Citation
Effects of textured walking surfaces on walking behavior in visuallly restricted persons

Material Information

Title:
Effects of textured walking surfaces on walking behavior in visuallly restricted persons
Creator:
Kupfer, Jeffrey H., 1958-
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
xii, 147 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Average speed ( jstor )
Canes ( jstor )
Experimentation ( jstor )
Mental stimulation ( jstor )
Shorelines ( jstor )
Speed ( jstor )
Trails ( jstor )
Turnaround time ( jstor )
Visually impaired persons ( jstor )
Walking ( jstor )
Dissertations, Academic -- Psychology -- UF
People with visual disabilities ( lcsh )
Psychology thesis Ph. D
Walking ( lcsh )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1993
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 136-141).
General Note:
Typescript.
General Note:
Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Jeffrey H. Kupfer.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
Copyright [name of dissertation author]. Permission granted to the University of Florida to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
Resource Identifier:
001883940 ( ALEPH )
29507213 ( OCLC )
AJV9074 ( NOTIS )

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:


Full Text










EFFECTS OF TEXTURED WALKING SURFACES
ON WALKING BEHAVIOR IN
VISUALLY RESTRICTED PERSONS


JEFFREY


KUPFER


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE S
THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY


SCHOOL

FOR


OF

THE


UNIVERSITY


OF FLORIDA


1993




















Copyright


Jeffrey


1993


Kupfer










----I


my mother,
complete m:


dedicate


Claire


this


dissertation


Kupfer.


never


to the


loving


doubted


memory


that


would


dissertation.














ACKNOWLEDGMENTS


express


sincere


gratitude


the


distinguished


members


committee,


Prof


essor


Marc


Branch,


Professor


Brian


Iwata,


Prof


essor


Merle


Meyer,


Profe


ssor


Henry


Pennypacker,


Prof


essor


William


Wolking,


their


constructive


comments


during


the


development


and


writing


this


sser


station,


expertise


and


analysis


permitting

f behavior.


me to draw


am also


from


their


debt


Prof


essor


Vivian


Correa


sharing


her


comments


with


me and


with


the


members


committee


during


defense


this


dissertation.


will


forever


grateful


to Professor


Malagodi

learned


Through


radical


studies


behaviorism


with


as a


Profe


"world


ssor

view.


Malagodi


I cannot


overemphasize


impact


this


view


had,


and


continues


have,


on my


vocation.


was


experiment

psychology


fortunate

1 analysis

department


pursue


behavior


graduate


(EAB)


University


studies


program


of Florida.


was


right


place


right


time


with


the


right


people


and


want


thank


graduate


students


, past


and


present,


in the


EAB


program.


am grateful


to Chris


Hughes


ass


isting


me with


graphs


from


the


res


-S~~ a -









years.


During


studies


have


had


contact


with


radical


behaviorists


through


Association


Behavior


Analysis


and


sewhere.


Needl


ess


say,


verbal


behavior


has


been


shaped


many;


however,


results


specific


shaping


are


reflected


sh to


directly


acknowledge


pages


specific


thi


individuals


sertation


Robert


and


Babcock,


John


Cerella,


Carl


Cheney,


Robert


Epst


ein,


Robert


Putnam,


Skinner,


Ernest


Vargas


, and


Julie


Vargas.


I have


also


drawn


from


expert


individuals


within


field


orientation


and


mobility


res


earch


and


training


and


grat


eful


to Donna


DiCorpo-Dawley,


Timothy


Traut


-Savino,


and


Prof


essor


John


Templer.


am grate


Mass


achu


setts


Commi


ssion


the


Blind,

Shore


Quincy

Mental


Park

Health


and


Recreation


Center


Department,


providing


and


laboratory


South

y space


conduct


research.


personal


growth


flouri


shed


since


the


inception


and


development


Bipedal


Guidance


System,


and


involvement


with


Gla


Bead Game.


am especially


grateful


to Ronald


Finally,


years


colleague


and


expr


support

loving


Allen


ess


and


wife,


and


Julie


deepest


E.-Allen.


appreciation


encouragement,


Anne


and


. Kupfer,


her


family


thoughtful


emotional


and


intellectual


support


in everything


Both


Anne


and


express


our


love


newest


generation


radical















TABLE OF CONTENTS


pagQ


ACKNOWLEDGMENT................ ......**.************** 1v

LIST OF TABLES.................***...*********. ****** vii

LIST OF FIGURES..................****......** ***-***** ix

ABSTRACT...........................*..**...**************.. xi

INTRODUCTION........................** .*****- *******-- 1


Motor Skills, Vision and Walking................... 2
Movement Through the Environment, Visual Loss
and Walking.....................-************- *-. 6
Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Walking... 13
Operant Behavior and Walking................... *.. 17

EXPERIMENT ONE

Introduction......................***** -**-******..... 28

Method....................... ......-*****.. ...-.-. 30

Subjects.. .... .. .- .* 30
Apparatus.............. .. ..****-**********- 31
Procedure............... .... .....e.......*-* 39

Results.................**. ***..************--***** 45

Discussion.....................******-************* 65

EXPERIMENT TWO

Introduction..................................----- 79

Method.............. ..................... .....----- 82

Subjects................. ..................- 82
"A nn ^ v* rr +* rr n R' _











Discussion.......................-.-***************

GENERAL DISCUSSION....................................

Consequences of Walking.....................*..-
Contingencies of Reinforcement and Walking......

REFERENCES..............................--.-.---.....-

APPENDIX............................... .. ..- -- *

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH............................---. ...


X)a9e















LIST


OF TABLES


Table


Summary of Experimental
order) for Subjects 1,
the Number of Trials
Condition.............


Summary
Times
and 3


Conditions (in
2, and 3 with
Under Each


of Mean Walking Speeds and Mean
Per Turnaround for Subjects 1, 2,
Under Each Experimental Condition....


Summar
orde
Mean
Per
Each


y of Exper
r) for Sub
Number of
Trial, and
Condition


mental Conditions (in
jects 2, 4, and 5 with the
Side-To-Side Arm Movements
the Number of Trials Under
... e ......ee..... *


Summary
Times
and 5


of Mean Walking Speeds and Mean
Per Turnaround for Subjects 2, 4,
Under Each Experimental Condition....


(11()1(((()((()()))(~


Pace















LIST


OF FIGURES


Figure


Page


Vertical
Panel.


Cross-Section


View


of a Detection


Path Layout and Placement of Detection
Panels, Time Meters, Response Counters,
Electromechanical Equipment...........


and


Horizonal Cross-Se
and Right Panel
mental Condition


Summary Figure
Panel Length
Time on Each
Pathway for
in Experimen


tion
series


of the
Walked
Panel S
subject
1.....


of the
Under


Number of
Per Minute
series, and
1 Under All


Left, Center,
all Experi-


One-Meter
, Mean
Time Off
Conditions


Summary Fi
Panel Le
Time on
Pathway
in Exper

Summary Fi
Panel Le
Time on
Pathway
in Exper


gures
ngths
Each
for S
iment


gure
ngth
Each
for
imen


the
Iked
el S
ect


of th
Walke
anel
objectt
1....


Number of
Per Minute
ries, and
Under All


Number of
Per Minute
ries, and
Under All


One-Meter
, Mean
Time Off
Conditions


One-Meter
, Mean
Time Off
Conditions


Summary Figures
Panel Lengths
Time on Each
Pathway for S
in Experiment


of
Wal
ane
bje
2..


the
ked
1 S
ct


Number of
Per Minute
Series, and
Under All


One-Meter
, Mean
Time Off
Conditions


Summary Figures


of the
ra, 1 1,hAr


Number of
fat- L?4 n iiCa


One-Meter
U a n









Page


Summary Figures
Panel Lengths
Time on Each
Pathway for S
in Experiment


of
Wal
ane
bje
2..


the Number of One-Meter
ked Per Minute, Mean
1 Series, and Time Off
ct 5 Under All Conditions









Abstract
the Ui


Dissertation


diversity


Requirements


EFFECTS


Presented


Florida
Degree


OF TEXTURED


ON WALKING


VISUALLY


to the


Partial
Doctor c


WALKING


Graduate


School


Fulfillment
E Philosophy


SURFACES


BEHAVIOR


RESTRICTED


PERSONS


Jeffrey

May,


Chairperson:


Major


Department


Kupfer


1993


F. Malagodi
: Psychology


These


experiments


simultaneously


examine


two


character


stics


of walking


behavior


visually


res


tricted


individual


directional


continuity,


measured


deviations


from


straight-


line


walking;


and


impeded


walking,


measured


decr


eases


in walking


speed.


Experiment


, three


blindfolded


subjects


with


prescriptive


long


canes


were


exposed


to four


walking


surface.


Two


four


walking


surfaces


were


comprised


rubber


textures


mm or 2


mm in height.


The


other


two


surface


conditions


were control

900-shoreline


procedures

or a smoot]


consisting

h surface


either


without


a continuous


landmarks


structures


Both


mm and


mm textured


surfaces


and


the


shoreline


produced


deviations


from


straight


-line


walking,


whereas


a smooth


surface


produced


greater


deviations


from


straight


-line


walking.


The


-shoreline


ra 1 on rnnA nn


I- nrndnr~cs


90-


~irl


mmlC avC rr r


IdllrC~FI


an~ C~n 1


El


* f |


I


nn









textured-surface


condition,


decreases


in walking


speed


subjects


were


a function


cane


method


employed.


Experiment


examined


interaction


between


cane


method


and


walking


behavior


on the


mmu-


and


2 mm-textured


surfaces.


either:


Three


hold


blindfolded


cane


subjects


in front


were


the


instructed


midsection


their


body


and


move


cane


forward


while


walking


forward


cane


trail


: or


drag


cane


in an arc


motion


front


their


body


while


walking


forward


(touch


-drag).


For


subjects


textured


surf


aces


under


experimental


conditions


produced


straight


-line


walking,


and


walking


speeds


were


lowest


under


mm-texture


touch-drag)


conditions.


The


results


from


both


experiments


suggest:


mm-


and


mm-textured


surfaces


placed


in open


areas


can


be used


as a structure


V'S


ually


impaired


individuals


maintenance


straight-line


walking;


phy


sical


dimensions


textured


surfaces


may


impede


walking


and


cons


equently,


decrease


walking


speed,


depending


on the


cane


method


effects


employed;


and


textured


experiments


surfaces


on walking


designed


to examine


performances


should


employ


measures


walking


speed


straight


-line


walking.


Conceptualizations


of walking


behavior


are


discussed.















INTRODUCTION


Moving


safely i

survival


through


s an important


organisms.


environment


skill


Walking


efficiently


development


is one


form


and


and

locomotor


movement


or travel


which


human


beings


access


or avoid


particular


objects,


events


or areas


in the


environment.


These


locomotor


movements


are


an important


part


both


commonplace


and


complex


activities


such


vacuuming


rugs,


mowing


yards,


carrying


packages


to and


from


car


to the h

meeting,


within


Louse,


marching


rushing


in parades,


morning


crosswalks,


classes,


carrying


sneaking


crossing


glasses


water


a dull

street


filled


to the


top,


preparing


to steal


second


base,


dancing


waltz,

Common

behavior


speeds,


or strolling


to each


casually


these


walking,


with


tha


different


before


diverse

t is, w


gaits


taking


activities


walking


in a movie.


the


at different


postures


, under


different


sets


circumstances,


and


controlled


different


consequences


that


are


arranged


environment


in which


we live.


The


variables


that


control


walking


are


broad-ranged


and


research


on these


variables











portions


body,


to a "molar


-level


analysis


" of


entire


organism


walking


within


simple


and


complex


environments


At both


level


analy


sion


plays


crucial


in the


acquisition


and


maintenance


walking,


and


there


is a substantial


amount


research


devoted


analyst


effects


sion


and


visual


oss


on walking.


The


following


review


will


focus


on some


the


methodological


approaches


to examining


walking


at both


levels


analy


and,


particular,


vision


the


effect


visual


oss


walking


will


be described.


Motor


Skills


, Vi


sion


Walking


The


motor


skill


required


walking


have


been


described


terms


milestones


in child


development


which


the


presence


or ab


sence


particular


reflexes


during


various


stages


development


appear


to be


critical


upright


motor


functioning.


For


example,


the


asymmetric


tonic


neck


reflex


is seen


in newborns


until


four


months


Thi


reflex


accounts


an infant


ability


move


or her


own


head,


but


there


is an


inability


an infant


thi


move


or her


head


and


arms


independently


of each


other


age


four


month


, symmetric


tonic


neck


refl


emerges


and


body











reflex


patterns


order


to play


a role


as the


key


structure


in building


erect


posture.


A normal


walking


gait


demands


just


normal


neck


reflex


activity


but


also


the


development


righting


reactions


, balance,


protective


reactions,


rotation,


normal


muscle


tone.


Without

refine


these

skills


skills,


a child


walking,


is unable


climbing,


and


to develop

running.


and

The


labyrinthine


or vestibular


righting


reaction


allows


the


head


remain


in upright


position


when


the


pelvis


moved,


whereas


neck


righting


reaction


brings


lower


parts


body


into


line


with


upright


head.


Optic


righting


reflexes


are


responsible


orientation


head


and


that


orientation


controlled


vision.


Another


important


motor


skill


that


critical


development


walking


balance,


ability


maintain


or assume


body


position


or posture


against


force


gravity.


Chaney


and


Kephart


(1968


suggest


that


posture


is the


basic


pattern


from


which


other


movement


patterns


develop,


and


center


gravity


one'


sture


is the


point


from


which


direction,


space


orientation,


movement


must


originate.


According


the


authors,


only


when


line,


direction,


and


force


gravity


are


established


can


a child


proceed


to the











aligned


to the


body


with


conformity


to the


supporting


base.


The


body,


in proper


alignment


with


head,


designed


to react


to change


and


restore


disturbed


equilibrium


order


to maintain


posture


balance.


ture,


therefore,


results


from


interacting


motions


the


head,


torso,


and


limbs


to maintain


balance,


orientation


to gravity,


and


adjustment


to acceleration.


turn,


these


interacting


motions


are


affected


the

that


vestibular,


visual,


positioning


tactual,


and


and


dynamic


kinesthetic


stabilization


stems


the


body


during


walking.


The


role


vision


critical


to the


learning


and


performance


most


motor


skills,


especially


walking.


Visual


training


an ancillary


part


many


motor


education


programs


because


children


are


involved


visually


in the t

Jennett,


.raining


Morri


activities

s, 1970).


(Cratty,


Some


Ikida,


researchers


Martin,

have


suggested


that


four


sources


sensory


information


that


can


serve


preserve


postural


stability


(i.e.,


vision,


vestibular


stimulation,


proprioception,


and


touch),


visual


system


processes


exact


information


about


space


more


efficiently


than


other


sensory


modalities


(Howard


Templeton,


1966).











Gesell,


Ilg,


and


Bullis


(1949)


describe


three


functional


parts


sion


fixation


that


part


sion


which


see


and


holds


an image;


focus


enables


the


viewer


to discriminate


and


define


an image;


and


fusion


unifies


and


interprets


the


image


on the


cortical


level.


These


observations


have


the


development


norms


four


weeks


and


visual


nine


maturity


year


levels


on the


children


basi


from


-hand


coordination,


postural


orientation,


fixation,


and


retinal


response.


Somn

between


res


walking


earchers


have


behavior


described


and


sual


the

loss


relationship


reference


"environmental


input.


Miller


1967


example,


suggests


that


oss


sion


gait


mechanically


cause


Oss


sensory


data


necessary


timing


steps


, impoverished


balance,


deficiency


protective


reflexes.


Out


-toeing,


walking


with


the


toes


oriented


outward,


is a commonly


observed


gait


pattern


visually


impaired


individuals


and


may


develop


as a source


increased


tactual


input.


A "shuffle


gait"


may


develop


when


the


feet


are


used as feelers,


particularly


during


indoor

placed


walking

along h


in which


always,


"runners

or during


"guide


outdoor


strips"


walking


are

which











the


base


one'


support;


however,


out-toeing


excessive,


walking


speed


may


impeded


(Aust,


1980


A wide-based


impaired


gait


individual


is commonly


as a way


observed


increase


usually


stability


during


walking.


Acc


ording


to Aust


(1980


both


the


wide-


based


gait


and


shuffle


gait


result


slow


walking


speed


but


thi


gait


may


irable


usually


impaired


individuals


because


who


are


insuffi


reluctant


eient


or fearful


orientation


and


stepping


mobility


techniques


Similarly,


a shortened,


guarded


stride


may


seen


in a visually


impaired


individual


who


fearful


walking


into


objects


Typically,


as one'


speed


incr


eases


, the


tendency


veer


decreases


whereas


a shortened


stride,


which


tends


to decrease


walking


speed,


may


serve


increase


vee


ring


Aust,


1980).


MnvPment


TPhrnahh


the


Environment.


a1 a .- LV L w -- -~ -- -I -1 11- 11 -- -- -- -- -~ -


sual


Loss


and


Walking


An important


component


in the


rehabilitation


visually


impaired


persons


is the


development


efficient


and


safe


walking.


The


motor


skill


described


above


are


important


smooth


and


coordinated


execution


walking;


however,


is the


entire


body


that


must


move


success


fully


through


simple


and


complex


environments.


Therefore,


from


a mobility


rehabilitation


standpoint,


the











kitchen,


a front


yard,


and


a residential


street,


as well


as a supermarket,


a hotel


lobby,


a crowded


sidewalk


mall,


and


an airport


terminal.


This


level


analysis


particularly


important


mobility


rehabilitation


visually


impaired


persons


because


mobility


instructors


must


provide


these


individuals


with


a means


to get


around


their


environment.


Characteristics


of walking


behavior


can


described


with


respect


to both


efficient


safe


walking


(Armstrong,


1972).


Directional


continuity,


example,


describes


maintenance


straight-line


walking


prespecified


distances


and


efficient


walking


inferred


from


this


measure


(Brabyn


Strelow,


1977


Impeded


walking


describes


decreases


in forward


movement


and


safe


walking


inferred


absence


abrupt


decreases


forward


movement


or walking


speed,


such


as when


visually


impaired


person


stumbles


or catches


the


tip


or her


cane


(Brabyn


Strelow,


1977).


Accordingly,


an adequate


measure


directional


continuity


must


sensitive


deviations


veerin

from


(i.e.,


a fixed


number


central


point


or the

or the


duration

distance


lateral


movement


(Armstrong,


1972;


Brabyn


Strelow,


1977;


Dodd


Carter,


Howarth,


1983;


Howarth,


Heyes,











common


way


in which


mobility


instructors


train


visually


impaired


persons


the


use


physical


structures


within


or landmarks


an environment


as aids


(Allen,


orienting


Griffith,


Shaw


walking

, 1977;


Armstrong,


1972;


Blasch


and


Hiatt,


1983;


Braf,


1974;


Elias

1980;


, 1974;

1983;


Herms,

Templer


Elias,


Zimring,


lobbins,

1981;


1974;

Tooze,


Templer,

1981;


Wardell,


1977).


physical


structure


is referred


to by


mobility


instructors


as a shoreline.


A shoreline


line


between


or a contrast


a sidewalk


between


grass


surfaces,


strip.


such


A visual


as that

y impaired


individual


can


use


a shoreline


body


alignment


and


maintenance


straight-line


walking.


Individuals


using


a prescriptive


long


cane


walking


can


maintain


straight


-line


walking


over


extended


distances


placing


and


keeping


the


cane


tip


junction


where


the


sidewalk


meets


the


grass


strip,


or by


occasionally


touching


shoreline


with


the


cane


tip


using


a sweeping


or dragging


arc


motion.


Over


the


years


during


which


this


type


of mobility


training

reported


has p

their


proceeded,


mobility


observations


specialists


regarding


have


effectiveness


of shorelines


in controlling


walking.


Mobility











provide


optimal


conditions


straight-line


walking,


discontinuous


shorelines


are


less


than


optimal


(Blasch


Hiatt,


1983),


environments


without


shorelines


(i.e.,


open


space


areas


often


result


disoriented


walking


(Aiello


Steinfeld,


1979;


Allen,


Griffith,


& Shaw,


1977;


Braf,


1974;


Foulke,


1979).


Unfortunately,


most


shorelines


are


constructed


on the


basis


architectural


and


landscaping


visually


aesthetics


impaired


persons,


rather


and


than


thus,


functional


shorelines


use


are


often


discontinuous


complex.


Much


architectural


and


mobility


research


examined


effects


variation


walking


surfaces


and


shorelines


on locomotion


in complex


environments


(Braf,


1974;


Elias,


1974;


Herms


et al.,


1974;


Templer,


1980).


Several


studies


have


examined


walking


with


respect


to directional


continuity


and


impeded


walking.


one


study,


a 100-foot


long


texture


strip


was


added


community


sidewalk


serve


as a continuous


shoreline


(Templer,


1980


The


textured


strip


was


a 12-inch


wide


strip


thick,


resilient


paint,


similar


that


used


surface


outdoor


tennis


courts.


Visually


impaired


subjects


were


recruited


serve


in the


study.


However,


no information


was


provided


regarding


degree











continue


walking


an additional


feet,


with


the


latter


stance


serving


as a control


condition


to evaluate


the


effects


the


textured


strip


on mobility.


The


subjects


were


then


instructed


to turn


and


retrace


their


steps


repeating


first


control


condition


then


test


segment


course.


Test


sessions


were


recorded


using


time


lapse


photography


to record


elapsed


walking


time


and


to determine


number


of walking


deviations


subjects.


All


subjects


followed


textured


strip


and


maintained


street


stands,


a safe


obstacles


benches,


etc.


direct


i.e.,

which


course


telephone


were


without


poles,


located


encountering


newspaper

various


points


test


however,


area.


one


Under


subject


wandere


control

d from


condition,

a projected


direct


course


and


had


to change


direction


after


encountering


street


obstacles.


Although


author


provides


a summary


results


from


this


study


suggesting


safe


that


walking,


there


textured


are


strip


produced


no quantifiable


data


efficient

provided


and

for


within-subject


comparisons


between


test


and


control


conditions.


Dodds,


Carter


and


Howarth


1983


examined


the


reliability


three


observers


viewing


a video


tape











continuously


tracking


subject'


pavement


position


from


video


recordings.


information


supplied


observers


was


recorded


on a number


electronic


timers


means


allowed


walking


of a five

to each pa


one


-channel


vement


zone,


keyboard,


zone.


example,


one


channel


subject


observer


being


was


depressed


the


that


zone.


When


subject


moved


into


another


zone,


observer


depressed


a different


key


and


held


down


until


subject


moved


that


zone.


These


data


were


used


to calculate


proportion


time


spent


subject


in each


zone


in relation


to the


total


time


taken


to complete


each


sec


tion


a route.


Inter


-observer


correlations


the


two


viewings


suggested


observers


can


make


consistent


and


replicable


judgments


about


pavement


position


subject.


Unfortunately,


study


provides


no information


regarding


degree


visual


impairment


subject,


means


subject


recruitment,


dimensions


characteristics


pavement,


testing


area


recording


devices,


or performance


blind


subject.


Some


research


safe


walking


visually


impaired


individual


extent


to which


been


directed


a surface


towards


material


examining


used


the


a shoreline











evaluated


on the


basis


safety


features


such


as walking


resistance,


slip-resistance


trip


hazards


(Templer,


1980;


1983


Each


these


characteristics


describes


how


walking


can


impeded


a particular


shoreline


material.


Impeded


walking


may


result


from


irregularities


or nonuniformity


surface


design,


different


heights


within


a pattern


surface


material


or heights


between


material


joint


width


or depth,


and


so on.


Results


from


research


on characteristics


surface


materials


suggest


that


variations


in surface


heights


as small


as one-half


inch


can


impede


forward


motion


visually


physically)


impaired


persons


(Architectural


and


Transportation


Barriers


Compliance


Board,


1984;


Templer,


1980,


1983).


summarize,


conceptualizing


the


characteristics


walking,


there


are


two


levels


analysis


that


are


most


often


considered:


coordination


movements


parts


or portions


body;


and


the


entire


organism moving


through


environment.


At both


levels


analysis,


visual


system


critical


acqui


sition


and


maintenance


walking;


however,


other


types


stimuli


exert


control


over


walking


such


auditory,


tactile


and


proprioceptive.


The


role


these










Methodoloqical


Issues


in the


Analysis


Walking


There


are,


at least,


two


methodological


issues


that


have


hindered


both


progress


in an experimental


analysis


walking


behavior


both


level


analy


S'S


and


the


development


an effective


technology.


The


first


issue


apparent


absence


standard


methods


measuring


walking


performances


and


lack


standardized


experimental


preparations


used


researchers


Mobility


researchers


and


mobility


trainers


frequently


agree


on the


complexity


walking,


and


identify


thi


fact


as a reason


conspicuous


absence


standard


, obj


ective


measures


walking


behaviors


(Foulke,


1970;


Strelow,


Brabyn,


Clark,


1976).


response


these


measurement


difficulties


one


res


earcher


proclaimed


that


the measurement


mobility


in a scientific


sense


was


viable


and,


instead,


has utilized


subjective


rating


scales


evaluate


mobility


performances


Kay,


1974;


1981).


The


impact


lack


standardized


measures


walking


on mobility


rehabilitation


technology


is reflected


the


following


passage


that


appears


in the


national


plan


report


Panel


on Visual


Impairment


and


Rehabilitation


(1983):











appears


for developing
quantitatively


skill


in both


individuals


would


to be


standard


considerable


ting


or qualitatively


partially


The


facilitate


function


sighted


development


and


with


encourage


other


potential


procedures
grading th


and
such


nons


i


ese
ghted


methods


correlations


senses


and


skills


p.7) .


The


passage


above


suggests


that


emergence


standard


experimental


approach


and


standard


measures


would


both


bene

level


ficial


to advancing


described


in the


an analysis


previous


walking


section.


The


second


methodological


issue


that


seems


to have


hindered


emergence


an effe


ctive


analy


walking,


as well


as hindered


the


development


standard


measures


of walking,


is related


to conceptualizations


about


behavior


in general.


It i


important


to point


that


these


two


issues


are


mutually


exclu


sive.


The


manner


which


rese


arch


questions


about


walking


are


raised


and


specific


experimental


approach


utilized


researchers


manner


are


in whi


some


influ


enced,


ch behavior


rese


arch


to a large


is conce


on motor


degree,


ptualized.


skill


involved


For


the

example,


walking


been


criti


cized


because


many


important


environmental


variable


that


contribute


acquisition


nnnttrnl pl


,


motor


di retl v.


skills


Hart


involved


(1980


walking


suaaests


are


that


there


I


Ll


|











cognitive


functioning


are


three


primary


types:


correlative


studies


which


comparisons


are


made


between


mental,


academic,


experimental


perceptual,


studies


which


motor


programs


scores;


of perceptual


motor


education


are


evaluated


extent


to which


they


change


other


attributes;


studies


development


of perceptual-motor


capacities


infants.


Hart


1980


criticized


findings


from


some


this


research


on the


basis


"confusing


methodological


approaches


and


assumptions


too


short


training


periods,


lack


controls


numbers


subjects,


independent


undifferentiated


variables,


samples,


small


inadequate


statistical te

interpretation


"However


chniques,


and


faulty


inadequate


over-generali


research


reporting


zation


findings,


and


over-


findings.


" states


" (p.


Hart,


"the


theories


are


being


used


across


the


country


as the


basis


various


training


curricula.


" (p.


Much


mobility


visually


research


describes


impaired


literature


conceptualizations


individuals


in orientation


walking


primarily


and


behavior


terms


cognitions


or schema


formed


formed


and


terms


information


processing.


theory,


example,


describes


various


cognitive


features


that


are


required











skills


the
must


described


speed


could


grace


be a fundamental


demonstrated


a sighted p
supposition.


person.


with


This


To execute


a mobility


spatial


to th
the f
This
blind
the d


e t
orm


task,


senses


ask


and


that


becomes
persons
esign of


necessary
behavior


must
the


such


input


in


stimulate
sensory i
a percept


a prerequisite


is not


a specific


to have


from


which


a means


formation
a percept


nputs


can


the


related


must


formed.


to mobility


merely
device.
for ob


a general


the
It


outcome


was


only


,serving


conclusion


could


deduced.


aiding


Any


mobility


requirement.


device
should m
e actual


which
eet t
form


is to be used


his
of


basic


sensory


input


and


important,
quickly le
with other


the


initial


provided


!arned


and


response


that
can


percepts--or


to it


percept


used


spatial


are


formed


in conjunction


inputs


from


other


sense


S


(Kay,


1974,


pp.33-35).


Other


theories


mobility


to account


researchers


efficient


have


and


proposed


safe


similar


walking


behavior


visually


impaired


individuals


(e.g.,


Foulke,


1970;


Kay,


1974;


Mettler,


1987).


Apparently,


none


these

the t


theories


otal


seem


phenomenon


to be comprehen


orientation


sive

and


enough t

mobility


o explain


(Wels


Blasch,


1980),


and


one


researcher


suggested


that


the


sence


a general


theory


of mobility


hindered


the


refinement


training


methods


and


the


design


instruments


intended


to assist


mobility


(Foulke,


1970).


argued


here


that


there


is not


so much


a need


a general


theory


mobility


as there


a need


1 nt rlaon ra ta


ccl a 'tu1


C", nnr a 1


vynri mmnnt 1


mst hndrls


anrd


f |I


*










advantages


in terms


methodology,


theory,


and


practice.


The


remainder


s section


will


describe


some


these


advantages.


Operant


Behavior


and


Walking


In order


to evaluate


effectiveness


orientation


and


mobility


rehabilitation


usually


impaired


individual


or to determine


effectiveness


any


sensory


aid


or environmental


design


to enhance


walking


neces


behavior


sary


to specify


visually


impaired


relevant


individuals


features


, it


walking


behavior


in the


mos


preci


detailed


terms


possible


This


strategy


is similar


methodological


strategy


used


analy


SIS


operant


behavior


in which


specific


behavior


is recorded


automatically


controlled


environment,


relatively


free


problems


observer


bias


or test


validity.


The


advantages


the


direct


measurement


of walking,


like


operant


behavior,


depend


upon


the


reliability


recording


system,


adequacy


the


sample


duration


behavior,


and


eraction


between


the


recording


system


the


behavior


being


sampled


(Linds


ley,


1964;


Skinner,


1938).


One


good


example


the


advantages


adopting


thi


methodological


strategy


invol


ves


a series











walking

toward


performances

an designated


six


target


subjects


under


walking


three


straight


different


conditions:


sighted


walking;


walking


with


degraded


vis


ion,


which


experimental


room


was


darkened,


a light


was


mounted


at a height


meters


on a pole,


and


a face


mask


diffus


glass


was


worn


subj


ects


to reduced


light


perception


to a blur


extending


over


degrees


visual


field;


and


auditory


walking,


which


light


described


immediately


above


was


replaced


a metronome


(set


mounted


the s

three


ame


height.


tasks


ten


The

times


subj

and


ects

the


performed


order


each


conditions


these

were


different


each


subject.


Deviations


speed


and


path


trajectory


subjects


increased


under


the


degraded


sion


and


auditory


control,


and


average


walking


speeds


subjects


decrea


under


these


same


two


conditions.


Because


computerized


measurement


system


utili


demonstrations


above


is one


most


impre


ssive


types


direct


measurement


used


mobility


research,


brief


description


is warranted.


Essentially,


the


measuring


stem


uses


mechanical


sensors


that


register


subject


position


measuring


length


Dacron


line


connecting


subject


to each


sensor.











representation


space


within


which


subject


moves


(Strelow,


Brabyn,


Clark,


1976).


system,


however,


may


have


a drawback


regarding


the


mechanical


sensors.


The


position


a subject


determined


subject


apparatus


s distance


used


from


measures


measuring


length


points.


lines


The


joining


the


subject


take-up


two


reel


The


measuring


reels


points


are


(i.e.,


positioned


line


the


laboratory

is attached


at opposite

to another


ends

reel


a long


wall.


middle


A third


the


line


opposite


wall


and


the


acts


two


to balance


measuring


pull


drums.


subject


measuring


lines


exert


are


attached


to a circular


washer


that


turn


fastened


meter


pole.


The


pole


attached


to a leather


harness


that


is worn


on the


subject'


back.


The


three


line


tensions


are


equal


under


static


conditions


but


vary


when


the


subject


accelerates


because


the


inertia


the


drums


take-up


weights


used


to wind


the


line.


Higher


accelerations


the


subject


can


tracked


increasing


the


tensioning


weights,


cost


increasing


the


forces


acting


on the


subject.


Thus,


there


is a remote


interact


possibility


with


that


measuring


performance


subj


system


ect.


may


Therefore,











1976


Although


these


researchers


report


that


careful


calibration


mechanical


sensors


will


minimi


the


poss


ability


introducing


confounding


variables


, it


seems


clear


that


other


forms


direct


measurement


that


yield


accurate


measures


same


dependent


variable


directional


attached


continuity


directly


walking


onto


speed),


subject'


and


body


which


may


are


more


desirable


When


standard


measures


walking


speeds


are


used


mobility


subject


research

ts with


researchers


greater


can


accuracy,


describe

as well


performances

as draw


inferences


with


greater


precl


sion.


For


example,


reduction


average


walking


speeds


the


total


path


length


traversed


per


unit


time


is a measure


impeded


walking;


however,


some


reports


suggest


that


ely


interpreting


changes


in average


speed


as means


evaluate


impeded


mobility


may


leading


(Brabyn


Strelow,


1977;


Dodds


et al.,


1983


A slower


speed


walking,


example,


may


indicate


impeded


mobility,


competent


walking


likely


to be characterized


moderate


speed


and


necess


arily


maximum


which


visually


impaired


individual


capable.


With


respect


effects


various


textu


res


used


in continuous











(Brabyn


Strelow,


1977


and


under


least


optimal


shoreline


conditions


(Templer,


1980


average


walking


speed


generated


under


these


two


control


conditions


can


compared


that


under


various


textured


surface


conditions.


Although


investigation


walking


received


in operant-behavior


extensive


research


laboratories,


is possible


to describe


walking


the


language


common


to operant


theorists


and


researchers.


For


example,


describing


how


forms


walking


can


affected


environmental


consequences,


Skinner


(1953)


suggests


that:


differential


contingencies


change,


topography


of behavior


responses

modified


changes


which


with


enable


them.


us to walk


environment.


When


Even


very


upright

we walk


common


continue

on the


to be


deck


a ship


sea,


a special


contingencies


prevails


maintaining


our


orientation


gravitational


field.


The


new


differential


reinforcement


sets


"sea


legs.


the


end


voyage


old


contingencies


work


reverse


change"


96) .


major


implication


conceptualizing


analysis


walking


walking


as operant


necessarily


behavior


expands


that


range


controlling


variables


examined.


this


analysis,


the











The


implications


conceptualizing


walking


operant


behavior


are


important


at both


the


levels


analysis


described


previously.


example,


within


context


motor


skills


involved


walking,


reflexes


employing


striped


muscles


are


involved


directly


maintaining


posture.


Some


these


well-defined


responses


are


effective


enough


to be


acquired


as part


the


genetic


equipment


organism.


The


role


the


environment


in controlling


these


various


motor


skills


involved


normal


walking


received


less


discussion


is concerned


res


with


earchers.


that


part


Walking,


as operant


environment


behavior,


which


conditions


effective


action


are


more


unstable


and


where


genetic


endowment


less


probable


(Skinner,


1953).


Some


experimenters


have


noted


that


walking


movements


produce


stimulus


changes


in an infant'


environment


(i.e.,


tactile


, visual,


auditory,


kinesthetic)


that


directly


reinforce


walking,


and


have


suggested


that


instrumental


learning,


as well


as reflex


activity,


critical


development


walking


(Zelazo,


Zelazo,


Kolb,


spatial


1972


Howard


behavior


is not


Templeton


only


(1966)


conditioned


suggest


way s


that


in which


body


is constructed


and


moves


, but


also


nature











the

each


consequences

movement or


stimulus


of walking


step,


conditions


i.e.,


posture,


under


whi


or gait,


ch particular


consequences


as well


consequences


control


these


behaviors).


An operant-behavior


perspective


would


also


examine


those


environmental


consequences


that


are


imposed


on the


individual


who


walking,


and


examine


the


manner


which


sion


contributes


to successful


walking


behavior


under


such


conditions.


In most


circumstances,


individual


develops


effective


walking


behaviors


and


adjusts


the


spatial


world


because


visual


stimulation


from


various


objects


occasion


upon


which


certain


responses


lead


to particular


consequences,


such


physical


contact


with


those


objects


visual


field


can


occasion


walking,


as well


as effective


manipulatory


action


related


to other


operant


behavior.


Under


these


circumstances,


contingencies


responsible


walking


are


generated


relations


between


visual


and


tactual


stimulation


characteristic


physical


objects


(Skinner,


1953)


The


contingencies


responsible


walking,


stimulation


however,


from


change


physical


considerably


objects


when


is no longer


visual


possible.


Under


these


circumstances


nature


stimulus


control











specialists


primarily


devote


their


skills


and


services


visually


impaired


population


in an effort


establi


However,

control


sh effective


the

are


stimulus


opportunities


severely


limited


control


establ


because


over


fishing

nearly


walking.


stimulus

all


environments


in which


people


walk


are


designed


to favor


individuals


with


vision,


individuals


without


significant


visual


impairment.


The


implications


conceptualizing


walking


operant


behavior


have


been


directed


towards


three


important


areas:


methodology


and


standardized


measures


walking;


integration


research


from


two


levels


analysis;


rehabilitation


and


technology


the


field


orientation


and


mobility.


Rather


than


invoking


a new


theory


of walking,


previous


review


describes


expansion


an operant-behavior


perspective


One


and


methodology


highest


forms


to the


analysis


integration


walking.


science


occurs


when


researchers


recognize


similarities


relevant


variables


between


experiments


in one


field


and


other


experiments


in an apparently


remote


area


research


Sidman,


1960).


For


example


detection


research


(which


typically


domain


psychophysical


laboratory











is a sophisticated


analysis


and


technology


the


detection


of small


tumor


simulations


a life-


like


model


a human


breast


(Pennypacker,


1986).


Thi


dissertation,


therefore,


addresses


some


the


methodological


issues


in orientation


and


mobility


research,


and


addre


sses


the


issues


that


arise


from


conceptualizing


walking


as operant


behavior.


following


experiments


examine


the


effects


different


ground


surfaces


that


affect


walking


behavior


visually


restricted


persons.


There


are


two


reasons


conducting


experiment

mobility


on thi


researchers


particular


and


topic.


rehabilitation


First,


many


specialists


have


identified


ground su

efficient


the


rfaces

and s


need


to aid


afe


and


visually


walking,


potential


impaired


particularly


modifying


persons


in complex


environmental


settings.


According


the


national


plan


report


Panel


on Visual


Impairment


and


Rehabilitation


1983):


Enhanced
to aid o


nonsighted


guidance
of wall


color


"human


artially


per


purpo
colors


and


enhance


function


inves


engineering"
sighted, le


sons


ses


and/or


textures,


visual


and


tigated.


fl nnr-t i 1 P


and


studies


!gally


Appropriate


example
textured


and s
nonvis


special


cue


mobility;


One


tswhnresC!F


ssiblity


tn n i de


are


blind,
coding


through t
surfaces,


lighting,
s to aid


these
is to


needed
and
for


use


floor


can


should


use


individuals


special
to


.










Thus,


is reasonable


to direct


an experimental


analysis


towards


an area


research


that


appears


to be


great


demand,


and


which


may


have


important


and


immediate


applications


field


of orientation


and


mobility.


The


second


reason


examining


effects


ground s

relative


particular


surface mo

to other


area


difications


areas


research


on walking


research


appears


behavior

mobility,


to be


that,


this


most


advanced

behaviors


terms


and


standardized


standardized


measures


experimental


walking


techniques.


Indeed,


integrating


results


from


an experimental


analysis


walking


behavior


into


a general


analysis


and


theory


operant


behavior


is a critical


step


in the


directing


orientation


mobility


towards


a natural


science


walking


behaviors


, then


most


reasonable


starting


point


this


analysis


would


examine


what


might


considered


sting


"state-of-the-art"


because


many


advantages


gained


from


such


integration


would


become


more


evident


in an area


research


that


on the


threshold


becoming


experimental


analysis.


Thus,


following


dis


sertation


develops


a measurement


system


compare


walking











that


which


describes


other


forms


operant


behavior


under


stimulus


control.


Although


previous


studies


have


examined


either


straight-line


walking


or decreases


in walking


speed


as a


function


shoreline


characteristics,


the


present


experiments


examined


both


measures


straight


-line


walking


and


walking


speed


as a function


walking


surfaces.


simultaneous


comparison


critical


because


these


change


measures


do not


in walking


necessarily


surface


designed


covary.


improve


example,


straight-


line


walking


may


create


a hazard


and


result


a decrease


walking


speed.


Experiment


compared


measures


walking


generated


under


both


a continuous


shoreline


condition


and


under


no shoreline


condition


with


those


generated


under


two


different

Experiment


heights


applied


a textured


surface


procedures


material.


developed


Experiment


compare


two


emergent


cane


motions


used


the


subjects.
















EXPERIMENT


Introduction


Previous


research


on the


effects


walking-surface


conditions


a mobility


aid


usually


impaired


persons


examined


sual


walking,

frequency

(Templer,


utility


simultaneously


either


observers


measured


cane


1980)


straight-


recording


vis


or body


Other


a computer


changes


line


path


walking,


deviations


observers


contact


studi


means


in path


with


have


urement


measured


, or impeded


the


obstaci


recording

street


demonstrated


system


deviations


and


the
*


examine


changes


walking


speed;


however,


these


demonstrations


did


include


a examination


the


effects


various


walking


-surface


conditions


on these


measures


walking


(Brabyn


Strelow,


1977)


The


firs


t experiment


simultaneously


examined

forward


surface


changes


speed


directional


as a function


conditions.


Two


continuity


changes


four


and


in four


walking-


changes

walking-


surface


conditions


were


control


procedures


and


two


consi


sted


varied


textured


surfaces


first


control


condition


was











conditions


forward


generally


speeds


produce


representative


straight-line


mobility


walking


under


and


optimal


conditions


Blasch


Hiatt,


1983;


Brabyn


Strelow,


1977;


Templer,


1980


sec


ond


control


condition


was


a smooth,


open


surface


no joints


or surface


variation)


that


been


shown


to result


in poor


mobility


performance


and


greater


path


deviations


in comparison


those


performances


produced


continuous


shor


lines


(Aiello


Steinfeld,


1979;


Architectural


and


Transportation


Barriers


Compliance


Board,


1984;


Braf,


1974;


Templer


, 1980).


textured


walking


surfaces


are


useful


to maintain


straight


benefit


-line


cial


walking


to safe


visually


walking


impaired


visually


persons,


impaired


and


persons


general,


then


experiment


may


show


how


closely


walking


under


textured


walking


surfaces


approximates


walking


under


optimal


conditions,


particularly


with


respect


to the


two


dependent


measures


described


above.


Previous


research


suggests


that


textured


walking


surfaces


may


produce


straight


-line,


efficient


walking


visually


impaired


persons


However,


depending


on phys


ical


dimen


sons


(i.e.,


height,

textured


spacing

walking


between

surface


textured


may


stimuli,


impede


and


walking,


so on)


indicated


reductions


in walking


speeds


(Templer,


1980;


1983


This











compared

shoreline


to walking

or under


behavior


control


under

the


the c

smooth


control


surface.


a 90-

The


second


question


was


concerned


with


determining


whether


simultaneous


examination


of directional


continuity


and


walking


speed


these


subjects


would


reveal


orderly


changes


these


two


measures


as a function


variations


in the


walking


surface


conditions.


Method


Subi


ects


Three


subjects


volunteered


serve


in the


present


experiment


responding


to a subject


recruitment


notice


posted


Health


the


Center.


adminis


The


tration


age,


office


gender


South


height


Shore


each


Mental


subject


were


follows:


Subje


was


a 26


-year


-old


female


and


was


5'8"


(173


height;


Subject


was


a 27-year


-old


female


and


was


in height;


and


Subject


was


a 36-


year


-old


mal


and


was


5'6"


(168


height.


None


the


subjects


had


visual


deficits


or wore


corrective


lenses.


Additionally,


none


had


received


formal


training


the


area


sual


impairments,


cane


use,


or orientation


and


mobility.


In order


to eliminate


vision,


one


cm x 6.35


5'6"











constructed


of a black,


opaque,


flexible


plastic


with


circular


strips


foam


that


snug


against


each


eye


when


an elastic


subject


strap


s head.


was


tightened


Subjects


around


reported


that


back


the


the


was


comfortable


and


that


they


could


see


anything


following


this


preparation.


experimental


preparations


these


subjects


in some


way s


are


similar,


although


temporary,


those


conditions


encountered


persons


with


accidental


complete


visual


loss


(Brabyn


Strelow,


1977;


Olson,


1982;


Wel


1980).


Each


subject


also


wore


ear


plugs


order


attenuate


extraneous


sounds


that


may


contribute


orientation


or produce


results


that


may


confound


the


tactile


control

provided


produced


various


a round-tipped


surfaces.


Subjects


mm diameter),


were


aluminum


cane


fitted


(173


cm),


length


which


persons


between


approximate


5'5"


distance


(165


from


and


the


5'8"


tip


cane


touching


floor


the


top


the


handle


touching


the


subject


s breast


bone.


Subjects


wore


rubber


tennis


shoes


each


subject


wore


same


pair


shoes


the


duration


experiment.


Apparatus


Figure

constructed


shows


to record


vertical

pressure


section

exerted


of a detection


subjects


panel


as they





































FIGURE


A vertical


cross


-section


view


a detection


panel


meter


x 0.5


meter








33
h-
LJ
LJ
H
w
w
C')

C.)
r-J

(0
0:
4
w<

-J
OZO

w


aJ




r.











wU
~'a
--
W -
oU
w











utilization


maximum


amount


space


examining


walking


performances


within


limitations


dimensions

meters).


experimental


Detection


panels


room

meter


(9.75

x 0.5


meters

meter)


x 5.48

were


constructed


securing


pressure-sensitive


Tapeswitch


(under-rug)


placing


flexible


acrylic


relay


sheets


switches


over


to a smooth


runners.


tile


The


floor


relay


switches


were


connected


gauge


electrical


wire


transformers t

Detection


hat


activated


panels


were


the r

placed


running

next


time


one


meters.

another


form


three


adjacent


straight


pathways


meters


x 0.5


meter),


and


were


wired


together


forming


a series


of panels


measure


total


time


spent


on any


three


pathways


central


series


detected


pressure


exerted


subjects


walking


on the


central


series


under


the


various


surface


conditions


tested;


the


right


series


detected


pressure


central


exerted


series;


subjects


and


veering


series


right


detected


the


pressure


exerted


subjects


vee


ring


the


left


the


central


series.


Figure


shows


experimental


path


layout


and


electromechanical


equipment


placement.


The


width


the


central


Peel


series


(1974


(0.5


meters


as a width


that


was similar

would permit


that


subjects


described


to emit





















FIGURE


Path layout and placement of detection
time meters, response counters, and
electromechanical equipment.


panels,


















METERS


START SWITCH PADS


.,J


6 METERS


START SWITCH PADS


RUNNING
TIME
METERS


r


'ie~PI











male


population'


shoulder


width


plus


or approximately


cm from


center


pathway).


One


dependent


measures,


the


duration


time


spent


subjects


on each


the


panel


series,


was


recorded


directly


elapsed


time


meters


connected


to each


series


panels


subjects


stepped


on two


adjacent


series


with


one


foot


simultaneous


sly,


then

long


corresponding


as pressure


was


elapsed


applied


time


to the


meters w

flexible


ere


operated


relay


switches.


Two


sets of


cm x 58.4


cm start


switch


pads


Lafayette


Model


63515


located


at both


ends


the


pathway


were


each


wired


through


a latching


relay


a response


counter.


The


switch


pads


were


operated


pressure


exerted


subjects


stepping


three


series


pan


s after


walking


the


entire


meter


long


pathway.


The


latching


relay


circuitry


was


arranged


to allow


only


one


count


per


traversal;


latched


activation


start


relay


switch


became


pad


unlatched


on the


only


opposite


the


end


pathway.


The


response


counters


therefore,


recorded


each


complete


six


average


meters


speed


path


traversal


walked)


each


were


meter


used


panel


one


counter


to calculate


length


activation


the


walked


subjects


Walking


speed


was


defined


as the


number


one-


meter


panel


lengths


traversed


total


duration











included


in calculating


walking


speed).


The


duration


each


trial


was


controlled


a timer


that


was


operated


when


the


subjects


stepped


from


cm x 55.9


cm start


switch


pad


(Lafayette


Model


63516


located


before


panel


the


central


pathway


The


connection


between


start


switch


pad


and


the


timer


passed


through


an adaptor


switch


Lafayette


Model


63515AS


that


permitted


switch


opening


rather


than


a switch


do


sure


to activate


the


timer.


Prior


to each


session


the


recording


equipment


was


calibrated


experimenter


walking


the


length


each


series


three


times


Each


step


was


placed


approximately


the


middle


each


detection


panel


allowing


only


one


step


panel.


Each


elapsed


time


meter


was


compared


following


approximately


procedure


equal


ensure


clock


that


times


were


times


were


within


seconds


of each


other).


This


procedure


was


repeated,


one


foot


stepping


on the


center


series


simultaneously,


and


on the


center


and


right


series


simultaneously.


Following


thi


procedure,


elapsed


time


meters


were


compared,


again,


ensure


left


right


time


meters


were


approximat


equal


and


central


series


was


twice


the


amount


either


the


left


or right.


(The


term


"calibration"


is used here


only


to describe


the


procedure











reason


to expect


times


to be


exactly


same


because


there


no reason


assume


that


experimenter


walked


each


series


precisely


same


speed.


more


precise


calibration


method


would


involve


using


a moving


object


that:


weighs


an amount


sufficient


to activate


the


relay


switches


controlling


timers;


moves


at a constant


speed;


and


generate


values


contains


compare


an internal


to those


clock

from


that

the v


can D

various


e used

time


meters.


Unfortunately


the


time


Experiments


and


were


conducted,


no such


object


was


available).


Procedure


Throughout


Experiment


, smooth


tiles


were


secured


onto


each


detection


panel


left


and


right


panel


series,


and


tiles


on the


central


series


were


either


textured


or smooth


depending

exposed


on the


to four


illustrated


experimental

walking-surfac


Figure


The


condition.

e conditions


four


Subjects


which


experimental


were


are


conditions


were


follows:


Continuous


900w


shoreline


- This


condition


served
central
surface


This


as one
panels


and


two


were


lined


arrangement


shoreline
central


control


covered


on both
provided


meters


pathway.


cm from


nannl c -


T~hs


long)


conditions.


with


sides


a smooth


with


wood


a continuous


on either


The height o
rubber-surface


hai rrh't


tJ I


thi s


the
base


shoreline


90-


The


rubber
panels


side


shoreline


was


central


corresponds


.






















FIGURE


A horizonal cross-section of the
and right panel series under each
condition (not drawn to scale).


left, center,
experimental











900 SHORELINE


~I


SMOOTH


BE






c F


Imm


2mm


D


/ /


L / /


XIX


p p


/III I


: I


n


i











Smooth


control
covered


those at
yielding


surface


condition.


with


the


tached
a 1.5


same


the


-meter


- This


served


central


smooth


left
wide


as the


panels


rubber


and
smoot


second


were


surface


right panels,
h single path.


Textured


surface


- There


were


two


textured-


surface


conditions:


mm texture


central
circular


diameter,


raised


panels


were


surfaces


and


rubber


- Under


cover
mm in


spaced 9
surfaces.


this


with


height,


mm from


condition,


raised
26 mm


other


rubber
in


adjacent


mm texture


central
circular


diameter,


raised


panels


were


surfaces


and


rubber


Under
cover
mm in


spaced 7
surfaces.


this


with


height,


mm from


condition,


rais
20


other


the


rubber


im in


adjacent


For


both


textured


surfaces


, the


height


the


tile


base


(i.e.,


excluding


the


height


raised


rubber


circular


surfaces


was


which


was


same


height


as the


tile


base


left


and


right


panels.


Thus,


there


were


gaps


or height


variations


any


points


at which


the


left


and


right


panels


contacted


central


panels.


Prior


to the


start


first


session


Experiment


the


experimenter


escorted


each


blindfolded


subject


into


the


experimental


room


an area


approximately


cm from


edge


pathway


and


delivered


following


instructions:


ease


step


nArin..


up t
wel 1


xinn1 r


path
rno


and


stop


1 7 fnnn


when


I | I


you


Un',


r a n r


n rn


I











again,


turn


around.


You


will


repeat


walking


back


and


forth


five


minut


es.


Let


me ass


moving


tip


pane
cane


was


and


(i.e.,


and
the
two


placed
Now,


moving
,e tip


central
path, I
points.


oriented


nest you
walking


stop


point,


ist you
of your
between


in lifting


cane
the


me assis


the
was


panel).


want
If
or i


can


between


walking,


and


you
you


you


to find


them.


remain


wait


over
left


you


your
between


walk


tip o
placed


AS yOU
to try
should


walk
these


When


standing


esc


the


here
panel


cane
(i.e.


and


in lifting


cane
n the
back


to stay


find
off
two


your
the p


points


say
at
ort


over
right
and


within


self
ath,


and


"stop"


that
you


and
. the


central


the


here
t panel
forth o


these


the


continue


, please


stopping


back


to the


beginning
additional


esc


you


steps
to the


path.
forward


ease


or backward.


beginning


take


After


will


path,


record
begin


data,


another


res


equipment,


and


we will


trial.


between
answer
If you


you w
trial
any qu
do not


to do
Once


stions


have


so, you
a trial


until


que


may


begins
trial


stions


take


a break


I will


not


is completed.


we can


begin.


For


conditions


Experiment


, there


were


direct


consequences


arranged


subjects


either


walking


speed


or for


remaining


within


specified


area.


Experimental


trial


were


5 min


duration.


Table


shows


number


trial


under


four


experimental


conditions


and


order


exposure


each


subject.


All


subjects


were


exposed


to experimental


conditions


until


two


the


dependent


measures


absolute


time


allocated


to left,


central,


and


right


panel


series


walking


speed)


appeared












Table


Summary of
Subjects 1
condition.


the


experimental


and


with


conditions


number


order)


trials


under


each


Subject Experimental Condition # of Trials



1 90 26
2 mm 20
1 mm 10
Smooth 16
1 mm 14
2 mm 10
900 12
Smooth 13


2 90 13
Smooth 18
2 mm 10
1 mm 20
Smooth 16
1 mm 13
2 mm 11
90 13


3 Smooth 15
1 mm 20
2 mm 14
900 15
Smooth 14
1 mm 10
2 mm 13
90 10











measure


under


each


experimental


condition).


A third


dependent


measure,


amount


time


subjects


were


the


pathway


per


trial


was


calculated


subtracting


sum


times


allocated


the


left,


center,


and


right


panel


series


from


300-s


trial


duration.


Time


the


pathway


data


are


included


results;


however,


the


stability


these


data


was


a factor


in determining


changes


experimental


conditions.


fourth


dependent


measure,


turnaround


time,


these


values


time


the


pathway


were


divided


the


mean


number


turns


per


trial


to determine


the


mean


time


per


turn


under


each


condition.


Experimental


sessions


were


conducted


three


to four


days


per


week


and


were


approximately


one-hour


duration.


Thus,


subjects


were


exposed


to approximately


on whether


condition


ten


was


trials


changed


per


session,


within


the


depending


session.


When


condition


was


changed


within


session,


subjects


were


escorted


outside


experimental


room


to a chair


waiting


area.


amount


time


required


to change


surfaces


on the


central


panels


was


approximately


5 min


the


smooth


and


textured


surface,


approximately


the


900-shoreline.


Results


mmn











panels


was


highest


under


90 -shoreline


condition


and


lowest


under


smooth-surface


condition


subjects.


Replacement


smooth


-surface


central


panels


with


either


textured


surface


resulted


in a reduction


time


spent


left


and


right


panels


and


increased


time


on the


central


panels


subjects


Figures


show


when


number


900-shoreline


of one-meter


was


panel


absent.


lengths


walked


minute


trials,


and


show


summary


data


mean


walking


time


allocated


subjects


to the


left,


center,

subjects


and r

were


ight

off


panel

the p


series,


athway.


and

The


amount


arrows


in the


time

top


portions


Figures


indicate


first


data


point


the


repre


sentative


trials


used


to determine


stability


under


that


condition.


Thus,


that


data


point,


and


points


right


it correspond


summary


data


the


middle


and


bottom


portions


that


same


figure.


During


first


exposure


90-shoreline


condition,


30 meters


walking


per


speeds


minute


Subject


first


were


trials


between


and


and


walking


speeds


increased


over


remaining


trials,


reaching


meters


per


minute


during


last


trials


(Figure


top


portion).


second


In contrast,


exposure


walking


to the


speeds


horeline


Subject


condition


during


were










surface


condition,


walking


speeds


Subject


decreased


approximately


meters


minute.


Under


IIUU -"


textured-surface


condition,


walking


speeds


this


subject


increased


to levels


similar


to those


under


the


90-


shoreline.


comparison


res


ults


from


the


experimental


conditions


described


immediately


above,


walking


speeds


Subject


were


lowest


during


first


eleven


trials


under


first


exposure


to the


mm-textured-surface


condition,


averaging


condition,


25 meters


Subject


per


minute.


walked


end


approximately


this


meters


per


minute.


During


second


expo


sure


the


mm-textured-


surface


condition,


Subject


walked


meters


per


minute


first


trial,


and


walking


speeds


increased


an average


meters


per


minute


remaining


trials


under


thi


condition


With


exception


results


under


mm-


textured-


surface


condition


and


the


initial


trials


under


the


900-shoreline


condition,


there


were


no discernible


differences


walking


speeds


between


the


first


and


second


exposure


to the


different


experimental


conditions


Subject


For


Subject


, walking


times


allocated


to the


central























FIGURE


Summary


and fi
the fi
condit
shows
walked
point
repres
stabil
walking
shows
the pa
bottom


data


led
st
on,
he
per
o t


boxes
and sec
respect
number
minute
he firs
- a


native
ty. The
time on


Subje
repre
ond e
tivel
of on


mi
pa


he amount o
hway. The
portions of


the representative
portion.


from
dat
of
ddle
nels
f ti:
data
thi


Th


sent the
exposure


y.
e-m
al
a p
dat
po


data


The
ter


1 tri
points
a use
rtion
The b
the s
the
igure


shown


e open


resul
to eac
top po
panel
als.
for t
d to d
shows
ottom
subject
middle
corre
in the


boxes


ts from
h
rtion
lengths
The arro
he
determine
mean
portion
was off
and
spond to
top


ws


*


re
















-J
w
zZ

HI f


~U
?I
*a

o
I


SMOOTH


1mm


2mm


TOTAL TRIALS


C L


SMOOTH


I n
C R


90 SMOOTH


o0 i
U.


1mm


2mm


C R L C R


mm


poBloopoD
I
*


2mm


*Ui.i.


SUBJECT 1


SDT1

O v
Ow-
Zm
Ox
m "
rnv7
x O
-Dc,,
O c:
c m
rm
m


I











portion).


Under


smooth-surface


condition,


times


allocated


to the


central


panels


Subject


decreased


an average


seconds


per


trial


(first


exposure),


and


average


seconds


per


trial


(second


exposure)


and


times


allocated


to left


and


right


panels


were


approximately


seconds


per


trial.


When


mm-textured-surface


was


placed


on the


central


panels,


Subject


allocated


an average


seconds


per


trial


(first


exposure


and


an average


seconds


per


trial


(second


exposure


central


panels.


comparison


first


exposure


the


mm-textured-


surface


condition,


during


second


exposure,


Subject


allocated


less


time


on the


left


panels


(from


seconds


per


trial


to 20


seconds


trial


allocated


slightly


more


time


the


right


panels


(from


seconds


per


trial


to 21


seconds


per


trial).


Under


2 mm-textured-surface


condition,


this


subject


allocated


an average


seconds


walking


time


to the


central


panels


during


first


and


second


exposures.


Subject


decreased


average


time


allocated to the

(first exposure)


left

to 21


panels from

seconds per


seconds


trial


per


(second


trial

exposure),


and


decreased


average


time


allocated


the


right


panels


from


seconds


per


trial


(first


exposure


seconds


per


trial


(second


expos


ure).










turnaround


time


exclusively.


Subject


spent


approximately


seconds


and


seconds


pathway


during


first


and


second


exposure


900-shoreline


condition,


respectively


(Figure


- bottom


portion).


Under


the


smooth-


surface

panels


condition,


this


(approximately


subject


second


spent

s per


more

trial


time

\ and


the


these


time


values


were


more


variable


than


those


under


other


conditions.


Subject


decreased


amount


time


spent


the


pathway


under


both


exposures


to the


mm-


and


under


first


exposure


to the


mm-textured-surface


condition


(approximately


seconds


trial).


During


the


second


exposure


to the


mm-textured-surface


condition,


Subject


increased


average


amount


time


the


panels


approximately


seconds


per


trial.


This


increase


in time


off

more


the p

time


athway


is most


on either


likely


to this


pathway


than


subject

on the


spending

extreme


left


and


right


sides


because


time


allocated


to the


left


and


right


panels


lower


during


second


exposure


and


there


was


no concomitant


increase


average


time


allocation


the


central


panels.


Walking


speeds


Subject


during


first


exposure


the


90 -shoreline


condition


averaged


meters


per


minute


first


five


trials,


and


increased


an average











meters


per


minute.


Under


smooth-surface


condition,


walking

minute


speeds

during


for

the


first


subject a

exposure.


Averaged

During


meters


per


second


exposure


condition,


walking


speeds


this


subject


initially


decreased


during


the


first


trials


approximately


15 meters


per


minute;


however,


walking


speeds


gradually


increased


with


repeated


trials


under


this


condition


an average


21 meters


per


minute,


although


walking


speeds


never


reached


level


comparable


those


during


the


first


exposure


to the


smooth-


surface


condition.


Under


exposure


the


, walking


mm-textured


speeds


-surface


Subject


condition


averaged


(firs


meters


minute


first


eleven


trial


and


then


decreased


an average


meters


per


minute


last


nine


trial


When


mm-textured


-surface


condition


was


reinstated,


walking


speeds


Subject


increased


slightly


an average


meters


per


minute.


Introducing


the


mm-textured-surface


condition


(first


exposure


this


subject


resulted


in similar


walking


speeds


those


under


the


mm-textured


-surface


condition


(approximately


meters


per


minute


When


mm-textured


-surface


condition


was


reinstated,


thi


subject


showed


an abrupt


increase


in walking


speeds


similar


to that


described






















Summary data for Subject
shows the number of one-
walked per minute from a
portion shows mean walk
The bottom portion shows
the subject was off the


2. The to
meter panel
11 trials.
ng time on
the amount
pathway.


p portion
lengths
The middle
panels.
of time


FIGURE
















SMOOTH


cfiAtSR
UIP
+U'


1mm


2mm


TOTAL TRIALS


SMOOTH


1mm


F-


2mm


R


uI-,


SMOOTH

O

CPYb


1mm





Eu


2mm


SUBJECT 2


E D



0 -4
Zm
ox
rn-u
x c
-cc',


an


,~C~n


I











With


smooth


exception


-surface


condition,


walking


walking


speeds


peeds

for


under

Subject


were


higher


under


sec


exposure


to the


various


experimental


conditions


than


under


first


exposure.


For


Subject


, walking


times


allocated


to the


central


panels


averaged


sec


onds


per


trial


during


first


exposure,


and


increase


slightly


an average


seconds


per


trial


during


seco


exposure


the


shoreline


condition


mm-textured


-surface


(Figure


condition


- middle


(first


portion


exposure


Under


this


subject


allocated


approximately


seconds


per


trial


the


central


panel


and


seconds


per


trial


during


the


second


exposure


to thi


s same


condition.


These


decreases


times


allocated


to the


central


panel


were


accompanied


increases


in average


times


allocated


the


left


panels


from


seconds


to 9


seconds


and


to the


right


panels


(from


second


to 11


sec


Under


2 mm-textured


-surface


condition,


Subject


allocated


an average


seconds


per


trial


central


panel


during


first


expo


sure,


and


an average


of 200


seconds


per


trial


the


central


panels


during


the


second


exposure.


These


increases


in times


allocated


central


panel


were


accompanied


decreases


in times


allocated


the


left


panels


(from










allocated


central


panels


were


lowest


under


first


expo


sure


smooth-surface


condition


seconds


per


trial).


During


second


exposure


to the


smooth-surface


condition,


central


panel


time


allocations


this


subject


increased


an average


approximately


seconds


per


trial,

panels


whereas


decreased


average


from


times


sec


onds


allocated


seconds


the

per


left

trail,


and


average


times


allocated


to the


right


panels


decreased


from


seconds


to 3


seconds


trial.


Subject


was


pathway


greatest


amount


time


under


smooth-


surface


condition


(approximately


seconds


per


trial).


Average


walking


speeds


Subject


under


first


and


second


exposure


to the


900-shoreline


condition


were


approximately


meters


per


minute


(Figure


- top


portion).


During


the


first


expo


sure


smooth-surface


condition,


average

meters


walking


per


minute.


speeds


When


this


this


subject


condition


decreased


was


to 19


reinstated,


average


walking


speeds


this


subject


increased


approximately


meters


per


minute.


Average


walking


speeds


Subject


under


mm-textured-surface


condition


were


meters


per


minute


during


first


exposure,


and


increased


to 31 meters


per


minute


during


the


sec


exposure.


When


mm-textured-surface


condition


was























FIGURE


Summary
shows th
walked p
portion
The bott
the subj


data for
e number
er minut
shows me
om porti
ect was


Sub
of
e fr
an w
on s
off


ject 3. The top
one-meter panel
om all trials.
walking time on p
hows the amount
the pathway.


portion
lengths
The middle
anels.
of time
















SMOOTH


0


1mm


'mu

*1.FS

0
0


2mm


U
A


TOTAL TRIALS


Z 200



42


a180
21 0


SMOOTH


C L


SMOOTH


U
**I\ '
mit/*
.\*E


FP
@CP
rl


1mm


2mm


R L C R L C R


1mm


'P
0]


2mm


SUBJECT 3


'I


*0
o

m -0
OC-
Zm
0s x
rn -c
x 0
XC,
-Dc')
0 c
c m
33
m


D


I










subject


increased


to approximately


meters


per


minute.


Reinstating


this


condition


this


subject


resulted


variable,


and


generally


higher


walking


speeds


(approximately


meters


per


minutes).


For


Subject


, walking


times


allocated


to the


central


panels


were


highest


under


900-shoreline


condition,


averaging


seconds


trial


during


first


exposure


and


seconds


per


trial


during


the


second


exposure


(Figure


- middle


portion).


In contrast,


central


panel


allocation


times


seconds


Subject


per


trial),


were

and


lower

lower


under

still


first

under


exposure


second


exposure


seconds


trial


the


smooth-surface


condition.


Additionally,


mean


walking


time


on all


panels


Subject


decreased


during


second


exposure


the


smooth-surface


condition


which


indicates


that


this


subject


spent


nearly


as much


time


three


panel


series


as on


them.


These


increases


in times


the


panels


between


first


and


second


exposure


to the


smooth


-surface


condition


are


shown


exposure


Figure


to the


smooth-


(bottom


surface


portion).


condition,


During


Subject


first


was


panels


an average


seconds


trial.


When


this


condition


was


reinstated,


time


pathway


this


subject


increased


an average


seconds


per


trial


and










increased


to approximately


seconds


per


trial,


and


left


and


right


panel


time


allocations


decreased


to 21


seconds


per


trial


and


seconds


per


trial,


respectively.


Figure


(bottom


portion)


shows


an upward


trend


time


the


panels


during


first


exposure


to the


mm-textured-


surface


ranging


condition,


from


averaging


36 seconds


seconds


seconds


per


per


trial


trial.


and


During


second


exposure


this


condition,


time


allocations


central


panels


Subject


decreased


from


seconds


per


trial


seconds


per


trial,


time


allocations


the


right


panels


decreased,


on the


average,


from


seconds


per


trial


to 32


seconds


per


trial,


and


time


allocations


the


left


panels


increased,


on the


average,


from


seconds


per


trial


to 28


seconds


per


trial.


Additionally,


the


time


the


panels


increased


from


an average


seconds


per


trial


to approximately


seconds


per


trial.


When


mm-textured-surface


condition


was


introduced


to Subject


, central


time


allocations


increased


to 180


seconds


per


trial


first


exposure)


and


seconds


per


trial


second


exposure).


Subject


during


second


exposure

panels d


this


ecreased


condition,


from


time


seconds


allocations


seconds


the

per


left

trial,


and


time


allocations


to the


right


panels


decreased


from











second


exposure


to the


mm-textured-surface-condition


this


subject.


Mean


walking


speeds


and


mean


times


per


turnaround


subjects


are


shown


in Table


There


were


some


instances


in which


increases


in walking


speed


were


accompanied


decreases


turnaround


time,


that


conditions


were


that


correlated


were

with


correlated

quicker tu


with


rning.


quicker

For e


walking


example,


also

walking


speeds


Subject


were


higher


(approximately


meters


per


minute


and


times


per


turnaround


were


lower


(approximately


seconds


per


turnaround)


under


9O"-


shor


eline


than


those


speeds


and


turnaround


times


under


the


smooth-surface


conditions


approximately


meters


per


minute


and


5 seconds


turnaround,


respectively).


comparison


to those


values


under


900-shoreline


conditions,


walking


speeds


this


subject


were


slightly


higher


and


turnaround


times


were


slightly


lower


under


the


mm-textured


-surface


condition,


whereas


under


nun-


textured-surface


condition


(i.e.,


last


trials


during


first


and


second


exposures),


walking


speeds


were


slightly


lower


and


times


per


turn


were


slightly


higher


Subject


Comparisons


those


data


from


the


first


and


second


exposures


to each


experimental


condition


show


a less











Table


summary or
turnaround
condition.


the
for


mean


walking


Subjects


speeds
, and


and


mean


under


times


each


per


experimental


Subject Exp. Condition Exposure Walking speed Time/turn



1 90 1st 38.4 s 3.2 s
2nd 40.5 s 3.1 s
Smooth 1st 29.1 s 4.8 s
2nd 29.2 s 5.0 s
1 mm 1st 40.5 s 2.7 s
2nd 40.8 s 2.7 s
2 mm 1st 32.4 s 3.3 s
2nd 39.9 s 3.4 s


2 900 1st 29.0 s 4.4 s
2nd 33.2 s 3.7 s
Smooth 1st 27.0 s 5.6 s
2nd 21.5 s 7.1 s
1 mm 1st 21.9 s 5.1 s
2nd 25.3 s 4.4 s
2 mm 1st 23.8 s 5.2 s
2nd 33.9 s 3.2 s


3 90 1st 31.5 s 4.1 s
2nd 30.3 s 4.7 s
Smooth 1st 19.6 s 4.5 s
2nd 27.2 s 6.1 s
1 mm 1st 17.7 s 4.7 s
2nd 30.7 s 3.3 s
2 mm 1st 23.2 s 4.2 s
2nd 29.7 s 3.3 s











(90-shoreline


and


mm-textured-surface-conditions),


slightly


slower


turnaround


times


(smooth-surface


and


mm-


textured-surface


conditions


Similar


to the


results


from


this


subject,


data


Table


show


that


Subject


, quicker


walking


speeds


under


second


exposure


to the


900-shoreline


and


the


mm-


textured-surface


condition


were


accompanied


quicker


turns.


For


this


subject,


slight


reductions


walking


speeds


first


exposure


to 900-shoreline


and


first


exposure


to smooth-surface


condition)


were


accompanied


slightly


slower


turns,


whereas


larger


reductions


walking


speeds


(first


exposure


to 900-shoreline


and


second


exposure


smooth-surface


turns.


between


However,


first


condition)


were


Subject


exposure


accompanied


reductions


to smooth-surface


even


slower


walking


and


speeds


first


exposure


to the


mm-textured-surface


conditions


were


accompanied


slightly


quicker


turns


under


these


conditions.


In general,


comparisons


mean


walking


speeds


and


mean


time


per


turn


within


each


condition


show


consistent


results;


under


each


these


conditions,


increases


walking


speed


were


accompanied


decreases


in times


per


turn


(900-shoreline,


mm-textured-surface,


and


mm-[1


textured-surface


conditions),


and


decreases


walking


speed











comparison


first


exposure


the


9Oo-


shoreline


condition


Subject


slower


walking


speeds


under


first


exposure


smooth-surface,


mm -


textured-s


surface,


and


mm-textured-surface


conditions


were


accompanied


only


slightly


slower


turns,


and


when


these


three


conditions


were


reinstated,


Subject


increased


walking


speeds


these


conditions.


However,


these


increases


were


accompanied


quicker


turns


under


mm~-


and


mm-textured-surface


conditions.


Under


the


smooth-


surface


condition,


accompanied


exception


increases


slower


the


turning.


smooth-surface


in walking


speed


Similarly,

condition,


wit

all


were

h the

increases


walking


speeds


within


each


experimental


condition


were


accompanied


decreases


in times


per


turn.


Faster


walking


Subject


under


smooth-surface


condition


was


accompanied


slower


turning.


Discussion


When


a continuous


shoreline


placed


on an open,


smooth surface

shoreline can


area,

exert


the stimuli

control over


that

the


comprise


walking


that

a visually


impaired


individual


and


produce


a straight


line


walking.


the


open


absence


areas,


of specific


accuracy


"guiding"


stimuli,


straight-line


such


walking


behavior











optimal


conditions


unsighted


walking,


respectively


These


two


conditions


served


as control


conditions


the


present


experiment.


results


from


two


control


conditions


were


compared


to each


other,


results


from


the


two


textured-surface


conditions


order


examine:


controlling


effects


textured


stimuli


on maintaining


straight


line


walking


(directional


continuity


the limiting o

these textured


r impeding

stimuli o


factors,


n walking


any,


speeds.


the


Time


heights


allocations


from


central


conditions


were


panel


slightly


series


lower


under


than


both


those


textured-surface


under


shoreline


condition


indic


eating


that


textured


surfaces


can


produce


directional


continuity


functionally


similar


to that


produced


a 900-shoreline.


These


results


support


those


from


previous


studies


suggesting


that


textured


surfaces


can


used


as a continuous


shoreline


to maintain


straight-line


walking


(Aiello


and


Steinfeld,


1979;


Brabyn


and


Strelow,


1977;


Braf,


1974;


Templer,


1980;


1983).


The


present


study


differs


from


previous


studies


least


two


ways.


The


first


diff


erence


involves


methods


used


assess


various


characteristics


of walking.


For


example,


some


previous


studies


have


examined


straight


-line











standard,


quantitative


measures


straight-line


walking


that


are


vital


to conducting


an analysis


and


necessary


order


compare


results


from


different


experiments


straight-line


walking.


In contrast,


other


studies


that


demonstrated


utility


computerized


measurement


systems


acquire


various


standard


walking


measures


surfaces


did


on these


examine


measures


effects


(Brabyn


Strelow,


1977).


to specific


present


areas


the


study


experimental


utilized


pathway


time


and


allocated


changes


walking


speeds


subjects


as standard,


dependent


measures


of straight-line


walking


and


impeded


walking,


respectively.


Thus,


the


present


experiment


demonstrates


that


experimental


questions


regarding


utility


textured


surfaces


walking


behavior


can


answered


with


respect


two


standard


and


direct


dependent


measures.


second


difference


between


present


study


and


previous


(Brabyn


studies


Strelow,


that,


1977),


with

prior


the


exception


studies


had


one


limited


study

the


number


trials


under


each


experimental


condition


more


than


two


or three


trials


(cf.,


Templer,


1980;


1983).


the


present


study,


subj


ects


were


exposed


to a minimum


ten


trials


min)


under


each


experimental


condition.


ass


essing


degree


control


various


surface










both


within


experimental


sessions


with


repeated


trials,


between


sessions


following


repeated


exposure


to experimental


conditions.


change


walking


speeds


(both


within


and


between


sessi


subjects


as a function


the


various


experimental


conditions


ranged


from


slow


and


gradual


behavior


transitions


(such


as the


performance


Subject


during


the


first


exposure


to 90


horeline


condition),


abrupt


and


pronounced


changes


walking


speeds.


The


abrupt


changes


walking


speeds


three


subjects


under


mm-textured-surface


conditions


serves


as a good


example


the


limiting


or impeding


factors


some


textured


stimuli,


as well


as demonstrating


importance


using


repeated


trials


or exposures


to experimental


conditions.


During


the


second


exposure


the


mm-textured-surface


condition,


walking


speeds


Subject


increased


abruptly


between


trials


and


to levels


comparable


those


speeds


generated


under


horeline


and


under


mm-textured-


surface


condition.


differences


in speeds


between


first


and


second


exposure


mm-textured-surface


condition


were


a function


of different


cane


motions


used


Subj


(These


different


cane


motions


were


measured


directly


but


were


identified


experimenter


viewing


the











in an arc


motion.


Consequently,


Subject


frequently


caught


the


cane


tip


between


the


mm raised


round


stud,


thereby


impeding

second e


walking


exposure


and

to 2


decrease


walking


Subject


changed


speeds.


the


During

sweeping


the

arc


motion


to placing


cane


to a stationary


position


directly


front


body


with


cane


tip


between


column


raised


studs.


This


change


resulted


cane


tip


catching


less


frequently


and


increased


walking


speeds


this


subject.


The


and


experimenter


from


viewing


noted


similar


video


cane


recordings


motions


from


Subjects


their


experimental


sessions.


During


mm-textured-surface


condition


(first


exposure),


Subject


used


a sweeping


arc


motion


and


cane


tip


frequently


caught


raised


round


studs.


placing


the


cane


tip


between


two


columns


raised


studs


during


second


exposure


this


condition,


Subject


reduced


frequency


catching


the


cane


tip


and


increased


number


of meters


walked


per


minute.


For


Subject


, the


sweeping


arc


motion


impeded


walking


during


first


exposure


mm-textured-surface


condition,


indicated


low


walking


speeds.


comparison


these


results


using


sweeping


arc


motion,


performances


this


subject


during


second


exposure











exposure


the


mm-textured-surface


condition.


Subject


however,


alternated


between


the


sweeping


arc


motion


and


placing


the


cane


tip


between


two


columns


studs


during


subsequent


expo


sures


to textured


surface


conditions.


These


suggesting


results


that


support


a surface


those


material


from


previous


used


studies


a shoreline


may


improve


may


one


become


aspect


a potential


walking

hazard


(directional


or impede


continuity)


walking


but


(Templer,


1980;


1983)


The


present


study,


however,


differs


from


the


previous


studies


that


did


examine


these


two


aspects


walking


behavior


simultaneously.


Templer


(1983


did


identify


any


specific


cane


motions,


nor


were


there


any


indications


these


studies


that


cane


motion


was


controlled


as an independent


variable.


Although


measured


directly


this


experiment,


cane


motion


used


the


subjects


appears


to be


one


several


critical


variables


that


determines


the


effect


textured


surface


height


(and


most


likely


texture


configuration


shape


on walking


speeds.


Other


variables


that


may


affect


walking


speeds


include


design


and


dimen


sions


the


cane


tip,


amount


pressure


exerted


subject


on the


cane,


the


size


arc


the


sweeping


motion,


so on.


Other


questions


can


asked


regards


to stimulus-











and


time


required


turn


around


the


ends


the


pathway


in order


to repeat


pathway


traversals.


For


three


subjects,


the


second


exposure


mm-textured-


surface


condition


resulted


increases


in time


allocated


central


panels,


decreases


in the


time


allocated


the


left


and


right


panels,


and


increases


in walking


speeds.


consistent


these


results


appear


these


subjects,


examination


third


dependent


variable,


amount


time


subject


was


pathway,


reveals


differences


performances


that


are


immediately


apparent


examining


just


time


allocations


and


walking


speeds.


For


example,


under


mm-textured


-surface


condition,


Subject


increased


the


amount


time


pathway


from


an average


seconds


per


trial


(first


exposure


an average


seconds


per


trial


(second


exposure).


When


the


mm-


textured-surface


condition


was


reinstated,


straight


-line


walking


the


and


increases


walking


speeds


in walking


Subject


speeds


did


increased,;


result


however,


this


subject


remaining


on the


pathway


a greater


period


time


the


the


during


length


pathway


the


trials.


the


pathway


primarily


On the


quicker


because


contrary,


and


there


Subject


increased


were


more


walked


time


opportunities


turning


around


to repeat


pathway


traversals.


The


mean











An examination


amount


time


Subject


was


pathway


reveals


an interpretation


different


from


that


Subject


Under


mm-textured-surface


condition,


Subject


decreased


amount


time


the


pathway


from


an average


seconds


trial


(first


exposure)


average


this


seconds


condition,


trial.


straight-line


During


walking


the


and


second


walking


exposure


speeds


increased


this


subject.


In contrast


to Subject


although


this


subject


increased


number


opportunities


turning


around


increasing


walking


speeds,


the


time


pathway


decreased


primarily


because


reductions


mean


times


per


turnaround.


In other


words,


Subject


walked


greater


distances


within


300-s


trial


because


this


subject


executed


turnaround


quicker


rather


than


just


walking


quicker.


The


amount


time


Subject


was


the


pathway


under


mm-textured-surface


conditions


was


slightly


higher


during


the


second


exposure


(approximately


seconds


per


trial


than


during


first


exposure


(approximately


seconds


this


per


subject


trial).


also


was


walked


described


a greater


number


Subjects


and


pathway


traversals


during


second


exposure


to the


mm-textured-


surface


condition


and,


therefore,


increased











turnaround


that


accompanied


these


increases


in walking


speeds.


As a dependent


measure,


amount


time


subjects


were


the


pathway


is useful


clarifying


how


variables


such


as walking


surfaces


affect


walking


speeds


and


straight-


line


walking,


particularly


when


the


experimental


sign


requires


order


subjects


to repeat


manner


to step


pathway


in which


these


traversals.


measures


pathway


and


turnaround


Unfortunately,


were


due


derived


present


experiment,


these


data


provide


no basi


to determine


quantitatively


whether


subjects


was


the


pathway


extreme


right


or left


sides


, or off


the


pathway


either


end


pathway


length.


reasonable


assume


that


when


subjects


decreased


times


allocated


the


left


panels


and


right


panel


, as


in the


case


mm-texture


-surface


condition,


any


increases


time


pathway


were


most


likely


a function


increases


times


spent


turning


around


to repeat


pathway


traversals


Under


smooth-surface


condition


in which


subjects


increased


time


allocated


left


and


right


panels


, the


probability


that


subjects


were


pathway


on the


extreme


left


and


right


sides


increased.


For


example,


under


the


smooth-


surface


condition,


mean


walking


speeds










increased


as well.


Although


mean


time


per


turn


this


subject


increased


during


second


exposure


from


approximately


seconds


per


turn


to 6


seconds


per


turn,


these


Increases


could


account


the


substantial


increases


in time


pathway


from


approximately


seconds


per


trial


(first


exposure


seconds


per


trial


second


exposure).


Additionally,


the


stribution


mean


time


on the


left,


center,


right


panels


Subj


ect 3


(Figure


shows


that


during


second


exposure


the


smooth


surface


distributed


condition,


across


walking

these t


appears


hree


to be


panels.


more

Thus,


evenly

Subject


appears


to be


spending


substantial


amounts


time


the


pathway


on the


extreme


left


right


sides


during


second


exposure


to the


smooth-surface


condition,


which


accounts


large


increases


in the


values


the


amounts


time


spent


pathway.


Another


problem


with


manner


which


times


the


pathway


were


derived


was


that


these


measures


were


directly


influenced


degree


to which


subjects


walked


on two


panel


series


simultaneously


and


activated


both


running


time


meters.


frequency


activating


both


running


time


meters


increased,


there


was


a greater


likelihood


assuming


more


time


was


allocated


to remaining


on the


pathway


than,











panels


whereas


under


textured-surface


conditions


and,


particular,


under


smooth


-surface


conditions


this


dependent


measure


may


have


resulted


in erroneous


interpretations


of walking


performances


Similarly,


because


ese


values


were


used


to determine


the


mean


time


per


turn


(i.e.,


time


spent


pathway


per


trial


divided


number


turnarounds


trial),


same


problems


apply


these


measures


as well.


Under


these


limiting


conditions


interpretation,


careful


viewing


video


recordings


experimenter


offered


some


validation


interpretations


described


above.


There


is no substitute,


however,


direct


measures


time


subjects


were


the


pathway


Thus,


arranging


additional


detection


panels


around


perimeter


pathway


would


provide


these


direct


measures


subj


location


when


subject


was


pathway.


Similarly,


attaching


an additional


running


time


meter


to record


relay


switch


osures


from


any


three


panel


series


is one


way


to record


the


total


time


the


pathway,


and


would


eliminate


the


problem


described


above.


Unfortunately,


these


direct


measures


were


used


the


present


experiment,


nor


were


they


used


Experiment


Measures


overall


walking


speeds


can


influenced











number


one-meter


panel


lengths


traversed


within


300-


s trial


For


subjects


under


the


shoreline


condition,


were


lateral


restricted


movements


wooden


left


shoreline


and


and


right


walking


panels


was


confined


movement


to the


from


central


central


panel


panel


series


series


, whereas


was


lateral


unrestricted


under


other


conditions.


Another


important


variable


that


affects


overall


walking


speed


the


amount


time


spent


turning


around.


There


were


several


instances


which


Increases


in mean


walking


speed


between


first


and


second


exposures


to the


experimental


conditions


were


accompanied


decreases


mean


time


per


turn,


or decreases


in mean


walking


speed


between


exposures


were


accompanied


increases


in mean


time


per


turn.


Assuming


that


limitations


data


describing


time


the


pathway


and


mean


time


per


turnaround


are


minimal


(i.e.,


simultaneous


running


time


meter


activations


or small


amount s


time


spent


extreme


left


and


right


sides


pathway


then


ese


results


suggest


that


there


may


a relation


ship


between


walking


speed

what


and t

aspect


urnaround


speed.


"turning


However,


around"


is affect


is unclear


ed under


as to


the


experimental


conditions


For


example


, subj


ects


could


900-











time


subjects


spent


engaging


in orienting


motions


with


their


canes


following


spin,


prior


to stepping


on the


pathway.


The


behaviors


involved


turning


around


between


pathway


traversals


need


to be


identified


more


precisely


and,


possible,


measured


directly.


Although


the


computerized


system


described


Strelow,


Brabyn


and


Clark


(1976


provides


more


accurate


measures


subject


position


than


those


present


experiment,


detection


panels


have


an advantage


over


the


computerized


measurement


system


described


previously.


The


tension


weights

subjects


used

and,


the

the


computerized


absence


system may


of careful


be detectable


calibration


mechanical


could in

position


sensors


troduce


and


tension


extraneous


detection.


weights,


variables
S S


detection


p


the


that


anels


experimenter


may

used


affect


the


pre


sent


experiment


removes


recording


device


from


subject


s body


and


places


the


device


directly


on the


walking


surface,


thereby


eliminating


these


variables.


However,


s since


the


extreme


edges


detection


pathway


were


flush


to the floor


experiment


introduces


smooth-surface


condition.


experimental


an extraneous


Thus,


room,


variable


smooth


the


under


surface


present


the


served


as the


st optimal


condition


examined


present











Additionally,


walking


speeds


subjects


should


lower


under


allow


completely


lateral


smooth


surfaces


movements


with


because


greater


design


stances


would


and,


general,


fewer


panel


lengths


traversed


per


trial.


above


cons


iderations


suggest


that


further


research


on walking


that


utili


zes


detection


panels


should


control


extreme


edges


the


left


and


right


panels


, as well


those


edges


on either


end


pathway.


Thi


can


accomplish

be placed


hed


in at least


on the


floor


two


way


next


More


extreme


crylic

edges


sheets


the


can

left


and


right


panel


so that


entire


walking


surface


one


level.


Another


possible


modification


is to countersink


the


entire


pathway


so that


edges


pathway


rise


the


level


rest


floor


surface.


summary,


the


results


from


Experiment


support


previous


research


on supplementation


of environments


with


textured


persons


surfaces


A textured


a mobility


surface


aid


either


visually


mm or 2


impaired


mm can


produce


straight


-line


walking


comparable


to that


produced


when


a 900-shoreline


is used,


and


can


produce


a speed


walking


comparable


to a 90


-shoreline,


depending


upon


the


manner


which


the


cane


is used.


These


result


clarify


the


sugge


stion


Templer


(1980;


1983)


that


textured


surfaces











experiment,


only


those


cane


movements


perpendicular


to the


direction

decreases


of walking


walking


speeds.


a sweeping

These an


arc


ecdotal


resulted


descriptions


cane


motions


suggest


that,


depending


on cane


motion


used


subjects,


a textured


surface


that


varies


mm can


impede


walking


and


decrease


walking


speeds.


Experiment


examined


the


effects


two


cane


motions


on walking


speed


straight


motions


that


-line

were


walking


described


measuring

anecdotally


directly,


the


these


present


experiment.















EXPERIMENT


TWO


Introduction


When


or no structures


demarcate


a distinct


travel


path


in an open


area,


a continuous


textured


surface


placed


walking


surface


can


serve


a stimulus


to control


walking


visually


impaired


individuals.


In Experiment


blindfolded


subjects


walking


on a 1


mm and


mm textured


surface


maintained


a straight-line


walking


similar


that


maintained


under


a continuous


90-shoreline


condition.


Subjects


who


maintained


contact


between


cane


tip


and


the


textured


textured


surface


surface


allocated


from


nearly


panels


walking


on which


time


surface


the


was


placed.


Although


a textured


surface


may


increase


straight-line


walking,


some


the


physical


dimensions


or the


design


textured


material


may


impede


walking


speed


and


counteract


the


benefit


directional


continuity


gained


using


the


continuous

variation


textured


surface


surface.

materials


Previous studies

exceeding (12 m


suggest


that


height


can


become


a tripping


hazard


to visually


impaired


individuals


or can


impede


forward


movement


catching











studs


as small


in height


can


reduce


walking


speed


blindfolded


subjects


walking


with


a cane


temporarily;


however,


the


amount


or duration


of reduced


walking


speed


may


be a function


cane


method


used


subjects.


Other


variations


textured


material


may


contribute


reduced


walking


speed


these


subjects


such


as the


distance


between


rubber


studs,


uniformity


or configuration


design


and


so on.


In Experiment


, cane


motion


was


measured


directly,


nor


were


these


variations


in textured


surfaces


described


immediate


above


directly


manipulated


independent


variables


Therefore,


these


interpretations


are


anec


dotal


and


are


based


on ob


servations


of video


recordings


experimental


sess


ions


experimenter.


When


mm-textured


-surface


was


placed


on the


walking


surface


central


pathway


(Experiment


the


predominant


cane


method


used


subjects


was


most


similar


the


touch-drag


method


which


subject


holds


the


cane


waist


level


center


body


and


cane


extended


so that


tip


is approximate


one


full


step


front


subject.


subject


moves


forward,


the


cane


is dragged


from


side


-to-side


ian an arc


motion


perpendicular


to the


direction


travel


so that


the


cane


always


checks


advance


area


in which


the


subject











between


the


touch-drag


method


and


a variation


cane


trailing


method


which


cane


placed


between


two


columns


raised


2-mm


studs


and


tip


moves


forward


between


these


two


columns


as the


subject


moves


forward


(Hill


Ponder,


1976).


Some


mobility-instruction


manuals


suggest


that


degree


pressure


applied


to the


cane


during


either


drag


motion


or during


forward


motion


may


critical


to the


degree


snagging


or jamming


that


may


occur


between


cane


tip


and


surface


variations


related


to surface


materials


or surface


configuration


(All


Griffith,


Shaw,


1977;


Hill


Ponder,


1976;


Peel,


1974).


When


subjects


Experiment


used


touch-drag


method


with


the


mm-


textured

raised s


surface,


tuds


cane


during


drag


frequently


motion.


jammed


between


Alternatively,


when


each


subject


began


using


cane


trailing


method


they


generally


encountered


fewer


incidences


cane


jamming.


Once


again,


these


variations


in cane


motion


were


not


manipulated


systematically


and


these


results


were


not


measured


directly.


Therefore,


these


descriptions


the


subjects


are


anecdotal.


The


present


experiment


(Experiment


systematically


examined


the


touch-drag


method


and


cane


trailing


method











this


study


will


extend


current


literature


on mobility


providing


data


on the


effects


using


two


different


cane


methods


on textured


surfaces.


Previous


studies


on the


effects


textured


surfaces


on walking


behavior


did


not


examine


cane


methods


directly.


The


results


from


this


experiment


may


provide


a quantitative


basis


mobility


specialists


to determine


which


cane


method


visually


impaired


individuals


should


use


when


encountering


a certain


type


textured


surface.


Method


Subjects


Three


subjects


volunteered


serve


in Experiment


responding


to a subject


recruitment


notice


posted


the


administration


office


South


Shore


Mental


Health


Center.


Subject


from


previous


experiment,


participated


and


two


other


subjects


were


recruited


Subject


was


a 38-year-


old


female


and


was


height,


and


Subject


was


a 20-year-old


female


was


5'6"


(168


height.


Experiment


neither


novice


subjects


had


visual


deficits


nor


wore


corrective


ses


, and


none


the


subjects


had


ever


received


formal


training


the


area


orientation


and


mobility


visually


impaired


persons.


All











Apparatus


The


experimental


apparatus


and


data


collection


system


present


experiment


were


same


as those


Experiment


, and


were


located


in a room measuring


meters


x 5.2


meters.


All


detection


panels,


clocks


and


counters


were


Experiment


calibrated


ensure


same


proper


and


manner


consistent


as described


functioning.


Each


subject


wore


a Count-a-Step


II quartz


digital


pedometer


on the


wris


t of


arm


that


held


the


cane.


The


pedometer


was


positioned


to detect


side-to-side


movement


and


to provide


a cumulative


count


arm


movements


which


exceeded


(i.e.,


approximate


width


of each


subject'

session,


body


at waist


pedometer


level).


was


Prior


calibrated


to each


experimental


experimenter


ensure


side-t


o-s


arm


movement


subjects


during


touch-drag


In order


condition


to calibrate


approximately


met


pedometer,


cm criterion.


experimenter


hung


and


secured


two


taut


eces


string


from


ceiling


floor


experimental


room


that


were


separated


from


each


other


pedometer


cm.


to his


The


wrist,


experimenter


placed


wrist


strapped


between


the


the


strings,


and


moved


arm


side-to-side


fifty


times


such


that


each


movement


resulted


arm


alternate











was


less


than


sensitivity


control


pedometer


was


adjusted


and


this


calibration


procedure


was


repeated.


Following


this


first


phase


the


calibration


procedure,


the


two


strings


were


moved


closer


together


(i.e.,


cm apart


from


one


another


the


calibration


procedure


was


repeated


experimenter.


count


on the


pedometer


pedometer


exceeded


was


two,


adjusted


sensitivity


this


portion


control


the


calibration


procedure


was


repeated


at a di


stance


the


count


was


two


or less,


then


pedometer


was


removed


from


the


experimenter'


wrist,


reset


zero,


and


carefully


aside


until


experimenter


placed


pedometer


on the


wri


st of


the


subject.


Although


this


calibration


procedure


ensured


that


side-to


-side


arm


movements


approximately


cm or more


were


recorded


directly,


pedometer


was


sensitive


sudden


impact


arm.


Thus,


side-to-side


arm


movement


that


did


exceed


cm rarely


resulted


pedometer


activation;


however,


pedometer


was


activated


arm


came


an abrupt


stop,


such


as when


tip


the


cane


was


caught


between


two


rubber


studs.


Procedure


Prior


start


Experiment


experimenter


escorted


each


blindfolded


subject


into


the


experimental


room











Plea
the
grip
Now
of y
walk
want
you


se step
edge.
aligne
place t
ou. Wh
to the
you to
are now


will repeat
minutes.


up to
Hold y
d with
he tip
en I s
end o
turn
stand


th
our
th
on
ay
f t
aro
ing


walking


,e


path


cane
*e mid
the
you c
he pa
und a
and,
back


in
sec
sur
an
th
nd
ag


d stop
front


tion
face
begi
and
walk
ain,


alr
, I
tep
bac
tur


when
,f you
your
ectly
want
off.
k to
n aro


forth


you


reach


with t
abdomen
in fro
you to
Then
the pla
und. Y


five


I
ce
ou


L
*


moving
cane
panel
lifti
here
panel


g
t


et m
the
ip w
and
g th
i.e.
andc


e

'a
c
e
I
e


ass
tip
s li
entr
tip
the
ntra


t you
your
ed and
panel
f your
ip was
panel)


in li
cane
plac
). N
cane
plac


fting the
over here
ed between
ow let me
and movi
ed between


ane
i.e
the
sis
it
the


and
., the
left
t you
over
right


Cane
path
point
you
(The
colu
the
from


t
a

m
c


trail
I wa
s. I
nd tr
tipof
ns of
entra


pan


- As
nt you
want
y not
the c
rubber
1 pane


you


wal


' tr
to
mov
wa
uds
and


k b
to
eep
yo
pl
loc
the


k and forth on
tay within the
he cane in fro
arm left or r
ed in between
ed in the midd
ane was pushed


the
e two
t of
ght.
he two
e of
forward


to panel


Touch-dracr


path, I
points.
you by
right.
between
cane wa
the joi
Then, t
the tip
central


- As


you


want you
I want y
moving you
(The tip
the left
I


s pusnea
nt between
he cane w
reached
panels).


h
p
F.


the


walk
try
to m
arm t
the
nel a
the r
he ri
pushe'
* a


t
0

c
n
i
g
d


joint


back a
o stay
ve the
the 1
ane wa
d cent
ght un
ht and
back
betwe


forth
a* a


witn
cane
eft a
s lif
ral p
til t
cent
tothe
en th


in
in
nd
ted
ane
he
ral
le


on the


t

t

1
t


hese
front
o the
and p
and
ip re
panel
t unt
ft an


two
of


1
t
a
s
i
d


aced
he
ched


you


walk
these
When
+i san A


should


off
two
I sa
I nn


the


1'


poi
4-4-
. .


find


path
nts
top"
1, -+


yourself


I
an


C. nflr


the
nti
ase
* -


be
nue
st


disoriented


op
a


you c
walking
walk
4-


an
be


or i
to fi
tween
rema
. 4. S Ca


r you
nd
them.
in


Q


i


r.rrr











ir you
trials.


wish


Once


to do


you


a trial


may


begins


take


a break


will


between


answer


question
not have


until
any q


trial


questions


is completed.


we can


you


begin.


Each


trial


was


conducted


in the


same


manner


Experiment


and


experimental


trials


were


mmn


duration.


Table


shows


number


trials


and


mean


number


side


-to-side


arm


movements


under


the


four


experimental


conditions,


seen


and


in Table


the

all


order


subjects


exposure

showed


to each

a greater


condition.


number


pedometer


activations


under


touch-drag


conditions


than


under


the


cane


trail


conditions,


thus


indicating


that


greater


under


number


touch-drag


side-to-side


conditions


arm


than


movements


under


were


cane


emitted


trail


conditions.


example


under


touch-drag


conditions,


Subj


ects


and


emitted,


average


, twelve


times


more


arm


movements


per


trail


under


touch-drag


conditions,


and


Subject


emitted,


on the


average,


thirty-six


times


more


movements.


The


values


number


movements


Subject


under


these


conditions


seem


too


excessive


to be


strictly


determined


side-to-side


arm


movements


(i.e.,


approximately


arm


sweeping


motions


per


second).


However,


as mentioned


previously,


pedometer


was


sensitive


abrupt


interruptions


motion


or jolts


to the


arm


or wrist.


C C~~rH


-l a -


*


L Aa a a ea


la...~ a am


A rJ ~ ; C ; An ~ 1 1 r


*


mLA












Table


Summary of the
Subjects 2, 4,
movements per
condition.


experimental conditions (in order) for
and 5 with the mean number of side-to-side
trial, and the number of trials under each


arm


Subject Experimental Condition # Movements # of Trials



2 1 mm touch-drag 355 10
2 mm touch-drag 261 12
2 mm cane trailing 14 13
1 mm cane trailing 36 11
1 mm touch-drag 452 10
2 mm cane trailing 43 10
2 mm touch-drag 225 10
1 mm cane trailing 12 10


4 1 mm cane trailing 21 12
1 mm touch-drag 684 13
2 mm cane trailing 14 12
2 mm touch-drag 687 13
2 mm cane trailing 22 10
1 mm cane trailing 13 10
1 mm touch-drag 603 12
2 mm touch-drag 663 10


5 2 mm touch-drag 225 15
1 mm cane trailing 21 13
2 mm touch-drag 297 11
1 mm cane trailing 22 10
2 mm cane trailing 25 10
1 mm touch-drag 343 13
2 mm- cane trailing 23 10
1 mm touch-drag 315 10











these


factors


may


account


excess


values


arm


movements


recorded


under


touch


-drag


conditions


Subject


All


subjects


were


exposed


to experimental


conditions


until


two


dependent


measures


(time


allocated


to left,


central,


right


panels


series


, and


walking


speed)


appeared


stable


at lea


st five


consecutive


trial


(Appendix


B contains


representative


data


statistical


points


analy


of walking


ses


speed


the

used


determine st

experimental


ability


condition


dependent


third


measure


dependent


under


each


measure,


the


amount


time


subjects


were


pathway


per


trial,


was


calculated


same


manner


as described


Experiment


and


the


stability


these


data


was


a factor


determining


changes


in experimental


conditions.


The


values


the


turnaround


time


were


calculated


the


same


manner


as described


Experiment


Experimental


sessions


were


conducted


days


per


week


and


were


approximately


one


-hour


duration.


suits


All


subj


ects


walked


back


forth


on the


pathway


different


speeds


, depending


upon


the experimental


condition.




Full Text

PAGE 1

())(&76 2) 7(;785(' :$/.,1* 685)$&(6 21 :$/.,1* %(+$9,25 ,1 9,68$//< 5(675,&7(' 3(56216 %\ -())5(< + .83)(5 $ ',66(57$7,21 35(6(17(' 72 7+( *5$'8$7( 6&+22/ 2) 7+( 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$ ,1 3$57,$/ )8/),//0(17 2) 7+( 5(48,5(0(176 )25 7+( '(*5(( 2) '2&725 2) 3+,/2623+< 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 2

&RS\ULJKW E\ + .XSIHU

PAGE 3

, GHGLFDWH WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ WR WKH ORYLQJ PHPRU\ RI P\ PRWKHU &ODLUH .XSIHU 6KH QHYHU GRXEWHG WKDW ZRXOG FRPSOHWH P\ GLVVHUWDWLRQ

PAGE 4

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f SURJUDP RI WKH SV\FKRORJ\ GHSDUWPHQW DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD ZDV LQ WKH ULJKW SODFH DW WKH ULJKW WLPH ZLWK WKH ULJKW SHRSOH DQG ZDQW WR WKDQN DOO RI WKH JUDGXDWH VWXGHQWV SDVW DQG SUHVHQW LQ WKH ($% SURJUDP DP JUDWHIXO WR &KULV ( +XJKHV IRU DVVLVWLQJ PH ZLWK WKH JUDSKV IURP WKH UHVXOWV VHFWLRQ DQG DP HVSHFLDOO\ JUDWHIXO WR 5D\PRQG & 3LWWV IRU KLV DVVLVWDQFH DV ZHOO DV IRU KLV IULHQGVKLS RYHU WKH LY

PAGE 5

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

PAGE 6

7$%/( 2) &217(176 SDJH $&.12:/('*0(17 /,67 2) 7$%/(6 /,67 2) ),*85(6 $%675$&7 ,1752'8&7,21 LY ,; 0RWRU 6NLOOV 9LVLRQ DQG :DONLQJ 0RYHPHQW 7KURXJK WKH (QYLURQPHQW 9LVXDO /RVV DQG :DONLQJ 0HWKRGRORJLFDO ,VVXHV LQ WKH $QDO\VLV RI :DONLQJ 2SHUDQW %HKDYLRU DQG :DONLQJ (;3(5,0(17 21( ,QWURGXFWLRQ 0HWKRG 6XEMHFWV $SSDUDWXV 3URFHGXUH 5HVXOWV 'LVFXVVLRQ (;3(5,0(17 7:2 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 0HWKRG 6XEMHFWV $SSDUDWXV 3URFHGXUH YL 5HVXOWV

PAGE 7

'LVFXVVLRQ *(1(5$/ ',6&866,21 &RQVHTXHQFHV RI :DONLQJ &RQWLQJHQFLHV RI 5HLQIRUFHPHQW DQG :DONLQJ 5()(5(1&(6 $33(1',; %,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+

PAGE 8

/,67 2) 7$%/(6 7DEOH 3DJH 6XPPDU\ RI ([SHULPHQWDO &RQGLWLRQV LQ RUGHUf IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG ZLWK WKH 1XPEHU RI 7ULDOV 8QGHU (DFK &RQGLWLRQ 6XPPDU\ RI 0HDQ :DONLQJ 6SHHGV DQG 0HDQ 7LPHV 3HU 7XUQDURXQG IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG 8QGHU (DFK ([SHULPHQWDO &RQGLWLRQ 6XPPDU\ RI ([SHULPHQWDO &RQGLWLRQV LQ RUGHUf IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG ZLWK WKH 0HDQ 1XPEHU RI 6LGH7R6LGH $UP 0RYHPHQWV 3HU 7ULDO DQG WKH 1XPEHU RI 7ULDOV 8QGHU (DFK &RQGLWLRQ 6XPPDU\ RI 0HDQ :DONLQJ 6SHHGV DQG 0HDQ 7LPHV 3HU 7XUQDURXQG IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG 8QGHU (DFK ([SHULPHQWDO &RQGLWLRQ f f f 9OOO

PAGE 9

/,67 2) ),*85(6 )LJXUH 9HUWLFDO &URVV6HFWLRQ 9LHZ RI D 'HWHFWLRQ 3DQHO 3DWK /D\RXW DQG 3ODFHPHQW RI 'HWHFWLRQ 3DQHOV 7LPH 0HWHUV 5HVSRQVH &RXQWHUV DQG (OHFWURPHFKDQLFDO (TXLSPHQW +RUL]RQDO &URVV6HFWLRQ RI WKH /HIW &HQWHU DQG 5LJKW 3DQHO 6HULHV 8QGHU DOO ([SHULn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

PAGE 10

6XPPDU\ )LJXUHV RI WKH 1XPEHU RI 2QH0HWHU 3DQHO /HQJWKV :DONHG 3HU 0LQXWH 0HDQ 7LPH RQ (DFK 3DQHO 6HULHV DQG 7LPH 2II 3DWKZD\ IRU 6XEMHFW 8QGHU $OO &RQGLWLRQV LQ ([SHULPHQW 3DJH [

PAGE 11

$EVWUDFW RI 'LVVHUWDWLRQ 3UHVHQWHG WR WKH *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO RI WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD LQ 3DUWLDO )XOILOOPHQW RI WKH 5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH 'HJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ ())(&76 2) 7(;785(' :$/.,1* 685)$&(6 21 :$/.,1* %(+$9,25 ,1 9,68$//< 5(675,&7(' 3(56216 %\ -HIIUH\ + .XSIHU 0D\ &KDLUSHUVRQ ( ) 0DODJRGL 0DMRU 'HSDUWPHQW 3V\FKRORJ\ 7KHVH H[SHULPHQWV VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ H[DPLQH WZR FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU LQ YLVXDOO\ UHVWULFWHG LQGLYLGXDOV f GLUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\ PHDVXUHG E\ GHYLDWLRQV IURP VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ DQG f LPSHGHG ZDONLQJ PHDVXUHG E\ GHFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG ,Q ([SHULPHQW WKUHH EOLQGIROGHG VXEMHFWV ZLWK SUHVFULSWLYH ORQJ FDQHV ZHUH H[SRVHG WR IRXU ZDONLQJ VXUIDFH 7ZR RI WKH IRXU ZDONLQJ VXUIDFHV ZHUH FRPSULVHG RI UXEEHU WH[WXUHV PP RU PP LQ KHLJKW 7KH RWKHU WZR VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH FRQWURO SURFHGXUHV FRQVLVWLQJ RI HLWKHU D FRQWLQXRXV rVKRUHOLQH RU D VPRRWK VXUIDFH ZLWKRXW ODQGPDUNV RU VWUXFWXUHV %RWK PP DQG PP WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV DQG WKH r VKRUHOLQH SURGXFHG IHZ GHYLDWLRQV IURP VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ ZKHUHDV D VPRRWK VXUIDFH SURGXFHG JUHDWHU GHYLDWLRQV IURP VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ 7KH RVKRUHOLQH DQG WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV GLG QRW SURGXFH GHFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG ZKHUHDV WKH VPRRWK VXUIDFH SURGXFHG GHFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG 8QGHU WKH PP

PAGE 12

WH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ GHFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG E\ VXEMHFWV ZHUH D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH FDQH PHWKRG HPSOR\HG ([SHULPHQW H[DPLQHG WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ FDQH PHWKRG DQG ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU RQ WKH PP DQG PPWH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV 7KUHH EOLQGIROGHG VXEMHFWV ZHUH LQVWUXFWHG WR HLWKHU f KROG WKH FDQH LQ IURQW RI WKH PLGVHFWLRQ RI WKHLU ERG\ DQG WR PRYH WKH FDQH IRUZDUG ZKLOH ZDONLQJ IRUZDUG FDQH WUDLOf RU f GUDJ WKH FDQH LQ DQ DUF PRWLRQ LQ IURQW RI WKHLU ERG\ ZKLOH ZDONLQJ IRUZDUG WRXFKGUDJf )RU DOO VXEMHFWV WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV XQGHU DOO H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV SURGXFHG VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ DQG ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ZHUH ORZHVW XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQV 7KH UHVXOWV IURP ERWK H[SHULPHQWV VXJJHVW f PP DQG PPWH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV SODFHG LQ RSHQ DUHDV FDQ EH XVHG DV D VWUXFWXUH E\ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV IRU PDLQWHQDQFH RI VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ f SK\VLFDO GLPHQVLRQV RI WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV PD\ LPSHGH ZDONLQJ DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ GHFUHDVH ZDONLQJ VSHHG GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH FDQH PHWKRG HPSOR\HG DQG f H[SHULPHQWV GHVLJQHG WR H[DPLQH WKH HIIHFWV RI WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV RQ ZDONLQJ SHUIRUPDQFHV VKRXOG HPSOR\ PHDVXUHV RI ZDONLQJ VSHHG DQG VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQV RI ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU DUH GLVFXVVHG f m ;OO

PAGE 13

,1752'8&7,21 0RYLQJ WKURXJK WKH HQYLURQPHQW HIILFLHQWO\ DQG VDIHO\ LV DQ LPSRUWDQW VNLOO LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW DQG VXUYLYDO RI RUJDQLVPV :DONLQJ LV RQH IRUP RI ORFRPRWRU PRYHPHQW RU WUDYHO E\ ZKLFK KXPDQ EHLQJV DFFHVV RU DYRLG SDUWLFXODU REMHFWV HYHQWV RU DUHDV LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW 7KHVH ORFRPRWRU PRYHPHQWV DUH DQ LPSRUWDQW SDUW RI ERWK FRPPRQSODFH DQG FRPSOH[ DFWLYLWLHV VXFK DV YDFXXPLQJ UXJV PRZLQJ \DUGV FDUU\LQJ SDFNDJHV WR DQG IURP WKH FDU WR WKH KRXVH PDUFKLQJ LQ SDUDGHV VQHDNLQJ RXW RI D GXOO PHHWLQJ UXVKLQJ WR PRUQLQJ FODVVHV FURVVLQJ WKH VWUHHW ZLWKLQ WKH FURVVZDONV FDUU\LQJ JODVVHV RI ZDWHU ILOOHG WR WKH WRS SUHSDULQJ WR VWHDO VHFRQG EDVH GDQFLQJ WR D ZDOW] RU VWUROOLQJ FDVXDOO\ EHIRUH WDNLQJ LQ D PRYLH &RPPRQ WR HDFK RI WKHVH GLYHUVH DFWLYLWLHV LV WKH EHKDYLRU RI ZDONLQJ WKDW LV ZDONLQJ DW GLIIHUHQW VSHHGV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW JDLWV DQG SRVWXUHV XQGHU GLIIHUHQW VHWV RI FLUFXPVWDQFHV DQG FRQWUROOHG E\ GLIIHUHQW FRQVHTXHQFHV WKDW DUH DUUDQJHG E\ WKH HQYLURQPHQW LQ ZKLFK ZH OLYH 7KH YDULDEOHV WKDW FRQWURO ZDONLQJ DUH EURDGUDQJHG DQG UHVHDUFK RQ WKHVH YDULDEOHV KDV EHHQ FRQGXFWHG IURP D PLFUROHYHO RI DQDO\VLV RI FRRUGLQDWHG PRWRU VNLOOV LQYROYLQJ YDULRXV SDUWV DQG

PAGE 14

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nV DELOLW\ WR PRYH KLV RU KHU RZQ KHDG EXW WKHUH LV DQ LQDELOLW\ IRU DQ LQIDQW DW WKLV DJH WR PRYH KLV RU KHU KHDG DQG DUPV LQGHSHQGHQWO\ RI HDFK RWKHU $W DJH IRXU PRQWKV V\PPHWULF WRQLF QHFN UHIOH[ HPHUJHV DQG WKH ERG\ VKRZV VHJPHQWDWLRQ DQG VHSDUDWLRQ RI UHVSRQVHV RI DUPV OHJV QHFN DQG KLQG TXDUWHUV $FFRUGLQJ WR +DUW f WKH UHIOH[HV RI WKH QHZERUQ PXVW EH GLVHQJDJHG IURP

PAGE 15

UHIOH[ SDWWHUQV LQ RUGHU IRU LW WR SOD\ D UROH DV WKH NH\ VWUXFWXUH LQ EXLOGLQJ HUHFW SRVWXUH $ QRUPDO ZDONLQJ JDLW GHPDQGV QRW MXVW QRUPDO QHFN UHIOH[ DFWLYLW\ EXW DOVR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI ULJKWLQJ UHDFWLRQV EDODQFH SURWHFWLYH UHDFWLRQV URWDWLRQ DQG QRUPDO PXVFOH WRQH :LWKRXW WKHVH VNLOOV D FKLOG LV XQDEOH WR GHYHORS DQG UHILQH VNLOOV LQ ZDONLQJ FOLPELQJ DQG UXQQLQJ 7KH ODE\ULQWKLQH RU YHVWLEXODU ULJKWLQJ UHDFWLRQ DOORZV WKH KHDG WR UHPDLQ LQ XSULJKW SRVLWLRQ ZKHQ WKH SHOYLV LV PRYHG ZKHUHDV WKH QHFN ULJKWLQJ UHDFWLRQ EULQJV WKH ORZHU SDUWV RI WKH ERG\ LQWR OLQH ZLWK WKH XSULJKW KHDG 2SWLF ULJKWLQJ UHIOH[HV DUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU RULHQWDWLRQ RI KHDG DQG WKDW RULHQWDWLRQ LV FRQWUROOHG E\ YLVLRQ $QRWKHU LPSRUWDQW PRWRU VNLOO WKDW LV FULWLFDO WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI ZDONLQJ LV EDODQFH WKH DELOLW\ WR PDLQWDLQ RU DVVXPH DQ\ ERG\ SRVLWLRQ RU SRVWXUH DJDLQVW WKH IRUFH RI JUDYLW\ &KDQH\ DQG .HSKDUW f VXJJHVW WKDW SRVWXUH LV WKH EDVLF SDWWHUQ IURP ZKLFK DOO RWKHU PRYHPHQW SDWWHUQV GHYHORS DQG WKH FHQWHU RI JUDYLW\ LQ RQHnV SRVWXUH LV WKH SRLQW IURP ZKLFK GLUHFWLRQ VSDFH RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRYHPHQW PXVW RULJLQDWH $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH DXWKRUV RQO\ ZKHQ OLQH GLUHFWLRQ DQG IRUFH RI JUDYLW\ DUH HVWDEOLVKHG FDQ D FKLOG SURFHHG WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI FRRUGLQDWHV LQ VSDFH 7KH SRVLWLRQV RI WKH KHDG DQG WKH ERG\ DUH FULWLFDO IRU WKH PDLQWDLQLQJ SURSHU EDODQFH DQG SRVWXUH 7KH KHDG PXVW EH SURSHUO\

PAGE 16

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t 0RUULV f 6RPH UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH VXJJHVWHG WKDW RI WKH IRXU VRXUFHV RI VHQVRU\ LQIRUPDWLRQ WKDW FDQ VHUYH WR SUHVHUYH SRVWXUDO VWDELOLW\ LH YLVLRQ YHVWLEXODU VWLPXODWLRQ SURSULRFHSWLRQ DQG WRXFKf WKH YLVXDO V\VWHP SURFHVVHV H[DFW LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW VSDFH PRUH HIILFLHQWO\ WKDQ WKH RWKHU VHQVRU\ PRGDOLWLHV +RZDUG t 7HPSOHWRQ f 5HVHDUFKHUV KDYH H[DPLQHG WKH UROH RI YLVLRQ LQ UHODWLRQ WR PRWRU GHYHORSPHQW ,Q WKHLU REVHUYDWLRQV RI WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI YLVLRQ LQ LQIDQWV DQG \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ

PAGE 17

*HVHOO ,OJ DQG %XOOLV f GHVFULEH WKUHH IXQFWLRQDO SDUWV RI YLVLRQ f IL[DWLRQ LV WKDW SDUW RI YLVLRQ ZKLFK VHHNV DQG KROGV DQ LPDJH f IRFXV HQDEOHV WKH YLHZHU WR GLVFULPLQDWH DQG GHILQH DQ LPDJH DQG f IXVLRQ XQLILHV DQG LQWHUSUHWV WKH LPDJH RQ WKH FRUWLFDO 7KHVH REVHUYDWLRQV KDYH OHG WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DJH QRUPV DQG YLVXDO PDWXULW\ OHYHOV IRU FKLOGUHQ IURP IRXU ZHHNV WR QLQH \HDUV RI DJH RQ WKH EDVLV RI H\HKDQG FRRUGLQDWLRQ SRVWXUDO RULHQWDWLRQ IL[DWLRQ DQG UHWLQDO UHVSRQVH 6RPH UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH GHVFULEHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU DQG YLVXDO ORVV LQ UHIHUHQFH WR HQYLURQPHQWDO LQSXW 0LOOHU f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

PAGE 18

WKH EDVH RI RQHnV VXSSRUW KRZHYHU LI RXWWRHLQJ LV H[FHVVLYH ZDONLQJ VSHHG PD\ EH LPSHGHG $XVW f $ ZLGHEDVHG JDLW LV FRPPRQO\ REVHUYHG LQ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV DV D ZD\ WR LQFUHDVH VWDELOLW\ GXULQJ ZDONLQJ $FFRUGLQJ WR $XVW f ERWK WKH ZLGH EDVHG JDLW DQG VKXIIOH JDLW UHVXOW LQ VORZ ZDONLQJ VSHHG EXW WKLV JDLW PD\ EH GHVLUDEOH IRU YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR DUH UHOXFWDQW RU IHDUIXO RI VWHSSLQJ RXW EHFDXVH RI LQVXIILHLHQW RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ WHFKQLTXHV S f 6LPLODUO\ D VKRUWHQHG JXDUGHG VWULGH PD\ EH VHHQ LQ D YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDO ZKR LV IHDUIXO RI ZDONLQJ LQWR REMHFWV 7\SLFDOO\ DV RQHnV VSHHG LQFUHDVHV WKH WHQGHQF\ WR YHHU GHFUHDVHV ZKHUHDV D VKRUWHQHG VWULGH ZKLFK WHQGV WR GHFUHDVH ZDONLQJ VSHHG PD\ VHUYH WR LQFUHDVH YHHULQJ $XVW f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

PAGE 19

NLWFKHQ D IURQW \DUG DQG D UHVLGHQWLDO VWUHHW DV ZHOO DV D VXSHUPDUNHW D KRWHO OREE\ D FURZGHG VLGHZDON RU PDOO DQG DQ DLUSRUW WHUPLQDO 7KLV OHYHO RI DQDO\VLV LV SDUWLFXODUO\ LPSRUWDQW IRU WKH PRELOLW\ UHKDELOLWDWLRQ RI YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV EHFDXVH PRELOLW\ LQVWUXFWRUV PXVW SURYLGH WKHVH LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK D PHDQV WR JHW DURXQG WKHLU HQYLURQPHQW &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU FDQ EH GHVFULEHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR ERWK HIILFLHQW DQG VDIH ZDONLQJ $UPVWURQJ f 'LUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\ IRU H[DPSOH GHVFULEHV WKH PDLQWHQDQFH RI VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ IRU SUHVSHFLILHG GLVWDQFHV DQG HIILFLHQW ZDONLQJ LV LQIHUUHG IURP WKLV PHDVXUH %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ f ,PSHGHG ZDONLQJ GHVFULEHV GHFUHDVHV LQ IRUZDUG PRYHPHQW DQG VDIH ZDONLQJ LV LQIHUUHG E\ WKH DEVHQFH RI DEUXSW GHFUHDVHV LQ IRUZDUG PRYHPHQW RU ZDONLQJ VSHHG VXFK DV ZKHQ DQ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQ VWXPEOHV RU FDWFKHV WKH WLS RI KLV RU KHU FDQH %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ f $FFRUGLQJO\ DQ DGHTXDWH PHDVXUH RI GLUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\ PXVW EH VHQVLWLYH WR YHHULQJ LH WKH QXPEHU RI RU WKH GXUDWLRQ RI GHYLDWLRQV IURP D IL[HG FHQWUDO SRLQW RU WKH GLVWDQFH RI ODWHUDO PRYHPHQWf $UPVWURQJ %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ 'RGGV &DUWHU DQG +RZDUWK +RZDUWK +H\HV 'RGGV DQG &DUWHU f ZKHUHDV DQ DGHTXDWH PHDVXUH RI LPSHGHG ZDONLQJ PXVW EH VHQVLWLYH WR FKDQJHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG

PAGE 20

$ FRPPRQ ZD\ LQ ZKLFK PRELOLW\ LQVWUXFWRUV WUDLQ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV LV LQ WKH XVH RI SK\VLFDO VWUXFWXUHV RU ODQGPDUNV DV DLGV IRU RULHQWLQJ ZDONLQJ ZLWKLQ DQ HQYLURQPHQW $OOHQ *ULIILWK t 6KDZ $UPVWURQJ %ODVFK DQG +LDWW %UDI (OLDV +HUPV (OLDV t 5REELQV 7HPSOHU 7HPSOHU t =LPULQJ 7RR]H :DUGHOO f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

PAGE 21

SURYLGH RSWLPDO FRQGLWLRQV IRU VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ GLVFRQWLQXRXV VKRUHOLQHV DUH OHVV WKDQ RSWLPDO %ODVFK t +LDWW f DQG HQYLURQPHQWV ZLWKRXW VKRUHOLQHV LH RSHQ VSDFH DUHDVf RIWHQ UHVXOW LQ GLVRULHQWHG ZDONLQJ $LHOOR t 6WHLQIHOG $OOHQ *ULIILWK t 6KDZ %UDI )RXONH f 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ PRVW VKRUHOLQHV DUH FRQVWUXFWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI DUFKLWHFWXUDO DQG ODQGVFDSLQJ DHVWKHWLFV UDWKHU WKDQ IRU IXQFWLRQDO XVH E\ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV DQG WKXV VKRUHOLQHV DUH RIWHQ GLVFRQWLQXRXV DQG FRPSOH[ 0XFK RI WKH DUFKLWHFWXUDO DQG PRELOLW\ UHVHDUFK KDV H[DPLQHG WKH HIIHFWV RI YDULDWLRQ LQ ZDONLQJ VXUIDFHV DQG VKRUHOLQHV RQ ORFRPRWLRQ LQ FRPSOH[ HQYLURQPHQWV %UDI (OLDV +HUPV HW DO 7HPSOHU f 6HYHUDO VWXGLHV KDYH H[DPLQHG ZDONLQJ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR GLUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\ DQG LPSHGHG ZDONLQJ ,Q RQH VWXG\ D IRRW ORQJ WH[WXUH VWULS ZDV DGGHG WR D FRPPXQLW\ VLGHZDON WR VHUYH DV D FRQWLQXRXV VKRUHOLQH 7HPSOHU f 7KH WH[WXUHG VWULS ZDV D LQFK ZLGH VWULS RI WKLFN UHVLOLHQW SDLQW VLPLODU WR WKDW XVHG WR VXUIDFH RXWGRRU WHQQLV FRXUWV 9LVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG VXEMHFWV ZHUH UHFUXLWHG WR VHUYH LQ WKH VWXG\ +RZHYHU QR LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV SURYLGHG UHJDUGLQJ WKH GHJUHH RI YLVXDO LPSDLUPHQW RU WR WKH PHWKRGV RI VXEMHFW UHFUXLWPHQW $OO VXEMHFWV ZHUH SURYLGHG FDQHV DQG LQVWUXFWHG WR ZDON DORQJ WKH WH[WXUH VWULS DQG WR

PAGE 22

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f ZKLFK ZHUH ORFDWHG DW YDULRXV SRLQWV LQ WKH WHVW DUHD 8QGHU WKH FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQ KRZHYHU DOO EXW RQH VXEMHFW ZDQGHUHG IURP D SURMHFWHG GLUHFW FRXUVH DQG KDG WR FKDQJH GLUHFWLRQ DIWHU HQFRXQWHULQJ VWUHHW REVWDFOHV $OWKRXJK WKH DXWKRU SURYLGHV D VXPPDU\ RI WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKLV VWXG\ VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WKH WH[WXUHG VWULS SURGXFHG HIILFLHQW DQG VDIH ZDONLQJ WKHUH DUH QR TXDQWLILDEOH GDWD SURYLGHG IRU ZLWKLQVXEMHFW FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ WHVW DQG FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQV 'RGGV &DUWHU DQG +RZDUWK f H[DPLQHG WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKUHH REVHUYHUV YLHZLQJ D YLGHR WDSH RI D EOLQG VXEMHFW ,Q WKLV VWXG\ WKUHH LQGHSHQGHQW REVHUYHUV ZHUH UHTXLUHG WR YLHZ WKH PRELOLW\ SHUIRUPDQFH E\ WKH VXEMHFW DQG WR H[DPLQH VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ E\

PAGE 23

FRQWLQXRXVO\ WUDFNLQJ WKH VXEMHFWn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

PAGE 24

HYDOXDWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI VDIHW\ IHDWXUHV VXFK DV ZDONLQJ UHVLVWDQFH VOLSUHVLVWDQFH DQG WULS KD]DUGV 7HPSOHU f (DFK RI WKHVH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV GHVFULEHV KRZ ZDONLQJ FDQ EH LPSHGHG E\ D SDUWLFXODU VKRUHOLQH PDWHULDO ,PSHGHG ZDONLQJ PD\ UHVXOW IURP LUUHJXODULWLHV RU QRQXQLIRUPLW\ LQ VXUIDFH GHVLJQ GLIIHUHQW KHLJKWV ZLWKLQ D SDWWHUQ RI VXUIDFH PDWHULDO RU KHLJKWV EHWZHHQ PDWHULDOV MRLQW ZLGWK RU GHSWK DQG VR RQ 5HVXOWV IURP UHVHDUFK RQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI VXUIDFH PDWHULDOV VXJJHVW WKDW YDULDWLRQV LQ VXUIDFH KHLJKWV DV VPDOO DV RQHKDOI LQFK PPf FDQ LPSHGH IRUZDUG PRWLRQ LQ YLVXDOO\ RU SK\VLFDOO\f LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV $UFKLWHFWXUDO DQG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ %DUULHUV &RPSOLDQFH %RDUG 7HPSOHU f 7R VXPPDUL]H LQ FRQFHSWXDOL]LQJ WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI ZDONLQJ WKHUH DUH WZR OHYHOV RI DQDO\VLV WKDW DUH PRVW RIWHQ FRQVLGHUHG f FRRUGLQDWLRQ RI PRYHPHQWV E\ SDUWV RU SRUWLRQV RI WKH ERG\ DQG f WKH HQWLUH RUJDQLVP PRYLQJ WKURXJK WKH HQYLURQPHQW $W ERWK OHYHOV RI DQDO\VLV WKH YLVXDO V\VWHP LV FULWLFDO LQ WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ DQG PDLQWHQDQFH RI ZDONLQJ KRZHYHU RWKHU W\SHV RI VWLPXOL H[HUW FRQWURO RYHU ZDONLQJ VXFK DV DXGLWRU\ WDFWLOH DQG SURSULRFHSWLYH 7KH UROH RI WKHVH RWKHU VWLPXOL LQ FRQWUROOLQJ ZDONLQJ EHFRPH PRUH SUHGRPLQDQW ZLWK YLVXDO ORVV

PAGE 25

0HWKRGRORJLFDO ,VVXHV LQ WKH $QDO\VLV RI :DONLQJ 7KHUH DUH DW OHDVW WZR PHWKRGRORJLFDO LVVXHV WKDW KDYH KLQGHUHG ERWK SURJUHVV LQ DQ H[SHULPHQWDO DQDO\VLV RI ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU DW ERWK OHYHOV RI DQDO\VLVf DQG WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ HIIHFWLYH WHFKQRORJ\ 7KH ILUVW LVVXH LV WKH DSSDUHQW DEVHQFH RI VWDQGDUGL]HG PHWKRGV IRU PHDVXULQJ ZDONLQJ SHUIRUPDQFHV DQG WKH ODFN RI VWDQGDUGL]HG H[SHULPHQWDO SUHSDUDWLRQV XVHG E\ UHVHDUFKHUV 0RELOLW\ UHVHDUFKHUV DQG PRELOLW\ WUDLQHUV IUHTXHQWO\ DJUHH RQ WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI ZDONLQJ DQG LGHQWLI\ WKLV IDFW DV D UHDVRQ IRU WKH FRQVSLFXRXV DEVHQFH RI VWDQGDUGL]HG REMHFWLYH PHDVXUHV RI ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRUV )RXONH 6WUHORZ %UDE\Q t &ODUN f ,Q UHVSRQVH WR WKHVH PHDVXUHPHQW GLIILFXOWLHV RQH UHVHDUFKHU KDV SURFODLPHG WKDW WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI PRELOLW\ LQ D VFLHQWLILF VHQVH ZDV QRW YLDEOH DQG LQVWHDG KDV XWLOL]HG VXEMHFWLYH UDWLQJ VFDOHV WR HYDOXDWH PRELOLW\ SHUIRUPDQFHV .D\ f 7KH LPSDFW RI WKLV ODFN RI VWDQGDUGL]HG PHDVXUHV RI ZDONLQJ RQ PRELOLW\ UHKDELOLWDWLRQ DQG WHFKQRORJ\ LV UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH IROORZLQJ SDVVDJH WKDW DSSHDUV LQ WKH QDWLRQDO SODQ UHSRUW E\ WKH 3DQHO RQ 9LVXDO ,PSDLUPHQW DQG LWV 5HKDELOLWDWLRQ f 5HVHDUFK LV QHHGHG RQ WKH EDVLF VNLOOV DQG VHQVHV UHODWHG WR PRELOLW\ DQG RULHQWDWLRQ 7KH FRQWULEXWLRQV WR PRELOLW\ RI WKH YDULRXV DWWULEXWHV RI YLVLRQ QHHG WR EH LGHQWLILHG 1R DFFHSWHG PHWKRG H[LVWV IRU HYDOXDWLQJ DQG JUDGLQJ RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ SHUIRUPDQFH

PAGE 26

EXW WKHUH DSSHDUV WR EH FRQVLGHUDEOH SRWHQWLDO IRU GHYHORSLQJ VWDQGDUG WHVWLQJ SURFHGXUHV TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ RU TXDOLWDWLYHO\ JUDGLQJ WKHVH VNLOOV LQ ERWK SDUWLDOO\ VLJKWHG DQG QRQVLJKWHG LQGLYLGXDOV 7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI VXFK PHWKRGV ZRXOG IDFLOLWDWH DQG HQFRXUDJH FRUUHODWLRQV RI YLVXDO IXQFWLRQ ZLWK RWKHU VHQVHV DQG VNLOOV 3f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f VXJJHVWV WKDW UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH EDVHG VWXGLHV RQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW PRYHPHQW LV WKH EDVLV IRU FRJQLWLYH OHDUQLQJ 7KH UHVHDUFK ILQGLQJV UHODWLYH WR PRWRU DFWLYLWLHV LQFUHDVLQJ

PAGE 27

FRJQLWLYH IXQFWLRQLQJ DUH RI WKUHH SULPDU\ W\SHV f FRUUHODWLYH VWXGLHV LQ ZKLFK FRPSDULVRQV DUH PDGH EHWZHHQ PHQWDO DFDGHPLF SHUFHSWXDO DQG PRWRU VFRUHV f H[SHULPHQWDO VWXGLHV LQ ZKLFK SURJUDPV RI SHUFHSWXDO PRWRU HGXFDWLRQ DUH HYDOXDWHG E\ WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKH\ FKDQJH RWKHU DWWULEXWHV DQG f VWXGLHV RI WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SHUFHSWXDOPRWRU FDSDFLWLHV LQ LQIDQWV +DUW f KDV FULWLFL]HG WKH ILQGLQJV IURP VRPH RI WKLV UHVHDUFK RQ WKH EDVLV RI FRQIXVLQJ PHWKRGRORJLFDO DSSURDFKHV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV WRR VKRUW WUDLQLQJ SHULRGV ODFN RI FRQWUROV RI WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV VPDOO QXPEHUV RI VXEMHFWV XQGLIIHUHQWLDWHG VDPSOHV LQDGHTXDWH VWDWLVWLFDO WHFKQLTXHV LQDGHTXDWH UHSRUWLQJ DQG RYHUn LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DQG RYHUJHQHUDOL]DWLRQ RI ILQGLQJV S f +RZHYHU IDXOW\ WKH UHVHDUFK ILQGLQJV VWDWHV +DUW WKH WKHRULHV DUH EHLQJ XVHG DFURVV WKH FRXQWU\ DV WKH EDVLV IRU YDULRXV WUDLQLQJ FXUULFXOD S f 0XFK RI WKH UHVHDUFK OLWHUDWXUH LQ RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ GHVFULEHV FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQV RI ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU E\ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV SULPDULO\ LQ WHUPV RI FRJQLWLRQV RU VFKHPD IRUPHG RU QRW IRUPHGf DQG LQ WHUPV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ 2QH WKHRU\ IRU H[DPSOH GHVFULEHV YDULRXV FRJQLWLYH IHDWXUHV WKDW DUH UHTXLUHG LQ RUGHU IRU DQ\ VHQVRU\ DLG WR HQKDQFH PRELOLW\ SHUIRUPDQFH $Q\ VHQVRU\ DLG WR PRELOLW\ PXVW DOORZ WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI D VSDWLDO SHUFHSW RWKHUZLVH WKH

PAGE 28

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f§RU VSDWLDO LQSXWV IURP RWKHU VHQVHV .D\ SSf 2WKHU PRELOLW\ UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH SURSRVHG VLPLODU WKHRULHV WR DFFRXQW IRU HIILFLHQW DQG VDIH ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU E\ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV HJ )RXONH .D\ 0HWWOHU f $SSDUHQWO\ QRQH RI WKHVH WKHRULHV VHHP WR EH FRPSUHKHQVLYH HQRXJK WR H[SODLQ WKH WRWDO SKHQRPHQRQ RI RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ :HOVK t %ODVFK f DQG RQH UHVHDUFKHU KDV VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH DEVHQFH RI D JHQHUDO WKHRU\ RI PRELOLW\ KDV KLQGHUHG WKH UHILQHPHQW RI WUDLQLQJ PHWKRGV DQG WKH GHVLJQ RI LQVWUXPHQWV LQWHQGHG WR DVVLVW PRELOLW\ )RXONH f ,W LV DUJXHG KHUH WKDW WKHUH LV QRW VR PXFK D QHHG IRU D JHQHUDO WKHRU\ RI PRELOLW\ DV WKHUH LV D QHHG WR LQWHJUDWH VHOHFWHG IRUPV RI H[SHULPHQWDO PHWKRGV DQG PHDVXUHV RI ZDONLQJ LQWR DQ H[LVWLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLYH WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUN RI KXPDQ EHKDYLRU )RU H[DPSOH FRQFHSWXDOL]LQJ ZDONLQJ DV RSHUDQW EHKDYLRU KDV VHYHUDO

PAGE 29

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f 2QH JRRG H[DPSOH RI WKH DGYDQWDJHV RI DGRSWLQJ WKLV PHWKRGRORJLFDO VWUDWHJ\ LQYROYHV D VHULHV RI GHPRQVWUDWLRQV WKDW ZHUH FRQGXFWHG WR H[DPLQH WKH XWLOLW\ RI YDULRXV FRPSXWHUDQDO\]HG PHDVXUHV RI PRELOLW\ %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ f 2QH RI WKHVH GHPRQVWUDWLRQV H[DPLQHG

PAGE 30

ZDONLQJ SHUIRUPDQFHV RI VL[ VXEMHFWV ZDONLQJ VWUDLJKW WRZDUG DQ GHVLJQDWHG WDUJHW XQGHU WKUHH GLIIHUHQW FRQGLWLRQV f VLJKWHG ZDONLQJ f ZDONLQJ ZLWK GHJUDGHG YLVLRQ LQ ZKLFK WKH H[SHULPHQWDO URRP ZDV GDUNHQHG D OLJKW ZDV PRXQWHG DW D KHLJKW RI PHWHUV RQ D SROH DQG D IDFH PDVN RI GLIIXVLQJ JODVV ZDV ZRUQ E\ VXEMHFWV WR UHGXFHG OLJKW SHUFHSWLRQ WR D EOXU H[WHQGLQJ RYHU GHJUHHV RI WKH YLVXDO ILHOG DQG f DXGLWRU\ ZDONLQJ LQ ZKLFK WKH OLJKW GHVFULEHG LPPHGLDWHO\ DERYH ZDV UHSODFHG E\ D PHWURQRPH VHW WR +]f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

PAGE 31

UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH VSDFH ZLWKLQ ZKLFK WKH VXEMHFW PRYHV 6WUHORZ %UDE\Q t &ODUN f 7KH V\VWHP KRZHYHU PD\ KDYH D GUDZEDFN UHJDUGLQJ WKH PHFKDQLFDO VHQVRUV 7KH SRVLWLRQ RI D VXEMHFW LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH VXEMHFWnV GLVWDQFH IURP WZR PHDVXULQJ SRLQWV 7KH DSSDUDWXV XVHG PHDVXUHV WKH OHQJWK RI WZR OLQHV MRLQLQJ WKH VXEMHFW WR WKH WZR PHDVXULQJ SRLQWV LH WKH OLQH WDNHXS UHHOVf 7KH WZR UHHOV DUH SRVLWLRQHG LQ WKH ODERUDWRU\ DW RSSRVLWH HQGV RI D ORQJ ZDOO $ WKLUG OLQH LV DWWDFKHG WR DQRWKHU UHHO LQ WKH PLGGOH RI WKH RSSRVLWH ZDOO DQG DFWV WR EDODQFH WKH SXOO RI WKH VXEMHFW H[HUWHG E\ WKH WZR PHDVXULQJ GUXPV 7KH PHDVXULQJ OLQHV DUH DWWDFKHG WR D FLUFXODU ZDVKHU WKDW LV LQ WXUQ IDVWHQHG WR D PHWHU SROH 7KH SROH LV DWWDFKHG WR D OHDWKHU KDUQHVV WKDW LV ZRUQ RQ WKH VXEMHFWn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t &ODUN

PAGE 32

f $OWKRXJK WKHVH UHVHDUFKHUV UHSRUW WKDW FDUHIXO FDOLEUDWLRQ RI PHFKDQLFDO VHQVRUV ZLOO PLQLPL]H WKH SRVVLELOLW\ LQWURGXFLQJ FRQIRXQGLQJ YDULDEOHV LW VHHPV FOHDU WKDW RWKHU IRUPV RI GLUHFW PHDVXUHPHQW WKDW \LHOG DFFXUDWH PHDVXUHV RI WKH VDPH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV LH GLUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\ DQG ZDONLQJ VSHHGf DQG ZKLFK DUH QRW DWWDFKHG GLUHFWO\ RQWR WKH VXEMHFWnV ERG\ PD\ EH PRUH GHVLUDEOH :KHQ VWDQGDUG PHDVXUHV RI ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DUH XVHG LQ PRELOLW\ UHVHDUFK UHVHDUFKHUV FDQ GHVFULEH SHUIRUPDQFHV E\ VXEMHFWV ZLWK JUHDWHU DFFXUDF\ DV ZHOO DV GUDZ LQIHUHQFHV ZLWK JUHDWHU SUHFLVLRQ )RU H[DPSOH UHGXFWLRQ RI DYHUDJH ZDONLQJ VSHHGV WKH WRWDO SDWK OHQJWK WUDYHUVHG SHU XQLW WLPHf LV D PHDVXUH RI LPSHGHG ZDONLQJ KRZHYHU VRPH UHSRUWV VXJJHVW WKDW VROHO\ LQWHUSUHWLQJ FKDQJHV LQ DYHUDJH VSHHG DV PHDQV WR HYDOXDWH LPSHGHG PRELOLW\ PD\ EH PLVOHDGLQJ %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ 'RGGV HW DO f $ VORZHU VSHHG RI ZDONLQJ IRU H[DPSOH PD\ LQGLFDWH LPSHGHG PRELOLW\ EXW FRPSHWHQW ZDONLQJ LV OLNHO\ WR EH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ PRGHUDWH VSHHG DQG QRW QHFHVVDULO\ WKH PD[LPXP RI ZKLFK D YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDO LV FDSDEOH :LWK UHVSHFW WR WKH HIIHFWV RI YDULRXV WH[WXUHV XVHG LQ FRQWLQXRXV VKRUHOLQHV FKDQJHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG FDQ EH D XVHIXO PHDVXUH RI LPSHGHG ZDONLQJ LI FRQWURO SURFHGXUHV DUH FRQGXFWHG XQGHU WKH PRVW RSWLPDO VKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQV

PAGE 33

%UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ f DQG XQGHU WKH OHDVW RSWLPDO VKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQV 7HPSOHU f 7KH DYHUDJH ZDONLQJ VSHHG JHQHUDWHG XQGHU WKHVH WZR FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQV FDQ EH FRPSDUHG WR WKDW XQGHU YDULRXV WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV $OWKRXJK ZDONLQJ KDV QRW UHFHLYHG H[WHQVLYH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ LQ RSHUDQWEHKDYLRU UHVHDUFK ODERUDWRULHV LW LV SRVVLEOH WR GHVFULEH ZDONLQJ LQ WKH ODQJXDJH FRPPRQ WR RSHUDQW WKHRULVWV DQG UHVHDUFKHUV )RU H[DPSOH LQ GHVFULELQJ KRZ IRUPV RI ZDONLQJ FDQ EH DIIHFWHG E\ HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQVHTXHQFHV 6NLQQHU f VXJJHVWV WKDW LI WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO FRQWLQJHQFLHV FKDQJH WKH WRSRJUDSK\ RI EHKDYLRU FKDQJHV ZLWK WKHP (YHQ WKH YHU\ FRPPRQ UHVSRQVHV ZKLFK HQDEOH XV WR ZDON XSULJKW FRQWLQXH WR EH PRGLILHG E\ WKH HQYLURQPHQW :KHQ ZH ZDON RQ WKH GHFN RI D VKLS DW VHD D VSHFLDO VHW RI FRQWLQJHQFLHV SUHYDLOV LQ PDLQWDLQLQJ RXU RULHQWDWLRQ LQ WKH JUDYLWDWLRQDO ILHOG 7KH QHZ GLIIHUHQWLDO UHLQIRUFHPHQW VHWV XS VHD OHJV $W WKH HQG RI WKH YR\DJH WKH ROG FRQWLQJHQFLHV ZRUN D UHYHUVH FKDQJH S f $ PDMRU LPSOLFDWLRQ RI FRQFHSWXDOL]LQJ ZDONLQJ DV RSHUDQW EHKDYLRU LV WKDW DQ DQDO\VLV RI ZDONLQJ QHFHVVDULO\ H[SDQGV WKH UDQJH RI FRQWUROOLQJ YDULDEOHV H[DPLQHG ,Q WKLV DQDO\VLV WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI ZDONLQJ DUH H[DPLQHG DV ZHOO DV WKH HIIHFWV RI DQWHFHGHQW VWLPXOL RQ ZDONLQJ

PAGE 34

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f 6RPH H[SHULPHQWHUV KDYH QRWHG WKDW ZDONLQJ PRYHPHQWV SURGXFH VWLPXOXV FKDQJHV LQ DQ LQIDQWnV HQYLURQPHQW LH WDFWLOH YLVXDO DXGLWRU\ NLQHVWKHWLFf WKDW GLUHFWO\ UHLQIRUFH ZDONLQJ DQG KDYH VXJJHVWHG WKDW LQVWUXPHQWDO OHDUQLQJ DV ZHOO DV UHIOH[ DFWLYLW\ LV FULWLFDO WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI ZDONLQJ =HOD]R =HOD]R t .ROE f +RZDUG DQG 7HPSOHWRQ f VXJJHVW WKDW VSDWLDO EHKDYLRU LV QRW RQO\ FRQGLWLRQHG E\ ZD\V LQ ZKLFK WKH ERG\ LV FRQVWUXFWHG DQG PRYHV EXW DOVR E\ WKH QDWXUH RI WKH SK\VLFDO ZRUOG LQ ZKLFK WKH ERG\ PRYHV 7KXV IURP DQ RSHUDQWEHKDYLRU SHUVSHFWLYH RI ZDONLQJ DQ H[SDQGHG IRUP RI DQDO\VLV DW WKLV OHYHO VKRXOG H[DPLQH

PAGE 35

WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI ZDONLQJ LH WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI HDFK PRYHPHQW RU VWHS SRVWXUH RU JDLW DV ZHOO DV VWLPXOXV FRQGLWLRQV XQGHU ZKLFK SDUWLFXODU FRQVHTXHQFHV FRQWURO WKHVH EHKDYLRUVf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f 7KH FRQWLQJHQFLHV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU ZDONLQJ KRZHYHU FKDQJH FRQVLGHUDEO\ ZKHQ YLVXDO VWLPXODWLRQ IURP SK\VLFDO REMHFWV LV QR ORQJHU SRVVLEOH 8QGHU WKHVH FLUFXPVWDQFHV WKH QDWXUH RI VWLPXOXV FRQWURO LV SULPDULO\ XQGHU DXGLWRU\ DQG WDFWXDO VWLPXODWLRQ DV ZHOO DV XQGHU SURSULRFHSWLYH VWLPXODWLRQ 3HHO :HOVK t %ODVFK f 2ULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\

PAGE 36

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f PHWKRGRORJ\ DQG VWDQGDUGL]HG PHDVXUHV RI ZDONLQJ f LQWHJUDWLRQ RI UHVHDUFK IURP WZR OHYHOV RI DQDO\VLV DQG f UHKDELOLWDWLRQ DQG WHFKQRORJ\ LQ WKH ILHOG RI RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ 5DWKHU WKDQ LQYRNLQJ D QHZ WKHRU\ RI ZDONLQJ WKH SUHYLRXV UHYLHZ GHVFULEHV WKH H[SDQVLRQ RI DQ RSHUDQWEHKDYLRU SHUVSHFWLYH DQG PHWKRGRORJ\ WR WKH DQDO\VLV RI ZDONLQJ 2QH RI WKH KLJKHVW IRUPV RI LQWHJUDWLRQ LQ VFLHQFH RFFXUV ZKHQ UHVHDUFKHUV UHFRJQL]H VLPLODULWLHV LQ WKH UHOHYDQW YDULDEOHV EHWZHHQ H[SHULPHQWV LQ RQH ILHOG DQG RWKHU H[SHULPHQWV LQ DQ DSSDUHQWO\ UHPRWH DUHD RI UHVHDUFK 6LGPDQ f )RU H[DPSOH GHWHFWLRQ UHVHDUFK ZKLFK LV W\SLFDOO\ WKH GRPDLQ RI WKH SV\FKRSK\VLFDO ODERUDWRU\f KDV PHUJHG ZLWK VWLPXOXV FRQWURO DQG EHKDYLRU DFTXLVLWLRQ UHVHDUFK ZKLFK LV WKH GRPDLQ RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO DQDO\VLV RI EHKDYLRUf DQG WKH UHVXOW RI WKLV LQWHJUDWLRQ

PAGE 37

LV D VRSKLVWLFDWHG DQDO\VLV DQG WHFKQRORJ\ IRU WKH GHWHFWLRQ RI VPDOO WXPRU VLPXODWLRQV LQ D OLIHOLNH PRGHO RI D KXPDQ EUHDVW 3HQQ\SDFNHU f 7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ WKHUHIRUH DGGUHVVHV VRPH RI WKH PHWKRGRORJLFDO LVVXHV LQ RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ UHVHDUFK DQG DGGUHVVHV WKH LVVXHV WKDW DULVH IURP FRQFHSWXDOL]LQJ ZDONLQJ DV RSHUDQW EHKDYLRU 7KH IROORZLQJ H[SHULPHQWV H[DPLQH WKH HIIHFWV RI GLIIHUHQW JURXQG VXUIDFHV WKDW DIIHFW ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU LQ YLVXDOO\ UHVWULFWHG SHUVRQV 7KHUH DUH WZR UHDVRQV IRU FRQGXFWLQJ H[SHULPHQWV RQ WKLV SDUWLFXODU WRSLF )LUVW PDQ\ PRELOLW\ UHVHDUFKHUV DQG UHKDELOLWDWLRQ VSHFLDOLVWV KDYH LGHQWLILHG WKH QHHG IRU DQG WKH SRWHQWLDO RI PRGLI\LQJ JURXQG VXUIDFHV WR DLG YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV LQ HIILFLHQW DQG VDIH ZDONLQJ SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ FRPSOH[ HQYLURQPHQWDO VHWWLQJV $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH QDWLRQDO SODQ UHSRUW E\ WKH 3DQHO RQ 9LVXDO ,PSDLUPHQW DQG LWV 5HKDELOLWDWLRQ f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f

PAGE 38

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f GHYHORSV D PHDVXUHPHQW V\VWHP WR FRPSDUH ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRUV HQJHQGHUHG E\ YDULRXV JURXQG VXUIDFHV DQG f EHJLQV WR LQWHJUDWH WKH UHVXOWV DQG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV IURP WKLV UHVHDUFK LQWR D EHKDYLRU DQDO\WLF IUDPHZRUN VLPLODU

PAGE 39

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

PAGE 40

(;3(5,0(17 21( ,QWURGXFWLRQ 3UHYLRXV UHVHDUFK RQ WKH HIIHFWV RI ZDONLQJVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV DV D PRELOLW\ DLG IRU YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV KDV H[DPLQHG HLWKHU VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ PHDVXUHG E\ YLVXDO REVHUYHUV UHFRUGLQJ SDWK GHYLDWLRQV RU LPSHGHG ZDONLQJ PHDVXUHG E\ YLVXDO REVHUYHUV UHFRUGLQJ WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI FDQH RU ERG\ FRQWDFW ZLWK VWUHHW REVWDFOHV 7HPSOHU f 2WKHU VWXGLHV KDYH GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH XWLOLW\ RI D FRPSXWHUL]HG PHDVXUHPHQW V\VWHP WR H[DPLQH VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ FKDQJHV LQ SDWK GHYLDWLRQV DQG FKDQJHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG KRZHYHU WKHVH GHPRQVWUDWLRQV GLG QRW LQFOXGH D H[DPLQDWLRQ RI WKH HIIHFWV RI YDULRXV ZDONLQJVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV RQ WKHVH WZR PHDVXUHV RI ZDONLQJ %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ f 7KH ILUVW H[SHULPHQW VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ H[DPLQHG FKDQJHV LQ GLUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\ DQG FKDQJHV LQ IRUZDUG VSHHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI FKDQJHV LQ IRXU ZDONLQJ VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV 7ZR RI WKH IRXU ZDONLQJVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH FRQWURO SURFHGXUHV DQG WZR FRQVLVWHG RI YDULHG WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV 7KH ILUVW FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQ ZDV D FRQWLQXRXV rVKRUHOLQH WKDW ZDV XVHG WR VLPXODWH D r MXQFWLRQ IRUPHG EHWZHHQ D ZDOO DQG D VLGHZDON 6XFK

PAGE 41

FRQGLWLRQV JHQHUDOO\ SURGXFH VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ DQG IRUZDUG VSHHGV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI PRELOLW\ XQGHU RSWLPDO FRQGLWLRQV %ODVFK t +LDWW %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ 7HPSOHU f 7KH VHFRQG FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQ ZDV D VPRRWK RSHQ VXUIDFH LH QR MRLQWV RU VXUIDFH YDULDWLRQf WKDW KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR UHVXOW LQ SRRU PRELOLW\ SHUIRUPDQFH DQG JUHDWHU SDWK GHYLDWLRQV LQ FRPSDULVRQ WR WKRVH SHUIRUPDQFHV SURGXFHG E\ FRQWLQXRXV VKRUHOLQHV $LHOOR t 6WHLQIHOG $UFKLWHFWXUDO DQG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ %DUULHUV &RPSOLDQFH %RDUG %UDI 7HPSOHU f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f WH[WXUHG ZDONLQJ VXUIDFHV PD\ LPSHGH ZDONLQJ DV LQGLFDWHG E\ UHGXFWLRQV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV 7HPSOHU f 7KLV H[SHULPHQW DGGUHVVHG WZR TXHVWLRQV 7KH ILUVW TXHVWLRQ ZDV FRQFHUQHG ZLWK KRZ ZDONLQJ E\ YLVXDOO\ UHVWULFWHG VXEMHFWV XQGHU WKH FRQWURO RI WH[WXUHG VWLPXOL RI GLIIHULQJ KHLJKWV

PAGE 42

FRPSDUHG WR ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU XQGHU WKH FRQWURO RI D r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n FPf LQ KHLJKW 6XEMHFW ZDV D \HDUROG IHPDOH DQG ZDV n FPf LQ KHLJKW DQG 6XEMHFW ZDV D \HDUROG PDOH DQG ZDV n FPf LQ KHLJKW 1RQH RI WKH VXEMHFWV KDG YLVXDO GHILFLWV RU ZRUH FRUUHFWLYH OHQVHV $GGLWLRQDOO\ QRQH KDG UHFHLYHG IRUPDO WUDLQLQJ LQ WKH DUHD RI YLVXDO LPSDLUPHQWV FDQH XVH RU RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ ,Q RUGHU WR HOLPLQDWH YLVLRQ RQH FP [ FP DGKHVLYH H\H RFFOXVRU &RYHUOHWf ZDV SODFHG RYHU HDFK FORVHG H\H RI WKH VXEMHFWV $ SDLU RI RSWLFDO OLJKWEORFN JODVVHV ZHUH DOVR ZRUQ E\ WKH VXEMHFWV 7KHVH JODVVHV ZHUH

PAGE 43

FRQVWUXFWHG RI D EODFN RSDTXH IOH[LEOH SODVWLF ZLWK FLUFXODU VWULSV RI IRDP WKDW ILW VQXJ DJDLQVW HDFK H\H ZKHQ DQ HODVWLF VWUDS ZDV WLJKWHQHG DURXQG WKH EDFN RI WKH VXEMHFWnV KHDG 6XEMHFWV UHSRUWHG WKDW WKH ILW ZDV FRPIRUWDEOH DQG WKDW WKH\ FRXOG QRW VHH DQ\WKLQJ IROORZLQJ WKLV SUHSDUDWLRQ 7KH H[SHULPHQWDO SUHSDUDWLRQV IRU WKHVH VXEMHFWV LQ VRPH ZD\V DUH VLPLODU DOWKRXJK WHPSRUDU\ WR WKRVH FRQGLWLRQV HQFRXQWHUHG E\ SHUVRQV ZLWK DFFLGHQWDO FRPSOHWH YLVXDO ORVV %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ 2OVRQ :HOVK f (DFK VXEMHFW DOVR ZRUH HDU SOXJV LQ RUGHU WR DWWHQXDWH H[WUDQHRXV VRXQGV WKDW PD\ FRQWULEXWH WR RULHQWDWLRQ RU SURGXFH UHVXOWV WKDW PD\ FRQIRXQG WKH WDFWLOH FRQWURO SURGXFHG E\ YDULRXV VXUIDFHV 6XEMHFWV ZHUH SURYLGHG D URXQGWLSSHG PP GLDPHWHUf DOXPLQXP FDQH ILWWHG LQ OHQJWK IRU SHUVRQV EHWZHHQ n FPf DQG n FPf ZKLFK LV WKH DSSUR[LPDWH GLVWDQFH IURP WKH WLS RI WKH FDQH WRXFKLQJ WKH IORRU WR WKH WRS RI WKH KDQGOH WRXFKLQJ WKH VXEMHFWnV EUHDVW ERQH 6XEMHFWV ZRUH UXEEHU WHQQLV VKRHV DQG HDFK VXEMHFW ZRUH WKH VDPH SDLU RI VKRHV IRU WKH GXUDWLRQ RI WKH H[SHULPHQW $SSDUDWXV )LJXUH VKRZV D YHUWLFDO VHFWLRQ RI D GHWHFWLRQ SDQHO FRQVWUXFWHG WR UHFRUG SUHVVXUH H[HUWHG E\ VXEMHFWV DV WKH\ WUDYHUVHG WKH H[SHULPHQWDO SDWK 7KH OHQJWK PHWHUVf DQG WKH ZLGWK PHWHUVf RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO SDWK SURYLGHG

PAGE 44

),*85( $ YHUWLFDO FURVVVHFWLRQ YLHZ RI D GHWHFWLRQ SDQHO PHWHU [ PHWHUf

PAGE 45

5(/$< 6:,7&+(6 58%%(5 7,/( $&5
PAGE 46

XWLOL]DWLRQ RI WKH PD[LPXP DPRXQW RI VSDFH IRU H[DPLQLQJ ZDONLQJ SHUIRUPDQFHV ZLWKLQ WKH OLPLWDWLRQV RI WKH GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO URRP PHWHUV [ PHWHUVf 'HWHFWLRQ SDQHOV PHWHU [ PHWHUf ZHUH FRQVWUXFWHG E\ VHFXULQJ SUHVVXUHVHQVLWLYH 7DSHVZLWFK XQGHUUXJf IOH[LEOH UHOD\ VZLWFKHV WR D VPRRWK WLOH IORRU DQG SODFLQJ DFU\OLF VKHHWV RYHU WKH UXQQHUV 7KH UHOD\ VZLWFKHV ZHUH FRQQHFWHG E\ JDXJH HOHFWULFDO ZLUH WR WUDQVIRUPHUV WKDW DFWLYDWHG WKH UXQQLQJ WLPH PHWHUV 'HWHFWLRQ SDQHOV ZHUH SODFHG QH[W WR RQH DQRWKHU WR IRUP WKUHH DGMDFHQW VWUDLJKW SDWKZD\V PHWHUV [ PHWHUf DQG ZHUH ZLUHG WRJHWKHU IRUPLQJ D VHULHV RI SDQHOV WR PHDVXUH WKH WRWDO WLPH VSHQW RQ DQ\ RI WKH WKUHH SDWKZD\V f WKH FHQWUDO VHULHV GHWHFWHG SUHVVXUH H[HUWHG E\ VXEMHFWV ZDONLQJ RQ WKH FHQWUDO VHULHV XQGHU WKH YDULRXV VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV WHVWHG f WKH ULJKW VHULHV GHWHFWHG SUHVVXUH H[HUWHG E\ VXEMHFWV YHHULQJ WR WKH ULJKW RI WKH FHQWUDO VHULHV DQG f WKH OHIW VHULHV GHWHFWHG SUHVVXUH H[HUWHG E\ VXEMHFWV YHHULQJ WR WKH OHIW RI WKH FHQWUDO VHULHV )LJXUH VKRZV WKH H[SHULPHQWDO SDWK OD\RXW DQG HOHFWURPHFKDQLFDO HTXLSPHQW SODFHPHQW 7KH ZLGWK RI WKH FHQWUDO VHULHV PHWHUVf ZDV VLPLODU WR WKDW GHVFULEHG E\ 3HHO f DV D ZLGWK WKDW ZRXOG SHUPLW VXEMHFWV WR HPLW WKH FRUUHFW DUF ZLGWK DQG H[WHQW RI FDQH FRQWDFW 3HHO VSHFLILFDOO\ GHVFULEHV WKH RULJLQ RI WKLV GLVWDQFH DV WKH ODWHUDO OLPLW RI WKH FDQHnV VZLQJ KDOI RI WKH PHDQ RI WKH

PAGE 47

),*85( 3DWK OD\RXW DQG SODFHPHQW RI GHWHFWLRQ SDQHOV WLPH PHWHUV UHVSRQVH FRXQWHUV DQG HOHFWURPHFKDQLFDO HTXLSPHQW

PAGE 48

0(7(56 67$57 6:,7&+ 3$'6 0(7(56 ? ? ? ? ? Ur 67$57 6:,7&+ 3$'6 3/$&(0(17 2) r 6+25(/,1( 32:(5 6285&( 7,0(5 D 5(63216( &2817(56 5811,1* 7,0( 0(7(56

PAGE 49

PDOH SRSXODWLRQnV VKRXOGHU ZLGWK SOXV FP RU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ FP IURP WKH FHQWHU RI WKH SDWKZD\f 2QH RI WKH GHSHQGHQW PHDVXUHV WKH GXUDWLRQ RI WLPH VSHQW E\ VXEMHFWV RQ HDFK RI WKH SDQHO VHULHV ZDV UHFRUGHG GLUHFWO\ E\ HODSVHG WLPH PHWHUV FRQQHFWHG WR HDFK VHULHV RI SDQHOV ,I VXEMHFWV VWHSSHG RQ WZR DGMDFHQW VHULHV ZLWK RQH IRRW VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ WKHQ WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ HODSVHG WLPH PHWHUV ZHUH RSHUDWHG DV ORQJ DV SUHVVXUH ZDV DSSOLHG WR WKH IOH[LEOH UHOD\ VZLWFKHV 7ZR VHWV RI FP [ FP VWDUW VZLWFK SDGV /DID\HWWH 0RGHO f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f DQG ZHUH XVHG WR FDOFXODWH WKH DYHUDJH VSHHG RI HDFK PHWHU SDQHO OHQJWK ZDONHG E\ VXEMHFWV :DONLQJ VSHHG ZDV GHILQHG DV WKH QXPEHU RI RQH PHWHU SDQHO OHQJWKV WUDYHUVHG IRU WKH WRWDO GXUDWLRQ RI WULDO 7XUQDURXQG WLPH WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH VXEMHFWV VSHQW RII HLWKHU HQG RI WKH SDWKZD\ LQ RUGHU WR WXUQDURXQG DQG WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ RQ WKH H[WUHPH ULJKW RU OHIW VLGHV ZHUH

PAGE 50

LQFOXGHG LQ FDOFXODWLQJ ZDONLQJ VSHHGf 7KH GXUDWLRQ RI HDFK WULDO ZDV FRQWUROOHG E\ D WLPHU WKDW ZDV RSHUDWHG ZKHQ WKH VXEMHFWV VWHSSHG IURP WKH FP [ FP VWDUW VZLWFK SDG /DID\HWWH 0RGHO f ORFDWHG EHIRUH SDQHO RI WKH FHQWUDO SDWKZD\ 7KH FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKLV VWDUW VZLWFK SDG DQG WKH WLPHU SDVVHG WKURXJK DQ DGDSWRU VZLWFK /DID\HWWH 0RGHO $6f WKDW SHUPLWWHG VZLWFK RSHQLQJ UDWKHU WKDQ D VZLWFK FORVXUH WR DFWLYDWH WKH WLPHU 3ULRU WR HDFK VHVVLRQ WKH UHFRUGLQJ HTXLSPHQW ZDV FDOLEUDWHG E\ WKH H[SHULPHQWHU E\ ZDONLQJ WKH OHQJWK RI HDFK VHULHV WKUHH WLPHV (DFK VWHS ZDV SODFHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ LQ WKH PLGGOH RI HDFK GHWHFWLRQ SDQHO DQG DOORZLQJ RQO\ RQH VWHS SHU SDQHO (DFK HODSVHG WLPH PHWHU ZDV FRPSDUHG IROORZLQJ WKLV SURFHGXUH WR HQVXUH WKDW WKH WLPHV ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ HTXDO LH FORFN WLPHV ZHUH ZLWKLQ VHFRQGV RI HDFK RWKHUf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

PAGE 51

UHDVRQ WR H[SHFW WKH WLPHV WR EH H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH EHFDXVH WKHUH LV QR UHDVRQ WR DVVXPH WKDW WKH H[SHULPHQWHU ZDONHG RQ HDFK VHULHV SUHFLVHO\ DW WKH VDPH VSHHG $ PRUH SUHFLVH FDOLEUDWLRQ PHWKRG ZRXOG LQYROYH XVLQJ D PRYLQJ REMHFW WKDW f ZHLJKV DQ DPRXQW VXIILFLHQW WR DFWLYDWH WKH UHOD\ VZLWFKHV FRQWUROOLQJ WKH WLPHUV f PRYHV DW D FRQVWDQW VSHHG DQG f FRQWDLQV DQ LQWHUQDO FORFN WKDW FDQ EH XVHG JHQHUDWH YDOXHV WR FRPSDUH WR WKRVH IURP WKH YDULRXV WLPH PHWHUV 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ DW WKH WLPH ([SHULPHQWV DQG ZHUH FRQGXFWHG QR VXFK REMHFW ZDV DYDLODEOHf 3URFHGXUH 7KURXJKRXW ([SHULPHQW VPRRWK WLOHV ZHUH VHFXUHG RQWR HDFK GHWHFWLRQ SDQHO RI WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHO VHULHV DQG WLOHV RQ WKH FHQWUDO VHULHV ZHUH HLWKHU WH[WXUHG RU VPRRWK GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFWV ZHUH H[SRVHG WR IRXU ZDONLQJVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV ZKLFK DUH LOOXVWUDWHG LQ )LJXUH 7KH IRXU H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH DV IROORZV &RQWLQXRXV rVKRUHOLQH 7KLV FRQGLWLRQ VHUYHG DV RQH RI WZR FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQV 7KH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH FRYHUHG ZLWK D VPRRWK UXEEHU VXUIDFH DQG OLQHG RQ ERWK VLGHV ZLWK ZRRG SDQHOV 7KLV DUUDQJHPHQW SURYLGHG D FRQWLQXRXV r VKRUHOLQH PHWHUV ORQJf RQ HLWKHU VLGH RI WKH FHQWUDO SDWKZD\ 7KH KHLJKW RI WKH VKRUHOLQH ZDV FP IURP WKH UXEEHUVXUIDFH EDVH RI WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV 7KH KHLJKW RI WKLV VKRUHOLQH FRUUHVSRQGV WR WKH DSSUR[LPDWH KHLJKW RI D FRYH EDVH W\SLFDOO\ DWWDFKHG WR ZDOOV DW SRLQW ZKHUH D ZDOO DEXWV D IORRU $ ZRRGHQ VKRUHOLQH LV RQH RI WKH PRVW HIIHFWLYH HQYLURQPHQWDO GHVLJQV IRU VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ %ODVFK t +LDWW f

PAGE 52

),*85( $ KRUL]RQDO FURVVVHFWLRQ RI WKH OHIW FHQWHU DQG ULJKW SDQHO VHULHV XQGHU HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ QRW GUDZQ WR VFDOHf

PAGE 53

60227+

PAGE 54

6PRRWK VXUIDFH 7KLV VHUYHG DV WKH VHFRQG FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQ 7KH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH FRYHUHG ZLWK WKH VDPH VPRRWK UXEEHU VXUIDFH DV WKRVH DWWDFKHG WR WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHOV \LHOGLQJ D PHWHU ZLGH VPRRWK VLQJOH SDWK 7H[WXUHG VXUIDFH 7KHUH ZHUH WZR WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV PP WH[WXUH 8QGHU WKLV FRQGLWLRQ WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH FRYHUHG ZLWK UDLVHG UXEEHU FLUFXODU VXUIDFHV PP LQ KHLJKW PP LQ GLDPHWHU DQG VSDFHG PP IURP RWKHU DGMDFHQW UDLVHG UXEEHU VXUIDFHV PP WH[WXUH 8QGHU WKLV FRQGLWLRQ WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH FRYHUHG ZLWK UDLVHG UXEEHU FLUFXODU VXUIDFHV PP LQ KHLJKW PP LQ GLDPHWHU DQG VSDFHG PP IURP RWKHU DGMDFHQW UDLVHG UXEEHU VXUIDFHV )RU ERWK WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV WKH KHLJKW RI WKH WLOH EDVH LH H[FOXGLQJ WKH KHLJKW RI WKH UDLVHG UXEEHU FLUFXODU VXUIDFHVf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

PAGE 55

DJDLQ WXUQ DURXQG
PAGE 56

7DEOH 6XPPDU\ RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV LQ RUGHUf IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG ZLWK WKH QXPEHU RI WULDOV XQGHU HDFK FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW ([SHULPHQWDO &RQGLWLRQ RI 7ULDOV r PP PP 6PRRWK PP PP r 6PRRWK r 6PRRWK PP PP 6PRRWK PP PP r 6PRRWK PP PP r 6PRRWK PP PP r

PAGE 57

PHDVXUH XQGHU HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQf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rVKRUHOLQH 5HVXOWV $OO VXEMHFWV JHQHUDOO\ ZDONHG EDFN DQG IRUWK RQ WKH SDWKZD\ DW GLIIHUHQW VSHHGV GHSHQGLQJ XSRQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ XQGHU H[DPLQDWLRQ 7LPH VSHQW RQ WKH FHQWUDO

PAGE 58

SDQHOV ZDV KLJKHVW XQGHU WKH rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ DQG ORZHVW XQGHU WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ IRU DOO VXEMHFWV 5HSODFHPHQW RI WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZLWK HLWKHU WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH UHVXOWHG LQ D UHGXFWLRQ LQ WLPH VSHQW RQ WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHOV DQG LQFUHDVHG WLPH RQ WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV IRU DOO VXEMHFWV ZKHQ WKH r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rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW ZHUH EHWZHHQ DQG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH IRU WKH ILUVW WULDOV DQG ZDONLQJ VSHHGV LQFUHDVHG RYHU WKH UHPDLQLQJ WULDOV UHDFKLQJ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH GXULQJ WKH ODVW WULDOV )LJXUH WRS SRUWLRQf ,Q FRQWUDVW ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH EHWZHHQ DQG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH IRU WKH ILUVW WULDOV UHDFKLQJ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH IRU WKH UHPDLQLQJ WULDOV XQGHU WKLV FRQGLWLRQ 8QGHU ERWK H[SRVXUHV WR WKH VPRRWK

PAGE 59

VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH 8QGHU WKH PP WH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU WKLV VXEMHFW LQFUHDVHG WR OHYHOV VLPLODU WR WKRVH XQGHU WKH r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rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ WKHUH ZHUH QR GLVFHUQLEOH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV EHWZHHQ WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH GLIIHUHQW H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV IRU 6XEMHFW )RU 6XEMHFW ZDONLQJ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH KLJKHVW XQGHU WKH rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ DYHUDJLQJ VHFRQGV GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DQG VHFRQGV GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH )LJXUH PLGGOH

PAGE 60

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

PAGE 61

68%-(&7 r M r 60227+ PP PP 727$/ 75,$/6 60227+ PP ‘ ‘ ’ ‘ b ’ PPP L ‘ ’ X ‘ b ‘ PP ‘‘‘‘‘ ’ ’ ’ 6800$5< 75,$/6

PAGE 62

SRUWLRQf 8QGHU WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV IRU 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG WR DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf DQG DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf DQG WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHOV ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO :KHQ D PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH ZDV SODFHG RQ WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV 6XEMHFW DOORFDWHG DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf DQG DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ,Q FRPSDULVRQ WR WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUHG VXUI DFH FRQGLWLRQ GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH 6XEMHFW DOORFDWHG OHVV WLPH RQ WKH OHIW SDQHOV IURP VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf DQG DOORFDWHG VOLJKWO\ PRUH WLPH RQ WKH ULJKW SDQHOV IURP VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ WKLV VXEMHFW DOORFDWHG DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV ZDONLQJ WLPH WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV GXULQJ WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUHV 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG WKH DYHUDJH WLPH DOORFDWHG WR WKH OHIW SDQHOV IURP VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf DQG GHFUHDVHG WKH DYHUDJH WLPH DOORFDWHG WR WKH ULJKW SDQHOV IURP VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf %HFDXVH WKH rVKRUHOLQH UHVWULFWHG DOO ZDONLQJ E\ VXEMHFWV WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ XQGHU WKH rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQV LQGLFDWH

PAGE 63

WXUQDURXQG WLPH H[FOXVLYHO\ 6XEMHFW VSHQW DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV DQG VHFRQGV RII WKH SDWKZD\ GXULQJ WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ UHVSHFWLYHO\ )LJXUH ERWWRP SRUWLRQf 8QGHU WKH VPRRWK VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ WKLV VXEMHFW VSHQW PRUH WLPH RII WKH SDQHOV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf DQG WKHVH WLPH YDOXHV ZHUH PRUH YDULDEOH WKDQ WKRVH XQGHU WKH RWKHU FRQGLWLRQV 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH VSHQW RII WKH SDWKZD\ XQGHU ERWK H[SRVXUHV WR WKH PP DQG XQGHU WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf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rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ DYHUDJHG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH IRU WKH ILUVW ILYH WULDOV DQG LQFUHDVHG WR DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH IRU WKH UHPDLQLQJ HLJKW WULDOV )LJXUH WRS SRUWLRQf :KHQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW LQFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\ WR DQ DYHUDJH RI

PAGE 64

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f ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW DYHUDJHG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH IRU WKH ILUVW HOHYHQ WULDOV DQG WKHQ GHFUHDVHG WR DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH IRU WKH ODVW QLQH WULDOV :KHQ WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW LQFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\ WR DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH ,QWURGXFLQJ WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ILUVW H[SRVXUHf IRU WKLV VXEMHFW UHVXOWHG LQ VLPLODU ZDONLQJ VSHHGV WR WKRVH XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWHf :KHQ WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG WKLV VXEMHFW VKRZHG DQ DEUXSW LQFUHDVH LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV VLPLODU WR WKDW GHVFULEHG IRU WKH ILUVW VXEMHFW 6XEMHFW ZDONHG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH LQ WKH ILUVW WULDO DQG WKHQ LQFUHDVHG ZDONLQJ VSHHGV WR DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH IRU WKH UHPDLQLQJ WHQ WULDOV

PAGE 65

),*85( 6XPPDU\ GDWD IRU 6XEMHFW 7KH WRS SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH QXPEHU RI RQHPHWHU SDQHO OHQJWKV ZDONHG SHU PLQXWH IURP DOO WULDOV 7KH PLGGOH SRUWLRQ VKRZV PHDQ ZDONLQJ WLPH RQ SDQHOV 7KH ERWWRP SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH WKH VXEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\

PAGE 66

68%-(&7 727$/ 75,$/6 60227+ PP PP /&5 / & )W /&5 60227+ PP PP Â’ LQ WL P R R Â’ -LQ P [ P G [ 2 f' FQ 2 FQ MM P P 6800$5< 75,$/6

PAGE 67

:LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI WKH ZDONLQJ VSHHGV XQGHU WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW ZHUH KLJKHU XQGHU WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH YDULRXV H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV WKDQ XQGHU WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH )RU 6XEMHFW ZDONLQJ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV DYHUDJHG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DQG LQFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\ WR DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH r VKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ )LJXUH PLGGOH SRUWLRQf 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ILUVW H[SRVXUHf WKLV VXEMHFW DOORFDWHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV DQG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKLV VDPH FRQGLWLRQ 7KHVH GHFUHDVHV LQ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ LQFUHDVHV LQ DYHUDJH WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH OHIW SDQHOV IURP VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGVf DQG WR WKH ULJKW SDQHOV IURP VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGVf 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW DOORFDWHG DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DQG DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH 7KHVH LQFUHDVHV LQ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ GHFUHDVHV LQ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH OHIW SDQHOV IURP VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf DQG E\ D GHFUHDVH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQG SHU WULDOf LQ WKH DYHUDJH WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ )LJXUH ERWWRP SRUWLRQf :DONLQJ WLPHV

PAGE 68

DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH ORZHVW XQGHU WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ FHQWUDO SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV IRU WKLV VXEMHFW LQFUHDVHG WR DQ DYHUDJH RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ZKHUHDV WKH DYHUDJH WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH OHIW SDQHOV GHFUHDVHG IURP VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WUDLO DQG DYHUDJH WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH ULJKW SDQHOV GHFUHDVHG IURP VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO 6XEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ WKH JUHDWHVW DPRXQW RI WLPH XQGHU WKH VPRRWK VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf $YHUDJH ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW XQGHU ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH )LJXUH WRS SRUWLRQf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

PAGE 69

),*85( 6XPPDU\ GDWD IRU 6XEMHFW 7KH WRS SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH QXPEHU RI RQHPHWHU SDQHO OHQJWKV ZDONHG SHU PLQXWH IURP DOO WULDOV 7KH PLGGOH SRUWLRQ VKRZV PHDQ ZDONLQJ WLPH RQ SDQHOV 7KH ERWWRP SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH WKH VXEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\

PAGE 70

68%-(&7 /8 L 4 2& FF 84 /8 Zr ] rL &/ K /8 &' &4 /8 r 60227+ PP PP ‘mAU Ln ’ MK6tQ6: b 727$/ 75,$/6 Rr A/8 :FR L 60227+ PP PP /8 ] /8 2 /8 &2 &/ R /8 60227+ D L PP Uf?U?^ P ’ ’ ? 0 Q3? ’ ’ PP 6800$5< 75,$/6

PAGE 71

VXEMHFW LQFUHDVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH 5HLQVWDWLQJ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ IRU WKLV VXEMHFW UHVXOWHG LQ YDULDEOH DQG JHQHUDOO\ KLJKHU ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWHVf )RU 6XEMHFW ZDONLQJ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH KLJKHVW XQGHU WKH rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ DYHUDJLQJ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DQG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH )LJXUH PLGGOH SRUWLRQf ,Q FRQWUDVW FHQWUDO SDQHO DOORFDWLRQ WLPHV IRU 6XEMHFW ZHUH ORZHU XQGHU ILUVW H[SRVXUH VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf DQG ORZHU VWLOO XQGHU WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf WR WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ $GGLWLRQDOO\ PHDQ ZDONLQJ WLPH RQ DOO SDQHOV IRU 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZKLFK LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKLV VXEMHFW VSHQW QHDUO\ DV PXFK WLPH RII DOO WKUHH SDQHO VHULHV DV RQ WKHP 7KHVH LQFUHDVHV LQ WLPHV RII WKH SDQHOV EHWZHHQ WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ DUH VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH ERWWRP SRUWLRQf 'XULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDQHOV DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO :KHQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ E\ WKLV VXEMHFW LQFUHDVHG WR DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG WKH UDQJH RI YDULDELOLW\ LQFUHDVHG DV ZHOO 8QGHU WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV IRU 6XEMHFW

PAGE 72

LQFUHDVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV GHFUHDVHG WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO UHVSHFWLYHO\ )LJXUH ERWWRP SRUWLRQf VKRZV DQ XSZDUG WUHQG LQ WKH WLPH RII WKH SDQHOV GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUHG VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ DYHUDJLQJ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG UDQJLQJ IURP VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ WLPH DOORFDWLRQV WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV E\ 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG IURP VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV WR WKH ULJKW SDQHOV GHFUHDVHG RQ WKH DYHUDJH IURP VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG WLPH DOORFDWLRQV WR WKH OHIW SDQHOV LQFUHDVHG RQ WKH DYHUDJH IURP VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH WLPH RII WKH SDQHOV LQFUHDVHG IURP DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO :KHQ WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZDV LQWURGXFHG WR 6XEMHFW FHQWUDO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV LQFUHDVHG WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf DQG WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf )RU 6XEMHFW GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ WLPH DOORFDWLRQV WR WKH OHIW SDQHOV GHFUHDVHG IURP VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG WLPH DOORFDWLRQV WR WKH ULJKW SDQHOV GHFUHDVHG IURP VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO 7KHUH ZHUH QR DSSDUHQW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\V EHWZHHQ WKH ILUVW DQG

PAGE 73

VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH LPQWH[WXUHGVXUIDFHFRQGLWLRQ IRU WKLV VXEMHFW 0HDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DQG PHDQ WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQG IRU DOO VXEMHFWV DUH VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH 7KHUH ZHUH VRPH LQVWDQFHV LQ ZKLFK LQFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ GHFUHDVHV LQ WXUQDURXQG WLPH WKDW LV FRQGLWLRQV WKDW ZHUH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK TXLFNHU ZDONLQJ DOVR ZHUH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK TXLFNHU WXUQLQJ )RU H[DPSOH ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW ZHUH KLJKHU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWHf DQG WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQG ZHUH ORZHU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQGf XQGHU WKH r VKRUHOLQH WKDQ WKRVH VSHHGV DQG WXUQDURXQG WLPHV XQGHU WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH DQG VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQG UHVSHFWLYHO\f ,Q FRPSDULVRQ WR WKRVH YDOXHV XQGHU WKH rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQV ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU WKLV VXEMHFW ZHUH VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU DQG WXUQDURXQG WLPHV ZHUH VOLJKWO\ ORZHU XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZKHUHDV XQGHU WKH PP WH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ LH WKH ODVW WULDOV GXULQJ WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUHVf ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ZHUH VOLJKWO\ ORZHU DQG WLPHV SHU WXUQ ZHUH VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU IRU 6XEMHFW &RPSDULVRQV RI WKRVH GDWD IURP WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUHV WR HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ VKRZ D OHVV FRQVLVWHQW UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ TXLFNHU ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DQG TXLFNHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV )RU 6XEMHFW TXLFNHU ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VOLJKWO\ TXLFNHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV

PAGE 74

7DEOH 6XPPDU\ RI WKH PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DQG PHDQ WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQG IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG XQGHU HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW ([S &RQGLWLRQ ([SRVXUH :DONLQJ VSHHG 7LPHWXUQ r VW V V QG V V 6PRRWK VW V V QG V V PP VW V V QG V V PP VW V V QG V V r 6PRRWK PP PP VW QG VW QG VW QG VW QG V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V r VW V V QG V V 6PRRWK VW V V QG V V PP VW V V QG V V PP VW V V QG V V

PAGE 75

rVKRUHOLQH DQG PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFHFRQGLWLRQVf RU VOLJKWO\ VORZHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV VPRRWKVXUIDFH DQG PP WH[WXUHGVXUI DFH FRQGLWLRQVf 6LPLODU WR WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKLV VXEMHFW WKH GDWD LQ 7DEOH VKRZ WKDW IRU 6XEMHFW TXLFNHU ZDONLQJ VSHHGV XQGHU WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH rVKRUHOLQH DQG WKH PP WH[WXUHGVXUI DFH FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ TXLFNHU WXUQV )RU WKLV VXEMHFW VOLJKW UHGXFWLRQV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR rVKRUHOLQH DQG ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQf ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VOLJKWO\ VORZHU WXUQV ZKHUHDV ODUJHU UHGXFWLRQV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR rVKRUHOLQH DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQf ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ HYHQ VORZHU WXUQV +RZHYHU IRU 6XEMHFW UHGXFWLRQV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV EHWZHHQ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR VPRRWKVXUIDFH DQG ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VOLJKWO\ TXLFNHU WXUQV XQGHU WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV ,Q JHQHUDO FRPSDULVRQV RI PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DQG PHDQ WLPH SHU WXUQ ZLWKLQ HDFK FRQGLWLRQ VKRZ FRQVLVWHQW UHVXOWV XQGHU HDFK RI WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV LQFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ GHFUHDVHV LQ WLPHV SHU WXUQ rVKRUHOLQH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH DQG PP WH[WXUHGVXUI DFH FRQGLWLRQVf DQG GHFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ LQFUHDVHV LQ WLPHV SHU WXUQ VPRRWK VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQf

PAGE 76

,Q FRPSDULVRQ WR WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH r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

PAGE 77

RSWLPDO FRQGLWLRQV IRU XQVLJKWHG ZDONLQJ UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KHVH WZR FRQGLWLRQV VHUYHG DV FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQW 7KH UHVXOWV IURP WKH WZR FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH FRPSDUHG WR HDFK RWKHU DQG WR WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKH WZR WH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV LQ RUGHU WR H[DPLQH f WKH FRQWUROOLQJ HIIHFWV RI WKH WH[WXUHG VWLPXOL RQ PDLQWDLQLQJ D VWUDLJKW OLQH RI ZDONLQJ GLUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\f DQG f WKH OLPLWLQJ RU LPSHGLQJ IDFWRUV LI DQ\ RI WKH KHLJKWV RI WKHVH WH[WXUHG VWLPXOL RQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV 7LPH DOORFDWLRQV IURP WKH FHQWUDO SDQHO VHULHV XQGHU ERWK WH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH VOLJKWO\ ORZHU WKDQ WKRVH XQGHU WKH r VKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV FDQ SURGXFH GLUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\ IXQFWLRQDOO\ VLPLODU WR WKDW SURGXFHG E\ D rVKRUHOLQH 7KHVH UHVXOWV VXSSRUW WKRVH IURP SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV FDQ EH XVHG DV D FRQWLQXRXV VKRUHOLQH WR PDLQWDLQ VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ $LHOOR DQG 6WHLQIHOG %UDE\Q DQG 6WUHORZ %UDI 7HPSOHU f 7KH SUHVHQW VWXG\ GLIIHUV IURP SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV LQ DW OHDVW WZR ZD\V 7KH ILUVW GLIIHUHQFH LQYROYHV WKH PHWKRGV XVHG WR DVVHVV YDULRXV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI ZDONLQJ )RU H[DPSOH VRPH SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV KDYH H[DPLQHG VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ LQGLUHFWO\ t KDYH SURYLGHG RQO\ D URXJK GHVFULSWLRQ RI ZDONLQJ SHUIRUPDQFHV $LHOOR t 6WHLQIHOG %UDI 7HPSOHU f 1RQH RI WKHVH VWXGLHV SURYLGH

PAGE 78

WKH VWDQGDUG TXDQWLWDWLYH PHDVXUHV RI VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ WKDW DUH YLWDO WR FRQGXFWLQJ DQ DQDO\VLV DQG QHFHVVDU\ LQ RUGHU WR FRPSDUH UHVXOWV IURP GLIIHUHQW H[SHULPHQWV RQ VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ ,Q FRQWUDVW RWKHU VWXGLHV WKDW GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH XWLOLW\ RI FRPSXWHUL]HG PHDVXUHPHQW V\VWHPV WR DFTXLUH VWDQGDUG PHDVXUHV GLG QRW H[DPLQH WKH HIIHFWV RI YDULRXV ZDONLQJ VXUIDFHV RQ WKHVH PHDVXUHV %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ f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t 6WUHORZ f SULRU VWXGLHV KDG OLPLWHG WKH QXPEHU RI WULDOV XQGHU HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ WR QR PRUH WKDQ WZR RU WKUHH WULDOV FI 7HPSOHU f ,Q WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ DOO VXEMHFWV ZHUH H[SRVHG WR D PLQLPXP RI WHQ WULDOV PLQf XQGHU HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ ,Q DVVHVVLQJ WKH GHJUHH RI FRQWURO E\ YDULRXV VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV H[HUWHG RYHU ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU WKH QXPEHU RI WULDOV WR ZKLFK D VXEMHFW LV H[SRVHG LV FULWLFDO WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ LQGLFDWHV WKDW ZDONLQJ SHUIRUPDQFH FDQ FKDQJH

PAGE 79

ERWK ZLWKLQ H[SHULPHQWDO VHVVLRQV ZLWK UHSHDWHG WULDOV RU EHWZHHQ VHVVLRQV IROORZLQJ UHSHDWHG H[SRVXUH WR H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV 7KH FKDQJH LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ERWK ZLWKLQ DQG EHWZHHQ VHVVLRQf E\ VXEMHFWV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH YDULRXV H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV UDQJHG IURP VORZ DQG JUDGXDO EHKDYLRU WUDQVLWLRQV VXFK DV WKH SHUIRUPDQFH E\ 6XEMHFW GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQf WR DEUXSW DQG SURQRXQFHG FKDQJHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV 7KH DEUXSW FKDQJHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ DOO WKUHH VXEMHFWV XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV VHUYHV DV D JRRG H[DPSOH RI WKH OLPLWLQJ RU LPSHGLQJ IDFWRUV RI VRPH WH[WXUHG VWLPXOL DV ZHOO DV GHPRQVWUDWLQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI XVLQJ UHSHDWHG WULDOV RU H[SRVXUHV WR H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ 6XEMHFW LQFUHDVHG DEUXSWO\ EHWZHHQ WULDOV DQG WR OHYHOV FRPSDUDEOH WR WKRVH VSHHGV JHQHUDWHG XQGHU rVKRUHOLQH DQG XQGHU PPWH[WXUHG VXUI DFH FRQGLWLRQ 7KH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ VSHHGV EHWZHHQ WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH D IXQFWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW FDQH PRWLRQV XVHG E\ 6XEMHFW 7KHVH GLIIHUHQW FDQH PRWLRQV ZHUH QRW PHDVXUHG GLUHFWO\ EXW ZHUH LGHQWLILHG E\ WKH H[SHULPHQWHU YLHZLQJ WKH YLGHR UHFRUGLQJV RI H[SHULPHQWDO VHVVLRQVf 'XULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WKLV VXEMHFW ZDONHG ZLWK WKH FDQH H[WHQGHG DKHDG RI WKH ERG\ DQG WKH FDQH ZDV GUDJJHG IURP VLGHWRVLGH

PAGE 80

LQ DQ DUF PRWLRQ &RQVHTXHQWO\ 6XEMHFW IUHTXHQWO\ FDXJKW WKH FDQH WLS LQ EHWZHHQ WKH PP UDLVHG URXQG VWXG WKHUHE\ LPSHGLQJ ZDONLQJ DQG GHFUHDVLQJ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR PP 6XEMHFW FKDQJHG WKH VZHHSLQJ DUF PRWLRQ WR SODFLQJ WKH FDQH WLS WR D VWDWLRQDU\ SRVLWLRQ GLUHFWO\ LQ IURQW RI WKH ERG\ ZLWK WKH FDQH WLS LQ EHWZHHQ D FROXPQ RI UDLVHG VWXGV 7KLV FKDQJH UHVXOWHG LQ WKH FDQH WLS FDWFKLQJ OHVV IUHTXHQWO\ DQG LQFUHDVHG ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ WKLV VXEMHFW 7KH H[SHULPHQWHU QRWHG VLPLODU FDQH PRWLRQV E\ 6XEMHFWV DQG IURP YLHZLQJ WKH YLGHR UHFRUGLQJV IURP WKHLU H[SHULPHQWDO VHVVLRQV 'XULQJ WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ILUVW H[SRVXUHf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

PAGE 81

H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW KRZHYHU DOWHUQDWHG EHWZHHQ WKH VZHHSLQJ DUF PRWLRQ DQG SODFLQJ WKH FDQH WLS EHWZHHQ WZR FROXPQV RI VWXGV GXULQJ DOO VXEVHTXHQW H[SRVXUHV WR WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV 7KHVH UHVXOWV VXSSRUW WKRVH IURP SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW D VXUIDFH PDWHULDO XVHG IRU D VKRUHOLQH PD\ LPSURYH RQH DVSHFW RI ZDONLQJ GLUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\f EXW PD\ EHFRPH D SRWHQWLDO KD]DUG RU LPSHGH ZDONLQJ 7HPSOHU f 7KH SUHVHQW VWXG\ KRZHYHU GLIIHUV IURP WKH SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV WKDW GLG QRW H[DPLQH WKHVH WZR DVSHFWV RI ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ 7HPSOHU f GLG QRW LGHQWLI\ DQ\ VSHFLILF FDQH PRWLRQV QRU ZHUH WKHUH DQ\ LQGLFDWLRQV LQ WKHVH VWXGLHV WKDW FDQH PRWLRQ ZDV FRQWUROOHG DV DQ LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH $OWKRXJK QRW PHDVXUHG GLUHFWO\ LQ WKLV H[SHULPHQW WKH FDQH PRWLRQ XVHG E\ WKH VXEMHFWV DSSHDUV WR EH RQH RI VHYHUDO FULWLFDO YDULDEOHV WKDW GHWHUPLQHV WKH HIIHFW RI WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH KHLJKW DQG PRVW OLNHO\ WH[WXUH FRQILJXUDWLRQ DQG VKDSHf RQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV 2WKHU YDULDEOHV WKDW PD\ DIIHFW ZDONLQJ VSHHGV LQFOXGH WKH GHVLJQ DQG GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH FDQH WLS WKH DPRXQW RI SUHVVXUH H[HUWHG E\ WKH VXEMHFW RQ WKH FDQH WKH VL]H RI WKH DUF LQ WKH VZHHSLQJ PRWLRQ DQG VR RQ 2WKHU TXHVWLRQV FDQ EH DVNHG LQ UHJDUGV WR VWLPXOXV FRQWURO HIIHFWV E\ WKH YDULRXV VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV RQ ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU 2QH TXHVWLRQ UDLVHG E\ VRPH RI WKH UHVXOWV FRQFHUQV WKH SRVVLEOH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ DFWLYH ZDONLQJ

PAGE 82

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f WR DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf :KHQ WKH PP WH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ DQG ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW LQFUHDVHG KRZHYHU WKH LQFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV GLG QRW UHVXOW LQ WKLV VXEMHFW UHPDLQLQJ RQ WKH SDWKZD\ IRU D JUHDWHU SHULRG RI WLPH GXULQJ WKH WULDOV 2Q WKH FRQWUDU\ 6XEMHFW ZDONHG WKH OHQJWK RI WKH SDWKZD\ TXLFNHU DQG LQFUHDVHG WKH WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ SULPDULO\ EHFDXVH WKHUH ZHUH PRUH RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU WXUQLQJ DURXQG WR UHSHDW SDWKZD\ WUDYHUVDOV 7KH PHDQ WLPHV SHU WXUQ E\ 6XEMHFW XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WKDQ GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH

PAGE 83

$Q H[DPLQDWLRQ RI WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH 6XEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ UHYHDOV DQ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ GLIIHUHQW IURP WKDW IRU 6XEMHFW 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ IURP DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf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f WKDQ GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf $V ZDV GHVFULEHG IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG WKLV VXEMHFW DOVR ZDONHG D JUHDWHU QXPEHU RI SDWKZD\ WUDYHUVDOV GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUHG VXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQ DQG WKHUHIRUH LQFUHDVHG WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR WXUQDURXQG +RZHYHU WKHUH ZHUH RQO\ VOLJKW LQFUHDVHV LQ WLPHV RII WKH SDWKZD\ E\ WKLV VXEMHFW GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH EHFDXVH RI GHFUHDVHV LQ WLPHV SHU

PAGE 84

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

PAGE 85

LQFUHDVHG DV ZHOO $OWKRXJK WKH PHDQ WLPH SHU WXUQ IRU WKLV VXEMHFW LQFUHDVHG GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQ WR VHFRQGV SHU WXUQ WKHVH LQFUHDVHV FRXOG QRW DFFRXQW IRU WKH VXEVWDQWLDO LQFUHDVHV LQ WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI PHDQ WLPH RQ WKH OHIW FHQWHU DQG ULJKW SDQHOV IRU 6XEMHFW )LJXUH f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rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ WKLV PHDVXUH ZDV QRW FRQIRXQGHG E\ WKLV SUREOHP EHFDXVH WKH VXEMHFWV FRXOG QRW ZDON RQ WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW

PAGE 86

SDQHOV ZKHUHDV XQGHU WKH WH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV DQG LQ SDUWLFXODU XQGHU WKH VPRRWKVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV WKLV GHSHQGHQW PHDVXUH PD\ KDYH UHVXOWHG LQ HUURQHRXV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV RI ZDONLQJ SHUIRUPDQFHV 6LPLODUO\ EHFDXVH WKHVH YDOXHV ZHUH XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH PHDQ WLPH SHU WXUQ LH WLPH VSHQW RII WKH SDWKZD\ SHU WULDO GLYLGHG E\ WKH QXPEHU RI WXUQDURXQGV SHU WULDOf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f FDQ UHVXOW LQ D UHGXFWLRQ LQ

PAGE 87

WKH QXPEHU RI RQHPHWHU SDQHO OHQJWKV WUDYHUVHG ZLWKLQ WKH V WULDO )RU VXEMHFWV XQGHU WKH r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f WKHQ WKHVH UHVXOWV VXJJHVW WKDW WKHUH PD\ EH D UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG DQG WXUQDURXQG VSHHG +RZHYHU LW LV XQFOHDU DV WR ZKDW DVSHFW RI WXUQLQJ DURXQG LV DIIHFWHG XQGHU WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV )RU H[DPSOH VXEMHFWV FRXOG EH VSLQQLQJ DURXQG DW D IDVWHU VSHHG RU LI VSLQQLQJ DURXQG LV VRPHZKDW FRQVWDQW DFURVV H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV WKHQ GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WLPH SHU WXUQDURXQG PD\ EH D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH

PAGE 88

WLPH VXEMHFWV VSHQW HQJDJLQJ LQ RULHQWLQJ PRWLRQV ZLWK WKHLU FDQHV IROORZLQJ WKH VSLQ DQG SULRU WR VWHSSLQJ RQ WKH SDWKZD\ 7KH EHKDYLRUV LQYROYHG LQ WXUQLQJ DURXQG EHWZHHQ SDWKZD\ WUDYHUVDOV QHHG WR EH LGHQWLILHG PRUH SUHFLVHO\ DQG LI SRVVLEOH PHDVXUHG GLUHFWO\ $OWKRXJK WKH FRPSXWHUL]HG V\VWHP GHVFULEHG E\ 6WUHORZ %UDE\Q DQG &ODUN f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n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

PAGE 89

$GGLWLRQDOO\ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ VXEMHFWV VKRXOG EH ORZHU XQGHU FRPSOHWHO\ VPRRWK VXUIDFHV EHFDXVH WKLV GHVLJQ ZRXOG DOORZ IRU ODWHUDO PRYHPHQWV ZLWK JUHDWHU GLVWDQFHV DQG LQ JHQHUDO IHZHU SDQHO OHQJWKV WUDYHUVHG SHU WULDO 7KH DERYH FRQVLGHUDWLRQV VXJJHVW WKDW IXUWKHU UHVHDUFK RQ ZDONLQJ WKDW XWLOL]HV GHWHFWLRQ SDQHOV VKRXOG FRQWURO IRU WKH H[WUHPH HGJHV RI WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHOV DV ZHOO DV WKRVH HGJHV RQ HLWKHU HQG RI WKH SDWKZD\ 7KLV FDQ EH DFFRPSOLVKHG LQ DW OHDVW WZR ZD\V 0RUH DFU\OLF VKHHWV FDQ EH SODFHG RQ WKH IORRU QH[W WR WKH H[WUHPH HGJHV RI WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHOV VR WKDW WKH HQWLUH ZDONLQJ VXUIDFH LV RQH OHYHO $QRWKHU SRVVLEOH PRGLILFDWLRQ LV WR FRXQWHUVLQN WKH HQWLUH SDWKZD\ VR WKDW WKH HGJHV RI WKH SDWKZD\ ULVH WR WKH OHYHO RI WKH UHVW RI WKH IORRU VXUIDFH ,Q VXPPDU\ WKH UHVXOWV IURP ([SHULPHQW VXSSRUW SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK RQ VXSSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI HQYLURQPHQWV ZLWK WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV DV D PRELOLW\ DLG IRU YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV $ WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH RI HLWKHU PP RU PP FDQ SURGXFH VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ FRPSDUDEOH WR WKDW SURGXFHG ZKHQ D rVKRUHOLQH LV XVHG DQG FDQ SURGXFH D VSHHG RI ZDONLQJ FRPSDUDEOH WR D rVKRUHOLQH GHSHQGLQJ XSRQ WKH PDQQHU LQ ZKLFK WKH FDQH LV XVHG 7KHVH UHVXOWV FODULI\ WKH VXJJHVWLRQ E\ 7HPSOHU f WKDW WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV PD\ LPSHGH ZDONLQJ 7HPSOHU VXJJHVWV WKDW WH[WXUHG PDWHULDOV ZLWK KHLJKWV H[FHHGLQJ RQHKDOI LQFK DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PPf FDQ LPSHGH ZDONLQJ ,Q WKH SUHVHQW

PAGE 90

H[SHULPHQW RQO\ WKRVH FDQH PRYHPHQWV SHUSHQGLFXODU WR WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI ZDONLQJ LH D VZHHSLQJ DUFf UHVXOWHG LQ GHFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV 7KHVH DQHFGRWDO GHVFULSWLRQV RI FDQH PRWLRQV VXJJHVW WKDW GHSHQGLQJ RQ FDQH PRWLRQ XVHG E\ VXEMHFWV D WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH WKDW YDULHV E\ PP FDQ LPSHGH ZDONLQJ DQG GHFUHDVH ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ([SHULPHQW H[DPLQHG WKH HIIHFWV RI WZR FDQH PRWLRQV RQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG DQG VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ E\ PHDVXULQJ GLUHFWO\ WKHVH PRWLRQV WKDW ZHUH GHVFULEHG DQHFGRWDOO\ LQ WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQW

PAGE 91

(;3(5,0(17 7:2 ,QWURGXFWLRQ :KHQ IHZ RU QR VWUXFWXUHV GHPDUFDWH D GLVWLQFW WUDYHO SDWK LQ DQ RSHQ DUHD D FRQWLQXRXV WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH SODFHG RQ WKH ZDONLQJ VXUIDFH FDQ VHUYH DV D VWLPXOXV WR FRQWURO ZDONLQJ RI YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV ,Q ([SHULPHQW EOLQGIROGHG VXEMHFWV ZDONLQJ RQ D PP DQG PP WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH PDLQWDLQHG D VWUDLJKWOLQH RI ZDONLQJ VLPLODU WR WKDW PDLQWDLQHG XQGHU D FRQWLQXRXV rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFWV ZKR PDLQWDLQHG FRQWDFW EHWZHHQ WKH FDQH WLS DQG WKH WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH DOORFDWHG QHDUO\ DOO ZDONLQJ WLPH WR WKH WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH IURP WKH SDQHOV RQ ZKLFK WKH VXUIDFH ZDV SODFHG $OWKRXJK D WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH PD\ LQFUHDVH VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ VRPH RI WKH SK\VLFDO GLPHQVLRQV RU WKH GHVLJQ RI WH[WXUHG PDWHULDO PD\ LPSHGH ZDONLQJ VSHHG DQG FRXQWHUDFW WKH EHQHILW RI GLUHFWLRQDO FRQWLQXLW\ JDLQHG E\ XVLQJ WKH FRQWLQXRXV WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH 3UHYLRXV VWXGLHV VXJJHVW WKDW YDULDWLRQ LQ VXUIDFH PDWHULDOV H[FHHGLQJ PPf LQ KHLJKW FDQ EHFRPH D WULSSLQJ KD]DUG WR YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV RU FDQ LPSHGH IRUZDUG PRYHPHQW E\ FDWFKLQJ WKH FDQH WLS DW WKH SRLQW RI VXUIDFH YDULDWLRQ 7HPSOHU f 7KH UHVXOWV IURP ([SHULPHQW VXJJHVW WKDW UDLVHG UXEEHU

PAGE 92

VWXGV DV VPDOO DV PPf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f WKH SUHGRPLQDQW FDQH PHWKRG XVHG E\ VXEMHFWV ZDV PRVW VLPLODU WR WKH WRXFKGUDJ PHWKRG LQ ZKLFK WKH VXEMHFW KROGV WKH FDQH DW ZDLVW OHYHO LQ WKH FHQWHU RI WKH ERG\ DQG WKH FDQH LV H[WHQGHG VR WKDW WKH WLS LV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RQH IXOO VWHS LQ IURQW RI WKH VXEMHFW $V WKH VXEMHFW PRYHV IRUZDUG WKH FDQH LV GUDJJHG IURP VLGHWRVLGH LQ DQ DUF PRWLRQ SHUSHQGLFXODU WR WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDYHO VR WKDW WKH FDQH DOZD\V FKHFNV LQ DGYDQFH WKH DUHD LQ ZKLFK WKH VXEMHFW LV VWHSSLQJ $OOHQ *ULIILWK t 6KDZ +LOO t 3RQGHU 8VODQ t 0DQQLQJ f :KHQ D PPWH[WXUHG VXUIDFH ZDV SODFHG RQ WKH ZDONLQJ VXUIDFH VXEMHFWV DOWHUQDWHG

PAGE 93

EHWZHHQ WKH WRXFKGUDJ PHWKRG DQG D YDULDWLRQ RI WKH FDQH WUDLOLQJ PHWKRG LQ ZKLFK WKH FDQH WLS LV SODFHG EHWZHHQ WZR FROXPQV RI UDLVHG PP VWXGV DQG WKH WLS PRYHV IRUZDUG EHWZHHQ WKHVH WZR FROXPQV DV WKH VXEMHFW PRYHV IRUZDUG +LOO t 3RQGHU f 6RPH PRELOLW\LQVWUXFWLRQ PDQXDOV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH GHJUHH RI SUHVVXUH DSSOLHG WR WKH FDQH GXULQJ HLWKHU WKH GUDJ PRWLRQ RU GXULQJ IRUZDUG PRWLRQ PD\ EH FULWLFDO WR WKH GHJUHH RI VQDJJLQJ RU MDPPLQJ WKDW PD\ RFFXU EHWZHHQ WKH FDQH WLS DQG VXUIDFH YDULDWLRQV UHODWHG WR VXUIDFH PDWHULDOV RU VXUIDFH FRQILJXUDWLRQ $OOHQ *ULIILWK t 6KDZ +LOO t 3RQGHU 3HHO f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f V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ H[DPLQHG WKH WRXFKGUDJ PHWKRG DQG WKH FDQH WUDLOLQJ PHWKRG XQGHU WKH WZR WH[WXUHGVXUIDFH FRQGLWLRQV PPf DQG PPf WR GHWHUPLQH WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK UHGXFWLRQV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG ZHUH D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH FDQH PHWKRG XVHG 7KH UHVXOWV IURP

PAGE 94

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n FPf LQ KHLJKW DQG 6XEMHFW ZDV D \HDUROG IHPDOH DQG ZDV n FPf LQ KHLJKW $V LQ ([SHULPHQW QHLWKHU RI WKH QRYLFH VXEMHFWV KDG YLVXDO GHILFLWV QRU ZRUH FRUUHFWLYH OHQVHV DQG QRQH RI WKH VXEMHFWV KDG HYHU UHFHLYHG IRUPDO WUDLQLQJ LQ WKH DUHD RI RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ IRU YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV $OO VXEMHFWV ZHUH SUHSDUHG IRU HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO VHVVLRQ LQ WKH PDQQHU GHVFULEHG SUHYLRXVO\ LQ ([SHULPHQW

PAGE 95

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nV ERG\ DW ZDLVW OHYHOf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

PAGE 96

ZDV OHVV WKDQ WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ FRQWURO IRU WKH SHGRPHWHU ZDV DGMXVWHG DQG WKLV FDOLEUDWLRQ SURFHGXUH ZDV UHSHDWHG )ROORZLQJ WKLV ILUVW SKDVH RI WKH FDOLEUDWLRQ SURFHGXUH WKH WZR VWULQJV ZHUH PRYHG FORVHU WRJHWKHU LH FP DSDUW IURP RQH DQRWKHUf DQG WKH FDOLEUDWLRQ SURFHGXUH ZDV UHSHDWHG E\ WKH H[SHULPHQWHU ,I WKH FRXQW RQ WKH SHGRPHWHU H[FHHGHG WZR WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ FRQWURO IRU WKH SHGRPHWHU ZDV DGMXVWHG DQG WKLV SRUWLRQ RI WKH FDOLEUDWLRQ SURFHGXUH ZDV UHSHDWHG DW D GLVWDQFH RI FP LI WKH FRXQW ZDV WZR RU OHVV WKHQ WKH SHGRPHWHU ZDV UHPRYHG IURP WKH H[SHULPHQWHUn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

PAGE 97

3OHDVH VWHS XS WR WKH SDWK DQG VWRS ZKHQ \RX UHDFK WKH HGJH +ROG \RXU FDQH LQ IURQW RI \RX ZLWK WKH JULS DOLJQHG ZLWK WKH PLGVHFWLRQ RI \RXU DEGRPHQ 1RZ SODFH WKH WLS RQ WKH VXUIDFH GLUHFWO\ LQ IURQW RI \RX :KHQ VD\ \RX FDQ EHJLQ ZDQW \RX WR ZDON WR WKH HQG RI WKH SDWK DQG VWHS RII 7KHQ ZDQW \RX WR WXUQ DURXQG DQG ZDON EDFN WR WKH SODFH \RX DUH QRZ VWDQGLQJ DQG DJDLQ WXUQ DURXQG
PAGE 98

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f +RZHYHU DV PHQWLRQHG SUHYLRXVO\ WKH SHGRPHWHU ZDV VHQVLWLYH WR DEUXSW LQWHUUXSWLRQV RI PRWLRQ RU MROWV WR WKH DUP RU ZULVW $GGLWLRQDOO\ LQ FRPSDULVRQ WR WKH RWKHU WZR VXEMHFWV 6XEMHFW PD\ KDYH HPLWWHG D JUHDWHU QXPEHU RI DUP PRYHPHQWV IROORZLQJ WKH WXUQDURXQG DQG SULRU WR VWHSSLQJ RQWR WKH SDWKZD\ (LWKHU RI WKHVH WZR IDFWRUV RU D FRPELQDWLRQ RI

PAGE 99

7DEOH 6XPPDU\ RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV LQ RUGHUf IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG ZLWK WKH PHDQ QXPEHU RI VLGHWRVLGH DUP PRYHPHQWV SHU WULDO DQG WKH QXPEHU RI WULDOV XQGHU HDFK FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW ([SHULPHQWDO &RQGLWLRQ 0RYHPHQWV RI 7ULDOV PP f§ WRXFKGUDJ PP WRXFKGUDJ PP f§ FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP f§ FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP f§ WRXFKGUDJ PP f§ FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP f§ WRXFKGUDJ PP f FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP f§ WRXFKGUDJ PP f§ FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP WRXFKGUDJ PP f§ FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP f§ FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP f§ WRXFKGUDJ PP WRXFKGUDJ PP WRXFKGUDJ PP FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP f§ WRXFKGUDJ PP f§ FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP f§ FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP f§ WRXFKGUDJ PP FDQH WUDLOLQJ PP WRXFKGUDJ

PAGE 100

WKHVH IDFWRUV PD\ DFFRXQW IRU WKH H[FHVVLYH YDOXHV IRU DUP PRYHPHQWV UHFRUGHG XQGHU WKH WRXFKGUDJ FRQGLWLRQV IRU 6XEMHFW $OO VXEMHFWV ZHUH H[SRVHG WR H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV XQWLO WZR RI WKH GHSHQGHQW PHDVXUHV WLPH DOORFDWHG WR OHIW FHQWUDO DQG ULJKW SDQHOV VHULHV DQG ZDONLQJ VSHHGf DSSHDUHG VWDEOH IRU DW OHDVW ILYH FRQVHFXWLYH WULDOV $SSHQGL[ % FRQWDLQV VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VHV RI WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH GDWD SRLQWV RI ZDONLQJ VSHHG XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH VWDELOLW\ RI WKLV GHSHQGHQW PHDVXUH XQGHU HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQf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f FRQGLWLRQ 7LPH VSHQW RQ WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV E\ VXEMHFWV ZDV KLJK XQGHU ERWK WKH PP DQG PP

PAGE 101

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f 7KH DUURZV LQ WKH WRS SRUWLRQV RI )LJXUHV LQGLFDWH WKH ILUVW GDWD SRLQW RI WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH WULDOV XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH VWDELOLW\ XQGHU WKDW FRQGLWLRQ $V LQ ([SHULPHQW WKLV GDWD SRLQW DQG DOO SRLQWV WR WKH ULJKW RI LW FRUUHVSRQG WR WKH VXPPDU\ GDWD LQ WKH PLGGOH DQG ERWWRP SRUWLRQV RI WKDW VDPH ILJXUH :DONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW ZHUH ORZHVW XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ )LJXUH WRS SRUWLRQf 'XULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW ZDONHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH :KHQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG IRU WKLV VXEMHFW ZDONLQJ VSHHGV LQFUHDVHG WR DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH 8QGHU ERWK WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf DQG WKH PP WH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQV ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH DQG ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI WKH ILUVW WULDO GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR

PAGE 102

QXQWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ WKHUH ZHUH QR GLIIHUHQFHV LQ DYHUDJH ZDONLQJ VSHHGV EHWZHHQ ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUHV XQGHU WKHVH WZR FRQGLWLRQV 'XULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH QXQWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW GXULQJ WKH ILUVW WULDO ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH DQG RYHU WKH UHPDLQLQJ WULDOV ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU WKLV VXEMHFW LQFUHDVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV LQFUHDVHG IRU 6XEMHFW WR DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH )RU 6XEMHFW ZDONLQJ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFK GUDJf FRQGLWLRQ DYHUDJHG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO )LJXUH PLGGOH SRUWLRQf 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH FHQWUDO SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV GHFUHDVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG 6XEMHFW DOORFDWHG PRUH WLPH WR WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHOV $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH WKLV VXEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ GHFUHDVHG IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO )LJXUH ERWWRP SRUWLRQf 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ FHQWUDO SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV E\ 6XEMHFW GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DYHUDJHG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO :KHQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG IRU WKLV VXEMHFW FHQWUDO SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV GHFUHDVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV GHFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\ 6XEMHFW

PAGE 103

),*85( 6XPPDU\ GDWD IRU 6XEMHFW 7KH WRS SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH QXPEHU RI RQHPHWHU SDQHO OHQJWKV ZDONHG SHU PLQXWH IURP DOO WULDOV 7KH PLGGOH SRUWLRQ VKRZV PHDQ ZDONLQJ WLPH RQ SDQHOV 7KH ERWWRP SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH WKH VXEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\

PAGE 104

/8 &/ && FU /8 4 /8 8A && K 82 &' = /8 68%-(&7 PP PP PP 728&+'5$* &$1( 75$,/ 728&+'5$* ’ PP &$1( 75$,/ 727$/ 75,$/6 PP 728&+'5$* PP &$1( 75$,/ PP 728&+'5$* PP &$1( 75$,/ M PP PP PP PP 728&+'5$* &$1( 75$,/ 728&+'5$* &$1( 75$,/ III ‘ ‘ ‘ P ‘n‘9 ’ ‘‘ r‘ /E ’ F3 ‘ ’ FQ aQ P R 2 + ] P ; P f ; 2 f &' 2 & &f F P P 6800$5< 75,$/6

PAGE 105

LQFUHDVHG WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ IURP DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf WR DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf 'XULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW DOORFDWHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV DQG ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG FHQWUDO SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV LQFUHDVHG OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV DQG LQFUHDVHG WKH WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ FHQWUDO SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV IRU WKLV VXEMHFW GHFUHDVHG IURP DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf WR DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf DQG WKH WLPHV RII WKH SDWKZD\ GXULQJ ERWK H[SRVXUHV WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO 6LPLODU WR WKH UHVXOWV ZLWK 6XEMHFW ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW ZHUH ORZHVW XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFK GUDJf FRQGLWLRQ )LJXUH WRS SRUWLRQf 6XEMHFW ZDONHG DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ DQG DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH 2QFH D VWDEOH SHUIRUPDQFH XQGHU WKH PP WRXFKGUDJ FRQGLWLRQ ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG IRU 6XEMHFW ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DYHUDJHG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH GXULQJ ERWK WKH ILUVW DQG WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUHV WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ :DONLQJ VSHHGV E\ 6XEMHFW ZHUH FRPSDUDEOH XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf DQG WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQV

PAGE 106

),*85( 6XPPDU\ GDWD IRU 6XEMHFW 7KH WRS SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH QXPEHU RI RQHPHWHU SDQHO OHQJWKV ZDONHG SHU PLQXWH IURP DOO WULDOV 7KH PLGGOH SRUWLRQ VKRZV PHDQ ZDONLQJ WLPH RQ SDQHOV 7KH ERWWRP SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH WKH VXEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\

PAGE 107

7,0( 2)) 3$7+:$< 6(&f 0($1 7,0( 21 180%(5 2) 21(0(7(5 3$1(/ 3$1(/6 6(&f /(1*7+6 :$/.(' 3(5 0,1 68%-(&7 Q PP 728&+'5$* PP &$1( 75$,/ PP 728&+'5$* PP &$1( 75$,/ 727$/ 75,$/6 L PP 728&+'5$* PP &$1( 75$,/ PP 728&+'5$* PP &$1( 75$,/ PP 728&+'5$* ‘‘ 3 PP PP PP &$1( 75$,/ 728&+'5$* &$1( 75$,/ ? ? 6800$5< 75,$/6

PAGE 108

'XULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKHVH WZR FRQGLWLRQV 6XEMHFW ZDONHG DQ DYHUDJH RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH ZKHUHDV GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV WKLV VXEMHFWnV DYHUDJH ZDONLQJ VSHHG LQFUHDVHG WR PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW DOORFDWHG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV IRU ERWK WKH ILUVW DQG WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUHV )LJXUH PLGGOH SRUWLRQf 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR ERWK WKH OHIW SDQHOV DQG ULJKW SDQHOV GHFUHDVHG IURP DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH 6XEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ LQFUHDVHG IURP DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO )LJXUH ERWWRP SRUWLRQf 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ FHQWUDO SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV E\ 6XEMHFW ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH ILUVW DQG WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUHV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KLV LQFUHDVH LQ WLPH DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV E\ WKLV VXEMHFWV ZDV DFFRPSDQLHG E\ DQ LQFUHDVH LQ OHIW SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV D GHFUHDVH LQ ULJKW SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV DQG QR FKDQJH LQ WKH WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ :KHQ WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFK GUDJf FRQGLWLRQ ZDV LQWURGXFHG FHQWUDO SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV E\ 6XEMHFW ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DQG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKLV

PAGE 109

FRQGLWLRQ 8QGHU WKLV VDPH FRQGLWLRQ WKLV VXEMHFW LQFUHDVHG WLPH DOORFDWHG WR WKH OHIW SDQHOV IURP VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf DQG WR WKH ULJKW SDQHOV IURP VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf )LJXUH ERWWRP SRUWLRQf VKRZV D UHGXFWLRQ RI WLPH RII WKH WKH SDWKZD\ E\ 6XEMHFW XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO ILUVW H[SRVXUHf WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO VHFRQG H[SRVXUHf 'XULQJ ERWK H[SRVXUHV WR WKH WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ WKLV VXEMHFW DOORFDWHG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ OHIW SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQ E\ 6XEMHFW LQFUHDVHG IURP DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO DQG ULJKW SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV LQFUHDVHG IURP DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV WR VHFRQGV SHU WULDO 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH ,Q JHQHUDO WKH UHVXOWV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ 6XEMHFW DUH VLPLODU WR WKRVH UHVXOWV ZLWK 6XEMHFWV DQG KRZHYHU WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV EHWZHHQ WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ DQG WKH RWKHU H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV DUH PRUH SURQRXQFHG IRU WKLV VXEMHFW :DONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW ZHUH ORZHVW XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ )LJXUH WRS SRUWLRQf 'XULQJ WKH ILUVW

PAGE 110

H[SRVXUH WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ 6XEMHFW DYHUDJHG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH GXULQJ WKH ILUVW IRXU WULDOV DQG GXULQJ WKH UHPDLQLQJ WULDOV ZDONLQJ VSHHGV LQFUHDVHG WR DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH :KHQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG IRU WKLV VXEMHFW DYHUDJH ZDONLQJ VSHHGV LQFUHDVHG WR PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH 'XULQJ ERWK H[SRVXUHV WR WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ 6XEMHFW DYHUDJHG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ WKLV VXEMHFW GHFUHDVHG WR PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DQG LQFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\ WR PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH 'XULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW DYHUDJHG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH :KHQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG IRU 6XEMHFW ZDONLQJ VSHHGV LQFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\ WR DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH )RU 6XEMHFW ZDONLQJ WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV ZHUH KLJKHU WKDQ WKRVH WLPHV DOORFDWHG WR WKH OHIW DQG WKH ULJKW SDQHOV XQGHU DOO H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV $V VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH PLGGOH SRUWLRQf FHQWUDO SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQ E\ WKLV VXEMHFW LQFUHDVHG GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ DQG GHFUHDVHG GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR PPWH[WXUH WRXFK GUDJf PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf DQG PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQV ,Q PRVW LQVWDQFHV FKDQJHV LQ FHQWUDO

PAGE 111

),*85( 6XPPDU\ GDWD IRU 6XEMHFW 7KH WRS SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH QXPEHU RI RQHPHWHU SDQHO OHQJWKV ZDONHG SHU PLQXWH IURP DOO WULDOV 7KH PLGGOH SRUWLRQ VKRZV PHDQ ZDONLQJ WLPH RQ SDQHOV 7KH ERWWRP SRUWLRQ VKRZV WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH WKH VXEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\

PAGE 112

68%-(&7 WX &/ FF FF /8 4 /8 ] r R A *& K /8 2 &' ] /8 PP PP PP PP 728&+'5$* &$1( 75$,/ 728&+'5$* &$1( 75$,/ Y FIR 727$/ 75,$/6 Rr A/8 \ FR PP 728&+'5$* PP &$1( 75$,/ PP 728&+'5$* PP &$1( 75$,/ &' /8 = /8 r / PP 728&+'5$* 2 /8 &' ; &/ // // 2 /8 ,; PP &$1( 75$,/ PP 728&+'5$* PP &$1( 75$,/ Â’ Â’ Â’ 6800$5< 75,$/6

PAGE 113

SDQHO WLPH DOORFDWLRQV E\ WKLV VXEMHFW ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ FKDQJHV LQ WLPH DOORFDWLRQV WR HLWKHU WKH OHIW SDQHOV RQO\ XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ WKH ULJKW SDQHOV RQO\ XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ RU ERWK OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHOV XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf DQG XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQV 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH )LJXUH ERWWRP SRUWLRQf :KHQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG IRU WKLV VXEMHFW WLPHV RII WKH SDWKZD\ LQFUHDVHG WR DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO 7KH DYHUDJH WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ E\ 6XEMHFW ZDV ORZHVW GXULQJ ERWK WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf DQG WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf WR WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ ,Q FRQWUDVW 6XEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ D JUHDWHU DPRXQW RI WLPH XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ 'XULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKLV FRQGLWLRQ WKLV VXEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO :KHQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG WKH DYHUDJH DPRXQW RI WLPH WKLV VXEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ GHFUHDVHG WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WULDO 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW ZDV RII WKH SDWKZD\ DQ DYHUDJH RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DQG VHFRQGV SHU WULDO GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH

PAGE 114

0HDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DQG PHDQ WLPH SHU WXUQDURXQG IRU DOO VXEMHFWV XQGHU HDFK FRQGLWLRQ DUH VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH 6XEMHFW WKHUH GLG QRW DSSHDU WR EH DQ\ FRQVLVWHQW )RU UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ FKDQJHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DQG FKDQJHV LQ WLPH SHU WXUQDURXQG )RU H[DPSOH PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV XQGHU PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf DQG PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WKH VDPH PHWHUV SHU PLQXWHf KRZHYHU IRU WKLV VXEMHFW PHDQ WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQG ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQG DQG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQG XQGHU WKHVH WZR FRQGLWLRQV UHVSHFWLYHO\ )RU 6XEMHFW PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ZHUH ORZHVW GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFK GUDJf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f DQG XQGHU PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQV 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ 6XEMHFW GHFUHDVHG EHWZHHQ WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUHV

PAGE 115

7DEOH 6XPPDU\ RI WKH PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DQG PHDQ WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQG IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG XQGHU HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW ([S &RQGLWLRQ ([SRVXUH :DONLQJ VSHHG 7LPHWXUQ PP WRXFKGUDJ VW V V QG V V PP FDQH WUDLO VW V V QG V V PP WRXFKGUDJ VW V V QG V V PP FDQH WUDLO VW V V QG V V PP WRXFKGUDJ VW V V QG V V PP FDQH WUDLO VW V V QG V V PP WRXFKGUDJ VW V V QG V V PP FDQH WUDLO VW V V QG V V PP WRXFKGUDJ VW V V QG V V PP FDQH WUDLO VW V V QG V V PP WRXFKGUDJ VW V V QG V V PP FDQH WUDLO VW V V QG V V

PAGE 116

EXW WKHVH GHFUHDVHV ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VOLJKWO\ TXLFNHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ VOLJKW LQFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV EHWZHHQ WKH ILUVW DQG WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUHV E\ WKLV VXEMHFW ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VORZHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV ,Q FRQWUDVW WR WKLV VXEMHFW WKH GDWD LQ 7DEOH VKRZ PRUH FRQVLVWHQW UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ FKDQJHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV DQG FKDQJHV LQ WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQG IRU 6XEMHFW )RU WKLV VXEMHFW VORZHU ZDONLQJ VSHHGV GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf DQG WKH PP WH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VORZHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQG SHU WXUQDURXQG DQG VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQG UHVSHFWLYHO\f :KHQ WKHVH WZR FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH UHLQVWDWHG IRU WKLV VXEMHFW ZDONLQJ VSHHGV LQFUHDVHG DQG WXUQDURXQG WLPHV GHFUHDVHG 6LPLODU WR WKHVH UHVXOWV ZKHQ WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG IRU 6XEMHFW PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV LQFUHDVHG IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH WR PHWHUV SHU PLQXWHf DQG PHDQ WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQG GHFUHDVHG IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQG WR VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQGf 5HLQVWDWLQJ WKH PPWH[WXUHG WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ IRU WKLV VXEMHFW UHVXOWHG LQ D VOLJKW UHGXFWLRQ LQ PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH WR PHWHUV SHU PLQXWHf DQG LQ LQFUHDVHV LQ PHDQ WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQG WR VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQGf

PAGE 117

6LPLODU WR WKH UHVXOWV IURP 6XEMHFW VORZHU ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VORZHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV )RU H[DPSOH XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH DQG PHDQ WXUQDURXQG WLPHV ZHUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQG )RU 6XEMHFW LQFUHDVHV LQ PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH QRW DFFRPSDQLHG E\ GHFUHDVHV LQ PHDQ WXUQDURXQG WLPHV KRZHYHU DV PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU WKLV VXEMHFW LQFUHDVHG IXUWKHU XQGHU PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf DQG PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQV UHDFKLQJ YDOXHV EHWZHHQ DQG PHWHUV SHU PLQXWH PHDQ WXUQDURXQG WLPHV GHFUHDVHG WR EHWZHHQ VHFRQGV DQG VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQG 6LPLODU WR WKRVH UHVXOWV IURP 6XEMHFW D FRPSDULVRQ RI WKRVH GDWD IURP ILUVW DQG VHFRQG H[SRVXUHV WR H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV VKRZ WKDW LQFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ WKLV VXEMHFW ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ GHFUHDVHV LQ WXUQDURXQG WLPHV XQGHU WKH PP WH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf DQG XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQV ZKHUHDV LQFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ LQFUHDVHV LQ WXUQDURXQG WLPHV 8QGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ VOLJKW GHFUHDVHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ 6XEMHFW ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VOLJKW LQFUHDVHV LQ WXUQDURXQG WLPHV

PAGE 118

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f FRQGLWLRQ 7KH UHVXOWV IURP WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQW H[WHQG WKRVH UHVXOWV IURP ([SHULPHQW DV ZHOO DV WKRVH IURP RWKHU VWXGLHV VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV FDQ EH XVHG DV D FRQWLQXRXV VKRUHOLQH WR PDLQWDLQ VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ $LHOOR t 6WHLQIHOG %UDE\Q t 6WUHORZ %UDI 7HPSOHU f 8QGHU DOO FRQGLWLRQV H[DPLQHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQW VXEMHFWV JHQHUDOO\ PDLQWDLQHG D VWUDLJKW OLQH RI ZDONLQJ

PAGE 119

:LWK WKH IHZ H[FHSWLRQV QRWHG LQ WKH UHVXOWV IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG TXLFNHU PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV E\ WKHVH WZR VXEMHFWV ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG TXLFNHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV LH GHFUHDVHV LQ PHDQ WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQGf )RU H[DPSOH PHDQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IRU 6XEMHFW )LJXUH f ZHUH ORZHVW XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf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f DQG XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH ERWK KLJKHU WKDQ WKRVH VSHHGV XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ DQG UHVXOWHG LQ QHDUO\ WZLFH WKH QXPEHU RI WXUQDURXQGV $OWKRXJK WKLV VXEMHFW VSHQW PRUH WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ XQGHU ERWK WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf DQG WKH PPWH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQV WXUQDURXQG WLPHV ZHUH PXFK TXLFNHU XQGHU WKHVH WZR FRQGLWLRQV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQ DQG VHFRQGV SHU WXUQ UHVSHFWLYHO\f WKDQ WKRVH XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH

PAGE 120

WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQf 7KXV XQGHU ERWK WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf DQG WKH PP WH[WXUH FDQH WUDLOf FRQGLWLRQV 6XEMHFW WUDYHUVHG WKH SDWKZD\ DQG FRPSOHWHG WKH WXUQDURXQGV TXLFNHU WKDQ XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ )RU 6XEMHFW TXLFNHU ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ZHUH QRW DFFRPSDQLHG FRQVLVWHQWO\ ZLWK TXLFNHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV DQG VORZHU ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ZHUH VHOGRP DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VORZHU WXUQDURXQG WLPHV 2QH LQWHUHVWLQJ UHVXOW IRU WKLV VXEMHFW XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ LQYROYHV WKH H[WHQVLYH DPRXQW RI WLPH DOORFDWHG WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH LH LQ H[FHVV RI VHFRQGV SHU WULDOf 8QGHU WKLV FRQGLWLRQ 6XEMHFW ZDONHG VORZO\ WKHUHE\ ORZHULQJ WKH QXPEHU RI RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU WXUQLQJ DURXQG ZLWKLQ D WULDOf DOORFDWHG PRUH WLPH WR WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV DQG VSHQW OHVV WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ :KHQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV UHLQVWDWHG 6XEMHFW LQFUHDVHG ZDONLQJ VSHHGV WKHUHE\ LQFUHDVLQJ WKH QXPEHU RI RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU WXUQLQJ DURXQG IURP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WXUQV SHU WULDO WR DERXW WXUQV SHU WULDOf DQG VSHQW PRUH WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ $OWKRXJK WKLV VXEMHFW VSHQW PRUH WLPH RII WKH SDWKZD\ GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH PHDQ WLPHV SHU WXUQDURXQG GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH ZHUH VOLJKWO\ ORZHU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQGf WKDQ WKRVH GXULQJ WKH ILUVW H[SRVXUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHFRQGV SHU WXUQDURXQGf 7KLV DSSDUHQW GHVFUHSHQF\ PD\ EH GXH WR WKH SUREOHP ZLWK WKH VLPXOWDQHRXV

PAGE 121

DFWLYDWLRQV RI WKH UXQQLQJ WLPH PHWHUV GHVFULEHG LQ WKH GLVFXVVLRQ VHFWLRQ IURP ([SHULPHQW 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf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f XQGHU WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQV 7KHVH YDULDEOHV ZHUH QRW GLUHFWO\ PHDVXUHG EXW REVHUYHG E\ WKH H[SHULPHQWHU YLHZLQJ WKH YLGHR UHFRUGLQJV RI H[SHULPHQWDO VHVVLRQVf 'XULQJ WKH VHFRQG H[SRVXUH WR WKH PPWH[WXUH WRXFKGUDJf FRQGLWLRQ ERWK 6XEMHFWV DQG DSSHDUHG WR EH

PAGE 122

ZDONLQJ RQ WKH ODWHUDO SRUWLRQV RI WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV DQG JUHDWHU SRUWLRQV RI WKH WRXFKGUDJ PRWLRQ ZHUH FURVVLQJ RQWR WKH VPRRWK VXUIDFHV FRYHULQJ WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHO VHULHV 7KLV SHUIRUPDQFH PD\ KDYH UHVXOWHG LQ D JUHDWHU QXPEHU RI OHIW SDQHOV DQG ULJKW SDQHOV WLPHU DFWLYDWLRQV DV ZHOO DV PRUH VLPXOWDQHRXV DFWLYDWLRQV RI HLWKHU OHIW SDQHOV RU ULJKW SDQHOV WLPHU ZLWK WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV WLPHU ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKH PHDVXUHPHQW SUREOHPV UHVXOWLQJ IURP VLPXOWDQHRXV DFWLYDWLRQV RI WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV WLPHU ZLWK WKH OHIW SDQHOV RU ULJKW SDQHOV WLPHU WKHUH PD\ KDYH EHHQ DQ RYHUDOO UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH FDQH WLS MDPPLQJ LQ WKH PP WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH RQ WKH FHQWUDO SDQHOV EHFDXVH D SRUWLRQ RI WKH WRXFKGUDJ PRWLRQ ZDV LQ FRQWDFW ZLWK WKH VPRRWK VXUIDFHV RQ WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHO VHULHV )XUWKHU UHVHDUFK VKRXOG EH GLUHFWHG DW H[DPLQLQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI WKHVH YDULDEOHV RQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG DQG WXUQDURXQG VSHHG DQG ERWK RI WKHVH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV VKRXOG EH PHDVXUHG GLUHFWO\ DQG LQGHSHQGHQWO\ RI RQH DQRWKHU $ PRUH GLUHFW DQG SUHFLVH PHDVXUH RI WXUQDURXQG WLPH PD\ UHVXOW LQ PRUH HIIHFWLYH GHVFULSWLRQV RI EHKDYLRUV HPLWWHG SULRU WR WKH VWDUW RI ZDONLQJ ZKLFK DSSHDU WR EH XQGHU WKH FRQWURO RI WKH VWLPXOL RQ RU DURXQG WKH HQGV RI WKH SDWKZD\ 7KH WHUP RULHQWDWLRQ PD\ EH GHILQHG RSHUDWLRQDOO\ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKHVH EHKDYLRUV ,Q JHQHUDO WKHVH UHVXOWV VXSSRUW WKRVH IURP SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV VXJJHVWLQJ WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV PD\ LPSHGH ZDONLQJ

PAGE 123

,OO 7HPSOHU f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f RQO\ UHSRUWHG WKH UHVXOW RI WKH VWXG\ DQG GLG QRW SURYLGH PHWKRGRORJLFDO RU SURFHGXUDO LQIRUPDWLRQ QRU GLG WKH DXWKRU GHVFULEH RWKHU LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV VXFK DV WKH W\SH RI FDQH PHWKRG XVHG WKH W\SH RI WH[WXUH XVHG WKH FRQILJXUDWLRQ RI WKH WH[WXUHG VWLPXOL DQG WKH UDQJHV RI WKH KHLJKWV RI VWLPXOL H[DPLQHG 7KHVH YDULDEOHV DUH DPRQJ WKH PDQ\ WKDW VKRXOG EH GHVFULEHG DQG H[DPLQHG LQ UHVHDUFK RQ WKH HIIHFWV RI WH[WXUHG VWLPXOL RQ ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKLV H[SHULPHQW VXJJHVW f H[SHULPHQWV FRQGXFWHG WR DGGUHVV WKH SRWHQWLDO EHQHILFLDO HIIHFWV RI WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV RQ VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ VKRXOG ZKHQHYHU SRVVLEOH PHDVXUH ZDONLQJ VSHHG GLUHFWO\ DQG VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ DQG f H[SHULPHQWV FRQGXFWHG WR DGGUHVV WKH HIIHFW RI VSHFLILF UHVSRQVH WRSRJUDSKLHV LQYROYHG LQ

PAGE 124

FDQH PRWLRQV VKRXOG XWLOL]H PHDVXUHV RI VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ DQG ZDONLQJ VSHHG ,Q ([SHULPHQW FKDQJLQJ WKH KHLJKW RI WKH WH[WXUHG VXUIDFH IURP PP WR PP SURGXFHG WRSRJUDSKLF FKDQJHV LQ FDQH PRWLRQ E\ VXEMHFWV WKDW DFFRPSDQLHG FKDQJHV LQ ZDONLQJ VSHHGV ,Q WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQW FDQH PRWLRQ ZDV H[DPLQHG GLUHFWO\ LQ DQ HIIRUW WR EULQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI FDQH PHWKRGV RQ ZDONLQJ XQGHU H[SHULPHQWDO FRQWURO ,JQRULQJ GHWHUPLQDQWV RI WRSRJUDSKLFDO YDULDWLRQ PD\ SURGXFH SHUVLVWHQW YDULDELOLW\ DQG FRQWULEXWH WR XQUHOLDEOH H[SHULPHQWDO HIIHFWV &DQH PRWLRQ DQG RWKHU SRVVLEOH WRSRJUDSKLF YDULDEOHV VKRXOG EH H[DPLQHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ DQG ZDONLQJ VSHHG 7KHVH WZR DVSHFWV DQG PHDVXUHV RI ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU FDQ EH XVHIXO WR SUDFWLWLRQHUV ZKR PXVW DGYLVH YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV DV WR ZKLFK FDQH PRWLRQ ZLOO EH WKH PRVW HIIHFWLYH ZLWK UHJDUGV WR WKHVH EHKDYLRUV DQG WKH VSHFLILF VHW RI HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV XQGHU ZKLFK WKHVH PRWLRQV ZLOO EH HIIHFWLYH 'LUHFW PHDVXUHV RI FDQH PRWLRQ QHHG WR EH GHYHORSHG WR LPSURYH WKH DFFXUDF\ RI PHDVXUHV WKDW UHODWH FDQH PRWLRQ WR ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU 7KH SHGRPHWHU XVHG WR UHFRUG WKH FXPXODWLYH QXPEHU RI VLGHWRVLGH DUP PRYHPHQWV ZDV VXIILFLHQW IRU WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQW WR FRQILUP WKH IDFW WKDW D VXEVWDQWLDO DPRXQW RI DUP PRYHPHQWV ZHUH HPLWWHG E\ DOO VXEMHFWV XQGHU WKH WRXFKGUDJ FRQGLWLRQV LQ FRPSDULVRQ WR WKRVH QXPEHUV HPLWWHG XQGHU WKH FDQH WUDLO FRQGLWLRQV

PAGE 125

KRZHYHU WKLV SHGRPHWHU LV IDU WRR FUXGH DQ LQVWUXPHQW WR XVH IRU PRUH ILQH JUDLQHG DQDO\VHV RI FDQH PRWLRQV HIIHFWV RQ ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU $V GHVFULEHG SUHYLRXVO\ WKH SHGRPHWHU ZDV VXVFHSWLEOH WR DFWLYDWLRQ XSRQ VXGGHQ LPSDFW 2WKHU LQVWUXPHQWV FRXOG EH GHYHORSHG WKDW PLJKW EH PRUH HIIHFWLYH WKDQ WKH SHGRPHWHU LH D FRUGOHVV OLJKWZHLJKW JRQLRPHWHU WKDW SURYLGHV FXPXODWLYH FRXQWV RI DUP PRWLRQV ZLWK DQJOHV WKDW H[FHHG VRPH SUHVSHFLILHG YDOXHf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

PAGE 126

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f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t 0DQQLQJ f 7KXV FDQH WUDLOLQJ ZLWKRXW VRPH RWKHU DFFRPSDQ\LQJ RU DOWHUQDWLQJ PHWKRG ZRXOG KDYH OLPLWHG

PAGE 127

XWLOLW\ LI QRW SRVVLEOH GHWULPHQWDO HIIHFWV LQ D VHWWLQJ WKDW LV OHVV FRQWUROOHG WKDQ WKDW RI WKH ODERUDWRU\ 8VODQ f 7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI VWDQGDUGL]HG PHWKRGV IRU GHVFULELQJ DQG H[DPLQLQJ WKRVH ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU WKDW DUH LQYROYHG LQ RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ LV QHFHVVDU\ LQ RUGHU WR DGHTXDWHO\ DQG REMHFWLYHO\ DGGUHVV H[SHULPHQWDO TXHVWLRQV DERXW VDIH DQG HIILFLHQW ZDONLQJ LQ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV ERWK ZLWKLQ DQG EH\RQG WKH ODERUDWRU\ VHWWLQJ )RU H[DPSOH 3HHO f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

PAGE 128

*(1(5$/ ',6&866,21 7KH RYHUDOO UHVXOWV IURP ([SHULPHQWV DQG VXJJHVW f PP DQG PPWH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV SODFHG LQ RSHQ DUHDV FDQ EH XVHG DV D FRQWLQXRXV VKRUHOLQH E\ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV IRU PDLQWHQDQFH RI VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ f SK\VLFDO GLPHQVLRQV RI WH[WXUHG VXUIDFHV PD\ LPSHGH ZDONLQJ VSHHG GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH FDQH PHWKRG HPSOR\HG DQG f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t 6WUHORZ 6WUHORZ %UDE\Q t &ODUN f PD\ EH XVHG WR DGGUHVV IXUWKHU H[SHULPHQWDO TXHVWLRQV RQ WKH HIIHFWV RI RWKHU HQYLURQPHQWDO HYHQWV RQ ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRUV 7KHUH ZHUH VHYHUDO PHDVXUHV WKDW ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ WKHVH H[SHULPHQWV WKDW PD\ KDYH EHHQ FRQIRXQGHG E\ WKH PDQQHU LQ ZKLFK WKH YDOXHV ZHUH GHULYHG RU E\ WKH PHWKRGV XVHG WR

PAGE 129

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f KRZ VLJQLILFDQW LV WKH

PAGE 130

GLVUXSWLRQ LQ WKH VSHHG RI ZDONLQJ f KRZ PXFK GLVWDQFH VHSDUDWHV WKH LQGLYLGXDO IURP WKH REVWDFOH EHIRUH D VDIH DGMXVWPHQW LV PDGH f ZKHWKHU D UHODWLRQVKLS H[LVW EHWZHHQ YDULDEOHV ZDONLQJ VSHHG DQG GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ LQGLYLGXDO DQG REMHFWf PDQLSXODWHG LQ TXHVWLRQV DQG DERYH f RQFH DQ REVWDFOH LV FLUFXPYHQWHG KRZ LV VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ UHHVWDEOLVKHG DQG f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

PAGE 131

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f DQG SURSHU FDQH PRYHPHQW WHFKQLTXHV FDQ SURYLGH DXGLWRU\ VWLPXOL DFWLYDWHG E\ SKRWREHDPf DV D FRQVHTXHQFH IRU YHHULQJ RU IRU FDQH PRWLRQV WKDW FURVV EH\RQG VSHFLILF ERXQGDULHV VXFK DV WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SDQHO VHULHVf $XGLWRU\ IHHGEDFN XVHG LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK LQGRRU PRELOLW\ WUDLQLQJ KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR GHFUHDVH WKH DPRXQW RI WLPH UHTXLUHG E\ YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV WR GHPRQVWUDWH SURSHU RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ VNLOOV 3HHO f

PAGE 132

7KH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQWDO TXHVWLRQV ZHUH GLUHFWHG WRZDUGV D VSHFLILF SRSXODWLRQ FRPSOHWHO\ YLVXDOO\ UHVWULFWHG LQGLYLGXDOVf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f VXJJHVW VSDWLDO EHKDYLRU LV

PAGE 133

QRW RQO\ FRQGLWLRQHG E\ ZD\V LQ ZKLFK WKH ERG\ LV FRQVWUXFWHG DQG PRYHV EXW DOVR E\ WKH QDWXUH RI WKH SK\VLFDO ZRUOG LQ ZKLFK WKH ERG\ PRYHV 2WKHU QDWXUDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI JURXQG VXUIDFHV DQG WHUUDLQV WKDW DIIHFW ZDONLQJ FDQ EH DUUDQJHG H[SHULPHQWDOO\ 7KH HIIHFWV RI LQFOLQHV DQG GHFOLQHV LQ WKH VXUIDFH RQ ZDONLQJ VSHHG DQG VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJ FDQ EH H[DPLQHG LQ D PDQQHU LQ ZKLFK WKH VORSH RI HLWKHU RI WKH WZR YDULDEOHV FDQ EH PDQLSXODWHG V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ 0LOOHU f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

PAGE 134

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f DQG ZDONLQJ KDV EHHQ UHVWULFWHG WR DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKHVH VWLPXOL RQ WZR GLIIHUHQW FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI ZDONLQJ $QRWKHU W\SH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO HYHQW ZKLFK KDV UHFHLYHG IDU OHVV H[SHULPHQWDO LQTXLU\ LV WKH FRQVHTXHQW HYHQWVf RI ZDONLQJ )URP DQ RSHUDQWFRQGLWLRQLQJ SHUVSHFWLYH DQ DQDO\VLV RI FRQVHTXHQW HYHQWV RQ ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU LV FULWLFDO WR DOO GLVFXVVLRQV UHJDUGLQJ GLVFULPLQDWLYH FRQWURO RI DQWHFHGHQW VWLPXOL VWDWHPHQWV UHJDUGLQJ WKH PDQQHU LQ ZKLFK WKHVH DQWHFHGHQW VWLPXOL FRQWURO EHKDYLRU DUH LQFRPSOHWH LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI D WKRURXJK DQDO\VLV RI WKH FRQVHTXHQW HYHQWV WKDW RFFXU LQ WKHLU SUHVHQFH &DWDQLD f VXJJHVWV WKDW LQ GHDOLQJ ZLWK GLVFULPLQDEOH VWLPXOL DQG GLVFULPLQDEOH SURSHUWLHV RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW FRPSOH[ UHODWLRQDO IHDWXUHV RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW FRXOG VHUYH DV GLVFULPLQDWLYH VWLPXOL DQG

PAGE 135

LQ DOO FDVHV LQ ZKLFK VWLPXOL DUH LQYROYHG LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR WUHDW WKHVH VWLPXOL LQ WHUPV RI WKHLU UHODWLRQV WR UHVSRQVHV DQG FRQVHTXHQFHV 'LVFULPLQDWLYH FRQWURO VD\V &DWDQLD LV EDVHG XSRQ WKH WKUHHWHUP FRQWLQJHQF\ VWLPXOXVUHVSRQVHFRQVHTXHQFH 1RQH RI WKHVH WHUPV LV VLJQLILFDQW LQ LVRODWLRQ S f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n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

PAGE 136

GHPRQVWUDWLRQ PDUFK LOOXVWUDWH KRZ FRQWLQJHQFLHV RI UHLQIRUFHPHQW FDQ EH DUUDQJHG H[SOLFLWO\ EDVHG RQ ZDONLQJ 7KH DUUDQJHPHQW DQG GLUHFW PDQLSXODWLRQ RI VSHFLILF FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU ZDONLQJ LQ WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQWV ZRXOG KDYH HQKDQFHG WKH JHQHUDOLW\ RI WKHVH UHVSRQVH FODVVHV DV ZHOO DV EURDGHQ WKH UDQJH RI YDULDEOHV DYDLODEOH WR H[SHULPHQWDO PDQLSXODWLRQ WKDW XOWLPDWHO\ DUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU SURGXFLQJ VDIH DQG HIILFLHQW ZDONLQJ FI -RKQVWRQ t 3HQQ\SDFNHU f ,Q WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQWV WKH LQVWUXFWLRQV SURYLGHG WR WKH VXEMHFWV H[HUWHG SULPDU\ FRQWURO RYHU WKHLU SHUIRUPDQFH DQG WKH YDU\LQJ GHJUHH RI FRQWURO SUHVXPDEO\ GHSHQGHG XSRQ HDFK VXEMHFWn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t 6KLPRII f $ EULHI UHYLHZ RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH RQ LQVWUXFWLRQDO FRQWURO RI EHKDYLRU LOOXVWUDWHV WKH HQRUPRXV FRPSOH[LW\ LQYROYHG LQ LQVWUXFWLRQDO FRQWURO DQG WKH SDXFLW\ RI V\VWHPDWLF UHVHDUFK RQ LQVWUXFWLRQDO GHVLJQ ,Q RQH UHYLHZ RQ LQVWUXFWLRQDO

PAGE 137

SUDFWLFHV UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV DUH VXJJHVWHG WR H[SHULPHQWHUV WR SURYLGH D FRPSOHWH UHSRUW RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO LQVWUXFWLRQV DQG WR UHVWULFW LQVWUXFWLRQV WR LQWURGXFWRU\ RULHQWLQJ VWDWHPHQWV GHVLJQHG WR HQJHQGHU LQLWLDO UHVSRQGLQJ VR WKDW UHVSRQVH GLPHQVLRQV WKDW DUH SDUWLFXODUO\ FULWLFDO WR WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DUH OHIW XQLQVWUXFWHG DQG WKXV GHSHQGHQW RQ LQWHUDFWLRQ ZLWK H[SHULPHQWDO FRQWLQJHQFLHV S f 3LOJULP t -RKQVWRQ f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f§ WKH WRXFKGUDJ PHWKRG $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKHUH ZHUH QR SURYLVLRQV LQ WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQW WR JXDUDQWHH WKDW VXEMHFWV GLG QRW GLVFXVV H[SHULPHQWDO H[SHULHQFHV ZLWK HDFK RWKHU 7KHVH IDFWRUV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH UROH RI YHUEDO EHKDYLRU DQG WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ GHVFULEHG LQ WKH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQf PXVW EH LQFOXGHG LQ D WKRURXJK DQDO\VLV

PAGE 138

RI ZDONLQJ 7KLV IDFW VKRXOG EH DSSDUHQW WR PRELOLW\ VSHFLDOLVWV ZKR KDYH HQFRXQWHUHG WKH FRPPRQ GLIILFXOW\ RI WHDFKLQJ ORQJ FDQH PHWKRGV LQ PRELOLW\ WUDLQLQJ DQG WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK YHUEDO LQVWUXFWLRQ E\ WKH LQVWUXFWRU LQWHUDFWV LQ PDQ\ FDVHV FRPSHWHVf ZLWK WKH WDFWLOH DQG SURSULRFHSWLYH VWLPXOL JHQHUDWHG E\ FDQH PRWLRQV DQG FDQH FRQWDFWV ZLWK WKH HQYLURQPHQW 3HHO f ,Q OLJKW RI WKH IDFW WKDW DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH WKUHHWHUP FRQWLQJHQF\ LV DEVHQW LQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ DQ\ GLVFXVVLRQ RI ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRUV DV RSHUDQW EHKDYLRU VWULFWO\ RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKHVH H[SHULPHQWV LV VSHFXODWLYH +RZHYHU WKH ZHDOWK RI H[SHULPHQWDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO OLWHUDWXUH RQ RSHUDQW EHKDYLRU DQG WKH HSLVWHPRORJ\ RI UDGLFDO EHKDYLRULVP FI 0DODJRGL 3HQQ\SDFNHU 6NLQQHU f KDV VXIILFLHQW VFRSH DQG JHQHUDOLW\ WR H[WHQG WR VRPH DVSHFWV RI ZDONLQJ %DHU :ROI t 5LVOH\ f 7KXV WKH UHPDLQGHU RI WKLV GLVFXVVLRQ ZLOO IRFXV RQ WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV DQG LVVXHV WKDW DULVH IURP YLHZLQJ ZDONLQJ DV RSHUDQW EHKDYLRU &RQWLQJHQFLHV RI 5HLQIRUFHPHQW DQG :DONLQJ ([SHULPHQWV WKDW FRPSDUH WKH HIIHFWV RI WZR RU PRUH W\SHV RI DQWHFHGHQWVWLPXOL RQ ZDONLQJ PD\ KDYH VRPH LPPHGLDWH DQG LPSRUWDQW LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU SUDFWLWLRQHUV DQG UHVHDUFKHUV LQWHUHVWHG LQ GHOLYHULQJ VWDWHRIWKHDUW VHUYLFHV WR YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOV +RZHYHU VHH

PAGE 139

-RKQVWRQ IRU D GLVFXVVLRQ RQ OLPLWDWLRQV RI FRPSDULVRQ VWXGLHVf 6WLOO PRUH JHQHUDO TXHVWLRQV QHHG WR EH DGGUHVVHG :KDW LV WKH QDWXUH RI ZDONLQJ" +RZ LV ZDONLQJ DFTXLUHG" +RZ GR DQWHFHGHQW VWLPXOL LQ DQ\ IRUPf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

PAGE 140

H[DPLQHG DW D PLFUROHYHO RI DQDO\VLV LH WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI HDFK VWHS GLVFULPLQDWLYH FRQWURO RI YLVXDO DXGLWRU\ WDFWLOH RU SURSULRFHSWLYH VWLPXOL DQG VR RQf DV ZHOO DV DW D PRODUOHYHO RI DQDO\VLV LH VRFLDO HFRQRPLF DQG FXOWXUDO YDULDEOHVf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

PAGE 141

EHKDYLRU DV WKH GLUHFW DQDO\VLV RI WKH ZDONLQJ LQGLYLGXDO 7KH DQDO\VLV PD\ EHJLQ ZLWK GUDZLQJ D GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ UHLQIRUFLQJ HLWKHU RI WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI ZDONLQJ ZDONLQJ VSHHG DQG VWUDLJKWOLQH ZDONLQJf GLUHFWO\ RU LQGLUHFWO\ &DWDQLD f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nV HDUO\ VXFFHVVHV 6XEWOH FRQWLQJHQFLHV RI UHLQIRUFHPHQW IRU DQ RSHUDQW UHVSRQVH FDUU\LQJ D JODVV RI ZDWHU ZLWKRXW VSLOOLQJf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

PAGE 142

FORVHV LQ ILYH PLQXWHV 7KH VSHFLILFDWLRQV RI UHLQIRUFHPHQW FRQWLQJHQFLHV IRU ZDONLQJ WKDW DUH HVWDEOLVKHG E\ WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ LPSOLFLW RU H[SOLFLWf PXVW EH FRQVLGHUHG LQ D WKRURXJK DQDO\VLV RI RSHUDQW ZDONLQJ )XUWKHUPRUH VRPH RI WKHVH TXHVWLRQ FDQ EH DGGUHVVHG H[SHULPHQWDOO\ XVLQJ WKH PHDVXUHPHQW V\VWHP GHVFULEHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW H[SHULPHQWV 7KH UROH RI WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ LQ VKDSLQJ YHUEDO EHKDYLRU UHODWHG WR ZDONLQJ RI VLJKWHG DQG QRQVLJKWHG SHUVRQV UHTXLUHV IXUWKHU HODERUDWLRQ SDUWLFXODUO\ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR SULYDWH HYHQWV ,Q WKH FDVH RI VLJKWHG XQLPSDLUHGf SHUVRQV WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ DUUDQJHV FRQGLWLRQV WR GLIIHUHQWLDOO\ UHLQIRUFH YHUEDO UHVSRQVHV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU LH ZDONLQJ VWUDLJKWf RIWHQ EDVHG RQ VLPSOH VWLPXOXV GLPHQVLRQ VXFK DV ZDONLQJ SDUDOOHO WR D VWUDLJKW REMHFW $GGLWLRQDOO\ YHUEDO UHVSRQVHV WKDW GHVFULEH ZDONLQJ LQ UHIHUHQFH WR VRPH REMHFW ZDONLQJWRWKHOHIWRIf FDQ EH GLIIHUHQWLDOO\ UHLQIRUFHG E\ WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH UHODWLRQDO IHDWXUHV EHWZHHQ SURSHUWLHV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO HYHQWV &DWDQLD f ,Q ERWK RI WKH VLWXDWLRQV DERYH WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ DFKLHYHV VXFFHVV LQ HVWDEOLVKLQJ VHOI GHVFULSWLYH YHUEDO EHKDYLRU E\ LQGLYLGXDOV DERXW ZDONLQJ EHFDXVH WKH REMHFWV LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW DQG WKH UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ REMHFWV DQG ZDONLQJ E\ DQ LQGLYLGXDO DUH SXEOLF YLVXDOO\f IRU ERWK WKH VLJKWHG LQGLYLGXDO DQG WKH YHUEDO

PAGE 143

FRPPXQLW\ +RZHYHU WKH VLWXDWLRQ FKDQJHV ZKHQ DQ LQGLYLGXDO EHFRPHV YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG 7KH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ GRHV QRW PDLQWDLQ WKH GHJUHH RI FRQWURO LQ HVWDEOLVKLQJ YHUEDO EHKDYLRU DV LW GLG LQ WKH VLWXDWLRQ DERYH DQG WKH GHJUHH RI FRQWURO WKDW LV HVWDEOLVKHG GHSHQGV QRW RQO\ RQ WKH H[WHQW RI WKH YLVXDO LPSDLUPHQW GHJUHH RI YLVXDO VWLPXODWLRQf EXW DOVR WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK RWKHU SXEOLF VWLPXOL DUH FRQVSLFXRXV WR ERWK WKH LQGLYLGXDO DQG WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ ,W PD\ EH DUJXHG WKDW DOWKRXJK RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ VSHFLDOLVWV WHDFK HIIHFWLYH ZDONLQJ VNLOOV PRELOLW\f WKH UROH RI WKH UHVHDUFKHU LV QRW MXVW WR VWXG\ WKH HIIHFWV RI DQWHFHGHQW VWLPXOL RQ ZDONLQJ EHKDYLRU EXW DOVR WR H[DPLQH ZD\V LQ ZKLFK DQWHFHGHQW VWLPXOL FDQ EH DUUDQJHG VR WKDW WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ KDV PRUH FRQVSLFXRXV VWLPXOL LH WDFWLOHf WR XVH WR HVWDEOLVK PRUH HIIHFWLYH FRQWLQJHQFLHV RYHU YHUEDO EHKDYLRU RU RULHQWDWLRQ EHKDYLRUf 6NLQQHU f GHVFULEHV D VLPLODU VLWXDWLRQ LQ ZKLFK WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ FDQ JHQHUDWH YHUEDO EHKDYLRU LQ UHVSRQVH WR SULYDWH VWLPXOL &RQVLGHU IRU H[DPSOH D EOLQG PDQ ZKR OHDUQV WKH QDPHV RI D WUD\IXO RI REMHFWV IURP D WHDFKHU ZKR LGHQWLILHV WKH REMHFWV E\ VLJKW 7KH UHLQIRUFHPHQWV DUH VXSSOLHG RU ZLWKKHOG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH FRQWLQJHQF\ EHWZHHQ WKH EOLQG PDQnV UHVSRQVHV DQG WKH WHDFKHUnV YLVXDO VWLPXOL EXW WKH UHVSRQVHV DUH FRQWUROOHG ZKROO\ E\ WDFWXDO VWLPXOL $ VDWLVIDFWRU\ YHUEDO V\VWHP UHVXOWV IURP WKH IDFW WKDW WKH YLVXDO DQG WDFWXDO VWLPXOL UHPDLQ FORVHO\ FRQQHFWHG S f

PAGE 144

7KLV SURFHVV RI DUUDQJLQJ FRQWLQJHQFLHV IRU YHUEDO EHKDYLRU KDV LPSRUWDQW LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU SUDFWLWLRQHUV DQG UHVHDUFKHUV LQ WKH ILHOG RI RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ 7KHUH LV D OLPLWDWLRQ RQ DFFHVVLELOLW\ WR HYHQWV WKDW DUH QRW VR FORVHO\ FRQQHFWHG DQG KHQFH D OLPLWDWLRQ RQ WKH DFFXUDF\ RI WKH YHUEDO EHKDYLRU RI WKH YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDO DOO LQGLYLGXDOV IRU WKDW PDWWHUf ZLWK UHVSHFW WR GHVFULELQJ SULYDWH VHQVDWLRQV WDFWLOH SURSULRFHSWLYH LQWHURFHSWLYHf DQG GHVFULELQJ UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH LQGLYLGXDOnV SRVLWLRQ ZKLOH PRYLQJ LQ VSDFH 3LFN f SRLQWV RXW D GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WZR W\SHV RI WDFWLOH SHUFHSWLRQ 2QH W\SH RI SHUFHSWLRQ WDFWXDO LV FRQVLGHUHG D PRUH SDVVLYH SURFHVV LQ ZKLFK VWLPXODWLRQ LV LPSRVHG RQ D SHUVRQn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r

PAGE 145

VKRUHOLQHV DQG VR RQ $ SHUVRQnV YHUEDO UHVSRQVHV WR JURVV GHYLDWLRQV IURP ZDONLQJ D VWUDLJKW OLQH PD\ EH D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ EDVLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQDO FRQWURO DQG UHLQIRUFHPHQW RQ WKH FRQVSLFXRXV PDQLIHVWDWLRQV EXW WKH LQGLYLGXDO SUHVXPDEO\ DFTXLUHV WKH UHVSRQVH LQ FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK D ZHDOWK RI DGGLWLRQDO SURSULRFHSWLYH VWLPXOL 6NLQQHU S f 7KH WHUP RULHQWDWLRQ LPSOLHV WKH SHUVRQ NQRZV WKH HQYLURQPHQW QRW RQO\ LQ WKH VHQVH WKDW VDIH DQG HIIHFWLYH ZDONLQJ LV HPLWWHG EXW DOVR WKDW WKH SHUVRQ FDQ WDON DERXW KLV RU KHU RZQ EHKDYLRU 7KH PDLQ SUREOHP WKDW UHVHDUFKHUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV RI RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ PXVW IDFH LV WKH VDPH SUREOHP EHKDYLRULVWV KDYH KDG WR IDFH :KDW LV SDUWLFXODUO\ FOHDU DQG IDPLOLDU WR WKH SRWHQWLDO NQRZHU YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQGLYLGXDOf PD\ EH VWUDQJH DQG GLVWDQW WR WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ UHVHDUFKHUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV LQ RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\f UHVSRQVLEOH IRU KLV RU KHU NQRZLQJ 6NLQQHU f 7KH DQDO\VLV RI WKH WKUHHWHUP FRQWLQJHQF\ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR ZDONLQJ PD\ H[SDQG WKH UDQJH RI EHKDYLRUDO SKHQRPHQD DGGUHVVHG E\ D VFLHQFH RI EHKDYLRU 7KH EHQHILWV RI WKLV H[SDQVLRQ FDQ EH IDYRUDEOH IRU WKRVH LQGLYLGXDOV LQ WKH ILHOG RI RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ DV ZHOO EHFDXVH WKLV DQDO\VLV PD\ EHJLQ WR FODULI\ PDQ\ RI WKH FRPSOH[ LVVXHV WKDW KDYH KLQGHUHG WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ HIIHFWLYH PHWKRGRORJ\ IRU H[DPLQLQJ ZDONLQJ DQG WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI D FRQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUN IRU LQWHUSUHWLQJ H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV

PAGE 146

2QH RI WKHVH LVVXHV FRQFHUQV WKH UROH RI VXEMHFWLYH H[SHULHQFH RI YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHUVRQV )RU H[DPSOH 0HWWOHU f VXJJHVWV ,Q XQGHUVWDQGLQJ KRZ DQ LQGLYLGXDO OHDUQV DQG SUDFWLFHV D VNLOO ZH PXVW FRQVLGHU LQGLYLGXDO VXEMHFWLYH HOHPHQWV RI SHUVRQDO VNLOO SHUVRQDO MXGJPHQW DQG SHUVRQDO NQRZOHGJHf§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f ,W LV WUXH WKDW KXPDQ DFWLRQ LV QRW DGHTXDWHO\ GHVFULEHG LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH UROH RI WKH YHUEDO FRPPXQLW\ $Q RSHUDQWEHKDYLRU SHUVSHFWLYH PD\ SURYLGH D PRUH WKRURXJKJRLQJ DQDO\VLV RI ZDONLQJ WKDW LV LQFOXVLYH RI SULYDWH HYHQWV DV ZHOO DV SXEOLF HYHQWV ZLWKRXW DEDQGRQLQJ WKH SUDFWLFH RI GHVFULELQJ HYHQWV LQ REMHFWLYH RU QDWXUDOLVWLF WHUPV 6NLQQHU f ,Q VXPPDU\ WKH VFLHQFH RI EHKDYLRU KDV PDGH VLJQLILFDQW VWULGHV LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI RSHUDQW EHKDYLRU DQG LQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ KXPDQ EHKDYLRU LQ JHQHUDO $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH FRQFHSWXDO DQDO\VLV RI YHUEDO EHKDYLRU DQG SULYDWH HYHQWV KDV KDG D VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFW LQ SURPRWLQJ D VFLHQWLILF XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI LQGLYLGXDO EHKDYLRU FXOWXUDO

PAGE 147

SURFHVVHV DQG KXPDQ DIIDLUV LQ JHQHUDO 6NLQQHU f ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH ILHOG RI RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ KDV EHHQ VORZ LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI HIIHFWLYH VFLHQWLILF XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI ZDONLQJ $GRSWLQJ VLPLODU PHWKRGRORJLHV WR WKRVH XVHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI RSHUDQW EHKDYLRU PD\ FKDQJH WKH UDWH DW ZKLFK QHZ HIIHFWLYH WHFKQRORJLHV HPHUJH EXW LW LV DUJXHG KHUH WKDW WKH VFLHQWLILF VWXG\ RI ZDONLQJ ZLOO GHYHORS RQO\ LI HIIHFWLYH YHUEDO EHKDYLRU E\ UHVHDUFKHUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV HPHUJHV DV ZHOO ,ZDWD f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

PAGE 148

5()(5(1&(6 $LHOOR t 6WHLQIHOG ( f $FFHVVLEOH EXLOGLQJV IRU SHRSOH ZLWK VHYHUH YLVXDO LPSDLUPHQWV :DVKLQJWRQ & 86 'HSDUWPHQW RI +RXVLQJ DQG 8UEDQ 'HYHORSPHQW 2IILFH RI 3ROLF\ 'HYHORSPHQW DQG 5HVHDUFK $OOHQ : *ULIILWK $ t 6KDZ & f 2ULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ %HKDYLRUDO REMHFWLYHV IRU WHDFKLQJ ROGHU DGYHQWLWLRXVO\ EOLQG LQGLYLGXDOV 1HZ
PAGE 149

&DWDQLD $ & f /HDUQLQJ QG (GLWLRQf (QJOHZRRG &OLIIV 1< 3UHQWLFH+DOO &DWDQLD $ & 0DWWKHZV % $ t 6KLPRII ( f ,QVWUXFWHG YHUVXV VKDSHG KXPDQ YHUEDO EHKDYLRU ,QWHUDFWLRQ DQG QRQYHUEDO UHVSRQGLQJ -RXUQDO RI WKH ([SHULPHQWDO $QDO\VLV RI %HKDYLRU &KDQH\ & t .HSKDUW 1 f 0RWRULF DLGV WR SHUFHSWXDO WUDLQLQJ &ROXPEXV 2+ &KDUOHV ( 0HUULOO 3XEOLVKLQJ &RPSDQ\ &UDWW\ % ,NLGD 1 0DUWLQ 0 -HQQHWW & t 0RUULV 0 f 0RYHPHQW DFWLYLWLHV PRWRU DELOLW\ DQG WKH HGXFDWLRQ RI FKLOGUHQ 6SULQJILHOG ,/ &KDUOHV & 7KRPDV 'RGGV $ &DUWHU t +RZDUWK & f ,PSURYLQJ REMHFWLYH PHDVXUHV RI PRELOLW\ -RXUQDO RI 9LVXDO ,PSDLUPHQW DQG %OLQGQHVV (OLDV + f $ WDFWLOH JXLGHVWULS IRU EOLQG SHGHVWULDQV 7KH QHZ RXWORRN IRU WKH EOLQG f )RXONH ( f 7KH SHUFHSWXDO EDVLV IRU PRELOLW\ $PHULFDQ )RXQGDWLRQ IRU WKH %OLQG 5HVHDUFK %XOOHWLQ )RXONH ( f :KDW D WKHRU\ RI PRELOLW\ VKRXOG FRQVLGHU 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH WK $QQXDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ 0RELOLW\ %LUPLQJKDP (QJODQG *HVHOO $ ,OJ ) t %XOOLV f 9LVLRQ ,WV GHYHORSPHQW LQ LQIDQW DQG FKLOG 1HZ
PAGE 150

+RZDUG t 7HPSOHWRQ : f +XPDQ VSDWLDO RULHQWDWLRQ 1HZ
PAGE 151

3DQHO RI YLVXDO LPSDLUPHQW DQG LWV UHKDELOLWDWLRQ f 9LVLRQ UHVHDUFK $ QDWLRQDO SODQ >:9ROXPH 3DUW f 1,+ 3XEOLFDWLRQ 1R f :DVKLQJWRQ & 8 6 'HSDUWPHQW RI +HDOWK DQG +XPDQ 6HUYLFHV 3XEOLF +HDOWK 6HUYLFH 1DWLRQDO ,QVWLWXWH RI +HDOWK 3HHO & ) f 3V\FKRORJLFDO DVSHFWV RI ORQJ FDQH RULHQWDWLRQ WUDLQLQJ $PHULFDQ )RXQGDWLRQ IRU WKH %OLQG 5HVHDUFK %XOOHWLQ 3LFN + / f 7DFWXDO DQG KDSWLF SHUFHSWLRQ ,Q 5 :HOVK t % %ODVFK (GVf )RXQGDWLRQV RI RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ SS f§f 1HZ
PAGE 152

6WUHORZ ( 5 %UDE\Q $ t &ODUN 5 6 f $SSDUDWXV IRU PHDVXULQJ DQG UHFRUGLQJ SDWK YHORFLW\ DQG GLUHFWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI KXPDQ ORFRPRWLRQ %HKDYLRU 5HVHDUFK 0HWKRGV DQG ,QVWUXPHQWDWLRQ 7HPSOHU f 3URYLVLRQV IRU HOGHUO\ DQG KDQGLFDSSHG SHGHVWULDQV 9RO B 7KH GHYHORSPHQW DQG HYDOXDWLRQ RI FRXQWHUPHDVXUHV :DVKLQJWRQ & 8 6 'HSDUWPHQW RI 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 7HPSOHU f *URXQG DQG IORRU VXUIDFH WUHDWPHQWV :DVKLQJWRQ & 7HFKQLFDO SDSHU SUHSDUHG IRU $FFHVV $PHULFD 1DWLRQDO &HQWHU IRU D %DUULHU )UHH (QYLURQPHQW 6 $UFKLWHFWXUDO DQG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ %DUULHUV &RPSOLDQFH %RDUG :DVKLQJWRQ & 7HPSOHU t =LPULQJ & f $FFHVVLELOLW\ IRU SHUVRQV ZLWK YLVXDO LPSDLUPHQWV :DVKLQJWRQ & 1DWLRQDO &HQWHU IRU D %DUULHU )UHH (QYLURQPHQW 7RR]H f ,QGHSHQGHQFH WUDLQLQJ IRU YLVXDOO\ KDQGLFDSSHG FKLOGUHQ %DOWLPRUH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3DUN 3UHVV 8VODQ 0 0 f 5HDFWLRQV RI DQ t 0 VSHFLDOLVW -RXUQDO RI 9LVXDO ,PSDLUPHQW DQG %OLQGQHVV f 8VODQ 0 0 t 0DQQLQJ 3 f $ JUDSKLF DQDO\VLV RI WRXFK WHFKQLTXH VDIHW\ $PHULFDQ )RXQGDWLRQ IRU WKH %OLQG 5HVHDUFK %XOOHWLQ :DUGHOO f (QYLURQPHQWDO PRGLILFDWLRQV ,Q 5 :HOVK t % %ODVFK (GVf )RXQGDWLRQV RI RULHQWDWLRQ DQG PRELOLW\ SS f 1HZ
PAGE 153

=HOD]R 3 5 =HOD]R 1 $ t .ROE 6 f LQ WKH QHZERUQ 6FLHQFH :DONLQJ

PAGE 154

$33(1',; $ ,Q ([SHULPHQWV DQG WKH FULWHULD WR FKDQJH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH EDVHG RQ GDWD IRU ZDONLQJ VSHHG DSSHDULQJ VWDEOH DFFRUGLQJ WR YLVXDO LQVSHFWLRQf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rVKRUHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ WKLV VXEMHFW ZDV H[SRVHG WR D WRWDO RI WULDOV EXW RQO\ WKH ODVW WULDOV ZHUH XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH VWDELOLW\ 7ULDOV WKH ODVW WULDOV XQGHU WKLV FRQGLWLRQf DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV WKH ; VFRUHV DQG ZDONLQJ VSHHGV IURP WKHVH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WULDOV DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV WKH < VFRUHV 7KH = VFRUHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG IRU ERWK WKH ; DQG < VFRUHV DQG WKH FURVVSURGXFW RI WKHVH

PAGE 155

= VFRUHV LV WKH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW Uf :KHQ U WKH WRWDO YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH < VFRUHV ZDONLQJ VSHHGf LV H[SODLQHG E\ WKH ; VFRUHV DFVHQGLQJ WULDOVf ZKHUHDV ZKHQ U WKH WRWDO YDULDWLRQ LV HTXDO WR WKH XQH[SODLQHG YDULDWLRQ WKDW LV QRQH RI WKH WRWDO YDULDWLRQ KDV EHHQ DFFRXQWHG IRU 7KXV ZKHQ WKH ; VFRUHV DUH XQFRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH < VFRUHV WKHQ HYHQ ZKHQ ; VFRUHV DUH NQRZQ WKH EHVWILWWLQJ VWUDLJKW OLQH WXUQV RXW WR EH KRUL]RQWDO )RU 6XEMHFW WKLV FRUUHODWLRQ ZDV 6LJQLILFDQFH WHVWV IRU DOO FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG LQ RUGHU WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKH ; YDULDEOHV DFVHQGLQJ WULDOVf DQG WKH < YDULDEOHV ZDONLQJ VSHHGf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

PAGE 156

YDOXHV LQ WKH W GLVWULEXWLRQ )RU H[DPSOH WKH W YDOXH LQ WKH H[DPSOH IRU 6XEMHFW ZDV WKH YDOXH 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKLV W YDOXH KDV GHJUHHV RI IUHHGRP $W WKH VLJQLILFDQFH OHYHO WKH YDOXH RI ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW 7KHUHIRUH WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV ZKLFK ZDV WKDW WKH FRUUHODWLRQ LQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ ZDV ]HUR FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG )RU DOO W YDOXHV FDOFXODWHG IRU 6XEMHFWV LQ ([SHULPHQWV DQG WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV ZDV QHYHU UHMHFWHG 7KHUHIRUH DQ\ WUHQGV REVHUYHG IURP YLVXDO LQVSHFWLRQ FDQQRW EH DFFRXQWHG IRU E\ WKH DFVHQGLQJ QXPEHU RI WULDOV 7KH IROORZLQJ WDEOHV VKRZ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKHVH WHVWLQJ SURFHGXUHV

PAGE 157

([SHULPHQW 6XPPDU\ RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG ZLWK WKH QXPEHU RI WULDOV XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH VWDELOLW\ WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV DQG W YDOXHV IRU WKRVH WULDOV 6XEMHFW ([S &RQGLWLRQ ([SRVXUH RI 7ULDOV U Wr r VW QG 6PRRWK VW QG PP VW QG PP VW QG r VW QG 6PRRWK VW QG PP VW QG PP VW QG r VW QG 6PRRWK VW QG PP VW QG PP VW QG r $ $ L A rS GI Q f

PAGE 158

([SHULPHQW 6XPPDU\ RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV IRU 6XEMHFWV DQG ZLWK WKH QXPEHU RI WULDOV XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH VWDELOLW\ WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV DQG W YDOXHV IRU WKRVH WULDOV 6XEMHFW ([S &RQGLWLRQ ([SRVXUH RI 7ULDOV U Wr PP WRXFKGUDJ VW QG PP FDQH WUDLO VW QG PP WRXFKGUDJ VW QG PP FDQH WUDLO VW QG PP WRXFKGUDJ VW QG PP FDQH WUDLO VW QG PP WRXFKGUDJ VW QG PP FDQH WUDLO VW QG PP WRXFKGUDJ VW QG PP FDQH WUDLO VW QG PP WRXFKGUDJ VW QG PP FDQH WUDLO VW QG rS GI Q f

PAGE 159

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

PAGE 160

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& ‘ %ULDQ $ ,ZDWD 3URIHVVRU RI 3V\FKRORJ\ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK 3URIHVVRU RI 3V\FKRORJ\ ,

PAGE 161

, FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRURI 3KLORVRSK\ HQU\ 3HQQ\SDFNHU RI 3V\FKRORJ\ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU F :LOOLDP 3URIHVVRU RI (GXFDWLR 7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ ZDV VXEPLWWHG WR WKH *UDGXDWH )DFXOW\ RI WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI 3V\FKRORJ\ LQ WKH &ROOHJH RI /LEHUDO $UWV DQG 6FLHQFHV DQG WR WKH *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO DQG ZDV DFFHSWHG DV SDUWLDO IXOILOOPHQW RI WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ 0D\ 'HDQ *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO

PAGE 162

81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$


xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID EGNTVVNN9_2LEJR2 INGEST_TIME 2011-08-29T15:52:43Z PACKAGE AA00002077_00001
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES