Citation
Interactions of resistant corn cultivars, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) and Archytas marmoratus (Townsend)

Material Information

Title:
Interactions of resistant corn cultivars, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) and Archytas marmoratus (Townsend)
Creator:
Christian-Meier, Maude F., 1956-
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
xiv, 144 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Armyworms ( jstor )
Corn ( jstor )
Diet ( jstor )
Insects ( jstor )
Instars ( jstor )
Larvae ( jstor )
Parasitism ( jstor )
Parasitoids ( jstor )
Pests ( jstor )
Silk ( jstor )
Genre:
bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1990.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 126-135).
General Note:
Typescript.
General Note:
Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Maude F. Christian-Meier.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
Copyright [name of dissertation author]. Permission granted to the University of Florida to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
Resource Identifier:
001603295 ( ALEPH )
AHM7545 ( NOTIS )
23245332 ( OCLC )

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:


Full Text










INTERACTIONS OF RESISTANT CORN CULTIVARS,
SPODOPTERA FRUGIPERDA (J.E. SMITH) AND
ARCHYTAS MARMORATUS (TOWNSEND)


















By

MADE F. CHRISTIAN-MEIER


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


UNIVERSITY OF FLO."10A UarAkS


1990













ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


I gratefully acknowledge all members of my supervisory

committee for their guidance, advice, and encouragement:

Drs. Carl Barfield, Gary R. Buckingham, B.R. Wiseman, Frank

Slansky, Dale Habeck and Rachel Shireman. Their support has

enabled me to carry out this research. They were always

prepared to take time out of their ever busy schedules to

assist in various aspects of my academic endeavors.

Dr. Barfield gave me invaluable academic advisement and

was helpful in suggesting sources of financial aid. I

benefited from working with Dr. Buckingham at the biological

control laboratory; it was a professional experience that

will serve me well in my career. Dr. Wiseman was the

inspiration behind my pursuit of a host plant resistance

project. Dr. Slansky was responsible for my interest in

insect nutritional ecology. Dr. Shireman and Dr. Habeck

represent much of what I hope to be. I have been fortunate

in having a committee that has shown genuine concern for my

wellbeing, as well as being a source of enlightenment.

I wish to acknowledge the American Association of

University Women for providing a grant that made this

research a reality. I would like to thank Dr. Strayer for







his continual support. Dr. Yu was kind enough to let me use

his laboratory for all the detoxication enzyme work and

reviewed the results.

My sincere gratitude goes to Dr. Sandra Davis, a good

friend and more, and Christine Bennett, Paul Ruppert, Dr.

Lim Nong, May Buckingham and Glinda Burnett for being all

they are. I would also like to thank my fellow graduate

student friends for all we have learned from each other.

Special thanks go to my mother Grace Christian, my

husband Henry Meier and children Fernanda, Jack, Anthea and

Rachel for their personal sacrifice and love. Finally, I

wish to thank all the good friends I made in Gainesville,

Florida, for enriching my life in Gainesville.


iii














TABLE OF CONTENTS



Page



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................... ....................ii

LIST OF TABLES .......................................vi

LIST OF FIGURES.... .................................viii

ABSTRACT.................................................xi

CHAPTER

I. INTRODUCTION..... ............................1

Biology and Life Cycle of the Fall Armyworm...3
Host Plant Resistance.........................6
Chemical Control.............................11
Tri-trophic Interactions.....................13

II. CONSUMPTION, DEVELOPMENT AND FECUNDITY OF
FAW ON DIETS CONTAINING SILKS OF THE
RESISTANT CORN CULTIVAR IZAPALOTE
CHICO' ........................................ 16

Introduction................................. 16
Materials and Methods.........................18
Results and Discussion.......................23
General Discussion...........................58

III. FIELD PERFORMANCE OF ARCHYTAS MARMORATUS
AGAINST FALL ARMYWORM SPODOPTERA FRUGIPERDA
ON STOWELL'S EVERGREEN AND MpSWCB-4.......... 61

Introduction................................. 61
Materials and Methods......................... 68
Results and Discussion.......................71
















IV. CONSUMPTION DEVELOPMENT AND FECUNDITY OF
FALL ARMYWORM ON STOWELL'S EVERGREEN AND
MpSWCB-4 AS AFFECTED BY ARCHYTAS
MARMORATUS................................... 85

Introduction................................85
Materials and Methods........................86
Results and Discussion........................ 90

V. EFFECT OF RESISTANT AND SUSCEPTIBLE CORN
CULTIVARS ON MICROSOMAL MONOOXYGENASES AND
INSECTICIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF THE FALL
ARMYWORM......................................... 103

Description of Microsomal Monooxygenases.... 103
Materials and Methods.......................109
Results and Discussion......................114

VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS.....................121

REFERENCES CITED.....................................126

APPENDIX................................................136

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH...................................143













LIST OF TABLES


Table Page



1. Developmental parameters of FAW 5th and
6th larval instars feeding on diets con-
taining silks of a resistant corn cultivar
Zapalote Chico and a susceptible cultivar
Stowell's Evergreen. 24

2. Fifth instar till pupation feeding effi-
ciencies, and relative consumption and
growths rates for fall armyworm larvae
reared on diets containing silks of a
resistant corn cultivar Zapalote Chico (R)
and a susceptible corn cultivar Stowell's
Evergreen (S). 25

3. Developmental parameters (Consumption,
growth and biomass)of 6th instar fall
armyworm larvae feeding on diets contain-
ing silks of a resistant corn cultivar
Zapalote Chico and a susceptible corn cul-
tivar Stowell's Evergreen. (24hrs). 56

4. Rates of consumption, rates of growth,
and efficiency of conversion of ingested
food for 6th instar FAW larvae reared
on diets containing silks of resistant
corn cultivar Zapalote Chico and a
susceptible corn cultivar Stowell's
Evergreen. (24 hrs). 57

5. Parasites reared from fall armyworm larvae
collected in Tifton, Georgia, June 1988 and
June 1989. 72













6. Developmental parameters of fall armyworm
6th instar larvae reared on leaves of a
susceptible corn cultivar (Stowell's Ever-
green) and a resistant cultivar (MpSWCB-4). 91

7. Developmental parameters of fall armyworm
6th instar larvae reared on leaves of a
susceptible corn cultivar (Stowell's Ever-
green) and a resistant cultivar MpSWCB-4. 92

8. Effect of parasitism by A. marmoratus on
FAW larvae. Consumption, growth and
biomass parameters. 99

9. Effect of parasitism by A. marmoratus on
last instar fall armyworm feeding
efficiencies, consumption and growth rates. 100

10. Aldrin epoxidase activities of fall
armyworm Larvae fed various diets of
resistant and susceptible corn cultivar
leaves. 115

11. Microsomal oxidase activities of fall
armyworm larvae fed a meridic diet
containing various concentrations of
silks of a resistant corn cultivar
(Zapalote Chico) and a susceptible
corn cultivar (Stowell's Evergreen). 116

12. Toxicity of insecticides applied topically
to the Fall armyworm reared on a suscep-
tible and resistant corn cultivars. 118

A-1. Parameters for determination of performance
values. 136

A-2. Larval duration and mortality of fall
armyworm reared on diets containing silks
of a resistant corn cultivar Zapalote Chico
and a susceptible corn cultivar Stowell's
Evergreen. 137

A-3. Mean number of eggs laid by fall armyworm
females reared on a pinto bean check diet
(CK) and diets containing silks of


vii













Stowell's Evergreen corn (SEG) a susceptible
corn cultivar, and Zapalote Chico corn a
resistant corn cultivar. 138

A-4. Mean percentage parasitization of fall
armyworm larvae on whorl stage resistant
corn (MpSWCB-4) and susceptible corn
(Stowell's Evergreen) by Archytas marmoratus
in Tifton Georgia. 139

A-5. Mean percentage parasitization of fall
armyworm larvae on whorl stage resistant
corn (MpSWCB-4) and susceptible corn
(Stowell's Evergreen) by Ophion flavidus
in Tifton Georgia. 140

A-6. Mean percentage parasitization of fall
armyworm larvae on whorl stage resistant
corn (MpSWCB-4) and susceptible corn
(Stowell's Evergreen) by other parasites
and total percentage parasitization in
Tifton Georgia. 114

A-7. Mean pupal weights and eggs laid by fall
armyworm reared on whorl stage resistant
(MpSWCB-4) and susceptible (Stowell's
Evergreeen) corn. 142


viii













LIST OF FIGURES


Figure _Pae

1. Larval duration for fall armyworm reared on
a check (CK) pinto bean diet, and diets
containing silks of Stowell's Evergreen
corn (SEG), a susceptible cultivar, and
Zapalote Chico corn (ZC), a resistant cul-
tivar. ZC5, ZC10, and ZC20 = 5 g, 10 g,
and 20 g of ZC silk in 300 ml of check
diet respectively. 29

2. Developmental time for fall armyworm larval
instars 5 to pupation, on diets containing
silks of Stowell's Evergreen corn (SEG), a
susceptible cultivar, and Zapalote Chico
corn (ZC), a resistant cultivar. ZC5, ZC10
and ZC20 = 5 g, 10 g, and 20 g of ZC silk
in 300 ml of check diet respectively. 31

3. Fresh weights (mg) of newly molted fall
armyworm 5th instar larvae reared on a
check (CK) pinto bean diet, and diets con-
taining silks of Stowell's Evergreen corn
(SEG),a susceptible cultivar, and Zapalote
Chico corn (ZC), a resistant cultivar.
ZC5, ZC10, ZC20 = 5 g, 10 g, 20 g of ZC
silk in 300 ml of check diet respectively. 33

4. Percent dry weight of 5th instar fall
armyworm larvae reared on a check (CK)
pinto bean diet, and diets containing silks
of Stowell's Evergreen corn (SEG), suscep-
tible cultivar, and Zapalote Chico corn
(ZC), a resistant cultivar. ZC5, ZC10,
and ZC20 = 5 g, 10 g, and 20 g of ZC silk
in 300 ml of check diet respectively. 35


5. Pupal fresh weights of fall armyworm
reared on a pinto bean diet (CK)
and diets containing silks of Stowell's
Evergreen corn (SEG), a susceptible
cultivar, and Zapalote Chico corn (ZC),
a resistant cultivar. ZC5, ZC10, and













ZC20 = 5 g, 10 g, and 20 g of ZC silk
in 300 ml of check diet respectively. 39

6. Pupal dry weights of fall armyworm reared
on a meridic pinto bean diet (ck), and
diets containing silks of Stowell's
Evergreen corn (SEG), a susceptible corn,
(S) and Zapalote Chico corn (ZC), a
resistant cultivar. ZC5, ZC10, and ZC20
= 5 g, 10 g, and 20 g of ZC silk in 300
ml of check diet respectively. 41

7. Percentage dry weight of fall armyworm
reared on a pinto bean check diets con-
taining silks of Stowell's Evergreen (S)
and Zapalote Chico (R) corn. ZC5, ZC10,
and ZC20 = 5 g, 10 g and 20 g of ZC silk
in 300 ml of check diet respectively. 43

8. Mean number of eggs laid by fall armyworm
females reared on a pinto bean check diet
(CK) and diets containing silks of
Stowell's Evergreen corn (SEG) a suscep-
tible cultivar, and Zapalote Chico corn
(ZC) a resistant cultivar. ZC5, ZC10,
and ZC20 = 5 g, 10 g and 20 g of ZC silk
in 300 ml of check diet respectively. 45

9. Calibration curve for 5th instar fall
armyworm feeding on a pinto bean check
diet. Estimated regression line for
relative growth rate (RGR) against
relative consumption rate (RCR) for 24
hour feeding. 48

10. Calibration curve for fall armyworm
feeding on a meridic diet, with plots of
growth rates against consumption rates
for larvae feeding on diets containing
5 g each of silks of Stowell's Evergreen
and Zapalote Chico corn. 50


11. Calibration curve for FAW feeding on a
meridic diet, with plots of growth rates
against consumption rates for larvae feed-







ing on diets containing 10 g and 20 g of
Zapalote Chico corn silks. 53

12. Calibration curve for fall armyworm feed-
ing on a pinto bean check diet, with
plots of growth rates (RGR)m against con-
sumption rate (RCR) for larvae feeding on
test diets containing silks of resistant
and susceptible corn cultivars. (5 g of
Stowell's Evergreen corn silk and 5 g, 10
g, and 20 g of Zapalote Chico corn silks). 55

13. The kinds of interactions, direct and
indirect, in a typical food web, showing
the relationships between intrinsic and
extrinsic defense of plants and the trade-
offs between them. +, -, 0 indicate
positive, negative or noeffects, the plant
may impact on the herbivore-natural
enemy relationship. From Price (1986). 65

14. Percentage parasitization by artificially
applied Archytas mormoratus, Ophion
flavidus and other parasities, of fall
armyworm collected from a susceptible
corn cultivar, Stowell's evergreen and a
resistant corn cultivar MpSWCB-4 in Tifton,
Georgia. 76

15. Percentages of total parasitization of
FAW collected from Stowell's Evergreen
(S) and MpSWCB-4 (R) corn in Tifton,
Georgia, 1988. 78

16. Percentage parasitization of fall armyworm
collected from Stowell's Evergreen (S)
and MpSWCB-4 (R) corn plots in Tifton,
Georgia, 1989. 80

17. Percentages of total parasitization of
fall armyworm larvae collected from
Stowell's Evergreen (susceptible) corn and
MpSWCB-4 (resistant) corn in Tifton,
Georgia, 1989. 82


18. Fresh weight and dry weight of pupae of
fall armyworm reared on leaves of
Stowell's Evergreen corn (susceptible
cultivar) and MpSWCB-4 corn (resistant
cultivar). 94

19. Mean number of eggs laid by fall armyworm







females reared on leaves of Stowell's
Evergreen corn (susceptible cultivar)
and MpSWCB-4 corn (resistant cultivar). 96

20. Fresh weights of 6th instar fall armyworm
larvae parasitized by Archytas marmoratus,
and unparasitized larvae. 98

21. Schematic representation of the cytochrome
P-450-dependent microsomal MFO system. 105


xii













Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

INTERACTIONS OF RESISTANT CORN CULTIVARS, SPODOPTERA
FRUGIPERDA (J.E. SMITH) AND ARCHYTAS MARMORATUS (TOWNSEND)

By

MADE CHRISTIAN-MEIER

August 1990

Chairperson: Carl S. Barfield
Cochairperson: Gary R. Buckingham
Major Department: Entomology and Nematology

Measures of consumption, development and fecundity of

Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) were obtained on diets

containing silks of the resistant corn cultivar 'Zapalote

Chico'. Field performance of Archytas marmoratus Townsend

against S. frugiperda in whorls of Stowell's Evergreen

(susceptible corn cultivar) and MpSWCB-4 (resistant corn

cultivar) was investigated. Effects of resistant and

susceptible corn cultivars on the detoxication enzyme aldrin

epoxidase and insecticide susceptibility of S. frugiperda to

three classes of insecticides were determined.

Diets containing Z. Chico corn silks inhibited growth

of S. frugiperda larvae. Pupal weight and fecundity were

reduced as Z. Chico silk content of the diet was increased.

There was a significant increase in larval developmental


xiii










time from 15 days to 33 days on the control diet and diet

containing 20 g of Z. Chico silks, respectively.

Present investigations represent an attempt to study

three trophic levels in an agricultural system with a

resistant corn cultivar as the producer, S. frugiperda the

primary consumer, and A. marmoratus the secondary consumer.

Compatibility of a parasitoid as a control method, in

combination with resistant varieties, may be erroneously

assumed. The host diet may have a potentially deleterious

effect on a parasitoid's performance. Performance of A.

marmoratus was not affected adversely by S. frugiperda

feeding on the resistant corn cultivar. Detoxication enzyme

levels increased slightly when larvae were reared on MpSWCB-

4, compared to those reared on Stowell's Evergreen. Z.

Chico silk diets caused inhibition of the detoxication

enzyme. Relative potency of three insecticide classes

toward S. frugiperda was pyrethroid > carbamate >

organophosphate. S. frugiperda reared on the susceptible

cultivar were more susceptible to methomyl and bifenthrin,

with LD50's of 2.39 ug/g larva and 0.45 ug/g larva,

respectively, than larvae reared on MpSWCB-4 with LD50's of

4.19 ug/g larva and 1.29 ug/g larva, respectively. The

organophosphate chlorpyrifos was more toxic to larvae reared

on MpSWCB-4 than larvae reared on Stowell's Evergreen.


xiv













This work is dedicated to my parents Dr. and Mrs. F.
Christian Sr., my brothers, Dr. F. Christian Jr. and E.
Christian, my nieces and nephews, my husband Henry Meier, my
children Fernanda, Jack, Anthea and Rachel.














CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION


Pest control is recognized as an integral
part of modern agriculture, and necessarily
requires the discovery of new information and
technology to address evolving pest problems. The
fervor for routine applications of pesticides has
subsided because of socio-environmental and,
recently, economic concerns. These concerns have
brought about renewed interest and greater in-
depth research on insect resistance in plants and
in biological control. While it is generally
conceded that these two pest control methods are
compatible and among the most important integrated
pest management tactics, most of the research in
these two fields has been done independently of
the other. (Verbatim from the preface, Boethel
and Eikenbary 1986)


The above statement holds true for the management of

the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith)

[Lepidoptera: Noctuidae], on corn, Zea mays (L.), in the

United States. The more that is understood about the pest

regarding its ecology, biology, natural enemies,

biochemistry etc., the better the chance of knowing the

ramifications of a control method and successfully

controlling the pest. The purpose of this project was to

investigate some insect-plant interactions among FAW and two

resistant cultivars of corn, Zapalote Chico (ZC) and MpSWCB-

4. Plant resistance to FAW was reviewed by Wiseman and

Davis (1979). Since then, sources of resistance to FAW have






2

been found in Zapalote Chico and MpSWCB-4 corn. An attempt

was made in the present study to evaluate the compatibility

of the resistant cultivar MpSWCB-4 and a FAW natural enemy,

Archytas marmoratus (Townsend) [Diptera: Tachinidae], in

multitactic control of FAW. The effect of FAW feeding on

the resistant corn cultivars ZC and MpSWCB-4 and on a

detoxification enzyme and subsequent insecticide

susceptibility of FAW was studied.

Integrated pest management (IPM) principles serve as

guidelines in efforts to manage insect pests (see Barfield

and O'Neil 1984; Bottrell 1979).

1. POTENTIALLY HARMFUL SPECIES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST AT TOLERABLE LEVELS OF ABUNDANCE.

The objective of IPM is to lower pest populations

below economically important levels; eradication

is not the objective.

2. THE ECOSYSTEM IS THE MANAGEMENT UNIT.

The boundaries of and the couplings among the

components of the system must be identified before

design and implementation of an IPM program.

3. THE USE OF NATURAL ENEMIES IS MAXIMIZED.

An understanding of how natural enemies work in

the system must be acquired so that optimal use

can be made of their impact on target pest

populations.

4. ANY CONTROL PROCEDURE MAY PRODUCE
UNEXPECTED AND UNDESIRABLE CONSEQUENCES.

An ecologically based management strategy is less






3

likely to result in "negative effects" within the

system being managed.

5. AN INTERDISCIPLINARY SYSTEMS APPROACH IS
ESSENTIAL.

The assumption is that information

collected by various scientists can and will be

integrated. (1-5 Verbatim from Barfield and

O'Neil 1984, p. 43-45)


The present project was undertaken as an attempt to

make a contribution to the management of FAW in corn, one of

the world's most widely distributed food plants and the most

important crop in the United States.



The Fall Armyworm

The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E.

Smith), is one of the most important pests of corn in the

United States. It is polyphagous, mobile, and annually

attacks corn and other crops, especially gramineous species,

throughout the southeastern United States. FAW populations

can be found during the entire year in south Florida and

Texas; this pest migrates from these areas into uninfested

regions farther north each spring (Rabb and Kennedy 1979).

Luginbill (1928) lists more than 60 host plant species for

FAW, but states that the larvae would probably confine their

feeding to corn (Zea mays L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor

(L.)), and grasses such as Bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon

(L.)) if those plants were available. Corn presently is






4
implicated (Kennedy and Margolies 1985, Wiseman 1985) as the

crop that contributes devastating numbers of these migratory

moths to infest other major agronomic crops.

Sparks (1979) reviewed the life cycle of FAW. Adult

FAW are nocturnal. They move toward host plants suitable

for feeding and oviposition at dusk. Eggs are laid in

clusters and protected by a dense covering of scales.

Masses contain from a few to hundreds of eggs which hatch in

2-4 days at temperatures around 21.1 26.7 "C. Larvae

consume egg shells as they hatch and feed on host plants

until completion of 6 instars. The sixth instar drops to

the ground and pupates in the soil at a depth of about

2.54 7.62 cm, depending on soil texture, moisture, and

temperature. The first 3 instars are small and require less

than 2% of the total foliage consumed. The life cycle

requires about 30 days at 80 *F (Barfield et al. 1978)

(June-August) throughout the southeastern U.S. and around

the Gulf Coast states. At colder temperatures, a FAW

generation may take 80-90 days.

FAW does not diapause and, therefore, its geographical

range in the U.S. in winter is reduced to south Florida and

the southern coastal areas of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi,

Louisiana and Texas (Hinds and Dew 1915). In early spring,

FAW populations begin to spread northward and westward

within the continental U.S. at rates estimated in some years

to be about 300 miles per generation. Southerly winds are

believed to be an important factor in this annual dispersal.









Single year loss estimates due to FAW in the southeastern

U.S. have ranged between $ 30 and 60 million (Sparks 1979).

Pitre (1986) indicates that FAW populations in the

southeastern United States are resistant to carbaryl

[Sevin], methyl parathion [Metacide], trichlorfon

[Dylox], and diazinon [Spectracide]. Methomyl [Lannate],

seemed to be effective in all areas, but susceptibility in

Florida was declining. Tactics such as chemigation (the

application of insecticides through irrigation water), as

opposed to aerial broadcasting, and the use of synthetic

pyrethroids are new methods being adopted to improve the

efficiency of chemical control of FAW. As numerous attempts

at FAW control fail, a feasible alternative management

strategy is sought. Resistant host plants and natural

enemies are considered to be premier alternatives to

chemical control.

A single tactic (e.g., chemical control) or a

combination of tactics (e.g., resistant varieties and

natural enemies together) may be adopted in an attempt to

manage FAW on corn. Dependence on chemicals alone

historically leads to resistance, resurgence and adverse

effects on non-target organisms among other problems. Each

year in the United States, despite the use of all pesticides

and other controls, pests destroy about 37% of all potential

crops (Pimental et al. 1978). Sole dependence on chemical

control is not a sustainable strategy for pest control.





6

Resistant varieties and natural enemies, on the other hand,

are sustainable strategies that do not pose any of the

above-mentioned problems. Understanding the nutritional

ecology of the FAW on a host plant, and how this might

impinge on natural enemies or affect the efficacy of

pesticides, is useful in designing pest control strategies.

Tri-trophic interactions occur among corn (the primary

producer), FAW (the consumer), and natural enemies at the

third trophic level. The role of resistant host plants on

FAW feeding, natural enemy attack of FAW, and insecticide

susceptibility of FAW will be discussed.



Host Plant Resistance and Natural Enemies

Painter (1951, p.2) defined plant resistance to insects

as ". the relative amount of heritable qualities

possessed by the plant which influence the ultimate degree

of damage done by the insect". He also points out that in

order to be a useful character, resistance must be

inherited. Resistance is relative, and various degrees of

resistance can be recognized (e.g., immunity, high

resistance, low resistance). The mechanisms generally

accepted and used frequently by entomologists studying plant

resistance to insects are those proposed by Painter (1951):

non-preference, antibiosis and tolerance. These three

mechanisms may be of a physical or chemical nature, and

there are many factors that 'condition' all of the

mechanisms: (1) how the insect utilizes the plant or plant






7

parts for food, shelter or oviposition; (2) whether adults

and larvae use the same plant for food; (3) features of the

environment such as temperature; and many others. A review

of the state-of-the-art of plant resistance to FAW was

presented by Wiseman and Davis (1979).

The mechanisms of resistance can have a direct effect

on the feeding behavior of an insect pest. Antibiosis

includes those adverse effects on the insect's life history

which result when a resistant variety is used for food

(Painter, 1951). Measured effects of resistance may be in

the form of death in the early instars, small size or low

weight, abnormal longevity, low food reserves, reduced

fecundity, death in the prepupal stage, and abnormal

behavior (Owens, 1975). A resistant variety may possess

adequate food supply and provide all necessary nutrients,

while a susceptible variety may be lacking in a necessary

diet substance. An insect may therefore gorge itself,

destroying or consuming the susceptible host plant, to meet

its dietary needs. This statement is somewhat counter-

intuitive, but explains to an extent differences in

consumption rates for insects feeding on resistant, versus

susceptible, varieties of plants. Furthermore, a resistant

variety may lack some qualities which provide the attractive

stimulus in susceptible varieties, and resistant varieties

may possess repellant qualities which can compete with or

mask an attractant (Wiseman et al. 1983). Wiseman et al.

(1983) state that these characteristics make plant





8

resistance to insects the most useful of all integrated

controls. Wiseman (1985) reviews the mechanisms and types

of plant resistance. Several corn genotypes have been

identified as having resistance to the FAW (Wiseman et al.

1981, Williams et al. 1983). 'Zapalote Chico' 2451 # (PC3)

is a dent corn resistant to silk and ear feeding in the

field. A dent corn is the commercial classification of corn

characterized by a depression in the crown of the kernel

caused by unequal drying of the hard and soft starch making

up the kernel. Some of the highest levels of resistance

known in corn have been found in the silks of 'Zapalote

Chico' (ZC) corn (Straub and Fairchild 1970; Wiseman et al.

1976,1977, 1978). Investigation into the feeding and

developmental responses, which will define the phytochemical

nature of the resistance, has been attempted. Wiseman et

al. (1984) developed and used a laboratory bioassay to

evaluate feeding responses of FAW to ZC. Wiseman and

Widstrom (1986) reported the mechanisms of resistance of ZC

corn silks to FAW larvae, indicating that antibiotic factors

present in the silks result in the production of small

larvae, small pupae and longer life cycle compared with

those fed silks of the susceptible sweet corn 'Stowell's

Evergreen'. An attempt was made to investigate the effect

of the resistant cultivar 'Zapalote Chico' on FAW feeding,

growth, development and fecundity.

Biological control, abbreviated biocontroll" involves

importation, conservation, and/or encouragement of






9

parasites, parasitoids and predators to reduce pest

densities to a level below the economic injury level, and

(ideally) maintain them there. Applied biocontrol implies

active intervention with biotic components of agroecosystems

(Horn 1988). Successful biocontrol is relatively safe,

permanent and economical after the initial investment.

The concurrent use of plant resistance and biological

control is compatible in principle since both aim at

suppression of the insect pest population. However such

plant-pest-natural enemy interactions are rarely

investigated. In the present study a second resistant

cultivar, also thought to be resistant via antibiosis,

MpSWCB-4, was used to study the effect of a resistant

cultivar on a natural enemy of FAW, Archytas marmoratus

(Townsend) (Diptera: Tachinidae), in the field. Archytas

marmoratus (AM) is a primary larviporous, larval-pupal

parasitoid of FAW and other noctuids in North and South

America and in the West Indies (Sabrosky 1978, Ashley 1979).

Findings by Gross et al. (1976) and Pair et al. (1986a),

from collections of 5th and 6th instars of the corn earworm,

Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), and FAW larvae on corn, revealed

that AM is a major parasitoid of these species, especially

in south Georgia and north Florida. It has since been

reared successfully on a large scale using maggots extracted

mechanically from fecund females (Gross and Johnson, 1985).

Some research has been done on possible detrimental effects

of plant antibiosis on biological control agents of various





10

insect pests including the FAW. Helicoverpa zea has an

ichneumonid parasite, Hyposoter exiquae (Viereck). Campbell

and Duffy (1979) found this parasite could be poisoned by an

antibiotic (a-tomatine) from resistant tomato plants. Even

though a-tomatine is useful in controlling tomato pests, it

has an adverse effect on the natural enemy, H. exiguae.

preventing the parasitoid from exerting an additional pest

population regulation effect. This is an example of

potential incompatibility of a resistant variety and

biological control. The antibiotic in the resistant plant

protects the insect from its natural enemy by serving as a

prophalactic against the parasitoid. Yanes and Boethel

(1983) found that the introduced parasitoid, Microplitis

demolitor Wilkinson, in the soybean looper, Pseudoplusia

includes, greatly reduced larval weight and leaf

consumption for loopers reared on soybean resistant variety

PI 227687. Here, the resistant host plant synergizes the

effect of the natural enemy and proves to be compatible with

the biological control agent. Isenhour and Wiseman (1989)

studied parasitism of FAW by Campoletis sonorensis, affected

by host feeding on silks of ZC. Wiseman et al. (1983)

looked at the influence of resistant and susceptible corn

silks on selected developmental parameters of the corn

earworm. Isenhour et al (1989) reported enhanced predation

by Orius insidiosus (Say) on larvae of FAW and corn earworm

caused by prey feeding on the resistant corn genotypes

MpSWCB-4 and ZC. The influence of resistant plants on






11

interactions between insect herbivores and natural enemies

must be studied to determine compatibility.



Chemical Control

Most insecticides exert a density-independent effect on

insect populations. Application of a chemical control

usually results in populations below an economic injury

level (EIL), the lowest pest population density which will

cause economic damage; however, population density is not

regulated about a mean, as is (ideally) the case with

biological control. If the population is not reduced

sufficiently, re-application of insecticides becomes

necessary to achieve low densities of pests.

Insecticides presently are the chief weapon against

insect pests. Chemical control is the most widely used

single technique to reduce densities of insect pests. An

advantage of using insecticides is that the proper

insecticide, properly applied at the right time, nearly

always causes swift death to insects in the treated area.

They are useful in emergencies, when a rapid reduction in

insect population density is necessary to prevent serious

economic loss.

There is an ongoing search for alternative methods of

pest control in corn and other crops, but predictably,

insecticides will be used on a large scale, world wide, for

some time to come (Kumar, 1984). It is therefore necessary





12

to understand interactions of pesticides with other pest

management tactics.

Mixed function oxidases (MFO), located in the

endoplasmic reticulum of cells, play an important role in

the metabolism of xenobiotics such as insecticides. A

detailed review of the functional role of MFO in insects has

been published by Hodgson (1983a). This system is thought

to be partially responsible for the selective toxicity of

insecticides, the development of resistance and the degree

of herbivore polyphagy. The effects of host plants on the

MFO has been researched by Yu (1982a). Host plants have

been reported to affect both the insect's detoxification

system and its susceptibility to pesticides. Yu (1982a)

found corn-fed FAW to be more tolerant of certain pesticides

than soybean-fed FAW. The present study investigates the

effect of two resistant corn cultivars on the MFO of FAW and

on susceptibility of FAW to three groups of insecticides a

carbamate, an organophosphate and a synthetic pyrethroid.

Pesticides frequently are components of pest management

programs in corn, so knowing the factors that influence

efficacy, which can vary as a function of host plant and

nutritional status (Kea et al. 1978, Berry et al. 1980, Yu

1982a) is useful.





13

Interactions Among Three Trophic Levels

Price et al. (1980) described the influence of plants

on interactions between insect herbivores and natural

enemies. Terrestrial communities are composed of at least

three interacting trophic levels: plants, herbivores, and

natural enemies of herbivores. Price et al. (1980) argue

that theory on insect-plant interactions cannot progress

realistically without consideration of the third trophic

level. Plants have many effects, direct and indirect,

positive and negative, not only on herbivores but also on

the enemies of herbivores. The third trophic level must be

considered as part of a plant's battery of defenses against

herbivores.

There are several theories on interactions among

plants, herbivores and natural enemies of herbivores;

however these theories are rarely viewed in the same context

or even in the context of how they apply in agroecosystems.

The theory of plant chemical defense, as developed by Feeny

(1975, 1976), permits some predictions about the efficacy of

the herbivores' enemies as influenced by the life history of

the plant. Feeny (1976) points out that any plant condition

that lowers the growth rate of an insect herbivore makes it

available to natural enemies for a longer period and raises

the probability of mortality. For example, where insects

fed on plants containing tannins and other digestibility

reducers; lowered digestibility of food was compensated

partially by prolonged feeding. He argues that plants with





14

digestibility reducers, should support herbivores that are

more heavily attacked by enemies, than herbivores on plants

without digestibility reducers. Agroecosystems have made

previously non-apparent plants more apparent to insects and

have provided habitats with high resource availability.

Increased herbivory has been the predictable result.

Aspects of interaction between plant genotypes and

biological control were discussed by Bergman and Tingey

(1979). They emphasize that, as resistant cultivars become

more widely used in pest management, their compatibility

with biological control agents must be given serious

consideration. The concurrent use of resistant cultivars

and natural enemies can provide density-independent

mortality in times of low pest density and dynamic density-

dependent mortality in times of pest increase (resistant

cultivars can exert density-independent mortality on the

pest while natural enemies exert dynamic density-dependent

mortality). Numerous studies indicate that predator and

parasite performance may be altered by the host plant of the

prey (e.g., Flanders 1942, Smith 1957). Painter (1951)

discussed 2 ways in which plant resistance can influence

natural enemies. A reduction in prey population may affect

the success of some predators and parasites if prey density

falls below the optimum searching capacity of the natural

enemy. Secondly, host plant-induced changes in prey

physiology and behavior may modify the success of natural

enemies. The purpose of this study was to investigate






15

specifically, relationships among FAW, resistant cultivars

of corn and a natural enemy of FAW, in the context of pest

management.














CHAPTER II


CONSUMPTION, DEVELOPMENT AND FECUNDITY OF FAW ON DIETS
CONTAINING SILKS OF THE RESISTANT
CORN CULTIVAR 'ZAPALOTE CHICO'


Introduction

The mechanisms of plant resistance generally accepted

and used by entomologists in insect plant resistance studies

are those proposed by Painter (1951): preference/

nonpreference, antibiosis and tolerance. Antibiosis effects

may take the form of death in the early instars, small size

or reduced weight, abnormal longevity, low food reserves,

less fecundity, death in the prepupal stage, and abnormal

behavior (Owens, 1975). Antixenosis is a term used for

nonpreference, by which feeding or oviposition may be

delayed or prevented (Wiseman, 1985) by either absence of a

stimulant or the presence of a deterrent.

A review of the history and the state-of-the-art of

plant resistance to FAW was presented by Wiseman and Davis

(1979). Wiseman and Widstrom (1986) reported that both

nonpreference and antibiosis resistance to feeding are

manifested in the silks of Zapalote Chico (ZC) corn to

Helicoverpa zea (Boddie). Silks of ZC 2451 have been

demonstrated to cause high mortality of FAW by the 10th day













of larval feeding. Wiseman and Widstrom (1986) reported

that antibiotic factors in the silks result in production of

small larvae, small pupae, and longer life cycle compared

with those fed silks of Stowell's Evergreen (SEG) sweet

corn. They found that larvae fed a diet of 80 g (fresh

weight) susceptible silks weighed 246 mg compared with only

4 mg for those fed ZC silks. A high degree of nonpreference

also was indicated. Waiss et al. (1979) found high levels

of a flavone glycoside, maysin, in ZC.

Slansky (1982) describes the paradigm where insects may

alter performance to reach maximum possible fitness.

Alterations in performance may involve compensatory

responses; for example, altering consumption rate and/or

food utilization to obtain sufficient nutrients to reach

some minimum weight required to stimulate ecdysis (Slansky

and Scriber 1985). Antibiosis, as caused by feeding on ZC,

may stimulate some compensatory response in FAW.

Reported here are experiments to determine the effects

of silks of the resistant corn cultivar ZC on fall armyworm

larval growth, development and fecundity. The method of

Blau et al. (1978) was used to separate the effects of

feeding inhibition and toxicity leading to antibiosis, the

suspected mechanism of resistance.






18

Materials and Methods

Insects

FAW eggs were obtained from a colony maintained on a

pinto bean meridic diet (Perkins, 1979) at the Insect

Biology and Population Management Research Laboratory,

Tifton, Georgia. Neonate larvae were reared on experimental

diets. One neonate larva was placed in each cup, and the

cup was sealed with a paper lid. Thirty cups of each diet

were set up. The cups were maintained at 26.7 + 2 *C, at

least 75% RH and 14L:10D. Daily observation allowed records

to be kept of the duration of each instar and of any

mortality. Fresh weights of newly molted fifth instars were

taken, and fresh food fed to them was weighed to allow

measurement of food consumption. Percent dry weight of the

initial diet fed was determined by noting the fresh weight

of 5 samples of each of the five diets, drying for 48 hours

in the oven at 60 + 1 *C and re-weighing. Pupae were

removed within 8 hours of pupation, dried and weighed.

Feces and uneaten diet were collected, dried and weighed to

obtain their respective dry weights. A Mettler H35AR

balance, accurate to 0.1 mg was used for all weights. All

material was dried at 60 + 1 *C for at least 48 hours.



Experimental Diet

Two corn genotypes were selected: cv. Stowell's

Evergreen, a sweet corn susceptible to silk and ear feeding

in the field by Helicoverpa zea (Boddie) larvae, and cv.






19

Zapalote Chico 2451# (PC3), a dent corn resistant to silk

and ear feeding in the field. The corn used in this

experiment was grown in, single-row-plot plantings, 6.1 m

long and 0.76 m apart, at Tifton in 1987 according to

agronomic practices common to the area.

Diet prepared as follows was provided by Dr. B. Wiseman

of the USDA laboratory in Tifton Georgia: Silks of each

genotype were harvested 2 days after emergence from the husk

leaves. They were excised at the tip of the ear, bulked,

and oven dried at 41 +30 C for about 10 days, then ground to

a fine powder (1.0 mm screen) using a Cyclotec TC1093

(Fisher Scientific, Atlanta) sample mill. Dry silks were

stored in a freezer at -10 + 00 C until prepared for use.

One concentration of the SEG silk diet was prepared to serve

as a susceptible diet check. This contained 5 g of SEG

silks in diluted pinto bean diet (300 ml diet : 100 ml

distilled water) (Burton 1967). The control diet contained

no silk. Three concentrations of ZC silk diet were

prepared: 5 g, 10 g, and 20 g. The silk-pinto bean diets

were dispensed into 30 ml plastic diet cups, 10 ml per cup,

and allowed to solidify for about 2 hours.



Quantitative Performance Studies

Larval food consumption, growth and food utilization

indices were calculated, using gravimetric techniques based

on dry weights (Slansky and Scriber 1985) in 1988.

Performance indices included: larval period (days), day 1





20

pupal dry weight, dry weight gained during the last instar,

food utilization efficiencies (AD = Approximate

digestibility, ECD = Efficiency of conversion of digested

food, and ECI = Efficiency of conversion of ingested food),

relative growth rate (RGR) and relative consumption rate

(RCR). These parameters and their interrelationships are

defined in the appendix (after Finke 1977). Experimental

results were analyzed using the GLM procedure and Tukey's

studentized range test (p=0.05) to separate means (SAS

Institute Inc. 1989).



Toxicity/Feeding Inhibition Test

Unequivocal demonstration of toxicity is often hampered

by the behavioral responses of experimental insects, and

slow growth does not necessarily indicate adverse effects on

metabolism, but possibly a result of behavioral inhibition

of feeding (Waldbauer 1962). Blau et al. (1978) describe a

technique that permits clearer distinction between feeding

inhibition and toxicity. This method was used to separate

the effects of feeding inhibition and toxicity leading to

antibiosis, the suspected mechanism of resistance for ZC

silks.

Twelve newly molted 6th instar FAW larvae reared from

eggs were weighed individually, placed in individual petri

dishes and fed a quantity of pinto bean check diet to

determine an approximate fresh weight consumed in 24 hrs. A

calibration curve for final instar larvae reared from eggs






21

on the check pinto bean meridic diet was obtained by

offering groups of 6 newly molted 6th instar larvae

different amounts of diet, ranging from none at all,

approximately 25%, 50%, 75%, and more than the amount

previously determined to be consumed within 24 hours. All

of the larvae were set up individually in petri dishes.

(Percentage fresh weight of both diet and larvae were

determined by obtaining fresh weights of 5 samples of diet

and 10 individual larvae and oven drying these as previously

described). Larvae were left to feed and then both they and

any remaining diet weighed after 24 hrs. Resultant data

were used to determine the regression slope of growth rate

on consumption rate for the check diet.

Groups of 12 newly molted 6th instar larvae, reared

from eggs on the check diet, were then individually weighed

and fed the check diets and test diets containing SEG and ZC

silks for 24 hrs., in individual petri dishes (1 group per

diet). Relative growth and relative consumption rates were

calculated and plotted relative to the calibration curve for

the check diet.



Fecundity Studies

Thirty FAW larvae were reared individually, in 30 ml

plastic diet cups until pupation on a pinto bean diet and on

SEG and ZC silk diets as previously described. Pupae were

removed and sexed. Separate sexes were placed in

PlexiglassTM cages (45x40x40 cm). Upon emergence, males and





22

females were paired, (10 pairs were set up per diet) and

placed in oviposition cages (screen cylinders 20 cm x 9 cm)

and supplied 'BountyTM' hand towel paper as an oviposition

substrate. The paper towel was secured by a rubber band

over the top of the cage. Moths were provided a 10% sucrose

solution. All oviposition cages were held in a rearing

chamber (PercivalTM incubator model I-35LLs) at 26.0 + 1o C

and 90% RH. Oviposition substrates were removed every

second day, and replaced. All surfaces, the oviposition

substrate, and the sides of the cage were checked for eggs

and all eggs counted under the microscope.

Eggs were counted under the microscope with the aid

of a fine forceps and a hand held dissecting pin to separate

eggs within a mass. Experimental results were analyzed

using the GLM procedure of SAS (SAS Institute Inc. 1989).



Pupal Weight Study

FAW larvae were reared on the five diets as described,

individually, until pupation. Thirty-six pupae were removed

from cups within 24 hours of pupation, sexed and weighed.

Percent dry weight of pupae was determined by obtaining

fresh weights and oven drying a sample of 10 pupae of each

sex from each diet for 48 hrs at 60o C. Experimental

results were analyzed using the GLM procedure and Tukey's

studentized range test to separate means, since this test is

moderately conservative (SAS Institute Inc. 1989).






23

Results and Discussion

Tables 1 and 2 summarize the developmental parameters

for FAW reared on the pinto bean check (CK) diet, the SEG

silk and the ZC silk diets. By incorporating three

different quantities of ZC silks into the diet, a gradient

of resistance was created, to facilitate the observation of

the effects on larval mortality and developmental time.

Effects of a "low dose" or "high dose" of any allelochemical

or antibiotic factor should have been observed at the two

extremes, ZC-5 g and ZC-20 g.



Larval Mortality and Developmental Time

Developmental time for FAW larvae (1st instar to

pupation) varied on the diets containing silks of SEG and

ZC. Larvae reared on the pinto bean check diet (which did

not contain any silks) had the shortest developmental time

of about 15 days (Figure 1). Larval duration was about 17,

21, 23, and 33 days on the SEG, ZC-5, ZC-10, and the ZC-20

diets respectively. Larvae fed the SEG and the ZC-5 g silk

diets had progressively longer developmental times; the

differences were statistically significant. There was a

significant increase in developmental time to about 23 days

and 33 days when larvae fed on ZC-10 g and ZC-20 g silk

diets, respectively. There was no significant increase in

larval duration for larvae fed ZC-5 and the ZC-10 diet. The

ZC-20 g diet caused a twofold increase in developmental time

when compared to the check diet.









d 0.- .. V -
NE-4 r- o ,H N o l N

a oo rco OD H
N >I

1-- 0-
.H r aH 0
o Q) -- w c


OM Co 9- 0N ( iOo AN
rlINC 0 N 9-1 0 H OH -4o -H -
r-O CM V NM'-r HV %D V N,- 4 H

44 0 0 N 0
V 40
SO H H C '0
(0 *. 04

.4,4 5,4

.H 0 U)
10 CAo OH r m



S 03 8o o
(O N'- n'-O O N'- N- H- )



t oo NN (0 LA L









, E o a o 0 ,. -
01 -- I- r-f ,, C .H 4i.





%J0 rHo
(0 41 N 0 4 H n i Sg



X1 0 0 41
0 44 %D O I m o HcIo inn CL N O
NN 4L 0 r0 aN H "
M 0) L 4 c4 c; c4 c4 c > a) t,0
+j c .
4-(1) 14 L -i A LANrMI ON m' r- yUN 0%O










'40



tC En 0 0 0 14
0H> C -4 L 0 NA N 0
Mi r3 o4N O in Cd ir a) '"1

H r (a- 0 I I It
-P r4.J p" 54 0 0 0
S1)1 0 0 01> 0 0
00m 0 '** > -H -H *H WON
000 -H ) "

0 u o0
U ) U) oL AH -
0 0 0 0 r4#

0- > rO r-D r-I (d 4c J
H H 4 Ii to to m>
H O O O .HON
0O 0 H H H 1I


a N N N a















H

r00





40

i
m o
00
Vo


do







N 0
0 0


0

.0
0



0



40

0


O
0 9
4-4 M
0
(Uo
m.-4-)


00



O-
0 U)
S4O
9010
n r-4 )
0 -4 r-4



r0 0
0U2



OQO
410 -1,
o uc






00-r0
4 c,-i




J0 Q)

~~to



a,
40 M


4u -H
CP
(a4) .0



(000
-4








SE000
OH 0


*^ H)



4' -4 4J
'4-4HH
W 4d4 U


0 a
0

00
Co





a
. 03
S0
LO








So
00















0
4.)
.r4





0









-< 0








U
0

0




43
0
*P


d 0









\o o
0







0O
. 0
0 0







m 0








SO

r-I









,o













0)
,)
v
















0






i-)
0)


O
co40
v 0
00 0


V
v
ac4
*4 0


0 V
0**
$^4- 44
$4 44 N
0 -M1-

41 >4



44 a
mC q
+UM




4g) m
4 cM

4.0
V I 04
SO N






SHOO
$4#
E-1 0 N






cW I




44. OH
4.) N

H -) a
a t

U) -4I
0v

40 C

a a




g0 C
S0U)
0 r I
#ON










0 0
c c
.n



ij c
b 6*
3 n a
S P o4


0
<
COHr

HO





0

(oO
00










0
H


0
-43

U
0)
0

1-1

N


0


0




r*






0















0t
0
0



--I
U


O
4
0



N






26

Comparing the time to develop from the 5th instar to

pupation on the silk and CK diets, larvae fed on the ZC-20 g

silk diet took 16 days to pupate compared with 6, 7, or 8

and 9 days respectively on the CK, SEG and ZC-5 and ZC-10

diets, respectively (Figure 2). This was consistent with

the pattern observed for overall developmental time for the

different diets. There was a significant difference in time

to develop from 5th instar to pupation for larvae fed the CK

and the SEG diet. Development time from 5th to pupation for

larvae fed ZC-5 and ZC-10 diets were not significantly

different using Tukey's studentized range test to separate

means. Table 1 summarizes the data for the developmental

parameters of fall armyworm larval instars feeding on diets

containing silks of Zapalote Chico and Stowell's Evergreen.

Sample sizes and results of Tukey's studentized range test

are indicated on all tables.

Mortality was not significantly different for the

different diets. Percent mortality was 3%, 6%, 3%, 6% and

6% for larvae fed the CK, SEG, ZC-5, ZC-10, and ZC-20 silk

diets respectively. Some of the larvae died from drowning

in water that had condensed in the growth chamber as a

result of using a humidifier within the chamber. Percent

mortality on the different diets is presented in Table A-2.

Differences in sample sizes in the materials and methods and

sample sizes used in statistical analyses were due to deaths

from drowning, and larvae sacrificed by being weighed and

dried to obtain dry weight percentages.








Larval Weights

Figure 3 indicates that there was a progressive

decrease in fresh weight of 5th instar FAW larvae reared on

the various ZC silk diets; however, these were not

significantly different.

Percentage dry weights for 5th instar larvae reared on

the different diets are presented in Figure 4. There was no

indication of a significant difference in larval percent

dryweight between the CK and the various ZC silk diets.

Fifth instar larvae fed the SEG silk diet had a

significantly higher percent dry weight than larvae reared

on all the other diets.



Pupal Weights

Figure 5 shows the mean pupal fresh weights of FAW

reared on diets containing Zapalote Chico silks. Pupal

fresh weight decreased significantly as the quantity of ZC

silk increased in the diet (Tukey's studentized range test).

There were significant differences found in pupal dry

weights for the different diets (Figure 6). Pupae from the

CK diet had the highest dry weight. Dry weight of the CK,

SEG and ZC-5 g pupae were similar (no significant

differences). Dry weight of pupae from the ZC-10 g diet was

significantly lower than the dry weights of pupae from the

CK, SEG and the ZC-5 g diets, and significantly higher than

dry weight of pupae from the ZC-20 g diet. As ZC silk

concentration in the diet increased to 20 g, pupal dry











p-
rt



rtO S
I-, (a


N 31
0 0t<
S.- P,- h-j
P-O o
H 0 P- 01

0 kQ "
1-o 0)

Ow N
P. P.

ON N

O -o o



S 0 0-'
0(D 00 I-C H



P-rt t 0
(D < t


0 rtl ,.
Srt- (D

0)
1* OO



01
S0


1 tr
(Do3

Pi m
o En 0
M3-








00



ul D





ort*
-H 0
0


0< rt
DPI-



0> ,
Q r1
P
3IP
(U (1
3 3
0' 0

















































0 iO o0 n 0 LO
,, r) cn CN -


0
CN

CD
N

0


N





H--
LLJ

Ln
I-


uL 0


(savo) 3Ni








U() U
0)0
-ri r-I 44

0 00


'N

0


> -H



4JU


LO --4 II
(U





4J 0
tof~





Sr(U (U


UQ)N
aa




r18Nc1





0 wu *-
E0





C.)




4)w -0






Q) U4 H
0r-I $4 >

Hl U)V
r- b-rl (1
>) 0

rr
a) to4)4
44 -H 0,4
*H4 -Hj
.rA
00
4-) 4) 4)r


4) 0UU








r-
4)l
> 0



















0
C:)
Oq
N

0

N


LO
U-)
N



CA




0
LLJ










to C4 0)C 0 0


(sNac) 3iVli










C OU
OON

0 0N



a.)



e-1 ,.







0
U)


)m







1 O
,Q) I-
t o -
4. 0 t







O







*H -H










(U
go o El





.44

















0
r-4V0 r

'NU
M -4 to










>4 N





1-
-d
tp
tr








*U U0




MK
mQa C-)

ONl~




















0

N




N
L00

LO
N


(-5
I)










Ln LO ,d- ,d- n nN CNV C0-


(6w) IHO13M HS3Ji







SQ) II
C ,- 0
4J1
*w-I -d (
AN

o O
Um




0 o

OC.4
0o >



:-44


r-4 *4J
H 0
"0;0
0 H U




0 0







r *0 HL

41 0 -

.d U) w

4.) 00N
kON!









O' -P0





4H4
S.1 e-













.4J
-H-











rc4
r-1 a1
(fl0 'f
Q)=
1USUU

as





















0
CO

N


0


N

CO3
LO
O
N




U)
ol









Ln 0 0 0 U0 0
Nl N -


IHO1iM ,kdC1 INi3tdid





36

weight decreased to a significantly lower weight of 44.20 mg

compared to 76.26 mg on the CK diet.

Diet Dry Weights

Significant differences were found among the dry

weight percent of the different diets (Figure 7). This may

have been due to the quantity of silk in the different

diets. The ZC-20 g diet had the highest dry weight content

at 38%. The maximum difference in percentage dry weight

between diets was 11 percentage points (i.e. 38-27%).



Relative growth rate

The relative growth rate (RGR = RCR x AD x ECD)

[biomass dry weight gain (mg)/average caterpillar dry weight

(mg)/developmental time (days)] also decreased with an

increase of ZC silk in the diet consumed (Table 2). The FAW

larvae reared on the ZC-10 g diet had an RGR of 0.26

mg/mg/day while larvae reared on the ZC-20 g silk diet had

an RGR of 0.13 mg/mg/day. A doubling of silk concentration

in this instance gave rise to a 50% reduction in growth

rate. This trend was not observed between ZC-5 and ZC-10.



Relative consumption

The relative consumption rate of dry weight (dw) (RCR =

mg dw consumed/mg mean body dw/day) decreased as the silk

concentration of Zapalote Chico in the diet increased. The

lowest RCR was with the ZC-20 g diet, and the highest on the

silk free diet. There was a significant difference in RCR






37

between the larvae reared on the CK diet and on all the test

diets (Table 2).



Approximate Digestibility

There were some significant differences in approximate

digestibility (AD = [mg dw consumed mg dw feces]/mg dw

consumed) for larvae feeding on the silk diets, (Table 2).

Larvae fed the ZC-5 diet had an AD that was significantly

higher than the other diets. The approximate digestibility

(AD) estimates the proportion of ingested food (dry weight)

that is consumed and assimilated.



Efficiency of Conversion of Digested Food

Efficiency of conversion of digested food into insect

tissue (ECD) [biomass gain/(ingestion-feces) all dry

weights] varied significantly on the different diets. No

progressive trend was observed with and increase in silk

concentration. The ECD for larvae fed the SEG diet was

significantly higher than the ECD of for all diets except

ZC-10, (Table 2).



Efficiency of Conversion of Ingested Food

The efficiency of conversion of ingested food into

insect tissue (ECI) [biomass gain/ingestion, all dry weight

mg], decreased on the ZC silk diet. ZC-20, the diet with

the highest concentration of silk resulted in the lowest

ECI, compared to the highest on the control diet. The ECI










0)0

04d







ON
*.-I H qn
vdc..






A
LUE


0 rq








P 4O





,U


o N
54J8

0 N









*'-4-4



0,54
(U 7











0S-
4ja

















-H4r
krrq



WU0













.440.5
0- thr-
IV tp
rz4
0 4 -ri

tp~
.r-l



P4~



























N

LJ
F-

0
It--


0
N





N






0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 u 0 u) 0 Ln
ro0 N CN -- --



(9oA) 3Vdnd JO HO313M HS3IlJ














ro



-0(


134 U
0 n


a)

oW)N
04
c WV
a4W d

0





00 4
(1)







N> a)
0U0 ) 0







H4 4) > 0

4) --1 En


4) 04-
0 >C





a .0










044
S(1-40
V 0


r-4 n


ntr 0
00

r-4
4jU
0 4)o
0 4J 4
0
rl i
(0 Mk

















O
C)
O
N


0

N
Ll

N


I I I I I I I I
CD oO r- cD Ion fl- n c

(5wL) IH313DM )Ad


~





















0
old






r.3
to


NN




0e- 0





0~
UO


Nre4






U
4)4







4J
(O






H 0






0
r-i
o







SUX
4.)







$4
tP >















0
*U) O











P4-
00
'-I










-1
4) 0 tp






















0
N
Co)
0
N


0


N
L-J

LU

N



Li


V,


u


I I I I I I I I I I
1 0 o L o L o u-0 o 00
,;IJ- r ) N N V


1310 JO IHOOiM AdON IN30di3d








OH


-r40

rl )


to
4-)0

01
o r. L


p CJ >




4-)
4U


> (1)
0)qp4.) 0E
00)








0 4
0 t0 w



H- 0 0
'4-4.4A
H- 0

S0



0)VU to
r r.0


H) 0
6-) -H H















44 0
0 f)Hq-I 4






~00





*rq 0
C o~

COOH





















rL4






















/ 0

/N


CD

N
















0 0 0 0 0 0 0
O O O O 0 0 0
N- C 0 00 CD 1.4- Cw


ciiV] soo3 Jo di8enNf NVI]A






46

for larvae fed the CK, SEG and ZC-10 diets did not differ

significantly. FAW larvae feeding on the SEG silk diet had

a higher ECI than FAW feeding on the ZC-5 diet.



Fecundity

Lynch et al. (1983) described a way of estimating

fecundity by using the regression of egg mass weight on

number of eggs and larvae to determine the number of eggs

per mass and total fecundity of the fall armyworm. The FAW

egg mass consists of several layers of eggs, the bottom

layer containing the largest number of eggs. Determination

of FAW fecundity is, therefore, laborious when eggs are

counted individually, but in order to be accurate, this most

laborious method was employed. The mean numbers of eggs

laid by FAW females reared from 1st instar to pupation on

the pinto bean check diet and diets containing silks of ZC

are shown in Figure 8. An increase in ZC silk resulted in a

decrease in eggs laid. FAW females fed the ZC-20 g diet

laid significantly fewer eggs than females reared on the CK

and other test diets (Scheffe's test; Table A-3).



Toxicity/Feeding Inhibition Study

Figure 9 illustrates the estimated regression line for

FAW consumption and growth rate when feeding on a pinto bean

meridic diet with plots of growth rates against consumption

rates for FAW larvae feeding on the check diet (no silks)

for 24 hrs.. The r2 for the regression line was 0.8876.









. Z
4.) 0r
01 -H
.i-I 4-)
Ur




'0>
ou





00
-'I



~~4J




00
ON














4J4~
0Int
g4
toP







r-4







s-i


U >H
to







r4










440
*'-4

r4
9 0

m Nrl










ON 0






sr-f
.q-I
4) C.)
4-)






01~
.H.

441



















Co





CT)
4'a
E


CT
E





a)



415

U0
E]61 E





III 2
CCC





t5





C~J OD co I C~4 0
(p Bo 6B O 0II9
(Ap/6w/6w)) a~rt qMOJI~ 8A!~IOU










44 r
0 0

4m)
H
OLA
-4

04LC




*4)
a0
0




4, 4






0ro
~a)







4.r4 o
a) U











44)


-4 a
44i a
k





0) N
to















oa
44
to
*9 U>





H~0
0w
HO
a) ,














44
r4
41 0rar


to~
A4'c
4J '1
rl w





041









CO

















E



CD
0

0~









vC',
n rom
CL
E

0
L)
CD

C)













C~ co C\.I0


U) I /6W/6W) 9118H qWOJE A!j-etj










The equation obtained was:

RGR=(RCR x 0.2458) 0.2191

This is the calibration curve indicating the effect of

varying consumption rate on larval growth rate in the

absence of corn silks. Figure 10 shows plots of growth

rates against consumption rates for FAW larvae feeding on

diets containing 5 g of SEG and ZC silks for 24 hrs. These

plots are close tothe calibration curve. They are neither

below the curve, which would have been indicative of

toxicity, nor do they fall in the low consumption range.

These diets, SEG and ZC-5 are neither toxic nor do they

inhibit feeding. Figure 11 shows plots of growth rates

against consumption rates for FAW larvae feeding on diets

containing 10 and 20 g of ZC silks for 24 hrs. These points

fall below the calibration curve, giving an indication that

these diets may prove to be toxic to FAW. If feeding had

been inhibited, the points would have fallen on the

calibration curves, but in the range of low consumption

rate. This leads to the conclusion that the antibiosis

resistance observed for Zapalote Chico corn against FAW

larvae is a direct result of an antibiotic agent that is

toxic to the FAW. Tables 3 and 4 show biomass gained,

feeding and growth rates, as well as efficiency parameters

for FAW feeding for 24 hrs on the different silk diets.

Figure 12 shows all plots of growth rates and consumption









4)0


4J


0
U,0

4JH
'tr I


0

'4J





4o
(1)
a4)

-4 w

U.H-



a0

-rl
oaj


a)
r.( ro










0





0
H CJ








4J4





"4
rz4
Ea
rr



14 (

.rq



g r-I
r- rq (
4) (

44
















0
O0 *e
0 E
Oo E


E


o+
o E
CL





xC







0

N


0- CO 00 t C 0
o o o o
(Aep/6w/6w) eml-lj qlMOJo 9AjIel=I










41-



4'.4 01U


.r- -r- 4-4

0 4

O O XC


.4 ) 4.-
to~r







00 (1) -4
4-)Q)r-






o4 0 4~

434-4.1.) 4
0 w 0





0


4-4
M
044 LO















tow



0




.H
4.- a 0r
















01 4






$.0 4J-, r
A0 0.


ri p, 0
o r-I P4
U4 0 0)r-

0 (.) ( )


ri 0 a)0)

04-400p
:jP
000
S-iC
.wwUO




-4l
rz4












0
0
O
O
O
O


O co
0 *
o
0)

.*
0 E





2
E


o I

\4'S
\ r,







< o o

T- Co do d d
(Ap/6Uw/BU) 0itu 0JvIoJo eA0!2,al













0 -
0C
Ho
o .
*N V


r- 4-)
(0 0
ul3
0




0
ION









op W
^I












C0
ol







-4
1

































o
0 0

















0O
4 rH H
d .)






0

c >







in 0 q
o)




0 U
ou

^tr.2
> >





.





ari! fi
E o uL


(0









c4
ON 0






0 N
o N


(0

04 c0

n o
N'..
,- '-




0

en in
cn r-
c8A

o o
C N





A H

ON


a


%D
0 .
* i-




'.0

'.OLA


A .
* CM
rel
LA




*o
U N


O L


0
(A


0 u


CA)
r..
* 8

















LA





0
-4












u

()
4m)






0
o
o
So

r
ty











(0


>1
rH **


H U 0o




I mCU

+ OH
* a) P

o H

i o
00) H
(O IN)
4-)


aI
In0 ON
1 0 4H



Q)

0 ra c
0 >i'd U







:ON
0 0H

0 g
o a





10 .*






CU
4o

VH 4) -1
M M


000



0

4.Q) *o
cA 4J -4

*4 0

In0|

O $4 i
S oVCo
U *o


C .
No

0












0O
o



0
C-



Q4)
0
r-4
0

N


a N
or>o






o"O
AO


















0




H
0
0-)
0


u











o









ON
0




N














O4
0



0 -r4




a) -H

0 0
0 *T P





O
> a)






-,--I

UOm
0 C 0

U 0





aW()

-0
uO 0
4-4 -l














O H0 U0

-.c: (>
4 C N
:-4 *0-
U4 00


5 3


OOOM
Cr r>l




0 0
m4-M-





O4 Ha)






0 Z-,.l 4
:J 0 04







-,. O
0 0- UW



4M '0 r
0 1 4- 1 (0

0J a) (n




C -4q p m


H O

0













v


0














A

























0)

0








*I
04


(0

C(4 H
r- 0
No
oo












0









































a.)
ao
o\H
0














0






















4.)
*




















O


0)


. --

5-lr
co 0

oo






L *







0
- n

O
- 0














0























0









413
,-
In



0
I




U


O


a

N


c Hr
r-1 0
H O

0oo
-


n

00
oo

0oo












U
co
(Mo
0

OLA








o















0
*

















Co

o






0)

0

-I-
0
ac
(

N


0
1-









A
H >


v
















o






r-4

O
U



H
a

(N
N


-4 c-
0 4
rl Q
14

ca)
S<44-4
-

M M
0 >0i-

CN)








4o







OA
IA -
+ C

3 t v a












4 )
0 -
U r4 a
a) 4J


















0tP
H Nm









0 V)



*0
0) M fl)













S0 -0











co 0 0
a t
N-I
S4 V+ C-












c6
ri i
k
lQg
1 -go"
3 0
^ v^
*)











rates for all the test diets, plotted against the

calibration curve.


General Discussion

Using the method of Blau et al. 1978, the mechanism of

resistance of Zapalote Chico corn was determined to be one

of antibiosis resulting from toxicity. This supports

observations made by Wiseman and Widstrom (1986) on the

mechanisms of resistance in Zapalote Chico corn silks to FAW

larvae, but further specifies the basis of antibiosis

observed. The toxic effect of ZC corn silks may explain

some results obtained for FAW developmental parameters

measured during the 5th and 6th instars for FAW reared on

control check and silk diets such as reduced final body

weight (Bf), reduced relative growth rate (RGR), reduced

relative consumption rate (RCR).

Increased food consumption in response to reduced

nutrient levels is well documented (Slansky and Wheeler

1989; Scriber and Feeny 1979; Timmins et al., 1988).

However increasing the quantity of an allelochemical or

toxin as occurred here warrants a different set of

responses. Allelochemicals have been implicated as factors

responsible for reduced feeding rates and efficiencies

(Slansky and Scriber 1985), and for inhibiting and

prolonging insect growth (Stipanovic 1983). There was no





59

significant difference in body weight attained by the 5th

instar (Bi) by larvae reared on the check and ZC silk diets.

However final body weight (Bf), biomass gained (B) and mean

body weight (MB) decreased with an increase in ZC silk.

Over the fifth and sixth instar, the decline in biomass

gained (B) with increase in ZC silk was directly associated

with the decrease in food consumption (I), RCR, RGR, and

ECI. The toxicity of the ZC silk may have been the cause of

mortality observed in larvae fed the ZC-20 g diet.

The increase in percentage dry weight of the ZC-20 g

diet may have been responsible for the decline in

consumption rate, and may have been a confounding factor in

the interpretation of a xenobiotic causing the decline in

consumption rate. There was no progressive increase in

percentage dry weights of the Z. Chico silk diets that can

be directly correlated to the progressive decrease in

consumption rate observed with an increase in Z. Chico silk

concentration.

Pupal weight and fecundity declined significantly as ZC

silk content of FAW diet increased. This is an indication

of an inability to fully compensate for the effects of the

toxicity of the xenobiotic in the silks of ZC. This

reduction in fecundity will have ecological consequences.

Reduced fecundity in one generation implies a decrease in

population size of the subsequent generation. Increased

mortality in the larval stage has similar consequences. In

the context of pest management, this is an ideal situation,






60

as reduction in FAW populations would greatly reduce crop

damage and alleviate movement to alternate crops.

Prolonged developmental time makes larvae vulnerable to

a number of mortality agents for a longer period e.g.

parasites and predators (Price et al., 1980). The resistant

variety may have effects on natural enemies of herbivores

that are indirect in nature. A study of the effects a

resistant corn cultivar has on an economically important

pest such as the FAW, results in a better understanding of

interactions between the pest and host plant. Toxic

compounds in plants can be sequestered or cycled in

herbivores and used as defenses against the third trophic

level (Price 1986). Toxic compounds and allelochemicals

have an effect on the detoxication enzymes of FAW (Yu 1982).

The detoxication enzymes may be stimulated or induced,

increasing or decreasing the insects ability to detoxify

other xenobiotics such as pesticides. Understanding the

mechanisms of a resistant corn cultivar at the biochemical

level would constitute useful information that could be

utilized in the design of pest control strategies.












CHAPTER III

FIELD PERFORMANCE OF ARCHYTAS MARMORATUS AGAINST FALL
ARMYWORM SPODOPTERA FRUGIPERDA ON STOWELL'S EVERGREEN,
A SUSCEPTIBLE CORN CULTIVAR AND MpSWCB-4
A RESISTANT CORN CULTIVAR


Luginbill (1969), among others, considers the use of

resistant varieties an ideal method for controlling insects.

A fundamental requisite for development of IPM strategies in

corn is a precise understanding of the relationships between

corn genotypes and beneficial insects. It is important to

understand the relationships among host larvae, their diets,

and natural enemies, to determine the effectiveness of these

natural enemies as biological control agents.

Resistant varieties and natural biological control

agents may ultimately prove invaluable in developing

management programs for corn pests. Resistant varieties may

enhance natural control organisms, because insects feeding

on resistant plants generally require more time for

development and may be in a weakened condition (Maxwell et

al. 1972, Turnipseed and Sullivan 1976). Information on the

influence of resistant corn varieties upon beneficial insect

populations is lacking. Isenhour et al. (1989a) researched

enhanced predation by the bug Orius insidiosus (Say) on

larvae of Helicoverpa zea (Boddie) and Spodoptera frugiperda







(J.E.Smith) (FAW) caused by prey feeding on a resistant corn

genotype "MpSWCB-4". FAW larvae fed the resistant MpSWCB-4

had significantly higher rates of predation by adult Q.

insidiosus than did armyworm fed "Cacahuancintle", a

susceptible genotype. Studies on the European corn borer,

Ostrinia nubilalis (Hibner), and a tachinid parasitoid,

Lydella grisescens Robineau-Desvoidy indicated that corn

variety influenced the rate of parasitization (Franklin and

Holdaway 1966). In cotton, glabrous phenotypes are less

attractive to H. zea for oviposition than are hirsute

phenotypes; however, rates of egg parasitization by

Trichogramma pretiosum (Riley) were greater in glabrous

types (Treacy et al. 1985). On the other hand, resistant

host plants may be indirectly detrimental to parasitoids by

modifying the rate of reproduction and nutrition of

developing host larvae (Powell and Lambert 1984, Orr and

Boethel 1985).

Parasites, predators and parasitoids represent three

different carnivorous, interspecific interactions between

animals. In the parasites, many generations may occur on or

in a host, and there is a tendency towards the evolution of

host specificity and a more complex interrelationship.

Predators, on the other hand must locate a large number of

prey (= host) in order to grow and reproduce. Parasitoids

fall between these two extremes. Only one generation is

produced per host, and only the immature stage is parasitic,






63

while the adults are free living. A parasitoid requires the

entire host and kills it, thus eliminating the potential for

the evolution of a mutualistic relationship after the host

has been attacked. The host becomes a container for the

developing parasitoid, enabling the parasitoid to modify the

host behavior for its benefit.

The term "parasitoid" was first used by Reuter in 1913

(Hassel and Waage, 1984) to describe insects that develop as

larvae on the tissues of other arthropods, which they

eventually kill. Parasitoids have been described as

"predator-like" parasites.

Fall armyworm is attacked by a diverse complex of

natural enemies including 53 known species of parasitoids

(Ashley 1979, Gardener and Fuxa 1980). Several laboratory

studies have been carried out to assess the effectiveness of

selected parasitoids as biotic control agents of FAW

(Mitchell et al. 1984, Isenhour 1985, Pair et al. 1986a).

Archytas marmoratus (Townsend) is a tachinid parasitoid

(larval-pupal) of the Noctuidae in North and South America

and in the West Indies (Sabrosky 1978, Ashley 1979).

Numerous authors have reported its occurrence throughout the

southern United States (Quaintance and Brues 1905, Luginbill

1928, Vickery 1929, Bibby 1942, Parencia 1964, Shepard and

Sterling 1972). Findings by Gross et al. (1976) from

collections of 5th and 6th-instar larvae of H. zea and S.

frugiperda, respectively, on corn indicated that A.

marmoratus is a major parasitoid of these species,





64

particularly in south Georgia and north Florida.

Gross and Johnson (1985) discussed advances in large-

scale rearing and biological studies of A. marmoratus.

Gross et al. (1985) evaluated the performance of

mechanically extracted maggots of A. marmoratus against

larval populations of H. zea and FAW on whorl and tassel-

stage corn.

Evaluating the effects of a variety of corn on a

parasitoid of fall armyworm represents a tri-trophic

interaction, with corn as the producer, fall armyworm the

primary consumer and the parasitoid a secondary consumer.

Insect parasitoid-host relationships are often considered to

be simple, and compatibility of a parasitoid as a control

method with resistant varieties has been assumed.

Figure 13 illustrates interactions that occur in three

trophic levels. Price (1986) describes two kinds of plant

defense or plant resistance: INTRINSIC DEFENSE, where the

plant alone produces the defense through production of

chemicals such as toxins or digestibility reducers, or

through physical defense by trichomes or toughness and

EXTRINSIC DEFENSE of plants, when the plant benefits from

the natural or applied enemies of herbivores. He states

that plant breeders have emphasized the study of intrinsic

defense mechanisms; whereas, those studying biological

control of herbivores have emphasized the need for extrinsic

defense of plants. A dichotomy results because each of the































THIRD TROPHIC LEVEL


Extrinsic defense
of plant



SECOND TROPHIC LEVEL



FIRST TROPHIC LEVEL


FIRST TROPHIC LEVEL


Intrinsic defense
of plant


Figure 13. The kinds of interactions, direct and indirect, in a
typical food web, showing the relationships between intrinsic and
extrinsic defense of plants and the trade-offs between them. +, -,
0 indicate positive, negative or noeffects, the plants may impact
on the herbivore-natural enemy relationship. From Price (1986).


10





66

above mentioned independent disciplines is interested in

two trophic level systems. The two groups appear to be

melding at present and, during the last decade, the details

of direct and indirect effects of plants on herbivores and

their natural enemies at the chemical level are receiving

much attention (e.g. Bergman and Tingey 1979, Bell and Carde

1984, Barbosa and Letourneau 1988).

Host diet influences suitability of a host for a

parasitoid. Slansky (1986) discussed the nutritional

ecology of endoparasitic insects and their hosts. Campbell

and Duffey (1979) described a case of potential

incompatibility of plant antibiosis with biological control.

Effects of pest-resistant soybeans on the development of

hymenopterous parasitoids of Lepidoptera have been studied

(Yanes and Boethel, 1983; Powell and Lambert, 1984; Orr and

Boethel, 1985; and Beach and Todd, 1986). Rogers and

Sullivan (1986) studied the effects of two plant

introductions (PIs) on the lygaeid predator Geocoris

punctipes (Say). All of these except Slansky (1986) (where

nutritional ecology is discussed), document some adverse

effects on the development of beneficial species when hosts

or prey fed on pest resistant soybean genotypes.

A host may be suitable when feeding on one plant

species, but not another. The parasitoid Hyposoter exiguae

(Viereck) could not survive in H. zea larvae fed on

artificial diet containing even small amounts of the

alkaloid a-tomatine, but if cholesterol was added to the





67

diet, this deleterious effect was eliminated (Greaney et al.

1984). Bergman and Tingey (1979) reviewed various types of

interactions that occur between host plants, insect pests,

and their natural enemies. There is a direct influence of

plant hosts on natural enemies; volatiles, plant growth

characteristics, toxic and nutritional factors, and foliage

morphology all directly affect natural enemies. Doutt

(1964) discussed the directed orientation of predators and

parasites to host plants of their prey and the differential

attraction that occurs among crop varieties. Franklin and

Holdaway (1966) reported differential attraction of Lydella

grisescens Robineau-Desvoidy, a parasite of the European

corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis (Hubner) to different maize

hybrids. Many predators and parasites use plant juices,

nectar, and pollen as sources of food and water. Q.

insidiosus a predator of H. zea, consumes juices and pollen

of corn and cotton (Dicke and Jarvis 1962).

Bergman and Tingey (1979) also pointed out that the

nutritional substrate offered by a host plant can indirectly

influence predator and parasite fitness in several ways;

prey confined to resistant hosts commonly experience reduced

growth rates, greater developmental time and mortality, and

decreased fecundity. Such dramatic alterations of

physiological processes may change the nutritional quality

of the prey as food/host for predators and parasites.

Gross and Pair (1986) reviewed the impact of endemic

parasitoids and predators as regulators of fall armyworm





68

populations and identified areas of research and development

that must be addressed before significant advances can be

made in importation and augmentation. Pair et al. (1986)

discussed the influence of four corn cultivars on FAW

establishment and parasitization. Gross (1988) studied

field survival and performance of mechanically extracted

maggots of A. marmoratus on FAW and indicated that good

field survival occurred.

Isenhour and Wiseman (1988) reported effects of

parasitism of the FAW by Campoletis sonorensis (Cameron) as

affected by host feeding on resistant Zea mays L. cv.

Zapalote Chico. The research described in this chapter

examined the use of mechanically extracted larvae of A.

marmoratus (Townsend), as a biological control agent against

FAW, is compatible with the use of a leaf-feeding resistant

cultivar of corn (MpSWCB-4).



Materials and Methods

Two varieties of corn, "Stowell's Evergreen" (SEG) and

MpSWCB-4 were planted on an experimental farm near Tifton,

Georgia and maintained according to recommended cultural

practices. Test plots (2 each year) were planted in May

1988 and 1989. There were ten replicates for each cultivar.

Each replicate contained paired rows of each cultivar.

Plants in test plot 1 were used for the A. marmoratus

performance study, by apply FAW neonate larvae to whorls of





69

the plants when they reached the 6-8 leaf stage. Plants in

test plot 2 were used at the 10-12 leaf stage.

The A. marmoratus (AM) colony used in the study was

maintained at the USDA Biology and Population Management

Research Laboratory. It had been established in 1981 from

fifth-instar CEW larvae occurring in mid-green tassel stages

of "Silver Queen" sweet corn near Tifton, Georgia, USA.

Additional AM adults, closing from pupae of CEW and FAW

that were collected in southern Georgia and northern

Florida, had been added intermittently to the culture.

Laboratory cultures were maintained on CEW larvae from the

Tifton laboratory colony (Young et al. 1976) reared by the

method of Burton (1969) on corn-soy-milk-solid diet (Burton

1970). AM adults were held in plyboard and screened cages

as described by Gross and Young (1984). They were provided

with sugar cubes and free water from saturated paper towels

in a 1.5 by 10 cm Petri dish during the 10 day pre-

larviposition period. A. marmoratus maggots were extracted

mechanically from fecund females as described by Gross and

Johnson (1985) and suspended in the desired volume of a

0.35% solution of hydroxyethylcellulose (Minidrift)

(Soilserv, Inc., Salinas, California.

The FAW larvae were also obtained from a colony

maintained at the USDA Biology and Population Management

Research Laboratory in Tifton, Georgia. Corn plants at the

6-8 and 10-12 leaf stage were used. Neonate FAW were

applied directly into the whorl using a mechanical larval






70

dispenser developed by Wiseman (Wiseman et al. 1980). FAW

eggs deposited on paper towels were placed in plastic bags

and held at 32oC until hatch. Larvae were removed by

inverting the bags and gently shaking the towel while it

remained in the bag, to dislodge larvae. Corn-cob grits

(grits-o'cobs No. 2040, Anderson's Cob Division, Maumee,

Ohio 43537) were mixed with the FAW larvae in a concentrated

form. The FAW-corn cob grits mixture was shaken and diluted

until about 20 FAW larvae per delivery were obtained. They

were then transported to the field for immediate dispensing

into the whorls.

All plants in both the 6-8 and 10-12 leaf stage of both

MpSWCB-4 and SEG were infested at the same time. The FAW-

grits mixture in the dispensing bottle was thoroughly mixed

and repeatedly agitated during the application process to

ensure standardized delivery of about 20 FAW neonates per

plant. Infestations were made in the morning, after most of

the dew had evaporated (ca. 9:00 am).

After 10 days, freshly prepared AM maggots in a mini

drift suspension were diluted until an eye dropper delivered

larvae at the rate of 25 larvae per drop. One drop of the

maggot suspension was applied directly into the centers of

the whorls of plants in each "test row" for each replicate,

12 plants per row, 10 replicates per variety. Host larvae

(FAW) within the whorl were exposed to AM maggots for 72

hrs, then the FAW were retrieved. The second row of each

replicate for each cultivar was left for rating leaf damage





71

at 14 days. Thirty FAW larvae were collected from each

replicate (1 tray) and placed individually on a modified

pinto bean diet in 30 ml plastic diet cups. Control FAW

larvae were obtained by harvesting 2 plants for each (AM)

untreated row of each replicate.

Larvae collected from the field were placed in Percival

Growth Chambers at 26.0 10 C, 14:10 L:D photoperiod, and

85 5% RH. Emergence of FAW and all parasites was noted,

and percent parasitization calculated. Data were analyzed

by PROC GLM (SAS) and percentage parasitization values were

changed via arcsin transformation prior to analyses (SAS

Institute 1989). Scheffe's method was used (p=0.05) to

separate means (SAS Institute 1989). This method of

separating means is considered to be conservative, and was

selected for that reason.


Results and Discussion

Table 5 lists parasites reared from fall armyworm

larvae collected from Stowell's Evergreen and MpSWCB-4 corn

in Tifton, Georgia during the month of June in 1988 and

1989. The tachinid A. marmoratus was applied after

mechanical extraction from fecund females, at the rate of 25

larvae per plant but all other parasites emerging from the

FAW larvae represent natural infestations.

In 1988, the naturally occurring ichneumonid parasitoid

Ophion flavidus Brulle occurred at much higher rates of

parasitization of FAW, than the artificially applied











TABLE 5. Parasites reared from fall armyworm larvae collected
in Tifton, Georgia, June 1988 and June 1989.



HOST PLANT: Corn

VARIETIES: Stowell's Evergreen and MpSWCB-4


Braconidae
Apanteles sp.
Cotesia marginiventris (Cresson)
Rogas laphygmae Viereck

Eulophidae
Euplectrus comstockii Howard

Ichneumonidae
Ophion flavidus Brulle

Tachinidae
Archytas marmoratus Townsend






73

parasitoid A. marmoratus, (Figure 14). There were higher

rates of parasitization by AM on the resistant variety

(MpSWCB-4) than on the susceptible variety SEG, on both

plots, but the differences were not statistically

significant (p= 0.05). This trend was reversed with Ophion,

which had significantly higher rates of parasitization on

the susceptible variety than on the resistant. It has been

suggested that Ophion may be in direct competition with

Archytas in the field (Gross, 1988). In addition, the FAW

may have been in the more desired developmental stage for

the maggots on the SEG than those on MpSWCB-4 since MpSWCB-4

causes a reduction in growth and development of FAW. There

were no significant differences between MpSWCB-4 and SEG at

the 6-8 leaf stage, when the total number of larvae

parasitized were analyzed. At the 10-12 leaf stage,

however, the differences were significant, and the trend of

parasite occurrence was higher overall on the susceptible

cultivar. Ophion flavidus numbers were higher in the

susceptible cultivar and contributed to making overall

parasitization rates in 1988 highest in SEG (S), (Figure

14).

Ophion flavidus parasitized 20% of FAW larvae collected

from SEG at the 10-12 leaf stage. This was the highest rate

of parasitism found in 1988 for a single parasitoid of FAW

larvae in the study. Archytas marmoratus had a high of 8%.

The highest total percentage parasitism was 31%. This

represented parasitization that occurred for only 3 days,






74

while FAW in the whorl had been exposed to parasitization by

other naturally occurring parasites prior to the application

of AM.

Figure 15 shows the percentage of total parasitization

by the parasitoids in the 1988 field study. Ophion flavidus

was responsible for as much as 73% of total parasitization,

and this occurred at the 10-12 leaf stage on SEG, while the

maximum contribution to total parasitization by AM was 37%

which occurred in plot 2, on MpSWCB-4. Other parasites,

namely Cotesia marginiventris (Cresson), Rogas laphvymae

Viereck, and Apanteles sp. together were responsible for as

much as 30% of parasitism at the 6-8 leaf stage on both SEG

and MpSWCB-4.

In 1989, Ophion was less prevalent than in 1988,

(Figure 16). Levels of parasitization by AM were higher

perhaps due to reduced competition by the absence of Ophion.

Parasitization by AM was highest on the 10-12 leaf stage of

SEG, and lowest on SEG at the 6-8 leaf stage. The trends

observed in 1988, with higher levels of parasitism on

MpSWCB-4 were not consistent in 1989. AM did significantly

better at the 6-8 leaf stage on MpSWCB-4 than on SEG,

parasitizing 13% and 8%, respectively, of FAW larvae. At

the 10-12 leaf stage, AM did better on SEG but not

significantly better.

A. marmoratus was responsible for over 95% of total

parasitism found on SEG at both stages of plant development

and 65-80% of parasitism on MpSWCB-4, Figure 17. The












ow0
0


+4J




0


4JI 0~
> p





a)
V
>





P4 0


00

rW
cl-w



S 4






0
0
-I-u

4JW
.,4 (a t)




a4

a 0
o












00>


r V-

v' >4~C
4-)0 H 0;
M r4-I OD
. 5- O
) 4 -
--4 d~
-rz








Q) 0

0 U0
Q)






(flI 00
Q)







-- Q-' OC I

- 0- ,

00 ; ; 1--4
1 | 0 |
IO


L -+J N 0-
CO -, O
-e- Or L+ O


, 2 (n 2
C> )> (3 ^

BDIIn- n


I I
Pq1\h\\\\ \\\\\\\\\\
i-1, X XX X X X


I c~h XX XXXXXXXN\\


I- I- x


x x


~-EIIIIZI


I I I
0 un 0
t- ro rn)


I I I
nO o in
CM CN -


I I
0 I 0


8861 NI IAISIIISVIVd 3IOVIN33 Id


(n
Q)







0

--
U)




4-
0





co


O



O
-4-J



O

11_


'------------









C A


0 4
r-t









0
a,4

-4
( -










0


o
I-H





XO
IIe
0

O
Ch


.*


c o




r-i


H)
4 C

00
U >
OE


4-

0

..Q


~4J
CO

wU)
w 0



- r. 0
*P ^
'^ "
Q)*4

a
r :
U 0C







Ld
0
LL <
< Co
HOLL

LL<


F- m,-L- ED
o< c
Ld -




LU IQ
E I1 0



cn BCO
uJ Wy


I' '


I---


D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C
D r- co LO u) rq1- n cl -

A'SISVdVd IViOi JO 433VIN30]3ld


I










4)

4)
0



rt
14



0
0


4-I



a
0




0



00%

OD
AS






0



440
0

0
00
.,-4 4.J
4.) 4-4
P









0-41
ra\




4E
.5-4

U)





410
4-)0





04
oP
a)




U)


rZ40










0
41 -
S(nQ)


O' 0
C-'c04-



I 1 0
CI)
Q) -4 -N -'




CD O)





BIBI
w -
EEJ I


I _____


~-EZ:


696 NI V~SIIISVdVd 3OVlN33I3d


Q)
0



0
a)
-
ot-
a,


!


I--


~-----


i--









4 MH



0
4J-H


0440
r4
o.
OC.
u..




0




4)

fl "

, 4




OU
oG
O






IV 0



Oc
-4


.4


04


0 cE
CP




(C$4
s <
^ -'
*p &
C M








,
c O
* 0c
ua
oa
*>-
vl
















Cn I c
0 0-
(Q C) Q)

-4-00 -

C l)
N- CDN






-o o
So 1


1 cn oa
0 C) 0(/


c I I I
D o r- cO


I I I 1 I
0 O 0 0 0
Ln ,4- rN C r-


IISIISVdVd IVIOI JO 3OVIN33IO3d


Q)
0)



C-
0





0

c-
o


CO
0
cr


0
oU
0)
-L

0
CL
a_


L;-


I I
I\~\\~\~\~,\\~,~\\~,~\;~,\~,\~,-~
~F-----------
c~;\~;;~CCC~-;~,~,~C~7\~T


!


I i i I






83

highest level of parasitism by Ophion in 1989 was 11%,

attained from FAW on MpSWCB-4 at the 10-12 leaf stage.

Compatibility of AM with the resistant corn variety

MpSWCB-4 is important. Performance of AM against FAW was

not significantly reduced at any time. In 1988 AM performed

consistently better on MpSWCB-4 than on SEG (but

statistically not significant). There can be a number of

explanations for the observed trend of improved performance

of AM on MpSWCB-4. AM maggots are not mobile. When applied

to the whorl, FAW larvae moving within the whorl due to non-

preference factors of resistance permit AM larvae

opportunity to parasitize FAW more easily than if the

resistance in the plants were not manifested. Thus as the

FAW larvae move more within the whorl of the resistant corn,

MpSWCB-4, than in the susceptible SEG, there is an increased

probability of attack by AM.

Rohlfs and Mack (1985) reported from field studies in

Alabama that AM was recovered from all sizes of FAW larvae

and the frequency of parasitism of large larvae was not

significantly greater than for small larvae during a 2-yr

period. They found that rates of adult emergence of the

competitor parasitoid 0. flavidus generally exceeded those

of AM by about 2-fold, but did not differ significantly

among the FAW larval developmental stages evaluated.

Furthermore, they added that 0. flavidus oviposited in FAW

larvae of all sizes, but large larvae were most frequently

parasitized.






84

Ophion and other parasitoids prevalent in 1988, were

less common in 1989. Rates of parasitism by Ophion were

approximately 2-fold higher than A. marmoratus in 1988,

while this was not the case in 1989. Archytas parasitized

20% of FAW larvae collected from SEG, at the 10-12 leaf

stage, while Ophion had its highest level of attack (11%) on

FAW on the 10-12 leaf stage of MpSWCB-4. The results of

this study indicate that both A. marmoratus and 0. flavidus

are capable of impacting populations of fall armyworm in

whorl stage corn. This study further indicates that the use

of the resistant corn cultivar MpSWCB-4 may enhance their

performance. There is the possibility that the use of a

resistant cultivar, such as MpSWCB-4, against the FAW which

has both non-preference and antibiotic mechanisms of

resistance could be antagonistic to enhancement of

biocontrol agents that attack later larval instars such as

AM or Ophion. Results of this study indicate compatibility

of the resistant cultivar and AM. Nonpreference factors may

stimulate the FAW to move about within the whorl, while

antibiosis tends to retard growth and development. A delay

in FAW development may not coincide with the most

susceptible stage of the larvae for parasitism as compared

to FAW developing at a faster rate on SEG. For parasites

that attack eggs or small larvae, the use of nonpreference

and antibiotic resistance such as that manifested by MpSWCB-

4 would be more compatible in combining these two control

tactics.












CHAPTER IV

CONSUMPTION, DEVELOPMENT AND FECUNDITY OF FALL ARMYWORM ON
STOWELL'S EVERGREEN A SUSCEPTIBLE CORN CULTIVAR AND
MpSWCB-4 A RESISTANT CULTIVAR AS AFFECTED
BY THE PARASITOID ARCHYTAS MARMORATUS

Slansky (1986) reviewed the impact of insect

parasitoids on the physiology and behavior of their hosts

within the context of the nutritional ecology of parasitoids

and their hosts. An insect host such as the FAW becomes the

living space for parasitoids and active defensive responses

against parasitoids occur at both behavioral and

physiological levels. Nutrient composition of the host

hemolymph (e.g., amino acids, proteins and carbohydrates)

and fat body (e.g., glycogen) are often altered after

parasitization, as are host hormones and metabolic rates

(Vinson and Iwantsch 1980).

Slansky (1986) stated "because the genetic fitness of a

parasitoid within a host is directly dependent on host

activities, natural selection will undoubtedly commonly

result in evolution of parasitoid-influenced changes in host

physiology and behavior that improve the parasitoids

fitness". Also mentioned is the fact that if sufficient

nutrients for complete parasitoid development are lacking,

then continued feeding by the host will be permitted and

perhaps stimulated above the unparasitized level by the




Full Text

PAGE 2

,17(5$&7,216 2) 5(6,67$17 &251 &8/7,9$56 632'237(5$ )58*,3(5'$ -( 60,7+f $1' $5&+<7$6 0$5025$786 72:16(1'f %\ 0$8'( ) &+5,67,$10(,(5 $ ',66(57$7,21 35(6(17(' 72 7+( *5$'8$7( 6&+22/ 2) 7+( 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$ ,1 3$57,$/ )8/),//0(17 2) 7+( 5(48,5(0(176 )25 7+( '(*5(( 2) '2&725 2) 3+,/2623+< 81,9(56,7< &) )/25,'$ /,%5$5,(6 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 3

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

PAGE 4

KLV FRQWLQXDO VXSSRUW 'U
PAGE 5

7$%/( 2) &217(176 3DJH $&.12:/('*(0(176 LL /,67 2) 7$%/(6 YL /,67 2) ),*85(6 YLLL $%675$&7 [L &+$37(5 ,1752'8&7,21 %LRORJ\ DQG /LIH &\FOH RI WKH )DOO $UP\ZRUP +RVW 3ODQW 5HVLVWDQFH &KHPLFDO &RQWURO 7ULWURSKLF ,QWHUDFWLRQV ,, &2168037,21 '(9(/230(17 $1' )(&81',7< 2) )$: 21 ',(76 &217$,1,1* 6,/.6 2) 7+( 5(6,67$17 &251 &8/7,9$5 n=$3$/27( &+,&2n ,QWURGXFWLRQ 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 5HVXOWV DQG 'LVFXVVLRQ *HQHUDO 'LVFXVVLRQ ,,, ),(/' 3(5)250$1&( 2) $5&+<7$6 0$5025$786 $*$,167 )$// $50<:250 632'237(5$ )58*,3(5'$ 21 672:(//n6 (9(5*5((1 $1' 0S6:&% ,QWURGXFWLRQ 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 5HVXOWV DQG 'LVFXVVLRQ ,9

PAGE 6

,9 &2168037,21 '(9(/230(17 $1' )(&81',7< 2) )$// $50<:250 21 672:(//n6 (9(5*5((1 $1' 0S6:&% $6 $))(&7(' %< $5&+<7$6 0$5025$786 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 5HVXOWV DQG 'LVFXVVLRQ 9 ())(&7 2) 5(6,67$17 $1' 686&(37,%/( &251 &8/7,9$56 21 0,&52620$/ 02122;<*(1$6(6 $1' ,16(&7,&,'( 686&(37,%,/,7< 2) 7+( )$// $50<:250 'HVFULSWLRQ RI 0LFURVRPDO 0RQRR[\JHQDVHV 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 5HVXOWV DQG 'LVFXVVLRQ 9, 6800$5< $1' &21&/86,216 5()(5(1&(6 &,7(' $33(1',; %,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ 9

PAGE 7

/,67 2) 7$%/(6 7DEOH 'HYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV RI )$: WK DQG WK ODUYDO LQVWDUV IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQn WDLQLQJ VLONV RI D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ )LIWK LQVWDU WLOO SXSDWLRQ IHHGLQJ HIILn FLHQFLHV DQG UHODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG JURZWKV UDWHV IRU IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR 5f DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6f 'HYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV &RQVXPSWLRQ JURZWK DQG ELRPDVVfRI WK LQVWDU IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQn LQJ VLONV RI D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOn WLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ KUVf 5DWHV RI FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV RI JURZWK DQG HIILFLHQF\ RI FRQYHUVLRQ RI LQJHVWHG IRRG IRU WK LQVWDU )$: ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ KUVf 3DUDVLWHV UHDUHG IURP IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH FROOHFWHG LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD -XQH DQG -XQH YL 3DJH

PAGE 8

$O $ $ 'HYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP WK LQVWDU ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ OHDYHV RI D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUn JUHHQf DQG D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU 0S6:&%f 'HYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP WK LQVWDU ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ OHDYHV RI D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUn JUHHQf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f DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf 7R[LFLW\ RI LQVHFWLFLGHV DSSOLHG WRSLFDOO\ WR WKH )DOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ D VXVFHSn WLEOH DQG UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDUV 3DUDPHWHUV IRU GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI SHUIRUPDQFH YDOXHV /DUYDO GXUDWLRQ DQG PRUWDOLW\ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 0HDQ QXPEHU RI HJJV ODLG E\ IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHW &.f DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI YLL

PAGE 9

6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU $ 0HDQ SHUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUD\ZRUP ODUYDH RQ ZKRUO VWDJH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ 0S6:&%f DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf E\ $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD $ 0HDQ SHUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH RQ ZKRUO VWDJH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ 0S6:&%f DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf E\ 2SKLRQ IODYLGXV LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD $ 0HDQ SHUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH RQ ZKRUO VWDJH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ 0S6:&%f DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf E\ RWKHU SDUDVLWHV DQG WRWDO SHUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD $f§ 0HDQ SXSDO ZHLJKWV DQG HJJV ODLG E\ IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ ZKRUO VWDJH UHVLVWDQW 0S6:&%f DQG VXVFHSWLEOH 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHHQf FRUQ YLLL

PAGE 10

)LJXUH /,67 2) ),*85(6 3DJH /DUYDO GXUDWLRQ IRU IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ D FKHFN &.f SLQWR EHDQ GLHW DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOn WLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\ 'HYHORSPHQWDO WLPH IRU IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDO LQVWDUV WR SXSDWLRQ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\ )UHVK ZHLJKWV PJf RI QHZO\ PROWHG IDOO DUP\ZRUP WK LQVWDU ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ D FKHFN &.f SLQWR EHDQ GLHW DQG GLHWV FRQn WDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*fD VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& =& J J J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\ 3HUFHQW GU\ ZHLJKW RI WK LQVWDU IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ D FKHFN &.f SLQWR EHDQ GLHW DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f VXVFHSn WLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\ 3XSDO IUHVK ZHLJKWV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ D SLQWR EHDQ GLHW &.f DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG L[

PAGE 11

=&2 J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\ 3XSDO GU\ ZHLJKWV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ D PHULGLF SLQWR EHDQ GLHW FNf DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ 6f DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\ 3HUFHQWDJH GU\ ZHLJKW RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHWV FRQn WDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6f DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR 5f FRUQ =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\ 0HDQ QXPEHU RI HJJV ODLG E\ IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHW &.f DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSn WLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\ &DOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH IRU WK LQVWDU IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHHGLQJ RQ D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHW (VWLPDWHG UHJUHVVLRQ OLQH IRU UHODWLYH JURZWK UDWH 5*5f DJDLQVW UHODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH 5&5f IRU KRXU IHHGLQJ &DOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH IRU IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHHGLQJ RQ D PHULGLF GLHW ZLWK SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV DJDLQVW FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV IRU ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ J HDFK RI VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ &DOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH IRU )$: IHHGLQJ RQ D PHULGLF GLHW ZLWK SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV DJDLQVW FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV IRU ODUYDH IHHG

PAGE 12

LQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ J DQG J RI =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ VLONV &DOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH IRU IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHHGn LQJ RQ D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHW ZLWK SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV 5*5fP DJDLQVW FRQn VXPSWLRQ UDWH 5&5f IRU ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ WHVW GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI UHVLVWDQW DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDUV J RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ VLON DQG J J DQG J RI =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ VLONVf 7KH NLQGV RI LQWHUDFWLRQV GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW LQ D W\SLFDO IRRG ZHE VKRZLQJ WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ LQWULQVLF DQG H[WULQVLF GHIHQVH RI SODQWV DQG WKH WUDGHn RIIV EHWZHHQ WKHP LQGLFDWH SRVLWLYH QHJDWLYH RU QRHIIHFWV WKH SODQW PD\ LPSDFW RQ WKH KHUELYRUHQDWXUDO HQHP\ UHODWLRQVKLS )URP 3ULFH f 3HUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ DUWLILFLDOO\ DSSOLHG $UFKYWDV PRUPRUDWXV 2SKLRQ IODYLGXV DQG RWKHU SDUDVLWLHV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP FROOHFWHG IURP D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV HYHUJUHHQ DQG D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU 0S6:&% LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD 3HUFHQWDJHV RI WRWDO SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI )$: FROOHFWHG IURP 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6f DQG 0S6:&% 5f FRUQ LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD 3HUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP FROOHFWHG IURP 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6f DQG 0S6:&% 5f FRUQ SORWV LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD 3HUFHQWDJHV RI WRWDO SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH FROOHFWHG IURP 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ VXVFHSWLEOHf FRUQ DQG 0S6:&% UHVLVWDQWf FRUQ LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD )UHVK ZHLJKW DQG GU\ ZHLJKW RI SXSDH RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ OHDYHV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDUf DQG 0S6:&% FRUQ UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDUf 0HDQ QXPEHU RI HJJV ODLG E\ IDOO DUP\ZRUP

PAGE 13

IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ OHDYHV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDUf DQG 0S6:&% FRUQ UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDUf )UHVK ZHLJKWV RI WK LQVWDU IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH SDUDVLWL]HG E\ $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV DQG XQSDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH 6FKHPDWLF UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH F\WRFKURPH 3GHSHQGHQW PLFURVRPDO 0)2 V\VWHP [LL

PAGE 14

$EVWUDFW RI 'LVVHUWDWLRQ 3UHVHQWHG WR WKH *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO RI WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD LQ 3DUWLDO )XOILOOPHQW RI WKH 5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH 'HJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ ,17(5$&7,216 2) 5(6,67$17 &251 &8/7,9$56 632'237(5$ )58*,3(5'$ -( 60,7+f $1' $5&+<7$6 0$5025$786 72:16(1'f %\ 0$8'( &+5,67,$10(,(5 $XJXVW &KDLUSHUVRQ &DUO 6 %DUILHOG &RFKDLUSHUVRQ *DU\ 5 %XFNLQJKDP 0DMRU 'HSDUWPHQW (QWRPRORJ\ DQG 1HPDWRORJ\ 0HDVXUHV RI FRQVXPSWLRQ GHYHORSPHQW DQG IHFXQGLW\ RI 6SRGRRWHUD IUXTLSHUGD -( 6PLWKf ZHUH REWDLQHG RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI WKH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU n=DSDORWH &KLFRn )LHOG SHUIRUPDQFH RI $UFK\WDV PDUPRUDWXV 7RZQVHQG DJDLQVW 6 IUXTLSHUGD LQ ZKRUOV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDUf DQG 0S6:&% UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDUf ZDV LQYHVWLJDWHG (IIHFWV RI UHVLVWDQW DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDUV RQ WKH GHWR[LFDWLRQ HQ]\PH DOGULQ HSR[LGDVH DQG LQVHFWLFLGH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RI 6 IUXTLSHUGD WR WKUHH FODVVHV RI LQVHFWLFLGHV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG 'LHWV FRQWDLQLQJ = &KLFR FRUQ VLONV LQKLELWHG JURZWK RI 6 IUXTLSHUGD ODUYDH 3XSDO ZHLJKW DQG IHFXQGLW\ ZHUH UHGXFHG DV = &KLFR VLON FRQWHQW RI WKH GLHW ZDV LQFUHDVHG 7KHUH ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW LQFUHDVH LQ ODUYDO GHYHORSPHQWDO [LLL

PAGE 15

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nV SHUIRUPDQFH 3HUIRUPDQFH RI $ PDUPRUDWXV ZDV QRW DIIHFWHG DGYHUVHO\ E\ 6 IUXTLSHUGD IHHGLQJ RQ WKH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU 'HWR[LFDWLRQ HQ]\PH OHYHOV LQFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\ ZKHQ ODUYDH ZHUH UHDUHG RQ 0S6:&% FRPSDUHG WR WKRVH UHDUHG RQ 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ = &KLFR VLON GLHWV FDXVHG LQKLELWLRQ RI WKH GHWR[LFDWLRQ HQ]\PH 5HODWLYH SRWHQF\ RI WKUHH LQVHFWLFLGH FODVVHV WRZDUG 6 IUXTLSHUGD ZDV S\UHWKURLG FDUEDPDWH RUJDQRSKRVSKDWH 6 IUXTLSHUGD UHDUHG RQ WKH VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU ZHUH PRUH VXVFHSWLEOH WR PHWKRP\O DQG ELIHQWKULQ ZLWK /'nV RI XJJ ODUYD DQG XJJ ODUYD UHVSHFWLYHO\ WKDQ ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ 0S6:&% ZLWK /'nV RI XJJ ODUYD DQG XJJ ODUYD UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH RUJDQRSKRVSKDWH FKORUS\ULIRV ZDV PRUH WR[LF WR ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ 0S6:&% WKDQ ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ [LY

PAGE 16

7KLV ZRUN LV GHGLFDWHG WR P\ SDUHQWV 'U DQG 0UV ) &KULVWLDQ 6U P\ EURWKHUV 'U ) &KULVWLDQ -U DQG ( &KULVWLDQ P\ QLHFHV DQG QHSKHZV P\ KXVEDQG +HQU\ 0HLHU FKLOGUHQ )HUQDQGD -DFN $QWKHD DQG 5DFKHO

PAGE 17

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f 7KH DERYH VWDWHPHQW KROGV WUXH IRU WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI WKH IDOO DUP\ZRUP )$:f 6SRGRSWHUD IUXRLSHUGD -( 6PLWKf >/HSLGRSWHUD 1RFWXLGDH@ RQ FRUQ =HD PD\V /f LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 7KH PRUH WKDW LV XQGHUVWRRG DERXW WKH SHVW UHJDUGLQJ LWV HFRORJ\ ELRORJ\ QDWXUDO HQHPLHV ELRFKHPLVWU\ HWF WKH EHWWHU WKH FKDQFH RI NQRZLQJ WKH UDPLILFDWLRQV RI D FRQWURO PHWKRG DQG VXFFHVVIXOO\ FRQWUROOLQJ WKH SHVW 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKLV SURMHFW ZDV WR LQYHVWLJDWH VRPH LQVHFWSODQW LQWHUDFWLRQV DPRQJ )$: DQG WZR UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDUV RI FRUQ =DSDORWH &KLFR =&f DQG 0S6:&% 3ODQW UHVLVWDQFH WR )$: ZDV UHYLHZHG E\ :LVHPDQ DQG 'DYLV f 6LQFH WKHQ VRXUFHV RI UHVLVWDQFH WR )$: KDYH

PAGE 18

EHHQ IRXQG LQ =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG 0S6:&% FRUQ $Q DWWHPSW ZDV PDGH LQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ WR HYDOXDWH WKH FRPSDWLELOLW\ RI WKH UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU 0S6:&% DQG D )$: QDWXUDO HQHP\ $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV 7RZQVHQGf >'LSWHUD 7DFKLQLGDH@ LQ PXOWLWDFWLF FRQWURO RI )$: 7KH HIIHFW RI )$: IHHGLQJ RQ WKH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDUV =& DQG 0S6:&% DQG RQ D GHWR[LILFDWLRQ HQ]\PH DQG VXEVHTXHQW LQVHFWLFLGH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RI )$: ZDV VWXGLHG ,QWHJUDWHG SHVW PDQDJHPHQW ,30f SULQFLSOHV VHUYH DV JXLGHOLQHV LQ HIIRUWV WR PDQDJH LQVHFW SHVWV VHH %DUILHOG DQG 2n1HLO %RWWUHOO f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

PAGE 19

OLNHO\ WR UHVXOW LQ QHJDWLYH HIIHFWV ZLWKLQ WKH V\VWHP EHLQJ PDQDJHG $1 ,17(5',6&,3/,1$5< 6<67(06 $3352$&+ ,6 (66(17,$/ 7KH DVVXPSWLRQ LV WKDW LQIRUPDWLRQ FROOHFWHG E\ YDULRXV VFLHQWLVWV FDQ DQG ZLOO EH LQWHJUDWHG 9HUEDWLP IURP %DUILHOG DQG 2n1HLO S f 7KH SUHVHQW SURMHFW ZDV XQGHUWDNHQ DV DQ DWWHPSW WR PDNH D FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI )$: LQ FRUQ RQH RI WKH ZRUOGnV PRVW ZLGHO\ GLVWULEXWHG IRRG SODQWV DQG WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW FURS LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 7KH )DOO $UP\ZRUP 7KH IDOO DUP\ZRUP )$:f 6RRGRRWHUD IUXJLSHUGD -( 6PLWKf LV RQH RI WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW SHVWV RI FRUQ LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ,W LV SRO\SKDJRXV PRELOH DQG DQQXDOO\ DWWDFNV FRUQ DQG RWKHU FURSV HVSHFLDOO\ JUDPLQHRXV VSHFLHV WKURXJKRXW WKH VRXWKHDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV )$: SRSXODWLRQV FDQ EH IRXQG GXULQJ WKH HQWLUH \HDU LQ VRXWK )ORULGD DQG 7H[DV WKLV SHVW PLJUDWHV IURP WKHVH DUHDV LQWR XQLQIHVWHG UHJLRQV IDUWKHU QRUWK HDFK VSULQJ 5DEE DQG .HQQHG\ f /XJLQELOO f OLVWV PRUH WKDQ KRVW SODQW VSHFLHV IRU )$: EXW VWDWHV WKDW WKH ODUYDH ZRXOG SUREDEO\ FRQILQH WKHLU IHHGLQJ WR FRUQ =HD PD\V /f VRUJKXP 6RUJKXP ELFRORU /ff DQG JUDVVHV VXFK DV %HUPXGDJUDVV &YQRGRQ GDFWYORQ /ff LI WKRVH SODQWV ZHUH DYDLODEOH &RUQ SUHVHQWO\ LV

PAGE 20

LPSOLFDWHG .HQQHG\ DQG 0DUJROLHV :LVHPDQ f DV WKH FURS WKDW FRQWULEXWHV GHYDVWDWLQJ QXPEHUV RI WKHVH PLJUDWRU\ PRWKV WR LQIHVW RWKHU PDMRU DJURQRPLF FURSV 6SDUNV f UHYLHZHG WKH OLIH F\FOH RI )$: $GXOW )$: DUH QRFWXUQDO 7KH\ PRYH WRZDUG KRVW SODQWV VXLWDEOH IRU IHHGLQJ DQG RYLSRVLWLRQ DW GXVN (JJV DUH ODLG LQ FOXVWHUV DQG SURWHFWHG E\ D GHQVH FRYHULQJ RI VFDOHV 0DVVHV FRQWDLQ IURP D IHZ WR KXQGUHGV RI HJJV ZKLFK KDWFK LQ GD\V DW WHPSHUDWXUHV DURXQG r& /DUYDH FRQVXPH HJJ VKHOOV DV WKH\ KDWFK DQG IHHG RQ KRVW SODQWV XQWLO FRPSOHWLRQ RI LQVWDUV 7KH VL[WK LQVWDU GURSV WR WKH JURXQG DQG SXSDWHV LQ WKH VRLO DW D GHSWK RI DERXW FP GHSHQGLQJ RQ VRLO WH[WXUH PRLVWXUH DQG WHPSHUDWXUH 7KH ILUVW LQVWDUV DUH VPDOO DQG UHTXLUH OHVV WKDQ b RI WKH WRWDO IROLDJH FRQVXPHG 7KH OLIH F\FOH UHTXLUHV DERXW GD\V DW r) %DUILHOG HW DO f -XQH$XJXVWf WKURXJKRXW WKH VRXWKHDVWHUQ 86 DQG DURXQG WKH *XOI &RDVW VWDWHV $W FROGHU WHPSHUDWXUHV D )$: JHQHUDWLRQ PD\ WDNH GD\V )$: GRHV QRW GLDSDXVH DQG WKHUHIRUH LWV JHRJUDSKLFDO UDQJH LQ WKH 86 LQ ZLQWHU LV UHGXFHG WR VRXWK )ORULGD DQG WKH VRXWKHUQ FRDVWDO DUHDV RI *HRUJLD $ODEDPD 0LVVLVVLSSL /RXLVLDQD DQG 7H[DV +LQGV DQG 'HZ f ,Q HDUO\ VSULQJ )$: SRSXODWLRQV EHJLQ WR VSUHDG QRUWKZDUG DQG ZHVWZDUG ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWLQHQWDO 86 DW UDWHV HVWLPDWHG LQ VRPH \HDUV WR EH DERXW PLOHV SHU JHQHUDWLRQ 6RXWKHUO\ ZLQGV DUH EHOLHYHG WR EH DQ LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU LQ WKLV DQQXDO GLVSHUVDO

PAGE 21

6LQJOH \HDU ORVV HVWLPDWHV GXH WR )$: LQ WKH VRXWKHDVWHUQ 86 KDYH UDQJHG EHWZHHQ DQG PLOOLRQ 6SDUNV f 3LWUH f LQGLFDWHV WKDW )$: SRSXODWLRQV LQ WKH VRXWKHDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DUH UHVLVWDQW WR FDUEDU\O >6HYLQp@ PHWK\O SDUDWKLRQ >0HWDFLGHp@ WULFKORUIRQ >'\OR[p@ DQG GLD]LQRQ >6SHFWUDFLGHp@ 0HWKRP\O >/DQQDWHp@ VHHPHG WR EH HIIHFWLYH LQ DOO DUHDV EXW VXVFHSWLELOLW\ LQ )ORULGD ZDV GHFOLQLQJ 7DFWLFV VXFK DV FKHPLJDWLRQ WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI LQVHFWLFLGHV WKURXJK LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHUf DV RSSRVHG WR DHULDO EURDGFDVWLQJ DQG WKH XVH RI V\QWKHWLF S\UHWKURLGV DUH QHZ PHWKRGV EHLQJ DGRSWHG WR LPSURYH WKH HIILFLHQF\ RI FKHPLFDO FRQWURO RI )$: $V QXPHURXV DWWHPSWV DW )$: FRQWURO IDLO D IHDVLEOH DOWHUQDWLYH PDQDJHPHQW VWUDWHJ\ LV VRXJKW 5HVLVWDQW KRVW SODQWV DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV DUH FRQVLGHUHG WR EH SUHPLHU DOWHUQDWLYHV WR FKHPLFDO FRQWURO $ VLQJOH WDFWLF HJ FKHPLFDO FRQWUROf RU D FRPELQDWLRQ RI WDFWLFV HJ UHVLVWDQW YDULHWLHV DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV WRJHWKHUf PD\ EH DGRSWHG LQ DQ DWWHPSW WR PDQDJH )$: RQ FRUQ 'HSHQGHQFH RQ FKHPLFDOV DORQH KLVWRULFDOO\ OHDGV WR UHVLVWDQFH UHVXUJHQFH DQG DGYHUVH HIIHFWV RQ QRQWDUJHW RUJDQLVPV DPRQJ RWKHU SUREOHPV (DFK \HDU LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV GHVSLWH WKH XVH RI DOO SHVWLFLGHV DQG RWKHU FRQWUROV SHVWV GHVWUR\ DERXW b RI DOO SRWHQWLDO FURSV 3LPHQWDO HW DO f 6ROH GHSHQGHQFH RQ FKHPLFDO FRQWURO LV QRW D VXVWDLQDEOH VWUDWHJ\ IRU SHVW FRQWURO

PAGE 22

5HVLVWDQW YDULHWLHV DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG DUH VXVWDLQDEOH VWUDWHJLHV WKDW GR QRW SRVH DQ\ RI WKH DERYHPHQWLRQHG SUREOHPV 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH QXWULWLRQDO HFRORJ\ RI WKH )$: RQ D KRVW SODQW DQG KRZ WKLV PLJKW LPSLQJH RQ QDWXUDO HQHPLHV RU DIIHFW WKH HIILFDF\ RI SHVWLFLGHV LV XVHIXO LQ GHVLJQLQJ SHVW FRQWURO VWUDWHJLHV 7ULWURSKLF LQWHUDFWLRQV RFFXU DPRQJ FRUQ WKH SULPDU\ SURGXFHUf )$: WKH FRQVXPHUf DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV DW WKH WKLUG WURSKLF OHYHO 7KH UROH RI UHVLVWDQW KRVW SODQWV RQ )$: IHHGLQJ QDWXUDO HQHP\ DWWDFN RI )$: DQG LQVHFWLFLGH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RI )$: ZLOO EH GLVFXVVHG +RVW 3ODQW 5HVLVWDQFH DQG 1DWXUDO (QHPLHV 3DLQWHU Sf GHILQHG SODQW UHVLVWDQFH WR LQVHFWV DV WKH UHODWLYH DPRXQW RI KHULWDEOH TXDOLWLHV SRVVHVVHG E\ WKH SODQW ZKLFK LQIOXHQFH WKH XOWLPDWH GHJUHH RI GDPDJH GRQH E\ WKH LQVHFW +H DOVR SRLQWV RXW WKDW LQ RUGHU WR EH D XVHIXO FKDUDFWHU UHVLVWDQFH PXVW EH LQKHULWHG 5HVLVWDQFH LV UHODWLYH DQG YDULRXV GHJUHHV RI UHVLVWDQFH FDQ EH UHFRJQL]HG HJ LPPXQLW\ KLJK UHVLVWDQFH ORZ UHVLVWDQFHf 7KH PHFKDQLVPV JHQHUDOO\ DFFHSWHG DQG XVHG IUHTXHQWO\ E\ HQWRPRORJLVWV VWXG\LQJ SODQW UHVLVWDQFH WR LQVHFWV DUH WKRVH SURSRVHG E\ 3DLQWHU f QRQSUHIHUHQFH DQWLELRVLV DQG WROHUDQFH 7KHVH WKUHH PHFKDQLVPV PD\ EH RI D SK\VLFDO RU FKHPLFDO QDWXUH DQG WKHUH DUH PDQ\ IDFWRUV WKDW nFRQGLWLRQn DOO RI WKH PHFKDQLVPV f KRZ WKH LQVHFW XWLOL]HV WKH SODQW RU SODQW

PAGE 23

SDUWV IRU IRRG VKHOWHU RU RYLSRVLWLRQ f ZKHWKHU DGXOWV DQG ODUYDH XVH WKH VDPH SODQW IRU IRRG f IHDWXUHV RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW VXFK DV WHPSHUDWXUH DQG PDQ\ RWKHUV $ UHYLHZ RI WKH VWDWHRIWKHDUW RI SODQW UHVLVWDQFH WR )$: ZDV SUHVHQWHG E\ :LVHPDQ DQG 'DYLV f 7KH PHFKDQLVPV RI UHVLVWDQFH FDQ KDYH D GLUHFW HIIHFW RQ WKH IHHGLQJ EHKDYLRU RI DQ LQVHFW SHVW $QWLELRVLV LQFOXGHV WKRVH DGYHUVH HIIHFWV RQ WKH LQVHFWnV OLIH KLVWRU\ ZKLFK UHVXOW ZKHQ D UHVLVWDQW YDULHW\ LV XVHG IRU IRRG 3DLQWHU f 0HDVXUHG HIIHFWV RI UHVLVWDQFH PD\ EH LQ WKH IRUP RI GHDWK LQ WKH HDUO\ LQVWDUV VPDOO VL]H RU ORZ ZHLJKW DEQRUPDO ORQJHYLW\ ORZ IRRG UHVHUYHV UHGXFHG IHFXQGLW\ GHDWK LQ WKH SUHSXSDO VWDJH DQG DEQRUPDO EHKDYLRU 2ZHQV f $ UHVLVWDQW YDULHW\ PD\ SRVVHVV DGHTXDWH IRRG VXSSO\ DQG SURYLGH DOO QHFHVVDU\ QXWULHQWV ZKLOH D VXVFHSWLEOH YDULHW\ PD\ EH ODFNLQJ LQ D QHFHVVDU\ GLHW VXEVWDQFH $Q LQVHFW PD\ WKHUHIRUH JRUJH LWVHOI GHVWUR\LQJ RU FRQVXPLQJ WKH VXVFHSWLEOH KRVW SODQW WR PHHW LWV GLHWDU\ QHHGV 7KLV VWDWHPHQW LV VRPHZKDW FRXQWHUn LQWXLWLYH EXW H[SODLQV WR DQ H[WHQW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV IRU LQVHFWV IHHGLQJ RQ UHVLVWDQW YHUVXV VXVFHSWLEOH YDULHWLHV RI SODQWV )XUWKHUPRUH D UHVLVWDQW YDULHW\ PD\ ODFN VRPH TXDOLWLHV ZKLFK SURYLGH WKH DWWUDFWLYH VWLPXOXV LQ VXVFHSWLEOH YDULHWLHV DQG UHVLVWDQW YDULHWLHV PD\ SRVVHVV UHSHOODQW TXDOLWLHV ZKLFK FDQ FRPSHWH ZLWK RU PDVN DQ DWWUDFWDQW :LVHPDQ HW DO f :LVHPDQ HW DO f VWDWH WKDW WKHVH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV PDNH SODQW

PAGE 24

UHVLVWDQFH WR LQVHFWV WKH PRVW XVHIXO RI DOO LQWHJUDWHG FRQWUROV :LVHPDQ f UHYLHZV WKH PHFKDQLVPV DQG W\SHV RI SODQW UHVLVWDQFH 6HYHUDO FRUQ JHQRW\SHV KDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG DV KDYLQJ UHVLVWDQFH WR WKH )$: :LVHPDQ HW DO :LOOLDPV HW DO f n=DSDORWH &KLFRn 3&f LV D GHQW FRUQ UHVLVWDQW WR VLON DQG HDU IHHGLQJ LQ WKH ILHOG $ GHQW FRUQ LV WKH FRPPHUFLDO FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI FRUQ FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ D GHSUHVVLRQ LQ WKH FURZQ RI WKH NHUQHO FDXVHG E\ XQHTXDO GU\LQJ RI WKH KDUG DQG VRIW VWDUFK PDNLQJ XS WKH NHUQHO 6RPH RI WKH KLJKHVW OHYHOV RI UHVLVWDQFH NQRZQ LQ FRUQ KDYH EHHQ IRXQG LQ WKH VLONV RI n=DSDORWH &KLFRn =&f FRUQ 6WUDXE DQG )DLUFKLOG :LVHPDQ HW DO f ,QYHVWLJDWLRQ LQWR WKH IHHGLQJ DQG GHYHORSPHQWDO UHVSRQVHV ZKLFK ZLOO GHILQH WKH SK\WRFKHPLFDO QDWXUH RI WKH UHVLVWDQFH KDV EHHQ DWWHPSWHG :LVHPDQ HW DO f GHYHORSHG DQG XVHG D ODERUDWRU\ ELRDVVD\ WR HYDOXDWH IHHGLQJ UHVSRQVHV RI )$: WR =& :LVHPDQ DQG :LGVWURP f UHSRUWHG WKH PHFKDQLVPV RI UHVLVWDQFH RI =& FRUQ VLONV WR )$: ODUYDH LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW DQWLELRWLF IDFWRUV SUHVHQW LQ WKH VLONV UHVXOW LQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI VPDOO ODUYDH VPDOO SXSDH DQG ORQJHU OLIH F\FOH FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKRVH IHG VLONV RI WKH VXVFHSWLEOH VZHHW FRUQ n6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQn $Q DWWHPSW ZDV PDGH WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH HIIHFW RI WKH UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU n=DSDORWH &KLFRn RQ )$: IHHGLQJ JURZWK GHYHORSPHQW DQG IHFXQGLW\ %LRORJLFDO FRQWURO DEEUHYLDWHG ELRFRQWURO LQYROYHV LPSRUWDWLRQ FRQVHUYDWLRQ DQGRU HQFRXUDJHPHQW RI

PAGE 25

SDUDVLWHV SDUDVLWRLGV DQG SUHGDWRUV WR UHGXFH SHVW GHQVLWLHV WR D OHYHO EHORZ WKH HFRQRPLF LQMXU\ OHYHO DQG LGHDOO\f PDLQWDLQ WKHP WKHUH $SSOLHG ELRFRQWURO LPSOLHV DFWLYH LQWHUYHQWLRQ ZLWK ELRWLF FRPSRQHQWV RI DJURHFRV\VWHPV +RUQ f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f 'LSWHUD 7DFKLQLGDHf LQ WKH ILHOG $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV $0f LV D SULPDU\ ODUYLSRURXV ODUYDOSXSDO SDUDVLWRLG RI )$: DQG RWKHU QRFWXLGV LQ 1RUWK DQG 6RXWK $PHULFD DQG LQ WKH :HVW ,QGLHV 6DEURVN\ $VKOH\ f )LQGLQJV E\ *URVV HW DO f DQG 3DLU HW DO Df IURP FROOHFWLRQV RI WK DQG WK LQVWDUV RI WKH FRUQ HDUZRUP +HOLFRYHUSD ]HD %RGGLHf DQG )$: ODUYDH RQ FRUQ UHYHDOHG WKDW $0 LV D PDMRU SDUDVLWRLG RI WKHVH VSHFLHV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ VRXWK *HRUJLD DQG QRUWK )ORULGD ,W KDV VLQFH EHHQ UHDUHG VXFFHVVIXOO\ RQ D ODUJH VFDOH XVLQJ PDJJRWV H[WUDFWHG PHFKDQLFDOO\ IURP IHFXQG IHPDOHV *URVV DQG -RKQVRQ f 6RPH UHVHDUFK KDV EHHQ GRQH RQ SRVVLEOH GHWULPHQWDO HIIHFWV RI SODQW DQWLELRVLV RQ ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO DJHQWV RI YDULRXV

PAGE 26

LQVHFW SHVWV LQFOXGLQJ WKH )$: +HOLFRYHUSD ]HD KDV DQ LFKQHXPRQLG SDUDVLWH +YSRVRWHU H[LTXDH 9LHUHFNf &DPSEHOO DQG 'XII\ f IRXQG WKLV SDUDVLWH FRXOG EH SRLVRQHG E\ DQ DQWLELRWLF DWRPDWLQHf IURP UHVLVWDQW WRPDWR SODQWV (YHQ WKRXJK DWRPDWLQH LV XVHIXO LQ FRQWUROOLQJ WRPDWR SHVWV LW KDV DQ DGYHUVH HIIHFW RQ WKH QDWXUDO HQHP\ H[LTXDH SUHYHQWLQJ WKH SDUDVLWRLG IURP H[HUWLQJ DQ DGGLWLRQDO SHVW SRSXODWLRQ UHJXODWLRQ HIIHFW 7KLV LV DQ H[DPSOH RI SRWHQWLDO LQFRPSDWLELOLW\ RI D UHVLVWDQW YDULHW\ DQG ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO 7KH DQWLELRWLF LQ WKH UHVLVWDQW SODQW SURWHFWV WKH LQVHFW IURP LWV QDWXUDO HQHP\ E\ VHUYLQJ DV D SURSKDODFWLF DJDLQVW WKH SDUDVLWRLG
PAGE 27

LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ LQVHFW KHUELYRUHV DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV PXVW EH VWXGLHG WR GHWHUPLQH FRPSDWLELOLW\ &KHPLFDO &RQWURO 0RVW LQVHFWLFLGHV H[HUW D GHQVLW\LQGHSHQGHQW HIIHFW RQ LQVHFW SRSXODWLRQV $SSOLFDWLRQ RI D FKHPLFDO FRQWURO XVXDOO\ UHVXOWV LQ SRSXODWLRQV EHORZ DQ HFRQRPLF LQMXU\ OHYHO (,/f WKH ORZHVW SHVW SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ ZKLFK ZLOO FDXVH HFRQRPLF GDPDJH KRZHYHU SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ LV QRW UHJXODWHG DERXW D PHDQ DV LV LGHDOO\f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f ,W LV WKHUHIRUH QHFHVVDU\

PAGE 28

WR XQGHUVWDQG LQWHUDFWLRQV RI SHVWLFLGHV ZLWK RWKHU SHVW PDQDJHPHQW WDFWLFV 0L[HG IXQFWLRQ R[LGDVHV 0)2f ORFDWHG LQ WKH HQGRSODVPLF UHWLFXOXP RI FHOOV SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ WKH PHWDEROLVP RI [HQRELRWLFV VXFK DV LQVHFWLFLGHV $ GHWDLOHG UHYLHZ RI WKH IXQFWLRQDO UROH RI 0)2 LQ LQVHFWV KDV EHHQ SXEOLVKHG E\ +RGJVRQ Df 7KLV V\VWHP LV WKRXJKW WR EH SDUWLDOO\ UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH VHOHFWLYH WR[LFLW\ RI LQVHFWLFLGHV WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI UHVLVWDQFH DQG WKH GHJUHH RI KHUELYRUH SRO\SKDJ\ 7KH HIIHFWV RI KRVW SODQWV RQ WKH 0)2 KDV EHHQ UHVHDUFKHG E\
PAGE 29

,QWHUDFWLRQV $PRQJ 7KUHH 7URSKLF /HYHOV 3ULFH HW DO f GHVFULEHG WKH LQIOXHQFH RI SODQWV RQ LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ LQVHFW KHUELYRUHV DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV 7HUUHVWULDO FRPPXQLWLHV DUH FRPSRVHG RI DW OHDVW WKUHH LQWHUDFWLQJ WURSKLF OHYHOV SODQWV KHUELYRUHV DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV RI KHUELYRUHV 3ULFH HW DO f DUJXH WKDW WKHRU\ RQ LQVHFWSODQW LQWHUDFWLRQV FDQQRW SURJUHVV UHDOLVWLFDOO\ ZLWKRXW FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI WKH WKLUG WURSKLF OHYHO 3ODQWV KDYH PDQ\ HIIHFWV GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW SRVLWLYH DQG QHJDWLYH QRW RQO\ RQ KHUELYRUHV EXW DOVR RQ WKH HQHPLHV RI KHUELYRUHV 7KH WKLUG WURSKLF OHYHO PXVW EH FRQVLGHUHG DV SDUW RI D SODQWnV EDWWHU\ RI GHIHQVHV DJDLQVW KHUELYRUHV 7KHUH DUH VHYHUDO WKHRULHV RQ LQWHUDFWLRQV DPRQJ SODQWV KHUELYRUHV DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV RI KHUELYRUHV KRZHYHU WKHVH WKHRULHV DUH UDUHO\ YLHZHG LQ WKH VDPH FRQWH[W RU HYHQ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI KRZ WKH\ DSSO\ LQ DJURHFRV\VWHPV 7KH WKHRU\ RI SODQW FKHPLFDO GHIHQVH DV GHYHORSHG E\ )HHQ\ f SHUPLWV VRPH SUHGLFWLRQV DERXW WKH HIILFDF\ RI WKH KHUELYRUHVn HQHPLHV DV LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH OLIH KLVWRU\ RI WKH SODQW )HHQ\ f SRLQWV RXW WKDW DQ\ SODQW FRQGLWLRQ WKDW ORZHUV WKH JURZWK UDWH RI DQ LQVHFW KHUELYRUH PDNHV LW DYDLODEOH WR QDWXUDO HQHPLHV IRU D ORQJHU SHULRG DQG UDLVHV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI PRUWDOLW\ )RU H[DPSOH ZKHUH LQVHFWV IHG RQ SODQWV FRQWDLQLQJ WDQQLQV DQG RWKHU GLJHVWLELOLW\ UHGXFHUV ORZHUHG GLJHVWLELOLW\ RI IRRG ZDV FRPSHQVDWHG SDUWLDOO\ E\ SURORQJHG IHHGLQJ +H DUJXHV WKDW SODQWV ZLWK

PAGE 30

GLJHVWLELOLW\ UHGXFHUV VKRXOG VXSSRUW KHUELYRUHV WKDW DUH PRUH KHDYLO\ DWWDFNHG E\ HQHPLHV WKDQ KHUELYRUHV RQ SODQWV ZLWKRXW GLJHVWLELOLW\ UHGXFHUV $JURHFRV\VWHPV KDYH PDGH SUHYLRXVO\ QRQDSSDUHQW SODQWV PRUH DSSDUHQW WR LQVHFWV DQG KDYH SURYLGHG KDELWDWV ZLWK KLJK UHVRXUFH DYDLODELOLW\ ,QFUHDVHG KHUELYRU\ KDV EHHQ WKH SUHGLFWDEOH UHVXOW $VSHFWV RI LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ SODQW JHQRW\SHV DQG ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO ZHUH GLVFXVVHG E\ %HUJPDQ DQG 7LQJH\ f 7KH\ HPSKDVL]H WKDW DV UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDUV EHFRPH PRUH ZLGHO\ XVHG LQ SHVW PDQDJHPHQW WKHLU FRPSDWLELOLW\ ZLWK ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO DJHQWV PXVW EH JLYHQ VHULRXV FRQVLGHUDWLRQ 7KH FRQFXUUHQW XVH RI UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDUV DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV FDQ SURYLGH GHQVLW\LQGHSHQGHQW PRUWDOLW\ LQ WLPHV RI ORZ SHVW GHQVLW\ DQG G\QDPLF GHQVLW\ GHSHQGHQW PRUWDOLW\ LQ WLPHV RI SHVW LQFUHDVH UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDUV FDQ H[HUW GHQVLW\LQGHSHQGHQW PRUWDOLW\ RQ WKH SHVW ZKLOH QDWXUDO HQHPLHV H[HUW G\QDPLF GHQVLW\GHSHQGHQW PRUWDOLW\f 1XPHURXV VWXGLHV LQGLFDWH WKDW SUHGDWRU DQG SDUDVLWH SHUIRUPDQFH PD\ EH DOWHUHG E\ WKH KRVW SODQW RI WKH SUH\ HJ )ODQGHUV 6PLWK f 3DLQWHU f GLVFXVVHG ZD\V LQ ZKLFK SODQW UHVLVWDQFH FDQ LQIOXHQFH QDWXUDO HQHPLHV $ UHGXFWLRQ LQ SUH\ SRSXODWLRQ PD\ DIIHFW WKH VXFFHVV RI VRPH SUHGDWRUV DQG SDUDVLWHV LI SUH\ GHQVLW\ IDOOV EHORZ WKH RSWLPXP VHDUFKLQJ FDSDFLW\ RI WKH QDWXUDO HQHP\ 6HFRQGO\ KRVW SODQWLQGXFHG FKDQJHV LQ SUH\ SK\VLRORJ\ DQG EHKDYLRU PD\ PRGLI\ WKH VXFFHVV RI QDWXUDO HQHPLHV 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WR LQYHVWLJDWH

PAGE 31

VSHFLILFDOO\ UHODWLRQVKLSV DPRQJ )$: UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDUV RI FRUQ DQG D QDWXUDO HQHP\ RI )$: LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI SHVW PDQDJHPHQW

PAGE 32

&+$37(5 ,, &2168037,21 '(9(/230(17 $1' )(&81',7< 2) )$: 21 ',(76 &217$,1,1* 6,/.6 2) 7+( 5(6,67$17 &251 &8/7,9$5 n=$3$/27( &+,&2n ,QWURGXFWLRQ 7KH PHFKDQLVPV RI SODQW UHVLVWDQFH JHQHUDOO\ DFFHSWHG DQG XVHG E\ HQWRPRORJLVWV LQ LQVHFW SODQW UHVLVWDQFH VWXGLHV DUH WKRVH SURSRVHG E\ 3DLQWHU f SUHIHUHQFH QRQSUHIHUHQFH DQWLELRVLV DQG WROHUDQFH $QWLELRVLV HIIHFWV PD\ WDNH WKH IRUP RI GHDWK LQ WKH HDUO\ LQVWDUV VPDOO VL]H RU UHGXFHG ZHLJKW DEQRUPDO ORQJHYLW\ ORZ IRRG UHVHUYHV OHVV IHFXQGLW\ GHDWK LQ WKH SUHSXSDO VWDJH DQG DEQRUPDO EHKDYLRU 2ZHQV f $QWL[HQRVLV LV D WHUP XVHG IRU QRQSUHIHUHQFH E\ ZKLFK IHHGLQJ RU RYLSRVLWLRQ PD\ EH GHOD\HG RU SUHYHQWHG :LVHPDQ f E\ HLWKHU DEVHQFH RI D VWLPXODQW RU WKH SUHVHQFH RI D GHWHUUHQW $ UHYLHZ RI WKH KLVWRU\ DQG WKH VWDWHRIWKHDUW RI SODQW UHVLVWDQFH WR )$: ZDV SUHVHQWHG E\ :LVHPDQ DQG 'DYLV f :LVHPDQ DQG :LGVWURP f UHSRUWHG WKDW ERWK QRQSUHIHUHQFH DQG DQWLELRVLV UHVLVWDQFH WR IHHGLQJ DUH PDQLIHVWHG LQ WKH VLONV RI =DSDORWH &KLFR =&f FRUQ WR +HOLFRYHUSD ]HD %RGGLHf 6LONV RI =& KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG WR FDXVH KLJK PRUWDOLW\ RI )$: E\ WKH WK GD\

PAGE 33

RI ODUYDO IHHGLQJ :LVHPDQ DQG :LGVWURP f UHSRUWHG WKDW DQWLELRWLF IDFWRUV LQ WKH VLONV UHVXOW LQ SURGXFWLRQ RI VPDOO ODUYDH VPDOO SXSDH DQG ORQJHU OLIH F\FOH FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKRVH IHG VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6(*f VZHHW FRUQ 7KH\ IRXQG WKDW ODUYDH IHG D GLHW RI J IUHVK ZHLJKWf VXVFHSWLEOH VLONV ZHLJKHG PJ FRPSDUHG ZLWK RQO\ PJ IRU WKRVH IHG =& VLONV $ KLJK GHJUHH RI QRQSUHIHUHQFH DOVR ZDV LQGLFDWHG :DLVV HW DO f IRXQG KLJK OHYHOV RI D IODYRQH JO\FRVLGH PD\VLQ LQ =& 6ODQVN\ f GHVFULEHV WKH SDUDGLJP ZKHUH LQVHFWV PD\ DOWHU SHUIRUPDQFH WR UHDFK PD[LPXP SRVVLEOH ILWQHVV $OWHUDWLRQV LQ SHUIRUPDQFH PD\ LQYROYH FRPSHQVDWRU\ UHVSRQVHV IRU H[DPSOH DOWHULQJ FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH DQGRU IRRG XWLOL]DWLRQ WR REWDLQ VXIILFLHQW QXWULHQWV WR UHDFK VRPH PLQLPXP ZHLJKW UHTXLUHG WR VWLPXODWH HFG\VLV 6ODQVN\ DQG 6FULEHU f $QWLELRVLV DV FDXVHG E\ IHHGLQJ RQ =& PD\ VWLPXODWH VRPH FRPSHQVDWRU\ UHVSRQVH LQ )$: 5HSRUWHG KHUH DUH H[SHULPHQWV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH HIIHFWV RI VLONV RI WKH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =& RQ IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDO JURZWK GHYHORSPHQW DQG IHFXQGLW\ 7KH PHWKRG RI %ODX HW DO f ZDV XVHG WR VHSDUDWH WKH HIIHFWV RI IHHGLQJ LQKLELWLRQ DQG WR[LFLW\ OHDGLQJ WR DQWLELRVLV WKH VXVSHFWHG PHFKDQLVP RI UHVLVWDQFH

PAGE 34

0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV ,QVHFWV )$: HJJV ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP D FRORQ\ PDLQWDLQHG RQ D SLQWR EHDQ PHULGLF GLHW 3HUNLQV f DW WKH ,QVHFW %LRORJ\ DQG 3RSXODWLRQ 0DQDJHPHQW 5HVHDUFK /DERUDWRU\ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD 1HRQDWH ODUYDH ZHUH UHDUHG RQ H[SHULPHQWDO GLHWV 2QH QHRQDWH ODUYD ZDV SODFHG LQ HDFK FXS DQG WKH FXS ZDV VHDOHG ZLWK D SDSHU OLG 7KLUW\ FXSV RI HDFK GLHW ZHUH VHW XS 7KH FXSV ZHUH PDLQWDLQHG DW r& DW OHDVW b 5+ DQG /' 'DLO\ REVHUYDWLRQ DOORZHG UHFRUGV WR EH NHSW RI WKH GXUDWLRQ RI HDFK LQVWDU DQG RI DQ\ PRUWDOLW\ )UHVK ZHLJKWV RI QHZO\ PROWHG ILIWK LQVWDUV ZHUH WDNHQ DQG IUHVK IRRG IHG WR WKHP ZDV ZHLJKHG WR DOORZ PHDVXUHPHQW RI IRRG FRQVXPSWLRQ 3HUFHQW GU\ ZHLJKW RI WKH LQLWLDO GLHW IHG ZDV GHWHUPLQHG E\ QRWLQJ WKH IUHVK ZHLJKW RI VDPSOHV RI HDFK RI WKH ILYH GLHWV GU\LQJ IRU KRXUV LQ WKH RYHQ DW r& DQG UHZHLJKLQJ 3XSDH ZHUH UHPRYHG ZLWKLQ KRXUV RI SXSDWLRQ GULHG DQG ZHLJKHG )HFHV DQG XQHDWHQ GLHW ZHUH FROOHFWHG GULHG DQG ZHLJKHG WR REWDLQ WKHLU UHVSHFWLYH GU\ ZHLJKWV $ 0HWWOHU +$5 EDODQFH DFFXUDWH WR PJ ZDV XVHG IRU DOO ZHLJKWV $OO PDWHULDO ZDV GULHG DW r& IRU DW OHDVW KRXUV ([SHULPHQWDO 'LHW 7ZR FRUQ JHQRW\SHV ZHUH VHOHFWHG FY 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ D VZHHW FRUQ VXVFHSWLEOH WR VLON DQG HDU IHHGLQJ LQ WKH ILHOG E\ +HOLFRYHUSD ]HD %RGGLHf ODUYDH DQG FY

PAGE 35

=DSDORWH &KLFR 3&f D GHQW FRUQ UHVLVWDQW WR VLON DQG HDU IHHGLQJ LQ WKH ILHOG 7KH FRUQ XVHG LQ WKLV H[SHULPHQW ZDV JURZQ LQ VLQJOHURZSORW SODQWLQJV P ORQJ DQG P DSDUW DW 7LIWRQ LQ DFFRUGLQJ WR DJURQRPLF SUDFWLFHV FRPPRQ WR WKH DUHD 'LHW SUHSDUHG DV IROORZV ZDV SURYLGHG E\ 'U % :LVHPDQ RI WKH 86'$ ODERUDWRU\ LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD 6LONV RI HDFK JHQRW\SH ZHUH KDUYHVWHG GD\V DIWHU HPHUJHQFH IURP WKH KXVN OHDYHV 7KH\ ZHUH H[FLVHG DW WKH WLS RI WKH HDU EXONHG DQG RYHQ GULHG DW r & IRU DERXW GD\V WKHQ JURXQG WR D ILQH SRZGHU PP VFUHHQf XVLQJ D &\FORWHF 7& )LVKHU 6FLHQWLILF $WODQWDf VDPSOH PLOO 'U\ VLONV ZHUH VWRUHG LQ D IUHH]HU DW r & XQWLO SUHSDUHG IRU XVH 2QH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKH 6(* VLON GLHW ZDV SUHSDUHG WR VHUYH DV D VXVFHSWLEOH GLHW FKHFN 7KLV FRQWDLQHG J RI 6(* VLONV LQ GLOXWHG SLQWR EHDQ GLHW PO GLHW PO GLVWLOOHG ZDWHUf %XUWRQ f 7KH FRQWURO GLHW FRQWDLQHG QR VLON 7KUHH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI =& VLON GLHW ZHUH SUHSDUHG J J DQG J 7KH VLONSLQWR EHDQ GLHWV ZHUH GLVSHQVHG LQWR PO SODVWLF GLHW FXSV PO SHU FXS DQG DOORZHG WR VROLGLI\ IRU DERXW KRXUV 4XDQWLWDWLYH 3HUIRUPDQFH 6WXGLHV /DUYDO IRRG FRQVXPSWLRQ JURZWK DQG IRRG XWLOL]DWLRQ LQGLFHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG XVLQJ JUDYLPHWULF WHFKQLTXHV EDVHG RQ GU\ ZHLJKWV 6ODQVN\ DQG 6FULEHU f LQ 3HUIRUPDQFH LQGLFHV LQFOXGHG ODUYDO SHULRG GD\Vf GD\

PAGE 36

SXSDO GU\ ZHLJKW GU\ ZHLJKW JDLQHG GXULQJ WKH ODVW LQVWDU IRRG XWLOL]DWLRQ HIILFLHQFLHV $' $SSUR[LPDWH GLJHVWLELOLW\ (&' (IILFLHQF\ RI FRQYHUVLRQ RI GLJHVWHG IRRG DQG (&, (IILFLHQF\ RI FRQYHUVLRQ RI LQJHVWHG IRRGf UHODWLYH JURZWK UDWH 5*5f DQG UHODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH 5&5f 7KHVH SDUDPHWHUV DQG WKHLU LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV DUH GHILQHG LQ WKH DSSHQGL[ DIWHU )LQNH f ([SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV ZHUH DQDO\]HG XVLQJ WKH */0 SURFHGXUH DQG 7XNH\nV VWXGHQWL]HG UDQJH WHVW S f WR VHSDUDWH PHDQV 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH ,QF f 7R[LFLWY)HHGLQFU ,QKLELWLRQ 7HVW 8QHTXLYRFDO GHPRQVWUDWLRQ RI WR[LFLW\ LV RIWHQ KDPSHUHG E\ WKH EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV RI H[SHULPHQWDO LQVHFWV DQG VORZ JURZWK GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ LQGLFDWH DGYHUVH HIIHFWV RQ PHWDEROLVP EXW SRVVLEO\ D UHVXOW RI EHKDYLRUDO LQKLELWLRQ RI IHHGLQJ :DOGEDXHU f %ODX HW DO f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

PAGE 37

RQ WKH FKHFN SLQWR EHDQ PHULGLF GLHW ZDV REWDLQHG E\ RIIHULQJ JURXSV RI QHZO\ PROWHG WK LQVWDU ODUYDH GLIIHUHQW DPRXQWV RI GLHW UDQJLQJ IURP QRQH DW DOO DSSUR[LPDWHO\ b b b DQG PRUH WKDQ WKH DPRXQW SUHYLRXVO\ GHWHUPLQHG WR EH FRQVXPHG ZLWKLQ KRXUV $OO RI WKH ODUYDH ZHUH VHW XS LQGLYLGXDOO\ LQ SHWUL GLVKHV 3HUFHQWDJH IUHVK ZHLJKW RI ERWK GLHW DQG ODUYDH ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG E\ REWDLQLQJ IUHVK ZHLJKWV RI VDPSOHV RI GLHW DQG LQGLYLGXDO ODUYDH DQG RYHQ GU\LQJ WKHVH DV SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHGf /DUYDH ZHUH OHIW WR IHHG DQG WKHQ ERWK WKH\ DQG DQ\ UHPDLQLQJ GLHW ZHLJKHG DIWHU KUV 5HVXOWDQW GDWD ZHUH XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH UHJUHVVLRQ VORSH RI JURZWK UDWH RQ FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH IRU WKH FKHFN GLHW *URXSV RI QHZO\ PROWHG WK LQVWDU ODUYDH UHDUHG IURP HJJV RQ WKH FKHFN GLHW ZHUH WKHQ LQGLYLGXDOO\ ZHLJKHG DQG IHG WKH FKHFN GLHWV DQG WHVW GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ 6(* DQG =& VLONV IRU KUV LQ LQGLYLGXDO SHWUL GLVKHV JURXS SHU GLHWf 5HODWLYH JURZWK DQG UHODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG DQG SORWWHG UHODWLYH WR WKH FDOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH IRU WKH FKHFN GLHW )HFXQGLW\ 6WXGLHV 7KLUW\ )$: ODUYDH ZHUH UHDUHG LQGLYLGXDOO\ LQ PO SODVWLF GLHW FXSV XQWLO SXSDWLRQ RQ D SLQWR EHDQ GLHW DQG RQ 6(* DQG =& VLON GLHWV DV SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG 3XSDH ZHUH UHPRYHG DQG VH[HG 6HSDUDWH VH[HV ZHUH SODFHG LQ 3OH[LJODVVr1 FDJHV [[ FPf 8SRQ HPHUJHQFH PDOHV DQG

PAGE 38

IHPDOHV ZHUH SDLUHG SDLUV ZHUH VHW XS SHU GLHWf DQG SODFHG LQ RYLSRVLWLRQ FDJHV VFUHHQ F\OLQGHUV FP [ FPf DQG VXSSOLHG n%RXQW\r1n KDQG WRZHO SDSHU DV DQ RYLSRVLWLRQ VXEVWUDWH 7KH SDSHU WRZHO ZDV VHFXUHG E\ D UXEEHU EDQG RYHU WKH WRS RI WKH FDJH 0RWKV ZHUH SURYLGHG D b VXFURVH VROXWLRQ $OO RYLSRVLWLRQ FDJHV ZHUH KHOG LQ D UHDULQJ FKDPEHU 3HUFLYDOr1 LQFXEDWRU PRGHO ,//Vf DW r & DQG b 5+ 2YLSRVLWLRQ VXEVWUDWHV ZHUH UHPRYHG HYHU\ VHFRQG GD\ DQG UHSODFHG $OO VXUIDFHV WKH RYLSRVLWLRQ VXEVWUDWH DQG WKH VLGHV RI WKH FDJH ZHUH FKHFNHG IRU HJJV DQG DOO HJJV FRXQWHG XQGHU WKH PLFURVFRSH (JJV ZHUH FRXQWHG XQGHU WKH PLFURVFRSH ZLWK WKH DLG RI D ILQH IRUFHSV DQG D KDQG KHOG GLVVHFWLQJ SLQ WR VHSDUDWH HJJV ZLWKLQ D PDVV ([SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV ZHUH DQDO\]HG XVLQJ WKH */0 SURFHGXUH RI 6$6 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH ,QF f 3XSDO :HLJKW 6WXG\ )$: ODUYDH ZHUH UHDUHG RQ WKH ILYH GLHWV DV GHVFULEHG LQGLYLGXDOO\ XQWLO SXSDWLRQ 7KLUW\VL[ SXSDH ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP FXSV ZLWKLQ KRXUV RI SXSDWLRQ VH[HG DQG ZHLJKHG 3HUFHQW GU\ ZHLJKW RI SXSDH ZDV GHWHUPLQHG E\ REWDLQLQJ IUHVK ZHLJKWV DQG RYHQ GU\LQJ D VDPSOH RI SXSDH RI HDFK VH[ IURP HDFK GLHW IRU KUV DW r & ([SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV ZHUH DQDO\]HG XVLQJ WKH */0 SURFHGXUH DQG 7XNH\nV VWXGHQWL]HG UDQJH WHVW WR VHSDUDWH PHDQV VLQFH WKLV WHVW LV PRGHUDWHO\ FRQVHUYDWLYH 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH ,QF f

PAGE 39

5HVXOWV DQG 'LVFXVVLRQ 7DEOHV DQG VXPPDUL]H WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV IRU )$: UHDUHG RQ WKH SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN &.f GLHW WKH 6(* VLON DQG WKH =& VLON GLHWV %\ LQFRUSRUDWLQJ WKUHH GLIIHUHQW TXDQWLWLHV RI =& VLONV LQWR WKH GLHW D JUDGLHQW RI UHVLVWDQFH ZDV FUHDWHG WR IDFLOLWDWH WKH REVHUYDWLRQ RI WKH HIIHFWV RQ ODUYDO PRUWDOLW\ DQG GHYHORSPHQWDO WLPH (IIHFWV RI D ORZ GRVH RU KLJK GRVH RI DQ\ DOOHORFKHPLFDO RU DQWLELRWLF IDFWRU VKRXOG KDYH EHHQ REVHUYHG DW WKH WZR H[WUHPHV =& J DQG =& J /DUYDO 0RUWDOLW\ DQG 'HYHORSPHQWDO 7LPH 'HYHORSPHQWDO WLPH IRU )$: ODUYDH VW LQVWDU WR SXSDWLRQf YDULHG RQ WKH GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6(* DQG =& /DUYDH UHDUHG RQ WKH SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHW ZKLFK GLG QRW FRQWDLQ DQ\ VLONVf KDG WKH VKRUWHVW GHYHORSPHQWDO WLPH RI DERXW GD\V )LJXUH f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

PAGE 40

7$%/( 'HYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV RI )$: WK DQG WK ODUYDO LQVWDUV IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3DUDPHWHUV 'LHW %L %I % 0% ) 7 3LQWR EHDQ FKHFNf D f D f D f D f D f D f G f 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ E f E f E f E f E f D f F f =DSDORWH &KLFR J DE f E f E f E f D f D f E f =DSDORWH &KLFR J D f E f E f E f E f D f E f =DSDORWH &KLFR J DE f F f F f F f DE f D f D f 3DUDPHWHUV GHILQHG LQ 7DEOH $O 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ VWG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S 7XNH\nV VWXGHQWL]HG UDQJH WHVWf $OO ZHLJKWV LQ PJ 6DPSOH VL]HV ZHUH FKHFNf 6(*f =& Jf =& Jf =& Jf D

PAGE 41

7$%/( )LIWK LQVWDU WR SXSDWLRQ IHHGLQJ HIILFLHQFLHV FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG JURZWKV IRU IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3DUDPHWHUVp 'LHW 5*5 5&5 $' (&' (&, 3LQWR EHDQ FKHFNf D f D f E f E f D f 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ E f E f F f D f D f =DSDORWH &KLFR J F f E f D f F f E f =DSDORWH &KLFR J F f F f & f D f D f =DSDORWH &KLFR J G f F f E f EH f F f D 3DUDPHWHUV GHILQHG LQ 7DEOH $O 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ VWG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S 7XNH\V VWXGHQWL]HG UDQJH WHVWf $OO ZHLJKWV LQ PJ 6DPSOH VL]HV ZHUH FKHFNf 6(*f =& Jf =& Jf =& Jf

PAGE 42

&RPSDULQJ WKH WLPH WR GHYHORS IURP WKH WK LQVWDU WR SXSDWLRQ RQ WKH VLON DQG &. GLHWV ODUYDH IHG RQ WKH =& J VLON GLHW WRRN GD\V WR SXSDWH FRPSDUHG ZLWK RU DQG GD\V UHVSHFWLYHO\ RQ WKH &. 6(* DQG =& DQG =& GLHWV UHVSHFWLYHO\ )LJXUH f 7KLV ZDV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH SDWWHUQ REVHUYHG IRU RYHUDOO GHYHORSPHQWDO WLPH IRU WKH GLIIHUHQW GLHWV 7KHUH ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ WLPH WR GHYHORS IURP WK LQVWDU WR SXSDWLRQ IRU ODUYDH IHG WKH &. DQG WKH 6(* GLHW 'HYHORSPHQW WLPH IURP WK WR SXSDWLRQ IRU ODUYDH IHG =& DQG =& GLHWV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW XVLQJ 7XNH\nV VWXGHQWL]HG UDQJH WHVW WR VHSDUDWH PHDQV 7DEOH VXPPDUL]HV WKH GDWD IRU WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDO LQVWDUV IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6DPSOH VL]HV DQG UHVXOWV RI 7XNH\nV VWXGHQWL]HG UDQJH WHVW DUH LQGLFDWHG RQ DOO WDEOHV 0RUWDOLW\ ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IRU WKH GLIIHUHQW GLHWV 3HUFHQW PRUWDOLW\ ZDV b b b b DQG b IRU ODUYDH IHG WKH &. 6(* =& =& DQG =& VLON GLHWV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 6RPH RI WKH ODUYDH GLHG IURP GURZQLQJ LQ ZDWHU WKDW KDG FRQGHQVHG LQ WKH JURZWK FKDPEHU DV D UHVXOW RI XVLQJ D KXPLGLILHU ZLWKLQ WKH FKDPEHU 3HUFHQW PRUWDOLW\ RQ WKH GLIIHUHQW GLHWV LV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH $ 'LIIHUHQFHV LQ VDPSOH VL]HV LQ WKH PDWHULDOV DQG PHWKRGV DQG VDPSOH VL]HV XVHG LQ VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VHV ZHUH GXH WR GHDWKV IURP GURZQLQJ DQG ODUYDH VDFULILFHG E\ EHLQJ ZHLJKHG DQG GULHG WR REWDLQ GU\ ZHLJKW SHUFHQWDJHV

PAGE 43

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nV VWXGHQWL]HG UDQJH WHVWf 7KHUH ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV IRXQG LQ SXSDO GU\ ZHLJKWV IRU WKH GLIIHUHQW GLHWV )LJXUH f 3XSDH IURP WKH &. GLHW KDG WKH KLJKHVW GU\ ZHLJKW 'U\ ZHLJKW RI WKH &. 6(* DQG =& J SXSDH ZHUH VLPLODU QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHVf 'U\ ZHLJKW RI SXSDH IURP WKH =& J GLHW ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ ORZHU WKDQ WKH GU\ ZHLJKWV RI SXSDH IURP WKH &. 6(* DQG WKH =& J GLHWV DQG VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ GU\ ZHLJKW RI SXSDH IURP WKH =& J GLHW $V =& VLON FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH GLHW LQFUHDVHG WR J SXSDO GU\

PAGE 44

)LJXUH /DUYDO GXUDWLRQ IRU IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ D FKHFN &.f SLQWR EHDQ GLHW DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\

PAGE 45

/' 2 /[,f§ &. ',(7 =& =&

PAGE 46

)LJXUH 'HYHORSPHQWDO WLPH IRU IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDO LQVWDUV WR SXSDWLRQ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\

PAGE 47

=& =& =& ',(7

PAGE 48

)LJXUH )UHVK ZHLJKWV PJf RI QHZO\ PROWHG IDOO DUP\ZRUP WK LQVWDU ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ D FKHFN &.f SLQWR EHDQ GLHW DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*fD VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& =& J J J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\

PAGE 49

',(7

PAGE 50

)LJXUH 3HUFHQW GU\ ZHLJKW RI WK LQVWDU IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ D FKHFN &.f SLQWR EHDQ GLHW DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\

PAGE 51

&. /W$ /7?

PAGE 52

ZHLJKW GHFUHDVHG WR D VLJQLILFDQWO\ ORZHU ZHLJKW RI PJ FRPSDUHG WR PJ RQ WKH &. GLHW 'LHW 'U\ :HLJKWV 6LJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH IRXQG DPRQJ WKH GU\ ZHLJKW SHUFHQW RI WKH GLIIHUHQW GLHWV )LJXUH f 7KLV PD\ KDYH EHHQ GXH WR WKH TXDQWLW\ RI VLON LQ WKH GLIIHUHQW GLHWV 7KH =& J GLHW KDG WKH KLJKHVW GU\ ZHLJKW FRQWHQW DW b 7KH PD[LPXP GLIIHUHQFH LQ SHUFHQWDJH GU\ ZHLJKW EHWZHHQ GLHWV ZDV SHUFHQWDJH SRLQWV LH bf 5HODWLYH JURZWK UDWH 7KH UHODWLYH JURZWK UDWH 5*5 5&5 [ $' [ (&'f >ELRPDVV GU\ ZHLJKW JDLQ PJfDYHUDJH FDWHUSLOODU GU\ ZHLJKW PJfGHYHORSPHQWDO WLPH GD\Vf@ DOVR GHFUHDVHG ZLWK DQ LQFUHDVH RI =& VLON LQ WKH GLHW FRQVXPHG 7DEOH f 7KH )$: ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ WKH =& J GLHW KDG DQ 5*5 RI PJPJGD\ ZKLOH ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ WKH =& J VLON GLHW KDG DQ 5*5 RI PJPJGD\ $ GRXEOLQJ RI VLON FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKLV LQVWDQFH JDYH ULVH WR D b UHGXFWLRQ LQ JURZWK UDWH 7KLV WUHQG ZDV QRW REVHUYHG EHWZHHQ =& DQG =& 5HODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ 7KH UHODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH RI GU\ ZHLJKW GZf 5&5 PJ GZ FRQVXPHGPJ PHDQ ERG\ GZGD\f GHFUHDVHG DV WKH VLON FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI =DSDORWH &KLFR LQ WKH GLHW LQFUHDVHG 7KH ORZHVW 5&5 ZDV ZLWK WKH =& J GLHW DQG WKH KLJKHVW RQ WKH VLON IUHH GLHW 7KHUH ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ 5&5

PAGE 53

EHWZHHQ WKH ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ WKH &. GLHW DQG RQ DOO WKH WHVW GLHWV 7DEOH f $SSUR[LPDWH 'LJHVWLELOLW\ 7KHUH ZHUH VRPH VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ DSSUR[LPDWH GLJHVWLELOLW\ $' >PJ GZ FRQVXPHG PJ GZ IHFHV@PJ GZ FRQVXPHGf IRU ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ WKH VLON GLHWV 7DEOH f /DUYDH IHG WKH =& GLHW KDG DQ $' WKDW ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKH RWKHU GLHWV 7KH DSSUR[LPDWH GLJHVWLELOLW\ $'f HVWLPDWHV WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI LQJHVWHG IRRG GU\ ZHLJKWf WKDW LV FRQVXPHG DQG DVVLPLODWHG (IILFLHQF\ RI &RQYHUVLRQ RI 'LJHVWHG )RRG (IILFLHQF\ RI FRQYHUVLRQ RI GLJHVWHG IRRG LQWR LQVHFW WLVVXH (&'f >ELRPDVV JDLQLQJHVWLRQIHFHVf DOO GU\ ZHLJKWV@ YDULHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ RQ WKH GLIIHUHQW GLHWV 1R SURJUHVVLYH WUHQG ZDV REVHUYHG ZLWK DQG LQFUHDVH LQ VLON FRQFHQWUDWLRQ 7KH (&' IRU ODUYDH IHG WKH 6(* GLHW ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKH (&' RI IRU DOO GLHWV H[FHSW =& 7DEOH f (IILFLHQF\ RI &RQYHUVLRQ RI ,QJHVWHG )RRG 7KH HIILFLHQF\ RI FRQYHUVLRQ RI LQJHVWHG IRRG LQWR LQVHFW WLVVXH (&,f >ELRPDVV JDLQLQJHVWLRQ DOO GU\ ZHLJKW PJ@ GHFUHDVHG RQ WKH =& VLON GLHW =& WKH GLHW ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI VLON UHVXOWHG LQ WKH ORZHVW (&, FRPSDUHG WR WKH KLJKHVW RQ WKH FRQWURO GLHW 7KH (&,

PAGE 54

)LJXUH 3XSDO IUHVK ZHLJKWV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ D SLQWR EHDQ GLHW &.f DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\

PAGE 55

=& =& =& )5(6+ :(,*+7 2) 383$( 0*f r‘ P UR &Q 2 &Q 2 &Q 2 2 2 2 2 2 e

PAGE 56

)LJXUH 3XSDO GU\ ZHLJKWV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ D PHULGLF SLQWR EHDQ GLHW FNf DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ 6f DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\

PAGE 57

',(7

PAGE 58

)LJXUH 3HUFHQWDJH GU\ ZHLJKW RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6f DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR 5f FRUQ =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\

PAGE 59

6(* =& =& =& ',(7 3(5&(17 '5< :(,*+7 2( ',(7 f§!f UR 2VL RM A 2&-L2&QRFQ2&-L2 , , /

PAGE 60

)LJXUH 0HDQ QXPEHU RI HJJV ODLG E\ IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHW &.f DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =& =& DQG =& J J DQG J RI =& VLON LQ PO RI FKHFN GLHW UHVSHFWLYHO\

PAGE 61

&. =& =& =& 2 ',(7

PAGE 62

IRU ODUYDH IHG WKH &. 6(* DQG =& GLHWV GLG QRW GLIIHU VLJQLILFDQWO\ )$: ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ WKH 6(* VLON GLHW KDG D KLJKHU (&, WKDQ )$: IHHGLQJ RQ WKH =& GLHW )HFXQGLW\ /\QFK HW DO f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nV WHVW 7DEOH $f 7R[LFLWY)HHGLQT ,QKLELWLRQ 6WXG\ )LJXUH LOOXVWUDWHV WKH HVWLPDWHG UHJUHVVLRQ OLQH IRU )$: FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG JURZWK UDWH ZKHQ IHHGLQJ RQ D SLQWR EHDQ PHULGLF GLHW ZLWK SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV DJDLQVW FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV IRU )$: ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ WKH FKHFN GLHW QR VLONVf IRU KUV 7KH U IRU WKH UHJUHVVLRQ OLQH ZDV

PAGE 63

)LJXUH &DOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH IRU WK LQVWDU IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHHGLQJ RQ D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHW (VWLPDWHG UHJUHVVLRQ OLQH IRU UHODWLYH JURZWK UDWH 5*5f DJDLQVW UHODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH 5&5f IRU KRXU IHHGLQJ

PAGE 64

5HODWLYH *URZWK 5DWH PJPJGD\f 5HODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH PJPJGD\f

PAGE 65

)LJXUH &DOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH IRU IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHHGLQJ RQ D PHULGLF GLHW ZLWK SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV DJDLQVW FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV IRU ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ J HDFK RI VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ

PAGE 66

5HODWLYH *URZWK 5DWH PJPJGD\f 5HODWLYH &RQVXPSWLRQ 5DWH PJPJGD\f

PAGE 67

7KH HTXDWLRQ REWDLQHG ZDV 5*5 5&5 [ f 7KLV LV WKH FDOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH LQGLFDWLQJ WKH HIIHFW RI YDU\LQJ FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH RQ ODUYDO JURZWK UDWH LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI FRUQ VLONV )LJXUH VKRZV SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV DJDLQVW FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV IRU )$: ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ J RI 6(* DQG =& VLONV IRU KUV 7KHVH SORWV DUH FORVH WRWKH FDOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH 7KH\ DUH QHLWKHU EHORZ WKH FXUYH ZKLFK ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ LQGLFDWLYH RI WR[LFLW\ QRU GR WKH\ IDOO LQ WKH ORZ FRQVXPSWLRQ UDQJH 7KHVH GLHWV 6(* DQG =& DUH QHLWKHU WR[LF QRU GR WKH\ LQKLELW IHHGLQJ )LJXUH VKRZV SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV DJDLQVW FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV IRU )$: ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ DQG J RI =& VLONV IRU KUV 7KHVH SRLQWV IDOO EHORZ WKH FDOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH JLYLQJ DQ LQGLFDWLRQ WKDW WKHVH GLHWV PD\ SURYH WR EH WR[LF WR )$: ,I IHHGLQJ KDG EHHQ LQKLELWHG WKH SRLQWV ZRXOG KDYH IDOOHQ RQ WKH FDOLEUDWLRQ FXUYHV EXW LQ WKH UDQJH RI ORZ FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH 7KLV OHDGV WR WKH FRQFOXVLRQ WKDW WKH DQWLELRVLV UHVLVWDQFH REVHUYHG IRU =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ DJDLQVW )$: ODUYDH LV D GLUHFW UHVXOW RI DQ DQWLELRWLF DJHQW WKDW LV WR[LF WR WKH )$: 7DEOHV DQG VKRZ ELRPDVV JDLQHG IHHGLQJ DQG JURZWK UDWHV DV ZHOO DV HIILFLHQF\ SDUDPHWHUV IRU )$: IHHGLQJ IRU KUV RQ WKH GLIIHUHQW VLON GLHWV )LJXUH VKRZV DOO SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ

PAGE 68

)LJXUH &DOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH IRU )$: IHHGLQJ RQ D PHULGLF GLHW ZLWK SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV DJDLQVW FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV IRU DOUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ J DQG J RI =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ VLONV

PAGE 69

5HODWLYH &RQVXPSWLRQ 5DWH PJPJGD\f 2 5HODWLYH *URZWK 5DWH PJPJGD\f R R R R r‘ N! FW! FG r‘ UY!

PAGE 70

)LJXUH &DOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH IRU IDOO DUP\ZRPW IHHGLQJ RQ D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHW ZLWK SORWV RI JURZWK UDWHV 5*5f DJDLQVW FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH 5&5f IRU ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ WHVW GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI UHVLVWDQW DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDUV J RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ VLON DQG J J DQG J RI =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ VLONVf

PAGE 71

5HODWLYH *URZWK 5DWH PJPJGD\f 5HODWLYH &RQVXPSWLRQ 5DWH PJPJGD\f

PAGE 72

7$%/( 'HYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV &RQVXPSWLRQ JURZWK DQG ELRPDVVfRI WK LQVWDU IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH IHHGLQJ RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ KUVf 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3DUDPHWHUV 'LHW %L %I % % 3LQWR EHDQ FKHFNf D f D f D f D f D f 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ E f D f D f E f E f =DSDORWH &KLFR J E f E f E f F f & f =DSDORWH &KLFR J F f F f E f G f E f =DSDORWH &KLFR J E f G f F f G f & f D 0HDVXUHPHQWV H[SUHVVHG LQ PJ GU\ ZHLJKW 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ 6WDQGDUG HUURUf LQ HDFK FROXPQ YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHUV DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S /6'f 3DUDPHWHUV GHILQHG LQ 7DEOH $O $OO ZHLJKWV LQ PJ 6DPSOH VL]HV ZHUH FKHFNf 6(*f =& Jf =& Jf =& Jf

PAGE 73

7$%/( 5DWHV RI FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV RI JURZWK DQG HIILFLHQF\ RI FRQYHUVLRQ RI LQJHVWHG IRRG IRU WK LQVWDU )$: ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ KUVf 'LHW 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3DUDPHWHUV 5&5 5*5 (&, 3LQWR EHDQ FKHFNf E E E f f f 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ F D D f f f =DSDORWH &KLFR J F E D f f f =DSDORWH &KLFR J D E F f f f =DSDORWH &KLFR J D F G f f f 3DUDPHWHUV GHILQHG LQ 7DEOH $O 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ VWDQGDUG HUURUf LQ HDFK FROXPQ YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S /6'f $OO ZHLJKWV LQ PJ 6DPSOH VL]HV ZHUH FKHFNf 6(*f =& Jf =& Jf =& Jf D

PAGE 74

UDWHV IRU DOO WKH WHVW GLHWV SORWWHG DJDLQVW WKH FDOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH *HQHUDO 'LVFXVVLRQ 8VLQJ WKH PHWKRG RI %ODX HW DO WKH PHFKDQLVP RI UHVLVWDQFH RI =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ ZDV GHWHUPLQHG WR EH RQH RI DQWLELRVLV UHVXOWLQJ IURP WR[LFLW\ 7KLV VXSSRUWV REVHUYDWLRQV PDGH E\ :LVHPDQ DQG :LGVWURP f RQ WKH PHFKDQLVPV RI UHVLVWDQFH LQ =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ VLONV WR )$: ODUYDH EXW IXUWKHU VSHFLILHV WKH EDVLV RI DQWLELRVLV REVHUYHG 7KH WR[LF HIIHFW RI =& FRUQ VLONV PD\ H[SODLQ VRPH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG IRU )$: GHYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV PHDVXUHG GXULQJ WKH WK DQG WK LQVWDUV IRU )$: UHDUHG RQ FRQWURO FKHFN DQG VLON GLHWV VXFK DV UHGXFHG ILQDO ERG\ ZHLJKW %If UHGXFHG UHODWLYH JURZWK UDWH 5*5f UHGXFHG UHODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH 5&5f ,QFUHDVHG IRRG FRQVXPSWLRQ LQ UHVSRQVH WR UHGXFHG QXWULHQW OHYHOV LV ZHOO GRFXPHQWHG 6ODQVN\ DQG :KHHOHU 6FULEHU DQG )HHQ\ 7LPPLQV HW DO f +RZHYHU LQFUHDVLQJ WKH TXDQWLW\ RI DQ DOOHORFKHPLFDO RU WR[LQ DV RFFXUUHG KHUH ZDUUDQWV D GLIIHUHQW VHW RI UHVSRQVHV $OOHORFKHPLFDOV KDYH EHHQ LPSOLFDWHG DV IDFWRUV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU UHGXFHG IHHGLQJ UDWHV DQG HIILFLHQFLHV 6ODQVN\ DQG 6FULEHU f DQG IRU LQKLELWLQJ DQG SURORQJLQJ LQVHFW JURZWK 6WLSDQRYLF f 7KHUH ZDV QR

PAGE 75

VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ ERG\ ZHLJKW DWWDLQHG E\ WKH WK LQVWDU %Lf E\ ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ WKH FKHFN DQG =& VLON GLHWV +RZHYHU ILQDO ERG\ ZHLJKW %If ELRPDVV JDLQHG %f DQG PHDQ ERG\ ZHLJKW 0%f GHFUHDVHG ZLWK DQ LQFUHDVH LQ =& VLON 2YHU WKH ILIWK DQG VL[WK LQVWDU WKH GHFOLQH LQ ELRPDVV JDLQHG %f ZLWK LQFUHDVH LQ =& VLON ZDV GLUHFWO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH GHFUHDVH LQ IRRG FRQVXPSWLRQ ,f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

PAGE 76

DV UHGXFWLRQ LQ )$: SRSXODWLRQV ZRXOG JUHDWO\ UHGXFH FURS GDPDJH DQG DOOHYLDWH PRYHPHQW WR DOWHUQDWH FURSV 3URORQJHG GHYHORSPHQWDO WLPH PDNHV ODUYDH YXOQHUDEOH WR D QXPEHU RI PRUWDOLW\ DJHQWV IRU D ORQJHU SHULRG HJ SDUDVLWHV DQG SUHGDWRUV 3ULFH HW DO f 7KH UHVLVWDQW YDULHW\ PD\ KDYH HIIHFWV RQ QDWXUDO HQHPLHV RI KHUELYRUHV WKDW DUH LQGLUHFW LQ QDWXUH $ VWXG\ RI WKH HIIHFWV D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU KDV RQ DQ HFRQRPLFDOO\ LPSRUWDQW SHVW VXFK DV WKH )$: UHVXOWV LQ D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH SHVW DQG KRVW SODQW 7R[LF FRPSRXQGV LQ SODQWV FDQ EH VHTXHVWHUHG RU F\FOHG LQ KHUELYRUHV DQG XVHG DV GHIHQVHV DJDLQVW WKH WKLUG WURSKLF OHYHO 3ULFH f 7R[LF FRPSRXQGV DQG DOOHORFKHPLFDOV KDYH DQ HIIHFW RQ WKH GHWR[LFDWLRQ HQ]\PHV RI )$:
PAGE 77

&+$37(5 ,,, ),(/' 3(5)250$1&( 2) $5&+<7$6 0$5025$786 $*$,167 )$// $50<:250 632'237(5$ )58*,3(5'$ 21 672:(//n6 (9(5*5((1 $ 686&(37,%/( &251 &8/7,9$5 $1' 0S6:&% $ 5(6,67$17 &251 &8/7,9$5 /XJLQELOO f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f ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH LQIOXHQFH RI UHVLVWDQW FRUQ YDULHWLHV XSRQ EHQHILFLDO LQVHFW SRSXODWLRQV LV ODFNLQJ ,VHQKRXU HW DO Df UHVHDUFKHG HQKDQFHG SUHGDWLRQ E\ WKH EXJ 2ULXV LQVLGLRVXV 6D\f RQ ODUYDH RI +HOLFRYHURD ]HD %RGGLHf DQG 6SRGRSWHUD IUXTLSHUGD

PAGE 78

-(6PLWKf )$:f FDXVHG E\ SUH\ IHHGLQJ RQ D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ JHQRW\SH 0S6:&% )$: ODUYDH IHG WKH UHVLVWDQW 0S6:&% KDG VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU UDWHV RI SUHGDWLRQ E\ DGXOW LQVLGLRVXV WKDQ GLG DUP\ZRUP IHG &DFDKXDQFLQWOH D VXVFHSWLEOH JHQRW\SH 6WXGLHV RQ WKH (XURSHDQ FRUQ ERUHU 2VWULQLD QXELODOLV +EQHUf DQG D WDFKLQLG SDUDVLWRLG /\GHOOD TULVHVFHQV 5RELQHDX'HVYRLG\ LQGLFDWHG WKDW FRUQ YDULHW\ LQIOXHQFHG WKH UDWH RI SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ )UDQNOLQ DQG +ROGDZD\ f ,Q FRWWRQ JODEURXV SKHQRW\SHV DUH OHVV DWWUDFWLYH WR ]HD IRU RYLSRVLWLRQ WKDQ DUH KLUVXWH SKHQRW\SHV KRZHYHU UDWHV RI HJJ SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ 7ULFKRTUDPPD SUHWLRVXP 5LOH\f ZHUH JUHDWHU LQ JODEURXV W\SHV 7UHDF\ HW DO f 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG UHVLVWDQW KRVW SODQWV PD\ EH LQGLUHFWO\ GHWULPHQWDO WR SDUDVLWRLGV E\ PRGLI\LQJ WKH UDWH RI UHSURGXFWLRQ DQG QXWULWLRQ RI GHYHORSLQJ KRVW ODUYDH 3RZHOO DQG /DPEHUW 2UU DQG %RHWKHO f 3DUDVLWHV SUHGDWRUV DQG SDUDVLWRLGV UHSUHVHQW WKUHH GLIIHUHQW FDUQLYRURXV LQWHUVSHFLILF LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ DQLPDOV ,Q WKH SDUDVLWHV PDQ\ JHQHUDWLRQV PD\ RFFXU RQ RU LQ D KRVW DQG WKHUH LV D WHQGHQF\ WRZDUGV WKH HYROXWLRQ RI KRVW VSHFLILFLW\ DQG D PRUH FRPSOH[ LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLS 3UHGDWRUV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG PXVW ORFDWH D ODUJH QXPEHU RI SUH\ KRVWf LQ RUGHU WR JURZ DQG UHSURGXFH 3DUDVLWRLGV IDOO EHWZHHQ WKHVH WZR H[WUHPHV 2QO\ RQH JHQHUDWLRQ LV SURGXFHG SHU KRVW DQG RQO\ WKH LPPDWXUH VWDJH LV SDUDVLWLF

PAGE 79

ZKLOH WKH DGXOWV DUH IUHH OLYLQJ $ SDUDVLWRLG UHTXLUHV WKH HQWLUH KRVW DQG NLOOV LW WKXV HOLPLQDWLQJ WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU WKH HYROXWLRQ RI D PXWXDOLVWLF UHODWLRQVKLS DIWHU WKH KRVW KDV EHHQ DWWDFNHG 7KH KRVW EHFRPHV D FRQWDLQHU IRU WKH GHYHORSLQJ SDUDVLWRLG HQDEOLQJ WKH SDUDVLWRLG WR PRGLI\ WKH KRVW EHKDYLRU IRU LWV EHQHILW 7KH WHUP SDUDVLWRLG ZDV ILUVW XVHG E\ 5HXWHU LQ +DVVHO DQG :DDJH f WR GHVFULEH LQVHFWV WKDW GHYHORS DV ODUYDH RQ WKH WLVVXHV RI RWKHU DUWKURSRGV ZKLFK WKH\ HYHQWXDOO\ NLOO 3DUDVLWRLGV KDYH EHHQ GHVFULEHG DV SUHGDWRUOLNH SDUDVLWHV )DOO DUP\ZRUP LV DWWDFNHG E\ D GLYHUVH FRPSOH[ RI QDWXUDO HQHPLHV LQFOXGLQJ NQRZQ VSHFLHV RI SDUDVLWRLGV $VKOH\ *DUGHQHU DQG )X[D f 6HYHUDO ODERUDWRU\ VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FDUULHG RXW WR DVVHVV WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI VHOHFWHG SDUDVLWRLGV DV ELRWLF FRQWURO DJHQWV RI )$: 0LWFKHOO HW DO ,VHQKRXU 3DLU HW DO Df $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV 7RZQVHQGf LV D WDFKLQLG SDUDVLWRLG ODUYDOSXSDOf RI WKH 1RFWXLGDH LQ 1RUWK DQG 6RXWK $PHULFD DQG LQ WKH :HVW ,QGLHV 6DEURVN\ $VKOH\ f 1XPHURXV DXWKRUV KDYH UHSRUWHG LWV RFFXUUHQFH WKURXJKRXW WKH VRXWKHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 4XDLQWDQFH DQG %UXHV /XJLQELOO 9LFNHU\ %LEE\ 3DUHQFLD 6KHSDUG DQG 6WHUOLQJ f )LQGLQJV E\ *URVV HW DO f IURP FROOHFWLRQV RI WK DQG WKLQVWDU ODUYDH RI + ]HD DQG 6 IUXTLSHUGD UHVSHFWLYHO\ RQ FRUQ LQGLFDWHG WKDW $ PDUPRUDWXV LV D PDMRU SDUDVLWRLG RI WKHVH VSHFLHV

PAGE 80

SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ VRXWK *HRUJLD DQG QRUWK )ORULGD *URVV DQG -RKQVRQ f GLVFXVVHG DGYDQFHV LQ ODUJH VFDOH UHDULQJ DQG ELRORJLFDO VWXGLHV RI $ PDUPRUDWXV *URVV HW DO f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f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

PAGE 81

7+,5' 7523+,& /(9(/ ([WULQVLF GHIHQVH RI SODQW 6(&21' 7523+,& /(9(/ 1$785$/ (1(0< ),567 7523+,& /(9(/ ‘3/$17 ,QWULQVLF GHIHQVH RI SODQW )LJXUH 7KH NLQGV RI LQWHUDFWLRQV GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW LQ D W\SLFDO IRRG ZHE VKRZLQJ WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ LQWULQVLF DQG H[WULQVLF GHIHQVH RI SODQWV DQG WKH WUDGHRIIV EHWZHHQ WKHP LQGLFDWH SRVLWLYH QHJDWLYH RU QRHIIHFWV WKH SODQWV PD\ LPSDFW RQ WKH KHUELYRUHQDWXUDO HQHP\ UHODLRQVKLS )URP 3ULFH f

PAGE 82

DERYH PHQWLRQHG LQGHSHQGHQW GLVFLSOLQHV LV LQWHUHVWHG LQ WZR WURSKLF OHYHO V\VWHPV 7KH WZR JURXSV DSSHDU WR EH PHOGLQJ DW SUHVHQW DQG GXULQJ WKH ODVW GHFDGH WKH GHWDLOV RI GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW HIIHFWV RI SODQWV RQ KHUELYRUHV DQG WKHLU QDWXUDO HQHPLHV DW WKH FKHPLFDO OHYHO DUH UHFHLYLQJ PXFK DWWHQWLRQ HJ %HUJPDQ DQG 7LQJH\ %HOO DQG &DUGH %DUERVD DQG /HWRXUQHDX f +RVW GLHW LQIOXHQFHV VXLWDELOLW\ RI D KRVW IRU D SDUDVLWRLG 6ODQVN\ f GLVFXVVHG WKH QXWULWLRQDO HFRORJ\ RI HQGRSDUDVLWLF LQVHFWV DQG WKHLU KRVWV &DPSEHOO DQG 'XIIH\ f GHVFULEHG D FDVH RI SRWHQWLDO LQFRPSDWLELOLW\ RI SODQW DQWLELRVLV ZLWK ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO (IIHFWV RI SHVWUHVLVWDQW VR\EHDQV RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI K\PHQRSWHURXV SDUDVLWRLGV RI /HSLGRSWHUD KDYH EHHQ VWXGLHG
PAGE 83

GLHW WKLV GHOHWHULRXV HIIHFW ZDV HOLPLQDWHG *UHDQH\ HW DO f %HUJPDQ DQG 7LQJH\ f UHYLHZHG YDULRXV W\SHV RI LQWHUDFWLRQV WKDW RFFXU EHWZHHQ KRVW SODQWV LQVHFW SHVWV DQG WKHLU QDWXUDO HQHPLHV 7KHUH LV D GLUHFW LQIOXHQFH RI SODQW KRVWV RQ QDWXUDO HQHPLHV YRODWLOHV SODQW JURZWK FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WR[LF DQG QXWULWLRQDO IDFWRUV DQG IROLDJH PRUSKRORJ\ DOO GLUHFWO\ DIIHFW QDWXUDO HQHPLHV 'RXWW f GLVFXVVHG WKH GLUHFWHG RULHQWDWLRQ RI SUHGDWRUV DQG SDUDVLWHV WR KRVW SODQWV RI WKHLU SUH\ DQG WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO DWWUDFWLRQ WKDW RFFXUV DPRQJ FURS YDULHWLHV )UDQNOLQ DQG +ROGDZD\ f UHSRUWHG GLIIHUHQWLDO DWWUDFWLRQ RI /YGHOOD TULVHVFHQV 5RELQHDX'HVYRLG\ D SDUDVLWH RI WKH (XURSHDQ FRUQ ERUHU 2VWULQLD QXELODOLV +EQHUf WR GLIIHUHQW PDL]H K\EULGV 0DQ\ SUHGDWRUV DQG SDUDVLWHV XVH SODQW MXLFHV QHFWDU DQG SROOHQ DV VRXUFHV RI IRRG DQG ZDWHU LQVLGLRVXV D SUHGDWRU RI + ]HD FRQVXPHV MXLFHV DQG SROOHQ RI FRUQ DQG FRWWRQ 'LFNH DQG -DUYLV f %HUJPDQ DQG 7LQJH\ f DOVR SRLQWHG RXW WKDW WKH QXWULWLRQDO VXEVWUDWH RIIHUHG E\ D KRVW SODQW FDQ LQGLUHFWO\ LQIOXHQFH SUHGDWRU DQG SDUDVLWH ILWQHVV LQ VHYHUDO ZD\V SUH\ FRQILQHG WR UHVLVWDQW KRVWV FRPPRQO\ H[SHULHQFH UHGXFHG JURZWK UDWHV JUHDWHU GHYHORSPHQWDO WLPH DQG PRUWDOLW\ DQG GHFUHDVHG IHFXQGLW\ 6XFK GUDPDWLF DOWHUDWLRQV RI SK\VLRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV PD\ FKDQJH WKH QXWULWLRQDO TXDOLW\ RI WKH SUH\ DV IRRGKRVW IRU SUHGDWRUV DQG SDUDVLWHV *URVV DQG 3DLU f UHYLHZHG WKH LPSDFW RI HQGHPLF SDUDVLWRLGV DQG SUHGDWRUV DV UHJXODWRUV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP

PAGE 84

SRSXODWLRQV DQG LGHQWLILHG DUHDV RI UHVHDUFK DQG GHYHORSPHQW WKDW PXVW EH DGGUHVVHG EHIRUH VLJQLILFDQW DGYDQFHV FDQ EH PDGH LQ LPSRUWDWLRQ DQG DXJPHQWDWLRQ 3DLU HW DO f GLVFXVVHG WKH LQIOXHQFH RI IRXU FRUQ FXOWLYDUV RQ )$: HVWDEOLVKPHQW DQG SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ *URVV f VWXGLHG ILHOG VXUYLYDO DQG SHUIRUPDQFH RI PHFKDQLFDOO\ H[WUDFWHG PDJJRWV RI $ PDUPRUDWXV RQ )$: DQG LQGLFDWHG WKDW JRRG ILHOG VXUYLYDO RFFXUUHG ,VHQKRXU DQG :LVHPDQ f UHSRUWHG HIIHFWV RI SDUDVLWLVP RI WKH )$: E\ &DPSROHWLV VRQRUHQVLV &DPHURQf DV DIIHFWHG E\ KRVW IHHGLQJ RQ UHVLVWDQW =HD PD\V / FY =DSDORWH &KLFR 7KH UHVHDUFK GHVFULEHG LQ WKLV FKDSWHU H[DPLQHG WKH XVH RI PHFKDQLFDOO\ H[WUDFWHG ODUYDH RI $ PDUPRUDWXV 7RZQVHQGf DV D ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO DJHQW DJDLQVW )$: LV FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKH XVH RI D OHDIIHHGLQJ UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU RI FRUQ 0S6:&%f 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 7ZR YDULHWLHV RI FRUQ 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6(*f DQG 0S6:&% ZHUH SODQWHG RQ DQ H[SHULPHQWDO IDUP QHDU 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD DQG PDLQWDLQHG DFFRUGLQJ WR UHFRPPHQGHG FXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV 7HVW SORWV HDFK \HDUf ZHUH SODQWHG LQ 0D\ DQG 7KHUH ZHUH WHQ UHSOLFDWHV IRU HDFK FXOWLYDU (DFK UHSOLFDWH FRQWDLQHG SDLUHG URZV RI HDFK FXOWLYDU 3ODQWV LQ WHVW SORW ZHUH XVHG IRU WKH $ PDUPRUDWXV SHUIRUPDQFH VWXG\ E\ DSSO\ )$: QHRQDWH ODUYDH WR ZKRUOV RI

PAGE 85

WKH SODQWV ZKHQ WKH\ UHDFKHG WKH OHDI VWDJH 3ODQWV LQ WHVW SORW ZHUH XVHG DW WKH OHDI VWDJH 7KH $ PDUPRUDWXV $0f FRORQ\ XVHG LQ WKH VWXG\ ZDV PDLQWDLQHG DW WKH 86'$ %LRORJ\ DQG 3RSXODWLRQ 0DQDJHPHQW 5HVHDUFK /DERUDWRU\ ,W KDG EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG LQ IURP ILIWKLQVWDU &(: ODUYDH RFFXUULQJ LQ PLGJUHHQ WDVVHO VWDJHV RI 6LOYHU 4XHHQ VZHHW FRUQ QHDU 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD 86$ $GGLWLRQDO $0 DGXOWV HFORVLQJ IURP SXSDH RI &(: DQG )$: WKDW ZHUH FROOHFWHG LQ VRXWKHUQ *HRUJLD DQG QRUWKHUQ )ORULGD KDG EHHQ DGGHG LQWHUPLWWHQWO\ WR WKH FXOWXUH /DERUDWRU\ FXOWXUHV ZHUH PDLQWDLQHG RQ &(: ODUYDH IURP WKH 7LIWRQ ODERUDWRU\ FRORQ\
PAGE 86

GLVSHQVHU GHYHORSHG E\ :LVHPDQ :LVHPDQ HW DO f )$: HJJV GHSRVLWHG RQ SDSHU WRZHOV ZHUH SODFHG LQ SODVWLF EDJV DQG KHOG DW r& XQWLO KDWFK /DUYDH ZHUH UHPRYHG E\ LQYHUWLQJ WKH EDJV DQG JHQWO\ VKDNLQJ WKH WRZHO ZKLOH LW UHPDLQHG LQ WKH EDJ WR GLVORGJH ODUYDH &RUQFRE JULWV JULWVRnFREV 1R $QGHUVRQnV &RE 'LYLVLRQ 0DXPHH 2KLR f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f $IWHU GD\V IUHVKO\ SUHSDUHG $0 PDJJRWV LQ D PLQL GULIW VXVSHQVLRQ ZHUH GLOXWHG XQWLO DQ H\H GURSSHU GHOLYHUHG ODUYDH DW WKH UDWH RI ODUYDH SHU GURS 2QH GURS RI WKH PDJJRW VXVSHQVLRQ ZDV DSSOLHG GLUHFWO\ LQWR WKH FHQWHUV RI WKH ZKRUOV RI SODQWV LQ HDFK WHVW URZ IRU HDFK UHSOLFDWH SODQWV SHU URZ UHSOLFDWHV SHU YDULHW\ +RVW ODUYDH )$:f ZLWKLQ WKH ZKRUO ZHUH H[SRVHG WR $0 PDJJRWV IRU KUV WKHQ WKH )$: ZHUH UHWULHYHG 7KH VHFRQG URZ RI HDFK UHSOLFDWH IRU HDFK FXOWLYDU ZDV OHIW IRU UDWLQJ OHDI GDPDJH

PAGE 87

DW GD\V 7KLUW\ )$: ODUYDH ZHUH FROOHFWHG IURP HDFK UHSOLFDWH WUD\f DQG SODFHG LQGLYLGXDOO\ RQ D PRGLILHG SLQWR EHDQ GLHW LQ PO SODVWLF GLHW FXSV &RQWURO )$: ODUYDH ZHUH REWDLQHG E\ KDUYHVWLQJ SODQWV IRU HDFK $0f XQWUHDWHG URZ RI HDFK UHSOLFDWH /DUYDH FROOHFWHG IURP WKH ILHOG ZHUH SODFHG LQ 3HUFLYDO *URZWK &KDPEHUV DW s r & /' SKRWRSHULRG DQG s b 5+ (PHUJHQFH RI )$: DQG DOO SDUDVLWHV ZDV QRWHG DQG SHUFHQW SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ FDOFXODWHG 'DWD ZHUH DQDO\]HG E\ 352& */0 6$6f DQG SHUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ YDOXHV ZHUH FKDQJHG YLD DUFVLQ WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ SULRU WR DQDO\VHV 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH f 6FKHIIHnV PHWKRG ZDV XVHG S f WR VHSDUDWH PHDQV 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH f 7KLV PHWKRG RI VHSDUDWLQJ PHDQV LV FRQVLGHUHG WR EH FRQVHUYDWLYH DQG ZDV VHOHFWHG IRU WKDW UHDVRQ 5HVXOWV DQG 'LVFXVVLRQ 7DEOH OLVWV SDUDVLWHV UHDUHG IURP IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH FROOHFWHG IURP 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ DQG 0S6:&% FRUQ LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD GXULQJ WKH PRQWK RI -XQH LQ DQG 7KH WDFKLQLG $ PDUPRUDWXV ZDV DSSOLHG DIWHU PHFKDQLFDO H[WUDFWLRQ IURP IHFXQG IHPDOHV DW WKH UDWH RI ODUYDH SHU SODQW EXW DOO RWKHU SDUDVLWHV HPHUJLQJ IURP WKH )$: ODUYDH UHSUHVHQW QDWXUDO LQIHVWDWLRQV ,Q WKH QDWXUDOO\ RFFXUULQJ LFKQHXPRQLG SDUDVLWRLG 2SKLRQ IODYLGXV %UXOOH RFFXUUHG DW PXFK KLJKHU UDWHV RI SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI )$: WKDQ WKH DUWLILFLDOO\ DSSOLHG

PAGE 88

7$%/( 3DUDVLWHV UHDUHG IURP IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH FROOHFWHG LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD -XQH DQG -XQH +267 3/$17 &RUQ 9$5,(7,(6 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ DQG 0S6:&% %UDFRQLGDH $SDQWHOHV VS &RWHVLD PDUJLQLYHQWULV &UHVVRQf 5RJDV ODSKYTPDH 9LHUHFN (XORSKLGDH (XSOHFWUXV FRPVWRFNLL +RZDUG ,FKQHXPRQLGDH 2SKLRQ IODYLGXV %UXOOH 7DFKLQLGDH $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV 7RZQVHQG

PAGE 89

SDUDVLWRLG $ PDUPRUDWXV )LJXUH f 7KHUH ZHUH KLJKHU UDWHV RI SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ $0 RQ WKH UHVLVWDQW YDULHW\ 0S6:&%f WKDQ RQ WKH VXVFHSWLEOH YDULHW\ 6(* RQ ERWK SORWV EXW WKH GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW S f 7KLV WUHQG ZDV UHYHUVHG ZLWK 2SKLRQ ZKLFK KDG VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU UDWHV RI SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RQ WKH VXVFHSWLEOH YDULHW\ WKDQ RQ WKH UHVLVWDQW ,W KDV EHHQ VXJJHVWHG WKDW 2SKLRQ PD\ EH LQ GLUHFW FRPSHWLWLRQ ZLWK $UFKYWDV LQ WKH ILHOG *URVV f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f )LJXUH f 2SKLRQ IODYLGXV SDUDVLWL]HG b RI )$: ODUYDH FROOHFWHG IURP 6(* DW WKH OHDI VWDJH 7KLV ZDV WKH KLJKHVW UDWH RI SDUDVLWLVP IRXQG LQ IRU D VLQJOH SDUDVLWRLG RI )$: ODUYDH LQ WKH VWXG\ $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV KDG D KLJK RI b 7KH KLJKHVW WRWDO SHUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWLVP ZDV b 7KLV UHSUHVHQWHG SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ WKDW RFFXUUHG IRU RQO\ GD\V

PAGE 90

ZKLOH )$: LQ WKH ZKRUO KDG EHHQ H[SRVHG WR SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ RWKHU QDWXUDOO\ RFFXUULQJ SDUDVLWHV SULRU WR WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI $0 )LJXUH VKRZV WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI WRWDO SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ WKH SDUDVLWRLGV LQ WKH ILHOG VWXG\ 2SKLRQ IODYLGXV ZDV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU DV PXFK DV b RI WRWDO SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ DQG WKLV RFFXUUHG DW WKH OHDI VWDJH RQ 6(* ZKLOH WKH PD[LPXP FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WRWDO SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ $0 ZDV b ZKLFK RFFXUUHG LQ SORW RQ 0S6:&% 2WKHU SDUDVLWHV QDPHO\ &RWHVLD PDUDLQLYHQWULV &UHVVRQf 5RJDV ODSK\FUPDH 9LHUHFN DQG $SDQWHOHV VS WRJHWKHU ZHUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU DV PXFK DV b RI SDUDVLWLVP DW WKH OHDI VWDJH RQ ERWK 6(* DQG 0S6:&% ,Q 2SKLRQ ZDV OHVV SUHYDOHQW WKDQ LQ )LJXUH f /HYHOV RI SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ $0 ZHUH KLJKHU SHUKDSV GXH WR UHGXFHG FRPSHWLWLRQ E\ WKH DEVHQFH RI 2SKLRQ 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ $0 ZDV KLJKHVW RQ WKH OHDI VWDJH RI 6(* DQG ORZHVW RQ 6(* DW WKH OHDI VWDJH 7KH WUHQGV REVHUYHG LQ ZLWK KLJKHU OHYHOV RI SDUDVLWLVP RQ 0S6:&% ZHUH QRW FRQVLVWHQW LQ $0 GLG VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU DW WKH OHDI VWDJH RQ 0S6:&% WKDQ RQ 6(* SDUDVLWL]LQJ b DQG b UHVSHFWLYHO\ RI )$: ODUYDH $W WKH OHDI VWDJH $0 GLG EHWWHU RQ 6(* EXW QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU $ PDUPRUDWXV ZDV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU RYHU b RI WRWDO SDUDVLWLVP IRXQG RQ 6(* DW ERWK VWDJHV RI SODQW GHYHORSPHQW DQG b RI SDUDVLWLVP RQ 0S6:&% )LJXUH 7KH

PAGE 91

)LJXUH 3HUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ DUWLILFLDOO\ DSSOLHG $UFKYWDV PRUPRUDWXV 2SKLRQ IODYLGXV DQG RWKHU SDUDVLWHV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP FROOHFWHG IURP D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ DQG D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU 0S6:&% LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD

PAGE 92

RR RR &7f &2 K XL &/ &/ /G 2 ,f§ / 2 &/ /4B >;-6(* DW OHDI VWDJH O 0S6:25f§ DW f§ OHDI VWDJH (6,6(* DW OHDI VWDJH A‘0S6:&% f§ DW f§ OHDI VWDJH r r ; .O ; ; ; ; W ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; M ‘ 2n $5&+<7$6 3+,1 727$/ 3DUDVLWHV DW f§ DQG f§ OHDI VWDJHV

PAGE 93

)LJXUH 3HUFHQWDJHV RI WRWDO SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI )$: FROOHFWHG IURP 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6f DQG 036:&% 5f FRUQ LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV ZDV DUWLILFLDOO\ DSSOLHG WR ERWK SORWV

PAGE 94

/ XL < &/ ,f§ 2 K XB 2 / 2 / 2 < / &/ Z >6 6(* $7 /($) 67$*( $7 f§ /($) 67$*( 0S6:&% = 6(* $7 /($) 67$*( 0S6:&% f§ $7 /($) 67$*( &2 +L $5&+<7$6 23+,21 27+(5 3DUDVLWHV DW f§ DQG f§ OHDI VWDJH

PAGE 95

)LJXUH 3HUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP FROOHFWHG IURP 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6f DQG 0S6:&% 5f FRUQ SORWV LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD

PAGE 96

3(5&(17$*( 3$5$6,7,60 ,1 (.-6(* DW OHDI VWDJH (=+0S6:&% DW OHDI VWDJH 666(* DW OHDI VWDJH ‘‘0S6:&% DW OHDI VWDJH [ [ [ R U3L $5&+<7$6 23+,21 ; [ [ ; 727$/ 3DUDVLWHV DW f§ DQG f§ OHDI VWDJHV FR R

PAGE 97

)LJXUH 3HUFHQWDJHV RI WRWDO SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH FROOHFWHG IURP 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ VXVFHSWLEOHf FRUQ DQG 0S6:&% UHVLVWDQWf FRUQ LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD

PAGE 98

L +<7$ nDUDVLW ===6(* DW OHDI VWDJH +'0S6:&% DW OHDI VWDJH ===6(* DW OHDI VWDJH ‘‘0S6:&% DW f§ OHDI VWDJH 23+,21 27+(5 DW DQG OHDI VWDJH RR WR

PAGE 99

KLJKHVW OHYHO RI SDUDVLWLVP E\ 2RKLRQ LQ ZDV b DWWDLQHG IURP )$: RQ 0S6:&% DW WKH OHDI VWDJH &RPSDWLELOLW\ RI $0 ZLWK WKH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ YDULHW\ 0S6:&% LV LPSRUWDQW 3HUIRUPDQFH RI $0 DJDLQVW )$: ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHG DW DQ\ WLPH ,Q $0 SHUIRUPHG FRQVLVWHQWO\ EHWWHU RQ 0S6:&% WKDQ RQ 6(* EXW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ QRW VLJQLILFDQWf 7KHUH FDQ EH D QXPEHU RI H[SODQDWLRQV IRU WKH REVHUYHG WUHQG RI LPSURYHG SHUIRUPDQFH RI $0 RQ 0S6:&% $0 PDJJRWV DUH QRW PRELOH :KHQ DSSOLHG WR WKH ZKRUO )$: ODUYDH PRYLQJ ZLWKLQ WKH ZKRUO GXH WR QRQn SUHIHUHQFH IDFWRUV RI UHVLVWDQFH SHUPLW $0 ODUYDH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR SDUDVLWL]H )$: PRUH HDVLO\ WKDQ LI WKH UHVLVWDQFH LQ WKH SODQWV ZHUH QRW PDQLIHVWHG 7KXV DV WKH )$: ODUYDH PRYH PRUH ZLWKLQ WKH ZKRUO RI WKH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ 0S6:&% WKDQ LQ WKH VXVFHSWLEOH 6(* WKHUH LV DQ LQFUHDVHG SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN E\ $0 5RKOIV DQG 0DFN f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

PAGE 100

4SKLRQ DQG RWKHU SDUDVLWRLGV SUHYDOHQW LQ ZHUH OHVV FRPPRQ LQ 5DWHV RI SDUDVLWLVP E\ 4SKLRQ ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ IROG KLJKHU WKDQ $ PDUPRUDWXV LQ ZKLOH WKLV ZDV QRW WKH FDVH LQ $UFK\WDV SDUDVLWL]HG b RI )$: ODUYDH FROOHFWHG IURP 6(* DW WKH OHDI VWDJH ZKLOH 4SKLRQ KDG LWV KLJKHVW OHYHO RI DWWDFN bf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

PAGE 101

&+$37(5 ,9 &2168037,21 '(9(/230(17 $1' )(&81',7< 2) )$// $50<:250 21 672:(//n6 (9(5*5((1 $ 686&(37,%/( &251 &8/7,9$5 $1' 0S6:&% $ 5(6,67$17 &8/7,9$5 $6 $))(&7(' %< 7+( 3$5$6,72,' $5&+<7$6 0$5025$786 6ODQVN\ f UHYLHZHG WKH LPSDFW RI LQVHFW SDUDVLWRLGV RQ WKH SK\VLRORJ\ DQG EHKDYLRU RI WKHLU KRVWV ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH QXWULWLRQDO HFRORJ\ RI SDUDVLWRLGV DQG WKHLU KRVWV $Q LQVHFW KRVW VXFK DV WKH )$: EHFRPHV WKH OLYLQJ VSDFH IRU SDUDVLWRLGV DQG DFWLYH GHIHQVLYH UHVSRQVHV DJDLQVW SDUDVLWRLGV RFFXU DW ERWK EHKDYLRUDO DQG SK\VLRORJLFDO OHYHOV 1XWULHQW FRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH KRVW KHPRO\PSK HJ DPLQR DFLGV SURWHLQV DQG FDUERK\GUDWHVf DQG IDW ERG\ HJ JO\FRJHQf DUH RIWHQ DOWHUHG DIWHU SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ DV DUH KRVW KRUPRQHV DQG PHWDEROLF UDWHV 9LQVRQ DQG ,ZDQWVFK f 6ODQVN\ f VWDWHG EHFDXVH WKH JHQHWLF ILWQHVV RI D SDUDVLWRLG ZLWKLQ D KRVW LV GLUHFWO\ GHSHQGHQW RQ KRVW DFWLYLWLHV QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ ZLOO XQGRXEWHGO\ FRPPRQO\ UHVXOW LQ HYROXWLRQ RI SDUDVLWRLGLQIOXHQFHG FKDQJHV LQ KRVW SK\VLRORJ\ DQG EHKDYLRU WKDW LPSURYH WKH SDUDVLWRLGV ILWQHVV $OVR PHQWLRQHG LV WKH IDFW WKDW LI VXIILFLHQW QXWULHQWV IRU FRPSOHWH SDUDVLWRLG GHYHORSPHQW DUH ODFNLQJ WKHQ FRQWLQXHG IHHGLQJ E\ WKH KRVW ZLOO EH SHUPLWWHG DQG SHUKDSV VWLPXODWHG DERYH WKH XQSDUDVLWL]HG OHYHO E\ WKH

PAGE 102

SDUDVLWH 6R\EHDQ ORRSHU 3VHXGRSOXVLD LQFOXGHQV :DONHUf SDUDVLWL]HG E\ &RSLGRVRPD WUXQFDWHOOXP 'DOPDQf FRQVXPHG XS WR b PRUH IROLDJH WKDQ XQSDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH %HDFK DQG 7RGG f &RQYHUVHO\ ,VHQKRXU f IRXQG WKDW WZR SDUDVLWRLGV RI )$: 5RJDV ODSK\JPDH 9LHUHFN DQG &DPSROHWLV VRQRUHQVLV &DPHURQf ZHUH HIIHFWLYH LQ UHGXFLQJ WKH IHHGLQJ UDWH RI )$: RQ FRUQ DQG VRUJKXP 7KH SUHVHQW VWXG\ LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH )$: ODUYDOSXSDO SDUDVLWRLG $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV 7RZQVHQGf $0f ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH HIIHFWV RI SDUDVLWLVP RQ KRVW JURZWK DQG IHHGLQJ 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV ,QVHFWV DQG 3ODQWV )$: HJJV ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP D FRORQ\ PDLQWDLQHG DW WKH 86'$ ,QVHFW $WWUDFWDQWV DQG %DVLF %LRORJ\ /DERUDWRU\ *DLQHVYLOOH )ORULGD 7KH FRORQ\ DQG H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH s r& DQG DW OHDVW b 5+ +XPLGLW\ ZDV PDLQWDLQHG LQ WKH JURZWK FKDPEHUV E\ XVLQJ D KXPLGLILHU ZLWKLQ WKH FKDPEHU /DUYDH ZHUH UHDUHG RQ OHDYHV RI ILHOG JURZQ 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ DQG 0S6:&% FRUQ 2QO\ ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ ZHUH XVHG LQ WKH SDUDVLWH VWXG\ WR GHWHUPLQH WKH HIIHFW RI $ PDUPRUDWXV RQ IHHGLQJ E\ )$: ODUYDH 7KH\ ZHUH UHDUHG LQ SODVWLF VKRHER[HV [ [ FPf ODUYDH SHU ER[ )UHVK IROLDJH ZDV FXW GDLO\ DQG SODFHG LQ WKH VKRH ER[HV ZLWK ILYH GHQWDO ZLFNV VDWXUDWHG ZLWK ZDWHU

PAGE 103

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b 5+ 3UHSXSDH ZHUH UHPRYHG GULHG DQG ZHLJKHG )HFHV DQG XQHDWHQ OHDYHV ZHUH FROOHFWHG DQG ZHLJKHG GDLO\ WR REWDLQ WKHLU UHVSHFWLYH GU\ ZHLJKWV $ 0HWWOHUr1 EDODQFH +$5 DFFXUDWH WR PJ ZDV XVHG IRU DOO ZHLJKLQJ $OO PDWHULDO ZDV GULHG DW & IRU DW OHDVW KRXUV /DUYDO IRRG FRQVXPSWLRQ JURZWK DQG IRRG XWLOL]DWLRQ LQGLFHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG XVLQJ JUDYLPHWULF WHFKQLTXHV EDVHG RQ GU\ ZHLJKWV 6ODQVN\ DQG 6FULEHU f 3HUIRUPDQFH LQGLFHV LQFOXGHG GD\ SXSDO GU\ ZHLJKW GU\ ZHLJKW JDLQHG GXULQJ WKH ODVW LQVWDU IRRG XWLOL]DWLRQ HIILFLHQFLHV $' $SSUR[LPDWH GLJHVWLELOLW\ (&' (IILFLHQF\ RI FRQYHUVLRQ RI GLJHVWHG IRRG DQG (&, (IILFLHQF\ RI

PAGE 104

FRQYHUVLRQ RI LQJHVWHG IRRGf UHODWLYH JURZWK UDWH5*5f DQG UHODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWH 5&5f 7KHVH SDUDPHWHUV DQG WKHLU LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV DUH GHILQHG LQ WKH DSSHQGL[ $O DIWHU )LQNH f )HFXQGLW\ 6WXG\ /DUYDH ZHUH UHDUHG LQ SODVWLF VKRHER[HV DV GHVFULEHG 3XSDH ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP ER[HV RI HDFK FXOWLYDU DQG VH[HG PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV IURP HDFK FXOWLYDUf 6HSDUDWH VH[HV ZHUH SODFHG LQ SOH[LJODVV FDJHV [[ FPf 8SRQ HPHUJHQFH PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV IURP HDFK FXOWLYDU ZHUH SDLUHG LQ RYLSRVLWLRQ FDJHV VFUHHQ F\OLQGHUV FP [ FPf DQG SURYLGHG n%RXQW\r1 KDQG WRZHO SDSHU DV DQ RYLSRVLWLRQ VXEVWUDWH 7KH SDSHU WRZHO ZDV VHFXUHG E\ D UXEEHU EDQG RYHU WKH WRS RI WKH FDJH 0RWKV ZHUH VXSSOLHG D b VXFURVH VROXWLRQ $OO RYLSRVLWLRQ FDJHV ZHUH KHOG LQ D UHDULQJ FKDPEHU 3HUFLYDO LQFXEDWRU PRGHO ,//Vf DW & DQG b 5+ 2YLSRVLWLRQ VXEVWUDWHV ZHUH UHPRYHG HYHU\ VHFRQG GD\ DQG UHSODFHG $OO VXUIDFHV ZHUH FKHFNHG IRU HJJV DQG DOO HJJV FRXQWHG XQGHU WKH PLFURVFRSH ([SHULPHQWDO 3URFHGXUH IRU 3DUDVLWH 6WXG\ 7R GHWHUPLQH WKH HIIHFWV RI SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ E\ $0 RQ IROLDJH FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI )$: ODUYDH ZHUH UHDUHG RQ IROLDJH XQWLO WKH WK LQVWDU RQ 6(* OHDYHV 0HFKDQLFDOO\ H[WUDFWHG PDJJRWV ZHUH SUHSDUHG DV GHVFULEHG E\ *URVV DQG -RKQVRQ f DQG VXVSHQGHG LQ PO RI D b VROXWLRQ RI K\GUR[\HWK\OFHOOXORVH 0LQLGULIW 6RLOVHUY ,QF

PAGE 105

6DOLQDV &DOLIRUQLDf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

PAGE 106

LQGLFHV IRU $0 SDUDVLWL]HG DQG XQSDUDVLWL]HG WK LQVWDU )$: ODUYDH ZHUH FDOFXODWHG DV SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG XVLQJ JUDYLPHWULF WHFKQLJXHV EDVHG RQ GU\ ZHLJKWV 6ODQVN\ DQG 6FULEHU f $OO H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV ZHUH DQDO\]HG XVLQJ D W WHVW 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH ,QF f 5HVXOWV DQG 'LVFXVVLRQ /DUYDO GU\ ZHLJKWV DQG RWKHU GHYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV RI )$: ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ 6(* DQG 0S6:&% OHDYHV DUH VXPPDUL]HG RQ 7DEOHV DQG /DUYDH UHDUHG RQ 0S6:&% OHDYHV KDG VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU ERG\ ZHLJKW %Lf ILQDO ZHLJKW LQ WKH SUHSXSDO VWDJH %If PHDQ ERG\ ZHLJKW GXULQJ WKH VL[WK LQVWDU 0%f DPRXQW RI IRRG LQJHVWHG ,f DQG TXDQWLW\ RI IUDVV )f SURGXFHG +RZHYHU ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ 6(* OHDYHV KDG VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU UHODWLYH JURZWK UDWH 5*5f HIILFLHQF\ IRU FRQYHUVLRQ RI GLJHVWHG IRRG (&'f DQG HIILFLHQF\ RI FRQYHUVLRQ RI LQJHVWHG IRRG (&,f /DUYDH UHDUHG RQ 6(* DOVR SXSDWHG LQ VLJQLILFDQWO\ OHVV WLPH )LJXUH LOOXVWUDWHV WKH IUHVK ZHLJKWV DQG GU\ ZHLJKWV RI SXSDH RI )$: UHDUHG RQ 6(* DQG 0S6:&% OHDYHV 7KHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ SXSDO ZHLJKWV 6DPSOH VL]HV DQG GDWD IRU SXSDO ZHLJKWV DQG QXPEHU RI HJJV ODLG E\ IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ WKH FXOWLYDUV PD\ EH IRXQG LQ 7DEOH $ LQ WKH DSSHQGL[f )LJXUH LOOXVWUDWHV WKH PHDQ QXPEHU RI HJJV ODLG E\ IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ 6(* DQG 0S6:&% OHDYHV 7KHUH ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ PHDQ QXPEHU RI HJJV

PAGE 107

7$%/( 'HYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP WK LQVWDU ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ OHDYHV RI D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf DQG D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU 0S6:&%f 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3DUDPHWHUV &XOWLYDU %L %I % 0% ) 7 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ D f D f FO f D f D f D f D f 0S6:&% E f E f D f E f E f E f E f $OO PHDVXUHPHQWV H[SUHVVHG LQ PJ GU\ ZHLJKW WLPH PHDVXUHG LQ GD\V 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ VWDQGDUG HUURUf" LQ HDFK FROXPQ YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S W WHVWf 3DUDPHWHUV DUH GHILQHG LQ 7DEOH $O 6DPSOH VL]HV ZHUH 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf DQG 0S6:&%f D

PAGE 108

7$%/( 'HYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP WK LQVWDU ODUYDH UHDUHG RQ OHDYHV RI D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf DQG D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU 0S6:&% 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3DUDPHWHUV &XOWLYDU $' (&' (&, 5&5 5*5 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ D f D f D f D f D f 0S6:&% D f D f E f D f E f D 3DUDPHWHUV GHILQHG LQ 7DEOH $O 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ VWG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S W WHVWf 3DUDPHWHUV DUH GHILQHG LQ 7DEOH $O 6DPSOH VL]HV ZHUH 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf DQG 0S6:&%f

PAGE 109

)LJXUH )UHVK ZHLJKW DQG GU\ ZHLJKW RI SXSDH RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ OHDYHV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDUf DQG 0S6;&% FRUQ UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDUf

PAGE 110

/ ? O IUHVK ZHLJKW / GU\ ZHLJKW 6(* 0S6:&% f§ &8/7,9$5

PAGE 111

)LJXUH 0HDQ QXPEHU RI HJJV ODLG E\ IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ OHDYHV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDUf DQG 0S6:&% FRUQ UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDUf

PAGE 112

6(* 0S6:&% f§ &8/7,9$5

PAGE 113

)LJXUH )UHVK ZHLJKWV RI WK LQVWDU IDOO DUP\ZURP ODUYDH SDUDVLWL]HG E\ $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV DQG XQSDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH

PAGE 114

'$< (= )$: 3$5$6,7,=(' %< $0 (=' 813$5$6,7,=(' 3$: YR RR '$<6 $)7(5 (;32685( 72 $0

PAGE 115

7$%/( (IIHFW RI SDUDVLWLVP E\ $ PDUPRUDWXV RQ )$: ODUYDH &RQVXPSWLRQ JURZWK DQG ELRPDVV SDUDPHWHUV 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3DUDPHWHUV %L %I 0% % ) 3DUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH D D D D D D f f f f f f 8QSDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH D D D D D D f f f f f f $OO SDUDPHWHUV GHILQHG LQ 7DEOH $ 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ VWG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S W WHVWf

PAGE 116

7$%/( (IIHFW RI SDUDVLWLVP E\ $ PDUPRUDWXV RQ ODVW LQVWDU IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHHGLQJ HIILFLHQFLHV FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG JURZWK UDWHV 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3DUDPHWHUV $' (&' (&, 5&5 5*5 3DUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH D f D f D f D f D f 8QSDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH D f D f D f E f D f D $OO SDUDPHWHUV GHILQHG LQ 7DEOH $O 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ VWG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S W WHVWf

PAGE 117

ODLG ZLWK IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ 6(* OHDYHV OD\LQJ VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH HJJV WKDQ IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ 0S6:&% OHDYHV )LJ LOOXVWUDWHV WKH PHDQ IUHVK ZHLJKWV PJf RI SDUDVLWL]HG DQG XQSDUDVLWL]HG WK LQVWDU )$: ODUYDH IRU GD\V DIWHU LQWURGXFLQJ WKH SDUDVLWH 7KHUH ZDV D VOLJKW LQFUHDVH LQ ERG\ ZHLJKW RI GD\ ROG SDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH RYHU XQSDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH $QDO\VHV RYHU GD\V GLG QRW LQGLFDWH DQ\ VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ ZHLJKWV EHWZHHQ WKH SDUDVLWL]HG DQG XQSDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH KRZHYHU /DUYDO GU\ ZHLJKWV DQG RWKHU GHYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH 3DUDVLWL]HG )$: KDG D VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU 5&5 WKDQ GLG XQSDUDVLWL]HG )$: ODUYDH 7DEOH f 7KHUH ZHUH QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV DPRQJ DQ\ RI WKH RWKHU GHYHORSPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV )RRG LQWDNH XWLOL]DWLRQ DQG DOORFDWLRQ FDQ EH DOWHUHG LQ DQ DGDSWLYH PDQQHU LQ UHVSRQVH WR H[WULQVLF DQG LQWULQVLF IDFWRUV 6ODQVN\ DQG 5RGULJXH] f ,QFUHDVH LQ IROLDJH FRQVXPSWLRQ GLVSOD\HG E\ SDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH LV ZHOO NQRZQ HJ %HDFK DQG 7RGG f DQG +XQWHU DQG 6WRQHU f 7KLV PD\ UHSUHVHQW DQ DGDSWDWLRQ LQ UHVSRQVH WR WKH SDUDVLWH $ SDUDVLWL]HG ODUYD LV VXSSRUWLQJ QRW RQO\ LWVHOI EXW DOVR WKH SDUDVLWRLG DQG PD\ DGDSW WR WKH VLWXDWLRQ E\ LQFUHDVLQJ LWV RZQ WRWDO LQJHVWLRQ 6ODQVN\ DQG 6FULEHU f VWDWHG WKDW HIIHFWV RI SDUDVLWRLGV LQFOXGH VXEVWDQWLDO LPSDFW RQ WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG XWLOL]DWLRQ RI IRRG E\ WKHLU KRVWV ZKHUHDV KRVW GHYHORSPHQWDO WLPH VHHPV WR EH OHVV IUHTXHQWO\ DIIHFWHG

PAGE 118

6ODQVN\ f GLVFXVVHG WZR SRVVLEOH HIIHFWV WKH SDUDVLWRLG FDQ KDYH RQ D KRVW ZLWK VRPH KRVWV H[KLELWLQJ DQ LQFUHDVH LQ IHHGLQJ DQG RWKHUV FDXVLQJ DQ LQKLELWRU\ HIIHFW ZKLFK UHVXOWV LQ WKH KRVW GHFUHDVLQJ LWV IRRG FRQVXPSWLRQ 7KRPSVRQ f SRLQWHG RXW WKDW LQ JHQHUDO VSHFLHV RI LFKQHXPRQLG SDUDVLWHV UHGXFH JURZWK UDWHV RI WKHLU KRVWV WR D JUHDWHU H[WHQW WKDQ EUDFRQLG VSHFLHV DQG JURZWK UDWHV DUH UHGXFHG PRUH VHYHUHO\ LQ WKH ODVW LQVWDUV 7KH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI LQFUHDVHG FRQVXPSWLRQ E\ SDUDVLWL]HG ODUYDH QHHGV WR EH DGGUHVVHG LQ FRQVLGHULQJ WKH HPSOR\PHQW RI $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV LQ ,30

PAGE 119

&+$37(5 9 ())(&7 2) 5(6,67$17 $1' 686&(37,%/( &251 &8/7,9$56 21 0,&52620$/ 02122;<*(1$6(6 $1' ,16(&7,&,'( 686&(37,%,/,7< 2) 7+( )$// $50<:250 *HQHUDO 'HVFULSWLRQ RI 0L[HG )XQFWLRQ 2[LGDVHV 0L[HG IXQFWLRQ R[LGDVHV 0)2f DOVR UHIHUUHG WR DV F\WRFKURPH 3GHSHQGHQW PRQRR[\JHQDVHV DUH WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW GHWR[LILFDWLRQ HQ]\PHV LQ LQVHFWV DQG DUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH HQGRSODVPLF UHWLFXOXP D FHOO PHPEUDQH 7KH WHUP PL[HG IXQFWLRQ R[LGDVHV UHIHUV WR WKH IDFW WKDW WKHLU DFWLRQ UHGXFHV R[\JHQ SURGXFHV + DQG WKHUH LV FRQFRPLWDQW R[LGDWLRQ RI WKH VXEVWUDWH +RGJVRQ Df 7KH VHFRQG QDPH PRQRR[\JHQDVHV UHODWHV WR R[LGDWLRQ UHDFWLRQV WKDW DOZD\V UHVXOW LQ WKH LQVHUWLRQ RI RQH R[\JHQ DWRP LQWR WKH [HQRELRWLF PROHFXOH ,Q LQVHFWV WKH PDLQ WLVVXH VRXUFHV RI WKHVH HQ]\PHV DUH WKH IDW ERG\ DQG WKH PLGJXW .ULHJHU HW D-/ :LONLQVRQ DQG %UDWWVWHQ f 7KH 0)2 V\VWHP LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ f UHTXLULQJ 1$'3+ DV D FRIDFWRU IRU DFWLYLW\ f UHTXLULQJ PROHFXODU R[\JHQ DQG f KDYLQJ D EURDG VXEVWUDWH VSHFLILFLW\ 7KH 0)2 V\VWHP LV FDSDEOH RI R[LGL]LQJ PDQ\ [HQRELRWLFV DQG HQGRJHQRXV FRPSRXQGV

PAGE 120

(OHFWURQ WUDQVSRUW V\VWHP 7KH PLFURVRPDO R[LGDVH V\VWHP LV DFWXDOO\ D V\VWHP RI HQ]\PHV DQG D FRIDFWRU DV VKRZQ LQ ILJXUH 7KH HQ]\PHV DSSHDU WR EH HPEHGGHG LQ WKH HQGRSODVPLF UHWLFXOXP LQ VXFK D ZD\ WKDW PRUH SRODU RU ZDWHU VROXEOH FRPSRXQGV GR QRW PDNH FRQWDFW ZKHUHDV OHVV SRODU OLSLG VROXEOH FRPSRXQGV DUH FRQWDFWHG SURYLGLQJ VHOHFWLYLW\ IRU OLSRSKLOLF [HQRELRWLFV 7KH LQVHFW 0)2 V\VWHP KDV EHHQ WKRURXJKO\ UHYLHZHG E\ :LONLQVRQ DQG %UDWWVWHQ f DQG +RGJVRQ f 2[LGDWLRQ LV DFFRPSOLVKHG E\ D IORZ RI HOHFWURQV IURP 1$'3+ JHQHUDWHG HOVHZKHUH LQ WKH FHOOf WR WKH IODYRSURWHLQ )3f 1$'3+F\WRFKURPH 3 UHGXFWDVH &35f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f 7KH UROH RI F\WRFKURPH 3 LQ WKH PHWDEROLVP RI LQVHFWLFLGHV LV GLVFXVVHG LQ +RGJVRQ f

PAGE 121

52+ +2+ + )LJ 6FKHPDWLF UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH F\WRFKURPH 3GHSHQGHQW PLFURVRPDO 0)2 V\VWHP

PAGE 122

6XEVWUDWH 6SHFLILFLW\ 'HWR[LILFDWLRQ RI [HQRELRWLFV FDQ EH GLYLGHG LQWR SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ UHDFWLRQV 7KH SULPDU\ UHDFWLRQV LQYROYH R[LGDWLRQ K\GURO\VLV UHGXFWLRQ DQG JOXWDWKLRQH FRQMXJDWLRQ RI [HQRELRWLFV WR SURGXFH SRODU HQGSURGXFWV ZKLOH WKH VHFRQGDU\ UHDFWLRQV UHVXOW LQ ZDWHU VROXEOH FRQMXJDWHV 7KHUH DUH PDLQ HQ]\PH V\VWHPV WKDW DUH GRPLQDQW LQ SULPDU\ UHDFWLRQV 7KHVH DUH f PLFURVRPDO R[LGDVHV f K\GURODVHV DQG f JOXWDWKLRQH 6WUDQVIHUDVHV 2[LGDWLRQ UHDFWLRQV LQYROYLQJ PLFURVRPDO R[LGDVHV DUH E\ IDU WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW 7KLV LV EHFDXVH QHDUO\ DOO RI WKH IXQFWLRQDO JURXSV IRXQG LQ OLSRSKLOLF RUJDQLF FRPSRXQGV DUH VXVFHSWLEOH WR PLFURVRPDO R[LGDWLRQ RU DUH DWWDFNHG E\ WKH V\VWHP 7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW RI WKHVH DUH (SR[LGDWLRQ 5 &+ &+ 5 f§! 5 &+ &+ 5 f f 6XOIR[LGDWLRQ 5 6 5 f§! 5 6 5 6 OL 'HVXOIXUDWLRQ 5W 5 3 ; f§! 5 5 3 ; 6 1 RU 2 GHDON\ODWLRQ 5 1+ f &+ f§! 5 1++f FKR +\GUR[\ODWLRQ 5 &+ f§! 5 &++ 1RW DOO RI UHDFWLRQV UHVXOW LQ GHWR[LILFDWLRQ 7KH VXOIR[LGDWLRQV DQG SKRVSKRURWKLRDWH R[LGDWLRQV

PAGE 123

GHVXOIXUDWLRQVf QHDUO\ DOZD\V UHVXOW LQ DFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH WR[LF PROHFXOH LQFUHDVLQJ LWV WR[LFLW\ 6RPH RI WKH SURGXFWV FRQWDLQLQJ WKH R[\JHQ DQDORJV 3 RU 6 ELQG PRUH WLJKWO\ WR WKH HQ]\PH DFHW\O FKROLQHVWHUDVH $&/(f UHVXOWLQJ LQ VWURQJHU LQKLELWLRQ &RUEHWW f (SR[LGDWLRQ DOVR FDQ UHVXOW LQ DFWLYDWLRQ $OGULQ LV FRQYHUWHG WR GLHOGULQ DQG KHSWDFKORU WR LWV HSR[LGH (SR[LGHV DUH PRUH VWDEOH WKDQ WKHLU SUHFXUVRUV DQG WKHUHIRUH WKHLU SHUVLVWHQFH LV LQFUHDVHG 6RPH HSR[LGHV DOVR DUH FDUFLQRJHQLF DQG DUH HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWDQWV 7KH\ DUH UHDFWLYH DQG PD\ IRUP FRYDOHQW ERQGV ZLWK '1$ &RUEHWW f 7KH 0)2 DOVR DUH LPSRUWDQW EHFDXVH RQH RI WKH IXQFWLRQDO JURXSV DWWDFNHG E\ WKH V\VWHP LV SUHVHQW LQ QHDUO\ HYHU\ SHVWLFLGH $OPRVW DQ\ ELRORJLFDOO\ DFWLYH FRPSRXQG FDQ EH GHJUDGHG E\ WKH HQ]\PHV 'HYHORSPHQW RI UHVLVWDQFH VHHPV WR EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D JHQHUDO LQFUHDVH LQ DOO W\SHV RI 0)2 DFWLYLW\ &DVVLGD f 0)2 SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW SDUW LQ IHHGLQJ VLQFH DOO SODQWV FRQWDLQ GHIHQVLYH FRPSRXQGV VRPH RI ZKLFK DUH WR[LF 7HUULHUH f GLVFXVVHG WKDW VRPH KRVW SODQWV RI SK\WRSKDJRXV LQVHFWV LQGXFH 0)2 DQG VSHFXODWHG WKDW WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI LQGXFWLRQ PD\ KDYH HYROYHG IURP WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ KHUELYRURXV LQVHFWV WKHLU KRVW SODQWV DQG DQ DGDSWDWLRQ LQ IHHGLQJ 7KH HIIHFWV RI KRVW SODQWV DQG DOOHORFKHPLFDOV RQ 0)2 DQG LQVHFWLFLGH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ KDYH EHHQ UHVHDUFKHG LQ VHYHUDO SK\WRSKDJRXV LQVHFWV LQFOXGLQJ WKH IDOO DUP\ZRUP
PAGE 124

7KH FRQFHSW RI LQGXFWLRQ RI 0)2 PD\ SURYH WR EH LPSRUWDQW LQ SHVW PDQDJHPHQW HVSHFLDOO\ VLQFH WKHUH LV HYLGHQFH RI LQGXFWLRQ E\ KRVW SODQWV
PAGE 125

(YHUJUHHQ DQG WKH UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU 0S6:&% ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG IRU WKUHH FRPPRQO\ XVHG SHVWLFLGHV 7KH WKUHH FRPSRXQGV UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKUHH GLIIHUHQW JURXSV RI LQVHFWLFLGHV ZHUH PHWKRP\O D FDUEDPDWH GXUVEDQ DQ RUJDQRSKRVSKDWH DQG ELIHQWKULQ D V\QWKHWLF S\UHWKULQ 0DWHULDOV DQG PHWKRGV 3ODQWV DQG 'LHWV 6HHGV RI FRUQ JHQRW\SHV 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 6(*f D VZHHW FRUQ DQG 0S6:&% f ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP 'U % 5 :LVHPDQ RI WKH 86'$ LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD DQG SODQWHG LQ *DLQHVYLOOH )ORULGD 6WDQGDUG FXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV ZHUH HPSOR\HG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR IHUWLOLW\ DQG ZHHG FRQWURO 1R VRLO RU IROLDU LQVHFWLFLGHV ZHUH XVHG 6(* LV D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ ZKLOH 0S6:&% LV D FXOWLYDU WKDW ZDV GHYHORSHG IRU OHDIn IHHGLQJ UHVLVWDQFH WR WKH VRXWKZHVWHUQ FRUQ ERUHU 'LDWUDHD JUDQGLRVHOOD '\DUf KRZHYHU LW DOVR KDV OHDIIHHGLQJ UHVLVWDQFH WR WKH )$: 'DYLV HW DO f 3ODQWV ZHUH JURZQ LQ ODUJH EODFN SODVWLF SRWV FP [ FPf LQ WKH JUHHQKRXVH LQ WKH ILHOG EHKLQG WKH 86'$ $WWUDFWDQWV /DERUDWRU\ LQ *DLQHVYLOOH DQG LQ DQ HQYLURQPHQWDO FKDPEHU ZLWK DQ H[WHQGHG SKRWRSHULRG KRXUf 3DLQWHU f LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH UHVLVWDQW SODQW LV DOZD\V UHVLVWDQW XQGHU WKH VDPH HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV ,I WKH HQYLURQPHQW FKDQJHV WKH OHYHO RI UHVLVWDQFH PD\ FKDQJH EXW QRW DOZD\V $ WKLUG FXOWLYDU RI FRUQ XVHG LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWV ZDV =DSDORWH &KLFR =&f :LVHPDQ DQG :LGVWURP f UHSRUWHG

PAGE 126

HYLGHQFH WKDW ERWK QRQSUHIHUHQFH DQG DQWLELRVLV UHVLVWDQFH WR IHHGLQJ DUH PDQLIHVWHG LQ WKH VLONV RI =& WR )$: DQG +HOLFRYHUSD ]HD %RGGLHf =& =DSDORWH &KLFRf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f SHU ER[ LQ HQYLURQPHQWDO FKDPEHUV DW r& ZLWK D /' SKRWRSHULRG +XPLGLW\ ZLWKLQ WKH FKDPEHUV ZDV PDLQWDLQHG DW b s 2QO\ VL[WK LQVWDU ODUYDH ZHUH XVHG IRU ERWK HQ]\PH DVVD\V DQG ELRDVVD\V IRU LQVHFWLFLGH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 1HZO\ PROWHG ILIWK DQG VL[WK LQVWDUV ZHUH DOZD\V V\QFKURQL]HG WR EH RI WKH VDPH SK\VLRORJLFDO DJH IRU H[SHULPHQWV &KHPLFDOV $QDO\WLFDO JUDGH DOGULQ DQG GLHOGULQ ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP

PAGE 127

,OO 6KHOO &KHPLFDO &RPSDQ\ 0RGHVWR &DOLIRUQLD DV ZDV PHWKRP\O 1XGULQ5f b SXULW\f &KORUS\ULIRV 'XUVEDQ5f b SXULW\f ZDV REWDLQHG IURP 'RZ &KHPLFDO &RPSDQ\ 0LGODQG 0LFKLJDQ %LIHQWKULQ &DSWXUH5f b SXULW\f ZDV VXSSOLHG E\ )0& &RUSRUDWLRQ 1HZ
PAGE 128

JULQGHU IRU VHF 7KH KRPRJHQDWH ZDV ILOWHUHG WKURXJK FKHHVHFORWK DQG LPPHGLDWHO\ XVHG DV WKH HQ]\PH VRXUFH 7KH SURWHLQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI HDFK SUHSDUDWLRQ ZDV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH PHWKRG RI %UDGIRUG f XVLQJ ERYLQH VHUXP DOEXPLQ DV WKH VWDQGDUG (Q]\PH $VVD\V 7KH DFWLYLW\ RI DOGULQ HSR[LGDVH ZDV PHDVXUHG DV D UHSUHVHQWDWLYH PLFURVRPDO R[LGDVH 0)2 DFWLYLW\ RI )$: KDV EHHQ LQYHVWLJDWHG E\
PAGE 129

SDFNHG ZLWK D PL[WXUH RI b '& DQG b 4) RQ PHVK KLJKSHUIRUPDQFH &KURPRVRUE : ZDV XVHG 7KH RSHUDWLQJ FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH r& GHWHFWRU r& LQMHFWRU SRUW r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f /'nV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW

PAGE 130

LI WKH b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f 7KHUH ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW GHFUHDVH LQ HSR[LGDVH DFWLYLW\ IRU ODUYDH IHG =& J DQG =& J GLHWV 7KHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ DOGULQ HSR[LGDVH DFWLYLW\ IRU ODUYDH IHG WKH =& J ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR WKH FRQWURO GLHW 7KH )$: PD\ QRW EH VWUHVVHG E\ WKH LQGXFWLRQ RI 0)2 QRWHG ZLWK 0S6:&% KRZHYHU WKH SUHVHQFH RI VRPH FRPSRQHQW RI =DSDORWH &KLFR VLONV ZKLFK DSSHDUV WR LQKLELW 0)2 PD\ UHODWH WR WKH SRRU SHUIRUPDQFH RI )$: RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ =&

PAGE 131

7$%/( $OGULQ HSR[LGDVH DFWLYLWLHV RI )DOO DUP\ZRUP /DUYDH IHG YDULRXV GLHWV RI UHVLVWDQW DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU OHDYHV 'LHW $OGULQ HSR[LGDVH SPROPLQPJ SURWHLQ /DUYDO ERG\ ZHLJKW J ):f 0HULGLF GLHW F 6WRZHOOV (YHUJUHHQ 5fD F 0S6:&% 5f E 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ )f E 0S6:&% )f D 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ &f G 0S6:&% &f E 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ *+f E 0S6:&% *+f E D E 5f 7ZR GD\ ROG VL[WK LQVWDU ODUYDH UHDUHG IURP HJJV RQ OHDYHV )f /DUYDH UHDUHG WLOO QHZO\ PROWHG VL[WK LQVWDU RQ PHULGLF GLHW WKHQ RQ ILHOG JURZQ OHDYHV IRU GD\V SULRU WR DVVD\ &f /DUYDH UHDUHG WLOO QHZO\ PROWHG VL[WK LQVWDU RQ PHULGLF GLHW WKHQ RQ ODERUDWRU\ JURZWK FKDPEHU JURZQ FRUQ OHDYHV IRU GD\V SULRU WR DVVD\ *+f /DUYDH UHDUHG WLOO VL[WK LQVWDU RQ PHULGLF GLHW WKHQ RQ JUHHQKRXVH JURZQ FRUQ OHDYHV IRU GD\V SULRU WR DVVD\ 0HDQ s 6( RI DW OHDVW H[SHULPHQWV HDFK LQ GXSOLFDWH ,Q FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S ‘ 6FKHIIHnVf

PAGE 132

7$%/( 0LFURVRPDO R[LGDVH DFWLYLWLHV RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH IHG D PHULGLF GLHW FRQWDLQLQJ YDULRXV FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI VLONV RI D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFRf DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf 'LHW $OGULQ HSR[LGDVHE SPROPLQPJ SURWHLQf /DUYDO DW DVVD\ ZHLJKW JP ):Wf 0HULGLF GLHW s =DSDORWH FKLFR J s =DSDORWH FKLFR J s =DSDORWH FKLFR J s D 1HZO\ PROWHG VL[WKLQVWDU ODUYDH ZHUH IHG GLHW FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV IRU GD\V SULRU WR HQ]\PH DVVD\V E 0HDQ s 6( RI WKUHH H[SHULPHQWV HDFK ZLWK GXSOLFDWH GHWHUPLQDWLRQV

PAGE 133

VLONV EHFDXVH WKH VDPH FRQVWLWXHQWV PD\ EH GHWULPHQWDO WR ODUYDO VXUYLYDO DQG JURZWK 7KH LQGXFWLRQ RI PLFURVRPDO R[LGDVHV E\ KRVW SODQWV LQ WKH IDOO DUP\ZRUP KDV EHHQ GRFXPHQWHG
PAGE 134

7$%/( 7R[LFLW\ RI LQVHFWLFLGHV DSSOLHG WRSLFDOO\ WR WKH )DOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHGr RQ D VXVFHSWLEOH DQG UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDUV ,QVHFWLFLGH 6ORSH s 6( )$: RQ 6(* 6ORSH )$: RQ 036:&% /' b )/f 6( OG b )/f 0HWKRP\O s f f &KORUS\ULIRV s f f %LIHQWKULQ s f f r $OO SODQWV ZHUH ILHOG JURZQ DQG IUHVK OHDYHV IHG WR LQVHFWV IURP HJJ VWDJH WLOO GD\ ROG VL[WK LQVWDU

PAGE 135

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
PAGE 136

UHVLVWDQW FRUQ OHDYHV
PAGE 137

&+$37(5 9, 6800$5< $1' &21&/86,216 7KH HIIHFWV RI IHHGLQJ RQ =DSDORWH &KLFR D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU RI FRUQ >=HD PD\V /f@ E\ 6SRGRSWHUD IUXJLSHUGD ( 6PLWKf )$:f ZDV LQYHVWLJDWHG $OVR LQYHVWLJDWHG ZDV WKH HIIHFW RI WKH SDUDVLWRLG $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV 7RZQVHQGf RQ )$: IHHGLQJ DQG JURZWK 7KH WULWURSKLF LQWHUDFWLRQV DPRQJ D UHVLVWDQW YDULHW\ RI FRUQ 0S6:&%f )$: DQG $A PDUPRUDWXV D QDWXUDO HQHP\ RI )$: ZDV HYDOXDWHG )LHOG H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG RYHU WZR \HDUV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH FRPSDWLELOLW\ RI 0S6:&% D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU RI FRUQ DQG WKH )$: QDWXUDO HQHP\ $BrB PDUPRUDWDV (IIHFWV RI IHHGLQJ RQ 0S6:&% DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ RQ WKH GHWR[LILFDWLRQ HQ]\PHV RI )$: DV ZHOO DV RQ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ WR JURXSV RI LQVHFWLFLGHV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG 5HVXOWV RI WKHVH H[SHULPHQWV PDNH SRVVLEOH WKH VXJJHVWLRQ RI SRVVLEOH VWUDWHJLHV WKDW FDQ EH DSSOLHG WRZDUG WKH LQWHJUDWHG SHVW PDQDJHPHQW RI )$: RQ FRUQ :KHUH SDUDVLWRLGV WKDW DWWDFN ODWH LQVWDUV RI LQVHFW SHVWV DUH HYDOXDWHG IRU WKHLU LPSDFW RQ D SHVW SODQW GDPDJH E\ WKH SHVW RFFXUV IRU PRVW RI WKH OLIH F\FOH RI WKH SHVW 3ODQW UHVLVWDQFH PD\ EH HPSOR\HG WR OHVVHQ WKH GDPDJH DQGRU UHGXFH WKH SRSXODWLRQV LQ WKH QH[W JHQHUDWLRQ RI WKH SHVW

PAGE 138

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f GLVFXVVHG FRPSHQVDWRU\ UHVSRQVHV RI )$: ZKHQ IHG ZDWHU DQG FHOOXORVHGLOXWHG GLHWV 7KH\ GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH FRPSHQVDWRU\ IHHGLQJ DELOLW\ RI )$: LQ UHVSRQVH WR GLHWV GLOXWHG ZLWK FHOOXORVH RU ZDWHU 7KH IHHGLQJ VWXG\ GHWHUPLQHG VRPH HIIHFWV RI IHHGLQJ RQ VLONV RI WKH UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR RI )$: DOVR GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH FRPSHQVDWRU\ DELOLW\ RI )$: WR DGDSW WR GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ DQWLELRWLF IDFWRUV 7KH IHHGLQJ LQKLELWLRQWR[LFLW\ VWXG\ VKRZHG WKDW FHUWDLQ JXDQWLWLHV RI =& VLON LQ WKH PHULGLF GLHW SURYHG WR EH WR[LF WR )$: HJ J DQG J LQ PO RI PHULGLF

PAGE 139

GLHWf 7KLV WR[LFLW\ PD\ EH WKH GLUHFW FDXVH RI D UHGXFWLRQ LQ UHODWLYH JURZWK DQG UHODWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ UDWHV 'HFUHDVHG HIILFLHQF\ WR FRQYHUW LQJHVWHG IRRG LQWR LQVHFW WLVVXH DQG WKH VLJQLILFDQW GHFUHDVH LQ PHDQ ERG\ ZHLJKW DOVR DSSHDUV WR KDYH EHHQ D UHVXOW RI D WR[LF IDFWRU LQ WKH =& VLONV 7R[LFLW\ PD\ KDYH EHHQ WKH XQGHUO\LQJ FDXVH RI WKH REVHUYHG LQFUHDVH LQ GHYHORSPHQWDO WLPH GHFUHDVHG SXSDO ZHLJKWV DQG GHFUHDVHG IHFXQGLW\ IRU )$: IHHGLQJ RQ WKH VLON GLHWV )HHQ\ f VXJJHVWHG WKDW FHUWDLQ FRPSRXQGV DOOHORFKHPLFDOVf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

PAGE 140

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f FXOWLYDU $0 FDQ EH XVHG LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK 0S6:FE ,W ZRXOG EH XVHIXO WR H[SORUH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI EURDGFDVWLQJ $0 WKURXJK LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU 7KH FRPELQHG SRSXODWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ HIIHFWV RI $0 DQG SODQW UHVLVWDQFH RI 0S6:&% ZRXOG PLWLJDWH WKH QHHG IRU FKHPLFDO FRQWURO 6WXGLHV RQ WKH LPSDFW RI YDULRXV SHVWLFLGHV XVHG DJDLQVW )$: RQ FRUQ RQ QDWXUDO HQHPLHV RI

PAGE 141

)$: DUH QHHGHG 3ODQW UHVLVWDQFH LQ WKLV VWXG\ VKRZHG VRPH LQFRPSDWLELOLW\ ZLWK LQVHFWLFLGHV WKHUHIRUH LW LV VXJHVWHG WKDW SODQW UHVLVWDQFH DQG QDWXUDO HQHPLHV EH XVHG DV VWUDWHJLHV IRU ,30 RI )$: RQ FRUQ

PAGE 142

5()(5(1&(6 $VKOH\ 7 5 &ODVVLILFDWLRQ DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP SDUDVLWRLGV )OD (QWRPRO %DUERVD 3 DQG /H7RXUQHDX (GVf 1RYHO DVSHFWV RI LQVHFW SODQW LQWHUDFWLRQV 1HZ
PAGE 143

%RHWKHO DQG 5 (LNHQEDU\ (GVf ,QWHUDFWLRQV RI SODQW UHVLVWDQFH DQG SDUDVLWRLGV DQG SUHGDWRUV RI LQVHFWV -RKQ :LOH\ DQG 6RQV 1HZ
PAGE 144

)HHQ\ 3 3ODQW DSSDUHQF\ DQG FKHPLFDO GHIHQVH ,Q %LRFKHPLFDO LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ SODQWV DQG LQVHFWV :DOODFH DQG 5 0DQVHOO (GVf 5HF $GY 3K\WRFKHP SS )LQNH 0 )DFWRUV FRQWUROOLQJ WKH VHDVRQDO IRRG SODQW XWLOL]DWLRQ E\ ODUYDH RI WKH VSHFLDOL]HG KHUELYRUH 3DSLOLR SROYVFHQHV /HSLGRSWHUDf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f )LHOG VXUYLYDO DQG SHUIRUPDQFH RI PHFKDQLFDOO\ H[WUDFWHG PDJJRWV (QYLURQ (QWRPRO f *URVV + 5 -U DQG 5 -RKQVRQ $UFKYWDV PDUPRUDWXV 'LSWHUD7DFKLQLGDHf DGYDQFHV LQ UHDULQJ DQG DVVRFLDWHG ELRORJLFDO VWXGLHV (FRQ (QWRPRO *URVV + 5 -U 6 3DLU DQG 5 -DFNVRQ %HKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV RI SULPDU\ HQWRPRSKDJRXV SUHGDWRUV WR ODUYDO KRPRJHQDWHV RI +HOLRWKLV ]HD DQG 6SRGRSWHUD IUXJLSHUGD /HSLGRSWHUD 1RFWXLGDHf LQ ZKRUOVWDJH FRUQ (QYLURQ (QWRPRO *URVV + 5 -U DQG 6 3DLU 7KH IDOO DUP\ZRUP VWDWXV DQG H[SHFWDWLRQV RI ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO ZLWK SDUDVLWRLGV DQG SUHGDWRUV )OD (QWRPRO f

PAGE 145

*URVV + 5 -U % 5 :LVHPDQ DQG : : 0F0LOOLDQ &RPSDUDWLYH VXLWDELOLW\ RI ZKRUO VWDJHV RI VZHHW FRUQ IRU HVWDEOLVKPHQW E\ ODUYDH RI WKH FRUQ HDUZRUP (QYLURQ (QWRPRO *URVV + 5 -U DQG 3
PAGE 146

.HD : & 6 $ 7XUQLSVHHG DQG 5 *DUQHU ,QIOXHQFH RI UHVLVWDQW VR\EHDQV RQ WKH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RI OHSLGRSWHURXV SHVWV WR LQVHFWLFLGHV (FRQ (QW .HQQHG\ * DQG & 0DUJROLHV 0RELOH DUWKURSRG SHVWV 0DQDJHPHQW LQ GLYHUVLILHG DJURHFRV\VWHPV %XOO (QWRPRO 6RF $PHU f .ULHJHU 5 & ) :LONLQVRQ / +LFNV DQG ( ) 7DVFKHQEHUUJ $OGULQ HSR[LGDWLRQ GLK\GURLVRGULQ K\GUR[\ODWLRQ DQG SFKORUR1 PHWK\ODQLOLQH GHPHWK\ODLRQ LQ VL[ VSHFLHV RI VDWXUQLLG ODUYDH (FRQ (QWRPRO f .XPDU 5 ,QVHFW 3HVW &RQWURO (GZDUG $UQROG /RQGRQ SS /XJLQELOO 3 7KH IDOO DUP\ZRUP 86'$ 7HFK %XOO SS /XJLQELOO 3 -U 'HYHORSLQJ UHVLVWDQW SODQWV 7KH LGHDO PHWKRG RI FRQWUROOLQJ LQVHFWV 86'$ 3URG 5HV 5HS SS /\QFK 5 ( 6 3DLU DQG 5 -RKQVRQ )DOO DUP\ZRUP IHFXQGLW\ 5HODWLRQVKLS RI HJJ PDVV ZHLJKW WR QXPEHU RI HJJV *HRUJLD (QWRPRO 6RF f 0DF.HQ]LH & 6 %DUILHOG * .HQQHG\ DQG 5 %HUJHU (GVf 0RYHPHQW DQG GLVSHUVDO RI DJULFXOWXUDOO\ LPSRUWDQW ELRWLF DJHQWV &ODLWRUnV 3XE &R %DWRQ 5RXJH SS 0D[ZHOO ) 1 -HQNLQV DQG : / 3DUURWW 5HVLVWDQFH RI SODQWV WR LQVHFWV $GY $JURQ 0LWFKHOO ( 5 9 + :DGGLOO DQG 7 5 $VKOH\ 3RSXODWLRQ G\QDPLFV RI WKH IDOO DUP\ZRUP /HSLGRSWHUD 1RFWXLGDHf DQG ODUYDO SDUDVLWHV RQ ZKRUO VWDJH FRUQ LQ SKHURPRQHSHUPHDWHG ILHOG HQYLURQPHQWV (QYLURQ (QWRPRO 2UU % DQG %RHWKHO &RPSDUDWLYH GHYHORSPHQW RI &RSLGRVRPD WUXQFDWHOOXP +\PHQRSWHUD (QF\UWLGDHf DQG LWV KRVW 3VHXGRSOXVLD LQFOXGHQV /HSLGRSWHUD 1RFWXLGDHf RQ UHVLVWDQW DQG VXVFHSWLEOH VR\EHDQ JHQRW\SHV (QYLURQ (QWRPRO

PAGE 147

2ZHQV & $Q H[SODQDWLRQ RI WHUPV XVHG LQ LQVHFW UHVLVWDQFH WR SODQWV ,RZD 6W 5HV 3DLQWHU 5 + ,QVHFW UHVLVWDQFH LQ FURS SODQWV 0DF0LOODQ1HZ \RUN SS 3DLU 6 5 5DXOVWRQ $ 1 6SDUNV DQG 3 % 0DUWLQ D )DOO DUP\ZRUP /HSLGRSWHUD 1RFWXLGDHf SDUDVLWRLGV GLIIHUHQWLDO VSULQJ GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG LQFLGHQFH RQ FRUQ DQG VRUJKXP LQ VRXWKHDVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG QRUWKHUQ 0H[LFR (QYLURQ (QWRPRO 3DLU 6 % 5 :LVHPDQ DQG $ 1 6SDUNV E ,QIOXHQFH RI IRXU FRUQ FXOWLYDUV RQ IDOO DUP\ZRUP /HSLGRSWHUD 1RFWXLGDHf HVWDEOLVKPHQW DQG SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ )OD (QWRPRO f 3DUHQFLD & 5 -U :LQWHU VXUYLYDO RI WKH EROOZRUP LQ &HQWUDO 7H[DV (FRQ (QWRPRO 3HUNLQV : /DERUDWRU\ UHDULQJ RI WKH IDOO DUP\ZRUP )OD (QWRPRO 3LPHQWDO .UXPPHO *DOODKDQ +RXJK $ 0HUULOO 6FKUHLQHU 3 9LHWXP ) .R]LRO ( %DFN
PAGE 148

4XDLQWDQFH $ / DQG & 7 %UXHV EROOZRUP 86 'HS $JU %XOO 7KH FRWWRQ SS 4XLVHQEHUU\ 6 6 DQG + :LOVRQ &RQVXPSWLRQ DQG XWLOL]DWLRQ RI EHUPXGD JUDVV E\ IDOO DUP\ZRUP /HSLGRSWHUD 1RFWXLGDHf ODUYDH (FRQ (QWRPRO 5DEE 5 / DQG * .HQQHG\ (GVf 0RYHPHQW RI KLJKO\ PRELOH LQVHFWV FRQFHSWV DQG PHWKRGRORJ\ LQ UHVHDUFK 3URF &RQI 5DOHLJK 1& $SU 1& 6WDWH 8QLY 3UHVV 5DOHLJK SS 5D\ : 7KH HSR[LGDWLRQ RI DOGULQ E\ KRXVHIO\ PLFURVRPHV DQG LWV LQKLELWLRQ E\ FDUERQ PRQR[LGH %LRFKHP 3KDUPDF 5RJHUV DQG 0 6XOOLYDQ 1\PSKDO SHUIRUPDQFH RI *HRFRULV SXQFWLSHV +HPLSWHUD /\JDHLGDHf RQ SHVWUHVLVWDQW VR\EHDQV (QYLURQ (QWRPRO 5RKOIV : 0 ,,, DQG 7 3 0DFN 3DUDVLWLVP UDWHV KRVW VL]H DQG DGXOW HPHUJHQFH SDWWHUQ RI SDUDVLWRLGV RI WKH IDOO DUP\ZRUP 6SRGRSWHUD IUXTMSHUGD ( 6PLWKf ZLWK HPSKDVLV RQ 4SKLRQ IODYLGXV %UXOOH +\PHQRSWHUD,FKQHXPRQLGDHf $QQ (QWRPRO 6RF $PHU 6DEURVN\ & : 7DFKLQLG SDUDVLWHV RI +HOLRWKLV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ +HPLVSKHUH 'LSWHUD/HSLGRSWHUDf 3URF (QWRPRO 6RF :DVK 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH 6$667$7 JXLGH IRU SHUVRQDO FRPSXWHUV &DU\ 1& SS 6FULEHU 0 DQG ) 6ODQVN\ -U 7KH QXWULWLRQDO HFRORJ\ RI LPPDWXUH LQVHFWV $QQ 5HY (QWRPRO 6KHSDUG 0 DQG : 6WHUOLQJ ,QFLGHQFH RI SDUDVLWLVP RI +HOLRWKLV VSS /HSLGRSWHUD1RFWXLGDHf LQ VRPH FRWWRQ ILHOGV RI 7H[DV $QQ (QWRPRO 6RF $PHU 6ODQVN\ ) -U 1XWULWLRQDO HFRORJ\ RI HQGRSDUDVLWLF LQVHFWV DQG WKHLU KRVWV $Q RYHUYLHZ ,QVHFW 3K\VLRO f

PAGE 149

6ODQVN\ ) -U DQG 0 6FULEHU )RRG FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG XWLOL]DWLRQ SS ,Q &RPSUHKHQVLYH LQVHFW SK\VLRORJ\ ELRFKHPLVWU\ DQG SKDUPDFRORJ\ 9RO ( .HUNXW DQG / *LOEHUW (GVf 2[IRUG 6ODQVN\ ) -U DQG 5RGULJXH] 1XWULWLRQDO HFRORJ\ RI LQVHFWV PLWHV VSLGHUV DQG UHODWHG LQYHUWHEUDWHV DQ RYHUYLHZ SS ,Q ) 6ODQVN\ DQG 5RGULJXH] (GVf 1XWULWLRQDO HFRORJ\ RI LQVHFWV PLWHV VSLGHUV DQG UHODWHG LQYHUWHEUDWHV :LOH\ 1HZ
PAGE 150

7XUQLSVHHG 6 DQG 0 6XOOLYDQ 3ODQW UHVLVWDQFH LQ VR\EHDQ LQVHFW PDQDJHPHQW SS ,Q / +LOO (Gf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f :LOOLDPV : 3 ) 0 'DYLV DQG % 5 :LVHPDQ )DOO DUP\ZRUP UHVLVWDQFH LQ FRUQ DQG WKH VXSSUHVVLRQ RI ODUYDO JURZWK $JURQ :LVHPDQ % 5 7\SHV DQG PHFKDQLVPV RI KRVW SODQW UHVLVWDQFH WR LQVHFW DWWDFN ,QVHFW 6FL $SSO f :LVHPDQ % 5 DQG ) 0 'DYLV 3ODQW UHVLVWDQFH WR WKH IDOO DUP\ZRUP )OD (QWRPRO :LVHPDQ % 5 ) 0 'DYLV DQG ( &DPSEHOO 0HFKDQLFDO LQIHVWDWLRQ GHYLFH XVHG LQ IDOO DUP\ZRUP SODQW UHVLVWDQFH SURJUDPV )OD (QWRPRO :LVHPDQ % 5 5 & *XHUGQHU DQG 5 ( /\QFK )DOO DUP\ZRUP /HSLGRSWHUD 1RFWXLGDHf UHVLVWDQFH ELRDVVD\V XVLQJ D PRGLILHG SLQWR EHDQ GLHW (FRQ (QWRPRO

PAGE 151

:LVHPDQ % 5 : : 0F0LOOLDQ DQG 1 : :LGVWURP )HHGLQJ RI FRUQ HDUZRUP LQ WKH ODERUDWRU\ RQ H[FLVHG VLONV RI VHOHFWHG FRUQ HQWULHV ZLWK UDWHV RQ 2ULXV LQVLGLRVXV )OD (QWRPRO :LVHPDQ % 5 1 : :LGVWURP DQG : : 0F0LOOLDQ (DU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG PHFKDQLVPV DPRQJ VHOHFWHG FRUQV WR FRUQ HDUZRUP )OD (QWRPRO :LVHPDQ % 5 1 : :LGVWURP DQG : : 0F0LOOLDQ 0RYHPHQW RI FRUQ HDUZRUP ODUYDH RQ HDUV RI UHVLVWDQW DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQV (QYLURQ (QWRPRO :LVHPDQ % 5 DQG 1 : :LGVWURP 0HFKDQLVPV RI UHVLVWDQFH LQ =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ VLONV WR IDOO DUP\ZRUP /HSLGRSWHUD 1RFWXLGDHf ODUYDH (FRQ (QWRPRO 5HS@
PAGE 152

$33(1',; 7$%/( $O 3DUDPHWHUV IRU 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RI 3HUIRUPDQFH 9DOXHV 3DUDPHWHU $EEUHYLDWLRQ )RUPXOD 5HODWLYH &RQVXPSWLRQ 5DWH 5 f & f 5 f 0% [ 7f $EVROXWH &RQVXPSWLRQ 5DWH $&5 ,7 5HODWLYH *URZWK 5DWH 5 f f 5 f %0% ; 7f $EVROXWH *URZWK 5DWH $ f f 5 f %7 $SSUR[LPDWH 'LJHVWLELOLW\ $VVLPLWDWLRQ (IILFLHQF\f $' )f, (IILFLHQF\ RI &RQYHUVLRQ RI 'LJHVWHG )RRG 1HW *URZWK (IILFLHQF\f ( f & f f %, )f (IILFLHQF\ RI &RQYHUVLRQ RI ,QJHVWHG )RRG *URVV *URZWK (IILFLHQF\f (&, %, IRRG LQJHVWHG PJ GU\ ZW ) IHFHV PJ GU\ ZW % ELRPDVV JDLQHG PJ GU\ ZW 0% PHDQ ZHLJKW RI WKH LQVWDU PJ GU\ ZW %I %L 7 GXUDWLRQ RI DFWLYH JURZWK VWDJH GD\V Q %I%Lf 5*5 5&5 ; (&, (&, ( & ; $'

PAGE 153

7DEOH $ /DUYDO GXUDWLRQ DQG PRUWDOLW\ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP UHDUHG RQ GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI D UHVLVWDQW FRUQ FXOWLYDU =DSDORWH &KLFR DQG D VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ FXOWLYDU 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ 'LHW 1 0RUWDOLW\ bf /DUYDO GXUDWLRQ GD\Vf 3LQWR EHDQ FKHFNf F 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ F =DSDORWH &KLFR J E =DSDORWH &KLFR J E =DSDORWH &KLFR J D ,Q FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S 7XNH\nV VWXGHQWL]HG UDQJH WHVWf

PAGE 154

7$%/( $ 0HDQ QXPEHU RI HJJV ODLG E\ IDOO DUP\ZRUP IHPDOHV UHDUHG RQ D SLQWR EHDQ FKHFN GLHW &.f DQG GLHWV FRQWDLQLQJ VLONV RI 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ FRUQ 6(*f D VXVFHSWLEOH FXOWLYDU DQG =DSDORWH &KLFR FRUQ =&f D UHVLVWDQW FXOWLYDU 'LHW Q 0HDQ QXPEHU RI HJJV ODLG 3LQWR EHDQ FKHFNf D f =DSDORWH &KLFR J D f =DSDORWH &KLFR J D f =DSDORWH &KLFR J E f 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ 6WG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S 6FKHIIHVf

PAGE 155

7DEOH $ 0HDQ SHUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH RQ ZKRUO VWDJH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ 0S6:&%f DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ 6WRZHOOfV (YHUJUHHQf E\ $UFK\WDV PDUPRUDWXV LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD &XOWLYDU3ODQW 6WDJH 0HDQ 3HUFHQW 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 3HUFHQWDJH RI 7RWDO 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 1 0HDQ 3HUFHQW 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 3HUFHQWDJH RI 7RWDO 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 1 7RWDO 3DUD 6WRZHOOfV (YHUJUHHQ D E E D D D OHDI VWDJH f f f f f f 0S6:&% D D D E D E OHDI VWDJH f f f f f f 6WRZHOOfV (YHUJUHHQ D D D D D OHDI VWDJH f f f f f f 0S6:&% D D D E D OHDI VWDJH f f f f f f 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DUH PHDQ VWG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S 6FKHIIHfVf IRU HDFK OHDI VWDJH RU f 1 PHDQ VDPSOH VL]H IRU UHSOLFDWHV URXQGHG RII WR ZKROH QXPEHU

PAGE 156

7$%/( $ 0HDQ SHUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH RQ ZKRUO VWDJH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ 0S6:&%f DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf E\ 2SKLRQ IODYLGXV LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD &XOWLYDU3ODQW 6WDJH 0HDQ 3HUFHQW 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 3HUFHQW RI 7RWDO 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 0HDQ 3HUFHQW 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 3HUFHQW RI 7RWDO 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 1 1 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ D D D E OHDI VWDJH f f f f 0S6Z&% E D D D OHDI VWDJH f f f f ( 2 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQ OHDI VWDJH D f D f E f E f 0S6:&% OHDI VWDJH D f D f D f D f 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ VWG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S !f 6FKHIIHnVf IRU HDFK ODI VWDJH RU f 1 PHDQ VDPSOH VL]H IRU UHSOLFDWHV URXQGHG RII WR ZKROH QXPEHU

PAGE 157

7DEOH $ 0HDQ SHUFHQWDJH SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ RI IDOO DUP\ZRUP ODUYDH RQ ZKRUO VWDJH UHVLVWDQW FRUQ 0S6:&%f DQG VXVFHSWLEOH FRUQ 6WRZHOOfV (YHUJUHHQf E\ RWKHU SDUDVLWHV DQG WRWDO SHUFHQW SDUDVLWL]DWLRQ LQ 7LIWRQ *HRUJLD 3HUFHQW RI 7RWDO 3HUFHQW RI 7RWDO &XOWLYDU3ODQW 6WDJH 7RWDO 3HUFHQW 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ %\ 7RWDO 3HUFHQW 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ %\ 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 1 2WKHU 3DUDVLWHV 3DUDVLWL]DWLRQ 1 2WKHU 3DUDVLWHV 6WRZHOOfV (YHUJUHHQ D D E D OHDI VWDJH f f f f 0S6:&% D D D D OHDI VWDJH f f f f 6WRZHOOfV (YHUJUHHQ D D D D OHDI VWDJH f f f f 0S6:&% D E D D OHDI VWDJH f f f f 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ VWG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S 6FKHIIHfVf 2WKHU SDUDVLWHV LQFOXGHG $SDQWHOHV VS &RWHVLD PDUJLQLYHQWULV &UHVVRQf 5RJDV ODSK\JPDH 9LHUHFN (XSOHFWURV FRPVWRFNLL +RZDUG E 7RWDO LQFOXGHV $UFK\WDV PDUPRUDWXV 7RZQVHQG 2SKLRQ IODYLGXV %UXOOH DQG RWKHU SDUDVLWHV 1 PHDQ VDPSOH VL]H IRU UHSOLFDWHV URXQGHG RII WR ZKROH QXPEHU

PAGE 158

7DEOH $ 0HDQ SXSDO ZHLJKWV DQG HJJV ODLG E\ IDOO DUP\ZRP UHDUHG RQ ZKRUO VWDJH UHVLVWDQW 0S6:&%f DQG VXVFHSWLEOH 6WRZHOOnV (YHUJUHHQf FRUQ 'LHW 1 HJJV ODLG 1 ): PJf SXSDH ': PJf SXSDH 3LQWR EHDQ D FKHFNf f f 6(* D f f f 0S6:&% E f f f 9DOXHV H[SUHVVHG DV PHDQ 6WG HUURUf LQ FROXPQV YDOXHV QRW IROORZHG E\ WKH VDPH OHWWHU DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW S 6FKHIIHnVf ): IUHVK ZHLJKW ': GU\ ZHLJKW

PAGE 159

%,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ 0DXGH )UDQFHVFD &KULVWLDQ0HLHU ZDV ERUQ LQ /DJRV 1LJHULD :HVW $IULFD RQ WKH WK RI 6HSWHPEHU 6KH DWWHQGHG 6W 7KHUHVDnV 3ULPDU\ 6FKRRO LQ $FFUD *KDQD IURP WR DQG 6W 0DU\nV&DWKHGUDO 6FKRRO LQ .LQJVWRQ 2QWDULR &DQDGD IURP $XJXVW WR 'HFHPEHU 6KH FRQWLQXHG KHU HGXFDWLRQ DW +RO\ &KLOG 6HFRQGDU\ 6FKRRO LQ &DSH &RDVW *KDQD ZKHUH VKH GLG 2n DQG $n OHYHO *HQHUDO &HUWLILFDWH RI (GXFDWLRQ H[DPLQDWLRQV 6KH ZDV WKH DVVLVWDQW VHQLRU SUHIHFW IURP WR ,Q 2FWREHU RI VKH EHJDQ KHU XQGHUJUDGXDWH VWXGLHV DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI *KDQD DQG ZDV WKH VWXGHQW ERG\ WUHDVXUHU IURP WR 6KH ZRQ WKH $QJXV %RRWK 0HPRULDO 3UL]H LQ =RRORJ\ LQ DQG WKH :DGGOH 3UL]H IRU %LRORJLFDO 6FLHQFHV LQ 0DXGH UHFHLYHG KHU %DFKHORU RI 6FLHQFH GHJUHH VHFRQG FODVV XSSHU GLYLVLRQf IURP WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI *KDQD LQ DQG VWD\HG RQ WR GR 1DWLRQDO 6HUYLFH DV D WHDFKLQJ DVVLVWDQW LQ WKH =RRORJ\ 'HSDUWPHQW ,Q $XJXVW RI VKH HQWHUHG WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD WR

PAGE 160

VWXG\ HQWRPRORJ\ DQG UHFHLYHG WKH 0DVWHU RI 6FLHQFH GHJUHH LQ 0DXGH ZDV WKH WUHDVXUHU RI WKH (QWRPRORJ\ DQG 1HPDWRORJ\ 6RFLHW\ RI WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD IURP WR ,Q -DQXDU\ RI VKH HQWHUHG WKH SURJUDP WRZDUG D GRFWRUDO GHJUHH LQ HQWRPRORJ\ DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD 6KH ZRQ DQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO IHOORZVKLS IURP WKH $PHULFDQ $VVRFLDWLRQ RI 8QLYHUVLW\ :RPHQ $$8:f LQ DQG LV D IHOORZ RI WKH $$8: 0DXGH LV PDUULHG WR +HQU\ 0HLHU DQG WKH\ KDYH IRXU FKLOGUHQ )HUQDQGD -DFN $QWKHD DQG 5DFKHO

PAGE 161

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t ƒ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n n / n8 DW \Qrrf§ 'U %5 :LVHPDQ $GMXQFW 3URIHVVRU RI (QWRPRORJ\ DQG 1HPDWRORJ\

PAGE 162

, FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ rr &aV Vn‘ A Y W ‘‘ W U 'U 5% 6KLUHPDQ 3URIHVVRU RI )RRG 6FLHQFH DQG +XPDQ 1XWULWLRQ 7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ ZDV VXEPLWWHG WR WKH *UDGXDWH )DFXOW\ RI WKH &ROOHJH RI $JULFXOWXUH DQG WR WKH *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO DQG ZDV DFFHSWHG DV SDUWLDO IXOILOOPHQW RI WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ 'HDQ &ROOHJH RI $JULFXOWXUH 'HDQ *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO $XJXVnW

PAGE 163

81,9(5VW\ RI )/25,'$ 2 $ a m+, PL


xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID ERFGGXDPQ_7DB1EJ INGEST_TIME 2017-07-12T20:56:06Z PACKAGE AA00003318_00001
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES