RI PDWLQJ EHKDYLRXU DQG VRPH IDFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ WKH VH[XDO UHVSRQVH LQ WKH PDOH VKHHS 2YLV DULHV $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU  3IDII t 3IDIIPDQQ & f %HKDYLRUDO DQG HOHFWURSK\VLRORJLFDO UHVSRQVHV RI PDOH UDWV WR IHPDOH UDW XULQH RGRUV ,Q & 3IDIIPDQQ (Gf 2OIDFWLRQ DQG WDVWH ,,, 1HZ
PAGE 148

3RUWHU 5 + 'HQL 5 t 'RDQH + 0 f 5HVSRQVHV RI $FRPYV FDKLULQXV SXSV WR FKHPLFDO FXHV SURGXFHG E\ D IRVWHU VSHFLHV %HKDYLRUDO %LRORJ\ 3RUWHU 5 + t 'RDQH + 0 f 5HVSRQVHV RI VSLQ\ PRXVH ZHDQOLQJV WR FRQVSHFLILF FKHPLFDO FXHV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU 3UDWHU t 5LJOH\ / f 5HFRJQLWLRQ DQG SUHIHUHQFH RI PDOH YROHV E\ SUHJQDQW IHPDOH YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURDDVWHU 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 3HQQV\OYDQLD $FDGHP\ RI 6FLHQFHV 3UHWRULXV 3 6 f 0DWLQJ EHKDYLRXU RI UDPV -RXUQDO RI 6RXWK $IULFDQ 9HWHULQDU\ 0HGLFDO $VVRFLDWLRQ 4XDGDJQR 0 t %DQNV ( 0 f 7KH HIIHFW RI UHFLSURFDO FURVV IRVWHULQJ RQ WKH EHKDYLRU RI WZR VSHFLHV RI URGHQWV 0XV PXVFXOXV DQG %DLRPYV WDYORUL DWHU $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU 5LFKPRQG 0 t 6WHKQ 5 f 2OIDFWLRQ DQG UHSURGXFWLYH EHKDYLRU LQ PLFURWLQH URGHQWV ,Q 5 / 'RW\ (Gf 0DPPDOLDQ ROIDFWLRQ UHSURGXFWLYH SURFHVVHV DQG EHKDYLRU SS f 1HZ
PAGE 149

YROHV 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXVf 'RFWRUDO GLVVHUWDWLRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD f 6DZUH\ t 'HZVEXU\ $ f 6H[XDO H[SHULHQFH LV LPSRUWDQW IRU KHWHURVH[XDO RGRU SUHIHUHQFH LQ PDOH EXW QRW IHPDOH PRQWDQH YROHV 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXVf 3RVWHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH PHHWLQJ RI WKH $QLPDO %HKDYLRU 6RFLHW\ :LOOLDPVWRZQ 0$ 6FKDGOHU 0 + f 0DOH VLEOLQJV LQKLELW UHSURGXFWLYH DFWLYLW\ LQ IHPDOH SLQH YROHV 0LFURWXV SLQHWRUXP %LRORJ\ RI 5HSURGXFWLRQ 6FKZDJPH\HU 3 / f 7KH %UXFH HIIHFW $Q HYDOXDWLRQ RI PDOHIHPDOH DGYDQWDJHV $PHULFDQ 1DWXUDOLVW 6FRWW : t 3IDII : f %HKDYLRUDO DQG HOHFWRSK\VLRORJLFDO UHVSRQVHV RI IHPDOH PLFH WR PDOH XULQH RGRUV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU 6HDUF\ : $ t $QGHUVVRQ 0 f 6H[XDO VHOHFWLRQ DQG WKH HYROXWLRQ RI VRQJ $QQXDO 5HYLHZ RI (FRORJ\ DQG 6YVWHPDWLFV 6KDSLUR / ( f %HKDYLRU QHXURDQDWRP\ DQG VRFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ WZR VSHFLHV RI YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU DQG 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXVf 'RFWRUDO GLVVHUWDWLRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD f 'LVVHUWDWLRQ $EVWUDFWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6KDSLUR / ( $XVWLQ :DUG 6 ( t 'HZVEXU\ $ f )DPLOLDULW\ DQG IHPDOH PDWH FKRLFH LQ WZR VSHFLHV RI YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU DQG 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXVf $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU 6KDSLUR / ( t 'HZVEXU\ $ f 0DOH GRPLQDQFH IHPDOH FKRLFH DQG PDOH FRSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU LQ WZR VSHFLHV RI YROHV 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU DQG 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXVf %HKDYLRUDO (FRORJ\ DQG 6RFLRELRORJ\ 6PLWK 0 + f %HKDYLRUDO GLVFULPLQDWLRQ VKRZQ E\ DOORSDWULF DQG V\PSDWULF PDOHV RI 3HURPYVFXV HUHPLFXV DQG 3HURPYVFXV FDOLIRUQLFXV EHWZHHQ IHPDOHV RI WKH VDPH WZR VSHFLHV (YROXWLRQ 6WHKQ 5 $ t -DQQHWW ) -U f 0DOHLQGXFHG DERUWLRQ LQ YDULRXV PLFURWLQH URGHQWV -RXUQDO RI 0DPPDORJ\ 6WHKQ 5 $ t 5LFKPRQG 0 ( f 0DOHLQGXFHG SUHJQDQF\ WHUPLQDWLRQ LQ WKH SUDLULH YROH 0LFURWXV RFKURJDVWHU 6FLHQFH

PAGE 150

6WHUQ f 5HVSRQVHV RI PDOH UDWV WR VH[ RGRUV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU 6WRGGDUW 0 f 7KH FRPSDUDWLYH UHVSRQVHV RI PLFH DQG YROHV WR FRQVSHFLILF DQG KHWHURVSHFLILF RGRUV LQ WKH ILHOG D OHVVRQ LQ VRFLDO EHKDYLRU ,Q 'XYDO 0XOOHU6FKZDU]H t 5 0 6LOYHUVWHLQ (GVf &KHPLFDO VLJQDOV LQ YHUWHEUDWHV 9RO (FRORJ\ HYROXWLRQ DQG FRPSDUDWLYH ELRORJ\ SS f 1HZ
PAGE 151

7RPSNLQV / t +DOO & f 7KH GLIIHUHQW HIIHFWV RQ FRXUWVKLS RI YRODWLOH FRPSRXQGV IURP PDWHG DQG YLUJLQ 'URVRSKLOD IHPDOHV -RXUQDO RI ,QVHFW 3K\VLRORJ\ 7RQHU 3 t $GOHU 1 7 f 3RWHQF\ RI UDW HMDFXODWLRQV YDULHV ZLWK WKHLU RUGHU DQG ZLWK PDOH DJH 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU 9HKUHQFDPS 6 / t %UDGEXU\ : f 0DWLQJ V\VWHPV DQG HFRORJ\ ,Q 5 .UHEV t 1 % 'DYLHV (GVf %HKDYLRXUDO HFRORJ\ $Q HYROXWLRQDU\ DSSURDFK QG (G SS f 6LQDXHU $VVRFLDWHV 6XQGHUODQG 0$ :HEVWHU :LOOLDPV 0 + t 'HZVEXU\ $ f )HPDOH UHJXODWLRQ DQG FKRLFH LQ WKH FRSXODWRU\ EHKDYLRU RI PRQWDQH YROHV 0LFURWXV PRQWDQXVf -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ :KLWH 3 )LVFKHU 5 % t 0HXQLHU ) Df 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ RI PDOH VRFLDO VWDWXV E\ IHPDOH KDPVWHUV 3V\FKRORJLFDO 5HSRUWV :KLWH 3 )LVFKHU 5 % t 0HXQLHU ) Ef 7KH DELOLW\ RI IHPDOHV WR SUHGLFW PDOH VWDWXV YLD XULQDU\ RGRUV +RUPRQHV DQG %HKDYLRU :KLWH 3 )LVFKHU 5 % t 0HXQLHU ) f )HPDOH GLVFULPLQDWLRQ RI PDOH GRPLQDQFH E\ XULQH RGRU FXHV LQ KDPVWHUV 3K\VLRORJ\ t %HKDYLRU :LFNOHU : t 6HLEW 8 f 0RQRJDP\ $Q DPELJXRXV FRQFHSW ,Q 3 %DWHVRQ (Gf 0DWH FKRLFH SS f &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV :LNOXQG & t )RUVEHUJ f &RXUWVKLS DQG PDOH GLVFULPLQDWLRQ EHWZHHQ YLUJLQ DQG PDWHG IHPDOHV LQ WKH RUDQJH WLS EXWWHUIO\ $QWKRFKDULV FDUGDPLQHV $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU :LQQ % ( t 9HVWDO % 0 f .LQ UHFRJQLWLRQ DQG FKRLFH RI PDOHV E\ ZLOG IHPDOH KRXVH PLFH 0XV PXVFXOXVf -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ :LWWHQEHUJHU ) t 7LOVRQ 5 / f 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI PRQRJDP\ +\SRWKHVHV DQG HYLGHQFH $QQXDO 5HYLHZ RI (FRORJ\ DQG 6\VWHPDWLFV

PAGE 152

:ROII t /XQG\ f ,QWUDIDPLOLDO GLVSHUVLRQ SDWWHUQV LQ ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH 3HURPYVFXV OHXFRSXV %HKDYLRUDO (FRORJ\ DQG 6RFLRELRORJ\ :ROII /XQG\ t %DFFXV 5 f 'LVSHUVDO LQEUHHGLQJ DYRLGDQFH DQG UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV LQ ZKLWHIRRWHG PLFH $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU
PAGE 153

%,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ 7KH DXWKRU -RKQ 3LHUFH -U ZDV ERUQ LQ 3HQQV\OYDQLD RQ -DQXDU\ +H ZDV UDLVHG LQ 1RUULVWRZQ 3HQQV\OYDQLD DQG ZDV IRUWXQDWH WR DWWHQG H[FHOOHQW ORFDO VFKRROV +LV EDFKHORUnV GHJUHH LQ SV\FKRORJ\ ZDV UHFHLYHG IURP 6DLQW -RVHSKnV 8QLYHUVLW\ LQ 3KLODGHOSKLD LQ +H DWWHQGHG JUDGXDWH VFKRRO DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 1HYDGD 5HQR DQG ZDV DWWUDFWHG WR WKH ILHOG RI FRPSDUDWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ E\ 'U %HDWUL[ 7 *DUGQHU +H UHFHLYHG KLV 0DVWHU RI $UWV GHJUHH LQ SV\FKRORJ\ DW 815 LQ XQGHU WKH JXLGDQFH RI 'U :LOODUG ) 'D\ 6LQFH KH KDV EHHQ D JUDGXDWH VWXGHQW LQ WKH ODERUDWRU\ RI 'U 'RQDOG $ 'HZVEXU\ DQG KDV SXEOLVKHG VHYHUDO VFLHQWLILF SDSHUV

PAGE 154

, FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHTWHA RI? 'S-WRLf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a -DQH %URFNPDUQ7 3URIHVVRU RI =RRORJ\ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ V c/t 6HUJLR03HOOLV $VVLVWDQW 5HVHDUFK 6FLHQWLVW RI 3V\FKRORJ\

PAGE 155

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

PAGE 156

81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$


xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID EP3QD8G6F_ESWUVP INGEST_TIME 2017-07-12T20:57:31Z PACKAGE AA00003353_00001
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES