Constraints to Republican development

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Title:
Constraints to Republican development the Deep South states, 1966-1988
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ix, 272 leaves : ; 29 cm.
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English
Creator:
Heyman, Warren Williams
Publication Date:

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Political parties -- History -- Southern States -- 20th century   ( lcsh )
Politics and government -- Southern States -- 1951-   ( lcsh )
Genre:
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1993.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 258-271).
General Note:
Typescript.
General Note:
Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Warren Williams Heyman.

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University of Florida
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aleph - 001885242
notis - AJW0397
oclc - 29553936
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Full Text








CONSTRAINTS
THE DEEP


TO REPUBLICAN
SOUTH STATES,


WARREN


WILLIAMS


DEVELOPMENT:
1966-1988


HEYMAN


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY












ACKNOWLEDGMENTS


Few


people


can


successfully


complete


a di


ssertation


without


large


amount


of encouragement


and


assistance.


have


had


a sufficient


amount


of both.


Professor


Richard


. Scher


chairman


dissertation


committee


, provided


much


encouragement


ass


stance


during


the


entire


working


period


on hi


own


was


book


working


on thi


Politics


project.


New


South


Even


, Dr


while


. Scher


found


time


to provide


supervi


sion


guidance


struggled


with


learning


to organize


sufficiently


to complete


the


pers


task


onal


at hand


friend


, and


did


much


included


more.


He became


in projects


was


working


on so that


might


earn


money


necessary


to stay


the


program


complete


requirements.


am having


difficulty


expre


ssing


depth


of gratitude


have


SScher


, but


am sure


those


who


know


us both


know


what


feel


am very


grateful


help


given


other


spec
ciT~ar


people.


Their


help


was


both


encouraging


and


more


practical


I will


never


forget


first


recommendation


a graduate


assistantship


written


. Alfonso


. Damico.


never


saw


the


recommendation,


just


willingness


take








chance


on me was


such


a great


uplifting.


He has


never


stopped


encouraging


me since


that


very


time


, and


sincerely


appreciate


his


help


and


friendship.


Without


that


first


recommendation,


I would


be writing


dissertation.


Similar


recommendations


have


come


over


the


years


from


Professo

Professo

treated


found


Albert

Walter


me more


ways


. Matheny,

. Rosenbaum


as a colleague


to do everything


Professor

. These

e than a


their


James


gentlemen


student.


power


. Button,


have

Each


see


always


them


that


completed


the


dissertation.


Professor


Kenneth


. Wald


. Button


provided


financial


ass


instance


training


allowing


me to


participate


in some


their


research


projects.


Both


these


through


gentlemen,


their


along


official


with


Professor


positions


in the


Wayne


Franci


department,


found


teaching


funds


me over


a period


of several


years.


thankful


them


their


trust


in my


ability


to handle


the


task


teaching


introductory


classes


as well


as an upper


divi


sion


course.


thank


Kevin


Hill


assistance


with


the


statistical


computations


Professor


Michael


. Martinez


his


am very


patience


fortunate


help


to have


with


stati


Professor


stical


William


analyst


Kel


serve


on my committee,


particularly


since


am sure


he has









forgotten


ordeal


lengthy


master'


thesis


Professor


Kelso


has


always


been


encouraging


a strong


supporter


am very


grateful


to Prof


essor


Augustus


. Burns


reading


research


and


serving


committee


even


though


he has


own


students


and


workload


History


Department.


am sure


have


forgotten


someone


who


was


very


helpful


along


the


way


many


people


gave


so much


over


the


ears.


To all


above


as well


as those


may


have


temporarily


forgotten


wish


express


my deepest


thanks.










TABLE


OF CONTENTS


Page


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...................................... .


ABSTRACT. . ........ . . . . . . . .


CHAPTER


INTRODUCTION................ ................


Notes.......


SOUTHERN REPUBLICANISM AND
COMPETITION: AN HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVE................


A One-Party South....
Decline of the Solid
Early Development of
Republicanism......
Notes. ...............


.................... 14


INTERPARTY


.....a ...... ... a.. O.a
South...............
Southern
. ..a a.... ...ooo.... ..
~ ~ ~ )I( a a at t* C ** C*


SOUTHERN ACCEPTANCE OF REPUBLICANISM
PRESIDENTIAL REPUBLICANISM..........


S.. .... 42


The Deep
The Rim S
Notes....


South
outh


States.
States..


......QQ............
....................
........ ". '......'...
* C* CC S C a C* C *S
* C tt tt C* a** a a


THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF PARTY
COMPETITION: NONPRESIDENTIAL


POLITICS........


U.S.
House


Senate Elections...
of Representatives


Election!


Gubernatorial
Legislative
Down-Ticket
Summary.....
Notes.......


1 Election
Elections
Elections


ns.


.........a......... .
00a00...0.......0...


A CONSTRAINED REPUBLICAN
STRUCTURAL BARRIERS......


DEVELOPMENT


Incumbency... .........................
Traditional Democratic Party Strength.


* tat
* a a t
0....
..I.


................. 83










Page


The Black Vote.....................
Candidate Quality..................
Summary......... ...... ......... ......
Notes..............................


.......
.......
. a.....
0.... .a


CONSTRAINTS ON REPUBLICAN GROWTH:


AN EMPIRICAL TEST...........................


Theoretical Perspectives..................
Incumbency...............................
Traditional Democratic Party Strength.....
The Black Vote...........................
Candidate Quality.........................
Model. . . ........................
Variable Operations and Data.............
Analysis..................................
Notes................................. ...


7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS.....................

Notes... . ..... ..... ...............

APPENDIX..............................................

REFERENCES. . . . ..........................

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH...................................


185











Abstract


Graduate
Partial


of Dissertation


School


Fulfillment


Presented


University
the Requir


the


of Florida


ements


the


Degree


CONSTRAINTS


of Doctor


of Philosophy


TO REPUBLICAN


DEVELOPMENT


THE


DEEP


SOUTH


STATES


1966


-1988


Warren


Williams


Heyman


May


1993


Chairman:


. Richard


. Scher


Major


Department


Political


Science


Traditional


Democratic


hegemony


South


broke


down


the


1950s


and


1960s


, and


the


Republican


party


has


made


significant


inroads


areas


South.


Initial


Republican


gains


in the


Deep


South


were


generated


residential


candidates


There


is evidence


some


trickle-down


effects,


Southern


Republicans


have


not


been


consis


tent


challengers


or winners


congress


ional


statewide


offices.


The


GOP


remains


a minority


party


the


Deep


South


below


the


presidential


level


a substantial


margin.


This


research


seeks


to explain


the


slowness


Southern


Grand


Old


Party


(GOP)


development


as a competitive


political


force


and


alternative


to Democratic


party


dominance


after


three


decades


of strong


support


Republican


presidential









nominees


The


research


hypothes i


zes


that


Republican


electoral


development


constrained


the


power


and


entrenchment


of Democratic


officeholders,


a strong


tradition


of Democratic


party


support


voting


behavior


of black


voters,


and


the


quality


of Republican


challengers.


The


four


variable


and


explain


continued


a large


Democratic


proportion


dominance


Republican


in the


vote


South


Multiple


linear


regression


used


test


the


hypothe


ses


estimate


the


deterrent


effect


the


variables


collectively


individually


The


unit


analysis


is congressional


elections


district


level


The


dependent


received


variable


GOP


congress


proportion


ional


candidates


the


The


vote

sample


drawn


from


congressional


elections


in four


Deep


South


states


1966


-1988


period.


endpoint


the


sample


period


is limited

proportion


availability


voting-age


blacks


of estimates


the


the


congressional


district


level.


The


provide


regress


the


strongest


analysis


indicates


constraint


Democratic


to Republican


incumbents


electoral


growth.


negative


Traditional


influence


Democratic


on GOP


party


development


allegiance


remains


is a


robust


model


including


without


black


vote


variable.


The


black


vote


a small


negative


effect


the


quality









Republican


candidates


has


a small


positive


effect


on the


dependent


variable.


Neither


the


black


vote


nor


the


experience


Republican


candidates


statistically


significant.













CHAPTER


INTRODUCTION


There


has


been


no shortage


of research


about


Southern


politics


over


the


past


forty


years


, particularly


since


1960s


when


great


social


political


upheaval


and


turmoil


took


place.


Prior


mid-twentieth


century


the


distinctiveness


South


fascinated


researchers.


Since


the


1960s


the


study


of Southern


politics


has


been


concerned


with


change.


The


high


level


interest


scholars


journalists,

observers is


political


;not


activists,


difficult


pundits,


to understand


and


other


even


justified,


given


level


of changes


taking


place


in the


South.


Southerners


abandoned


the


political


hegemony


the


Democratic


party;


blacks


demanded


and


received


civil


rights


and


were


enfranchised;


blacks


became


a significant


political


force


because


their


mobili


zation


and


solidarity


with


Democratic


party;


large


population


growth


took


place


primarily


largest


urban


areas;


whites


, mostly


middle


ass


and


living


urban


areas


, began


supporting


Republican


candidates


some


electoral


levels.


These


changes


provide


the


impetus


research.


The


breakdown


Democratic


party


monopoly


came


no urnr nrr


t n Rnithornrs


other


observers


the









region'


political


scene.


roots


extend


back


the


Roosevelt


and


Truman


administrations


(Key


1949)


For


some,


two-party


politics


was


welcomed


as a healthy


alternative


providing


competition


in an exi


sting


system


which


was


rigid,


authoritarian,


oligarchic,


archaic,


unresponsive,


and


undemocratic


(1949)


importance


of understanding


Southern


Republicans'


role


the


political-party


fabric


the


nation


can


be cast


in practical


political


terms.


One


only


needs


examine


presidential


elections


over


the


past


thirty-two


years


U.S.


Senate


elections


1980


observe


the


effects


of party


competition


the


South.


Southern


presidential


support


contributed


heavily


Republican


control


the


presidency


in recent


times,


the


1980


Senate


elections


resulted


Republican


control


that


chamber


the


period


1981-1986.


There


is no question


that


Southern


"Grand


Old


Party"


(GOP)


has


become


a significant


part


the


Southern


political


landscape.


The


breakdown


of Democratic


party


dominance


and


Republican


party


development


the


South


are


well


documented


(Black


Black


1987;


Cosman


1966;


Phillips


1969;


Scher


1992


Swansbrough


Brodsky


1988)


Republicans

presidential


have


made


level


their


(Black


most


and


dramatic


Black


1987;


gains

Scher


the


1992


Seagull


1975)


Without


Jimmy


Carter'


showing


1976


a~ -- .


I- __ .


1-


I


I










elections,


the


common


perception


is that


South


has


developed


a strong


challenging


competitive


Democrats


as the


Republican

dominant


party

party.


or even

Based


on some


"conventional


wisdom"


about


the


rise


two-party


politics


the


South


, it


would


appear


that


the


region


should


have


a much


stronger


Republican


party


than


does.


In-migration


, industrialization,


urbanization,


rising


level


income


and


education,


conservative


political


attitudes


suggest


that


Republicans


should


very


strong


and


a competitive


office.

behavior


Close

reveal


political


examination


otherwise.


force


at all


.d analysis

Across all


level


of South

electoral


of elective

ern voting


1 1


evel


Republican


successes


are


less


impres


sive.


The


GOP


tremendous


difficulty


making


significant


inroads


into


Southern


electorate


level


below


the


presidency,


particularly


state


local


level


(Black


Black


1987;


Canon


Sousa


1988;


Scher


1992;


Heyman


Scher


1988)


some


states


Republican


development


appears


to be stagnant


, or even


eroding


(Heyman


1985)


Viewing


Southern


Republicanism


, not


from


standpoint


of what


has


been


accomplished


but


from


another


point


view,


most


interesting


question


becomes


Why


have


Republicans


done


better?


Given


supposed


ideological


compatibility


between


the


new


national









proven


to be


more


fertile


territory


the


GOP


and


candidates


than


has


been?6


Optimistic


statements


outright


predictions


fully


competitive


two-party


political


system


the South


have


appeared


regularly


since


the


Deep


South


voted


Republican


the


1964


presidential


election


The


Rim


South


continued


to give


votes


to the


Democratic


candidate


, but


the


GOP


received


a high


proportion


the


total


votes


regionwide


Nearly


overnight,


predictions


two-party


system


were


widespread


The


Republican


presidential


candidate


received


more


votes


than


the


Democratic


candidate


in each


election


since


1968


except


1976


The


American


Independent


Party


of George


Wallace


won


the


Deep


South,


except


South


Carolina


, and


Arkansas


1968


Republican


presidential


nominees


were


leading


way


and


clearing


the


path


Republican


development


in the


South.


Dwight


Eisenhower


was


a national


military


hero


whom


many


Southerners


were


very


comfortable


supporting


candidacy provided

Republican. The "


legitimacy


Southern


Southerners


strategies" of


Barr


to vote

y Goldwater


1964


and


Richard


Nixon


in 1968


1972


established


presidential


Republicanism


the


South


The


national


Democratic


Party


provided


little


interference


and


even


encouragement


continued


nomination


liberal









1952,


and


Republican


dominance


been


established


since


1972--so


why


has


Republicanism


developed


in a comparable


manner


at other


levels


of government?


The


period


1960-1972


found


Democratic


party


in the


South


disarray


over


civil


rights


issue


and


Republicans


riding


the


crest


the


Southern


revolt


against


the


civil


rights


stance


the


national


Democratic


party


The


collapse


rationale


the


one-party


Democratic


South


brought


about


a surge


in Republican


activity


the


region.


Republican


candidates


the


U.S.


Senate


and


House


met


with


early


success


example,


1962


veteran


Alabama


U.S.


Senator


ster


Hill


barely


won


reelection


over


Republican


James


. Martin;


Florida


elected


two


Republican


U.S


SRepresentatives


twelve;


South


Carolina


gave


over


40 percent


popular


vote


to a Republican


candidate


the


U.S.


Senate


first


time


since


Reconstruction;


Texas


elected


a second


Republican


Representative,


after


electing


Republican


John


Tower


the


U.S


Senate


the


previous


nine


year;


congress


Tennessee


ional


elected


districts


Republicans


In all


three


, 11 of


Southern


. Representatives


were


Republican


88th


Congress


, the


highest


.since


1870s.


1972


Republicans


represented


32 percent


Southern


congr


ess


ional


delegation.









self-identification


did


3ump


dramatically


favor


the


GOP;


rather,


many


Southerners


identified


as Independent


(Swansbrough


and


Brodsky


1988).


Neverthel


ess


, Republican


candidates


across


were


electoral


entering


level


an increasing


receiving


number


larger


races


proportion


the


votes


(Heyman


and


Scher


1988)


But


the


early


"promise


of Southern


Republicanism


seems


not


to have


been


fully


realized.


Movement


toward


a fully


competitive


party


often


appears


to have


stopped


, or at


most


to be moving


glacial


speed.


Certainly


, presidential


Republicanism


established.


It is


levels


of offi


below


the


presidency


where


the


GOP


meets


the


greatest


resistance.


Some


evidence


indicates


the


Southern


GOP


is much


like


the


dog


that


chases


trucks.


grows


to the


point


of being


able


what


to catch


to do


the


once


trucks,


truck


often


caught.


seems


For


befuddled


example,


as to


Florida


Republicans


were


able


to elect


Claude


Kirk


governor


in 1966.


was


unable


to get


elected


to a second


term.


was


twenty


years


governor,


before


and


Florida


was


would

turned


elect

out o


another


f offi


Republican


after


single


term.


Georgia


Republican


gubernatorial


candidate


Howard


Callaway


rece


ived


a plurality


of approximately


47 percent


in the


1966


election.


Twenty-six


years


later


Georgians


are


yet


to elect


a Republican


governor


Five









office


after


one


term.


GOP


can


solve


the


problem


reelecting


their


governors


, the


party


will


in a stronger


position


contests


to make


(Black


additional


Black


gains


1987)


in state


Four


local


additional


U.S


. Senate


seats


were


won


Southern


Republicans


1980;


each


lost


in a first


attempt


at reelection.


Southern


Republicans


have


found


is not


easy


a developing


party


to win


elections


a traditionally


Democratic


region


with


many


powerful


incumbents


office.


In addition


the


enfranchisement


black


Southerners


, who


have


cast


their


political


with


the


Democrats,


helps


to keep


the


Democratic


party


hold


on most


elective


offi


ces


secure.


The


with


result


a top-down


Republicans


of competing


development


with


offices


in such


strategy


even


a political


left


fewer


environment


Southern


experienced


candidates


prepared


run


higher


office


(Aistrup


1989)


Republicans


do not


hold


a majority


any


Southern


legi


slature


, and


very


number


of state


constitutional


offi


ces


below


that


governor


held


Republicans


is well


documented


(Sturrock


1988b)


The


top-down


approach


has


created


problems


GOP


Most


resources


have


been


concentrated


the


high


electoral


level


Southern


Republicans


enough


have


to defeat


had


difficulty


incumbent


recruiting


Democrats


, except


candidates


under


strong


unusual









ticket


splitting


Democrats


are


easy


winners


at the


lower


levels


when


there


no GOP


candidate


, an inexperienced


candidate,


or even


an experienced


candidate


with


no party


support.


While


the


GOP


winning


the


highest


level,


the


top-down


strategy


and


ticket


splitting


allows


the


Democratic


base


remain


strong


while


the


Republicans


are


left


without


experienced


candidates


ready


and


qualified


to challenge


higher


office.


a critical


point


Republi


can


party


development.


GOP


cannot


expect


to become


fully


competitive


without


contesting


elections


at all


level


office


with


a candidate


who


has a reasonable


chance


winning


The


party


has


been


unable


to surmount


some


barriers


, certain


constraints


, which


are


precluding


growth


to a full


potential.


Alexander


. Lami


(1984)


, in


a state-by-state


analysis


the


. Key


tradition,


attributes


Republicans


' early


successes


negative


reaction


of Southern


whites


the


liberal


civil


rights


stance


national


Democratic


party


Later


successes


were


result


of Southern


whites


acceptance


the


"Southern


strategies" of


GOP


presidential


nominees


which


were


packaged


as a hands-off


approach


governing


the


nation


and,


specifically,


the


South


(1984)


Lami


documents


how


skillful


Southern


Democratic


leaders


forged


"night-and-day"


coalitions


between


increasingly










majority


of white


votes.


Lamis


records


the


successes


and


failures


the


combination


of a traditional


Democratic


vote


and


a mobilized


and


stable


black


Democratic


vote.


Lamis

extending


sees

to all


continuing

levels of


GOP


development


electoral


and


office.


competition


Neverthel


ess


the


extent


of Republican


growth


dependent


on the


success


of a fragile


black/white


Democratic


voting


coalition


which


serves


as a powerful


cons


train


to Republican


expansion


and


plays


an integral


role


in continued


Democratic


dominance


Southern


politics


(1984).


Earl


and


Merle


Black


(1987)


, writing


of Southern


politics


a broad


manner


, concluded


presidential


elections


South


were


Republicans'


to lose.


The


Southern


GOP


presidential


base


sufficient


win


the


South


the


GOP


much


Neverthel


greater


ess


, Black


obstacles


Black


races


below


determined


the


GOP


presidency


ces


The


effects


of national


candidates,


issues,


and


events


diminish


levels


below


the


presidency,


overwhelming


traditional


Democratic


partisan


identification


has


been


the


principal


barrier


to GOP


success


in state


level


races,


particularly


the


Deep


South.


The


Southern


GOP


lacks


a large


traditional


base,


and


Conservative


Republican


candidates


win


most


often


when


they


are


able


to combine


Republican


base


with


sufficient









Democrats


ensure


victory


When


the


traditional


Democratic


vote


remains


united


with


the


black


vote,


Republicans


find


a difficult


task


to draw


a majority


white


voters


overcome


coalition.


Black


Black


find


the


black


population


"tangential"


the


determination


of Southern


politics.


They


see


declining


role


the


black


belt


amidst


a growing


white


middle


the


class


South.


which

Black


will

voters


dictat

have


the


limited


direction

d leverage


of politics


because


their


numbers


will


influence


elections


and


policy


only


as part


of a black/white


Democratic


voting


coalition


(1987)


Tradition


and


race


are


only


obstacles


Republican


development


found


Black


and


Black,


however;


strong


Democratic


incumbents


and


perceived


leadership


and


pers


onal


qualities


the


candidates


are


detrimental


a minority


party


In the


Deep


South


even


the


most


serious


Republican


candidates


need


Democratic


party


sarray


and


short-term


advantages


secure


victories


(1987)


Black


Black'


findings


indicate


traditional


Democratic


dominance


of statewide


elections


has vanished,


but


a fully


competitive


political


across


level


of office


has


not


yet


been


reali


zed,


and


serious


obstacle


to Republican


development


remain


(1987).


Richard


K. Scher


(199


like


Black


and


Black


(1987),









Scher


devotes


much


of hi


research


to party


politics,


the


rise


of Southern


Republicanism,


and


the


entry


of blacks


into


electorate.


The


data


presented


indicate


a Democratic


party


that


weak


the


presidential


level,


but


still


control


of state-level


politi


CS.


Scher


finds


growing


Republican


pre


sence


competitiveness


in races


U.S.


Senate


, House


of Representatives,


gubernatorial


office


, but


cautions


that


continuing


GOP


development


contingent


upon


the


South'


developing


service


economy,


growth


the


suburban


middle


class,


in-migration


population


not


tied


to Southern


Democracy


, and


the


Democratic


reaction


to the


Republican


threat


(199


Prospects


local


Republican


growth


appear


limited


Democratic


-controlled


legi


slative


apportionment,


local


tradition,


the


and


Republic


political

an party,


culture


which


a lack


discourage


strong


switches


Republican


candidates


the


state


legis


lature


(Scher


1992


Scher


finds


Southern


Democrats


capable


of holding


onto


power


through


invigorated


party


organic


zations


that


draw


on deep


pools


talent


candidates


who


can


appeal


to a broad


range


electoral


Southern


coalitions


interests


across


are


racial


capable


class


of building


sectional


lines.


Scher


concludes


that


while


Democratic


party


weak


the


presidential


level,


it is strong


, competitive,


- a a


institutions,


- 1









permanent


residence


South,


" the


Democrats


are


not


about


to hand


over


the


reins


of government


(1992


Evidence


of a constrained


Southern


Republican


party


indicated.


Thi


research


is concerned


with


the


question


constraints


on Republican


attempts


to establish


party


institution


in the


South.


What


are


the


barriers


to Southern


Republican


development?


What


constraints


are


limiting


Republican


growth?


How


strong


are


these


constraints


, as a


group


and


individually?


What


must


Southern


Republicans


overcome


these


limitations


on development


Southern


political


behavior


suggests


some


theoretical


suppositions


which


are


developed


and


tested


as a part


the


dissertation


Much


past


research


has


approached


the


South


through


a detailed


state-by-state


analysis.


Emphasis


has


been


placed


on party


organize


action,


personalities


, voting


behavior


and


level


of partisanship


(Bass


and


DeVries


1976;


Havard


1972


Key


1949;


Lamis


1984;


Peirce


1974;


Swansbrough


and


Brodsky


1988)


More


recent


studi


have


"painted


with


broader


brush"


discussion


including


civil


historical


rights,


the


analysis


utilization


, indepth


several


methods


of analysis


including


aggregate


and


individual


level


data


(Black


and


Black


1987;


Scher


1992)


research


utili


zes


storical


analysis


of Southern


t14Aaa*nr. 4 44


Ttkh i r


4-,,,c t1a a4-1-


a *


^_L ^_ *


Co c~~trlr 1 An









research


approaches


the


South


as a monolithic


region,


but


as two


subregions


distinct


many


ways


, but


also having


overlapping


characteristics


as a part


the


whole.


Comparisons


between


Deep


South


states


the


Rim


South


States


are


informative


made


wherever


possible.


Constraints


on Republican


growth


are


found


to be


strongest


in the


Deep


South.


Because


limited


time


resources


, and


availability


of data,


statistical


analysis


performed


on data


from


the


Deep


South


states


only


Using


aggregate


data


measured


at the


congressional


strict


level


precludes


judgments


of change


at the


individual


level


Neverthel


ess


, district


-level


data


state


allow


analysis


of changes


over


time


among


states


and


between


the


subregions


South.


Specific


discussion


of methodology


included


in chapter


Chapter


provides


a chronicle


the


development


one-party


system


, the


decline


of Democratic


party


political


hegemony


in the


"Solid


South


" and


the


early


development


the


Southern


Republican


parties.


Chapter


examines


rise


of presidential


Republicanism


acceptance.


Chapter


reviews


Southern


voting


behavior


levels


below


the


press


idency,


with


particular


attention


given


to elements


of constraint


of party


campaigns


, vote-gaining


ability,


winning


of elections.


relative


positions


the


two









developing


the


hypotheses.


Chapters


and


are


devoted


to developing


and


testing


hypotheses


of constraints


Southern


Republican


development.


Notes


few


(1952),
(1972),
(1975),


Black


the


Cosman
Tindell


Bass


(1987)


and


major


(1966),
(1972)


, and


DeVri


Scher


studi


Matthews
Peirce


(1976),
(1992).


are


and
(1974


Lami


Key


(1949)


Prothro (1
), Bartley


(1984),


Heard


966),
and


Black


Havard
Graham


and


2Several


taking


place


difficulty


civil


rights


Matthews


and


authors
in the


estimating


movement
Prothro


were
outh,
the
and
(1966


leaders


but


describing


early


extent


rise
) and


writings


complete


of Southern


Allen


pat


the
had
"h of


changes
i some
Sthe


Republicans


. Sindler,


See


ed.,


Chance


in the


Contemporary


South


(Durham,


Duke


University


Press,


1963).


3Key
one-party


(1949)
system


provides
through


most
1940s


complete


analysis


the


4For


different


views


development


the


Republican


Black


party


(1987),


in the
Scher


South,
(1992)


see


Lamis


(1984)


Black


a detailed


insight


into


Republican


strength


lower


level


of electoral


office,


see


Sturrock


(1988b)


role


6Lamis
played


(1984)


places


a strong


a black/white


empha


Democratic


on the


voting


deterrent


coalition


Southern


elections.


7The
Louisiana
states ar


Texas


Deep


I


an<


South


, Mississippi
e Arkansas, F
d Virginia.


as a convenient


term


defined


lorida


as Alabama,


South
. Nort


Republicans


to define


Carolina.
h Carolina
m is used
presence


Georgia,


The


Rim


South


, Tennessee,


in thi


and


research


measurement


the


level


of Republican


candidates,


votes,


and


officeholders.


8Cosman


between


the


presidential


(1966) is
Deep South
election.


a fine


the


study
SRim


the


South


difference


the


1964


3









9Strom Thurmond's campaign for Nixon
Carolina win for Wallace. Nixon won five
Humphrey carried Texas.


denied a South
Rim South states.


1See Scher
description of
1964.


(1992 chapters 3 and
"Southern strategies"


4) for
used


Sa historical
prior to and


after


"See Bass and DeVries (1976)
of Southern politics between 1945
Lamis (1984) is an exceptionally
study for the 1960s and 1970s.


for a state-by-state study
and 1974. The work by
revealing state-by-state


'See the 1986 U.S
Florida, Georgia, and
Republican incumbents


. Senate elections
North Carolina as
facing a unified


results i
examples
Democratic


.n Ala)
of
vote.


bama,












CHAPTER


SOUTHERN


COMPETITION:


REPUBLICANISM


AND


AN HISTORICAL


INTERPARTY
PERSPECTIVE


A One-Party


South


The


dominant


feature


of Southern


politics


was


the


one-party


political


system.


Single-party


politics


was


the


foundation


strength


"Solid


South


Thi


section


examines


the


origins


the


one-party


system


and


the


Democratic


party'


struggle


to maintain


the


near-partisan


monopoly


political


leadership


role


enj oyed


between


1896


and


1948


(Key


1949).


Democratic


party'


position


was


so pervasive


overwhelming


that


the former


Confederate


states,


except


Tennessee,


cast


their


votes


the


Democratic


column


in every


presidential


election


between


1900


and


1948


except


1928


1 In


1928


presidential


election,


five


Rim


South


states


supported


Hoover,


while


five


Deep


South


states


Arkansas


solidly


supported


the


Democrati


candidate


Not


until


the


1948


election


and


the


"Dixiecrat"


movement


did


Solid


South


begin


to break


down.


The


historic


alliance


between


the


South


and


the


Democrati


party


had


origin


in the


Civil


War,


was


shaped


during


Reconstruction,


developed


fully


in the


decades









following


Reconstruction.


was


more


than


simply


a race


issue


or a movement


remove


black


vote.


was


equally


a struggle


to determine


which


whites


would


rule.


Bourbon


Democrats


were


quite


willing


to disenfranchise


poor


whites


who


could


be recruited


radical


Democrat


independent


agrarian


movements


opposed


power


and


policies


events


provided


the

the


black

South


-belt


conservatives.


opportunities


to free


Two

itself


the


Northern


army,


carpetbaggers


radical


governments


/political


movements.


The


disputed


presidential


election


1876


allowed


the


South


a chance


to choose


own


course


lasting


foundations


matters


race


, politics


, economics


the


modern


South.


Samuel


Tilden


or Rutherford


. Hayes


as President,


could


remove


Northern


army


and


carpetbaggers


The


South,


reali


zing


the


powerful


political


position


in which


found


itself


wanted


more.


The


South


wanted


to share


the


subsidies


, grants


, bonds


, and


appropriations


national


Republican


government


had


been


bestowing


on northern


enterprise


while


the


South'


economic


needs


went


unaddressed


(Woodward


1951,


chapter


Hayes


and


the


Republicans


were


more


understanding


more


willing


promise


the


South


greater


federal


aid.


The


South


gave


electoral


support


to Hayes.


The


alliance


between


11









the


House


to the


Republicans,


soon


the


Republican


leadership


came


to believe


the


costs


were


too


high.


The


failure


the


Compromise


Southern


cooperation


with


the


national


Republicans


came


about


with


the


wave


agrarian


radicalism


1878.


Southern


agrarian


radicals


, suffering


from


depressed


economic


conditions


and


failure


of adequate


national


subsidies


to materialize,


combined


their


interests


and


political


clout


with


western


farmers


a temporary


alliance


that


swept


the


South


the


control


of conservatives


the


South'


alliance


with


the


West


developed


, the


South


began


voting


agrarian


interests


Southern


ideas


regarding


money,


debts


banks


, state


bonds


and


monopolies


(Woodward


1951


, chapter


In the


1878


off-year


elections


, Hayes


failed


to win


any


the


Southern


states


he courted.


The


Republicans


began


withdraw


from


the


spirit


of conciliation.


Conservative


Southern


Democrats


who


opposed


movement


the


West


and


radicalism,


sought


gain


back


their


position


and


influence


leading


the


South


away


from


the


western


alliance


and


reestablishing


the


South'


cooperation


with


the


East.


Neverthel


ess


conservatives


turn


national


Republicans,


rather


joined


with


eastern


Democrats.


The


plan


was


to keep


the


South


completely


under


white


control









use


government


powers


to help


Negro


as the


Republicans


had


shown


they


would


(Strong


1963)


The


Bourbons


prevailed


struggle


to align


the


South


with


perceived


interests


conservative


Democrats


found


their


interests


were


best


served


an alliance


with


Democrats


the


East.


The


South


remained


aligned


with


eastern


Democrats


until


the


advent


Populist


movement.


During


1880s


Southern


conservatives


remained


devoted


the


northeastern


affiliation


, but


Southern


radical


movement


also


grew


Southern


alliance


members


won


many


high


elective


positions


as Southern


Democrats.


time

the


winning

Democrat


Southern

c party.


alliance


the


members


early


operated


1890s


from


alliance


within

members


were


discontented


sillusioned


their


failure


to get


Southern


Democrats


national


Democratic


party


respond


to their


demands


state


and


national


levels


even


though


radical


support


elected


Southern


governors


congressmen


, and


state


legis


lators.


"Party


unity"


was


working


alliance


radical


Southerners


(Woodward


1951


, chapter


Radicals


third-party


ran


movement


candidates


formed


1892


western


election


alliance


in a


members


The


Populist


candidates


achieved


a large


degree


success


were


perceived


a threat


Southern


conservative









beneficial


to corporate


interests,


rather


the


expense


the


big


money,


landholder,


transportation


interests.


The


Populist


movement


was


often


colorful


and


popular


among


the


"common


man,


" but


lacked


a strong


political


power


base


the


state


county


level


(Scher


1992


Bourbon


Democrats


blocks.


radical


were


They


The


powerful


were


very


allied


about


existence


with


to relinquish


of a third


traditional


power


party


power


the


was


challenge


to one-party


dominance


and


white


solidarity


Using


issues


such


as the


"force


bill"


conservatives


were


able


to draw


the


color


line,


divide


Populists


, and


consolidate


the


white


vote.


The


Bourbons


did


not


allow


Southern


whites


to forget


the


Republican


association


with


the


defeat


the


Confederacy,


the


horrors


Reconstruction,


black


No Southern


third


party


could


survive


were


believed


to support


the force


bill,


which


would


allow


greater


federal


involvement


in voter


regi


station


control


of elections.


The


white


and


black


factions


the


Populist


movement


agreed


on the


legis


lation.


the


Populists


sought


to reconcile


their


differences


, the


conservatives


exploited


the


relationship


and


fraudulently


controlled


the


black


vote


(Woodward


1951)


Once


the


issue


of white


supremacy


was


raised,


victory


the


conservative


Democrats


was


assured,


thus


removing


the










The


the


end


South.


of Populism


With


was


most


also


serious


end


threat


to Republicanism


removed,


conservative


Democrats


became


only


instrument


political


activity


in the


South.


Conservative


Democrats


maintained


their


position


through


party


control


a small


number


of interests


, fanning


fires


race


issue


and


limiting


the


extent


of participation


the


political


process.


After


turn


century


the


seniority


stem


proved


to be a valuable


tool


maintaining


Democratic


dominance


South


3 The


Southern


Democratic


party


was


built


loyalties


developing


which


vested


over


interests


decades


and


generated


psychological


impressive


mechanisms


self


-perpetuation


resistance


to change


The


conservatives'


strategy


served


Democrats


well


and


secured


a one-party


system


fifty


years


Table


illustrates


the


declining


Republican


vote


between


1872


1932


Entering


the


1900s


Southern


Republican


parties


and


the


Populists


, with


some


exceptions


, had


ceased


to be


effective


competitors


political


office.


Republican


support


South


was


generally


limited


to blacks


traditional


Tennessee,


course,


mountain


western


these


parties


supporters


Virginia,


remained


in North


the


active


Carolina,


Ozarks

and R


eastern


Arkansas.


republicans


occasionally


won


election


in parts


the


South


Tennessee








Table


The
Pres


Decline
idential


of Republican
Elections


Competitiveness


1872 1880 1900 1916 1932
Year (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)


Deep South

Alabama 53 37 35 22 14
Georgia 45 35 28 7 8
Louisiana 56 37 21 7 7
Mississippi 64 30 10 5 4
South Carolina 76 34 7 2 2

Rim South

Arkansas 52 39 35 29 13
Florida 54 46 19 18 25
North Carolina 57 48 46 42 29
Tennessee 48 44 45 43 33
Texas 41 22 44 17 11
Virginia 51 40 31 32 30


Source


Compiled


(Washington,


Note:


Numbers


the


: Congress
represent


author
sional


from


Guide


Quarterly,


percentage


to U.S


Inc.


of presidential


. Elections


, 1975)


vote.








and


1904.


North


Carolina


continued


give


Republican


candidates

congression


40 percent or more

al elections (Guide


vote


to U.S


in some


. Elections


1975)


Candidates


still


appeared


under


the


Populist


label,


renegade


Democrats


ran


independent


races


, and,


the


Border


South,


Republicans


ran


and


could


win


high


office.


Neverthele


the


established


victories

d state D


parties


democratic


candidates


parties


were


out


rare.


side


The


Democratic


party


was


so dominant


that


election


to office


most


often


took


place


the


Democratic


primary


as there


was


no opposition


chapter


general


Republican


election


party'


(Scher


decline


1992


continued


through


the


first


three


decades


twentieth


century,


reaching


nadir


1930s


when


only


North


Carolina,


Tennessee


, and


Virginia


forth


candidates


statewide


office


with


any


regularity


Tennessee


elected


two


congressmen


in 1922


1930.


North


Carolina


gave


several


Republican


congressional


candidates


40 percent


the


vote.


that


time


Republicans,


even


in the


mountain


states


, often


gained


ess


than


25 percent


vote


statewide


office.


The


switch


of blacks


from


supporting


Republicans


supporting


Democrats


strengthened


Democrats


even


more.


Prior


to 1936


an estimated


three-quarters


of Northern


blacks


were


Republicans.


In 1936


blacks


switched


parties


such


large


numbers


that


nearly


three-quarters


of blacks


became








which


developed


between


1870


and


1900


remained


intact


nearly


the


first


half


century.


Southern


voters'


loyalty


a reflection


the


intense


regional


commitment


the


Southern


states


have


given


the


Democratic


party.


Table


indicates


the


level


of Republican


activity


and


decline


in party


competition


congre


ssional


races


between


1920


1928.


difference


in level


competition


between


the


Deep


South


and


the


Rim


South


apparent.


1928


the


Republican


party


was


competitive


only


North


Carolina,


Tennessee,


and


Virginia.


The


data


table


are


an aggregate


congressional


elections


1920,


1922,


1928


, but


a breakdown


of each


election


year


indicates


the


magnitude


decline


two-party


competitiveness


during


the


period.


In 1922


Republicans


competed


25 percent


fewer


congressional


races


than


1920.


In 1928


GOP


candidates


entered


59 percent


fewer


races


than


1920


45 percent


fewer


than


1922.


Democratic


party


dominance


was


secure


1930s.


Decline


Solid


South


The


party


intense


after


commitment


Reconstruction


South


well


gave


into


the


1900s


Democratic


was


altered


during


the


first


half


twentieth


century.


The


election


of 1948


often


cited


as the


point


at which


the


Solid


South


cracked.


The


decline


of political


devotion


was


* .


q


_I








Table


House


1920


Seats


1922


Contested


and


Republicans,


1928


Percent


Number
Contested


Percentage
Contested


Receiving
40%+


Deep


South


Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana


Mississippi
South Carolina

Rim South


Arkansas
Florida


North


Carolina


Tennessee
Texas
Virginia


Source


Computed


author


from


Guide


to U.S


. Elections


(Washington,


Congressional


Quarterly,


., 1975)








piecemeal


disengagement


(Key


1949,


chapter


15) .


With


the


national


prominence


achieved


Democrats


the


1930s


came


new


national


policy


which


conflicted


with


the


goals


and


influence


of Southern


officeholders.


Sectional


revolt


within


the


party


took


place


the


national,


state,


and


local


levels.


Southern


conservatives


found


themselves


opposed


to New


Deal


economic


policy


that


expanded


national


government


authority,


and


Southerners


were


uneasy


as a part


of a coalition


minorities


that


, and


included


big-city


labor


unions,


political


ethnic


machines.


The


recruitment


of blacks


as a partner


in the


New


Deal


coalition


brought


the


greatest


anxiety


to Southerners.


the


national


Democratic


party


committed


itself


the


cause


of blacks,


strong


cries


Southerners


separation


black

vote


from


spokesmen


inflamed


the

and


the


national


racist


Democrats


increasing

rhetoric.


were


heard.


influence


The


Militant

black


establishment


the


Fair


Employment


Practices


Committee


in 1941


drew


even


more


black


support


Democrats.


Blacks


now


were


a vital


part


the


urban


vote


in Northern


states.


Although


Tennessee


voted


Republican


the


1920


presidential


election,


South'


first


serious


break


with


the


Democratic


party


came


in the


1928


presidential


election.


difficult


to explain


South'


desertion


1928


the


same


terms


later


break


with


nartv.


The


South


r. .


L IK:









under


certain


severe


circumstances,


the


issues


1928--religion


the


liquor


question--were


transient


and


not


as deeply


ingrained


as those


that


separated


the South


and


the


national


Democratic


party


in 1948.


Given


the


strain


placed


on Southern


voters


Alfred


. Smith'


nomination,


important


to note


that


the


five


Southern


states


supporting


Hoover


were


Rim


South


states


The


Deep


South


states


remained


faithful


the


Democratic


party.


war


Roosevelt'


worked


national


to diminish


popularity


Southern


the


Democrats


Depression,


' willingness


to rebel


against


national


party


Neverthel


ess,


a series


of events


took


place


between


1936


1948


that


would


drive


a wedge


between


Democrats


into


motion


expressions


sec


tional


hostility


in pre


sidential


elections.


The


removal


the


two-thirds


nomination


rule,


the


national


convention'


endorsement


of Henry


Wallace


Vice-President,


Truman'


vigorous


support


civil


rights


and


Fair


Deal


economics


struck


at the


heart


of Southerners'


greatest


fear


S----


black


influence


additional


government


involvement


ves


of citizens.


Southern


Democrats


believed


they


could


bring


the


national


Democratic


party


to modify


indifference


Southern


interests


withholding


the South'


electoral


vote


Truman,


a tactic


they


knew


would


have


worked


against


Dnn aot'o 1


a Cae t


ml.. a


IN I l


nnrnn se


wi thdrawal


h a \7o

Y


1'~ r1 J ii iv









bring


the


party


together


on Southern


terms


(Sindler


1976)


Southern


dissents


badly


miscalculated


the


political


realities


the


time.


The


Dixiecrats


carried


only


four


Southern


states


the


1948


press


idential


election,


Deep


South


states.


Georgia


remained


loyal


Democrats


urging


Senator


Richard


Russell


The


1928


1948


pres


idential


defections


were


based


on different


concerns.


Whil


the


South


was


no longer


solidly


Democratic,


after


1948,


Southerners


gave


a large


proportion


their


votes


independent


movement


a popular


Southern


Democrat,


not


the


Republican


candidate


Not


until


1952


would


Southerners


give


large


stable


vote


to a presidential


candidate


who


was


not


Democratic


party


nominee.


General


Dwight


. Ei


senhower,


a national


hero,


carried


the


Rim


South


states


of Florida,


Tennessee,


Texas,


and


Virginia


1952


1956


Louisiana


was


added


1956


both


elections


Eisenhower


received


a higher


proportion


the


South'


vote


than


GOP


candidate


since


1900


The


Eisenhower


candidacy


gave


Southern


Republican


party


the


first


substantial


and


stable


vote


given


Southerners


presidential


candidate


outside


Democratic


party


(Seagull


1975;


Strong


1960)


The


black


vote,


some


of which


returned


the


Republicans


1956,


proved


to be


ess


stabi


than


Tm ^ T -^t


4-ha~~~~r 4n 4.an ta~teen C* n


In


C+- rh-nSnn


T.T^ C a


4-V^


3a rl -


~lhC nYL"I


n









level


1952.


Given


votes


denied


the


Democratic


party


1948,


1952


election


was


a critical


point


the


early


development


the


Southern


GOP


Nevertheless


there


was


rush


to displace


Democrats


at level


below


the


Presidency


Entering


the


1960s


Democrats


held


Southern


U.S


. Senate


seats


, 93 percent


the


House


seats,


96 percent


the


state


legislative


seats


, and


statewide


offi


ces


below


that


of Governor


Democrats


held


Governor'


office


each


Southern


state


between


1925


and


1961


(Lamis


1984)


The


Solid


South


cracked


presidential


level


1948,


but


Democratic


dominance


was


declining


very


slowly


Democratic


fortunes


were


on the


decline


the


presidential


level


decade


beginning


in 1952


, but


movement


away


from


electing


Democrats


would


come


about


until


the


early


1960s.


Table


indicates


decline


of party


competition


in congre


ssional


races


between


1948


and


1960


Only


the


Rim


South


states


of Florida


, North


Carolina,


Tennessee,


and


Virginia


did


Republicans


contest


one-half


or more


the


elections


during


period.


This


study


emphasis


zes


voting


behavior


, but


additional


indication


of Democratic


decline


can


seen


public


opinion


survey


Table


reflects


the


party


identification


of white


Southerners


between


1952


and


1960


Table


reveal


the


decline


Southern


Democratic









Table


House


Seats


Contested


Republicans,


1948-1960


Number
Contested


Percentage
Contested


Percentage
Receiving
40%+


Deep


South


Alabama
Georgia


Loui


siana


ssissippi


South


Carolina


28.2


50.0


28.1
16.0
41.7


Rim


South


Arkansas
Florida


North


28.0
63.3
81.3


Carolina


14.3
36.8


Tennessee
Texas
Virginia


47.4


Source:


Computed


author


from


Guide


to U.S.


Elections


(Washington,


Congressional


Quarterly,


Inc


, 1975)












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identification


fell


21 percent.


Republicans


did


not


gain


a one-for-one


basi


from


Democrats'


loss


, but


rather


gained


about


one-half


the


amount


of decline


Democratic


identification.


Early


Development


of Southern


Republicanism


Republicans


did


become


a part


the


political


landscape


the


1950s.


Republicans


have


been


a part


Southern


politics


since


the


founding


the


party


in 1854


The


perception


that


South


always


voted


the


Democratic


party


is not


accurate.


There


have


always


been


cracks


the


Democratic


Solid


South.


The


mountain


residents


of southwest


Virginia,


western


North


Carolina,


eastern


Tennessee,


the


Ozarks


have


been


at odds


with


the


lowland


planters


since


the


Civil


War


and


have


tended


to vote


Republican


ever


since.


Nevertheless,


after


Reconstruction


Southern


Republicans


played


a minor


role


in most


parts


the


region


as the


Solid


South


developed.


the


of World


War


II, Republicans


could


expect


win


no electoral


votes,


no governor'


office


'and


U.S.


Senate


seats


in the


South.


Tennessee


did


elect


two


Republicans


the


House


of Repre


sentatives


between


1946


1950


both


from


traditional


mountain


Republican


stricts


The


Republican


presidential


candidate


1944


Thomas


. Dewey,


claimed


only


one-quarter


the


South'


popular










the


mountain


counties


Rim


South


states


Arkansas,


North


Carolina,


Tennessee


, Virginia,


and


the


high-migration


counties


of South


Florida


(Bartley


and


Graham


1975)


. Key


wrote


Republican


party,


scarcely


deserves


Key,


the


"Only


name


North


of party"


Carolina,


(1949,


277)


Virginia,


According


Tennessee


do the


Republicans


277) .


approximate


Prior


the


1950s


reality


Southern


of a political


Republicans


party"


generally


could


be class


ified


as one


three


different


types


"Post


Office"


or patronage


Republicans,


mountain


Republicans,


or black


Republicans.


Most


Southern


Republican


parties


were


patronage


type,


those


not


interested


enlarging


the


party


or contesting


elections


who


were


more


interested


patronage


that


would


come


with


national


Republican


victory.


Mountain


Republicans'


origin


can


traced


directly


the


Civil


War


Mountain


people


were


the


slaveholding


black


-belt


independent


dwelling


small


-farm


elite.


owners


They


who


were


resented


the


proud


and


lowlanders


"high-hat"


attitude


usurpation


best


lands


and


the


power


govern.


The


highlander


with


ess


fertile


lands


hilly


terrain


had


little


use


slave


labor


and


sliked


the


lowlanders'


pretensions


an aristocratic


ancestry









secession


movement.


The


cleavage


of geographically


determined


outlook


provides


the


basi


much


the


differences

Democrats'


between


views


upland


on loyalty


residents'


the


Union


the

and


conservative


attachment


the


Republican


party.


Mountain


Republican


support


was


limited


to small


areas


the


South,


outs


local


elections


had


limited


influence


in the


Republican


party


These


traditional


Republicans


North


provided


Carolina,


a small


Tennessee,


stable


Virginia


vote


, but


the


existed


GOP


only


a few


scattered


counties


other


Southern


states


Black


Republicans


were


a remnant


the


blacks


who


supported


GOP


during


Reconstruction.


In 1910,


80 percent


nation'


black


population


lived


the


eleven


states


Old


Confederacy


1960


almost


one-half


1963)


of American


More


blacks


importantly


lived


from


outside


New


the


Deal


South


to 1956


(Steamer


about


80 percent


black


vote


went


to Democrat


candidates


in presidential


elections


Even


Eisenhower'


reelection


1956


drew


only


36 percent


black


vote.


When


the


black


vote


began


to take


on meaningful


proportions


, their


votes


went


the


Democratic


candidates


president


(Steamer


1963)


Blacks


have


overwhelmingly


supported


Democrats


since


1936


and


have


been


a diminishing


proportion


the










the


numbers,


1940s

and t


and


he


1950s


mountain


black


Republicans


Republicans


were


were reduced

highly limited


in numbers


geographical


location.


The


Southern


Republican


party


was


the


hands


patronage


Republicans.


Alexander


The


Heard


lack


(1952),


of leadership


who


was


observed


apparent


a greater


lesser


degree


in every


Southern


state


there


must


be changes


the


high


command


party


is to grow"


248)


Earlier


, Key


(1949)


found


Southern


Republicans


not


desirous


of office.


He wrote


that


they


are


sound,


honest,


reputable


people


, who


are


mostly


successful


businessmen,


but


they


are


politicians


who


build


political


parties


(chapter


Southern


Republican


leadership


developed


in the


early


1950s


Riding


General


Eisenhower'


popularity


the


presidential


elections


1952


1956,


Republicans


combined


their


efforts


in a serious


attempt


to capitalize


the


South'


dissati


sfaction


with


national


Democratic


party


and


expand


the


Republican


following


Business


prof


ess


ional


people


who


migrated


the


South


as part


the


industrial


zation


economic


expan


sion


after

urban


who

and


World

and s


had


War


uburb


developed


government


II provided lea

an middle-class


negative


taxing


dership.

migrants


attitudes

spending.


Th

fr


toward

Young


*


ey were 30o

om small t

social pr

executives


ined


owns

ograms

and










a pivotal


role.


Other


groups,


including


reformers


interested


building


a two-party


system


and


ideologies


which


were


conservative


on racial


and


economic


issues


joined


the


movement


(Bass


and


DeVries


1976;


Peirce


1972


Seagull


1975).


Prior


the


1950s


Southerners


often


expressed


their


disenchantment


with


Democratic


party


supporting


independent


Democratic


movements


candidates


uncommitted


electors.


There


was


little


increase


partisan


identification


or electoral


support


Republicans


(Bass


and


DeVries


1976).


Eisenhower'


candidacy


was


the


first


major


breakthrough


Republicans


interested


building


expanded


party;


even


national


hero,


who


might


have


run


president


as either


a Democrat


or Republican,


carried


four


Rim


South


states


1952


while


failing


to win


any


Deep


South


state.


Eisenhower


won


four


Rim


South


states


again


in 1956


he also


carried


Deep


South


state


Louisiana.


Development


of a competitive


Republican


party


has


roots


in the


1950s


and


in presidential


politi


CS.


(See


table


.5.)


The


power


1952

the


and

newly


1960 elections

found Southern


demonstrated

support. I


the


n 1960


taying

the


Republican


presidential


candidate


carried


three


Rim


South


states,


but


was


unable


to win


a single


Deep


South


state.









Table


Republican Presidential


Vote,


1940-1960


1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)


Deep South

Alabama 14 18 19 35 39 42
Georgia 15 18 18 30 33 37
Mississippi 4 6 3 40 25 25
South Carolina 4 5 4 49 25 49
Louisiana 14 18 19 47 53 29

Rim South

Arkansas 21 30 21 44 46 43
Florida 26 30 34 55 57 52
North Carolina 26 33 33 46 49 48
Tennessee 32 39 37 50 49 53
Texas 19 17 24 53 55 49
Virginia 32 37 41 56 55 52


Source:
(Washingt


Compiled by author from Guide to U.S


on,


Congressional


Quarterly,


. Elections


Inc. ,


1975)









Nevertheless,


other


signs


pointed


to a much


less


potent


second


Southern


party


than


that


indicated


the


presidential


vote.


The


tremendous


rise


Southern


support


GOP


presidential


candidates


was


accompanied


corresponding


success


of Republican


candidates


offi


ces


below


pre


sidential


level


Development


had


been


top


down


with


state


and


local


offices


most


elusive


, many


because


Republicans


failed


to contest


seats.


Table


indicates


Ranney


Scale


scores


the


Southern


States


, 1946-1963


scores


show


the


slowness


of change


interparty


competition


despite


support


Republican


presidential


candidates.


Ranney


characterized


states


with


scores


.900


or more


Democratic


one-party


states


those


between


.700


and


.900


modified


one-party


states,


and


those


between


.300


and


.700


as two-party


states


(Ranney


1971)


No Southern


state


attained


two-party


status.


Only


North


Carolina,


Tennessee,


and


Virginia


could


be classified


as modified


one-party


states.


All


the


Deep


South


states


one-half


the


Rim


South


states


were


Democratic


one-party


states.


While


press


idential


Republicanism


was


playing


major


role


in Southern


politics,


acceptance


institutional


zation


of Republicans


was


yet


arrive.


thi


point


time


presidential


Republicanism


had


not








Table


Levels of


Interparty Competition


in Southern


States,


1946-1963


State Ranney Score


Deep South

Alabama .957
Georgia .992
Louisiana .987
Mississippi .981
South Carolina 1.000

Rim South

Arkansas .943
Florida .922
North Carolina .879
Tennessee .872
Texas .959
Virginia .880


Source:
DeVries,


(New


York:


Adapted from Jack Bas
The Transformation of


Basic Books,


1976,


s and Walter
Southern Politics


511,


table E-1).








next


two


chapters


discuss


institutionalization


Republicanism


at all


levels


of electoral


office.


Notes


'Tennessee voted
presidential nominee


majority
1920.


Republican


2The 1928 presidential election provides an example
the voting behavior divergence between the Deep and Rim
South states. The 1948 and 1964 presidential elections
more recent examples.


of

are


3Reelection


of Southern


incumbents


placed


Southerners


in lea
1930s
senior
large
result
Southe
and 60
Incumb
positi
unchal


dership
Southern


ity
deg
ing
rne
pe
ent
ons


to a
ree o
publ
rs he
recent
Sout
were


pos0
re]


iti
pre


cquire
f infl
ic pol
Id 65
of th
herner


ons i
sent
lead
uence
icy.
perce


virtual


n the


major cha
holding i
ly assure


Hous
and
pos
opos
(19
major
irs
nflu


d


nd S
ator
ons
legi
rep
enat
the
ial


of reelect


enate


had
nd e
lati
rts
cha
house
ongr
ion


su
xer
on
tha
irm
by
ess
and


the
icient
se a
d the


anships
1960.
ional
often


ran


lenged.


4President Franklin
in Southern elections in
senators who opposed the


D. Roosevelt personally intervened
an attempt to replace conservative
policies of his administration.


5Florida,
Virginia gave


North
Hoover


Carolina, Tennessee,
a majority of votes.


Texas,


and


6Eisenhower was the
nominee to receive over
twentieth century.


first Republican presidential
40 percent of Southern votes in


the


7
Scher


See Black
(1992).


and


Black


(1987),


Sturrock


(1988b),


and


sSee


Steven


Finkel


Howard


Scarrow,


"Party


Identification
Consequence,"
p. 642 for exi
reluctance of
the large prop
independent.


and Party En
Journal of Po
t polls taken
Southerners t
portion of Sou
More recent p
n Ctkra nerniinh


ollment: The
itics, vol.
in 1982 indi
self-identi
herners iden
rtisan ident


erence and
. 2 (1985),
g the
Republican
ng as
tion surveys
\


he fnrrnr;l









9Winston County,
known because of its
protest over Alabama'
Fannin County in nort
Republican candidates


Alabama, is
attempt to
s secession
h Georgia h
since the


perhaps
withdraw
prior to
s strong
860s.


the most well
from the state
the Civil War
ly supported


"For a fine indepth
organizational developme
Southern Strategy and th
Republican Parties (Ann
1989).


study of Southern Republican party
nt, see Joseph A. Aistrup, The
e Development of the Southern
Arbor, MI: University Microfilms,


"Austin


among the
two-party
candidate
senate he
seats in
Democrats
state sen
The score
to 1.000,
competiti
indicates
between .
states wi
two-party


a
n
a
0


Ranney


e st
and
or,
vari
bsol
wou
one
0 an


h s
sta


s by
for
the
Demo
ate
(4)
and
ed f
ute
Id b
-par


d


9


cores
tes.


(1965)


measured


averaging (1)
governor cast


averac
crats


Hou
the
sta
rom
Dem
e .
ty
oo0


se
P'
te
.1
oc:
50'
Dei
ar<


percent


, (3) the
of Repre
percentage
represent
000, perf


r
0
eI
e


between


interparty


the
for
tage
ave
sent
of
tati
ect


atic dominant
. A Ranney
ocratic stat
classified


.300


mean
the D
of s
rage
active
terms
ve he


Rep
ion
sco
e.
mod
700


U

r

i


per
emoc
eats
perc
s he
for
Id b


bli
P
e o
Sta
fie
are


competition
centage of th
ratic
in the state
entage of
Id by
governor,
y Democrats.
n domination,
fect
.900 or more
s with scores
one-party and


classified


ie


I


I


.


ge












CHAPTER


SOUTHERN


ACCEPTANCE


OF REPUBLICANISM:


PRESIDENTIAL


REPUBLICANISM


From


1932


to 1944


the


Southern


states


voted


Democratic


majorities


each


presidential,


senatorial,


and


gubernatorial


election.


Prior


to 1936,


approximately


three-quarters


of Northern


blacks


were


Republican.


Partisan


change


came


quickly


blacks.


From


the


latter


years


the


New


Deal


to 1956


about


80 percent


the


black


vote


went


to Democratic


presidential


candidates


(Steamer


1963).


The


movement


of Southern


whites


from


Democratic


allegiance


acceptance


of Republican


candidates


came


about


much


more


slowly.


the


view


this


research


that


the


transformation


Southerners


from


Democratic


partisanship


level


acceptance


of Republicanism


presidential


level


began


the


early


1950s


was


accomplished


the


presidential


election


1972.


Acceptance


of Republicans


came


fits


and


starts


and


over


the


resistance,


and


sometimes


the


help,


the


black-belt


voters.


can


be shown


that


the


basis


was


a persistent


expanding


white-collar


sector


Republican


support.


A state-by-state


discussion


sources


of Republican


support


is a part


this


chapter,








but


an overview


the


development


of Southern


Presidential


Republicanism


order


point.


Over


the


1952


-1972


period


, Republican


development


came


about


an irregular


pattern.


Blacks


played


a role


the


1950s


with


limited


support


of Dwight


Eisenhower


a GOP


candidate


the


South


who


gave


respectability


Third-party


movements


the


in 1948


Republican


1968


party


provided


a transition


mechanism


making


it easier


Southerners


vote


a candidate


outs


Democratic


party


The


elections


the


of 1948,


political


1964,


differences


1968


also


between


provide


the


Deep


an indication


South


Rim


South


Strom


Thurmond'


States'


Rights


party


carried


four


Deep


South


states


in 1948,


George


Wallace'


American


Independent


party


won


four


Deep


South


states


single


Rim


South


state--Arkansas--in


1968


Barry


Goldwater


won


five


Deep


South


states


in 1964


None


the


three


candidates


carried


a border


South


state


except


Arkansas


1968


The


Rim


South


voted


Democratic


1948


and


1964


Republican


1968


except


Arkan


sas


Texas.


Southern


presidential


Republicanism


was


established


the


1972


election


of Richard


Nixon


who


carried


entire


region


a substantial


margin.


stable


underlying


urban


middle-class


Republican


presidential


vote


pers


isted


over


entire


period


and


been


well


documented


y Donald


Strong


(1960) an


Louis


vw w


.







the


urban,


white


middle-class


support


of Southern


Republicanism


grown


rapidly


since


the


1950s


and


1960s


and


today


forms


the


backbone


the


Southern


GOP.


They


also


present


evidence


of GOP


presidential


support


spreading


the


middle


class


of smaller


towns,


but


are


as optimistic


about


Republican


electoral


fortunes


at the


state


and


local


level


Through


the


1944


elections


Democratic


presidential


candidates


received


overwhelming


Southern


support.


Southern


alienation


from


the


national


Democratic


party


came


only


after


a prolonged


estrangement,


a conservative


congressional


alliance


with


Republicans,


many


political


crises


(Steamer


their


1963)


origins


Southerners


highest


perceived


level


these


crises


of government


and


had


within


the


Democratic


party


The


Roosevelt


admini


station


supported


economic


measures


in private


that


Southerners


affairs


made


believed


some


were


efforts


government


to achieve


intrusion


civil


rights


blacks.


Neverthel


ess


, Roosevelt


was


motivated


civil


rights


issues


The


President'


wife


was


an outspoken


advocate


of civil


rights


Roosevelt


issued


bans


on discrimination


defense-related


industries


established


a Fair


Employment


Practices


Commission.


Roosevelt'


civil


rights


policies


were


limited.


They


did


not


ban


racial


discrimination


federal


agencies


or the









The


President


personally


campaigned


against


conservative


Democratic


senators


in an attempt


purge


the


party


those


opposed


to his


policies


Roosevelt'


nationwide


Democratic


personal


party.


popularity


President


held


South


could


win


the


without


South,


and


he openly


sought


black


support.


The


ideological


line


established


New


Deal


was


continued


Harry


Truman'


Fair


Deal


extensive


civil


rights


programs


under


a Truman


administration


, further


alienating


Southerners.


1948


conditions,


personalities


, and


events


had


changed.


The


South


was


However


presented


, thi


did


with


an opportunity


necessarily


mean


an open


a move


break.


toward


Republicanism


The


GOP


taken


a civil


rights


stance


similar


that


Democrats


, and


Thomas


Dewey


held


little


attraction


to Southerners


Many


believed


a totally


Southern


view


was


required


to sati


the


Southern


mood.


When


liberal


the


civil


1948


rights


Democratic


plank


national


convention


platform,


included


delegates


from


Missi


ssippi


and


Alabama


walked


out.


These


delegates-


-party


leaders


from


Mississippi


South


Carolina


conservative


leaders--met


Birmingham


in the


summer


to form


"States'


Rights


Democrats


Governor


. Strom


Thurmond


South


Carolina


was


nominated


as an alternative


the


"regular


Democrats'"


nominee,


Harry


Truman.


-taa


* 1


A


*


* 1 J









remained


with


Truman


the


urging


of Senator


Richard


. Russell.


The


States'


Rights


party


or "Dixiecrats


they


became


known,


had


little


appeal


the


Border


South


where


no state


vote


exceeded


17 percent


Southern


Republicans


benefitted


indirectly


from


the


Dixiecrat


movement.


Southern


Democrats


were


divided;


there


was


no reason


to believe


States


' Righters


would


become


Republicans


overnight


or across


electoral


level


After


all,


Thurmond


won


only


the


states


where


the


States'


Rights


Democrats


displaced


the regular


Democrats


' position


on the


ballot.


Third-party


movements


and


independent


elector


slates


played


a significant


role


the


development


acceptance


of Republicanism


the


Deep


South


and


lesser


role


the


Rim


South


Where


third


parties


were


esent


elections


between


1948


1968,


there


was


large


increase


the Republican


proportion


vote.


Third-party


activity


contributed


to the


instability


the Southern


Republican


vote


during


party'


development


and


made


evident


the


ambivalence


with


which


Southerners


accepted


presidential


Republicanism


(Seagull


1975


The


first


pres


idential


election


the


1950s


revealed


the


willing


ess


of Southerners


to support


Republican


pres


idential


nominees.


Four


Rim


South


states


gave


ma A;C1 SF


I~ I. rLmnns r+tra n b


Dantihl I rran


Tr^+- f


4-^ 4-l^


J--I_- --


r








and


Virginia


were


joined


Republican


column


in 1956


Loui


slana.


Eisenhower


received


a remarkable


48 percent


the


region'


popular


vote


in both


elections.


The


GOP'


strongest


support


came


from


the


voters


who


supported


Thurmond


1948,


from


peripheral


Southern


states.


There


was


also


a difference


within


states


Thurmond


did


best


black-belt


county


, whereas


Eisenhower


was


strongest


mountain


county


largest


urban


areas


(Strong


1960).


In 1956


each


eleven


Southern


states


Republican


percentage


vote


in metropolitan


county


exceeded


total


percentage


of all


remaining


counties


Strong


1960)


The


Southern


urban


support


of Eisenhower


was


the


beginning

Republican


of a stable


vote


outside


substantial


the


press


traditional


idential


mountain


Republicans.


The


gains


came


disproportionally


from


higher


socioeconomic


status


voters


Seagull


1975;


Strong


1960)


More


importantly


, the


upsurge


in Southern


support


Republican


presidential


nominees


was


accompanied


corresponding


victories


of Republican


candidates


state


local


offices


Few


Southern


state


local


offi


ces


were


contested


GOP.


Republican


gains


were


clearly


presidential


phenomenon,


although


entirely


"a vote


the


man








The


Eisenhower


vote


was


random.


A vote


the


man


would


have


shown


Eisenhower


doing


equally


well


the


cities


levels


, suburbs,


Randomn


ess


farms


, and


of support


across


did


social


exist


and


income


(Strong


1960;


1963)


Although


Eisenhower


did


receive


support


the


metropolitan


areas


, black-belt


county


and


traditional


Republican


regions,


Southern


presidential


Republi


canism


was


primarily


an urban


white-collar


movement


1952


(Seagull


1975)


Loui


Harris


(1954)


found


Eisenhower


to be


more


popular


the


among


country


white-collar


Southern


urban


ass


voters


than


any


behaved


other


much


lik


group i

e their


Northern


counterparts


the


elections


1952


and


1956


Strong


1963)


This


important


because


the


newly


found


white-collar


segment


the


Southern


GOP


vote


became


the


most


stable


component


of support


Republican


party


Lingering


notions


the


Republican


vote


being


simply


vote


a man


were


dismissed


the


1960


actions


when


Richard


. Nixon


received


only


to 3


percent


ess


than


votes


received


Eisenhower


each


the


two


previous


elections.


Republi


cans


were


benefitting


from


the


urban


growth


economic


development


the


South


(Seagull


1975


Strong


1960) .


Nixon'


support


came


in a


large


degree


from


the


upper


-income-level


voters


the metropolitan


areas


vote


very


similar


to that


received


Eisenhower


(Strong


1963)


The


Nixon


vote


gave


every


indication


that


v








enduring,


built


around


a single


candidate


personality.


Southern


The


1960


Republicans


presidential


how


important


election


South'


served


votes


to show


had


become.


Eisenhower


could


win


outside


the


South


the


1960


race


was


ose


enough


to emphasize


the


importance


the


Southern


states


to both


parties


During


the


Eisenhower


years,


Supreme


Court


handed


down


the


Brown


decision


the


President


enforced


Little


Rock.


Southerners


instinctively


looked


to the


Democratic


party


relief.


Neither


John


. Kennedy


nor


Nixon


made


a racial


appeal.


Nixon


was


no Eisenhower


to Southerners,


but,


rather,


was


not


widely


known.


Kennedy


appealed


to Southerners'


strong


military


tradition


he selected


Senator


Lyndon


Johnson


of Texas


as his


running


mate


Kennedy


won


1960


, but


Nixon


received


47 percent


Southern


vote


actually


won


a majority


popular


votes


in the Rim


South.


The


growth


press


idential


Republicanism


the


1950s


and


early


1960s


brought


a surge


of citizen


part


cipation


in Republi


can


party


moderate


organizations


leadership


several


attracted


changes


the


in leadership.


party


The


with


Eisenhower


candidacy


replaced


post-office


Republicans,


with


the


election


John


. Kennedy


1960


were


themselves

supporting


pushed


the


aside


conservative


right-wing


positions


activists


of Senator


Barry


Goldwater.


The


activism


early


1960s


also


brought








In 1961


John


Tower


of Texas


was


elected


to a U.S.


Senate


seat


Republicans


contested


two


congressional


seats


special


elections


Texas.


Conner


Harrington


received


11 percent


vote


District


and


Joe


Meirsner


received


25 percent


the


13th


strict,


which


included


San


Antonio.


Republican


candidate


Charlton


Lyons


rece


ived


46 percent


vote


the


congress


ional


district


race


in Loui


siana


the


1962


congr


essi


onal


elections


the


GOP


contested


fifty-s


House


seats,


fourteen


more


than


1960


Republican


candidates


won


eleven


districts,


including


seven


incumbent


seats


one


additional


seat


in Texas


Florida,


North


Carolina


, and


Tennessee.


two


congr


ess


ional


races


Virginia


one


Tennessee


GOP


candidates


polled


49 percent


vote.


The


GOP


run


U.S


. Senate


seat


Alabama


was


nearly


successful


when


James


Martin


polled


49.1 percent


vote


against


incumbent


ster


Hill


(Strong


1963).


the


local


level


Republicans


ran


Mayor


Meridian,


ssippi,


1961


and


New


Orleans


in 1962


receiving


percent


vote,


respe


actively.


Lowndes


post


County


of public


Missi


ppi,


prosecutor


elected


, the


first


a Republican


GOP


the


officeholder


ssippi


century


, and


two


Republicans


were


elected


the


City


Council


of Atlanta,


Georgia.


Mobile


, Alabama,


elected


a Republican


Mayor


in October


1961


(Strong


1963)









and


grassroots


activity


was


on the


rise,


GOP


was


unabi


to crack


Deep


South


even


presidential


level,


except


Loui


siana


1956


. Thi


would


change


1964


In 1964


five


Deep


South


states


gave


their


votes


a Republican

Reconstructio


presidential

n. Senator


candidate

Goldwater


for

won


the

only


first

the f


time


ive


since


Deep


South


states


and


home


state


of Arizona.


The


1964


presidential


campaign


brought


with


a Republican


"Southern


strategy"


that


can


be used


to distinguish


differences


between


the


Rim


and


Deep


South


states


The


Goldwater


Southern


strategy


was


born


Atlanta


in a


1961


speech


Dismi


ssing


the


GOP'


chances


of drawing


large


share


the


black


vote


the


Republican


nominee


appealed


to Southern


whites


' opposition


to the


liberal


policies


the


Kennedy


Johnson


admini


stations.


Goldwater'


position


domestic


issues


was


similar


to John


. Calhoun'


states'


rights


position


which


argued


that


much


power


and


authority


had


been


centralized


federal


government


(Scher


1992)


A Goldwater


presidency


would


leave


the


enforcement


integration


stat


es.


Goldwater


had


voted


against


the


1964


Civil


Rights


Act.


reward


was


electoral


votes


Deep


South


states.


was


the


firs


Republican


carry


these


most


Southern


states


Goldwater'


vote


was


dependent


on traditional


Republicans


or the


new


1


-L- _


.4 f% A S%


.. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Y -Y 1I -a i 4.t.A .U -t -r jI


.. Y1'L


U~L~AY


~hn


C


s^ 1 U









support


from


blacks.


The


Goldwater


strategy


removed


any


opportunity


of black


support.


Since


1964


the


black


vote


has


been


given


almost


entirely


to Democratic


presidential


candidates.


Goldwater


received


62 percent


the


Deep


South


vote


and


43 percent


votes


from


Rim


South


states.


The


Deep


South


support


Goldwater


was


seen


some


as a


measure


the


depth


of support


a separatis


t racist


policy


(Hess


Broder


1967)


After


the


1964


election


the


Southern


states


had


voted


Republican


in at least


one


presidential


election


except


Arkansas


and


North


Carolina.


Neverthel


ess


, the


South


was


not


monolithic


voting


behavior


the


presidential


level


The


Rim


South


the


Deep


South


supported


different


presidential


candidates


1948,


1964,


1968


Although


Eisenhower


was


able


carry


four


Rim


South


states


and


Nixon


three,


only


one


Deep


South


state


went


either


Republican.


The


presidential


elections


1964


and


1968


are


indicators


of divergence


between


regions


the


South


Barry


Goldwater


carried


Deep


South


states


1964


, while


the


same


time


Republican


support


in the


Rim


South


declined


dramatically


from


level


achieved


1952


-1960


with


the


senhower


Nixon


candidacies.


Explanations


political


differences


between


the


regions


include


race,


urbani


zation


and


industrialization,


migration,


- S ft ft S


'I


Jl ri


II


F









South


(Black


and


Black


1987;


Cosman


1966;


Scher


1992;


Seagull


1975).


The


eleven


former


Confederate


states


form


a region


defined


many


years


when


the


bonds


common


interests


were


anchored


race


issue


Even


then,


however,


the


South


was


not


monolithic


political


behavior


or tradition.


The


flat


lands


of much


Deep


South


provided


a rural


environment


required


suitable


large


numbers


large


of slave


single-crop

laborers t


plantations


that


o plant


harvest


the


crop.


The


hill


mountain


lands


the


Rim


South


were


farmed


land


owners


growing


a diversity


crops


on smaller


plots


land


using


family


labor


Black


slave


labor


was


limited


the


black


population


was


a small


proportion


the


total


population


Rim


South


Thi


was


unlike


Deep


South,


where


the


black


population


grew


to majorities


in some


counties.


The


large


rural


basi


black

for o


population


ne-party


politics


Deep

(Key


South

1949).


was


the


Even


demographic


the


Deep


South'


and


largest


maintained


cities


the


had


tradition


substantial

nal attitude


proportions

on race re


of blacks


lations


(Black


and


Black


1987)


high


black


rural


counties


accounted


no more


than


percent


peripheral


South


votes


in 1980,


one


-sixth


votes


high


black


rural


counties


the


Deep


South


(1987).


t f


-a-


-.I L





I


t


^









1957).


The


proposition


that


urbanism


is conducive


competitive


party


systems


rests


comfortably


the


conventional


wisdom


of political


science


literature


(Key


1949;


Patterson


and


Caldeira


1984;


Strong


1960).


Key


predicted


development


of Southern


cities


would


bring


political


change


and


the


result


would


be a South


less


determined


to maintain


the


traditional


race


relations.


Key


argued


the


socioeconomic


diversity


the


cities


would


encourage


political


cleavages


that


would


make


difficult


a single


party


to dominate


politics


(1949).


The


Rim


South


consistently


been


more


urban


than


the


Deep


South


(Black


Black


1987).


In the


1950s


urban


growth


was


greatest


in Texas


, Tennessee,


Florida,


and


Virginia.


As of


1980


South


had


large


metropolitan


areas


, two-thirds


of which


were


Rim


South.


Sixty


percent


the


Rim


South


vote


comes


from


urban


areas


compared


to 44 percent


Deep


South


(1987)


The


development


of metropolitan


areas


the


Rim


South


has


encouraged


political


competition


less


influenced


large


black


population


a tradition


of Democratic


party


loyalty.


In-migration


that


accompanied


the


urbanization


South


since


World


War


II has


contributed


to Republican


development.


Most


often


migrants


were


white


and


middle


A t -a-- -a--s a----,....... -z tt Li.


1 I J -T


'I


-~LI I- A









Southern


cities


faced


less


pressure


to develop


Democratic


party


tradition


(Scher


1992).


comparison


of presidential


voting


behavior


the


subregions


shows


clearly


presence


of a traditional


Republican


support


Rim


South


states


and


just


clearly


the


mixed


receptions


Republican


nominees


received


the


two


regions.


(See


table


.1.)


The


Rim


South


states


embraced


Republican


press


idential


candidates


earlier


to a greater


degree


than


the


states


the


Deep


South.


The


Republican


vote


the


twenty


-year


period


prior


to the


Eisenhower


years


never


exceeded


41 percent


any


Rim


South


state.


From


1952


until


1960


the


mean


Rim


South


Republican


vote


was


51 percent.


the


Deep


South


the


mean


Republican


vote


from


1940


through


1948


was


12 percent


37 percent


the


years


1952-1960


The


Deep


South


was


much


slower


in accepting


Republicanism,


and


only


one


Deep


South


state


gave


a majority


votes


the


GOP


nominee


parties


had


between


taken


1940


liberal


1960


civil


to that


rights


time


stance.


both


See


table


During


the


1952-1972


period


Republicans


received


majority


total


vote


cast


in presidential


elections


the


South


(Bass


and


DeVries


1976).


Even


though


Southerners


had


broken


the


habit


of supporting


Democratic


presidential










































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did


Republicans


make


significant


inroads


the


state


and


local


level


South


(Black


and


Black


1987;


Heyman


1985;


Scher


1992)


Republican


identification


declined


1964


nearly


one-half


1960


level,


and


would


not


reach


1960


levels


again


until


1980,


even


among


white


Southerners


(Black


and


Black


1987)


Much


the


Republican


vote


was


believed


to be a protest


against


a national


Democratic


party


too


liberal


Southern


interests.


The


voting


behavior


Southerners


the


1968


presidential


election


indicates


the


uncertainty


with


which


Southerners


approach


Republicanism.


Southerners


while


chose


embracing


instead


neither.


to send


The


a message


message


to both


to Democrats


parties

was a


protest


against


liberal


policies


and


the


national


party


known


that


other


Democrats


were


ready


to step


forward


to represent


Southern


interests.


Republicans


message


was


that


Southerners


would


turn


an acceptable


Democrat


to protect


their


interests


before


turning


the


Republican


party


The


South


was


to be


taken


granted.


Southerners


been


supporting


Republican


presidential


nominees


at high


level


since


1952


, but


were


not


a reliable


part


of a Republican


voting


coalition.


The


Wallace


the


vote


national


continued

Democratic


protest


party


of Southerners


Wallace


carried


aimed


Alabama,


Georgia,


Loui


slana,


Mississ


ipp:


i in


the


Deep


South


and


- -^_ *


-A'-


a. ---1


y- ----


-.. --11


rr -? _l -


_, _


^2


~_L









Democrat


Hubert


Humphrey


came


in third.


1948,


Deep


South


voters


rejected


Democratic


party


, but


were


not


ready


to substitute


the


Republican


party


in its


place.


Twice


over


a sixteen-year


period


the


Deep


South


states


supported


a presidential


candidate


outside


the


Democratic


party


without


turning


to the


Republicans.


The


1972


election


offered


no third-party


alternative,


and


Southerners


were


content


with


Nixon


presidency.


The


vote


deci


sion


was


difficult


most


Southerners.


The


Democrats


nominated


a Northern


liberal,


George


McGovern,


who


failed


to be competitive


nationwide.


Nixon


refined


Southern


strategy


with


use


of code


words


such


"forced


busing"

voters


and

who


"quotas

opposed


," both

school


of which a

integration


appealed

and af


to Southern


firmative


action.


Nixon


appealed


to Southerners


in other


ways--strong


military,


stopping


spending,


appointment


strict


Constructionists


to the


Supreme


Court


(Peirce


1974).


The


election


1972


cannot


a precise


measure


Republican


breadth


support


of Republican


South,


acceptance


does


indicate


of presidential


nominees,


given


a clear


choice.


Both


subregions


the


South


gave


Nixon


majorities


, the


first


time


a Republican


nominee


received


majority


support


entire


region.


Without


George


Wallace


option


black-belt


whites


showed


increasing


1tDontihi 4 nni


w; 1 nn *c


C~ a t~n~ a









The


most


revealing


evidence


of Republican


development


and


acceptance


can


be found


the


research


of Louis


Seagull


(1975).


The


next


section


, a state-by-state


examination


the


bases


of Southern


Republicanism,


relies


heavily


Seagull'


indepth


study


of Southern


Republicanism.


Seagull


argues


that


a reliable


basi


the


Republican


vote


exists


because


of realignment


of middle-class


white-collar


whites


the


South


Seagull


explains


Republican


vote


as the


product


the


white


contributions


-collar


segment,


the


traditional


the


Republicans


black-belt


the


sector.


Recognizing


the


South


monolithic


distinct


geographical


social


differences


exist


the


region


Seagull


categorizes


the


states


the


manner


accepted


many


researchers


of Southern


politics


, the


Deep


South


the


Rim


South


(Bass


DeVries


1976;


Black


and


Black


1987;


Lamis


1984;


Scher


1992


Peirce


1974)


Although


a part


eleven


Confederate


states


often


considered


"the


South,


" the


Deep


South


states


have


geographical,


social


political


characteristics


that


differ


from


those


Rim


South


states.


The


, flat


plantation


-size


farm


lands


,a large


black


population,


and


slave


labor


story


contributed


heavily


the


political


differences


between


subregions


the


South.


One


result


A-'- - -e,-'i


3Inr1 4 3


SL


nI a -I


s^

A-L










third-party


movements


which


were


successful


in attracting


support


the


from


upland


the


black-belt


counties.


Both


counties


Solid


and


South


and


lesser


degree


third-party


activity


reflect


the


Deep


South'


attitude


on the


race


issue.


The


reluctance


Deep


South


to accept


the


political


realities


of a changing


society


resulted


instability


voting


behavior


Southerners


particularly


voters


the


black


belt.


This


instability


was


accompanied


a growing


white


-collar


sector


which


would


become


basi


of a stable


and


significant


Republican


vote


and


separate


partisans


along


economic


dimensions.


Between


1952


1972


the


variability


Republican


strength


was


result


surge


movements


, not


durable


shift


social


bases


of support.


Drawing


Seagull'


research


one


can


explain


large


degree


dynamics


of presidential


elections


the


South


and


the


ses


of Southern


presidential


Republicanism


on a


state-by


-state


level.


Deen


South


States


Alabama


The


mountain


county


of Alabama


provided


Alabama'


Republican


party


with


a small


stable


vote


during


the


ADaonrlh i an


crinnnrt


nVsr


thP


^^^ I^ ^h *tk ^B ^b


rlrk


1QAn a<


| It1









the


1972


election


of Nixon


were


result


surges


and


withdrawals


of support


the


black-belt


and


white-collar


sectors.


The


came


first

1952 w


departure


hen


from


Eisenhower


a stable


drew


traditional


considerable


GOP


support


vote

from


both


the


white-collar


sector


black


-belt


voters


addition


to the


traditional


Republican


vote


The


black-belt


vote


was


least


stable


three,


1956


black-belt


counties'


contribution


declined.


The


white-collar


sector


contribution


increased


steadily


until


1960,


and


traditional


mountain


vote


remained


relative


stable.


Goldwater'


Southern


strategy


brought


a second


discontinuity


into


Alabama'


Republican


vote


1964.


Comparison


with


the


average


vote


in the


state


indicates


the


white-collar


sector


traditional


mountain


support


were


less


influential


Republican


vote


than


the


black-belt


counties.


Both


traditional


support


and


the


white-collar


vote


contributed


negatively


the


total


Republican


vote.


Seagull'


study


(1975)


indicates


the


importance


race


Alabama's


1964


presidential


vote


well


as the


1968


election.


The


from


1968


previous


election


elections.


brought


Nixon'


another


support


severe


came


departure


almost









The


GOP


vote


correlated


highly


with


1940


vote,


although


the


white-collar


sector


contributed


significantly


1968


The


elections


between


1948


1968


indicate


the


reluctance


of Alabama


voters


to give


Republicans


a large


and


stable


presidential


vote.


Given


an alternative


1968,


Alabama


voters


abandoned


GOP,


leaving


only


a small


traditional


vote


the


white-collar


sector


to support


Nixon.


This


was


pattern


throughout


Deep


South


states.


GeorQia


Georgia'


Republican


presidential


vote


was


one


most


stable


during


period


1940-1960.


Even


1952


the


GOP


vote


did


alter


severely


1948


distribution.


Outside


1952


, Georgia


Alabama


were


the


most


stable


the


Deep


South


states.


Georgia'


stable


Republican


vote


can


traced


to a small


traditional


vote


the


entire


twenty-year

Republican


period

support


from

was


1940

joined


to 1960.


1952


The


traditional


a white-collar


vote


that


proved


to be


very


stable.


Georgia'


white-collar


sector,


although


a stable


part


of Republican


support,


played


ess


prominent


role


than


Deep


South


states


except


Louisiana.


Between


1940


1960


black-belt


support


was


missing


from


the


traditional


Republican


and


white-collar


voting


coalition.








Georgia'


pattern


of stability


was


disrupted


Goldwater'


1964


presidential


bid.


The


sources


instability


were


the


black-belt


counties.


Black


-belt


counties


gave


their


support


to a Republican


candidate


the


first


time


1964.


The


effects


race


and


Goldwater'


Southern


strategy


were


evident,


as black-belt


voters


were


the


most


prominent


segment


of Republican


support.


Nevertheless,


even


Goldwater


landslide


, Seagull


(1975)


was


able


to document


a small


positive


contribution


from


the


played


white-collar


a large


and


sector


prominent


The

role


white


the


-collar

1968 e


sector

election


the


black


-belt


voters


withdrew


their


support


to help


George


Wallace


carry


the


state.


The


persis


tence


the


white-collar


sector


in 1964


prominence


1968


are


strong


indications


the


stability


the


white-collar


vote


and


place


squarely


the


core


of Republican


support


Georgia.


Even


with


the


disruption


Goldwater


vote,


Georgia'


Republican


vote


was


one


most


stable


the


Deep


South


states


between


1944


1968.


The


black-belt


county


provided


a positive


contribution


the


GOP


only


once


during


this


period.


The


traditional


and


white-collar


sectors


contributed


positively


in each


election


between


1948


and


1968


the


three


voting


sectors


were


inundated


thP


hnae


Ni Yon


win


1972








Louisiana


Louisiana


was


the


only


Deep


South


state


in which


black


belt


was


a positive


contributor


the


Republican


presidential


vote


during


1940s.


Republicanism


was


used


as an


instrument


of protest


against


the


national


Democratic


party


until


. While


1968,


black-belt


white-collar


support


sector


proved


increased


to be unstable


support


consistently


Even


with


large


black-belt


vote


1964


white-collar


contribution


was


positive


and


significant.


Black-belt


voters


left


Republicans


to support


Wallace


1968


The


prominence


importance


the


white-collar


vote


was


evident.


The


large


Nixon


win


1972


overwhelmed


contribution


black-belt


traditional


Republican


vote


, but


white-collar


vote


remained


positive


although


a smaller


contribution.


SS1SS1DDI


Mississippi'


Republican


support


was


entirely


dependent


on the


traditional


Republican


sector


prior


to 1952


. In


SS1SS


ippi


meant


urban


Republicans


Traditional


Republicans,


black-belt


voters,


white-collar


sector


were


strong


positive


contributors


the


GOP


vote


in the


1952


1956


elections.


an independent


Republicans


the


black-belt


slate


white-collar


contribution


of electors.


sector


was


The


remained


lost


traditional


stable








through


1960.


The


three


segments


displayed


unstable


patterns


of support


between


1960


1972.


The


traditional


GOP


vote


provided


a minuscule


contribution


1964


Republican


sweep


the


state


, and


the


white-collar


contribution


was


sharply


reduced


from


the


levels


the


1952


-1960


period.


Black-belt


support


was


highest


level


since


1952


Miss


issippi'


GOP


vote


was


truly


unstable


and


continued


to be


through


1972.


The


traditional


Republicans


the


white-collar


vote


again


played


the


1960.


a prominent


levels


The


role


played


traditional


the

vote


the


1968


elections


election


from


black-belt


, although


1952


not


through


counties


and


white-collar


sector


provided


negative


contributions


the


state


Republican


vote


1972


South


Carolina


South


Carolina


displayed


the


least


stability


the


Deep


South


states


in Republican


presidential


voting


prior


1960


Third-party


activity


explains


some


the


instability.


Seagull'


(1975)


computations


found


little


relationship


1952-1956


between


1952


the


South


electoral


Carolina


patterns


could


vote


1948-1952


and


the


Republican


candidate


on an independent


elector


slate.


Eisenhower


drew


a near-majority


vote.


Traditional


Republicans,


the


white-collar


sector,


and


the


black


belt


1 1









black-belt


support


was


a negative


contributor


enhower'


reelection


The


black-belt


counties


supported


independent


slate


of electors


Senator


Harry


Byrd.


Byrd


was


leader


of massive


resistance


integration


of school


who


drew


strong


support


from


rural


whites


(Bass


DeVries


1976)


traditional


GOP


voters


continued


to support


Republican


nominee


1956


white-collar


voters'


contribution


was


substantial


although


less


than


1952


Instability


Republican


vote


was


the


pattern


again


1960


Nixon


matched


proportion


vote


received


Eisenhower


1952


with


a high


level


of support


from


the


black


belt


The


white-collar


vote


was


very


strong,


but


the


traditional


Republican


contribution


was


a negative


influence


on the


statewide


vote.


The


black


belt


continued


to support


vote


Republicans


independent


in 1964


candidacy


, but


withdrew


of George


in 1968


Wallace.


The


high


level


of backing


from


white-collar


sector


continued


1964


1968,


indicating


a stable


Republican


core


of white-collar


supporters.


traditional


Republican


vote


was


a negative


contributor


each


election


from


1960


through


1972


Seagull


(1975)


found


evidence


of a stable


Republican


white-collar


vote


South


Carolina,


unlike


other


Deep


South


states,


of which


experienced


instability


nlnnS: I


Ckh


-1 1="








The


Rim


South


States


The


Rim


South'


political


distinctiveness


has


origins


geographical


demographical


factors.


Traditional


mountain


Republican


support


can


traced


elections


prior


to the


slave


issue,


the


Civil


War,


and


Reconstruction.


Low


black


population


outside


the


Deep


South


states


resulted


in a populace


ess


sus


ceptible


to racially


motivated


third-party


activity


The


Rim


South


has


larger


traditional


distributed


Republican


across


population


states.


which


The


is more


result


extensively


a more


stable


Republican


vote.


Arkansas


Arkansas'


electoral


behavior


most


like


the


Deep


South


than


any


the


other


Rim


South


states.


The


state


gave


George


Wallace


only


Rim


South


victory


1968


, and


Wallace'


vote


was


higher


than


South


Carolina,


a Deep


South


state.


elections


Outside


the


1960s,


of Winthrop


Arkansas


Rockefeller'


ected


two


a Republican


governor


a single


-year


term,


1980


-1982


Between


1962


and


1988,


Arkansas


did


elect


a Republican


senator


During


the


1980-1988


period,


Arkansas


Republicans


failed


run


a candidate


U.S.


Senate,


House


of Representatives,


and


Governor


more


frequently


than


Rim


South


state


except


Texas


put


a challenger


ess


often


than


ssiss


ippi








House,


and


Governor


have


won


20 percent


races


compared


a mean


38 percent


Rim


South


and


28 percent


Deep


South.


Arkansas


Republicans


have


held


the


least


number


of state


legis


lative


seats


Rim


South


state


less


than


Georgia


South


Carolina


Deep


South


(Scher


1992).


Lamis


(1984)


found


Arkansas


exhibited


more


traditional


Democratic


party


loyalty


than


other


Rim


South


state,


Ranney


scal


measuring


interparty


competition


within


states


computed


Bibby


al. (1990)


1970s


1980s


show


Arkansas


most


similar


the


Deep


South


states


The


traditional


Republican


vote


is small,


provided


stable


support


from


1944


1960


traditional


support


declined


sharply


1964,


increased


contribution


from


the


black


belt


kept


the


GOP


vote


43 percent,


equal


the


vote


1960


The


black-belt

previous c


contribution


contribution


was


in any


twice


as large


election.


The


1964


Arkansas


its

black


belt


remained


except


1968


loyal


and


to Democratic


contributed


presidential


Republican


candidates


vote


significant


Wallace


level


1968


only


, while


1964


Black-belt


white-collar


support


sector


stayed


went


with


the


Republican.


The


white-collar


sector


Arkansas


displayed


irregular


vote


Eisenhower's


pattern.


win


After


1952


contributing


1956,


the


substantially


white-collar


_


--ww








action


Goldwater


Little


Rock


candidacy.


1964


Significant


response


white


-collar


the


support


returned


to the


Republican


column


1968,


was


only


minimum


positive


influence


Nixon


win


1972


The


traditional


vote,


white-collar


sector,


and


black-belt


support


explain


little


large


Republican


vote


1972


Florida


Florida'


Republican


vote


was


very


stable


prior


1964.


Republican


presidential


candidates


received


a high


level


very


stable


support


from


a small


traditional


Republican


segment.


that


time


most


GOP


support


came


from


migrants


to south


Florida


(Lamis


1984).


The


white


-collar


sector


showed


signs


of attraction


GOP


as early


1948


, and


between


1952


1960


contributed


significant


support


to Republican


pres


idential


candidates


Perhaps


the


most surprise

Florida was


result

finding


of Seagull'


(1975)


of a substantial


analy


GOP


sis


vote


in the


black-belt


counties


from


1952


through


1960.


The


Goldwater


nomination


brought


great


instability


the


Republican


vote


1964.


Florida'


Republican


vote


was


the


most


unstable


the


Rim


South


1972


The


states


over


traditional


three


vote


elections


white


-collar


between


sector,


1964


and


and


the


black


-belt


counties


made


negative


contributions


the


- a -


1


I


A mR q


* JL


I ----








explain


vote,


appears


to be related


the


geographical


dispersion


of GOP


support


moved


from


being


disproportionately


concentrated


Southern


part


the


state


to being


disproportionately


concentrated


the


less

and


populous

population


counties

were po


of north


sitively


Florida.

correlated


Florida'


except


GOP

1964


vote

and


1972


The


traditional


support


white


-collar


sectors


contributed


substantially


Republican


vote


1968


Florida


and


Tennessee


were


only


two


Rim


South


states


where


the


black


belt


made


a positive


contribution


the


Republican


vote


in 1968.


Neverthel


ess


, Florida'


electoral


cleavages


in the


elections


1964


through


1972


were


more


similar


the


Deep


South


states


than


other


Rim


South


states


With


Nixon'


overwhelming


win


1972,


contributions


the


three


sectors


were


obliterated


the


SIX


presidential


elections


beginning


1952,


Florida


voters


gave


the


GOP


54 percent


vote.


Republican


support


increased


became


widely


dispersed


across


state


between


1952


1972


with


traditional


vote


and


the


white-collar


sector


contributing


at high


levels


except


1964


1972.








North


Carolina


North


Carolina


Tennessee


appear


to have


similar


and


stable


Republican


support.


Both


states


have


large


traditional


mountain


Republican


support


and


a high


degree


vote


correlation


between


contiguous


elections.


Neverthel


ess


, the


North


Carolina


support


came


from


different


and


changing


social


basi


North


Carolina'


traditional


Republican


support


declined


steadily


between


1944


1972


1972


contribution


GOP


vote


was


negative.


Tennessee'


traditional


vote


declined


only


slightly


and


remained


very


high


until


1972.


North


Carolina


Republicans


experienced


surge


of support


from


white


-collar


sector


beginning


1952


, and


that


support


remained


very


strong


until


1972


when


declined,


but


remained


positive.


Evidence


strength


white-collar


sector


the


Republican


vote


stability


the


vote


the


1960


, 1964,


1968


elections.


North


Carolina'


white


-collar


vote


remained


very


stable


unlike


most


Southern


stat


es.


Only


Texas


splayed


a more


stable


Republican


white


-collar


vote


over


three


elections.


North


Carolina'


black


belt


did


make


a pos


itive


contribution


the


GOP


presidential


vote


any


election


between


1944


1972


every


other


Southern


state


the


black


belt


was


a positive


contributor


in at


least


one









growth


the


white-collar


sector


decline


the


traditional


support


as a function


of intensity


of party


loyalty


and


level


of partisan


security


between


the


Republican


parties


of Tennessee


North


Carolina


Tennessee'


because


the


state.


Republicans


their


were


political


Tennessee'


much


more


strength


Democrats


secure


the


virtually


loyal


eastern


conceded


part


to the


GOP


the


two


eastern


congressional


seats,


while


North


Carolina'


live"


Democrats


attitude,


did


rather


take


they


same


campaigned


"live


North


Carolina'


traditional


Republican


areas,


thus


weakening


intensity


of party


loyalti


es.


Tennessee


The


high


level


voting


stability


Tennessee


can


traced


the


traditional


Republican


vote


the


thirty


-five


eastern co

correlated


unties


Republican


state.


vote


Tennessee


pattern


between


had a highly

each election


from


1944


1972


Prior


to 1952


, Republican


support


came


almost


entirely


from


traditional


Republican


counties.


The


traditional


support


contributor


remained


GOP


vote


stable


through


was


1968


a high


The


positive


stability


the


traditional


vote


played


large


role


Nixon


plurality


1968.


In 1972


traditional


Republicans


supported


he party


at a significant


level


, but


one








elections.


The


black-belt


and


white-collar


sectors


have


been


less


stable


and


contributed


in a varied


pattern


to GOP


presidential


candidates.


The


white-collar


sector


contributed


positively


1952


1956,


below


levels


the


Deep


South


states.


Since


1956


the


white-collar


vote


contribution


has


been


small,


positive.


Seagull


(1975)


suggests


the


large


traditional


Republican


vote


limits


emergence


a newer


cleavage.


The


black-belt


contribution


1952


was


greater


than


that


the


white-collar


sector,


but


was


much


ess


stable.


The


black


-belt


contribution


1956


was


barely


positive.


1960


and


1964


contribution


of black-belt


counties


was


positive


and


large.


1968


black


-belt


support


but


vanished,


returned


to a significant


positive


level


1972


Tennessee'


black


belt


was


very


unstable


contributor


to GOP


presidential


support.


The


traditional


vote,


white-collar


sector


and


the


black


belt


contributed


positively


the


Republican


vote


except


1944


1948.


Tennessee


was


the


only


Southern


state


which


three


sectors


made


positive


contributions


the


Republican


vote


1972


Texas


In Texas


movement


Republican


base


support


from


the


traditional


Republicans


white-collar


sector









steadily


and


dramatically


from


1948


through


1964,


returned


to a significant


level


1968,


but


declined


sharply


again


1972


1972


the


traditional


Republican


support


was


barely


positive.


During


same


period


the


white-collar


sector'


support


increased,


less precipitously


The


white-collar


vote


became


core


Texas


GOP


support.


In 1960,


1964


and


1968


the


white-collar


sector


in Texas


was


the


most


stable


contributor


Republican


vote


in all


the


Southern


states.


The


Texas


black


belt


been


relative


consistent


attitude


toward


GOP


presidential


candidates.


The


black-belt


counties


never


gave


the


Republicans


a substantial


positive


vote


contribution.


black


belt'


effect


on the


Republican


vote


was


negative


five


of eight


presidential


elections


from


1944


through


1972


Black


-belt


counties


made


a small


positive


contribution


only


1948,


1956


, and


1964


Lyndon


Johnson'


candidacies


1960


1964


no doubt


slowed


Republican


progress


, and


Texas


was


the


only


Southern


state


1972


was


remain


Democratic


smallest


1968.


Southern


Texas'


states


GOP


, and


vote


the


traditional


and


white-collar


sectors


played


a positive


small


role


the


Republican


landslide


win.









Viracinia


Seagull's


(1975)


analysis reveals only


a weak


explanation of the Republican vote


Virginia.


There was a


"blurring


and softening"


of former


bases of


cleavage,


but


low coefficients


from the


independent variables made


explanation difficult.


Seagull


attributes


the softening to


a rapidly


expanding population and enfranchisement and


suggested that distribution of


the vote across


the


Commonwealth


was so


similar that


the


low coefficients may


effective predictors


(1975)


Virginia's traditional


support declined


steadily


between


1944


1964


and contributed


insignificantly to


Goldwater vote.


The traditional


vote contribution was


positive


1968


, but became negative


in the


1972


election.


The black-belt sector supported GOP presidential


candidates


in a


"surge and decline"


pattern.


The black-belt


counties made small


but positive contributions


in the


elections of


1952


1964,


but were negative contributors


in each


other


election between


1944


1972.


The white-collar


sector


contributed significantly


elections


from


1948


1960


provided a negative


contribution


in 1964.


The white-collar vote


contribution


was small but positive


1968,


1972


was


negative


once again.









The


Republica

Southern


state-by-state


support


examination


indicate


electorate


white-collar


sector


the


substantial

presidential


succeeded


social


changes

level.


traditional


bases


the


The


Republicans


the


core


of GOP


support.


expansion


strength


the


white-collar


sector


is particularly


evident


the


three-way


race


1968.


A persistent


stable


white-collar


vote


present


despite


the


appeal


Wallace


candidacy


The


data


also


indicate


that


voting


cleavages


the


two


subregions


differ


more


than


slightly.


The


white-collar


sector


made


larger


gains


as a


proportion


Republican


vote


Deep


South


states


than


the


Rim


South.


white-collar


vote


in the


Deep


South,


except


Alabama,


made


a larger


contribution


Republican


vote


than


the


traditional


Republican


sector.


The


traditional


vote


in the


Rim


South


continued


to make


the


greatest


contribution


to Republican


support,


although


the


white-collar


vote


was


positive


significant


most


elections


between


1952


1968


The


three


sectors


explain


little


1972


vote


two


subregions.


There


is sufficient


evidence


to suggest


that


force


present


Goldwater


vote


1964


the


Nixon


Wallace


votes


1968


played


a prominent


role


the


1972


Republican


vote.


Seagull


(1975)


suggested


that


the









The


black


belt


remained


fluid


to 1972


, but


made


positive


presidential


contribution


election


to the


in every


Republican


Southern


vote


state


least


except


one


North


Carolina.


An expanding


white-collar


sector


became


a stable


core


of support


Republicans.


Traditional


Republican


support


continued


to play


a positive


role


the


Republican


vote.


1972


Republican


acceptance


the


presidential


level


was


an accomplished


fact.


The


Carter


nomination


1976


gave


Southerners


a second


opportunity


four


elections


to choose


between


acceptable


Democrat


and


a conservative


Republican


not


offensive


the


South.


Again


, Southerners


voted


the


Democrat.


1976


election


indicated


real


level


presidential


Republicanism


in the


South.


Even


with


Southerner


the


head


Democrat


ticket


and


the


race


issue


removed,


Southern


Republicans


remained


competitive


receiving


45 percent


vote.


In 1980,


with


a true


conservative


heading


Republican


slate


aided


with


the


ineffectiveness


the


Carter


admini


station,


Southerners


gave


a majority


votes


the


GOP


spite


of a Southern


candidate.


Republican


Southern


pre


vote


sidential


nominees


in presidential


received


elections


from


57 percent


1972


through


1984


The


GOP


won


deci


sively


or has been









nominee,


but


even


Carter


produced


no landslide


of support.


Black


and


Black


(1987)


found


Southern


Republican


support


comes


from


three


sources:


traditional


mountain


Republicans,


urban


Republicans,


and


interstate


Republicans


(1987)


The


first


two


were


discussed


earlier.


Urban


GOP


voters


and


traditional


Republicans


remain


key


to Republican


successes.


The


most


recent


Republican


support


comes


from


smaller


population


centers


traversed


the


interstate


highway


system


which


Black


Black


conclude


is an


indication


the


attractiveness


Republican


party


the


middle


class


beyond


metropolitan


areas


(1987)


The


acceptance


of Republicanism


the


presidential


level


was


completed


1972.


Even


though


Jimmy


Carter


won


the


South


1976,


native


Southerner


could


not


achieve


landslide


win


a majority


region

the w


and,


white


more

vote.


importantly


Pres


he failed


identical


Republicanism


was


established


most


dynamic


metropolitan


areas


South,


most


rapidly


growing


areas


, and


was


spreading


middle


classes


the


small


urban


areas.


The


GOP


captured


votes


of white


Southerners


the


since


Democratic


1968


party


in 1964


black vote

Black and


moved

Black


securely

conclude


into

the


Republican

elections


party


is the

South,


dominant


party


outside


in presidential


"stupendous


S a a


* I


11


(I~


1


* *


I I









the


Democratic


party


as noncompetitive,


nor


do they


view


the


Republican


party


as pervasive


and


stable


as the


Democrats


during


the


Roosevelt


years.


They


see


the


Democrats


winning


presidential


contests


only


under


unusual


circumstances


such


as an array


of short-term


forces


working


against


the


Republicans


(1987).


The


evenly


GOP


dominance


distributed


among


press


idential


Southern


states


elections


or voters.


Presidential


lines.


elections


Southern


divide


Republicans


along

have a


racial


ained


and


the


economic


support


white


middle-cl


ass


voters.


Carter'


reelection


bid


drew


approximately


one-third


Southern


whites


the


Democratic


column.


Southern


blacks


have


voted


solidly


Democratic


, with


GOP


press


idential


nominees


receiving


no more


than


a minuscule


share


the


Southern


black


vote


since


1964


The


black


vote


became


a potentially


significant


force


Southern


elections


with


passage


the


Voting


Rights


Act


1965


The


Deep


South


states


have


the


highest


black


populations


the


nation.


Since


1964


Southern


blacks


have


demonstrated


their


overwhelming


support


Democratic


presidential


candidates.


Neverthel


ess


, the


loss


almost


all

The


black

next


support


two


is not


chapters


will


only


review


flaw


Southern


Republican

voting be


growth.


havior


and


discuss


the


revelations


implications


future


- -


1~









Notes


1See


Strong


(1960)


Seagull


(1975).


2Harry Truman was not or
the states Thurmond won,
sumed the ballot position
rty. The "Dixicrats" had
ere the Republican nominee
comfortable margin.


the Alabama ballot. In each
he States' Rights Democrats
formally held by the Democratic
little appeal in the Rim South
actually outpolled Thurmond by


'A
50,000


metropolitan county
or more residents.


defined


as one


with


a city


4Frank Bryan, in Politics in the Rural States (Boulder,
CO: Westview Press, 1981), found SES provided a more
reliable explanation than urbanism for the GOP vote in
Mississippi.


5Nixon's vote was simiL
Republican nominee in 1960
Louisiana, states Eisenhowe
home state of the Democrati
and the large Catholic popu
helped carry the state for


Lar t(
failed
r won
c Vic
latio
John


o Eisenhower's,
d to carry Texa
in 1956. Texa
e-Presidential
n in southern L
Kennedy.


but
s an
s wa
cand
ouis


the
d
s the
idate,
iana


6John
special el
B. Johnson
actually r
Vice-Presi
received 4
Republican
century.


Tower received
section to fill
who was elected
an for reelecti
dent. His 196C
1 percent of tt
U.S. Senator f


50.6 percent of i
the U.S. Senate s
id Vice-President
[on to the Senate
)opponent was Joh
te vote. Tower be
trom the South in


the vote in
eat of Lynd
in 1960. J
as well as
n Tower, wh
came the fi
the twentie


a
on
ohnson
for
o
rst
th


7Se<
Strategy
(1971),


e E. M.
versus
pp. 155


Schreiber, "Where the
Fourth Party," Public
-167.


Ducks Are: Southern
Opinion Quarterly 35


8See
H. White,
Athenian,


CBS News Election
The Making of the
1973).


Day Survey
President


ited
(New


in Theodore
York:


manor


argument


there


has


been


realignment


basis
white-
cleava
-


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n the
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Southern Republic
lican vote in the
r. Seagull examine
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an
Sou
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tat


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th is
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es.


and the reli
in the
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Similarities


9Seagull'


able









variables


voter
respe
1940,
the p
white
Seagu
conve
count
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varia

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regre
most


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Cont
Coef
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tively,
the pro
oportio
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1 refer
ience,
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ration


ional
bles.
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corre
ssion


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he whit
by the
portion
n of th
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s to th
as the
Where
rates a


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traditional


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avail


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1 utilizes thr
lation of vote
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ar s
rtio
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oyed
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o in


Republi
ector.
n Repub
the pop


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fined
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. All
, data
eluded


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b
r


effects


e levels of
over time,
timate which


in accounting


"The state-by-state discus
s substantially on Seagull
iguous Pairs of Republican
ficients for Republican Pr'
included as an appendix to


cans, b
They a
lican f
ulation
tion wo
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o in 19
measure
on Negr
in the


the


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re measured,
or President
in 1960, and
rking in
.S. Census.
60, for
s are at the
o voting
analysis for


independent


analysis--strength
and a multiple
cleavages are the


Republican


sion
's ta
Vote
side
this


>f Republican
les, Correlat
by State and
tial Votes.
research.


vote


support
ions of
Regression
The tables


"S
contri
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Louisi
signif


eagull
buted
party
ana ba
icant


found
positive
and ind
llot in
support


Lou
ely
epe]
191
on:


isi
to
nde.
48,
ly


ana'
thi
nt e
195
in t


white-collar
-party movem'
action slates
1960, and 1!
black belt.


sect
ents.
were
968,


.or never
Although
on the
they drew


1Arkansas was the o
Democratic in the 1928
South states also voted
four Deep South states


,nly Rim South
presidential
Democratic.
in support of


state to
election.
Arkansas
Wallace


vote
The Deep
also joined
in 1968.












CHAPTER


THE


INSTITUTIONALIZATION


OF PARTY


COMPETITION


NONPRESIDENTIAL


POLITICS


The


preceding


chapters


traced


the


rise


the


Solid


South,


decline,


phenomenon


of Southern


presidential


Republicanism.


Chapter


describes


the


voting


behavior


of Southerners


at levels


below


the


Pres


idency


Thi


chapter


demonstrates


that


Republican


development


been


from


the


top


down.


While


being


succe


ssful


the


presidential


level,


the


GOP


had


much


less


success


the


congressional


state


level.


The


data


chapter


allow


the


examination


Southern


Republican


growth


at levels


of elective


offi


essential


to development


of a fully


competitive


two-party


tem.


More


importantly,


data


reveal


constraints


Republican


party


development


South.


Indicators


drawn


from


data


will


be developed


into


variable


which


will


measured


tested


a later


chapter


as to


their


influence


on the


success


or failure


of Southern


Republican


development


nine


pres


idential


elections


between


1956


and


1988


resulted


divided


government


Voters


chose









divide


the


Congress


and


the


Presidency


between


the


two


manor


political


parties.


Some


research


sees


thi


as an advantage


the


the


GOP


South.


and


beginning


A positive


two-party


indication


that


development


Southern


conservatives


have


been


comfortable


voting


Republi


can


presidential


nominees


since


1964


and


are


finding


easier


to support


GOP


candidates


at other


level


of electoral


offi


(Cavanaugh


and


Sundquist


1985)


The


South


has


played


an essential


role


election


of GOP


presidential


candidates


since


1968


when


Richard


Nixon


carried


five


Rim


South


states


and


South


Carolina.


Southern


presidential


Republicans


are


Southern


conservatives


who,


in time,


will


become


Republicans


cast


a partisan


vote


offi


ces


from


the


Presidency


down


(Bullock


1988;


Cavanaugh


and


Sundquist


1985)


optimistic


shared


students


view


of Republican


of Southern


voting


growth


behavior.


Kevin


. Phillips


(1982)


sees


the


nation


having


Republican


majority


at the


presidential


level,


a competitive


Senate,


a Democratic


House


of Representatives.


Thi


assumes


the


the


electoral


continuation

te, something


ticket


Phillips


call


-splitting


"split


behavior


-level


realignment"


. 94)


Other


reasonable


assumptions


are


that


the


South


the


Republicans


continue


agree


on national


and


ideologically


charged


issues


and


Democratic


Congress










While


voting


regularly


Republican


presidential


nominees


over


the


past


two


decades,


Southerners


have


been


ess


enthusiastic


about


GOP


candidates


other


offices.


U.S.


Senate


Elections


The


election


of Republicans


to the


U.S.


Senate


from


Southern


states


began


with


John


Tower


of Texas


1961


Tower


became


the


first


Southern


Republican


Senator


in the


twentieth


century.


Strom


Thurmond,


a converted


Democrat


from


South


Carolina,


was


reelected


1966


as a Republican.


Howard


Baker


of Tennessee


was


elected


to his


first


term


the


same


year


Southern


Republican


representation


Senate


grew


steadily


the


Southern


over


1962-1972


delegation


period,


1972


reaching


Tower


32 percent


Thurmond


, and


Baker


were


reelected


during


the


period


and


would


provide


a stable


base


a varying


proportion


of Southern


Republicans


in the


Senate.


Republican


success


in Senate


races


did


slow


entering


1970s.


Florida


had


elected


Edward


. Gurney


in 1968


Tennessee


chose


a second


Republican,


William


Brock,


1970.


Virginia


and


North


Carolina


followed


with


the


selection


of William


Scott


Jesse


Helms


, respectively


, in


1972.


Southern


Republicans


were


riding


crest


region'


dissatis


faction


with


the


National


Democratic


Party


over


civil


rights


issues


and


ths


nnmina i t n


SI


1 ihPral


nr i denti al


candidates.


Between









suffered


along


with


the


entire


party


across


electoral


levels


after


the


"Watergate


affair.


Gurney


surfaced


did


that


not


was


run


reelection


involved


helping


in 1974


friends


after


get


charges


housing


contracts


and


Brock


lost


1976


after


serving


a single


term.


Scott


chose


to seek


a second


term


1978


John


Warner


was


elected


, preserving


one


Republican


Senate


seat


Virginia.


to 1978


Republican


senators


from


the


South


were


elected


from


Rim


South


states,


except


Thurmond.


One


reason


Democratic


dominance


in the


Deep


South


was


the


high


proportion


of blacks


who


voted


Democratic


at high


level


Republicans'


best


opportunities


winning


were


when


black


and


white


Democrats


did


vote


as a coalition


and


GOP


was


running


an experienced


candidate.


Thad


Cochran


a U.S


. Representative


from


ssissippi


sneaked


into


the


Senate


1978


with


a 43 percent


plurality


a three-way


race.


Charles


Evers,


an independent


black


candidate,


split


the


remaining


vote


with


Democrat


Maurice


Danton.


Entering


the


1980s


, Republicans


held


ess


than


one-third

of the Re


the


publican


Southern Senate

victories were


seats.


won


Sixty

Tower,


-two


percent


Thurmond,


and


Baker,


who


served


through


1984


when


Baker


resigned


prepare


a run


the


Republican


presidential


nomination


and









Neverthel


ess,


1980


elections


would


bring


four


additional


Southern


Republicans


to the


Senate,


two


from


the


Deep


South


states.


Ronald


Reagan


swept


to victory


the


1980


presidential


election,


states.


carrying


Reagan


ten


helped


carry


eleven

a large


former

number


Confederate

of Republicans


into


office


further


down


the


ticket.


The


percentage


Southern


Senate


seats


held


Republicans


nearly


doubled,


going


from


to 45 percent.


. House


seats


rose


from


to 36 percent,


state


legi


slative


seats


increased


percent,


remained


at 16.6 percent.


Arkansas


elected


first


Republican


governor


since


1968,


Frank


White'


victory


over


Democrat


incumbent


Bill


Clinton


was


less


related


to Reagan'


popularity


than


to Clinton'


auto


license


Cuban


refugee


housing


at Fort


Chaffee.


Clinton


won


the


seat


back


next


election.


Reagan'


ideologically


charged


campaign


was


made


order


Southern


Republican


senatorial


candidates


empha


sizing


well-received


conservative


positions


on busing


abortion,


defense,


government


size,


and


economic


policy


(Cook


1981)


Republican


Senate


candidates


attempted


tie


their


own


campaigns


to that


of Reagan


and


were


largely


successful.


Republican


Senate


candidates


Mack


Mattingly


Georgia,









campaign


and


a national


tide


running


against


the


Democratic


party


(Lamis


1984,


chapter


County-level


correlations


between


Southern


Republican


Senate


challengers


and


the


Reagan


vote


range


from


Mattingly


Denton


. 252


The


four


conservative


Republicans


shared


other


political


characteristics


fate.


All


were


conservative


ideologues


who


lined


behind


the


Reagan


approach


governing;


2.2 percent;

experience;


were


all

and


had

all


elected


very

faced


small


limited

experien


margins


, and


or no previous

ced previous D


average


political


emocrati


officeholders.


None


would


serve


a second


term


All


four


seats


were


lost


to Democrats


1986


elections.


Three


the


four


were


defeated,


East


died


before


his


term


was


completed.


Table


indicates


success


Southern


Republicans


U.S.


Senate


elections.


Between


1966


1978


no Republican


held


a Senate


seat


from


a Deep


South


state


except


Thurmond


who


had


been


elected


first


as a Democrat,


then


as a write-in


candidate


, and


finally


as a Republican.


Republicanism


does


not


appear


be responsible


Republicans


Thurmond'


challenged


success.


Democratic


Rim


South


officeholders


more


frequently


than


Deep


South


Republicans


, and


Rim


South


Republicans


won


more


often


received


a higher


average


vote.


One


advantage


Border


South


Republicans


have


had


over












Table 4.1


Number


and Percentage of


Senatorial Seats


in the


South by


Party,


1966-1988


Year Democratic Republican


1966 19 (86) 3 (14)

1968 18 (82) 4 (18)

19708 16 (73) 5 (23)

1972 14 (64) 7 (32)

1974 15 (68) 6 (27)

1976a 16 (73) 5 (23)

1978 15 (68) 6 (27)

1980 11 (50) 10 (45)

1982 11 (50) 11 (50)

1984 12 (55) 10 (45)

1986 16 (73) 6 (27)

1988 15 (68) 7 (32)


Sources:
Scammon,
Affairs


1966-1970


ed.,


America


Institute,


from Norman J.


computed by author from Richard M


Votes


1966-1988)


Ornstein,


(Washington,


Figures f
Statistics


Vital


Governmental


1972-1988


taken


for Concress,


1989-1990


(Washington,


Congressional


Quarterly


, Inc.,


1990),


Note


: Figures


in parentheses are percentages of


seats


held.


* Harry Byrd,
"i fl^ ?c


Jr.,


elected as an independent


1970








the


Rim


South


between


1962


and


1978


has


given


Rim


South


Republicans


the


incumbent


advantage


in more


races


than


the


Deep


South


where


victories


incumbent


advantage


have


been


highly


limited.


Southern


Republicans


have


made


gains


the


Senate


level


second


only


to presidential


Republicanism


, but


have


held


one-half


the


Southern


seats


only


during


the


two-year


period


1982-1984.


Republicans


have


held


approximately


30 percent


Southern


Senate


seats


over


twenty


years


from


1970-1990


except


the


1980-1986


period


when


the


GOP


held


50 percent


the


seats.


After


the


1986


elections


Republicans


held


27 percent


the


Southern


seats,


the


same


proportion


SS1SS


held


ippi


1988


1974


brought


1978


Victories


Republican


total


Florida


and


seven,


or 32 percent


the


Southern


delegation.


When


viewed


terms


of pre-Watergate


years


, the


post-Watergate


period


, and


the

the


Reagan y

Southern


ears,


the


Senate


Southern


seats


GOP


during


held


the


first


and

two


26 percent

periods,


respectively


Republicans


held


40 percent


the


Southern


seats


during


Reagan


years.


the


later


part


the


1980s


they


held


ess


than


one-third


, a proportion


similar


the


number


held


1970s.


Table


summarizes


Republican


competitiveness


in U.S


. Senate


elections


The


GOP


has


made


gains


U.S


. Senate


level,


but


has


aone


through


a roller-coaster-tvne


electoral


experience


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