Citation
The effect of new marriages among the aged upon the disengagement process

Material Information

Title:
The effect of new marriages among the aged upon the disengagement process
Creator:
Snyder, Paul Wayne, 1932-
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
xi, 139 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Children ( jstor )
Elders ( jstor )
Ions ( jstor )
Marriage ( jstor )
Older adults ( jstor )
Remarriage ( jstor )
Siblings ( jstor )
Single status ( jstor )
Spouses ( jstor )
Statistical significance ( jstor )
Domestic relations ( lcsh )
Marriage ( lcsh )
Old age ( lcsh )
Older people ( lcsh )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis--University of Florida.
Bibliography:
Bibliography: leaves 131-137.
General Note:
Manuscript copy.
General Note:
Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
By Paul Wyane Snyder.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
Copyright [name of dissertation author]. Permission granted to the University of Florida to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
Resource Identifier:
000549725 ( ALEPH )
ACX4022 ( NOTIS )
13285702 ( OCLC )

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:


Full Text









The Effect of New Marriages Among the Aged
Upon the Disengagement Process


PAUL WAYNE SNYDER


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE COUNCIL OF
THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEGREE











ACKNOWLEDGMENTS


Tasks are made possible


and worthwhile by purposeful cooperation.


In appreciation of their keen dedication, valuable instruction


constructive crit


cisms,


would


ike, at this time, to record the in-


tellectual debt


First,


owe to several people.


would especially like to express unending gratitude


to Dr. Irving L. Webber of the Department of Sociology of the University

of Florida, for without his extensive knowledge of and vast experience


in gerontology, outstanding courage, and wise counsel


would not now


be entering the realm of scholar


wish a


to gratefully pay tribute to Drs. Felix M. Berardo


and Joseph


Vandiver


, both of the Department of Sociology of the


University of Florida; the former for his professional expertise on


marriage, his


exce


lent guidance, and his depth of understanding; and


the 1


matter for his long-term help and enduring patience.


want to expre


my appreciation to Dr. Harold R. Hunter, of


the Department of


Soci


ology of the University of Florida, for his


assistance and to Dr. James R. Anderson, a member of the Department


of Geography at the University of Florida, for h


Lastly,


Gorman


kind consideration.


would like to thank Drs. Ruth Albrecht and Benjamin


, both of the University of Florida's Sociology Department, for


their very helpful


suggestions.


I I.- I. I i I r .. -t 0














TABLE OF CONTENTS


Pajje


TA BLES ... ...... ..


LIST OF


ABSTPRACT .... ... ....... .............. .... ..... ..... .... ....

CHAPTER


INTRODUCTION. ..... .... ..... .
Nature and Purpose of the Study.
Theoretical Frame of Reference..
Past Research on Older Marriages


. ..a. .t t S S C t *.
..S ..9 .. ... ..4. .. ..* 5 5 .
*. a. .. ..a.. S t


METHODOL OGY....
Description of
Development of
Hypotheses.
\Working Hyp
Opera t ional
Instrument


the Sample. ... ..... ... .
Subhypotheses and Working


otheses and Corollaries..
ization of Disengagsement.
Schedules.. ..... ... .


* S S 4 S S C t S S
* a S P 5 0 0 5


* a P C 4 0 5 4
* a a a U S S S S S
* 9 0 t S S S P a
* P a a t a a a S S S


Analysis of the Marriage Record Data.... .... .....

F I ND I NGS.. .. .. .. ....... .. ... .. .......

Characteristics of the Research Sam.ples............
Testing of the Central Hypothesis.... ... .. .. .. .
Testing of the Subhypotheses.... ......... .. ..... ..
Testing of the Working Hypotheses and
Coroi laries. .......................


FOUr


D I SCUSS ION.. .. .. .. .. .. .. a. .
Age Differential Between the Groups.........
Number of Others in Household .............
Results of a Life Satisfaction Index.......
Tabulations of Responses to Marriage Items..
Nature of Responses to the Marriage Queries.
Significance of This Study on Disengagement
Theory ... .......... ......... .......


S a P 4
* S 5 94 S




. 5 9 a a:
.......

.......


FIVE


PROPOSALS FOR FUTURE STUD I ES OF AGEDNESS
AI D AG:D MAR,. AGES. ....... ... ... ...... ..
r a,, -


TIIREE


A C SN O\!LED Gil EN TS .












TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)


Page


APPEND ICES


I iNTERV I EW SCHEDULE. .. ... ...


QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF A LIFE SATISFACTION


INDEX: A METHODOLOGICAL NOTE.. ... ...... ....

REFERENCES .. ... ....... .... .... ,. ... .. ... ,

BI O. RAPHICAL SKETCH .... .. .. .......... .. ..... .. .... .. ....














LIST OF TABLES


Table


Page


P~rcetNc


or All


11ra r iayes


in Which the Groom, Bride,


or BothWere 65 Years Old or Older, 1949- 1959........

Percentage of All Marriages in Which the Bride or


Groom We re


Years Old or Older, 1951-1967..........


The Number of All Marriages and the Number and
Percentage of Marriages with at Least One of the
Partners over o60 Recorded in Alachua County,
Florida, 966- 1969, Inclusive. ...............


4. Distribution by


of the Partners in Marriages


w th at Least One of the Partners over


Recorded in A1achua County, Florida, 1966-1969,
I nclus ive. ..... .......... .. ... .. a ...... .........


5. Harri~ges in Which at Least


One of the


Pa rtr~ers


Was Over
Be tteean


60 According to


Difference


Bride and Groom, Performed in Alachua


County, Florida, 1966-1969, Inclusive...... ..........

6. Differences in Ages of the Married Pair in the


Cases


Where the Brides Were Older Than the Grooms


in i-arriages in Which at Least One of the Partners


Was over


60, Performed in Alachua County,


Florida, 1966-1969, Inclusive...................

The Educational Levels of the Experimental and


Comp r ison


groups. .... ......... .a .... ........


The Primary Lifetime Occupations of the Expert-


mental and Comparison Groups......


The Present Employment Statuses of the Experi-
mental and Comparison Groups..................


09


r












LIST OF TABLES (continued)


Table

12.


Page


The Total Role Counts of the Experimental and


Compar;- son Grou!os


(Percentages) .... .. .. ... .. ...


The Total Perceived Lifespace


Scores


of the Experi--


rientn 1


and Conparison Groups (Percentages).........


The Lifespace 'i.easure f


Scores


of the Married and


Unmarried Subjects in the Comparison Groups
(Percentages) ...... ... .. .. .

The Total Role Counts of the Married and Unmarried
Subjects in the Comparison Group (Percentages).......


Total Perceived Lifespace


Scores


of the Harried


and Unmarried Subjects in the Comrparison Group
(Percentages) . ... .... .. .. ...


The Lifespace MTaasure f


Scores


of the Male and


Female Subjects in the Experimental Group
(Percentages) .. ... ....... .

The Total Role Counts of the Male and Female


Subjects


in the Experin'ental Group (Percentages).....


The Total Perceived Lifespace


Scares


oaf the


Male end


Female


Su~bj acts i


the Experimental


Group (Percentages)......... .. a....................'.


20. Number of Living Children in the Experimental
and Comparison Groups (Percentages) ...................


Total Lifespace ;Measure f


Score


by Number of


L i ving Children for the Exper ixmental and Compari -
son Groups (Percentages) ... .. ... ....


Total Role Count by Number of Living Children for
the Experimental and Ccrmparison Groups (Percentages)..


Total Perceived Li espiace


Score


by Number of


Living Children for the Experimental and Comparison
f_ r* lltn n lc rr-s^ni r n^-'-t-r-













LIST OF


TABLES


(cont inucd)


Table


Page


Total Lifespace


I;rsU-e


Living Siblings for


son Groups


Co rbbi ;ed


Score


by Number of


the Experimental and Compar i-
(Percentages)... ..... .. ... .. ....


lTh Total Role Count by the Number of Living
Siblings for Both the Experimental and Comparison


Groups


Combined


(Percentages) ....... .. ... .


The Total Perceived Lifespace


Score


by the Number


of Living Siblings for Both the Experimental and
Comparison Groups Combined (Percentages)..............


Total Lifespace Measure f


Residence


Score


by Rural and Urban


for Both the Experimental and Comparison


Groups Combined


(Percentages). . .


The Total Role Count by Rural and Urban Residence


for Both the Experimental


and Comparison Groups


Combined (Percentages) .. . .


Total Perceived Lifespace


Score


by Rural and Urban


Residence for the Experimental and Comparison Groups
Combined (Percentages)... .. .. .....


Total Lifespace Measure f


Score


by Age of Spouse for


Both the Experimental and Comparison Groups Combined-
(Percentages)... .... .. ..... ... ... .........


Total Role Count by


of Spouse for the Experimental


and Comparison Groups Separately and Combined
(Percentages) ................ .....


The Total Perceived Lifespace


Score


Spouse


for Both the Experimental and Comparison Groups
Combined (Percentages)...... ..... ......


The Lifespace lMeasure f


Score


by Race for All Subjects


Thk. Tnt-nail DPlo Cfninra c h'FAl\


(Pe rcen tages)


Fn r










LIST OF TABLES (continued)


Table


Page


The Perceived Lifespace
(Percentages) ... .


Score


for All Subjects


Ages


of the Respondents for the Experimenta


and Comparison


Nh8 *!:


Groups (Percentages) .


of Others in the Household for the


Experimental and Comparison Groups (Percentages)....

Mood Tone Subtotal of the LSIA for the Experimental


and Compari son Groups (Percentages)


.... .. .. 85


Zest


for Li


Subtotal of the LSIA for the Expert-


mental and Comparison


Groups


(Percentages) .


41. Congruence Subtotal of the LSIA for the Experi-
mental and Comparison Groups (Percentages)..........


42. Fortitude Subtotal


of the LSIA For the Experimental


and Comparison Groups (Percentage ). ........

43. Self-Concept Subtotal of the LSIA for the Experi-
mental and Comparison Groups (Percentages)..........


Total LSIA


Score


for the Experimental and Compari-


son Groups (Percentages) .. ... . .


The Length of Time the Cooperating Newlyweds Knew


Each Other


Before


They Married (Number and


Percentage).. .... .. .. ... ... .. .. .. .. ...










Abstract of Dissertation


P re 3;n ted


to the


Graduate Council of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfi.llment


of the Requirements for the


Degree


of Doctor of Philosophy


THE EFFECT OF NEW MARRIAGES AMONG THE


AGED UPON THE DI


SEijAGEMENT PROCESS


Paul Snyder

August, 1971


Chai rman:


Dr. Irving Webber


Maj o r Departnen t:


Sociology


This study dealt with the impact of marriage among older persons


upon the disengagement process .


Disengagement theory pos its successful


aging as a process of gradual social and psychological withdrawal with


assoc


iated personal i ty


changes.


The experirint.al population


was com pri sed of persons 60 years of


or over


we r e


wed in Alachua County, Florida, nd whose marriages


w re


1( --


than five years'


duration.


These subjects resided in a


nine-county region i n orith-centra r iorida.


comparative sample of


ol der


icr~ SulS


was selected from the


reg ion


without reaard to their


marital status.


The experimental


samp


consisted of 71 subjects and


the comparison group nurb red 60.

Most of the datawereobtained in the homes of the respondents by


means of an intervi ea schedule administered by the in vestigator.


schedule incorporated,


three


measures of societal engagement:


life-


space measure f score,


a role count, and


a perceived li space score.










background characteristics, and a


the respondents' marital


series


expert enc3s.


of open-ended i teams concerning


Data also were obtained from the


marriage-license applications regarding the experimental population.

The central hypothesis argued that marriages contracted late in


life


serve


to retard the disengagement


process.


Two subhypotheses were


formulated:


female subjects in the experimental group will be


less disengaged than the males in that group


married subjects in


the comparison group will be less disengaged than unmarried subjects

in that group.


working hypotheses and five corollaries


to test the


constructed


influence of number of children, number of sib ings, rural-


urban residc!ence,


spouse,


race.


The corollaries seated that


if statistically significant differences were found for any of the

five variables, the relationship would be more pronounced in the experi-

mental than in the comparison group.


While none of the hypotheses


7i~31: ~


was substantiated on all three


of engagement at an acceptable level of confidence, the data


did lend


scnie


support to the hypotheses dealing with the influence of


being newlywed, being married, having nore children, having more sib-


liings,


I-'-.


g a young


spouse,


and living in a city on delaying the


disengage:ai.nt process.


Likewise the corollaries failed to find support


on al


three


measu res


at an appropriate confidence level.


Neverthe-


less, two of the corollaries, concerned with the relationship of number


of siblings and age of


spouse


to disengagement, received


some


support.


e










of the corollaries, concerned with the number of children,

out in the direction opposite from that predicted.


was borne


The findings of this


study


appear


to underscore the necessity


for continued refinement of the theory of disengagement.


Successful


aging remains a rather elusive


concept


and neither activity nor dis-


engagement should be considered the


sole indicator of it.


measuress of


the aging process such


as the life-satisfaction index may need to be


revised and subjected to further testing on diverse populations.


Future research dealing with the influence of


older marriages


on disengagemerit would profit from use of the longitudinal


deijgn.


Con-


prison of similarities and differences between marriages contracted at


younger and older


ag-s


could extend our knowledge in the fields of both


social gerontology and sociology of the family.








*u












CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCT I ON



Nature and Purpose of the Study


In this country, and some others, both the number and the propor-


tion of older people in the population have been rising.


"This increase


is due to a variety of factors.


tat ion


Such things


"miracle" drugs, better diets, new surg


spread health programs


keeping more peop


and higher leave


improvements In sani-


techniques, wide-


of living have succeeded in


alive all along the age continuum.


When such develop-


ments are coupled with a reduction in the birth rate and low leve


immigration


, the population begins to age.


With more people reaching


older


ages


and with fewer new members being admitted


into


a society,


the population pyramid begins to bulk large at the


higher


ages.


The results of these trends are reflected in the following data:

in 1940, persons aged 65 and over in the United States numbered

9,019,314 and comprised 6.7 percent of the population; in 1970, the

corresponding figures were 20,049,592 persons and 9.87 percent of the


population (U.


Bureau of the Census, 1970:4).


This dramatic demographic change has generated a high degree of


interdisciplinary interest


n the relatively new field of


Soci


gerontology.











A review of the


existing literature reveals that most of the


research on the problems of the aged has dealt with death, bereave-


ment, health, widowhood, physical infirmi t ies


, nursing homes


adjust-


ment to retirement, and other problems typically encountered by very


old persons.


It is clear that the ordinary or expected phenomena


concerning our senior citizens have received increased attention from


soc la


scientists.


With the greater part of the research being focused on decre-


rents in health,


oss


of roles,


et cetera,


little attention has been


given to the resumption of old roles or the assumption of new roles,


especially those implied by new marriages and remarriages.


exists


This


despite the fact that new marriages among the aged,


as will be subsequently shown


, are relatively common and important


This dissertation will focus on elderly newlyweds and the effect


that new


marriages


contracted by aged persons have upon the disengage-


ne n t


process.


T heo reti


Frame of Reference


Cumming, Dean, Howell, and NcCaffrey formulated the theoretical

framework describing the disengagement process (1960:14-23).


This process is most often thought of


as a mutual withdrawal


which


takes


ace


between aging persons and others in the social


system.


several I


dimensions of the process, along with illustrations, will


1,0 n roe on ii r t-.r,. na~ I- el, ~r.4 at- r-n 4- I-.,,. r a nr r..~r 4-c ~ rn nnn r:~ 4-7 ann 1 : ~












mutual withdrawal, resulting in reduced interaction between the aging


person and others in the social


system.


An old person becomes less involved in the life around him than


when he


was


younger, and his withdrawal may be accompanied by an in-


creased preoccupation with self.


The p


process


seen


as function


for soci


Therefore


is a society


expectation, and


reciprocity is implicit in it.


Indeed,


the social order must have


some


means


that pave the way or make it


easy


for the elderly to move toward eventual disengagement, and the older


person is expected voluntarily to


cooperate


in the process.


When the process is complete, the equilibrium which existed at


middle age between the individual


and society has given way to a new


equilibrium characterized by


a much


greater


distance between the aged


individual and his society.


Three orders of change should be distinguishable


e in disengage-


ment.


First,


there


should be an observable reduction in the absolute


number of people with whom the aged person interacts.


Second, there


should be


a qualitative change


even


in the interaction that remains,


especially in terms of time and purpose.


changes.


The type of activities actually


The aged person reduces activities that involve the outside


world and takes on activities that


are more


inner-d i reacted.


He gives


up activities that call for interaction with others and adds those


, it













activities that center on self (Cumming and Henry, 19(1:8-9 and 38-45).


Lastly,


we should


see some


patterns of personality altering to


accom-


modate this increased involvement with self.


The last is


seen


tsa


circular procedure that both


changes.


causes


The older person is conceived


is the result of the first two

as being at the center of a


network of social interactions and,


as he


ages,


his social life con-


stricts and he experiences a curtailment of involvement in the social


system.


Disengagement is viewed


as a process which is beneficial to


both the individual and


society.


There were three basic points in the original work by Cumming


and associates.


They stated that the process of withdrawal is modal


for the aged, that disengagement is both intrinsic and inevitable, and


that undergoing the p


process


is a condition of successful aging.


(jeniys, in a later work, redefined the disengagement process

as not necessarily inevitable but still maintained that the equilibrium

that existed in middle life between the individual and society gives

way gradually to a new equilibrium characterized by greater distance


(196


-S-SI'


-393).


Williams and Wirths (1965:3) agreed that the process is intrinsic


to aging but probably not inevitable.


best defined


They stated that disengagement is


as a process of mutual severing of ties between the indi-


vidual and the social milieu in which he li


ves.


process


involves




5





a universal, though it may vary in degree of graduality from one culture

to another and it may not be inevitable for all people in each society.

Two research projects (Thompson and Streib, 1961:200; and Maddox,


1965:117-130) even questioned that


o i sengagem'ent


was


a mark of


success-


ful aging.


Maddox concluded that disengagement,


as a correlate of aging,


found much more frequently in the very advanced age levels--a time


when physical and mental decline i's most likely.


Thompson and Streib


also found that disengagement worked only for "very old"'


categories s;


by "very old" they meant 80


years


old or older.


Two articles (Kapnick, Goodman


, and Cornwell, 1968:305-310; and


Glenn and Grimes, 1968:563-575) clearly demonstrated that not all social


involvement decreases with


age.


The authors proved that political


interests and activities in


crease


wi th


aye.


Videbeck and Knox (


965:37-48)


challenged the modality of dis-


engageene~


In a longitudinal study,


a part of which


measu red


involvement level of the subjects, they found that 90 percent,of the


over-65 nonparticipants


were


also nonparticipants five


years


earlier


and 90 percent of the 65-year-old group and older who


we re


participants


were classified


as participants five


years


earlier.


The participation


variables employed were church and club activities, public meetings

attended, time spent -reading, and political activity. This finding


seems


to indicate that a person's adjustment in the latter part of


his life-cycle will merely reflect


a continuance of


a life style


was













Although the evidence presented


above


'JI.t-2


appear


to throw


doubt


on some


of the basic tenets of the disengagement theory, there


does


seem


to be general


agreement


that the process, at least,


does


exist.


Most


social


scientists


are even


will i n


to grant the mutual it


or disen


ment


Certainly, given


a general


lied


natural reduction in


energy


levels,


aged individuals should make willing accomplices in the


process


of their


separate ion from


society


i nvo 1 vemen t.


Even the opponents


cI dsna


ment theory accept the direction of the


sociocu


tural


forces


which


generally against


a high leave


of participation in


society


by the


elderly


Hence, an intellectual challenge


is clearly


present


to empirically


define this mutual withdrawal,


means


ure to what


extent it


is occurring,


and outline situations (other than increased aging) that


ei ther


speed


up or retard the process.

Havighurst (1961:8-13) posited the disengagement theory against


the activity theory


The activity theory


developed through the


years


by Cavan (1949:71-83)


Beard (1949:274-279), Albrecht (1951:380-386)


Ph ili ps (1 931:215-2


Burgess (1960:271-298), and Will


laes,


et. al. (1963:261)


hypothesized that a high level of activity and social involvement is


more


desirable adaptation for aged people to make in


sac iety,


Hav ghurst stated that the activity theory is favored by the symbolic

interactionists and social practitioners who suggest that people should


-,C~


are











so doing become the passive victims of society.


On the other hand, the


disengagement theory is favored by functionalist theoreticians who view


it as constructive and

addiLion, they see the


necesso ry


aged


for the continuity of society.


as cooperative actors in the process.


Therefore, the disengagement theorists maintain that dis


engage-


ment reflects successful aging, while the activity theorists claim that

activity represents successful aging.


From the above arguments,


it looks


if the two positions are


indeed quite irreconcilable.


But,


as a matter of fact, they are


exactly


reciprocal.


The results of


one are conceived in the degree of social


activity and the consequences of the other are conceived in the degree

of social isolation.


In real ity


, then, a test of one of the theories automatically


becomes


a test of the other.


This study will do both, although, for


methodological reasons only, the effect of the new unions wLi


stated


as being measured against disengagement.


Past Research on Older Marriaqes


A thorough search revealed that few research projects have


been undertaken with aged newlyweds


ever


the subject of investigation.


One study (Bernard, 1956:50-66) examined remarriage in all


age groups,


hence was not primarily focused on new marriages among the aged;


however, statistics were gathered for advanced


age groups which should












That the proportion of all marriages that


are remarriages


Increases


wi th


because


the proportion of persons


who have


been


previously married


increases


with


age.


That most


the previous marriages in the young to early-


middle-age groupings ended in divorce while the majority

of those in the late-middle to old-age groupings ended in

death.


That approximately one-third of the women


remarry marry younger men while only about


over


percent


the men over 6


who remarry do


An important work done in the


area


so with older

is reported in


women.

a University of


Connecticut monograph (McKain:1969).


However


, the major thrust of that


investigation


was


to ascertain the marital adjustment of older peop


were


marrying again in their later


years


and to develop a


scale


to measure the


success


potential of


a retirement


remarriage.


The McKain study consisted of


a samp


of 100 couples,-; with no


control group.


He included only those unions in which both partners


had been married previously.


Only brides who were 60


years


old or


ove r


and grooms who


were


at least


years


of age at the time of the


wedding


were


considered for


section in the study.


Both the Bernard and McKain studies had their basis in the


testing of theory in the field of marriage and the family and they


were


nfl rn T; lx. cr n n rhar r; ~n Iei h, rn r-cr t~InciA td-~~~ +kr nnr ki mm f mt it:n nf tkc r











no research to date with aged newlyweds


in a


as subjects and based


gerontological frame of reference.


It is true, however, that in the McKain study (1969:101) the

effect of the remarriages on the process of disengagement was inci-


dentally tested.


The data


seemed


to indicate that marriages in the


later years counter the disengagement process in familial relationships,


but the reduction of other roles in society continues.


However, the


results were inconclusive.

Both the Bernard and McKain studies excluded aged subjects who


were marrying for the first time.


It is true that never-married sub-


jects would have no relevance in studies seeking to describe the


keys


to successful remarriage.


However


, even aged bachelors and spinsters


becoming newlyweds have to


cope


with disengagement,


so they will not


uded from the present investigate ion.


McKain (1969:1-13) strongly contended that there is a societal


ethic


against


elderly people marrying and that the children of the


elderly


are very much opposed to the remarriage of their parents.


However, the mimeographed data tables that his work was based on clearly

indicate that the majority of the children of both the brides and the

grooms encouraged the marriage of their parents (McKain's Retirement


Marriage Statistica


Tables, 1969:4-5).


Moreover, Bernard (1956:25)


suggested that throughout society

of remarriage in all aqe groups.


.y there exists an institutionalizing

One reason that more older people


exc


I











is greater that that of those of the past.


The advances in medicine


have


done


much more than create an increase In life


expectancy.


drugs and surgical techniques have brought about better health and im-


proved physical vigor


among


the older population in addition to extend-


ing their lTfe-span (Rose and Peterson,


965 :364;Youmans,


:201)


Hence, with a prolonged period of energy and potent


usefu


ness


, many old people in


a sense


are reverting to an earlier


stage


the life cycle and becoming newly


yweds.


The data in Table 1, accumu-


lated by the Administration on Aging, attest that new


marriages


con-


traced by older persons


are


uncommon.


(The source does not give


the absol


ute number of marriages.)


Table


Percentage of All Marriages in Which the Groom, Bride, or


Both Were 65


Years


Old or Old


, 1949-1959"


Percentage of All Marriages in Which


Year


the Groom, Bride, or Both
65 or Older


were


1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959











Table


also indicates that marriages among the elderly


were


the increase during the


years


shown.


Up-to-date data


were


sought to


ascertain whether or not this trend continued.


Exactly comparable data


were not available, but by using information contained in the Vital


Statistics of the United


States


(1960:1-31 and 1968:1-13), it


determined (Table 2) that the trend toward increasing incidence of


marraige among the elderly


over


time did not continue beyond 1960.


Table


Percentage of All Marriages in Which the Bride or Groom


Were 65 Y


ears


Old or Older,


951-1967'


Percentage of All Marriages in Which
Year the Bride or Groom were 65 Years
Old or Older

Bride Groom

1951 0.6 1.5
1952 0.6 1.6
1953 0.7 1.7
1954 0.7 1.8
1955 0.7 1.7
1956 0.7 1.8
1957 0.8 1.9
1958 0.8 2.0
1959 0.9 2.0
1960 0.9 2.0
. 1961 0.7 1.8
1962 0.8 2.1
1963 0.8 1.9
1964 0.8 1.9
1965 0.9 2.1
1966 0.8 1.8
1967 0.8 1.7


was


__ L


--












Table


shows


a tendency toward increase up until


1960, then


a plateau appears between 1960 and 1965


and it


seems


that an actual


decrease has occurred


since


965.


The U.


S. Vita


Statistics (1964:


I-18,


965:1-17, 1966o:1-14, and 1967:1-14) did give the absolute


number of aged marriages


for the latest four years for which data


available.


In 1964


, 10,831 women


ove r


65 got married and 24,920 men


over 65 got married


, for a total of 35,751.


In 1965


, the corresponding


figures were


1966, it


was


2,248 women and


12,430 women and


,328


men for a total of 39,576.


,115 men for a


total.


1967, it


wa s


12.401


women


and 26


,537


men for


a 38


,938


total.


Both the disengagement and activity theorists point out the

gradual role loss of older people in their continually contracting


social world.


Terms such


as role changes, loss of roles, role


role, rolelessness, and role shrinkage


of gerontological


are commonplace in reports


surveys.


The number of role


a person has is dependent upon the definable


positions, or statuses, that he occupies in society.

whether it is allowed that each status may have a mu


s is true


iltiplicity of


roles or whether it is given that all the usual ro


tasks


assi


gned


to a particular status


are considered


as one rol


Either position


can be meaningful


when trying to correlate role loss with disengage-


ment.


A man who was


a father at age 30 wi ll not lose that status


-J -. --


are


ess












But in this study, such discrimination will not be


necessary,


for ;.n aged person who gets married


assumes


a new status, that of


spouse, and, thereby, by definition


assumes


a new and additional


role (or roles)


aSSI


gned to that


status.


This role gain, then,


theoretically might tend to hold off disengagement.


Moreover, an individual


world relevant to him,


life space


or the extent of the


associated with disengagement.


Back and Kenneth Gergen (in Simpson and lMcKinney


, 1966


Kurt


:289-293)


point. out that an individual who marries may effectively double his


life


space.


Al] his mate's relatives, friends, interests, possessions,


habits, and hobbies suddenly impinge upon his environment.


Therefore,


this interference in a formerly constricting life


space


should slow


down disen


gageaent.


Hence, the major hypothesis to


be tested in


this work is:

New marriages contracted by the elderly tend to have


a braKing effect on their disengagement from


society


Subhypotheses, working hypotheses, and corollaries will be


derived from this central hypothesis.


They


are presented in the


following chapter and


are based on the common demographic variables


such


as maritaT status,


sex,


race,


residence, number of siblings,


number of children, and age of spouse.

hypotheses will be described in detail


The method of testing these

in the subsequent chapter.













CHAPTER T!0O

METHODOLOGY


Description of the Sample


The experimental universe in this investigation is comprised

of those marriages in which either or both partners had attained the


age of 60 at the time of the wedding.


from viewing disengagement


defin i tion follows


as a process that some people begin earlier


than others.


Furthermore


, age


60 seemed more realistic than 65


because


so many people retire now on pension plans before reaching their


sixty-fifth birthday and many others under 65 are retired from active


work due to disabilities.


Moreover, a process, to be adequately


studied, should be examined in its


earl


as we 11


late phases.


The universe was further defined


as all


those marriages with old


persons

Florida.


as partners that were

A county setting was


recently contracted in Alachua County,

selected because the county is the


registration unit for marriage licenses.


However, it has added


advantages in that its clearly defined political boundaries, which


can be precisely located on


a map, enable the researcher to delimit


a specific geosocial area for experimental purposes.


The definition


I
Of course


this


argument could be carried to the extreme by


affirming, and correctly
that moment on a course i


that aging begins at conception and from


-3


charted toward the ultimate end of life




15





of a new marriage, for the purpose of this study, was one that has been


in existence for


aSS


than five years.


In addition, it


was decided


that the marriage should be at least si


some


months old to insure that


time for adjustment had intervened between the wedding ceremony


and the interview.


Since the interviewing took place during the


summer of 1970, the optimal choice was al


at the courthouse


those marriages recorded


in Alachua County, Florida, from 1966 to 1969,


inclusive, who had passed their sixtieth birthday at the time of the


marriage and were


giving in Alachua County or in counties that are


contiguous with Alachua County.


parsimony


This plan not only represented


as regards time, money, and effort, but it also should


yield the maximum usable results since this nine-county "ridge

section" of north-central Florida is relatively homogeneous in terms

of geography, economics, and culture.

This investigation did not include common-law marriages, even


though


some


of our aged citizens are cohabitating under such


ci rcum-


stances


(Wikler and Grey, 1968).


Wikler and Grey maintained that


prior to 1965 a widow who remarried lost all her


soci


security


benefits from her deceased husband and that was the salient reason


why many senior citizens did not legitimatize their unions.


These


authors reported that,mainly through their efforts, the federal law

was changed in 1965 and that now an elderly person can remarry with-

out losing any of the benefits from the covered employment of a











Since the data already presented in this study did


not show


an-increase in formally officiated marriage ceremonies


since


1965,


but instead indicated a slight


decrease


in the trend,


the researcher


checked the present Old


Age,


Survivors, and Disability Insurance


regulations.

According to the information contained in the Social Security


Claims Manual


(July


, 1970:410-420), the termination of widowhood can


result in financially adverse situations in the following


A widow under 60 who remarries


loses all of her


A widow under 60


cases:


a man of any


social security benefits.

, with dependent children in her


care, loses all her share of the OASDI grant upon


remarriage to a partner of any


age.


A beneficiary,


because


he or she was married at


least 20


years


a now deceased worker before


they were divorced,


loses all social security


benefits upon remarriage, regardless of age.


A widow who remarries between the


ages


of 60 and


62 has her
reduced by
man of any


social security check automatical
32 1/2 percent upon remarriage to


age.


A widow who remarries after a
OASDI check automatically cut


2 still has her
1/2 percent, bu


if she marries


a man


over


65, she becomes eligibi


for 50 percent of his award.


However, if 50


percent of her present husband's check is


than


percent of her deceased spouse


s check


or if she marries a nonrecipient of social security,


there will be


a net loss of income.


This does not take into account the possibly similar negative

circumstances that might take place under the many private pension


ess











funds, or labor union plans when a surviving beneficiary remarries.


It al


does not take into account the possibility of


a decedent's


will being worded


so that the surviving spouse is made the trustee


of the


estate


until remarriage with control then going to the


eldest


offspring.


Needless to


say,


there yet remains amp


e incentive for


many older people not to have their present unions officially known


which brings us to the main methodologica

common-law marriages from this study. Fi


reasons


for excluding


rst, since there


are no


records, there can be no accurate count, thereby making it impossible

to reduce the potential for sampling error, especially in terms of


representat i veness.


Secondly,


a field worker interviewing in


business suit and armed with


a clipboard and recording pen would


present a very clear threat to people living under this condition,


which would make effect


cooperation extremely doubtful.


Since the investigation is an experimental design aimed at


discerning differentials in the nature and rate of disengagement,


comparTson sample


was


used.


This


was accomplished by


cons


i during


the nearest neighbor


over


as a comparison-group subject.


experimental subjects


were


asked to


indicate the house


nearest


theirs which had someone 60


years


or older residing therein.


In those


cases


where such households contained two people over 60,


both were interviewed


as comparison subjects.


with elderly people living in them


were


If two or more homes


equidistant from the home of












north was selected, or if there


was none in that direction, the


nearest to the south


was chosen


, or if none there, then


west,


so on.


Development of Subhypotheses and Working Hypotheses


The main hypothesis predicted that the experimental group will

experience a lesser degree of disengagement than the comparison group.


Two subhypotheses were postulated from this.


Since the comparison


group


was


of peop


selected without regard to marital


are


state, it will consist


married, single, divorced, and widowed, and it is


very likely that many subj


ects


in that group will be unmarried.


And,


since the central assumption of this investigation is that newly


contracted marriages have


a negative catalytic effect on the disen-


gagement process, then it follows that married aged people in general

will be less disengaged than unmarried aged people.


Subhypothesis A:


Married subject
group will be 1


unmarried subj


s in the comparison


ess


ects


disengaged than
in that group.


Since the experimental group will be for the most part living


in intact marriages,


age-60 spouses of both


and, therefore, it is expected tha


sexes


many over-


will be in this group, another subhy-


pothesis can be formulated.


The most important crystallization point


of disengagement for men is retirement, whereas for women it is


widowhood (Cumming,


:378-389,


and Berardo,


970:11-25).











Remarriage for


a woman negates widowhood, while remarriage of an


elderly man has little or no effect on his retirement.


Subhypothesis B:


Female subject
group will be


subj


ects


s in the experiment


ess


disengaged than


n that group


Working Hypotheses and Corollaries


Each working hypothesis will be accompanied by a corollary.

The working hypothesis will be tested with data on the combined sub-

jects i.n both the experimental and comparison groups together and

the corollaries will be tested by noting the strength of relationship

in each. group when and if the variable being tested by the working


hypothesis produced a

Cumming et al.


gnificant difference over both groups. 3


(1960:25-32) postulated that disengagement


increases


as the


size


of life space lessen


and the amount of inter-


act ion


decreases.


Hence it can be deduced that


, in general, if an


aged person's family of orientation or family of procreation are

small, or, if there are fewer people in the immediate area of the


aged individual, then both his life space and potential


for inter-


action are diminished.


Working Hypothesis 1:


The larger the number of living


children an aged person has


, the less


effective


I be the d


engagement


process


3The reason al


the hypotheses


were


not merely numbered


is that


there is a fundamental difference between the central


hypothes


s, a sub-


--












Corollary:


If there is a significant difference
noted due to the number of living
children, the relationship will be
stronger in the experimental group
than in the comparison group.


Working Hypothes is


larger


the number of living


siblings an aged person has, the


less effective will


be the d


sengage-


ment


process.


Corollary:


If there


a significant difference


noted due to the number


Living


siblings, the relationship will be


strong


r in the experimental group


than in the comparison group


Aged citizens livi ng in sparsely populated


areas


should also


have smaller life


spaces


than


those


living in cities.


A dense popu-


lat ion,


n addition, should


mean


a greater concentration of activities


and organizations servicing the


aged


and Rose (1963:131) found that


urban elderly have a greater number of friends and acquaintances


than rura


elderly.


Working Hypothesis


The urban aged will be less dis-
engaged than the rural aged,4


Corollary:


If there is


a significant difference


noted due to rural or urban resi-
dence, the relationship will be
stronger in the experimental group
than in the comparison.


Since


years


some


age,


of the spouses


seems


n both groups will be under 60


reasonable to assume, at least hypothetically,


rip'-',


4Af


subjects who


DT 1 -4-,~~~Ar1 ar8


reside in the city limits of Ocala


_ era


Lake


... I


I a i ar A I r -~ r *'.e* -Ir ,r u-t-n


flnr rl?


!











that an older person married to such a younger mate might be in a


situation that would act toward the postponement of the


older spouse's


disengagement.5


Working Hypothesis 4:


Among the married subjects, those


whose
subj


mates are too young to


ects


will be less disengaged


than those subjects whose marriage
partners are also subjects.


Corollary:


If there is a significant difference


noted due to


age of spou


relationship will be stronger in the


exper


mental group than in the compari-


son group


Race may also be


a factor in the disengagement rate of senior


citizens.


Certainly, at


age 60, Negroes, in general,


are closer to


the end of their lives than Caucasians, due to a differential in


their life expectancy.


The a


average


number of yea


rs of life remaining


at age 60 for whites was 18.1 in 1956 compared with 16.5 for nonwhites


(Vita


Statistics of the United States, Mortality Tables,


966:4-5)


A differential of 1.6


years


may not


seem


great, but it is a


measurable and factual difference.

and important demographic variable


Moreover, race is both


hence, it would be wi


a common

to test


a racial hypothesis in order to determine


f this characteristic makes


a difference in degree of disengagement.


these marriage


study did not endeavor to focus on the sexual
es. Gerontologists know, of course, that sex


aspects of
quality goes


on as


long


life goes on (Wikler and Grey, 1968, and Rubin, 1970),


but the frequency, the problem of birth control techniques,


and many


. A- L. -


fl~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~r *!Sj urtFn cfr 1V COYAnrc


rvf mnnrtt


rl n~rCP1


'












Working Hypothesis


Blacks will be more disengaged than


whites.


Corol 1


ary:


If there


a significant difference


noted due to


race


, the relationship


will be


stronger in the


expe


rimental


group than in the


comparison


group.


This makes


a tota


of'


hypotheses to be tested in this work:


the major or theoretical hypot


is, two subhypotheses, five working


hypotheses, and five corollaries.


Operationaltzation of Disengagement


The single dependent variable in this treatise is the disen-


gagement process.


The most concrete terminology


seems


to be in con-


ceptualizing disengagement


as social


isolation


vis-a-vi s


activity.


Cumming


et al .(1960:33) maintained that the concomitant


ements of disengagement


are


ess


involvement with work, family,


and clubs, but suggested that there may be more involvement in

recreation, especially at the early stages of disengagement.

One could argue that. in the early stages of disengagement,


there may be more involvement with fam


y, friends, and voluntary


associate


ions, because retired


ndividua


would have more free time


for such activities.

reduction of familial


Nevertheless, it seems

interaction begins even


more likely that the

before the elderly


individual stops working.


The involvement was more probably most


intense during hi


early-middle


when his children


were


living


soci













age when his married children


chi ldren..


were


The later interaction


presenting him with


processes


new grand-


more than likely involved


a gradua


and mutual wi thdrawal.


As regards


friends, Blau (1961:429-439) showed that the extent


of friendship participation


decreases


with


age.


Turning to voluntary associations, the membership of voluntary


associations, like the population of a society, would not like to


see


their ongoing work and activities disrupted.


A death of


someone


position of responsibility for such continuity would be upsetting to


system.


To avoid this, the individual should ready himself for


total disengagement and the group


expects


him to do


Hence, it is


more logical that a measure of disengagement would be an aged person's


giving up his club membership, and especially yielding any ro


have


he may


as an officer in the group.


Cummi ng, in


a later work with Henry (1963:15 and 51), reaffirmed


the earlier disengagement definition (Cumming et al., 1960:25-32) that

an aged person begins an absorption with self and becomes less and less


involved with


ife around him.


However, the authors concluded that,


since


an older person


sees


fewer people,


less


often, and for shorter time


periods, it is conceivable that


even


their recreational activities begin


to diminish.

Zborowski (1962:300-305) reported that participant recreational


a




24





Physically, of course, it is anticipated that old people will

naturally be limited in the types and amount of recreation pursued,


especially


as regards highly active dancing, athletic


etc.


However,


disengagement should result in a reduction of participation even in the


things they


can do, and, most especially,


games,


hobbies, and pastimes


that require that other people take part.


It can be argued that


since


disengagement is


a preparatory


process for death, it might


seemn


likely that the elderly would manifest


increased church attendan


readying themselves spiritually in order


to die in a state of religious

(1964:149-150) held that the v


grace.


ery


However, Neugarten and


old manifest reduced soca


Associates

interaction


in all


area s


of life.


They begin demonstrating an increased preoccupa-


tion with self and


a decreased time and


emotional


investment with others.


Cumming and Henry (1961:91) also concluded that religious interests


decrease in older


age.


Therefore, the present investigation


assuLimes


that, if an older person is remaining active in the totality.of religiosity
4
by still attending church regularly, teaching Sunday school or catechism

classes, or the like, then he is opposing disengagement.


Cumming et al. (1


590:25-35)


and Neugarten and Associates (1954:


149-150) found that older people are more carefree in their persona


actions and less evaluative of what other peop


think of their.-behavior.-


As a matter of fact, most older people


seem


to abstain from intense


interpersonal relationships.


This produces a nonnormative patterning











reduce the situations in which others exert normative control over him.


The result is


a more


self-centered and idiosyncratic style of living.


One operational


measure


of disengagement would be the degree


of withdrawal from the dimensions of social involvement and whether


the subject


percei ves


such noni nvol vement.


The elements of social


involvement that


were


examined in this study are:


1. Work,


Fam ily,


. Friends, 4. Clubs, 5. Church


6. Number


of others in household,


. Neighbors,


Interaction with specific people, 9. A role count


based on these dimensions, and 10. A perceived life


which asks the respondent


space


to compare his present level


measure


of social


involvement with relat


ives,


friends


, church,


ubs, and people in


general with his level of such acti


ies when he


was


forty-five


years


old.


Instrument Schedules


Two instruments of long standing in gerontology


, each pre-


viously validated in the field,


were


uti 1 ized.


One is the measurements


of engagement developed by Cumming and Henry and found in Appendix


of their book, Growing Old (1961:243-256).


exact


scales


used are


entitled:


"Lifespace


Measure," "Church and Voluntary Organization


Participation," "Role Count," and "Perceived Lifespace."


the "Life Satisfaction Index A" (L


and Tobin (Havighurst, 1961:312-3


The other is


A) developed by Neugarten, Havighurst,


15). The purpose of the latter tool is











does not mean that there is no connection between engagement and life


satisfaction.


need, in the accompanying tables of the McKain mono-


graph (1969:7-8) the majority of the


aged


newlyweds


scored


in the high-


est bracket


life satisfaction


But in another study of older people


in general


CMaddox,


964:121-122), it


was


shown that life satisfaction


does not change with


decreasing activity with


increasing age,


age.


even


At any rate


in subjects who demonstrate

, the determination of such


a relationship is outside the purview of th


study.


But if a signifi-


cant difference is noted on the variable disengagement


amor,


g the


subj


ects


and this is correlated with the results of the LSIA, then this


would act


as a test of the relationship.


instrument also contained additional items defining the in-


dependent variables and persona


background (see Appendix).


In addition,


seven


open-ended probes aimed at eliciting


some


information about their


marriage


were


asked of the newly married couples who indicated that


they would not mind answering them.


serve


The purpose of these items


was


as a guide for future research rather than test any of the hypoth-


eses.


same


schedule


was


administered to the respondents in both


the experimental and comparison groups.


In those


cases


where both


spouses


were over o0, the husband and wife


were


interviewed during the same visit,


but separately.


However, the


seven


queries on marriage were administered


together to couples who were willing to respond to them; if their re-












Analysis of the Marriage Record Data


A total of 97 marriages were


egitimized in the nine-county


area wherein either the bride or groom or both were 60 years of age or


over, during the time span indicated.


Some useful


information was


already on the marriage license applications.


These data include those


persons who could not later be located to be included in the experi-


mental


population.


Data were also found on both marital


partners


which included age, race, community of residence at the time of appli-


cation, previous marital


status, number of previous marriages, how the


last union ended, and if the marriage just previous was terminated by

divorce, when and where.

The number and percentage of those formalized unions are pre-


sented in Tabl


The figures from Alachua County, Florida, depicted


The Number of a]


Marri a


ges and the Number and Percentage of


Marri


ages


with


at Least One of the Partners over 60 Recorded


in Aiachua County, Florida,


1966-1969, Inclusive


Number Number and Percentage of Marriages with
Year of at Least One of the Partners over 60
__Marriages .Number Percentage

1966 901 25 2.8
1967 924 18 1.9
1968 1,114 30 2.7
1969 1,170 24 2.1
Total 4,109 97 2.4





28






in Table 3 confirm the evaluation that the incidence of aged marriages


seems to have reached


S orie


sort of erratic plateau and that the decrease


since 1966 suggested in Table


probably


was only a slight rill in


that plateau.


The analysis of the applications yielded


Soaifl


other interesting


characteristic


of the population.


First, 63 or 65 percent of the couples


were


white, and


4 or


35 percent of the coup


we re


black.


There


we r e


no interraci


marriages among these aged newlyweds.


Of the 194 partners in these weddings


180 or


percent had


been married before.


these, 70 percent had only one previous marriage;


18 percent had two marriages before this one;


marriages previously,


percent had three


1/2 percent were starting their fifth marriage


at this time; and 1/2 percent (1


case)


was entering his sixth marriage.


More surprising is that 7 percent (14 cases) of the population had


never


been


married before.


None of the never-married grooms was uniting


wi th an


of the never-married brides.


It would


seem


because of our definition that only one of the


mates need be over 60 that, perhaps,

be partners who had not yet attained


most of the never-marrieds would

age 60; but, In fact, 8 of the


14 never-married-before group


we re


years of age or older.


Logic might also lead us to suspect that the majority of the


^ .. .... ... ..... 1J L ? L ? J-- L .. .... ... r. r-_ 0 -r












the never-married-before groups who were under 60


years


were


grooms.

Reason might point us toward the assumption that Negroes, due

to their increased chance of being in a previous unrecorded common-law


marra ,;


would compose most of the officially never-married-before


group; however, Negroes accounted for only half of that group.


these


seven


Negroes, five were


over


60 and two were under 60, three


were


rooms and four


I'b1 c


brides.


No Negro grooms


were


under 60,


while two of the Negro brides


We -'e


over 60 in the never-married-before


group.


Of the 180 subjects who did have previous marriages, their


most recent unions were ended by death


19 times, by divorce 60 times,


and only one subject terminated his last marriage by annulment.


is not one of the 14 never-marrieds discussed in the foregoing


graphs because he had been married twice before.)


ment with Barnard (1956:50-66)


among


para-


This is in agree-


found that most previous marraiges


the older age groups ended in widowhood.


The surprisingly broad age

marriages can be noted in Table 4.


range of persons involved in these


The modal age bracket was


60-to-64-year-old group with the tota


distribution being


htly


skewed


toward the older


age groupings with 71


cases


falling in the


65 or older categories and


cases


being under the


of 60.


Tremendous variation existed in the relative


Saces


of those who
















Table


stribution by


of the Partners in Marriages


with


Least


One of the Partners over


60 Recorded


in Alachua County, Florida, 1966-1969,
Inclusive


Number of


Group


25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94

Sum












Table 5


Marriages in Which at Least On


of the Partners Was


over Ag
Performed


CCc


rding to Age


achua County


Differ


Florida


ence


Between


1966-1969,


Inclu


s ive


Age Diff. Number Age Diff. Number Age Diff. Number
in Years of Cases in Years of Cases in Years of Cases


the marriage contrasted sharply with the three couples whose age


differential


was 30


years


or more.


The youngest subject in the


roup


wa s


a 27-year-old fema


married to


a 65-


year-o


d male; this union also accounted for the widest


gap (38 years).


united to


A 29-year-old woman, the second youngest subject,


a 61-year-old man presented the second largest age dif-


ference (33 years)


Two 35-year-ol1d women married one 63- and


st. C .... ,.~~~ I A .-~~. Al 1 C -.- ,, --i-- r~t ~ *I a im n


91


one


,,


It,,,,,,,, r~











an 83-year-old man, took a 69-year-old wife.


Both of these pairs


were Negro.


When there


was an age difference


, It


was not always the groom


being older than the bri


8 of the 97 couples (roughly 20


percent)


as depicted in Table 6, the brides


were


older than the grooms.


McKain (1969:15) found that 15 percent of hi


brides


were


older than


their grooms.


In the


cases


of the 14- and 18-year spread, shown in


Table 6


Differences in A


of the Married Pair


n the


Cases


Where the Brides Were Older Than the Grooms


in Marriages


n Which at Least One of the Partners


Wias over Age 60, Performed in Alachua County,
Florida, 1966-1969, Inclusive


Years Number of
01der Cases__m____

1 2
2 3
3 2
4 2
5 3
6 1
7 1
8 2
14 1
18 1

Sum 18


Table 6, the former was a 47-year-old man married to a 61-year-old

woman and the latter was a 59-year-old man wedded to a 77-year-old





33





Unfortunately, the marriage license application forms in Florida


give only the locality of the bri


not any


and groom prior to the ceremony and


information on where the couple will be residing after the


marriage.
-J


The following lists were searched


n an effort to find the


current addresses of the subjects:


ty directories, ut


cities


billing lists, and telephone directories of the communities


n the


research area, the list of welfare clients of the Department of Social

Services for the counties involved, and the regional list of public

assistance recipients of the State of Florida Division of Family

Services.


The addresses of


some


of the subjects who lived farther away


were acquired by utilizing the telephone, dialing 1, then the area


code


, then 555-1212.


The information operator, upon request, always


supplied the street address where the telephone in that given party' s


name


was


located.


Many addresses were still not ascertained,


so a letter was


sent in care of the postmaster of each subject's last community of


residence with instructions to deliver it to that subject.


Each of


these letters had a return postcard enclosed in it requesting the


subject


to write down his present address and drop the card in a


mailbox.


If these cards


were


not returned, a personal visit was made


to every post office in the nine-county area to secure existing or












When this procedure failed to reveal the whereabouts of


all the


mining unknowns, inquiry


was made at various points such


as genera


stores and


service


stations in those towns in an attempt to get a


lead on those remaining


cases.


Information on the location of


some


subjects


was picked up in


each step


of the search.


In addition


some


postmasters and towns-


people were able to


say definitely that


some


of the subjects had moved


but for one reason or another had told no one where they had


gone.


Finally, a check


was made to


see


if any


of the subjects about


whom nothing was known


were


deceased.


This


was accomp


wished by inquiry


to the Bureau of Vital Statistics, Division of Health, in Jacksonvill

Florida.


Of the 97 legitimatized unions in the


area


and time span


indicated, the present whereabouts of the partners 60


years


old or


older is


as follows:


Number of


Cases


Ba lance


Tota
peop


number of marri


years


ages


invo


living


of age or older married


in Alachua County, Florida, during the
years 1966-1969, inclusive.


Subjects from communities


side the experiment


area


n Florida out-
who apparently


came to Alachua County for the wedding
and then returned to those communities
after the ceremony.

Subjects from states other than Florida
who apparently came to Alachua County for


re-












(continued)


Number of


Cases


Balance


Subjects from communi t ies inside the


experimental area who moved


Florida communities


to other


outside the nine-


county area after the wedding.


Subjec
inside
other


from Florida communities


the nine-county area who moved to


states


after the wedding ceremony.


Deceased subjects.


Subjects whose whereabouts remain
unknown despite exhaustive efforts.


Our experimental sample, therefore, consists of 77 subjects.


A tota


of 71 experimental subjects allowed the interviews to


be completed.


This represents a


92.2


percent response rate.


A tota


of 60


elderly neighbors were interviewed


representing a response rate of


95.2


as comparison subjects,


percent.


The investigation was carried out by personal interviews in

homes of the subjects. The field work was accomplished during the

months of June, July, and August, 1970.


Of the nine refusals, two


were


incomplete in terviews.


The re-


suits of these two were not tabulated with the 131 completed interviews.


One of the incomp


etes


resulted at the very end of the interview when


the subject suddenly reversed his desire to have the information re-

corded and demanded that the questionnaire be surrendered to him, he


immediately tore it up.


The interviewer outside later filled in a












questioning to continue that day or on any of the follow-up

ViSitS.


Generally speaking, however, the cooperation of the subjects


was very good


indeed.













CHAPTER THREE

FINDINGS


was stated in Chapter Two, 71 elderly newlyweds were chosen


the expe r imenn ta


samp


and 60 elderly persons


we re


selected


a comparison group.


All the subjects were interviewed in their own


homes and their responses to certain questions put to them are tabu-

lated and analyzed in this chapter.


Characteristics of the Research Samples


initia


is presented (Table 7).


y, the educational level of the subjects in both groups


This distribution demonstrates the range of


formal schooling among the respondents.


The data indicate


that the


experimental group had a higher percentage of subjects with no school-


ing, schooling to the fifth grade, and advanced educations, while


subj


ects


in the comparison group led in the classifications from a


sixth grade education to graduation from high school.


Information


was also collected on the primary lifetime occupa-


tlons of the subjects and these data are found in Table 8. The two

groups appear to be nearly evenly distributed on this variable, a]-


though the comparison group had more skilled craftsmen while the


expe rimenta


group had more lower level professionals.


The higher


prestige of the lower level professional


s is probably offset by the
















Table 7

The Educational Levels of the Experimental and Comparison Groups


Educat iona


Leve


Expe r i meant al


G


Group (N=71)
(Cum. %)


Comparison
roup (N=60)
(cune.


No Formal
Schooling


(8.5)


(5.0)


First Grade


Attended to Fifth
Grade Completed


29.6


(38.1)


21.7


(26.7)


Sixth Grade
Attended to
Eighth Grade
Completed


21.1


(59.2)


31.7


(58.',)


High School
Attended But Not


Completed


15.5


(74.7)


18.3


(76.7)


High School
Graduate


Some.


Tertiary


Ed ucation


15.4


(84.6)


(loo.0)


15.0


(91.7)


(100oo.0)


_ __ --- ---


_ -- ----









Table


The Primary Lifetime Occupations of the Experimental


and Comparison


Groups


Ex-peri mental


Primary Li fetime


Occupation


Group (tN=71)
) (Cum


Compari son
Group (N=60)
) (Cum. )


Housewi fe


30.0


(30.0)


Unskilled


Laborer


18.3


(46.5)


18.3


(48.3)


Service


Occupat ions


11.3


(57.8)


10.0


(58.3)


Semi skilled


\Worker


(62.0)


(61.6)


Clerica


Sales Categories


(69.0)


(66.6)


Si.le


Craftsman


(76.0)


18.3


(84.9)


Farm Owner or
Self-Employed


(84.5)


(91.6)


Lowe r


Profess ional


11.3


(95.8)


(96.5)


Upper
Professional


(100.0)


(99.9)


*Total cumulat i ve percentage


does


not equal 100.0 due to rounding.


Unskilled workers


= field and orchard workers, tenant farmers,


maids.


Service occupations


= restaurant and hotel employees, night watch-


men, railroad porters, military careerman, practical
nurses.


Semiskilled workers


factory


= gene


ral construction workers, truck drivers,


in;


~ssnnh~vI -


wnrker -


uuur


II '''"Y IIYI 1~Yl~t











ears


to be no great


socIoeconom


ic mrba


ance


between the two groups


which might introduce


a sampling b


las.


The data on the present


presented in Table 9.


employment statuses of both groups


are


There is little difference between the two


groups


on most of the


classic


icat


ons


but a disproportionate share of


Table 9


The Present Employmen t


Statuses


of the Experimental


and Comparison Groups


Present Employment Status


Experimental
Group (N=71)
) (cum.r)


Com~pa


r SOn


Group (N=60)
) (cum.


Housewife


28.2


30.0


(30.0)


Sti ll Employed Full-Time at
Primary Life Occupation


31.0


(59.2)


(36.7)


Retired from Primary Lifetime
Occupation but Still Working
Part-Time In It


(62.0)


(41 .7)


Retired from Primar


Lifetime


Occupation but Now Working
Full-Time in Another Occupation


(64 .8)


(43.4)


Retired from Primary Lifetime
Occupation but Now Working
Part-Time in Another Occupation


(64.8)


(46.7)


Fully Retired from
Work


Salaried


35.2


(10oo0.0)


53.3


C I co. )


the comparison group


was


experimental group subjects


fully retired and nearly five times


were


as many


still working full-time at their




41





whereas nearly hjlf of the comparison group subjects were not married.

It may also be true that marriage or remarriage may have been facill-


tated because the


subject had employment.


marital statues of


the subjects in both groups appear in Table


wa s


expected, most


Table


The Marital Statuses of the Experimental and Comparison Groups


Marital Status


Experimental
Group (N=71)
%) (Cum.r)


Compari


son,


Group (N=60)
) (Cum.


Married


85.9


(85.9)


60.0


(60.o)


Separated


37.5


Wi dowed


(60.0)

(96.7)


Divorced


(100oo.0)


(loo.o)


of the experimental group was still in a married


state.


Because


they


were originally selected on the basis of their being recently married,


should not be compared with the national figures


marital statues of old people in general.


as to the


However, the comparison


group


seems


to indicate that the aged people in the nine-county


area


of Florida roughly correspond to the marital statuses of other


aged


people in the United


States.


According to official estimates,


percent of al


are widowed (Ag


people over 65

ing, 1969:20).


years


Since th


age are married and 39 percent

e age floor in this study is


60. it is expected that sliahtlv more of the subjects would be


still












Regarding


sex,


41 subjects in the experimental group


were


and 30


were


females.


This


does


not indicate a reversal


in the aged


mortality trend but simply that many males in the


expert


mental group


were married to


women


were


too young to be subjects.


In the


compare son group,


slightly over 50 percent (31 subjects)


we re


females.


The figure for the whole United


States


years


old or


older is


7 percent female (Aging


l396S20) .


But it is


expected


that there would be a slightly h


percentage of males


in this study's comparison group, since the


floor for


still alive


section


owe r


by five


years.


Of the tota


131 experimental and comparison


group


subjects


74 or 56.5 percent


were


white and


or 43.5 percent


were


black.


the experimental group, 54 .9 percent


were


white while in


compare


ison


group


58.3


percent


were


wh i te.


The corresponding datum


for the State


of Florida


was 84.1


percent


white and for the nine-county


study


area,


which had 237,430 whites out


a total population of


was 77


.4 percent white (U.


Census,


1970:3-19).


This d i screpancy


can be partially accounted for by the fact that eight


the nine


refusals


intact


we re


by white persons; thus, if the samples had remained


, 59 percent of the subjects would have been white.


More of


this disparity is resolved by the fact that in Alachua County


Florida,


where most of the sample units were .drawn, only 69 percent of the


population over 60


years or aoe


was whi te (U.


-S


Census. 1960:ll-


wa s


,437, it











been 63. percent white if it had remained intact since all six


refusals in that group were by whites.


But all these


explanations


notwithstanding


of those


, it still remains true that a disproportionate share


people 60 years old or older who married in Alachua County,


Florida,


during the


yea rs


1966 to 1969, inclusive, were black,


although the difference is not great.


Testing of the Centra


Hypothesis


The major hypothesis of this work was that


a new marriage,


con-


traced late in life, will retard the disengagement process.


three measures of engagement used,


as outlined previously, were life-


space


measure f score, role count, and perceived lifespace


score


(see Appendix)


The decision was made that there must be a significant dif-


ference in all three measures to reject the null hypothesis.


each


A! though


of the tests, in itself, measures a dimension of disengagement,


they have been used in combination in past research; moreover, the


author desired that the testing be rigid as possible.


important variations are noted on a


Howeve r


single measure, they are d


* -n


discussed


at length.


A significant difference in the results of two out of


three measures is considered inconclusive.


The null hypothesis is


not rejected if a significant difference is noted in only one or none

of the measures.2





44





In the statistical analyses of all data, the lowest acceptable


level of confidence is the usua

are not considered significant


.05 level.


Any noted differences


at any lower confidence level


but any


clearly visible differences, albeit not statistically significant,


discussed.

The first of the three measures was the lifespace measure


frequency (or f)


score.


This was based on:


) the number of others


in the household (which


was multiplied by 30)


) the number of close


relatives, neighbors, and friends (which was multiplied by 30 if


seen daily


, by4 if


seen


weekly, etc.); 3) the number of coworkers


one talks to on the job, if the respondent is still employed (which


was multiplied by 20)


and 4) the number of other people


seen


week for certain


sum


became


spec


fic purposes (which was multiplied by 4)


the total lifespace f


score.


The results of this first test are presented in Table


, which


reflects a visible relationship in the direction predicted, although


the distributions failed to attain statistical significance.


close inspection, albeit the relationship


was


Upon


not statistically


significant, the data in the table reveal that nearly two-thirds (63

percent) of the comparison group respondents were concentrated in the

lowest two interactional columns while less than half (46 percent) of


the experimental group respondents were positioned there.


This


are


The













cC~5


0


CO O
- .*
c' O
O


a'~


. 9

0


9C 0D


a'



Cfl\D


U~O~


o..r






0O .,


cnr


00
O O
0 0
rnr"-


00
ifl',D
* -




ci
C-)


Q


h











clustering by the comparison group subjects in the lower columns


continued until the


scores


reached 300, with over three-fourths of


comparison


group


versus


less than two-thirds of the experimenta


group


account ted


for at that leave


\Wlith the majority


of the experi-


mental


group


scoring between 200 and 1,000 on the l i fespace


measure


and the majority of the comparison group scoring below 200, it


does


seem


to be true that the newly


ywed


aged subjects interacted


more


with


others in the house, relatives, friends


neighbors,


coworkers,


other specific people in general than did the other


aged
-s


subjects


in the stud


The second of three


measures


of engagement used in this study


was the total


role count.


The total role count


vias


based on:


1) number in household (scored


point if one other 1i


ves


zero


if respondent lives alone,


with him, and two points if two or


one


more


others live there)


2) number of close friends, relatives, and


neighbors (scored one point for any,


zero


for none); 3) specific


people (scored one point if any


are seen


zero


for none)


4) fellow


workers (scored


one


point


f respondent is employed


at al


none if


no longer working), 5) church (scored


one point if attends tw


month or oftener,


zero


attends less frequently); and 6) clubs


(scored


one


point if


a member of any,


zero


a member of none).


The sum


becomes


the role count.


The possible range is 0 to 9.


However


, no one in this study had


a zero


role count.










Tabl


e 12


The Total Role Counts of the Experimental
and Comparison Groups (Percentages)-
^^^^k~fTl^|~~tp^^h^^^l4^*fBt*B^ *4^H^|^HrU*'~l^^^*^lb~^**rhflB^J ^qikBq~ieW^lBB~^u~_^u~~rT^Ph-h-LlfH Jl^^^U~kIf W~rtq^^~~nnHUU^tW W ^ Mj ^q~^^l~f^WU^BU W 1T ^BWkJd4B^-lt~t --Uk^^i ^^ "- W 'll-- f- -U^ABr^Hi^^Bt^Hq^^^ ^~tt^J^'^i^^f^^ttf^ffW^~W^H~Hnfh^^^^f^k^~^^


To ta


Group


Role Count


Total


Exp.+


39.~4


22.5


(N=71) (1.4) (1.4) (5.6) (12.6) (28.1) (67.5) (90.0) (98.5) (100.0)


99.9
(99.9)


Comp.


28.3


16.7


20.0


00.0


(N=60) (0.0) (0.0) (6.7) (30.0) (58.3) (75.0) (95.0) (100.0) (100.0) (]00.0)


= 11.9


*Figur
+Total


in parent


percentages


heses d
do not


p > .05
enote cumulative
eaual exactly 1


percent
00.0 due


ges.
to rounding.


statistical significance, it does


appear


that the aged


newlyweds


had more


roles


as measured by number of close friends, relatives, neighbors,


friends, coworkers, household members, along with church and club activities


than had the other aged persons tested in this study.


ference can be noted in the first two


While little dif-


columns, the majority of the compari-


son group placed in the middle columns,


, 4, and


whe reas


the majority


of the experimental group fell in the highest columns,


7, 8, and


This


does


seem


to indicate that the newlywed aged subjects appear to have


more roles than the other aged subjects in this study.


observed


It can a


that 77.4 percent of the responses for the experimental group


fell in the 5-through-7


classes


as against only 65.0 percent for the


comparison group; and that while


58.3


percent


or wel


over half, of












group, were limited to that number of roles.


All this evidence points


in the direction of confirmation of the hypotheses,


even


though sta-


tistically the possibility of


samp


1i ng variabili ty


as the explanation


cannot be ruled out.


The third measure of engagement used in this study


was


the per-


ceived lifespace


score.


The perceived 1ifespace


score


was based on


the subject's evaluation of his international level at


in comparison with his present level.


age forty-five


The respondent scored more points


if more active now


some


points if activity


evel remained about the


same, and fewer points if he was more active in the past.


range was from 9 to 19 (


see


The possible


Appendix).


The results of the perceived


fespace test (Table 13) demon-


state a relationship in the predicted direction.


Although the two


groups


we re


fairly evenly distributed throughout the middle columns,


the comparison group had a disproportionate number in the lower two

columns, while the experimental group subjects had a larger share in


the two higher columns.


It does appear from the data that when the


respondents in both samples


were


asked to give their perception of the


difference in their activity levels now compared to these levels

age forty-five, the aged newlywed subjects perceived themselves


relatively more active than did the rest of the elderly respondents


at their present


ages,


though


again, the relationship did not achieve


S r -? .


ctz~tc rn c~ nfl r'nn'


- _-1


~t3t;ft;









Tabl


e 13


The Tota


Perceived Li fespace


Scores


of the Experimenta


and Comparison Groups (Percentages)*


Total Perceived Lifesoace


Group


Score


16-19


Total


Exp.
(N=71)(


22.5


22.5


) (7


(81.7)


9.9
(91.6)


(95.8)


(100.0)


100.0
(100.0)


Comp


21.7


11.7


00.0


N=60)(23


(46.6


4.9)


(96.6)


(100.0)


(100.0)


X2 = 1.7 df = 7 p .05
. *Figures in parentheses denote cumulative percentages.


three measure


of disengagement


, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.


However, there


was a tendency in the data in all three tests toward


confirmation of the central hypothesis.


Testing of the Subhypotheses


Subhypothesis A stipulated that married subjects in the compari-


son group


would be more engaged than unmarried subjects in that group.


responses


of these subjects


were


tabulated and analyzed in


same


manner


as was


case


with the central hypothesis.


For this


analysis,


the widowed, divorced, and separated columns shown in Table 10


were


collapsed into


a single unmarried


category.


For the comparison


group, then, this means 36 respondents (60?%)


are


classified


as married


and 24 respondents (40%)


as unmarried subject


An ,*nc r rn eiat t -I, a n:o Fcno


erR~~


1.17F


F


a











Table 14


The Lifespace Measure f


Scores


of the Married and Unmarried


Subjects in the Comparison Groups (Percentages)*


Tota


Score


on Lifespace


Measure


Group


Tota


0-99


100-139


200-299


300-399


400o-419 9


over


Married


(N=36)


22.2


(22.2)


(58.3)


16.7
(75.0)


(77.8)


(89.9)


(100.0)


100.0


(100.0)


married


(t=24)


41.7
(41.7)


29.9
(71.6)


12.6


(84.2)


(92.6)


(96.8)


(loo100.0)


00.0


(loo100.0)


2.2


*Figures in parentheses deno


cumulative percentages.


relationship in the direction predicted.


Nearly twice the percentage


or unmarried subjects


as married


ones


scored


in the very lowest life-


space


category while the incidence of married subjects in the scoring


columns of 200 and above


was nearly double that of unmarried subjects.


Hence, it


does


appear


that the married subjects in the comparison


group interact


slightly more with other people in general than do the


unmarried subjects in that group, but again the relationship was not

strong enough to be significant statistically.


The role count results presented in Table


5 reveal


a tendency


for the data on this measure to offer support for the hypothesis.


majority of the unmarried subjects fell


in the lower three columns and


the mainritv of the married P nlh pn tfha Inner threP* thus. t he r]dt-










Table


The Tota


ole Counts of the Married and Unmarried Subjects
n the Comparison Group (Percentages)*


Marital
Status


Total Ro


Count


Total


Married
(N=36)


(8.3)


(16.6)


(44.4)


16.7
(61 .1)


30.6
(91.7)


(1oo0.0)


100.0
(100.0)


married+
(1=24)


16.8


(4.2)


(49.4)


(m.3)


(96.1)


(100.3)


(100.3)


100.3
(100.3)


X2 = 7.7 df = 5 p > .05
*Figures in parentheses denote cumulative percentages.
+Total percentages do not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding .


specific acquaintances, re


atives


, neighbors, coworkers, others in the


house, and are more active in clubs and church than the unmarried


subjects in the comparison group


even


though the distributions


were


not sufficiently different to be significant at the acceptable level

of confidence.

None of the comparison group scored higher than 16 on the per-


ceived lifespace measure (Table 16).


The distributions show that the


chances of an unmarried subject being in the lowest scored column were


more than 50 percent greater than for


a married subject and the inci-


dence of married subj


ects


in the uppermost category


was considerably


higher than that of the unmarried subjects.


Hence,


elderly married


rn~nla











Table 16


Tota


Perceived Lifespace


Scores


of the Married and Unmarried


Subjects


in the Comparison Group (Percentages)*


Mari


Tota


Perceived Lifespace


Score


-Total


Status


Married
(N=36)


(19.4)


(44.4)


27.8
(72.2)


(86.1)


(94.4)


(loo.0)


100.0
(100.0)


married+
(N=24)


29.9
(29.9)


20.8
(50.7)


12.6


16.8


(80.1)


(84.3) (100oo.0)


(100.0)


= 6.9


*Figures in parent


heses


p .05


denote


cumulati


percentages.


+Total percentages do not equa


exactly 100.0 due


to rounding.


difference


fidence


was


insufficient to be significant at the acceptable con-


evel, however.


Since


a difference in marita


status in the comparison group


was not shown to be significant in any of the three


measures


of dis-


engagement, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.


Again, however,


the data demonstrated a tendency in all three tests toward confirm-

ing the hypothesis.

Subhypothesis B maintained that female subjects in the experi-

mental group will be more engaged than male subjects in that group.


The lifespace measure results


are presented in Table 17.











Table 17


The Lifespace Measure f


Scores


of the Male and Female


Subjects in the Experimental Group (Percentages) '


-~~~ ----~


Total f


Score


on Lifespace Measure


0-39


200-


300-


400-


Total


500-


1000-


2000


1999


Over


Male+-
(N=41)


17.1


22.0


22.0


(17.1) (39.1) (61 .1) (68.4) (73.


19.5 4.9 2.4 100
(92.8) (97.7) (100.0) (100


Female
(N=30)


20.0


36.7


16.7


0 13.3 3.3 6.7 3.3 100.0
4) (86.7) (90.0) (96.7) (oo100.0) (oo100.0)


- 2 1


*Figure


s in par


entheses


denote


cumulative


percentages.


+Total percent


ages


do not


ezua


exactly 100.0


due to rounding.


The role count by


sex is depicted in Table 18.


The differences


between the distributions


were


not statistically significant.


The per-


centage
-d


of ma


was


greater in the lower three role count columns but


Table 18


The Total Rol


Counts of the Mal


and Female


ubjccts


in the Experimental Group (Percentages)


Tota


Role Count


Total


i-a le+


34.1


(2.4)


26.8


12.2


994. 9


4) (7.3) (14.6) (24.4) (58.5) (85.3) (97.5) (100.0)(100.0)


(20. 0) (56.7) (73 it)












was also greater in the three higher role count columns.


centage of females


The per-


was greater in the middle three role count columns.


The weight of the


extremes


cancels out the weight


of the mean, and


the data remain inconclusive.


The perceived lifespace


score


sex is presented in Table 19.


Table 19


The Total


Fema


Subj


Perce
ects


ived L


fespace


Scores


in the Experimental Grou


of the Male and


(Percentages)*


Total Perceived Lifespace


Score


16-19


Total


Male+
(N=41)


14.6


22.0


26.8


19.5


99.9


(14.5) (36.6) (63.4) (82.9) (85.3) (90.2) (95.1) (100.0) (100.0)


Fema le
(N=30)


10.0


16.7


10.0


16.7


16.7


(10.0) (33.3) (50.0) (60.0) (76.7) (93.4)


100.0


7) (100.0) (100.0)


=3.6


p > .05


*Figures


in parent


heses


denote


cumulative


percentages.


+Total percentage does not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding.


As was the


case


with the two previous tabulations, the variances


between distributions


were


not significant statistically and the data


in the table, when studied, also appear neither to confirm nor to deny


this inconclus


iveness.


A difference i n


sex


did not prove to be a significant variable


-. 4r 4i*r










Testing of the Workina Hypotheses and Corollaries


The first working hypothesis stipulated that the greater the

number of living children the aged subjects have in either group, the


less will be their disengagement.


The initial corollary stipulated


that,if the null hypothesis can be rejected, the relationship will be


stronger in the experimental group than in the comparison group.


breakdown of the number of living children in both groups is presented


in Table 20.


As can be


seen,


more of the experimental group had no


Table 20
Number of Living Children in the Experimental
and Comparison Groups (Percentages)>'


Group


Number of Livinq Children


Total


9 or
More


Exp.+
(N=71) (


.4) (43.7) (71.9) (77.5) (84.5) (


8 1.4 2.5 2.a 5.6 99.9
3)(88.9)(91.5)(94.3) (99.9) (99.9)


Comp.
(N=60)


15.0 33
!5.0)(48


13.3


00.0


)(76.6)(89.9) (93.2) (94.9) (94.9) (96.6) (98.3)(100.0)(100o.0)


*Figures in parentheses denote cumulative percentages.


+Total percentages do not eaual


exact


v 100.0 due to rounding.


children.


The experiment


group also had


a greater incidence of four


or more children with 22.4 percent distributed in those columns with


percent for the comparison group.


The last five columns are collapsed into a single "5 or more"












0O 0
a


NO


0 0


-C'
a a
p-a'
-0~'~


C-'


oco
a
ow


oc


C-.
*-co
a a
-03
-C)


OCNJ


cFC1~J


00
a
LflO
0~'


r-rn
* a








* C

'0





C-
(Nj a.~


C-


0 0


0 0








O r-
o0o


0 0


0 0


00
*
00
0



c-'0



a

0


0 0


OO
0 0

0 0
N-


tn-t
0~




C-'
En C'J
C
r~cO
c'4oZ~


00


00
* e


00
* C


C
0
-4
Lfl

0~'-~
E
0
0


~F2

















0 0


0 0


0 0


00


0 0


LAO~


0 L(







o o
** *
0 0






o o
*
CM r



00o


O 0


C-
au-I
*
oc"J
kO




C'
Otr~
* 0
ON
'-0





C-.


0 0
* L
LPNrN
C OJ


0 0


O *


O 0
00


00
* S
00


0 0
S


C-.
CO


00


00


0O 0



* O
0 0
0






0 0


O 0


OIO
0 0

Or\ CTA
c^ en


OO
00
3~0^


0 0


0 0


C'
00
S

C~\~0





C'
00


0 0
* S
C\C\\


00


0 0
0 0
0 0
uL/


0 0


C-'
00
0 0
u-'u'
CNJCNI


-o


LA
0
*

A

taO


A


N
0*
Ho-

C)

(-5


Utnc
C)
NJ tflO
>c 0)-u

4J(fl
.0cc)


0044
* Q~c
C!) C)
Cu
U.-.-
o CI
(/) u, a.
S-c)
LL-
cont

~ a
OIL 1--.
o.-~ +~














o'a'~


-R-


0


o0


C-'
-0\

-a'
r-o~
4%-


C-
4Th-

Lr~4


-c


r-. -



C-.
u~Lr\


Ss


- -D


e -













0 0


O


0 0


0 0


0 00

01 O


00


0 0
** *
0 0
0





urnO


0 0
0




0 0
* S
0 0
0






0 0


00


0 0




0 0
**
0 0





0 0


00


0 0
*
0 0
0





0 0
* a


-S


0 0
* 1
0OLCI


U\0
* S

kOh~




OLC\
* S
ON




--S
tnt"
* S
NC'J
- -



C-
00
* *
00


00
* ft
00


0 0
* *
0 0
CO




00


OO
00

00





00
* 6
00


00
* S
00





00
O o

*



00
OO



OO
00
OO*
00o


0 0
* a
0 0
0





S
0 0
0






0 0


0 0

0 0

0 0


0


00
O*
00
OO-




00
OO*
00




00
* S

00
OO-.


*
o r
cm





00
* a
oO







o o
* *






0 o


0 0


00


00
* S
00





00
* S
00




00
* S
00


00
0
I-





S
0 0
0
OO

Oo


C-'
00
S S
oLd-'


00


C--
00
S S
LflIS\
c'JN



C-'
00


00


O O


-ZrQ


S. ,-
toeD

DC
00.)
LE
0*-
L
SZC)
4-sct
ox
cow





































~0-
v-tn


00
4-,

cc-I
a-u

--C)
-in-
4-
4-
ocn
a


.flL


S S


0 0
0









-

0


C-
'-Dc-'
S

co


C-


-N


C-,
a~u~
0 5


ocr


00*


ocr~
* a

cm







a


4 Sn


-r u1


tr-


0O


0 0
O *
0 0
0


00S


0


r


S0


tO
0








0 0


C-


A 0
.-0
-0


0~r\


* 4








C- \
* S
F .> -
W1 r^


- 0


C-
0 0
*

LC\O






0 0
* a


0 0


- A L


0 0

in lLa


0
* S


C-
00
S 4
LaO
-a,


00
a a
Lt\ Lil



LO
v0







0 0


0o-


-03







C-
'flit'


O-
*a


- -


00
1 1
u\u


In LA


C-
0)0
EC'J
a-fl


a










0


0o S


O


00


00


0 r


0

0
rO






00c


C-
00
*
Cu-'







C-
00
* S
flu'
CNJr-%


0


oo


C-
tf'0


O Lf
* 9





Oth-
00








S


C-
00
C
Ott'







C-
LAO


C-
LA LA


0 0


0


00
O *
0 0






CO
0 0
* S
00
\^


0 0
* S
0 0








0 0


0 0
* S


0


- -
C-
0 0


00
*OO
0 0
0







00
o S
0 0
0






0 0'


0 0


00
S S
00


OO
00
S S
00


00
* S






o'c



00


0 0

O o
cn



o o


0 0


0 0
* a
en o,


0 0
* *


C r

mm


00


OO
00

0 0
LA


O-
00
*
00




OO







OO
0 0
* a
0 0
C.o.







00


II
C
(-'C

S.
-
0
0
S

V

C


II
LI)
00
S.
- -en
Ji.- 4-)
~0c
*0C)

1~~
10
a
aa
C)

a -
44
no rtj
"-' -S
II
II E


a a
U)

:J C.
00-
>CLJ
C-Jo
U
C S I-













The distributions in Tables 21 and


were


not significantly


different and the data in them, on being scrutinized, appear to reflect


the absence of the predicted relationship.


All the chi


squares


pro-


duced from Table


were significant, but


since


a difference in


number of living children


wa S


shown to be significant on only


out of three measures of disengagement, the null hypothesis cannot


rejected.


By definition, this also makes the corollary untenable.


However, when


a C test


was performed on the chi squares from the


measure which produced a statistically significant difference, it


was shown that the relationship


was stronger for the comparison


group


than the experimental group, which


s in the direction opposite from


the prediction.


Therefore


, though the null hypothesis cannot


rejected, the number of living children did prove to be


a significant


variable on one measure of disengagement (perceived lifespace)


there


exists


a partial tendency toward the confirmation of the hypothe-


S'S.


Surprisingly, however, though the data tend toward affirmation


of the hypothesis in general


, they a


seem to refute the corollary.


Hence, it appears, at least in part, that children interfere with


disengagement process of all aged people but more


who are not in a new marriage situation.


so with older people


This particular study did


not gather any explanatory data on this situation but it may be


a 1 -. .1 L. 3 .4 ... I L. L


S a- -


. ~ ~ L r.l -z ~z --.- -- .-A


one


one


_^ _










perhaps, merely for estate purposes; whereas an old person without

close family ties may tend more to marry again simply for companion-

ship due to his loneliness.

The second working hypothesis stated that the greater the


number,


living siblings an aged person has in both the experimental


and comparison group


, the less will be his disengagement.


corollary stipulated that if a significant difference is noted, the


relationship will be stronger in the


compare son.


experimental group than in the


Initially, it will be of interest to tabulate the number


of living siblings for both groups.


This is accomplished in Table 24.


Table 24

The Nlumber of Living Siblings in the Experimental


and Comparison Groups (Per


IlLt


ages)*


IIII-. -- I-1I .I


Group


Number of Living Siblings


Total


9 or
more


Exp.+-
(N=71) (


23.9
23.9


22.5 18.3 9.9 5.6 7.0 5.6 0.0 2.8 4.2 99.8
)(46.4)(64.7)(74.5)(80.2)(87.2)(92.8)(92 .8)(95.6)(99.8)(99.8)


Comp.+
(N=60)


28.3
(28.3


15.0 15.0 8.3 13.3 8
) (43.3) (58.3)(66.6)(79.9) (88


3.3 1.7 3
) (91.5) (93.2) (96


3
)(99


99.8
)(99.8)


*Figures in parentheses denote cumulati


percentages.


+Total percentages do not equal exactly 100.0 due


to rounding.


The data indicate that there


was very little variation in the number










three tables.


These distributions, then, on the three measures of


engagement by the number of living siblings,


are presented in Tables


and 27.


Table


Total Lifespace Measure f tScore by Number of Living Siblings for
the Experimental and Compoarison Groups Combined (Percentages)*


Number


Living
Siblings


Total L


0-99


100-
199


200-
299


ifespace


300-
399


IMeasu re


400-
499


500-
999


1000-
1999


Total
2000 or
more


0
(N=34)


32.4 35.3 17
(32.4) (67.7) (85


2.9 2.9 2.9 2.0 2.9 100.0
) (88.4) (91.3) (94.2) (97.1 ) (100.0) (100.0)


1
(N=25)

2
(N=22)


24.0 44.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 0.0 100.0
(24.0) (68.0) (72.0) (76.0) (84.0) (92.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

27.3 22.7 27.3 4.5 18.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
(27.3) (50.0) (77.3) (81.8)(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100O.0) (100.0)


3
(N=12)


0.0 25.0 16.7 0.0 8.3
(0.0) (25.0) (41.7) (41.7) (50.0)


.0 16.7 8.3 100.0
.0) (91.7) (100.0) (100.0)


4+
(N=12)


33.3 25.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
(33.3) (58.3) (83.3) (83.3) (83.3) (83.3) (91.6)


8.3
(99.9)


99.9
(99.9)


5
(N= 10)

6
(N=6)


or more
(N=10)


20.0 20.0 30.0 10.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
(20.0) (40.0) (70.0) (80.0) (80.0)(l00.0)(0O0.0) (100.0) (100.0)

33.3 16.7 16.7 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
(33.3) (50.6) (66.7)(I00.)(O0.0) (100.0)(l00 O.0) (100.0) (o100.0)


0.0 30.0 10.0 0.0 30.0 20.0 0.0 10.0 100.0
(0.0) (30.0) (40.0) (40.0) (70.0) (90.0) (90.0) (100.0) (100.0)


X2 = 107.3 df = 49 D <.01. C = .63












The contingency coefficient of .63, which was calculated for


Table


, is indicative of a moderately strong relationship.


Although


the tabulation summarizes the data for both groups combined, cht


squares


we r e


computed from the raw data on each group separately;


for the experimental group it was significant at the .001 level, while


for the comparison group alone it was not significant.


From this it


appears, in this first test at least, that the data tend to demon-


state a relationship


and that it


s in the direction predicted.


The results of the second-test on the importance of the number

of living siblings to the total role count are presented in Table 26.

Again, although Table 26 only summarizes the data for both groups,

chi squares were computed on the raw data for each group alone;


however, neither chi square


was of sufficient magnitude to be signifi-


cant at the .05 level of confidence.


The outcome of the perceived lifespace


giving siblings is depicted in Table


score


As in Tables


by the number of


and 26,


distributions in Table 27 represent the total for both the experimental


and comparison groups taken together; however, the ch


i square statistic


was again computed on the raw data from each group by itself and in


both


cases


the chi square produced was not significant at the accepta-


ble confidence level.

Since a difference in the number of living siblings was shown

*njr kcs c" nn rtirn l C-i -i.^- k,-^\V k ,,V r-rn/vlr~c- p. ant 1^^ ,-n an 4^v -. r,'F *f-l rao^^ mot^ *^C irac /











Table


The Total Role Count by
the Experinm ntal and Com


the
pa r I s


Number of
on Groups


Living Siblings for Both
Co:bined (Percentages)*


- -- -- --.-~- -.- -~


Total Role Count


Living
Siblings


Total


1 __2 3 4 5 6 7


0+;


2.9 0.0
(2.9) (2.9)


5.9
(8.8)


23.5
(32.3)


26.5
82.3)


14.7 0.0 2.9 S9.9
(97.0) (37.0) (99.9) (99.9)


1
(N=25)


0.0 0.0
(0.0) (0.0)


4.0 20.0
(4.0)(24.0)


28.0
(80.0)


16.0 4.0 0.0 100.0
(96.0)(oo100.0) (oo100.0)(1oo00.0)


2
(N=22)


0.0 0.0
(0.0) (0.0)


9.1 9.1 13.6 40.9 22.7 4.5 0.0 100.0
(9.1)(18.2)(31 .8)(72.7) (33.,) (00.0)(100.0)(100.0)


3+


0.0 0.0
(0.0) (0.0)


8.3 0.0 0.0
(8.3) (8.3) (8.3)


0 33.3
3) (66.6)


33.3
(S9.S)


0.0 99
(99.9) (S9


(N=12)


0.0 0.0
(0.0) (0.0)


0.0
(0.0)


.0 16.7
.o) (4m.7)


.0 8.3 0.0 100.0
.7) ( 100.o) 0Ioo.)(10oo. o)


5
(N=10)


0.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 100.0
(0.0) (0.0) (10.0)(20.0)(40.0)(70.0) (90.0)(00.0)(3)00.0)(O0O. )


6
(N=6)


0.0 0.0
(0.0) (0.0)


0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 50.0 0.0. 0.0 100.0
(0.0) (0.0) (50.0) (50.0)(100.0)(100.0) (100.0) (100.0)


or more 0.0 0.0
(N=10o) (0.0) (0.0)


0.0 0.0 30.0 40.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 100.0
(0.0) (0.0) (30.0)(70.0) (90.0)(00.0)(100.0)(00O.0)


X2 = 45.9 df = 48 p > .05
*Figures in parentheses denote cumulative percentages.
+Total percentages do not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding.










Table 27


The Total Perceived Lifespace Score by the Number
Siblings for Both the Experimental and
Comparison Groups Combined (Percentages)


Number


Total Perceived Lifespace


of Living


Score


Living
Siblings


0
(N=34)


Total


16-19


9


1 )4.7 26.5 29.) 14.7 5.9 5.9 2.9 0.0 100.0
(14.7) (h1 .2) (70.6) (85.3) (91 .2) (97.1) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)


1
* (N=25)


20.0 28.0 12.0 12.0 8.0 12.0
(20.0) (48.0) (60.0) (72.0) (80.0) (92.0)


0.0 8.0 100.0
(92.0) (100.0) (100.0)


2+
(N=22)


7 27.3 27.3 13.6 4.55
7) (50.0) (77.3) (90.9) (95.4) (99.9)


0.0
(99.9)


0.0
(99.9)


99.9
(99.9)


3+
(N=12)


16.7 8.3 25.0
(16.7) (25.0) (50.0)


8.3 8.3
(91.6) (99.9)


0.0
(99.9)


0.0
(99.9)


99.9
(99.9)


4+
(N=12)


8.3 33.3 16.7 16.7 8.3 8.3
(8.3) (41.6) (58.3) (75.0) (83.3) (91.6)


0.0
(91 .6)


99.9
(99.9)


5
(N=o10)

6
(N=6)


20.0 10.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 30.0 10.0 0.0 100.0
(20.0) (30.0) (50.0) (60.0) (60.0) (90.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)

0.0 16.7 33.3 16.7 0.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 100.0
(0.0) (16.7) (50.0) (66.7) (66.7)000.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0)


7
or more
(N=10)


30.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 10.0
(30O.0) (40.0) (50.0) (50.0) (60.0) (70.0)


20.0 10.0 100.0
(90.0) (oo100.0) (100.0)


X2 = 68.2 df = 49 p .05
*Figures in parentheses depict cumulative percentages.
+Total percentages do not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding.





68





the groups taken separately), the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.


By definition this


makes the corollary untenable.


However, the


results of one test


1 ifes


pace


measure f score) were in keeping with


the h


ypot


hesis and the relationship was certainly stronger in the


experimental group; thus, it can be said,


as well


that the data


tended to confirm the corollary.


In human terms this means that old


people with a greater number of brothers and sisters


see and talk to


more people generally than old people with fewer brothers and sisters.


It a


means that aged newlyweds with the


same


number of brothers


and sisters


as aged persons who are not newly wed tend to


see and talk


more to other people.

The third working hypothesis stated that urban aged subjects


will be more engaged than rura


aged subjects.


The corollary stipu-


lated that if a


gnificant difference is noted, the relationship


will be stronger in the experimental than in the comparison group.


The di


stributions for the lifespace measure f


score


by resi-


dence (Tab


28) did not vary enough to achieve statistical significance.


The data, on examination, do not seem to revea


ship, hence the lack of statistics


any degree of relation-


significance appears to be corro-


borated.


The results


of the role count device by rural/urban residence


are exhibited in Table 29.


Even though the ch


square statistic


generated from the distributions was not significant, the rural re-




69





Table 28

Total Lifespace Mi asure f Score by Rural and Urban
Residence for Both the Experimental and Comparison Groups Combined
(Percentages)^'


* Resi-
dence


Tota l Lifespace


0-99


100-


300-


% ;?r~5L I-e


f Score


500-


1000-


2000- 3000


Total


199 299 39490013 9


over


21.2


(N=66) (21.2) (54.5)


16.7 6.1 7.6 10.6 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
71.2) (77.3) (84.9) (5.5) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (oo00.0)


Rura 1--


26.2


27.77


"18.5


(r;=65) (26.2) (53.9) (72.4) (75.5) (84.7) (89.3) (93


X- : 0.3 df = 8
*Figures in parent


eses


ict cumulative


percentages.


+Total


percenteqes


do not


equaE exactly 100.0 due to rounding.


Table 29

The Total Role Count by Rural and Urban Residence
for Both the Experimental and Comparison Groups Combined
(Percentages)o

.1- -- -.mim li-II*


Total Ro


Count


__ _--,, ,Tota1t


Urban+-
(N=66)


(0.0) (0.0)


0.0 16.7 18.2 27.3 25.8 10.6 1.5 100.1
(0.0) (16.7) (34.9) (62.2) (88.0) (98.6) (100.0)(100.1)


Rural
(N=65)


10.8


(1.5) (


12.3


24.6


30.8


16.9


100.0


Urban


1.5 4.6 100.5
(95.9)(100.5)(100.5)


ResI -
dence


.5) (12.3) (24.3) (49.2) (80.0) (96.9)(100.0) (100.O)(100.0)


i, nn,











the urban respondents led the rural ones in the three higher role


columns.


Thrlis


seems


to give support to the hypothesis and in the pre-


dicted direction.


The chi square cormputed from the third test involving the


per-


ceived lifesDace


score


by rural or uruan residence of the subjects


was zot


significant, and the data within the distributions also appear not to

demonstrate the predicted pattern (Table 30).


Table 30


Total Perceived Lifespace


Sc re


by Rural and Urban Residence


for the Experirnmntal and Comparison Groups Combined
(Percentages) ,

*T r ri! r Iil ir ~i I~ i~~r ** 'ii ~~iiin ii ii 1 l ll 1*;.- -i_-_|- .illi.L 11.*** *- ,, -- n ^ -_r "il- ... i |1" 11_ ~'" ._41 ** ~lril__ i ^^_ "r '"~ U'.-L 11^ *r L_ T -" _1 -*** .l *i-ri -im U- -"" ir.n -- -- --- ---^- _-. j -- .__ ._ ^ _-.i __ -_ ^ _


Total Perceived Lifespace Score


Res i-
dence


17-19


Total


Urban


19.7


21.2


19.7


100.0


(N=66) (19.7) (40.9) (60.6) (75.8) (81.9) (91.0 ) (94.0 ) (58.5)(100.0)(100 .0)

Rural 15.4 24.6 24.6 13.8 6.2 12.3 3.1 0.0. 0.0 100.0
(N=65) (15.4) (40.0) (64.6) (78.4) (84.6) (96.9)(100.0)(loo.0)(loo0.0)(100.0)


= 0.45


p> .05


Figures in parentheses depict cumulative percentages.


Since an urban-rural difference was not statistically demonstrated

to be significant for any of the three measures of engagement, the null


hypothesis cannot be rejected.


By definition, this also makes the corol-


lary untenable.


However, on one measure (role count) there


seemed


to be


COun t











suggests


that aged persons living in cities do tend to have more con-


tacts with other people on


a regular basis than elderly people living in


the country.

The fourth working hypothesis stated that the subjects in both


groups


~.ave


spouses


under the


of 60 will be more


engaged


than the


subjects


whose


spouses


are 60


years


or older.


The corollary stipu-


lated that if


a significant difference is noted, the relationship will be


stronger in the experimental than in the comparison group.


The outcome of the lifespace


measure


score


the age of


spouse


for the


subjects


of both groups combined


is displayed in Table 31.


Though


Table 31


Total Lifespace fea


sure


by Age of


Spouse


for Both


the Experimental and Comparison Grou


Combined (Pe


rcen


tages)*


Total Lifespace


0-99


100-


200-


4,


300-


Score
500-


1000-


2000


Total


1999


over


60 or Over+
(N=62)


22.6 37.1 17.7 3.2
(22.6) (59.7) (77.4) (80.6) (


4.8 6.5 4.8
85.4) (91.9) (96.7)


3.2
(99.9)


99.9
(99.9)


Under 60
(N=34)


17.6 14.7 23.5 5.9 11.8 14.7 5.9 5.8 100.0
(17.6) (32.3) (55.8) (61.7) (73.5) (88.2) (91.4) (100.0) (100.0)


= 6.6


*Fig


ures


in parenthes


p> .05
represent


cumulative


percentages.


+Total pe


rcengages


do not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding.


Ij I *I1 II'. 111 ill''' If1'tL l 7~ar


n r f n nnr t-Hff n nPrent 0nnsn s- t;rl n F/ crrzf~1 cnnfb-,ri


r i~un


400-











wi th


spouses


over 60


years


old falling into the two lower columns on the


table and the subj


ects


with younger spouses leading on all the higher


columns, the configuration of data


seems


to lend support to the hypothe-


SIS.


Simplistically, this means that the younger the


spouse


an aged


person has


the more people he will know.


Table


presents the results of the ro


count


test


Table


Total Role Count b
Comparison Groups


of Spouse


Sepa


for the Experimental and


rately and Combined


(Percentages


Age of
SpouseGroup


Total Role Count


Total


60 or Exp. 0.0 0.0 5.7 14.3 14
-Older (N=35) (0.0)(0.0) (5.7)(20.0)(34


48.6 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
) (82.9) (100.0) (100.0)(100.0) (100.0)


Comp.+


25.9


18.5


Both+


11.3


19.4


100.1


(N=62) (0.0)(0.0) (8.1)(]9.4)(38.8)(74.3) (96.9)(100.1)(100.1)(100.1)


Under Exp.


21.4


35.7


21.4


00.0


(N=28) (3.6)(3.6) (3.6) (3.6) (17.9) (39.3) (75.0) (96.4)(100.0)(100.0)


Comp.+
(N=6)


16.7


16.7


50.0


16.7


00.1


(0.0)(0.0) (0.0)(16.7)(16.7)(33.4) (83.4)(100.1)(100.1)(100.1)


Both+


20.6


20.6


99.9


(N=34) (2.9)(2.9) (2.9) (5.8)(17.6)(38.2) (76.4) (97.0) (99.9) (99.9)


Both Groups:


11.44


=8


p> .05


- --2 --- a


(N =2 7), (0 0) (0 O ) ( 1 1 1 ) ( 1 8 5) (44 4 ) (62 3 ) (9 2 5 ) (9 9 9) (99 3 )












spouse.


The situation introduced here is unusual in that the distribu-


tions


for both g


groups


combined proved not to vary sufficiently to be


statistical 1


gnificant, which tends to refute the hypothesis, and the


data in the


taken


C -\


do not

the chi


seem


to contradict this finding.


square


for the experimental group


However, when

was statisti-


cally significant


while it


lwas not for the comparison group.


This


be interpreted


as supportive


of the corollary, which


means


that


aged newly


yweds


with young


spouses


tend to be more


active


in church


clubs and have


more


friends,


acqua intances,


neighbors


, relatives,


workers, and others in the house than do aged people in general who also


have young


spouses.


The distributions


resulting from the perceived lifespace


score


measure


spouse


appear


in Table


Notwithstanding that the


Table


The Total
the Exper


Perceived
mental and


Li fespace
Compare so


Score
n Grou


Age


of Spouse for Both


Combined


(Percenta


ges) w


Age of


Spouse


Total Perceived Lifesoace


Total


15-19


60 or Over


= 62)


21.0


25.8


21.0


(21.0) (46.8) (67.8) (83.9) (


.7) (95.2) (100.0)


00.0


(100oo.0)


Under 60
(N = 34)


23.5


11.8


11.8


(5.9) (29.4) (58.8) (70.6) (79.4) (91.2) (100.0)


00.0


(loo.o)


Cc-


- -- --





74





variance between the distributions did not reach statistical significance,

a greater percentage of subjects with older spouses occupied the two

lower columns of the table while a greater percentage of subjects with


young


spouses


occupied the three higher columns.


This


means


that


aged


people in


general


who have young


spouses


perceive themselves


as relatively


more


active now when compared with their younger selves than


do other aged


individuals whose


spouses


are over


years


aY a


Since a difference in the


spouse


was not shown to


'statistically significant for both groups in any of the three


engagement, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.


measures


By definition, this


makes the corollary untenable.


However, on two of the


measures


(lifespace f


score


and perceived lifespace score) the data, after


inspec-


tion, appeared to confirm the hypothesis to a degree.


Also in terms


the role count test, the data lent credence to the corollary.

The fifth and final working hypothesis stipulated that in both


groups


whites will be more engaged than blacks.


The corollary


stated


that if


a significant racial difference is noted, the relationship


will be stronger in the experimental than the comparison group.

The distributions of both groups on the lifespace measure


score


race


did not differ enough to achieve statistical significance


and the data within those distributions, when studied, do not appear


demonstrably vary (Tabl


The r










Table 34

The Lifespnce Measure f Score by Race for All Subjects
(Percentages) ''


~-- ~r -- --~~rt--r*- --cx 1C---.- s- -v -


Total Lifespace f Score


0-2


100-


200-


300-


too 3-


500-


1000-


2000- 3000


To t a


! 399 499 999 1999 2999 over


White+
(N=74)

Black+
(N=57)


23.0 27.0 16.2 2.7 8.1 10.8 6.8 1.4 4.1 100.1
(23.0) (50O.0) (66.2) (68.9) (77.0) (87.8) (94.6) (96.0)(100.0)(100l.1)

24.6 35.1 19.3 7.0 8.8 3.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 100.1
(24.6) (59.7) (79.0) (86.0) (9..8) (98.3)(100.1)(100.1)(100.1)(100.1)


= 4.2


p> .05


-Parenthetical figures represent cumulative percentages.
+Total percentages do not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding. -




Table 35

The Total Role Counts by Race for All Subjects
(Percentages) *


Total Role Count


Race


Total


Wh ite+
(N=74)


1.4
(1.4)


0.0 6.8
(1.4) (8.2)


23.0


28.4


18.9


10.8


100.1


9.0) (42.0) (70.4) (89.3)(100.0)(100.0)(100.1)


Black
(N=57)


0.0
(0.0)


0.0 3.5 19.3 13.3 29.8 24.6 1.8 1.8 100.0
(0.0) (3.5) (22.8) (42. 1) (71.9) (96.4) (98.2) (100.0) (100.0)


X = 0.65 af = 8


0 '~i>


Race











significant chi square statistic and the data, on being examined,


failed to show


a demonstrable difference.


The results of the final test (perceived lifespace)


are de-


picted in Table


These distributions also proved not to


be statistically


. significant at the acceptable level of confidence and the


data


within the


table do not


appear


to indicate


a clear pattern.


Table


The Perceived Lifespace


Score


for All


Subjects


(Percentages)*


Total Perceived Lifespace


Score


Race


Total


17-19


White+
(N=74)


14.9
(14.9) (


18.9


13.5


12.2


100.1


.8) (63.5) (77.0) (85.1) (97.3) (98.7)(100.1)(loo.1)(100oo.1)


Black+
(N=57)


28.1


12.3


15.8


100.2


.1) (49.2) (61.5) (77.3) (80.8) (89.6) (94.9) (98.4)(100.2)(100.2)


X = 3.2 df = 8 p > .05
-Parenthetical figures denote cumulati


+Total


percentages


do not


equa


exactyi


e percentage.
00.0 due to rounding.


Since a racial difference


was


not demonstrated


significant variable on the basis of any of the three


as a statistically


measures


engage-


ment, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.


makes the corollary untenable.


By definition, this also


In addition, none of the three distribu-





77





Because this study constructed formalized hypotheses for test-

ing, it had to be concerned with the statistical significance of the rela-


tionships; based on this

However, a few of the ch


, none of the 13 formulations proved tenable.

i squares calculated were significant and several


configurations of the data appeared to indicate


the existence


of a rela-


tionship.


To summarize


, the results of the hypotheses testing


are:


The hypothesis asserting that being newlywed should


retard the pro


cess


of disengagement


was supported by the


data configurations on all three measure


of engagement,


but none of these


tests


achieved statistical significance.


The hypothesis


asserting that being married should retard


the process of disengagement also appeared to be affirmed


by the configurations of data on all three


engagement, but none of the chi


measures


squares generated from


any of the distributions were of sufficient magnitude


to be significant at an


The hypothes


acceptab


e level of confidence.


asserting that being married to


a spouse


too young to be a subject should retard the disengagement


process of th
configuration


ment (lif


space


older mate


receive


some


supp


of data on two of the measures


measure f


score


ort from the


engage-
fespace


and perceived -i1


measure), but neither test resulted in


a statistically


significant relationship.

The hypothesis asserting that a large number of living
children should tend to retard an aged person's disen-
gagement received partial support because when tested by
the perceived lifespace score, a statistically signifi-


cant relationship


was


the result.


The hypothesis asserting that a large number of living
siblings should tend to retard an aged person's dis-
engagement received partial support, because when tested


by the lifespace measure f
statistic was significant.


score


the resultant ch


square











The hypothesis asserting that the urban elderly should
be less disengaged than the rural elderly received a


degree of support


because


the configuration of data on


the role count test exhibited a tendency toward confirma-
tion, although the variance between the distributions


was


not great enough to produce a statistically signifi-


cant relationship.


The hypothesi


asser


ting that women should


bel


ess


cis-


engaged than men


was categorically disproven


since none


of the three tests generated a significant


statist


none of the data configurations seemed to demonstrate any
observable patterning.


The hypothesis asserting that whites should


engaged than blacks


less dis-


was also categorically disproven


since none of the three tests generated


a significant


statistic and none of the data configuration seemed to


demonstrate any observab


patterning.


With regards to the five corollaries, all have to be considered


disproven since none of their hypotheses were categorically proven


however,


a summary of the consequences of the testing on the corollaries follows:


The corollary which stipulated that the experiment


group subject


with young spouses should be less dis


engaged than comparison group subjects with young


spouses received


some


credence from the role count


measure because that test achieved a statistically


significant difference in the experimental


the variance
statistical


n the comparison group failed
gni ficance.


roup while
to attain


The corollary which stipulated that the experimental


group subject


with the


same


number of


comparison group subjects should be les


acquired partial credence front the


f score since


siblings as
s disengaged


ifespace measure


that test achieved a statistically


significant difference in the experimental group while
the difference in the distributions for the comparison
group did not attain statistical significance.

The corollary which stipulated urban experimental group
^**(? rBe /^* .+ro/ A-/-* I / -,,, I net r* A4 ennn^^B- -jnaAp 4-t-.^-.n *a1rI -,.^ -mn*< r"nrn vk *j-w












The corollary which stipulated that white experimental


group subjects would


less disengaged than white


comparison group subjects also did not attain statisti-


cal significance on


of the three measures of en-


gagement and none of the configurations of data appeared
to demonstrate any observable patterning.


The corollary which


stipulated that the experimental


group subjects with the
parson group subjects


same


number of children


should be less disengaged


as corn


wa s


actually borne out in the direction opposite from that


predicted.


The chi


square tests performed on the dis-


tributions for the perceived lifespace


score


we r e


significant for both groups but the contingency coef-


ficients showed that the relationship


was stronger for


the comparison group.

Of the three measures of engagement used, each produced three


of the nine apparently related configurations of data.


But of the six


tests which


were


statistically significant, the perceived lifespace


measure produced three, the role count measure two, and the lifespace


measure f


score


only one.













CHAPTER FOUR

DISCUSSION


The preceding chapter


sugge is t ed


that although none of the hypotheses


was borne out statistically to an acceptable level of confidence, there


still might be


some


degree


of association between the variables tested.


However


, there may have been


some1


built-in bias that could account for


the differences in dise ngag ment that


we re


noticed between the samples.


Three examples of possible bias are presented.


They are the age differen-


tial between the two groups, differences in the number of other persons


in the household, and differences in life satisfaction.


shown to be statistically significant


statistical significance but ar

This means that the two samples


The first is


The two others did not attain


e shown to be potential sources of b


not compatible on three important


were


variables, and


f a bias


wa S


introduced because of them, it would act


toward confirmation of the hypotheses in the direction predicted.


Hence,


the apparent relationships observed in the data throughout the last

chapter might be the result of these differences between the groups

rather than their variations in disengagement.


Age Differential Between the Groups


is possible that a sample of aged newlyweds might contain more


than its proportionate share of younger old people, that is


persons in











91 Z~r!oi-1t$


proved to


Sn 3CCe


': ISe


of people over 80


(Table 37).


I'


Wi ith more than a third of


I .* S
Ii') I S flU$~Cu
I -


the c~xperi


rental group still in their early o0's and


ncna


of that


.~ C


r cec~mx1


he r 0Oth bi rthdaaywhile only


a fourth of


g (oUp


'h5 .ctr3


4I


early 60's and


a fifth of that


gre I


S.i1


-


years


old; an since


t.ne distributions did differ s-ufwlc h t l y to


bc5 r S.t i 5t i CEiy 1


sign f cent, It must be


assumed


s-Ic <,t


the cc.:risn group d a built-in
.:,e co,.::p rtson group nh dadb i t i


bi as toward d'i sen a~,ement.


T ble 37


Agcs of


and or ,


i.


Si son


C -c~r


for i ~x et n i 1 -- ta
S(Pz _"rcenn .si *


- -- ~ -- ~ .- ~ ~- -~- .


S; rcul;


Aqc of Res ondents


Total


65--69


70-7 4


73-79


over


Exper ;T..,i .t I
(N = 71)


Conp i
(N ;: So


33.8
(33.3)

25.0
(25.0)


45. 1
(78.9)

28.3
(53.3)


14.1
(93.0)

18.3
(71.6)


7.0
(1GO.O)

8.3
(79.9)


0.0
(100.0)

20.0
(99.9)


100.0
(100.0)

"3.3
(93.9)


-- 1CC5


P-r-.,.het ical. fig, jres denote cumulat ve percentages.
.. .:al percent.ages do not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding.__


Number of Others in Household

The nurm.'r of other persons in the subject's household is a key


Q~v% i Of


used in two of the three


rfeas~Ures3


of engaceneit (see Appendix A).


fl\i,g


7


~0-;lf











might average out much higher on the number of others in the household


than other noninstitutionalized aged peop


general ly.


This proved to


be the


case


(Tab


Table


Number of Othe


in the Household for the Experi-ental


and Comparison Groups (Percentag


es) ::


Number of Others in House


Group


-i or


Total+


more


Experimental 1
(N = 71)


(8.5)


67.6
(76.1)


(98.7)


(100.1)


100.1
(103.1)


Compa r son
(N = 60)


(23.3)


50.0
(73.3)


16.7
(90.0)


00.1


(91 .7)


(100.1)


4..ePa ren t he2t i ca f igu


+Tota


percentages


res


denote cumulative


do not


equa


1 exactly


percentages.
00.0 due to


round no.


The findings for the comparison group compare favorably with the


national


averages


which show that


percent of the people


over


65 live


alone, 49.5 percent live with


one other in the house, and


27.5


percent


live with two or more other peop


e in the house (Aging, 13:1 and 16:20)


These figures also closely parallel those of Great Britian


where


22.2


per-


cent of the population over 65 live alone and 77.8 percent live with one

or more other persons in the house (Tunstall, 1966:48).

In contrast, the experimental group data showed 76.1 percent living


los












having two or more otlier persons living in the louse with them (26.7

percent for the comparisonrt group).


The fact that mnore than half again


as many of the experiment


group than the co:cprison group


were


living


as couples


was offset by t he


fact


that


;-ivc


time


as many of the comparison


group


subjects shared


their households


with four or more people.


Hence, on balance, it appears


that the assumption that


agedI


new,


ywed s


might genera 1ly have


a greater


number of other people in thie house than aged citizens living in various


other household arrangement


does


seem


to l0old up.


However, the big difference


was the


zero


column, which figured


proportionately larger in the role count tally.


comparison group living alone


The percentage of the


was nearly three times greater than the


percentage of the experimental group living alone, simple


peCatise


spouse


was counted


as another person in the household.


1EI. Ce,


t:;lougrh


the difference between the two groups


as to the number of others in the


house


was not statistically


gnificant,


it is


ear that there


was a


real variation noticeable


e, which must lead us to conclude that a dispro-


portionate number of the comparison group would rank low in the lifespace


measure f


score


and role count measures of engagement.


Results of


a Life Satisfaction Index


at least conceivable that


aged people


who undertake a new


marriage might have more vigor and vitality, and therefore be happier


1~ S1


- -~ -.- 1 1..A ~ 1~ ~ -


. 4. -


"I" ~


Iin 1~ I













zestful senior citizens tend to contract new marriages


and then


becoc,;e


even more happy


as a result


of it.


At any rate, the life


sat isfction


entity must be measured


a against


both groups if for no other


reason


than


to ascertain if it


can be excluded


as possible


cause


of bLas.


To deter-


mine if there


was a variance in satisfaction with life, both


groups


were


given the Life Satisfaction Index A (LSIA), as developed by iNeugarten


et al


(s ee


Appendix A).


The LSIA is divided into five subsections.


The first subject ion,


containing six items


, attempts to


mieasu re


mood tone.


scconI


I


section


, also containing


items, attempts to measure


zest


for living.


The third subscct ion,


Cons


ng of three items, attempts to


measure


congruence between desired


achieved goals.


The fourth subsection,


also consisting of three items, attempts to measure

The lest subsection, of only two items, attempts to


persona

measure


fort i tud,.


the subject's


self-concept


The total of all these subscales is


sunC pOSt.d


to reflect


a respondent's degree of life satisfaction.


Each question


on'the schedule


scored


one


point.


(See scoring key in the Appendix.)


This made


possible range for the mood tone subtota


f rom


zero


six points, the


zest


for life subtotal from


zero


to six, the congruence subtotal from


zero to three, the fortitude subtotal from zero to three, and the self-


concept subtotal from


zero


to two points.


This makes the maximum possibi


range for the total LSIA from


zero


to twenty points.


II r *p --- -IS*a


was











acceptable level of confidence.


Ho'..ver, there


.were


visi ble variations


in the data in


soma~l


of the distributions.


The mood tone results showed


that


percent of the comparison group fell into the two lower scored


columns in contrast to only 14.1 percent of the experin:en tal group while


39.5


parcer;t


of the exper imrental group scored in th- two higher columns


and only 26.6 percent of the comparison group reached those.columns

(Table 39).


Table


Mood Tone Subtotal of the LSIA for the Experimental


and Comparison Group


s (Percen


tact


- .- -~- -"~~LJ -,,~ ~: ~- --. -,.- -- --- --


Pood Tone Subtota


Group


Total+


Exper iia-n.ta 1
(i = 71)


2.8 11 3 15.5
(2.8) (14.1) (29.6)


11 3 19.7 25.h
,0.9) (60.6) (86.0)


1 0i .
(o100.1)


100.1
(100. 1)


Comperi son
(N = 60)


6.7 18.3 13.3 18.3 16.7 18.3
(6.7) (25.0) (38.3) (56.6) (73.3) (v1.6)


8.3
(99.9)


99.9
(959.9)


*-'Parenthetical figures denotec cumulative percentages.
+Total percentages do not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding.


The zest for life subtotal also demonstrated an observable dif-


fcrence


s since


more than twice


as many comparison


as experimental subjects


fell in the two lower scored colunnsi while 14.1 percent of the experinmn-r


tal subjects made the highest


score


column in contrast to only 8.3 percent


of the comparison subjects beinG positioned there (Table 40).










Table 40

Zest for Life Subtotal of the LSIA for the Experimental
and Comparison Groups (Percentages)::


Zest for Life Subtota


Group


Total+


Experimental
(N = 71)


2.8
(2.8)


4.2 19.7 23.9 21.1 !4.1
(7.0) (26.7) (50.6) (71.7) (85.8)


' i i.1


99.D


Compa ri son
(N = 60)


6.7 8.3 20.0 23.3 18.3 15.0
(6.7) (15.6) (35.0) (58.3) (76.6) (91.6)


8.3
(S93.)


99.-9
(99.9)


*Parenthetical figures denote cumulative percentages.
--+Total percentages do not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding.


The variances in the distributions on the congruence were not


1~


but the comparison group did have rore than twice as many respondents in

the lowest scored column than the experimental group and had fewer re-


spondents placed in the highest


scored


column than the experimental group


(Table 4,1).


Table 4


Congruence Subtotal of the LSIA for the Experimental
and Comparison Groups (Percentages)*


Group
0


Congruence Subtota


Total


Experimental+
(N=71)


21.1


(4.2)


(25.3)


36.6
(61.9)


38.0
(99.9)


q99.
(99.9)











The fortitude subtotal displayed a reversal in the trend in that


half again


as many experimental


as comparison subjects fell in the lowest


scored column while more than double the


amount t


of comparison subiocts


than expe r i ren tu subjects fell in


the highest scored column (Table 4\2).


Table 42

Fortitude Subtotal of the LSIA for the Experimental and
Comparison Groups (Percentages)*

- --


Group


Fortitude Subtota
---- --


Total


Expe r i men ta 1
(N = 71)


Comparison
(N = 60)


38.0
(38.0)

21.7
(21.7)


36.6
(74.6)

45.0
(66.7)


21. 1
(95.7)

23.3
(9o0.0)


(399.)

10.0
(100.0)


99.9
(99.9)

100.0
(10l0.0)


*Parenthet ica figures denote


+-Total p onae


do not equal


cumulat


'"'C


exact


percentages.
00.0 due to


rr\* tn djr:!ri


The self-concept resulted in rmore comparison than experimental


being placed in the highest scored column


and also in the lowest


as well,


Shence the weight of one balances the weight of the other (Table 43).


Table (3 .

Self-Concept Subtotal of the LSIA for the Experimental
and Comnparison Groups (Percentages)*


Self-Conceot Subtotal


G rouD


Total


Fnr ~r~r 7tli'


40) 1 1


cnn


LrtL j lil. I I *: IU~ II I 4 %. I -J I I.JC t3 S* StJa'


117


II:











Surprisingly, when all of the subsections were


suWmed


into the total


LSIA, there


was no visibly marked difference between the distributions


Table 44


Tota


LSIA


Score


for the Exoerimental and Comparison


Groups (Percentages)*


Total LSIA


Grouo


3-10


1-13


14-16


17-20


Total


Exper i P-lan ta 1
(a = 71)


23.9
(42.2)


(2.8)


31.0
(73.2)


19.7
(92.9)


7.0
(93.9)


99.9
(99.9)


Comrpar i son
( = 60)


(3.4)


15.0
(23.4)


23.3
(6.7)


33.3
(80.0).


13.3
(93.3)


6.7
(ioo~o


00.0


(100.0)


*'Parenthetical figures denote cumulative percentages.
__ Total percentages do not equal exactly 100.0 due to rounding.


ric


the distributions on the total LSIA produced no statistical


or visually significant relationship, it can be dismissed


as a variable


that cold produce a variance between aged newlyweds and other aged


people in general.


However, it should not be discounted that aged newly-


wed s


seem


to have a slightly higher mood tone, zest for life, and more


congruence between desired and achieved goa


s than other aged persons in


general but seem to have a lesser degree of fortitude.


And,


t is within


the realm of possibility that this lack of fortitude caused them to actively


(Ta~lt Itr:)












For purpose: of analysis and to determine if


a difference in life


satisfaction could' possibly have affected the subhypotheses and working


hypothese-s, the


se en


independent variables of those propositions (i.e.,


marital status, nc tber of children, number of siblings, age of spouse,


residence,


sex


race)


we re,


each in turn, held constant and ran


against each of tLh. LSIA subtotais and total.


tionships resulted


Eleven sign ficant rela-


A numbered topical overview of these results follows:


The nL.niber of living children variable produced


a significant


relationship in the experimental group on the mood tone subtotal.


The number of living siblings variable produced


a significant


relationship in the comparison group


on the total LSIA


score.


and 4)


The age of


spouse


variable produced a significant dif-


ference on the mocKd tone subtotal for both the experimental and comparison
groups.


sc'x


prison group on


variable produced


a significant difference in the conm-


self-concept subtotal.


(6, 7, 8,


10, and ll)


r a rc:


variable produced significant


differences in the experimental group


life subtotal, fortitude


on the mood tone subtotal,


subtotal, and the total LSIA score


zest


in both


groups combined


seems


life satisfaction


C. the mood tone subtotal and the fortitude subtotal.

from the above that the most discriminating measure of


was


mood tone and the demographic variable most signifi-


cant in affecting life satisfaction


was


race.


As regards


race,


it appears that Negroes manifest, to


a noticeable


degree,


a somewhat lesser amount of life satisfaction.


The experimental


group contained


black subjects or 54.9 percent, whereas the comparison


nrnrtn hnrt


h 1 rr-fn rpc nnAnrnn c nr


gR~


nprrP rlt




Full Text
xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID EJCJBHA48_6Z1AJ9 INGEST_TIME 2011-08-09T13:39:36Z PACKAGE AA00002234_00001
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES



PAGE 2

7KH (IIHFW RI 1HZ 0DUULDJHV $PRQJ WKH $JHG 8SRQ WKH 'LVHQJDJHPHQW 3URFHVV L E\ 3$8/ :$<1( 61<'(5 $ ',66(57$7,21 35(6(17(' 72 7+( *5$'8$7( &281&,/ 2) 7+( 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$ ,1 3$57,$/ )8/),//0(17 2) 7+( 5(48,5(0(176 )25 7+( '2&725 2) 3+,/2623+< '(*5(( 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 3

$&.12:/('*0(176 7DVNV DUH PDGH SRVVLEOH DQG ZRUWKZKLOH E\ SXUSRVHIXO FRRSHUDWLRQ ,Q DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI WKHLU NHHQ GHGLFDWLRQ YDOXDEOH LQVWUXFWLRQ DQG FRQVWUXFWLYH FULWLFLVPV ZRXOG OLNH DW WKLV WLPH WR UHFRUG WKH LQn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nV 6RFLRORJ\ 'HSDUWPHQW IRU WKHLU YHU\ KHOSIXO VXJJHVWLRQV :KLOH DFNQRZOHGJLQJ WKLV DLG VWLOO UHWDLQ IXOO UHVSRQVLELOLW\ IRU DQ\ DQG DOO HUURUV LQ WKH PDQXVFULSW

PAGE 4

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

PAGE 5

7$%/( 2) &217(176 FRQWLQXHGf $33(1',&(6 $ ,17(59,(: 6&+('8/( % 48$/,7$7,9( $1$/<6,6 2) $ /,)( 6$7,6)$&7,21 ,1'(; $ 0(7+2'2/2*,&$/ 127( 5()(5(1&(6 %,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+

PAGE 6

/,67 2) 7$%/(6 7DEOH 3DJH 3HUFHQWDJH RI $OO 0DUULDJHV LQ :KLFK WKH *URRP %ULGH RU %RWK:HUH
PAGE 7

/,67 2) 7$%/(6 FRQWLQXHGf 7DEOH 3DJH 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQWV RI WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf D 7KH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUHV RI WKH ([SHULn PHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7KH /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUHV RI WKH 0DUULHG DQG 8QPDUULHG 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQ WDJHVf 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQWV RI WKH 0DUULHG DQG 8QPDUULHG 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH &RPSDULVRQ *URXS 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUHV RI WKH 0DUULHG DQG 8QPDUULHG 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH &RPSDULVRQ *URXS 3HUFHQ WDJHVf L 7KH /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUHV RI WKH 0DOH DQG )HPDOH 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH ([SHULPHQWDO *URXS 3HUFHQWDJHVf ,% 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQWV RI WKH 0DOH DQG )HPDOH 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH ([SHULPHQWDO *URXS 3HUFHQWDJHVf r 7KH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUHV RI WKH 0DOH DQG )HPDOH 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH ([SHULPHQWDO *URXS 3HUFHQWDJHVf ? 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOGUHQ LQ WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7RWDO /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOGUHQ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULn VRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW E\ 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOGUHQ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH E\ 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOGUHQ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQ WDJHVf 7KH 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6LEOLQJV LQ WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf Y

PAGE 8

/,67 2) 7$%/(6 FRQWLQXHGf 7DEOH 7RWDO /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6LEOLQJV IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULn VRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW E\ WKH 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6LEOLQJV IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVf U U '2 7KH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH E\ WKH 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6LEOLQJV IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7RWDO /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ 5XUDO DQG 8UEDQ 5HVLGHQFH IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW E\ 5XUDO DQG 8UEDQ 5HVLGHQFH IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH E\ 5XUDO DQG 8UEDQ 5HVLGHQFH IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7RWDO /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ $JH RI 6SRXVH IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQ WDJHVf 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW E\ $JH RI 6SRXVH IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 6HSDUDWHO\ DQG &RPELQHG 3HUFHQ WDJHVf 7KH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH E\ $JH RI 6SRXVH IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVf A 7KH /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ 5DFH IRU $OO 6XEMHFWV 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQWV E\ 5DFH IRU $OO 6XEMHFWV 3HUFHQ WDJHVf YL

PAGE 9

/,67 2) 7$%/(6 FRQWLQXHGf 7DEOH KH 3HUFHLYHG /L IHVSDFH 6FRUH IRU $OO 6XEMHFWV 3HUFHQ WDJHVf $JHV RI WKH 5HVSRQGHQWV IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQ WDJHVf 1XPEHU RI 2WKHUV LQ WKH +RXVHKROG IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf 0RRG 7RQH 6XEWRWDO RI WKH /6, $ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf =HVW IRU /LIH 6XEWRWDO RI WKH /6$ IRU WKH ([SHULn PHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf &RQJUXHQFH 6XEWRWDO RI WKH /6,$ IRU WKH ([SHULn PHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf )RUWLWXGH 6XEWRWDO RI WKH /6,$ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf 6HOI&RQFHSW 6XEWRWDO RI WKH /6,$ IRU WKH ([SHULn PHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7RWDO /6, $ 6FRUH IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULn VRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7KH /HQJWK RI 7LPH WKH &RRSHUDWLQJ 1HZO\ZHGV .QHZ (DFK 2WKHU %HIRUH 7KH\ 0DUULHG 1XPEHU DQG 3H UFHQ WDJHf YL

PAGE 10

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n GXUDWLRQ 7KHVH VXEMHFWV UHVLGHG LQ D QLQHFRXQW\ UHJLRQ LQ QRUWKFHQWUDO ULRULGD $ FRPSDUDWLYH VDPSOH RI ROGHU R]UARQV ZDV VHOHFWHG IURP WKH VDPH UHJLRQ ZLWKRXW UHJDUG WR WKHLU PDUcWDO VWDWXV 7KH H[SHULPHQWDO VDPSOH FRQVLVWHG RI VXEMHFWV DQG WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS QXPEHUHG 0RVW RI WKH GDWDZHUHREWDLQHG LQ WKH KRPHV RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV E\ PHDQV RI DQ LQWHUYLHZ VFKHGXOH DGPLQLVWHUHG E\ WKH LQYHVWLJDWRU 7KH VFKHGXOH LQFRUSRUDWHG WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI VRFLHWDO HQJDJHPHQW KH OLI VSDFH PHDVXUH I VFRUH D UDOH FRXQW DQG &SHUFHLYHG LaHVSDFH VFRUH ,Q DGGLWLRQ LF FRQWDLQHG D OLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ LQGH[ TXHVWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ

PAGE 11

EDFNJURXQG FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG D VHULHV RI RSHQHQGHG LWHPV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH UHVSRQGHQWVn PDULWDO H[SHULHQFHV 'DWD DOVR ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP WKH PDUUL DJHLFHQVH DSSOLFDWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO SRSXODWLRQ 7KH FHQWUDO K\SRWKHVLV DUJXHG WKDW PDUULDJHV FRQWUDFWHG ODWH LQ OLIH VHUYH WR UHWDUG WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV 7ZR VXEK\SRWKHVHV ZHUH IRUPXODWHG f IHPDOH VXEMHFWV LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS ZLOO EH OHVV GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ WKH PDOHV LQ WKDW JURXS f PDUULHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS ZLOO EH OHVV GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ XQPDUULHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKDW JURXS )LYH ZRUNLQJ K\SRWKHV HV DQG ILYH FRUROODULHV ZHUH FRQVWUXFWHG WR WHVW WKH LQIOXHQFH RI QXPEHU RI FKLOGUHQ QXPEHU RI VLEOLQJV UXUDO XUEDQ UHVLGHQFH DJH RI VSRXVH DQG UDFH 7KH FRUROODULHV VWDWHG WKDW LI VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH IRXQG IRU DQ\ RI WKH ILYH YDULDEOHV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZRXOG EH PRUH SURQRXQFHG LQ WKH H[SHULn PHQWDO WKDQ LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS :KLOH QRQH RI WKH K\SRWKHVHV ZDV VXEVWDQWLDWHG RQ D WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW DW DQ DFFHSWDEOH OHYHO RI FRQILGHQFH WKH GDWD GLG OHQG VHPH VXSSRUW WR WKH K\SRWKHVHV GHDOLQJ ZLWK WKH LQIOXHQFH RI EHLQJ QHZO\ZHG EHLQJ PDUULHG KDYLQJ PRUH FKLOGUHQ KDYLQJ PRUH VLEn OLQJV KDYLQJ D \RXQJ VSRXVH DQG OLYLQJ LQ D FLW\ RQ GHOD\LQJ WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV /LNHZLVH WKH FRUROODULHV IDLOHG WR ILQG VXSSRUW RQ DOO WKUHH PHDVXUHV DW DQ DSSURSULDWH FRQILGHQFH OHYHO 1HYHUWKHn OHVV WZR RI WKH FRUR DULHV FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI QXPEHU RI VLEOLQJV DQG DJH RI VSRXVH WR GLVHQJDJHPHQW UHFHLYHG VHPH VXSSRUW IW D F H DQG VH[ GLG QRW DSSHDU WR DIIHFW WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV 2QH [

PAGE 12

RI WKH FRUROODULHV FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH QXPEHU RI FKLOGUHQ ZDV ERUQ RXW LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RSSRVLWH IURP WKDW SUHGLFWHG 7KH ILQGLQJV RI WKLV VWXG\ DSSHDU WR XQGHUVFRUH WKH QHFHVVLW\ IRU FRQWLQXHG UHILQHPHQW RI WKH WKHRU\ RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW 6XFFHVVIXO DJLQJ UHPDLQV D UDWKHU HOXVLYH FRQFHSW DQG QHLWKHU DFWLYLW\ QRU GLV QJDJHPHQW VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG WKH VROH LQGLFDWRU RI LW LnHDVXUHV RI WKH DJLQJ SURFHVV VXFK DV WKH OLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ LQGH[ PD\ QHHG WR EH UHYLVHG DQG VXEMHFWHG WR IXUWKHU WHVWLQJ RQ GLYHUVH SRSXODWLRQV )XWXUH UHVHDUFK GHDOLQJ ZLWK WKH LQIOXHQFH RI ROGHU PDUULDJHV RQ GLVHQJDJHPHQW ZRXOG SURILW IURP XVH RI WKH ORQJLWXGLQDO GHVLJQ &RPn SDULVRQ RI VLPLODULWLHV DQG GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ PDUULDJHV FRQWUDFWHG DW \RXQJHU DQG ROGHU DJHV FRXOG H[WHQG RXU NQRZOHGJH LQ WKH ILHOGV RI ERWK VRFLDO JHURQWRORJ\ DQG VRFLRORJ\ RI WKH IDPLO\

PAGE 13

&+$37(5 21( ,1752'8&7,21 1DWXUH DQG 3XUSRVH RI WKH 6WXG\ b ,Q WKLV FRXQWU\ DQG VRPH RWKHUV ERWK WKH QXPEHU DQG WKH SURSRUn WLRQ RI ROGHU SHRSOH LQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ KDYH EHHQ ULVLQJ n7KLV LQFUHDVH LV GXH WR D YDULHW\ RI IDFWRUV 6XFK WKLQJV DV LPSURYHPHQWV LQ VDQLn WDWLRQ PLUDFOH GUXJV EHWWHU GLHWV QHZ VXUJLFDO WHFKQLTXHV ZLGHn VSUHDG KHDOWK SURJUDPV DQG KLJKHU OHYHOV RI OLYLQJ KDYH VXFFHHGHG LQ NHHSLQJ PRUH SHRSOH DOLYH DOO DORQJ WKH DJH FRQWLQXXP :KHQ VXFK GHYHORSn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f 7KLV GUDPDWLF GHPRJUDSKLF FKDQJH KDV JHQHUDWHG D KLJK GHJUHH RI f f LQWHUGLVFLSLLQDU\ LQWHUHVW LQ WKH UHODWLYHO\ QHZ ILHOG RI VRFLDO JHURQWRORJ\ A7KH ILUVW XVDJH RI WKH WHUP VRFLDO JHURQWRORJ\ ZDV E\ 5REHUW +DYLJKXUVW DQG 5XWK $OEUHFKW LQ WKH 3UHIDFH RI WKHLU ERRN 2OGHU 3HRSOH ,Yff

PAGE 14

$ UHYLHZ RI WKH H[LVWLQJ OLWHUDWXUH UHYHDOV WKDW PRVW RI WKH UHVHDUFK RQ WKH SUREOHPV RI WKH DJHG KDV GHDOW ZLWK GHDWK EHUHDYHn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n PHQW SURFHVV 7KHRUHWLFDO )UDPH RI 5HIHUHQFH &XPPLQJ 'HDQ +RZHOO DQG 0F&DIIUH\ IRUPXODWHG WKH WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUN GHVFULELQJ WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV tff 7KLV SURFHVV LV PRVW RIWHQ WKRXJKW RI DV D PXWXDO ZLWKGUDZDO ZKLFK WDNHV SODFH EHWZHHQ DJLQJ SHUVRQV DQG RWKHUV LQ WKH VRFLDO V\VWHP 7KH VHYHUDO GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH SURFHVV DORQJ ZLWK LOOXVWUDWLRQV ZLOO EH SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH QH[W FKDSWHU ZKHUH WKHVH DVSHFWV DUH RSHUDWLRQDL]HG ,Q WKLV RYHUYLHZ LW LV VXIILFLHQW IRU LW WR EH VHHQ DV DQ LQHYLWDEOH

PAGE 15

PXWXDO ZLWKGUDZDO UHVXOWLQJ LQ UHGXFHG LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH DJLQJ SHUVRQ DQG RWKHUV LQ WKH VRFLDO V\VWHP $Q ROG SHUVRQ EHFRPHV OHVV LQYROYHG LQ WKH OLIH DURXQG KLP WKDQ ZKHQ KH ZDV \RXQJHU DQG KLV ZLWKGUDZDO PD\ EH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ DQ LQn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b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n JDJHPHQW b

PAGE 16

DFWLYLWLHV WKDW FHQWHU RQ VHOI &XPPLQJ DQG +HQU\ DQG Af /DVWO\ ZH VKRXOG VHH VRPH SDWWHUQV RI SHUVRQDOLW\ DOWHULQJ WR DFFRPn PRGDWH WKLV LQFUHDVHG LQYROYHPHQW ZLWK VHOI 7KH ODVW LV VHHQ DV D FLUFXODU SURFHGXUH WKDW ERWK FDXVHV DQG LV WKH UHVXOW RI WKH ILUVW WZR FKDQJHV 7KH ROGHU SHUVRQ LV FRQFHLYHG DV EHLQJ DW WKH FHQWHU RI D QHWZRUN RI VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQV DQG DV KH DJHV KLV VRFLDO OLIH FRQn VWULFWV DQG KH H[SHULHQFHV D FXUWDLOPHQW RI LQYROYHPHQW LQ WKH VRFLDO V\VWHP 'LVHQJDJHPHQW LV YLHZHG DV D SURFHVV ZKLFK LV EHQHILFLDO WR ERWK WKH LQGLYLGXDO DQG VRFLHW\ 7KHUH ZHUH WKUHH EDVLF SRLQWV LQ WKH RULJLQDO ZRUN E\ &XPPLQJ r DQG DVVRFLDWHV 7KH\ VWDWHG WKDW WKH SURFHVV RI ZLWKGUDZDO LV PRGDO IRU WKH DJHG WKDW GLVHQJDJHPHQW LV ERWK LQWULQVLF DQG LQHYLWDEOH DQG WKDW XQGHUJRLQJ WKH SURFHVV LV D FRQGLWLRQ RI VXFFHVVIXO DJLQJ &.HQL\A LQ D ODWHU ZRUN UHGHILQHG WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV DV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ LQHYLWDEOH EXW VWLOO PDLQWDLQHG WKDW WKH HTXLOLEULXP WKDW H[LVWHG LQ PLGGOH OLIH EHWZHHQ WKH LQGLYLGXDO DQG VRFLHW\ JLYHV ZD\ JUDGXDOO\ WR D QHZ HTXLOLEULXP FKD UDH WHUL]HG E\ JUHDWHU GLVWDQFH f :LOOLDPV DQG :LUWKV f DJUHHG WKDW WKH SURFHVV LV LQWULQVLF WR DJLQJ EXW SUREDEO\ QRW LQHYLWDEOH 7KH\ VWDWHG WKDW GLVHQJDJHPHQW LV EHVW GHILQHG DV D SURFHVV RI PXWXDO VHYHULQJ RI WLHV EHWZHHQ WKH LQGLn YLGXDO DQG WKH VRFLDO PLOLHX LQ ZKLFK KH OLYHV 7KH SURFHVV LQYROYHV D UHGXFHG QRUPDWLYH FRQWURO E\ WKH V\VWHP DQG UHGXFHG REOLJDWLRQV WR LW 5RVH DQG 3HWHUVRQ f GHILQHG WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV DV D SUHSDUDWLRQ IRU GHDWK DQG PDLQWDLQHG WKDW WKH SURFHVV LV

PAGE 17

D XQLYHUVDO WKRXJK LW PD\ YDU\ LQ GHJUHH RI JUDGXDOLW\ IURP RQH FXOWXUH WR DQRWKHU DQG LW PD\ QRW EH LQHYLWDEOH IRU DOO SHRSOH LQ HDFK VRFLHW\ 7ZR UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV 7KRPSVRQ DQG 6WUHLE DQG 0DGGR[ f HYHQ TXHVWLRQHG WKDW GLVHQJDJHPHQW ZDV D PDUN RI VXFFHVVn IXO DJLQJ 0DGGR[ FRQFOXGHG WKDW GLVHQJDJHPHQW DV D FRUUHODWH RI DJLQJ ZDV IRXQG PXFK LQRUH IUHTXHQWO\ LQ WKH YHU\ DGYDQFHG DJH OHYHOVD WLPH ZKHQ SK\VLFDO DQG PHQWDO GHFOLQH LV PRVW OLNHO\ 7KRPSVRQ DQG 6WUHLE DOVR IRXQG WKDW GLVHQJDJHPHQW ZRUNHG RQO\ IRU IYHU\ ROG FDWHJRULHV E\ YHU\ ROG WKH\ PHDQW \HDUV ROG RU ROGHU 7ZR DUWLFOHV .DSQLFN *RRGPDQ DQG &RUQZHOO DQG *OHQQ DQG *ULPHV f FOHDUO\ GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW QRW DOO VRFLDO LQYROYHPHQW GHFUHDVHV ZLWK DJH 7KH DXWKRUV SURYHG WKDW SROLWLFDO LQWHUHVWV DQG DFWLYLWLHV LQFUHDVH ZLWK DJH 9L GHEHFN DQG .QR[ Af FKDOOHQJHG WKH PRGDOLW\ RI GLVn HQJDJHPHQW ,Q D ORQJLWXGLQDO VWXG\ D SDUW RI ZKLFK PHDVXUHG WKH LQYROYHPHQW OHYHO RI WKH VXEMHFWV WKH\ IRXQG WKDW SHUFHQWRI WKH RYHU QRQSDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DOVR QRQSDUWLFLSDQWV ILYH \HDUV HDUOLHU DQG SHUFHQW RI WKH \HDUROG JURXS DQG ROGHU ZKR ZHUH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH FODVVLILHG DV SDUWLFLSDQWV ILYH \HDUV HDUOLHU 7KH SDUWLFLSDWLRQ YDULDEOHV HPSOR\HG ZHUH FKXUFK DQG FOXE DFWLYLWLHV SXEOLF PHHWLQJV DWWHQGHG WLPH VSHQW f UHDGLQJ DQG SROLWLFDO DFWLYLW\ 7KLV ILQGLQJ VHHPV WR LQGLFDWH WKDW D SHUVRQnV DGMXVWPHQW LQ WKH ODWWHU SDUW RI KLV OLIHF\FOH ZLOO PHUHO\ UHIOHFW D FRQWLQXDQFH RI D OLIH VW\OH GHYHORSHG LQ IRUPHU \HDUV

PAGE 18

$OWKRXJK WKH HYLGHQFH SUHVHQWHG DERYH GRHV DSSHDU WR WKURZ GRXEW RQ VRPH RI WKH EDVLF WHQHWV RI WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW WKHRU\ WKHUH GRHV VHHP WR EH JHQHUD@ DJUHHPHQW WKDW WKH SURFHVV DW OHDVW GRHV H[LVW 0RVW VRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV DUH HYHQ ZLOOLQJ WR JUDQW WKH PXWXDOLW\ RI GLVHQJDJHn PHQW &HUWDLQO\ JLYHQ D JHQHUDOL]HG QDWXUDO UHGXFWLRQ LQ HQHUJ\ OHYHOV DJHG LQGLYLGXDOV VKRXOG PDNH ZLOOLQJ DFFRPSOLFHV LQ WKH SURFHVV RI WKHLU VHSDUDWLRQ IURP VRFLHWDO LQYROYHPHQW (YHQ WKH RSSRQHQWV RI GLVHQJDJHn PHQW WKHRU\ DFFHSW WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WKH VRFLRFXOWXUDO IRUFHV ZKLFK DUH b JHQHUDOO\ DJDLQVW D KLJK OHYHO RI SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ VRFLHW\ E\ WKH H GHU\ f L +HQFH DQ LQWHOOHFWXDO FKDOOHQJH LV FOHDUO\ SUHVHQW WR HPSLULFDOO\ GHILQH WKLV PXWXDO ZLWKGUDZDO PHDVXUH WR ZKDW H[WHQW LW LV RFFXUULQJ DQG RXWOLQH VLWXDWLRQV RWKHU WKDQ LQFUHDVHG DJLQJf WKDW HLWKHU VSHHG XS RU UHWDUG WKH SURFHVV 1DYLJKXUVW f SRVLWHG WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW WKHRU\ DJDLQVW WKH DFWLYLW\ WKHRU\ 7KH DFWLYLW\ WKHRU\ GHYHORSHG WKURXJK WKH \HDUV E\ &DYDQ f %HDUG f $OEUHFKW f 3KLOLSV f %XUJHVV f DQG :LOOLHV HWBDO f K\SRWKHVL]HG WKDW D KLJK OHYHO RI DFWLYLW\ DQG VRFLDO LQYROYHPHQW LV WKH PRUH GHVLUDEOH DGDSWDWLRQ IRU DJHG SHRSOH WR PDNH LQ VRFLHW\ 1DYLJKXUVW VWDWHG WKDW WKH DFWLYLW\ WKHRU\ LV IDYRUHG E\ WKH V\PEROLF LQWHUDFW LRQ L VWV DQG VRFLDO SUDFWLWLRQHUV ZKR VXJJHVW WKDW SHRSOH VKRXOG f f PDLQWDLQ WKH DFWLYLWLHV DQG DWWLWXGHV RI PLGGOH DJH DV ORQJ DV SRVVLEOH DQG WKDW ROG SHRSOH RQO\ EHFRPH GLVLQYROYHG DJDLQVW WKHLU ZLOO DQG LQ

PAGE 19

VR GRLQJ EHFRPH WKH SDVVLYH YLFWLPV RI VRFLHW\ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW WKHRU\ LV IDYRUHG E\ IXQFWLRQDOLVW WKHRUHWLFLDQV ZKR YLHZ LW DV FRQVWUXFWLYH DQG QHFHVVDU\ IRU WKH FRQWLQXLW\ RI VRFLHW\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH\ VHH WKH DJHG DV FRRSHUDWLYH DFWRUV LQ WKH SURFHVV 7KHUHIRUH WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW WKHRULVWV PDLQWDLQ WKDW GLVHQJDJHn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f H[DPLQHG UHPDUULDJH LQ DOO DJH JURXSV KHQFH ZDV QRW SULPDULO\ IRFXVHG RQ QHZ PDUULDJHV DPRQJ WKH DJHG KRZHYHU VWDWLVWLFV ZH UH JDWKHUHG IRU DGYDQFHG DJH JURXSV ZKLFK VKRXOG JLYH VRPH LQVLJKWV RQ ZKDW FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WR H[SHFW LQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ VHOHFWHG IRU WKLV SURMHFW %HUQDUG IRXQG

PAGE 20

7KDW WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI DOO PDUULDJHV WKDW DUH UHPDUULDJHV LQFUHDVHV ZLWK DJH EHFDXVH WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI SHUVRQV ZKR KDYH EHHQ SUHYLRXVO\ PDUULHG LQFUHDVHV ZLWK DJH 7KDW PRVW RI WKH SUHYLRXV PDUULDJHV LQ WKH \RXQJ WR HDUO\ PLGGOHDJH JURXSLQJV HQGHG LQ GLYRUFH ZKLOH WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKRVH LQ WKH ODWHPLGGOH WR ROGDJH JURXSLQJV HQGHG LQ GHDWK 7KDW DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RQHWKLUG RI WKH ZRPHQ RYHU ZKR UHPDUU\ PDUU\ \RXQJHU PHQ ZKLOH RQO\ DERXW SHUFHQW RI WKHnPHQ RYHU ZKR UHPDUU\ GR VR ZLWK ROGHU ZRPHQ $Q LPSRUWDQW ZRUN GRQH LQ WKH DUHD LV UHSRUWHG LQ D 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &RQQHFWLFXW PRQRJUDSK 0F.DLQtff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

PAGE 21

QR UHVHDUFK WR GDWH ZLWK DJHG QHZO\ZHGV DV VXEMHFWV DQG EDVHG VROHO\ LQ D JHURQWRORJLFDO IUDPH RI UHIHUHQFH ,W LV WUXH KRZHYHU WKDW LQ WKH 0F.DLQ VWXG\ f WKH HIIHFW RI WKH UHPDUULDJHV RQ WKH SURFHVV RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW ZDV LQFLn GHQWDOO\ WHVWHG 7KH GDWD VHHPHG WR LQGLFDWH WKDW PDUULDJHV LQ WKH ODWHU \HDUV FRXQWHU WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV LQ IDPLOLDO UHODWLRQVKLSV EXW WKH UHGXFWLRQ RI RWKHU UROHV LQ VRFLHW\ FRQWLQXHV +RZHYHU WKH UHVXOWV ZHUH LQFRQFOXVLYH %RWK WKH %HUQDUG DQG 0F.DLQ VWXGLHV H[FOXGHG DJHG VXEMHFWV ZKR ZHUH PDUU\LQJ IRU WKH ILUVW WLPH ,W LV WUXH WKDW QHYHUPDUULHG VXEn MHFWV ZRXOG KDYH QR UHOHYDQFH LQ VWXGLHV VHHNLQJ WR GHVFULEH WKH NH\V WR VXFFHVVIXO UHPDUULDJH +RZHYHU HYHQ DJHG EDFKHORUV DQG VSLQVWHUV EHFRPLQJ QHZO\ZHGV KDYH WR FRSH ZLWK GLVHQJDJHPHQW VR WKH\ ZLOO QRW EH H[FOXGHG IURP WKH SUHVHQW LQYHVWLJDWLRQ 0F.DLQ Raf VWURQJO\ FRQWHQGHG WKDW WKHUH LV D VRFLHWDO HWKLF DJDLQVW HOGHUO\ SHRSOH PDUU\LQJ DQG WKDW WKH FKLOGUHQ RI WKH HOGHUO\ DUH YHU\ PXFK RSSRVHG WR WKH UHPDUULDJH RI WKHLU SDUHQWV +RZHYHU WKH PLPHRJUDSKHG GDWD WDEOHV WKDW KLV ZRUN ZDV EDVHG RQ FOHDUO\ LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH FKLOGUHQ RI ERWK WKH EULGHV DQG WKH JURRPV HQFRXUDJHG WKH PDUULDJH RI WKHLU SDUHQWV 0F.DLQnV 5HWLUHPHQW 0DUULDJH 6WDWLVWLFDO 7DEOHV Aff 0RUHRYHU %HUQDUG f VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKURXJKRXW VRFLHW\ WKHUH H[LVWV DQ LQVWLWXWLRQDOL]LQJ f f RI UHPDUULDJH LQ DOO DJH JURXSV 2QH UHDVRQ WKDW PRUH ROGHU SHRSOH DUH UHPDUU\LQJ PLJKW EH WKDW WKH YLWDOLW\ RI WKH DJHG SHRSOH RI WRGD\

PAGE 22

LV JUHDWHU WKDW WKDW RI WKRVH RI WKH SDVW 7KH DGYDQFHV LQ PHGLFLQH KDYH GRQH PXFK PRUH WKDQ FUHDWH DQ LQFUHDVH LQ OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ 0HZ GUXJV DQG VXUJLFDO WHFKQLTXHV KDYH EURXJKW DERXW EHWWHU KHDOWK DQG LPn SURYHG SK\VLFDO YLJRU DPRQJ WKH ROGHU SRSXODWLRQ LQ DGGLWLRQ WR H[WHQGn LQJ WKHLU OLIHVSDQ 5RVH DQG 3HWHUVRQ t
PAGE 23

7DEOH DOVR LQGLFDWHV WKDW PDUULDJHV DPRQJ WKH HOGHUO\ ZHUH RQ UHDVH GXULQJ WKH \HDUV VKRZQ 8SWRGDWH GDWD ZHUH VRXJKW WR DVFHUWDLQ ZKHWKHU RU QRW WKLV WUHQG FRQWLQXHG ([DFWO\ FRPSDUDEOH GDWD ZHUH QRW DYDLODEOH EXW E\ XVLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWDLQHG LQ WKH 9LWDO 6WDWLVWLFV RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG f LW ZDV A GHWHUPLQHG 7DEOH f WKDW WKH WUHQG WRZDUG LQFUHDVLQJ LQFLGHQFH RI PDUUDLJH DPRQJ WKH HOGHUO\ RYHU WLPH GLG QRW FRQWLQXH EH\RQG L 7DEOH 3HUFHQWDJH RI $OO 0DUULDJHV LQ :KLFK WKH %ULGH RU *URRP 9IHUH
PAGE 24

7DEOH VKRZV D WHQGHQF\ WRZDUG LQFUHDVH XS XQWLO WKHQ D D SODWHDX DSSHDUV EHWZHHQ DQG DQG LW VHHPV WKDW DQ DFWXDO GHFUHDVH KDV RFFXUUHG VLQFH 7KH 8 6 9LWDO 6WDWLVWLFV DQG r ] GLG JLYH WKH DEVROXWH QXPEHU RI DJHG PDUULDJHV IRU WKH ODWHVW IRXU \HDUV IRU ZKLFK GDWD DUH DYDLODEOH ,Q ZRPHQ RYHU JRW PDUULHG DQG PHQ RYHU JRW PDUULHG IRU D WRWDO RI ,Q WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ ILJXUHV ZHUH ZRPHQ DQG PHQ IRU D WRWDO RI ,Q i LW ZDV YRPHQ DQG PHQ IRU D WRWDO ,Q LW ZDV ZRPHQ DQG UQHQ IRU D WRWDO %RWK WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW DQG DFWLYLW\ WKHRULVWV SRLQW RXW WKH JUDGXDO UROH ORVV RI ROGHU SHRSOH LQ WKHLU FRQWLQXDOO\ FRQWUDFWLQJ ‘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n PHQW $ PDQ ZKR ZDV D IDWKHU DW DJH ZLOO QRW ORVH WKDW VWDWXV DW DJH RU %XW WKH UROH RU UROHV QRUPDOO\ DWWULEXWHG WR WKDW VWDWXV ZLOO FHUWDLQO\ FKDQJH DQG HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH ODWHU \HDUV WKH WDVNV LQKHUHQW LQ WKDW UROH ZLOO EH UHGXFHG

PAGE 25

%XW LQ WKLV VWXG\ VXFK GL VHUcPL QDWLRQ ZLOO QRW EH QHFHVVDU\ IRU L Q DJHG SHUVRQ ZKR JHWV PDUULHG DVVXPHV D QHZ VWDWXV WKDW RI VSRXVH DQG WKHUHE\ E\ GHILQLWLRQ DVVXPHV D QHZ DQG DGGLWLRQDO UROH RU UROHVf DVVLJQHG WR WKDW VWDWXV 7KLV UROH JDLQ WKHQ WKHRUHWLFDc\ QLJKW WHQG WR KROG RII GLVHQJDJHPHQW 0RUHRYHU DQ LQGLYLGXDOnV OLIH VSDFH RU WKH H[WHQW RI WKH ZRUOG UHOHYDQW WR KLP LV DOVR DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK GLVHQJDJHPHQW .XUW %DFN DQG .HQQHWK *HUJHQ LQ 6LPSVRQ DQG 0F.LQQH\ RRff SRLQW RXW WKDW DQ LQGLYLGXDO ZKR PDUULHV PD\ HIIHFWLYHO\ GRXEOH KLV OLIH VSDFH $LO KLV PDWHn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

PAGE 26

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n HQJDJHPHQW DV VWDWHG E\ WKH WKHRU\ JXLGLQJ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ GRHV QRW EHJLQ XQWLO DIWHU PLGGOH DJH

PAGE 27

RI D QHZ PDUULDJH IRU WKH SXUSRVH RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV RQH WKDW KDV EHHQ LQ H[LVWHQFH IRU OHVV WKDQ ILYH \HDUV ,Q DGGLWLRQ LW ZDV GHFLGHG WKDW WKH PDUULDJH VKRXOG EH DW OHDVW VL[ PRQWKV ROG WR LQVXUH WKDW VRPH WLPH IRU DGMXVWPHQW KDG LQWHUYHQHG EHWZHHQ WKH ZHGGLQJ FHUHPRQ\ DQG WKH LQWHUYLHZ 6LQFH WKH LQWHUYLHZLQJ WRRN SODFH GXULQJ WKH VXPPHU RI WKH RSWLPDO FKRLFH ZDV DOO WKRVH PDUULDJHV UHFRUGHG DW WKH FRXUWKRXVH LQ $ODFKXD &RXQW\ )ORULGD IURP WR t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n VWDQFHV :LNOHU DQG *UH\ ,f 9LNOHU DQG *UH\ PDLQWDLQHG WKDW SULRU WR D ZLGRZ ZKR UHPDUULHG ORVW DOO KHU VRFLDO VHFXULW\ EHQHILWV IURP KHU GHFHDVHG KXVEDQG DQG WKDW ZDV WKH VDOLHQW UHDVRQ ZK\ PDQ\ VHQLRU FLWL]HQV GLG QRW OHJLWLPDWL]H WKHLU XQLRQV 7KHVH DXWKRUV UHSRUWHG WKDWPDLQO\ WKURXJK WKHLU HIIRUWV WKH IHGHUDO ODZ ZDV FKDQJHG LQ DQG WKDW QRZ DQ HOGHUO\ SHUVRQ FDQ UHPDUU\ ZLWKn RXW ORVLQJ DQ\ RI WKH EHQHILWV IURP WKH FRYHUHG HPSOR\PHQW RI D GHFHDVHG VSRXVH

PAGE 28

6LQFH WKH GDWD DOUHDG\ SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ GLG QRW VKRZ DQ LQFUHDVH LQ IRUPDOO\ RIILFLDWHG PDUULDJH FHUHPRQLHV VLQFH EXW LQVWHDG LQGLFDWHG D VOLJKW GHFUHDVH LQ WKH WUHQG WKH UHVHDUFKHU FKHFNHG WKH SUHVHQW 2OG $JH 6XUYLYRUV DQG 'LVDELOLW\ ,QVXUDQFH UHJXOD WLRQV $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWDLQHG LQ WKH 6RFLDO 6HFXULW\ &ODLPV 0DQXDO -XO\ f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nV FKHFN LV OHVV WKDQ SHUFHQW RI KHU GHFHDVHG VSRXVHnV FKHFN RU LI VKH PDUULHV D QRQUHFLSLHQW RI VRFLDO VHFXULW\ WKHUH ZLOO EH D QHW ORVV RI LQFRPH 7KLV GRHV QRW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WKH SRVVLEO\ VLPLODU QHJDWLYH FLUFXPVWDQFHV WKDW PLJKW WDNH SODFH XQGHU WKH PDQ\ SULYDWH SHQVLRQ SODQV WKH YDULRXV IHGHUDO VWDWH DQG ORFDO FLYLO VHUYLFH UHWLUHPHQW

PAGE 29

IXQGV RU ODERU XQLRQ SODQV ZKHQ D VXUYLYLQJ EHQHILFLDU\ UHPDUULHV ,W DOVR GRHV QRW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI D GHFHGHQWn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

PAGE 30

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n JDJHPHQW SURFHVV WKHQ LW IROORZV WKDW PDUULHG DJHG SHRSOH LQ JHQHUDO ZLOO EH OHVV GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ XQPDUULHG DJHG SHRSOH 6XEK\SRWKHVLV $ 0DUULHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS ZLOO EH OHVV GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ XQPDUULHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKDW JURXS 6LQFH WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS ZLOO EH IRU WKH PRVW SDUW OLYLQJ LQ LQWDFW PDUULDJHVA DQG WKHUHIRUH LW LV H[SHFWHG WKDW PDQ\ RYHUn DJH VSRXVHV RI ERWK VH[HV ZLOO EH LQ WKLV JURXS DQRWKHU VXEK\n SRWKHVLV FDQ EH IRUPXODWHG 7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW FU\VWD L]DWLRQ SRLQW RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW IRU PHQ LV UHWLUHPHQW YKHUHDV IRU ZRPHQ LW LV ZLGRZKRRG &XPPLQJ DQG %HUDUGR f $FWXDOO\ DOO RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO VXEMHFWV ZHUH LQ LQWDFW PDUULDJHV DW WKH RQVHW EXW VRPH VHSDUDWLRQ DQG GLYRUFH ZDV H[SHFWHG E\ WKH WLPH WKH ILHOG LQWHUYLHZV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG

PAGE 31

5HPDUULDJH IRU D ZRPDQ QHJDWHV ZLGRZKRRG ZKLOH UHPDUULDJH RI DQ HOGHUO\ PDQ KDV OLWWOH RU QR HIIHFW RQ KLV UHWLUHPHQW 6XEK\SRWKHV LV % )HPDOH VXEMHFWV LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS ZLOO EH OHVV GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ PDOH VXEMHFWV LQ WKDW JURXS :RUNLQJ +\SRWKHVHV DQG &RUROODULHV (DFK ZRUNLQJ K\SRWKHVLV ZLOO EH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ D FRUROODU\ 7KH ZRUNLQJ K\SRWKHVLV ZLOO EH WHVWHG ZLWK GDWD RQ WKH FRPELQHG VXEn MHFWV LQ ERWK WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DQG FRPSDULVRQ JURXSV WRJHWKHU DQG WKH FRUROODULHV ZLOO EH WHVWHG E\ QRWLQJ WKH VWUHQJWK RI UHODWLRQVKLS LQ HDFK JURXS ZKHQ DQG LI WKH YDULDEOH EHLQJ WHVWHG E\ WKH YRUNLQJ K\SRWKHVLV SURGXFHG D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH RYHU ERWK JURXSV &XPPL QJ HBWB DMB f f SRVWXODWHG WKDW GLVHQJDJHPHQW LQFUHDVHV DV WKH VL]H RI OLIH VSDFH OHVVHQV DQG WKH DPRXQW RI LQWHUn DFWLRQ GHFUHDVHV +HQFH LW FDQ EH GHGXFHG WKDW LQ JHQHUDO LI DQ DJHG SHUVRQfV IDPLO\ RI RULHQWDWLRQ RU IDPLO\ RI SURFUHDWLRQ DUH VPDOO RU LI WKHUH DUH IHZHU SHRSOH LQ WKH LPPHGLDWH DUHD RI WKH DJHG LQGLYLGXDO WKHQ ERWK KLV OLIH VSDFH DQG SRWHQWLDO IRU LQWHUn DFWLRQ DUH GLPLQLVKHG :RUNLQJ +\SRWKHVLV 7KH ODUJHU WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ DQ DJHG SHUVRQ KDV WKH OHVV HIIHFWLYH ZLOO EH WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV A7KH UHDVRQ DOO WKH K\SRWKHVHV ZHUH QRW PHUHO\ QXPEHUHG LV WKDW WKHUH LV D IXQGDPHQWDO GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH FHQWUDO K\SRWKHVLV D VXE K\SRWKHVLV D ZRUNLQJ K\SRWKHVLV DQG D FRUROODU\ 7KH\ PHDVXUH GLIn IHUHQW HQWLWLHV WKH FHQWUDO K\SRWKHVLV LV FRQFHUQHG ZLWK GLIIHUHQFHV ZLWKLQ HDFK JURXS VHSDUDWHO\ WKH ZRUNLQJ K\SRWKHVLV ZLWK GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH FRPELQHG JURXSV WRJHWKHU DQG WKH FRUROODULHV ZLOO EH FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH VWUHQJWKV RI UHODWLRQVKLS RI DQ\ UHVXOWDQW VLJQLILFDQW GLIn IHUHQFHV LQ HLWKHU JURXS

PAGE 32

&RUROODU\ ,I WKHUH LV D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH QRWHG GXH WR WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLOO EH VWURQJHU LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS WKDQ LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS :RUNLQJ +\SRWKHVLV 7KH ODUJHU WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV DQ DJHG SHUVRQ KDV WKH OHVV HIIHFWLYH ZLOO EH WKH GLVHQJDJHn PHQW SURFHVV &RUROODU\ ,I WKHUH LV D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH QRWHG GXH WR WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLOO EH VWURQJHU LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS WKDQ LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS $JHG FLWL]HQV OLYLQJ LQ VSDUVHO\ SRSXODWHG DUHDV VKRXOG DOVR KDYH VPDOOHU OLIH VSDFHV WKDQ WKRVH OLYLQJ LQ FLWLHV $ GHQVH SRSXn ODWLRQ LQ DGGLWLRQ VKRXOG PHDQ D JUHDWHU FRQFHQW UDW LRQ RI DFWLYLWLHV DQG RUJDQL]DWLRQV VHUYLFLQJ WKH DJHG DQG 5RVH rf IRXQG WKDW XUEDQ HOGHUO\ KDYH D JUHDWHU QXPEHU RI IULHQGV DQG DFTXDLQWDQFHV WKDQ UXUDO HOGHUO\ 9RUNLQJ +\SRWKHVLV r 7KH XUEDQ DJHG ZLOO EH OHVV GLVn HQJDJHG WKDQ WKH UXUDO DJHGrr &RUROODU\ ,I WKHUH LV D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH QRWHG GXH WR UXUDO RU XUEDQ UHVLn GHQFH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLOO EH VWURQJHU LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS WKDQ LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ 6LQFH VRPH RI WKH VSRXVHV LQ ERWK JURXSV ZLOO EH XQGHU \HDUV RI DJH LW VHHPV UHDVRQDEOH WR DVVXPH DW OHDVW K\SRWKHWLFDOO\  $OO VXEMHFWV ZKR UHVLGH LQ WKH FLW\ OLPLWV RI 2FDOD &LW\ 3DODWND DQG *DLQHVYLOOH )ORULGD ZHUH FODVVLILHG DV $OO WKH VXEMHFWV OLYLQJ LQ RWKHU DUHDV RI WKH QLQH FRXQWLHV VWXG\ ZHUH FODVVLILHG DV UXUDO /DNH XUEDQ LQ WKLV

PAGE 33

f WKDW DQ ROGHU SHUVRQ PDUULHG WR VXFK D \RXQJHU PDWH PLJKW EH LQ D VLWXDWLRQ WKDW ZRXOG DFW WRZDUG WKH SRVWSRQHPHQW RI WKH ROGHU VSRXVHfV GLVHQJDJHPHQWA :RUNLQJ +\SRWKHVLV K r f§ U 7 UZ f§‘f§‘f§ Q f§‘ ‘ f§ f§ ‘ ‘ f§ f§ $PRQJ WKH PDUULHG VXEMHFWV WKRVH ZKRVH PDWHV DUH WRR \RXQJ WR EH VXEMHFWV ZLOO EH OHVV GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ WKRVH VXEMHFWV ZKRVH PDUULDJH SDUWQHUV DUH DOVR VXEMHFWV &RURO DU\ ,I WKHUH LV D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH QRWHG GXH WR DJH RI VSRXVH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLOO EH VWURQJHU LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS WKDQ LQ WKH FRPSDULn VRQ JURXS 5DFH PD\ DOVR EH D IDFWRU LQ WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW UDWH RI VHQLRU FLWL]HQV &HUWDLQO\ DW DJH 1HJURHV LQ JHQHUDO DUH FORVHU WR WKH HQG RI WKHLU OLYHV WKDQ &DXFDVLDQV GXH WR D GLIIHUHQWLDO LQ WKHLU 7LIH H[SHFWDQF\ 7KH DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI \HDUV RI OLIH UHPDLQLQJ DW DJH IRU YAKLWHV ZDV LQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK IRU QRQZKLWHV 9LWDO 6WDWLVWLFV RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 0RUWDOLW\ 7DEOHV f f $ GLIIHUHQWLDO RI \HDUV PD\ QRW VHHP JUHDW EXW LW LV D PHDVXUDEOH DQG IDFWXDO GLIIHUHQFH 0RUHRYHU UDFH LV ERWK D FRPPRQ DQG LPSRUWDQW GHPRJUDSKLF YDULDEOH KHQFH LW ZRXOG EH ZLVH WR WHVW D UDFLDO K\SRWKHVLV LQ RUGHU WR GHWHUPLQH LI WKLV FKDUDFWHULVWLF PDNHV D GLIIHUHQFH LQ GHJUHH RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW A7KLV VWXG\ GLG QRW HQGHDYRU WR IRFXV RQ WKH VH[XDO DVSHFWV RI WKHVH PDUULDJHV *HURQWRORJLVWV NQRZ RI FRXUVH WKDW VH[XDOLW\ JRHV RQ DV ORQJ DV OLIH JRHV RQ 9LNOHU DQG *UH\ DQG 5XELQ f EXW WKH IUHTXHQF\ WKH SUREOHP RI ELUWK FRQWURO WHFKQLTXHV DQG PDQ\ RWKHU FRQVHTXHQFHV RI VH[ MXVW GR QRW KDYH WKH VDPH GHJUHH RI LPSDFW RQ ROG FRXSOHV DV LV WKH FDVH DPRQJ \RXQJ FRXSOHV 0RUHRYHU ROGVWHUV PD\ EH RQ WKH GHIHQVLYH DV UHJDUGV TXHULHV LQWR WKHLU VH[XDO OLYHV DQG EH UHOXFWDQW WR UHVSRQG 7R EH VXUH LW LV LPSRVVLEOH WR FRPSOHWHO\ UHPRYH WKH JHQGHU GLPHQVLRQ IURP DQ\ LQWHUDFWLQJ G\DG EXW QR LWHPV RQ WKH LQWHUYLHZ VFKHGXOH UHODWHG LQ DQ\ ZD\ WR VH[XDO EHKDYLRU

PAGE 34

:RUNLQJ +\SRWKHVLV 6n %ODFNV YL EH PRUH GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ ZKLWHV &RUR DU\ ,I WKHUH LV D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH QRWHG GXH WR UDFH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLOO EH VWURQJHU LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS WKDQ LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS 7KLV PDNHV D WRWDO RI K\SRWKHVHV WR EH WHVWHG LQ WKLV ZRUN WKH PDMRU RU WKHRUHWLFDO K\SRWKHVLV WYR VXEK\SRWKHVHV ILYH ZRUNLQJ b K\SRWKHVHV DQG ILYH FRUROODULHV 2SHUDWLRQD L]DWLRQ RI 'LVHQJDJHPHQW 7KH VLQJOH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LQ WKLV WUHDWLVH LV WKH GLVHQ JDJHPHQW SURFHVV 7KH PRVW FRQFUHWH WHUPLQRORJ\ VHHPV WR EH LQ FRQn FHSWXDOL]LQJ GLVHQJDJHPHQW DV VRFLDO LVRODWLRQ YLVDYLV VRFLDO DFWLYLW\ &XPPLQJ HBWB DBOB f PDLQWDLQHG WKDW WKH FRQFRPLWDQW HOHPHQWV RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW DUH OHVV LQYROYHPHQW ZLWK ZRUN IDPLO\ DQG FOXEV EXW VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKHUH PD\ EH PRUH LQYROYHPHQW LQ UHFUHDWLRQ HVSHFLDOO\ DW WKH HDUO\ VWDJHV RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW 2QH FRXOG DUJXH WKDW LQ WKH HDUO\ VWDJHV RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW WKHUH PD\ EH PRUH LQYROYHPHQW ZLWK IDPLO\ IULHQGV DQG YROXQWDU\ DVVRFLDWLRQV EHFDXVH UHWLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV ZRXOG KDYH PRUH IUHH WLPH f m IRU VXFK DFWLYLWLHV 1HYHUWKHOHVV LW VHHPV PRUH OLNHO\ WKDW WKH UHGXFWLRQ RI IDPLOLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ EHJLQV HYHQ EHIRUH WKH HOGHUO\ LQGLYLGXDO VWRSV ZRUNLQJ 7KH LQYROYHPHQW ZDV PRUH SUREDEO\ PRVW LQWHQVH GXULQJ KLV HDUO\PLGGOH DJH ZKHQ KLV FKLOGUHQ ZHUH OLYLQJ ZLWK KLP QRW DV LQWHQVH GXULQJ KLV PLGGOHPLGGOH DJH ZKHQ KLV FKL GUHQ ZHUH JHWWLQJ PDUULHG DQG OHVV LQWHQVH GXULQJ KLV ODWHPLGGOH

PAGE 35

DJH ZKHQ KLV PDUULHG FKLOGUHQ ZHUH SUHVHQWLQJ KLP ZLWK QHZ JUDQGn FKLOGUHQ 7KH ODWHU LQWHUDFWLRQDO SURFHVVHV PRUH WKDQ OLNHO\ LQYROYHG D JUDGXDO DQG PXWXDO ZLWKGUDZDO $V UHJDUGV IULHQGV %ODX f VKRZHG WKDW WKH H[WHQW RI IULHQGVKLS SDUWLFLSDWLRQ GHFUHDVHV ZLWK DJH 7XUQLQJ WR YROXQWDU\ DVVRFLDWLRQV WKH PHPEHUVKLS RI YROXQWDU\ b DVVRFLDWLRQV OLNH WKH SRSXODWLRQ RI D VRFLHW\ ZRXOG QRW OLNH WR VHH WKHLU RQJRLQJ ZRUN DQG DFWLYLWLHV GLVUXSWHG $ GHDWK RI VRPHRQH LQ D SRVLWLRQ RI UHVSRQVLELOLW\ IRU VXFK FRQWLQXLW\ ZRXOG EH XSVHWWLQJ WR WKH V\VWHP 7R DYRLG WKLV WKH LQGLYLGXDO VKRXOG UHDG\ KLPVHOI IRU WRWDO GLVHQJDJHPHQW DQG WKH JURXS H[SHFWV KLP WR GR VR +HQFH LW LV PRUH ORJLFDO WKDW D PHDVXUH RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW ZRXOG EH DQ DJHG SHUVRQnV JLYLQJ XS KLV FOXE PHPEHUVKLS DQG HVSHFLDOO\ \LHOGLQJ DQ\ UROH KH PD\ KDYH DV DQ RIILFHU LQ WKH JURXS *XPPLQJ LQ D ODWHU ZRUN ZLWK +HQU\ DQG f UHDIILUPHG WKH HDUOLHU GLVHQJDJHPHQW GHILQLWLRQ &XPPLQT HW D f WKDW DQ DJHG SHUVRQ EHJLQV DQ DEVRUSWLRQ ZLWK VHOI DQG EHFRPHV OHVV DQG OHVV LQYROYHG ZLWK OLIH DURXQG KLP +RZHYHU WKH DXWKRUV FRQFOXGHG WKDW VLQFH DQ ROGHU SHUVRQ VHHV IHZHU SHRSOH OHVV RIWHQ DQG IRU VKRUWHU WLPH SHULRGV ,W LV FRQFHLYDEOH WKDW HYHQ WKHLU UHFUHDWLRQDO DFWLYLWLHV EHJLQ WR GLPLQLVK =ERURZVN, f UHSRUWHG WKDW SDUWLFLSDQW UHFUHDWLRQDO DFWLYLWLHV GHILQLWHO\ GHFUHDVH ZLWK DJH HVSHFLDOO\ WKRVH VLWXDWLRQV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SK\VLFDO H[HUWLRQ

PAGE 36

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ff KHOG WKDW WKH YHU\ ROG PDQLIHVW UHGXFHG VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ LQ DOO DUHDV RI OLIH 7KH\ EHJLQ GHPRQVWUDWLQJ DQ LQFUHDVHG SUHRFFXSD WLRQ ZLWK VHOI DQG D GHFUHDVHG WLPH DQG HPRWLRQDO LQYHVWPHQW YL WK RWKHUV &XPPLQJ DQG +HQU\ 6R f DOVR FRQFOXGHG WKDW UHOLJLRXV LQWHUHVWV GHFUHDVH LQ ROGHU DJH 7KHUHIRUH WKH SUHVHQW LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DVVXPHV WKDW LI DQ ROGHU SHUVRQ LV UHPDLQLQJ DFWLYH LQ WKH WRWDOLW\ RI UHOLJLRVLW\ E\ VWLOO DWWHQGLQJ FKXUFK UHJXODUO\ WHDFKLQJ 6XQGD\ VFKRRO RU FDWHFKLVP FODVVHV RU WKH OLNH WKHQ KH LV RSSRVLQJ GLVHQJDJHPHQW &XPPLQJ HW D A Af DQG 1HXJDUWHQ DQG $VVRFLDWHV r f IRXQG WKDW ROGHU SHRSOH DUH PRUH FDUHIUHH LQ WKHLU SHUVRQDO DFWLRQV DQG OHVV HYDOXDWLYH RI ZKDW RWKHU SHRSOH WKLQN RI WKHLUfEHKDYLRU $V D PDWWHU RI IDFW PRVW ROGHU SHRSOH VHHUQ WR DEVWDLQ IURP LQWHQVH cQWHUSHUVRQD UHODWLRQVKLSV 7KLV SURGXFHV D QRQQRUPDWLYH SDWWHUQLQJ RI EHKDYLRU D GHYLDQF\ ZKLFK UHLQIRUFHV WKH ROG SHUVRQnV GHVLUH WR

PAGE 37

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f 7KH H[DFW VFDOHV XVHG DUH HQWLWOHG /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH &KXUFK DQG 9ROXQWDU\ 2UJDQL]DWLRQ 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ 5ROH &RXQW DQG 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 7KH RWKHU LV WKH /LIH 6DWLVIDFWLRQ ,QGH[ $ /6,$f GHYHORSHG E\ 1HXJDUWHQ +DYLJKXUVW DQG 7RELQ +DYLJKXUVW f 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKH ODWWHU WRRO LV PHUHO\ WR GHWHUPLQH LI WKHUH LV D GLIIHUHQFH LQ JHQHUDO OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH WZR JURXSV UDWKHU WKDQ WHVW DQ\ SDUWLFXODU K\SRWKHVLV 7KLV

PAGE 38

GRHV QRW PHDQ WKDW WKHUH LV QR FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ HQJDJHPHQW DQG OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ ,QGHHG LQ WKH DFFRPSDQ\LQJ WDEOHV RI WKH 0F.DLQ PRQRn JUDSK @ff WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH DJHG QHZO\ZHGV VFRUHG LQ WKH KLJK b HVW EUDFNHW RI OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ %XW LQ DQRWKHU VWXG\ RI ROGHU SHRSOH LQ JHQHUDO 0DGGR[ f LW ZDV VKRZQ WKDW OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ GRHV QRW FKDQJH ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ DJH HYHQ LQ VXEMHFWV ZKR GHPRQVWUDWH b GHFUHDVLQJ DFWLYLW\ ZLWK DJH $W DQ\ UDWH WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI VXFK D UHODWLRQVKLS LV RXWVLGH WKH SXUYLHZ RI WKLV VWXG\ %XW LI D VLJQLILn FDQW GLIIHUHQFH LV QRWHG RQ WKH YDULDEOH GLVHQJDJHPHQW DPRQJ WKH VXEMHFWV DQG WKLV LV FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH /6$ WKHQ WKLV ZRXOG DFW DV D WHVW RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLS 7KH LQVWUXPHQW DOVR FRQWDLQHG DGGLWLRQDO LWHPV GHILQLQJ WKH LQn GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV DQG SHUVRQDO EDFNJURXQG VHH $SSHQGL[f ,Q DGGLWLRQ VHYHQ RSHQHQGHG SUREHV DLPHG DW HOLFLWLQJ VRPH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKHLU PDUULDJH ZHUH DVNHG RI WKH QHZO\ PDUULHG FRXSOHV ZKR LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH\ ZRXOG QRW PLQG DQVZHULQJ WKHP 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKHVH LWHPV ZDV WR VHUYH DV D JXLGH IRU IXWXUH UHVHDUFK UDWKHU WKDQ WHVW DQ\ RI WKH K\SRWKn HVHV 7KH VDPH VFKHGXOH ZDV DGPLQLVWHUHG WR WKH UHVSRQGHQWV LQ ERWK WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DQG FRPSDULVRQ JURXSV ,Q WKRVH FDVHV ZKHUH ERWK VSRXVHV ZHUH RYHU R2 WKH KXVEDQG DQG ZLIH ZHUH LQWHUYLHZHG GXULQJ WKH VDPH YLVLW EXW VHSDUDWHO\ +RZHYHU WKH VHYHQ TXHULHV RQ PDUULDJH ZHUH DGPLQLVWHUHG WRJHWKHU WR FRXSOHV ZKR ZHUH ZLOOLQJ WR UHVSRQG WR WKHP LI WKHLU UHn VSRQVHV ZHUH GLIIHUHQW WKLV ZDV QRWHG

PAGE 39

$QDO\VLV RI WKH 0DUULDJH 5HFRUG 'DWD $ WRWDO RI PDUULDJHV ZHUH OHJLWLPL]HG LQ WKH QLQHFRXQW\ DUHD ZKHUHLQ HLWKHU WKH EULGH RU JURRP RU ERWK ZHUH \HDUV RI DJH RU RYHU GXULQJ WKH WLPH VSDQ LQGLFDWHGA 6RPH XVHIXO LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV DOUHDG\ RQ WKH PDUULDJH OLFHQVH DSSOLFDWLRQV 7KHVH GDWD LQFOXGH WKRVH SHUVRQV ZKR FRXOG QRW ODWHU EH ORFDWHG WR EH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH H[SHUL b PHQWDO SRSXODWLRQ 'DWD ZHUH DOVR IRXQG RQ ERWK PDULWDO SDUWQHUV ZKLFK LQFOXGHG DJH UDFH FRPPXQLW\ RI UHVLGHQFH DW WKH WLPH RI DSSOLn FDWLRQ SUHYLRXV PDULWDO VWDWXV QXPEHU RI SUHYLRXV PDUULDJHV KRZ WKH ODVW XQLRQ HQGHG DQG LI WKH PDUULDJH MXVW SUHYLRXV ZDV WHUPLQDWHG E\ GLYRUFH ZKHQ DQG ZKHUH 7KH QXPEHU DQG SHUFHQWDJH RI WKRVH IRUPDOL]HG XQLRQV DUH SUHn VHQWHG LQ 7DEOH 7KH ILJXUHV IURP $ODFKXD &RXQW\ )ORULGD GHSLFWHG 7DEOH 7KH 1XPEHU RI DOO 0DUULDJHV DQG WKH 1XPEHU DQG 3HUFHQWDJH RI 0DUULDJHV ZLWK DW /HDVW 2QH RI WKH 3DUWQHUV RYHU 5HFRUGHG LQ $ODFKXD &RXQW\ )ORULGD ,QFOXVLYH 1XPEHU 1XPEHU DQG 3HUFHQWDJH RI 0D UULDJHV ZLWK
PAGE 40

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f ZDV HQWHULQJ KLV VL[WK PDUULDJH 0RUH VXUSULVLQJ LV WKDW SHUFHQW FDVHVf RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ KDG QHYHU EHHQ PDUULHG EHIRUH KRQH RI WKH QHYHUPDUULHG JURRPV ZDV XQLWLQJ ZLWK DQ\ RI WKH QHYHUPDUULHG EULGHV ,W ZRXOG VHHP EHFDXVH RI RXU GHILQLWLRQ WKDW RQO\ RQH RI WKH PDWHV QHHG EH RYHU WKDW SHUKDSV PRVW RI WKH QHYHUPDUULHGV ZRXOG EH SDUWQHUV ZKR KDG QRW \HW DWWDLQHG DJH EXW LQ IDFW RI WKH QHYHUP£UfU L HGEH IRUH nJURXS ZHUH O \HDUV RI DJH RU RO GHU /RJLF PLJKW DOVR OHDG XV WR VXVSHFW WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH QHYHUPDUULHGV ZRXOG EH EULGHV EXW DJDLQ DV D PDWWHU RI IDFW RI WKH QHYHUPDUULHGEHIRUH JURXS ZHUH JURRPV 2I FRXUVH LW ZDV KRW WKH VDPH HLJKW ZKR ZHUH RYHU \HDUV RI DJH 7KUHH RI WKH VL[ RI

PAGE 41

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n JUDSKV EHFDXVH KH KDG EHHQ PDUULHG WZLFH EHIRUHf 7KLV LV LQ DJUHHn PHQW ZLWK %DUQDUG f ZKR IRXQG WKDW PRVW SUHYLRXV PDUUDLJHV DPRQJ WKH ROGHU DJH JURXSV HQGHG LQ ZLGRZKRRG 7KH VXUSULVLQJO\ EURDG DJH UDQJH RI SHUVRQV LQYROYHG LQ WKHVH PDUULDJHV FDQ EH QRWHG LQ 7DEOH A 7KH PRGDO DJH EUDFNHW ZDV WKH WRN\HDUROG JURXS ZLWK WKH WRWDO GLVWULEXWLRQ EHLQJ VOLJKWO\ VNHZHG WRZDUG WKH ROGHU DJH JURXSLQJV ZLWK FDVHV IDOOLQJ LQ WKH RU ROGHU FDWHJRULHV DQG FDVHV EHLQJ XQGHU WKH DJH RI 7UHPHQGRXV YDULDWLRQ H[LVWHG LQ WKH UHODWLYH DJHV RI WKRVH ZKR HQWHUHG WKH PDUULDJHV XQGHU VWXG\nDV FDQ EH VHHQ E\ DQ H[DPLQDWLRQ RI 7DEOH 7KH IRXU SHUVRQV ZKR ZHUH RI WKH VDPH DJH DW WKH WLPH RI

PAGE 42

7DEOH L 'LVWULEXWLRQ E\ $JH RI WKH 3DUWQHUV LQ 0DUULDJHV WK DW /HDVW 2QH RI WKH 3DUWQHUV RYHU $JH 5HFRUGHG LQ $ODFKXD &RXQW\ )ORULGD ,QFOXVLYH $JH *URXS 1XPEHU RI &DVHV 6XP

PAGE 43

7DEOH 0DUULDJHV LQ
PAGE 44

DQ \HDUaR"G PDQ WRRN D a\HDUROG ZLIH 'RWK RI WKHVH SDLUV ZHUH 1HJUR :KHQ WKHUH ZDV DQ DJH GLIIHUHQFH LW ZDV QRW DOZD\V WKH JURRP EHLQJ ROGHU WKDQ WKH EULGH ,Q RI WKH FRXSOHV URXJKO\ SHUFHQWf DV GHSLFWHG LQ 7DEOH WKH EULGHV ZHUH ROGHU WKDQ WKH JURRPVn 0F.DOQ f IRXQG WKDW SHUFHQW RI KLV EULGHV ZHUH ROGHU WKDQ b WKHLU JURRPV cQ WKH FDVHV RI WKH @N DQG \HDU VSUHDG VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH 'LIIHUHQFHV LQ $JHV RI WKH 0DUULHG 3DLU LQ WKH &DVHV :KHUH WKH %ULGHV :HUH 2OGHU 7KDQ WKH *URRPV LQ 0DUULDJHV LQ :KLFK DW /HDVW 2QH RI WKH 3DUWQHUV :DV RYHU $JH 3HUIRUPHG LQ $ODFKXD &RXQW\ )ORULGD ,QFOXVLYH
PAGE 45

8QIRUWXQDWHO\ WKH PDUULDJH OLFHQVH DSSOLFDWLRQ IRUPV LQ )ORULGD JLYH RQO\ WKH ORFDOLW\ RI WKH EULGH DQG JURRP SULRU WR WKH FHUHPRQ\ DQG QRW DQ\ LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ ZKHUH WKH FRXSOH ZLOO EH UHVLGLQJ DIWHU WKH PDUULDJH 7KH IROORZLQJ OLVWV ZHUH VHDUFKHG LQ DQ HIIRUW WR ILQG WKH FXUUHQW DGGUHVVHV RI WKH VXEMHFWV WKH FLW\ GLUHFWRULHV XWLOLWLHV b ELOOLQJ OLVWV DQG WHOHSKRQH GLUHFWRULHV RI WKH FRPPXQLWLHV LQ WKH UHVHDUFK DUHD WKH OLVW RI ZHOIDUH FOLHQWV RI WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI 6RFLDO 6HUYLFHV IRU WKH FRXQWLHV LQYROYHG DQG WKH UHJLRQDO OLVW RI SXEOLF DVVLVWDQFH UHFLSLHQWV RI WKH 6WDWH RI )ORULGD 'LYLVLRQ RI )DPLO\ 6HUYLFHV 7KH DGGUHVVHV RI VRPH RI WKH VXEMHFWV ZKR OLYHG IDUWKHU DZD\ ZHUH DFTXLUHG E\ XWLOL]LQJ WKH WHOHSKRQH GLDOLQJ WKHQ WKH DUHD FRGH WKHQ f 7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ RSHUDWRU XSRQ UHTXHVW DOZD\V VXSSOLHG WKH VWUHHW DGGUHVV ZKHUH WKH WHOHSKRQH LQ WKDW JLYHQ SDUW\fV QDPH ZDV ORFDWHG 0DQ\ DGGUHVVHV ZHUH VWLOO QRW DVFHUWDLQHG VR D OHWWHU ZDV VHQW LQ FDUH RI WKH SRVWPDVWHU RI HDFK VXEMHFWnV ODVW FRPPXQLW\ RI UHVLGHQFH ZLWK LQVWUXFWLRQV WR GHOLYHU LW WR WKDW VXEMHFW (DFK RI WKHVH OHWWHUV KDG D UHWXUQ SRVWFDUG HQFORVHG LQ LW UHTXHVWLQJ WKH VXEMHFW WR ZULWH GRZQ KLV SUHVHQW DGGUHVV DQG GURS WKH FDUG LQ D PDLOER[ ,I WKHVH FDUGV ZHUH QRW UHWXUQHG D SHUVRQDO YLVLW ZDV PDGH WR HYHU\ SRVW RIILFH LQ WKH QLQHFRXQW\ DUHD WR VHFXUH H[LVWLQJ RU IRUZDUGLQJ DGGUHVVHV IRU WKH UHPDLQLQJ VXEMHFWV LI DQ\ ZHUH DYDLODEOH

PAGE 46

9KHQ WKLV SURFHGXUH IDLOHG WR UHYHDO WKH ZKHUHDERXWV RI DOO WKH UHn PDLQLQJ XQNQRZQV LQTXLU\ ZDV PDGH DW YDULRXV SRLQWV VXFK DV JHQHUDO VWRUHV DQG VHUYLFH VWDWLRQV LQ WKRVH WRZQV LQ DQ DWWHPSW WR JHW D OHDG RQ WKRVH UHPDLQLQJ FDVHV ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH ORFDWLRQ RI VRPH VXEMHFWV ZDV SLFNHG XS LQ HDFK VWHS RI WKH VHDUFK ,Q DGGLWLRQ VRPH SRVWPDVWHUV DQG WRZQVn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n VLGH WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DUHD ZKR DSSDUHQWO\ FDPH WR $ODFKXD &RXQW\ IRU WKH ZHGGLQJ DQG WKHQ UHWXUQHG WR WKRVH FRPPXQLWLHV DIWHU WKH FHUHPRQ\ OO$ 6XEMHFWV IURP VWDWHV RWKHU WKDQ )ORULGD ZKR DSSDUHQWO\ FDPH WR $ODFKXD &RXQW\ IRU WKH ZHGGLQJ DQG WKHQ UHWXUQHG WR WKRVH VWDWHV

PAGE 47

FRQWLQXHGf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n VXOWV RI WKHVH WZR ZHUH QRW WDEXODWHG ZLWK WKH FRPSOHWHG LQWHUYLHZV 2QH RI WKH LQFRPSOHWHV UHVXOWHG DW WKH YHU\ HQG RI WKH LQWHUYLHZ ZKHQ WKH VXEMHFW VXGGHQWO\ UHYHUVHG KLV GHVLUH WR KDYH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ UHn FRUGHG DQG GHPDQGHG WKDW WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH EH VXUUHQGHUHG WR KLP KH LPPHGLDWHO\ WRUH LW XS 7KH LQWHUYLHZHU RXWVLGH ODWHU ILOOHG LQ D EODQN IRUP WR WKH EHVW RI KLV UHFROOHFWLRQ 7KH RWKHU LQFRPSOHWH RFFXUUHG DERXW RQHWKLUG RI WKH ZD\ WKURXJK WKH LQWHUYLHZ ZKHQ WKH VXEMHFW EHFDPH WRR LOO WR JR RQ DQG KLV ZLIH ZRXOG QRW DOORZ WKH

PAGE 48

TXHVWLRQLQJ WR FRQWLQXH WKDW GD\ RU RQ DQ\ RI WKH IROORZXS YLVLWV *HQHUDOO\ VSHDNLQJ KRZHYHU WKH FRRSHUDWLRQ RI WKH VXEMHFWV ZDV YHU\ JRRG LQGHHG

PAGE 49

&+$37(5 7+5(( ),1',1*6 $V ZDV VWDWHG LQ &KDSWHU 7ZR HOGHUO\ QHZO\ZHGV ZHUH FKRVHQ DV WKH H[SHULPHQWDO VDPSOH DQG HOGHUO\ SHUVRQV ZHUH VHOHFWHG DV D FRPSDULVRQ JURXS $OO WKH VXEMHFWV ZHUH LQWHUYLHZHG LQ WKHLU RZQ KRPHV DQG WKHLU UHVSRQVHV WR FHUWDLQ TXHVWLRQV SXW WR WKHP DUH WDEXn ODWHG DQG DQDO\]HG LQ WKLV FKDSWHU &KDUDFWHU LVWLFV RI WKH 5HVHDUFK 6DPSOHV ,QLWLDOO\ WKH HGXFDWLRQDO OHYHO RI WKH VXEMHFWV LQ ERWK JURXS LV SUHVHQWHG 7DEOH f 7KLV GLVWULEXWLRQ GHPRQVWUDWHV WKH UDQJH RI IRUPDO VFKRROLQJ DPRQJ WKH UHVSRQGHQWV 7KH GDWD LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS KDG D KLJKHU SHUFHQWDJH RI VXEMHFWV ZLWK QR VFKRRO LQJ VFKRROLQJ WR WKH ILIWK JUDGH DQG DGYDQFHG HGXFDWLRQV ZKLOH WKH VXEMHFWV LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS OHG LQ WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQV IURP D VL[WK JUDGH HGXFDWLRQ WR JUDGXDWLRQ IURP KLJK VFKRRO ,QIRUPDWLRQ ZDV DOVR FROOHFWHG RQ WKH SULPDU\ OLIHWLPH RFFXSDn WLRQV RI WKH VXEMHFWV DQG WKHVH GDWD DUH IRXQG LQ 7DEOH 7KH WZR b JURXSV DSSHDU WR EH QHDUO\ HYHQO\ GLVWULEXWHG RQ WKLV YDULDEOH DOn WKRXJK WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS KDG PRUH VNLOOHG FUDIWVPHQ ZKLOH WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS KDG PRUH ORZHU OHYHO SURIHVVLRQDOV 7KH KLJKHU SUHVWLJH RI WKH ORZHU OHYHO SURIHVV LRQDV LV SUREDEO\ RIIVHW E\ WKH JUHDWHU VDODU\ H[SHFWDWLRQ RI WKH VNLOOHG FUDIWVPHQ KHQFH WKHUH

PAGE 50

7DELF 7KH (GXFDWLRQDO /HYHOV RI WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV (GXFDWLRQD /HYH @ bf ([SHULP *URXS cHULWD 1 f &XP bf &RPSD *URXS bf U L VRQ 1 Rf &XP 1R )RUPDO 6FKRROcQJ f f )LUVW *UDGH $WWHQGHG WR )LIWK *UDGH &RPSOHWHG f f 6L[WK *UDGH $WWHQGHG WR (LJKWK *UDGH &RPS H WHG f f +LJK 6FKRRO $WWHQGHG %XW 1RW &RPS HWHG f f +LJK 6FKRRO *UDGD WH f f 6RPH 7HUWLDU\ (GXFDWLRQ f f bf

PAGE 51

7DEOH R 7KH 3ULPDU\ /LIHWLPH 2FFXSDWLRQV RI DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV WKH ([SHULPHQWD ([SHULP HQWD &RPSDUcVRQ 3ULPDU\ /LIHWLPH *URXS 1 f *URXS 1 f 2FFXSDWLRQ rf &XP bf bf &XP bfr +RXVHYL IH f f 8QVNL OHG /DERUHU f f 6HUYLFH 2FFXSD WLRQV f f 6HPL VNL OHG :RUNHU f f &OHULFDO DQG 6DOHV &DWHJRULHV f f 6NL OHG &UDIWVPDQ f f )DUP 2ZQHU RU 6HOI(PSOR\HG f f /RZH U 3URIHVV LRQD Q f f 8SSHU 3URIHVVLRQDO f f r7RWDO FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJ H GRHV QRW HTXDO GXH WR URXQGLQJ 8QVNLOOHG ZRUNHUV ILHOG DQG RUFKDUG ZRUNHUV WHQDQW IDUPHUV PDLGV 6HUYLFH RFFXSDWLRQV UHVWDXUDQW DQG KRWHO HPSOR\HHV QLJKW ZDWFKn PHQ UDLOURDG SRUWHUV PLOLWDU\ FDUHHUPDQ SUDFWLFDO QXUVHV 6HPLVNLOOHG ZRUNHUV JHQHUDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ ZRUNHUV WUXFN GULYHUV IDFWRU\ DVVHPEO\ OLQH ZRUNHUV &OHULFDO DQG VDOHV SRVWDO FOHUNV EUDQFK VDOHVPHQ VWRUH FOHUNV RIILFH FOHUNV UDLOURDG FRQGXFWRUV VHFUHWDULHV 6NLOOHG FUDIWVPHQ HHFWULFLDQV FDUSHQWHUV EULFN OD\HUV PHFKDQLFV VWRQH PDVRQV /RZHU SURIHVVLRQDOV UHJLVWHUHG QXUVHV SUHDFKHUV VFKRRO WHDFKHUV 8SSHU SURIHVVLRQDOV ODZ\HUV DQG FROOHJH SURIHVVRUV

PAGE 52

DSSHDUV WR EH QR JUHDW VRFLRHFRQRPLF LPEDODQFH EHWZHHQ WKH WZR JURXSV ZKLFK PLJKW LQWURGXFH D VDPSOLQJ ELDV 7KH GDWD RQ WKH SUHVHQW HPSOR\PHQW VWDWXVHV RI ERWK JURXSV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH 7KHUH LV OLWWOH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH WZR JURXSV RQ PRVW RI WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQV EXW D GLVSURSRUWLRQDWH VKDUH RI 7DEOH 7KH 3UHVHQW (PSOR\PHQW 6WDWXVHV RI WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3UHVHQW (PSOR\PHQW 6WDWXV ([SHUcPHQWD *URXS 1 f bf &XP"f &RPSD *URXS bf U L VRQ 1 f &XP bf +RXVHZLIH f f 6WLOO (PSOR\HG )XOO7LPH DW 3ULPDU\ /LIH 2FFXSDWLRQ f f 5HWLUHG IURP 3ULPDU\ /LIHWLPH 2FFXSDWLRQ EXW 6WLOO :RUNLQJ 3DUW7LPH ,Q ,W f f 5HWLUHG IURP 3ULPDU\ /LIHWLPH 2FFXSDWLRQ EXW 1RZ :RUNLQJ )XOO7LPH LQ $QRWKHU 2FFXSDWLRQ f f 5HWLUHG IURP 3ULPDU\ /LIHWLPH 2FFXSDWLRQ EXW 1RZ :RUNLQJ 3DUW7LPH LQ $QRWKHU 2FFXSDWLRQ 2 f R &2 f Y2 f f )XOO\ 5HWLUHG IURP 6DODULHG :R U N f f WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS ZDV IXOO\ UHWLUHG DQG QHDUO\ ILYH WLPHV DV PDQ\ H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS VXEMHFWV ZHUH VWLOO ZRUNLQJ IXOOWLPH DW WKHLU SULPDU\ OLIHWLPH RFFXSDWLRQV 7KH ODWWHU PD\ EH GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW DOO WKH H[SHULPHQWDO VXEMHFWV ZHUH LQYROYHG LQ EXLOGLQJ D QHZ PDUULDJH

PAGE 53

ZKHUHDV QHDUO\ KDOI RI WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VXEMHFWV ZHUH QRW PDUULHG ,W PD\ DOVR EH WUXH WKDW PDUULDJH RU UHPDUULDJH PD\ KDYH EHHQ IDFLOLn WDWHG EHFDXVH WKH VXEMHFW KDG HPSOR\PHQW 7KH PDULWDO VWDWXVHV RI WKH VXEMHFWV LQ ERWK JURXSV DSSHDU L Q 7DEOH $V ZDV H[SHFWHG PRVW f 7DEOH 7KH 0DULWDO 6WDWXVHV RI WKH ([SH U L P HQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV ([SHU L PHQWD &RPSDULVRQ r 0DUL WDO 6WDWXV URXS 1 *URXS 1 f ^bf &XPbf bf &XP bf 0DUULHG f f 6HSDUD WHG } f f :LGRZHG f f 'LYRUFHG K f f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f 6LQFH WKH DJH IORRU LQ WKLV VWXG\ LV LW LV H[SHFWHG WKDW VOLJKWO\ PRUH RI WKH VXEMHFWV ZRXOG EH VWLOO PDUULHG DQG VOLJKWO\ IHZHU ZRXOG EH ZLGRZHG

PAGE 54

5HJDUGLQJ VH[ VXEMHFWV LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS ZHUH PDOHV DQG ZHUH IHPDOHV 7KLV GRHV QRW LQGLFDWH D UHYHUVDO LQ WKH DJHG PRUWDOLW\ WUHQG EXW VLPSO\ WKDW PDQ\ PDOHV LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS ZHUH PDUULHG WR ZRPHQ ZKR ZHUH WRR \RXQJ WR EH VXEMHFWV ,Q WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VOLJKWO\ RYHU SHUFHQW VXEMHFWVf ZHUH IHPDOHV 7KH ILJXUH IRU WKH ZKROH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV \HDUV ROG RU ROGHU LV SHUFHQW IHPDOH $JLQJ f %XW LW LV H[SHFWHG WKDW WKHUH ZRXG EH D VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU SHUFHQWDJH RI PDOHV VWLOO DOLYH LQ WKLV VWXG\nV FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VLQFH WKH DJH IORRU IRU VHOHFWLRQ ZDV ORZHU E\ ILYH \HDUV 2I WKH WRWDO H[SHULPHQWDO DQG FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VXEMHFWV RU SHUFHQW ZHUH ZKLWH DQG RU SHUFHQW ZHUH EODFN ,Q WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS SHUFHQW ZHUH ZKLWH ZKLOH LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS SHUFHQW ZHUH ZKLWH 7KH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ GDWXP IRU WKH 6WDWH RI )ORULGD ZDV SHUFHQW ZKLWH DQG IRU WKH QLQHFRXQW\ VWXG\ DUHD ZKLFK KDG ZKLWHV RXW RI D WRWDO SRSXODWLRQ RI LW ZDV SHUFHQW ZKLWH 8 6 &HQVXV fOff 7KLV GLVFUHSDQF\ FDQ EH SDUWLDOO\ DFFRXQWHG IRU E\ WKH IDFW WKDW HLJKW RI WKH QLQH UHIXVDOV ZHUH E\ ZKLWH SHUVRQV WKXV LI WKH VDPSOHV KDG UHPDLQHG b b LQWDFW SHUFHQW RI WKH VXEMHFWV ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ ZKLWH 0RUH RI WKLV GLVSDULW\ LV UHVROYHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW LQ $ODFKXD &RXQW\ )ORULGD ZKHUH PRVW RI WKH VDPSOH XQLWV ZHUHGUDZQ RQO\ SHUFHQW RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ RYHU \HDUV RI DJH ZDV ZKLWH 8 6 &HQVXV f ,Q DGG L WLRQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS WDNHQ E\ LWVHOI ZRXOG KDYH

PAGE 55

LI LW KDG UHPDLQHG LQWDFW VLQFH DOO VL[ EHHQ A SHUFHQW ZKLWH UHIXVDOV LQ WKDW JURXS ZRUH E\ ZKLWHV %XW DOO WKHVH H[SODQDWLRQV QRWZLWKVWDQGLQJ LW VWLOO UHPDLQV WUXH WKDW D GLVSURSRUWLRQDWH VKDUH RI WKHVH SHRSOH \HDUV ROG RU ROGHU ZKR PDUULHG LQ $ODFKXD &RXQW\ } )ORULGD GXULQJ WKH \HDUV WR t LQFOXVLYH ZHUH EODFN DOWKRXJK WKH GLIIHUHQFH LV QRW JUHDW 7HVWLQJ RI WKH &HQWUDO +\SRWKHVLV 7KH PDMRU K\SRWKHVLV RI WKLV ZRUN ZDV WKDW D QHZ PDUULDJH FRQn WUDFWHG ODWH LQ OLIH ZLOO UHWDUG WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV 7KH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW XVHG DV RXWOLQHG SUHYLRXVO\ ZHUH OLIH VSDFH PHDVXUH I VFRUH UROH FRXQW DQG SHUFHLYHG OLIHVSDFH VFRUH VHH $SSHQGL[f 7KH GHFLVLRQ ZDV PDGH WKDW WKHUH PXVW EH D VLJQLILFDQW GLIn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fPRJR URZ6PLUQRY UXQV WHVW IRU FKL VTXDUH ZDV XVHG %ODORFN 6aRf ,Q WKRVH FDVHV ZKHUH D VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH ZDV QRWHG WKH FRQWLQJHQF\ FRHIILFLHQW &f

PAGE 56

,Q WKH VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VHV RI DOO GDWD WKH ORZHVW DFFHSWDEOH OHYHO RI FRQILGHQFH LV WKH XVXDO OHYHO $Q\ QRWHG GLIIHUHQFHV DUH QRW FRQVLGHUHG VLJQLILFDQW DW DQ\ ORZHU FRQILGHQFH OHYHO EXW DQ\ FOHDUO\ YLVLEOH GLIIHUHQFHV DOEHLW QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW DUH GLVFXVVHG 7KH ILUVW RI WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV ZDV WKH OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUH IUHTXHQF\ RU If VFRUH 7KLV ZDV EDVHG RQ f WKH QXPEHU RI RWKHUV LQ WKH KRXVHKROG ZKLFK ZDV PXOWLSOLHG E\ f f WKH QXPEHU RI FORVH UHODWLYHV QHLJKERUV DQG IULHQGV ZKLFK ZDV PXOWLSOLHG E\ LI VHHQ GDLO\ E\ LI VHHQ ZHHNO\ HWFf f WKH QXPEHU RI FRZRUNHUV RQH WDONV WR RQ WKH MRE LI WKH UHVSRQGHQW LV VWLOO HPSOR\HG ZKLFK ZDV PXOWLSOLHG E\ f DQG f WKH QXPEHU RI RWKHU SHRSOH VHHQ SHU ZHHN IRU FHUWDLQ VSHFLILF SXUSRVHV ZKLFK ZDV PXOWLSOLHG E\ f 7KH VXP EHFDPH WKH WRWDO OLIHVSDFH I VFRUH 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKLV ILUVW WHVW DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH ZKLFK UHIOHFWV D YLVLEOH UHODWLRQVKLS LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ SUHGLFWHG DOWKRXJK WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV IDLOHG WR DWWDLQ VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH 8SRQ FORVH LQVSHFWLRQ DOEHLW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZDV QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW WKH GDWD LQ WKH WDEOH UHYHDO WKDW QHDUO\ WZRWKLUGV SHUFHQWf RI WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS UHVSRQGHQWV ZHUH FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ WKH ORZHVW WZR LQWHUDFWLRQD FROXPQV ZKLOH OHVV WKDQ KDOI SHUFHQWf RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS UHVSRQGHQWV ZHUH SRVLWLRQHG WKHUH 7KLV YDV FRPSXWHG WR DVFHUWDLQ LI WKH VWUHQJWK RI UHODWLRQVKLS ZDV JUHDWHU LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO WKDQ LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS (GZDUGV f

PAGE 57

7DEOH 7KH /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUHV RI WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfrnn 7RWDO I 6FRUH RQ /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH *URXS r r *22 t 2YHU 7RWD ([SHULPHQWDO r 1 f f rf f rf f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ r 1 } f f f f f f f f L f f ; GI 3 7KH ILJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV UHSUHVHQW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV

PAGE 58

FOXVWHULQJ E\ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VXEMHFWV LQ WKH ORZHU FROXPQV FRQWLQXHG XQWLO WKH VFRUHV UHDFKHG ZLWK RYHU WKUHHIRXUWKV RI WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS YHUVXV OHVV WKDQ WZRWKLUGV RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS DFFRXQWHG IRU DW WKDW OHYHO :LWK WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH H[SHULn PHQWDO JURXS VFRULQJ EHWZHHQ DQG RQ WKH OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUH DQG WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VFRULQJ EHORZ LW GRHV VHHP WR EH WUXH WKDW WKH QHZO\ZHG DJHG VXEMHFWV LQWHUDFWHG PRUH ZLWK RWKHUV LQ WKH KRXVH UHODWLYHV IULHQGV QHLJKERUV FRZRUNHUV DQG RWKHU VSHFLILF SHRSOH LQ JHQHUDO WKDQ GLG WKH RWKHU DJHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKH VWXG\ 7KH VHFRQG RI WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WKH WRWDO UROH FRXQW 7KH WRWDO UROH FRXQW ZDV EDVHG RQ f QXPEHU LQ KRXVHKROG VFRUHG ]HUR LI UHVSRQGHQW OLYHV DORQH RQH SRLQW LI RQH RWKHU OLYHV ZLWK KLP DQG WZR SRLQWV LI WZR RU PRUH RWKHUV OLYH WKHUHf f QXPEHU RI FORVH IULHQGV UHODWLYHV DQG QHLJKERUV VFRUHG RQH SRLQW IRU DQ\ ]HUR IRU QRQHf f VSHFLILF Z SHRSOH VFRUHG RQH SRLQW LI DQ\ DUH VHHQ ]HUR IRU QRQHf Nf IHOORZ ZRUNHUV VFRUHG RQH SRLQW LI UHVSRQGHQW LV HPSOR\HG DW DOO QRQH LI QR ORQJHU ZRUNL QJf f FKXUFK VFRUHG RQH SRLQW LI DWWHQGV WZLFH D PRQWK RU RIWHQHU ]HUR LI DWWHQGV OHVV IUHTXHQWO\f DQG f FOXEV VFRUHG RQH SRLQW LI D PHPEHU RI DQ\ ]HUR LI D PHPEHU RI QRQHf 7KH VXP EHFRPHV WKH UROH FRXQW 7KH SRVVLEOH UDQJH LV WR +RZHYHU QR RQH LQ WKLV VWXG\ KDG D ]HUR UROH FRXQW 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH UROH FRXQW WHVW 7DEOH f WHQGHG WR VXSn SRUW WKH K\SRWKHVLV (YHQ WKRXJK WKH GLIIHUHQFHV IDLOHG WR DWWDLQ

PAGE 59

7DEOH 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQWV RI WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfn URXS 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW ([S 7RWD 0 f f f f f f f f f f f &RPS 1 Rf f f f f f f f f f f [ GI 3 A )LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH S 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HRXD H[DFWO\ UFHQWDJHV GXH WR URXQGLQJ VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH LW GRHV DSSHDU WKDW WKH DJHG QHZO\ZHGV KDG PRUH UROHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ QXPEHU RI FORVH IULHQGV UHODWLYHV QHLJKERUV IULHQGV FRZRUNHUV KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV DORQJ ZLWK FKXUFK DQG FOXE DFWLYLWLHV WKDQ KDG WKH RWKHU DJHG SHUVRQV WHVWHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ :KLOH OLWWOH GLIn IHUHQFH FDQ EH QRWHG LQ WKH ILUVW WZR FROXPQV WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH FRPSDU VRQ JURXS SODFHG LQ WKH PLGGOH FROXPQV DQG ZKHUHDV WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS IHOO LQ WKH KLJKHVW FROXPQV DQG 7KLV GRHV VHHP WR LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH QHZO\ZHG DJHG VXEMHFWV DSSHDU WR KDYH b b PRUH UROHV WKDQ WKH RWKHU DJHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKLV VWXG\ ,W FDQ DOVR EH REVHUYHG WKDW SHUFHQW RI WKH UHVSRQVHV IRU WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS IHOO LQ WKH aWKURXJK FODVVHV DV DJDLQVW RQO\ SHUFHQW IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS DQG WKDW ZKLOH SHUFHQW RU ZHOO RYHU KDOI RI WKH VXEMHFWV LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS UHSRUWHG UROHV RU IHZHU RQO\ SHUFHQW RU VRPHZKDW PRUH WKDQ D IRXUWK RI WKRVH LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO

PAGE 60

JURXS ZHUH OLPLWHG WR WKDW QXPEHU RI UROHV $OO WKLV HYLGHQFH SRLQWV LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI FRQILUPDWLRQ RI WKH K\SRWKHVHV HYHQ WKRXJK VWDn WLVWLFDOO\ WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI VDPSOLQJ YDULDELOLW\ DV WKH H[SODQDWLRQ FDQQRW EH UXOHG RXW 7KH WKLUG PHDVXUH RI HQJDJHPHQW XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WKH SHUn FHLYHG OLIHVSDFH VFRUH 7KH SHUFHL YHGf LIHVSDFH VFRUH ZDV EDVHG RQ WKH VXEMHFWnV HYDOXDWLRQ RI KLV LQWHUDFWLRQDO OHYHO DW DJH IRUW\ILYH LQ FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK KLV SUHVHQW OHYHO 7KH UHVSRQGHQW VFRUHG PRUH SRLQWV LI PRUH DFWLYH QRZ VRPH SRLQWV LI DFWLYLW\ OHYHO UHPDLQHG DERXW WKH VDPH DQG IHZHU SRLQWV LI KH ZDV PRUH DFWLYH LQ WKH SDVW 7KH SRVVLEOH UDQJH ZDV IURP WR VHH $SSHQGL[f 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH SHUFHLYHG OLIHVSDFH WHVW 7DEOH f GHPRQn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r 6LQFH WKH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DQG FRPSDULVRQ JURXSV FRXOG QRW EH VKRZQ WR EH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW LQ DQ\ RI WKH

PAGE 61

E 7DEOH 7KH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUHV RI WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf} UQXQ 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVRDFH i 6FRUH n 883 8/G ([S 1 ff f f f f f f f f &RPS 1 ff f f f f f f f f ; GI 3 A)LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHV HV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV WKUHH PHDVXUH RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG +RZHYHU WKHUH ZDV D WHQGHQF\ LQ WKH GDWD LQ DOO WKUHH WHVWV WRZDUG FRQILUPDWLRQ RI WKH FHQWUDO K\SRWKHVLV 7HVWLQJ RI WKH 6XEK\SRWKHVHV 6XEK\SRWKHVLV $ VWLSXODWHG WKDW PDUULHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKH FRPSDULn VRQ JURXS ZRXOG EH PRUH HQJDJHG WKDQ XQPDUULHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKDW JURXS 7KH UHVSRQVHV RI WKHVH VXEMHFWV ZHUH WDEXODWHG DQG DQDO\]HG LQ WKH VDPH PDQQHU DV ZDV WKH FDVH ZLWK WKH FHQWUDO K\SRWKHVLV )RU WKLV DQDO\VLV WKH ZLGRZHG GLYRUFHG DQG VHSDUDWHG FROXPQV VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH ZHUH FROODSVHG LQWR D VLQJOH XQPDUULHG FDWHJRU\ )RU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS WKHQ WKLV PHDQV t UHVSRQGHQWV bf DUH FODVVLILHG DV PDUULHG DQG E UHVSRQGHQWV ^Ebf DV XQPDUULHG VXEMHFWV $JDLQ WKH ILUVW PHDVXUH XVHG ZDV WKH OLIHVSDFH I VFRUH $ VWXG\ RI WKH WRWDO I VFRUH 7DEOH @Ef VKRZV WKDW WKH GDWD GHPRQVWUDWH D

PAGE 62

7DEOH 7KH /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUHV RI WKH 0DUULHG DQG 8QPDUULHG 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr *URXS f 7RWD I 6FRUH RQ /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH 7RWDO t RYHU 0DUULHG 1 f f f f f f f f f 8Q PDUULHG cc f f f f f f f f ; W Uf§ r nr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

PAGE 63

7DEOH 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQWV RI WKH +DUULHG DQG 8QPDUULHG 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH &RPSDULVRQ *URXS 3HUFHQWDJHVfn 0DULWDO 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW 7RWD 6WDWXV 0DUULHG 1 f f f f f f f f 8Q PDUULHG + f f f f f f f f ; GI )LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWK 7RWD SHUFHQWDJHV 3 HVHV GHQRWH GR QRW HTXDO FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQG LQJ VSHFLILF DFTXDLQWDQFHV UHODWLYHV QHLJKERUV FRZRUNHUV RWKHUV LQ WKH KRXVH DQG DUH PRUH DFWLYH LQ FOXEV DQG FKXUFK WKDQ WKH XQPDUULHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS HYHQ WKRXJK WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV ZHUH QRW VXIILFLHQWO\ GLIIHUHQW WR EH VLJQLILFDQW DW WKH DFFHSWDEOH OHYHO RI FRQILGHQFH +RQH RI WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VFRUHG KLJKHU WKDQ RQ WKH SHUn FHLYHG OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUH 7DEOH f 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQV VKRZ WKDW WKH FKDQFHV RI DQ XQPDUULHG VXEMHFW EHLQJ LQ WKH ORZHVW VFRUHG FROXPQ ZHUH PRUH WKDQ SHUFHQW JUHDWHU WKDQ IRU D PDUULHG VXEMHFW DQG WKH LQFLn GHQFH RI PDUULHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKH XSSHUPRVW FDWHJRU\ ZDV FRQVLGHUDEO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKDW RI WKH XQPDUULHG VXEMHFWV +HQFH WKH HOGHUO\ PDUULHG FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VXEMHFWV SHUFHLYH WKHPVHOYHV WR EH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH DFWLYH QRZ WKDQ GR WKH HOGHUO\ XQPDUULHG VXEMHFWV LQ WKDW JURXS 7KH

PAGE 64

7DEOH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUHV RI WKH +DUULHG DQG 8QPDUULHG 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH &RPSDULVRQ *URXS 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 0DULWD 7RWDO 3HUFH LYHG /L IHVSDFH 6FRUH 7RWDO 6WDWXV t 0DUULHG 1 f f f f f f f f f 8Q UQD U ULHG 1 f f f f f f f f f ; GI S A)LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQ 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GX WDJHV H WR URXQG L QJ GLIIHUHQFH ZDV LQVXIILFLHQW WR EH VLJQLILFDQW DW WKH DFFHSWDEOH FRQn ILGHQFH OHYHO KRZHYHU 6LQFH D GLIIHUHQFH LQ PDULWDO VWDWXV LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS ZDV QRW VKRZQ WR EH VLJQLILFDQW LQ DQ\ RI WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI GLVn HQJDJHPHQW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG $JDLQ KRZHYHU WKH GDWD GHPRQVWUDWHG D WHQGHQF\ LQ DOO WKUHH WHVWV WRZDUG FRQILUPn LQJ WKH K\SRWKHVLV 6XEK\SRWKHVLV % PDLQWDLQHG WKDW IHPDOH VXEMHFWV LQ WKH H[SHULn PHQWDO JURXS ZLOO EH PRUH HQJDJHG WKDQ PDOH VXEMHFWV LQ WKDW JURXS 7KH OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUH UHVXOWV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW $ VWXG\ RI WKH GDWD ZLWKLQ WKH WDEOH VKRZV WKDW WKH\ DSSHDU QHLWKHU WR FRQILUP QRU WR GHQ\ WKLV LQFRQFOXVLYHQHVV

PAGE 65

7DEOH 7KH /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUHV RI WKH 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH ([SHULPHQWDO *URXS 0DOH DQG )HPDOH 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 7RWDO I 6FRUH RQ /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH 6H[ 7RWDO RR t n 2YHU 0D H I0Of f f f f f f f f )HULD H 1 f f f : f f f f f f f &1 ,, &0 ; GI 3 9 f R FQ )L JXUDV LQ SDUHQWKHVH V GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SH UFHQ WDJHV 7RWDO S HUFHQWD THV GR QRW HD L X D H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 7KH UROH FRXQW E\ VH[ LV GHSLFWHG LQ 7DEOH 7KH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV ZHUH QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW 7KH SHUn FHQWDJH RI PDOHV ZDV JUHDWHU LQ WKH ORZHU WKUHH UROH FRXQW FROXPQV EXW 7DEOH 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQWV RI WKH 0DOH DQG )HPDOH 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH ([SHULPHQWDO *URXS 3HUFHQWDJHVf 6H[ 7RWD 5RO H &RXQW f b 7RWDO 0D H 1 Of f f f f f f f f ff )HPDH 1 f f f f &f f f ff ff ; GI 3! f A)LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GH QRWH FXPXODWLY H SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWD SH UFHQ WDJH GRHV QRW HTXD H[DFW \ GXH WR URXQG L QJ r

PAGE 66

ZDV DOVR JUHDWHU LQ WKH WKUHH KLJKHU UROH FRXQW FROXPQV 7KH SHUn FHQWDJH RI IHPDOHV ZDV JUHDWHU LQ WKH PLGGOH WKUHH UROH FRXQW FROXPQV 7KH ZHLJKW RI WKH H[WUHPHV FDQFHOV RXW WKH ZHLJKW RI WKH PHDQ DQG WKH GDWD UHPDLQ LQFRQFOXVLYH 7KH SHUFHLYHG OLIHVSDFH VFRUH E\ VH[ LV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH 7DEOH 7KH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUHV RI WKH 0DOH DQG )HPDOH 6XEMHFWV LQ WKH ([SHULPHQWDO *URXS 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH 6H[ LRWDO 0D H 1 Of f f f f f f f f f )HPH H 1 f f f f f f f f f f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

PAGE 67

7HVWLQJ RI WKH :RUNLQJ +\SRWKHVHV DQG &RURO D UL HV 7KH ILUVW ZRUNLQJ K\SRWKHVLV VWLSXODWHG WKDW WKH JUHDWHU WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ WKH DJHG VXEMHFWV KDYH LQ HLWKHU JURXS WKH OHVV ZLOO EH WKHLU GLVHQJDJHPHQW 7KH LQLWLDO FRUROODU\ VWLSXODWHG WKDW LI WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV FDQ EH UHMHFWHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS Zc EH VWURQJHU LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS WKDQ LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS $ EUHDNGRZQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ LQ ERWK JURXSV LV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH $V FDQ EH VHHQ PRUH RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS KDG QR 7DEOH 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOGUHQ LQ WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf *URXS 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOGUHQ 7RWD A RU 0RUH ([S 1 f f f f f f f f f f f f &RPS 1 f fff ffffffff )LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ FKLOGUHQ 7KH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS DOVR KDG D JUHDWHU LQFLGHQFH RI IRXU RU PRUH FKLOGUHQ ZLWK SHUFHQW GLVWULEXWHG LQ WKRVH FROXPQV ZLWK SHUFHQW IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS 7KH ODVW ILYH FROXPQV DUH FROODSVHG LQWR D VLQJOH RU PRUH FDWHJRU\ IRU 7DEOHV DQG

PAGE 68

7DEOH 7RWDO /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOGUHQ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 1XPEHU RI *URXS 7RWDO /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH /LYLQJ e &KL OGUHQ r 2YHU 7RWDO ([SHULPHQWD 1 Of f f f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f ([SHULPHQWDO 1 f f f f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f ([SHULPHQWD 1 f f f f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f Rf

PAGE 69

RU UURUH ([SHULPHQWD 1 f f f f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f ([SHU L PHQWD 1 f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1f§f f f f f f f f f ([SHULPHQWD 1 OOf f f f f f f f &RPSDU VRQ 1 f RRf f f f f f f %RWK *URXSV ; GI 3 f ([SH ULPHQWD URXS ; G I 3 &RPSDULVRQ *URXS ; GI 3 )LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV UHSUHVHQW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWD SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ FOXH WR URXQGLQJ

PAGE 70

7DEOH 9+ &2 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW E\ 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOGUHQ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOG UHQ *URXS 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW 7RWD ([SHU L PHQWD 1 Of f f f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f f f f f ([SH UL PHQWD 1f f f f f f f f f f ,&2 f &RPSDULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f f f f ([SHUO PHQWDO 1 f f f f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1 Of f f n f f f f f f f f

PAGE 71

RUAPRUH ([SHU L PHQWD 1 f f f f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f f f f ([SHULPHQWD 1 f f f f f RRf f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f f f f f ([SH UL PHQWD 1 OOf f f f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f f f f %RWK *URXSV ; GI S f ([SHULPHQWDO *URXS ;A GI N2 S \ &RPSDULVRQ *URXS ;A } GI 3 A )LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ

PAGE 72

7DEOH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH E\ 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ &KLOGUHQ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 1XPEHU RI f *URXS 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH /LYLQJ &KL GUHQ 7RWD ([SHULPHQWDOr 1 f f f f f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQr 1 f f f f f f f f f ([SHULPHQWD 1 f $f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f Z f ([SHULPHQWDO 1 f f f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQr 1 f N f f f f f f f f

PAGE 73

RU PRUH ([SHULPHQWDO 1 f f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f f ([SHULPHQWDO 1 f  f f f f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQ 1 f RRf f f f f f f f ([SHULPHQWDOr 1 Qf f f f f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQ 1 f f f f n f f f f f %RWK *URXSV GI S & ([SHULPHQWDO *URXSV GI S & &RPSDULVRQ *URXS ; GI S & )LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV UHSUHVHQW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ

PAGE 74

7KH GLVWULEXWLRQV LQ 7DEOHV DQG ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW DQG WKH GDWD LQ WKHP RQ EHLQJ VFUXWLQL]HG DSSHDU WR UHIOHFW WKH DEVHQFH RI WKH SUHGLFWHG UHODWLRQVKLS $OO WKH FKL VTXDUHV SURn GXFHG IURP 7DEOH YHUH VLJQLILFDQW EXW VLQFH D GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ ZDV VKRZQ WR EH VLJQLILFDQW RQ RQO\ RQH RXW RI WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG %\ GHILQLWLRQ WKLV DOVR PDNHV WKH FRUROODU\ XQWHQDEOH +RZHYHU ZKHQ D & WHVW ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ WKH FKL VTXDUHV IURP WKH RQH PHDVXUH ZKLFK SURGXFHG D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LW ZDV VKRZQ WKDW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZDV VWURQJHU IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS r WKDQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS ZKLFK LV LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RSSRVLWH IURP WKH SUHGLFWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH WKRXJK WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ GLG SURYH WR EH D VLJQLILFDQW YDULDEOH RQ RQH PHDVXUH RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW SHUFHLYHG LIHVSDFHf VR WKHUH H[LVWV D SDUWLDO WHQGHQF\ WRZDUG WKH FRQILUPDWLRQ RI WKH K\SRWKHn VLV 6XUSULVLQJO\ KRZHYHU WKRXJK WKH GDWD WHQG WRZDUG DIILUPDWLRQ RI WKH K\SRWKHVLV LQ JHQHUDO WKH\ DOVR VHHP WR UHIXWH WKH FRUROODU\ +HQFH LW DSSHDUV DW OHDVW LQ SDUW WKDW FKLOGUHQ LQWHUIHUH ZLWK WKH f f GLVHQJDJHPHQW SURFHVV RI DOO DJHG SHRSOH EXW PRUH VR ZLWK ROGHU SHRSOH ZKR DUH QRW LQ D QHZ PDUULDJH VLWXDWLRQ 7KLV SDUWLFXODU VWXG\ GLG QRW JDWKHU DQ\ H[SODQDWRU\ GDWD RQ WKLV VLWXDWLRQ EXW LW PD\ EH VSHFXODWHG WKDW ROG SHRSOH ZKR KDYH FORVH DQG IUHTXHQW LQWHUDFWLRQDO UH DWLRQVKLSV ZLWK WKHLU FKLOGUHQ PLJKW WHQG WR UHPDUU\ OHVV ODWH LQ OLIH SHUKDSV WR NHHS WKH RULJLQDO IDPLO\ PHPRU\ LQWDFW RU HYHQ

PAGE 75

SHUKDSV PHUHO\ IRU HVWDWH SXUSRVHV ZKHUHDV DQ ROG SHUVRQ ZLWKRXW FORVH IDPLO\ WLHV PD\ WHQG PRUH WR PDUU\ DJDLQ VLPSO\ IRU FRPSDQLRQn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fr *URXS 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6LE LQJV 7RWDO RU A f PRUH ([S 1 f $f f f f f f f f f f &RPS 1 Rf f f f f f f f f f f f A)LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV I7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 7KH GDWD LQGLFDWH WKDW WKHUH ZDV YHU\ OLWWOH YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV EHWZHHQ WKH WZR JURXSV 7KH ODVW WKUHH FROXPQV ZHUH FROODSVHG LQWR D VLQJOH RU PRUH FODVVLILFDWLRQ IRU WKH QH[W

PAGE 76

WKUHH WDEOHV 7KHVH GLVWULEXWLRQV WKHQ RQ WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW E\ WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOHV G DQG 7DEOH 7RWDO /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6LEOLQJV IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 1XPEHU RI 7RWDO /L IHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH 7D, Q /LYLQJ 6 L ELQJV FU PRUH /D L 1 f f f f 6f f f f f f 1 f f f f f f ff f f 1 f f f f ffff f f O 1 f f f f f f f f f f 1 f f f f f f f f f f 1 f f f f f fff f f 1 f f f fffff f f RU PRUH 1 f f f f f f f f f f ; GI 3 & A)LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV UHSUHVHQW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ

PAGE 77

7KH FRQWLQJHQF\ FRHIILFLHQW RI ZKLFK ZDV FDOFXODWHG IRU 7DEOH LV LQGLFDWLYH RI D PRGHUDWHO\ VWURQJ UHODWLRQVKLS $OWKRXJK WKH WDEXODWLRQ VXPPDUL]HV WKH GDWD IRU ERWK JURXSV FRPELQHG FKL VTXDUHV ZHUH FRPSXWHG IURP WKH UDZ GDWD RQ HDFK JURXS VHSDUDWHO\ IRU WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS LW ZDV VLJQLILFDQW DW WKH OHYHO ZKLOH IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS DORQH LW ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW )URP WKLV LW DSSHDUV LQ WKLV ILUVW WHVW DW OHDVW WKDW WKH GDWD WHQG WR GHPRQn VWUDWH D UHODWLRQVKLS DQG WKDW LW LV LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ SUHGLFWHG 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH VHFRQGn WHVW RQ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV WR WKH WRWDO UROH FRXQW DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH $JDLQ DOWKRXJK 7DEOH RQO\ VXPPDUL]HV WKH GDWD IRU ERWK JURXSV FKL VTXDUHV YLHUH FRPSXWHG RQ WKH UDZ GDWD IRU HDFK JURXS DORQH KRZHYHU QHLWKHU FKL VTXDUH ZDV RI VXIILFLHQW PDJQLWXGH WR EH VLJQLILn FDQW DW WKH OHYHO RI FRQILGHQFH 7KH RXWFRPH RI WKH SHUFHLYHG LIHVSDFH VFRUH E\ WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV LV GHSLFWHG LQ 7DEOH $V LQ 7DEOHV DQG WKH GLVWUL EXWLRQV LQ 7DEOH UHSUHVHQW WKH WRWDO IRU ERWK WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DQG FRPSDULVRQ JURXSV WDNHQ WRJHWKHU KRZHYHU WKH FKL VTXDUH VWDWLVWLF ZDV DJDLQ FRPSXWHG RQ WKH UDZ GDWD IURP HDFK JURXS E\ LWVHOI DQG LQ ERWK FDVHV WKH FKL VTXDUH SURGXFHG ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW DW WKH DFFHSWDn EOH FRQILGHQFH OHYHO 6LQFH D GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV ZDV VKRZQ WR EH VLJQLILFDQW IRU ERWK JURXSV LQ RQO\ RQH RXW RI WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW DQG WKLV UHODWLRQVKLS KHOG LWV VLJQLILFDQFH IRU RQO\ RQH

PAGE 78

7DEOH E 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG E\ WQ 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6LEOLQJV IRU %RWK &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVf 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6  E L Q J 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW 7RWDO V f f f ffff f f f f 1 f RRf f ffff ffff 1 f f f ffff fcfff 1 f f f f f Vff f f f 6f 1 f f f fff f ffff 1 f f f f f f f ff&ff 1 f f f f f f fffff RU PRUH 1 f f f f ff f fffcf ; c GI S )LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ

PAGE 79

7DEOH 7KH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH E\ WKH 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6LEOLQJV IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVfnnrn 1XPEHU RI /LYLQJ 6LELQJV 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH f 7RWDO 1 f f f f f f f f f 1 f f f f f f f f f f 1 f f f f f f f f f f 1 f f f f f f f f f f 1 f f f f f f f f f f 1 f f f f f f f f f f 1 f f f f f ff f f f RU PRUH f f f f f f f f f 0 Rf ; GI 3 f)LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHSLFW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV fI7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ

PAGE 80

WKH JURXSV WDNHQ VHSDUDWHO\f WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG %\ GHILQLWLRQ WKLV DOVR PDNHV WKH FRUROODU\ XQWHQDEOH +RZHYHU WKH UHVXOWV RI RQH WHVW OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUH I VFRUHf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n GHQFH 7DEOH f GLG QRW YDU\ HQRXJK WR DFKLHYH VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH 7KH GDWD RQ H[DPLQDWLRQ GR QRW VHHP WR UHYHDO DQ\ GHJUHH RI UHODWLRQ D VKLS KHQFH WKH ODFN RI VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH DSSHDUV WR EH FRUURn ERUD WHG 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH UROH FRXQW GHYLFH E\ UXUDOXUEDQ UHVLGHQFH DUH H[KLELWHG LQ 7DEOH (YHQ WKRXJK WKH FKL VTXDUH VWDWLVWLF JHQHUDWHG IURP WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW WKH UXUDO UHn VSRQGHQWV OHG WKH XUEDQ RQHV LQ WKH WKUHH ORZHU UROH FRXQW FROXPQV DQG

PAGE 81

7DEOH 7RWDO /LIHVSDFF 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ 5XUDO DQG 8UEDQ 5HVLGHQFH IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVfr f 5HVL GHQ FF 7RWDO /LIFVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH 7RWDO f e A B RYHU 8UEDQ 1 f f f f f f fffff 5XUDO 1 f f f f f f f f ff f ; GI S )LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHSLFW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 7DEOH 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW E\ 5XUDO DQG 8UEDQ 5HVLGHQFH IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVf 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW GHQFH ORWDO 8UEDQ 1 f f f f f f f f f ff 5XUD 1 f f f f f f f ff ff f &0 f &0 GI 3 f )LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV W7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ

PAGE 82

WKH XUEDQ UHVSRQGHQWV OHG WKH UXUDO RQHV LQ WKH WKUHH KLJKHU UROH FRXQW FROXPQV 7KLV VHHPV WR JLYH VXSSRUW WR WKH K\SRWKHVLV DQG LQ WKH SUHn GLFWHG GLUHFWLRQ 7KH FKL VTXDUH FRPSXWHG IURP WKH WKLUG WHVW LQYROYLQJ WKH SHUn FHLYHG LIHVSDFH VFRUH E\ UXUDO RU XUEDQ UHVLGHQFH RI WKH VXEMHFWV ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW DQG WKH GDWD ZLWKLQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV DOVR DSSHDU QRW W U! GHPRQVWUDWH WKH SUHGLFWHG SDWWHUQ ODEOH fr 7DEOH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH E\ 5XUDO DQG 8UEDQ 5HVLGHQFH IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 5HV L GHQFH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH L RWD 8UEDQ 0 f f V R 92 f f f f f fff 5XUD 1 f f f f f f f ffff ; GI 3 r )cJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV GHSLFW FXPXODWLYH S H UFHQWDJHV 6LQFH DQ XUEDQUXUDO GLIIHUHQFH ZDV QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ GHPRQVWUDWHG WR EH VLJQLILFDQW IRU DQ\ RI WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG %\ GHILQLWLRQ WKLV DOVR PDNHV WKH FRUROn ODU\ XQWHQDEOH +RZHYHU RQ RQH PHDVXUH UROH FRXQWf WKHUH VHHPHG WR EH D VOLJKW LQGLFDWLRQ LQ WKH GDWD WRZDUG FRQILUPDWLRQ RI WKH K\SRWKHVLV ZKLFK

PAGE 83

f VXJJHVWV WKDW DJHG SHUVRQV OLYLQJ LQ FLWLHV GR WHQG WR KDYH PRUH FRQn WDFWV ZLWK RWKHU SHRSOH RQ D UHJXODU EDVLV WKDQ HOGHUO\ SHRSOH OLYLQJ LQ WKH FRXQWU\ 7KH IRXUWK ZRUNLQJ K\SRWKHVLV VWDWHG WKDW WKH VXEMHFWV LQ ERWK JURXSV ZKR KDYH VSRXVHV XQGHU WKH DJH RI ZLOO EH PRUH HQJDJHG WKDQ WKH VXEMHFWV ZKRVH VSRXVHV DUH \HDUV RI DJH RU ROGHU 7KH FRUROODU\ VWLSXn ODWHG WKDW LI D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LV QRWHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLOO EH VWURQJHU LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO WKDQ LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS 7KH RXWFRPH RI WKH LIHVSDFH PHDVXUH I VFRUH E\ WKH DJH RI VSRXVH IRU WKH VXEMHFWV RI ERWK JURXSV FRPELQHG LV GLVSOD\HG LQ 7DEOH 7KRXJK 7DEOH 7RWDO /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ $JH RI 6SRXVH IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 7RWD /LIHVSDFH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH @ n t RYHU 7RWD RU YHU 1 f f f f f f f f f f 8QGHU Q 0 f f f f f f f f f ; GI S A)LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV UHSUHVHQW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQJDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV ZHUH QRW GLIIHUHQW HQRXJK WR EH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW DW WKH DFFHSWDEOH OHYHO RI FRQILGHQFH ZLWK PRUH WKDQ KDOI RI WKH VXEMHFWV

PAGE 84

ZLWK VSRXVHV RYHU \HDUV ROG IDOOLQJ LQWR WKH WZR ORZHU FROXPQV RQ WKH WDEOH DQG WKH VXEMHFWV ZLWK \RXQJHU VSRXVHV OHDGLQJ RQ DOO WKH KLJKHU FROXPQV WKH FRQILJXUDWLRQ RI GDWD VHHPV WR OHQG VXSSRUW WR WKH K\SRWKHn VLV 6LPS LVWLFD\ WKLV PHDQV WKDW WKH \RXQJHU WKH VSRXVH DQ DJHG SHUVRQ KDV WKH PRUH SHRSOH KH ZLOO NQRZ 7DEOH SUHVHQWV WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH UROH FRXQW WHVW E\ DJH RI 7DEOH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW E\ $JH RI 6SRXVH IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 6HSDUDWHO\ DQG &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVfr $JH RI 6SRXVH*URXr 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW 7RWD L RU ([S 2OGHU 1 f f f ffffffff &RPS 1 f f f f f $L_f f f f f f %RWKI 1 f ff fff f f ff,&2f 8QGHU ([G f &2 &0 -O R Y2 ff f fff f fff &RPSW 1 f ff fffr ffff %RWK + f ff f fff f f f f %RWK *URXSV ; GI S! ([SH UL PHQWD *URXS ; GI S &RPSDULVRQ *URXS [ GI S! r)LJXUHV LQ SDUHQWKHVHV UHSUHVHQW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ r

PAGE 85

VSRXVH 7KH VLWXDWLRQ LQWURGXFHG KHUH LV XQXVXDO LQ WKDW WKH GLVWULEXn WLRQV IRU ERWK JURXSV FRPELQHG SURYHG QRW WR YDU\ VXIILFLHQWO\ WR EH VWDW LVWLFD\ VLJQLILFDQW ZKLFK WHQGV WR UHIXWH WKH K\SRWKHVLV DQG WKH GDWD LQ WKH WDEOH GR QRW VHHP WR FRQWUDGLFW WKLV ILQGLQJ +RZHYHU ZKHQ WDNHQ VHSDUDWHO\ WKH FKL VTXDUH IRU WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS ZDV VWDWLVWLn FDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW ZKLOH LW ZDV QRW IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS 7KLV FDQ RQO\ EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV VXSSRUWLYH RI WKH FRUROODU\ ZKLFK PHDQV WKDW DJHG QHZO\ZHGV ZLWK \RXQJ VSRXVHV WHQG WR EH PRUH DFWLYH LQ FKXUFK DQG FOXEV DQG KDYH PRUH IULHQGV DFTXDLQWDQFHV QHLJKERUV UHODWLYHV FR ZRUNHUV DQG RWKHUV LQ WKH KRXVH WKDQ GR DJHG SHRSOH LQ JHQHUDO ZKR DOVR KDYH \RXQJ VSRXVHV 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQV UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH SHUFHLYHG LIHVSDFH VFRUH PHDVXUH E\ DJH RI VSRXVH DSSHDU LQ 7DEOH r 1RWZLWKVWDQGLQJ WKDW WKH 7DEOH 7KH 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH E\ $JH RI 6SRXVH IRU %RWK WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV &RPELQHG 3HUFHQWDJHVfr $JH RI 6SRXVH 7RWD 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVRDFH f 6FRUH 7RWD RU 2YHU 1 f f 6f f f f f f f 8QGHU 1 f f f f f f f f f ; GI 3 3DUHQWKHWLFDO ILJXUHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SH UFHQ WDJHV

PAGE 86

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nVWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW IRU ERWK JURXSV LQ DQ\ RI WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG %\ GHILQLWLRQ WKLV DOVR PDNHV WKH FRUROODU\ XQWHQDEOH +RZHYHU RQ WZR RI WKH PHDVXUHV OLIHVSDFH I VFRUH DQG SHUFHLYHG LIHVSDFH VFRUHf WKH GDWD DIWHU LQVSHFn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r f 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH UROH FRXQW WHVW E\ UDFH IRU DOO VXEMHFWV 7DEOH f VKRZHG WKDW WKH WZR JURXSV GLG QRW YDU\ HQRXJK WR SURGXFH D

PAGE 87

7DEOH c 7KH /LIHVSD FH 0HDVXUH I 6FRUH E\ SHUFHQWDJHVf 5DFH IR } f f b U $O 6XEMHFWV b 5DFH 7RWDO /L IHVSDFH I 6FRUH 7QI 2 t RYHU :KLWHU ORRL 1 f f f f f f f f fff %ODFNr 1 f f f f f f f ffff f ; GI S n3DUHQWKHWcFDO ILJXUHV UHSUHVHQW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 7DEOH 7KH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQWV E\ 5DFH IRU $OO 6XEMHFWV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 5DFH 7RWDO 5ROH &RXQW 7 W RWD :K  WHI 1 rmf f f f f f f ffff % ODFN 1 f f f f f f f f fff ; GI S 3DUHQWKHWLFDO ILJXUHV GHSLFW FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ f§ f§ Lf§ f§ P a A A A D 0 ‘ BPBP f§a A n f } ‘ A a A A rnArrr

PAGE 88

VLJQLILFDQW FKL VTXDUH VWDWLVWLF DQG WKH GDWD RQ EHLQJ H[DPLQHG DOVR IDLOHG WR VKRZ D GHPRQVWUDEOH GLIIHUHQFH 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH ILQDO WHVW SHUFHLYHG LIHVSDFHf DUH GHn SLFWHG LQ 7DEOH 7KHVH GLVWULEXWLRQV DOVR SURYHG QRW WR EH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW DW WKH DFFHSWDEOH OHYHO RI FRQILGHQFH DQG WKH GDWD ZLWKLQ WKH WDEOH GR QRW DSSHDU WR LQGLFDWH D FOHDU SDWWHUQ 7DEOH 7KH 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH IRU $OO 6XEMHFWV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 7RWDO 3HUFHLYHG /LIHVSDFH 6FRUH 5DFH 7RWDO OK L WH 1 f f f f f f f ffff DFN 1 f f f f f f f f fff ; GI S r3DUHQWKHWLFD ILJXUHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJH U7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFW\O242 GXH WR URXQGLQJ 6LQFH D UDFLDO GLIIHUHQFH ZDV QRW GHPRQVWUDWHG DV D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW YDULDEOH RQ WKH EDVLV RI DQ\ RI WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHn PHQW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG %\ GHILQLWLRQ WKLV DOVR PDNHV WKH FRUROODU\ XQWHQDEOH ,Q DGGLWLRQ QRQH RI WKH WKUHH GLVWULEXn WLRQV SURYLGHG HYLGHQFH WR UHSXGLDWH WKLV SRVLWLRQ

PAGE 89

%HFDXVH WKLV VWXG\ FRQVWUXFWHG IRUPDOL]HG K\SRWKHVHV IRU WHVWn LQJ LW KDG WR EH FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH RI WKH UHODn WLRQVKLSV EDVHG RQ WKLV QRQH RI WKH IRUPXODWLRQV SURYHG WHQDEOH +RZHYHU D IHZ RI WKH FKL VTXDUHV FDOFXODWHG ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW DQG VHYHUDO FRQILJXUDWLRQV RI WKH GDWD DSSHDUHG WR LQGLFDWH WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D UHODn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n PHQW OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUH I VFRUH DQG SHUFHLYHG OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUHf EXW QHLWKHU WHVW UHVXOWHG LQ D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW UHODWLRQVKLS 7KH K\SRWKHVLV DVVHUWLQJ WKDW D ODUJH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ VKRXOG WHQG WR UHWDUG DQ DJHG SHUVRQnV GLVHQn JDJHPHQW UHFHLYHG SDUWLDO VXSSRUW EHFDXVH ZKHQ WHVWHG E\ WKH SHUFHLYHG OLIHVSDFH VFRUH D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILn FDQW UHODWLRQVKLS ZDV WKH UHVXOW 7KH K\SRWKHVLV DVVHUWLQJ WKDW D ODUJH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV VKRXOG WHQG WR UHWDUG DQ DJHG SHUVRQnV GLVn HQJDJHPHQW UHFHLYHG SDUWLDO VXSSRUW EHFDXVH ZKHQ WHVWHG E\ WKH OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUH I VFRUH WKH UHVXOWDQW FKL VTXDUH VWDWLVWLF ZDV VLJQLILFDQW

PAGE 90

7KH K\SRWKHVLV DVVHUWLQJ WKDW WKH XUEDQ HOGHUO\ VKRXOG EH OHVV GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ WKH UXUDO HOGHUO\ UHFHLYHG D GHJUHH RI VXSSRUW EHFDXVH WKH FRQILJXUDWLRQ RI GDWD RQ WKH UROH FRXQW WHVW H[KLELWHG D WHQGHQF\ WRZDUG FRQILUPDn WLRQ DOWKRXJK WKH YDULDQFH EHWZHHQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV ZDV QRW JUHDW HQRXJK WR SURGXFH D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILn FDQW UHODWLRQVKLS 7KH K\SRWKHVLV DVVHUWLQJ WKDW ZRPHQ VKRXOG EH OHVV GLVn HQJDJHG WKDQ PHQ ZDV FDWHJRULFD \ GLVSURYHQ VLQFH QRQH RI WKH WKUHH WHVWV JHQHUDWHG D VLJQLILFDQW VWDWLVWLF DQG QRQH RI WKH GDWD FRQILJXUDWLRQV VHHPHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH DQ\ REVHUYDEOH SDWWHUQLQJ 7KH K\SRWKHVLV DVVHUWLQJ WKDW ZKLWHV VKRXOG EH OHVV GLVn HQJDJHG WKDQ EODFNV ZDV DOVR FDWHJRULFDOO\ GLVSURYHQ VLQFH QRQH RI WKH WKUHH WHVWV JHQHUDWHG D VLJQLILFDQW VWDWLVWLF DQG QRQH RI WKH GDWD FRQILJXUDWLRQ VHHPHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH DQ\ REVHUYDEOH SDWWHUQLQJ :LWK UHJDUGV WR WKH ILYH FRUROODULHV DOO KDYH WR EH FRQVLGHUHG GLVSURYHQ VLQFH QRQH RI WKHLU K\SRWKHVHV ZHUH FDWHJRULFD\ SURYHQ KRZHYHU D VXPPDU\ RI WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI WKH WHVWLQJ RQ WKH FRUROODULHV IROORZV 7KH FRUROODU\ ZKLFK VWLSXODWHG WKDW WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS VXEMHFWV ZLWK \RXQJ VSRXVHV VKRXOG EH OHVV GLVn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

PAGE 91

7KH FRUROODU\ ZKLFK VWLSXODWHG WKDW ZKLWH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS VXEMHFWV ZRXOG EH OHVV GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ ZKLWH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VXEMHFWV DOVR GLG QRW DWWDLQ VWDWLVWLn FDO VLJQLILFDQFH RQ DQ\ RI WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQn JDJHPHQW DQG QRQH RI WKH FRQILJXUDWLRQV RI GDWD DSSHDUHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH DQ\ REVHUYDEOH SDWWHUQLQJ 7KH FRUROODU\ ZKLFK VWLSXODWHG WKDW WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS VXEMHFWV ZLWK WKH VDPH QXPEHU RI FKLOGUHQ DV FRPn SDULVRQ JURXS VXEMHFWV VKRXOG EH OHVV GLVHQJDJHG ZDV DFWXDOO\ ERUQH RXW LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RSSRVLWH IURP WKDW SUHGLFWHG 7KH FKL VTXDUH WHVWV SHUIRUPHG RQ WKH GLVn WULEXWLRQV IRU WKH SHUFHLYHG LIHVSDFH VFRUH ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW IRU ERWK JURXSV EXW WKH FRQWLQJHQF\ FRHIn ILFLHQWV VKRZHG WKDW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZDV VWURQJHU IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS 2I WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW XVHG HDFK SURGXFHG WKUHH RI WKH QLQH DSSDUHQWO\ UHODWHG FRQILJXUDWLRQV RI GDWD %XW RI WKH VL[ WHVWV ZKLFK ZHUH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW WKH SHUFHLYHG OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUH SURGXFHG WKUHH WKH UROH FRXQW PHDVXUH WZR DQG WKH LIHVSDFH PHDVXUH I VFRUH RQO\ RQH

PAGE 92

&+$37(5 )285 'LVFXVVLRQ 7KH SUHFHGLQJ FKDSWHU VXJJHVWHG WKDW DOWKRXJK QRQH RI WKH K\SRWKHVHV ZDV ERUQH RXW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ WR DQ DFFHSWDEOH OHYHO RI FRQILGHQFH WKHUH VWLOO PLJKW EH VRPH GHJUHH RI DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH YDULDEOHV WHVWHG +RZHYHU} WKHUH PD\ KDYH EHHQ VRPH EXLOWLQ ELDV WKDW FRXOG DFFRXQW IRU WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ GLVHQJDJHPHQW WKDW ZHUH QRWLFHG EHWZHHQ WKH VDPSOHV 7KUHH H[DPSOHV RI SRVVLEOH ELDV DUH SUHVHQWHG 7KH\ DUH WKH DJH GLIIHUHQn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nV DQG nV ZKLOH D VDPSOH RI DJHG SHRSOH VHOHFWHG ZLWKRXW UHn JDUG WR SUHVHQW PDULWDO VWDWXV RU OHQJWK RI WLPH LQ WKDW VWDWXV ZRXOG KHYH

PAGE 93

SUR? U UH Q W D SRUWLRQHWR VXHU H RI SHRSOH RYD U F2 \HDUV RI DJH 7KLV WR EH WKH FDVH 7DEOH f : WOL PRUH WK DQ D WKLUG RI JURXS VWLOO LQ WKHLU HDU \ 62 V DQG Q F QH RI WKDW JURXS L QHOGHG UHDGLHG LHLU WK ELUWKGD\fZKLOH RQO\ D IRXUWK RI WKH FDPSDU c VRQ JURXS ROG DQG VLQFH JURXS EH L UJ RYHU 62 \ XI f L F L RQW\ WR EH VWD Y H D U V VLJQLILFDQW LW PXVW EH DVVXPHG WKDW WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS KDG D EXLOWLQ ELDV WRZDUG GLVHQJDJHPHQW DEOH $J H RI WLLH 3DVRRQGHQWV I RU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RUSDU L VRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVf *URWr R I $JH RI 5RVH RQGHQ WV f 7F WD 6K %R t RYHU ([SHLr PHQWD Qn f f f f &f f f &RPSV ULVHQ 1 f R`a f f f f f f rr GI r 3 D UDQ WKHQ cFDO I c J X UHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SH UFHQ WDJHV f9DUDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 1XPEHU RI 2WKHUV LQ +RXVHKROG 7KH QXPEHU RI RWKHU SHUVRQV LQ WKH VXEMHFWnV KRXVHKROG LV D NH\ TXHVWLRQ XVHG L UZR RI WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW VHH $SSHQGL[ $f ,W LV SODXVLEOH WKDW QHZO\ QDUULHGV EHFDXVH WKH\ DUH DW OHDVW D WZRVRPH

PAGE 94

PLJKW DYHUDJH FXW PXFK KLJKHU RQ WKH QXPEHU RI RWKHUV LQ WKH KRXVHKROG WKDQ RWKHU QRQ L QVWLWXWLRQDL]HG DJHG SHRSOH JHQHUDOO\ 7KLV SURYHG WR EH WKH FDVH 7DEOH f 7DEOH 1XPEHU RI 2WKHUV LQ WKH +RXVHKROG IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr *URXS 1XPEHU RI 2WKHUV LQ +RXVH 7RWDO L $ RU PRUH ([SHUcPHQWD 1 f f f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQ F 1 f f f f f f f [ GI S r3DUHQWKHWLFD ILJXUHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 7KH ILQGLQJV IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS FRPSDUH IDYRUDEO\ ZLWK WKH QDWLRQDO DYHUDJHV ZKLFK VKRZ WKDW SHUFHQW RI WKH SHRSOH RYHU OLYH DORQH A SHUFHQW OLYH ZLWK RQH RWKHU LQ WKH KRXVH DQG SHUFHQW OLYH ZLWK WZR RU PRUH RWKHU SHRSOH LQ WKH KRXVH $JLQJ r DQG 6f 7KHVH ILJXUHV DOVR FORVHO\ SDUDOOHO WKRVH RI *UHDW %ULWLDQ ZKHUH SHUn FHQW RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ RYHU OLYH DORQH DQG r SHUFHQW OLYH ZLWK RQH RU PRUH RWKHU SHUVRQV LQ WKH KRXVH 7XQVWDOO Af ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS GDWD VKRZHG SHUFHQW OLYLQJ DORQH RU ZLWK RQH RWKHU r IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXSf DQG SHUFHQW

PAGE 95

KDYLQJ WZR RU PRUH RWKHU SHUVRQV OLYLQJ LQ WKH KRXVH ZLWK WKHP SHUFHQW IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXSf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n SRUWLRQDWH QXPEHU RI WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS ZRXOG UDQN ORZ LQ WKH OLIHVSDFH PHDVXUH I VFRUH DQG UROH FRXQW PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW 5HVXWV RI D /LIH 6DW LVIDFWLRQ QGH[ ,W LV DW OHDVW FRQFHLYDEOH WKDW DJHG SHRSOH ZKR XQGHUWDNH D QHZ PDUULDJH PLJKW KDYH PRUH YLJRU DQG YLWDOLW\ DQG WKHUHIRUH EH KDSSLHU JHQHUDOO\ WKDQ RWKHU ROG SHUVRQV 7R EH VXUH D QHZ PDUULDJH ODWH LQ OLIH PD\ DFW WR DPNH D SHUVRQ KDSS\ RU LW FRXOG EH DV ZHOO WKDW YLJRURXV

PAGE 96

]HVWIXO VHQLRU FLWL]HQV WHQG WR FRQWUDFW QHZ PDUULDJHV DQG WKHQ EHFRPH HYHQ PRUH KDSS\ DV D UHVXOW RI LW $W DQ\ UDWH WKH OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ HQWLW\ PXVW EH PHDVXUHG DJDLQVW ERWK JURXSV LI IRU QR RWKHU UHDVRQ WKDQ WR DVFHUWDLQ LI LW FDQ EH H[FOXGHG DV SRVVLEOH FDXVH RI ELDV 7R GHWHUn PLQH LI WKHUH ZDV D YDULDQFH LQ VDWLVIDFWLRQ ZLWK OLIH ERWK JURXSV ZHUH JLYHQ WKH /LIH 6DWLVIDFWLRQ ,QGH[ $ /6,$f DV GHYHORSHG E\ 1HXJDUWHQ HW DOVFH $SSHQGL[ $f WKH /6, $ LV GLYLGHG LQWR ILYH VXEVHFWLRQV 7KH ILUVW VXEVHFWLRQ FRQWDLQLQJ VL[ LWHPV DWWHPSWV WR PHDVXUH PRRG WRQH 7KH VHFRQG VXEn VHFWLRQ DOVR FRQWDLQLQJ VL[ LWHPV DWWHPSWV WR PHDVXUH ]HVW IRU OLYLQJ 7KH WKLUG VXEVHFWLRQ FRQVLVWLQJ RI WKUHH LWHPV DWWHPSWV WR PHDVXUH FRQJUXHQFH EHWZHHQ GHVLUHG DQG DFKLHYHG JRDOV 7KH IRXUWK VX N a X FWLRQ DOVR FRQVLVWLQJ RI WKUHH LWHPV DWWHPSWV WR PHDVXUH SHUVRQDO IRUWLWXGH 7KH ODVW VXEVHFWLRQ RI RQO\ WZR LWHPV DWWHPSWV WR PHDVXUH WKH VXEMHFWnV VHOIFRQFHSW 7KH WRWDO RI DOO WKHVH VXEVFDOHV LV VXSSRVHG WR UHIOHFW D UHVSRQGHQWnV GHJUHH RI OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ (DFK TXHVWLRQ RQ WKH VFKHGXOH ZDV VFRUHG RQH SRLQW 6HH VFRULQJ NH\ LQ WKH $SSHQGL[f 7KLV PDGH WKH SRVVLEOH UDQJH IRU WKH PRRG WRQH VXEWRWDO IURP ]HUR WR VL[ SRLQWV WKH ]HVW IRU OLIH VXEWRWDO IURP ]HUR WR VL[ WKH FRQJUXHQFH VXEWRWDO IURP ]HUR WR WKUHH WKH IRUWLWXGH VXEWRWDO IURP ]HUR WR WKUHH DQG WKH VHOIn FRQFHSW VXEWRWDO IURP ]HUR WR WZR SRLQWV 7KLV PDNHV WKH PD[LPXP SRVVLEOH UDQJH IRU WKH WRWDO /6, $ IURP ]HUR WR WZHQW\ SRLQWV 1RQH RI WKH FKL VTXDUHV FRPSXWHG RQ DQ\ RI WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV RI WKH ILYH VXEVHFWLRQV RU WKH WRWDO /6,$ VFRUH ZDV VLJQLILFDQW DW WKH ORZHVW

PAGE 97

DFFHSWDEOH OHYHO RI FRQILGHQFH +RZHYHU WKHUH ZHUH YLVLEOH YDUL mOLRQV L Q WKH GDWD LQ VRPH RI WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV 7KH PRRG WRQH UHVXOWV VKRZHG WKDW S SHUFHQW RI WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS IHOO LQWR WKH WZR ORZHU VFRUHG FROXPQV LQ FRQWUDVW WR RQO\ A SHUFHQW RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS ZKLOH SHUFHQW RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS VFRUHG LQ WKH WZR KLJKHU FROXPQV DQG RQO\ SHUFHQW RI WKH FRPSDU L VRQ JURXS UHDFKHG WKRVH FROXPQV 7DE H "f f 7DEOH 0RRG 7RQH 6XEWRWDO RI WKH /6, $ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 0RRG ORQH 6XEWRWDO *URXS A ‘ 7RWDOV ([SHU cUUHUWD 2 R R + 1 f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f f f3DUHQWKHWLFDO ILJXUHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWD SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFW \ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 7KH ]HVW IRU OLIH VXEWRWDO DOVR GHPRQVWUDWHG DQ REVHUYDEOH GLIn IHUHQFH VLQFH PRUH WKDQ WZLFH DV PDQ\ FRPSDULVRQ DV H[SHULPHQWDO VXEMHFWV IHOO LQ WKH WZR ORZHUr VFRUHG FRO XUQQVnZmK L OH A SHUFHQW RI WKH H[SHULPHQn WDO VXEMHFWV PDGH WKH KLJKHVW VFRUH FROXPQ LQ FRQWUDVW WR RQO\ SHUFHQW RI WKH FRPSDULVRQ VXEMHFWV EHLQJ SRVLWLRQHG WKHUH 7DEOH MRf

PAGE 98

7DEOH O? =HVW IRU /LIH 6XEWRWDO RI WKH /6, $ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr =HVW IRU /LIH 6XEWRWDO *URXS U RWD f ([SHULPHQWDO 1 f f f f f f f f f &RPSD ULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f f r3DUHQWKHWLFD ILJXUHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV 7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 7KH YDULDQFHV LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV RQ WKH FRQJUXHQFH ZHUH QRW ODUJH EXW WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS GLG KDYH PRUH WKDQ WZLFH DV PDQ\ UHVSRQGHQWV LQ WKH ORZHVW VFRUHG FROXPQ WKDQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS DQG KDG IHZHU UHn VSRQGHQWV SODFHG LQ WKH KLJKHVW VFRUHG FROXPQ WKDQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS 7DE H $ f 7DEOH $ &RQJ UXHQFH 6XEWRWDO RI WKH /6$ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG D &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr U R X Q &R QRUXHQFH 6XEWRWDO 7RWDO YL 9n 8 f ([SHU LQHQWD+ f 1 f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1 Rf f f f f f 3DUHQWKHWLFDO ILJXUHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV +RWD SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ

PAGE 99

7KH IRUWLWXGH VXEWRWDO GLVSOD\HG D UHYHUVDO LQ WKH WUHQG LQ WKDW KDOI DJDLQ DV PDQ\ H[SHULPHQWDO DV FRPSDULVRQ VXEMHFWV IHOO LQ WKH ORZHVW VFRUHG FROXPQ ZKLOH PRUH WKDQ GRXEOH WKH DPRXQW RI FRPSDULVRQ VXEMHFWV WKDQ H[SHULPHQWDO VXEMHFWV IHOO LQ WKH KLJKHVW VFRUHG FROXPQ 7DEOH KLf 7DEOH KL )RUWLWXGH 6XEWRWD RI WKH /,$ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr *URXS )RUWLWXGH 6XEWRWD 7RWD ([SHU L PHQWD I K 1 f rf f f f &RPSDULVRQ A 1 f f f 62f f f nn3DUHQWKHWLFDO ILJXUHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV U7RWDO SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ EH L QJ KHQFH 7KH VHOIFRQFHSW UHVXOWHG LQ PRUH FRPSDULVRQ WKDQ H[SHULPHQWDO b SODFHG LQ WKH KLJKHVW VFRUHG FROXPQ DQG DOVR LQ WKH ORZHVW DV ZHOO WKH ZHLJKW RI RQH EDODQFHV WKH ZHLJKW RI WKH RWKHU 7DEOH Afr 7DEOH A 6HOI&RQFHSW 6XEWRWDO RI WKH /6$ IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr URX' f 6H I &RQFHSW 6XEWRW D 7RWDO ([SHU L PHQWD 1 f f f f f &f &RPSDULVRQ r 1 f f Nf f f 3DUHQWKHWLFDO ILJXUHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV I7RWD SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFW \ GXH WR URXQGLQJ

PAGE 100

6XUSULVLQJO\ ZKHQ DOO RI WKH VXEVHFWLRQV ZHUH VXPPHG LQWR WKH WRWDO /6, $ WKHUH ZDV QR YLVLEO\ PDUNHG GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV 7DEOH OLNf 7DEOH 7RWDO /6, $ 6FRUH IRU WKH ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &RPSDULVRQ *URXSV 3HUFHQWDJHVfr 7RWDO /6$ 6FRUH *UFXR f 7RWD ([SHUcPHQWD ,, f f f f f f f f &RPSDULVRQ 1 f f f f f f f f 3DUHQWKHWLFD ILJXUHV GHQRWH FXPXODWLYH SHUFHQWDJHV A7RWD SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 6LQFH WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV RQ WKH WRWDO /6,$ SURGXFHG QR VWDWLVWLFDO RU YLVXDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW UH DWLRQVKLS LW FDQ EH GLVPLVVHG DV D YDULDEOH WKDW FRXOG SURGXFH D YDULDQFH EHWZHHQ DJHG QHZO\ZHGV DQG RWKHU DJHG SHRSOH LQ JHQHUDO +RZHYHU LW VKRXOG QRW EH GLVFRXQWHG WKDW DJHG QHZO\n ZHGV VHHP WR KDYH D VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU PRRG WRQH ]HVW IRU OLIH DQG PRUH FRQJUXHQFH EHWZHHQ GHVLUHG DQG DFKLHYHG JRDOV WKDQ RWKHU DJHG SHUVRQV LQ JHQHUDO EXW VHHP WR KDYH D OHVVHU GHJUHH RI IRUWLWXGH $QG LW LV ZLWKLQ WKH UHDOP RI SRVVLELOLW\ KDW WKLV ODFN RI IRUWLWXGH FDXVHG WKHP WR DFWLYHO\ VHHN RXW D OLIH SDUWQHU

PAGE 101

)RU SXUSRVHA RI DQDO\VLV DQG WR GHWHUPLQH LI D GLIIHUHQFH LQ OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ FRXOGf SRVVLEO\ KDYH DIIHFWHG WKH VXEK\SRWKHVHV DQG ZRUNLQJ K\SRWKHVHV WKH VHYHQ LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV RI WKRVH SURSRVLWLRQV LH PDULWDO VWDWXV QFUPEHU RI FKLOGUHQ QXPEHU RI VLEOLQJV DJH RI VSRXVH UHVLGHQFH VH[ DQG UDFHf ZHUH HDFK LQ WXUQ KHOG FRQVWDQW DQG UDQ DJDLQVW HDFK RI WIUH /6$ VXEWRWDOV DQG WRWDO (OHYHQ VLJQLILFDQW UHODn WLRQVKLSV UHVXOWHG $ QXPEHUHG WRSLFDO RYHUYLHZ RI WKHVH UHVXOWV IROORZV f 7KH QXYLEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ YDULDEOH SURGXFHG D VLJQLILFDQW UHODWLRQVKLS LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS RQ WKH PRRG WRQH VXEWRWDO f 7KH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV YDULDEOH SURGXFHG D VLJQLILFDQW UHODWLRQVKLS LQ WIUH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS RQ WKH WRWDO /6,$ VFRUH QG Kf 7KH DJH RI VSRXVH YDULDEOH SURGXFHG D VLJQLILFDQW GLIn IHUHQFH RQ WKH PRRG WRQH VXEWRWDO IRU ERWK WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DQG FRPSDULVRQ JURXSV f 7KH VH[ YDULDEOH SURGXFHG D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH FRPn SDULVRQ JURXS RQ GLH VHOIFRQFHSW VXEWRWDO 6 DQG f 7KH UDFH YDULDEOH SURGXFHG VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS RQ WKH PRRG WRQH VXEWRWDO ]HVW IRU OLIH VXEWRWDO IRUWLWXGH VXEWRWDO DQG WKH WRWDO /6,$ VFRUH LQ ERWK JURXSV FRPELQHG FUY WKH PRRG WRQH VXEWRWDO DQG WKH IRUWLWXGH VXEWRWDO LW VHHPV IURP WKH DERYH WKDW WKH PRVW GLVFULPLQDWLQJ PHDVXUH RI OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ ZDV PRRG WRQH DQG WKH GHPRJUDSKLF YDULDEOH PRVW VLJQLILn FDQW LQ DIIHFWLQJ OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ ZDV UDFH $V UHJDUGV UDFH LW DSSHDUV WKDW KHJURHV PDQLIHVW WR D QRWLFHDEOH GHJUHH D VRPHZKDW OHVVHU DPRXQW RI OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ 7KH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS FRQWDLQHG EODFN VXEMHFWV RU A SHUFHQW ZKHUHDV WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS KDG EODF7N UHVSRQGHQWV RU SHUFHQW

PAGE 102

6LQFH YROLWHV PDQLIHVWHG D VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU GHJUHH RI OLIH VDWLVIDFn WLRQ DQG ZKLWHV PDGH XS D VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU SHUFHQWDJH RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS WKHQ WKLV DOVR WHQGV WR UHGXFH WKH FUHGLELOLW\ RI WKH VPDOO YDULDn WLRQ LQ GLVHQJDJHPHQW QRWHG EHWZHHQ WKH WZR JURXSV ,W LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR QRWH WKDW WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LQ WKH ZRUNLQJ K\SRWKHVLV DERXW UXUDOXUEDQ UHVLGHQFH DQG WKH LQLWLDO VXEK\SRWKH VLV EHLQJ PDUULHGf SURGXFHG QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV RQ DQ\ RI WKH OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ VFDOHV )URP WKLV LW IROORZV WKDW PDULWDO VWDWXV RU UHVLGHQFH GRHV QRW VHHP WR PDNH DQ\ GLIIHUHQFH LQ DQ DJHG LQGLYLGXDOnV GHJUHH RI VDWLVIDFWLRQ ZLWK OLIH 0DQLIROG SUREOHPV DURVH LQ WKH ILHOG ZLWK WKH DGPLQLVWHULQJ RI WKH /6,$ ZKLFK VHULRXVO\ TXHVWLRQHG WKH LQVWUXPHQWnV YDOLGLW\ DQG WKHUHIRUH VKRXOG DFW WR GLPLQLVK WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI DQ\ RI WKH DERYH UHODWLRQVKLSV IRXQG ZLWK WKH WRWDO /6,$ DQG DOO RI LWV VXEVHFWLRQV $Q DQDO\VLV RI WKH VFDOH DORQJ ZLWK VRPH RI WKH SUREOHPV HQFRXQWHUHG ZLWK LW LQ WKLV VWXG\ DQG RWKHUV DV ZHOO DV D VXJJHVWHG UHYLVLRQ DUH SODFHG LQ D VSHFLDO PHWKRGRORJLFDO QRWH ORFDWHG LQ $SSHQGL[ % 7DEXODWLRQV RI 5HVSRQVHV WR 0DUULDTH ,WHPV U nb‘ f ‘ Q ‘ P , A a a (YHQ WKRXJK DQQXDO ILJXUHV VKRZ WKDW WKH QDWLRQDO LQFUHDVH LQ DJHG PDUULDJHV KDV FHDVHG WKH OHYHOLQJ RII RFFXUUHG DW D UHODWLYHO\ KLJK SODWHDX $Q HVWLPDWHG nSHRSOH RYHU \HDUV RI DJH PDUU\ HDFK \HDU $JLQJ Rf 7KHUH LV QRW DQ HYHQ VSOLW DPRQJ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV LQ WKLV JURXS KRZHYHU WKHUH DUH DERXW WZLFH DV PDQ\ JURRPV RYHU HDFK \HDU DV WKHUH DUH EULGHV 7KLV PHDQV RI FRXUVH WKDW QRW DOO WKH SHRSOH

PAGE 103

RYHU ZKR PDUU\ XQLWH ZLWK PDWHV ZKR DUH DOVR RYHU ,Q IDFW SHUFHQW RI WKH RYHURaEU L GHV PDUU\ PHQ ZKR KDYH QRW \HW UHDFKHG \HDUV RI DJH DQG SHUFHQW RI WKH RYHUaJURRPV WDNH ZRPHQ DV WKH U VSRXVHV ZKR DUH XQGHU \HDUV RI DFH 9LWDO 6WDWLVWLFV RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 9RO WLO 0DUULDJH DQG 'LYRUFH f %HFDXVH WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI DJHG PDUULDJHV FRXOG KDYH FHUWDLQ LPSDFW XSRQ WKH WKHRU\ LQ WKH PDUULDJH DQG IDPLO\ ILHOG WKH ODVW VHYHQ LWHPV RQ WKH LQWHUYLHZ VFKHGXOH VHH $SSHQGL[ $f ZHUH RSHQHQGHG PDUULDJH SUREHV 7KHVH TXHULHV ZHUH GLUHFWHG RQO\ WR WKRVH ZLOOLQJ WR UHVSRQG WR WKHP 7KH LWHPV ZHUH FRQVWUXFWHG PDLQO\ WR EH SXW WR WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS EXW RQH FRXSOH ERWK RI ZKRP ZHUH RYHU f LQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS ZHUH DOVR QHZO\ZHGV 7KHVH WZR VXEMHFWV DJUHHG WR UHSO\ WR WKH TXHVWLRQV DQG WKHLU UHVSRQVHV DUH WDEXODWHG ZLWK WKH RWKHUV 7KLUW\WZR H[SHULPHQWDO VXEMHFWV DOVR DJUHHG WR FRRSHUDWH LQ WKH ODVW SDUW RI WKH LQWHUYLHZ 7KH ILUVW PDUULDJH TXHVWLRQ DVNHG f'LG DQ\ RI \RXU FKLOGUHQ REMHFW WR \RXU PDUULDJH" 1RW D VLQJOH RQH RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV DQVZHUHG WKLV LQ WKH DIILUPDWLYH VXEMHFWV DQVZHUHG LW QHJDWLYHO\ DQG VHYHQ VXEMHFWV Rbf KDG QR FKLOGUHQ DQG WKHUHIRUH WKH TXHVWLRQ ZDV QRW DSSOLn FDEOH WR WKHP 7KH VHFRQG PDUULDJH TXHVWLRQ DVNHG 'LG DQ\RQH REMHFW WR \RXU PDUULDJH" 2I WKH A FRRSHUDWLQJ UHVSRQGHQWV RU bf DQVZHUHG LQ WKH QHJDWLYH DQG RQO\ RQH VXEMHFW bf DQVZHUHG DIILUPDWLYHO\ 7KH WKLUG PDUULDJH SUREH LQTXLUHG DV WR KRZ ORQJ WKH FRXSOH KDG NQRZQ HDFK RWKHU EHIRUH WKH PDUULDJH WRRN SODFH 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI

PAGE 104

UHVSRQVHV RQ WKLV LWHP LQGLFDWHV WKDW PDQ\ RI WKH VXEMHFWV GLG QRW NQRZ HDFK RWKHU IRU YHU\ ORQJ EHIRUH WKH\ ZHUH PDUULHG 7DEOH Af ,Q IDFW PRVW RI WKH VXEMHFWV NQHZ HDFK HWKHU RQO\ WZR \HDUV RU OHVV EHIRUH WKH\ ZHUH ZHG 7DEOH 7KH /HQJWK RI 7LPH WKH &RRSHUDWLQJ 1HZO\ZHGV .QHZ (DFK %HIRUH 7KH\ 0DUULHG 1XPEHU DQG 3HUFHQWDJHf /HQJWK 1XPEHU RI &XPXODW LYH RI 7LPH 6XEM HFWV 3HUFHQW 3HUFHQWDJH /HVV WKDQ D \HDU f 0RUH WKDQ RQH \HDU EXW OHVV WKDQ WZR \HDUV f 7ZR \HDUV DW OHDVW f 7KUHH \HDUV DW OHDVW f )RXU WR VL[ \HDUV f 6HYHQ WR ILIWHHQ \HDUV f 6L[WHHQ WR WZHQW\QLQH \HD UV f 7KLUW\ \HDUV RU PRUH f 7RWD L f f 7ROD SHUFHQWDJHV GR QRW HTXDO H[DFWO\ GXH WR URXQGLQJ 0F.DLQ LQ KLV VDPSOH HDFK RWKHU \HDUV RU PRUH fMHFWV PDUULHG WR WKH VSRXVHV IRXQG WKDW SHUFHQW RI KLV FRXSOHV NQHZ DQG WKDW LW ZDV QRW XQFRPPRQ WR ILQG VXE RI GHFHDVHG VLEOLQJV 0RUHRYHU KH DGGHG

PAGE 105

WKDW VRQLF RI KLV VXEMHFWV KDG HYHQ DGYHUWLVHG IRU WKHLU PDWHV WKURXJK ORQHO\ KHDUWV FOXEV 6trf 1RQH RI WKH VXEMHFWV LQ WKLV VWXG\ DWWUDFWHG W WLH U PDWHV WKURXJK DQ\ VRUW RI FRUUHVSRQGHQFH FOXE DQG QRQH ZHUH PDUULHG WR WKH IRUPHU PDWHV RI GHFHDVHG VLEOLQJV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH GDWD LQ 7DEOH A VKH WKDW SHU FHQW RI WKH VXEMHFWV NQHZ WKHLU VSRXVHV IRU OHVV WKDQ WKLUW\ \HDUV 7KH UHDVRQ IRU WKH ODWWHU GLVFUHSDQF\ PD\ EH GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW )ORULGD DWWUDFWV D JUHDW GHDO RI LWV UHVLGHQWV DIWHU WKH\nYH DOUHDG\ DWWDLQHG WKH DJH RI HOVHZKHUH 7KLV PHDQV WKDW QRW PDQ\ RI WKH RWKHU HOGHUO\ SHRSOH D VHQLRU FLWL]HQ PHHWV LQ )ORULGD ZLOO EH OLIHORQJ DFTXDLQWDQFHV 7KH IRXUWK PDUULDJH TXHU\ DVNHG WKH FRXSOH LI WKH\ ZHUH RI WKH VDQLH UHOLJLRQV IDLWK $OO 3URWHVWDQW VHFWV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG WKH VDPH UHOLJLRQ IRU WKLV TXHU\ 7KHUH ZHUH VRPH UHVSRQVHV LQ WHUPV RI GLIIHUHQW GHQRPLQDn WLRQV ZKLFK ZLOO UHFHLYH DWWHQWLRQ VKRUWO\ ZKHQ WKLV VHFWLRQ LV GLVFXVVHG $OVR LI WKH FRXSOH ZHUH DUHOLJLRXV WKH\ ZHUH ERWK FRQVLGHUHG WKH VDPH UHOLJLRQ :LWK WKLV LQ PLQG WKHQ UHVSRQGHQWV bf ZHUH RI WKH VDPH UHOLJLRXV IDLWK DQG VL[ VXEMHFWV rbf ZHUH RI GLIIHUHQW IDLWKV 7KLV PHDQV WKDW WKH YDVW PDMRULW\ RI VXEMHFWV HOHFWHG WR HQWHU XQLRQV WKDW ZRXOG ER KRQRJHQHRXV DV UHJDUGV UHOLJLRQ 7KH ILIWK SUREH DVFHUWDLQHG ZKHWKHU r QRW WKH ZLIH ZDV JDLQIXOO\ HPSOR\HG RXWVLGH WKH KRPH 7KH QXPEHU RI FRRSHUDWLQJ VXEMHFWV WKDW HLWKHU ZHUH ZRUNLQJ ZLYHV RU KDG ZRUNLQJ ZLYHV ZDV RU Ar SHUFHQW VXEMHFWV RU SHUFHQW ZHUH HLWKHU QRQZRUNLQJ ZLYHV RU KXVEDQGV ZLWK QRQZRUNLQJ ZLYHV

PAGE 106

7KH VL[WK PDUULDJH TXHVWLRQ DVNHG WKH QHZO\ZHGV LI WKH\ ZRXOG KDYH VRPH DGYLFH RU FRXQVHO WR JLYH RWKHU DJHG SHRSOH ZKR PLJKW EH FRQWHPSODWLQJ D QHZ PDUULDJH ODWH LQ OLIH 7ZHQW\ VXEMHFWV bf VWDWHG WKDW WKH\ ZRXOG JLYH QR DGYLFH DQG VXEMHFWV bf VDLG WKH\ ZRXOG JLYH VRPH DGYLFH 7KH ILQDO PDUULDJH LWHP DVNHG WKH FRXSOH WR JLYH WKHLU PDMRU UHDVRQ IRU FRQWUDFWLQJ WKLV PDUULDJH 7ZHQW\ILYH VXEMHFWV RU SHUFHQW JDYH ORQHOLQHVV DQGRU FRPSDQLRQVKLS DV WKHLU PDMRU UHDVRQ IRU PDUU\LQJ ZKLOH QLQH VXEMHFWV bf JDYH VRPH RWKHU UHDVRQ 7KLV FRUUHVSRQGV YHU\ ZHOO ZLWK 0F.DLQnV ILQGLQJV +H GHWHUPLQHG WKDW IURP WZRWKLUGV WR WKUHH TXDUWHUV RI KLV VXEMHFWV FLWHG ORQHOLQHVV RU FRPSDQVLRQVKLS DV WKH PDMRU UHDVRQ IRU WKHLU PDUULDJH 0DWXUH RI 5HVSRQVHV WR WKH 0DUULDJH 4XHULHV b 7KH ILUVW TXHVWLRQ DERXW ZKHWKHU DQ\ RI WKHLU FKLOGUHQ REMHFWHG WR WKH PDUULDJH ZDV ZLWKRXW H[FHSWLRQ DQVZHUHG LQ WKH QHJDWLYH ,Q DGGLn WLRQ WKH UHSOLHV ZHUH DOZD\V YHU\ HQWKXVLDVWLF DQG FRXSOHV ZLWK VXFK VWDWHPHQWV DV 7KH\ DUH DOO ZHOO SOHDVHG RU 7KH\ FRXOGQnW EH KDSSLHU &DVH QXPEHU DQ DJHG IHPDOH QHZO\ZHG PDGH DQ XQVROLFLWHG EXW SDUWLFXn ODUO\ LQFLVLYH UHPDUN WKLQN WKH \RXQJHU FKLOGUHQ RI PLGGOHDJHG SDUHQWV UHVHQW WKHLU SDUHQWV UHPDUU\LQJ EXW GR QRW IHHO WKDW DQ\RQH L REMHFWV WR JUDQGSDUHQWV UHPDUU\LQJ 0\ RZQ H[SHULHQFH ZLWK RWKHU ROG SHRSOH UHPDUU\LQJ LV WKDW HYHU\RQH HVSHFLDOO\ WKHLU RZQ FKLOGUHQ ZDV FOHDUO\ KDSS\ IRU WKHP 7KHUH ZDV RQO\ RQH H[FHSWLRQ WR WKLV YLUWXDOO\ XQLYHUVDO DFFODLP RI JRRG ZLOO DQG LW ZDV VOLJKW ,Q DQVZHU WR WKH VHFRQG TXHVWLRQ DERXW

PAGE 107

ZKHWKHU DQ\RQH REMHFWHG WKHUH ZDV EXW D VLQJOH UHSO\ DJDLQVW WKH PDUULDJH 7KLV ZDV &DVH 0R DQG KLV H[DFW UHPDUN ZDV 6RPH RI P\ DFTXDLQWDQFHV L SUHGLFWHG LW ZRXOGQnW ODVW EHFDXVH P\ ZLIH LV \HDUV \RXQJHU WKDQ 7KH WKLUG TXHVWLRQ DVNHG WKH FRXSOH LI WKH\ ZHUH RI WKH VDPH UHOLJLRXV IDLWK 7KHUH ZHUH VHYHUDO FDVHV ZKHQ WKH DQVZHU ZRXOG EH LQ WKH QHJDWLYH EXW WKH\ ERWK SURYHG WR EH 3URWHVWDQW 6R ZKHQHYHU WKHUH FDPH D QHJDWLYH UHSO\ WR WKH TXHVWLRQ WKH LQWHUYLHZHU DOZD\V SUREHG :K\ QRW" ,Q WKH ILYH FDVHV ZKHUH WKH GLVWLQFWLRQ ZDV ZLWKLQ GLIIHUHQW 3URWHVWDQW GHQRPLQDWLRQV WKH ZLIH GLG WKH WDONLQJ LQ WKH IRXU IROORZLQJ FDVHV &DVH 1R +HnV 3UHVE\WHULDQ DQG ,nP (SLVFRSDOLDQ &DVH 1R +HnV D 0HWKRGLVW DQG ,nP D %DSWLVW &DVH 0R 0R DQG WKDW FDXVHV WURXEOH LQ WKH KRXVH 7KH LQWHUYLHZHU SUREHGf :K\ LV WKDW" 7KH UHSO\ ZDVf %HFDXVH KHnV D %DSWLVW DQG ,nP &KXUFK RI &KULVW &DVH 1R ,4R +HnV D 0DVRQ DJDLQVW RUJDQL]HG FKXUFKHV DQG EHORQJ WR WKH &KULVWLDQ &KXUFK 7KH RQO\ WLPH LW ZDV WKH KXVEDQG UHVSRQGLQJ WR D UHOLJLRVLW\ GLIIHUHQFH ZDV &DVH 1R ,nP D &KULVWLDQ EXW ,nP QRW VXUH DERXW KHU :KHQ DVNHG LI WKH\ KDG DQ\ DGYLFH IRU RWKHU DJHG SHRSOH ZKR PLJKW EH FRQWHPSODWLQJ D PDUULDJH ODWH LQ OLIH WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH FRRSHUDWLQJ VXEMHFWV VWDWHG WKH\ ZRXOG PLQG WKHLU RZQ EXVLQHVV DQG QRW JLYH RXW DQ\ DGYLFH LQ WKLV PDWWHU 6RPH LQWHUHVWLQJ FRPPHQWV ZHUH PDGH E\ &DVH 1R K D PDOHf ,W ZRXOG EH WKH LQGLYLGXDOnV RZQ EXVLQHVV VHQLRU FLWL]HQV DUH KDUG WR WDON LQWR RU RXW RI WKLQJV $QG &DVH 1R DQRWKHU PDOHf f,ZRXOG WHOO KLP WR JHW PDUULHG HYHQ WKRXJK DQ XQPDUULHG HOGHUO\ PDQ FDQ

PAGE 108

KDYH D JRRG WLPH VLQJOH &DVHV 0R 6 DQG D FRXS HILUVW VKH WKHQ KHf DOVR KDG VRPHWKLQJ WR VD\ ,I \RX KDYH EHHQ PDUULHG EHIRUH GRQnW PHDVXUH \RXU VHFRQG KXVEDQG E\ \RXU ILUVW EXW GR PDNH VXUH KH LV D &KULVWLDQ W $ B f PR QHU KXVEDQGnV UHVSRQVH ZRXOG TXRWH WKH 6FULSWXUH WF WKHPH \H QRW XQHTXDOO\ \RNHGn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f /RYH ZDV D ZLGRZ IRU WKLUW\ \HDUV DQG KH ZDV WKH RQO\ RQH nG KDYH DQ\WKLQJ WR GR ZLWK WKH KXVEDQGf ZDV LQ ORYH DQG ORQHO\ WRR &DVH 0R D PDOHf &RPSDQVLRQVKLS DQG D OLWWOH \ RI FRXUVH LW GRQfW WDNH DV PXFK VH[ ZKHQ \RXnUH SDVW &DVH 0R DQRWKHU PDOHf MXVW JRW WLUHG RI EHLQJ DORQH VR VWDUWHG ORRNLQJ IRU D JRRG ZRPDQ ZKR LLNHG DQG ZRXOG EH QLFH WR PH 6KH ZDQWHG FRPSDQ\ WRR VLQFH VKH KDG EHHQ D ZLGRZ IRU WHQ \HDUV XL f f r LL H YH RHHQ PDUULHG URXU \HDUV QRZ DQG HYHU\WKLQJ LV MXVW ZRQGHUIXO &DVH 0R D PDOHf ,

PAGE 109

ZDQWHG WR EH OHJDOO\ PDUULHG UDWKHU WKDQ MXVW OLYH ZLWK KHU EHFDXVH RI FKXUFK WHDFKLQJV DV ZULWWHQ LQ WKH 6FULSWXUH WKH 6HYHQWK &KDSWHU RI 5RPDQVp 7KH UHVHDUFKHU SUREHGf O$VLGH IURP WKDW DQ\ RWKHU UHDVRQ"rn 7KH VXEMHFWnV UHVSRQVHf ,nP QRW D ZRUOGO\ PDQ DQG GRQnW OLNH WR JR IURP RQH ZRPDQ WR DQRWKHU DOVR QHHGHG VRPHRQH WR FRRO DQG FOHDQ &DVH 1R K DQRWKHU PDOHf /RQHOLQHVV DOVR KDYLQJ D VSRXVH \RX FDQ HQWHUWDLQ DQG JR RXW WRJHWKHU WR D ORW RI SODFHV &DVH 1R PDOHf 7ZR FDQ OLYH WRJHWKHU FKHDSHU WKDQ WZR FDQ OLYH DSDUW &DVH 1R PDOHf GLGQnW GR LW IRU WKH VDPH UHDVRQ DV PRVW WKDW LV GLG QRW QHHG D FRPSDQLRQ ZDV GRLQJ ILQH E\ P\VHOI EXW PHW WKLV QLFH JLUO IURP D UHVSHFWDEOH IDPLO\ D JLUO NQHZ DQG HYHU\RQH HOVH NQRZV FDQ EH WUXVWHG VR GHFLGHG WR UHPDUU\ EXW ,nP ERVV LQ WKH KRPH ZDQW \RX WR NQRZ QR ZRPDQ QR PDWWHU KRZ JRRG D RQH FDQ JLYH PH RUGHUV 6LJQLILFDQFH RI 7KLV 6WXG\ RQ 'LVHQJDJHPHQW 7KHRU\ 2QH RI WKH UDDMRU UHDVRQV IRU UHVHDUFK LV WR WHVW WKHRU\ ZLWK DQ DLP WRZDUG WKH FODULILFDWLRQ YHULILFDWLRQ UHGHILQLWLRQ RU WKH UHGLn UHFW L QJ RI 7 W 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKLV VWXG\ VXJJHVW WKUHH SRVVLELOLWLHV 2QH WKHUH UHDOO\ LV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ GLVHQJDJHPHQW EHWZHHQ QHZO\ZHG DJHGV DQG DJHGV LQ JHQHUDO WZR WKH LQVWUXPHQW XVHG GRHV QRW DGHTXDWHO\ PHDVXUH GLVHQJDJHPHQW RU WKUHH GLVHQJDJHPHQW GRHV QRW H[LVW DV D GHILQLWLYH HQWLW\

PAGE 110

7KH FRQFHSW RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW VHHPV WKHRUHWLFDOO\ VRXQG VR LW LV PRVW GLIILFXOW WR GLVFODLP WKH SKHQRPHQRQnV H[LVWHQFH ,W YDV REYLRXV WR WKH UHVHDUFKHU WKDW VRPH RI WKH VXEMHFWV KDG D IHHOLQJ RI GLVHQJDJHn PHQW HYHQ WKRXJK WKH\ ZHUH XQDZDUH RI WKH VFLHQWLILF GHVFULSWLRQ $ IHZ UHPDUNV E\ VRPH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VXEMHFWV LQVHUWHG DW WKLV SRLQW ZLOO EH DSSURSULDWH WR LOOXVWUDWH WKLV &DVH 0R $ SHUVRQ VKRXOG EH JUDQWHG WZR OLYHV RQH WR SUDFWLFH ZLWK DQG RQH WR OLYH &DVH 0R $ PDQ OLYHV RQFH DV D PDQ DQG WZLFH DV D FKLOG ,nP QRZ LQ P\ VHFRQG FKLOGKRRG $QG DQ f\HDUROG ZLGRZ DFWXDOO\ VDLG WKLV &DVH 0R N2 nP MXVW ZDLWLQJ IRU GHDWK 3HUKDSV WKH PRVW LQFLVLYH FRPPHQW E\ D ZKLWH PDOH FRPSDULVRQ JURXS VXEMHFW W\SLILHV ERWK WKH QRQQRUPDWLYH LQGLYLGXDOL]HG OLIH VW\OH DQG DOVR ZKDW PD\ YHU\ ZHOO EH WKH VDOLHQW UHDVRQ IRU WKH XQSRSXODULW\ RI QXUVLQJ KRPHV DPRQJ HOGHUO\ FLWL]HQV &DVH 1R r 7KH UHDVRQ ZRXOGQnW OLYH LQ DQ ROG IRONnV KRPH LV QRW VR PXFK WKDW WKH\ DUH GHSUHVVLQJ SODFHV ZKLFK WKH\ DUH EXW EHFDXVH RI WKH $UP\OLNH UHJPHQWDWLRQDERXW DOO JHWWLQJ XS HDWLQJ DQG GRLQJ RWKHU VWXII DW WKH VDPH WLPH HYHU\GD\ LNH WR JHW XS ZKHQ IHHO OLNH LW DQG HDW ZKHQ IHHO OLNH LW 7KH DUJXPHQW RI VXEMHFW 1R DOVR VHHPV WR UHIXWH WKH DVVXPSn WLRQ WKDW D KLJK UDWH RI LQWHUDFWLRQ LV DQ RSWLPXP LGHDO IRU HYHU\RQH 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH IODW VWDWHPHQW RI VXEMHFW 1R A VHHPV WR GHEDWH WKH SROHPLFDO SDUDOOHO WKDW LW LV DV QDWXUDO WR ILJKW GLVHQJDJHPHQW DV LW LV WR ILJKW GHDWK ,I WKH TXHVWLRQZHUH SXW EOXQWO\ WR WKLV UHVHDUFKHU

PAGE 111

f'R \RX WKLQN WKDW WKHUH LV VXFK D WKLQJ DV GLVHQJDJHPHQW"Q WKH DQVZHU ZRXOG EH LQ WKH DIILUPDWLYH DOWKRXJK LW PD\ QRW DV \HW KDYH EHHQ SUHn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
PAGE 112

,&2 7KLV FRQFHSWLRQ RI G L VHQJDUHPHQ W DOVR KHOSV WR H[SODLQ ZK\ LW ZDV VXFK D UDULW\ IRU WKH IULHQGV DQG UHODWLYHV RI WKH QHZO\ZHGV WR REMHFW WR WKH PDUULDJH SURYLGHG RI FRXUVH WKDW WKHVH VLJQLILFDQW RWKHUV VDZ WKH XQLRQ DV D WZLQ ZLWKGUDZDO WKDW LV HDFK RI WKH PDWHV EHLQJ WK RWKHUnV FRPSDQLRQ DV WKH\ GLVHQJDJH WRJHWKHU 7KH HOGHUO\ FRXSOH ZRXOG WKHQ EH YLHZHG DV DQ HOGHUO\ SDLU UDWKHU WKDQ D QHZ EULGH DQG JURRP )RU WKLV IUDPHZRUN WR ORJLFDOO\ KROG XS QR GLIIHUHQFH LQ GLVHQJDJHPHQW EHn WZHHQ QHZO\ZHG DJHG SHRSOH DQG RWKHU DJHG SHRSOH ZRXOG EH H[SHFWHG DQG WKLV ZDV LQ IDFW WKH RXWFRPH 7KLV H[SODQDWLRQ ZRXOG DOVR DFFRXQW IRU WKH SUHSRQGHUDQFH RI VXEn MHFWV OLVWLQJ FRPSDQORQVKLS DV WKHLU PDMRU UHDVRQ IRU PDUU\LQJ UDWKHU WKDQ UHDVRQV FHQWHULQJ DURXQG UHYHUWLQJ WR DQ HDUOLHU VWDJH LQ WKH OLIH H\H H 7KXVO\ WZR VRFLHWDO H[SHFWDWLRQV ZRXOG EH VDWLVILHG $ KLJK YDOXH LV SODFHG RQ PDUULDJH LW LV FHUWDLQO\ ORRNHG RQ E\ WKH PDMRULW\ DV D EHWWHU DOWHUQDWLYH WKDQ XQGHUJRLQJ OLIHn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

PAGE 113

YHU\ FRPPRQ GHPRJUDSKLF YDULDEOHV UHFHLYHG QR FRQILUPDWLRQ WR DQ\ GHJUHH LQ DQ\ RI WKH WHVWV DV EHLQJ UHODWHG WR GLVHQJDJHPHQW 7KH ILQGLQJV RQ UDFH DQG VH[ SUHFLVHO\ EHFDXVH WKH K\SRWKHVHV FRQWDLQLQJ WKHVH YDULDn EOHV ZHUH QRW HYHQ VOLJKWO\ VXVWDLQHG E\ WKH GDWD PD\ EH WKH PRVW GDPDJn LQJ WR WKH SUHVHQWO\ GHVFULEHG IUDPH RI UHIHUHQFH RQ GLVHQJDJHPHQW 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKLV VWXG\ DV UHJDUGV UDFH DQD VH[ VHHP WR FRQIOLFW ZLWK VRPH RI WKH EDVLF WHQHWV RI &XPPLQJ DQG +HQU\ f DV SRVWXODWHG LQ WKHLU ERRNOHQJWK VWDWHPHQW RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW ,Q WKHLU WKLUG SRVWXODWH WKH DXWKRUV VWLSXODWH WKDW EHFDXVH WKH UROHV RI PHQ DQG ZRPHQ DUH GLIIHUHQW WKH SURFHVV RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW ZLOO GLIIHU RQ WKH EDVLV RI VH[ 7KH ILQGLQJV RI WKLV VWXG\ DOVR GLVDJUHH ZLWK WKH VL[WK SRVWXODWH RI &XPPLQJ DQG +HQU\ DERXW WKH DEDQGRQPHQW RI OLIHnV FHQWUDO UROHVZRUN IRU PHQ PDUULDJH DQG IDPLO\ IRU ZRPHQZL UHVXOW LQ D UHGXFHG OLIHVSDFH XQOHVV QHZ DSSURSULDWH UROHV DUH DYDLODEOH 7KH IRXU FRUROODULHV RI WKH VL[WK SRVWXODWH DOVR VHHP WR EH FRQWUDGLFWHG &XPPLQJ DQG +HQU\ PDLQWDLQHG WKDW D UHWLUHG PDQnV SHHU JURXS VKULQNV ZKLOH D ZRGRZnV SHHU JURXS PD\ VZHOO WKXV WKH\ IDFHG GLIIHUHQW GLVHQJDJHPHQW SUREOHPV DQG WKDW VRPH RI WKH ZLGRZnV GLVHQJDJHPHQW SUREOHPV DUH VROYDEOH E\ UHPDUULDJH 3RVWXODWHV f$ DQG f% VWDWHG WKDW LI DQ LQGLYLGXDO EHFRPHV DZDUH RI WKH VKRUWQHVV RI WLPH UHPDLQLQJ WR KLP WKHQ UHDGLQHVV IRU GLVHQJDJHPHQW EHJLQV DQG WKDW VRFLHW\ GXH WR D GLIIHUHQWLDO GHDWK UDWH JLYHV HFKHORQV RI SHRSOH LWV SHUPLVVLRQ WR GLVHQJDJH ,W LV D IDFW WKDW WKH OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ LV JUHDWHU IRU ZKLWHV WKDQ EODFNV DQG JUHDWHU IRU IHPDOHV WKDQ PDOHV %XW QR GLIIHUHQFH ZDV QRWHG RQ WKH UDFH DQG VH[ YDULDEOHV LQ WKLV ZRUN ,W LV WUXH WKDW LQ WKH

PAGE 114

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c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

PAGE 115

1HLWKHU WKH GLVHQJDJHPHQW QRU WKH DFWLYLW\ WKHRU\ VKRXOG EH FRQn VLGHUHG DV WKH VROH PRGDO DGMXVWPHQW WR DJHGQHVV E\ WKRVH ZRUNLQJ LQ WKH ILHOG RI DJLQJ 5DWKHU WKH WZR SURFHVVHV VKRXOG EH VHHQ DV ELPRGDO 0RUH RYHU HLWKHU SURFHVV VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG DV HTXDOO\ VXFFHVVIXO DJLQJ WKH DYHQXH VHOHFWHG EHLQJ WKH RQH PRVW FRPSDWLEOH WR WKH LQGLYLGXDO DQG EDVHG PDLQO\ RQ KLV RZQ SHUVRQDO ZLVKHV ZLWK VRPH UHJDUG IRU WKH SURWHFWLRQ RI WKH ODUJHU VRFLHW\ :LWK WKLV LQ PLQG WKH GHFLVLRQ IRU WKH PRVW SDUW ZL EH WKH LQGLYLGXDOnV DQG JLYHQ LW LW FDQ EH SUHGLFWHG WKDW VRPH KDSSLO\ ZLOO WDNH DFWLYLW\ DQG VRPH RWKHUV ZLOO FKHHUIXOO\ DFFHSW GLVn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nV RZQ IUHH ZLOO ZKHQ WKHUH PD\ EH LQWHUYHQLQJ YDULDEOHV WKDW LQWHUIHUH ZLWK WKH H[HUFLVH RI IUHH ZLOO :H QHHG WR GHWHUPLQH KRZ PXFK LQYROYHPHQW RU

PAGE 116

GcVQYROYHPHQW PD\ EH WKH UHVXOW RI SK\VLFDO SV\FKRORJLFDO RU VRFLDO UHDVRQV UDWKHU WKDQ RQHnV RZQ IUHHGRP RI FKRLFH

PAGE 117

&+$37(5 ),9( 352326$W6 )25 )8785( 678',(6 2) $*(',(66 $1' $*(' 0$55,$*(6 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WR GHWHUPLQH LI QHZ PDUULDJHV DPRQJ WKH HOGHUO\ ZRXOG KDYH D GHWHULQJ HIIHFW RQ WKHLU GLVHQJDJHPHQW IURP VRFLHW\ 6HYHUDO RWKHU YDULDEOHV ZHUH DOVR VWXGLHG WR GHWHUPLQH LI WKH\ ZHUH UHODWHG WR GLVHQJDJHPHQW 7KRXJK QRQH RI WKH K\SRWKHVHV IRUPXODWHG IURP WKHVH YDULDEOHV UHFHLYHG VXSSRUW DW WKH VWLSXODWHG OHYHO RI VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH WKHUH VWLOO H[LVWV WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW WKH VWDWHG UHODWLRQVKLSV H[LVW VKLSV H[LVW ,W FRXOG DOVR EH DV ZHOO WKDW QR UHODWLRQ :KHQ K\SRWKHVHV DUH QRW ERUQH FXW LW GRHV QRW PHDQ WKDW WKH\ VKRXOG EH GLVFDUGHG 7KH QHJDWLYH UHVXOWV FRXOG EH GXH WR IDXOW\ FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH K\SRWKHVHV SRRU PHWKRGRORJLFDO WHFKQLTXHV LQDGHTXDWH PHDVXULQJ LQVWUXPHQWV RU WKDW WKH WKHRU\ WKH\ DUH WHVWLQJ LV LOO GHILQHG LGHDO FRQGLWLRQV IRU UHVHDUFK UDUHO\ H[LVW DQG WKHUH LV QR SHUIHFW UHVHDUFKHU +RZHYHU FDUH ZDV WDNDQ LQ WKH K\SRWKHVHV IRUPXODWLRQ DQG QR LQVXPDXQWDEH REVWDFOHV LQWHUYHQHG GXULQJ WKH ILHOG ZRUN 0RUHRYHU WKH PHDVXUHV RI HQJDJHPHQW XVHG DUH UHDVRQDEO\ YDOLG GHYLFHV 2QH RI WKH VFDOHV WKH /6,$ SUHVHQWHG SUREOHPV VHH $SSHQGL[ %f EXW LW ZDV QRW GLUHFWO\ LQYROYHG LQ K\SRWKHVHV WHVWLQJ 7KHUHIRUH LW PXVW EH FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH QHHG IRU WKH UHILQHPHQW RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW WKHRU\ FRQWLQXHV QG WKLV FDQ RQO\ EH DFFRPSOLVKHG WKURXJK

PAGE 118

IXWXUH UHVHDUFK 6RPH VXJJHVWLRQV IRU IXUWKHU ZRUN LQ WKLV DUHD DUH b SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH QH[W VHFWLRQ B6XF_BTHVW LRQV IRU IXUWKHU 5HVHDUFK 2QH RI WKH PDLQ SXUSRVHV RI UHVHDUFK LV WR SRLQW RXW DUHDV ZKHUH PRUH UHVHDUFK LV QHHGHG ,W LV XQNQRZQ DW WKLV WLPH MXVW KRZ PXFK SK\VLFDO KHDOWK SV\FKR $ ORJLFDO KHDOWK RU VRFLDO FRQGLWLRQV DUH UHODWHG WR DFWLYLW\ OHYHOV RU GHJUHH RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW 3HUKDSV QRWKLQJ VKRUW RI D PDVVLYH LQWHUGLVn FLSOLQDU\ VWXG\ ZLOO DGHTXDWHO\ GHDO ZLWK WKLV TXHVWLRQ F ZRXOG EH LQWHUHVWLQJ DV ZHOO WR FRQGXFW D JHURQWRORJLFDO VWXG\ XVLQJ WKH DPHQGHG /LIH 6DILVWDFW LRQ ,QGH[ VXJJHVWHG E\ WKLV ZRUN VHH $SSHQGL[ f $ IXWXUH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ PLJKW GHWHUPLQH DOVR ZK\ VH[ DQG UDFH VHHP QRW WR EH UHODWHG WR GLVHQJDJHPHQW DQG ZK\ EHLQJ PDUULHG EHLQJ QHZO\ZHG EHLQJ PDUULHG WR D \RXQJ VSRXVH EHLQJ XUEDQ DQG KDYLQJ D ODUJH QXPEHU RI VLEOLQJV DQG FKLOGUHQ DSSHDU WR NHHS RQH VOLJKWO\ PRUH HQJDJHG LQ VHPH DUHDV WKDQ RWKHU ROG SHRSOH ZKR ODFN WKHVH WKLQJV LW ZDV VKRZQ WKDW WKH QXPEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ ZDV OHVV VLJQLILn FDQW LQ UHGXFLQJ GLVHQJDJHPHQW DPRQJ QHZO\ZHG DJHGV WKDQ DJHGV LQ JHQHUDO 'RHV WKLV PHDQ WKDW ROG SHRSOH VWLOO FRQVLGHUHG DFWLYHO\ DV SDUW RI WKH IDPLO\ E\ WKHLU FKLOGUHQ DUH OHVV OLNHO\ WR PDUU\ DJDLQ DWH LQ LIH" ,Q UHSOLFDWLQJ WKLV HQWLUH VWXG\ HOVHZKHUH WR VHH LI WKH VDPH ILQGLQJV UHVXOW LW ZRXOG EH ZHOO WR LQFOXGH D SURSRUWLRQDWH QXPEHU RI LQVWLWXWLRQDOL]HG DJHG SHUVRQV LQ WKH VDPSOH &ODUN DQG *DOODWLQ 2f LQ D VWXG\ RI DJHG SHUVRQV IRXQG WKDW KRVSLWDOL]HG VXEMHFWV

PAGE 119

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f $V ZDV VWDWHG PRUH ZRUN QHHGV WR EH GRQH RQ KRZ SV\FKRORJLFDO IDFWRUV DQG VRFLDO FRQGLWLRQV DUH UHODWHG WR DQ LQGLYLGXDOnV DFWLYLW\ OHYHO RU GHJUHH RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW :KDW W\SH RI SHUVRQ LV PRUH DSW WR EH KDSS\ LI KH UHPDLQV LQYROYHG" :KDW W\SH RI SHUVRQ ZRXOG EH PRVW SURQH WR GLVHQJDJH" 7KHUH KDYH EHHQ VRPH DWWHPSWV DW DQVZHULQJ WKHVH TXHVWLRQV $OEUHFKW cf VWDWHG WKDW XSSHU PLGGOH DQG XSSHU FODVV SHUVRQV FRQWLQXH LQ D KLJK GHJUHH RI VRFLDO LQYROYHPHQW DQG SRVWSRQH SURIHVVLRQDO D LQDFWLYLW\ ZKHUHDV ORZHU PLGGOH DQG ORZHU FODVV SHRSOH DUH JODG WR ILQDOO\ HQG WKHLU ODERULQJ FDUHHUV 7KLV ZRXOG SXW WKH DQVZHU RQ D VRFLDO FO DVV EDVLV %LUUHQ f KHOG D QHDU RSSRVLWH YLHZSRLQW +H PDLQWDLQHG WKDW WKH ROGHU SHUVRQV ZKR OHG FXOWXUDOO\ GHSULYHG DQG VRFLDOO\ LVRODWHG OLYHV LQ WKHLU SUHUHWLUHPHQW \HDUV VKRZHG D KLJK GHJUHH RI OLIH VDWLVn IDFWLRQ ZKHQ PRYHG WR D PRUH DFWLYH OHYHO RI VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ DQG LQFUHDVHG

PAGE 120

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n PHQW :KHUHDV D ZRUNLQJ FODVV SHUVRQ ZKR KDV KHOG WKH VDPH VWHDG\ MRE DOO KLV ODERULQJ OLIH DQG DQ XSSHU PLGGOH FODVV SURIHVVLRQDO ZKR KDV HQMR\HG D VXFFHVVIXO FDUHHU PD\ ERWK UHIXVH WR UHWLUH DOEHLW IRU GLIn IHUHQW UHDVRQV ,W PD\ EH WKDW D ODERUHUnV SHQVLRQ LV VR LQDGHTXDWH WKDW KH IHHOV KH FDQnW VXUYLYH ZLWK LW DQG WKDW ZKLOH D SURIHVVLRQDO ZRUNHUnV UHWLUHPHQW SODQ PD\ EH VXIILFLHQW KH GRHVQnW ZDQW WR JLYH XS WKH VWDWXV DQG SUHVWLJH FRQQHFWHG ZLWK DFWLYLW\ LQ KLV ZKLWH FROODU RFFXSDWLRQ $ IXUWKHU VWXG\ PLJKW GLVFHUQ LI WKLV LV WKH FDVH ,W LV LPSRUWDQW LQ UHVHDUFK VWXGLHV WHVWLQJ WKHRULHV RI DJLQJ WKDW WKH DWWULWLRQDO ORVV EH NHSW QHJOLJLEOH 0HUFHU DQG %XWOHU f VWDWHG WKDW WKH UHIXVDOV WHQG WR EH PRUH GLVHQJDJHG WKDQ FRRSHUDWLYHV 7KH UHIXVDO UDWH LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZDV PLQLPDO ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKHUH ZHUH WZR UHIXVDOV LQ WKLV VWXG\ DERXW ZKLFK VRPHWKLQJ ZDV NQRZQ 2QH VXEMHFW GHPDQGHG WKDW WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH EH VXUUHQGHUHG WR KLP DIWHU LW ZDV DOO FRPSOHWHG 7KH UHVHDUFKHU RQFH RXWVLGH ILOOHG LQ D QHZ EODQN IRUP

PAGE 121

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n HQJDJHG WKDQ FRRSHUDWL YHV +RZHYHU WKLV GRHV QRW GHWUDFW IURP WKH QHFHVVLW\ RI NHHSLQJ WKH UHVSRQVH UDWH DV KLJK DV SRVVLEOH LQ JHURQWRn ORJLFDO ZRUN 3HUKDSV LQ QR RWKHU ILHOG LV D ORQJLWXGLQDO VXFFHVVLRQDO VWXG\ QHHGHG PRUH WKDQ LQ JHURQWRORJ\ ,W LV LPSHUDWLYH WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU RU QRW DJHG DGDSWDWLRQV DUH PHUHO\ FRQWLQXDWLRQV LQ DQ HVWDEOLVKHG SHUVRQDO OLIH VW\OH 7KH 'XNH *HULDWULF 6WXG\ ZDV D VXFFHVVLRQDO GHVLJQr EXW LWV HPSKDVLV ZDV PHGLFDO UDWKHU WKDQ VRFLDO KRZHYHU LW GLG SRLQW RXW WKH JUHDW GLIILFXOW\ ZLWK SDQHO PDLQWHQDQFH LQKHUHQW LQ ORQJLWXGLQDO VWXGLHV LQ JHURQWRORJ\ 0DGGR[ f 7KLV SDUWLFXODU VWXG\ FHQWHUHG LQ WKH DUHD RI JHURQWRORJ\ EXW LW LV UHSOHWH ZLWK SRVVLELOLWLHV IRU IXUWKHU VWXGLHV FRQFHQWUDWLQJ RQ WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI ODWH PDUULDJH LQ WKH DUHD RI WKH IDPLO\ $ VWXG\ FRPn ELQLQJ WKH VSHFLDOLWLHV RI JHURQWRORJ\ DQG WKH IDPLO\ PLJKW GHWHUPLQH

PAGE 122

WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI ROG SHUVRQV ZKR ZRXOG EH ZLOOLQJ WR OLYH LQ D IDPLO\ XQLW VLPLODU WR WKDW VXJJHVWHG E\ 9LFWRU .DVVHO f RU VRPH RWKHU IRUP RI JUDGXDWHG SRO\J\Q\ RU YROXQWDU\ JURXS PDUULDJH &HUWDLQO\ WKHUH DUH VRPH EHKDYLRUDO VFLHQWLVWV 2WWR HW DMB f ZKR VWURQJO\ IHHO WKDW WKHUH RXJKW WR EH PRUH RSWLRQV RSHQ WR LQGLYLGXDOV LQ WKLV VRFLHW\ DV UHJDUGV PDULWDO IRUPV 7KH DJHG PD\ EH WKH EHVW FDWHJRU\ WR EHJLQ H[SHULPHQWLQJ ZLWK YDU\LQJ PDUULDJH VWUXFWXUH ,W LV D IDFW WKDW D KLJKHU SHUFHQWDJH RI ERWK $PHULFDQ PHQ DQG ZRPHQ KDYH H[SHULHQFHG SOXUDO VSRXVHV WKDQ KDV WKH PDOH FLWL]HQU\ RI DQ\ 0RVOHP QDWLRQ %HUQDUG f 7KLV KROGV HYHQ PRUH WUXH IRU DJHG $PHULFDQV +HQFH ZLWK WKLV H[SHULHQFH DQG ZLWKRXW KDYLQJ WR ZRUU\ DERXW EULQJLQJ QHZERUQ FKLOGUHQ LQWR D QRQPRQRJDPRXV KRPH WKH DJHG ZRXOG EH DQ LGHDO DJH JURXS f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

PAGE 123

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f &RPSOHPHQWDU\ QHHGV PD\ DOVR EH D IDFWRU VLQFH SHUFHQW RI WKH HOGHUO\ ZLYHV ZHUH HPSOR\HG RXWVLGH WKH KRPH IRU D VDODU\ $ IXWXUH VWXG\ RI PDUULDJHV FRQWUDFWHG ODWH LQ OLIH VKRXOG DOVR WHVW WKH URHUHYHUVD K\SRWKHVLV ERWK ZLWKLQ HDFK VSRXVHnV IDPLO\ RI JHQHUDWLRQ DQG LQ WKHLU PDUULDJH 'RHV WKH PDWXULW\ RI FKLOGUHQ DQG FRQn FRPLWDQW GHSHQGHQF\ RI SDUHQWV OHDG WKH QRZDGXOW RIIVSULQJ WR DVVXPH

PAGE 124

UHVSRQVLELOLW\ IRU WKH JXLGDQFH RI WKHLU HOGHUO\ SDUHQWV" $ W\SLFDO UHPDUN IURP D VXEMHFW PLJKW EH 7KLUW\ \HDUV DJR KDG WR JLYH P\ SHUn PLVVLRQ IRU P\ GDXJKWHU WR PDUU\ EHFDXVH VKH ZDV XQGHU QRZ ,nP RYHU DQG ZDQW WR JHW PDUULHG EXW KDYH WR VHH LI LW LV DOO ULJKW ZLWK KHU ILUVW $ VKLIW LQ WKH WUDGLWLRQDO EDODQFH RI SRZHU EHWZHHQ WKH EULGH DQG JURRP PD\ OHDG WR LQWHUQDO UROH UHYHUVDO +HOOHU aAf LQ D VWXG\ RI \RXQJHU PDUULHGV IRXQG WKDW SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ WKH ODERU IRUFH LV PXFK DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQFUHDVHG LQIOXHQFH E\ WKH ZLIH LQ IDPLO\ GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ ,W ZRXOG EH IUXLWIXO WR VHHN RXW ZKHWKHU WKLV ILQGLQJ Zc DOVR KROG IRU ROGHU PDUULHGV GHSHQGLQJ RQ ZKLFK RQH KDV WKH JUHDWHU LQFRPH ZKRVH KRXVH WKH\ DUH OLYLQJ LQ ZKR RZQV WKH IXUQLWXUH ZKR LV f f PRUH UREXVW $Q HOGHUO\ KXVEDQGnV UHGXFHG IXQFWLRQDOLW\ PD\ FDXVH WKH OHDGHUVKLS UROH WR EH WUDQVIHUUHG WR WKH ZLIH 2I FRXUVH WKH ODZ RI VXSSO\ DQG GHPDQG PXVW EH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW 7KH YHU\ VFDUFLW\ RI PDOHV LQ WKHVH DGYDQFHG DJH JURXSV PD\ EH VR JUDWLI\LQJ WR DQ ROGHU ODG\ b ZKR KDV RQH WKDW VKH ZLOO JLYH KLP PXFK GHIHUHQFH 7KLV VWXG\ VHHPHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW FKLOGUHQ GR QRW DSSHDU WR PLQG VHHLQJ WKHLU HOGHUO\ SDUHQW JHWWLQJ UHPDUULHG 7KLV ILQGLQJ FRQn IOLFWV ZLWK WKH DVVHUWDWLRQ RI WKH 0F.DLQ VWXG\ ,Q VXSSRUWLQJ KLV SRVLWLRQ 0F.DLQ FLWHG WKH IDFW WKDW LQ &RQQHFWLFXW QHDUO\ RQH RXW RI HYHU\ ILYH PDUULDJHV LQYROYLQJ ROGHU SHUVRQV KDYH RQH RU ERWK SDUWQHUV FRPLQJ IURP DQRWKHU VWDWH f 0F.DLQ DVVXPHG IURP WKLV WKDW WKH FRXSOHV ZHUH WU\LQJ WR JHW DZD\ IURP WKHLU FKLOGUHQ WR KDYH WKH PDUULDJH

PAGE 125

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nW PDNH WKH WULS IRU KRQH\n PRRQ SXUSRVHV RQO\ 0F.DLQ VXJJHVWV r WKDW WKH PDMRU UHDVRQ ROGHU SHRSOH NHHS WKHLU PDULWDO SODQV IURP WKHLU FKLOGUHQ LV WKH IHDU WKDW WKH FKLOGUHQ PD\ WU\ WR SXW D VWRS WR LW %XW VHQLRU FLWL]HQV DUH RYHU DQG FDQ JHW PDUULHG DW DQ\ WLPH LQ DQ\ VWDWH LQ WKH XQLRQ DQG WKHUH LV QRWKLQJ WKDW DQ\RQH FDQ OHJDOO\ GR DERXW LW ,W FDQ EH DUJXHG KRZHYHU WKDW SHUKDSV WKH SURVSHFWLYH DJHG FRXSOHV GR QRW ZDQW WR EH VXEMHFWHG WR WKH PDQ\ LQIRUPDO SUHVVXUHV WKDW FKLOGUHQ PD\ EH DEOH WR EULQJ WR EHDU DJDLQVW WKH PDUULDJH ,I VHFUHF\ LV WKH LVVXH WKHQ LV LW D WHPSRUDU\ VHFUHF\ RU D SHUPDQHQW RQH" 'RHV WKH FRXSOH SODQ WR GLVDSSHDU IRUHYHU IURP WKHLU FKLOGUHQ RU GR WKH\ SODQ WR VXUIDFH VRPHn ZKHUH DW VRPH WLPH DIWHU WKH FHUHPRQ\ LV RIILFLDOO\ SHUIRUPHG" 7KH IRUPHU LV YHU\ XQOLNHO\ EXW LI WKH ODWWHU LV WKH FDVH ZK\ ZRXOG WKH FRXSOH JR VR IDU DZD\ DQG FURVV VWDWH OLQHV ZKHQ D SULYDWH FHUHPRQ\ FRXOG EH KDG LQ WKH RIILFH RI D MXVWLFH RI SHDFH RQH RU WZR FRXQWLHV IURP KRPH" 7KLV FRXOG EH DFFRPSOLVKHG LQ D IHZ KRXUVr GULYLQJ WLPH

PAGE 126

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

PAGE 127

,I WKHUH LV RQH WKLQJ WKDW WKLV VWXG\ SURYHV FRQFOXVLYHO\ LW LV WKDW 7DOFRWW 3DUVRQV ZDV ULJKW LQ KLV )RUHZDUG WR WKH ERRN *URZLQJ 2OG &XPPLQJ DQG +HQU\ YYLLLf ZKHUHLQ KH SUHGLFWHG WKDW WKH VXEMHFW RI GLVHQJDJHPHQW ZRXOG EHFRPH WKH IRFXV RI GLVFXVVLRQ DQG UHVHDUFK IRU VRPH WLPH r

PAGE 128

$33(1',; $ ,17(59,(: 6&+('8/( *HQH UD ,QIRUPDWLRQ,QGHSHQGHQW 9D UcDEHV WHUQ *URXS ([SHULPHQWDO &RPSDULVRQ +LJKHVW (GXFDWLRQDO /HYHO &RPSOHWHG $ 1R VFKRROLQJ % *UDPPDU 6FKRRO FLUFOH RQHf & +LJK 6FKRRO &RO OHJH ( 2WKHU 6SHFLI\ ZLWK QXPEHU RI \HDUVf 1XPEHU RI 3UHYLRXV 0DUULDJHV ([SHULPHQWDO *URXS 2QO\f 9D\ SUHYLRXV PDUULDJH HQGHG ([S *URXS 2QO\f ,I SUHYLRXV PDUULDJH HQGHG LQ GLYRUFH LQ ZKLFK 6WDWH ZDV LW JUDQWHG" ([S *URXS 2QO\f 3UHVHQW 0DULWDO 6WDWXV 1XPEHU RI \HDUV LQ SUHVHQW VWDWXV 6H[ 0DOH )HPDOH 3ULPDU\ OLIHWLPH RFFXSDWLRQ 3UHVHQW HPSOR\PHQW VWDWXV ,I UHWLUHG IURP SULPDU\ OLIHWLPH RFFXSDWLRQ EXW VWLOO ZRUNLQJ KRZ PDQ\ \HDUV UHWLUHG IURP SULPDU\ OLIHWLPH RFFXSDWLRQ" ,I IXOO\ UHWLUHG QXPEHU RI \HDUV IXOO\ UHWLUHG 1XPEHU RI OLYLQJ FKLOGUHQ 1XPEHU RI OLYLQJ VLEOLQJV 8UEDQ 5XUDO /RFDWLRQ RI SUHVHQW UHVLGHQFH

PAGE 129

L Q W H U Y HZf 5DFH 'RHV KRXVH KDYH WHOHSKRQH 6WDWH RI 5HVSRQGHQWnV ELUWK 5HVSRQGHQWnV DJH DW ODVW ELUWKGD\ 2QO\ IRU VXEMHFWV LQ LQWDFW PDUULDJHV DW WKH WLQH RI WK %RWK SDUWQHUV RYHU 6SRXVH VWL XQGHU 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH /L IHVSDFH 0HDVXUH ,WHP I 6FRUH b 1XPEHU RI RWKHUV LQ KRXVHKROG PXOWLSO\ E\ LI UHVSRQGHQW OLYHV DORQH PDUN ]HURf 1HZ WKLQN RI DOO \RXU UHODWLYHV 0RZ PDQ\ RI WKHVH ZRXOG \RX VD\ WKDW \RX IHHO UHDOO\ FORVH WR" 7U\ WR SLQ WKH UHVSRQGHQW GRZQ WR D VSHFLILF QXPEHU HYHQ LI RQO\ DQ DSSUR[ LPDWHf 1RZ WDNH WKHVH UHODWLYHV \RX IHHO FORVHVW WKHVH GR \RX VHH IUHTXHQF\ QXPEHU $ (YHU\ GD\ % $W OHDVW RQFH D ZHHN & $ IHZ WLQnHV D PRQWK $ERXW RQFH D PRQWK ( $ERXW RQFH D \HDU I $OPRVW QHYHUaKDYHQW VHHQ LQ \HDUV 1RZ WKLQN RI DOO WKH SHRSOH \RX NQRZ H[FOXGLQJ UHODWLYHV +RZ PDQ\ RI WKHVH ZRXOG \RX FRQVLGHU FORVH IULHQGV WKDW LV SHRSOH \RX FDU FRQILGH LQ DQG WDON RYHU SHUVRQDO PDWWHUV ZLWK" ,I LPSRVVLEOH WR JLYH VSHFLILF QXPEHU WKHQ JHW WKH UHVSRQGHQW WR PDNH DQ HVWLPDWHf WR KRZ PDQ\ RI 6FRUH PX WLS\ QXPEHU E\ f

PAGE 130

0RZ WDNH WKHVH FORVH IULHQGV \RX JHW WRJHWKHU ZLWK I UHTXHQF\ KRZ PDQ\ RI Q XUQ EHU WQHP GR 6FRUH PXOWLSO\ QXPEHU E\ f $ (YHU\ GD\ $W OHDVW RQFH D ZHHN & $ IHZ WLPHV D PRQWK $ERXW RQFH D PRQWK ( $ERXW RQFH D \HDU ) $OPRVW QHYHUKDYHQW VHHQ LQ \HDUV 1RZ WKLQN RI WKH QHLJKERU WKDW \RX VHH PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ GR QRW LQFOXGH D FORVH IULHQG RU UHODWLYH KRZ RIWHQ GR \RX WDON WR WKLV QHLJKERU" ,I WKH VXEMHFW FRQn YHUVHV ZLWK QR VXFK QHLJKERU PDUN ]HUR KHUH f 6FRUH PX SO\ I UHTXHQF\ QXPEHU QXPEHU E\ f $ (YHU\ GD\ % $W OHDVW RQFH D ZHHN & $ IHZ WLPHV D PRQWK $ERXW RQFH D PRQWK ( $Q\WKLQJ OHVV ,Q WKH FRXUVH RI D GD\ RQ WKH MRE DERXW KRZ PDQ\ SHRSOH GR \RX VHH DQG WDON WR" ,I WKH UHVSRQGHQW LV QR ORQJHU HPSOR\HG WKHQ OHDYH LW EODQN LI KH ZRUNV WRWDOO\ DORQH PDUN LW ]HURPX L SO\ DOO WKH RWKHU QXPEHUV E\ f KRZ DERXW SHRSOH \RX VHH IRU FHUWDLQ VSHFLILF SXUSRVHV OLNH VWRUHNHHSHUV EXV GULYHUV PDLOPHQ ZDLWUHVVHV JDV VWDWLRQ DWWHQGDQWV ZDLWHUV PHWHU UHDGHUV VDOHVSHRSOH DQG VR RQ DERXW KRZ PDQ\ RI WKHVH SHRSOH GR \RX VHH SHU ZHHN ZRXOG \RX VD\" *HW DQ DYHUDJH DW OHDVW DQG WKHQ PXOWLSO\ WKDW QXPEHU E\ f 6XP

PAGE 131

&KXUFK DQG 9ROXQWDU\ 2UJDQL]DWLRQ 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ WHP +RZ RIWHQ GR \RX DWWHQG FKXUFK RU WHPSOH" $ 7ZLFH RU PRUH RIWHQ SHU ZHHN % 2QFH D ZHHN & 2QFH RU WZLFH D PRQWK 7ZR RU WKUHH WLPHV D \HDU ( 2Q YHU\ VSHFLDO RFFDVLRQV RQO\ ) 1HYHU 'R \RX EHORQJ WR DQ\ FKXUFK FRPPLWWHHV DX[LOLDULHVr WHDFK 6XQGD\ 6FKRRO RU DQ\WKLQJ OLNH WKDW" ,I \HV JHW D OLVW RI DOO DFWLYLWLHVf 1RZ ,nG OLNH \RX WR WKLQN YHU\ FDUHIXOO\ DQG WHOO PH LI \RX EHORQJ WR DQ\ QRQFKXUFK JURXSV FOXEV DVVRFLDWLRQV RU WKH OLNH GR \RX EHORQJ WR DQ\ VXFK JURXSV" ,I \HV JHW D OLVW RI DOO WKH RUJDQL]DWLRQV KRZ RIWHQ WKH VXEMHFWV DWWHQG HDFK DQG MXVW ZKDW KH GRHV DW WKHVH FOXEV LI KH PHUHO\ EHORQJV KLV SRVLWLRQ LV PHPEHU RQO\f 5ROH &RXQW 7KLV VHFWLRQ LV EDVHG RQ WKH UHVSRQVHV WR WKH LWHPV RQ WKH OLIH VSDFH PHDVXUH DQG FOXE DQG FKXUFK SDUWLFLSDWLRQ ,WHP f &RXQW 1XPEHU LQ KRXVHKROG LI UHVSRQGHQW OLYHV DORQH FRXQW ]HUR LI RQO\ RQH RWKHU WKDQ WKH UHVSRQGHQW OLYHV LQ WKH KRXVHKROG FRXQW IRU WZR RU PRUH SHRSOHr FRXQW f A )ULHQGV &RXQW LI DQ\ IULHQGV DUH PHQWLRQHG DQG ]HUR LI QRQH DUH PHQWLRQHGf 5HODWLYHV &RXQW DV IRU IULHQGV LI DQ\ LI QRQH` 1HLJKERUV &RXQW DV IRU IULHQGV DQG UHODWLYHVf 6SHFLILF 3HRSOH 6FRUH RQH SRLQW LI DQ\ DUH PHQWLRQHGr ]HUR SRLQWV LI QRQH DUH PHQWLRQHGf )HOORZ :RUNHUV 6FRUH RQH SRLQW LI HPSOR\HG DW DOO ]HUR SRLQWV LI QR ORQJHU ZRUNLQJf

PAGE 132

, WHUQ &KXUFK 6FRUH RQH SRLQW IRU UHVSRQVHV $ % RU &r ]HUR SRLQWV IRU UHVSRQVHV ( RU )f 2UJDQL]DWLRQV 6FRUH RQH SRLQW LI VXEMHFW LV D PHPEHU RI DQ\ ]HUR SRLQWV LI QRLW D PHPEHU RI DQ\f 6XP RI UROH FRXQW 3HUFH L YHG /L IHVSDFH WHUQ 'LG \RX VHH PRUH RU OHVV RI WKRVH UHODWLYHV\RX IHHO FORVHVW WR ZKHQ \RX ZHUH IRUW\ILYH \HDUV ROG WKDQ \RX GR DW \RXU SUHVHQW DJH" $QVZHU 6FRUH PRUH QRZ DERXW WKH VDPH PRUH WKHQ r 'LG \RX KDYH PRUH FORVH IULHQGV ZKRP \RX VDZ UHJXODUO\ ZKHQ \RX ZHUH IRUW\ILYH WKDQ \RX GR QRZ" $QVZHU 6FRUH PRUH QRZ DERXW WKH VDPH PRUH WKHQ :RXOG \RX VD\ WKDW \RX DUH PRUH RU OHVV RI D FKXUFKn JRHU QRZ WKDQ EDFN ZKHQ \RX ZHUH IRUW\ILYH" $QVZHU 6FRUH PRUH QRZ DERXW WKH VDPH RU QHYHU ZHQW PRUH WKHQ :RXOG \RX VD\ WKDW \RXnUH PRUH DFWLYH LQ FOXEV DQG RUJDQL]DWLRQV QRZ RU ZHUH \RX PRUH DFWLYH EDFN ZKHQ \RX ZHUH IRUW\ILYH \HDUV RI DJH" $QVZHU 6FRUH PRUH QRZ DERXW WKH VDPH RU QHYHU DFWLYH PRUH WKHQ &RXQW 6FRUH

PAGE 133

, WHP 7KLQNLQJ LQ WHUPV RI W\SLFDO ZHHN EDFN ZKHQ \RX ZHUH IRUW\ILYH ZRXOG \RX VD\ WKDW \RX VDZ DQG WDONHG ZLWK PRUH SHRSOH JHQHUDO W\SLFDO ZHHN QRZ DW \RX $QVZHU PRUH QRZ DERXW WKH VDPH PRUH WKHQ \ WKDQ \RX GR GXULQJ D SUHVHQW DJH" 6FRUH D f 6XP 6FRUH /LIH 6DWLVIDFWLRQ ,QGH[ $ 6FRUH RQH SRLQW IRU HDFK UHVSRQVH LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH ;Qf§f VFRUH ]HUR SRLQWV IRU RWKHU DQVZHUVf WHP DP MXVW DV KDSS\ DV ZKHQ ZDV \RXQJHU 7KHVH DUH WKH EHVW \HDUV RI P\ OLIH 0\ OLIH FRXOG EH KDSSLHU WKDQ LW LV QRZ 7KLV LV WKH GUHDULHVW WLPH RI P\ OLIH 0RVW RI WKH WKLQJV GR DUH ERULQJ DQG PRQRWRQRXV &RPSDUHG WR RWKHU SHRSOH JHW GRZQ LQ WKH GXPSV WRR RIWHQ 6XEWRWDO 7KH WKLQJV GR DUH DV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR PH DV WKH\ HYHU ZHUH ; KDYH PDGH SODQV IRU WKLQJV ,nOO EH GRLQJ D PRQWK RU D \HDU IURP QRZ ; &RPSDUHG WR RWKHU SHRSOH P\ DJH PDNH D JRRG DSSHDUDQFH ; $V JURZ ROGHU WKLQJV VHHP EHWWHU WKDQ WKRXJKW WKH\ ZRXOG EH ; H[SHFW VRPH LQWHUHVWLQJ DQG SOHDVDQW WKLQJV WR KDSSHQ WR PH LQ WKH IXWXUH ; IHHO ROG DQG VRPHZKDW WLUHG 6XEWRWDO $J UHH B; ; L VDJUHH ; ; ; ; 8QFHUWDLQ

PAGE 134

/HP f f $V ORRN EDFN RQ P\ OLIH DP IDLUO\ ZHO VDWLVI L HG ZRXOG QRW FKDQJH P\ SDV W OLIH HYHQ LI HFX G nYH JRWWH Q SUHWW\ PXFK ZKDW H[SHFWHG RX W RI L IH $JUHH 'LVDJUHH 8QFHUWDLQ 6XE WRWD :KHQ WKLQN EDFN RYHU P\ OLYH GLGQfW JHW PRVW RI WKH LPSRUWDQW WKLQJV ZDQWHG ,Q VSLWH RI ZKDW SHRSOH VD\ WKH ORW RI WKH DYHUDJH PDQ LV JHWWLQJ ZRUVH QRW EHWWHU KDYH JRWWHQ PRUH RI WKH EUHDNV LQ OLIH WKDQ PRVW SHRSOH NQRZ 6XEWRWDO &RPSDUHG WR RWKHU SHRSOH P\ DJH ,nYH PDGH D ORW RI IRROLVK GHFLVLRQV LQ P\ LIH IHHO P\ DJH EXW LW GRHV QRW ERWKHU PH 6XE WRWD 7RWDO 2SHQHQGHG .DUUL DJH 4XHULHV WHUQ 'LG DQ\ RI \RXU FKLOGUHQ REMHFW WR \RXU PDUULDJH" 'LG DQ\RQH REMHFW WR \RXU PDUULDJH" +RZ ORQJ GLG \RX NQRZ HDFK RWKHU EHIRUH \RX PDUULHG" $UH \RX ERWK WKH VDPH UHOLJLRQ" ,V WKH ZLIH ZRUNLQJ RXWVLGH WKH KRPH" ,I D IULHQG RI \RXUV ZDV FRQWHPS DWLQJ D ODWHLQOLIH PDUUDLJH ZKDW DGYLFH ZRXOG \RX JLYH KLP" :KDW ZDV WKH PDMRU UHDVRQ ZK\ \RX WZR GHFLGHG WR PDUU\"

PAGE 135

$33(1',; % 48$/,7$7,9( $1$/<6,6 2) $ /,)( 6$7,6)$&7,21 ,1'(; $ 0(7+2'2/2*,&$/ 127( $ WRRO DOUHDG\ LQ ZLGH XVDJH LQ WKH ILHOG KDV WZR GLVWLQFW DGYDQn WDJHV RYHU WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI D QHZ LQVWUXPHQW E\ WKH UHVHDUFKHU )LUVW WKH HVWDEOLVKHG PHDVXUH KDV DOUHDG\ EHHQ YDOLGDWHG DQG WKHUHE\ HOLPLQDWHV WKH FRVWO\ DQG WLPHFRQVXPLQJ SUHWHVWLQJ WKDW ZRXOG EH QHFHVVLWDWHG LI D 1 QHZ TXHVWLRQQDLUH KDG WR EH GHYLVHG VROHO\ IRU WKH SXUSRVHV RI WKLV VWXG\ 6HFRQGO\ D VFDOH GHYHORSHG HDUOLHU ZLOO KDYH EHHQ XVHG LQ SDVW UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV DQG WKH UHVXOWV SXEOLVKHG WKXV HQDEOLQJ WKH UHVHDUFKHU WR FRPn SDUH DQG FRQWUDVW KLV RZQ ILQGLQJV +RZHYHU SUREOHPV ZHUH H[SHFWHG DQG LQ IDFW HQFRXQWHUHG ZLWK WKH XVH RI WKH /LIH 6DWLVIDFWLRQ ,QGH[ $ LQ WKLV VWXG\ 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKLV VHFWLRQ LV QRW PHUHO\ IRU WKH UHVHDUFKHU WR DVVXPH WKH UROH RI FULWLF EXW WR SRLQW RXW VRPH RI WKH GLIILFXOWLHV HQn FRXQWHUHG LQ WKH ILHOG VR WKDW IXWXUH ZRUNHUV FDQ EH JXLGHG E\ WKLV H[SHULHQFH $V VWDWHG GLIILFXOWLHV ZHUH SUHGLFWHG EHIRUH WKH DWWHPSW DQG LW EHFDPH DSSDUHQW GXULQJ WKH ILHOG H[SHULHQFH WKDW WKH DGPLQLVWHULQJ RI WKH /6,$ LV SUREOHPDWLFDO LQ FHUWDLQ DVSHFWV 2WKHUV KDYH DOUHDG\ RIIHUHG D JRRG GHDO RI FULWLFLVP RI WKLV LQVWUXPHQW :RRG :\OLH DQG 6KHDIHU DQG $GDPV f 0XFK RI WKH SUREOHP LV GXH WR WKH ZD\ LQ ZKLFK WKH GHn YLFH LV ZRUGHG 7R EHJLQ ZLWK WKH LWHPV DUH SKUDVHG LQ WKH ILUVW SHUVRQ $ GHULYDWLYH RI RU ffP\ DSSHDUV WLPHV LQ VKRUW LWHPV 2QH

PAGE 136

TXHU\ KDV QR SURQRXQV LQ LW DW DOOf $QG WR WKHVH WKH UHVSRQGHQW LV DVNHG WR UHSO\ ZLWK WKH PRUH FXPEHUVRP 0DJUHHGLVDJUHHXQFHUWDLQfr WULFKRWRP\ UDWKHU WKDQ WKH VLPSOH \HVQRGRQ NQRZ 1R PDWWHU KRZ ZHOO H[SODLQHG EHIRUHKDQG LW LV GLIILFXOW IRU WKH LQWHUYLHZHU WR UHDG DQG WKH VXEMHFW WR DQVZHU WKHVH LWHPV FRPIRUWDEO\ LQ WKH GHVFULEHG IDVKLRQ 7R EH VXUH WKH RULJLQDO TXHVWLRQQDLUH ZDV GHVLJQHG WR EH VHOI DGPLQLVWHUHG EXW HYHQ VR LW ZRXOG EH EHWWHU LI WKH LWHUDV ZHUH ZRUGHG LQ WKH WKLUG SHUVRQ %HFDXVH LQ HVVHQFH WKH LQVWUXPHQW LV DVNLQJ WKH TXHVn WLRQV ,W ZRXOG EH OHVV GLVTXLHWLQJ HYHQ IRU D UHDGHU LI WKH VWDWHPHQWV ZHUH LQ WKH WKLUG SHUVRQ 7KH UXOH WKDW ZDV IROORZHG LQ WKH LQWHUYLHZV LQ 0 WKLV SURMHFW ZDV WKDW LI WKH UHVSRQGHQW ZDV FRQIXVHG WKH LWHP ZRXOG EH UHUHDG H[DFWO\ DV LW ZDV LI WKH UHVSRQGHQW VWLOO GLG QRW FRPSUHKHQG WKH TXHVWLRQ ZDV UHZRUGHG LQ WKH WKLUG UHDGLQJ WR PDNH LW FOHDUHU ,Q DOO FDVHV ZKHQ D WKLUG UHDGLQJ EHFDPH QHFHVVDU\ WKH VXEMHFW XQGHUVWRRG LPPHGLDWHO\ ,Q PRVW FDVHV WKH VXEMHFW UHVSRQGHG \HVQRGRQ r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f

PAGE 137

KL DQVZHU WR WKH IRUPHU RQH WKLUWHHQ UHVSRQGHQWV JDYH DPELJXRXV UHSOLHV 7KHLU H[DFW DQVZHUV ZHUH 6RPHWcPHV WZR VXEMHFWVf 6RPHn WLPHV EXW QRW JHQHUDOO\ 6RPHWLPHV GR DQG VRPHWLPHV GRQnW n6RPH O L PHV IHHO ROG DQG VRPHWLPHV IHHO WLUHG DIWHU VRPH DFWLYLW\ EXW WKH\ DUH QRW UHODWHG 0 L! KDYH JRRG GD\V DQG EDG GD\V LL LL GRQnW IHHO ROG EXW MXVW FDQnW KROG RXW DV ZHOO DV XVHG WR VR GR JHW WLUHG RQFH LQ D ZKL H LL Q GRQfW IHHO ROG EXW GR JHW WLUHG Q LL GRQ W IHHO WLUHG EXW GR IHHO ROG LL Q IHHO ROG DQG D JUHDW GHDO WLUHG LW LW Q VRPH ZD\V IHHO WLUHG EXW QRWDOO GRQfW IHHO ROG WZR VXEMHFWVf ,Q UHSO\ WR WKH ODWWHU HQH O IHHO P\ DJH DQG LW GRHV QRW ERWKHU Q f D WRWDO RI WKLUW\RQH UHVSRQGHQWV JDYH DPELJXRXV DQVZHUV L KHLU H[DFW UHVSRQVHV ZHUH GRQnW IHHO P\ DJH WZR VXEMHFWVf GRQfW IHH L P \ DJH DQG LW GRHV QRW ERWKHU PH ILYH VXEMHFWVf GRQfW WKLQN DERXW P\ DJH GRQnW IHHO LW DQG LW YHU\ UDUHO\ ERWKHUV PH 0 LL GRQnW IHHO ROG DQG QRWKLQJ ERWKHUV PH LL Q GR QRW IHHO P\ DJH DQG GRQnW HYHU UHDOL]H WKDW LW ERWKHUV PH LL LW GR QRW IHHO LW DQG LW GRQnW ERWKHU PH GR QRW IHHO EXW VXUH LW ERWKHUV PH LL LL GRQ W IHHO LW EXW LW GHHV ERWKHU PH DQG LW ZRXOG DQ\ERG\ HOVH P\ DJH $W WLPHV LW GRHV DQG DW WL PHV LW GHHVQW ,, 6RPHWL PHV LL LL IHHO P\ DJH DQG LW VXUH GRHV ERWKHU PH WKUHH VXEMHFWVf IHHO P\ DJH DQG LW VXUH ERWKHUV PH IHHO P\ DJH DQG LW GRHV ERWKHU PH WZR VXEMHFWVf IHHO LW DQG LW GRHV ERWKHU cQH WYR VXEMHFWVf IHHO LW DQG LW GR ERWKHU PH IHHO P\ DJH DQG WKLV ERWKHUV PH IHHO P\ DJH DQG LW ERWKHUV PH D ZKROH ORW IHHO LW DQG LW DOVR ERWKHUV PH DQG \HV LW ERWKHUV PH , n IHH LW

PAGE 138

0O IHHO LW DQG QDWXUDOO\ LW ERWKHUV PH IHHO P\ DJH DQG LW ERWKHUV PH EHFDXVH JHW WLUHG DQG FDQnW JHW DURXQG OLNH XVHG WR ,W TXLFNO\ EHFDPH DSSDUHQW WKDW DQ LWHP WKDW DVNV WZR TXHVWLRQV FDQQRW DOZD\V EH DQVZHUHG FRPSOHWHO\ LQ WKH DIILUPDWLYH RU HQWLUHO\ LQ WKH QHJDWLYH :KHQ WKH TXHVWLRQV ZHUH UHUHDG IRU WKH WKLUG WLPH DQ H[SODQDn WLRQ ZDV DWWHPSWHG (YHQ WKHQ PRVW RI WKH UHVSRQVHV VWLOO IHOO LQWR WKH D XQFHUWDLQ FDWHJRU\ 6LQFH ERWK LWHPV XQGHU GLVFXVVLRQ VHHN WKH VDPH LQIRUPDWLRQ SHUKDSV RQH FRXOG EH HOLPLQDWHG DQG WKH RWKHU GLYLGHG VR WKDW WKH GDWD FRXOG EH EURXJKW LQ OHVV SUREOHPDWLFDOO\ ZLWKRXW DGGLQJ WR RU VXEWUDFWLQJ IURP WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI LWHPV 7KH WZR TXHVWLRQV WKDW VKRXOG KDYH WKH QHJDWLYH SKUDVLQJ FKDQJHG DUH 0O ZRXOG QRW FKDQJH P\ SDVW OLIH HYHQ LI FRXOG DQG :KHQ WKLQN EDFN RYHU P\ OLIH GLGQnW JHW PRVW RI WKH LPSRUWDQW WKLQJV ZDQWHG 6RPH H[DFW UHSOLHV WR WKH IRUPHU ZHUH 3DUW RI LW 3DUWV ZRXOG FKDQJH SDUWV ZRXOGQnW
PAGE 139

WR PLVV RXW RQ KHDYHQ DQG RQH UHVSRQGHQW ZLWKRXW VROLFLWDWLRQ FRPn SODLQHG DERXW WKH GRXEOH QHJDWLYH DQG WKHQ DQVZHUHG GLG 7KH GRXEOH QHJDWLYH TXHULHV ZHUH VRPHWLPHV FRPSOLFDWHG E\ GRXEOH QHJDWLYH UHVSRQVHV VXFK DV 1R FDQnW VD\ WKDW RU RWKHU UHSOLHV WKDW FDXVHG YH[DWLRQ VXFK DV
PAGE 140

2QH TXHVWLRQ ZRUGHG ,nYH JRWWHQ SUHWW\ PXFK ZKDW H[SHFWHG RXW RI OLIH ZKLFK DWWHPSWHG WR PHDVXUH WKH GHJUHH RI FRQJUXHQF\ EHWZHHQ GHVLUHG DQG DFKLHYHG JRDOV ZDV DQVZHUHG ,nYH JRWWHQ PRUH WKDQ H[SHFWHG RU HYHU KRSHG IRU 7HFKQLFDOO\ WKLV VKRXOG EH SODFHG LQ WKH XQFHUWDLQ FDWHn JRU\ DOWKRXJK WKLV PD\ QRW EH WKH LPSOLFDWLRQ 2QH TXHU\ LQ WKH UHVROXWLRQ DQG IRUWLWXGH SDUW KDYH JRWWHQ PRUH RI WKH EUHDNV LQ OLIH WKDQ PRVW SHRSOH NQRZ GUHZ D UHSO\ JRW IHZHU EUHDNV WKDQ PRVW EXW WRRN EHWWHU DGYDQWDJH RI WKHP *UD PP D WLF DOO\ WKLV UHVSRQVH ZRXOG KDYH WR EH FRQVLGHUHG GLVDJUHHPHQW DQG WKHUHIRUH UHFHLYHG ]HUR SRLQWV RQ WKH UHVROXWLRQ DQG IRUWLWXGH VFDOH ZKHQ REYLRXVO\ LW LQGLFDWHV D KLJK GHJUHH RI WKLV TXDOLW\ )LQDOO\ LQ WKH VFRULQJ V\VWHP WKLV UHVHDUFKHU RQ WKH VFHQH f f VHQVHG WKDW WKH XQFHUWDLQ UHVSRQVH UHIOHFWHG D PLGGOH DWWLWXGH EHWZHHQ WRWDO GLVDJUHHPHQW DQG WRWDO DJUHHPHQW DQG QRW D FRPSOHWH DEVHQFH RI IHHOLQJ LQ HLWKHU GLUHFWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH WKLV DXWKRU DJUHHV ZLWK :RRG :\OLH DQG 6FKHDIHU f WKDW WKH XQFHUWDLQ UHVSRQVH VKRXOG EH ZHLJKWHG LW PD\ EH DSSURSULDWH WR VXJJHVW D PRGLILHG /6,$ DQG VFRULQJ V\VWHP 7KLV PRGLILFDWLRQ VKRXOG WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WKH LWHPDQDO\VLV ZRUN RI $GDPV f +H IRXQG WKDW WKH ODVW WZR LWHPV RQ WKH LQVWUXPHQW ZKLFK SXUSRUW WR PHDVXUH VRFLDO VHOIFRQFHSW ZHUH YHU\ SRRUO\ FRUUHODWHG LQ DOO KLV DQDO\VHV WKHUHIRUH KH UHFRPPHQGHG WKDW WKH\ ERWK EH UHMHFWHG IURP IXUWKHU XVH LQ WKH /6,$ 2QH RI WKHVH ZDV RQH RI WKH GLYLGHG TXHVWLRQV FULWLFL]HG HDUOLHU 7KH RWKHU &RPSDUHG WR RWKHU SHRSOH P\ DJH ,nYH PDGH D ORW RI IRROLVK GHFLVLRQV LQ P\ OLIH GLG QRW GLVFULPLQDWH ZHOO LQ WKLV VWXG\ HLWKHU UHFHLYLQJ RQO\ QHJDWLYH UHSOLHV RXW RI UHVSRQVHV

PAGE 141

/DVWO\ PDQ\ XQHGXFDWHG UHVSRQGHQWV GLG QRW NQRZ WKH PHDQLQJ RI GUHDULHVW ORW RU PRQRWRQRXV $ PRGLILHG /6,$ LQVWUXPHQW DQG VFRULQJ NH\ ZRXOG FRQWUDVW ZLWK WKH /6,$ VFDOH DQG VFRULQJ PHWKRG WKXVO\ /6,$ DQG 6FRULQJ 0HWKRG DV 'HYHORSHG E\ 1HXJDUWHQ HW DO 0RRG 7RQH 3RUWLRQ DP MXVW DV KDSS\ DV ZKHQ ZDV \RXQJHU 7KHVH DUH WKH EHVW 0\ \HDUV L f Ir L UH RI P\ OLIH FRXOG EH KDSSLHU WKDQ 7KLV L V $ WLPH RI 0RVW RI LW LV QRZ WKH GUHDULHVW P\ OLIH WKH WKLQJV GR DUH ERULQJ DQG PRQRWRQRXV &RPSDUHG WR RWKHU SHRSOH JHW GRZQ LQ WKH GXPSV WRR RIWHQ 8 1 & 6 ( $$5 * 7 5 5 $ ( ( ( ( 1 6XJJHVWHG 0RGLILHG /6,$ DQG &KDQJHG 6FRULQJ 6\VWHP 0RRG 7RQH 3RUWLRQ $UH \RX DV KDSS\ QRZ DV $UH WKHVH WKH EHVW \HDUV RI \RXU LIH" &RXOG \RXU OLIH EH KDSSLHU WKDQ LW LV QRZ" N ,V WKLV WKH PRVW XQn KDSS\ WLPH RI \RXU LIH" $UH PRVW RI WKH WKLQJV \RX GR ERULQJ WR \RX" 'R \RX JHW GRZQ LQ WKH GXPSV PRUH WKDQ RWKHU SHRSOH" 1 7 < 1 ( 1 62: ZKHQ \RX ZHUH \RXQJHU" =HVW IRU /LIH 3RUWLRQ 7KH WKLQJV GR DUH DV LPHUHVWLQJ WR PH DV WKH\ HU ZHUH KDYH PDGH SODQV IRU WKLQJV ,nOO EH GRLQJ D PRQWK RU D \HDU IURP QRZ &RPSDUHG WR RWKHU SHRSOH P\ DJH PDNH D JRRG DSSHDUDQFH $V JURZ ROGHU WKLQJV VHHP EHWWHU WKDQ WKRXJKW WKH\ ZRXOG EH =HVW IRU /LIH 3RUWLRQ $UH WKH WKLQJV \RX DUH GRLQJ DV LQWHUHVWLQJ DV WKH\ HYHU ZHUH" +DYH \RX PDGH IXWXUH SODQV" &RPSDUHG WR RWKHU SHRSOH \RXU DJH GR \RX PDNH D JRRG DS SHD UDQHH" $V \RX JURZ ROGHU GR WKLQJV VHHP EHWWHU WKDQ \RX WKRXJKW WKH\ ZRXOG EH"

PAGE 142

X 1 & 6 ( $$5 * 7 5 5 $ ( ( =HVW IRU /LIH ( ( 1 3RUWLRQ FHQWLQXHGf H[SHFW VRPH LQWHUHVWn LQJ DQG SOHDVDQW WKLQJV WR KDSSHQ WR PH LQ WKH IXWXUH IHHO ROG DQG VRPHn ZKDW WLUHG &RQJUXHQF\ 3RUWLRQ $V ORRN EDFN RQ P\ OLIH DP ID LU \ ZHO VDWLVILHG ZRXOG QRW FKDQJH P\ SDV W OLIH HYHQ LI FRX,G ,nYH JRWWHQ SUHWW\ PXFK ZKDW H[SHFWHG RXW RI OLIH )RUWLWXGH 3RUW LRQ :KHQ WKLQN EDFN RYHU P\ OLIH GLGQnW JHW PRVW RI WKH LPSRUWDQW WKLQJV ZDQWHG ,Q VSLWH RI ZKDW SHRSOH VD\ WKH ORW RI WKH DYHUDJH PDQ LV JHWWLQJ ZRUVH QRW EHWWHU KDYH JRWWHQ PRUH RI WKH EUHDNV LQ OLIH WKDQ PRVW SHRSOH NQRZ 6HOI&RQFHSW 3RUWLRQ &RPSDUHG WR RWKHU SHRSOH P\ DJH YH PDGH D ORW RI IRROLVK GHFLVLRQV LQ P\ LIH IHHO P\ DJH EXW LW GRHV QRW ERWKHU PH < ( 1 =HVW IRU /L IH B6 3RUWLRQ LFRQW,QXHGf 'R \RX H[SHFW VRPH LQWHUHVWLQJ DQG SOHDVDQW WKLQJV WR KDSSHQ WR \RX LQ WKH IXWXUH" 'R \RX IHHO ROG" 'RHV \RXU DJH ERWKHU \RX" &RQJ UXHQFH\ 3RUWLRQ $V \RX ORRN EDFN RQ \RXU OLIH DUH \RX IDLUn O\ ZHO VDWLVILHG" :RXOG \RX FKDQJH SDUWV RI \RXU SDVW OLIH LI \RX FRXOG" +DYH \RX JRWWHQ SUHWW\ PXFK ZKDW \RX H[SHFWHG RXW RI U IH" )RUWLWXGH 3RUWLRQ +DYH \RX JRWWHQ PRVW RI WKH LPSRUWDQW WKLQJV \RX ZDQWHG RXW RI LIH" 'R \RX WKLQN WKH OLIH RI WKH DYHUDJH PDQ ,V JHWn WLQJ ZRUVH UDWKHU WKDQ EHWWHU" 'R \RX WKLQN \RXAYH WDNHQ EHWWHU DGYDQWDJH RI WKH EUHDNV LQ OLIH WKDQ PRVW SHRSOH" 1 7 1 :

PAGE 143

5()(5(1&(6 $GDPV 'DYLG /  $QD O\VLV RI r X /L RQWRORJ\ IH 6DW LVIDF WLRQ ,QGH[ -RXUQDO RI $ E UHFKW 3PM WK 6RFLDO 5ROHV RI 2OG 3HRSOH -RXUQDO RI *HURQWRORJ\ U A 6RFLDO )RUFHV 6RFLDO &ODVV LQ 2OG K\ 7KH 6RFLRORJLFDO ,"SDFW RI $JLQJ RQ 3UHVHQW'D\ &XOWXUH -RXUQDO RI WKH $PHULFDQ 3K\VLFDO 7KHUDS\ $VVRFLDWLRQ *FWRE HU %HDUG % A $UH WKH $JHG ([)DPLO\" 6RFLDO )RUFHV %HFN )UDQFHV 7KH 'LDU\ RI D :LGRZ 0HZ
PAGE 144

%URZQ )HOL[ :LGRZV DQG 2USKDQV 7KH )DPLO\ 'RFWRU 'HFHPEHUf %X UJ VV (UQHVW HG f c QD L QJ &KL FDJR :HVWHUQ 6RFLHWLHV $ 6XUYH\ RI 6RFLDO *HURQWRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &KLFDJR 3UHVV &DYDQ 5XWK 6 )DPLO\ /LIH DQG )DPLO\ 6XEVWLWXWHV 6RFLRORJLFDO 5HYLHZ )HEUXDU\f LQ 2OG $JH $PHULFDQ (UQHVW : %XUJHVV 5REHUW +DYLJKXUVW DQG +HUEHUW *ROGKDPHU UVRQDO $GMXVWPHQW LQ 2OG $JH &KLFDJR 6F L HULFH 5HVHDUFK $VVRFLDWHV ,UF A 3H &KDQJLQJ 7LPHV $ :LGHZ DQG +HU 0RQH\ $XJXVWf &ODUN 0DUJDUHW DQG %DUEDUD *DOODWLQ $QGHUVRQ &XOWXUH DQG $JLQJ 6SULQJILHOG ,OOLQRLV ,KRPDV &RFKUDQH $ / $ /LWWOH :LGRZ LV D 'DQFHURXV 7KLQJ M LQWHUQDWLRQD -RXUQD RI 3V\FKRDQDO\VLV 2FWREHUf & XPP L Q J ( D UH /RLV 5 'HDQ 6 +R YH DQG ,VDEHO $ 0F&DIIUH\ 'LVHQJDJHPHQWa$ 7HQWDWLYH 7KHRU\ RI $JLQJ 6RFLRPHWU\ ` 0DUFKf Q G f } O I f W I +HQUY *URZOQJ 2OG IOHZ
PAGE 145

*OHQQ 1 DQG 0 *ULPHV $JLQJ 9RWLQJ DQG 3ROLWLFDO ,QWHUHVW $PHULFDQ 6RFLRORJLFDO 5HYLHZ LFN 3DX & 7KH /LIH&\FOH RI WKH )DPLO\ 0DUULDJH DQG )DPLO\ /LYLQJ )HEUXDU\f +DJRRG 0DUJHUHW A 6WDWLVWLFV IRU 6RFLRORJLVWV 1HZ
PAGE 146

/DQGLV 3DXO + +REELHV DQG +DSSLQHVV LQ 2OG $JH 5HFUHDWLRQ /DQVLQJ -RKQ DQG /HVOLH .LVK 7KH )DPLO\ /LIH&\FOH DV DQ ,QGHSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH $PHULFDQ 6RFLRORJLFDO 5HYLHZ 2FWREHUf 0DGGR[ *HRUJH / 'LVHQJDJHPHQW 7KHRU\ $ &ULWLFDO (YDOXDWLRQ *HURQWRORJLVW -XQHf )DFW DQG $UWLIDFW (YLGHQFH %HDULQJ RQ WKH 'LVHQJDJHPHQW 7KHRU\ IURP WKH 'XNH 8QLYHUVLW\ *HULDWULFV 3URMHFW +XPDQ 'HYHORSPHQW 0DUULV 3HWHU :LGRZV DQG 7KHLU )DPLOLHV /RQGRQ 5XWOHGJH DQG .HJDQ 3DXO 0F.DLQ :DOWHU & 5HWLUHPHQW 0DUULDJH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &RQQHFWLFXW 0RQRJUDSK 1R 0HUFHU 6DP 5 DQG (GJDU : %XWOHU 'LVHQJDJHPHQW RI WKH $JHG 3RSXODWLRQ DQG 5HVSRQVH 'LIIHUHQWLD LQ 6XUYH\ 5HVHDUFK 6RFLDO )RUFHV 6HSWHPEHUf 0RVHV (DUO 5 5HODWLYHV LQ WKH +RXVHKROG RI 0RWKHU &KLOG 2$6, %HQHILFLDU\ *URXSV 6RFLDO 6HFXULW\ %XOOHWLQ 1R -XQHf 0\HUV 5REHUW 6WDWLVWLFDO 0HDVXUHV LQ WKH 0DULWDO /LIH &\FOHV RI 0HQ DQG :RPHQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 3RSXODWLRQ &RQIHUHQFH LQ 9LHQQD 1HXJDUWHQ %HUQLFH / DQG $VVRFLDWHV 3HUVRQDOLW\ LQ 0LGGOH DQG /DWH /LIH 1HZ
PAGE 147

3ROODN 6RFLDO $GMXVWPHQW LQ 2OG $JH $ 5HVHDUFK 3ODQQLQJ 5HSRUW 6RFLDO 6FLHQFH 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO %XOOHWLQ 0R 5LFKPRQG 0DU\ ( DQG )UHG 6 +D $ 6WXG\ RI 0LQH +XQGUHG 5XVVHOO 6DJH DQG ) L JKW\ )L YH L GRZV 0HZ
PAGE 148

6ZHQVRQ :HQGHOO 0 R 7KH 0DQ\ )DFHV RI $JLQJ *HULDWULFV 2FWREHUf 7LE WWV &O Q U K R HG f +DQGERRN RI 6RFLDO *HURQWRORJ\ &KLFDJR 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &KLFDJR 3UHVV 7KRUQ RQ :D\QH ( DQG *RUGRQ ) 6WUHLE /n& m6R 0HDQLQJIXO $FWLYLW\ LQ D )DPLO\ &RQWH[W $ FKDSWHU LQ 5REHUW : .OHHUUHLHU HGf $JLQJ DQG /HLVXUH 1HZ
PAGE 149

9LOHQVN\ +DUROG / R /LIH&\FOH :RUN 6LWXDWLRQV DQG 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ )RUPDO $VVRFLDWLRQV $ FKDSWHU LQ &ODUN 7LEEHWWV DQG :LOPD 'RQDKXH HGVf 6RFLDO DQG 3V\FKRORJLFDO $VSHFWV RI $JLQJ +HZ
PAGE 150

%,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ 3DXO 6Q\GHU ZDV ERUQ RQ $SULO LQ *LUDUGYLOOH 3HQQV\On YDQLD DQG ZDV JUDGXDWHG IURP WKH 3R/WVYLOOH 3HQQV\ YDQLD +LJK 6FKRRO RQ -XQH 2Q -XQH K QOLVWHG LQ WLQH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV $LU )RUFH nKHUH KH VHUYHG IRU IRXU \HDUV +H EHJDQ FROOHJH XQGHU WKH .RUHDQ %LOO LQ WKH )DOO RI $V DQ XQGHUJUDGXDWH KH DWWHQGHG 0LVVLVVLSSL &ROOHJH &DUQHJLH 7HFK DQG )ORULGD 6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ FKDQJLQJ KLV ILHOG RI PDMRU VWXG\ LQ WKH SURFHVV IURP HQJLQHHULQJ WR JHRORJ\ WR VRFLDO VFLHQFH +H UHFHLYHG WKH %DFKHORU RI 6FLHQFH GHJUHH IURP )ORULGD 6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ LQ DQG WKH 0DVWHU RI 6FLHQFH GHJUHH LQ VRFLDO VFLHQFH IURP WKH VDPH XQLYHUVLW\ LQ -XQH +H WRRN VRPH FRXUVH ZRUN WRZDUG KLV PDVWHUnV DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 0L DPL 'XULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI KLV HDUOLHU HGXFDWLRQDO WUDLQLQJ KH ZRUNHG SDUW WLPH RU LQWHUUXSWLQJ WKH HGXFDWLRQDO SURFHVV IRU HFRQRPLF UHDVRQV IXOO WLPH DW D QXPEHU RI MREV ZKLFK LQFOXGHG H[SHULHQFH DVfD SLQVHWWHU L U D ERZOLQJ DOOH\ WHOHSKRQH OLQHPDQ HPSOR\HH RQ WKH 0$6$ URFNHW WHVW UDQJH FDE GULYHU SRVWDO FOHUN DQG FDUULHU WRSRJUDSKLF VXUYH\RU VRFLDO FDVH ZRUNHU HPSOR\HH RI WKH 8 6 +RXVLQJ DQG 8UEDQ 'HYHORSPHQW 'HSDUWn PHQW DQG HPSOR\HH RI WKH )HGHUDO %XUHDX RI 3ULVRQV 7KLV GLYHUVLW\ RI RFFXSDWLRQDO H[SHULHQFH KDV FRQWULEXWHG WR WKH UDQJH DQG GLUHFWLRQ RI KLV LQWHUHVWV LQ VRFLRORJ\ +H EHJDQ KLV VWXG\ WRZDUG WKH GRFWRUDWH DW )ORULGD 6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ m f} } 7 LQ WKH DLG RI D WHDFKLQJ DVV L V WDQWVKLS FRQWLQXHG KLV GRFWRUDO ZRUN DW

PAGE 151

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t 0 8QLYHUVLW\ 7DOODKDVVHH )ORULGD DQG KH KDV EHHQ FRQWUDFWHG HIIHFWLYH $XJXVW E\ WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 0DU\ODQG WR WHDFK WKHLU VRFLRORJ\ H[WHQVLRQ FRXUVHV LQ WKH )DU )DVW

PAGE 152

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r -RVHSK r 6 9DQGLYH U 3URIHVVRU RI 6RFLRORJ\ FHUWLI\ WKDW KRYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ $VVLVWDQW 3URIHVVRU RI 6RFLRORJ\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI

PAGE 153

L FHUWLI\ WKDW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI fDV 5 $QGHUVRQ URIHVVRU RI *HRJUDSK\ 7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ ZDV VXEPLWWHG WR WKH 'HSDUWPHQW FI 6RFLRORJ\ LQ WKH &ROOHJH RI $UWV DQG 6FLHQFHV DQG WR WKH *UDGXDWH &RXQFLO DQG ZDV DFFHSWHG DV SDUWLDO IXOILOOPHQW RI WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KL RVRSK\ $XJXVW 'HDQ HQHHV 'HDQ *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO

PAGE 154

81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$